BioTech: Das Geld ist da! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[MH120480]

Wie auch der letzte so endete auch dieser BioTech-Boom vorerst in einem Crash! Doch diesmal ist etwas anders...

Fortschritt

Beim letzten Boom trieb vorallem die Hoffnung auf Bahnbrechende Medikamente die Kurse. Als die Erkenntnis kam, das diese Medikamente erst in ca. 10 Jahren kommen, brachen die Kurse weg und die BioTech-Branche versank mit ihnen.
Doch wie Phönix aus der Asche feierte sie seit Ende 1999 ihr Comeback.



Anfang März kamen dann kamen Bill Clinton und Tony Blair, mit der Äusserung ein paar banaler Aussagen, brachten sie die Branche zum Einbruch.
Eine Spätere Teilrevidierung von Clinton konnte nur kurzfristig zu beruhigen vermögen. BioTech schien ein zweites mal zu enttäuschen. Die Verunsicherung von damals sass noch tief in den Knochen...
Trotz einer Aufklärungskampagne, über die Hintergründe des Clinton/Blair-Comments, u.a. angedacht in diesem Thread Skandal!, vermochte kein Vertrauen mehr in BioTech-Aktien aufkommen.

Doch es ist nicht nur der Fortschritt, der diesmal da ist, es ist vorallem auch Geld da! Geld von VC-Gesellschaften fliesst zunehmend in BioTechs. Die Geldgeber haben erkannt, das BioTechs jetzt am Anfang einer schnellen und kräftigen Entwicklung stehen. Bei den Produkten sowie, und gerade auch dadurch, bei den Kursen! Die Suche nach der nächsten Amgen, Biogen,Celera usw... ist im vollen Gange. Gerade hier verunsichert niemanden das Clinton/Blair-Comment. Das sollte mans sich als Anleger bewusst machen und über die zukünftigkeit einer Branche nachdenken, gerade jetzt nach diesen kräftigen Kursrückschlägen...

Hier eine nette kleine Liste aus dem Handelsblatt, betrifft die Emissionsvolumen (in Millionen EUR) der größten BioTechs in Deutschland:

Mologen 5,1
Morphosys 29,5
Rhein BioTech 31,5
MWG BioTech 40,5
EvoTec 61
Cybio 34
PlasmaSelect 117,9
November AG 40,8

Als nächst größere kommen GPC und Lion Bioscience, beide wollen über 100 Millionen einsammeln trotz mieser Stimmung für die BioTechs. Ich denke dies ist Richtungsweisend!
Weiterhin im Handelsblatt habe ich ein paar weitere schöne Zahlen gefunden:

So flossen im 1.Quartal 2000 ca. 15 Milliarden US-Dollar neuer Mittel an die BioTechs! Sechsmal soviel wie im Vorjahreszeitraum!
8% erstmalige Börsengänge
25% auf Folgeemissionen
62% auf Anleihen u.ä.

Ein weiteres Argument sind 350 Medikamente in der klinischen Testphase! Es werden bald die ersten Erfolge zu feiern sein und verbesserte Methoden werden die Entwicklung beschleunigen!

Wer in BioTech investiert sollte sich die Worte von Bruno Wagner verinnerlichen, der da sagte:

Anleger ohne Geduld werden in der BioTechnologie noch weniger als anderswo ihr Glück machen!

Mfg MH

[fischfresser]

Zum Investment sind die Indexzertifikate der Commerzbank zu empfehlen. Diese orientieren sich an den zehn am höchsten marktkapitalisierten Unternehmen des Nasdaq-Biotech-Index.

Das Zertifikat 101378 bietet im Moment einen guten Einstiegskurs.

[TonyY]

fischfresser, welche Werte sind denn in dem Zertifikat 101378 enthalten ?
Gruss,
TonyY

[Pseudomonas]

Als ebenfalls sehr gute Alternative sehe ich das neue Zertifikat von Merrill Lynch, dass zum 10.05. auf den Markt kommt.

