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[ThaiGuru]

Eine Board Mail vom Silber Spezialisten "Blecheuro" an ThaiGuru.

9. Feb.2002

Guten Morgen Thai Guru!

Bitte entschuldige, wenn ich Dich um einen Rat bitte.

Ich ringe mit mir und denke darüber nach, all meine Minenwerte am Montag einmal abzustoßen. Die befinden sich alle im Bereich von bzw. über Jahreshochs, zum Teil in der Nähe von2-oder 3-Jahreshochs. Ich denke, die Dinger sind allesamt etwas heißgelaufen und es riecht nach einer Gegenkorrektur, wenn Gold abgleitet und zumindest wieder in den Bereich 290/292 Dollar marschiert. Danach glaube ich allerdings, daß es weiter aufwärts geht. Zur Zeit bin ich über das Gesamtdepot, begonnen am 2.1.2002, mit ca. 20% im Plus.

Was würdest Du machen. Ich selbst werde nicht mit mir einig. Deshalb interessiert mich eine weitere Meinung. Wenn möglich verrate mir das, was Du denkst. Vielleicht eine kleine Mail.

Wenn Gold zurückkommt und Silber nicht seinen eigenen Weg geht, sehe ich für die nächsten Tage nicht gerade besonders rosig. Wie sieht es bei Dir aus?

Gruß

Silbermann

[Blecheuro]

@ Thai Guru

Muß mich sehr wundern, mit welchem Zeitaufwand Du Dich zu wehren versuchst. Empfehle auch Dir, die Zeit besser zu nutzen und Dich um ein nettes Mädel zu kümmern. Das lenkt Dich dann ein bißchen ab und macht Dich locker!

Deine Kopiererei m,acht Dich noch verkrampfter und Gold wärmt Dich im Bett auch nicht auf. Denke mal an etwas anderes!

[Blecheuro]

Sehe eben, daß Thai Guru sich noch ernster nimmt und noch nicht einmal bemerkt, wenn er verarscht wird!

GURU GURU - Du kleiner Dummi Du

[ThaiGuru]

Am 8. Feb. 2002 hat mich Blecheuro zu Hecla befragt!

Hallo Thai Guru!

Ich hoffe es geht Dir gut und Du glaubst noch an das gleiche wie ich. Der Heclabericht gefällt mir nicht. Die Vorwärtsverkäufe "kotzen" mich an. Ich werde deshalb bei diesem Wert keine neuen Positionen eingehen, aber die vorhandenen Bestände weiter halten. Weist Du mehr zu dem Wert Kinross. Wie sieht es hier mit den Vorwärtsverkäufen aus?

Freue mich auf Deine Nachricht.

gruß

Silbermann

[Blecheuro]

Thai Guru

Jetzt leg Deine Puppen ins Bett und suche Dir endlich etwas, das sich bewegt. Penn weiter!

[Blecheuro]

Morgen werde ich Dir noch ein paar Links mailen, damit Du Deine Kopieranstalt besser auslasten kannst.

Stell paar nette Mädels ein, vielleicht fällt für Dich eine ab, wenn der Kopierbetrieb nachläßt, Säugling.

[Blecheuro]

So, Thaibabbeller, ich geht jetzt mit meiner Freundin ins Bett. Geh Du endlich mal auf Brautschau!

[aldibroker]

Es bringt nichts, sich mit anderen Usern persönlich zu fetzen. Wenn wir uns hier auf sachliche Informationen zum Thema Gold, Silber... beschränken, erreichen wir sicher mehr Leser. Deshalb haltet ein und wendet euch wieder der Sache zu. Wer einen anderen User nicht mag, sollte diesen ignorieren. Letztlich fällt jede Beschimpfung, Verunglimpfung, Beleidigung... auch auf den Poster selbst zurück, der sich über andere User ausläßt. Gereifte Persönlichkeiten haben das nicht mehr nötig. Ich wünsche allen Streithähnen zukünftig mehr Einsicht.

Gruss Aldi

[ThaiGuru]

@Blecheuro

Am 10. Februar hast Du mir folgede Boardmail als Dankeschön auf meine Antwort für Deine Anfrage "Verkaufen, oder nicht, das ist hier die Frage?" geschrieben.

Hast Du das alles schon vergessen?

War wohl auch nur Geschwätz von Dir, was Du darin geschrieben hast?

*****************************************************************************************************************************************************


Guten Tag Thai Guru!

Zunächst vielen Dank für Deine Nachricht, mit der Du mir eigentlich sehr geholfen hast. Ich habe einfach mal zwischen den zeilen gelesen und meine Entscheidung getroffen. Ich verkaufe nichts!

Grundsätzlich möchte ich Dir folgendes sagen:

Nie wirst Du von mir hören, ob ich mit Deiner Meinung zufrieden war oder nicht. Die Risiken kenne ich, da ich seit 1975 am Markt bin. Wenn Deine Meinung mich beeinflußt und zum Erfolg führt würde ich Dich sicher loben, aber nie tadeln, wenn es in die falsche Richtung geht.Entscheidungen muß man immer selbst treffen, aber es ist manchmal schwer, endgültig zu handeln, wenn man unsicher ist.

In diesen Fällen ist der eine oder andere Rat oft dienlich. So, wie im jetzt vorliegenden Fall. Von einem steilen Preisanstieg, zumindest bei Silber, bin ich nach wie vor überzeugt. Bei Gold gibt es sehr viele Unsicherheitsfaktoren. Dazwischen aber auch positive Faktoren. Gerade die Goldförderländer ersticken nicht gerade im Reichtum und werden in großem Umfang durch die Industrieländer gestützt, wodurch Geld verbraten wird. Ein steigender Goldpreis würde die Probleme derer lindern, so daß dies eigentlich ein grund wäre, um Gold teurer zu sehen. Zum anderen ist sicher auch kein Notenbanker daran interessiert, das Gold möglichst billig zu verkaufen. Es wäre vielmehr vorstellbar, daß auch eine höhere Bewertung ohne Verkäufe den Bilanzen der Nationen gut täte. Das zum Beispiel sind Faktoren die für einen höheren Goldpreis sprechen.

Also, ich mache es einfach so, wie Du:

Gruß und einen schönen Sonntag noch......

Der Silbermann

[aldibroker]

@ThaiGuru,

eine Bitte, lasse es gut sein. Du machst Dir damit keine neuen Freunde und verlierst alte, selbst wenn Du im Recht sein solltest. Ich lese hier gern, aber nur solange, wie persönliche Dinge aussen vor bleiben. Dazu gibt es die Boardmail.

Gruss Aldi

[Stephen]

Dieses scheint das richtige Forum zu sein!?

Auf Onvista steht der Goldkurs in Euro auf:

WKN: Kurs (20.07.2002 , 13:24) : 334,25

Besteht eine Chance, daß dieser Kurs die Wahrheit spricht

Gruß Stephen

[Sieger2002]

war ein beispielhafter Umgang zwischen dem Guru und dem Silbermann. beachtlich und wieder traurig dass durch andere so viel Glas zerbrochen worden ist.

[ThaiGuru]

@aldibroker

Von welchen Freunden sprichst Du?

Wenn Du von Dir selbst sprechen solltes, frage ich Dich wo Du gewesen bist, als der Blecheuro diesen Thread angefangen hat mit persönlichen Beleidigungen, und falschen Aussagen zuzuschütten, und warum Du heute innerhalb 15 Minuten gleich zwei Postings hier rein gestellt hast, anstatt mir eine Board Mail zu senden.

Dass Du gerne in diesem Thread sachliche Informationen gelesen hast, freut mich. Diese Deine Ansicht beruht auch auf Gegenseitigkeit. Ich lese ebenso gerne in Deinem eigenen sachlich und informativ geführten Thread.

Hingegen Deine Wertung des Wortes "Freund", ist für mich etwas weniger verständlich.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Sieger2002]

Warum wundert sich der Thai Guru, dass er einen Freund haben soll. Ist das was aussergewöhnliches für Thai?

[aldibroker]

@ThaiGuru,

du hast Recht, spätestens das 2. Posting wäre nach meinen eigenen Maßstaben als Boardmail besser gewesen, entschuldige. Auch ich bin fehlbar.

Gruss Aldi

[ThaiGuru]

@Sieger2002

Du "blechelst" mir etwas zu stark!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

July 21 - Gold $323.90 - Silver $5.08

The Significance of Understanding "Gibson`s Paradox and the Gold Standard”

Global Investment Research

Barton M. Biggs

“It certainly is possible that gold can return to its long-term equilibrium inflation price of $500 an ounce, or even take a run at its all-time high of close to $1,000. What would cause such an explosion? A steep decline in the equities market, higher inflation, or competitive devaluation of the major currencies. In a bleak world, gold could beat almost everything else.”

Biggs is one of the most respected men on Wall Street, although that is not saying much these days. For him to even mention $500/$1,000 gold is profoundly significant. Men, like him, do not utter outrageous numbers like this even in serious private conversations, much less put those kind of numbers up in writing.

Biggs is an icon in the Wall Street world. What is going on here? Gold Field Mineral Services, the flunky, bullion dealer apologist organization upped its forecast for gold a couple of months ago to a range of $285 to $315. Biggs Wall Street colleagues in the bullion dealer houses partly fund this gold industry organization. Aside from the recent HSBC analyst gold forecast, the only other bullion dealer bullish gold forecast I know of is that of John Reade of UBS Warburg. He went out on a limb last week predicting gold could actually rally to $330. Officially, the other bullion dealer houses are either bearish or neutral.

That is why this Biggs report is so extraordinary. Talk about disconnects from the rest of his crowd! What is going on here?

This is a weekend, so I will get right to what I think is the nitty-gritty.

Morgan Stanley is part of the cabal. Biggs know exactly what has gone on for many years. As a result of the events of the past 10 months, he probably knows The Gold Cartel is going to be forced to capitulate. He knows that is going to be one nasty financial happening. Whether Morgan Stanley will be implicated in the coming gold scandal, or have subsequent financial problems because of a gold price explosion is anybody’s guess. They may be only manipulating the gold price on behalf of the ESF.

The bottom line is that this report appears to me to be designed to give Morgan Stanley some cover when the price of gold rockets higher. The last thing MS wants is to be implicated in the coming gold scandal by an already outraged American public, that is just beginning to realize how corrupt Wall Street is.

But, there is more.

"Gibson`s Paradox and the Gold Standard" is the key. The intellectually dishonest Peter Palmedo presented Reg Howe’s discovery and analysis to Biggs without any attribution to Reg. If he did so, and Biggs failed to mentioned Reg, then I will call up Morgan Stanley and demand an explanation.

I know exactly what I am talking about on this basic subject. For years GATA was poo-poohed by “ignorants” in the gold establishment world. The same sort of people that have been ignorant about the doings of Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom, etc. Part of the “ignorants” problem is that they did not get the motive of these corporations, nor that of The Gold Cartel. It is called greed , accomplished by deception.

That is where "Gibson`s Paradox and the Gold Standard" and Biggs clicks in. Once you understand what Clinton, Rubin, Summers and Greenspan did and WHY, then you can understand what few others know outside of the GATA world. You know the motive for the rigging of the gold price all these years. The Ah-Hah bell goes off.

Clinton, Rubin, Summers and Greenspan set “irrational exuberance” in motion and allowed it to flourish, in part by rigging the price of gold. It kept interest rates lower than they would have been and the dollar and stock market far stronger than they would have been otherwise. The essence of the famed strong dollar policy was the rigging of the price of gold. That is partly how the “bubble” came to be. What the Rubin crowd concocted, is now unraveling. One could do an entire treatise on this subject, but that is not where I am taking this.

What GATA has presented to the world is public information. All Biggs had to do was have any of his “quants” do their homework about what Reg Howe and GATA have discovered. Biggs HAS to know what GATA knows. That is: what Rubin and Greenspan set in motion is a financial nightmare waiting to happen: the central bank gold used to keep gold at artificially low prices can never be paid back, except at astronomical prices. That is why he has thrown around almost heretical gold price numbers like $500/$1,000 per ounce.

The myopic Gold Cartel is like a heroin addict. The gold deficit is some 1700 tonnes per year. That deficit must be met by central bank gold. As soon as they stop feeding that deficit with it’s FIX, the price of gold will explode. That means the cabal needs to find 130 tonnes of new gold every month to keep the gold price from going sharply higher. More than likely, Biggs knows they are running out of sources of physical metal to hold the price of gold down. He must also know of the gold neutron derivative bomb that lurks less than $10 above Friday’s close. Once that goes off, a gold buying panic could set in that could dwarf a potential stock market panic.

You had better believe he spoke to Morgan Stanley’s gold traders before this was ever allowed in print. Those traders cannot be oblivious to what has transpired these past many years. I cannot stress this enough. The Bigg’s gold report is no less than ASTONISHING and is very meaningful in my book!

There are many new Café members. I urge all of you to read Reg Howe’s historic discovery and analysis immediately, if you have not done so already. It will help you appreciate what The Gold Cartel did and why. It will you understand why the price of gold is going to go bonkers. I will make it easy for you. Go here:

http://209.41.120.60/pfv.cfm?pfvID=1659

The gold world owes Reg a debt of gratitude for all he has done. It is about time that be recognized by the disingenuous establishment.

GATA is on a roll. The Al-Hayat story was a home run for us and for its potential impact on future gold demand. GATA’s Chris Powell put it this way in his dispatch:

“Here`s the English translation of the story about GATA and the interview with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy published Friday by the international Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat, which is based in London and read throughout the Arab world and Israel. Al-Hayat was mentioned in U.S. news reports just a few weeks ago when, recognizing the newspaper`s great influence, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell gave it an exclusive interview and made important comments about U.S. foreign policy.

“GATA has high hopes that Al-Hayat`s work will have a huge impact on the gold market, and we are deeply grateful to the newspaper for its interest.”

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Japan Times

Koizumi stands firm on deposit refund limit

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on Friday rejected calls from senior legislators and bankers to postpone plans to cap deposit guarantees at failed banks, scheduled to take effect April 1.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Tippgeber1]

@Stephen

Muß bei Onvista wohl ein Fehler sein.

Habe bei comdirect und n-tv nachgeschaut und sehe folgende Kurse

Gold
323,90$

Silber

5,05$


Gruß

Tippi

[Tippgeber1]

Gold steigt soeben auf 325,50$!!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/recession/story/0,7369,756011,00.h…

On the edge of a precipice

The US stock market collapse could trigger the biggest global recession since the 1930s

Larry Elliott, economics editor

Tuesday July 16, 2002

The Guardian

Three years ago Time magazine carried an article by James Cramer, the founder of TheStreet.com, an online magazine fully dedicated to the worship of mammon. Extolling the virtues of a life dedicated to buying and selling shares from home, it was called "Yeah, Day Traders!" Cramer`s message was simple. Forget teaching, forget tilling the land, forget making trucks or mending bones; instead make a living from speculation. There had, the article insisted, never been a better time "to trade for a living".

In his splendid book on the triumph of extreme capitalism*, Thomas Frank called 1999 the summer of corporate love, and he was spot on. Just as in 1967, the promise was of liberation from the straight world of the past; the difference was that the drug of choice was not LSD but money. And the gurus of the revolution were not the Beatles and the Stones, but men like Cramer and James Glassman, who predicted that the Dow Jones industrial average would not stop at 10,000 but rise inexorably to 36,000. A suitable epitaph for the summer of corporate love would be John Lennon`s for the Beatles when they split up three years after Sgt Pepper: "The dream is over."

Today the talk is not of when the Dow will hit 36,000 but how low it will go. Today, a magazine that used the headline "Yeah, Day Traders!" would be in danger of being torched by the small army of investors who have seen the value of their portfolios shrivel since the bubble burst in the spring of 2000. Today, the issue is whether the price of collective market insanity will be a serious global recession or, even worse, a full-blown slump.

There is an army of pundits out there willing to say that there is little to worry about. Policy makers everywhere are oozing reassurance, intoning the mantra that the economic vibes are good. Lawrence Lindsey, George Bush`s economic adviser, was at it in the Financial Times yesterday, insisting that a recession in the US was "unlikely".

In reality, of course, nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. Financial analysts have their charts which are supposed to be able to predict the future from the past, and these now spell trouble. Economists who look at the hard economic data say that cheaper money and higher spending means things are getting better. But both presuppose that economics is a science rather than a modern form of alchemy, and that the practitioners in its black arts are anything more than highly-paid witch doctors. The only theory that is really relevant to the stock market is chaos theory. The recent history of the dollar is a case in point. For at least the past five years, the strength of the US currency has been eating into corporate profitability and contributing to a record trade deficit. Markets knew that the dollar was overvalued, but kept on buying it regardless. Over the past two months, the mood has changed and the dollar has fallen by 14% against the euro, breaking through the one-for-one parity level yesterday for the first time in more than two years. When will the fall be arrested? Who knows? On some estimates, the dollar is still 30% overvalued, but a rapid fall of that size would feed back into the equity markets, with foreign investors rushing for the door.

All of which explains why policymakers are a lot more concerned about the recent downward spasm in share prices than they are letting on. The sharp fall in American consumer confidence reported last Friday was a clear indication that the public mood has been affected by the declines on Wall Street triggered by the $3.8bn accounting fraud at WorldCom. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, America`s central bank, is giving testimony to Congress today but his words will be less important than the Fed`s actions when it meets next month to set interest rates.

Greenspan`s real fear is that the US economy will become locked in a downward spiral in which falling share prices lead to weak consumption, which in turn puts pressure on company profits and - eventually - the financial system itself. Asset prices would collapse and corporations be forced to slash prices in order to generate cash flow, leading to a period of deflation in which lower interest rates failed to stimulate growth. It could never happen, say the optimists. In fact, it already has - in the world`s second largest economy, Japan. There, the country has had four recessions since its bubble burst at the end of the 1980s. Prices are falling, consumers are hoarding cash; it would take but one more shove to push the banks over the edge into systemic crisis. Greenspan has been studying a voluminous report he ordered into the Japanese experience; that`s how worried he is.

The best that can be hoped for is that there are no more stories of boardroom wrongdoing over the coming weeks, and that some better (and honest) figures from some of the titans of corporate America produce a rapid recovery in share prices, which then boosts consumer spending. This would not provide a cure for the economy`s ills, which are caused by excessive hi-tech investment and excessive borrowing during the bubble years, but it would at least buy Greenspan some time.

Far more worrying would be a continuation of the falls in share prices over the next couple of weeks. In those circumstances, the Fed would then come under strong pressure to cut interest rates at its August meeting, and would almost certainly bow to it. There is, however, no guarantee that it would be effective in restoring confidence. Why? Firstly, it would be a small cut of only 0.25 percentage points from the already low level of 1.75%. Secondly, it might be counter-productive, seen as a sign that the Fed was panicking (which it would be). Finally, the relevant level of interest rates is the one being paid by companies and consumers on their loans. These have not been coming down nearly quickly enough to prevent financial distress.

The underlying problem is that since the mid-1990s, share prices are up by 200% but corporate profits - as measured by sober government statisticians rather than dodgy auditors - have risen by 40%. It is conceivable that Greenspan would have to cut, cut and cut again before Wall Street responded. Even then (and assuming there is no invasion of Iraq to complicate matters), there is a risk that the easing of policy will simply lead to a re-run of this year - a short-lived burst of euphoria followed by the realisation that companies cannot produce the earnings expected of them. Greenspan and Bush would then be in an even worse quandary than they are now, having used up nearly all the shots in their locker. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan - heavily dependent on a US recovery to keep their economies ticking over - would be faced with the prospect of deep, prolonged recession.

If this sounds gloomy, that`s because it is. It would be the most critical moment for the global economy since the 1930s. There would, however, be one silver lining: people would ask how we got into this mess in the first place. The answer is that policy makers, dazzled by Cramer, Glassman and their friends in the financial markets, deliberately removed the brake pedal from global capitalism. And, as any engineer knows, the brake pedal is what allows the machine to travel safely at speed. Without it there are only two speeds - dangerously fast and dead slow.

*One Market Under God, Thomas Frank (Secker and Warburg)

[e-mail]



Gold und Silber!

Wer noch keines hat, sollte sich besser etwas beeilen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

New Zealand, NZSE 40, zur Zeit 2,37% im Minus!

Ihr solltet diesen Link heute öfters betätigen

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Tippgeber1]

Der Link ist ja Klasse Thai. Habe ich gleich unter meinen Favoriten gespeichert.

[Tippgeber1]

Gold schon bei 325,80$
Jetzt geht die Party richtig los. Die US Futures tief im Minus.

Gruß

Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

Es fehlen gerade nur noch 19 Punkte, und der NIKKEI wäre wieder 4 stellig!

Zur Zeit minus 180 Punkte

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Dottore Lupo]

Man macht immer den gleichen gedanklichen Fehler..der Nikkei heute wird mit dem Dow heute verglichen!!

Das wahre Ausmass des Desasters eröffnet sich wenn man den nikkei von 40.000 mit dem damaligen Dow-Stand vergleicht....da hat der Schlitzi noch schlappe 5% von damals....könnte jemand mal diesen Chart reintun???

Und den Aussies geht die Kohle aus...so schwach haben die Minen noch nie reagiert...ein Trauerspiel.

cu DL

[Tippgeber1]

Der Nikkei bei 10232,23 mit 0,3% im Plus.
Unglaubliche Schwankungen in diesem Markt.


Gold bei 324,40$

Silber 5,07$

cu Senor Tippi

[mickym [VIP]]

@DL

Finde es zwar nicht besonders aussagekräftig.



Gruss Mic

[Sieger2002]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Sieger2002]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.prline.com/affiche.asp?Doc_id=134262&langue=EN

SG to become a member of the London Gold Fixing

SG, the corporate and investment banking arm of the Société Générale Group, is pleased to announce that it will become a member of the London Gold Market Fixing Limited and take a seat on the London Gold Fixing with effect from August 2002. SG will take up the seat made available by the withdrawal of Credit Suisse First Boston International.

`We are honored and pleased to become a member of the London Gold Fixing which is at the heart of the Bullion Market since its creation` states Xavier Debonneuil, SG Chief Executive Officer.`After having been granted the status of market maker last June, this reinforces our longstanding commitment to the Bullion market, and gives us an additional strength to offer new services to our customers in the field of precious metals.`

The five Gold Fixing Members meet twice a day in London at the offices of the Fixing Chairman, NM Rothschild & Sons Limited, to determine and publish a single fixing price. London is home to the unique service of this price discovery mechanism, where Fixing Members collect orders until an equilibrium price is established matching global buying and selling interests.

Clive Turner Chairman of the London Gold Fixing welcomed SG becoming a member of the fixing. He said `the addition of such a strong committed house as SG would serve to underline the continued importance of the London Gold Fixing in providing the twice daily benchmark for the worlds gold price.

`From August 2002 the five fixing members will be Deutsche Bank, HSBC Bank USA, N.M.Rothschild & Sons Ltd, Scotia Mocatta and Société Générale.

Société Générale

Stéphanie CARSON-PARKER - Tél. : [phone]

COMM/PRS - Tel [phone]

Tour Société Générale - 92987 Paris - La Défense Cedex - France

Fax [phone]

Société Anonyme au capital de EUR 530 423 152,50552 120 222 R.C.S. Paris

Internet : http://www.socgen.com


Ob sich dadurch irgend etwas ändert, ist fraglich?
Die Zusammensetzung des "London Gold Fixing Pool", Betonung liegt auf "Fixing" erscheint mir, trotz, oder gerade wegen Société Anonyme, immer noch nicht vertrauenswürdig zu sein, wenn man die Querverbindungen mit der "privaten!" Firma "Federal Reserve Bank of Amerika", *FED* und den dortigen teilweisen, identischen Besitzverhältnissen als Vergleich hinzuzieht!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ameinfo.com/cgi-bin/fndaily/listnews.cgi?#7220208…

Gold plan for retail investors

Posted: July 22nd, 2002

Standard Bank has launched a capital guaranteed investment product linked to the price of gold.
The Gold Linked Deposit Account pays a minimum of two per cent interest, and investors will earn 10 per cent if the gold price passes USD400 on any business day during the period of the deposit. The minimum investment is 10,000 pounds sterling.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_633835.html?menu=

Newcrest Mining FY gold production 644,626 ounces vs 773,352.

Newcrest Mining Ltd said it recorded gold production of 644,626 ounces for the year to June, down from 773,352 a year earlier.

The company said the total cash cost during the year was at 253 aud per ounce, down from 290 a year ago, while total production costs fell to 414 aud from 439 aud per ounce.

In the June quarter, gold production was 169,510 ounces, down from 202,223 in the June quarter of 2001, with the total cash cost 230 aud and total production cost 396 aud per ounce, down from 289 and 438 a year earlier.

Copper production for the year to June was 40,055 tonnes, down from 135,546 tonnes. Production for the June quarter fell to 16,250 tonnes from 27,045 a year earlier.

Newcrest said it achieved a gold price for the quarter of 524 aud per ounce.

The amount of gold hedged now represents 21% of reserves of 28.5 million ounces and 11% of resources of 54 million ounces.

At 12.05 pm, Newcrest Mining was up 0.08 aud at 6.84.

The S&P/ASX 200 was down 34.5 points at 3,074.7.

© AFX News

Story filed: 03:44 Monday 22nd July 2002

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Companies/0,4186,2-8-24…

22/07/2002 10:10 - (SA) E-mail story to a friend

UBS Warburg cuts mining targets

London - Investment bank UBS Warburg said on Monday it cut its price targets on mining firms Rio Tinto Plc, BHP Billiton Plc and Anglo American Plc because of the stronger rand and Australian dollar.

UBS cut its target for Rio Tinto to 1 400 pence from 1 650p, BHP Billiton to 425p from 475p, and Anglo American to 1 300p from 1 450p.

"The reason simply is lower earnings because of the relative strength of the Australian dollar and the rand against the US dollar," said Paul Galloway of UBS.

UBS was still positive on the sector and kept its "buy" rating on all the stocks, Galloway said.

At 09:44 Anglo American`s shares were down 1.8% to 1 007 pence, Rio Tinto`s shares were off 2.6% to 1 120p, and BHP Billiton`s shares were down 0.3% at 314p.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thewest.com.au/20020722/business/tw-business-home…

Bullion price rally helps gold stocks shine

A SHARP rally in bullion prices has helped gold stocks shine a glimmer of hope through the dark mood gripping markets.

Shares in Australia`s gold mining companies were among the few to move higher in the face of today`s broad sell-off.

Papua New Guinean-based Lihir Gold led the sector higher, jumping 11 cents, or more than 8.7 per cent, to $1.37.

A better-than-expected June quarter production report helped market major Newcrest Mining Ltd add 14 cents to $6.90 and Placer Dome takeover target AurionGold Ltd was 12 cents stronger at $3.70.

Elsewhere, Newmont Mining`s receipts were up eight cents to $4.85, but locally listed shares in South Africa`s AngloGold gave up early gains to finish 35 cents lower at $9.45.

"Gold equities have a very low correlation with the general equity market, they`re counter-cyclical," said UBS Warburg Gold analyst Shaun Giacomo.

"In these sorts of times gold is one of those investment classes that tends to lag moves in broader equity markets.

"Any heightened tension such as this is generally beneficial for gold," he said.

By contrast, Australia`s benchmark S&P/ASX200 lost 19.8 points, or about 0.6 per cent, finishing at a nine month low of 3089.4.

The market fell more than two per cent in early trade after Wall Street`s massive slide on Friday.

JB Were`s Queensland manager Colin McKenzie noted defensive stocks were the ones to emerge as winners from today`s volatility.

"Where there is a certainty of earnings the market is still willing to pay for it," he said.

Global jitters also sent buyers back into physical gold.

Spot gold in Sydney jumped $US5.40 from Friday`s close to $US324.25 per fine ounce.

Mr Giacomo said the longer term outlook for the gold sector was positive.

"Equity prices are being supported and then we`ve got the consolidation theme that continues to persist in the global mining industry," he said.

"(Gold stocks) are defensive ... if the broader market is going nasty there are some defensive characteristics there that investors look for."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.forbes.com/technology/newswire/2002/07/22/rtr6694…



GLOBAL MARKETS-More misery for stocks, bonds, gold benefit!

Reuters, 07.22.02, 7:03 AM ET

By Gerrard Raven

LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - Share markets suffered further misery on Monday as investors feared another drop on Wall Street, noting that after the debacle there on Friday a stock exchange chief had felt it necessary to appeal for calm.

European government bonds and gold rose as investors looked for safer havens to park their money where it would not get drenched by the storm clouds overhanging the bourses.

The dollar, however, traded quietly after its steep losses in recent weeks as operators waited to see how news that telecoms giant WorldCom (nasdaq: WCOM - news - people) had filed for the biggest bankruptcy protection in U.S. history would go down with jittery investors.

"The news of WorldCom`s bankruptcy should have been priced in, but will it affect retail sentiment when the market opens?" said Russell Jones, head of foreign exchange trading at Lehman Brothers.

"It all depends on what happens when the bell rings on Wall Street."

U.S. markets fell savagely on Friday, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropping 4.65 percent and the broader Standard & Poor`s 500 Index <.SPX> down 3.84 percent.

There looked little prospect of a bounce from the lows last seen in 1998 with the S&P 500 index futures, a key U.S. share market indicator, trading around five points lower at 839 in London.

"People are all waiting for us to hit a bottom but it`s not happening," said Petra Kerssenbrock, stock index analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

In Europe, the FTSE Eurotop 300 index <.FTEU3> of pan-European blue chips was 1.73 percent lower while the narrower DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index <.STOXX50E> fell 2.23 percent.

Both were above levels reached in early trade, but the recovery was not helped when Germany`s BDB banking association said the economic perspectives for the euro zone had worsened and it was unlikely to achieve 1.4 percent growth this year.

Insurers were hit particularly hard after Dutch Aegon <AEGN.AS> issued a profit warning, saying its 2002 net figure would be 30 to 35 percent lower than its earlier forecast due to corporate defaults, a weaker dollar and slumping stock markets.

Its shares tumbled by over 15 percent.

WALL STREET WATCH

The continuing downtrend in share prices has triggered thoughts of a "Black Monday" similar to the plunge which hit Wall Street in October 1987.

In a television interview on Sunday, Richard Grasso, head of the New York Stock Exchange, warned that Wall Street may continue its rough ride on Monday, urging investors to stay calm and focus on the wisdom of long-term investing.

"Mondays following Friday declines have always been difficult and I suspect tomorrow will be no different," he said. "Please be patient. Please don`t do something that emotionally feels good but in the long term will be a mistake."

Earlier, while other Asian bourses wilted, the Tokyo stock market recovered from early five-month lows to end more or less flat, regaining ground on a rise in banks.

The benchmark Nikkei average <.N225> closed down 0.13 percent at 10,189.01 after losing more than two percent to 9,982.24 at one stage -- below the psychologically important 10,000 mark for the first time in five months.

BONDS, DOLLAR

The sinking stock markets pushed up bond prices, driving euro zone government debt yields lower.

The interest rate sensitive two year Schatz yield <EU2YT=RR> was down almost three basis points at 3.766 percent, having fallen within sight of five-month lows hit last week at 3.747 percent.

The benchmark 10-year Bund yield <EU10YT=RR> fell as far as 4.806 percent -- within a whisker of last week`s five-month troughs at 4.805 percent, before recovering to 4.820 percent.

"Market moves are predictable because of the equity weakness and we are seeing a steepening in the yield curve as people look for value in cash bonds," said David Keeble, fixed income analyst at UBM in Milan.

The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries <US10YT=RR> was marginally lower at 4.5109 percent.

The dollar steadied a cent above last week`s 2-1/2 year low against the euro while a reminder that Japan was prepared to take action to curb the yen`s export-damaging strength also supported the greenback, lifting it to 116.24 <JPY=>.

Dealers said investors had already bet heavily against the dollar in recent weeks, and there was little scope at the moment for further selling.

"U.S. equity markets haven`t been performing well, but then neither has any alternative market," said Steven Englander, global currency strategist at Citibank.

The euro stood at $1.0108 <EUR=>, a cent below 2-1/2 year highs set early on Friday.

Comments from Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa helped the dollar claw back ground against the yen.

He said a weaker yen was desirable from a trade standpoint and that Japan was ready to intervene to counter extreme currency moves at any time.

Gold was close to a four week high around $324.00/324.50 dollars an ounce as funds sought a bolt hole.

But oil prices were hit by worries that the falling stock markets would spill over into the real economy and slow demand, with September Brent futures off 41 cents at $26.02 a barrel.

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service

[ThaiGuru]

Ob die Schweizer wohl auch bald Gold kaufen werden?

*NESTLE* Aktie heute in Zürich, 6,4% Verlust!
*CS Group* steht auf 34.- Franken, 5,4% Verlust!
*ASCOM* 9,1% Verlust!
*Rentenanstalt* 10,8% Verlust!
*Zürich* nochmals 8,5% Verlust (39% Verlust seit letzten Donnerstag!)

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[YoyoStock]

ich fürchte , das "Die " bald kein Geld mehr haben um noch Gold zu kaufen.
Es wird der Eindruck erweckt, daß man die Goldpositionen auflöst um an Cash zu kommen. oder ??

[Saccard]

Hatte Mahendra nicht etwas über die Schweiz und fallenden schweizer Franken "prophezeit"?

Erstaunlich...

Gruß
S.

[ThaiGuru]

@YoyoStock

Habe Dich nicht genau verstanden!

Wie meinst Du das mit "Die" haben bald kein Geld mehr zum Gold kaufen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[YoyoStock]

@ Thai

meine Theorie ist, die Fonds und Versicherer haben doch Mittelabflüsse und durch den Aktienverfall wenig Liquidität.
Was werden die wohl machen? Goldaktien verkaufen, weil sie da warscheinlich noch etwas in der Gewinnspanne liegen.

Viel Geld zum investieren haben die nicht mehr.

[ThaiGuru]

@Saccard

Bis jetzt hat der CH Franken aber noch nichts an Wert verloren, nur die CH Aktien verlieren zur Zeit stark an Wert.

Falls Mahendra mit (seiner?) Goldpreis Prognose recht behält, und massiv steigt, was auch ich glaube, würde der CH Franken eher noch an Wert zugewinnen, durch die relativ hohe Golddeckung des CH Franken.

Eine ganz andere Perspektive würde sich aber ergeben, falls die CH Goldbestände gar nicht mehr physisch vorhanden wären, sondern nur noch in Form von "Verleizettel" von UBS, CS Group, JPM, GS, City Group, etc.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@YoyoStock

Davon könnte man auf den ersten Blick eigentlich ausgehen, doch diese Annahme stimmt nur bedingt.

Einerseits haben die Fonds zur Zeit grosse Mittelabflüsse, durch die Verkäufe ihrer Fond Kunden, das ist absolut richtig, doch viele Fonds haben auch noch gewaltige Mengen an Bargeld in Warteposition.

Wie Du sicher weisst, sind die Aktien Märkte zur Zeit massiv überverkauft, also liegen zur Zeit gewaltige Summen an Geld bereit für neue Investitionen. Dieses Geld könnte auch bald wieder, kurzfristig, an den Märkten für eine neue Bäeren Rally sorgen, falls der grosse Crash an den Börsen nicht nächstens eintritt. Aber wie gesagt, nur vorübergend!

Das Geld sucht sich einfach irgend eine Art von Investition die gute Renditen verspricht. In dem Moment wo auch nur 1% des weltweit verfügbaren Kapitals in Gold und Goldaktien investiert würde, explodieren die Gold und Goldaktienpreise.
Beim Silber wäre ein Erwerb als Anlageform durch die Massen der Investoren vermutlich noch mehr Preistreibend, auf Grund der mangelnden Verfügbarkeit des Edelmetalles Silber.

Auch der absolut überwiegende Teil der Privatinvestoren, ist noch nicht im Gold, und verfügt über viel mehr Kapital, als sich die meisten Leute vorstellen können.
Alan Greenspan wird nicht umsonst auch "Mister Print" genannt.

Ich kann Dir versichern, dass trotz Deiner erwähnten Fond Mittelabflüsse, noch genügend Kapital vorhanden ist, dass die Gold und Silberpreise in ungeahnte Höhen steigen lassen könnte, sobald auch nur Bruchteile davon ins Gold transferiert werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[niemandweiss]

Grüss Dich Thai

ich halte ja auch an dem Glauben fest aber zur Zeit kann man eher annehmen, daß HUI gemeinsam mit dem DOW crashen wird. Irgendwie passieren da "unheimliche" Dinge.

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Du sprichst mir aus der Seele!

Es passieren wirklich seltsame Dinge.

Bleib dran und vor allem drinn im Gold und Silber, ja noch besser, kauf noch physisches Gold und Silber dazu, wenn es Deine Finanzen zulassen, und lies bitte die Analyse von Rochas, die ich gleich posten werde.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020722-mon.ht…

Global: Cracking Denial

Stephen Roach (New York)

This is obviously an extremely painful period for equity investors. Oversold is an understatement in describing current market conditions. Yet experience has taught a generation of investors that such sell-offs should be treated as classic dip-buying opportunities. Such a chance may well be at hand. I’ll leave that to the strategists. But there’s one key premise in all this that continues to eat away at the economist in me: The current state of affairs is still diagnosed as the market’s problem, not as an economic problem. That’s where I continue to take issue. Until denial cracks on this pivotal presumption, I continue to fear that any trading rallies will be short-lived and that financial market conditions will remain exceedingly treacherous.

Denial still needs to crack on several fronts, in my view. The first pertains to the presumption that the US economy is fine -- the essence of the all-too-popular "bad markets, good economy" syndrome. Sure, the backward-looking data tell us that the US economy is in relatively good shape -- although I would urge you to be on the alert for a serious recasting of the so-called official numbers at the end of July (see my 27 June Forum dispatch, "House of Mirrors"). But it’s the future the financial markets are so concerned with. Much is made of the fact that US equity markets have never -- with stress on the word "never" -- performed so poorly in the first seven months of an economic recovery. Inasmuch as equities usually start to recover six months before an upturn in the economy, the 30% decline in the S&P 500 over the past 12 months is all the more disconcerting. Relative to the 20-25% gains that have typically occurred at this stage in an economic upturn, some 50 percentage points of underperformance is staggering, to say the least.

Maybe not. The flaw in this line of reasoning may lie in the simple presumption that today’s stock market weakness should be calibrated against the performance of earlier periods of cyclical recovery in the US economy. Needless to say, a double-dip recession would completely invalidate this comparison. If such a relapse in the economy were to occur, the latest swoon in equity prices would hardly qualify as an anomaly. Instead it would be seen as a brilliant prognosis that the forecasting consensus completely missed. Obviously, I’m biased on this count. But in my view, despite the sharp recent capitulation of US equity markets, denial has yet to fully unravel on the real side of the economy. The case for the double dip is even more compelling today than it was when I first embraced such a prognosis at the start of this year. Here’s why.

While a classic inventory dynamic has led to recovery on the supply side of the US economy -- as evidenced by six months of accelerating growth in industrial production -- the demand side of the macro equation remains weak and exceedingly vulnerable to a relapse, in my view. That’s all the more the case in light of the feedback effects from the recent decline in the stock market; negative wealth effects should crimp consumer demand, and the "uncertainty factor" -- always a negative for business capital spending -- has just been magnified. This confluence of events looks like a classic set-up for a double dip -- a relapse in final demand at just the point when production is being lifted to rebuild inventories. At risk are two of the remaining icons of the late 1990s -- the resilience of the American consumer and a Teflon-like real estate market. Before this shakeout is over, I fully suspect denial will crack on both of those counts as well. In my opinion, the sharp recent decline in the stock market increases the odds of a double dip in the US economy. I would now place a little more than a 50% probability on the likelihood that real GDP growth will turn negative before year-end 2002.

An equally important strain of denial pertains to the global economic prognosis. Most believe that the angst in financial markets is traceable mainly to America’s problems. After all, the rest of the world didn’t have a Nasdaq bubble -- nor does it have to come to grips with a wrenching corporate governance shock. The related presumption is that the fundamentals of the non-US world are OK. On the surface, the recent sell-off in the dollar tends to bear that out, as does the some 750 bp of US underperformance in global equity markets so far this year.

Yet a still US-centric world is hardly immune to America’s travails. Our economists around the world remain convinced that the US is still the only meaningful domestic demand story in the global economy. If that’s correct -- and I fully endorse such a conclusion -- then a relapse on the US demand front could spell serious trouble for the rest of the world. That’s especially the case in Asia, where the outperformance in world equity markets has been most pronounced this year.

Yet the view is increasingly widespread that self-sustaining recovery is finally taking hold in Asia. However, only Korea has been able to achieve anything close to a revival in domestic demand. Even so, there is good reason to believe that the Korean growth dynamic may already have gone too far -- at least that’s the message from the excessive expansion in consumer credit and signs of a property bubble in Seoul. Elsewhere in the region -- including Japan -- self-sustaining domestic demand growth has yet to take hold. I suspect China would be especially at risk in the event of a US double dip. Chinese exports to the US surged by 19.1% in the first half of this year -- a sharp acceleration from the anemic 2.7% comparisons in the second half of 2001. With domestic demand in China under unrelenting pressure from reform-driven layoffs in state-owned enterprises, China needs all the help it can get from exports. Should the US disappoint as I suspect, the externally led Chinese growth dynamic would come under especially sharp pressure.

All this has caused Andy Xie to sound the alarm for Asia in the event of a US double dip (see his dispatch in today’s Forum, "Free-falling"). Such a recessionary relapse would hit an externally dependent Asian economy extremely hard -- hard enough in Andy’s view to knock more than 2.5 percentage points off the GDP growth rate of Asia ex-Japan for 2003 by taking our baseline forecast for the region down from 5.9% to just 3.3%. That, in and of itself, would be sufficient to lower world GDP growth by at least 0.6 percentage point next year. In a US-centric global economy, there’s no getting around it, in my view -- America’s double dip would be the world’s double dip. Only when that point finally hits home will I be convinced that most of the remaining denial will have cracked. Dip-buyers beware!

[granitbiss]

frage an die Leser :

ich habe die Möglichkeit japanische und chinesische Artikel hier einzustellen ??

Interesse ??
(allerdings auch nur in landesprache möglich !,

[niemandweiss]

ich glaub, ich bin im falschen Film ??!!?

GOLD/HUI Vergleich heute

[ThaiGuru]

@Granitbiss

Nur zu, die dazugehörigen Uebersetzungsprogramme besitze ich bereits, wär vielleicht mal ganz interessant zu wissen, was die Japaner und Chinesen so schreiben zum Goldgeschehen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Khampan]

@ granitbiss

Falls die japanischen Artikel aus dem Internet sind, bitte Webadresse hier reinstellen oder Boardmail.

BTW, ich habe mal (erfolglos) nach einem japanischen Webboard gesucht, in dem es um Gold geht. Vielleicht weißt du oder sonst jemand eines?

Danke,
Khampan

[keepitshort]

der S&P500 (SPX) fällt
und der HUI fällt

warum nur ???

[ThaiGuru]

@keepitshort

Vielleicht ist das eine Erklärung, zum #1530 WARUM?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

History of New World Order

http://www.viewfromthewall.com/fwch2.htm

"Jefferson wrote to James Monroe(who later served as our 5th President, 1817- 25) in January, 1815: "The dominion which the banking institutions have obtained over the minds of our citizens...must be broken, or it will break us." In 1816, Jefferson wrote to John Tyler(who became our 10th President, 1841-45): "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, and then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their father`s conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies...The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the Government, to whom it properly belongs."

...In a letter to Edward M. House (President Wilson`s closest aide), dated November 23, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt said: "The real truth of the matter is, and you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government of the U.S. since the days of Andrew Jackson." Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company, said: [/b][/u]"It is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."[/b][/u] In 1957, Sen. George W. Malone of Nevada said before Congress about the Federal Reserve: [/b][/u]"I believe that if the people of this nation fully understood what Congress has done to them over the past 49 years, they would move on Washington: they would not wait for an election...It adds up to a preconceived plan to destroy the economic and social independence of the United States."[/b][/u]

[keepitshort]

S&P500 und HUI auf 6 Monate dass zeigt zumindest den Trend

kurzsichtig sollte man nicht sein

[ThaiGuru]

Nicht nur viele Leser im Goldboard haben für das unerklärliche Verhalten von Gold und Goldaktien beim heutigen weltweiten Börsencrash, keine richtige Erklärung, und sind erstaunt und perplex, sondern auch die Fachleute die über das Goldgeschehen berichten, oder befragt wurden, haben eigentlich auch keine richtige Erklärung dafür!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225…

Gold excluded from Worldcom party

By: Stewart Bailey


Posted: 2002/07/22 Mon 19:32 ZE2 | © Miningweb 1997-2002


JOHANNESBURG – Cracks began to appear in the bullish façade which has characterised the gold equities market for more than a year, as South African traders and analysts grasped for ideas to explain a retreating gold index. The JSE`s gold board took a 6.1 percent haircut during the day, despite a gold price which held up above the $323/oz level it reached in New York on Friday.

One senior analyst said gold investors had taken their cue today from a muted gold price which had not taken full advantage of the bedlam on global markets, which had floundered today in the wake of the weekend`s Worldcom bankruptcy filing. Although gold`s safe haven qualities have shown some resurgence, some punters are beginning to ask why the price has not reacted more strongly in the face of one of largest global equity collapses in recent history.

According to Bloomberg, last year 255 publicly traded companies put $260 billion under bankruptcy protection. The news wire said this was triple the previous record that had stood for more than a decade. So far this year, 131 companies (that`s before the Worldcom disaster) filed for bankruptcy, placing $150 billion in the red.

An interesting addendum to this tail of stock market woe is contained in the humorous e-mail sent to Miningweb`s office from a city gold analyst this morning. "If you had bought US$1 000 worth of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth US$49. With Enron, you would have US$16.50 of the original US$1 000. With Worldcom, you would have less than US$5 left. If you had bought $1 000 worth of Budweiser (the beer, not the stock) one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for the 10 cent deposit, you would have $214. Based on the above, my current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle," said the e-mail. It may not be scrupulously correct, but it does make a good point.

With this in mind, some analysts believe generalist investors should be flocking to the bullion market, propelling the gold price to dizzy heights. "There is no doubt that there is some concern that if dollar gold did not break through the $330/oz level in this market, it`s going to try on the downside sooner or later," said the analyst. He said the pasting given to global equity markets this year had also provided bargain hunters with a wealth of opportunities in general stocks, which were diverting attention away from gold counters.

No follow through

Last week`s spike in bullion occurred in early US trade on Friday and sent the metal to an intraday high of $325.50/oz, bringing its gain for last week to $7.85, with around $6.50 of the rise coming from Friday`s price action. The run came against the backdrop of a slew of bearish trading outlooks given by blue-chip US information technology and telecommunications firms, but bullion traders in Johannesburg said the price action was largely due to short covering as a rise in the price to above $320 triggered a series of buy orders.

"The funds set their levels to buy back shorts and there are those in the market that effectively go searching for those levels. This rise was on stop loss buying rather than fundamentals," said the trader. He pegged resistance at $328/oz and support first at $315/oz and then at $308/oz.

Regardless of the reason for Friday`s rally, gold shares reacted well in South Africa where the index rallied 5 percent on Friday. Problem is, however, that the ever-present follow-through from US funds failed to materialise. Greg Potter, senior equity trader at BoE in Johannesburg, said: "There was no follow through from the US and now there could also be some overhang from the professional traders in the US."

Bulls still about

But a report issued this morning by Standard Bank should give bulls some hope.

"Technically gold`s short-term momentum is positive with the 9 day moving average at $318.50 well above the 18 day MA at $316.00. Good support is provided by the 40 day MA at $319.50, while there is a band of resistance between $325 and $330, which may prove difficult to penetrate unless there are further shocks from Corporate America or increased political tensions in the Middle East and/or the Indian sub-Continent," said the Standard Bank report.

Justin Pearson Taylor, commodties analyst at Standard Bank Equities, said the house view was still of an upward trend over the next year and a half, with an average of $311/oz this year. He said bullion was expected to average $328/oz next year and $336/oz in 2004.

Deutsche Bank`s commodities research team said in a report issued this morning that the net long 23,900 contracts on Comex was still well below the recent high of 46,900 contracts, "suggesting speculators have significant scope to add fuel to any rally". The view is an interesting corollary on the bearish stance on the long end of the market, which views the holders of bullion as a potential overhang and threat to the price.

In this market, however, it would be a brave man who would sell his gold and face full exposure to this turbulent equity market.

JSE share price action

In Johannesburg, Gold Fields dropped 7.5 percent to close on R118.40 a share, while AngloGold lost 4.4 percent end the day on R525 a share.

Harmony Gold shed 3.5 percent to R149.31 and Durban Roodepoort Deep lost only 0.8 percent to R42.61. ARMGold, meanwhile, remained fairly stagnant, losing only 0.2 percent to R53.70 and Afrikander Lease dropped 2 percent to R5.00 a share.

