IN MEXIKO GEHT DIE POST AB!!!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Regiomontano]

Überwältigender Sieg des PAN in Mexiko. Zum ersten mal seit 70 Jahren wurde der PRI von der Regierung abgelöst. Der ehemalige Manager von Coca-Cola Mexico an der Regierung. Enorme Unterstützung für den neuen Präsidenten Vicente Fox insbesondere aus dem Mittelstand und der Oberschicht.

Kurz: In Mexiko herrscht Euphorie pur.

Am Montag ist der IPC (der mexikanische Aktienindex) über 6% gestiegen. Die weiteren Aussichten sind laut Presseberichten und meiner persönlichen Einschätzung glänzend.

Mexiko ist von den lateinamerikanischen Staaten derjenige mit der größten Wirtschaftskraft und der weitesten Entwicklung.

Doch nun was tun? Welches sind die Aktien, von denen wir die größten Kursgewinne erwarten können - und die in Deutschland gehandelt werden?

Mangels besseren Wissens habe ich mir Telmex ("das ist die Deutsche Telekom von Mexiko") und Cemex ("das ist Heidelberger Zement von Mexiko") ins Depot gelegt.

Lasst uns in Deutschland gehandelte mexikanische Aktien diskutieren!

[Regiomontano]

Hier ein Text, den Reuters veröffentlicht hat:

U.S. fund managers see pro-business climate in Mexico
By Cal Mankowski

NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - A pro-business climate is likely to reign uninterrupted in Mexico and ties between the United States and its southern neighbor can strengthen as a conservative political party gets set to take over the government after 71 years of rule by the PRI, U.S.-based fund managers and analysts said Monday.

Mexican stock, foreign exchange and debt markets rallied on Monday after the elections went without any notable hitch, strengthening confidence in a smooth handover and a continuation of free-market policies.

Sunday`s election marked the end of the PRI`s (Institutional Revolutionary Party) long-time hold on the Mexican presidency. With 92 percent of the vote counted, Vicente Fox, candidate of the conservative National Action Party (PAN), was winning with 43 percent of the vote, followed by PRI candidate Francisco Labastida with 36 percent.

"Fox has an outlook that is strongly favorable toward American-style business, said Jim Lucier, vice president and senior Washington analyst with Prudential Securities. "He sees entrepreneurship as important to renewing the Mexican society."

He noted that Fox and the Republican presidential candidate, George W. Bush, are friends of long standing. Should Bush be elected U.S. president in November, he saw great potential for the two to have a strong working relationship which would be good for both countries.

Several fund managers said the calm demeanor of the Mexican politicians following the stunning turnabout at the polls augured well for the future.

"Overall it looks very positive," said David Semple, manager of the Van Eck Emerging Markets Vision Fund. Noting that the winning and losing candidates struck a conciliatory tone in their official statements, Semple said "it looks like there is a genuine desire to make the transition go smoothly."

Martin Schulz, a director on the international equities team at National City Bank and manager of the $740 million Armada International Fund said: "Near term, I don`t think there are going to be too many changes."

Still, Schulz said the changing of the guard after 71 years was a monumental event that could be compared to transformations that have occurred in some Western European nations and in Japan. But he noted that PAN will not control the Congress.

He added Fox does not actually take office until December, succeeding outgoing President Ernesto Zedillo, who has been credited in Mexico and abroad as fostering liberalized trade and promoting a pro-business climate.

Schulz said Mexico has been keeping inflation in check as it worked its way out of the financial crisis signaled by the 1994 devaluation of its peso.

He said the country has also been made progress in diversifying the economy away from heavy dependence on oil, moving more into consumer and high technology industries. He said implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which went into effect in 1994, has eased the way for Mexico.

Zedillo became president in 1994 and under his administration, two-way Mexico-U.S. trade has shot up to $196.6 billion in 1999. Mexico now ranks as America`s No. 2 trading partner ahead of Japan and behind Canada.

"Overall, I don`t think the economic polices are going to be that much different," said Mike Donnelly, manager of the $155 million American Century Emerging Markets Fund. "The perception of Mexico as a functioning democracy is what is key."

