PCCW - Kaufempfehlung DAO HENG SECURITIES - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[NewBee]

MARKET COMMENTS

The HSI fell for a fourth consecutive day on Monday as investors dumped telecom/tech related
stocks. Even ¡¥old economy` stocks, which investors have recently been turning back to, got
dragged lower. Among the fallers were C&W HKT and HSBC. Tech stocks were battered as
the GEM index closed down 13.1%. Given the sharp falls on NASDAQ the last two evenings,
we expect to see further downside for HK stocks.


PCCW (1186) BUY

$16.80 Target Price: $29.00

PCCW`s share price has fallen 24% since Cable & Wireless agreed to the terms of the HKT
takeover deal. The major uncertainties of the group now lie in its post merger debt position and
the launch schedule of the NOW network. However, we believe the merger between PCCW and
HKT will still proceed. Singapore Telecom, which had also bid for HKT, has seen its share price
fall by about 19% during the same period. A termination fee of US$100mn will be payable by
C&W to PCCW in the event that C&W does not recommend or its shareholders do not vote in
favor of the merger. Although there may be further share price weakness in the short term, we
believe that this provides a strong buying opportunity for investors.

On April 3, management discussed the operations and strategies of Cyberworks Ventures
(CWV) at an analyst meeting.

Meeting highlights:

CWV, which is the venture capital arm of PCCW, has currently invested US$400mn in a total of
42 companies, excluding the share swap deals. Of these 42 companies, up to twelve are
preparing for IPO with over 60 new venture investments being considered. We believe that the
IPO candidates include Rediff, SilkRoute and Sina.com. Based on April 3`s closing prices, we
estimate that CWV has unrealised profits of $1bn from the two recently listed companies,
Tom.com and iMerchants.

CWV aims to build the largest and most diverse network of Internet companies in Asia. The
company is in a strong position to attract high quality investors, given its first mover advantage,
brand name, large scale of operation and potential distribution power.

CMGI Asia, the 50:50 JV between PCCW and CMGI, intends to introduce 23 US-based
CMGI companies into the region. Excluding the 18 companies disclosed at end-January, the
additional five companies are ThingWorld.com, Raging Bull, WebCT, (content and communities
companies), yesmail.com (an e-commerce company) and Speechmachines (an e-commerce
enabler).

Pacific Convergence is scheduled to launch its Network of the World (NOW) services in June.
The first phase launch includes a portal and free to air TV channel. The group has signed 11
MOUs with cable operators, enabling it to reach 10mn households.

Management declined to discuss the post-merger strategy with C&W HKT, since the group is
preparing the scheme of arrangement documents that will be forwarded to the shareholders of
C&W HKT by May 18. The merger is expected to be completed by end-June. Although the
group has arranged a syndicated loan of US$12bn for the merger, it is aiming to reduce its debt
balance to US$3.5bn. It may repay US$3bn by its cash balance and the balance by introducing
several strategic partners.


Source: Dao Heng Securities estimates



Bin im Schnitt bei 2,7x eingestiegen (eine der 3 großen Depotpositionen - nicht eine Aktie abgegeben)... meine Nerven liegen langsam mehr als nur blank (der Asien-Rest ist auch gecrasht ... ich denke das Wort ist richtig gewählt)
Meines Erachtens haben die panischen verkauft ... ab sofort werden die zittrigen und institutionellen/langfristig bedachten Neueinsteiger die Waage halten, bis es in 2-3 Wochen wieder merklich aufwärts geht ...
(schade ... kann nicht mehr aufstocken ...)

[Hamid]

In der FAZ von heute wird die Übernahme von C&W als besonders belastend für PCCW dargestellt, auch eben eine Belastung an der die Rechnung von Herrn Li nicht aufgehen könnte????

[montelaa]

Glaubst Du wirklich dass aus PCCW mal was wird. Für meine Begriffe
wachsen die zu schnell. Die verschieben nur mehr riesige Aktienpakete
und irgendwann wird sich alles in Luft auflösen.
Hoffentlich täusche ich mich!

[NewBee]

ja ... halte mich nicht für einen Amateur
und PCCW ist meine zweitstärkste Langzeitposition - habe nicht verkauft - werde nicht verkaufen.

PCCW ist ein Gigant - es gibt keine Alternative dazu - und das Wachstum ist in der Tat gigantisch

[djole25]

Die wachsen einfach zu schnell! Hofentlich übernehmen sie sich nicht!
Wer zu schnell hoch kommt fällt auch ziemlich tief!
Hoffe das ich unrecht habe aber was da abläuft ist nicht ganz toll!!!