Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 256)

[niki550525]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.583.655 von motz1 am 09.09.12 10:48:23

Hallo @
an diesem schönen sonnigen Sontag möchte ich mal nichts über aoi und deren Charttechnik schreiben, sondern.....
....allen die hier etwas zur Information von aoi beitragen und allen, die sich die Mühe machen und gute Recherchen hier reinstellen, mal ein großes DANKE sagen
Schönes WE

[motz1]

Ich habe mir heute mal die Präsentation in Ruhe anschauen können.

Zu Paipai ist auf Slide 17 noch zu lesen "spud in 2H/2012". Die Erklärung dass die Bohrung aufgrund des höheren Risikos etwas unter der Decke gehalten werden soll macht für mich Sinn. Möglicherweise ist die gesamte Präsentation aber auch einfach auf die Termine von KH abgestimmt und er hat dann die Möglickkeit den Paipai-Spud als "Plausch aus dem Nähkästchen" zu verwenden.


Was für mich auch interessant ist sind die gezielten Management-Erweiterungen. Für mich zum ersten mal aufgetaucht ist:

Alex Budden,
Vice President External Relations
Before joining Africa Oil Alex Budden served as a Diplomat for the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office for 21 years. His international experience has seen him serve in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Russia, the Balkans and North America. Throughout his career he has focused on international security, conflict, governance, human rights, energy and environment issues and specializes in government & security relations, complex stakeholder management and strategic communications work.

Man scheint sich Lundin-seitig auch auf politischer Seite auf die zukünftige Dimension von AOI vorzubereiten, u.a. Stichwort Länderrisiko.
In Kombination mit Jim Philips als 'Company's key Government liaison' scheint man dem Thema eine gewisse Bedeutung beizumessen.

Hier ein paar google-Infos:
"[...] Alex’s last posting was as Political Counsellor in Kenya. He was there for three years including during the recent political crisis and violence following 2007 Presidential Elections. [...]"
http://ukincanada.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=PressR&id=1224498…

Wohl kein Grünschnabel...

[gabbo62]

Short-Bestand um > 100k gesunken.

Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
192,796 31/Aug/2012
299,600 15/Aug/2012
293,049 31/Jul/2012

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…

[motz1]

Schöner Beitrag von Cannacord von Donnerstag...

.............

Africa Oil* (AOI : TSX-V : $9.23), Net Change: 0.32, % Change: 3.59%, Volume: 931,127

The Green Lantern.

Africa Oil was solidly in the green, handily outperforming the overall market as investor’s seem to be
taking a position in anticipation the of results from it’s recently spud Twiga South-1 exploration well, located in onshore Block
13T in Kenya. On August 21, the company announced that it had spud the well, which has a planned total depth of 3,114 m and
targets the same structural trend and reservoirs as the recent Ngamia-1 oil discovery 23 km to the south. Drilling at Twiga
South-1 in Kenya continues and initial results are due in September or October. The well is operated by Tullow Oil who holds a
50% working interest. An extensive coring and testing program is planned if the well encounters similar pay sands as at the
Ngamia-1 discovery. Recall, Africa Oil’s share price hit a high of $11.35 in recent months (shares traded below the $2 a share
market up until March 2012) on speculation that the company’s Ngamia-1 well in Kenya could be a "basin opener". The
Ngamia-1 exploration well encountered an initial 20 metres of net oil pay, followed by another 80 meters in deeper zones.
Tullow sampled light waxy oil with an API of 30 from six formations after successfully retrieving samples to the surface.
Although the company has shown that the chance of geological success is high, commerciality cannot be assessed until the
formation is flow tested. Pressure data confirmed multiple pools with porosities between 23-29%. Canaccord Genuity Oil & Gas
Analyst Christopher Brown has previously noted that successful flow testing on Ngamia-1 may open up a “string of pearls” of
look-a-like geological anomalies that could exceed the 2.5 billion barrels Tullow discovered in Uganda. The next major event
for the company will be the drilling of Twiga South-1, which Brown believes 39% chance of geological success and a gross
prospective resource estimate of 59 million barrels. This will be an important potential catalyst in determining the repeatability
of the Ngamia-1 play, which is expected to have six additional follow-up locations on Block 13T (including Twiga South-1).
Tullow plans to production test Twiga South-1 (via a pump) and subsequently move back to Ngamia-1 for an extended
production test. He also points to the Block 10BA, just north of the Ngamia block. This block has 9.9 billion barrels of
identified gross unrisked resources with a geological chance of success of only 7% on average. Brown believes a successful well
on this block would result in another step-change event for the company; a small change in the geological risk would "move the
needle" significantly given the large resource base. In onshore Kenya, the Paipai-1 well in Block 10A, is on track to spud in
early September using the Sakson PR-5 rig which is in the process of final mobilization from Mombassa to the well site.

https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnotev…

[niki550525]