Western Areas, the 50 percent owner of the South Deep gold mine, lost 5 percent to R36 a share

[ThaiGuru]

Die ersten Ratten verlassen das sinkende Schiff, und suchen einen Sündenbock! Etwas spät wie ich glaube!

Man muss nicht unbedingt Mahendra heissen, um zu prophezeien, dass der liebe Alan Greespan seine Amtszeit nicht bis zum Ende absolvieren dürfte.

Ist man im Alter von Greeni eigentlich noch Hafterstehungsfähig?


Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://ca.us.biz.yahoo.com/rc/020722/economy_fed_bubble_1.ht…

Monday July 22, 3:35 pm Eastern Time
Reuters Company News
ANALYSIS-Stocks` tumble raises questions about Fed`s role

By Tim Ahmann

WASHINGTON, July 22 (Reuters) - Amid the wreckage of the bloodiest U.S. stock market rout since the early 1970s, some economists are saying the United States is paying a price for Alan Greenspan`s decision to not stand in the way of an inflating stock price bubble.

In Dec. 1996, the Fed chief famously asked, "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?" His less-famous response came years later: We don`t.

"To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors," he said in Aug. 1999.

Greenspan said that a popping bubble was "incontrovertibly evident only in retrospect" and that the Fed wouldn`t supplant the market`s view on valuations with its own.

He and his Fed colleagues have repeated a variation on the mantra "the Fed does not target stock prices" for too many years to count.

That answer kept Greenspan and his colleagues at the U.S. central bank focused squarely on the economic spillover of the sharp run-up in equity prices in the late-1990s, and not on the prices of stocks themselves.

Now that bubble has burst -- leaving the economy lumbering under the weight of a $7.7 trillion loss of wealth -- the Fed`s single-minded focus has been called into question.

"The Fed`s job is to prevent imbalances that threaten macroeconomic stability," Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Bill Dudley said, arguing that financial asset value bubbles are just such an imbalance.

Steve Cecchetti, a former research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, agreed the Fed should respond to asset prices that are "out of whack" with fundamentals.

He said inflated asset values lead to unsustainable investment booms and the central bank can deliver a better economic performance over time by tempering investment.

"We`re paying the price (for Greenspan`s decision) in what is likely to be a protracted period of lower growth," he said.

COST AND BENEFITS

While the stock market`s slide has raised the risk that the fledgling economic recovery may falter, so far the economy seems to be moving ahead, if slowly -- suggesting the Fed`s aggressive campaign of interest-rate cuts last year is working.

The Fed lowered the benchmark overnight lending rate 11 times in 2001, to a four-decade low of 1.75 percent.

Most economists think the Fed will maintain this easy policy until late this year or even next, until the economy is on a firmer footing.

Supporters of Greenspan`s stance on stocks point to the apparent brevity and shallowness of the recession that began in March 2001 and appears to have ended early this year, saying it shows the central bank has ably shielded the real economy.

"The collateral damage to the rest of the financial system, especially the banking system, has been between minuscule and zero," former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said.

"I think there are a lot of real benefits that the economy realized that we would not have realized" if Greenspan had come to a different conclusion, he said, citing the fast growth, low unemployment and high level of investment of the 1990s.

In addition, he said that while many were arguing there was a high-tech overinflation of dot-com and telecom firm prices in 1998, at that time there wasn`t a clear bubble in other sectors.

"Suppose you believe there was a huge bubble in dot-coms and techs more generally but not in the rest of the market," Blinder said. "What do you do about that? Raising interest rates is not going to target the tech sector."

"To the people that say Greenspan should have stopped this earlier, I always say, `Tell me when and now tell me about the growth we didn`t have, the real investment we wouldn`t have gotten.`"

Martin Baily, who chaired President Bill Clinton`s Council of Economic Advisers, agreed the Fed doesn`t have the tools to target the stock market. But his support for Greenspan`s decision stems from something more fundamental.

"It would represent an unwarranted intervention in the economy," he said, noting that Congress has mandated the Fed to pursue stable prices and maximum employment.

Still, Baily -- who said that in the final year of Clinton`s presidency there was concern that the market had moved too high -- said the economy would have fared better if a bubble hadn`t developed.

WHO TO BLAME?

While some have argued that the Fed should have taken the punch bowl away sooner, others have said the central bank is to blame for essentially spiking the punch.

Tackling the question of who might bear the blame for a bubble building, editorial writers at the Wall Street Journal last week pointed at Greenspan and his colleagues. "One suspect would have to be the Federal Reserve itself, for feeding the economy too much liquidity for too long," the paper opined.

When the financial crisis that began in Southeast Asia hit Russia in the fall of 1998 and threatened to bring down the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, the Fed cut rates in three steps, beginning in late September and ending in November.

But it didn`t raise rates until the subsequent June and failed to take the third rate cut back until Nov. 1999, when the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index was already stratosphere-bound.

"It was right to respond to the Asian crisis and to the possible problems that might have fallen from Russia and Long-Term Capital," Carnegie Mellon University professor Allan Meltzer said. "But I think they stayed with that much too long."

At that time, Meltzer headed the Shadow Open Market Committee, a prominent group of economists who closely monitor measures of the nation`s money supply to gauge the appropriateness of Fed policy.

"We warned about the fact that they were printing too much money in 1999, 2000," he said. "Certainly some of that money found its way into the stock market."

Greenspan has also drawn criticism for looking to the earnings projections of Wall Street analysts to bolster his case that the U.S. economy`s underlying productivity growth had picked up in the latter half of the 1990s. Some have said his bullishness provided fuel for the stock market`s ascent.

Baily said a key lesson of recent years was that fast growth in productivity -- or worker output per hour -- does not translate into fat profits when prices are held down by intense competition between businesses.

"It benefited consumers more than it benefited shareholders," he said of the late-1990s productivity surge that led many, including himself, to be overly optimistic on profits.

[ThaiGuru]

Hier eine Aufstellung der ansteigenden Shortpositionen von Januar bis Juni 2002 bei Harmony Gold *HGMCY*

Die Zahlen heute Montag dürften noch bedeutend höher gelegen haben. Die Ansteigenden Shortpositionen von weiteren einzelnen Gold, oder Silber Minen, könnt Ihr durch die Eingabe des Kürzels selbst nachschauen

Datum....Aktien Short.....Avg Daily Volume......Ratio

06/02.....2,610,722.........3,657,214...........0.71 A
05/02.....2,703,186.........1,942,262...........1.39 A
04/02.....2,303,570.........1,414,437...........1.63 A
03/02.....1,516,221.........1,035,294...........1.46 A
02/02.....1,233,147.........1,086,655...........1.13 A
01/02.....1,088,323...........683,527...........1.59 T A

Quelle:

http://www.viwes.com/invest/

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

John Brimelow Report:

Indian ex duty premiums: AM ($1.03), PM ($1.26) with world gold at $324.30 and $325.50. (This means that although the Indian gold price is actually above theworld price, today by $14.85 and $14.71 respectively, the 25 rupee per gram import duty exceeds that premium, hence the negative “ex duty” premium.) Below legal import levels, of course, and sharply down from previously reported levels, as is usual on an abrupt price spike.

So far, India seems to be having a somewhat unsatisfactory Monsoon. Before this becomes too loud a battle cry from the bears, it might be as well to note down the Indian Government’s remarkable web site
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/hydro/dynamic/seasonal-rainf…
(updated weekly), from which it appears that the rainfall is mixed with some drought prone regions like Gujarat getting normal rain but several others not. Paradoxically, the Indian currency hit an 18-week high on Monday, buoyed up by strong current and capital account flows. This will serve to moderate any softening in rural demand, by diminishing the rupee gold price.

On Monday morning the Far East responded with surprising tolerance to Friday’s abrupt $6 jump, which of course happened long after their weekend had begun.

Gold actually edged back above $324 several times and Tocom open interest rose the equivalent of 1401 Comex contracts on volume equal to 35, 839 Comex lots, indicating that profit taking liquidation was not dominant. (NY on Friday traded 59,978 contracts and open interest rose only 4,417 lots.) Today’s NY volume is estimated at 34,000. Commentaries agree that apprehension about world equity markets is stimulating gold offtake in various parts of the Far East: Monday’s NY stumble is not likely to quiet these fears.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

Thanks to Horst H. Grahn, I sent the following to an important person in Germany. This letter was written with the help of a very savvy Café member/GATA supporter:

Dear Mr. K

(Drei mal dürft ihr raten, um wen es sich bei "Mr. K" handelt?,TG)

Mr. Horst Grahn asked that I write to provide you with additional information about the status of the Bundesbank`s gold.

Though the Bundesbank reports to the International Monetary Fund the ownership of approximately 3,400 tonnes of gold (with a value of approximately US$36 billion), there is substantial evidence to suggest that the Bundesbank`s gold vault is empty.

Over the past three years my organization, GATA, which stands for the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, has uncovered substantial evidence that the gold price is being manipulated by elements of the US government, certain central banks and several large bullion banks. The evidence suggests that the Bundesbank and Deutschebank are part of this cabal.

This evidence is reported on the website`s of two analysts well known and respected in the gold industry, http://www.fgmr.com and http://www.goldensextant.com

To summarize this evidence, approximately 1,700 tonnes of gold have been loaned by the Bundesbank to various bullion banks, most notably, Deutschebank (DB). When DB received that gold, it then sold it for dollars, euros and other currencies, with a promise to pay the gold back to the Bundesbank at some future date. This activity is very profitable to DB.

Additionally, another 1,700 tonnes of gold has been swapped by the Bundesbank with the US Exchange Stabilization Fund. This transaction is slightly more complex than a gold loan, though gold loans are the reason it was undertaken.

The gold lending market takes place in Europe, not the United States. The ESF needed to make gold loans to the bullion banks to provide them with liquidity, but gold stored in the US cannot be used for this purpose because gold loans take place in Europe. Therefore, the ESF approached the Bundesbank to complete a swap. The ESF took possession of the last 1,700 tonnes of the Bundesbank`s gold, and promised to pay the Bundesbank 1,700 tonnes of gold stored by the US Treasury in West Point, New York. The ESF then loaned the 1700 tonnes of gold it received from the Bundesbank to various bullion banks.

The net result is that the Bundesbank`s gold vault is empty. Of the 3400 tonnes, 1700 tonnes has been loaned by the Bundesbank, and 1700 tonnes is in West Point, owed to the Bundesbank by the ESF.

A member of GATA has discussed these allegations with the Bundesbank. He approached the Bundesbank because its annual financial statement reports "gold in the vault" and "gold loaned out" as one item. This reporting defies generally accepted accounting principles because clearly, gold in the vault is a much safer asset than gold loaned out, and Section 26(2) of the Bundesbank Act requires that it prepare its financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Without specifically answering any questions regarding the disposition of its gold, the Bundesbank informed this member of GATA that it`s accounting procedures are permitted according to International Monetary Fund rules, which supercede Section 26(2) of the Bundesbank Act. We believe that the Bundesbank`s role in this ongoing manipulation of the gold price is being undertaken by the Bundesbank because of its commitments to the IMF.

We would be very pleased to provide you with more information. In this regard, I enclose an interview that I recently conducted with a leading Arabic newspaper, Al-Hayat. I also enclose the report prepared by Royal Bank of Canada that is referred to in the Al-Hayat interview.

I look forward to the opportunity to speak with you on this most important matter.

Sincerely,
Bill Murphy
Chairman, GATA
www.GATA.org

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Eine Seite die jeder echte Goldbug einmal erforschen sollte.

Sound einschalten und los:

http://www.austinpowers.com/cgi-bin/drevil/goldolizer.cgi

Aufbau der Seite dauert etwa 30 Sek.!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

July 22 - Gold $323.30 down 60 cents - Silver $5.01 down 7 cents

MIDAS to be On CSPAN’s Washington Journal Wed. 9 AM EDT

This email was a pleasant surprise this morning:

“I am a producer for CSPAN`s Washington Journal. One of our Vice-President`s noticed the Le Metropole Cafe and suggested that your views on the current state of the economy might make for a good segment on our program.”

I have been booked for Wednesday 9 AM EDT. It should be posted on http://www.CSPAN.com tomorrow.

Oh, I am sick and tired of the gold crooks. What more does anyone in the world need to realize that the gold price is rigged by a Gold Cartel? Until the cabal is overpowered, or GATA exposes them, the price of gold is not going up. The good news is the way things are going that could happen ANY DAY!

[ThaiGuru]

ThaiGuru schaut sich ab sofort die Homepage von Wallstreet-Online.de, nur noch im Goldlook an!

http://www.austinpowers.com/cgi-bin/shared/nph-proxy.cgi/000…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[tamara93]

Gold koennte sich verdoppeln, sagt top US - trader

http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider…

[ThaiGuru]

@tamara93

Gold hätte sich schon längstens verdoppelt, wenn diese v..zensuriert..n, Goldpreis Manipulateure nicht wären.

Es tut zwar weh, wenn man die jetzigen Vorkommnisse am Gold und Silber Markt ansehen muss, Silber wird ja noch weitaus stärker preismanipuliert wie Gold selbst, auch wenn jemand ständig was anderes behauptet hatte.

Zähneknirschen und Geduld ist angesagt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[vomo]

Gold edges back as dollar, stocks recover

LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - Gold edged back on Tuesday,
undercut by a recovery in the dollar and a rebound in European
and Asian stock markets.
At 1005 GMT gold <XAU=> was quoted at $320.30/320.80 a troy
ounce, down from $322.90/323.40 at the last New York close as
safe-haven buying ebbed away from the precious metal.
Gold fixed in the London morning session at $320.30 an
ounce, down from the previous $322.90 an ounce mark.
The dollar surged higher across the board on Tuesday,
pushing the euro back below parity even after U.S. stocks
plunged to 1998 levels, leaving dealers wondering whether the
greenback`s decline had run its course.
The dollar rose two percent on the day against the euro to a
best of $0.98604 <EUR=>, capping the purcahing power of European
investors for gold. The greenback also gained one percent
against the yen, sterling and the Canadian and Australian
dollars and two percent against the Swiss franc.
"On the physical side there is little interest at current
levels and a further recovery in the dollar could see gold test
the support provided by the 40-day moving average at $319.50 (an
ounce)," analysts at Standard Bank said.
Dark clouds over the stock markets parted slightly as
European and Asian shares defied another U.S. slump to move
higher, with investors hoping Wall Street had hit bottom after
its steepest dive in almost 30 years.
The Dow Jones closed below 8,000 points on Monday, for the
first time since October 1998, stoking more concern over the
pace of the global recovery.
But unlike Friday`s equities slide, the Dow`s latest weak
close did not prompt a flurry of buying in gold, and this
failure to advance could scupper the gold market`s chances of
another rally, analysts said.
Weak stock markets, as well as geo-political concerns
ranging from fears of a repeat attack on the U.S. mainland to
Middle East violence, have helped gold shine as a safe
investment in the past few months.
But renewed violence in the Middle East failed to ignite any
buying and the 2-1/2 year high of $330.30 an ounce hit last
month looked distant.
Yet technical analysts said a move to $327 an ounce was
possible if further losses were prevented.
"As long as gold can hold over $318/319 we cannot rule out a
push towards $327/330," said J.P.Morgan in a market note.
Silver watched gold to be quoted at $4.99/5.01 an ounce,
down from the New York close of $5.02/5.04 an ounce.
Platinum was quoted at $519.00/524.00 an ounce from
$516.00/524.00 and palladium at $315.00/322.00 an ounce from
$312.50/324.50 in a correction to sharp losses in U.S. futures
markets overnight.
((London newsroom, [phone], fax [phone]))

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
Spot gold/silver <XAU=> <XAG=> Platinum/palladium <XPT=><XPD=>
Gold lease rates <LGLR> Comex gold futures <0#GC:>
Europe/Asia prices <GOLD/EU1> <GOLD/EU2> <GOLD/ASIA1>
RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS
Precious metals news [GOL] All metals news [MTL]
Metals summary [GLANCE/MTL] Index of summaries [GLANCE/]
All commodities news [C] Metals diary [MTL/DIARY]
Ldn Bullion Mkt Assoc <LBMA01> Foreign exchange rates <FX=S>
SPEED GUIDES
<COMMODS> <PRECIOUS1> <PRECIOUS/FUT1> <PRECIOUS/CASH1>
<PRECIOUS/SWAP1> <PRECIOUS/VOL1> <REUTERS>

(C) Reuters 2002. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of
Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly
prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters
sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of
companies around the world.


nL233578
GOL/ GOL/E

Jul-23-2002 10:06 GMT
Source RTRS Reuters News

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020723/economy_uruguay_minister_1.ht…

Tuesday July 23, 12:07 am Eastern Time

Reuters Market News

Uruguay economic crisis widens as minister quits

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, July 23 (Reuters) -- Uruguayan Economy Minister Alberto Bension resigned after losing the support of part of the ruling coalition, in the latest sign of growing troubles in the small, recession-hit South American nation.

"Economy Minister Alberto Bension has told me officially that tomorrow morning he will formally resign his position," Uruguayan President Jorge Batlle told reporters late on Monday, adding that Bension`s replacement would be announced Tuesday.

A government source who asked not to be named told Reuters the board of the Central Bank, which is headed by Batlle`s cousin Cesar Rodriguez Batlle, would also be replaced.

Bension`s resignation comes as the country faces what Batlle called its worst-ever economic crisis. The agriculture, tourism and banking-dependent economy has been rocked this year by spillover from the economic chaos in neighbouring Argentina, where a recession has pushed banks to the brink of collapse.

Many Argentines with accounts in Uruguay have begun to withdraw deposits from local banks, a trend that gained momentum among Uruguayans when the Central Bank opened an investigation into Banco Comercial, Uruguay`s largest private bank, over alleged illegal capital flight.

The National Party, the junior party in the ruling Colorado Party, asked on Monday that Bension be replaced in order to boost confidence in the economy.

"The government is pained by the fact that the National Party has lost confidence in Minister Bension, but this is a government of coalition and we have to accept this, even though we don`t like it."

Economists were unconvinced Bension`s resignation would increase faith in a government that saw the economy shrink 10.1 percent in the first quarter of the year.

"Obviously the political problems are serious. Far from helping, this muddies the waters because it creates the sensation that there is a very serious problem in the decision-making process," said Gabriel Oddone, an economist for think tank CINVE.

MORE PROBLEMS

Despite increased aid from the International Monetary Fund -- the lender approved a $1.5 billion aid increase last month -- Uruguay has suffered from a decline in bank deposits and tax revenues, June`s abrupt currency flotation and a wave of downgrades from credit rating agencies.

The economy has not grown since 1999 and international reserves are down 68 percent for the year.

"Replacing Bension is very bad for the market," said Maria Dolores Benavente, a fund manager at Republica Afap.

Standard & Poor`s Rating Ratings Services downgraded to default ratings on Banco Galicia Uruguay S.A., a wholly owned subsidiary of Argentina`s Banco de Galicia (Buenos Aires:GAL.BA - News).

Earlier on Monday, one of Uruguay`s Central Bank board members, who belongs to the National Party, quit for what she called "political" reasons amid criticism the agency failed to monitor private banks sufficiently during capital flight.

Bension and the Central Bank have been under increasing criticism over the exodus of capital.

Uruguay floated its currency late last month amid a run on banks, a drop in consumer spending and the ripple effects of financial market woes in Argentina and Brazil.

Brazil`s markets and currency have been hit hard by investor concerns that political turbulence ahead of October`s presidential elections will make it difficult to manage the country`s massive $250 billion debt load.

Uruguay never fully recovered from Brazil`s 1999 devaluation and received another blow to competitiveness when Argentina devalued in January.

The Uruguayan peso (RPNJ) has fallen more than 30 percent since being devalued. It closed at 25.0 to the dollar Monday.

Uruguay`s fiscal deficit was equal to 4.2 percent of gross domestic product by the end of March, a level the IMF says must fall to 2.5 percent this year for the country to receive aid.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1…

23/07/2002 12:47 - (SA)

Gold lower as stocks, dollar gain

London - Gold edged back on Tuesday, undercut by a recovery in the dollar and a rebound in European and Asian stock markets.

At 12:05, spot gold was quoted at US$320.30/320.80 an ounce, down from $322.90/323.40 at the last New York close.

Gold fixed in the London morning session at $320.30 an ounce, down from the previous $322.90 an ounce mark.

The dollar rose 2% on the day against the euro to a best of $0.98604. It gained 1% against the yen, sterling and the Canadian and Australian dollars and 2% against the Swiss franc.

"On the physical side there is little interest at current levels and a further recovery in the dollar could see gold test the support provided by the 40-day moving average at $319.50 (an ounce)," analysts at Standard Bank said.

Dark clouds over the stock markets parted slightly as European and Asian shares defied another US slump to move higher, with investors hoping Wall Street had hit bottom after its steepest dive in almost 30 years.

The Dow Jones closed below 8000 points on Monday, for the first time since October 1998, stoking more concern over the pace of the global recovery.

But unlike Friday`s equities slide, the Dow`s latest weak close did not prompt a flurry of buying in gold, and this failure to advance could scupper the gold market`s chances of another rally, analysts said.

Technical analysts said a move to $327 an ounce was possible if further losses were prevented.

"As long as gold can hold over $318/319 we cannot rule out a push towards $327/330," said JP Morgan in a market note.

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

@#1545

Das bedeutet, der POG wird unter US$ 317 gedrückt werden?!

[ThaiGuru]

Ein Posting aus dem USA Goldboard möchte ich Euch hier auf Deutsch, frei übersetzt und etwas verfeinert, weitergeben!

Falls ein Amerikaner vor einem Jahr für 1000.- Dollar Aktien der Firma "Nortel" gekauft hat, sind heute von den 1000.-$ noch "49.- Dollar übrig geblieben"!

Wer für 1000.- Dollar "Enron Aktien" gekauft hatte, dem bleiben heute noch "16.- Dollar übrig"!

Diejenigen die vor 1 Jahr "Worldcom Aktien" kauften, sehen heute gerade noch "5.- Dollar" von Ihrem Geld.

Ein Biertrinker der vor einem Jahr für 1000.- Dollar, Budweiser Bier gekauft hat (Bierflachen, nicht die Aktien), und die Pfandflaschen alle schön für 10 Cents pro Flasche zurückgebracht hat, besitzt jetzt immerhin noch "214.- Dollar". Ganz zu schweigen vom erlebten Biergenuss, und den eingesparten Kalorien, und den Ausgaben, für andere Lebensmittel.

"Wer aber 1000.- Dollar in Gold investiert hatte,

kann sich heute über ein Vermögen von 1200.- Dollar freuen".



Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Um durch die Preisentwicklung aufzuzeigen welches der beiden Edelmetalle Gold und Silber sich in diesem Jahr 2002, bis jetzt besser entwickelt hat, hier noch zwei Lanzeit Charts!

Sieger ist bis jetzt eindeutig das Gold geblieben, auch wenn andern Ortes, immer wieder das Gegenteil behauptet wurde.





Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@SchlimmerSilberfinger

Da hast Du wohl recht.

Gold wird weiterhin durch Papier Gold Verkäufe versucht runter zu drücken, durch möglichst viele charttechnische Unterstützungslinien.

Ob es dem Gold Cabal aber gelingen wird, den Preis auf 317.- Dollar zu bringen bleibt abzuwarten.



Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Seher33]

Hallo Thaiguru!
Mit großem Interesse habe ich in den letzten Monaten Deine
Beiträge gelesen und teile diese größtenteils inhaltlich.
Mit einer Goldposition vor knapp einen Jahr liege ich heute
super im Rennen (glücklicherweise mal dicke im plus) und
verfolge den Markt daher sehr interessiert.
Ich glaube, was wir zur Zeit erleben, ist die Renaissance
der ,,Logik" der Märkte - entweder fällt alles oder steigt
alles! So auch beim Gold- ,,normalerweise" müßte es steigen, es fällt aber. Schauen wir uns mal um, so fällt
leider alles, weil alle depressiv und traurig sind.
Aber mit dem heutigen, sich beschleunigendem Abschwung denke ich mal, stehen wir vor einer fulminanten Wende, und
das wird auch dem Gold gut tun!
Mittlerweile sind wir im stark überverkauften Bereich bei
Gold fields, ein Pullback mit anschließendem Test alter
Highs mehr als wahrscheinlich, aber gemach, gemach, es wird schon seine Zeit dauern. Die Hausse, auf die ich persönlich setze, wird aber erst viel später einsetzen, und die gilt
es abzuwarten. Also, schlaft über diese unruhigen Zeiten
ein wenig ein, kassiert die Dividenden und wacht erst dann auf, wenn wir Sprünge von 5 bis 15 Prozent am Tage erleben werden!(In Anlehnung an Kosto!)
In diesem Sinne,
am Golde hängt, zum Golde drängt doch alles (Dagobert Duck)
der Seher

[Ken_meyer]

die schönste Nachricht heute: JPM MINUS 10% !!!

irgendwann ist Sensenmann mit bashen.

[schmithi]

Mit Verlaub, der Goldchart sieht heute mal richtig schei*** aus

[manfred1_I]

JPM minus 14 %.

Was geht da ab??

[Tippgeber1]

Ich bleibe trotz solcher Tage wie heute bei meiner bullischen Einschätzung:

Gold im Jahre 2003 zwischen 600-800$
Silber im September 2003 bei 12$


Gruß

Tippgeber

[axelkitzing]

Wie ist denn Eure Einschätzung für den morgigen Tag ?

Geht das so weiter wie heute oder kann man an eine Erholung denken ?

Da ich erst spät eingestiegen bin, war der heutige Tag ein richtiger Schock für .

Gruß

[erdede]

@tippgeber

gold im september?

[Seher33]

@all
Nun, die Bärenfalle hat zugeschnappt und viele Chartgläubige
haben ihre Stoplossmarken tatsächlich eingehalten- was sollen sie auch sonst tun? Das Gold in der Vergangenheit
öfters mal solche Hopser gemacht hat (nach oben und nach
unten) ist anscheinend vergessen...die Nerven liegen bei
vielen blank. Nun haben sie ihr Geld ,,gesichert", aber
wann wieder einsteigen???? Nun, die Kurven werden es schon
verraten!
Nur so vom Gefühl her- dieser Selloff war das Beste, was
den Markt passieren konnte.
Der Anstieg kann somit weitergehen!
Und zwar schneller, als man glauben sollte!
Seher

[ThaiGuru]

July 23 - Gold $312.30 down $11 - Silver $5.86 down 15 cents

Gold Cartel Panic / Morgan, Citibank Trashed / Morgan Tapioca?

What a day! Rumors were flying. As I am preparing for my CSPAN interview tomorrow, this will be down and dirty.

Market manipulation was blatant as could be today, for all the world to see. With our money center banks near collapse, the dollar ( 107. 08, up 1.95) soared and gold was trashed. Meanwhile, The Working Group on Financial Markets supported the Dow all day long to do what they could from keeping J.P. Morgan Chase from blowing up.

A hedge fund manager told me if Morgan closed below $20, they were history due to certain capital markets. By buying the Dow futures, the PPT encouraged arbitrage buying of Morgan as part of the basket of Dow stocks. Amazingly, J.P. Morgan Chase closed at $20.08, down $4.44.

The financial desk of a major firm reported: “massive over-the-counter derivative problems.”

From a highly respected Café member:

Just received word from a very trusted source in Toronto that BofA is in big derivatives trouble and has quietly gone to the Fed for a bailout.
Pls let me know if you hear anything.
I went into my branch last week and they were falling all over themselves to be of service to me. They seemed almost afraid of a run and I thought so at the time.
Mike

The Gold Cartel is desperate. They are falling apart. Once gold flies, they are tapioca. They know it and we know it. That is why gold was creamed by the crooks in New York and Washington.

A report on the gold action:

“see gold today? hearing the fed is selling…”

Dear Mr. Murphy, the above line was sent to me by a friend at JPMorgan... Thank you, Trey

The cabal kicked off the gold selling. Goldman Sachs sold until they hit massive stops. Goldman’s probe set off fund sell stops and they puked.

Don’t you love our free markets in America. Isn’t great how the bullion banks are allowed to operate their criminal enterprises at our expense. As I have said before, there are no better people than Americans, but we are no longer a great country. No free press, rigged financial markets. We are second rate and that has to change.

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report:

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.01, PM $ $1.57, with world gold at $320.40 and $319.80. Below legal import level, but of course sharply higher (by some $3) than yesterday. The rupee made another 18 week high today. Reports have been heard that serious Indian demand materialized when gold collapsed – by over $7 – during NY’s lunch hour today. These premiums suggest this information is highly plausible.

Although gold was steadily pressured against a background of a rising dollar from the start of Asian trading this morning, Tocom open interest actually edged up a little, by the equivalent of 202 Comex contracts, on moderate volume equal to 25,954 comex lots. (Comex traded 40,737 contracts yesterday and open interest there rose 3,528 lots: a good deal of it surely shorting). While bullion sales from various points was reported early today, Tocom does not seem to have been an important source.

Where the highly influential and abrupt dollar buying came from is obviously a key question. There seems to have been some Central Bank action – Reuters reports Korean dollar sales as a fact, and there were stories of Japanese and even German harrumphing. Most commentators are at pains to find some fundamental
cause, such as US foreign equity sales repatriation, but, as a Japanese trader is quoted as remarking on Reuters, this type of dollar strength after the ’87 meltdown proved fleeting.

A day on which the equities of two major US banks drop almost 20% on rafter –rattling stories of derivative wrong- doing, and the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee is reported to be trying to protect Robert Rubin from having to submit to potentially devastating interrogation concerning his role in recent financial scandals (See would not seem the most obvious one in which to launch one of the most powerful bear raids of modern times on gold. Yet it happened. Comex is estimated to have traded a huge 88,000 contracts, including 21,000 on the break between noon and 1 PM, and an enormous 33,000 in the final half hour, preventing any rally. Either number would have made a respectable days’ volume in the recent past. This follows steady selling since Monday morning, and notable softness by the
ever- prescient gold equities, recently cited with unprecedented frequency as causing, rather than anticipating gold price weakness.

Obviously it is time to recall the key contribution to logic of William of Ockham. Ockham’s razor states that the simplest explanation of natural phenomenon is
generally the best.

Those friends of gold who prefer more specifically economic comfort will find solace in Bernard Connolly’s latest assessment:


“Yet, for the US viewed in isolation, we remain firmly of the view that substantial real depreciation of the dollar is necessary…
We remain equally firmly of the view that euroland and Japan could not stand the appreciation of theircurrencies that would be required for this real dollar depreciation to take place through nominal exchange rate movements. How do things get resolved? Through euroland/Japanese inflation? Ultimately, a big Japanese inflation is inevitable, but in the context of even bigger yen depreciation. Euroland? There, too,…. there is a high probability of inflation down the road. But in neither case can one see the kind of euroland/Japanese inflation without currency depreciation that would be needed from the US point of view. So…. Greenspan has to keep puffing up the housing market, with the consequent risk of US inflation.”

JB

[ThaiGuru]

July 23, 2002 9:45 a.m.
Joe Lieberman’s Cover-Up
Where is Robert Rubin?

The news this morning for Citigroup, Inc., one of Enron`s largest creditors, is bad.

The New York Times reports that "senior credit officers of Citigroup misrepresented the full nature of a 1999 transaction with Enron in the records of the deal so that Enron could ignore accounting requirements and hide its true financial condition, according to internal bank documents and government investigators." The Wall Street Journal reports that Enron "marketed similarly structured deals to a slew of other companies." And yesterday, the Washington Post reported that Citigroup, along with J. P. Morgan Chase & Co., "transferred billions of dollars to Enron ... in recent years in what amounted to loans that Houston energy trader concealed as it struggled to survive .…"

Given the central role played by Citigroup in concealing Enron`s debt from investors, the general public, and government regulators, why, then, hasn`t former Clinton treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, now the chairman of Citigroup`s executive committee, been called to testify before Congress? In particular, why hasn`t the chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, Senator Joseph Lieberman, sought Rubin`s testimony? After all, Lieberman is heading up the Senate`s investigation into Enron`s bankruptcy and fraudulent dealings.

And there`s ample reason to hear from Rubin. In addition to this week`s disclosures about Citigroup`s assistance in cooking Enron`s books, during Enron`s final days Rubin played a direct role in attempting to conceal Enron`s financial condition from credit-rating agencies. Specifically, on November 8, 2001, Rubin made a telephone call to Peter Fisher, the Treasury Department`s undersecretary for domestic finance, seeking Fisher`s intervention with Wall Street credit-rating agencies on behalf of Enron when those agencies were about to downgrade Enron`s ratings.

www.nationalreview.com/script/printpage.asp?ref=/levin/levin072302.asp

[ThaiGuru]

@Manfred

JPM hat heute mit 18,11% Minus, auf 20.08 Dollar geschlossen!

Wenn JPM morgen nochmals 10% verlieren sollte, ist JPM am Ende!

Und dann wird endlich auch der Goldpreis Scam öffentlich!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Hier noch eine Meinung eines amerikanischen Gold Board Users, der meiner Meinung nach den Nagel auf den Kopf treffen könnte!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

****

Certainly this day was anything but usual.

I was surprised by the ferocity of the selloff in the golds, mainly because of the relentless selling in the regular market. I think that at this point, we will know it`s a bottom when there is a massive reversal. From my viewpoint, I did not see anything which would indicate that the golds are going down sharply except for one thing-we are at a most historic moment.

The market is about to shift gears. The rallying during the day and the gap ups are about to end and we should have some very scary selloffs. First, the news and action in JPM and City Bank will have broken the back of the confidence in the market. Second, ALL of the financials-banks, brokerage houses, insurance companies (AIG), real estates, etc. are now joining in tandem.

It is obvious that stocks are no longer bouncing. Everything poke up is met with more selling. The volume is huge but it will get much higher, perhaps 5-8 billion shares at a tradeable bottom. Yet, throughout this decline, we haven`t seen a panic. The general opinion is that we are at or near a bottom. This opinion is unbelievably pervasive if you tune into Bloomberg News.

Today`s TICK figures were easily the highest in many years. But what is more telling technically is that the put-call ratio and the ARMS index were both very low. This will change soon as the players freak and begin to dump their stocks, so that they can recoup something.

My conclusion is that we have come to that point. We will have a historic and unreal decline imminently, perhaps starting tomorrow. My guess is that we are going non-stop to under 5,000 on the Dow, and possibly lower, if the financial complex starts to shake.


Chuck

[ThaiGuru]

@Seher33

Dein Posting heute hat mich sehr gefreut, nicht nur darum, weil Du schon vor knapp einem Jahr aufs Gold verlassen hast, und es sich trotz dieser, zur Zeit, ablaufenden "Ungereimtheiten" beim Gold, und den Goldaktien, für Dich gelohnt hat.
Sämmtliche in Deinem heutigen Posting gemachten Aussagen, kann ich nur bestätigen.

Nur in einem einzigen Punkt, stimme ich Dir nicht zu.

"Die Hausse, auf die ich persönlich setze, wird aber erst viel später einsetzen"

Die kommt vielleicht viel schneller als wir bis vor kurzem noch geglaubt haben!

Morgen wird mit Sicherheit ein Meilenstein in der Geschichte der Finanzmärkte werden.

Zur Zeit in Asien schon wieder alles Blutrot

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[vomo]

Hier `mal einige Aktienumsätze von Gold- u. Silberaktien aus den USA vom 23.07.2002:

BEMA 5,01 Mio.
KINROSS 3,43 Mio.
TVX 0,28 Mio.
COEUR 5,09 Mio.
HECLA 3,83 Mio.
NEWMONT 10,29 Mio.
HARMONY 4,70 Mio.
DURBAN 7,13 Mio.
HARMONY 4,70 Mio.
PAN AM S 1,52 Mio.
BARRICK 11,15 Mio.
GOLD F. 5,08 Mio.
SSRI 2,34 Mio.

[vomo]

TOCOM gold hits 14-week lows after New York slide


TOKYO, July 24 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures slumped to
14-week lows on Wednesday as sharp overnight losses in New York
spooked individual investors and trading houses pulled the plug
on arbitrage positions.
Benchmark June 2003 tumbled 26 yen per gram to 1,179, a level
not seen on a continuation basis since March 8.
Other yen-based contracts <0#JAU:> on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange shed 25 to 29 yen.
"It`s basically a spill-over from the slide in America," one
brokerage analyst said. "Futures lost about $10 and that caused
individual investors to throw in their longs."
New York`s fall to two-week lows came despite slumping U.S.
equities, which logic says should add lustre to gold`s
traditional status as a safe-haven asset.
Stocks sank to new five-year lows on Tuesday as jitters over
tepid company profits and fears of more corporate chicanery again
slammed Wall Street.
In Tokyo, the key Nikkei share average <.N225> closed below
10,000 on Wednesday for the first time since February, hammered
lower by Wall Street`s confidence-battering downdraft.
Dealers said gold futures were also hit by an unwinding of
arbitrage positions built up in past sessions by trading houses
seeking to profit by selling in the spot market and buying on a
slightly cheaper TOCOM.
Volume was a busy 143,330 lots or 143.3 tonnes, up from
80,728 lots on Tuesday.
Open interest stood at 394,959 lots as of the end of Tuesday,
compared with Monday`s 394,331.
Spot gold <XAU=> was trading at $313.00/313.50 an ounce at
TOCOM`s 0630 GMT close, against $313.25/75 last quoted in New
York and Tuesday`s late London fix at $319.70.
In the currency market, the dollar retreated against the yen
after its stunning rally on Tuesday, fetching 117.33/38 <JPY=> at
0630 GMT.
Platinum futures <0#JPL:> ended mostly a little lower as
technical gains overnight in sister metal palladium kept gold`s
woes from weighing too heavily on the industrial metal, dealers
said.
Benchmark June 2003 gave up four yen per gram to 1,843 while
other months ranged from 10 yen down to one yen up.
Palladium <0#JPA:> contracts ranged from 18 yen up to six yen
down in typically thin trade.
Silver <0#JSV:> followed gold sharply lower. June 2003 gave
up 4.1 yen per 10 grams to 183.1 and other months lost 2.4 to 3.4
yen.
((Tim Large, Tokyo Commodities Desk [phone]
[e-mail]))
Reuters Terminal users can see other related news and rates by
double-clicking on...
<0#JAU:> Tokyo Yen Gold
<0#JPL:> Tokyo Platinum
<0#JSV:> Tokyo Silver
<0#JPA:> Tokyo Palladium
<0#GC:> New York Comex Gold
<0#SI:> New York Comex Silver
<0#PL:> New York Platinum
<0#PA:> New York Palladium
For latest prices on large pages double click on:
<GOLD/ASIA1> <GOLD/ASIA2> Asian precious metals prices


(C) Reuters 2002. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of
Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly
prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters
sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of
companies around the world.


nT34345
GOL/T

Jul-24-2002 07:42 GMT
Symbols:
JP;NIKI HK;HSI SG;STII
Source RTRS Reuters News

[vomo]

S.African stocks skid two pct as golds dive


JOHANNESBURG, July 24 (Reuters) - South African stocks
tumbled at the open on Wednesday as volatile gold shares
plummeted seven percent, tracking a weaker precious metal price.
At 0733 GMT, the broad all-share index <.JALSH> was down 1.9
percent or 178.18 points at 9,459.82 after falling to an early
low of 9,441.49, with the key gold index <.JGLDX> diving seven
percent.
Gold Fields <GFIJ.J>, the country`s second biggest gold
miner, fell 9.7 percent to 102 rand as bullion <XAU=> sank to
$312.65/3.15 from $317.00/50 when Johannesburg traders headed
home on Tuesday, hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar.
Smaller rival Harmony <HARJ.J> tumbled 5.5 percent to 132
rand. Both Harmony and Gold Fields are among the least hedged
producers, which makes them more sensitive to movements in the
gold price.
AngloGold <ANGJ.J>, the country`s biggest gold miner and
most hedged, gave up some 7.6 percent to 450 rand.
"The bottom line for today (Wednesday) is we are going to
get hammered. There`s nothing really to save us, at least in the
morning unless the rand takes a steep knock," said Daniel
Spoormaker of Consilium Capital.
South Africa`s resource-heavy stock market has largely held
its own since late last year while global equities markets have
fallen, supported by demand for safe-haven bullion shares and a
weaker local currency.
Other losers included global diversified miner Anglo
American Plc <AGLJ.J> which shed 1.53 percent to 148 rand and
rand hedged synthetic fuel producer Sasol <SOLJ.J>
Swiss-based luxury goods firm <RCHJ.J> slipped 0.5 percent
to 17.70 rand.
"The whole market is getting sold today. It doesn`t matter
which stock. Wall Street was down and it still has potential to
slide further," said Paul Patterson of PSG Investment Services.
((Wambui Chege, Johannesburg newsroom, [phone], fax:
[phone], e-mail: [e-mail]))

(C) Reuters 2002. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of
Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly
prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters
sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of
companies around the world.

[vomo]

Asian gold up in afternoon, physical traders jump in


HONG KONG, July 24 (Reuters) - Shaken by the US$10 drop in
prices in New York, physical gold traders closed out some
positions during Asian hours on Wednesday, uncertain whether
tremors from Wall Street would push bullion higher or lower in
the next session.
Spot gold <XAU=>, which opened slightly lower than New York
at US$313.10/3.60 an ounce in Hong Kong, climbed in the early
session to hit a day high of US$314.10.
But the advance recovered little of Tuesday`s plunge from the
US$323 level to a New York close at US$313.25/3.75.
"I think that it is still under pressure, but I don`t think
it will go down another US$10 tonight," said William Leung,
dealer at Standard London Asia in Hong Kong.
"The fall in the stock market is overdone. We are seeing
funds taking profit on gold (positions) and most likely putting
it back into stocks," Leung said, refering to New York-based
hedge funds.
Gold prices were very much at the mercy of stock and foreign
exchange markets and few gold traders were prepared to forecast
those markets` near-term trend.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> set another 2002 low
on Tuesday, sinking to 7,682 points, before recovering to close
just 82.24 points off at 7,702.34.
In most markets, including gold, higher levels of volatility
were the order of the day, with professionals the chief market
participants.
"We saw a gap down at the US$317 level last night," said
Leung, indicating this was proof of the possibility of another
big move in gold.
Overseas-based funds were active in the spot market in the
Asia morning session and Japanese funds in TOCOM futures.
"We saw good, two-way trading following the drop on TOCOM,"
said Pauline Hung, who forecast that the market would edge lower
with Europe`s entry.
Good support would be found at US$310, Hung said.
Physical gold traders were seen during Asian hours, buying
back at the market`s lower levels, said a trader with a market
market.
Many physical gold end-users also speculate in the market and
do not hedge their short positions; others buying gold on credit,
pay interest on their account until the market price suits them
and then buy "back" gold or complete the transaction.
Trading on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was brisk for most of
the day. TOCOM`s benchmark gold futures <0#JAU:> contract June
2003 sank 26 yen to 1,179 yen on heavy trade of 84,801 contracts,
higher than Monday`s heavy turnover of around 75,000 contracts.
Hong Kong tael gold <TAEL=>, which is traded on the Chinese
Gold and Silver Exchange, ended the morning at HK$2,916 a tael,
higher than the open at HK$2,912.
Silver was unchanged from the open at US$4.87/4.89.
((Kathleen Kearney Hong Kong Newsroom [phone], Fax
[phone] [e-mail]))

Subscribers can click on <GOLD/ASIA1> and <GOLD/ASIA2> to
view prices in the region.
Reuter Terminal users can see related news by double clicking
on:
[MTL] - Metals Service Headlines
[GOL] - Precious metals [MET] - Non-Ferrous Metals News
[DRV] - Reports and news of derivatives markets
For examples of futures price chains double click on:
<0#GC:> New York Comex Gold <0#SI:> New York Comex Silver
<0#PL:> New York Platinum <0#PA:> New York Palladium
<0#JAU:> Tokyo yen Gold
[GOL/CN] PBOC weekly gold fixing
For latest prices on large pages double click on:
<RING=> LME Overview <METALS> Metal cash prices
<0#PREC> Precious metals prices

(C) Reuters 2002. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of
Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly
prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters
sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of
companies around the world.

[Seher33]

@thaiguru
Wäre schön, wenn Du recht hättest !
Ich für meinen Teil denke mal, das einige ,,bullisch" ein-
gestellte Derivatehändler mit ,,heißem" Geld am gestrigen
Tag abgezockt worden sind und jetzt heulend vor dem kläglichem Rest ihres eingesetzten Geldes sitzen! Leider
zunächst einmal auch für uns zum Nachteil. Und noch grausamer wird für diese Positivzocker sein, wenn Gold in
der nächsten Zeit genau den Kurs nehmen wird, auf den sie
gesetzt hatten!
Nur eine Frage noch : weshalb gehst Du schon vom morgigen
historischen Tag aus???
Seher

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Also, was ich mir immer - aber erst aus der Erfahrung der letzten Wochen - nicht ganz vorstellen kann ist, warum der Goldpreis bei einem Abtreten von, z B., aber naheliegend, der JP Morgan steigen soll.

Warum: Am letzten Freitag scheint sich ja was geregt zu haben in den Abrechnungen der am. Banken, den umsonst ist der POG nicht quasi aus dem Stand um 7 $ hochgegangen. Schätze, man mußte masiv eindecken.

Seither hat sich (in Bankkreisen) die Erkenntnis durchgesetzt, dass es so nicht weiter gehen kann. Statement eines JPM-gys: Der POG hat Potential bis 327 $ (Lechtz), wenn, ja wenn er nicht unter 317 $ )(Ächtz) plumpst. Ich haben dann gestern bereits gepostet, dass das auch sicher passieren wird. Und genau so kam es - noch viel schlimmer: POG rd. 312 $ (2x Ächtz)! (Das Statement von JPM habe ich bei Thai-Guru gelesen.)

Soviel zur Vorgeschichte! Aber warum ist das möglich, dass das Krisenmetall Gold in genau der - wie ich meine - bereits laufenden Krise das Gegenteil von dem macht, was man erwartet? Es fällt!

Die Vögelchen zitschern es vom Dach in den Nachrichten kann man es schon vernehmen: Ganz Amerika ein tiefer Sumpf und an konkreten Beispielen mangelt es nicht, ganz im Gegenteil, es wird noch viel mehr an Tageslicht kommen. Das scheint sogar gewiß!

Also alles in allem: Krise steigt, Gold fällt?! Paradox, ist aber so!

Ich denke nun, dass, wenn die Stunde für JPM schlägt, diese den Chapter 11 beantragt und damit unter "Gläubigerschutz" steht! Also kein Geld und Gold für niemanden. Und hätten sie noch so viele Verpflichtungen aus den Leerverkäufen zu erfüllen! Sehr mulmig der Gedanke, denn vor diesem Hintergrund können die Ami-Banken ja lustig, frei und munter drauf los spekulieren. Schaut halt blöd aus der Ch. 11, macht keinen schlanken Fuss, aber: Who cares?

Ich frage mich ja schon seit langem, warum die Gold-Lease-Rates ja immer mehr sinken? Im langen Trend tun sie das, im kurzfristigen steigen sie immer wieder, immer knapp bevor wieder auf den POG eingedroschen wird!

Warum die Lease-Rates sinken ist mir irgendwie rätselhaft. Eigentlich sollte ja bei dem (von uns?) angenommenen und bekanntermaßen steigendem Risiko der Verleiher, das verborgte Gold nicht mehr wieder zu sehen, diese Mieten ja steigen. Auch müsste bei der steigenden Nachfrage ja schon diese Miete ständig steigen.

Tut sie nicht. Sie bleibt nicht einmal gleich! Offenbar gibt es immer mehr Gold und deshalb ist es immer billiger zu vermieten. Das Risiko scheint den, mehrheitlich wohl Zentralbanken aus der Vermietung nicht so hoch zu sein.

Mich deucht, da gibt es noch ein anderes, viel größeres Risiko, wenn die Zentralbanken es nicht billig täten, ihr Gold zu vermieten:

Ich denke, jede der großen Wirtschaftsmächte (inkl. China) erleidet einen erheblich größeren Schaden, wenn sie die USA als kaufkräftigen Wirtschaftspartner verlieren! Deshalb gewähren sie die Hilfe und rechnen auch mit dem Verlust des Goldes.

Offenbar sitzen alle im gleichen Boot. Gold ist schwer und deshalb kippen wir es über Bord, damit unser Schifflein nicht untergeht.

Nicht zum Golde drängt es und am Golde hängt es, nein, an den USA und deren wirtschaftlichem Überleben. Und die beobachtbaren, eigentlich bereits globalen Anstrengung um den Karre USA aus dem Dreck zu ziehen, sind ja enorm!

