NDX vs VIX - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[GSG9]

"If the VIX is low, it`s time to go"
"If the VIX is high, it`s time to buy"

Gruß
GSG9

[GSG9]

[siscoinvestor]

@gsg9

der gegenpart der nasdaq ist der vxn! der vix bezieht sich übrigens auf den s&p100.

neuen chart bitte - und dann die überraschung!

gruß

si

[GSG9]

Beim vxn fehlt der sell out peak

[siscoinvestor]

der kandidat gewinnt einen blumentopf!

aber schön viel giessen bei dem wetter!

si

[go2hell]

Prima, dann wäre das auch geklärt!! .... im übrigen sieht man in der 10 days hourly Einstellung, daß wir im VXN ein kleines GAP offen gelassen haben!! .... würde mich nicht wundern, wenn wir das noch irgendwann demnäxt schließen! .... heute glaube ich allerdings nicht mehr daran!

hell

[GSG9]

Für den SP100 paßt der Vola Indikator aber vorbildlich

[siscoinvestor]

THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH

Investors hope in market `misplaced`
Aug. 14 CEO deadline, other factors may hinder rebound

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:51 AM ET Aug. 1, 2002


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Christopher Johnson at Schaeffers Investment Research says he sees early signs that investors` pessimism about the stock market is rising.

In the about-face world of a market technician, such a sign may indicate stocks are almost ready for a rebound.

But not just yet.


"Pessimism is something that has been missing from the market since shortly after the Sept. 21 bottom," says Johnson, a senior quantitative analyst whose work on option put-call ratios and other gauges of investors` gut instincts is among the best this country has to offer.

"This short-term increase in pessimism may serve to hold last week`s lows in place as short-term support, while further increases will be necessary before the market can truly move ahead instead of bouncing from a technically oversold position."

When investors by and large are sick of the market, the market is ready to turn higher. Or at least, not plunge below its recent lows. So the thinking goes.

Of course, these days, who wouldn`t be ready to eject stocks lock, stock and barrel? Stocks are expensive but they don`t make folks money. Their death-defying falls and subsequent rises seem to benefit only the brokers, and the dwindling number of executives who still have in-the-money company options.

Still, Investors` Intelligence reports investor sentiment is close to very negative levels. Those who say they are bullish and those who say they are bearish are about neck-and-neck in the sentiment race.

Meanwhile, in the world of market-timing newsletters, Value Line Investment Survey analysts are indicating in their 1,700 stock rankings that the market has overreacted on the downside, according to Mark Hulbert at Hulbert Financial Digest. See the Mark Hulbert story.


Others point to the market`s decline to Dow 7,532 a week ago as a sign that enough investors have sold their shirts, and that true bargain hunters will find true bargains in coming months. "What we have today is a textbook midterm election year bear market," says Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of Almanac Investor newsletter. "This suits us as a fine buying opportunity about to happen."

Hirsch says once investors work through the onslaught of red-ink corporate headlines this summer, the market will flash a seasonal "buy" signal in the autumn. Just when is tough to forecast. August, September and October traditionally are among the very worst months for the U.S. stock market -- "but have also produced important bottoms," Hirsch says.

At Schaeffers Investment Research in Cincinnati, Johnson is tentative. He says one of the central sentiment indicators, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX: news, chart, profile), appeared to indicate it was buying time last week, when the stock market tumbled. The so-called VIX went above 50, a level of investor fear not seen since Sept. 21, 2001, when the stock market started a three-month rebound from its lows.



Alas, buyers arrived. So the VIX, a real-time market estimate of expected volatility that uses S&P 100 index option bid/ask quotes, calmed down and is now at a tranquil 35 or so. "It becomes hard to use a contrarian indicator such as the VIX when seemingly the entire market is watching for it to tick above the 50 level," says Johnson. "It seems this could have been the case last week when buyers rushed into the market, cash in hand, as the VIX crested above a much-publicized move above 50." (The Chicago Board Options Exchange also has a volatility gauge for Nasdaq (VXN: news, chart, profile), called the VXN.)

Johnson is hesitant about declaring an end to the selling because of the CBOE`s equity-only put-call ratio. When the ratio goes above 1, investors are rushing to buy put options, a derivative that makes money when the market falls Alas, the index went above 1 on July 19 but is now back on Valium and well below the 1 level.

"This was one of the indicators that I would have liked to have seen confirm the high VIX readings last week by trading above 1 on the same day that the VIX peaked," Johnson tells me. "Without the confirmation, the chance that we re-test last week`s lows intensifies."

Johnson sees some possible dark clouds on the horizon. His sensitivity to economic figures and news events is what sets Johnson apart from other technical analysts who only use data to interpret investor sentiment.

"Fundamental issues can drag this market down," Johnson says. "Namely, economic data such as the Consumer Price Index, and the Institute for Supply Management numbers that disappointed the market. Additionally, the upcoming CEO sign-off date of Aug. 14, which has the potential to add some more volatility to the market. Bottom line, investors continue to look forward with an increased sense of hope that this fundamentally ailing market does not warrant."

The SEC issued an order last month requiring that chief executives and chief financial officers of 947 of the country`s largest companies pledge under oath and in a sworn statement that their company`s financial statements are truthful and accurate. Their deadline is Aug. 14. The list is growing, but Johnson wonders whether speculation about who won`t sign off on their financial reports might worry investors.

[siscoinvestor]

...
Another ominous sign: the Chicago Board Options Exchange`s market volatility index (VIX), a widely watched ``fear gauge,`` spiked July 24 to levels comparable with those that marked the bottom in September. But instead of slowly declining to moderate levels, it is moving higher again and ``could be signaling another false bottom,`` says Bernie Schaeffer, chairman of Schaeffer`s Investment Research.

The last time the VIX displayed a similar pattern was fall 1998. It hit 53.43 on Sept. 1, when the Standard & Poor`s 500 closed at 994. But the fear gauge didn`t retreat and topped 60 on Oct. 8 as the S&P set a new low of 959. Says Schaeffer: ``It`s possible we`ll see more damage before the ultimate bottom.``

USAtoday.com