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Abegeddon - Das Armageddon Japans nach den Abenomics (Seite 7)


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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.527.948 von sorosinvest am 09.12.14 17:47:07http://www.fuw.ch/article/japanisches-endspiel-in-vier-akten…

- schon älter - aber so wahr; das Endspiel beginnt bald

Die LDP kommt mit einem klaren Wahlsieg an die Macht zurück. Wie könnte ein hypothetisches Szenario für Japan aussehen? Drehbuch und Handlungsempfehlungen für das anstehende Endspiel.

Die Liberaldemokratische Partei (LDP) unter ihrem Anführer Shinzo Abe hat die Parlamentswahlen von gestern Sonntag klar für sich entschieden. Zusammen mit ihrem Koalitionspartner wird die LDP voraussichtlich eine Zweidrittelmehrheit im Unterhaus kontrollieren. Dies, nachdem sie zuvor drei Jahre in der Opposition gestanden hatte. Die Aussicht auf den Sieg Shinzo Abes hat in den vergangenen Wochen bereits zu einer Rally am japanischen Aktienmarkt und zu einer Abschwächung des Yens geführt. Der künftige Premier möchte zur Bekämpfung der Deflation den Yen schwächen und zu diesem Zweck die Bank of Japan (BoJ) verpolitisieren.

Japanisches Drehbuch

Abe könnte mit seiner Politik schlafende Hunde wecken. Zugegeben: Das Ende der Yenhausse und die Zinswende für Staatsanleihen (JGB) wurden schon oft verkündet. Allerdings mehren sich die Anzeichen, dass beide an einem strukturellen Wendepunkt stehen könnten. Es ist deshalb nicht auszuschliessen, dass Abes Absichten den Trendwechsel auslösen.

Wie könnte ein hypothetisches Szenario für Japan aussehen? Am wahrscheinlichsten scheint ein Drama in vier Akten. Anzumerken gilt, dass die Abgrenzung der einzelnen Akte nicht scharf ist, da sich die Phasen überlappen. Auch die zeitliche Dimension kann kaum abgeschätzt werden. Klar ist nur, dass sich Krisen gegen Ende beschleunigen – die ersten Akte können sich aber durchaus über mehrere Jahre hinziehen und durch langwierige Gegenbewegungen unterbrochen werden.

Erster Akt: Yenschwäche

Gemäss Abe trägt die BoJ die Verantwortung für das Verharren in der Deflationsfalle. Deshalb wird er nächsten April BoJ-Chef Masaaki Shirakawa und seine zwei Stellvertreter – alle drei geldpolitische Traditionalisten – durch «Tauben» ersetzen. Zudem plant er eine Inflationsvorgabe von 2 bis 3%, für deren Erreichung er das Präsidium persönlich verantwortlich machen will. Auch wenn Abe politische Kompromisse eingehen muss, dürfte die BoJ nächstes Jahr ein massives Quantitative-Easing-Programm lancieren.

In der Vergangenheit wurden schon einige Versuche unternommen, den Yen abzuwerten. Oft verpufften die Massnahmen wirkungslos. Dieses Mal könnte es aber anders sein, denn es gibt Anzeichen, die für eine strukturelle Wende des Yens auch ohne Eingriffe der BoJ sprechen. Der wichtigste Unterschied zu vergangenen Episoden ist die Handelsbilanz, die letztes Jahr zum ersten Mal seit Ende der Siebzigerjahre nachhaltig ins Minus gedreht hat und aufgrund der geänderten Energiepolitik – höhere Energieimporte als Folge des nach Fukushima beschlossenen Atomausstiegs – dort verharren könnte.


Sofern die Politik der Yenschwäche gelingt, dürfte der Nikkei nächstes Jahr haussieren. Seit dem Jahr 2005 wird der japanische Aktienmarkt hauptsächlich vom Yen getrieben. Einen Vorgeschmack haben Investoren seit der Ansetzung der Neuwahlen bereits erhalten. Zu den Sektoren, die in diesem Umfeld am besten abschneiden werden, gehören mit den Maschinen- und den Autowerten die klassischen Exportchampions.