Der Dynamic BioTech 20 bildet die Kursentwicklung der 20 Biotechnologie-Werte mit der höchsten Marktkapitalisierung und Liquidität in Europa und Nordamerika ab. Alle vier Monate (Februar, Juni, Oktober) passt Merrill Lynch den Index neu an, so dass er die sich schnell wandelnde Branche stets adäquat abbildet. Bei jeder Umschichtung werden alle Titel anfangs gleich gewichtet. Das bedeutet gleiche Ausgangsposition und Outperformance-Chancen für alle Aktien im Index.
Der Dynamic BioTech 20 Index wird aus zwei Pools gebildet. Die nordamerikanischen Titel stammen aus den Bio-Tech-Werten des Nasdaq Composite Index®, europäische ADRs bleiben hier unberücksichtigt. Den Europa-Pool bilden die europäischen Bio-Tech-Aktien des Nasdaq Composite Index® und die Bio-Tech-Werte der Deutschen Börse (Neuer Markt), der Pariser Börse (Nouveau Marché), der Londoner Börse (techMARK) sowie der Schweizer und der Kopenhagener Börse. Dadurch ist der Index regional diversifiziert: Im Schnitt sind 15 amerikanische und 5 europäische Aktien vertreten.

Gestartet wird wie folgt:

Abgenix Inc. USA
Alkermes Inc. USA
Amgen Inc. USA
Ares Serono AG Schweiz
Biogen Inc. USA
Celltech Group Großbritannien
Chiron Corp. USA
Genzyme Corp. USA
Human Genome Sciences Inc. USA
Idec Pharmaceuticals Corp. USA
Immunex Corp. USA
Incyte Pharmaceuticals Inc. USA
Medimmune Inc. USA
Millenium Pharmaceuticals USA
Nycomed Amersham Plc. Großbritannien
Qiagen N.V. Niederlande
QLT Phototherapeutics Inc. Kanada
Sepracor Inc. USA
Shire Pharmaceuticals Großbritannien
Teva Pharmaceuticals Group Israel

Grüsse Pseudo

[PolyesterPower [KommA]]

jo mh, treffend gesagt.

mfg PoP

[tuki]

Bin im Biotech bereich nur mäßig bewandert.

Aber wenn ihr eine oberflächliche Betrachtung hören wollt:

Quiagen fällt auch mir auf.
Mologen hab` ich mir auch gleich näher angesehen
na ja und von Morph brauch ich ja nix zu sagen.

MfG

Tuki

[MH120480]

Die bekanntgabe von Celera, das man 99% des menschlichen Erbguts durchbuchstabiert habe, verhalf der Branche vorerst wieder auf die Beine. Auch wenn dies nur ein erster Schritt ist, so verhilft er der Branche doch wieder zu mehr Vertrauen, man sieht, es tut sich was!

Jetzt wollt ich was schreiben und muss essen gehen...naja bis nachher.

Mfg MH

[fischfresser]

Die Zusammensetzung des
Commerzbank Biotechnologie II Top 10 Index-Zertifikat:
Amgen
Biogen
Chiron
Human Genom
IDEC Pharm.e
Immunex
Medimmune
Mill. Pharm
QLT PhotoTh.
Sepracor

Letzte Anpassung:
1. März 2000
Nächste Anpassung:
1. September 2000

[kami.]

Im Commerzbank Index-Zertifikat I sind die folgenden 10 Werte drin:

Sepracor 4,86 %
QLT Phototherapeutics 4,13 %
Amgen 20 %
Biogen 15,73 %
Chiron 9,37 %
Gencyme 4,68 %
Human Genome Sciences 3,92 %
Immunex 18,82 %
Medimmune 12,95 %
Millenium 5,54 %

Wer jetzt die einzelnen Anteile zusammenzählt, wird feststellen, dass keine 100 % dabei herauskommen. Die Info habe ich telefonisch bei meiner Commerzbank-Filiale abgefragt, weiss der Geier, was sie mir vorgelesen haben :-))).

Das Zertifikat Nr. I (WKN 109079) wird seit Anfang Februar gehandelt, das Tief vor ein paar Tagen lag bei knapp über 80 €/Stück, das Hoch während der Biotech-Hausse bei knapp 140 €/Stück, Ausgabepreis 100 €/Stück.

Das Zertifikat Nr. II (WKN 101378) wird seit Anfang März gehandelt, das Tief vor ein paar Tagen lag bei knapp unter 60 €/Stück, der Ausgabepreis müsste ebenfalls bei 100 €/Stück gelegen haben, über den Ausgabepreis sind sie meines Wissens noch nicht gestiegen, da diese Emi genau in den Zeitraum, als die Biotechs zurückgingen, gelegen hat.

Die Commerzbank teilte mir auf tel. Anfrage mit, dass dieses Zertifikat bis auf einen Wert identisch mit dem 1. ist, lediglich die Gewichtung der einzelnen Werte wurde ganz leicht verändert.