Schulz, of the Armada International Fund, said some of his favorite Mexican stocks include fast-growing telecommunications giant Telefonos de Mexico(NYSE: TMX) , which is benefiting from growth in cellular phone usage and the Internet, and cement producer Cemex (NYSE: CX) a very profitable business that is able to take advantage of construction activity worldwide.


Regiomontano

[Regiomontano]

Ich finde leider die Nachricht nicht mehr, aber Ende letzten Jahres gab es bei den Wallstreet-Online-Nachrichten eine Übersicht, welche Börsenentwicklung sich Fondsmanager für 2000 erwarten.

Die USA lag etwa bei +/- 0%

Am besten eingestuft wurden Europa und Lateinamerika.
Wenn Lateinamerika abgeht, ist Mexiko ganz vorne mit dabei, da bin ich mir sicher!

So, antwortet mal was!

Regiomontano

[Regiomontano]

Kann mir jemand sagen, wo ich im Internet die Kurse von Cemex an der mexikanischen Börse finde? Die einzige passende Internetseite, die ich gefunden habe, war die der Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (http://www.bmv.com.mx/). Vielleicht kann ja auch jemand von Euch noch besser Spanisch als ich, so dass er sich dort besser zurecht findet und doch noch Kurse auftut...?

Regiomontano

[Regiomontano]

Hier noch eine Aktie, die immer wieder empfohlen wird, die in Deutschland allerdings sehr geringe Umsätze verzeichnet:

Televisa, WKN: 888781

Bemerkenswert ist übrigens, dass die mexikanischen Aktien trotz der schwachen Nasdaq ihren Kurs halten (ich schätze Telmex und Televisa dürften von der Nasdaq mehr beeinflusst werden als Cemex)

Regiomontano

[Regiomontano]

Hier noch ein weiterer Bericht über die Lage in Mexiko.

Mexican stocks trade lower at open, Telmex drags
By Cyntia Barrera Diaz

MEXICO CITY, July 5 (Reuters) - Mexican shares slipped at the open on Wednesday, led lower by profit-taking in heavyweight Telmex on the Mexican stock market.

The IPC index of leading shares was off 106.34 points, or 1.41 percent, at 7413.7 points.

The key stock gauge, building on Monday`s 6.12 percent surge, rose 1.99 percent on Tuesday to 7520.04 points, its highest close since April 7.

"What I see here is some profit-taking while the U.S. investors try to recover ground after the July 4 holiday," said one trader.

Telmex and most Mexican companies trading on Wall Street posted modest gains, All U.S. financial markets were closed on Tuesday in observance of the Independence Day.

Telefonos de Mexico L shares were off 0.70 peso, or 2.26 percent, at 30.30 pesos but its ADRs (NYSE: TMX), or American Depositary Receipts, trading in New York rose 3/4 to 63-5/8.

On the Mexico market, Telmex accounts for about 30 percent of the weighting of the IPC.

"We do not discard the possibility of short-term profit taking after the speed at which the IPC has risen recently, returning to 7,200 units as confirmation of the rise," said technical analyst Pablo Garcia Malo, from the Valores Finamex brokerage, in a morning note Wednesday.

Since Wednesday last week to Tuesday`s close, shares have soared 843 points, or 12.63 percent, according to bolsa records.

However positive sentiment over the country`s outlook, underpinned by Sunday`s smooth presidential elections, remained intact, traders said.

This weekend Mexicans elected conservative opposition candidate Vicente Fox as president. His victory put an end to 71 consecutive years of the PRI party`s rule.

The electoral process was praised by world leaders as clean and a landmark for democracy.

Deutsche Bank Latin American strategist Renato Grandmont increased his overweight position in Mexico, making it the top-pick market in his dedicated Latin America portfolio.

"We believe that Mexico has taken a major political step that could propel a decoupling away from emerging market valuations," Grandmont said in a report Wednesday.

"Additionally, the successful electoral results will be a key determinant of fund flows for the entire Latin American region," he said.

Volume on the broad Mexican market was nearly 12 million shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 23 to three while seven issues were unchanged.

