Carrier 1 - Facts und Figures - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[creatifix]

Bevor wir hier in Angst und Hoffnung verzweifeln möchte ich hier einen Thread öffnen, welche nur recherchierte Facts und Figures platz finden.

Als erstes habe ich einmal die Kosten für einen Meter verlegtes Glasfaserkabel recherchiert.

Laut Colt Telecom soll sich in Deutschland ein Meter Glasfaser im Durchschnitt auf ca. 800 DM belaufen.

Details sind zu finden in FUNKSCHAU 5/2001
http://www.funkschau-handel.de/heftarchiv/pdf/2001/fs0501/FS…

[creatifix]

Sorry ... 800 DM in städtischen Gebieten

[CrazyBroker]

Das bekommst Du auch billiger, bei cone!

14.000km=14.000.000 Meter / 47.000.000 Aktien= 0,3m pro Aktie.

also für ca. 3 Aktien= ca. 6DM bekommst Du 1m verlegtes Glasfaserkabel.

Bye Hansi..soll aber Leute geben, die glauben das geht noch günstiger

[creatifix]

Könnte was dran sein.
Aber von den 140000 km sind leider nur ein Bruchteil con C1 selber verlegt worden. Der Rest ist gemietet. Bin am zusammenstellen der wirlich verlegten Kilometer in den städtischen Netzen.

[creatifix]

Carrier 1 Glasfasernetze:

German Network : 2400 km (Verbindet Berlin,
Bremen, Köln, Dortmund, Dresden, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig, Mannheim,
München, Nürnberg, und Stuttgart). Erstellungskosten mit Konsortium Viatel und Metromedia. Kostenanteil waren ca 125 Mio$. (Anteil am Konsortium - Viatel 50.2%, Metromedia & Carrier 1 je 24.9%
Western Ring: 2200 km (Verbindet Paris, Strasbourg, Frankfurt, Amsterdam und London). Als ITU Agreement für 15 Jahre gepachtet. Kosten ???
French Network: 2650 km ( Verbindet 14 Grossstädte miteinander, aktiviert sind zurzeit Paris, Lyon und Marseilles). Austausch Agreement (2 Leitungskanäle aus dem German Network gegen Leitungskapazität im French Network)
Scandinavian Network: 2000 km (Verbindet Stockholm, Oslo, Göteborg und Malmö mit Hamburg) ITU Agreement 18 Jahre Kosten ???
Amsterdam Network: 40 km Inner City Net und 70 km greather Amsterdam Net. Kosten ca. 20-40 Mio €
Paris Network: 32 km inner City Network. Kosten ca. 13 Mio €
London Network: ??km als ITU Agreement
8*STM-1 (155 Mbps) transantlantik Kabel gemietet

Zusätzlich geleaste Kapazitäten in folgenden Städten Madrid, Manchester, Oslo, Prag, Rom, Stockholm , Wien Chicago, San Jose and Washington, DC.

[creatifix]

Neu geplant in 2001 sind:

German Network :Verbindung von Berlin nach Bielefeld, Hanover und Magdenburg, (eigene Leistung)
U.K. Network: 1400 km (Verbindet Liverpool , London, Birmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Leeds,
Leicester, Manchester, Nottingham und Sheffield.) IRU Agreement mit 360networks inc. auf 20 Jahre. Im Austausch liefert Carrier 1 Kapazität in seinen German, Paris und Amsterdam City Netzten. (Um Kosten zu senken)
Southern European Network: 2500 km Netzwerkring mit Start in Frankfurt und verbindet die Städte Paris, Strasbourg, Lyon, Grenoble , Marseilles,Genf, Basel, Zürich Genua und Mailand.

Hier dürften die Kosten so bei 20-40€ pro Meter liegen

Weiter in Planung sind :
City Netzwerke in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Genf, The Hague, Hamburg, Hanover, London, Milan, München und Rotterdam sowie ein zweiter Ring in Paris und Amsterdam.

Dies muss ja noch alles finanziert werden. Pro Stadt ergeben sich im Schnitt so ca. 30km Netze a ca 400€ pro Meter = 13 x 30 km = 520 km a 400`000 € pro km = 156 Mio € Investitionen

[CrazyBroker]

@creatifix ,

ich bestreite ja nicht, das noch weitere Investitionen anfallen, aber die werden auch immer mehr aus demn Umsatz finanziert werden und bedürfen nicht unbedingt Fremdgeld.
Cashreserven sind ja auch noch vorhanden und wenn man jetzt mal das letzte Quartal hochrechnet, dann kommen wir wei weiterhin 20% Wachstum auf 108*1,2=129,6 Mio $ Umsatz im 3. und 155 Mio $ im 4. Quartal. Wenn die Kosten also Konstant bleiben dann hieße es, bei Kosten in Höhe von 108 Mio. ( Umsatz Q2) + 59,4 Mio. ( Verlust Q2 )= 167,4 Mio.$ und Einnahmen ( Umsatz Q4 ) von 155 Mio.$ bliebe ohne Einsparungsmaßnahmen nur ein Verlust von 12,4 Mio. $.