Da scheinen sich wohl alle recht einig zu sein, dass hier was unternommen werden muss, um den Amis und scheinbar der ganzen Welt zu helfen.

Einzig die indischen Gold- und Silberschmiede müssen jetzt halt auf Speckstein umsteigen, die Pakistanis kaufen Uran und Plutonium! :-)

Ich hoffe ich irre mich, den diese Gedanken kamen mir erst nachdem ich in Gold und Silber investiert hatte. Die inovativen Amis brechen gern mit alten Traditionen.

Ich bin zwar gegen Gewalt aber über die Globalisierungsgegner beginne ich allmählich "wohlwollender" nachzudenken! Die Scheiße, die sich die Amis eingebrokt haben, dürfen wir jetzt alle gemeinsam auslöffeln! Mahlzeit!

[ThaiGuru]

@Seher33

Weil ich davon ausgehe, dass heute weltweit, und in Amerika die Märkte massiv crashen werden!

Asien hat es heute schon mal vorgezeigt!

Europäische Börsen, sind jetzt gerade dabei, weiter runterzugehen!

War auch für mich in Thailand, heute im Minus, mit 3.48%, kein Zuckerschlecken.

Japan seit 6 Monaten. zum 1. x wieder unter 10000, auf 9947 Punkten, trotz massivster staatlicher Unterstützungskäufen!

Zudem gehe ich stark davon aus, dass die Goldpreis-, und Derivativ Könige, JP-Morgan, und City Group, heute in den USA nochmals stark crashen werden.

Wenn es trotzdem heute dank PPT anders kommen sollte, ist geht es halt noch etwas länger. Doch unsere Misere wird auf jeden Fall bald vorbei sein, auch wenn es viele Leute, gerade jetzt, fast nicht mehr glauben können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[YoyoStock]

@ Silberfinger

du sprichst mir aus der Seele, diese Gedanken hatte ich auch schon hin und wieder. Aber man neigt dazu sie zu verdrängen und zweifelt an sich selbst , nach dem Motto, bin ich veilleicht abartig mit meinen Gedanken, so kann das nie sein.

Na ja , vielleicht ist ja doch ein Gedankenfehler ?!

[hotspot33]

Gerade haben wir die Attacke des PPT gegen Gold und Silber wieder mal live erleben können :

... DAX fällt ins Bodenlose
... POG steigt
... und wird gleich danach umso mehr niedergeprügelt

Aus dem Säbelrasseln Weltekes ist längst ein totaler Krieg geworden. Es wird gekämpft bis zum letzten Mann...

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Mal beobachten, ist wie gestern: Die Lease-Rates sind gerade quer Beet gestiegen. Ich schätze, im Laufe der nächsten Stunden liegt der POG um 305 - 307 $.

Wer hält dagegen?

[ginagina]

Auszug aus #1569
Ich denke nun, dass, wenn die Stunde für JPM schlägt, diese den Chapter 11 beantragt und damit unter "Gläubigerschutz" steht!

Wenn das so kommt, wäre es da nicht wahrscheinlich das die anderen Banken ihren `Sondermüll` noch schnell zu JPM übertragen. Einer spielt das Schmuddelkind, der Rest ist sauber?

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

@ginagina

Wer die eingentlichen handelnden Institute sind, ist für mich auch nicht vollständig geklärt. Denn wer kauft das viele Gold eigentlich, das da tagtäglich von den Banken offenbar im Übermass angeboten wird und die Kurse kaputt macht. So wie sich das darstellt, ist das ohnehin nur ein Geschiebe zwischen den Banken.

Jeder Käufer ist doch am Steigen des Wertes seiner Erwerbungen interessiert. Wer bei diesem Spiel im großen Stil mitspielt, scheint offenbar andere Interessen zu haben.

Wenn es nun soweit ist (Ch. 11) und damit die Kacke so richtig dampft, wird es sicher einiges einfacher zu regeln geben, was vorher unpraktisch wäre. Keine Ahnung wie im Konkreten das dann abläuft, aber um Unerfreuliches gleich mitzuerledigen, wird es sich schon lohnen, mal fest noch in den Mülleimer nachzutreten und reinzustopfen.

Wer weiß, wenn der Müllwagen wieder kommt ...

[ThaiGuru]

@SchlimmerSilberFinger
und
@YoyoStock

Es kann nicht sein, was nicht sein kann!

Ich glaube nicht an Eure negativen Ueberlegungen zu Gold, und will Euch mit einigen Gegebenheiten aufzeigen, warum ich an ein solches Szenario, das einer Katastrophe gleichkäme, nicht glaube.

1. Die Goldpreise fallen nicht durch echte physische Goldverkäufe, sondern durch die "Fiat" Ausgabe von Gold. Also verkaufen einige wenige Institute Gold auf dem Papier, das gar nicht, (auf zig Jahre) physisch vorhanden ist.

2. Die Verkäufer sind hauptsächlich dieselben Institute, bei denen die gössten Gold Derivativ Positionen liegen, die, nie und nimmer, je am Markt physisch glatt gestellt werden könnten, ohne dass dadurch die Preise sich extrem nach oben bewegen, und dadurch der eigenen finanzielle Ruin riskiert wird.

3. Da bereits bewiesen ist, dass die Zentralbanken ihre physischen Gold Reserven, zum einem beachtlichen Teil, von bis 15000 Gold ist die Rede, bereits verliehen haben, bin ich überzeugt davon, dass weitere "echte" Zentralbankverkäufe ganz einfach nicht mehr möglich sind.

Genaue Zahlen zu diesen "ZB Gold Ausleihungen" sind jedoch nicht verfügbar, weil die Zentralbanken die Höhen dieser *Ausleihungen", aus mir selbst erklärlichen Gründen, nach Aussen hin aber noch unbekannten Gründen, nicht bekannt gibt, und diese "ausgeliehenen" Goldbestände in ihren Büchern, einfach so weiter aufführt, als ob sie physisch noch verhanden sein würden.

Dass diejenigen Institute, die dieses physische Gold von den Zentralbanken gemietet, und schon längstens weiterverkauft haben, hauptsächlich die genau gleichen Institute, wie z.Bsp. JP-Morgan sind, die jetzt durch ihre irrsinnigen Derivativ Positionen in Papier Gold, bei Goldpreisen über 330.- Dollar pro Unze, in ihrer Existenz bedroht sind, ist eine Tatsache, und kein Gerücht, wie viele leider immer noch glauben.

Der Goldpreis fällt nicht aus Fundamentalen Gründen, sondern durch die andauernde Neu-Ausgabe von Papier Gold Kontrakte. Das sollte Euch eigentlich auch bewusst sein.

4. Die Gold und Silber Minen Fallen zur Zeit nicht weil Gold und Silber keine Zukunft hat, in einem wirtschaftlichen Desaster, sondern weil viele Leute, die relativ spät investiert haben, heute unsicher sind, und sich das Preisverhalten der Edelmetalle in dieser zur Zeit stattfindenden Wirtschaftskriese nicht erklären können, und desshalb in Panik ihre Gold und Silber Aktien verkaufen.
Viele institutionelle Anleger verhalten sich ebenso.

Das die Gold und Silber Minen zusätzlich noch in immer grösseren Dimensionen geshortet wurden, und auch jetzt gerade geshortet werden, ist auch kein Gerücht, sondern eine Tatsache. Von welchen Instituten die Minen Aktien Shorterei hauptsächlich ausgeht, dürfte eigentlich auch auf der Hand liegen.

5. Die Ausage von einigen Postern im Goldboard, dass im Falle eines totalen wirtschaftlichen Zusammenbruchs, niemand mehr die möglichkeit häte, Gold und Silber zu kaufen, und der Besitzer dieser Edelmetalle, weil man diese ja nicht essen könne, darauf sitzen bleiben würde, ist licht weg falsch.

Erstens glaube ich nicht an einen solchen totalen Wirtschaftlichen Zusammenbruch, und zweitens hätte Gold und Silber in einem solchen Horrorszenario sicher eine sehr grosse Bedeutung, als das einzig übrig gebliebene Medium "Geld", ohne den Zusatz "Fiat". In Argentinien sieht man ja jetzt gerade, wie ein solches Wirtschafts Chaos, bei dem die Bewohner nicht einmal mehr an ihr erspartes Geld herankommen, weil die Banken geschlossen wurden, wo extreme "Fiat" Geld- Knappheit herrscht, jedermann alles kaufen kann, wenn er Gold, oder Silber besitzt. In Argentinien hat sich übrigens auch klar gezeigt, dass Imobilienanlagen in einer Kriesenzeit keinen Schutz vor Wertverlust bietet, wie viele leider auch hier in Europa immer noch glauben. In Argentinien sind die Imobilenpreis im Schnitt über 50% eingebrochen. Gold und Silber hat aber diesen Schutz vor Wertverlust in Argentinien allen Leuten geboten, die diese Edelmetalle besitzen.

6. Es ist sehr stark anzunehmen, dass sobald die Gold-, und Silberpreis Manipulationen allgemein bekannt werden, oder z.Bsp. eine JP-Morgan den Jordan runter geht, dieser unsägliche Goldpreis "Betrug" zu einem Ende kommen wird, werden Gold und Silber wirklich teuer werden, und die Minen Aktienpreise werden wieder massiv ansteigen.

Die Vergangenheit hat ja auch immer wieder gezeigt, dass die grosse Masse von Anlegern immer erst dann kauft wenn die Preise schon massiv angestiegen sind.

Bei meiner 1. Kaufempfehlung am 10. Januar 2002, für *DROOY* im WGold Board, stand der Preis bei ca. 1.50$, stieg dann bis fast 6.-$, und stand gestern wieder bei 3.63 Dollar. Bei 1.50$ haben die wenigsten gekauft, bei ca. 4.-$ pro Aktie haben in meinem Thread User geschrieben, "jetzt aber sofort raus", und als DROOY dann bei fast 6.-$ stand, haben vermutlich sehr viele Leute angefangen zu kaufen, die jetzt mit einem grossem Verlust verkaufen möchten.

ThaiGuru wird nichts, aber auch gar nichts verkaufen. Im Gegenteil bietet mir dieser "organisierte" Preis Crash beim Gold und Silber, und den Gold und Silberminen die Chance mich zusätzlich günstig mit einigen Minen Titeln einzudecken, die ich vorher übersehen hatte, wie z.Bsp. SAMEX MINING CO., OTC BB: *SMXMF.OB*

Von mir aus kann das Goldcabal den Goldpreis weiter drücken. Bis auf "Null" wird es sicher nicht gehen, was ich mir bei einigen Aktien des Goldcabals jedoch gut vorstellen könnte.

Doch wie schon früher mehrfach gesagt, jeder sollte selbst seine eigene Entscheidung treffen!


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Economy…

Economy World

07/24 04:34

Japan Exports Fall in June for First Time in 6 Months

By Daisuke Takato, with reporting by Yoshiko Matsushita


Tokyo, July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan`s exports fell for the first time in six months in June, fueling concern a recovery in the world`s second-biggest economy may falter as the rising yen threatens to cut earnings at companies such as Mazda Motor Corp.

Exports declined 3.9 percent last month from May, a Ministry of Finance report said. The trade surplus rose to 1.12 trillion yen ($9.5 billion) from 907.6 billion yen in May as imports dropped 10.6 percent, more than twice the decline in exports.

Japanese stocks fell, led by Sony Corp. and other exporters, on concern a stock-market slide in the U.S. -- where the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index is on course for its worst year since the Great Depression -- will curb spending in their biggest overseas market. That may derail a recovery in Japan as record unemployment keeps the brakes on consumer spending.

``Japan may not be able endure an economic slump in the U.S.,`` said Tetsuro Sawano, an economist at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities. ``A continued drop in U.S. stocks and the dollar could jeopardize Japan`s recovery.``

The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average fell 1.6 percent in early afternoon trade. Canon Inc., which gets 70 percent of its revenue overseas, fell 3.7 percent to 3,920 yen and shares of Sony, which gets about two-thirds of its revenue from overseas sales, fell 1.9 percent to 5,320 yen.

The yen`s 12 percent gain this year may also squeeze exporters.

It takes six to 12 months for the stronger yen to start curbing exporters` sales, economists said, because most companies set terms for export contracts several months before delivery. Exporters often hedge to protect against currency changes.

Currency Risk

Mazda`s second-half profit may suffer if the yen holds between 115 and 116 to the dollar, President Lewis Booth said last week. The yen was recently trading at 117.29 to the dollar from 117.54 in late New York trade yesterday, when the dollar had its biggest gain in four months.

The Japanese currency rose to 115.54 last week.

Canon raised its annual profit forecast to 178 billion yen in April, based on the yen averaging 130 to the dollar. The central bank`s latest quarterly Tankan survey showed that large manufacturers expected profits to rise by a third this year, based on the yen averaging about 126.

The currency has averaged 125 to the dollar so far this business year and 117.90 this month, according to Bloomberg data.

Imports

Imports fell 5.1 percent last month from a year earlier, the 11th straight decline, led by office equipment, clothing and crude oil.

The drop in imports ``points to weakness in domestic demand,`` said Ayako Mitsui, an economist at UBS Warburg (Japan) Ltd.

In the first six months of the year, oil imports fell 10 percent to the lowest level in 12 years, the report showed, as Japan`s third recession in a decade lowered energy demand. Japan is the world`s second-largest oil importer, shipping in most of its energy needs.

Without adjusting for seasonal changes, the trade surplus rose to 1.3 trillion yen last month from 759 billion yen a year earlier, today`s report showed. Exports rose 8.9 percent and imports fell 5.1 percent from a year ago.

Japan`s trade surplus rose to 2.75 trillion yen in the second quarter as exports rose 6.3 percent from a year earlier and imports dropped 4.5 percent.

[Insiderin007]

@Thaiguru
Mir ist eines bzgl. des Goldpreises aber nicht klar:
Ok,ok, die Sache mit dem Verkauf von Papiergold ist hinlänglich bekannt.
Aber das ganze Konstrukt würde doch zusammenstürzen (bzw. der Goldpreis müßte zwangsläufig ! explodieren), wenn es Menschen, Anleger, Institutionen gäbe, die wirklich ausreichend nach PHYSISCHEM !!! Gold nachfragen und Lieferung verlangen.
ABER: Dem scheint nicht so zu sein.
Oder siehst Du das anders ?
Wer sind die Goldkäufer außer der Schmuckindustrie (von mir aus noch Dentalbereich, Elektronik etc.)...??
Wo sind sie denn, die Goldkäufer ?
Wo ist die Nachfrage nach dem physischem Metall ?
Und wir Anleger: Wir kaufen die Minen (natürlich wegen des größeren Hebels...), viele, viele denken aber gar nicht daran, auch nur einmal den Hintern zur Bank zu bewegen und auch nur eine Münze zu kaufen...
Ja woher soll denn dann die Nachfrage kommen ?
Ich sehe unabhängig von dieser ganzen Bankengeschichte nur dann eine Chance für Gold, wenn der normale Kleinanleger, so wie die Japaner kürzlich, bei der Bank auftaucht und kaufen will... Aber haben genug Leute momentan dafür genug Geld übrig ? Oder wird es immer mehr Leute geben, die sich freuen, wenn die Familie satt wird, weil Vater gerade arbeitslos geworden ist... etc. ?!
Insiderin007

[schuh]

Gold jetzt unter 307 USD dank massiver Interventionen

Aber es gibt nur noch eine Lösung etwas Vermögen zu retten, physisches Material, die Märkte stehen kurz vor dem Kollaps
und dann werden die Metalle drastisch reagieren,
ob Papiergold (Minen, zertifikate usw.) noch was wert sind wage ich langsam immer mehr zu bezweifeln

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jul2002/tc200…

By Jane Black

The Bells: Apocalypse Now -- or Later?

Like WorldCom, Ma Bell`s hurting brood also face an uncertain future. The FCC`s Powell has to figure how bad -- and how fast it`ll get here

On July 21, WorldCom (WCOME ), the country`s second-largest telephone company, filed the country`s largest-ever bankruptcy. The filing, which listed $107 billion in assets, renewed widespread selling of stocks.

Investors and politicians want action -- and fast. Many eyes on Wall Street and in Washington are trained on Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Powell, the man charged with regulating the beleaguered telecom industry. On July 16, Powell promised that the FCC was working hard to prevent the catastrophe at WorldCom from spreading: "No sector needed less to be kicked in the gut," he said. But "we continue to be focused on what policy can do to ensure the economic viability of competitors and the competitive vision that were imagined by Congress and the 1996 [Telecommunications] Act."

Just what steps Powell should take to ensure stability in the short run and competition in the long run depend on how the sector shakes out -- and how quickly. Two divergent views are circulating, and both scenarios see continued turmoil, not only for WorldCom but also for the incumbent local-phone carriers Verizon (VZ ), SBC Communications (SBC ), and Bell South (BLS ), also known as the Baby Bells.

BACK TO THE FUTURE? Under the so-called Apocalypse Now scenario, technological innovation and its economic consequences are propelling the Bells, like the long-distance carriers before them, toward bankruptcy. The new generation of networking technology is undermining the Bells` business model at the precise moment that demand for their services is beginning to erode, making it impossible to pay off tens of billions of dollars of debt on time.

Under the second view, the "evolutionary" one, the Bells are permitted to merge with long-distance rivals WorldCom, Sprint (FON ), and AT&T (T ). It`s a back-to-the-future scenario, but with one key difference. As part of the deal, the Bells would lose their local monopolies and face growing competition from cable, wireless -- and each other.

Top regulators at the FCC are, for now, in the evolutionary camp. They believe, with the right supervision, that competition will thrive, and the most nimble Bells will survive. "Of course the Bells will use the current financial situation as an excuse to roll back competition," says one source close to the regulatory discussions. "But that doesn`t mean regulators will roll over and play dead. We would have to change the law to roll back competition."

TITANIC + LUSITANIA. Powell has indicated that he`s ready to let evolution take its course. In his July 16 remarks, the chairman stressed that a July 15 report published in The Wall Street Journal that he was now open to a merger between WorldCom and a Baby Bell has in fact been his position all along. But that`s precisely what scares the doomsayers. "Huge size brought down the players, and here he is proposing something even bigger. He`s lashing the Titanic to the Lusitania," warns Gordon Cook, an independent telecom analyst and editor of the Cook Report.

The Apocalypse Now camp comprises tech-savvy network and financial experts, many of whom are former Bell employees. One of the ringleaders is financial analyst Roxanne Googin, who edits industry newsletter High Tech Investor. Googin has been warning about an implosion in the telecom sector since September, 2000, a year before Wall Street became aware of the problem`s severity. Now she cautions that the crisis isn`t limited to telecom upstarts. The problem is the Baby Bells, she says.

Here`s why: When AT&T was split up and the Baby Bells were created in 1984, regulators ruled that the new companies would be allowed to earn a profit in proportion to the assets under their control. As a result, the Bells came up with an extremely expensive technical architecture and guaranteed customers 99.99%-reliable service to justify the cost. Under this new arrangement, the Bells took out 20- or 25-year bonds to finance the equipment, figuring that nothing would prevent them from paying back the money.

GRIM PROSPECT. Things have changed dramatically, however. And the next generation of telecom equipment, based on the Internet protocol standard, is expected to cut prices by as much as 90%, making the delivery of voice and data a commodity service. Worse, the Bells are already seeing their traditional local-phone business erode. In 2001, all three saw the number of phone lines they provide drop from 1% to 3%. The number of minutes Bell customers spend on the phone also is falling. In 2001, total Bell South long-distance minutes dropped 4.4%, and Verizon`s fell 1%. Only SBC reported an increase -- of 0.6%.

High equipment costs and eroding revenues greatly increase the risk that the Bells could default on some of their loans, Googin says. That`s a grim prospect: Verizon has $60 billion in debt, SBC has about $30 billion, and Bell South has just under $20 billion. "The return the Bells can get on invested capital is declining. EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization] is going down year over year. And the cost of borrowing is increasing. It`s Economics 101," says Cook. "The only question is how long it will take before you no longer have a viable business."

That`s where the "evolutionists" come in. They don`t deny that these forces are at work, but they say it will take 5 years to 10 years before the Baby Bells face extinction. "The spectacular collapse of some carriers was the result of the irrational overinvestment during the Internet bubble," says Andrew Odlyzko, director of the Digital Technology Center at the University of Minnesota. "These companies did not have a stable customer base and were in markets with low barriers to entry. Neither of these applies to the Bells."

"UNNATURAL SEPARATION." The evolutionists believe that Verizon, SBC, and Bell South have time to turn their ships around. The first step would be for each Bell to link up with one of the three flagging long-distance players: WorldCom, Sprint, and AT&T. The relinkage of local and long-distance service would give the Bells the scale they need to compete -- against cable, wireless, and each other. "It`s the unnatural separation of local and long-distance business that made the Bells` business model obsolete, not the other way around," says Marty Hyman, vice-president of Booz Allen Hamilton`s telecom practice.

It`s understandable why Powell finds the evolutionists` argument more palatable. The Bells` survival likely would help calm the markets in the short term and, if all goes according to plan, set the stage for competition which, after all, is his mandate.

But Powell ignores the doomsayers at his peril. The Bells seem to have kept competition at arm`s length since their formation in 1984. Take what happened after SBC purchased former Midwestern Bell company Ameritech in 1998. To gain approval for the merger, SBC promised that it would compete for local customers in 30 new markets within 30 months or pay fines up to $1.2 billion.

SOFT LANDING? SBC went through the motions, leasing space and buying expensive telecom equipment, but it soon gave up, according to TeleTruth, a New York-based consumer advocacy group. In March, TeleTruth requested congressional hearings to investigate both SBC`s alleged failure to follow through and the FCC`s failure to punish the company. SBC maintains it has met the requirements.

Clearly, Powell has a tough job ahead. Dewayne Hendricks, CEO of telecom consultants Dandin Group, says the chairman`s job is akin to being an air-traffic controller trying to orchestrate soft landings for jumbo jets careening out of control. The first step is to close the airport so new planes -- competitors -- can`t take off. The next step is to do everything to prevent any more violent crashes.

"The problem is the planes have to come down sometime," says Hendricks. It may be better to ease the speed of the descent but not waste valuable resources trying to prevent the inevitable, he says. After all, uncertainty is more upsetting to the markets than knowing that something has to end so something else can take its place.

[Sovereign]

Tja, Gold wurde heute zeitweise auf 306 $ gebasht. Die Minen werden wohl heute in NY auch wieder einen auf den Deckel bekommen...Wie gesagt: Nachkaufen kann ich aktuell nicht mehr. Verkaufen werde ich allerdings auch nicht (dazu bin ich einfach schon zu lange dabei). Also abwarten und Malt trinken lautet meine Devise...ein Sovereign rennt nicht davon

Gruß

Sovereign

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=25801

Gold Crisis Will Happen?

24.07.2002 13:45


South African gold analysts believe the retreat from gold equities by investors seeking bargains among the debris of general equities is premature. JP Morgan`s South African-based gold analyst James Wellsted, says the sell-off in local gold shares, which saw the JSE`s gold index shed 7 percent today, presents a buying opportunity in what was widely regarded as a radically overvalued sector only a month ago.
Despite a narrow trading range for bullion over the past month, the gold index has retraced much of its gains made earlier this year. The index ended the day on 2690 points, almost 25 percent below its year-high of 3741 and although the bull run of the first quarter has slowed to a trot, gold is still the year`s star-performer.

The gold index gained 2.8 percent for the June quarter, against a 3.2 percent drop in the All Share Index, while the metals and mining sector lost 10 percent and the mining finance board dropped 8 percent. Financials may have outpaced the gold counters in the three month period with a 6 percent climb, but the gloss comes off this achievement considering banks conceded 8 percent in the first quarter.

"It`s just way too early to panic; the fundamentals for gold are still good," said Wellsted. He said the fall in gold stocks this week – the index lost 6 percent yesterday – was based on the notion that global equity markets had bottomed out. "When we see real signs of a recovery and not a lot of guessing then maybe there could be a case for getting out of gold, but right now all the factors that pushed the price up are still very much in place," he said.


[Neftegaz.ru]

[kaepntnemo]

@#1578ff - physische nachfrage:
nur ne kleine anekdote von heute, die mich aber ehrlich gesagt, doch etwas verwirrt, handelt es sich doch um die groesste deutsche Bank:
<zitat>
Guten Tag Herr ...,
leider muß ich Ihnen mitteilen, daß zur Zeit keine Silver Eagle verfügbar sind. Der Mitarbieter aus dem Münzhandel sagte mir aber, daß sobald er wieder welche kriegt, mich anruft und für mich reserviert. Ich kann Sie also auch nur darauf vertrösten.
</zitat>
Bei Gold mags einfacher sein, da hab ich bisher keine erfahrungen, aber SILBER?? Ist doch angeblich so billig?

Ansonsten wird ja wohl die preisbildung zu 99% ueber die Kontrakte durchgefuehrt, oder habe ich das falsch verstanden? Echte Lieferung findet doch ausser schmuck& industrie praktisch nicht statt?
mfg nemo

[skeet.ht]

Es geht nur darum das Gold nicht als sicherer Hafen erkannt wird und so wie es ausseiht klappt es für die nächste Zeit!

Gruß

[antarra]

Staatsanleihen erleben Ansturm nach Aktienflucht

Einen heftigen Nachfrageansturm erleben heute die Staatsanleihen in den USA, die von Investoren als “sichere Häfen” heimgesucht werden, weil die Aktienmärkte zuletzt deutliche Mittelabflüsse verzeichnen. Die 10-jährige Staatsanleihe rentiert aktuell mit 4,265% nach einem Anstieg um 1,125 Basispunkte, während 30-jährige Staatsanleihen um 1,25 Basispunkte auf 5,195% Rendite ansteigen können. Währenddessen muss der Dollar die Gewinne des Vortages wieder abgeben und notiert zur Stunde mit 99,73 Cents zum Euro.

[ThaiGuru]

@Insiderin007

Genau das ist es ja gerade was das Goldcabal mit Unterstützung des IMF, einiger Zentralbanken, der FED etc.
wollen.

Die Investoren zu verunsichern, und sie im Glauben lassen, dass es genügend physisches Gold um den Bedarf zu deken, ja noch mehr, dass die Investoren glauben es gäbe Gold im Ueberfluss auf dem Markt, und das darum die Goldpreise fallen würden.

Das ist aber nicht wahr!

Es gibt seit Jahren zu wenig physisches Gold!

Die Nachfrage kann auch nur noch durch "Ausleihungen" von Zentralbanken, IMF, Weltbank etc. aufrecht erhalten werden.

Die gesammte Welt-Jahres-Gold-Produktion, reicht seit Jahren nicht mehr aus um die Nachfrage zu decken!

Das sind belegte Tatsachen, keine Gerüchte!

Habe schon so viele Postings dazu in meinen Threads gemacht, und das anhand von offiziellen Zahlen belegt, dass ich das heute, nicht nochmals im Detail wiederholen möchte.

Tatsache ist auch, dass weder eine Schweizerische Nationalbank *SNB*, noch eine Deutsche Zentralbank *BB*, je im Detail bekanntgegeben hat, vieviel Prozente ihrer angegebenen Goldreserven, den nun wirklich noch physisch vorhanden sind, und wieviel Prozente dieser dem "Volk" vorgelegten Zahlen der sogenannten Staats Goldreserven, nur noch aus "Papier Quittungen" für ausgeliehenes "Gold" bestehen. Es könnte gerade so gut schon alles Gold physisch weg sein. Wenn es ja noch physisch da wäre könnten diese ZB es ja ohne weiteres auch im Detail aufführen. Aber das machen sie nicht. Warum wohl?

Die SNB und auch die BB geben auch physisch nicht mehr vorhandenes Gold als Bestände aus.

Habe auch schon mehrmals solche Postings gemacht, die dies eindeutig belegen.

Die SNB weist z. Bsp. in ihren Billanzen, Einnahmen aus "Verleihungen", die in Wirklichkeit von den "Mietern", schon längstens verkauft wurden, um eben diese starke Gold Nachfrage, die Du leider nicht klar sehen kannst, zu befriedigen.

Dauernd werden mit allen möglichen Mitteln von den Goldcabal-Banken, zum Teil mit Hilfe des IMF, Weltbank, FED etc. versucht neue Goldlieferungsquellen zu finden.

Die Schweiz mit ihren Teil Goldverkäufen von total 1300 Tonnen, (ca. 680 Tonnen davon sind bereits verkauft worden!) ist eine der letzten grossen Quellen.

Neuerdings wird gerade versucht den Libanon dazu zu "bewegen" seine physischen Goldreserven, übrigens, prozentual zur Bevölkerung, mit Abstand, immer noch die grössten im nahen Osten, zu reduzieren. Habe auch dazu schon einen Artikel gepostet. Die Russen werden jetzt sogar auch noch als Goldfeuerlöscher benutzt, wie im Falle der kürzlich bekanngegebenen "Ausleihung" von 40 Tonnen physischen Goldes.

Ueberleg doch einfach logisch!

Falls wie Du befürchtest, vielleicht Gold im Ueberfluss vorhanden sein sollte, und darum die Goldpreise fallen, dann ergibt doch die "Anmietung" von physischem Gold bei den Zentralbanken, überhaupt keinen Sinn. Umsomehr nicht, weil bei der "Goldmiete" ja, neben den Transportkosten, noch Zinsen dafür bezahlt werden müssen.

Oder glaubst Du wirklich, dass irgendjemand dauern Gold gegen Zinsen mietet, nur um dieses gemietete physische Gold, andern Ortes weiter zu lagern, nur weil Gold so schön anzufassen, und anzusehen ist.

Dieses Gold wird dringend benötigt, um die physische starke Goldnachfrage zu decken.

Falls sich aber die Anleger, wie anscheinend jetzt auch Du, verunsichern lassen, und dazu verleitet werden physisches Gold zu verkaufen, würde das Goldcabal wiederum einem weiteren Zeitgewinn herausholen, um aus ihren selbstvernichtenden, horrenden, Goldderivativ Geschäften rauszukommen, und einen drohenden Kollaps zu verhindern, oder mindestens zu verzögern.

Du kannst mir ruhig glauben, Insiderin007, es ist !!!nicht!!! mehr genügend physisches Gold vorhanden, wenn freie Goldmarkt Verhältnisse vorherrschen würden, auch wenn es vielleicht für einige Leute gerade nicht danach aussehen mag. Doch gerade das ist das Ziel des Coldcabals, und vielleicht auch einiger Regierungen?

Beim physischen Silber ist Lage noch bei weitem explosiver als beim Gold. aber danach hast Du mich ja nicht gefragt.

Nur wenn die grosse Masse der Anleger, inkl. Inder, Chinesen, Thailänder, Vietnamesen, etc. auf einmal dazu manipuliert werden können, zu glauben, dass man alles Gold verkaufen müsse, dann gäbe es auf einmal wirklich zuviel Gold auf dieser Welt.

Die Alternative wäre dann "Fiat" Papier Geld!!

Ich glaube nicht, dass es dazu je kommen wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Seher33]

@all
Wir haben einen wunderschönen pullback von 306 auf 311 $
hinter uns- das war das Ende vom heftigen, erschreckenden
Abschwung !
Leutchen, anschnallen, es geht wieder bergauf !
@thaiguru
Die schönsten Argumente nützen nichts, wenn die Masse kopf-
los wird!
Nur auf lange Sicht werden sich die von Dir genannten Tatsachen durchsetzen können.
@finger
Ich stimme Dir zu, das alle Länder bemüht sind, den USA
zu helfen.
Nur denke ich, wird Gold nicht aktiv gedrückt, sondern die
Hegder handeln nach dem Motto: entweder fällt alles oder
steigt alles. Hier bietet der seit ewigen Zeiten manipulierte Goldmarkt eine wundervolle Gelegenheit, die
Gefühle der ängstlichen Massen hervorragend auszunutzen...
Aber dieses geschieht nur sehr kurzfristig. In nächster
Zeit wird Gold stark anziehen, der Ausverkauf der letzten
Zwei Tage war das beste, was passieren konnte!
Seher

[keepitshort]

@antarra
die aktuellen Daten bei www.stockcharts.com ... $TNX
Du hast US-Staatsanleihen erwähnt
Du weisst auch dass die Japaner eine Menge US-Staatsanleihen halten.
Vergiss auch nicht wenn der US-Dollar fällt
dann haben die Japaner durch den fallenden US-Dollar
auch einen Wertverfall ihrer US-Staatsanleihen die sie
halten oder verkaufen.10-jährige US-Bonds-Yield 1974-2002
Anleihenhausse in den USA 14.11.2001
http://nachrichten.boerse.de/anzeige.php3?id=2280031e

10-jährige US-Bonds-Yield 1995-2002
Mittelfristig noch einmal sinkende Renditen 15.02.2002
Double-bottom Tief-1998 u. Tief-2001
Die Bond-Märkte sind vom Volumen so gross dass sie Allan Greenspan längerfristig nicht beeinflussen kann
An den Bond-Märkten agieren die grossen Fische und die richten sich auch nach der Charttechnik.
http://nachrichten.boerse.de/anzeige.php3?id=31a2ee6a

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

@ThaiGuru

Zunächst mal Danke für Deinen konstruktiven Beitrag. Grundsätzlich möchte auch ich festhalten an meinen Goldinvestments, keine Frage!

Meine Überlegungen zum POG möchte ich nicht als negativ verstanden wissen, ich denke nur nach, wie anderswo gedacht werden könnte. Mich interessiert eben, warum das so ist wie es gerade ist und wie - ausnahmsweise - ich, oder wir alle, zur Abwechslung unsere Vorteile daraus ziehen könnten.

Dazu bin ich mir sicher, wäre es ganz gut, Licht in die Sache zu bringen, um erfolgreich agieren oder reagieren zu können.

Mir ist schon klar, dass das Gold zum Teil in Papier umgesetzt wird. Deshalb ja auch meine Bedenken, dass der Ch. 11 gerade besonderen Schutz vor der wenigstens teilweisen Erfüllung der Leerverkäufe bietet - für die wenigen, die das wirklich (sich trauen) wollen. Aber die gibt es, den umsonst kommt Amerika nicht so ins Schwitzen! Ich bilde mir ein, die werden langsam uncool!

Aber grundsätzlich bleibt nach wie vor die Frage offen, wer sind die dämlichen Hunde, die dieses Papiergold tatsächlich kaufen. Die wissen ja dann offenbar noch viel weniger von dem Markt als unsereiner. Es sollten doch im wesentlichen professionelle Institute sein, die hier "spielen".

Unsere "Liebelingsbanken" sind hier sicher maßgeblich beteiligt und die einzige Erklärung die ich habe, dass sich doch immer wieder Käufer für dieses wertlose Papiergold finden ist: Diese beteiligten Banken schieben diese Kontrakte zwischen sich hin und her. Damit pflegen sie den Kurs in die gewünschte (?) Richtung. Doch keine so dämlichen Hunde! Alles nur Makulatur für den Zuschauer?

Die weiteren Mitspieler sind dann noch die gehedgten Minen, die ihre "Ernte" einbringen. Die wünschten sich naturgemäß einen hohen Goldpreis. Den kriegen sie nicht und haben auch wenig Einfluss darauf, weil die Aktionäre und Kreditgeber genau diese Banken sind. Damit haben sie sie an der Kandare! Ist es so?

Weiters gibt es dann noch die Zentralbanken, die hier eher die stillste Rolle spielen, denn diese - besser deren Gold - braucht man nur pro forma, um das ganze System erklärbar zu halten.

Wer ist noch dabei? Wer weiß es?

Ich könnte mir ja sogar vorstellen, dass die außeramerikanischen ZB`s zum Teil vor vollendete Tatsachen gestellt wurden, dass über deren Gold nun schon - wie auch immer - verfügt wurde. Natürlich für eine gute Sache aber sehr dringende Sache, versteht sich.

Deren Goldbestände lagern (vielleicht besser: lagerten) meines Wissens zumindest teilweise ja ohnehin schon physisch(!) in Fort Knox, also USA. Also eine Kleinigkeit für den grünspanigen Al, dort mal vorstellig zu werden und dem Wächter ein Angebot zu machen, welches er nicht ablehnen kann, damit er den Schlüssel rausrückt.

Das war wohl anfänglich nicht leicht einzusehen für die sicher verdutzten Herrn Zentralbankdirektoren. Deren blöde Gesichter hätte ich gerne gesehen.

Den Russen hat man für diverse nützliche und sehr notwendige Gegenleistungen halt Gold statt Dollars (wer braucht die schon in den USA) abgenommen und die Chinesen dürfen für Gold ihren billigen Krims-Krams weiter teuer in Ami-Produkte einbauen. Die beiden Länder sind damit vergleichsweise gut weggekommen, während man die anderen genötigt hatte. Russland ist, nebenbei bemerkt, noch eines meiner Investitionsschwerpunkte. Läuft momentan auch nicht so gut, wird aber wieder!

Einzig den Franzosen ist es gerüchte- und fregattenweise geglückt, ihre güldenen Vorräte wieder in die Grand Nation zurückzubringen. Weiß nicht, stimmt es?

Aber irgendwo muss ja auch das physische Gold sein, dass sie verzockt haben, bevor sie auf Papier umgestiegen sind. Wer sind den nun die glücklichen neuen Besitzer wenn es in Fort Knox nicht mehr ist. Von einem bisschen weiß ich ja sicher wo es ist, ...

Sollte JPM und Konsorten den Bach runter gehen, dann ist das sicher wegen Enron und dem Rest des Clubs, offiziell, nicht wegen des Goldes. Ich schätze, dieser Grund wäre nun äußerst willkommen, JPM platzen lassen zu können, den das Thema Gold dürfte in USA nicht so gerne thematisiert werden.

Übrigens: Die von mir zu Mittag abgegebene Schätzung des POG 305 – 307 $ nach der Erhöhung der Lease-Rates hat ja ganz gut gepasst, oder? 306 $ waren es dann! Aber irgendein Störenfried für Al’s Truppe hält nun dagegen? Wer kann das sein?

Was diese Lease-Rates angeht, so sind die heute z. T. im Vergleich zu früher eher stark gestiegen. Was kann das heißen? Wurde heute derart viel nachgefragt um so richtig dem POG eins überzubraten oder nur mehr so wenig und daher teurer angeboten? Oder beides, oder was?

Insgesamt ist es aber merkwürdig, dass ein Gut gemietet wird, um dessen Preis zu drücken, indem ich es dann verscheuere.

Im langfristigen Trend sind die Mieten für für das Gut Gold gesunken, dessen Preis aber gestiegen ist. Genau umgekehrt verhält es sich im kurzfristigen Trend. Sehr seltsam! Fällt jemand was vergleichbares ein? Im Normalfall läuft doch sowas parallel, speziell langfristig?

Bei diesem Blick in www.kitco.com fiel mir auch auf, dass es ab sofort auch einen „NY Access Market“ gibt. Gemeinsam mit der COMEX haben die nun bald rund um die Uhr offen. Bloß 2 Pinkelpausen sind vorgesehen. Ob die reichen für die Jungs und Girls bei diesen Aufregungen, die die durchmachen müssen?

[Insiderin007]

zu 1586, ThaiGuru
Danke für Deine lange Antwort. Ich glaube allerdings, in einem Punkt haben wir uns mißverstanden: Ich gebe Dir bei allem recht, und bitteschön, ich habe nicht vor, auch nur ein Gramm aus der Hand zu geben...
Ich bin allerdings der Ansicht, daß die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold immer noch nicht groß genug ist...
Soll heißen (auch wenn wir das Thema sicher schon mal hatten): Wenn außer den Japanern auch noch ein paar andere Staaten, genauer gesagt der normale kleine und natürlich auch der größere Anleger endlich wieder damit anfangen würde, sich Münzen und Barren ins heimische Depot zu legen, so wie es früher ganz normal war (!), dann würde sich alles noch sehr beschleunigen... Gold würde dann nämlich wirklich schnurgerade nach oben marschieren...

Wie gesagt: Ich meine lediglich, daß Gold, gerade in physischer Form , immer noch nicht auch nur von einem Bruchteil der Anleger entdeckt worden ist...
Wer hat den heutzutage noch Gold oder wer kauft wirklich Gold ein ? Wer geht denn an den Schalter und kauft Gold ? Frag mal bei den Bankern nach... zu Ostern und Weihnachten vielleicht...

Insiderin007

[Eurocop2000]

Ich denke, daß schlimmste Szenario, daß nämlich alles crasht, die Großfirmen reihenweise pleite gehen, auch Staatsanleihen aus Industrieländern nicht mehr bedient werden, der Goldpreis als letzter Hort der Stabilität sich vervielfacht, wird nicht eintreten.
Die Notenbanken werden den Goldkurs weiter deckeln und das können sie bei ihren immensen Vorräten auch. Meines Wissens lag die Goldproduktion in den letzten Jahren ca. 20 % niedriger als der Jahresverbrauch. Die Notenbankvorräte reichen noch viele Jahre, um die Differenz auszufüllen.
Diese Politik der Notenbänker ist auch in unserem Interesse, denn ein plötzlicher Goldpreisanstieg würde die derzeitige Panik an den Finanzmärkten verstärken und letztlich - wie Souvergnein an andere Stelle aufzeigte-
Finanz-, Staats- und Rechtstrukturen zerstören.
Argentinien läßt grüßen?! Goldbesitz wird dann nicht viel nützen.
Ich denke, es wird anders kommen:
Den Notenbänkern und den ihnen verbundenen Kreisen wird es durch Eingriffe am Finanzmarkt gelingen, den totalen Zusammenbruch zu vermeiden. Die Folgen werden extreme Ausweitung der Geldmenge und steigendes Inflationspotential
sein. Vielleicht 20 -40 % unter den heutigen Kursen werden die Börsen einen Boden bilden. Der Fehler der Notenbänker in der ersten Weltwirtschaftskrise, zu lange einen restiktiven geldpolitischen Kurs zu verfolgen, wird nicht wiederholt werden. Auch die Europäer werden in den nächsten Monaten die Zinsen senken.
Wenn dann eine Stabilisierung auf niedrigerem Niveau eingetreten ist, werden steigende Inflationsraten die Anleger wieder zurück in substanzstarke Aktien drängen aber auch Gold wird als Inflationsversicherung stärker ins Bewußtsein rücken.
Den dann erfolgenden allmählichen aber dauerhaften
Goldpreisanstieg werden die Notenbanken dulden. Sie sind nicht gegen uns. Sie wollen nur kein Chaos!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://sci.newsfactor.com/perl/story/18724.html

New Material Mines Gold Nanoparticles

By Jay Lyman
NewsFactor Network
July 24, 2002

While the current technology to produce computer chips is expected to reach its limitations this decade, newer technologies, such as quantum computing, rely on a phenomenon known as "single-electron tunneling."

Researchers at North Carolina State University (NCSU) and the U.S. Department of Energy`s Brookhaven National Laboratory are using gold nanoparticles in an innovative way that may have applications for both quantum computing and DNA screening.

Through aligning the tiny particles in decreasing number along the distance of a silica substrate, the researchers say they have developed a material is the first in a series that may have applications in those fields.

"We have built a structure that itself can be used as a building block to generate new devices," NCSU chemical engineering professor Jan Genzer told NewsFactor.

The researchers created and tested the new material, made with a gradient of gold nanoparticles, on a silicon surface using a molecular template.

The work, which could impact electronics, chemistry and life sciences, provides the first evidence that nanoparticles -- which are one thousand times smaller than the diameter of a human hair -- can form a gradient of decreasing concentration along a surface.

Quantum Control

Genzer said the current technology to produce computer chips is expected to reach its limitations this decade, but newer technologies, such as quantum computing, rely on a phenomenon known as single-electron tunneling.

"Experiments have shown that in order to build single-electron capacitors and transistors, one needs to have careful control over interparticle spacing," he said.

"Our work, though not directly applicable for building single-electron devices, shows a route to control interparticle spacing," Genzer said. However, adding further work is needed to gain more and finer control over particle separation.

Combination Plate

Researchers said the main advantage of the gradient material is that it allows large numbers of nanostructures to be combined on a single substrate and used for high-throughput processing.

"A typical example would be to optimize performance of a sensor utilizing nanoparticles, or use clusters of nanoparticles to improve catalyst performance," Genzer said.

Super Sensor

The material could also be used as a filter to select particles of various sizes, or as a sensor to detect species that have specific affinities for nanoparticles, according to researchers.

Genzer said the sensing ability could be applied in photonics, "based on the fact that optical properties, mainly scattering and absorption of light by a particle, ... not only depend on their size, but also on interparticle spacing."

Gold is Good

Genzer said the decision to use gold, which along with silicon oxide is important for electronic and optical materials applications, was mainly made because of gold`s conductivity, microscopic imaging quality and biocompatibility for use with attached DNA molecules. In addition, gold has well-defined optical properties in the electromagnetic spectrum.

The properties of gold nanoparticles and gold-silicon systems are well studied and documented, Genzer said. The research findings are described in the July 23rd cover story of the American Chemical Society journal Langmuir.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225…

Where is gold headed

By: Byron Kennedy


Posted: 2002/07/24 Wed 17:01 ZE2 | © Miningweb 1997-2002


JOHANNESBURG - Usually chartists have an answer for everything, but gold`s sudden decline yesterday has confounded some of the country`s leading technical analysts. Standard Bank`s Kobus Kotze described bullion`s $8 an ounce slide in a matter of hours as "totally out of trend" while Gregor Krall, his counterpart at NIB Securities, reckons there`s more downside on route after gold effectively failed its safe haven stature.
With global markets continuing to take a bath, market watchers had expected gold to benefit as a consequence. However, the metal has failed to follow the script and briefly slipped below $308 when US markets opened for trade today but has subsequently recovered to the $311 level.

According to both Krall and Kotze the $310 an ounce barrier remains an important support level. Krall says gold could drop below $300 if it fails to hold $310 while Kotze`s first downside target is $304. In the short-term, says Kotze, $324 ranks as a key resistance level but that it would be "good news for gold" if it could hold above $310 over the next day or so." Longer-term gold attracts strong support between $300 and $305 in Kotze`s estimation.

While Kotze was somewhat cagey in his assessment, Krall reckons that he`s no longer a gold bull - that after he told Classic Business listeners earlier in the year that gold was poised to crack $325 when the metal was trading south of $300.

"I`d be a buyer of gold below $295," says Krall, "but my bias is now toward the downside." He states that it would take a move beyond $325 before one could become bullish again. He also reckons that platinum could also suffer significant pain and says it`s a "matter of time before platinum breaks down."

With platinum last trading at $518 an ounce, it is perilously close to the $515 level that Krall identifies as a key level for the white metal to hold. "If it falls through $515 it could drop as much as $40," says Krall.

[ThaiGuru]

@SchlimmerSilberfinger

Dein Posting hat mir sehr gut gefallen, und ich habe Deine Ansicht zum Goldgeschehen jetzt auch besser verstanden, als im vorletzten Beitrag von Dir.

Das mit dem hin und her schieben sehe ich auch als eine wahrscheinliche Tatsache an. Mit einem solchen Vorgehen wären auch Fragen wie: Wer sind den diese naiven Abnehmer dieser andauernden Papier-Goldverkäufe, beantwortet.

Doch sicher gibt es auch viele andere "echte" Abnehmer dieser zur Zeit gerade wieder billiger werdenden Papier-Gold Kontrakte. Darunter sind vermutlich neben Hedge Funds, auch Minen Gesellschaften.

1700 Tonnen Gold der Bundes Bank lagert in den USA, das ist absolut richtig, jedoch nicht in Fort Knox, sondern in den Tresoren der US Treasury in West Point. Zuständig bei der Treasury ist zur Zeit noch, Secretary O`Neill, dem von der GATTA vorgeworfen wird bei der Goldpreis Manipulation seine Finger mit im Spiel zu haben.

Am 14. Januar 2002 habe ich in meinem Thread: "Bundesbank Goldvorräte verschwunden?" darüber mehre Postings gemacht.
Thread: Kein Titel für Thread 05337442271929202719294166992939542136993870111

Die Franzosen haben es unter Charlles De Gaule, wirklich fertig gebracht ihre in den USA gelagerten Goldvorräte, physisch zurück zu holen. Der hatte wohl schon damals den Amerikanern nicht richtig getraut?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Insiderin007

Da gebe ich Dir auch Recht, die grosse Masse ist überhaupt noch nicht im Gold. Selbstverständlich würde eine grössere Nachfrage nach echtem anfassbaren Gold, das Goldcabal noch mehr in Bedrängnis bringen, und deren Fall beschleunigen.

Genau so wie Du selbst, kann ich den Kauf von physischem Gold nur empfehlen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[aldibroker]

@all,

dieser Aspekt wird uns in jedem Fall jetzt auch helfen:

Steigt der DOW, darf wie wir heute gesehen haben auch Gold und damit die Minen besonders steigen. Setzt eine technische Erholung ein, wird man Gold auch wieder laufen lassen, nachdem man so wunderbar tief eindecken konnte.

