Technical Analysis- NASDAQ - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Waron]

hi,
guter artikel

http://www.stockhouse.com/shfn/may00/053000com_techus.asp

With the medium term picture for the NASDAQ looking like it is about to reverse to the up side, a closer look at the bottom reveals
why these new lows are more bullish than the previous lows of April 17. Once the up move gets underway, a climb to the 4400 level
over a period of about eight weeks is likely.

Toronto, ONT, May 30 /SHfn/ -- As suggested earlier this week, the technical picture is now more bullish for the NASDAQ than it was a week ago, partly because the
TVAL elasticity readings indicate that we are close to hammering out a bottom.

In the short term, I still believe we are trying to establish a bottom. This up and down action still reflects the uncertainty about the immediate future. But one key is that
volume has dipped and only on the up days. I expect that we will spend most of the coming week in rally mode, trying to work back to 3500.

The question going forward is not whether this is the bottom but what the buying will look like on the next up move.

The ALR value for this wave is now -65 degrees. Before the selling this past week took the NASDAQ to new lows, the ALR value from peak to trough was -49 degrees.
Because the buy/sell force is always a function of both time and distance, the wave ratios are now more positive. Even though this wave has extended further down than the
previous lows of April, it did so after taking more time. The result is a wave that has a weaker cycle balance ratio. At the same time, the PX Ratio is more positive and,
since the PX ratio counts almost twice in determining the overall wave structure ratios (the comp ratio), the situation is overall better.



The second reason for being bullish is that had the index not made new lows, the ALR reading on the up wave from the lowest point was very flat. Now, with a new low
established, and a more favorable PX ratio, we can project an ALR value of 43 degrees with projection limits of plus or minus 15 degrees. The projected cycle duration is
approx. 8 weeks and this would give us an up side target of 4435.

If the index can trade at or above the upper limit of ALR projection line, then new highs are likely later this year. But if it trades at or below the lower limit, then we are
looking at another medium strength down wave beginning by late summer.


waron

[german]

Have a look on this web-page - chart-analysis of Dow and Nasdaq:

http://www.signalwatch.com/signalwatch/market_to_print.asp

german