Anders gesagt, bei Konstantem Wachstum und Konstanten Kosten könnte Q1 2002 erstmalig ein Gewinn von 155Mio.*1,2=186Mio., 186Mio.-167,4Mio.=18,6 Mio.$ anfallen.

das wären bei 47 Mio. Aktien ca. 40 cent/Aktie in Q1´2002

Wo wäre dann wohl der Kurs?

Bye Hansi carrier 1 wird es schaffen und in 12 Monaten....

[ODDSetFan]

@all

ich sag nur - die Rechnung geht auf - nur wissen das einige noch nicht :-)

Gruß

ODDSetFan

[TheNagus]

@creatifix

danke für die Mühe, gute Übersicht

wems interessiert, auf der Carrier Homepage ist auch noch eine Karte vom Netz, leider nur als PDF Datei

hat jemand evtl. Adressen von Amiboards in welchen über cone diskutiert wird ?

THX

Nagi


.

[springbank]

www.ragingbull.com

[CrazyBroker]

@ODDSetFan ,

selbst wenn das wachstum etwas zurück geht, auf z. Bsp. 10% werden wir nächstes Jahr den Break-Even erreichen können.
Die Kosten für die angemieteten Kabel ändern sich nicht, ob da jetzt Daten drüber transportiert werden oder nicht.

Bye Hansi

[CrazyBroker]

@creatifix ,

selbst wenn nur 1400km cone selbst verlegt hat ( gehören ), kämst du auf lächerliche 60 DM pro Meter.

@all,

Was mir auch gefällt ist die geringe Anzahl Aktien. Andere ehemalige Highflyer haben durch Aktiensplitts und Aktien-Optionsprogramme schon soviele Aktien ausgegeben, das für einen Gewinn von 1€/Aktie schon mehrere Hundert Mio. Gewinn gemacht werden müßen! Bei Cone benötigt man gerade mal einen Gewinn von 47 Mio.! Wenn jetzt der Umsatz mal die Mrd. Grenze erreicht und die Gewinnmarge bei schlappen 5% läge, was wirklich nicht hoch ist, dann sind wir bei 1€ Gewinn/Aktie.

Laß es doch 5 Jahre dauern, Hauptsache es kommt und es wird kommen.

Bye Hansi

[creatifix]

To whom it may concern...

Sources: Company reports and Salomon Smith Barney estimates --------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY:
* Very disappointing quarter, with EBITDA loss doubling to $30m
* Revenues grew 21% quarter to quarter $108m versus our $95m forecast, driven by increased voice traffic
* Gross margin turned negative, due to higher termination costs
* Bad debt provision increased to 15.5% from 7% of revenues
* Cashburn of $100m in quarter; cash balance now stands at $161m
* CEO Stig Johansson resigned; replacement within 30 days
* We reiterate our 3S rating (Neutral, Speculative Risk), and we reduce our price target to $0.35/EUR2 from $4/EUR20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

OPINION:

Carrier1`s 2Q01 results were significantly worse than expected in terms of gross margin and EBITDA, although revenue was higher than expected. Revenues increased 21% quarter on quarter to $108m versus our $95m forecast, while gross margin declined to $(-0.8m) from a positive margin of $4.9m in 1Q01. Meanwhile, EBITDA declined to a loss of $(-29.9m) in 2Q from a $(-14m) loss in 1Q, versus our $(-14m) forecast. This reflected both a deterioration in underlying EBITDA to $(-13.1m) from $(-7.4m) and a significant increase in bad debt provision to $16.8m from $7m. Cash has fallen to $162m from $260m in 1Q, a higher than expected cash burn. The CEO Stig Johansson is being replaced within the next 30 days. The company highlighted a very uncertain outlook, and has not updated its guidance for the year. Given the poor results and uncertain outlook, we see no reason to own Carrier1 today, and reiterate our 3S (Neutral, Speculative Risk) recommendation. We have revised our price target to $0.35/EUR2 from $4/EUR20.

A DIFFICULT QUARTER

Carrier1 had a tough quarter in terms of profitability, with gross margin turning negative and the EBITDA loss growing significantly due to bad debt write offs, highlighting the turmoil currently being experienced in European telecoms markets. Stig Johansson, founder, President and CEO, is retiring and a replacement CEO is promised within 30 days.

STRONG REVENUE GROWTH, BUT MAINLY VOICE

Revenues grew strongly in the quarter, up 21% to $108m (compared with our forecast of $95m). However, voice revenues provided the bulk of growth (+$10m out of $18.4m growth), and grew almost as much in % terms (18%) as data revenues (24%). This strong growth in voice revenue (compared to a decline in 1Q01) reflected the shakeout in telecoms markets during the second quarter, with Carrier1 picking up traffic as competitors exited the market. Non-recurring infrastructure sales also increased, to $10m from $8m in 1Q01. Net net, the voice:data mix (excluding non-recurring revenues) only fell to 71% from 72% compared with our forecast of 66%.

