Dividenden Strategie (Seite 65)

[cimar]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7607b7a4-5340-11e1-aafd-00144…

Greek deal faces the fate of its forebears
By Mohamed El-Erian

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [e-mail] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7607b7a4-5340-11e1-aafd-00144feabd…

After protracted negotiations, Greece’s prime minister announced on Thursday an agreement on a new adjustment programme. By all indications, it is a courageous and ambitious deal, incorporating more painful austerity measures, substantial official financing, and debt relief from private creditors. Yet the process that has led to this juncture is worrying. There is an uncomfortably high chance that this agreement will have the same fate as previous ones – unravelling within a few months, and for good reasons.

Greece’s seemingly endless negotiations stem from two factors that threaten to derail the deal long before any of its durable benefits materialise. First, it is never easy to reach agreement among parties that have very different perceptions of both the problem and its solution. This is especially true in Greece where all three parties to the negotiations (the government, official creditors and private creditors) feel they have already been asked to do a lot, without seeing any actual or potential reward for their sacrifices.

Successive Greek governments have been forced into several rounds of austerity measures in the past two years. Yet still every meaningful indicator of Greece’s economic and financial state has worsened. This sad reality is also relative to what was anticipated in the recent series of adjustment programmes.

In this period, official creditors have poured money into the country. In the process, eurozone politicians have faced considerable domestic opposition – including, of course, in Germany. They have also risked the integrity and credibility of the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Yet all this official financing has done little to improve Greece’s long-term prospects and, rather than attracting new private financing, it has enabled some private creditors to redeem at maturity their investments with no principal losses. Meanwhile, those that still have Greek bonds complain that every time they have agreed to a “haircut”, starting with 21 per cent last October, other parties have moved the goalposts.

The second factor complicating the process is that none of the interested parties has enough overall responsibility for the adjustment programme. This is likely to prove a problem yet again. The history of debt crises suggests that a lack of “ownership” translates into a lack of conviction. As a result, principals – be they government leaders, the ECB and IMF, or those negotiating on behalf of private creditors – find it difficult to sell the agreement to constituents. No wonder agreements have often unravelled after they have been presented to the many groups that have to implement them.

Weak “ownership” also undermines the many corrections that are needed over the course of an adjustment programme. Only pure genius or enormous luck could produce a perfectly designed Greek programme. It is almost inevitable, given the fluidity of the situation in Greece and the global economy, that whatever is agreed will need tweaking in the implementation stage. Without conviction, these corrections will be an opportunity to exit an imperfect agreement rather than to adapt and improve it.

I suspect all three parties to the negotiations know in their heart that their latest agreement, brave as it is, will only last a few months at best. Yet no one wants to be seen to be responsible for a change in course at this stage, fearing they could be blamed for a disorderly default and a potential exit from the eurozone.

So, while welcoming the latest agreement on Greece, we should recognise that, regrettably, it stands only a small chance of placing the country on the path to high growth, higher employment and financial stability. Based on available information, it appears to do too little to promote growth, still leaves the country with an excessive medium-term debt burden, and is unlikely to attract the new external inflows needed for investments in productive and job-creating sectors.

What Greece needs, of course, is an economic, financial and institutional overhaul. Such a reset is not easy; it is also risky. But until it happens, repeated rounds of negotiations will be the rule – as will derailed agreements and finger-pointing.

I fear that this deal is not the end. Within a few months, the negotiating parties are likely to be back at the table bickering while Greece continues to stare into the abyss.

[cimar]

Sehr interessanter Macro-Überblick: USA, Eurozone, Japan, Schwellenländer

A world flying blind
Commentary: Blame on leaders lacking vision for gloomy outlook
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-world-flying-blind-2012-0…

Der Schlußsatz...
The world is a dangerous place because it is being led by the wrong people like the Davos crowd. Monetary and fiscal measures merely prolong the stagnation and stoke inflation down the road. This muddling-through equilibrium will blow up in our faces when inflation causes social turmoil.

[cimar]

Zitat von cimar: Roche und GlaxoSmithKline aufgestockt.

die Griechenland März Anleihe aufgestockt. Insgesamt ist sie aber einen sehr kleine Position.

[cimar]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.713.809 von cimar am 07.02.12 17:23:25

GlaxoSmithKline reported fourth-quarter results that fell slightly short of our expectations, but we don't anticipate any changes to our fair value estimate based on the underperformance. Total sales increased operationally 1% versus the prior-year period as new product growth offset generic competition and the lack of flu pandemic product sales. Lower operating costs led to a quicker growth rate for earnings per share, up 3% operationally year over year. The company issued vague guidance of positive sales growth in 2012 with improving core margins, which compares with our expectations of 2% sales growth and flat margins. Several of Glaxo's new products are generating strong gains, offsetting maturing drugs. As the company annualizes tough year-over-year comparisons to pandemic product sales and the generic launch on antiviral Valtrex, its growth profile should improve. Vaccines Cervarix, Rotarix, and Synflorix along with oncology drug Tykerb are leading the growth. Additionally, several new products are just entering the market, including lupus drug Benlysta and neuroscience drug Trobalt. The new products combined with the lack of major patent losses and an increasingly diversified operating strategy should lead to steady long-term growth. An improving pipeline should further stabilize Glaxo's long-term outlook. The company expects close to 30 new drugs will enter late-stage development over the next three years. It also plans to file at least four new drugs for approval in 2012, including potential blockbusters MEK for melanoma and Relovair for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Despite Relovair's disappointing data earlier in the year, the company's entrenchment in respiratory disease should help support the drug. The drug should also help mitigate the increasing competition to the company's top drug Advair, which treats asthma and COPD. On the bottom line, Glaxo continues to improve e fficiency. As a percentage of total sales, operating costs fell close to 100 basis points year over year as cost savings continue to support margin improvement. The company announced a further cost-saving plan that targets GBP 300 million in savings by 2014. The lack of near-term patent losses on high-margin drugs combined with the increased focus on reducing costs should offset the increased sales from lower-margin emerging market and consumer product businesses. We expect the net impact of these factors will lead to stabile margins over the next few years

[cimar]

Roche und GlaxoSmithKline aufgestockt.