Zusätzlich gibt es noch mind. 1 OS Basket, zu dem ich leider keine Infos mehr habe, evt. ist dieser jedoch über www.onvista.de zu finden.

Ich persönlich halte ein Indexzertifikat oder einen Basket für eine gute Langfristanlage im Bereich der Biotechs. Ähnlich wie bei einem Fond wird eine Vorausauswahl getroffen, die einem ne Menge Researcharbeit erspart. Abgesehen davon, dass wohl kaum einer, der in solche Werte investieren will, über ein entsprechendes Fachwissen verfügt, um Fachveröffentlichungen bewerten zu können :-))).

Grüsse kami

[HaNa1]

Eine Frage zu Zertifikat Nr. II (WKN 101378 )
Ich möchte gerne in Biotech einsteigen,
wie wird das Zertifikat gehandelt.

Vielen Dank für eure Hilfe

Grüße HaNa1

[fischfresser]

Hallo HaNa1,

das Zertifikat wird im Freiverkehr an den Börsen Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Berlin, Stuttgart und Hamburg gehandelt.
Da die gehandelten Stückzahlen extrem unterschiedlich sind, solltest Du den auf jeden Fall ein LIMIT setzen.

Die Alternative wäre, das Biotechnologie III Top 10 Indexzertifikat der Commerzbank zu zeichnen, das am 12. Mai ausgegeben werden soll.
Die Zeichnungsfrist läuft bis zum 5. Mai.

WKN 137 830
Emmissionspreis 100 €

[fischfresser]

Nähere Informationen zu den Index-Zertifikaten der CoBa findet man unter:
http://w2.commerzbank.de/navigate/reta_frm.htm

[HaNa1]

Hallo fischfresser
Vielen Dank für die Info
Gruß HaNa1

[DerWanderer]

Warum gibt es keinen Handel mit dem Biot.II Zertifikat ?
Letzter war glaube ich am 27.04.

Bye

[MH120480]

Entweder will keiner kaufen oder keiner verkaufen oder aufgrund der Limits, kommt kein Handelzustande, was gibt es denn für nen Kurszusatz?

Mfg MH

[DerWanderer]

Hi MH ,

das Zertifikat wird wieder gehandelt...
letzter Kurs 64,5


Bye

[Berufsurlauber]

letzter kurs 05.05.00 FRA
70,50, Umsatz 445.071

Gruss
Berufsurlauber

[MH120480]

Bei deinem Namen scheint es dir sehr gut zu gehen oder?

Mfg MH

[MH120480]

Das sind die BioTech-Regionen in Amerika.

Mfg MH

[MH120480]

Venture firm launches fund to focus on genomics

Cambridge company plans as many as 30 start-ups

By Ronald Rosenberg, Globe Staff, 6/20/2000


ith a first draft of the map of the human genome still pending, Applied Genomic Technology Capital Fund LP yesterday became the first venture firm devoted exclusively to forming companies that sell genome-related products and services to the pharmaceutical and biotech industries.


The Cambridge-based fund, which has a San Francisco office, plans to create as many as 30 companies over the next three years. The companies will apply genetic information and discoveries to computer software and Internet technology.


``Our goal is to take the discoveries from genomics and the tools from information technology and find commercial applications,`` said Noubar B. Afeyan, founder and managing partner. Afeyan said his firm seeks to ``create a new breed of company with a different investment thesis, one that will get revenues and grow more quickly than the biotech firms.``


Afeyan is no stranger to biotechnology. He created PerSeptive Biosystems of Framingham, an advanced instruments company, in the early 1990s before selling it to what is now PE Corp. of Norwalk, Conn.


His new firm, Applied Genomic, has commitments for $70 million in initial capital. Its goal is to raise $150 million to $200 million from a combination of institutional investors and corporations, Afeyan said.


Joining him at Applied Genomic are David K. Stone, the former managing director and biotechnology analyst at Cowen & Co. in Boston; Nancy M. Crowell, a former partner and managing director at Cowen in San Francisco; and Edwin M. Kania Jr., cofounder of OneLiberty Ventures, one of the key sponsors of the new venture capital firm.


Afeyan said the new venture firm was formed by OneLiberty Ventures and NewcoGen Group, a company Afeyan launched last fall to develop new concepts in the life science and information technology fields.