[Bottervogel]

Großer Bericht in der Telebörse (Printversion):
Habe schon seit längerem Telmex. Mal sehen, die letzten Tage waren ja ganz OK

[Regiomontano]

Hallo Bottervogel,

ich habe die Telebörse nicht gesehen. Kannst du kurz zusammenfassen, was sie gesagt haben?

Ich muss zugeben, bisher bin ich mit der Entwicklung meiner "Mex"-Aktion nicht ganz zufrieden. Cemex -12e, Telmex +11e seit Dienstag. Da hätte ich mir das Geld auch sparen können.

Trotzdem denke ich, dass mittelfristig die Aussichten sehr gut sind.

Am Freitag war im Handelsblatt (wie zur Zeit eigentlich jeden Tag) ein Bericht über Mexiko. Es gibt ein paar Unruhen in Orten, wo die Bevölkerung glaubt der PRI-Mann sei mit Schiebung zum Bürgermeister gewählt worden (am Sonntag wurden gleichzeitig auch einige Bürgermeister gewählt). Im PRI versuchen nun die Hardliner die Macht wieder an sich zu reißen.

Hoffen wir, dass Presidente Vicente alles unter Kontrolle behält und das Schiff auf volle Fahrt bringt.

Die Euphorie ist mittlerweile wieder dem normalen Alltag gewichen. Trotzdem glaube ich weiterhin, dass die großen, international ausgerichteten mexikanischen Werte outperformen werden.

Regiomontano

[Bottervogel]

Hallo, Regiomontano,
der Bericht war nicht im TV, sondern in der Zeitschrift "Telebörse", und zwar in der aktuellen Ausgabe. Wenn es Dich interessiert, lohnen sich die 4,80 bestimmt, es waren immerhin 3 1/2 Seiten über Mexico.
Insgesamt wurde von "breitem Wachstum" und "bestandener Reifeprüfung" geschrieben.
Empfohlen wurden Walmex, Telmex, Cemex und -mit Abstrichen- Televisa.
Viel Erfolg!
Bottervogel

[Regiomontano]

Hallo Bottervogel!

Walmex sagst du? Wer ist denn das? Habe ich noch nie gehört oder gesehen. Ich habe die Aktie auch nicht bei der comdirect finden können.

Viele Grüße, R.

[Bottervogel]

Walmex ist nichts anderes als Walmart de Mexico. Sollte es in Mexico wirklich bergauf gehen und der Wohlstand steigen, sind Konsumgüter wohl eine gute Strategie.
Sind aber nur im Freiverkehr in den USA erhältlich. Kurse z.B. bei www.bigcharts.com Kürzel WMMVY. der Chart sieht nicht so schlecht aus.
Hasta la vista!
BV

[Regiomontano]

Wal-Mart Mexico, hm, sehe ich weniger positiv als Telmex, Cemex oder evtl. Televisa. In den ärmeren, südlichen Regionen Mexikos dürfte Wal-Mart wenig vertreten sein. In den Ballungsräumen ist der Konkurrenzkampf für meine Begriffe sehr groß. Im Gegensatz zu Deutschland, wo sich Wal-Mart deutlich von seinen Wettbewerbern unterscheidet, kann ich bei "Walmex" keinen großen Unterschied zu seinen Hauptwettebewerbern HEB, Soriana und Gigante feststellen.

Hasta la próxima,
R.

[Regiomontano]

Hallo,

ich war gerade auf den Internetseiten von Cemex (www.cemex.com), und ich muss sagen, das sind so ziemlich die professionellsten Internetseiten, die ich in letzter Zeit gesehen habe. Echt stark.

Cemex ist übrigens der drittgrößte Zementhersteller der Welt.

Gruß, Regiomontano

[Regiomontano]

Telmex:

Telmex hat gestern (leider) Ergebnisse präsentiert, die unter den Erwartungen lagen. Damit ist auch der starke Kursverfall zu erklären...

R.

[Regiomontano]

ANALYSIS-Mexico`s Telmex profit outlook stunted by growth
By Fiona Ortiz

MEXICO CITY, July 19 (Reuters) - Shares in leading Latin American blue chip Telmex plunged 11 percent on Wednesday as investors digested disappointing second-quarter results and the prospect that steady gains in profitability at the Mexican phone giant have ended for now.