Zweiter Akt: Zinsanstieg

Über den schwächeren Yen wird die importierte Inflation anziehen. Sollte sich die Weltwirtschaft nächstes Jahr wieder leicht erholen und damit die Konjunktur auch in Japan beflügeln, erhält der Preisauftrieb zusätzliche Schützenhilfe.
zoom
Eine Überwindung der Deflation dürfte vom Aktienmarkt zunächst euphorisch begrüsst werden. Wie Grafik 2 zeigt, erreichen die Aktienmarktbewertungen ihren Höhepunkt bei einer Inflationsrate von 1 bis 3%. Eine Bewertungsexpansion wäre aufgrund der historischen Erfahrung demnach keine Überraschung.

Ein Anziehen von Inflation und Wachstum bringt höhere Zinsen mit sich. Es ist zu erwarten, dass dies vom Aktienmarkt – besonders von den Bankwerten – anfänglich positiv aufgenommen würde. Der Gesamtmarkt dürfte von Umschichtungen aus den enorm überteuerten JGB profitieren, während die Banken dank der höheren Zinsmargen ein Revival erleben.

Dritter Akt: Börsenkorrektur

Die Massnahmen Abes sind angesichts des Schuldenbergs von rund 236% des Bruttoinlandprodukts und eines Budgetdefizits von über 9% des BIP nicht ohne Risiko. Eine Schwächung des Yens wird ausländische Investoren vom Kauf von JGB abhalten. Auf die Ausländer ist Japan aber angewiesen, da den japanischen Privatinvestoren – unter anderem wegen der demografiebedingt sinkenden Sparquote – der Appetit auf JGB vergangen zu sein scheint. Seit 2009 sinkt der JGB-Bestand in den Händen der Privaten – auch das ein struktureller Wandel.

Höhere Zinsen würden angesichts des heute schon beachtlichen Schuldendiensts – die Zinszahlungen beanspruchen trotz rekordtiefer JGB-Renditen rund 25% des Budgets – dereinst Japans Schuldentragfähigkeit in Frage stellen. Das Risiko eines Dominoeffekts steigt – Anleger könnten sich in Scharen von JGB verabschieden, den Zinsauftrieb beschleunigen und die Finanzierungsnot zu einer selbst erfüllenden Prophezeiung machen.

Eine schwere Rezession wäre die Folge. Wie in den Peripheriestaaten Europas würde sie aber nicht von sinkenden, sondern steigenden JGB-Renditen begleitet. In dieser Phase ist von Aktien, Staatsanleihen und Währung abzuraten.

Vierter Akt: Endspiel

Trotzdem ist in Japan kein zweites Griechenlandszenario zu erwarten, denn im Gegensatz zum Euromitglied verfügt das Inselreich über eine eigene Notenpresse, die zur Absorbierung des JGB-Überhangs angeworfen werden dürfte. Die Notenbank wird vollends in den Dienst der Regierung gestellt und die Staatsschuld monetarisiert. Mit anderen Worten: Die BoJ würde der Regierung die Anleihen mit frisch gedrucktem Geld abkaufen und dadurch die Geldmenge massiv ausweiten. Damit verbunden wäre das völlige Entgleiten der Kontrolle über Inflations- und Zinsentwicklung bis hin zur Hyperinflation.


Im Endspiel werden die Eigner von Nominalanlagen über die Geldentwertung enteignet, während Sachanlagen einen gewissen Schutz bieten. Der Nikkei würde in dieser Phase exponentiell steigen, der Yen hingegen abstürzen. Grafik 3 zeigt diese Dynamik am Beispiel der Türkei während der Neunzigerjahre, als sich der Istanbuler Aktienmarkt mehr als verfünftausendfacht, die Lira aber vollständig entwertet hat.
Schöne Theorie. Scheitert aber gerade. Die Yen Presse läuft sich wund, Statt Inflation wird Deflation produziert.

Japan muss das Defizit einschränken und die Zinsen etwas erhöhen. Dann klappt der Aufschwung.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-05/kyle-bass-warns-whe…

"There are going to be consequences to central bank balance sheet expansion all over the world," Kyle Bass tells Steven Drobny in his new book, The New House of Money Moneyng "It’s a beggar-thy-neighbor policy, but everyone is beggaring thy neighbor." The Texan remains concerned at QE's effects on wealth inequality and worries that "at some point this is going to ignite and set cost pressures off." While Gold-in-JPY is his recommended trade for non-clients, his hugely convex trades on Japan's eventual collapse remain as he explains the endgame for his thesis, "won't buy back until JPY is at 350," and fears "the logical conclusion is war."