Other early investors in Applied Genomic are Affymetrix Inc. of Santa Clara, Calif., Antigenics Inc. of Woburn, Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. of Cambridge, Paine Webber Group Inc., and some private investors.


Applied genomic companies combine information technology, specifically the use of software and the Internet, with knowledge of the human genome - the 46 chromosomes containing strands of DNA that run 3 billion letters long. A sequencing of the DNA, the first draft of which is due out this summer, fits on a CD-ROM; it is considered biology`s equivalent to chemistry`s periodic table of elements.


Using the new map to create drugs, diagnostic exams, and other medical therapies is part of the field known as applied genomics. It is expected to be the focus of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies over the next 10 to 15 years.


Applied Genomic Technology, along with other biotech and health care venture capital companies, wants to provide the software tools and other products and services that will enable drug companies to develop the next generation of genetically based medicines.


MPN Capital of Cambridge, which recently raised $600 million in a new venture fund, plans to invest in applied genomic companies as part of its biotech strategy.


``Applied genomics is the new buzzword among venture capitalists, some of whom are forming new funds that put biology and information technology together,`` said Thomas Salemi, editor of Venture Capital and Healthcare, a Wellesley-based newsletter published by Asset Alternatives Inc. that follows the venture capital industry.


Frazier & Co., a nine-year-old health care venture capital firm in Seattle, recently formed Frazier Technology Ventures, whose mission includes funding the development of start-ups that combine genomics with computer technology.


``We are not focused exclusively on genomics, but we are looking at it very closely as a new investment area,`` said Philip Borden, an analyst at Frazier Technology Ventures.


This story ran on page C1 of the Boston Globe on 6/20/2000.
© Copyright 2000 Globe Newspaper Company.

Mfg MH

[IWA Japan]

aus dem he-utigen HB:
Hier nun der erste Atikel vom heutigen HB:
Genomics als Schlüssel zur Wertsteigerung. da es hier Kursimpulse durch Forschungsfortschrite gebrn sollte

Desweiteren: PDLI lockt mit interessanten Patenten sowie zahlreicehn Abkommen mit Gesellschaften wie Roche, DNA und Medi

Bestände an MLNM und INCy (!) werden aufgebaut
Die Restliqiidität wird deutlich zurückgefahren

Andererseits wird von einem anderen Fondmanager gerade der Genomics-Sektor zur+ückhaltend eingestuft.

aussichtsreich seinen aber Staar Surgical und Cyberonics. (werk ennt diese Firmen?)


Hier die Schlüüselstele im Artikel:
Wesentlich gedämpfter fallen die Urteile über die Chancen der dt. Branchenvertreter aus. Deren Kurse seine zu Hoch. Sie würden spätestens dann nach unten korrigiert werden, wen es durch den Börsengang weiterer dt. Bios eine größere Auswahl gebe!

[MH120480]

Hier noch ein Handelsblatt-Artikel, ist aber in Englisch:

Biotechnology


Germany sees biotech start-up boom


HB/sms. Over a period of two years, the number of German biotechnology firms has risen from 173 to 279, an Ernst & Young study has revealed.

In terms of the number of firms, Germany has thus for the first time overtaken Great Britain at the head of the European ranking. But in terms of turnover and market capitalization, Germany`s biotechnology sector still lags behind its British counterpart.

For Thilo Rohrhirsch, biotechnology expert at Ernst &Young, the structure of the German biotechnology market is problematic. Unlike its counterpart in the United States, the German biotechnology market is made up of a number of small firms whose business is in many cases founded on a single product. Given the long development periods required for pharmaceutical products, this can be quite dangerous, Rohrhirsch argued, speaking at a biotechnology conference in Berlin, organized to mark the presentation of the Ernst & Young report to the German government.

Biotechnology firms themselves are expecting to see continued growth. When asked by Ernst & Young, a large majority had said they expected to be expanding their workforce.

But according to Rohrhirsch, what German firms now need is a platform strategy founded on the development of, or cooperation of, several products.

It is just this kind of networking of firms and research activities that the German government is aiming to promote. Wolf-Michael Catenhusen, parliamentary secretary of state to Germany`s Ministry of Education and Research, pointed out that it is not only in the number of biotechnology start-ups that Germany leads the way in Europe. It is also European leader in terms of state subsidies.

Subsidies from the Ministry of Education and Research alone total DM1bn annually, Catenhusen said. On top of this, further funds are supplied by the Economics Ministry. Only in the US, where greater private funds are available, is more invested in biotechnology.