Setzt sich mittel- und langfristig wieder der Downtrend fort, wird erst interveniert, wenn das krisenhafte Züge trägt, so dass Goldbugs wieder eine Lektion benötigen. Die Kraft wird dazu vorerst noch reichen.

Aber selbst wenn diese Lektion nochmals erteilt wird, bleibt es bei den logischen Schlüssen, dass Papiergold egal zu welchen Preisen geliehen oder leerverkauft nicht die Preishoheit behalten kann.

Gruss Aldi

[ginagina]

Mögliche Bezugsquelle für Gold.

http://www.wc-heraeus.com
Dann
- Produkte Dienstleistungen
- Schmuckhalbzeuge
- Lot
- Goldbarren
(durch framesets geht der direkte Link nicht)

[ThaiGuru]

“Entertaining” Day On Wall Street

Well the equities markets turned around and the DOW rocketed nearly 500 points. Pedestrians are safe for one more day. There really wasn’t any news that should have triggered the move today except the expectation that the Corporate Reform Bill would be passed. Earnings are still pathetic and corporate debt has risen to unsustainable record levels.

Today’s market action pushed through several critical levels for many stocks and this triggered short covering across the board creating a “feeding frenzy” mentality. Curiously this comes the day after an emergency meeting between Treasury Secretary Paul O/Neill and several investment bankers, and a rumored emergency Federal Reserve meeting today.

There is speculation in some quarters that the Working Group on Financial Markets had orchestrated today’s market rally. These levels are really unsustainable without any real positive market news. In all, it was quite an “entertaining” and “interesting” day. Gold has pulled off the support level of $310 an ounce and that gave support to gold mining shares. Considering all the volatility and the traditionally slow season for Gold, the metal has performed remarkably well. This could mean much better times ahead for Gold.

- Black Blade

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news&news_i…

Cambior reduces gold hedging position


Wednesday July 24, 3:57 PM EDT

(Figures in U.S. dollars unless noted)

MONTREAL, July 24 (Reuters) - Cambior Inc. (CBJ), a mid-tier gold miner, said on Wednesday it reduced its hedge position by 17 percent this month as it tries to free itself from the risky practice that almost ruined the company three years ago.

Cambior said in a release that it converted 434,000 ounces of variable volume forward commitments, at $339 per ounce, into 227,000 ounces of fixed forward positions at an average price of $331 per ounce. The reduction was done without any cash outlay by the company.

So far this year, it has reduced its hedge position by 26 percent.

The company said the elimination of the variable volume forwards will reduce the quarterly fluctuation of the mark-to-market value of the non-hedge derivative instruments which has harmed its results over the past year.

Cambior was forced to renegotiate its debt and jettison non-gold assets after a surging gold price in late 1999 squeezed its hedging program. During that period the company`s stock collapsed from around C$20.00 to less than 37 cents.

The stock was down 8 Canadian cents at C$1.32 in Toronto on Wednesday.

($1=$1.57 Canadian)


©2002 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

July 24 - Gold $311.20 down $1.10 - Silver $4.85 down 1 cent

Another dramatic day! / Australia’s Laurie McGuirk

Foreign stock markets were all trashed. U.S. stock futures were annihilated before the New York open. Gold was therefore pummeled by The Gold Cartel - exactly the opposite of what would occur if the gold price were not manipulated.

Soon after the opening, The Working Group on Financial Markets went to work buying the Dow Futures, which caused arbs to buy Morgan and Citi stock, as part of the Dow basket of stocks. The Dow was clearly the mover to the upside early on. Why? The emergency Fed meetings and Secretary O’Neill meetings had to revolve around talk of Morgan going under if their stock price fell much below $20. The PPT gathered the troops to buy, buy, buy at all costs. Morgan quickly fell to $18+ and then soared higher like a rocket. Citi too.

The Dow was firm about an hour after the opening and led a remarkable, general stock market advance, which rebounded from extremely oversold territory.

The dollar was propped up yesterday by the same market rigging group. But, today it gave back two thirds of those gains, closing at 105.87, down 1.21. Gold has dropped $12 in two days with the dollar only moving modestly higher on a net basis.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.94, PM $4.21, with world gold at $313.77 and $312. The latter is about 60 cents below legal import level, and is the strongest in many weeks. Still, rather a tepid response to a much lower price. The Indian trade is said to be gloatingly predicting lower prices still.

Generally, however, physical demand is agreed to have picked up promptly. Standard Bank London speaks of “excellent buying from the physical sector” yesterday. Dow Jones refers to “steady physical buying” today, and Reuters Asian gold report quotes a trader saying: “Physical gold traders were seen…buying back at the market’s lower levels”

Tocom responded in a particularly interesting way. Volume was very high – equal to 46, 082 Comex lots, 78% more than yesterday, in conditions described to Reuters as “good two-way trading”, and although yen prices were sharply down, $ prices edged up. Furthermore open interest rose very slightly (the equivalent of 458 Comex lots), suggesting that elements of the public may be using price weakness to add to longs even as others are being stop lossed out. By contrast, Comex’s huge 87 072 contract volume yesterday produced an open interest drop of 6604 lots, and this doubtless understates the magnitude of long liquidation as the considerable short selling will have masked some long capitulation (“ ..the recent drive lower was heavily made up of technically-triggered speculative selling…” – Dow Jones.

With volume very high again today – estimated at 78,000, a third of which was packed into the first half hours as an attempt was made to break to a new low- the Comex technicals must have now improved substantially. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold dropped an unusually large 5 points after yesterday to a comparatively undemanding 68%. Gold also closed above the 100 day moving average, impressing certain technicians. With physical activity returned after a prolonged slow period, the stage might be thought for recovery.

However, damage to confidence was considerable, Richard Russell’s reversion to his former “Gold weakness = deflation” mantra being one example. “The last move really takes the wind out of the sails and we cannot be bullish. It can’t attract the flow of funds it needs”- (Mitsui Sydney. More ominously, there seems every reason to believe the resolute Official Sector seller around $324 Standard London disclosed, last Wednesday is still there and was at the root of this week’s rout. And the frequency with which Gold share action is now being cited as a reason for gold price action creates the apprehension that this sector has finally got the attention of bullion’s enemies, private sector or official.

Nevertheless, a world in which a key bank like Morgan Chase can halve in value in a few days has possibilities. In the words today of the astute Bridgewater Daily Observations http://www.bwater.com/ , “…the collapse of bank stocks on Tuesday…raises the specter of systemic problems. There is little doubt the Fed is monitoring this situation closely”. So should the friends of gold.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan`s imports of gold surged 282.1% in volume terms in June from the same month a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday.

Many Japanese have looked to gold in recent months as a safer investment than the country`s shaky banking system.

The total value of Japan`s gold imports rose 369.7%, to Y5.85 billion, as the price of gold climbed more than 22% in the intervening year.

[ThaiGuru]

Asian Markets Start With a Bang - End With a Wimper

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

I really feel let down. I had high hopes that I would be "entertained" as the Asian markets run headlong sheep-like into that giddy irrational exuberance with wild trading action. There were flashes of trading spikes here and there, but they really let me down. I had hoped that they would charge on to new heights and suck in more greedy unsuspecting fools for a good fleecing.

But alas, the sheep were few in number. Could it be that they tire of the game and are tapped out? Maybe they are beginning to catch on that they are being played for fools. That is the investment bankers run the prices up and create a mania, then as the sheep buy in near the top - whammo!!!

Pull the chair out from under them and pull them onto the kill floor and reap the profits. Then start all over again for another good shearing. Oh well, European markets start up soon and maybe the european lemmings will provide me with some "entertainment". There are alway plenty of foolish sheep for shearing.

Maybe I should lay off the mutton. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cspan.org/journal/

Wednesday, July 24, 2002

Bill Murphy, Gold Anti-Trust Committee, Chairman Watch
Washington, DC

Murphy’s discusses his belief that there is an international conspiracy to suppress the price of gold by a number of central and commercial banks.
Length: 30 min.

Das Fernseh Interview mit GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, in einem der grossen Kabel Fernseh Netze der USA von gestern.

ThaiGuru

[jerema]

@thaiguru
Kannst Du mir nochmal erläutern, warum JPM den Goldkurs unten halten möchte.
Wäre Dir dankbar, wenn Du das nochmal kurz umreißen könntest.

[ThaiGuru]

@jerema

JPM besitzt 41 Milliarden US Dollar Gold Derivative per 31. December 2001. Das waren ca 65% aller weltweiten Gold Derivativ Positionen.

Weil JPM massiv Gold Derivativ Positionen inne hat, die die Existenz von JPM gefärden, falls die Goldpreise entgegen ihren ürsprünglichen Annahmen weiter steigen statt fallen.

"JPM certainly does have large outstandings in gold derivatives. According to figures from OCC JPM had over US$ 41 billion of gold derivatives as at December 31, 2001. This represented almost 65% of all the gold derivatives held by US banks. It also represents the equivalent of 149 million ounces of gold assuming the closing price of gold on December 31, 2001 at US$ 279."

Ganzer Bericht: JPM "The $24 Trillion Derivatives Monster"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/chapmand061302pv.htm…

Falls Du weitere ausführliche Informationen zu JPM und Gold suchst, gehe bitte auf diese Seite:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/research.html

und gib dort den Suchbegriff "JPM" "Derivative", oder "Gold" ein!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[jerema]

@thaiguru

Vielen Dank.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=25845

Gold Mine Is Becoming Not So Deep

25.07.2002 08:57

Newcrest Mining led the casualty list, crashing 86 to be left licking its wounds at $5.65 -- 33 per cent below a record high of $8.41 set just seven weeks ago. Its major counterparts were also battered, takeover target AurionGold losing nearly 10 per cent to $3.14 and Lihir Gold shedding 6 per cent to $1.22. Not even the smaller end of the industry was spared. Ron Manners` West Australian producer, Croesus Mining, fell 4 to 61, while Victorian prospector Perseverance lost 2.5 to 15.5.

The falls were sparked by bullion`s biggest one-day fall in nearly three years as gold futures tumbled nearly $US11 to below $US313 an ounce in New York on Tuesday night.
The metal was still circling $US313 in early European trading last night, despite further heavy losses in regional stocks which have often persuaded investors to seek out gold for its safe haven status.

On this score there are several thoughts. One one of them has central banks holding down the price of gold to protect the derivative positions of vulnerable US banks.
Analysts, however, were united in blaming a rally in the US dollar for the deep fall, underlining the hardening nexus between bullion and the dollar.

The greenback recorded its biggest gain against the euro in 18 months and its biggest against the yen in four months, prompting an unravelling of arbitrage positions, according to analysts.

A stronger US dollar increases the cost of gold in other currencies, and traders fear it will cut demand for bullion from jewellers. Despite the slide, bullion remains well up on last year`s price levels, although last month`s high of $US330 is fast receding.

Analysts say its short-term fate will be determined by the dollar, but are confident it can hold within the $US311 to $US325 range. Paterson Ord Minnett associate director Paul Carter said the weaker US economy could help prices rebound.


Neftegaz.ru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4431024&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2002-07-25 16:30 GMT: Metals - Gold sheds some gains in volatile late London trade


LONDON (AFX) - Gold shed some gains in volatile late London trade as investment houses continue to liquidate positions, dealers said.

"All the commodities are heading lower as there remains lingering fund selling against a background of high volatility in stock markets," said Robin Bhar, analyst at Standard Bank.

"There is a belief that funds are selling gold in order to pay for margin calls of the losses in the stock markets," he added.

"There is still quandary amongst investors unable to see clearly where the global economy and stock markets are heading," he said.

Stock markets appear to be shrugging off today`s weakness in US economic data, in the shape of durable goods and existing home sales, said Bhar.

However economic indicators will be watched carefully to see whether the slide in stock market is impacting on the real economy, he said. "The market has fallen every day and investors are waiting for signals that weakness in stocks is impacting on consumer spending."

At 4.05 pm, gold traded 70 cents down at 310.05 usd per ounce.

Most basic metals registered losses, tracking moves on the DJIA ,which opened down 26.38 pts at 8,164.01 and touched a low of 8,092.21 before rebounding.

Observers highlighted the very strong correlation between the DJIA and copper prices.

Investors have taken the bearish view that whatever is happening on stocks will translate into a fall in demand, said Bhar. "Traders on London Metal Exchange are looking at the DJIA before deciding whether to buy or sell."

At 4.05 pm, copper was unchanged at 1525 usd per tonne, aluminium was up 9 usd at 1322 usd per tonne, nickel 30 usd down at 6670 usd per tonne, and zinc down 2 usd at 778 usd per tonne.

[e-mail]

ap/slm/

[manfred1_I]

Droht Morgen der sogenannte "Schwarze Freitag" ???

[ThaiGuru]

@Manfred1

Zur Zeit ist alles möglich!

[manfred1_I]

An ThaiGuru

Hast du schon davon gehört, dass verschiedene Goldunzen-
stücke knapp sein sollen.
Das austr. und engl. oz. Stück.????

[Gringo1]

Hat jemand eine Ahnung ob Gates, Buffet und Soros noch immer long in Silber ( & Gold ?) sind ?

Wenn ja - die sollten es ja wissen ....

Gringo

[ThaiGuru]

@manfred1

Bis jetzt habe ich davon noch nichts gehört, oder gelesen, doch kann ich mir gut vorstellen, dass solche Engpässe auftreten könnten, falls die starke Nachfrage nach Goldmünzen weiter zunehmen wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Lies bitte mein nächstes Posting, es dürfte Dir Freude bereiten.

[ThaiGuru]

Da es zur Zeit im WGold Board nur so von pessimistischen Meldungen zu Gold und Silber strotzt. Einige User bereits den Glauben an Gold und Silber verloren haben, und desilusioniert, oder entnervt aufgeben, nur weil die Gold und Silberpreise, vorübergehend nachgegeben haben, und es bei einem ganz obrigkeitshörigen goldkritischen User, der seit er im Goldboard rumgeistert, aus unerklärlichen Gründen, praktisch in jedem seiner Postings, manisch das Wort "Guru" verwendete, zum Verkauf seiner gesammten Minenaktien gekommen ist, möchte ich die echten! Goldbugs im Goldboard dazu beglückwünschen, dass Ihr Euch genauso wie ich selbst, nicht ins Boxhorn jagen lassen habt, und noch immer mit Herz, Gold und Silber dabei seit.

Wenn man alles im Voraus gewusst hätte, wenn man über die geplanten Aktivitäten des PPT Teams, und der Gold Cabal Banken informiert gewesen wäre, hätten wir uns ganz sicher anders verhalten können. Wir hätten auf dem Höchst verkauft, und wären gestern und heute vielleicht wieder eingestiegen. Einigen ganz wenigen Risiko orientierten Anlegern ist das, vielleicht sogar gelungen.

Doch dieses Privileg hatten nur ganz wenige, die meisten Goldbugs gehörten leider nicht dazu.

Also sind wir drin geblieben in Gold und Goldaktien, und müssen mit einem weinenden Auge zuschauen wie die Goldaktien vorübergehend nachgeben.

In meinem perönlichen Minen Aktien Portefeuille, gibt es gerade mal eine Goldmine die nicht nachgab. Einige meiner Minen haben 40% vom Höchst abgegeben, andere "nur" 20% verloren, einige wenige Minen zeigten sich aber auch sehr robust und sind nur wenig gefallen.

Gold und Silber Minen können aber auch sehr schnell wieder stark steigen, wenn der Trend und die Richtung beim Gold und Silberpreis wieder stimmt. Und ich bin davon überzeugt, dass die Goldbugs nicht sehr lange warten müssen, bis wir die Gold und Silberpreise wieder nach oben ausbrechen sehen werden. Von den Goldcharts, solltet Ihr Euch m. E. auch nicht zu stark beeinflussen lassen, da diese eben nicht die Fundamentaldaten beim Gold und Silberpreisgeschehen wiedergeben, sondern meiner Ansicht nach, vom Goldcabal bewusst manipuliert werden.

Es ist meine volle Ueberzeugung, dass wenn die Anleger in diesem wirtschaftlichen Börsen Chaos, das wir gerade alle täglich erleben, den Glauben an Gold und Silber verlieren würden, es für absolut alle Anlageformen, das Ende bedeuten würde.

Gestern hatte der DOW mit 488 Punkten den höchsten Anstieg seit über 5 Jahren. Wenn man vom gestrigen DOW Tief, bis zum Hoch rechnet, dürfte es eine der grössten, wenn nicht sogar die grösste Aufwärtsbewegungen gewesen sein, die der DOW in seiner Geschichte je vorweisen konnte, und das bei einem extrem schlechten Umfeld. Und Gold und Silber sind stark gefallen. Was glaubt ihr warum dies alles möglich war?

Der Krug geht zum Brunnen bis er bricht!

Wir werden uns bald wieder freuen können.


Gruss

ThasGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Die gute Nachricht des Tages zum Silber!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.cdapress.com/story.asp?str=7050

A Silver Lining

Bush signs bill to create new market for silver

By staff and
The Associated Press



COEUR d`ALENE -- President Bush signed legislation on Tuesday to create a new market for domestic silver in government-minted coins in what could be a boon to North Idaho silver producers.

The law, whose sponsors included Idaho Sens. Larry Craig and Mike Crapo and Rep. Butch Otter, enables the federal government to buy silver on the open market for the first time in four decades.

It permits continued production of the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins and the preservation of dozens of jobs in Coeur d`Alene.

"This is about jobs. It`s as simple as that," Otter said Tuesday.

Randal Hardy, president of Sunshine Minting at 750 W. Canfield Ave., said he`s been working closely with Craig and Crapo to get the bill signed into law.
Of Sunshine`s 80-90 person labor force, more than half work on production of the Silver Eagle. That production was soon to be halted due to a depleted silver stockpile at the U.S. Mint.

"The U.S. Mint is a big contract for us," Hardy said. "They`ve cut back a little bit lately, partly due to uncertainty about whether this bill was going to pass or not.
"Realistically, if this bill hadn`t passed and hadn`t been signed, that program would have ended and it probably would have meant about 50 or 60 jobs out here, to us," he said.

Hecla spokeswoman Vicki VeltKamp said the bill should boost the mining industry, too.

"I think more than anything, it is a positive indication to people that silver is in demand and is going to come even more in demand," she said.

The mines of the Silver Valley, where about 350 are employed, produce more than $70 million of silver per year. As well, the industry employs about 3,000 people statewide and contributes more than $900 million to Idaho`s economy.
The price of silver Tuesday was $4.88 per ounce, down from $5.07 where it closed Friday, but Veltkamp expects the price to rise with the passage of the silver bill.

"It`s just one more indication that those above ground stocks of silver are getting lower and lower and at some point the laws of supply and demand are really going to kick in there and hit the price of silver," she said.

The initiative was prompted by news that the government`s 730 million-ounce strategic stockpile of silver -- accumulated in the years immediately following World War II -- will be depleted this summer.

"They shipped the last of it to us a month ago or so," Hardy said.

Since 1986, about 10 million troy ounces a year have been taken from the stockpile, stamped into rounds by Sunshine Minting Co. in Coeur d`Alene and then struck by the U.S. Mint into 1-ounce investment coins.
The mint is expected to buy up to 9 million ounces of silver each year to continue production.
"We`re hoping it goes on pretty much indefinitely," Hardy said.

Crapo and Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada introduced the bill in the Senate on June 2. The Senate passed it on June 24. Otter introduced an identical bill in the House June 20, and House approval came on June 28.

"Seeing that this bill became law as fast as it has demonstrates the importance of the Silver Eagle Bullion Coin Program to the U.S. Treasury, the U.S. Mint, and to Idaho`s silver industry," Crapo said.

Otter said the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin program is the largest and most popular in the United States.

Sales of the coins generated more than $264 million for national debt reduction from 1995 through 2001.
"Thanks in part to the skill of Idaho workers, I expect to see that record of achievement continue," Otter said.


P.O. Box 7000 / 2nd & Lakeside / Coeur d`Alene, Idaho 83814 / 208-664-8176

[niemandweiss]

Grüss Dich Thaiguru,

Dein Beitrag ist Balsam, danke für Deine Gedanken. Morgen wird Germanisti vom stock-channel-net in seinem Tagesbeitrag intensiv auf Gold eingehen, auch er ist jetzt nach dem Abfall sehr positiv gestimmt.

Ich war zwei Tage in Hamburg. Als ich heute wiederkam traute ich meinen Augen nicht. Meinen Depotstand hab ich gar nicht erst aufgerufen, sonst würde ich sicherlich die Panik bekommen. Jetzt noch zu verkaufen, wäre Wahnsinn.

niemandweiss

[ThaiGuru]

NY Post


DON`T BANK ON PROBLEMS
GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON

By JOHN CRUDELE


July 25, 2002 --

THE markets sighed with relief yesterday after J.P. Morgan Chase tried to sell investors and employees on the idea that its involvement with Enron wouldn`t cause major problems.

I`m not buying it - at least not yet.

There are just too many things - some not related to Enron -that could still go wrong with J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and many other major banks. And until the whole mess is straightened out - which could happen in our lifetime - financial stocks and the market as a whole are just too risky.

Here are some of the concerns.

* Congress is investigating whether J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup were instrumental in setting up questionable


"pre-pay" trades for Enron. This allowed the energy company to receive payments up front in exchange for delivering commodities at a later date. In essence, critics say, the deals hid loans and expenses.

The big question: For how many other companies did J.P. Morgan and Citigroup do this?

J.P. Morgan says the deals are normal and legal, which leads me to believe there will be many more revelations.

* J.P. Morgan still has not adequately explained the possible impact all of this will have on its massive $29 trillion in derivative holdings. The company has repeatedly pooh-poohed the size of this portfolio, but the gross number still represents more money than the whole U.S. economy in a given year.

And this business is about as easy to understand as Yogi Berra on a bad day. Is the derivative business in trouble if too many trading partners - like Enron - can`tfinish their transactions?

* Another issue likely to hound the banks is credit quality. With the economy showing only slight improvement there are signs that consumers` finances are being strained.

When you start reading stories about people taking out home equity loans to pay their everyday bills you have to figure that banks will soon be holding a bushel of< bad loans.

* PNC Financial was recently slapped by bank regulators for moving bad loans off its books.

Was it the only bank that thought of doing this? My banking sources figure the folks in Washington must have a number of banks teed up on this sort of fancy accounting.

* There`s a significant unanswered criminal question regarding Citigroup. The Washington Post reported back in January that Robert Rubin, former Clinton Treasury secretary and now chairman of Citigroup`s executive committee, telephoned a top official of the current administration wanting to know whether the Bush team could intervene on behalf of Enron.

Now that Citigroup is being eyed as a prime player in what Enron might have done wrong, does Rubin`s contact get him and his company into an even deeper legal fix?

Bank stocks overall have been down as much as 23 percent in just the last two weeks. Some people might think that`s enough to create value. Indeed, Citigroup and Banc One Corp. recently announced buybacks of their own shares, which they obviously think are cheap.

But from where I`m sitting I think banks could still get a lot cheaper.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020725/200207251101000723_1.html

Thursday July 25, 11:01 am Eastern Time

Dow Jones Business News

S Africa Harmony: Gold Ore Reserves Up 49% On Year


JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South Africa `s Harmony Gold Mining Co . Ltd. announced a 49% increase in its ore reserves for the financial year ended June 2002 .

Harmony said it had resources in excess of 295 million troy ounces, with 49 million oz being in the reserve category. That is up from around 224 million oz in 2001, of which 33 million oz were in ore reserves category, the company said.

Harmony, which releases its quarterly results for the period ended June 30 on Aug. 5 , said its ore reserves were calculated at a gold price of 95,000 rand ($ 1=ZAR10.188) a kilogram.

"Harmony has always been very conservative in its valuation of its ore reserves," said Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony`s chief executive. "One of the reasons being is the company`s policy of not hedging production and thereby allowing our shareholders exposure to increases in the gold price, if and when it occurs."[/]

Harmony attributed the increase in its ore reserves to a higher gold price and an overall improvement in ore reserve quality through its 50% interest in the Free Gold assets in South Africa `s Free State Province, as well as Australia `s Hill 50.

"We will continue to apply this conservative approach at our mining operation since Harmony, unlike its hedged competitors, cannot rely on a fixed gold price, " said Swanepoel. "Harmony will remain focussed on its working costs since this is one aspect the company can actually control."

Harmony, the country`s third-biggest gold producer, has an annual output of around 3.2 million oz of gold.

Around 1430 GMT on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa , Harmony was trading up ZAR6, or 4.9%, at ZAR129.

[ThaiGuru]

July 25 - Gold $309.50 down $1.70 - Silver $4.85 unchanged

Blatant DOW and GOLD Rigging Continues! / J.P. Morgan Chase is Tottering!

What can you say? The depth of the gold rigging by the bullion banks and complete fraud is as great as GATA has articulated for 43 months. The good news is that the heat on the bullion banks regarding their nefarious doings is intensifying. It is only a matter of time before their crooked gold dealings are exposed to the world. When that happens, the price of gold will soar.

The following Bloomberg rocked the stock market this afternoon:

Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Probed by SEC Over Enron, Person Says
By William Roberts and Robert Schmidt

Washington, July 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. helped Enron Corp. hide debt, according to a person familiar with the probe.

The SEC, which regulates U.S. securities markets, is pursuing evidence that shows the two largest U.S. banks had a clear understanding of Enron`s intention to mislead investors and played a necessary role in the alleged fraud, the person said.

Enron disguised loans as financing for commodity trades to obtain more than $4.8 billion from Citigroup and $3.7 billion from J.P. Morgan over six years, according to a report by the Senate`s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The funds showed up on Enron`s statements as cash flow rather than debt, the report said.

``The SEC has been looking at Enron`s dealings with Wall Street for several months now,`` said Citigroup spokesman Daniel Noonan. ``For our part, we continue to cooperate with this inquiry.`` He declined to comment further.

SEC spokesman John Heine declined to comment, as did J.P. Morgan spokesman Adam Castellani.

Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat and chairman of the investigations subcommittee, said Citigroup and J.P. Morgan helped Enron disguise loans and skirt legal and accounting requirements. They ``knew what Enron was doing, assisted in the deceptions and made money from their actions,`` Levin said at a Senate hearing Tuesday.

Weill`s Letter

Executives from Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase told senators that they had done nothing wrong.

Citigroup Chairman Sanford Weill told employees in a letter released to reporters today that he regrets the bank`s business with Enron has led to criticism and depressed the share price. He said the world`s largest financial services company met all legal and accounting requirements in its dealings with the bankrupt energy trader.

The SEC views the Citigroup and J.P. Morgan deals with Enron as loans structured to look like sales, the person familiar with the probe said. SEC investigators are examining whether there was any ``price risk`` in trades Citigroup did with Enron through an offshore entity called ``Delta,`` and whether that offshore entity was independent or controlled by Enron, the person said.

The person said the SEC`s investigation began before the Senate report.

On Tape

In a hearing by the subcommittee Tuesday, the panel played tapes of J.P. Morgan Chase officers who are heard discussing with accountants how to make the offshore entities appear independent. Citigroup declined to provide audiotapes of the bank`s discussions about the transactions to the subcommittee.

SEC investigators are pursuing the audiotapes of these discussions between Citigroup`s bankers and traders, the person familiar with the matter said.

Deputy SEC Director of Enforcement Linda Thomsen, who is supervising the Enron investigation and who is involved in the probe of the banks, told a group of lawyers July 12 that she thought bringing criminal cases would be ``one of the best ways to get people`s attention.``

-END-

That last paragraph was the stunner in that story.

Meanwhile, the blatant gold price and Dow manipulation continues. For the third straight day, gold was taken down, while the DOW was propped up by the PPT. It cannot be more obvious what is going on. It is grotesque!

Gold barely moved during the Comex session. It was up in Asia last night and taken down in the U.S., which has been par of the course for the past 7 years.

The DOW (81.86, down 5) was relatively firm index all day long. The DOW collapsed after the Morgan/Citi SEC story broke, but the PPT brought it right back. The S&P was down 4.75. The NASDOG (1240, down 50) plummeted right from the get-go as the critical SOX index collapsed, closing 31 points lower. It is ONLY 11 points from closing in new low ground. It gave back almost all what it gained yesterday.

J.P. Morgan Chase is in deep trouble. It’s shares were hit again today, closing at $22.35, down 95 cents. The PPT is supporting the DOW in an effort to keep Morgan from collapsing, to keep it a viable bank.

This is not going to help Morgan:

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

On J.P. Morgan Chase from Jim Sinclair:

Dear Shawn:

You are absolutely correct that the launch of this gold bull market is going to be harder than ever before. Yet, it will develop and move above $354 in time to much higher prices, in my opinion. This is the third raid by Goldman and by Chase/Morgan at $322.

It is early in the long life to come in this gold bull market. The gold bulls do not truly believe it is a gold bull market as you do not truly believe it is a gold bull market. That is typical because all major bull market start up against a WALL of DISBELIEF falling back repeatedly.

The fundamental case for gold is building mightily day by day and will be in my opinion 100% behind gold by the end of the year. This reaction looks to me to be limited to middle August and $302-$305 on the downside.

I have said many times that all the fundamentals are not yet in for gold. The engine behind the rise in the gold price is the "Risk Control Programs" of the gold banks. That is a two edge sword.

As gold rises above $305 towards $330 the "Risk Control Programs" call for dealers to buy gold to maintain the risk factors to buy gold. As gold falls from under $330 towards $305 the "Risk Control Programs" call for the gold banks to SELL the gold they bought to maintain the character of their short transactions and the risk factors they are comfortable with. Those that ignore their "Risk Control Programs" are called bankrupt first. This is why the gold market has been a schizophrenic.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[macvin]

@niemandweiss #1617

germanasti der Spasti? Vergiss es... sonst hole ich mal seine Threads in diesem Forum hoch. Besser wäre es, Du würdest selbst danach suchen...und Dir dann Dein persönliches Urteil bilden

macvin

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty Premiums: AM $4.25, PM $3.62, with world gold at $311.50 and $310.10. Amongst the stronger levels of late, but still below legal import level. The Indian rupee hit a 5-month high this morning, which will ultimately help gold demand.

The combination of weaker US gold, a dramatic stock market recovery, and a strengthening yen finally unnerved Japanese Tocom operators: open interest fell the equivalent of 2,441 Comex lots on volume equal to 48,412 Comex contracts. This is still a calm performance compared to New York, which yesterday traded 73, 381 lots and saw open interest fall 7192 contracts to 164 041. (For the record Tocom open interest is the equivalent of 125,000 NY lots.) Volume today in NY is estimated at a substantial 44,000. Gold in yen is now back to early January levels and Tocom volumes are beginning to be compared with that period. If the Japanese public respond in their traditional price elastic way this could get interesting. First prize, however, remains a weakening yen: and the yen did subside a little from this morning’s early level.

“..gold’s sudden decline yesterday has confounded some of the..leading analysts” observes a South African market web site, quoting a Standard Bank technician saying that Tuesday’s slump was “totally out of trend”. “"I am somewhat perplexed by gold`s moves of late. Lots of possibilities but none of them sound enough to say, `This is what is going on,`" says Barry Cooper, precious metals analyst at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, who is in the irritating position of having just published a flagship positive report.

Others have definite, and simpler ideas, well discussed by Thom Calandra at CBS MarketWatch today.

JB

[Wavetrader]

Die Welt

Börsen-Baisse nimmt Gold den Glanz

Turbulenzen an den Märkten zwingen Fonds zu Notverkäufen. Goldpreis unter Druck

Von Michael Fabricius
Berlin - Der Gold-Hafen ist nicht mehr sicher. Die Turbulenzen an den Aktienmärkten schlagen mittlerweile auch an dem als krisenfest bekannten Goldmarkt hohe Wellen. Seit einigen Tagen beobachten Experten massive Verkäufe von Fonds, die den Gewinn von der Gold-Rallye aus dem ersten Halbjahr einstreichen und damit Verluste an anderer Stelle ausgleichen wollen. In London kostete die Feinunze Gold gestern Vormittag noch 310,25 Dollar, am Montag waren es noch 324 Dollar gewesen - ein Rückgang von 4,2 Prozent. Vom Jahreshöchststand bei 327,25 Dollar im Juni ist der Markt damit wieder weit entfernt.

"Von einem vernünftigen und begründeten Abschwung am Aktienmarkt hat Gold eigentlich immer profitiert", sagt Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, Rohstoff-Experte der Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Doch in der jetzigen Situation könne davon keine Rede mehr sein. Viele Fonds hätten angesichts der panikartigen Aktien-Verkäufe hohe Verluste eingefahren. Für ein Umsatteln auf Rohstoff-Investments fehle daher jetzt schlicht das Geld. "Dafür bringen die Gold-Verkäufe kurzfristig Liquidität", so Wrzesniok-Roßbach.

Doch auch von anderen Seiten gerät Gold in Bedrängnis. So hat der wiedererstarkte Dollar den Feinunzen-Preis, der sich wie eine andere Währung zum Greenback verhält, nach unten gedrückt. Axel Breil, Gold-Experte der Bankgesellschaft Berlin, sieht in der Dollar-Erholung zwar eher eine "technische Korrektur" als eine fundamentale Trendwende. Doch mittlerweile wachse in den USA die Gefahr einer Deflation. Immer mehr Preisnachlässe und eine stagnierende Wirtschaft könnten die Verbraucher dazu bringen, Investitionsentscheidungen hinauszuzögern. "Ein solches Szenario wäre auf jeden Fall auch schlecht für den Goldpreis", so Breil. Bei Gold-Anlagen sei gegenwärtig also Vorsicht geboten. Allerdings erwartet auch Breil, ähnlich wie die Mehrzahl der Devisenexperten, dass der Dollar noch bis auf 1,07 bis 1,10 pro Euro steigt.

Einen weiteren Dämpfer erhält das gelbe Edelmetall von den Produzenten selbst. Experten vom World Gold Council haben beobachtet, dass viele Goldminen-Gesellschaften bereits jetzt Lieferkontrakte für Termine abgeschlossen haben, die noch weit in der Zukunft liegen. Damit sichern sich die Produzenten den gegenwärtig hohen Preis sogar für das Gold, das noch gar nicht geschürft wurde. Am Markt hat das natürlich ähnliche Auswirkungen wie ein Überangebot.

Und nicht einmal das Wetter spielt mit. In Indien - dem mit Abstand größten Markt für Goldschmuck weltweit - lässt der Monsunregen auf sich warten. Das lässt die Schmuckhersteller natürlich kalt, doch die Bauern rechnen mit einer katastrophal schlechten Ernte. "Und gerade für die indische Landbevölkerung ist Gold die Geldanlage Nummer eins", sagt Rohstoff-Experte Wrzesniok-Roßbach. Wenn die Bauern also weniger Geld einnehmen und ihren bisher gehorteten Schmuck in der Not sogar wieder verkauften, blieben die Händler auf ihrem Edelmetall sitzen. Das beträfe ein gewaltiges Volumen, denn immerhin sind mehr als 60 Prozent der indischen Erwerbstätigen in der Landwirtschaft beschäftigt. "Der Nachfrageeinbruch macht sich bereits jetzt auf dem Weltmarkt bemerkbar", so Wrzesniok-Roßbach.

Die Experten zeigen sich jedoch überzeugt davon, dass Fonds-Notverkäufe, Dollar-Erholung, Preis-Hedging und das schlechte Wetter nur von kurzfristiger Bedeutung sind. Die Gold-Rallye sei zwar vorüber, doch mittelfristig bleibe das Edelmetall ein "attraktives Vehikel", so Breil. Allerdings könnte der Goldpreis bis auf 290 Dollar pro Feinunze fallen, glauben technische Analysten. Auch Breil will einen weiteren Rückgang nicht ausschließen, allerdings nicht bis unter die 300-Dollar-Marke. "Bis zum Jahresende wird sich Goldpreis in einem Rahmen zwischen 300 und 330 Dollar bewegen", lautet seine Prognose.

[ThaiGuru]

Die nächste Meldung ist eine Erklärung dafür. warum die Südafrikanischen Minen, sich die letzten Tage, mit jeweils neuen Tiefs überbieten.

Dieses Posting zu den "angeblich", oder "wirklich" geplanten Zurückführung der SA Minen unter die Kontrolle, der schwarzen Mehrheit der Anlager in Südafrika innert 10 Jahren, war der haupt Grund dafür, dass Aktien wie DROOY, Gold Fields, Harmony Gold, etc. so extrem gefallen sind, und nicht etwa der seit dem Höchst, um ca. 8% gefallenen Goldpreis.

Falls diese Meldung den Tatsachen entsprechen würde, wäre ein Verkauf von Südafrikanischen Gold Minen Aktien, angeraten. Dieser Bericht, der an die Oeffentlichkeit gelangte, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, bewust gesteuert, oder aus Versehen, ist mir bis jetzt noch nicht bekannt.

Nur eines glaube ich mit Sicherheit zu wissen, dass der Bericht anscheinend einigen ganz grossen Investoren, bereits sein Tagen bekannt gewesen sein muss, damit sich diese, in grossem Stiel noch vor der grossen Masse von ihren SA Minen Aktien trennen konnten.

Das ich das als grosse "Sauerrei" empfinde, muss ich wohl nicht sehr betonen.

Dass gerade gestern bei Wkeine Postings möglich waren, hat der Informationsfindung, noch zusätzlich geschadet.

Ich empfehle jedem Südafrika Gold Minen Investor, selbst zu entscheiden, ob es sich empfiehlt, seine SA Minen am Montag noch abzustossen, und der dortigen Verkaufspanik zu folgen, oder ob es nicht besser wäre, abzuwarten, ob diese Informationen wirklich so negativ sind, wie sie anscheinend zur Zeit von den Investoren ausgelegt werden.

Ich möchte aber ausdrücklich betonen, dass sich meine Ueberlegung, für einen evtl. Verkauf von Gold Minen Aktien, nur auf Südafrika beschränkt.

Der engl. Bericht, folgt im nächsten Posting.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

[image]http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/images/new_nav_logo.gif[/img]

http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider…

New mining bill sparks selloff

Bloomberg

July 27 2002 at 01:51AM

Local shares fell for a fifth day in six, led by Anglo American, as the minerals and energy ministry said it was considering a proposal that would give black investors control of all new mines within a decade.

The FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 index
lost 151.49 points, or 1.7 percent, to 9021.51, as 23 stocks rose, 16 fell and 3 were unchanged.

The FTSE/JSE Africa all share index dropped shed 1.1 percent to 9509.60. Bullion lost 1.8 percent to $304.45 yesterday.

Anglo American, the world`s second-biggest mining company, plunged R12.20, or 8.1 percent, to R139. AngloGold dropped R45.50, or 9.9 percent, to R414.50. Gold Fields plunged 10 percent, to R101.20. Harmony fell 16 percent to R109.60, while DRD shed lost R6, or 18 percent, to R27. - Bloomberg

[Insiderin007]

Betroffen wären doch nur alle "new" mines innerhalb der nächsten 10 Jahre...
Insiderin007

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/jpmcrash.htm

JPM Derivatives Monster Crashes

Adam Hamilton

July 26, 2002

This week the stock of elite money-center bank JPMorgan-Chase plummeted. Will JPM`s precipitous plunge adversely affect its enormous derivatives positions?

What an extraordinary week in the markets!

It is not every week that the stocks of major money-center banks crash, frantic rumors fly of derivatives meltdowns and secret Federal Reserve meetings, and investors and speculators are left gaping in awe. As the ancient Chinese curse said, we certainly do live in “interesting times” and there is seldom a dull moment in the greatest bear market in three generations.

After the dust settled from this week’s chilling bear market carnage and resulting spectacular mid-week bear market rally, I found the equity action for elite money-center bank JPMorganChase (JPM) particularly provocative.

On Tuesday July 23rd, JPM’s stock plummeted by an unbelievable 18.1% in a single day! It is hard to overestimate the magnitude of this devastating technical breakdown in the House of Morgan. We are not talking about some fly-by-night dot-com company here, but the flagship US bank which has long been listed as a proud member of the venerable Dow 30 club.

As the graph below vividly illustrates, prior to its fleeting bear market reaction rally in the middle of the week, JPM had hemorrhaged a gut wrenching 66.8% from its all-time high only a couple years earlier! Does anyone else find it disturbing that an elite American bank’s stock is behaving like some of the fallen NASDAQ market darlings? What do the sellers know?



Crash is indeed a strong and emotionally-charged word, but the sickening 18.1% single day rout in JPM is its greatest daily loss by far since Black Monday, October 19th, 1987, which was the largest daily percentage plunge in US stock market history. The nauseating trading action this week led JPM to slice through its previously unassailable 1998 low like Martha Stewart through veggies on the CBS Morning Show. The stunning record volume spike during the one-day JPM crash is quite evident above as well, with 45m shares of the bleeding banker changing hands.

Den vollständigen Report gibts hier:

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/jpmcrash.htm

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Why gold is under pressure?

By James Sinclair and Harry Schultz
Courtesy of www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
Friday, July 26, 2002

There is no question in our mind that the extreme
selling in gold by Chase/Morgan/Goldman, which
occurred for the third time at $322 and continues
today at $305 from the same source, has the
distinct purpose of making sure that the enormous
derivative on Morgan`s books (as reported to the
U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency)
does not show the loss that, we believe, would
have existed at $322, as Morgan`s credit standing
is certain to be re-evaluated.

With the recent negative publicity concerning
derivative transactions at Morgan with Enron, it is
reasonable to assume that debt-rating services will
examine Morgan`s status. That has become normal
procedure in such situations.

Clearly this has created an uncomfortable position
for the gold bulls who are themselves not yet fully
convinced of the integrity of the gold bull market.
We can tell you only that we believe in that
integrity.

The forces at hand that are motivating the gold market
lower, which is the derivative situation, are just
what will contribute to the final higher prices.

We have told you that this is a battle of titans, and
the public so far has very little interest in the recent
building of the price of gold. This drama is very far
from over. It`s barely into Stage 2.

----------------------------

James Sinclair is chairman of Tan Range Exploration
and a gold analyst with expertise in gold derivatives,
gold hedges, gold trading, and gold futures. Harry
Schultz is editor of the International Harry Schultz
Letter.

[ThaiGuru]

BW0040 JUL 26,2002 5:00 PACIFIC 08:00 EASTERN


( BW)(ID-HECLA-MINING)(HL)(HLB) Hecla Announces Preliminary Results of Exchange Offer for Preferred Stock

Business Editors

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 26, 2002--Hecla Mining

Company (NYSE:HL) & (NYSE:HLPrB) today announced the preliminary results of its offer to holders of its Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock to exchange each of their preferred shares for 7 shares of Hecla common stock.
The offer expired at 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on July 25, 2002.

Based on a preliminary count, approximately 1.55 million shares were tendered and not withdrawn, of which approximately 18,000 were tendered pursuant to notices of guaranteed delivery. Hecla will accept all of the properly tendered shares. Delivery of shares of Hecla common stock in exchange for accepted shares will be made over the
next few days by American Stock Transfer & Trust Company, the Exchange Agent.

Hecla commenced the offer on June 24, 2002, at which time there were 2.3 million shares of Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock issued and outstanding. As a result of the completion of the exchange offer, Hecla expects to have approximately 745,000 shares of Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock issued and outstanding as of the time immediately following issuance of the exchanged shares.

As a result of the exchange, the outstanding shares of common stock will increase from approximately 75 million to approximately 86 million.

Hecla Mining Company, headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Venezuela and Mexico. A 111-year-old company, Hecla has long been well known in the mining world and financial markets as a quality producer of silver and gold.

Hecla`s Home Page can be accessed on the Internet at:
http://www.hecla-mining.com

--30--CJG/se*

CONTACT: Hecla Mining Company, Coeur d`Alene
Vicki J. Veltkamp, 208/769-4144
http://www.businesswire.com/cnn/hl.shtml

KEYWORD: IDAHO
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: MINING/METALS
SOURCE: Hecla Mining Company

[ThaiGuru]

Dank der technischen Probleme bei Wetwas verspätet, doch nicht weniger aktuel.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid…

THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH



Gold`s day in the sun delayed
Believers see vast gains ahead for battered bullion

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:47 AM ET July 25, 2002


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold is misfiring as much as its polar opposite, the paper-lined stock market. Yet the metal`s believers say gold`s postponed gains will make future bullion rallies among the most powerful on record.

Gold mining shares, and the metal, saw a steady flow of investor interest until early June, when bullion indexes hit their highest levels in almost three years. Reality hit hard. Gold mining shares lost 11 percent in a day earlier this week, then gained back 6 percent. Such large percentage moves usually come only once every four or five years.

The good times were very good. Holders of gold mutual funds were sitting on gains of 80 percent and more for this year`s first five months against steep losses for the overall stock market. Yet against the backdrop of the stock market`s July swoon and a fading U.S. dollar, the rallies for gold and gold mining shares stopped in their tracks.

Those convinced bullion would keep feeding off dollar weakness, Mideast turmoil and the flight from tainted corporate America are asking themselves what in gold`s name happened.

"I am somewhat perplexed by gold`s moves of late. Lots of possibilities but none of them sound enough to say, `This is what is going on,`" says Barry Cooper, precious metals analyst at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.

Gold, the actual metal that is supposed to be attached neither to corporate liabilities nor sovereign debt, flirted with $330 an ounce in late May, giving the metal an 18 percent gain for the year. That was the best return of any class of investments in the world. Bullion then came hurtling back to earth. On Thursday morning, spot gold was $310 an ounce, down $1.

The mining shares, many of them having manufactured 100 percent-plus profits for their followers this year, were hit hardest. As a group, gold mining shares in most countries have lost 30 percent of their value since late May/early June. At one point this week, shares of the world`s largest gold miner, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), were back to where they were in late January.



"Gold has failed to break through $330 on two occasions, and with gold needing to advance to continue to drive the (mining) shares, gold shares were vulnerable to a sell-off. That vulnerability has been compounded by the wholesale liquidation that`s playing out on Wall Street," says the longtime editor of Gold Mining Stock Report, Bob Bishop.

To be sure, gold mining stocks are still far ahead of the overall stock market for the past 12 months. The U.S.-traded mining shares are up 10 percent for the past year vs. an almost 30 percent loss for the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index.



Some point to hanky-panky on Wall Street as one reason for the gold selling this month. Wall Street critics say investment banks used large gold derivative positions to finance failed companies such as Enron. J.P. Morgan Chase and Co. (JPM: news, chart, profile), the largest issuer of gold derivatives in the United States, is at the center of such speculation.

Others see banks, and the Wall Street community, being forced to raise money in order to cover their gaping losses from the plunging stock market. Thus, large banks are selling gold to meet their fiscal obligations. Or so the thinking goes.



Gold, like many commodities, is often the subject of cloak-and-dagger talk. Yet few can pin down how, or why, an investment bank manipulates the metal in trading pits and on the global stage, where central banks own vast supplies of bullion.

"As one would expect, there have been rumors galore of manipulation," says Adrian Day, a Maryland fund manager and editor of Global Analyst newsletter. "One might reasonably ask why today -- with stock markets collapsing, and the derivative problems of J.P. Morgan and Citibank (C: news, chart, profile) suddenly grabbing the headlines, why would anyone chose today to dump his gold? One cannot dismiss the possibility of official intervention in the gold market."

Brien Lundin, editor of one of the oldest bullion publications, 31-year-old Gold Newsletter, also thinks governments might be meddling in the gold market, just as they do in currency trading. "On Monday, gold reached $324 -- and the Dow was in free-fall. Something had to be done and, over the next two days, the dollar soared and gold dropped like a dead duck. The intervention was obvious."

Lundin`s Jefferson Financial LLC stages one of the year`s biggest gatherings of gold and contrarian investment advisers, the New Orleans 2002 Conference in November. Newsletter editor Richard Russell and mutual fund icon John Templeton will make presentations this year. See more on the conference.

John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX: news, chart, profile) in New York, is one of the metal`s biggest believers. His writings on miner hedging, derivatives and the thinly traded and easily moved gold-futures markets are among the best on offer these days. "Gold got hammered (earlier this week) because (Goldman Sachs unit) J Aron had built up a short position front-running against a central bank seller, probably European," says Hathaway. "A nice trade for them, and I don`t think there was more to it than that. Physical buying had been absent for a month but started to reappear at the low end of the range."



Gold mining stock analysts, such as Cooper at CIBC in Toronto, are sticking with their heady price targets. Cooper sees gold going to $350 an ounce sometime next year. In a 100-page examination of gold and gold mining shares, Cooper features a picture of a 78-ounce gold nugget from Greenville, Calif. He uses the hunk of metal as a launching point on why gold mining shares deserve to be very expensive.