Hallo @
mal wieder was zur Charttechnik:
Gestern wurde ein White Candlestick erzeugt, was ein normalen Kaufdruck zeigt.
Seit dem 16.08 ist übergeordnet ein BUY bei 8,80 CAN$ vorhanden und hat bisher einen Gewinn von 10,34%.
Ich selbst habe mit mehr Risiko, mich hauptsächlich an den Slow STO und SAR gerichtet und die sind seit 9.08. im grünen Bereich (8,00 CAN$)Das ist ein Zugewinn von 1,71 CAN$ pro Aktie.
Aussicht:
Derzeit sind alle Indikatoren im grünen Bereich. Da gibt es eigentlich nicht viel zu sagen.
Einfach weiterlaufen lassen und im Kopf den Stopkurs nachziehen.
Denke mal das der Kurs bis zum 17.09 noch gut laufen kann, da sich die Marktteilnehmer von der Road Show viel versprechen.
Bis dahin sind auch sonst keine nennenswerten News zu erwarten.
Dann noch ein schönes WE
Niki

[gimo211]

Danke motz1 für die sehr interessanten und lesenswerten Artikel!!

AOI entwickelt sich derzeit ganz wunderbar, Twiga könnte schon bald im Bereich der ersten relevanten Zonen ab 800m Tiefe sein...

Der Hinweis in der Präsentation, dass PaiPai bereits unterwegs ist kam tatsächlich etwas überraschend... Es ist eine well mit einem wesentlich größeren Explorations-Risiko (dabei jedoch von enormer Bedeutung auch mit Blick auf Block 9; gut, dass AOI hier bereits erfolgreich das farmout mit Marathon bewerkstelligen konnte...). Vielleicht lassen sie dieses higher risk drilling zunächst absichtlich etwas "im Schatten" von Twiga laufen?

Exiting Times Ahead

[motz1]

Der Gedanke stammt von Stockhouse: Ist Paipai bereits unterwegs?

Aus der letzten NR vom 27.08.:
"...One of the rigs will be mobilized into Kenya, commencing drilling operations in Block 10A on the Paipai-1 exploration well. The second rig will be utilized in Ethiopia,..."

Wenn ich die neue Präsi (Slide 5) richtig lese, sollte Paipai dann doch schon laufen?
Auszug: "Rig #2: Sakson PR 5 – 1 firm slot
− Currently drilling Pai Pai Cretaceous well (Block 10A)"

Avanza schreibt dazu folgendes:
AFRICA OIL: HAR INLETT BORRNINGAR PAIPAI, BLOCK 10A, KENYA (Direkt)
2012-09-07 10:34

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Africa Oil har inlett borrningar vid brunnen Paipai i block 10A i Kenya.
Det framgår av bolagets senaste presentationsmaterial, som nu är tillgängligt på hemsidan.
Därmed följs den tidigare aviserade planen att starta borrningarna tidigt i september.
https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/news.jsp?newsArticleId=N1928…

Im Translator ergibt das (Sorry, Deutsch macht keinen Sinn):
Africa Oil has commenced drilling at the well Paipai in Block 10A in Kenya.
According to the company's latest presentation materials, which are now available on the website.
Thus followed the previously announced plan to start drilling in early september.

Sollte eigentlich schon eine NR wert sein...

[motz1]

Kenya Spends $25 Billion on Bond-Backed Port for Oil: Freight

By Sarah McGregor - Sep 4, 2012 11:00 PM GMT+0200

Kenya, East Africa’s largest economy, is moving to spend $25 billion on a second port, a crude pipeline and roads that will open up export routes in a region luring investors with oil and gas discoveries.

The Kenyan government has agreed with oil-rich South Sudan to build a 2,000-kilometer (1,243-mile) pipeline to the northern Kenyan coastal town of Lamu. Early-stage construction began in March to clear the way for a deepwater port that will serve Kenya’s underdeveloped north, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda.

The planned northern corridor may provide South Sudan with an alternative route for its oil exports, other than via Sudan, after a dispute earlier this year over oil-transit fees brought the neighboring states to the brink of war. The two nations together hold 6.7 billion barrels of crude reserves, the third- largest in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria and Angola.

“This a massive project, equivalent to about two-thirds of Kenya’s annual gross domestic product,” said Mark Bohlund, a sub-Saharan Africa economist with IHS Global Insight who in July attended a conference on Lamu in London. It “could boost growth in the entire region because the overdependence on the Mombasa port has held it back.” Lower transport costs and faster goods movement could help both agriculture and industry, he said.

Kenya’s $34 billion economy, which earns most of its foreign exchange from tea and tourism, is forecast to withstand the global slowdown and expand 5 percent this year and next, from 4.4 percent in 2011, according to the World Bank. Abundant rains this year have boosted agriculture, an industry that generates a quarter of Kenya’s output, and curbed inflation to 6.1 percent in August from a 20 percent peak in November. Kenya is the world’s largest exporter of black tea.

Infrastructure Bonds
The Kenyan government last month opened a tender for the design and construction of the first three berths at Lamu, to be financed by the annual sale of 13 billion shillings ($154.4 million) of infrastructure bonds over five years.