Compared with UK and US rivals, German biotechnology firms are late starters. But Catenhausen saw better chances of survival for young firms in Germany than elsewhere. A program such as the German government`s BioRegio advisory and networking system is unequalled anywhere else, he argued. Now the Ministry of Education and Research plans to set up the BioProfile program, which will make DM100m available for regional cooperations.

German biotechnology firms now also enjoy growing opportunities to raise funds from private risk capital or from public offerings, but Ernst & Young`s Rohrhirsch argued that state-subsidy programs constituted a major reason for the boom in biotechnology start-ups seen over the past three years. In the provision of risk capital too, an important part is played by state institutes such as TBG, a subsidiary of the Deutsche Ausgleichsbank, which is responsible to the Economics Ministry.

The Ernst & Young study also shows that new biotechnology firms are finding increasing success in covering their capital needs through revenue raised on the capital markets. Last year, 185m euros was raised from flotations. Risk capital is also playing an increasing role, supplying 260m euros to the biotechnology sector in 1999, up from 200m euros in 1998.

Catenhausen pointed to the biotechnology sector`s importance as a source of employment. So far, it has created 8,000 highly qualified jobs in Germany. The number of workers per firm is rising even more quickly than the number of firms, he enthused.

According to the Ernst & Young study, it is precisely the young firms with an exclusive focus on biotechnology that are making the most intensive efforts in research and development. On average, the study estimates, R&D expenditure accounts for 60% of turnover. This compares extremely favorably with other high-tech sectors.


HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 20. Juni 2000

Mfg MH

[MH120480]

Bullish on Biotech

By Barbara Rockefeller
Columnist
07/05/2000 6:21 AM





BBH (BBH: AMEX), a Merrill Lynch security that tracks 20 of the biggest biotech stocks, looks ready for a breakout to the upside after almost two weeks of the blahs. It has been a buy since May 5 on the MACD indicator in the top window (green arrow), although it went through an iffy patch the week of May 22.

If you try to duplicate this MACD elsewhere, you will get a different-looking chart. That`s because the crossover moving average used here is 28 days instead of the usual default of 9 days.

BBH doesn`t even have a year under its belt, so back-testing for an optimum set of parameters might seem silly, but if you look at the default version and at this version, you see that the longer one is efficient -- fewer trades.

The TSA Group software generated the red triangle, which nicely defines the consolidation. If the MACD is valid for direction, the breakout should be to the upside, and soon.





What pattern is that funny-looking month of sideways prices for BBH? It`s not connected to the previous downtrend, delineated by the standard error channel in light gray.

In fact, it is separated from it by a gap that occurred June 2 (circle). We have no volatility at all, as shown by the relative volatility indicator in the top window.

It might be an island, which is usually set off from a trend by a gap. If so, we expect another gap and then possibly a resumption of the downtrend. That would make it an island top.

We have some reason to think this is not what`s going to happen. First, the linear regression (magenta) has a nice upward tilt to it. Secondly, the month, quarter and half-year are over, so fund managers are liberated to reverse any window-dressing they did. To the degree this entailed listing stuffy old stocks, now they can go back to "wild" Nasdaq names.

Finally, it doesn`t feel particularly bearish. Cautious, uncertain, sitting on the sidelines, worried about earnings, but not totally defensive. So, we wait for an event or for a shift in sentiment.

The gap, assuming we get one, will probably set the tone for another month or more.

Data courtesy of Reuters DataLink

Mfg MH

[MH120480]

Risk and return in biotech

Q. Dr Craig Venter, the chief executive of Celera Genomics, stands to make a fortune out of his part in the unravelling of the mystery of human genetic makeup. How can I make money from the genome?


A. What a cynical attitude. Surely you should be content that your children are likely to live longer as a result of Dr Venter`s work? Having said that, investing in biotechnology and other healthcare stocks is not a bad idea, but it is a high risk level.

Do not try to pick the stocks yourself as you are highly unlikely to choose a winner. Huge pharmaceutical firms such as Glaxo Wellcome are probably a solid bet, but you are better off looking for a fund that specialises in this area.

Your options are limited. There are three investment trusts and four unit trusts on the market. Of these, the riskier bets are the pure biotechnology funds, such as City Financial Biotech and Franklin Templeton Biotechnology. If you are looking for exposure to the sector, but are prepared to take a risk, Framlington Health and Schroder Medical Discovery invest in larger, blue-chip pharmaceutical firms, as well as the riskier biotech companies.