Excerpted from Steven Drobny's The New House Of Money,

Drobny: You’re on the tape saying that dollar/yen is going to 200.

Bass: If I’m right, it will go much further than that. I don’t think it will hit 500, but in crises, currencies swing too far. They can start discounting 15% or 20% rates out ad infinitum because they are in a full bond crisis. But once they flush the debt and have a reset, you’re not going to have 20% rates ad infinitum. We’ve committed more capital to the currency market, but all of the convexity is in the bond market.

Drobny: Recently we’ve seen the yen move your way and everyone is getting excited about “The Japan Trade” – is this the big move you’ve been looking for?

Bass: No, this is just the beginning. It’s not the real move. The real move happens when it runs away from the authorities and they lose control.

Drobny: At what point do you go the other way and buy Japan?

Bass: When the yen is 350 and they’ve wiped out their debts.

Drobny: Let’s play out your Japan scenario. If the yen goes to 350 and Japanese government bond yields go to 20% and they can no longer finance themselves such that it becomes a financial disaster, what are the implications for the rest of the world?

Bass: Well, policymakers have been changing the rules, which is challenging for macro hedge funds. But that’s the beauty of this situation.

Drobny: What if they decide to just knock a few zeros off the debt?

Bass: In the end, they may be forced to do so.

Drobny: What if they bought the whole debt stock at 1% yield?

Bass: That’s the St. Louis Fed’s school of thought, which contends that countries that have their own central banks can print their own currency and will never fall. For the world’s sake, I wish that were true. For the last 2000 years, it hasn’t been true, and I don’t believe it to be true. If it is true, I’ll lose 150 basis points a year and move on. Our core portfolio will be fine. Still, if it were true, then why even have fiscal policy? We don’t need a fiscal policy if that’s the case – we could just spend the money however we want. Policymakers don’t believe there are consequences to their actions, but the consequences will come. Economic gravity will actually set in.

Drobny: But you don’t suffer the consequences if you are out of office. That’s the next person’s problem.

Bass: The point is that no one will make those difficult decisions unless they’re forced to make them. The politics of all these situations tell me how this is going to play out, and that’s through massive central bank balance sheet expansion and capital controls.

The Fed recently wrote a paper that actually endorsed capital controls if done concurrently with other nations. It’s hard for me to fathom that capital controls can ever be a great idea, but this is what you’re going to see.

We are in a period that will be characterized by enormous cross-border capital flows. How will it play out? Let’s assume that I’m right about Japan. What happens then? Nominal interest rates in the US and Germany go negative. The Pavlovian response is to fly to perceived safety; this is why we’re not betting against US rates. In fact, we’re receiving rates in Europe and Australia right now because some sort of stagflation will play out first, before you start to see the real problems in Japan. If you look at history and try to understand what has created despotic rulers and wiped out populations financially in the past, and what happens next, the logical conclusion is war.

Drobny: Who is the war going to be between?

Bass: I’m not exactly sure, but it seems to me that the aggressor in Asia is China and they don’t get along with Japan.

Post-World War II, Japan has been constitutionally limited, such that they cannot declare war. But current Prime Minister Abe is talking about rewriting the constitution so that they can actually declare war again. That’s not stabilizing for the region. Nationalism is rearing its head as we speak.

A third of the population in Japan is over the age of 60, and a quarter is over the age of 65. To put this into context, in the broader developed world only about 8% of the population is over 65. At a point when these people need the money the most, they could lose 30-40% of their savings, maybe more in terms of purchasing power. The social repercussions bother us more than the financial repercussions because the social fabric of Japan will either be stretched or most likely torn, and we don’t know what’s going to happen next.

Drobny: Besides Japan, what bothers you?

Bass: There are going to be consequences to central bank balance sheet expansion all over the world. Look at currency cross rates. If all central banks are expanding at the same rate, the cross rates aren’t moving, but your purchasing power, in terms of goods and services in the country where you live, is diminishing. You’re not focused on real returns, you’re preoccupied with the cross rates. It’s a beggar-thy-neighbor policy, but everyone is beggaring thy neighbor.

I really worry about the true cost of goods and services, but people are preoccupied by the dollar/euro exchange rate to gauge the relative strength of the European economy. You see this preconditioned response and even macro players say things like, “Oh, buy the Nikkei at week end.” They’re picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer. Japanese industry has been hollowed out. The exchange rate may stop the decline for a certain period of time but it’s a secular decline. The people that own Japanese equities right now are tourists. But this creates opportunities in the marketplace.
Drobny: You’re on the tape saying that dollar/yen is going to 200.