"Based on the spot price of bullion, the gold in the sample is worth about $22,000 at spot prices. The specimen`s market value, however, is more than $60,000 given its rarity," says Cooper. "Gold stocks are also rare as an investment, with a worldwide market capitalization of under $60 billion, or less than 1 percent of the market capitalization for the combined S&P 500 companies.

Gold deposits are rare, as any exploration geologist will tell you, and therefore, premium valuations can be expected."

At his California office, editor Bishop at Gold Mining Stock Report is waiting for the next phase of the gold rally. "A month ago I believed gold to be in the early stages of a long-term bull market; nothing has happened in the interim to change that view."



In Louisiana, Lundin at Gold Newsletter sees great things ahead for those who stay the course on bullion. "The bad news for gold investors is that the $325 price level will be furiously defended by those who are on the wrong side of the gold trend," he says. "The good news is that, when it is finally breached, some pretty amazing things are going to happen for gold and gold stock investors."

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Irgendwie mutet es schon sehr seltsam an, dass gerade am gestrigen Tag das wo-Board ein technisches (?) Problem hatte. Seltsamerweise hat es auch bei kitco nicht funktioniert. Mangels Zeit konnte ich nicht weiter verfolgen, ob und was noch so - oder auch nicht - ablief.

Ist das alles nun bloß eine Häufung von Zufällen, Paranoia oder wie ernst ist die Lage wirklich?

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.investmentrarities.com/07-2002late.html

Butler’s Bombshells

By James R. Cook

Late July 2002


(Part of the following essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse all these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)


Over 18 months ago, before it was widely known that the U.S. was out of silver, Ted Butler wrote, "Fifty years ago the U.S. Government held over 3 billion ounces of silver, the largest stockpile of silver in the world. In less than a year, it will own zero silver."


On November 27 of 2000 the U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center announced its remaining stockpile of 15 million ounces of silver was being shipped to the U.S. mint to manufacture silver Eagles and other silver coins. Ted Butler wrote, "Never in the history of the United States has the need for holding a stockpile of silver been more important. That’s because not only is the U.S. Government almost officially out of silver, but so is the rest of the world. World inventories of silver are at the lowest levels in hundreds of years. That’s because we use more silver than we produce. Modern technologies, computers, communications, electricity and photography require massive amounts of silver. We don’t mine or recycle enough to provide the amounts needed.


"We have consumed huge amounts of silver from the time of the Incas, Aztecs and the Conquistadors; from the time of the Comstock Lode and the Sherman Silver Act. How we consumed so much previously produced silver, depleting the US Government’s and the world’s inventories, with no dramatic rise in price, is an issue that I’ve written tens of thousands of words on. Primarily it’s the leasing of silver, along with the huge short position that has artificially held down the price. The main point is this, the deficit, which requires continued massive amounts of existing inventory to continue, has just officially lost its prime provider, Uncle Sam. For the past 50 years the U.S. Government has donated 60 million ounces of silver per year to feed the deficit. But now the jig is up. Never again, will the U.S. Government provide silver to the market.


"Instead, the U.S. Government will become a user, courtesy of the popular coinage programs it has created. It’s a double whammy; from net seller to net buyer. (To those who would say the U.S. can just stop minting silver coins, think of the mega-bullish event that would be created by the U.S. announcing it is stopping the minting of silver coins because silver isn’t available.) Once Uncle Sam turns buyer, all will be aware of it. There will be no more belief in the silly bearish stories that are constantly written about no demand for silver. If the U.S. Government is demanding it, after being a supplier for 50 years, that is all you need to know about real silver demand."


Last month Congress passed legislation to allow the U.S. Treasury Department to buy up to nine million ounces of silver annually on the open market to make silver Eagle coins. Ted Butler pointed out, "Sales of silver Eagles could surge. The Government must buy that silver on the open market. I suspect their buying will not be at the low price they got when they sold their silver.


"Some people may argue with my thesis that there will be a price explosion that sends silver to $50 or $100 an ounce. Consider that ten years ago, palladium was selling for $60 an ounce. If someone had predicted that it would rise 15-fold, that person would have been ridiculed. Unlike silver, palladium did not have the world’s largest short position. It did not have a 50-year deficit. It did not have the prospect of the world’s largest and most consistent former above-ground supplier (the US Government) turning into a buyer."


Mr. Butler also made the crucial point that governments can sell gold to stop a price rise in the yellow metal, but they can’t sell silver. "The U.S. authorities will never be able to cap any silver rally by selling, or threatening to sell, real silver to cover a market shortage. Oh, the rules may be changed on the COMEX, but no real silver will be dumped by the Feds."


He also worried about the effect of this depleted silver inventory on the production of U.S. military hardware. "The military buildup will be a hardware buildup. It will involve the production of missiles, sophisticated aircraft, ships, and weapons of all types, including space weapons and lasers. Every single bit of hardware will require more silver than was ever needed before. Yet the U.S., for the first time in its history, has no silver. Think about that for a moment. Why was silver in the National Defense Stockpile in the first place?"


Butler’s biggest bombshell may be his campaign aimed at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to end what he calls the "uneconomic and manipulative concentrated silver short selling on the COMEX by four or less commercial traders." What stands out is the complete lack of disagreement or argument by the CFTC, or anyone else, to Butler’s specific allegations. Two weeks ago he wrote the following letter of explanation to a member of a congressional committee.


"If possible, would you enter this statement, for the record, for your Committee Meeting tomorrow. I have written Chairman James E. Newsome, at least ten (10) times since February 12, 2002, alleging a price manipulation in the silver contract on the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). I base my allegations on weekly CFTC reports which show four or less traders on the COMEX holding a net short position in excess of any possible legitimate economic purpose. In fact, this net short position is much larger than all the known silver bullion in the world. This absurd condition has never occurred in any other traded commodity.


"The CFTC did respond to me on April 12, 2002, acknowledging that my allegations would represent a violation of CFTC and Exchange rules. But it has been almost three months since that acknowledgment, and I feel the CFTC is stalling. Inasmuch as Neal Wolkoff, Executive Vice President of the New York Mercantile Exchange, parent of the COMEX, is on your scheduled witness list, I ask that Chairman Newsome and Mr. Wolkoff respond to the allegation of an ongoing manipulation in the COMEX silver market. I have made sure that Mr. Wolkoff has personally received all correspondence that I have sent to the CFTC, so he should be aware of my allegation."


Mr. Butler sees no possible way that the short sellers can extricate themselves from their huge short positions. "They’re trapped," he states.


More and more these days we hear about the leasing of silver and gold. Mr. Butler wrote about leasing before anyone else. He figured it out. Until he focused attention on this complicated procedure, it took place in the dark. He concluded that the only reason silver failed to spike upward in price was an unexplained or unknown source of supply. Through extensive detective work and theorizing, he uncovered both gold and silver leasing. In fact, over five years ago, in early 1997, he wrote to Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to warn him about the dangers of leasing. Try as you might, you won’t find anything written on the subject prior to that. Everything you hear about leasing today originated in the disclosures and revelations made by Ted Butler.


Importantly, he argues that the price of silver must rise dramatically. He says, "This is as close to a sure thing as you are likely to see in your lifetime. Sure and simple. We use more silver than we produce. That can’t continue. The only thing that can stop us using more silver than we produce is sharply higher prices. That will curtail demand and encourage more production. Figuring out how high silver prices must climb, and how long they must remain in force in order to balance supply and demand, might require a fair amount of skill and luck. In other words, when to sell. But that’s a separate question from what to do now. Right now it’s simple, silver is the buy of a lifetime."


Mr. Butler is the world’s foremost expert on silver. The rest of the world’s precious metals analysts don’t hold a candle to him. He’s light years ahead of the commodity and industry experts. When he says that silver at today’s price levels carries little risk and high potential for gain, you should listen. If Albert Einstein told you to bet on a law of physics, you probably would take the gamble. When Ted Butler tells you to buy silver now before it rises, you should consider his superior knowledge on this subject and pay attention to his advice.


LOOSE MONEY

By James R. Cook


The policy of easy money and credit expansion employed today by the U.S. must eventually produce a depression. So it was taught by Ludwig von Mises and the Austrian economists and so it has happened again and again. A boom engineered by monetary and credit expansion cannot last. As we are seeing now, it inevitably comes to a bitter end.


Nevertheless, the monetary authorities continue an aggressive policy of loose money. They maintain interest rates at artificially low levels, monetize government debt and pump money into the banking system. So far, monetary easing has failed to re-ignite the boom. A titanic struggle exists between the free-market forces of contraction and the government-sponsored forces of expansion. Only one thing is certain, there’s no good outcome. We will all be the poorer for it.


Artificially low interest rates discourage saving just as high interest rates cause people to save more. Low rates also cause an increase in borrowing and debt. As we have seen, much of this borrowing goes into speculative ventures and highly-leveraged investments that otherwise would not exist. These policies cause thrift, savings and capital investment to plunge while spending and consuming explode.


Our economy has been living on booze and pills. We can drink another fifth and smooth things out for awhile. But our deep-seated problems can’t ever be permanently resolved without pain. That’s the thing to understand about the U.S. economy. It’s dysfunctional. The debt and the deficits are addictions we can’t stop and we’re continuously taking bigger doses. Unfortunately, we’re going to hit the gutter someday.


In his latest newsletter, Dr. Kurt Richebacher gets to the nub of our predicament. I’ve taken the liberty of condensing some of his views.


"The total carnage of national savings is the U.S. economy’s most important – but also most widely ignored – predicament. Saving, in actual fact, is the indispensable condition for economic growth because it releases the resources that can be used to produce plants and equipment, adding to the nation’s capital stock. Saving is the indispensable, vital condition that provides the necessary means of investment. A country without such savings is a country without the possibility of capital formation. Manifestly, the United States has become such a country. Ever since Adam Smith, savings has meant exactly one and the same thing in all languages: it is the part of current income that is not spent on consumption. To pin down and emphasize the key point: savings from current income represent the economy’s supply of capital.


In the U.S. national savings have been squandered to pay for spending that the consumer cannot afford from his current income. Such massive dissaving is a profoundly destructive phenomenon. The inherent damage to the economy’s whole structure arises from the fact that it fosters an ill-fated, unsustainable diversion in the economy’s whole demand and output structure towards consumption at the expense of investment.


The U.S. economy’s growth structure has been literally devastated in the past few years. National saving, net investment and profit margins are at all-time lows. Their malignant counterparts are a record-high share of private consumption in GDP and soaring foreign indebtedness. The widely expected U.S. economic recovery is unlikely to materialize without a prompt and strong recovery in business fixed capital investment and housing. Yet current conditions make recoveries in these sectors virtually impossible.


Slumping business investment spending translates into slumping employment and consumer incomes. So far, though, the consumer has largely offset this income squeeze by stampeding still faster into debt. For the time being, this has certainly prevented much worse from happening. But it definitely lacks the necessary thrust to jump-start a recovery. For that to materialize, it requires without question the return of rather strong growth in business fixed investment – which in turn depends on sufficiently positive profit prospects. The consumer’s confidence in the future is grossly misplaced. Monitoring underlying economic and financial conditions, our conclusion is that the high-riding confidence of the American consumer is in for a devastating shock.


The first thing to get straight is that this was – and still is – the most outrageous bubble economy in history, far worse than the U.S. bubble of the 1920s and Japan’s bubble of the late 1980s. In terms of quantity of money and credit creation, the Fed’s easing has been a sweeping success. But, in terms of its effects on GDP, national income and the financial markets, it is an outright disaster. These are, of course, the only effects that matter. The bear market and a major recession are only just beginning.


Prolonged, extreme monetary looseness created multiple bubbles both in the U.S. economy and in its financial system. The most obvious and spectacular among them was certainly the Nasdaq bubble. But the biggest more terrifying bubbles are the consumer bubble, the bond bubble and the dollar bubble. All three have yet to pop, and when they do, they will wreak unprecedented havoc on the whole U.S. financial system because all three of them are addicted to permanent, limitless debt creation. Eventually, a point is reached where the financial system is unable to create the ever-greater credit requirements to keep these bubbles expanding."


As for the dollar, Dr. Richebacher adds this worrisome comment. "The grossly overleveraged U.S. financial system requires a strong dollar and permanent, huge capital inflows. The U.S. trade deficit and the accumulated foreign indebtedness have reached a scale that defies any possible action by central banks. The fate of the dollar is out of any control."


It’s important to appreciate and understand this clear-thinking economist who makes dire predictions for the U.S. economy. He has been uncanny with the accuracy of his predictions over the past few years. If he continues to be right, we have a difficult time ahead. The monetary authorities can lose control here. A vicious contraction can devastate the economy. This can easily become worse than anything we’ve known in our lifetimes. Start thinking about a financial crisis. Right now it’s not just possible, it’s probable.


SILVER PRODUCTS


We are selling around two hundred thousand ounces of silver in some weeks. That’s one more example of strong demand in the silver equation. U.S. buyers are a growing factor in the silver market. We’ve sold close to ten million ounces since our first silver mailing written by Ted Butler. It’s bound to make a difference.


This week a major Canadian bullion fund told me that they have only received half the silver they bought several weeks ago. Ted Butler brings us more facts. "Here`s an update to my recent speculation that we would see four million ounces transferred out of the COMEX warehouses, in order to satisfy the Central Fund of Canada`s recent purchase. As of the last publishing deadline (June 27), almost two million ounces had been transferred out, and the Fund had received that amount. Since then, another four million ounces were transferred out (gross) from the COMEX, so I had assumed the Fund got the other two million ounces it was waiting for.


Now I have found out that the Fund got none of this additional silver that came out of the COMEX, and they will have to wait several weeks for the remaining two million ounces. This suggests the wholesale physical silver market is much tighter than I imagined. There has been very unusual turnover in COMEX warehouse stocks lately, suggesting new demand for physical silver. Remember, 95% of the time the COMEX silver inventory doesn`t change, as most owners have no reason to move it. High physical turnover strongly suggests unusual physical demand. The fact that new stuff is coming in to balance the old stuff being removed, leaving the total levels unchanged doesn`t bother me, as I have a pet theory. Since the whole world is waiting for COMEX silver total inventories to decline to confirm the shortage, the shorts are pulling silver from every possible nook and cranny to bring to the COMEX to show the totals aren`t falling. Don`t let this fool you. It can only work in the short term."


If this is true, you should consider owning silver now. It’s not unrealistic to put 10% of your net worth into silver. You might start by buying a few bags of circulated Franklin half dollars. You get 715 ounces of silver in one of these $1,000 face value bags. That’s 2,000 silver half dollars. The risks certainly appear low at these price levels.


We also have some bags of uncirculated Franklin half dollars. These are dated 1961, 1962 and 1963. These bright and shiny silver coins were minted from 1948 through 1963. That’s a short mint run for a coin. They are 90% pure silver and a bag contains 725 ounces of silver. These bags cost more than the circulated bags, but if you like a collectors item with the potential to rise because of the silver content and because of demand for original uncirculated coins, these Franklin bags are an excellent diversification. They are never found in any quantity and we rarely have more than a few on hand. Call us today and order either type of Franklin half dollar. We also have bars and a variety of other silver coins. Call us now at 1-800-328-1860.


Sincerely,



James R. Cook

[keepitshort]

@SchlimmerSilberfinger

für mich war das auch merkwürdig dass man bei
wallstreet-online nicht mehr posten konnte.

Dabei fiel mir ein das die USA in Europa das System
Echelon nutzen um Betriebsspionage in Europa zu betreiben.

Die USA nutzen garantiert ihre Geheimdienstabteilungen
um Betriebsspionage zu betreiben oder um sonst irgendwie
der USA zu dienen.

Echelon ist ein Abhörsystem des US-Miliärs das man auch
für zivile Spionage nutzen kann.

Die Franzosen haben es ja mal gezeigt was man mit
einem Schiff von Greenpeace macht.
Es wurde einfach versenkt.

Für genauere Fakten bin ich natürlich sehr dankbar
da einige Ereignisse schon weit zurückliegen

Ich könnte mir aber Vorstellen dass US-Geheimdienste
irgendwelche Internetkanäle stören könnten.
Technisch einfach und keiner findet den Verursacher.

Für JP-Morgan würden die US-Geheimdienste bestimmt
eine Gefälligkeitsleistung übernehmen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/top10industries.…

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Bericht von:

Gold meltdown wipes out $9bn in 1 week

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…

Gruss, und ein schönes Wochenende wünscht (fast) allen.

ThaiGuru

[erdede]

hallo zusammen,

wie seht ihr das Gold in der nächsten Zeit?
Wird die 300er Marke halten (charttechnisch durchaus möglich) oder fällt es weiter gegen 290, was ich glaube dass dies der Tiefstpunkt in der momentanen Lage ist.

Gruss
erdede

[kickaha]

Hai Thai,

was glaubst Du, iweweit es die Goldies am MOnatg zerbrösenl wird. Siehst DU werte unter 9 und was gleubst Du, wie lange sich das Niveau unten halten wird.

Gruß Kick

[ThaiGuru]

@kickaha

Von welcher Goldmine sprichst Du?

Allgemein zum Verhalten der Goldminenaktien nächste Woche?

Wüsste ich selbst auch gerne.
Warten wir es am besten mal ab.

Gruss

TahiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

July 27 - Gold $302.80 down $6.80 - Silver $4.65 down 20 cents

The Gold Bashing and J.P. Morgan Chase

Take a look at this gold chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/82

Gold rose sharply a week ago Friday and was poised to take out massive resistance at $330. Morgan Stanley’s Barton Biggs put out a research report talking about $500/$1,000 gold that day and it created quite the stir. This past Monday he conveniently showed up on CNBC saying he really doesn’t understand gold. Horse crap. He understands it very well. He was told The Gold Cartel was going to take gold down and he didn’t want to come across as Humpty Dumpty to The Wall Street world.

Looking at the gold chart, you would think it was a chart of “new crop gold” and it rained all week.

You would think the news that affects the gold price was very negative. But, we all know the exact opposite was true. The news does not get much better. The most important bank in the U.S., J.P. Morgan Chase, was near collapse. The stock market practically collapsed midweek. The Mid East news worsened. Stock markets tanked round the world. Yet, gold is slaughtered.

If gold were a free market and there was no Gold Cartel, it would have rallied as much as it tumbled.

The good news is that we really are closer to the big move to $800/$1,000 than we were last week. I say that because of the coming banking crisis. J.P. Morgan Chase is in big trouble. The action of their share price reflects how dire the situation really is. Yesterday, it fell to $21, before coming back with the orchestrated DOW rally. The DOW was weak all day, but the Working Group on Financial Markets took it up near the close of the trading session. That helped the Morgan shares, but it still finished at $22.25, down 10 cents.

At the same time there is a banking crisis in Germany, according to the CEO of Dresdner Bank. many German banks are Morgan`s derivatives counter parties?

The heat on Morgan AND Gold Cartel member, Citigroup, is intensifying:

Citi, Morgan execs questioned

WASHINGTON (AP) _ A senator leading an investigation into big investment banks` ties with now-bankrupt Enron Corp. has asked the heads of Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to answer questions on their use of offshore companies in deals with Enron.

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., sent letters Thursday to Citigroup (C: news, chart, profile) chairman and chief executive officer Sanford Weill and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile) president and CEO William Harrison, setting a Monday deadline for them to personally provide the information.

Levin heads the investigative panel of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. At a hearing of the panel Tuesday, a committee investigator testified that the Wall Street investment banks, including Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase, gave Enron multimillion-dollar loans that helped the company disguise its true financial condition. In some cases, the investigator said, the banks knew Enron was using deceptive accounting for the loans.

Officials of Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase denied any wrongdoing in testimony at the hearing.

The letters to the bank executives from Levin, also signed by Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the subcommittee`s senior Republican, cited ``troubling factual issues`` that emerged at the hearing.

Spokesmen for the two financial companies couldn`t be reached for comment Thursday night.

In a memo sent to Citigroup employees, Weill said Citigroup`s transactions with Enron were legal, met accounting standards and reflected industry practices.

``And our people, relying on the advice of independent legal and accounting experts, believe they were doing the right thing,`` Weill said.

Harrison delivered a similar message to the investment community Wednesday, saying that the J.P. Morgan Chase acted ``properly and with integrity`` in all of its dealings with Enron, while also assuring investors that the bank itself was financially sound.

The bipartisan investigative subcommittee also found that some banks actively aided Enron in its deceptive accounting in return for big fees and favors in other deals.

Enron made a secret oral agreement in 1999 with Citigroup, the nation`s largest financial institution, that disguised the company`s improper accounting for a $125 million loan known as Roosevelt, according to committee investigators.

The banks used complex financial transactions to boost Enron`s anemic cash flow to match its profit growth on paper, according to the investigators. Enron, an energy-trading company, recorded the money from the bank loans _ said to total $8 billion _ as prepaid trades of natural gas and other commodities with an entity based in the Channel Islands off Britain.

-END-

According to the OCC, the gold derivative positions at Morgan and Citi are huge. Gold derivative positions (see below for explanation) are in the end about gold borrowed from central banks. Morgan and Citi lent out this borrowed gold to someone as a cheap source of financing. Enron is a likely candidate and the investigation is all about commodities and loans. The investigating Congressional committee and press ought to get into the gold loan issue shortly, if they have not discovered it already.

In addition, the CEOs of Morgan and Citi have to sign off as to their veracity of their financial statements in a little more than two weeks as to their veracity. That should be interesting. Will they risk a potential jail term to hide Morgan/Citi’s real gold positions?

JP Morgan Chase has 16 trillion of interest rate derivatives too. How does one manage such a thing in a crisis?

Gold was smashed this week because JP Morgan is in such a crisis. There is good commentary on this below.

The bottom line for me is the cabal is running and playing scared. They have a big problem. The financial problems for the bullion banks are going to only grow larger in the weeks to come. This is what happens when a “bubble” bursts. It is very painful. History tells us so. The Gold Cartel is toying with a gold derivative neutron bomb. It could go off at any time now, from any price level, as a result of the investigations into Morgan and Citi.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $3.81, PM $2.69, with world gold at $309.35 and

$309.25. Below legal import point.

Tocom gold today traded quite steadily: world gold was virtually unchanged at $309.35. Open interest rose the equivalent of 509 Comex contracts on volume equal to 33,362 Comex lots. (New York yesterday by contrast traded 54,020 lots and reduced open interest by 5,899 contracts.)

Much delight is being expressed by the enemies of gold about the metals’ weakness this week in the face of objectively favourable conditions. Bloomberg, for instance, in a rare comment on gold, gloats that recoveries in the dollar and the stock market have happened, “reducing the metal’s allure as an investment.”

Fund liquidation is cited as the proximate cause. In fact, while there has no doubt been long liquidation, and probably even more shorting, gold has been smashed back down after last Friday’s strength by enormous selling, which cumulated to some 350,000 Comex contracts this week, including a huge 31,000 in the last half hour. Long liquidation and some short selling were no doubt present, but with lease rates hardly moving, it looks very likely that gold’s friends can thank a resolute Central Bank seller for this week’s entertainment. No wonder the gold shares swooned!

JB

[ThaiGuru]

Ueber dieses Posting, bei f17.Parsimony.net wurde ich gerade eben von einem aufmerksamen Leser hingewiesen!

Der Inhalt dieses Postings, kommt einer Explosion gleich, falls denn dieses Gerücht, über ein angeblich zirkulierendes Papier aus dem Umfeld der G8, auch nur einen Hauch von Wahrheit enthielte.

Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/134229.htm

Neuer Goldstandard in Sicht? Über ein wirres (?) G8-Paper



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[ Börse & Wirtschaft: Elliott-Wellen-Forum ]
http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/index.htm



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Geschrieben von dottore am 27. Juli 2002 21:50:10:

Hi,

es kursiert ein Paper, das die Möglichkeiten eines neuen GS andenkt. Die Quelle ist aus dem G8-Zirkel. Der Konfident ist der Sprache, in der das Paper ihr vorliegt (welche habe ich nicht rauskriegen können) nur bedingt mächtig, das Papier aber definitiv auf american quarto geschrieben, wie auf Nachfrage ausdrücklich bestätigt wurde.

Ausgangspunkt das Übliche. Vertrauenskrise usw. Dann erfolgt eine Gegenüberstellung der Banknoten im Euro-Raum und der USA mit ca. 1,3 Bio. Zur neuen Deckung werden die beidseitigen "nationalen" Goldbestände addiert, ca. 13.000 Tonnen. USA wollen letzte Reserve halten und die an IMF gegebenen Goldreserven werden, soweit erkennbar, nicht einbezogen.

Grob gerechnet würde von einer Gold/Euro-Parität ausgegangen und damit letztlich von einer Parität zu Gold von 10 : 1 g, nur auf ausstehende Noten bezogen. Riesige Hin- und Herrechnungen...

Um die Sache zu starten, sollen jeweils ca. 10 und 5 g (fein) schwere "starting coins" geprägt werden. Offenbar stand die "Goldmark" der Buba Pate, nur dass damals 1 Mark drauf stand. Jetzt würde 100 bzw. 50 drauf stehen. Damit quasi eine Verankerung im Markt via Marktpreis.

Münzen nur in kleinem Umfang ausgeprägt, sozusagen als Signal. Rest des Goldes als Deckung und gegen Noten über Parität abrufbar.

Deckung soll komischerweise aber nur 10 % sein, was ein gewaltiges Potential für weitere Goldabgabe schüfe. Die soll im üblichen Verfahren (Offenmarktgeschäfte) geschehen. Wie das ausgeschaukelt werden soll, habe ich nicht enträtseln können.

Alte Münzen werden wieder als kursant erklärt, also 20-$-Eagle wieder als 20 $. Was die sich dabei denken, weiß ich nicht. Franc- oder Markstücke aus alter Zeit zu Euro-Parität umgerechnet.

Unterem Strich soll Gold nach Maßgabe der Haltung der 10%-Deckung auch angekauft werden, in specie. Damit es keinen "Schnitt" der privaten Goldhalter gibt, sei genügend Gold im Pool vorhanden, um den Preis so zu drücken, dass kein Verkauf erfolgt. Es entsteht also in der ersten Phase ein gespaltener Markt.

Es gibt einen Passus, wo das Poolgold dem tatsächlich verfügbaren Privatgold gegenübergestellt wird, letzteres ohne Schmuckgold, von dem man annimmt, dass dessen Markteinschleusungskosten zu hoch seien, um es einschmelzen zu lassen.

Der Preis für Privatgold in $ oder € soll offenbar per dauernde physische Abgaben aus dem Pool jeweils gedrückt werden, damit er sich schließlich so einpendelt, dass mit der 1/10-Deckung dauerhaft gearbeitet werden kann. Deckung wird in diversen Varianten durchgespielt.

Minen werden Andienungszwang an Pool haben, können also nicht mehr als Anbieter auf freiem Goldmarkt in Erscheinung treten. Einzelne Minen lang und breit aufgeführt.

Offenbar sperrt sich London vehement. Soll aber vor die Alternative gestellt sein, entweder Euro/Dollar beizutreten oder den Londoner Goldmarkt zu verlieren.

Dagegen steht ein planmäßiges Herunterfahren der Goldproduktion, mit Stillegungsprämie und einer Versiegelungsprämie, so dass diese wieder öffnen können, sobald die Aktion abgeschlossen ist und die Produktivitätszuwächse bei den Spitzenminen im spill over auch auf die anderen Minen übergehen, die dazu dann wieder Investitionszuschüsse erhielten. Für Südafrika sind Ausgleichszahlungen in Hartwährung $ und € vorgesehen.

Als Zeitrahmen sind 20/25 Jahre in der Diskussion.

Wenn ich`s richtig summiere, käme auf Dauer eine De facto-Parität von 85 : 1 heraus, wenn 15 % des Poolgoldes zunächst verprägt würde. Was den Goldpreis dann schließlich in einem "controlled downmove" auf 45 $/€ /oz. fixieren sollte. Dies wohl auch, um Inflationserwartungen zu ersticken.

Die Notenbanken sind gespaltener Ansicht, da einige ihr Gold zum Tageskurs bilanzieren (Frankreich), andere (BRD) einen Ausgleichsposten gebildet haben, den sie sofort wieder aus der Bilanz nehmen könnten. Ein Ausgleich über die EZB soll geprüft werden, quasi ein vertikaler Finanzausgleich.

Es sind auch Umstellungen bei den öffentlichen Anleihen ins Auge gefasst, von denen man erwartet, dass sie als "gold covered" einen deutlichen Zinsabschlag erhalten, was im Gegenzug die nationalen Haushalte entlasten bzw. auf Dauer zu einem Ausgleich bringen würde. Umlaufende Anleihen sollten, sobald sich kein Zinsspread mehr zwischen $- und €-Raum (auf das Verschwinden des Zinsspreads bei Öffentlichen dort wird ausdrücklich abgehoben) zeigt per Emittenten-Kündigung konvertiert werden.

An einer runden Parität zum Yen wird noch gefeilt. Japan erscheint wohl auch ausdrücklich als Tiefzins-Ideal, jedenfalls, was die öffentlichen Anleihen angeht.

Mehr derzeit nicht in Erfahrung zu bringen, auch nicht, ob es nur ein Working Paper irgendeines Sub Comittees oder Think Tanks ist oder mehr.

Jedenfalls scheint es nur um eine Banknoten-Deckung in Gold zu gehen, der die Staatssanierung quasi automatisch folgen soll. Vermutlich ist das Ganze so wirr und kompliziert, dass sich Insider, die davon Wind haben, auch keinen klaren Reim drauf machen können. Ob die aktuelle fast fallbeilartige Entwicklung bei Gold und Minen damit in Zusammenhang gebracht werden könnte, was nicht unlogisch wäre, weiß ich nicht.

Gruß!

[Insiderin007]

Könnte jemand davon vielleicht die wesentlichen Aussagen ins Englische übersetzen ?
GATA wäre daran interessiert.
[e-mail] wäre die Emailadresse von Bill Murphy...
Danke,
Insiderin007

[Insiderin007]

www.lemetropolecafe.com

How the Ordinary Gold Advocate can BEAT the

Big

Guys



The Battle of the Titans meets its Match



By James E. Sinclair & Harry D. Schultz







In today’s world when the arrest of corporate officers of public corporations is applauded by equity markets rising, do you really believe Central Banks will want to be exposed as the financiers of crime? There is a smoking gun out there and its name is “Gold Leases.” Yes, the 89% of gold derivatives which have nothing whatsoever to do with gold production is the smoking gun. This is evidence that the HIDDEN NUMBER of total gold leases done by central banks has been converted by the gold bank cartel to CHEAP money to finance their client’s activities. Who are their clients? Well, we are finding out that the clients of the gold dealer subsidiaries of major international commercial and investment banks are the Enrons of the world! We previously entitled this type of “Carry Trade” as the wise guys. Well it appears that these “Wise Guys” are as notorious as the Sopranos depicted on TV. The bankers for these “Wise Guys” are none other than the world’s leading central banks in their “Gold Leasing Policy.” Yes, the evidence screams that CENTRAL BANKS, via gold leases, have financed CRIME. All the data is on the books of the Enrons of the world, their international partnerships, and the sham transactions on the books of their gold dealer’s derivative counterparties!



How will all this come to light and end the devastating misuse and attack on the gold markets? Listen carefully and ACT. The various regulators and criminal investigators now looking at the records are failing to do it properly. They must stop looking at each entity separately. Those investigators now reviewing Enron and all other energy trading companies under subpoena must look at the trading of their sham partnerships, sham transactions and net trading gold dealer derivative subsidiaries of major international banking firms and investment bank’s transactions AS ONE SINGLE ENTITY. When that is done the scam will come to light like a flash of lightening on a dark night. They will find, we believe, NO risk at all in the sham transactions of the miscreant corporations when all trades are looked at as if it was one entity, not many. So called “No risk” is the precedent term/criteria the US government used in getting the conviction of the inventors of this type of derivative trading in the early 90s in the Southern district of the US Federal Court System of New York.



We believe it will be seen when considering all parties plus the derivative dealer, as one singular entity( for investigating purposes) that all this dealing was a daisy chain of so-called risk- less transactions for the singular purpose of funneling huge amounts of money from the miscreant corporation’s treasury to private party miscreants via international partnerships; gold leases misdirected as to purpose to produce real cash via the derivative dealer’s transaction. The real cash came from the proceeds of the sale of gold in the misuse of the gold leasing program of the central banks. The misuse of the Gold Leasing Program to finance the scams will become evident.



It will become evident that Central Banks have unknowingly been the financiers of crime via the gold derivative dealers. The money that has disappeared via the international partnerships from the miscreant corporations into private hands via the risk- less sham transactions of the sham partnerships finds its source, in our opinion, from the gold leases involved in this whole mess. Not only have the Central Banks financed crime but they have been robbed of the national assets in the process. It would almost seem appropriate if it were not for the fact that the gold involved is a national asset.



We believe the investigators will discover that some entities have used the gold leasing facility as a sophisticated “money laundering” exercise in which the pay off is the laundering of the proceeds of gold leases, via gold sales to miscreant private individuals internationally





“Marcia” posted an excellent comment on “Le Metropole” website http://209.41.120.60/pfv.cfm?PfvID=2367 wherein he or she made it clear to us that you may not have understood what we have been telling you for months. The so called Carry Trade is nothing more than the “Wise Guys” using the “Gold Leasing” of central banks DIVERTED from its original purpose (a lending mechanism for those who have gold production) to financing DICEY businesses by the gold dealer’s cartel for huge profit to that gold dealer’s cartel. It may well not even be known to the top management of the major international commercial and investment banks that they are involved. This may well be the largest and eventually the most devastating activity of ROGUE subsidiaries of major organizations. It may explain the recent & unexpected retirement of some of the leading lights of the derivative trading departments of these subsidiaries.





How do you END these attacks on the gold market that are aimed at keeping the lid on this misuse of national assets by central banks to unknowingly finance CRIME? Now you have to see why the BIG GUYS have sold gold down from $322 three times. Now, you know why the effort this time to break the gold market is so intense and dedicated. If you want to bring the vicious attacks on the gold market by the big guys to an end, then send this article in “ Italics” as the body of a letter you write to the following people. Post this article on every chat site and on every web site you know. Send this article to every person you know, gold or non gold orientated. Send this article to every newspaper from your local town paper to the majors. Do that and we will END the manipulation of the gold market, now hidden from view via the MISUSE of National Asset, unknowingly, by Central Banks who have been hoodwinked by the ROGUE SUBSIDIARIES of major international investment and commercial banks.



This is a call to action. Don’t just take a beating and walk away. Get MAD & get even and simultaneously do the world a favor.



The following are those to whom the letter must go:



SEC Chairman Harvey L. Pitt

Email – [e-mail]



US Bankruptcy Judge Arthur Gonzales

New York Federal Bankruptcy Court

One Bowling Green Plaza

New York City, NY 10004-1408



Attorney General Elliot Spitzer

C/o The Capital

Albany, New York 12224-0341

Phone [phone]



Senator Carl Levin

SR-269, Russell Senate Office Building

US Senate

Washington DC 20510

phone [phone]

Fax [phone]

[Blecheuro]

Posting 1643

Wollte in diesem Board eigentlich nicht mehr schreiben, doch juckt es mir inden Fingern!

Stammt der Bericht von Dottore vom 01. April 2002?

Wenn nicht, käönnte das mit der Golddeckung natürlich funktionieren.

Aber Ihr soltet alle bedenken:

Dann wird es keinen Euro und keinen Dollar mehr geben, sonderrn eine neue Währung, die mit Gold hinterlegt wäre.

Das halte ich durchaus für möglich.

Was geschieht aber in der Zwischenzeit beispielsweise mit Euren Blecheuros?

Euer
Blecheuro

[Blecheuro]

Korrigiere, ich meinet in diesem Thread!

[Seza]

bez. des "neuen" Gold-Standards zwei Anmerkungen.

ich habe noch nie feststellen können, dass "die da oben", in diesem Falle die G8 besonders helle sind und schon gar nicht
dass die in heller Panik vor einer grossen Krise sind und proaktiv tätig werden wollen. Bin mir ziemlich sicher, die
glaben den Quatsch, den sie uns auftischen.
Die Herrschaften lieben es doch, ihre Unfähigkeit zu demonstrieren, NACHDEM es zu spät ist.

zweitens, ist das lediglich eine sinngemässe Wiedergabe
eines sog vertraulichen Papiers von einem sog. Insider
an den Herrn dottore, vielen hier sicherlich besser bekannt
als Paul C. Martin.
Und dieser Herr erwartet täglich den Weltuntergang. Das sollte man vielleicht auch noch dazu sagen.

Also, es mag ja irgendwo etwas Wahres dran sein,
aber ich bin da skeptisch.

[Blecheuro]

Habe soeben gehört, daß es sich bei Dottore um Paul handeln soll. Paul wird sich an mich nicht mehr erinnern, lernte ihn vor ca. 25 Jahren in München auf einem Kongress kennen. Hatte kürzlich noch ein Bild von uns in der Hand. Dennoch, Paul liegt auf Sicht richtig! Schon nor mehr als 10 Jahren schrieb er, daß der Point of no Retourn erreicht ist. Damit hat er Recht. Doch ob Paul und ich den Knall noch erleben, weiß ich nicht. Aber ich halte es für Wahrscheinlich, wenn wir das stat. Alter eines Mannes erreichen. Den Knall kann es aber auch schon morgen geben. Auch das mit dem freshly printed money hatte Paul schon erkannt, als noch weniger Pädagogen und Superstars wie Scharping in Bonn oder jetzt Berlin saßen. Paul wäre auch ein Mann für die Politik gewesen! Solche Leute werden aber nur in der Politik erscheinen, wenn man sie dafür bezahlt und sie nicht auf Kleidergeld angewiesen sind.

[franzfinanz]

Neuer Goldstandard in Sicht.

Das ist In der Tat ziemlich wirr und unlogisch,

1. Was Politiker in die Hand nehmen geht schon mal sowieso schief.

2. So einen Pool würde es bald zerquetschen,die Schmuckindustrie würde einen neuen Boom erleben,die private Nachfrage ist ohnehin schon höher als die Jahresproduktion,wenn ich das richtig verstanden habe wird dabei die Produktion sinken und die Minen bekommen dafür auch noch Geld.

3. Bei dem wirtschaftlichen Umfeld,wo Gold eher gesucht ist,das bestehende Goldkartell schlägt sowieso schon wild umsich und wird bald Geschichte sein,Brasilien ist am wegkippen,Mexiko ist das nächste Land,in Amerika steht eine Immobilienkrise bevor...................

Fazit: Ich glaube kaum das die Banken ihre Goldbestände so zum Fenster rausschmeißen,die werden es noch als Sicherheit brauchen um überhaupt den Geschäftsbetrieb aufrecht erhalten zu können.

Good Luck!!!

[investival]

@Thaiguru / #1643,

jetzt müßtest Du ja Gold-Bear werden... Aber die Antworten zu diesem Posting in o.g. Quelle machen das wohl zunichte, *g*

... Wie das ausgeschaukelt werden soll, habe ich nicht enträtseln können. ...
Was die sich dabei denken, weiß ich nicht ...


... Umstellungen bei den öffentlichen Anleihen ins Auge gefasst, von denen man erwartet, dass sie als "gold covered" einen deutlichen Zinsabschlag erhalten ...
- Jaja... wenn Gold auf 44 tatsächlich "unattraktiv" gemacht wird und jede Fantasie restriktiv unterbunden wäre... *kopfschuettel*

Mehr derzeit nicht in Erfahrung zu bringen
- Was denn auch noch?

Vermutlich ist das Ganze so wirr und kompliziert
`Vermutlich`? Es IST...

Ob die aktuelle fast fallbeilartige Entwicklung bei Gold und Minen damit in Zusammenhang gebracht werden könnte, was nicht unlogisch wäre
*g* - Wann war Börse denn mal logisch? Btw: POG 275-330-303, GFI 5-17-9 = `Fallbeil`?

Als Zeitrahmen sind 20/25 Jahre in der Diskussion.
Also, wenn wirklich mal sowas in dieser Richtung ausgebrütet werden würde (für unmöglich halte ich das allerdings nicht), käme dies einer Revolution im Währungssystem mit einem reichlich unsicheren Ausgang gleich. Man stelle sich vor, dann beginnt das große Gold-Sparen, *g*

"Scherz" beiseite: Bisher haben sich knappe oder künstlich verknappte Assets in der Menschheitsgeschichte im Preis a la longue IMMER nach oben entwickelt. Das wird wohl nicht anders, weil sich ein paar Leute das anders vorstellen, - zumal sie die aktuelle Krise, zumindest z.T., gehörig mitverantworten zu haben.

Sowas voranzubringen, hat imo erst dann - vielleicht, dann müßte man mal intensiver nachdenken - Sinn, wenn den Verursachern bzw. Gründen der jetzigen Papierwert-Krise das Handwerk gelegt wird. Vorher kann noch so viel herumgedoktert werden - es bringt nicht das nötige Vertrauen in Papierwerte zurück. Und da steht das Verschuldungsproblem vornean, und da kann man, Gold betreffend, genausogut (und imo mit besserer Argumentationskraft) die gegenteilige Theorie propagieren.

Im übrigen haben es `Insiderinformationen` so an sich, als Kontraindikatoren zu taugen - zumal, wenn sie in diversen Internet-Foren kursieren.

investival, so long

[jeffery2]

Superspannend die Geschichte vom geheimnisvollen Denker.
Also 400 Millionen Menschen bekommen eine Golddeckung von gerademal 13000 tons. Wieviel für jeden? Die "Starterkits" verschwinden sofort auf nimmerwiedersehen. Jetzt weiss ja jeder was Geld ist. 45 $ dafür kann keiner das Zeug aus der Erde kratzen. Die Minen sind sofort pleite und der Bedarf kann sich zukünftig bei den ZB decken. Guten Tag ich bin der Goldschmied, ich hätte gern mal xxxkg für das Weihnachtsgeschäft. Das Defizit ist jetzt schon mind. 1000 tons jährlich, das wurde ja schon von den ZB-Subventioniert, darum haben die ja auch nicht mehr soviel davon und rücken mit der Sprache nicht heraus wieviel sie denn wirklich haben.
Japan, Russland, China, Taiwan, Kanada, Australien, Südamerika, die ganz armen Hunde lassen wir einfach mal weg. Was machen die?
Die Arschl... wollten so tolle Gesetze machen, damit die LTCC Pleite sich nicht wiederholt. Jetzt bietet dir jeder Piesepampel auf der Bank Hedgefunds zur Abrundung deiner Anlage an. So, so.
Wenn wir am Rande eines Kollapses standen wegen der Glücksritter vor vorgenannten, dann brennt der Arsch er richtig wenn JPM auf die Schnauze fällt. Darum geistern jetzt solche Storys herum, Gold geht auf 45 $, das hat die Welt vor 40 Jahren nicht geglaubt und der Gaulle hats vorgemacht was er davon denkt.
Übrigens, Golddeckung, wo bekommt dann PistolenSchorsch die Millarden für son fixen Krieg her.
Also wenn soetwas laut wird, wie von Schuldenpaule angesprochen oder weitergegeben, dann weiss auch Tante Erna, die Regierungen können nicht mit Geld umgehen, also der Uropa hatte doch recht......Gold und Silber.......
Spannend, spannend.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

@investival

ThaiGuru und Gold Bear = Unmöglich!!!

Habe dieses "Gerücht?" G8 Gold Papier Posting, nicht veröffentlicht, weil ich irgend jemanden in diesem Thread, verunsichern wollte, sondern im Gegenteil darauf aufmerksam machen wollen, dass die G8 Länder, falls dieses Papier denn wirklich auch existieren würde, sehr wohl an Gold glauben.

Ja sie glauben in diesem "angeblich" vorhandenen Papier, so stark an Gold, dass sie mit Gold, die Rettung unseres maroden, ins trudeln geratenen Finazsysten versuchen wollen.

Also nix da mit: Gold hat keine Zukunft!

Das mit Goldpreis auf 45.- Dollar runter, brauchen wir hier gar nicht zu diskutieren, weil das nicht nur ganz unmöglich wäre, sondern unter den heutigen fundamentalen Veraussetzungen bei den physischen Goldmärktenauch, auch einen Witz darstellt!

Falls es dieses G8 Papier so wirklich geben sollte, was ich auch nicht ganz ausschliessen will, würde durch die bekanngabe dieser hirnverbrannten Idee: Gold auf 45.- Dollar pro Unze, verstaatlichung der Goldminen weltweit, etc., ein unbeschreiblicher Run auf`s Gold ausgelöst, der sich wohl dadurch eher in die richtige Richtung bewegen würde, nähmlich stark nach oben.

Doch nach oben, wird der Goldpreis auch ohne dieses angebliche G8 Gold Papier bald wieder steigen.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?cli…

Leaked mining charter stirs up troubled market waters

Sherilee Bridge and Frank Nxumalo

July 28 2002 at 07:32AM

Johannesburg - Investors, panicked by the leaking of the government`s draft empowerment charter for the mining industry, abandoned mining stocks on Friday raising fears of further carnage next week as international markets digest the plan to prevent white mine ownership of new mines.

Mine bosses called the draft empowerment charter "malicious", "unacceptable" and "effective nationalisation" and left emerging mining companies wondering where they would get the money to turn a political dream into reality.

The proposals revealed that the government`s vision was to have all new mining operations in black control within a decade.

The document said mining companies must ensure that their black economic empowerment partners had at least a 51 percent equity stake in the operation before they apply for new mining licences.

Those seeking to convert existing licences to new mineral rights would have to surrender at least 30 percent of the venture`s equity to a black economic empowerment partner.

"Should the applicant be unable to find a suitable partner, government should intervene through vehicles such as the Industrial Development Corporation and Development
Bank, so that such shares can be warehoused within these organisations," the draft charter read.

John Meyer, a resources analyst at SG Equities Research in London, said while there were still no details, the news was enough to send investors running for the hills.

Gold shares dived. AngloGold and Gold Fields closed 10 percent lower on the day. Harmony Gold Mining fell 16 percent and Durban Roodepoort Deep 18 percent in late Friday trade. While the lower gold price of $304.95 an ounce would have had a hand in the falls, sharper loses were recorded after 3pm when the market was abuzz with the news of the charter`s contents.

The past two weeks have been marred by huge questions over the structure of black empowerment deals and the extent to which the government could standardise these deals through the charter.

The mining industry charter was expected to kick in December, when the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill is enacted.

Meyer said the bulk of the London investing community had been left wondering how long it would be until existing mining assets would have to comply with the 51 percent empowerment quota.

There was no indication of whether mining companies would receive compensation for the assets transferred to empowerment groups.

"Despite the government saying this is just the first draft, share prices will continue to fall until the South African government applies itself," Meyer said.

Junior miners agreed that the proposed minimum ownership levels had to tempered with realism.

Tiego Moseneke, the chairperson of the New Diamond Corporation (NDC), said: "We must get the buy-in of all the major players in the mining industry so that they understand the need to re-stimulate new economic activity and avoid having them obstruct the government`s transformation plans."

But still some industry commentators labelled the proposal as "creeping nationalisation".

Dawie Roodt, an economist at PLJ Financial Services, said it was irresponsible of the government to prescribe these things until they were properly structured.

"This kind of thing just feeds the world`s perceptions of Africa as the hopeless continent. Obviously we have to do something about the ways of the past but government must be extremely careful," cautioned Roodt.

"Soon it may not pay to be in the mining industry," said Roodt.

[aldibroker]

Die psychologisch starken Stimmungsschwankungen beim Gold und Silber:

Wer nach attraktiven Investments sucht, sollte antizyklisch investieren und sich die wiederkehrenden Stimmungstiefst im Verhältnis zu den Euphoriekursen der letzten Jahre/Monate ansehen. Pro zyklisch lohnt es noch am Anfang eines Trends. Jeder Markt hat so seine Eigenheiten und Schwankungsbreite, aber das was sich zur Zeit wieder beim Gold und XAU (HUI) abspielt ist schon abenteuerlich.

Vor wenigen Tagen wurden hier noch Goldpreise von 350$, 400$ oder gar 800$ gesehen. Einige träumten vom neuen goldgedeckten Währungsstandard zur Überwindung der Finanzkrise und sahen Kurse von mehreren zehntausend Dollar. Engstirnig wie man war, knüpfte man alle Hoffnungen deshalb eben auf diesen Zusammenbruch und baute noch allerlei Kriegs- und Hyperinflationsszenen mit ein. Nichts konnte den Glauben an höhere Kurse erschüttern....

Was ist in den letzten Tagen passiert, dass die Welt nun auch für Goldbugs untergeht, wo das gelbe Metall eben noch hochpoliert glänzte, wurden einige zu stark geblendet?