Telefonos de Mexico (Telmex) (NYSE: TMX) is running into high costs associated with major expansions both internationally and in the domestic cell phone market, analysts said.

That means the company can no longer do what it did consistently in recent quarters -- surprise the markets with unexpected profit gains.

Telmex did the opposite on Tuesday, giving the market a negative surprise. Second-quarter operating margin and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin -- both cost-to-revenue ratios considered key profitability gauges -- came in below expectations.

In response on Wednesday Telmex`s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) plunged more than 11 percent, shedding 7-1/4 on the New York Stock Exchange to 55-3/8 in midday trade.

Telmex, which has a weighting of some 27.6 percent in the leading Mexican stock market index, is a Latin American giant and perennially favorite foreign issue on Wall Street.

The leading local, long-distance and cellular phone operator and Internet provider in Mexico is expanding aggressively internationally and in the online arena with acquisitions from the United States to Argentina.

In a conference call on Wednesday morning, Telmex Chief Financial Officer Adolfo Cerezo told analysts that, being conservative, operating and EBITDA margins would stay at the levels they were in the second quarter.

The operating margin came in at 33 percent, under a forecast of 36 percent in a Reuters poll of four analysts, and compared with 38 percent a year earlier. The EBITDA margin was 51 percent, under both the 53 percent forecast and the 58 percent year-earlier figure.

Analysts said Cerezo`s "bearish message" on margins could be what was dragging down the stock so sharply on Wednesday.

"Paying the price for growth," was the headline on a report by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst Luiz Carvalho, who wrote "margins might continue to suffer in the short to medium term as the company continues to push for faster expansion."

Analyst Ronald Aitken of UBS Warburg said it was the weakest EBITDA margin in five years and that the main reasons were "lower profitability in the local telephony and more international consolidations."

Other disappointing news from Telmex included indications that although cellular subscriber growth is very strong, at 1.1 million new clients in the second quarter, it has likely peaked. Also, increases in new Internet client numbers were not as strong as expected and analysts said they did not expect Telmex would reach its goal of one million online subscribers this year.


LONG-TERM PROSPECTS GOOD


However, analysts all agreed Telmex`s aggressive expansion policies would pay off in the long term, and that the stock would bounce back.

"The major impact on the margins is due to the expansion into international subsidiaries... The purpose of the diversification is very important, to get outside of Mexico, and they are diversifying into high growth segments, cellular, data, Internet," said Patrick Jurczak, an analyst who covers Telmex for Dresdner Kleinwort Benson.

Jurczak said there would be compensation in the long term for the price paid in the short term.

Foreign subsidiaries representing high costs for Telmex are Guatemala`s Telgua phone company, Ecuador`s Conecel cellular firm, and Florida-based prepaid wireless outfit Topp Telecomm.

Several analysts said another reason the stock was being punished today was because Telmex`s so-called "guidance" to analysts before second-quarter results were released indicated better results than what eventually emerged, which meant analysts` forecasts were all above the mark.

Aitken said profitability will come later on as the new businesses mature abroad. "One quarter doesn`t mean you sell the stock," he said.

But someone was selling like crazy on Wednesday. Volume on Mexico`s stock market in midday trade was 93.5 million shares, almost half of that in Telmex, which were off 11.26 percent at 26 pesos per share.

Telmex dragged the Mexican stock market down more than six percent to 6760 points.

[Regiomontano]

Dramatischer Kurssturz von Telmex in den letzten Wochen.

Die Gründe:
- Deutliches Verfehlen der Planzahlen.
- Verhandlungen von Fox mit Bush: Erleichterte Einbürgerung von Mexikanern in den USA <-> Öffnung des mex. Telefonmarktes für die US-Riesen

Gruß, Regiomontano (zurück in Deutschland)

[Regiomontano]

Dafür aber noch ein lustiger Spruch des CEO von Telmex (habe leider gerade den Namen vergessen):

Eine Zeitschrift hatte berichtet, er sei der reichste Mann Lateinamerikas. Seine Antwort darauf: No sé si soy el hombre más rico pero soy el hombre más sabroso.

R.