Bass: If I’m right, it will go much further than that.

Wenn das passiert kann man recht leicht sein eingesetztes Kapital verhundertfachen.
【最新ニュース】 NHK出口調査 自民・公明両党は、3分の2の317議席に届く勢い NHKニュース&スポーツ http://nhknews.jp/p/


Sieht aus nach 2/3 Mehrheit für Abe. YEN Abstieg ist weiter gesichert!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.566.819 von sorosinvest am 14.12.14 12:11:32Goldman Sachs 2015 Outlook: “Living in a Low-Return World” Keys takeaway:
• Japan’s Topix index will rise 18% by the end of 2015, European benchmark index to rise 9% while the S&P 500 Index will increase about 3%.
• U.S. economic recovery will continue at a rate similar to 2014 while expansions in ...
• U.S. dollar will continue to strengthen against other currencies, reaching $1.15 per euro and 130 yen by the end of 2015. ...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.647.105 von sorosinvest am 25.12.14 11:18:07TOKYO, Dec 30 (KUNA) -- Japan's monetary base surged 36.7 percent from a year earlier to JPY 275.88 trillion (USD 2.31 trillion) at the end of 2014, achieving the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) target of JPY 275 trillion (USD 2.30 trillion), the central bank said Tuesday.
That was up from JPY 262.69 trillion (USD 2.20 trillion) held at the end of November, and the highest level since comparable data available since July 1996.
The monetary base comprises money supplied to the markets by the BOJ, including cash in circulation and commercial banks' deposits held at the BOJ's current accounts. An expansion in the monetary base has inflationary effect.
The increase was attributed to BOJ's continuing purchases of government bonds and other securities. In April last year, the BOJ introduced drastic measures to double the monetary base in two years by pumping large amounts of money into financial markets to achieve its 2-percent inflation goal and pull Japan out of deflation that has lasted for nearly 15 years.
Oct. 31, the central bank unexpectedly announced additional stimulus to achieve the inflation target, including expansion of monetary base and purchases of government bonds. Under the fresh measures, the BOJ increased the monetary base at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion (USD 670 billion), up from the previous JPY 60-70 trillion (USD 500-590 billion).
As a result, it also raised the goal of the monetary base to JPY 275 trillion at the end of this year, instead of an initial target of JPY 270 trillion. (end) mk.mt
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.673.610 von sorosinvest am 31.12.14 17:08:58
2015 FX Outlook - Diverging Central Bank Activities Continue to Support USDJPY

Monetary policy divergence would be a key theme directing the movement of USDJPY in 2015. The pair has indeed rallied sharply since the BOJ surprisingly announced QE expansion on October 31. While improving economic outlook in the US has prompted the Fed to normalize the monetary policy, the BOJ might need to add further easing measures to rescue subdued inflation and economic recession. Such divergence in central bank activities was supportive of USD strength and it should continue to be the dynamics in 2015. In Japan, inflation is the most concerned issue for policymakers. Its outlook would determine BOJ's monetary policy and hence the outlook of Japanese yen.

2015 JPY Forecasts
Close as of Dec 26, 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
USDJPY 120.29 121 122 124 124
EURJPY 146 145 143 142 140
GBPJPY 187.09 185 184 185 186
JPFCHF 121.92 119 118 116 115
AUDJPY 97.63 98.9 97.8 97.9 97.0
NZDJPY 93.33 90.9 89.3 88.7 87.3
CADJPY 103.49 105 104 105 105
Trend: JPY Mainly Weakens against USD


Core CPI, excluding volatile fresh food but including oil products, rose +2.7% y/y in November. However, after removing the effects of a sales tax hike in April, core CPI moderated to +0.7% from +0.9% in October. This remained far below BOJ's target of +2%. Meanwhile, the second estimate of the 3Q14 GDP showed a contraction of -0.5% q/q compared with the initial estimate of -0.4%. This suggested that Japan's recession (together with the -1.7% contraction in 2Q14) is more severe than previously anticipated. While growth in private consumption, at +0.4% q/q, stayed unrevised, contractions in private residential, private non-residential investment and public investment proved to be sharper.