Nun müssen schon Regenfälle in Indien oder Vietnam dafür herhalten, dass die asiatische Nachfrage sinken wird, wo gerade erst die Japaner als große Käufer genannt wurden. Oder der Goldstandard bringt nun keine stark steigenden, sondern staatlich reglementierte extrem niedrige Preise von 45$ aus vermeintlichen G8-Fantasiepapieren hervor. Die Angst vor Inflation wird abgelöst durch Deflationsängste und das frühere fiat money wird nun zu wertvollem Bargeld erklärt, das am besten wie zu Oma´s Zeiten unter dem Kopfkissen sicherer liegt, als auf der Bank. Sind wir denn nun nur noch neurotisch oder ist es ein neuer Trick, um die Krise nicht nur herbei zu reden, sondern auch herbei zu handeln? Gesetze, die noch bei steigenden Kursen positiv für Wachstum, Vollbeschäftigung, Haushaltskonsolidierung und Gleichberechtigung diskutiert und auf den Weg gebracht wurden, werden nachdem die Kurse gefallen sind, so umdefiniert, dass eine neue schwarze Gefahr für die Minen in Südafrika heraufbeschworen wird...

Ich will die Liste der vermeintlich so guten fundamentalen Erklärungen abkürzen, denn sie sind teilweise nur Stimmungsmache in die eine oder andere Richtung und verschaffen auch hier im Board durchsichtigen Stimmungsmachern noch günstigere Ein- oder Ausstiegskurse. Können wir sicher sein, dass die Meinungen in einigen Monaten nicht wieder völlig anders sind? Nein, denn dieses Spiel wiederholt sich in fast gleich stark schwankenden Kursen seit Jahrzehnten im Goldsektor immer wieder. Wer darauf herein fällt, wird fast immer um ca. 30 bis 50% seines Einsatzes gebracht. Wer sich aber nur einmal den Spaß macht und die jährlichen Höchst- und Tiefstkurse im XAU längerfristig ansieht, entdeckt Erstaunliches.

Wir hatten beginnend im Jahre 1984 im XAU Indexstände von rund 70 bis 130, selbst in schwankungsarmen Jahren sind wir immer so in der Range 60/70 bis 90/100 hin- und her gependelt. Keiner soll glauben, dass wir nicht auch in 2-3 Jahreszyklen wieder an die 130, 140, ja sogar bis an die 150 oder 160 herangekommen sind. Natürlich um dennoch wieder im gleichen Jahre auf 70 oder 80 anzustürzen. Was ist also neu an dem, was dieser Tage passiert und welche Lehren ziehen wir daraus? Lasst Euch jetzt nicht mehr melken, sondern nutzt die Schwankungen richtig!

Wenn es sehr dumm läuft, sehen wir wieder alte Mehrjahrestiefstkurse im XAU um die 40. Dafür müsste aber auch der Goldpreis wieder unter 250$ rutschen, die Minen trotz fallender Goldnotierungen weiter Hedges abbauen, die Produktionskosten der Minen im Deflationsszenario inflatorisch steigen, die Produktion weiter ausgeweitet werden, die Japaner Sicherheit in ihre Bankeinlagen bekommen, Amerikaner wieder an eine stabile Währung glauben, .....

Also sehr viel Unlogisches müsste sich zu einem negativen Gesamteffekt kumulieren, damit das Szenario Goldpreis 200$ wellentechnisch eintritt und auch die Minen nicht nur temporär belastet.

Fragen wir uns ferner, ob es schon in der Vergangenheit Irrtümer zur Goldpreiseinschätzung gab und ob diese mit dem heutigen Tage schlagartig abgestellt sind. Ziemlich sicher werden wir alle keine Wahrsager sein, obwohl ja auch diese schon aus Indien bemüht werden, um den zukünftigen Goldpreis zu bestimmen. Auch wenn ich nicht wahrsagen kann, wage ich die leicht nachvollziehbare Prognose, dass wir nach diesen sehr kräftigen Rücksetzer von 90 in die Zone 50 bis 60 wohl eher wieder Steigerungspotential gewonnen haben, als weitere crashartige Verluste in Kauf nehmen müssen.

Noch ist die Stimmung schlecht und die Kurse haben weiter technisch leichte Rutschgefahr, wer aber diese Zeit nicht nutzt, wird es wie in jedem Jahr bereuen, wieder nicht die Chance zur rechten Zeit genutzt zu haben. Jene, die ganz oben eingestiegen sind und ohne Stops noch heute verharren, werden sich endlich einmal überlegen müssen, ob sie das jährliche Spiel kaufe sehr teuer in der Euphorie und verkaufe nur in der größten Panik bei nüchterner Analyse jetzt noch einmal durchziehen wollen.

Gruss Aldi

Hier noch runde ca. Werte für die letzten Jahre im XAU

Jahr Max Min
1984 135 70
1985 100 70
1986 100 60
1987 160 70
1988 110 80
1989 130 80
1990 140 80
1991 100 70
1992 90 60
1993 140 60
1994 140 100
1995 130 100
1996 150 110
1997 120 60
1998 100 50
1999 100 60
2000 70 40
2001 70 40
2002 90 50

[kaepntnemo]

#1643ff
zum papier des `geheimnisvollen denkers` gibts unklare verbindungen zu andeutungen aus einem pamphlet von al martin
allerdings nicht auf $45-basis, sondern way up...
<zitat>
Why do you think the Smart Republican Money IS shorting the market and IS using that money to buy gold?

Why do you think records indicate that Smart Republicans have even begun selling their private homes-if they`re worth two to five million dollars in this country? They`re gradually and quietly moving everything out of the United States and putting everything into gold and getting themselves in the Cayman Islands where they can be completely isolated from the rest of the events in the world.

There are even whispers in Washington that the administration has secretly told the Treasury Department to begin to prepare for the Emergency Economic Collapse Protocols. This would entail a partial repudiation of US debt. After that, everything would then effectively collapse. This has always been a state secret unbeknownst to most people.

The United States holds approximately the same amount of gold bullion (and it tinkers very little with that amount) -- eleven billion ounces of gold. When you add that eleven billion of ounces which it has on hand and about a billion ounces of gold, which could be recovered from industrial uses, the United States would be able to print a limited series of US currency as gold-backed notes. This currency would circulate only in the United States. It would not circulate anywhere else. It would be an internal currency only. It would be meant to keep the nation operating in a post-economic collapse environment.

In other words, you would still need currency, a form of currency which people still had faith in, because faith in all Federal Reserve notes would be gone. That would be history. They wouldn`t be worth anything.

This is part of the actual protocol. The United States would instantly demonetize US banknotes held outside of the United States, money held in physical form. The Treasury Department would certify these banknotes as demonetized and no longer of any value. As a matter of fact, at that time, they become even illegal to possess.
</zitat>
wurde auch schon im ELLI-Forum ventiliert...
der komplette artikel:
http://www.almartinraw.com/column64.html
is das alles plot within the plot oder einfach nur bullshit?
jede/r moege sich sein/ihr teil denken.

halali
nemo

[ThaiGuru]

Aus "The King Report"
Montag, 29. July 2002

M. Ramsey King Securities Inc.

... We`ve been waiting for the inevitable shakeout in gold that normally occurs in nascent bull markets after the first strong rally. This occurred in 1984 for stocks. Gold
and gold shares peaked in June, about a month after cyclical stocks. In June, copper and industrial commodities started a collapse that continues to this day. Gold fell in
concert. When JPM and Citigroup concern threatened to go nuclear, gold was hammered, giving JPM relief from its purported onerous gold derivative book. Of course that
coincided with the dollar rally.

Contributing to gold`s decline last week is forced hedge
fund selling. Hedge funds that are hemorrhaging from picking too many stock bottoms the past few months are now selling winning positions such as gold, euros, etc. This is very common during unexpected moves, and is a cardinal mistake -- selling winners to support losers.

Gold should fall to, and probably below, $300 in the near future. But as we opined weeks ago, after whatever summer
rally occurs, autumn will bring renewed and intensified concerns about the economy and the rumored Iraq excursion. Enjoy the summer respite; unfortunately it will be brief.

-END-

[ThaiGuru]

How the Ordinary Gold Advocate can BEAT the
Big Guys

The Battle of the Titans meets its Match

James E. Sinclair & Harry D. Schultz


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/schultz072902.html

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_638775.html?menu=

Lihir Gold H1 net profit 4.2 million aud vs 21.0 million

Lihir Gold Ltd said its six months to June net profit fell 80% to 4.2 million aud with the company`s earnings impacted by an unscheduled first-quarter production shutdown.

Lihir Gold six months to June results:

Sales - 109.1 million aud vs 116.2 million

Pretax profit - 20.7 million aud vs 21.0 million

Net profit - 4.2 million vs 21.0 million

EPS - 0.4 cents vs 1.8

Interim div - nil, unchanged

© AFX News

Story filed: 00:34 Monday 29th July 2002

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1139941-609…

Plan for black quotas in mining causes rumblings

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Industry representatives say overseas investments may take a knock

Resources Correspondent

NEW mining projects and overseas investments in SA would take a knock if a proposal to boost empowerment ownership to 51% in new mining ventures was implemented, industry representatives said at the weekend.

Much of the debate concerning grievances about the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Bill has focused on the lack of specific guidelines concerning what stake of mining ventures, existing and proposed, would have to be held by empowerment parties.

The mining industry empowerment charter, which was recently distributed to mining companies and leaked last week, was drawn up to give both a clear definition of empowerment within the context of the new bill and present a clearer indication of the equity stake companies would be obliged to cede to empowerment partners.

The proposed charter appears to do just that, but for many in the industry the expectations for empowerment shareholdings is too high.

"Aspects of the draft charter are not feasible and are unacceptable. However, as confirmed today by the department of minerals and energy affairs spokesman, Mr Mngomezulu, the document is the government`s first position` which is being submitted for discussion` with the industry in the clear expectation that it will be adapted overtime," said Anglo American in a statement on Friday.

When news of the proposals hit the market billions of rands where wiped off the valuations of SA`s top mining companies, showing investors` fear about the potential effect on company valuations if such measures became the benchmark for empowerment .

At one point on Friday Anglo American had tumbled 12%, and by market close R45,1bn had been wiped off the FTSE/JSE Africa Resources index , which includes Anglo and 19 other resources companies. SA`s top six gold companies saw R16,5bn disappear from their combined values and the platinum index saw R5,1bn erased from the market value of SA`s platinum producers.

"When you see the comment that empowerment has to hold a stake of 26% to 30% in ongoing operations people get worried," said Roger Chaplin, a mining analyst at Canaccord Capital in London.

He said that overseas investors were watching developments closely.

"Most investors can live with the fact that mineral rights rest with the government and a level of black empowerment if it is sold at a fair price, but if it comes to a 51% stake that spooks international investors," said Chaplin.

The charter suggests that "government and industry undertake to negotiate the transfer of ownership of at least 51% of mining industry assets to historically disadvantaged South Africans within the next ten years".

It also suggests that in order to secure a new mining licence or secure a mining licence when old rights are converted to new, the mining company or party applying for the licence would be obliged to have an empowerment partner with at least 30% equity stake in the existing operations. For new operations the empowerment stake has to be 51%.

Several industry players said the proposed empowerment stake holdings in the sector had come as a shock as levels these high had not been discussed previously. "One thing the minister and cabinet have said at every point was that nothing will be done that would destabilise the industry, this has destabilised the industry through naivety and a lack or realism.

"It has shaken markets and they are selling SA stocks and stocks with exposure to SA," said an SA mining analyst.

Comment: Page 11
Jul 29 2002 12:00:00:000AM Julie Bain Business Day 1st Edition

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mbendi.co.za/a_sndmsg/news_view.asp?P=0&PG=11&I=3…

Harmony Gold accepts Placer Dome`s offer for its interest in AurionGold

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited ("Harmony") is pleased to announce that it has agreed to accept Placer Dome`s increased, final and unconditional offer for all of its 43,350,992 shares (9.8% interest) in AurionGold.

Bernard Swanepoel, Chief Executive of Harmony, said: "The Placer Dome offer is logical and adds value for AurionGold shareholders. In our view, the terms of Placer Dome`s offer are attractive and represent fair value for AurionGold. We believe that the revised offer is substantially above the price at which AurionGold would trade in the absence of the offer or if the Placer offer did not proceed. We look forward to becoming a Placer Dome shareholder and expect its price to reflect the benefits of the acquisition of AurionGold."

For further details contact: Bernard Swanepoel on [phone] or Ferdi Dippenaar on [phone] or Ted Grobicki on [phone].

Contact: Corne Bobbert, Tel [phone], Mobile [phone].

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1140285-607…



Gold seen between $300-330/oz

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The dollar gold price is likely to trade between 300 and 330 a troy ounce over the next three months, bullion analysts and traders have told I-Net Bridge.
"I think we have seen gold`s highs for the moment and the metal is going to struggle to break through 330/oz again. I see 300 as a good level of support for bullion," a gold analyst in London said.

Gold achieved a five-year high of 331.25/oz on 3 June 2002 and was trading at 302.50/oz this morning.

"At 330 represents gold`s high water mark," CRU International precious metals analyst in London, Neil Hawkes, said.

"In the absence of any clear signals and an economic recovery in the US gold is going to benefit in the medium term. Over the past few days there has been some speculative driven profit taking. However, on the downside, gold is unlikely to break below 300/oz," Neil Hawkes, said.

"Given the summer holidays, many players in London, New York and Europe are away. So over the next few weeks up to September there is going to be little to push gold prices either way," Hawkes added.

Solid resistance has developed around about 320/oz while good support has been found at 300/oz, traders said.

At present, the bullion industry`s consolidation as well as the unwinding of miners’ hedge books is supporting gold.

The decrease in the amount of hedging by gold miners has established a higher base for gold, an analyst said.

A recent watershed event in the battle in the gold industry between hedging and non-hedging was the trouncing in early 2002 of South African miner and hedger Anglogold`s bid for Australia`s Normandy by US gold miner Newmont Mining, a non-hedger.

Newmont`s win in the battle for Normandy gave theUS miner the mantle of the world`s largest gold producer, which Anglogold had held, and leadership in the global gold mining industry.

Other supporting factors include the weakness in global equities, the slowdown in the US economy as well as the collapse in confidence in US accounting following the events like the scandal surrounding US energy trade Enron and the bankruptcy of telecommunications group WorldCom.

Another key factor for gold is the US dollar weakness against global currencies like the euro and the yen and producer currencies like the rand and the Australian dollar.

I-Net Bridge

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mbendi.co.za/a_sndmsg/news_view.asp?P=0&PG=11&I=3…

South Africa`s new stance on empowerment in mining sector

It has been reported that the South African government aims to give black business 51% ownership of all new mines within 10 years. Tradek economist Mike Schussler has suggested that it might be wiser, given the problems of access to capital, for the government to start by aiming for the empowerment of 25% of the sector and progressively
increasing the target over time.

It is expected that onerous empowerment legislation would damage the country`s chances of achieving its growth targets and could deter foreign direct investment.[/b

[ThaiGuru]

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/analysis/story/0,1870,13443…

JULY 29, 2002 MON

Threat of double-dip recession in US very real

LUCRUM

By LIM SAY BOON


THE recent sharp falls in global equity markets have presented economic policy-makers everywhere with stark choices: They can throw everything they have left into reflating their economies and deal with inflationary problems later down the line - if they emerge. Or they can maintain the present course and brave the growing risks of a deflationary spiral triggered by the financial markets.

In particular, United States policy-makers are staring into the abyss. Over the week ending last Thursday, the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index had fallen some 5 per cent. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq giving up nearly 9 per cent.

But as painful and dramatic as the past week has been, it doesn`t tell the full story of the damage being done by the stock market to the real economy in the US.

Over the past three months, owners of US stocks have been dying the death of a thousand cuts. Whipping back and forth to lower lows, the S&P500 has lost some 25 per cent of its value; the Nasdaq has given up over 30 per cent; and the Dow over 20 per cent.

The loss in shareholder wealth on the S&P500 in just three months totalled some US$2.6 trillion (S$4.5 trillion). That amounts to about a quarter of the US gross domestic product (GDP), or nearly 20 times Singapore`s annual GDP.

There is now a very real danger of the US economy falling into a double-dip recession from the devastation of household net assets from the stock markets alone.

Stock markets are said to be good leading indicators of the real economy, often predicting trends some six months down the line.

But in the case of what is happening in the US today, it may not matter much whether the markets are prophetic or not; the `prophecy` is likely to prove self-fulfilling anyway.

The decline in the share prices is likely to destroy the only leg left of this already-lame economic recovery and consumer spending.

Optimists may argue that the current bear market from the peak of early 2000 has already exceeded the bear of 1973-74 in duration, and has already matched the percentage decline at around 48 per cent - and that we may be about to see a trend reversal.

But as I had written previously, the greenback and US equities appear to have passed their secular peaks. The massive losses we have been seeing on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500 over the past week are part of this long-term, secular decline in both the greenback and US equities.

Yes, earlier this month, the markets looked as if they would stage a technical rebound on oversold conditions.

Indeed, the markets are even more oversold today. But they can remain oversold for quite some time to come before staging a rebound.

We have seen sharp spikes in the volatility indicators for the S&P500. These spikes had previously coincided with quite significant rallies. But investors should be wary of the durability of such rallies.

Given the sick fundamentals, it may turn out another bear-market rally - like the one after the lows of Sept 21 turned out to be. So, rather than indulge in that `extreme sport` of bottom-calling, it may be more useful to read what the markets are signalling.

Right now, the markets are signalling their concern about a host of negatives; the markets are telling us they do not like what`s going on.

The US markets are still suffering considerable overvaluation by historic standards. Consider this: US corporate profits are back to levels seen in 1996, but share prices are still some 25 per cent higher.

And before we have had a chance to correct that overvaluation problem properly, the economic recovery has started levelling out. That means there`s not going to be enough momentum to drive corporate America back to strong earnings growth to lower stock valuations further.

Assuming stagnant - or worse, shrinking - profitability, the other way to reduce share valuations is for prices to fall further. Mind you, all this is before we consider the impact of the widening accounting scandal on earnings.

Investors can`t even trust what little earnings there are to compensate them for the high stock prices. Skeletons are falling out of corporate cupboards all over the place.

And then, there are geopolitical risks. All this sabre-rattling around Iraq is making the market nervous - as is the violence in Israel and Palestine and the constant threat of terrorism.

This is not, as New York Stock Exchange chairman Richard Grasso put it last week, `irrational depression`. Indeed, last week, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, when delivering the Monetary Authority of Singapore`s annual lecture, suggested that Wall Street analysts and economists might have been focusing a bit too much on the `positives`.

Indeed, business people were not as sanguine as analysts about future earnings, he cautioned. And insufficient attention was being given to geopolitical risks.

There`s nothing irrational about Mr Rubin, I can assure you. Quite the contrary, investors could be forgiven for suspecting a whiff of panic floating downhill from the White House.

President George W. Bush last week told Americans that `there`s value in the market`.

`People are going to come back into the market. They`re buying value, as opposed to, you know, buying into a bubble,` he said. That was breathtaking stuff.

But, then again, it might be better if US economic policy-makers panicked a little. Indeed, the Federal Reserve can pretty much cast aside its reservations about another rate cut.

The arguments against another rate cut earlier in the year were that the economy should not be over-stimulated; the Fed should not use what precious little ammunition it has left; and another rate cut could panic the markets. Well, the Fed should have heard the news loud and clear in the market indices: The markets have already panicked.

Looking at the lacklustre economic data coming through, you really wouldn`t have to fear `over-stimulating the economy`.

Indeed, in the absence of a return of investment spending, the US economic recovery is essentially a one-trick pony.

That pony`s only trick now is to keep consumers spending. As long as Americans continue to buy and refinance homes, keeping prices afloat in the property sector, consumers can continue to tread water. But if the contagion from the stock market spreads into real estate, you can kiss the only buoyant sector of the US economy goodbye.

Well, perhaps the more accurate word should be `relatively buoyant` - relative to comatose business spending, that is. Sure, figures released last Thursday showed that sales of new homes in the US hit a record last month, with the annualised rate of purchases topping a million units for the first time.

But other indicators point to a wobbly recovery. Figures released that same day showed durable goods orders falling 3.8 per cent last month, when analysts were expecting growth of just under 1 per cent.

Have a look at retail sales: Year-on-year growth has been easing since a spike last October. And consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has been sliding since it peaked in April.

Then, there is the weakening US dollar. Mr Rubin told his audience in Singapore last week that the greenback should not be used as a trade-policy tool. Asked his views on US dollar policy, he strongly supported a strong greenback. While he acknowledged the problem of the US current-account deficit, he argued that it would be better adjusted through higher savings and productivity growth.

One major consideration for Mr Rubin was confidence in the US asset market. That will limit the amount of stimulation of exports and offshore corporate earnings the government can expect from a weaker dollar. Too large a fall in the US dollar means a massive exodus of funds from the US - causing severe dislocation not just to the US but also to the rest of the world.

So what`s left in the US government`s economic ammunition belt?

If equity markets continue falling, I suspect the Fed may have to start spending the little ammunition left in the form of rate cuts - and as early as its next meeting next month - and hope for the best.

Outside the US, there are no pillars of strength to drive a global recovery. Certainly, it is not going to come from the bad debt-laden Japanese economy or the structurally-rigid Europeans.

A double-dip recession in the US means a double-dip recession for the world. Governments everywhere may want to consider what they can do to cushion their own economies from such a possibility - even if that means tolerating near-term inflation.

The beast they face right now is not inflation - it is the threat of renewed global recession.

The writer is director of OCBC Investment Research. The views expressed in this article are his own. He contributed this article to The Straits Times.

[ThaiGuru]

Kennt jemand diesen Mann??

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/harris/harris072902.html

What really happened to gold?

Craig Harris
Harris Capital Management, Inc. CTA
Jul 29, 2002

People around the world are scratching their heads trying to figure out what happened to gold last week. During a week when most people would have expected strong gains in gold, it crashed.

I`m going to offer an explanation in the essay below.

I`m going to pretend I`m Alan Greenspan.



I`m concerned about the possibility of a global market meltdown. I have an economy that seemed to be doing well, but it was doing "well" in the midst of the biggest investment mania in history. I know bubbles burst much more quickly than they are created, and with more of the American public participating in the equity markets than ever before, I have to prevent panic. I have created an environment where my currency no longer has intrinsic value. I rely on trust and confidence to keep the system working. If I lose the trust and confidence, so goes the system. In an era where there is competitive devaluation of the worlds currencies, I can`t let people figure out that if these currencies are in a competitive devaluation war, that they must be being devalued against real things. I want to assure the investing public that there is no reason to panic.

I want to prevent them from taking more money out of the equity and financial markets. With all the global markets going down together, I want the USD to go up. I want the US stock market to go up. I want to keep long term interest rates down. I want to create the illusion that everything is ok while I figure out how to get us out of this mess. I don`t want money to leave my realm. I want to drive it into the US treasury market to create the illusion that is the only safe haven. I want to make sure that the big money center banks don`t have trouble.

I`m particularly concerned about banks with large derivative positions. What am I going to do? First, I`m going to let you get inside my head. I`m going to do that by encouraging you to read an essay I wrote way back in 1966. It`s important you read it, because until you do, you won`t have enough background to understand the complexity of my scheme.

Gold and Economic Freedom, by Alan Greenspan
http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

Now, I`m going to tell you what I`m going to do to restore order, to prevent panic, and to eliminate any viable alternatives for the storage of wealth besides the fiat paper markets I have created. What am I going to do? Actually, if you read my essay you probably already know what I`m going to do. Simple... I`m going to sell gold, and I`m going to sell it until the price is where I want it. Through the derivatives market, I can sell as much of it as I want, and by using agents like the big money center banks to do my dirty work, no one will even suspect that I`m behind it. I have 7 other countries all willing to do the same thing if I need their help.

Even if I`m selling gold I don`t own, it won`t matter... it won`t matter unless more buyers want the real thing than I have of the real thing to deliver. If that happens, then I`m in trouble... deep trouble. So, I will keep it where I need it at all costs. It`s my number one priority because if gold takes off, people will panic. they will lose faith in my fiat money system. They will take their money out of my banks. Long term interest rates will go higher as capital flees the once-perceived safety of my bonds, the USD will go lower as capital flies out of my paper asset markets.

They will liquidate their equity holdings. they may begin to question the creditworthiness of my Treasury notes and bonds... so I won`t let that happen. While I`m selling gold, I`m having an agent execute program buys in the DJ. I`m also buying S&P futures. I want to give the market what the participants want to see. I want to create a bottom... At least the illusion of one.



anyway, I hope that story helps... it`s all pure speculation on my part, but informed speculation. It`s the only way.... the only way I can explain what happened last week. I`ll tell you something else... If I was Alan Greenspan and I got myself into this predicament, I`d be doing exactly the same things. I also have to say that if I was Alan Greenspan I wouldn`t have gotten into this predicament because I wouldn`t have let the bubble build to such extreme levels.

I would have let gold run up in the late 90`s to kill the bull before it became manic. Will it work? Well, look at Japan. Intervention hasn`t worked there. The basic number one most fundamental problem is that the value isn`t there. If stocks were reasonably valued here I`d say with conviction that a bottom could be created. The problem however is that as the bubble bursts... it`s not going to end until value appears. That`s my big problem. We have serious strains developing in the financial system, and an equity market that could still be as much as 50% overvalued depending on who you talk to.

So, I didn`t sell any gold on Friday. I didn`t sell because this is my long term insurance policy.

If gold starts going through the roof, it`s a really bad sign because it means that Mr. G has failed. The position isn`t big enough for me to worry about one day moves or one week moves. I`m in this for the long haul. I`ll sell some when it gets to Alan`s danger zone level, and I`ll buy back into selloffs. I didn`t buy either... I didn`t buy because I don`t know how low they`re going to take this market. I thought 314 was a good buy. I want to wait and see for a few sessions. I don`t think they want to make it go too low, because then people are going to start talking about deflation... that`s bad.

The problem is that when a market gets whacked like gold and silver has in the past few sessions, it can spawn technically-based selling that takes the market lower than you want it to be. I think the financial engineers are happy with gold around current levels, but that doesn`t mean it can`t continue lower. While most people are scratching their heads over gold`s action in the last few weeks, I think they`re mostly ignorant... like children trying to understand particle physics... t least I feel like I have made sense out of it... although I don`t like what I see at all.

I smell desperation.

###

IMPORTANT NOTE: The risk in trading futures contracts can be substantial. If you choose to open an account with Harris Capital Management, a Risk Disclosure will be sent to you. Please read it carefully before you invest.

Craig Harris
July 29, 2002
President
Harris Capital Management, Inc. CTA
http://www.HarrisCapitalManagement.com
[e-mail]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/kaplan07_29_02.html

Precious Metals Report

Leonard Kaplan
Prospector Asset Management

For markets of Monday July 29th

GENERAL COMMENTS:

In probably the most stunning example of complete irrationality that I have seen in many years, the gold and silver markets were absolutely destroyed last week. From its high on Monday, to its low on Friday, gold prices fell by 8%, and silver prices fared even worse, falling in excess of 10%. It was the steepest sell off in gold in almost 3 years, for no apparent reason. Some of the aberrant anomalies are:

Historically, there is about a 92% negative correlation between the price of gold and the general stock indices. Last week, the S&Ps were up about 4%, while the metals were down far in excess of such numbers.
Historically, there is about a 94% correlation between the price of gold and the value of the USD. Last week, the USD gained less than of 1% while the price of gold and silver plummeted.

There was a major correlational disconnect among the precious metals themselves. Platinum and palladium were higher for the week, while gold and silver were flamed.
There was no substantive change in the fundamentals of gold and silver, which may have created a change in investor psychology for the long term. In fact, there was nothing but rather fundamentally bullish news.

All that I imagine, all that I can envision, is that long speculators decided to exit all markets in which they had positions due to the increasing volatility and risk, without a thought or care. Since gold and silver had substantial investor participation, these positions were sold, regardless of what the price was or what the future might bring. Platinum and palladium, markets where investors are of very minor importance, were noticeably unaffected. Irrationality and panic reigned the markets creating losses for any trader who uses experience, rationality, and careful consideration, myself included.

Experienced traders have been trained to ignore emotion, to not give in to the emotions of fear, hope, and greed. Experienced traders are trained to carefully consider the longer-term fundamental trends, to watch historically valid correlations, and to move wisely without panic. They tend to buy rallies and sell dips in the gold market, rather than buying strength and selling weakness. Well, last week was one of those periods where panic and emotion would have fared better than rational thought, where doing the opposite of what traditionally works well would have been rewarding. I have lots more to say on this subject, but there is little sense in beating a dead horse. It hurts too badly and there is little to be gained.

Naturally, such incredibly counter-trend, and counter intelligence moves, give fodder to the conspiracists in the market, who believe that the bear raid in gold was engineered by some supranational entities in order to dissuade investors from buying gold, or for the purpose of aiding the bullion banks, who are seen short thousands and thousands of tons.

Flying over the internet were suppositions that the Fed was selling gold to prop up J.P.Morgan, whose stock fell sharply last week amidst allegations of complicity with obviously criminal undertakings at several U.S. corporations now under investigation. Without the benefit of proof, without the demonstration of fact, I prefer to believe that the markets just went completely irrational. Markets usually make sense, but not always. For those who don`t believe that last statement, just contemplate how completely absurd it was to see the NASDAQ at 5000, just several years ago.

Much of the conspiracy theory and thought is simply a matter of perspective and opinion. Let me hazard an analogy. Picture yourself waking up in the morning, having your breakfast coffee, dressing, and leaving for work. On the way, you notice that 90% of the people that you see are carrying umbrellas. Now, you could believe that an international conspiracy exists among the umbrella manufactures to force compliant souls to carry umbrellas, or you could believe that the local weatherman had predicted rain for that afternoon. You have your choice.

I have been vehemently derided over the past year for my perspective on the socialization, or communism, or theft of private assets by the South African government from the mining industry. Previously, they commandeered formerly owned privately owned assets to where they are now property of the government. Existing mines must receive permits or licenses to mine their former assets and such granting of permits is conditional upon social and economic redresses to the formerly disadvantaged people of South Africa.

It was my belief that such was just the beginning of the trouble coming, and here is the second installment, that which only justifies the first, and clearly denounces the trend. On Friday, a South African ministry said it was considering a proposal that would give black investors control of ALL new mines within a decade. And, any expansion of an existing property would require that the ownership be 30% black. AND NOW THE COUP DE GRACE... should black investors have insufficient funds to invest in the new projects, the government may compel the stakes to be held by GOVERNMENTAL AGENCIES. Those who do see the potential for the inevitable nationalization of the South African mining industry should immediately seek professional counseling.

Now, this has enormous implications for the gold market in the coming years. There is little doubt in my mind that precious metals production will continue to decrease in coming years. Already, South African gold production is the lowest since 1954 and I see it only plummeting in years forward, as onerous governmental interference strips all potential. Platinum production has been scheduled to rise about 70% in South Africa over the next 5 years. I think we can safely forget about that now.

I recently received a letter from an officer of the World Gold Council, who informed me that the industry group was going to spend its bullets promoting gold in the Far East, and had no interest in the United States or Europe. It would seem that they are again in the wrong place at the wrong time, as usual. Gold imports into Japan, where fear and emotion are running at high levels due to the continuing economic difficulties, totaled less than 5 tons of gold for the month of June, or about $50 million USD. It is clear that the Japanese are simply not interested.

I think it prudent to just skip the analysis of the Commitment of Traders report this week. Too much has happened since Tuesday, the date when they are published. All information, and any analysis based thereupon, is most assuredly worthless by now. Those who keep historical records can go the CFTC website and look at history [editor`s note - COTs here].

RECOMMENDATIONSPositions and recommendations are available to clients and subscribers). A complimentary subscription to the newsletter, with specific recommendations and positions, is available upon request for a one month period.

Leonard Kaplan

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.swissinfo.org/de/images/deh_world.gif

http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 18:22, Montag 29.07.2002

Falsche Finanzangaben auch bei US-Telekomriese QWest

NEW YORK - In der Serie von Bilanzskandalen in den USA hat ein weiteres Unternehmen falsche Zahlenangaben einräumen müssen. Der US-Telekommunikationsriese QWest in Denver hat Bilanzfehler zugegeben.

QWest teilte mit, die Ergebnisse für 1999, 2000 und 2001 müssten korrigiert werden, nachdem Bilanzierungsfehler entdeckt worden seien. Auch die Prognose für das Jahr 2002 müsse zurückgenommen werden.

Qwest hat in den Jahren 1999 bis 2001 1,16 Mrd. Dollar an Umsätzen und anderen Positionen unrechtmässig verbucht. Nach der Mitteilung war der Aktienkurs von QWest in der Spitze um 41 Prozent eingebrochen.

Nun will QWest seine Geschäftszahlen erneut vorlegen. Bei der US-Börsenaufsicht SEC stand der viertgrösste US-Telekomanbieter schon seit längerem auf der Liste der zu überprüfenden Unternehmen. Die US-Staatsanwaltschaft hatte bereits vor einigen Wochen strafrechtliche Ermittlungen aufgenommen.

Das Unternehmen steckt schon seit Monaten in einer schweren Krise. Erst im vergangenen Monat musste Unternehmenschef Joseph Nacchio auf internen Druck seinen Hut nehmen. 291128 jul

29.07.2002 11:30, SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Economy/0,4186,2-8-25_1…

29/07/2002 22:59 - (SA)

Leaked mining document to be discussed on Tuesday

Jan de Lange

Johannesburg - Minerals and Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka meets "all role players in the mining industry" on Tuesday to set out the government`s views on the controversial draft manifesto for the mining industry.

The draft manifesto, which proposes that 51% of all new mining projects must be owned by black entrepreneurs within 10 years, was leaked to internet news service Miningweb last week shortly after the minister distributed it to mining companies, the Chamber of Mines and other role players in the industry.

Tuesday`s action is an effort to restore confidence in the mining industry and to repair the damage caused to investor confidence by rumours. Mining company share prices have already fallen sharply since the document was leaked on Friday.

The JSE Securities Exchange South Africa gold mining index fell by 3.93% to 2 196.9 points on Monday, following a sharp 11.7% tumble on Friday.

The shares which suffered the most on Monday included Anglo American, which fell back by 5.07% to R129.75, after falling more than 10% on Friday. Afrikander Lease declined by 9.52% to R4.18, and Harmony by 3.28% to R112.12. Durban Roodepoort Deep went down 11.85% to R23.20.

At least part of the fall can also be attributed to the weaker gold price, although gold managed to maintain a price level above $300 an ounce on Monday. The London fixing on Monday afternoon was $303.05 an ounce.

Mlambo-Ngcuka`s spokesperson Kanya Gjuke lashed out on Monday against whoever had leaked the document in its draft form. The document is an effort by the government to reach unanimity in the industry following the ill feeling caused by the Minerals Act a month ago, but it immediately drew sharp opposition from Anglo American. Anglo said on Friday it was committed to reaching agreement on a manifesto which "has been thoroughly considered and is practical".

All officials in the department have been instructed not to comment on the manifesto until after Tuesday`s meeting.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wsrn.com/apps/news/art.xpl?id=4841026&f=NEWS

Mineral Policy Center: Mining Industry Seeking to Evade Financial Responsibility for Cleaning Up Billions in Toxic Pollution

Monday, July 29, 2002 05:41:18 PM - US Newswire

WASHINGTON, Jul 23, 2002 (U.S. Newswire via COMTEX) --

Mining expert Jim Kuipers from the Center for Science in Public Participation testified before the House Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources today that taxpayers may have to pay as much as 10 billion dollars to clean up polluted mine sites on public lands. Recent rule changes require the mining industry to ensure adequate funding for mine clean-ups before mining begins. In response to industry lobbying against these rules, the Bush Administration formed a task force that is likely to propose changes to allow ineffective "corporate guarantees" rather than real financial guarantees. This would make it much easier for mining companies to avoid financial responsibility for clean-ups and shift the costs to taxpayers.

"At a time when the Enron and Worldcom scandals have rocked public confidence and demonstrated a need for much greater corporate accountability, why is the Bush Administration about to allow the mining industry to evade responsibility
for paying to clean up toxic pollution from mines?" Kuipers told the committee.

"Instead of proposing to weaken the regulations, the Bush Administration should enforce current regulations and seek new tools to ensure that polluters pay, not taxpayers."

Under existing federal regulations, mining companies are required to purchase bonds or cash equivalents to cover the costs of environmental clean-ups from mining operations on public lands. The up-front bond purchases ensure that toxic
pollution will be cleaned up and mutilated landscapes reclaimed when a company is unable or unwilling to pay. These financial guarantees are needed because the mining industry has left a trail of toxic contamination: 500,000 abandoned mines across the county; the pollution of 40 percent of Western watersheds; and nearly 30 mine sites currently on the EPA`s Superfund National Priority List of the most contaminated sites in the nation.

Typically, a large mine site will disturb more than 10,000 acres of land. At many mines, acid drainage can result in the leaching of toxic and carcinogenic contaminants such as arsenic into water sources. The costs of addressing this
pollution can climb above one hundred million dollars per mine. Mining companies have been underestimating the cost of the clean-ups, and have failed to provide adequate guarantees to ensure that the mines will be cleaned up. Kuipers estimates that mining companies in the U.S. have a potential gap of $10 billion in clean-up coverage. If the mining companies won`t be able to pay for the clean-ups, taxpayers will have to pay.

Now, in the midst of corporate accountability scandals, the mining industry is seeking relief from the Bush Administration. It has asked the administration to
eliminate the bond requirement and replace it with a worthless paper "corporate guarantee" without any financial resources attached to it. The only financial guarantee would be the taxpayer. The Environmental Protection Agency Superfund has already paid out more than $500 million to clean up mine sites.

The mining industry claims there is a crisis in the availability of bonds. Prices have risen for legitimate financial guarantees, but it is reflective of the track record of the mining industry`s underestimation of costs. The true crisis is the potential costs of repairing public lands from mining operations.

Copyright 2002, U.S. Newswire

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 00:49, Dienstag 30.07.2002

US-Autovermieter Budget beim Konkursrichter

LISLE - Der amerikanische Autovermieter Budget Group Inc. hat gemeinsam mit einigen US-Tochterfirmen bei einem Konkursgericht in Delaware ein Konkursverfahren beantragt. Die Gesellschaft will ihre Geschäfte jedoch weiter betreiben.
Der Konkursantrag habe keine Auswirkungen auf die Tagesgeschäfte, hiess es. Budget machte die Auswirkungen der Terroranschläge vom 11. September und die anhaltende Rezession in der Reisebranche verantwortlich.

Die Gesellschaft hat Gläubigerschutz im Rahmen des Kapitel Elf des US-Konkursrechtes beantragt. Dieses Konkursverfahren ermöglicht eine Fortführung der Geschäfte und Sanierungsbemühungen.

Budget hat eine Zusage von 750 Millionen Dollar für Fahrzeugfinanzierungen und von 100 Millionen Dollar für die Finanzierung seiner Tagesgeschäfte erhalten. 300039 jul

30.07.2002 00:40, SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

July 29 - Gold $303 up 20 cents - Silver $4.65 down 2 cents

The Gold Fraud Must End

After last week’s bashing, gold barely traded. Technically, the damage was significant and normally would take many weeks, or months, to repair. The caveat is the gold action last week was “not normal,” nor a result of free market trading.

As I have said for years, gold will fly when The Gold Cartel is carried out on a stretcher. Nothing has changed since last week regarding the stretcher matter, except that an oversold stock market, saved by the PPT, is correcting that condition.

We are one investigation away into J.P. Morgan Chase/Citibank’s gold price manipulation/Enron sham gold dealings from having the ambulance called in to place the cabal on that stretcher. That could surface out of the blue at any time. That is why the GATA ARMY must keep the heat on those crooks. We must do what we can to make that happen. It is time to make our own luck by doing the right things for the right reasons.

Regardless of last week’s price action, gold remains a tinderbox - like the burning forests out west.

The stock market has been going lower for over two years, yet the Wall Street crowd and their apologist press have hailed every dip as a buying opportunity by the Wall Street crowd and their apologist press. Every big sell-off has brought out howls of bottom-picking calls.

Gold, on the other hand, gets torched in a week to protect the catastrophic positions of certain corrupt bullion banks and the pundits come out en masse to announce its demise as an investment.

GATA

[ThaiGuru]

Martin Bright, Nick Pelham and Paul Harris

Sunday July 28, 2002

The Observer

Saudi Arabia is teetering on the brink of collapse, fuelling Foreign Office fears of an extremist takeover of one of the West`s key allies in the war on terror.
Anti-government demonstrations have swept the desert kingdom in the past months in protest at the pro-American stance of the de facto ruler, Prince Abdullah.
At the same time, Whitehall officials are concerned that Abdullah could face a palace coup from elements within the royal family sympathetic to al-Qaeda.
Saudi sources said the Pentagon had recently sponsored a secret conference to look at options if the royal family fell.
Demonstrations across the kingdom broke out in March, triggered by a fire in a girls` school in which 14 pupils died after the religious police stopped them escaping.
Unrest in the east of the country rapidly escalated into nationwide protests against the royal family that were brutally suppressed by the police. The Observer has obtained secret video footage of the protests smuggled out of the country last week that shows hundreds of Saudis, including women, demonstrating in support of the Palestinians and opposition to the regime.
The Foreign Office believes that the failure of Abdullah`s recent Middle East peace plan could have terminally undermined his position.
The Crown Prince`s main rival, Prince Sultan, the Defence Minister, has been vocal in his opposition to Abdullah`s pro-Western policy. His brother Prince Naif, head of the Interior Ministry, has led a crackdown on the Saudi media in the wake of the demonstrations to stop any word of them leaking out.
Abdullah has even sent his own representative to Washington to counter the influence of the ambassador, Prince Bandar, a son of Prince Sultan.
Anti-Abdullah elements within the Saudi government are also thought to have colluded in a wave of bomb attacks on Western targets by Islamic terrorists.
The authorities have blamed the attacks on an alleged `turf war` between Westerners involved in the bootleg alcohol trade and have jailed five Britons, a Canadian and a Belgian for the bombings. But British intelligence sources have confirmed that the attacks were carried out by Islamists linked to al-Qaeda.
Earlier this year, the accused men were handed sentences ranging from execution to long prison terms. But lawyers acting for the Britons have told The Observer that they could soon be free.
The tensions between the royal factions will intensify with the death of King Fahd. The condition of the king, in hospital in Switzerland, is `unstable`, doctors said.
British-based Saudi dissident Dr Saad al-Fagih said: `There is now an undeclared war between the factions in the Saudi royal family.`

-END-

GATA

[ThaiGuru]

Gold scheint sich gerade etwas zu erholen!

Auch die Gold/Silber Minen haben gestern in den USA zum Teil schon wieder kräftig nach oben korrigiert.

Heute morgen zeigten sich die australischen Minen ebenfalls wieder stärker.

Und die Futures von S&P und Nasdaq stehen zur Zeit schon wieder im Minus!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wsrn.com/apps/news/art.xpl?id=4848572&f=NEWS

CAMBIOR INC - Reduces Gold Hedging Commitments

Monday, July 29, 2002 09:50:58 PM - Market News Publishing

Toronto, Ontario, Jul 24, 2002 (Market News Publishing via COMTEX) -- Cambior Inc. is pleased to announce that it has reduced its hedging commitments by 17% since the end of the second quarter of 2002, and 26% since the beginning of the year, by converting all its variable volume forward commitments, 434,000 ounces at $339 per ounce, into 227,000 ounces of fixed forward positions at an average price of $331 per ounce. This reduction was completed without any cash outlay by the Company.

The elimination of the variable volume forwards will reduce the quarterly fluctuation of the mark-to-market value of the non-hedge derivative instruments which has affected Cambior`s results over the past year.

The updated revenue protection program is outlined in the attached table. Cambior is reducing its hedging commitments as per the modifications to its credit agreement with its lenders announced on June 12, 2002, whereby the requirement to hedge was reduced from 70% to 35% of production from its existing gold mines until 2005.

Louis P. Gignac, President and CEO of Cambior, stated "The reduction and the simplification of the hedge book are in line with our strategy and will allow a better understanding of our revenue protection program by investors and increase our exposure to the gold market".

Cambior Inc. is an international gold producer with operations, development projects and exploration activities throughout the Americas. Cambior`s shares trade on the Toronto (TSE) and American (AMEX) stock exchanges under the symbol "CBJ". Cambior`s warrants, "CBJ.WT" and "CBJ.WT.B", trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements", as defined in the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that involve
a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Such risks and uncertainties are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" in Cambior`s 2002 Annual Information Form filed with the securities commissions of all provinces
in Canada, and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the TSE and the Amex.

Email: [e-mail]
Website: http://www.cambior.com
MarketbyFax(tm) - To get the NEWS as it happens, call [phone].
(C) 2002 Market News Publishing Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimes/business/busi…

Daily Business news


Cracks start to show over mining charter

New racial rifts began to emerge in the mining industry yesterday as black companies took their more established counterparts to task for "overreacting" to leaked government proposals for a mining empowerment charter.

The proposals hit mining and resources stocks on the JSE Securities Exchange SA last week, and continued to take their toll yesterday, despite government assurances that they were intended as nothing more than discussion documents. The FTSE/JSE Africa platinum index was off 4,8%, while the FTSE/JSE Africa gold mining index slid 3,93%.

Bridgette Radebe, chairwoman of the SA Mining Development Association (Samda), which represents a number of empowerment mining companies, said yesterday there was no reason to believe that the document would be anything more than a lively starting point for robust debate around a mining charter, as was the case with the first draft of the controversial Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill.

Her comments came as government prepared to meet mining sector representatives, including the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), the Chamber of Mines and Samda, today to discuss the proposals.

"It is not a final document so why panic? We recognise that an attempt is being made by government for black economic empowerment, so we will be seeking clarification of the draft," Radebe said.

The leaked documents proposed boosting empowerment ownership in new mining ventures to 51%.

NUM general secretary Gwede Mantashe said yesterday that the established mining industry had been clumsy in dealing with the process of change in the industry.

"The department was bringing a proposal to stakeholders in the industry for the purpose of discussion, but before a discussion could even begin, the big mining houses have already decided to contaminate the process and (are) throwing their toys out of the cot," he said.

The department has come in for criticism from some in the industry about what has been described as the naivety of some of the proposals.

This was strongly denied by the department yesterday. It insisted the draft, which was drawn up by a three-member committee charged with combining the proposals after widespread consultation in the department, was a discussion document.

David Barritt, the department`s media adviser, denied claims of naivety, saying Minerals and Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka had said she would be pragmatic in the empowerment process.

Black Business Council chairman David Moshapalo said transformation would happen in this country. It was an irreversible process.

"People are just being silly. The charters are meant to guide the industry players. They are being given an opportunity to take charge of the empowerment process in their own sector," he said.

Moshapalo said the continued mention of threat to investments in SA was becoming too rhetoric with no evidence.

"With all these reactions, maybe that is why there is a need for a black economic empowerment Act.

"So that if it law, then there would be no arguments, but just to streamline our thinking process on how to achieve empowerment in the various sectors," he said.

Business Day

[ThaiGuru]

Eine weitere Zeitbombe in den USA!

Wer immer noch, oder nach dem gestrigen trügerischen Börsenanstieg, schon wieder an einen Wirtschaftsaufschwung in den USA glaubt, und dem Gold keine Chance mehr einräumen sollte, ist gut bedient, wenn er den neusten Artikel des Wirtschaftsmagazines "Business Week" in seine Ueberlegungen mit einfliessen lässt.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_31/b3794070.…

In diesem Bericht wird ganz offen von einem möglichen/wahrscheinlichen Fehlbetrag, von bis zu 140 Milliarden US Dollar geschrieben, der auch bei weitem noch mehr betragen kann, falls die Renditen der Anlagen bei den Pensionskassen der grossen US Firmen, im Standard & Poor`s 500-stock Index, wie z.Bsp. General Motorssinken, weiter fallen.

Hier ein Auszug:

The New Pinch from Pensions

Companies must pour billions into retiree plans after betting on stocks

Amid the wreckage of the worst bear market in at least three decades, hemorrhaging corporate pension plans are rapidly becoming Wall Street`s biggest new worry. They have lost hundreds of billions of dollars, and now companies face the end of their long-running holiday from writing checks to the plans. Over the next 18 months or so, companies ranging from General Motors to United Technologies face having to pump billions into their plans to comply with federal laws to protect pensioners.

Even if plan investments somehow manage to eke out 5% returns this year, companies in Standard & Poor`s 500-stock index will be $40 billion short of their projected pension obligations, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. If plans lose 5%, they`ll be $150 billion in the hole. Either way, it is a world away from 1999 when the plans had a $292 billion surplus and a 30% cushion over their commitments.

"The squeeze on U.S. pension funds has the potential to be the defining U.S. financial crisis of the 2000s, like the savings and loan squeeze of the 1980s,"

Auch der weltbekannte Wirtschaftsexperte Paul Krugmann, warnt in seiner neuesten Kolumne, in der New York Times von heute, vor einer riesigen Finanzkatastrophe, für die US Pensionskassen Funds! Er spricht von einer Sprengkraft die mindestens 50 fach die Stärke von Worldcom aufweise.