Mfg MH

[MH120480]

The future of biotechnology: mastering the "G revolution"


Davos, Switzerland, 28 January 2000 - Scientific advances in biotechnology – the "G revolution" – will have a significant impact on our lives within the next three to five years, William A. Haseltine, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Human Genome Sciences, USA, predicted at the 30th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum.
Multiple advances with human genes and proteins will helping the body regenerate itself, for instance in the healing of lesions caused by cancer, he told an interactive panel session on biotechnology. Within 10-20 years, he said, it might be possible to rebuild a heart from human tissue.

In a discussion among leading experts on the challenges to society posed by these advances, George M. Church, Director of the Lipper Center for Computational Genetics and Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, said that success for developments in the biotechnology industry depended on its ability to embrace social needs, such as making raw data immediately available on the Internet. Church also pointed out that the technology of genomics is already four to five years ahead of schedule and is doubling every 18 months. Quite a number of scientists, Church said, are now trying to incorporate such data into computational models that will help decide which methods and drugs can be operated and controlled more effectively.

Jane E. Henney, Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, stressed that no matter how sophisticated the product, it needs to respond to certain high standards. This includes an appropriate evaluation not only of the risks of each product but also of its therapeutic value. Henney added that above all, such determinations have to be transparent, particularly on the Internet and in other public forums.

However, major concerns remain: Vandana Shiva, Director of the Research Foundation for Science Technology and Natural Resources Policy in India, challenged the notion of a "G revolution", maintaining that one cannot assume predictability where it does not exist. She said we need to rewrite what she called the "crazy" assumption that genetically modified organisms are equal to conventional ones, particularly in agriculture. "We assume that they are, when in fact they are not", she argued. Shiva warned one should not believe that genomics are the only response to developments such as the extension of life. Long life, she maintained, has been achieved in certain parts of the world long ago by more natural means. It is essential not to close all options, she stressed – such debate must be public. The "G revolution", warned Shiva, is where democracy will have its toughest test.

The World Economic Forum (m.org) is an independent organization committed to improving the state of the world. It serves its members and society by creating the foremost global partnership of business, political, intellectual and other leaders of society to define and discuss key issues on the global agenda. Incorporated since 1971 as a foundation, the World Economic Forum is independent, impartial and not-for-profit, tied to no political,

Mfg MH

[IWA Japan]

TheStreet.com - View from TSC
Mapping Out Stocks for the Genome Gold Rush


Playing the biotechs is always fraught with risk, but some bets are looking pretty smart.

By Dane Hamilton
Staff Reporter


If you thought Net stocks were tricky, try genomics.

The only sure thing about the emerging genomics industry is that billions of dollars in research money will be thrown at it. Some will pay off. A lot won`t. And it may take years or decades for some research to bear fruit.

That`s why analysts and investors now seem most apt to recommend pick-and-shovel companies that sell the tools to the hoards of drug companies joining the genomic gold rush. Thar`s gold in them thar hills! You may not find any, but you certainly won`t get anywhere without the tools. That thinking has had these stocks rallying in recent weeks, though Thursday morning saw a pullback that knocked the big biotech indices down by about 4%.

Fire to Play With
A decent track record won`t hurt, either. "I go for revenue-driven companies, not companies that are in early stages," says Paul Knight, analyst with Thomas Weisel , who recommends PerkinElmer (NYSE: PKI - news) , BioSource International (Nasdaq: BIOI - news) and Varian Medical Systems (NYSE: VAR - news) , which all make products for the biotech industry. "They have established products and distribution networks," he explains. Weisel, which rates all three stocks strong buys, advised PerkinElmer in a recent transaction but doesn`t do work for the others.

But, says Knight, "if you want to play with fire, there`s lots of fire to play with."

And lots of momentum, too. The Nasdaq Biotech Index tripled over a year to early March, then lost 50% of its value over two months. Now the measure has nearly doubled off its lows, leaving it around 1300 Thursday, just 20% below its all-time high.

The companies that have benefited from the pick-and-shovel logic include Celera Genomics (NYSE: CRA - news) , Incyte Genomics (Nasdaq: INCY - news) , Millennium Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: MLNM - news) , Human Genome Sciences (Nasdaq: HGSI - news) and Qiagen (Nasdaq: QGENF - news) , all of whose shares have posted hefty gains over past year on hopes for their gene-research prowess. All sell research to b! ig pharma companies, although Human Genome is also developing gene-based drugs.