That said, some other indicators such as employment, consumer durables shipment and housing data showed improvements in the third quarter. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.5% in November, while the participation rate fell -0.3% to 59.4%. Notwithstanding recession, the job market has been working healthily in the second and third quarter. While we expect further tightness in the job market, the uncertainty is whether this would translate to higher wage pressure.



On net, we expect a pick-up in economic activities in 4Q14 and then stable growth in 2015. A delay in the second VAT hike (from 8% to 10%) to April 2017 would also support consumer spending and retail hiring, and hence the economic growth outlook. with modest economic recovery and yen depreciation offset by decline in oil prices, core CPI (excluding fresh food and VAT effects) is expected to stabilize at around +1% next year, meaning way below BOJ's +2% target.

The BOJ in October raised its purchases of government bonds by about 30 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen, and increase Japan's monetary base at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen, up from 60-70 trillion yen. Yet, the minutes unveiled that the decision was not made unanimously (5-4 vote), suggesting Governor Haruhiko Kuroda might face more hurdles to add stimulus in coming meeting. While some forecast the BOJ to ease further in October 2015, others expect it to maintain the status quo until 2016. After all, the message from the central bank should remain dovish and would signal further easing should inflation continue to deteriorate. Such tone should be bullish USDJPY (bearish for yen) because the Fed had already completed its QE tapering in 2014 with the next move being a rate hike.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.673.610 von sorosinvest am 31.12.14 17:08:58
2015 FX Outlook - Diverging Central Bank Activities Continue to Support USDJPY

Monetary policy divergence would be a key theme directing the movement of USDJPY in 2015. The pair has indeed rallied sharply since the BOJ surprisingly announced QE expansion on October 31. While improving economic outlook in the US has prompted the Fed to normalize the monetary policy, the BOJ might need to add further easing measures to rescue subdued inflation and economic recession. Such divergence in central bank activities was supportive of USD strength and it should continue to be the dynamics in 2015. In Japan, inflation is the most concerned issue for policymakers. Its outlook would determine BOJ's monetary policy and hence the outlook of Japanese yen.

2015 JPY Forecasts
Close as of Dec 26, 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
USDJPY 120.29 121 122 124 124
EURJPY 146 145 143 142 140
GBPJPY 187.09 185 184 185 186
JPFCHF 121.92 119 118 116 115
AUDJPY 97.63 98.9 97.8 97.9 97.0
NZDJPY 93.33 90.9 89.3 88.7 87.3
CADJPY 103.49 105 104 105 105
Trend: JPY Mainly Weakens against USD


Core CPI, excluding volatile fresh food but including oil products, rose +2.7% y/y in November. However, after removing the effects of a sales tax hike in April, core CPI moderated to +0.7% from +0.9% in October. This remained far below BOJ's target of +2%. Meanwhile, the second estimate of the 3Q14 GDP showed a contraction of -0.5% q/q compared with the initial estimate of -0.4%. This suggested that Japan's recession (together with the -1.7% contraction in 2Q14) is more severe than previously anticipated. While growth in private consumption, at +0.4% q/q, stayed unrevised, contractions in private residential, private non-residential investment and public investment proved to be sharper.





That said, some other indicators such as employment, consumer durables shipment and housing data showed improvements in the third quarter. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.5% in November, while the participation rate fell -0.3% to 59.4%. Notwithstanding recession, the job market has been working healthily in the second and third quarter. While we expect further tightness in the job market, the uncertainty is whether this would translate to higher wage pressure.



On net, we expect a pick-up in economic activities in 4Q14 and then stable growth in 2015. A delay in the second VAT hike (from 8% to 10%) to April 2017 would also support consumer spending and retail hiring, and hence the economic growth outlook. with modest economic recovery and yen depreciation offset by decline in oil prices, core CPI (excluding fresh food and VAT effects) is expected to stabilize at around +1% next year, meaning way below BOJ's +2% target.

The BOJ in October raised its purchases of government bonds by about 30 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen, and increase Japan's monetary base at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen, up from 60-70 trillion yen. Yet, the minutes unveiled that the decision was not made unanimously (5-4 vote), suggesting Governor Haruhiko Kuroda might face more hurdles to add stimulus in coming meeting. While some forecast the BOJ to ease further in October 2015, others expect it to maintain the status quo until 2016. After all, the message from the central bank should remain dovish and would signal further easing should inflation continue to deteriorate. Such tone should be bullish USDJPY (bearish for yen) because the Fed had already completed its QE tapering in 2014 with the next move being a rate hike.


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