[cimar]

Zitat von cimar:

Zitat von cimar: ...

DividendenAnalyse
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2012/01/27/am…

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/01/26/the-fed-jus…

Dividendenkürzung bei American Capital Agency Corp. (ISIN: US02503X1054, NYSE: AGNC). Die Quartalsdividende wird von 1,40 USDin auf 1,25 USD reduziert.

http://ir.agnc.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=219916&p=irol-dividends

[cimar]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.705.498 von cimar am 06.02.12 13:39:25

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2012/02/06/world-not-…
World not ending – except maybe for shipping

By Ian Campbell

According to a popular, although probably erroneous, reading of an ancient Mayan calendar, the end of the world is scheduled for Dec. 21, 2012. A look at the Baltic Dry Index, which reflects commodity shipping rates, might suggest the Mayan doomsday is indeed at hand. The measure of bulk shipping costs plunged in 2008, warning of the 2009 global recession. On Feb. 3 it closed below its 2008 low.

But it probably isn’t the end, at least not for global trade. The Dutch Centraal Planbureau keeps an eye on global trade volumes. Its world trade index plunged by 20 percent from April 2008 to May 2009. In November 2011, however, world trade volume was up by 28.3 percent from May 2009 and was 2.6 percent higher than the pre-crisis peaks in 2008. These figures don’t bear out Baltic or Mayan gloom.

But the minimal growth in trade from 2008 to 2011 helps explain the plunging BDI. The 2008-2009 stalling in global trade caught shippers by surprise. They expected – and were ordering capacity to keep up with – the remarkable 60 percent annual increase in trade from 2000 to 2008.

The result in what a Nov. 2011 report by PwC called a “distorted” world shipping market. The world’s fleet of 1,200 Capesize ships, the largest, is set to grow by a further 450 in the next three years. The BDI is responding to the over-supply of ships in an environment of positive, though not spectacular trade growth. The likely result is cheaper freight costs, which is good for commodity sellers, but not for shipping firms – nor for the banks which have lent to them.

Worries about global trade should not be entirely dismissed, however. Growth has been relatively weak since mid-2011. The euro zone crisis is no doubt a negative factor. Chinese demand may also be a little softer – though not soft enough to prevent Australia enjoying a record year for exports in 2011. It’s not yet time, thankfully, to see the Balts as modern messengers from the Mayans.

[cimar]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.702.755 von cimar am 05.02.12 21:06:44

A Shift In European Sentiment - Is Germany Prepared To Let Greece Default?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shift-european-sentiment-germa…
.....
"While this step was inevitable from the beginning, what also was inevitable was the fact that leaders would be forced to exude confidence over what happens next. The truth is that they have no idea. Because if Paulson was proven 100% wrong in under 5 days following the Lehman default, when the money markets broke and the Fed has to literally force a bailout of the global financial system, what can one say about two bit second tier politicians from Europe, who have never even seen a DCF model?"

[cimar]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.702.671 von cimar am 05.02.12 20:34:10

Research to Royal Dutch Shell:

Though partially expected given that results are already in at many of its peers, Shell's RDS.A RDS.B fourth quarter was its weakest of 2011, as a $278 million loss in its downstream segment hit hard and results were more than $2 billion below just one quarter ago. This decline in downstream earnings offset the benefit of higher oil prices on upstream earnings, resulting in total profits falling 4% year over year to $6.5 billion. The weakness shown last quarter is likely to be short-lived, in our view, as global downstream fundamentals already have begun to improve.

Production volumes were down 5% year over year to 3.3 million barrels of equivalent per day, with oil production in Africa and gas in Europe being the main culprits. Even with this production decline, higher energy prices lifted earnings to $5.1 billion, up 48% from the $3.4 billion posted in the prior-year period. Full-year production was down 3% year over year, though it was unsurprising to hear Shell declare it will reverse the trend and grow production in the low single digits during 2012 (its recent record makes us somewhat skeptical this will occur). Overall, we maintain a relatively positive view on Shell compared to the other European majors, given the firm's impressive execution, large pipeline of projects, and strong cash flow generation.

[cimar]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.702.663 von cimar am 05.02.12 20:30:55

Here's The Real Problem With Getting The Greek Deal Done

Greece wants to have a deal on debt restructuring done by tonight, though technically it won't go into a real chaotic default until March.

Here's the problem though, it's not just about getting its creditors to agree to take a given haircut on their holdings.

Reuters:

Euro zone finance ministers told Greece it could not go ahead with an agreed deal to restructure privately held debt until it guaranteed to implement reforms to secure a second financing package from the euro zone and the IMF.

Euro zone ministers had hoped to meet on Monday to finalize the second Greek bailout, which has to be in place by mid-March if Athens is to avoid a chaotic default, but the meeting was postponed because of Greek reluctance to commit to reforms.

This isn't new, but it's worth repeating... The problem isn't just restructuring, but getting more aid, which will be on the condition of more reforms, which are already tearing apart society.

Tick... tick... tick...

UPDATE: Kathemirini reports on a Jean-Claude Juncker interview in Der Spiegel wherein he apparently says the same thing, that Greece's choice is basically: Default or reform. The key thing here is that Euro leaders just don't seem scared of default anymore. In this post LTRO world, Greece has lost its leverage.

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-real-problem-with-g…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-real-problem-with-g…