A Place for Tradition
While Celera has been in the news most lately for compiling the first draft of the human genetic blueprint, all of these companies have been compiling data for years, mainly for big pharmaceutical and biotech companies. All are looking to find ways to manipulate the 100,000 or so genes in the human genetic makeup to find profitable new drugs.

And with cash coming from such alliances, tool-kit companies can be valued on traditional investment measures, such as net present value and earnings multiples, even though some, like Incyte and Human Genome, are still posting losses.

"The first person to get all the information is in a great position," says Matthew Murray, a fund manager with Alliance Capital`s new $500 million biotechnology fund. The fund is one of several that have formed in recent months to invest in genomics.

Will the genomic leaders of today be the defunct Commodore and Atari computer makers of tomorrow? Not in all cases, some investors say. That`s because the barriers to entry in genomics field are higher than for computers. Furthermore, patents on genetic findings could ensure a steady stream of royalties in coming years from drugs on the market. "The founder effect is much more pronounced for these companies" than computer makers, says Murray.

Long Run
How many new drugs will be created from genetic findings is an open question. Already there have been some 90 drugs from the biotechnology industry approved, mainly new drugs to replace or interact with proteins in the body, as well as vaccines and antibodies that target certain illnesses. But new gene maps are opening up hundreds of new targets for research.

But with unproved technologies and no established record of generating money, the old rules for investing apply, such as the portfolio approach. It`s a rule of thumb among biotech investors that for every 10 stocks, one or two may succeed, two or three will be marginally successful and the rest will fail.

"We`re going to be working on the genome for the next 100 years," says Steve Newby, fund manager with GenomicsFund.com, a Maryland fund with $14 million invested in 21 genomics stocks. "There`s going to be some wipeouts and some grand slam home runs."

The GenomicsFund, which was started in March, breaks out stock purchases into four main areas: pharmacogenomics, bioinformatics, analysis technologies and delivery technologies. The biggest sector in the fund -- and probably the highest risk -- is pharmacogenomics, which is finding new drug based on genetics. Top names in this sector include Human Genome Sciences (which not only has a gene database but is developing drugs based on it), Millennium, Protein Design Labs (Nasdaq: PDLI - news) and Medarex (Nasdaq: MEDX - news) .

Newby says, "We stick with the leaders" in the sector, and the strategy seems to be paying off for now. With surging investor interest in genomic plays, the firm topped both Morningstar and Lipper mutual fund performance rankings in the second quarter, GenomicsFund says.

Getting Snippy
Not everyone sticks with the leaders, of course. Some analysts see the future leaders in newer companies like Orchid Biosciences (Nasdaq: ORCH - news) and Sequenom (Nasdaq: SQNM - news) , the leaders of some 20 companies researching variations in genes called SNPs, or "snips."

"Billions of dollars will be tossed toward this area in the next few years, and the pie is big enough to support many players," says Tim Bepler, fund manager with Orbitex Health & Biotechnologyfund, a $300 million biotech fund with about 35% of its assets in genomic stocks. "We think a basket approach makes the most sense."

See TheStreet.com`s full site for more of its unique insider`s perspective on Wall Street.

[MH120480]

Ich habe den Thread ins Biotech-Forum verschieben lassen, da er mir hier besser platziert erscheint.

US: debate over biotech food ignores its humanitarian potential
The Associated Press
7/17/00 7:59 PM


UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- The U.S. agriculture secretary urged supporters and detractors of genetically engineered food Monday to focus on the benefits biotechnology can have in feeding the growing world population.

With 800 million people chronically hungry and the world`s population expected to hit 9 billion in 50 years, "we have to do something to squeeze higher yields out of fewer and fewer acres," Dan Glickman told a panel discussion of the U.N. Economic and Social Council.

Glickman said biotech foods must be part of the answer, since they cannot only increase the quantity but the quality of food.

Genetically engineered crops -- including corn, cotton and soybeans -- have become popular in the United States over the past few years because of the increased yields.

But they have met increased consumer resistance in Europe and Asia. Critics of the crops, which are resistant to herbicides or insects, say that there isn`t enough known about their impact on health and the environment.

Glickman decried what he called the "loud, contentions, trans-Atlantic food fight" that has ensued, saying both supporters and detractors of biotech had lost sight of its potential to ease hunger in the developing world.

"Many of the opponents, frankly, can afford the luxury of their opposition; they don`t have to worry about food insecurity since they live in prosperous, agriculturally abundant societies," he said.