GROSS MARGINS TURNED NEGATIVE

Despite the strong revenue growth, Carrier1`s gross margin went from a profit of $4.9m in 1Q01 to a loss of $(-0.8m) in 2Q01. Carrier1 attributes this to an increase in call termination costs for voice services, as the number of carriers offering call termination services fell. It appears that Carrier1`s policy of disconnecting high credit risk customers also removed some of its suppliers, given the overlap between customers and suppliers. Hence, Carrier1 faced increasing costs while being locked into short term fixed price contracts with its customers. A second factor behind the margin deterioration was that 1Q01 margin was boosted by a high margin infrastructure sale, whereas the 2Q01 infrastructure sales were mainly network swap-type arrangements, with a corresponding cost, i.e. low margin.

SG&A (PRE BAD DEBT) HELD CONSTANT, BUT HIGH BAD DEBT

Carrier1 managed to hold underlying SG&A at $12.3m. However, bad debt provisions increased substantially to $16.8m (15.5% of sales) from $7m (7.8% of sales), with the 2Q01 provision split 50:50 between actual bad debt costs from bankruptcy among Carrier1 and a reserve for receivables risks from customers denied service by Carrier1. Hence, total SG&A including bad debt increased to $29m from $19m.

EBITDA LOSS GREW

A combination of declining gross margin and increased SG&A led to a significant deterioration in EBITDA loss, to $30m in 2Q01 from $14m in 1Q01.

LIQUIDITY

Carrier1`s cash position deteriorated significantly in the quarter, by $100m, to $161.5m from $261m in 1Q01. Note that $28m of this cash position is restricted in some manner. The $100m cashburn is made up of: capex of $43.8m (down from $109m in 1Q01); currency $10m; EBITDA loss, $30m; $8m cash interest, plus other so far unpublished cashflows (increase in receivables?).

This cash balance of $162m compares with the company`s forecast of $200m by year-end, which now clearly looks unachievable. The company is keen to highlight likely cash inflows of $40m by year end relating to VAT refunds, but is not willing as of yet to revise its estimate of dark fiber cash receipts for 2001 (currently $40-$50m). The company states that the cash position has largely stabilized and stood at about $160m in mid-August. Carrier1 is also reconsidering all capex plans, as evidenced by the significant reduction from Q1 to Q2.

OUTLOOK

Carrier1 is not prepared to update its outlook for the year until the new CEO is in place and it has completed its strategic review. As well as completing its process of removing unprofitable/bad debt risk customers, the company clearly needs to address the underlying unprofitable nature of the business in 2Q, with negative gross margins. The only bright spot at present appears to be Carrier1`s relationship with AOL, with AOL have just extended and expanded its UK flat rate internet access contract until 2004. For the record, the company`s current guidance for 2001 is as follows: revenues of $390m-$400m, EBITDA of $(-12m)-$(-17m) loss including bad debt, capex of $200m, and cash receipts from capacity sales of $40m-$50m. The revenue guidance looks achievable; but the EBITDA guidance does not. We have revised down our 2001 EBITDA forecast to $(-62)m.

BROADER IMPLICATIONS

Carrier1`s results reflect, we believe, a mix of market and company specific factors; hence we would be cautious about drawing too many inferences for other alternative carriers. However, it is clear that: * Supply and competition on pan-European long distance routes (for voice, internet transit and bandwidth) is falling rapidly, as marginal players (i.e. those typically reselling facilities from network owners) exit the business either through lack of capital or because other operators (such as Carrier1) refuse to deal with them. The falling competition caused Carrier1 to suffer increased call termination prices * Likewise, there has been a fall in domestic-focussed voice resellers, which will benefit the incumbents (e.g. Deutsche Telekom) (DT, 3M, TP $31, close $18.15) * According to carrier1, many operators are now curtailing local network builds (including Carrier1), which will benefit the well established CLECs (COLT) (COLT, 1S, TP $51, close $16.99) as well as the incumbents. Carrier1`s falling gross margins and significant bad debt are more company-specific, reflecting the company`s decision to stop serving credit risk customers. We do not expect to see similar developments at the more established, end-user focussed altnets (eg COLT, KPNQwest (KQIP, 1S, TP $31, close $9.07) and Energis (ENGSY, 1H, TP $23, close $6.79).

INVESTMENT THESIS

Carrier1 investors have had a hard time since the start of the year, with the company missing 4Q00 guidance due to changes in accounting treatment of revenues, then having to restate 4Q00 results (which led to the departure of the CFO), and finally admitting to serious bad debt problems which meant that the company would miss its 2001 guidance given in December 2000. We remain neutral on Carrier1 given both the poor 2Q01 results and the lack of visibility going forward. Given $161m of cash in the bank (of which $28m is restricted), and cash burn of $100m in the last quarter, Carrier1 needs to demonstrate relatively quickly that it can get back on track in terms of moving towards EBITDA breakeven.