"The pension time bomb involves large numbers"

"I`d say it`s the equivalent of at least 50 WorldComs"

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/30/opinion/30KRUG.html


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[manfred1_I]

jetzt wirds in Südamerika eng:

17:44:22 30.07.2002 - Uruguays Regierung ordnet wegen Finanzkrise Schließung der Banken an

MONTEVIDEO (dpa-AFX) - Die Regierung von Uruguay hat am Dienstag wegen der akuten Finanzkrise die Schließung der Banken angeordnet. Die Maßnahme bleibe zumindest für Dienstag in Kraft, hieß es offiziell. Zuvor war der Kurs des Dollar von 29 auf 35 Pesos in die Höhe geschossen.

Uruguay leidet ebenso wie das Nachbarland Argentinien unter einer Vertrauenskrise und einhergehender Kapitalflucht ins Ausland. Die Devisenreserven der Zentralbank sind seit Jahresbeginn um 75 Prozent zurückgegangen. Verhandlungen mit dem Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) über einen neuen Kredit waren zudem nicht wie erhofft am Wochenende abgeschlossen worden./ro/mr/DP

[jeffery2]

@manfred, einmal reicht doch.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1…

30/07/2002 16:21 - (SA)

Mining stocks rocket higher

Johannesburg - Mining shares raced higher on Tuesday afternoon, cheered by a firm gold price, government clarification on the controversial mining charter and a wobbly rand.

A lower open on Wall Street also helped gold shares, boosting their safe-haven status, traders said.

At 15:39, the all-share index pushed 2.4% or 225.35 points higher to 9608.33, led by the gold index which rocketed 12.16%.

Gold Fields climbed 11.92% to R108. AngloGold clocked up 12.2% to R456, helped by news of its purchase of another 46.25% of Argentina`s Cerro Vanguardia mine which it said would immediately enhance earnings and cash flow.

Other stocks in focus included newly-listed ARMgold, which held firm at about R50.50, up 3.1%, little changed by results that showed cash operating income rose by 17% in the June quarter.

The recovery in gold recouped Monday`s losses. Gold was trading at US$304.75/05.25 an ounce from $302.40 late on Monday.

Anglo American added 4.6% to R137.95 as investors took heart in a statement by government, miners and unions that a draft of a controversial mining charter was not official policy.

Investors had punished mining shares since Friday when the draft charter was leaked to the markets.

Other gainers included BHP Billiton, which added 3.8% at R48.70. Impala Platinum gained 2.8% higher to R330.99, helped by a softer rand.

Nedcor lost 2.5%, little changed by an 18% gain in core earnings in the half of 2002. The share was trading at R122.50, outperforming a 0.6% gain in the sector.

Sasol added 0.5% to R106 and Richemont added 1.3% at R20.05.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/ap/jul02/ap-gold-prices0730…

Tuesday World Gold Prices

Associated Press

Last Updated: July 30, 2002 at 11:10:12 a.m.

Selected world gold prices, Tuesday.

Hong Kong late: $304.65 up $1.70.

London morning fixing: $304.45 up $2.35.

London afternoon fixing: $305.40 up $3.30.

London late: $305.30 up $3.20.

Paris afternoon fixing: $304.37 up $1.96.

Zurich late afternoon: $305.05 up $2.85.

NY Handy & Harman: $305.40 up $2.40.

NY Handy & Harman fabricated: $329.83 up $2.59.

NY Engelhard: $306.57 up $2.40.

NY Engelhard fabricated: $321.90 up $2.52.

NY Merc. gold spot month Mon: $302.50 off $0.90.

NY HSBC Bank USA 4 p.m. Mon: $302.80 off $0.70.

[ThaiGuru]

Nachdem der Manfred_1 uns freundlicherweise schon zu Uruguays Bankenschliessung, einen top aktuellen Beitrag gepostet hat, hier noch ein Beitrag zu Brasiliens Problemen!

Manfred wir werden mit "Sicherheit" noch viel über die, vor dem wirtschaftlichen Zusammenbruch stehenden Südafrikanischen Staaten vernehmen. Und das dürfte dem Goldpreis sicher gut tun, und die Goldcabal Banken weiter schwächen. Ich vermute eh, dass der IMF nur hilft, weil er die USA Banken vor Schaden bewahren will, und nicht etwa wegen des Wohlergehens der Südafrikanischen Länder, oder irre ich mich da?

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News


07/30 11:34

Brazil Currency, Bonds Fall as Government Seeks New IMF Aid

By Michael Smith and Jeb Blount


Rio de Janeiro, July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil`s currency plummeted and bonds fell for a seventh day on concern the government is running out of options to avoid defaulting on 1 trillion reais ($305 billion) of debt.

Brazil`s benchmark 8 percent bond maturing in 2014 fell below 50 cents on the dollar and the real weakened 3.4 percent as companies, traders, and individuals bet the government can`t stop the currency`s slide. Brazilian officials planned to travel to Washington today to ask the International Monetary Fund for new loans to bolster reserves and defend the currency.

``The market wants something solid, and up to now at least, we have nothing,`` said Mario Battistel, director of foreign exchange at Novacao SA Corretora de Cambio SA brokerage in Sao Paulo. ``At least $10 billion would be a good cushion, but the doubt is whether they`ll be able to get that.``

Brazil`s currency has lost more than 8.4 percent of its value in two days, pushing up the cost of servicing dollar debt at a time when lenders are wary of extending credit to South America. Brazil`s debt has tripled since 1995 and almost half is tied to the dollar, and its obligations soar by about $1.4 billion for each percentage point the currency loses.

Argentina defaulted on $95 billion in bonds in December and in the following month devalued its currency. Today, Uruguay`s central bank declared a bank holiday without providing details about how long or why the nation`s banks and foreign exchange market would be closed.

Brazil`s real weakened for an eighth day to 3.2550 to the dollar at 11:32 a.m. New York time from 3.17 yesterday, extending the year`s losses to 29 percent.

Bonds Fall

Brazil`s 8 percent bond maturing in 2014 fell 1.86 cents on the dollar to 50.56 at 11:32 a.m. New York time to yield 24.56 percent, the lowest since at least September 1995. Earlier, the bond traded at 49.63 cents on the dollar.

Brazil is paying more than 20 percent to borrow, and some investors doubt the government will be able to finance debt coming due through the end of the year without help from the IMF.

Concern about default is now so high that the government today said its sale today of 1.2 billion reais of floating-rate bonds used to roll over existing debt will mature in just five to seven weeks. In October, the government was able to lure investors into buying bonds due in five years.

``The Brazilian government cannot cope with interest rates at these levels in local and external debt,`` said Nick Field, who helps manage about $300 million in emerging market debt for WestLB Asset Management in London.

Deputy Finance Minister Amaury Bier and Ilan Goldfajn, the central bank economic policy director, will lead the team Brazil is sending to the IMF.

The government may ask the IMF to boost the last two disbursements left over from last year`s $16 billion aid package to $5 billion each from $500 million, O Globo reported, without citing sources. The government may also ask the IMF to lower the minimum requirement for international reserves to $12 billion from $15 billion, giving it more leeway to sell dollars to prop up the currency, the newspaper said.

Investors say Brazil may need $20 billion in fresh funding from the IMF if it is to maintain payments on its debt. The IMF has given Brazil about $33 billion in credit since 1998.

Companies Buying

The real also slid as companies bought dollars to apply toward $1.8 billion in corporate borrowings due in August, traders said. The central bank estimates that as much as $10.6 billion in company debt comes due before Dec. 31.

``IMF aid is critical, critical to stopping this,`` said Sergio Machado, director of fixed-income trading at the currency firm Banco Fator SA in Sao Paulo. ``It would show the market that the central bank has the power to defend the currency.``

Concern about default started rising in March as opposition presidential candidates began gaining in polls ahead of October elections.

Many investors are concerned these candidates, if they win, will break with the current government`s anti-inflation and spending plans, raising the risk of default.

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news&news_i…

Brazil`s real hits new low waiting for IMF deal

Tuesday July 30, 10:09 AM EDT

SAO PAULO, Brazil, July 30 (Reuters) - Brazil`s currency sank to a new low against the U.S. dollar, awaiting concrete signs that the International Monetary Fund would extend the country a new loan deal to buttress its economy.

The real weakened by more than 3 percent to 3.305 per dollar, its lowest point ever against the greenback since it went into circulation in 1994. It quickly eased back to 3.290, still 10.5 centavos weaker than where it ended on Monday.

Traders said local sentiment was bleak despite news that Brazil was sending a negotiating mission to Washington later Tuesday to continue talks already under way. Brazil`s Central Bank president, Arminio Fraga, has said Brazil would probably seek fresh IMF aid if market turbulence fueled by worries ahead of October`s presidential elections persists.

An IMF deal, said Alexandre Vasarhelyi, head currency trader at ING Barings in Sao Paulo, "will help once we have something concrete."

The currency has also been under strong pressure this month as companies, unable to roll over their debt abroad, seek dollars to pay it off.


©2002 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

Von der grossen weiten Zeitungs-Welt anscheinend völlig ignoriert, ist die "Moldavische Republik" gerade nochmals haarscharf an einem Zahlungsmoratorium (Staatsbankrott) vorbei geschlittert, wie die Pravda bereits am 27. July berichtette. Auch in Moldavien hatte der IMF seine Finger im Spiel, wenn ich den Pravda Artikel richtig übersetzt habe.

In wievielen Ländern muss, oder will der IMF den noch Feuerwehr spielen?

Mit goldenem Gruss

ThaiGuru








http://english.pravda.ru/cis/2002/07/27/33328.html

17:45 2002-07-27

MOLDAVIA MANAGED TO AVOID DEFAULT

Moldavian prime-minister Vasile Tarlev described the information regarding transfer to the national bank of the republic of the first USD 12.5 million tranche of the credit provided by the International Monetary Fund as the significant event important for "every real patriot of the state." The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank suspended financing of the republic in connection with the communists` victory in the February 2001 elections despite the stated readiness of the new authorities to continue the cooperation initiated by their predecessors.

During the present year the threat of default became more than real for Moldavia: it had to return to creditors USD 200 million which equalled 75 % of the revenue part of the budget.

According to the statement made to journalists by the head of the Moldavian cabinet of ministers, "the present event was a positive signal to commence negotiations with the Paris Club to restructure or to write off part of our indebtedness. And the most important thing is that Moldavia managed to avoid default."

© RIAN

[ThaiGuru]

BW2121 JUL 30,2002 5:02 PACIFIC 08:02 EASTERN


( BW)(ID-HECLA-MINING)(HL) Hecla Announces Earnings Conference Call

Friday, August 2, 2002, at 10:00 a.m. ET, 7:00 a.m. PT

Business Editors

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 30, 2002--Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) (NYSE: HL-Prb), a precious metals company, will hold its quarterly conference call to discuss second quarter results on Friday, August 2, 2002, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (7:00 a.m. Pacific Time). Hecla will release its second quarter 2002 financial results on Thursday, August 1, 2002.

This call is being webcast by CCBN and can be accessed at Hecla`s web site at www.hecla-mining.com under Investor Relations. The webcast is also being distributed over CCBN`s Investor Distribution Network to both institutional and individual investors. Individual investors can listen to the call through CCBN`s individual investor center at www.companyboardroom.com or by visiting any of the
investor sites in CCBN`s Individual Investor Network. Institutional investors can access the call via CCBN`s password-protected event management site, StreetEvents

http://www.streetevents.com.

Hecla Mining Company, headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Venezuela and Mexico. A 111-year-old company, Hecla has long been well known in the mining world and financial markets as a quality producer of silver and gold.


CONTACT: Hecla Mining Co., Coeur d`Alene
Vicki J. Veltkamp, 208/769-4144
[e-mail]

SOURCE: Hecla Mining Co.

[Insiderin007]

Vielleicht für den ein oder anderen interessant:
Offener Brief von Mark Wellesley-Wood (Durban) zum Minengesetz in Südafrika:

OPEN LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS
by: prozacnasdaq 07/30/02 06:00 am
Msg: 45676 of 45677

AN OPEN LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS FROM CHAIRMAN AND CEO
MARK WELLESLEY-WOOD REGARDING THE SOUTH AFRICAN
GOVERNMENT’S PROPOSED CHARTER ON BLACK ECONOMIC
EMPOWERMENT IN THE MINING INDUSTRY

Given the unprecedented, adverse reaction of international investors to the
content of the South African Government’s first position on its proposed
charter on black economic empowerment in the mining industry – leaked to
the media last week – I feel I must offer you a few observations.
A South African Government spokesman, confirming the existence of the
document, made it clear that it was a “first position” only; a “proposal” that will
be “discussed and adapted over time”.
Regrettably, these comments passed almost unnoticed in the furore around
the document’s content. The result, I feel most profoundly, was an over-reaction
by the market. I would urge investors to remain calm, to hold their
investments, and to judge all of the role-players by their actions in the weeks
and months that deliberation around this charter is likely to take.
I have no doubts about the appetite of either myself or my South African
mining industry peers – be they majors or juniors, white or black – for robust
reaction to any proposals that would so patently alienate future foreign
investment in their industry.
I think it is important to point out that your company is well positioned with
regard to the new Minerals Act.
Firstly, we have a successful track record of taking on mineral rights that
others have failed to turn into mineable ounces; the Act, by compelling
hoarders to give up mineral rights they won’t mine will offer DRD further
opportunities to do what it does best.
Secondly, in our black empowerment partnership with Khumo Bathong, we
have a model that is absolutely in keeping with the spirit and intent of the new
Act; and, in fact, preceded it by several months.
There is every reason to believe, even at this early stage, that DRD is thus
uniquely positioned to benefit similarly from the Charter, once everyone has
“had their say”, the “middle ground has been reached”, the “water has flowed
under the bridge”, etc.
I would like to think that your company will see through the debating process
less as “Chicken Licken” and more as “Braveheart”.

With kind regards

Mark
http://www.durbans.com/doc/pru/DRD%20STATEMENT.pdf

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news&news_i…

Goldman ups gold sector to `market overweight`

[Frage mich nur was ein Goldcabal Mitglied dazu bewegt hat, den Goldpreis auf 310.-$ höher zu bewerten, und meine Echo Bay Mines ebenfalls? ECO ist heute stark gestiegen mit zur Zeit plus 16.44%,ThaiGuru]

Tuesday July 30, 12:00 PM EDT

NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Tuesday said it raised its rating on the gold sector to a "market overweight" from "market weight," and raised its gold price forecast.

Goldman said it now expects gold to sell at $310 per ounce in the second half of 2002 and the full-year 2003, up from yesterday`s $302 close.

It raised its rating on Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) to "recommend list" from "market outperform" and upped Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) to "trading buy" from "market perform."

The investment firm also upgraded Placer Dome Inc. (PDG), AngloGold Ltd. (ANGJ) and Lihir Gold Ltd (LHG) (LIHRY) to "market outperformer" from "market performer."

Goldman lowered its full-year 2002 earnings estimates for Barrick Gold but raised its earnings estimates for Freeport, Placer Dome, Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), AngloGold, Ashanti Goldfields Co. (AGC), Echo Bay Mines Ltd. (ECO) and TVX Gold Inc. (TVX).


©2002 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

July 30 - Gold $304.10 up $1.10 - Silver $4.67 up 2 cents

Third Saudi Prince to Die in a Week

On the surface, it was a very boring gold day. After its recent bashing, gold was allowed to drift higher until the $2 rule was enforced anew. This is getting to be pretty tiring after all these years. Boy, do I loathe these crooks.

The big story is one that our free press is saying little about:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_28319,0005.htm

Top of Form[PARA]Saudi prince found dead in desert
Agence France-Presse[NL]Riyadh, July 30

Saudi Prince Fahd bin Turki bin Saud al Kabir has been found dead in his country`s searing desert, the official SPA news agency said early on Tuesday, adding that the prince apparently died of thirst.[NL][NL]The report said the 25-year-old prince had been travelling in Rimah province, south of the town of al Ammaniya.[PARA]It gave no further details.[NL][NL]Prince Fahd was the third member of the extensive Saudi royal family to die in a week.[PARA]Prince Sultan bin Faisal bin Turki al-Saud, 41, died in a road accident on July 23 as he was driving from the coastal resort of Jeddah to the capital Riyadh for the funeral of his cousin Prince Ahmed bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz, 43, who had died the day before of a heart attack. [PARA]Bottom of Form[PARA] -END-

[ThaiGuru]

Korrektur!

Posting #1682

Sollte natürlich Südamerika heissen, und nicht Südafrika.

Gruss und Danke an den Leser der mich auf diesen Fehler aufmerksam machte.

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

WASHINGTON, July 29 (Reuters) -

The U.S. Treasury on Monday said it would need to borrow more in the July-September quarter than it previously thought, reflecting a weaker federal budget outlook. In its quarterly borrowing estimate, Treasury said it expected to borrow $76 billion in the final quarter of the government`s fiscal year, which ends in September. In late April, the Treasury had estimated the amount it would need to borrow at only $55 billion


Rechnen war wohl noch nie eine Stärke der US Treasury?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPTULATION WATCH

Now the markets should turn interesting. A lot of the negativism has been worked off. If we can come down some from here and then go up to new recovery highs with less volume and breadth and some notable individual selloffs especiall in the financial areas, we might be ready to go down in earnest. It is quite remarkable how many spectacular rallies we have gotten on up days and how the down ones stop before they cross the 200 point line.

This is the third straight day we have closed at nearly 1000 up TICKS, just indicative of the lack of concern of the buyers. This has never come close to happening during the entire decline. I am taken with the extremely high volume in GE, C and JPM, three of my candidates for kicking off the financial disaster. When the dust has finally settled, there will be more law suits than available lawyers or money to pay out. Even though I can allow for one more fierce selloff in the golds, it is very hard to be too bearish. Thanks for your excellent work.

Best, Chuck

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&…

Junk Bond Defaults at Record - Moody`s

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Eighty-nine companies defaulted on $64 billion of bonds in the first half of this year, including a record $42.6 billion in the second quarter, Moody`s Investors Service said on Monday.

The dismal second quarter led Moody`s to revise its projected year-end 12-month junk bond default rate to 8.8 percent from 7 percent, largely because of defaults by telecommunications and non-U.S. companies.

The rate in June held near 10.3 percent for a fourth straight month, after peaking at 10.7 percent in January.

David Hamilton, Moody`s director of default research, said it is not yet clear whether companies face a full-blown credit crunch.

"It`s a good question, one I`ve been asking myself," he said. "Access to risky credits is increasingly shutting down. I don`t think we`re in a credit crunch quite yet, but the makings of one are there."

Junk bond investors have been on a buyers` strike this month because economies are sputtering, demand for high technology and telecom products is vanishing and companies are being called onto the carpet over their accounting.

Moody`s said the pace of corporate defaults, measured in dollars, is running about 16 percent above last year`s record total of $110.2 billion.

Moody`s said the largest first-half defaults came from: cable operators NTL Communications Inc.NTLD.OB , with $8.5 billion of bonds, Adelphia Communications Corp.ADELQ.PK , with $6.9 billion, and United Pan-Europe CommunicationsUPEC.AS , with $5.1 billion; telecom Global Crossing Ltd.GBLXQ.PK , with $3.8 billion; and retailer Kmart Corp.KM.N , with $2.5 billion.

WorldCom Inc.WCOEQ.O , with $23 billion of bonds, is not included in Moody`s first-half default data because it began 2002 as an investment-grade company and sought bankruptcy protection in July.

Moody`s rates junk bonds "Ba1" or lower, and Standard & Poor`s and Fitch Ratings rate them "BB-plus" or lower.

Junk bonds have returned negative 9.09 percent this year, including interest, and last week suffered their worst week in nearly 11 months, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

Hamilton said the rising default projections suggest more investor pain ahead. "The painfully slow decline in high-yield defaults may keep a lid on high-yield total returns for some time, at least until late in 2003," he said.

Last Friday, S&P, using different criteria, said 56 companies worldwide defaulted on a record $52.1 billion of debt in the year`s second quarter.

[ThaiGuru]

Soviel zum wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung in Deutschland!

Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=N22AUPNY…

Deutsche Post verzeichnet starken Gewinneinbruch

31 Juli 2002 08:14 CEST

Frankfurt (Reuters) - Die Deutsche Post hat im ersten Halbjahr 2002 einen starken Gewinneinbruch verzeichnet.

Der Nettogewinn sei auf 155 Millionen Euro von rund einer Milliarde Euro im Vorjahreszeitraum gesunken, teilte das Unternehmen am Mittwoch in Bonn mit. Das Ergebnis vor Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen (Ebita) sei um sechs Prozent auf 1,3 Milliarden Euro geschrumpft. Der Umsatz sei dagegen hauptsächlich wegen der Übernahme der Mehrheit an dem Logistik-Unternehmen DHL International um rund 15 Prozent auf 19,4 Milliarden Euro gestiegen.

Von Reuters befragte Analysten hatten im Durchschnitt ein Halbjahresergebnis vor Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen (Ebita) von 1,321 Milliarden Euro (Vorjahreshalbjahr: 1,414) Euro erwartet.

Die Europäische Kommission hatte die Deutsche Post vor kurzem aufgefordert, angeblich erhaltene Staatsbeihilfen in Höhe von mehr als 570 Millionen Euro an den Bund zurückzuzahlen. Das Unternehmen kündigte daraufhin an, vorsorglich eine Rückstellung über 850 Millionen Euro zu bilden.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=N22AUPNY…

Schwache US-Konjunkturdaten belasten auch Tokioter Börse

31 Juli 2002 06:53 CEST

Tokio (Reuters) - Der Tokioter Aktienmarkt hat am Mittwoch auf Grund schlechter als erwartet ausgefallener US-Konjunkturdaten vom Vortag schwächer tendiert. Besonders Aktien von exportabhängigen Unternehmen wie dem größten japanischen Chip-Hersteller Toshiba gehörten zu den Verlierern.

Der 225 Werte umfassende Nikkei-Index verlor im späten Geschäft (Ortszeit) 1,1 Prozent auf 9893 Punkte. Der breiter gefasste Topix-Index gab 0,65 Prozent auf 968 Zähler nach.

Toshiba-Aktien fielen 2,4 Prozent auf 449 Yen. "Japanische Blue-Chips haben diese Woche solide Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal vorgelegt. Aber das Risiko einer Konjunkturdämpfung in den USA ist noch nicht vollständig in ihrer Gesamtjahresprognose berücksichtigt", sagte Aktienmanager Masatoshi Sato von Mizuho Investors Securities. Daher hielten sich die Anleger zurück.

Am Dienstag gab das US-Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut Conference Board bekannt, der von ihm ermittelte Vertrauensindex der US-Verbraucher in die heimische Wirtschaft habe im Juli einen Rückgang auf 97,1 Punkte von 106,3 Punkten im Vormonat verzeichnet. Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten im Schnitt lediglich mit einem Rückgang auf 101,9 Punkte gerechnet.

[ThaiGuru]

Und was sagen uns indirekt diese heutigen Meldungen?

Gold und Silber kaufen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Weiter so!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mbendi.co.za/a_sndmsg/news_view.asp?P=0&PG=11&I=3…

South African government initiates discussions on the black economic empowerment charter in the mining industry
At a standing forum of the Tripartite Sector Partnership Committee held at the offices of the Department of Minerals and Energy in Pretoria, today, Tuesday, 30 July 2002, the Department initiated discussions with stakeholders on the provisions of the Black Economic Empowerment Charter in the mining and minerals industry. The meeting was attended by representatives from Organized Labour, the Chamber of Mines, SAMDA (an association of junior and emerging mining companies, including BEE), AMEF (BEE and women in mining and energy sectors), African Minerals Association (black professionals in mining), the Foreign Investors and Prospectors Forum, and Government.

The meeting noted the importance of the transformation of the mining industry in general and the promotion of Black Economic Empowerment in particular. It noted the importance of developing a proper process of engagement to avoid negative public perceptions and ensure the emergence of a Charter that will represent the national interest of the country.

It was agreed that a Task Team comprised of representatives from the stakeholders be established to initiate the discussions.

The timeframes for completion of the work of the Task Team is informed by the requirement of the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill to have such a charter completed within six months of the promulgation of the Bill into law.

The parties agreed that the first meeting of the Task Team will take place as soon as possible.

Furthermore, it was agreed that the matter should be handled with the necessary sensitivity it deserves. The public will be informed about progress made as the matter is being resolved through formal communiqués.

In conclusion, it must be further noted that the leaked document was a draft to stimulate debate and discussions on the matter amongst the aforementioned parties and, does not in any way represent official Government policy or position. The draft document was an attempt to balance the various diverse and competing views and interests across the spectrum of our society.

All parties denounce the fact that the document was leaked to the media.

JOINT STATEMENT OF THE TRIPARTITE SECTOR PARTNERSHIP COMMITTEE

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpuDGWaicveGTsKvx…

July 31, 2002 03:09

India Poses Threat to Thailand`s Jewellery Market Share

By Somporn Thapanachai, Bangkok Post, Thailand 31. July

India, a rising exporter of gems and jewellery, is becoming a formidable competitor to Thailand even though the two countries do not compete to supply the same products.

India`s strength is in cutting small-sized diamonds and it is gaining prominence for its exports of gold jewellery, while Thailand is best known for precious stones and silver jewellery.

Both countries were now fighting for greater market share in the world, particularly in the United States, the biggest buyer of gems and jewellery, said Prof Sakda Siripant, director of the Gem and Jewellery Institute of Thailand.

India earned US $7.78 billion last year from gems and jewellery, which accounted for 17.55 percent of the country`s total exports, Prof Sakda said at a seminar on India`s rising competitive potential.

About 80 percent of Indian exports were diamonds and 15 percent gold jewellery, while coloured stones, silver jewellery and costume jewellery made up the remainder.

Prof Sakda said India`s diamond exports totalled 33.12 million carats, representing 80 percent of the total world diamond trade by volume and 55 percent by value.

As India also supplied large quantities of semi-precious stones, Thailand needed to co-operate with India to be sure of obtaining the supplies of stones and diamonds it needed to import for finishing, he said.

Sunee Sriorathaikul, president of the Thai Gem and Jewellery Traders` Association, said India had rapidly expanded its exports of gold jewellery and was now the second-largest supplier of the products in the United States, surpassing Thailand, which had been second to Italy for many years.

She said Thailand should monitor the development of India`s gold jewellery industry closely, while the government should quickly solve problems related to raw material imports to help the local industry.

Chayodom Sabhasir, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, said his study showed that gold usage in India increased threefold between 1990 and 2000, compared with global growth of 37 percent in the same period. In 2000, India used 655 tonnes of gold and ranked first among gold-using countries. It surpassed longtime leader Italy in 1996.

He said the Indian government had encouraged the development of the industry with the establishment of special economic zones, relaxation of import regulations for diamonds, as well as providing banking facilities to support the industry.

Prof Sakda said India`s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council had strongly supported exports. As well, India had 2,000 marketing affiliates worldwide and had a large skilled labour pool, including young designers who were winning many international awards.

"We are not a direct competitor with India. Thai exporters need a pro-active marketing strategy to expand its market, particularly in the US," he said.

-----

To see more of the Bangkok Post, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.bangkokpost.com

(c) 2002, Bangkok Post, Thailand. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpuypqbebDxmTy29P…

$20 gold coin sells for $7.59 million

Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2002 8:23:16 PM EST

NEW YORK, July 30 (UPI) -- An American gold coin with a face value of $20 and a metallic worth of $270 was sold Tuesday by the U.S. Mint for $7.59 million, a record price for any coin ever sold at auction. The 1933 "Double Eagle" was purchased by an unidentified buyer, rumored to be an American private collector.


--
Copyright 2002 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/020731/1028039812622_1.html

Wednesday July 31, 3:31 am Eastern Time

FT.com

AngloGold cuts hedge book in second quarter

By Mary Watkins

AngloGold, the South Africa miner, said on Wednesday it would reduce its hedge book by 2.4m ounces to 10.5m ounces in the second quarter as it reported a 10 per cent rise in operating profit.

The miner attributed the "significant reduction" in the company`s hedge book to more positive medium to long-term prospects for the gold price.

Anglo said operating profit in the second quarter to June 30 rose 10 per cent to $162m. For the half it was up 31 per cent to $309m compared with the same period the year before.

The miner said total cash costs dropped 17 per cent to $156 an ounce.

Headline earnings per share, pre-exceptional items, were 79 US cents.

Anglo said the interim dividend would be R13.50 a share, a 93 per cent rise on the interim dividend of 2001.

The miner also said it was hopeful that the South African mining industry would reach a compromise on some of the issues raised by the passing of a new Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development law, which would mean mineral rights would be leased from the government rather than owned outright.

Anglo said it would continue to increase earnings through discovery, development and acquisition of low-cost, high-margin ounces. On the back of that the miner said it had doubled its stake in the Cerro Vanguardia mine in Argentina.

[niemandweiss]

@ Thaiguru

du scheinst sicher zu sein, daß es wieder aufwärts geht. Nach dem letzten Abfall kann ich mir jedoch vorstellen, daß viele Minenanleger erst einmal kurriert und äusserst vorsichtig sind. Die Angst ist womöglich stärker als man glaubt.

niemandweiss

[Seza]

Chinesen blasen Goldrallye endgültig ab.

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=3…

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Du hast völlig recht, dass Anleger die noch vor einigen Wochen erst eingestiegen sind, sind verunsichert, und einige haben zum Teil auch Angst.

Doch war, und bin ich mir sehr sicher, dass die Gold und Silberpreise wieder weiter ansteigen werden. Auch wenn ich selbst nicht genau sagen kann, wann und wie hoch die Edelmetalle genau steigen werden. Als Langfristanlage, ist Gold und Silber für mich die Anlage überhaupt, in diesen turbulenten wirtschaftlichen Zeiten. Dass bei steigenden Edelmetallpreisen auch die Edelmetallaktien wieder anziehen werden, versteht sich ja von selbst.

Du selbst bist genauso wie ich investiert geblieben, als das für Goldbugs fast Undenkbare eingetreten ist. Die Goldpreise sind ca. 8% vom Höchst gefallen, und die Minenaktien wurden gleich in Panik von vielen rausgeschmissen, und diese sind zum Teil über 50% gefallen.

In den letzten 2 Börsentagen, haben mehrer Aktien aber schon zum Teil wieder stark zugelegt.

Meine First Silber Toronto *FSR.TO* z.Bsp., gestern ca. 30% Plus.

Die Zeit wird zeigen ob ich richtig liege mit meiner Einschätzung der Gold und Silber Dinge.

Gut Ding, will Weile haben!

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Seza

Von welcher endgültig abgeblasen Gold Rallye redest Du?

Dein Link führt zu einem pessimistischen Bericht zu Gold als Anlage Instrument, der in der South China Morgenpost, am 30. July erschien, und von CNN Money weiter veröffentlicht wurde.

Das interessanteste an diesem South China Morgenpost Bericht ist, dass CNN es nicht einmal für nötig hält, den Author namentlich zu nennen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[5514849]

Kann mir wer erklären, warum das Gold wieder so stark eingebrochen ist, anstatt zu steigen ???

Weltweit kriselt es : Kriegsgefahr, rückläufige Weltkonjunktur, überschuldete Staaten

Könnte die Ursache für den (wieder) eingebrochenen Goldpreis darin liegen, dass Notenbanken, Weltbank und Grossinvestoren etc. eigene Goldreserven verkaufen, um sich für Stützungsmassnahmen bzw.Portfoliosannierung Liquidität zu verschaffen.

Ich hoffe auf zahlreiche kritische Stellungnahmen !!!

Gruss Wochriska

[granitbiss]

1703 ThaiGuru

bei First Silver + 30% solltest du aber bitte auch den Umsatz mit beischreiben, das relativiert die Sache.
Ich glaube es waren so 2-3.000 Stücke ?

[mickym [VIP]]

Vielleicht wird Gold als alternatives Investment erst dann wieder gesehen, wenn alle anderen Alternativen sich als nicht brauchbar erweisen, d.h. der immer noch herrschende Optimismús an den Aktienmärkten endgültig gebrochen ist.

Das mit den Shorteindeckungen der Banken, kann mE noch dauern und wird so lange hinausgezögert, wie möglich.

Dieser Verdacht drängt sich mir jedenfalls im Moment auf.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

@Granitbiss

Du hast völlig recht, es waren sehr wenig Stücke die gehandelt wurden, als der Preis 30% zugelegt hat.



Letzte Woche beim grossen Minenaktien Ausverkauf, als die Aktie 50% gefallen ist waren es auch jeweils nur sehr wenig Stücke gewesen, das kannst Du am Umsatz an den Chart gut erkennen. Das relativiert auch wiederum den Wertverlust der Aktie, weil eben nur sehr wenige Besitzer dieses Titels sich davon trennen wollten.

Die Umsätze werden steigen, sobald der Preis wieder in höhere Regionen vorstösst.

Das Beispiel mit First Silber war vielleicht etwas wenig aussagekräftig. Hätte besser die DROOY, oder die ECO genommen, die stiegen beide über 18% an, bei 2-4 Mio. gehandelten Stücken.

Heute haben die Minenaktien wieder Federn lassen müssen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@5514849

Du schreibst:

"Weltweit kriselt es : Kriegsgefahr, rückläufige Weltkonjunktur, überschuldete Staaten!"


Da müsste eigentlich doch der Goldpreis ansteigen!

Warum steigt er dann nicht, sondern fällt?

Eine mögliche Begründung, hast Du schon gegeben.

Doch der Hauptgrund, liegt meiner Meinung nach darin, das das Gold Cabal, nicht will, dass Gold steigt, und einfach so lange Papier Gold Kontrakte verkauft, bis der Goldpreis dort steht wo sie ihn sehen wollen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[talvi]

@Thaiguru

#1709 Doch der Hauptgrund, liegt meiner Meinung nach darin, das das Gold Cabal, nicht will, dass Gold steigt, und einfach so lange Papier Gold Kontrakte verkauft, bis der Goldpreis dort steht wo sie ihn sehen wollen.

Und wo bitte soll er stehen.Bei 250$ oder 200$

Grüße Talvi

[ThaiGuru]

SANTIAGO (Dow Jones)

Chile`s peso closed sharply lower Wednesday because of the financial turbulence affecting Brazil and Uruguay, traders said.

The peso swiftly fell through CLP701.50 technical support after Uruguay declared a banking holiday to stave off the collapse of its banking system and Brazil`s real again fell to historic lows.

Chile`s currency ended at CLP706.50, very close to the intraday low.

Tuesday, it had changed hands at CLP698.90.

Worries about the financial stability of South American countries sparked safe-haven dollar buying, traders said.

"The uncertain climate in the region is affecting the flow of hard currency to South America and, despite the stability of the Chilean economy, you can clearly see that reflected in the peso`s exchange rate," a Santiago trader said.

Fresh positive news for a possible free-trade agreement between Chile and the U.S. failed to prop up the peso as it had in previous sessions.

The crises in South America`s biggest economies have kept the peso`s international value at relatively low levels in recent weeks.

By Stephan Kueffner, Dow Jones Newswires; 562-460-8546;

[ThaiGuru]

@talvi

Warum bitte schön kommst Du gerade auf 200.- oder 250.- Dollar pro Unze Gold?

Du hast jedoch vermutlich recht. Falls das Goldcabal eine Möglichkeit sieht, den Goldpreis durch Papier Gold Verkäufe unter 300.- Dollar zu drücken, werden sie es auch machen.

Es würde dem Gold Cabal auch gelingen den Goldpreis noch tiefer zu drücken, wenn da nicht das grosse Problem der physischen "Verfügbarkeit" von Gold wäre!

Je tiefer die Goldpreise fallen, desto mehr steigt auch die Nachfrage nach echtem Gold. Echtes physisches Gold ist wie Du aber eigentlich sehr gut selber wissen solltest, nicht genügend vorhanden, respektive Verfügbar. Es wird bekannlich seit Jahren mehr Gold verkauft, als produziert.
Die Ueberwiegende Mehrheit der Goldproduzenten, müsste bei Preisen von 250.-$, oder weniger pro Unze, ihre Gold Produktion einstellen, weil bei diesen Preisen keine Gewinne, sondern nur noch Verluste erwirtschaftet würden.

Das Zentralbank Gold von 32000 Tonnen, könnte noch verkauft werden, sagen die Goldpessimisten. Die GATA versucht aber seit langem erfolgreich aufzuzeigen, und zu Belegen, dass das meiste dieser ZB Goldvorräte bereits weg ist, vermietet, verpfändet, etc., und überhaupt nicht mehr verkauft werden kann. Ebenso belegt die GATA, dass die Goldpreise manipuliert sind. Zudem gilt Gold immer noch zu einem kleinen Prozentsatz bei vielen ZB, als Absicherung ihrer "Fiat" Geldmengen, und bei sehr vielen Anlegern weltweit als Wertaufbewahrungsmittel, dass erfolgreich vor Wertverlust schützt. Japan sei hier nur als ein Beispiel von vielen erwähnt.

Darum schätze ich, dass dem Goldcabal eine Kontrolle der Goldpreise nicht mehr lange gelingen wird, und ein Preis von unter 300.- US Dollar pro Unze, falls überhaupt, allenfalls nur einige Tage, oder Wochen bestand haben könnte.

Falls es zu einem Krieg im nahen Osten, Indien/Pakistan, oder zu einer weltweiten wirtschafts Kriese kommen sollte, die Zeichen dafür verstärken sich täglich geradezu beängstigend, wenn man die neusten Wirtschafts Meldungen aus Amerika, Japan, Südamerika, etc., und jetzt auch vermehrt aus Europa liest, stehen die Goldpreise innert kürzester Zeit wieder auf neuen Rekordmarken.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

July 31 - Gold $302.90 down $1.20 - Silver $4.59 down 8 cents

AngloGold Reduces Hedgebook By 2.4m Ounces, Hello Newmont!

AM Fix: $305.50 PM Fix: $304.65

Gold came in higher, trading firm, until The Gold Cartel swung into action and took it gradually lower, before pounding it late in the NY trading session.

It was up nicely in overseas trading, despite a very weak Euro. Then, very disappointing economic news was announced at 8:30 EDT and the S&P futures were tagged and the dollar sank. That was all the cabal needed to see to lean into gold.

Once again evidence appears that hedgers are reducing their hedge books. For years the know-nothing gold analysts cited producer forward selling as the reason the gold price would drop on certain days. To some extent that was true, but it paled to what The Gold Cartel was doing. Now, that various gold producers are lifting their hedges, or delivering into them, these same analysts are silent about why the price of gold is not rising.

[ThaiGuru]

AngloGold cuts hedge book in second quarter

By Mary Watkins

FT.com site; Jul 31, 2002

AngloGold, the South Africa miner, said on Wednesday it would reduce its hedge book by 2.4m ounces to 10.5m ounces in the second quarter as it reported a 10 per cent rise in operating profit.
The miner attributed the "significant reduction" in the company`s hedge book to more positive medium to long-term prospects for the gold price.
Anglo said operating profit in the second quarter to June 30 rose 10 per cent to $162m. For the half it was up 31 per cent to $309m compared with the same period the year before.



The rate at which AngloGold is cutting its hedge book, it will soon be smaller than that of Newmont. What a stunner that will be. Investors bought Newmont because they were not a big hedger and shied away from Anglo because they were.

AngloGold announced last Fall that they were going to aggressively reduce their hedge book. True to their word, they are doing so.

Contrast that performance to what Newmont is dishing out to its investors and to the public. President Pierre LaSonde says he does not want to upset the gold market by reducing their hedges too fast. Has AngloGold upset the market the past 9 months? Newmont’s publicly stated goal is to reduce their hedge exposure to a still hefty 6 million ounces by year end.

If The Gold Cartel keeps gold at these price levels, that will not hurt them. But, if gold blows up (which could happen at any time), Newmont could have some big problems.

I suggest to you that the real reason Newmont is not doing an AngloGold is because their hedge book is so tricky, that they cannot reduce their forwards except at an exorbitant cost. It is what Jim Sinclair and Harry Schultz have been pounding the table about for months.

Bullion dealers such as Morgan, Chase, Citi and Goldman have sold some of the big hedgers some very exotic hedge programs. Normandy was probably one of them. They were designed to enhance the profits of the gold producers during gold’s dog days. The problem is that most are custom designed. The counter party for the gold producer is the bullion dealer. If the gold producer wants out, it must sell out to the bullion dealer. These hedge books are marked to market and look fine on paper. BUT, getting out of them is a different story. The bullion dealer is the market maker. In essence, he informs the gold producer what the exit price will be. Mark to market figures look great on paper, but the “get out price” is another story.

Newmont must believe their own bullion dealers will rape them if they want out of their hedges; that it will be too costly. That may be a penny wise and pound foolish way to go. If the bullion dealers aren’t making it easy on them now, what do you think they will do to Newmont when gold goes $400 bid?

If I were a Newmont shareholder, I would be VERY nervous.

For purposes of full disclosure (the annoying new custom these days), I am no fan of Newmont. While GATA has had many differences with AngloGold, their CEO, Bobby Godsell, has been quite the gentleman with GATA supporters and Anglo gave a substantial financial contribution to GATA a couple of years ago. Newmont, on the other hand, used GATA by sending Newmont executive Jack Kurlander to meet with me 3 years back to find out what we knew. Since then, Newmont sends back our emails, refuses to answer our letters and fails to return our phone calls. Their PR people have gone out of our way to “dis” our findings. They can go jump in a lake.

If you are comfortable investing in a big hedger and like to swim, Newmont is a way to go.

I suspect that Newmont is trapped and has been bagged. I hope they reduce their hedges like AngloGold is doing and prove me wrong.

This is no minor matter. The share prices of many of the big hedgers will soar when gold explodes. Within days, however, many of the share prices of those big hedgers will collapse as their hedge books disintegrate.

This is not supportive for gold demand, but is relatively meaningless as long as The Gold Cartel is in business:

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.zeit.de/2002/32/Wirtschaft/200232_weltkrise.html

DIE ZEIT

Wirtschaft 32/2002

Wer stoppt die Herde?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Die Konjunktur läuft, aber die Anleger meiden die Börse. Die Gefahr: Sinkende Kurse können die Realwirtschaft nach unten reißen. Europa droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation

von Robert von Heusinger und Wolfgang Uchatius


Noch 312 Stunden bis zum Tag der Lüge. Oder der Wahrheit. Hoffentlich, endlich, der Wahrheit. Bis zum 14. August müssen die Chefs der 947 größten börsennotierten US-Unternehmen einen Eid auf ihre Bilanzen leisten. Sie machen sich dann persönlich strafbar, sollten die Zahlen nicht stimmen. Das soll sie zur Wahrheit zwingen. Damit die Millionen von Klein- und Großanlegern auf der ganzen Welt der Börse endlich wieder vertrauen. Damit die Kurse wieder deutlich steigen.

Damit die Börsen in Amerika, Deutschland, England, Japan nicht die ganze Welt mit in den Abgrund reißen.

Wohl nie zuvor hat die Weltwirtschaft so kurz hintereinander so viel Stärke bewiesen und dann eine solche Schwäche gezeigt. Nach dem Platzen der Dotcom-Blase, nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September, meinten auch die optimistischsten Ökonomen: Das verkraftet die Wirtschaft nicht. Von einer jahrelangen Depression wie in den Dreißigern war die Rede. Aber vor allem die amerikanischen Verbraucher erwiesen sich als so furchtlos wie einst die Pioniere auf dem Weg nach Westen. "Sie hielten die US-Wirtschaft am Leben", sagt Roland Döhrn, Konjunkturforscher vom Rheinisch-Westfälischen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in Essen. Die Konsumenten ignorierten die fallenden Aktienkurse, kümmerten sich nicht um die Gefahr weiterer Terroranschläge. Sie gingen weiter einkaufen.

Aus der US-Rezession wurde ein Rezessiönchen. Auch Deutschland und Euroland kamen glimpflicher davon als erwartet - nicht zuletzt dank der Exporte nach Amerika. Schon für dieses Jahr sagten die Wirtschaftsforscher einen neuen Aufschwung voraus.

Alles schien gut zu gehen.

Bis die Lieblinge der Wall Street plötzlich zu Hassobjekten wurden. Erst Enron, dann Global Crossing, Xerox, Merck, Worldcom und am Montag dieser Woche der Telekomkonzern Qwest. Sie alle haben bei den Bilanzen getrickst, getäuscht, manipuliert. Haben Schulden bei Tochterfirmen versteckt, Kosten als Investition ausgegeben oder gleich eine Milliarde Dollar Scheinumsatz gebucht. Enron und Worldcom mussten kurz nach dem peinlichen Eingeständnis der geschönten Zahlen Konkurs anmelden. Und jetzt? Welche krumme Bilanz fliegt als Nächstes auf? Das Vertrauen in die Zahlen, in die Börse selbst, ist dahin.

Weshalb die großen und kleinen Investoren in den vergangenen Wochen ein Verhalten zeigten, das eigentlich der Natur der Börse zuwiderläuft: Sie verkauften ihre Aktien, obwohl es der Wirtschaft zunehmend besser geht. Noch nie hat der US-Aktienmarkt während der ersten Monate einer Konjunkturerholung so schlecht abgeschnitten wie diesmal. Nach Berechnungen der Investmentbank Morgan Stanley notieren die Indizes normalerweise sieben Monate nach dem Ende einer Rezession rund 25 Prozent höher als zwölf Monate zuvor. Der S&P500 liegt aktuell aber knapp 30 Prozent niedriger als vor einem Jahr.

16 000 Milliarden Euro weg

Bisher galt die Regel: Ist eine Krise überstanden, verbessern sich die Gewinnerwartungen - und dann steigen auch die Aktienkurse. Diesmal ist alles anders. Zwar nahm in Amerika im Mai erstmals seit anderthalb Jahren die Lagerhaltung der Industrieunternehmen, Groß- und Einzelhändler wieder zu, weil die Firmen steigende Verkäufe erwarten. Zwar steigt in Euroland seit März die Produktion der Unternehmen, der Großhandel meldet seit April steigende Verkäufe. Auch in Deutschland verbessern sich die Wirtschaftsdaten. Zwar "sieht das eigentlich alles nach einem klassischen Aufschwung aus", so RWI-Ökonom Döhrn.

Aber trotzdem verkaufen die Anleger in New York, Frankfurt, Tokyo ihre Aktien. Vergangene Woche gingen Dax und Dow in den freien Fall über und erreichten Indexstände wie zuletzt 1997. Fünf Jahre Kursgewinne lösten sich in nichts auf. Weltweit wurden seit den Höchstständen der Börsen im Frühjahr 2000 rund 16 000 Milliarden Euro vernichtet. Allein an der Wall Street 8000 Milliarden. Das Vierzigfache der jährlichen deutschen Steuereinnahmen.

Um die Kursverluste zu stoppen, das Vertrauen in die Börse zu stärken, sagte Amerika Ende vergangener Woche den Betrügern in den Konzernen, - den "Terroristen", so ein Börsenaufseher - endgültig den Kampf an. Der Präsident tat, was er so gern tut, und stellte sich auf die Seite der Guten, in diesem Fall der Regulierer. "Das ist ein Tag der Tat, an dem wir etwas erreicht haben", kommentierte George W. Bush die Entwürfe des Parlaments für die schärfsten Finanzmarktgesetze seit 70 Jahren.

Die neuen Gesetze sollen es Unternehmen und Wirtschaftsprüfern schwerer machen, Aktionäre in die Irre zu führen. Ein neues Aufsichtsgremium soll die Wirtschaftsprüfer kontrollieren, ihrer Selbstverwaltung ein Ende setzen. Die Möglichkeiten der Prüfungsgesellschaften, nebenher mit Beratungsverträgen Geld zu verdienen, werden deutlich eingeschränkt: Künftig brauchen sie die Genehmigung der Aufsicht. Nach den Gesetzesentwürfen müssen außerdem Topmanager ihre Prämien und Zulagen zurückzahlen, sollte sich erweisen, dass ihre Firma finanziell getrickst hat. Wer betrügt, muss mit einem höheren Bußgeld rechnen - oder länger als bisher möglich ins Gefängnis.

Doch selbst wenn solche Maßnahmen den Aktienverfall stoppen - es könnte zu spät sein. Die hässlichen Börsenkurse drohen sich ihre eigene ebenso hässliche Realität zu schaffen.