But Glickman also criticized biotech`s proponents -- the multinational corporations that are developing the products -- saying their focus on profit was also missing the point.

"If they took the longer view they might see the benefit of focusing on the developing world -- not just as a gesture of corporate citizenship but because such an investment will ultimately pay dividends as developing countries mature into reliable customers," he said.

In his speech, Glickman also announced a $145 million new package of farm aid -- involving 350,000 metric tons of wheat, corn and rice -- to Afghanistan, Kenya and Horn of African nations hit by drought.

Mfg MH

[MH120480]

Thursday July 20, 11:47 am Eastern Time
worldlyinvestor.com Sector of the Day

Judgment Day Is Here for Biotechs

By Nadine Wong, Biotech Stocks Columnist

Earnings season marks the moment of truth for a handful of biotechs.


As the biotech earnings season hits full stride, Wall Street eagerly awaits the results. For the biotech sector this is the moment of truth for a handful of companies.

This is the time when companies either flaunt or strut their stuff or feel the wrath of investors if they don`t meet numbers.

Right now, the biotech sector is strong and current stock prices are reflecting the strength. The big kahuna of biotechs, Genentech (NYSENA - news), reported a 7% gain in second quarter profits (prior to the impact of redemption charges), in line with Wall Street`s expectations.

As I`ve said in the past, this biotech has a promising pipeline and room to grow based on its cancer and cardiovascular drugs. Even though the stock price fell back when the earnings announcement was released, the report is good for the stock and Genentech is a buy.

So far, I see this news as the debut for biotechs. In the next several weeks, other big-name biotechs will release their earnings, such as Amgen (Nasdaq:AMGN - news), Immunex (Nasdaq:IMNX - news), Genzyme (Nasdaq:GENZ - news) and Chiron (Nasdaq:CHIR - news). They are expected to beat or meet earning estimates. You can`t go wrong owning shares of these companies.

Can`t Ignore IDEC
Then there is IDEC Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:IDPH - news), which knocked the socks off Wall Street by beating forecasts for second-quarter earnings with 26 cents per share, 8 cents better than the consensus estimate. The company is a buy with IDEC`s lead drug Rituxan, which is used in the treatment of B-cell non-Hodgkin`s lymphoma.

Sales results for 1999 totaled $72.2 million, whereas sales have climbed to $96.7 million in the second quarter alone. At this rate IDEC, which over the last couple years has partnered with Genentech on marketing Rituxan, can generate $500 million in sales.

The potential for IDEC will get better as the company`s promising compound Zevalin comes to market. Zevalin is in clinical trials and is designed to treat more aggressive forms of lymphomas that are resistant to existing therapies. It is anticipated that IDEC will file for FDA approval for the drug later this year.

Profiting Not Just Profits
Only a handful of biotechs making a buck and it`s expected that they`ll see profits rise an average 21% over year-ago figures. At the same time, solid second-quarter drug sales will help boost the egos and image of the biotechs.

Then there are the biotech companies that are research outfits and aren`t making a penny. Obviously, they won`t be releasing killer earnings, but it`s their research that will grab the attention of investors. One such company is Millennium Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq:MLNM - news), which is a genomic company with cutting-edge science and technology.

Millennium recently delivered four gene targets relating to brain disorders to its research partner, Wyeth-Ayerst, a division of American Home Products (NYSE:AHP - news). It is moments like these that will help Millennium become successful with milestone payments, a track record and continued collaborations that will keep investors smiling and prosperous. This is a genomic company with a quality business model. If you can catch it on a dip, it`s a buying opportunity.

For the early-stage biotechnology company, traditional methods of stock evaluation definitely take a back seat to science. When you consider investing in biotechnology stocks, it is the science that is often a difficult concept to translate into hard numbers. What investors need to question is whether the science works.

With that in mind, the outlook for the remainder of 2000 is quite promising, especially when fall approaches. Scientific conferences will commence, enabling biotech companies a chance to talk and present the latest and greatest on their experimental drugs. I anticipate the sector will be the place for the smart money.

Nadine Wong is editor and publisher of the BioTech Sage Report (www.biotechnav.com), the leading biotech investment newsletter in the nation. Her weekly column looks at the hottest stocks in the biotech sector. Wong currently has positions in Amgen and Immunex. Positions can change at any time.

Go to www.worldlyinvestor.com to see all of our latest stories.

Mfg MH