Kenya sold 37.2 billion shillings of 12-year infrastructure bonds between September 2011 and February, the most recent auctions of the debt, at an average yield of 16.64 percent, according to the central bank. That compares with a rate of 12.959 percent for 8.13 billion shillings of 30-year savings development bonds sold in February 2011.

“Right now our interest rates are extremely attractive in a global context to bring investors in,” Aly-Khan Satchu, chief executive officer of Nairobi-based investment company Rich Management Ltd., said by phone.

Projected Demand
The bulk, container and general cargo docks are scheduled to be built by 2016, expanding to 32 berths capable of handling 24 million tons of cargo a year by 2030. That would meet 40 percent of projected local demand by shippers, according to a 2011 report by the 19-nation Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.

Private operators will eventually be hired to run the Lamu harbor, Peter Oremo, a project manager at Kenya Ports Authority, said in a phone interview. Plans to expand the congested Mombasa port, which handles shipments for businesses in Kenya and other East African nations, aren’t keeping pace with increasing trade demand, while the port’s maximum depths and narrow layout restrict the size of the vessels that can safely enter, he said.

The planned pipeline has drawn interest from companies including Toyota Tsusho Corp. (8015), a unit of Japan’s Toyota Motor Corp., which has bid $5 billion to build it, according to the Standard, a Nairobi-based newspaper. State-owned China National Petroleum Corp., one of three companies that pump most of South Sudan’s oil, may also participate, the newspaper said.

Toyota East Africa Ltd. Chairman Dennis Awori wasn’t available for comment when Bloomberg contacted his office. Li Zhanbin, a spokesman for CNPC in Beijing, didn’t answer his mobile phone when called yesterday for comment.

Production Halt
South Sudan, which kept three-quarters of the former unified country’s crude output of 490,000 barrels per day after seceding from Sudan last year, relies on oil for almost all of its government revenue. It halted crude production in January because of the dispute with Sudan over transit fees. While the country is preparing to resume production after reaching a provisional agreement last month over the payments, the friction has injected new impetus into discussions to build the pipeline.

South Sudan has also raised the possibility of building a pipeline via neighboring Ethiopia and Djibouti. Feasibility studies are being conducted on both proposals over the next six months, South Sudan Oil Minister Stephen Dhieu Dau told reporters on Aug. 30, without saying who will fund construction. The goal is for a new pipeline to be operational by 2015.

Tourist Attacks
With virtually no industry or infrastructure in place across Kenya’s north, investors may be reluctant to put their wealth in a territory better known for ethnic conflict and kidnappings. The Lamu archipelago, a tourist destination near the border of war-torn Somalia, was the site of an attack last year that left one British tourist shot dead and his wife taken hostage. Kenya blamed al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, and its army began an incursion into the warn-torn Horn of African nation.

“There are definitely risks with these projects,” said Bohlund. “And it’s probably one of the reasons why Kenya intervened in Somalia.”

Environmentalists and coastal residents have also raised concerns that the project may harm the environment in an area that boasts the Swahili settlement known as Lamu Old Town, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

The Lamu project is part of a wider plan, known as the Lamu Port-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport corridor, to furnish northern Kenya with roads, airports and a refinery in Isiolo, and help spur economic growth of at least 10 percent by 2030.

‘New Frontier’
“We are moving to a new frontier of the world and these types of investment opportunities of this scale are fast- dwindling,” Silvester Kasuku, an adviser in the prime minister’s office overseeing the project, said in an interview.

Kenya’s government is in talks with funders, including Export-Import Bank of China, for a $1 billion loan to lay highways and rails to South Sudan and Ethiopia, where infrastructure development is bolstering economic growth, Kasuku said.

The transit route may also provide farmers in southern Ethiopia who grow crops including coffee and corn with access to international markets and lead to further investment in Kenya’s Turkana region, the site of the country’s first oil find. It was announced by London-based Tullow Oil Plc (TLW) in March.

That discovery, along with the expected start of crude production in Uganda later this year, and natural gas finds off the coast of Tanzania and Mozambique, has boosted competition among oil and gas companies for a greater role in exploring.

“Uganda will need more imports with its oil discovery, South Sudan and Ethiopia are landlocked and are developing,” said the Kenya Ports Authority’s Oremo. “We have to be able to serve these growing markets in the hinterland.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/kenya-spends-25-bil…

[motz1]

Emerging Markets Daily

September 6, 2012, 3:10 P.M. ET.

Manager Talk: African Fund Manager Sees Opportunity In Oil, Consumer Stocks

[...]
Another favored holding: Kenya’s Africa Oil (AOI.V).
[...]

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2012/09/06/man…

[gimo211]

... Leise und vielleicht auch ein wenig im "Schatten" des PCL Mbawa-Drillings nähert sich AOI wieder der CAD 10 - Marke...

Twiga South -1 ist auf dem Wege und coolerweise lehnt KH ein PP-Angebot für 150 Mio. CAD Cash @ CAD 13 per Share ab!!

Das sind die Botschaften, die auf Großes hinweisen...