Das ökonomische Schicksal der Welt hängt jetzt an den amerikanischen Verbrauchern. Ihre Konsumfreude macht zwei Drittel des amerikanischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) aus und damit ungefähr ein Drittel des Welt-BIPs. "Sie sind die Notkäufer der ganzen Welt", sagt Stephen Roach, Chefvolkswirt der US-Investmentbank Morgan Stanley. Sie sind die Hoffnung auch der deutschen Wirtschaft, "deren einziger Stimulus in diesem Jahr vom Export kommt", so Hans-Werner Sinn, Präsident des Münchner ifo Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung. Deshalb lautet die entscheidende Frage: Wie reagieren die 270 Millionen Amerikaner auf die Kurseinbrüche an den Börsen? Greifen sie weiterhin vergnügt zur Kreditkarte?

Zwei Szenarios sind möglich. Das optimistische: Noch zahlreicher als die Aktienbesitzer sind in Amerika die Hausbesitzer, und im Gegensatz zu den Aktienkursen sind die Immobilienpreise gestiegen. Viel bedrückender als die Angst vor sinkenden Börsenkursen sei außerdem die Angst vor Arbeitslosigkeit, sagt Gail Fosler, Chefökonomin des Conference Board, eines New Yorker Forschungsinstituts.

Japanische Verhältnisse?

Die Arbeitslosenquote aber scheint derzeit zu sinken, und die Reallöhne steigen. Gut möglich, dass sich die amerikanischen Verbraucher davon beruhigen lassen und weiter einkaufen gehen. Dann werden auch die Unternehmen wieder anfangen zu investieren. Sie werden neue Leute einstellen, ihre Gewinne werden steigen, und die Börsenkurse auch. Und alles wird gut. So wie 1962 und 1987, als die Aktienkurse um rund 30 Prozent einbrachen, die Wirtschaft aber keinen Schaden nahm.

Es könnte aber auch ganz anders kommen. Viel schlimmer.

In Amerika sind die Maßzahlen für das Verbrauchervertrauen zuletzt deutlich gefallen, in Deutschland ist der vom ifo Institut ermittelte Index des Geschäftsklimas zurückgegangen. Erste Anzeichen dafür, dass die Börse die Wirtschaft vergiftet? Schon macht unter Ökonomen ein Schlagwort die Runde. Kabutocho 1989.

Das pessimistische Szenario: Japan. Jahrelang hatte das Land geboomt wie kein anderes. Aktienkurse und Immobilienpreise schossen nach oben, aber das schien normal, schließlich ging es hier um die damals effizienteste Ökonomie der Welt. Auch in Japan schien eine neue Art des Wirtschaftens entdeckt worden zu sein - bis 1989 am Börsenplatz Kabutocho die Spekulationsblase platzte.

Es folgte eine bis heute andauernde Stagnation. Die Arbeitslosigkeit hat sich in Japan seit Anfang der Neunziger fast verdreifacht.Wird sich die Geschichte in Amerika und Europa wiederholen?

"Die Gefahr eines japanischen Szenarios ist ernst zu nehmen", meint ifo-Präsident Sinn. Laut einer Studie der Investmentbank Credit Suisse First Boston haben sich Aktienkurse, Investitionen, Konsum und Inflationsraten im Japan der achtziger und im Amerika der neunziger Jahre jeweils parallel entwickelt. Sollten sich die US-Konsumenten tatsächlich von den niedrigen Aktienkursen Angst einjagen lassen, könnten sich auch die Wachstumsraten und Arbeitslosenzahlen so schlecht entwickeln wie in Japan nach dem Börsencrash.

Ein Einbruch der amerikanischen Konsumnachfrage wäre das, was Ökonomen als negativen Nachfrageschock bezeichnen. Es käme zur Deflation: Die Unternehmen würden ihre Produkte nicht mehr los und wären gezwungen, ihre Preise zu senken. Was für sparsame Verbraucher wie ein Segen klingen mag, ist in Wahrheit eine Katastrophe. Wenn auf breiter Front die Preise von Autos, Fernsehern und Maschinen fallen, stellen viele Konsumenten ihre Einkäufe zurück, denn in ein paar Wochen ist ja alles noch viel billiger. Die Unternehmen investieren nicht mehr, weil sie nicht die anvisierten Preise erzielen können. Von ihren Schulden werden die Firmen schier erdrückt. Sie können ihre Kredite nicht mehr begleichen und gehen Pleite. Die Banken bekommen ihr Geld nicht zurück, sie gehen ebenfalls Pleite. Die Regierung muss mit Steuergeldern aushelfen, sonst bricht das ganze System zusammen.

Die amerikanische Zentralbank nimmt dieses pessimistische Szenario ziemlich ernst. Nicht weniger als 13 Forscher der Federal Reserve haben soeben eine Studie veröffentlicht, mit dem Titel Deflation vermeiden: Lehren aus der japanischen Erfahrung in den 90ern. Der Text ist geprägt von einem Begriff, der lange Zeit vergessen schien: die Liquiditätsfalle.

Der britische Ökonom John Maynard Keynes hatte dieses Phänomen schon vor dem Zweiten Weltkrieg untersucht. Normalerweise kann eine Zentralbank die Wirtschaft ankurbeln, sie mit Liquidität versorgen, indem sie die Leitzinsen senkt, an denen sich dann die Geschäftsbanken bei der Kreditvergabe orientieren. Konsumenten und Unternehmen können dann billig Schulden machen - Geld ausgeben lohnt sich wieder. Alan Greenspan hat das des Öfteren demonstriert. Seit Anfang vergangenen Jahres hat der Chef der amerikanischen Zentralbank elfmal die Zinsen gesenkt. Wer Autos oder Möbel auf Pump kaufte, musste kaum noch Zinsen zahlen. Ein Hauptgrund für die Kauflust der Amerikaner.

Herrscht in einer Wirtschaft jedoch erst einmal Deflation, dann helfen alle Zinssenkungen nichts mehr. Welches Unternehmen nimmt schon heute einen Kredit für eine neue Maschine auf, wenn es morgen für dasselbe Geld zwei Maschinen bekommt? Die Zentralbank kann die Wirtschaft nicht mehr ankurbeln. Sie steckt in der Liquiditätsfalle.

Die EZB reagiert zu spät

Deshalb, so die Studie der Fed, komme es darauf an, es gar nicht erst so weit kommen zu lassen. Zwar habe die japanische Zentralbank kräftig die Zinsen gesenkt, aber viel zu spät. Zwar habe die japanische Regierung durch höhere Staatsausgaben versucht die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln, aber nicht früh genug.

Dass die Amerikaner diese Fehler wiederholen, ist unwahrscheinlich. Alan Greenspan hat seine Bereitschaft zu Zinssenkungen oft genug bewiesen. Und auch Präsident Bush hat gezeigt, dass er Staatsschulden nicht scheut, wenn es darum geht, durch Steuersenkungen den Konsumenten Geld in die Taschen zu spülen.

Anders dagegen in Europa. "Die Parallelen zu Japan, vor allem auf der politökonomischen Ebene, sind zum Teil erschreckend", sagt Ulrich Beckmann, Volkswirt der Deutschen Bank in Frankfurt.

Tatsächlich erinnert das Verhalten der europäischen Regierungen und der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) auf fatale Weise an die Trägheit Japans. Auch im Jahr zwei nach dem Beginn der Kurseinbrüche am Aktienmarkt denken die Finanzminister noch immer allein daran, ihre Haushalte zu konsolidieren und weniger auszugeben. Ähnlich wie einst in Japan, wo es drei Jahre dauerte, bis der Staat die öffentlichen Investitionen erhöhte. Und die EZB sorgt sich seit ihrer Gründung weniger um fallende denn um steigende Preise. Ähnlich wie einst in Japan, wo die Zentralbank vier Jahre brauchte, um die Zinsen so weit zu senken wie Alan Greenspan in anderthalb Jahren.

"Dabei ist die Deflationsgefahr in Euroland ziemlich groß", sagt Dieter Wermuth, Europa-Volkswirt bei der japanischen Großbank UFJ. Zwar liegt die Preissteigerung in Deutschland noch bei einem Prozent, allerdings fällt die Inflationsmessung systematisch um bis zu 0,75 Prozent zu hoch aus. Das liegt daran, dass der offizielle Warenkorb, mit dem die Statistiker die Preissteigerung messen, nur alle paar Jahre aktualisiert wird. Mit der Zeit ersetzen aber die Verbraucher teurer gewordene Güter durch günstigere. Auch die Qualität der Güter verbessert sich permanent: Die Ausstattung in den Autos wird luxuriöser, die Speicherkapazität der PCs nimmt zu. Die Verbraucher bekommen oft also mehr, wenn sie mehr zahlen müssen. All das ignoriert das amtliche Messverfahren.

Ökonom Wermuth empfiehlt der EZB daher eine "rasche Zinssenkung". Eine Forderung, der sich auch ifo-Präsident Sinn anschließt - sollte der von seinem Institut ermittelte Geschäftsklimaindex im kommenden Monat weiter zurückgehen.

Die Schweizer Notenbank hat es am vergangenen Freitag bereits vorgemacht. Sie senkte ihren Leitzins um 0,5 Prozentpunkte auf 0,75 Prozent. Explizite Begründung: die Turbulenzen an den internationalen Aktienmärkten, welche die Konjunktur in Mitleidenschaft ziehen.

Die EZB dagegen schweigt noch. Beobachter in Frankfurt gehen jedoch davon aus, dass EZB-Präsident Wim Duisenberg und sein Chefvolkswirt Ottmar Issing langsam umdenken. "Das Forschungspapier der Fed", so Deutsche-Bank-Ökonom Beckmann, "wird auch im Eurotower sorgfältig studiert werden."

******************************************************************************************************************************************************

Gold und Silber hat Zukunft!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Ein Schelm, wer sich dabei nichts böses denkt.

[niemandweiss]

... und der Rest, der das Eulenspiegelspiel mitspielt, ergo waren wieder mal GWINNMITNAHMEN angesagt.

Thaiguru - es interessiert mich nicht, was in zwei Jahren womöglich ist. Ich wollte eigentlich JETZT aufgrund DIESER WIRTSCHAFTLICHEN SCHWÄCHE von Gold profitieren und nicht VORHER bankrott gehen!!!

[niemandweiss]

schauen wir uns halt mal die letzten zehn Jahre an ....




die Gold-Chartentwicklung in Crashzeiten folgt morgen, wird aber auch nicht gerade ermutigen

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

So, nachdem ich sehe, dass die lease-rate heute für 1y-Gold im Vergleich zu früher sehr kräfig gestiegen ist, wird der POG heute noch kräftig absacken. So zwischen $287 bis $292 ist mein Tip.

Gold shorten wär sicher kein Fehler!

[aldibroker]

solange die Hedges von den Mineninsidern weiter abgebaut werden, würde ich den kurzfristigen Goldpreis nur auf grund aktueller Markttechnik nicht überbewerten. Gerade hat GFI ein neues Rekordergebnis vorgelegt.

Gruss Aldi

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

@aldibroker

Jaja, da bin ich schon ganz bei Dir. Meine Prognose bezieht sich tatsächlich nur auf heute Nachmittag. Ich weiß nicht, ob auch Du diese Beobachtungen gemacht hast, aber der POG ließ immer nach, wenn die lease-rates stiegen. Stelle Dir mal die Charts gegenüber! Das ist noch eine der ganz wenigen Korrelationen in denn Märkten, die ich dzt. erkennen kann.

Immer nach dem Abfall zog der POG ("unmanipuliert") doch wieder an. Er kam halt leider nicht mehr auf alte Höhen. Aber das scheint ja der Sinn des Spiels.

Es bleibt jedenfalls sehr spannend. Interessant eigentlich, wie sehr sich die Börsen von fundamentalen Tatsachen lösen können. Die Frage ist nur, wie dauerhaft dieser Zustand ist.

Auffällig ist auch für mich, dass PAAS steigt, trotz des stark sinkenden Silberpreises. Erklärungen?

[ThaiGuru]

Aus dem Thread von Orgasmatron entliehen!

Zeigt deutlich, dass starke Gründe für einen Betrugsverdacht bei Worldcom vorliegen müssen.

Jetzt warten wir darauf, dass auch die Gold-, und Silberpreis "Betrüger?", hoffentlich eines baldigen Tages auch verhaftet verden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://62.146.24.165/news/?show=76996

Datum: 01.08. 15:33

USA: FBI verhaftet WorldCom Vorstände

Das FBI hat den Finanzvorstand von WorldCom, Scott Sullivan, und den früheren Controller David Myers in Haft genommen. Beide müssen sich rechtlichen Schritten gegenüberstellen, die wegen Bilanzfälschung bei dem Telekomkonzern erhoben wurden. Die genauen Details würden im Laufe des Tages bekannt gegeben werden.

© Godmode-Trader.de

[ThaiGuru]

Dear all G9999.COM registered members:

Does the Liberalisation of China`s Gold Market Provide Opportunities for Enhancing the Value Chain?

RNA is proud to announce that this year`s RNA Annual Gold & Precious Metals Conference ("Gold Conference") will be held in Shanghai, PRC, on Monday 9th September 2002. This is the 6th such conference organised by RNA Holdings Limited, together with Gold Field Mineral Services Limited ("GFMS") and the Beijing Gold Economic Centre, and follows on from the tremendous success of previous events held in Beijing, Shenzhen and Zhaoyuan.

The conference has firmly established itself as a major event in the Chinese precious metals calendar, with the number of participants having grown rapidly since 1997. Further recognition of its importance is reflected in the fact that the number of sponsors has also expanded. In 2001 these included Investec Bank of South Africa, Rand Refinery, N.M.Rothschild & Sons (Hong Kong) Limited, Standard Bank of UK, Brinks, Trasy Gold Ex Limited amongst others.

As usual, this year`s conference will begin with the launching of GFMS` "Gold Survey 2002" Chinese Language Edition. The Gold Survey has established itself as the most authoritative publication on the world gold industry, and the Chinese language edition has served to expand its already extensive distribution. Since it was first published 5 years ago, the Chinese Language Edition has become the premier source of information for the mainland market.

In addition to the launch of the Survey, a number of prestigious speakers will also make presentations. The focus of the conference this year will be on how the market might best add value post liberalisation, and questions such as "Will hedging become a feature of the mining industry?" "What opportunities does the opening up of the market create for manufacturers and retailers?" and "How can the market reduce its exposure to movements in the gold price?" will be addressed.

In terms of the venue, Shanghai is not only the major commercial centre in China, but also has extensive ties to the gold and silver industries. The city hosts the only gold and silver exchanges on the mainland, and in addition to this has an wide-ranging manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing infrastructure. This year`s conference will be held at the Shanghai International Convention Centre in Pudong, strategically located on the river opposite the famous Bund.

For more information on this year`s conference, please visit the following website:-

http://www.hing-fung.com/conference/index.htm

Also, to register your seat at the conference, you may complete and return the Registration Form, which is available for download at the following hyperlink:

http://www.hing-fung.com/conference/Reg_form.pdf

Come and witness the dramatic and dynamic changes that are taking place in China`s precious metals industry.

Regards

RNA Holdings Limited

Raymond Chan John Stewart Adams
Chairman Conference Chairman

[ThaiGuru]

Fast jeder glaubt es jetzt eigentlich schon!

Das es mit den Gold-, Silber-, und Aktienpreisen nicht ganz mit rechten Dingen zugehen kann.

Wenn ich den heutigen Goldchartverlauf betrachte, zuerst runter under 300.- Dollar, dann wieder 6 Dollar rauf, und dann wieder ..... warten wirs doch besser ab, wie es heute ausgeht.

Vielleicht wäre es für alle in Gold-,und Silberaktien, investiert gebliebenen zu überlegen, ob es nicht von Vorteil sein könnte, seine Gold-, und Silberminen, durch einen Gold Put, ja Put, nicht Call, abzusichern, falls die Goldpreis Manipulateure, vorübergehend die Oberhand gewinnen sollten.

Die Ansicht eines guten Bekannten von mir, dass die "Obrigkeit" mit allen Mitteln versuchen könnte, die US Indizes, DOW, Nasdaq, S&P nach oben zu bringen, um für die eventuel anstehende "Befreiung" des Irak, und vielleicht auch anderer Länder?, börsentechnisch eine bessere Ausgangslage zu schaffen, kann ich sehr gut nachvollziehen.

Dass bei einem militärischen Vorgang gegen den Irak, die Börsen stark fallen würden, ist stark anzunehmen. Falls die Märkte aber zuerst auf eine Rally geschickt werden, und der DOW bis im Herbst wieder, sagen wir mal 9500 Punkte stehen würde, wäre dann ein Fall wieder auf 7800 Punkte besser zu verkraften, als ein Fall von den jetzigen Ständen der Indizes ausgesehen.

Möchte ausdrücklich betonen, dass es sich bei den obigen Aeusserungen nur um meine persönlichen Ueberlegungen, und die meines Bekannten handelt, und dass unsere Gedankenspiele nicht unbedingt auch so eintreten müssen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[/b][/u]

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020801/10090_1.html

Thursday August 1, 8:08 am Eastern Time

Press Release

SOURCE: Hecla Mining Company

Hecla Reports Best Quarterly Performance in More Than a Decade, More Production and Lower Costs

For the Period Ended June 30, 2002

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 1, 2002--Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL - News; NYSE:HL-PrB) today reported second quarter 2002 net income of $4.8 million, compared to a net loss of $1.6 million in the second quarter of 2001.

Cash flow provided by operating activities increased more than 60% during the comparative period, from $3.8 million in last year`s second quarter to $6.1 million in the second quarter of 2002. Gross profit more than tripled compared to the second quarter of 2001, from $2.4 million to $7.9 million in the second quarter of 2002. For the first six months of 2002, Hecla reported net income of $5.2 million, compared to net income of $8 million in the first half of 2001. Last year`s first half was positively impacted by the nonrecurring benefit of a gain of $13 million on the sale of the majority of Hecla`s industrial minerals operations.

Arthur Brown, Hecla`s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Hecla`s second quarter 2002 results were the best in recent history. This is further evidence that Hecla has turned around. We produced more gold than in any other quarter during Hecla`s 111-year history. Net income from continuing operations was the highest it`s been for 12 years. We had the highest quarterly precious metals revenue since 1990 and we had the lowest costs per ounce of silver since we began calculating it this way in 1986. Obviously, we`re extremely pleased with the company`s excellent performance this quarter and in the first half of the year." Brown continued, "Our low-cost operations will keep us on track for profitability, regardless of the volatility of precious metals prices. We will continue to work at what we do best...mine gold and silver safely, efficiently and at a low cost."

Highlights

29% increase in gold production quarter-on-quarter, 41% increase for the first six months, while maintaining low production costs
Record low silver costs per ounce, with a 39% decrease in the average total cash cost per ounce of silver quarter-on-quarter
Increased 2002 production estimates
Gross profit from operations more than tripled
Successful tender offer for Hecla`s Preferred B stock
Exciting exploration developments
Dramatically increased cash and cash equivalents
26% decrease in total debt
Operations

Excellent performance from operations in the first half of the year prompted Hecla to increase its 2002 production estimates to approximately 215,000 ounces of gold and 8 million ounces of silver.

In the second quarter, Hecla produced 65,323 ounces of gold, bringing the first half total to 121,725 ounces of gold produced, a 41% increase over the first half of 2001. Average total cash costs improved compared to last year, at $131 per ounce of gold for the second quarter and $134 per ounce of gold for the first half of the year.

The La Camorra operation in Venezuela is the main contributor to Hecla`s gold segment, producing 45,869 ounces of gold in the second quarter and a total of 86,086 ounces in the first half of the year. La Camorra has become a steady performer for Hecla, producing at these levels for the past year.

Hecla`s silver production totaled 2.3 million ounces in the second quarter and 4.3 million ounces for the first half of 2002. The average total cash cost per ounce of silver decreased 39% during the second quarter compared to the same period last year, from $3.30 per ounce to $2.00 per ounce. For the first six months, the average total cash cost per ounce of silver was among the lowest in the industry, at $2.17 per ounce.

Hecla`s Greens Creek mine in Alaska, in which the company holds a 29.73% interest, produced 1.7 million ounces of silver for Hecla`s account in the first half of 2002, at an average total cash cost of $1.68, including by-product credits.

The San Sebastian mine in central Mexico has produced about 1.6 million ounces of silver during the first six months of the year at just $1.38 average total cash cost per ounce. San Sebastian`s ore grade has increased since it has been in full production, and it mined an average grade of nearly 24 ounces of silver per ton and 0.29 ounce of gold per ton for the first six months of the year.

Hecla`s Lucky Friday mine contributed just over 1 million ounces of silver for the first half of 2002, at an average total cash cost of $4.29 per ounce, excluding approximately $0.4 million in costs classified as care-and-maintenance costs. Costs have continued to decrease at Lucky Friday, and second quarter costs were reduced to $3.91 total cash cost per ounce, excluding approximately $0.2 million in costs classified as care-and-maintenance costs. This is a 20% improvement over the second quarter of last year.

Brown said, "We spent about $6 million on capital expenditures at our properties during the first six months of the year, and we expect to maintain approximately that level of expenditures through the remainder of the year."

After factoring in the charge for unpaid preferred share dividends of $2 million, Hecla`s income applicable to common shareholders in the second quarter of 2002 was $2.7 million, or 4 cents a share, compared to a loss of $3.6 million, or 5 cents a share, for the same period last year. For the first half of 2002, including $4 million in unpaid dividend charges, Hecla reported income applicable to shareholders of $1.2 million, or 2 cents a share, compared to $4 million, or 6 cents a share, in the first half of 2001.

Exploration

In June, Hecla reported continued drilling success in central Mexico, at the Cerro Pedernalillo gold/silver project. Multiple targets have been identified in the area and Hecla President and Chief Operating Officer Phillips S. Baker, Jr. said, "Our exploration progress at Cerro Pedernalillo is exciting. Preliminary evaluation indicates a possible ore shoot there. We will continue our activity at Cerro Pedernalillo and hope to define an indicated gold and silver resource by the end of the year. We are intensifying our exploration efforts overall and expect to spend about $5 million this year on Hecla`s exploration projects."

On June 10, Hecla entered into an agreement on Great Basin Gold`s Hollister Block deposit in Nevada`s golden Carlin Trend, subject to a final definitive agreement. The two companies would participate in a 50/50 joint venture arrangement, where Hecla funds the exploration and development stages of the underground gold project, and then earns 115% of its investment back before paying Great Basin Gold a sliding royalty. Baker said, "This is a project that is low risk in terms of getting our investment back, and the additional potential there is tremendous. It is another underground, narrow vein, high-grade deposit that Hecla is expert at developing. The Hollister Block is exactly the kind of low capital, low risk, high potential return type of project we do well."

Tender Offer

On June 13, Hecla announced an offer to holders of its Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred stock to exchange each of their Preferred shares for 7 shares of Hecla common stock. The offer closed on July 25, 2002. Preliminary results showed that approximately 1.55 million shares of the Preferred B stock were tendered, representing approximately 68% of the total number of preferred shares outstanding. As a result of the exchange, the outstanding shares of common stock will increase from about 75 million to about 86 million. Approximately 745,000 shares of the Preferred B stock remain issued and outstanding. Future annual preferred dividends of approximately $5.4 million were eliminated by the exchange. Also eliminated were undeclared but accumulated dividends of approximately $10.9 million. Hecla will be required to take a one-time noncash dividend charge against earnings in the third quarter in the amount of approximately $17.6 million as a result of the tender offer. Although no cash was distributed or debt incurred, accounting principles require the disclosure and presentation on the income statement of the fair market value of the additional shares exchanged above the original exchange ratio of 3.2 shares of common stock for each share of Preferred B stock. This dividend is noncash and does not impact the total equity on the company`s balance sheet.

Annual Meeting

Hecla held its annual meeting of shareholders on May 10, 2002, at which Preferred B shareholders elected David J. Christensen and Dr. Anthony P. Taylor to the board of directors. Shareholders also approved increasing the number of authorized shares of common stock to 200 million and the selection of BDO Seidman, LLP as Hecla`s auditor for 2002. The meeting was adjourned until July 18, 2002, at which time shareholders overwhelmingly approved an amendment to the existing 1995 Stock Incentive Plan, an amendment to the Corporation`s existing Stock Plan for Nonemployee Directors and an adoption of a Key Employee Deferred Compensation Plan. About 73% of the shares present at the adjourned meeting were voted in favor of the three proposals.

Financial

Hecla`s financial condition continues to improve, with a current ratio at the end of the quarter of 1.4:1 compared to 0.99:1 at December 31, 2001. In addition, Hecla`s cash position increased to $13.1 million at the end of the second quarter. As of June 30, 2002, total debt had decreased 26% since the beginning of the year, to $14.1 million.

During the second quarter, Hecla was notified by the New York Stock Exchange that the company`s average stock price is within the NYSE`s minimum requirement and therefore is viewed as "in good standing" with the NYSE.

Hecla Mining Company, headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Venezuela and Mexico. A 111-year-old company, Hecla has long been well known in the mining world and financial markets as a quality silver and gold producer. Hecla`s common and preferred shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols HL and HL-PrB.

Statements made which are not historical facts, such as anticipated payments, production, sales of assets, exploration results and plans, costs, prices or sales performance are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, anticipated, expected or implied. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, metals price volatility, volatility of metals production, project development risks and ability to raise financing. Refer to the company`s Form 10-Q and 10-K reports for a more detailed discussion of factors that may impact expected future results. The company undertakes no obligation and has no intention of updating forward-looking statements.

Hecla Mining Company news releases can be accessed on the Internet at: http://www.hecla-mining.com

[manfred1_I]

Was meint ihr was uns bei Gold und vor allen Dingen
Silber noch bevorsteht.
Schaut mal bei kitco.com vorbei.

U.S. Housing Bust Another Step Towards $1,255 Gold

By Ned W. Schmidt CFA,CEBS
July 30 2002


In past articles we have talked about inflation somewhat. Now we come to the important message in all this. We need to now turn to how "inflation" relates to the coming U.S. Housing Bust and the future for Gold, a simple motivation. Federal Reserve policy is established based on a faulty assumption that the CPI is an adequate measure of price stability. That measure is likely to rise causing the Federal Reserve to respond by tightening monetary policy and bursting an already shaky Housing Bubble..

Summarizing our analytical plan probably would be helpful. In this article we will generally pursue the first items of the following list. We will then conclude this initial discussion in the next issue of THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT and with a follow up article here at www.kitco.com.

1. The CPI is a faulty measure of price stability.

2. The weak CPI has been used as justification for low interest rates.

3. Monetary stimulation has caused a Housing Bubble that is already showing

signs of weakness.

4. The CPI is likely to give much higher readings.

5. Higher CPI readings will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

6. Higher interest rates will pop the Greenspan Housing Bubble.

7. Housing prices in the U.S. will collapse by ??%, or more.

8. U.S. economy will enter second economic dip, approaching depression conditions.

9. Foreign investors will dump U.S. securities, particularly those related to housing

like the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

10. The U.S. dollar will undergo forced devaluation by global financial markets.

11. Your Gold holdings will become worth a lot more as Gold takes further

steps toward US$1,255.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020801/200208010827000462_1.html

Thursday August 1, 8:27 am Eastern Time

Dow Jones Business News

Gold Fields Eying Right Time For US Capital Increase


JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South Africa `s second largest gold producer Gold Fields Ltd. wants to utilize its recent listing on the New York Stock Exchange to raise capital "but only when the time is right," Chief Executive Ian Cockerill said Thursday.

Speaking at an analysts` briefing on the company`s fourth-quarter and year-end results in June, he said funds will have to be raised outside South Africa for international expansion.

"We have a strong balance sheet and low debt and will at some stage need to raise foreign capital to continue our internationalization," said Cockerill.

He declined to specify when the company would launch a capital increase, how much it planned to raise and under what terms.

Earlier Thursday, the miner reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $112.2 million, compared with a loss of $194.7 million a year earlier and a net profit in the third quarter of $98.1 million. Net earnings for full fiscal year 2002 were $301.5 million, compared with a loss of $119.2 million the previous year.

Cockerill said the liquidity of Gold Fields` shares has increased sharply since the group moved its U.S. secondary listing from the Nasdaq to the NYSE on May 9 .

The average daily turnover of Gold Fields shares was 2.4 million on the Nasdaq between February and April, compared with 3.5 million on the NYSE from May 9 to July 31 .

At the end of June, 29% of Gold Fields shares were held in North America, 27% in South Africa , 15% in Europe, 9% elsewhere in the world and 20% by London - listed mining giant Anglo American PLC.

While South Africa still accounts for 67% of Gold Fields` 4.1 million ounces of annual gold output, the international component of production from Australia and Ghana has risen to 33% from 13% in mid-2001.

"We are a much more diversified group than we were a year ago and will continue with this strategy," said Cockerill.

Chief Financial Officer Nick Holland said cash holdings of around two billion rand ($1=ZAR10.2600) and low debt put the company in a strong position to gear up its balance sheet.

"If we add near-cash investments of around ZAR800 million, we are essentially ungeared," he said.

The company`s current debt position is around ZAR1.9 billion, much of it taken on to finance Australian mine purchases last year.

Commenting on the international gold market, Cockerill admitted he was disappointed at bullion`s retreat to around $300 a troy ounce from $330/oz in June.

"The flight to liquidity around the world has forced a lot of investors to sell assets," he said.

He said he was optimistic about gold`s medium-term future due to global political and economic instability, continued unwinding of hedge positions, few new hedges being entered into and the weak pipeline for new gold projects around the world.

Around 1205 GMT , Gold Fields shares were trading 7.4% lower than Wednesday`s close at ZAR100.99.





-By Angus Macmillan, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone], angus.macmillan@
dowjones.com

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

So, nun bin ich mal gespannt, was in den nächsten Minuten das PPT so alles aus dem Ärmel schüttelt.

Ich fürchte, dass denen eher Kaffee und Zigaretten schneller ausgehen als Geld und Gold! So möchte es mir einmal gehen!

[ThaiGuru]

Und es geht munter weiter mit dem Wirtschafts- Aufschwung?

Das Problem ist nur, es glauben täglich weniger
Leute daran. Auch die Banken scheinen nicht sehr zuversichtlich was die gewünschte Wirtschaftserholung anbelangt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News


08/01 06:33

Deutsche Bank, BNP, Barclays Expect No Profit Rebound

By Silje Skogstad


London, Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, BNP Paribas SA and Barclays Plc, three of Europe`s biggest lenders, reported lower earnings and said they see no signs of improvement.

Banks are reporting shrinking net income as corporate defaults drive up loan losses. Slumping stock markets also are battering profits because Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas and Barclays depend on revenue from investment banking.

``The current market environment is a challenge for all of us,`` Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said in a letter to shareholders. ``Going forward, we take a cautious view on the world`s financial markets and major economies.``

Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank posted a 76 percent slump in second-quarter net income after more than doubling provisions for bad loans to 588 million euros ($575 million).

BNP Paribas, France`s No. 1 bank, said its second-quarter profit dropped 13 percent and Barclays of the U.K. said its first- half earnings fell more than expected.

``It`s quite difficult for banks at the moment,`` said Carsten Gerlinger, who helps manage about 800 million euros at DZ International in Luxembourg, which holds Deutsche Bank shares. ``Perhaps, we will still see some more bad news.``

Slashing Jobs

Deutsche Bank, Europe`s largest lender, said second-quarter net income fell to 204 million euros, or 32 cents a share, from 834 million euros, or 1.67 euros, in the year-earlier period. The company is slashing costs, including the elimination of more than 14,000 jobs, and shedding assets to try to bolster earnings.

Pretax profit rose 34 percent to 2.2 billion euros, exceeding analysts` estimates. It was boosted by a 1.9 billion-euro gain from selling assets, including shares of Munich Re. Shares of Deutsche Bank were up 3 percent at 59.85 euros at 11:30 a.m. London time.

The company`s earnings were crimped by $241 million in loans to WorldCom Inc., the largest U.S. company to file for bankruptcy protection. It`s also a lender to Babcock Borsig AG, a German engineering company that has sought protection from creditors. The number of German companies going broke rose 25 percent in the first half.

``There might be some relief that provisions weren`t higher,`` said Andy Killean, who helps oversee $26 billion at Britannic Asset Management in Glasgow.

At Allianz AG, ``large-scale insolvencies and the ongoing difficulties in Latin America continue to weigh on the credit,`` the company said. The Munich-based insurer said it may eliminate 3,000 more jobs at its unprofitable Dresdner Bank unit after a second-quarter loss of 350 million euros.

Argentine Loans

Paris-based BNP Paribas said second-quarter earnings dropped to 1 billion euros, or 1.15 euros a share, from 1.16 billion euros, or 1.36 euros, in the year-earlier period.

The first half was marked by ``an unfavorable and unpredictable economic and stock market environment,`` Chairman Michel Pebereau said. He said he sees ``no reason to anticipate a change in the situation for months to come.``

BNP Paribas canceled a plan to spend 600 million euros to hire more equity analysts and bankers because of the business slowdown. The company`s stock was up 0.4 percent at 47.05 euros.

``We`ve just come through an incredible upside in the late 1990s and now we`re bubbling around the bottom,`` said Logie Cassells, who helps manage more than $7 billion at Old Mutual. ``The investment banking side of the business looks awful.``

Barclays Plc, Britain`s No. 3 bank by assets, said first-half profit fell 5.6 percent to 1.23 billion pounds ($1.92 billion), or 18.5 pence a share, from 1.31 billion pounds, or 19.6p, in the year-earlier period. Analysts were forecasting a 1 percent slide in earnings.

Shares of Barclays were down 5.9 percent at 460p.

The London-based lender set aside 713 million pounds for bad loans, including 104 million pounds for losses in Argentina, up from 498 million pounds a year ago.

``The second quarter was painful,`` Chief Executive Officer Matthew Barrett said on a call with reporters. ``We were held back by the combined impact of the Argentina situation on provisions and the stock market decline.``

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 21:54, Donnerstag 01.08.2002

Shell mit Gewinneinbruch von knapp 40 Prozent im zweiten Quartal

LONDON

Das schwache Raffinerie-Geschäft hat den Gewinn des Mineralölkonzerns Royal Dutch/Shell im zweiten Quartal um knapp 40 Prozent einbrechen lassen. Nun werden mehr als 2000 Stellen in Grossbritannien, Deutschland und den USA gestrichen.
Der Nettogewinn des britisch-niederländischen Konzerns brach binnen Jahresfrist um 38 Prozent auf 2,202 Mrd. Dollar ein, wie das Unternehmen bekannt gab. Dies lag am unteren Ende der Erwartungen der Analysten.

Das Ziel, die Kosten der Gruppe jährlich um 3 Prozent zu senken, wird nach Angaben von Shell-Chef Phil Watts trotz des geplanten Stellenabbaus nur schwer zu erreichen sein.
An der schwachen Londoner Börse verloren Shell-Aktien knapp 5 Prozent auf 415 Pence; die Titel von Royal Dutch gaben in Amsterdam ebenfalls rund 5 Prozent nach auf 44,45 Euro. In den letzten zwölf Monaten haben sich die Titel mit einem 30-prozentigen Kursrückgang deutlich schlechter entwickelt als die Konkurrenz.

Auch bei BP und Exxon Mobil brachen die Gewinne im vergangenen Quartal kräftig ein. Grund war das schwache Raffinerie-Geschäft. Exxon hatte einen Gewinnrückgang von über 40 Prozent gemeldet, BP von 36 Prozent. 011942 au

01.08.2002 19:43, SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

Wieder 3000 Arbeitslose mehr, die bald mit Steuergeldern bezahlt werden dürften!

Wirtschaftsaufschwung "???"

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 22:55, Donnerstag 01.08.2002

Dresdner Bank steht vor einem weiterem Stellenabbau

FRANKFURT - Die Dresdner Bank will noch mehr Personal als bislang geplant abbauen. Bis zu 3000 Stellen könnten betroffen sein, sagte der Dresdner Bank-Chef Bernd Fahrholz in Frankfurt.

Betroffen sind vor allem Arbeitsplätze im Investmentbanking. Bislang hatte die Dresdner Bank einen Abbau von 7800 der derzeit 50 900 Stellen angekündigt.
Fahrholz betonte, dass er keine betriebsbedingten Kündigungen ausschliessen könne. Mit dem Personalabbau und weiteren Massnahmen will die Bank insgesamt 2 Mrd. Euro ab kommendem Jahr sparen. 011114 aug

01.08.2002 11:16, SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 23:03, Donnerstag 01.08.2002

USA sichern Uruguay wegen Wirtschaftskrise Unterstützung zu. (Ganz uneigennützig wohl nicht?TG)

WASHINGTON - Angesichts der sich verschlechternden Wirtschaftslage in Uruguay haben die USA ihre Unterstützung zugesagt. Washington will sich beim Internantionalen Währungsfonds (IWF) für zusätzliche Gelder für Uruguay einsetzen.

Uruguay zeige solide Wirtschaftsleistungen und verdiene für seine Bemühungen um eine gesunde Wirtschaft internationale Unterstützung, hiess es beim US-Finanzministerium. Die Regierung in Montevideo verlängerte derweil die Schliessung der Banken und Finanzmärkte, die sie am Dienstag angeordnet hatte, nachdem der Peso erheblich gegenüber dem Dollar an Wert eingebüsst hatte.

Argentinien mit einem Wachstumsrückgang von 10 Prozent, Venezuela (minus 3 Prozent) und Uruguay (minus 4 Prozent) sind am schlimmsten von der Wirtschaftskrise in Südamerika betroffen. Die Probleme schwappen aber auch auf europäische Unternehmen über.

Die Krise in Lateinamerika zehrt an den Gewinnen der spanischen Grossbanken. Die zwei führenden Geldinstitute des Landes revidierten bei der Vorlage ihrer Halbjahresbilanzen die Prognosen für dieses Jahr deutlich nach unten.

Wie die Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) in Madrid mitteilte, geht das Unternehmen für 2002 von einem Gewinn von 2,15 Mrd. Euro (3,11 Mrd. Fr.) aus, 9 Prozent weniger als im Vorjahr.

Zuvor hatte auch die Santander Central Hispano einen Gewinnrückgang registriert. Für dieses Jahr erwartet die Grossbank statt einer Gewinnsteigerung von 10 Prozent nun einen Rückgang um denselben Prozentsatz auf 2,25 Mrd. Euro.
Beide Banken führten die Gewinneinbussen auf die schlechte Wirtschaftslage in Argentinien und anderen Staaten Lateinamerikas sowie auf die Abwertung der lateinamerikanischen Währungen zurück. 311836 jul

31.07.2002 18:37, SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

Habt ihr in meinem letzten Posting zu Uruguay, den vielbedeutenden Satz auch gelesen?

"Die Regierung in Montevideo verlängerte derweil die Schliessung der Banken und Finanzmärkte, die sie am Dienstag angeordnet hatte, nachdem der Peso erheblich gegenüber dem Dollar an Wert eingebüsst hatte"


Kommt Euch dieser Satz nicht auch etwas "argentinisch" vor?

Bei uns in Deutschland, oder in der Schweiz, und Oesterreich, wäre so etwas doch glatt unmöglich?


Gold und Silber, hat Zukunft!



Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

August 1 - Gold $304 up $1.10 - Silver $4.57 down 2 cents

Gold Recovers From Trip Below $300 To Close Higher

As I mentioned last week, we are closer to the big move in gold now than we were a few weeks ago when gold was trading in the $320’s. The reason for that assessment is The Gold Cartel’s financial problems are growing in intensity by the week (See various input below).

Gold came in lower this morning and then was taken down below $300 for a brief period of time. When poor economic news was announced at 8:30 EDT, gold rebounded very quickly and wiped out a $5 loss as the dollar was tagged. However, as soon as it managed to get up $2 on the day, the goons showed up again to cap the advance.

This Gold-eagle post by Mike Bolser says it all. When Morgan (cabal) loses its grip, gold heads towards $800/$1,000:

Date: Thu Aug 01 2002 13:26
Winston (from Sector at USA Gold) ID#103450:
-
"This Master Plan was put into place for good in the month of June 1996 when the cabal [Assembled by the Fed] succeeded by their concerted selling, in breaking the 200 day moving average of the price of gold to the downside. Thus they had demonstrated a full control of the price of gold.

Having grasped the utopian goal of no inflation through a manipulated gold price, the Fed and it`s acolytes began to figuratively rape and pillage the investment landscape.

Interest rate derivatives exploded 225% at JPMorgan Chase that quarter because there now was no threat of higher interest rates because the last remaining force that might move the dollar down, rising gold, had been vanquished. GSEs through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded for the same reasons...it was a sure thing, once higher interest rates were out of the picture.

These neo-alchemists forgot to tell their Master of the Universe one little thing.

They forgot that it would be necessary to sell tonnes and tonnes of a limited physical gold resource in order to keep this whole ponzi scheme afloat. So the IMF wrote rules to double count the central bank gold reserves in order to "Inflate " the actual metal deposits [IMF Statistical Accounting Seminar October 1999 Santiago, Chile].

That`s not the only coc*roach between the Boston and the Crème Pie.

The gold derivative "assets" [$41 Billion worth] on JPMs books aren`t really assets at all since they came from a loan from the US Treasury and Fed. They must according to GAAP rules be called a liability [The conflict between IMF and GAAP meets HERE].

So Mr. Harrison, JPMs CEO, faces a dilemma on August 14, 2002. Does he certify that the gold derivatives are assets or liabilities. He could go to jail if he chooses the wrong accounting "door". "

-END-

It will not go unnoticed that gold rejected $300 with fervor. The gold bull market move should be on track again, the correction over.
The gold shares popped nicely too. The XAU closed at 62.07, up 1.53, while the HUI rose 2.05 to 109.40.


This was a hoot earlier, a www.gold-eagle.com post:

CNBC INVESTMENT POLL RESULTS
(vronsky) Aug 01, 10:04

CNBC pooled its millions of listeners as to what they feel will be the best investment in the NEXT 12 months. Here are the results:

Stocks..................45%
GOLD..................22%
Cash.....................14%
Real Estate..........13%

With auditable distain CNBC commentator Mark Heines brayed "...and GOLD came in second, but historically is a bad investment."

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Gold Cartel has some very serious problems. The U.S. stock market worked off its oversold condition and now is headed for new low ground. The DOW fell 230 to 8506, while the NASDOG (1280, down 48) was clobbered all day long.
It struck me that the only DOW stock to close higher was J.P. Morgan Chase ($25.02, up 6 cents). The economic news was so bad the PPT must have figured it would do no good to support the Dow, so they just propped up Morgan. Citigroup was hit, closing at $32.30, down $1.06. The banking index closed 23 lower.

Washington, Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The pace of expansion in U.S. manufacturing slowed more than expected in July, an industry survey showed.

The Institute for Supply Management`s factory index fell to 50.5 last month from 56.2 the previous month. A level greater than 50 signals growth.

Slower consumer demand and a sluggish stock market are raising concerns that the economy`s rebound may be faltering. That may make companies reluctant to place orders and invest more in new equipment, economists said….

Construction spending unexpectedly fell in June, the second monthly decline, as work decreased on housing, offices, schools and highways. The 2.2 percent drop to $820.8 billion at an annual rate followed a 2 percent decline in May that was steeper than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Washington Post Foreign Service

Thursday, August 1, 2002; Page A01

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, July 31.

Several additional South American countries have been swept up in what is becoming the region`s worst economic crisis in two decades, igniting fears of a replay of the Latin American financial collapses of the early 1980s.

The crisis, which analysts had hoped would be contained to Argentina`s financial meltdown six months ago, has now spread to its neighbors Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.

It has threatened to engulf other politically unstable economies in the region as well, including Bolivia and Venezuela, where analysts predict deep recessions for this year….

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Ach ist das schööööööön!

[talvi]

@ThaiGuru

Habe ich früher auch oft geschrieben.

Dann kam um 14 Uhr die kalte Dusche.


Grüße Talvi

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 12:27, Freitag 02.08.2002

Bankenkrise in Uruguay führt zu Plünderungen

MONTEVIDEO - Nach der Schliessung von Banken und Finanzmärkten durch die Regierung ist es in Uruguay zu Plünderungen von Dutzenden Geschäften gekommen. In den nördlichen Vororten der Hauptstadt Montevideo wurden rund 30 Läden gestürmt.

In 16 Geschäften hätten die Diebe Ladenkassen und Regale ausgeräumt, teilte die Polizei mit. Bei rund 14 weiteren seien die Beamten rechtzeitig zur Stelle gewesen. Etwa 20 Menschen seien festgenommen worden.

In Montevideo habe eine Menschenmenge zudem eine Pizzeria und einen Supermarkt überfallen und leer geräumt, teilten die Behörden weiter mit. Händler und die Polizei verstärkten daraufhin die Kontrollen. Viele Geschäfte schlossen vorzeitig und liessen ihre Metallgitter herunter.

In Uruguay hat sich die Rezession zuletzt dramatisch verschärft. Die Geldreserven des Landes sind zu Dreiviertel aufgebraucht, weil die Regierung damit die Landeswährung zu stützen versuchte. Der Peso büsste seit Jahresbeginn mehr als 40 Prozent an Wert ein.

Die Arbeitslosigkeit beträgt in dem einst reichen Land mittlerweile 16 Prozent; in ärmeren Orten sind jedoch bis zu zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung ohne Arbeitsplatz. Am Dienstag zog die Regierung die Notbremse und erklärte die Banken bis Montag für geschlossen. 020210 aug

02.08.2002 02:12, SDA-ATS

[Blecheuro]

Das sind ja fast ähnliche Verhältnisse wie in Ostdeutschland:

Die Arbeitslosigkeit beträgt in dem einst reichen Land (Uruquay) mittlerweile 16 Prozent; in ärmeren Orten sind jedoch bis zu zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung ohne Arbeitsplatz. Am Dienstag zog die Regierung die Notbremse und erklärte die Banken bis Montag für geschlossen. 020210 aug

Nur hier in Deutschland juckt das niemand, noch niemand!

Und in deutschland haben die meisten noch Geld und kaufen trotzdem kein Gold. Woran mag das wohl liegen. Ist mir rätselhaft. Auch für Silber interessieren sich die meisten Deutschen nicht.

[ThaiGuru]

Fiat Money ohne Ende?

Gut für`s Gold!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www2.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&ei…

Schweizer Zeit 13:55, Freitag 02.08.2002

US-Senat billigt 355 Milliarden für Verteidigung

WASHINGTON - Der US-Senat hat grünes Licht für den grössten Anstieg des Verteidigungsetats "!!!! seit 20 Jahren !!!!" gegeben. Mit 95 zu 3 Stimmen billigte das Oberhaus des Kongresses ein Pentagon-Budget von 355,4 Milliarden Dollar für das Haushaltsjahr 2003.
Die Summe übertrifft den derzeitigen Etat um rund 35 Milliarden Dollar. Da das Abgeordnetenhaus eine abweichende Gesetzesversion verabschiedet hat, muss jetzt im Vermittlungsausschuss des Kongresses ein Kompromiss gefunden werden. 020310 aug

02.08.2002 03:11, SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mbendi.co.za/a_sndmsg/news_view.asp?P=0&PG=11&I=3…

St. Jude Resources announces significant gold intersections from South Benso concession in Ghana

St. Jude Resources Ltd. is pleased to announce high grade drill intersections from its South Benso concession in Ghana, West Africa, which is a joint venture project with Fairstar Explorations Inc. The results are from the Subriso Central and Subriso West gold deposits. The drilling is follow up to the new discovery zone announced May 29, 2002. The company is encouraged by the consistent above average grades across excellent mining widths, which continue to be returned from the Subriso area.

St. Jude Resources Ltd. is principally a gold exploration company focused on its two Gold Coast projects in Ghana, West Africa. The Hwini-Butre and South Benso gold deposits are located within the prolific Ashanti Gold Belt, host to several multi-million ounce deposits. An independent resource calculation by Watts, Griffis & McOuat ("WGM") has already blocked out 936,000 oz. of gold, (526,000 oz. indicated and 374,000 oz. inferred), on the company`s Hwini-Butre concession. Recommended follow up infill drilling, the results of which were announced March 27, 2002, was highly successful and included intersections of 12 meters of 32.08 g/t Au and 14 meters of 49.98 g/t Au.

WGM has been retained to re-calculate the size and grade of the deposits based on new results.

St. Jude is the operator on both the Hwini-Butre and South Benso concessions and exploration has been carried out under the technical direction of George Flach, V.P. Exploration, who is a Qualified Person (pursuant to the provisions of National Instrument 43-101) on the projects. Mr. Flach leads one of the more successful and experienced mineral exploration teams in Ghana, having discovered numerous deposits, which have been mined by Golden Star, Ashanti Goldfields, Gold Fields of South Africa, and Resolute Mining of Australia. Drilling has continued at all three of the Subriso deposits and is planned to continue later this year on Hwini-Butre targets. Results will be released as they become available.

No Stock Exchange has reviewed or accepts the responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Contact: St. Jude Resources Ltd. - Todd McMurray, 604/940-6565, 604/940-6566 (FAX).

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mbendi.co.za/a_sndmsg/news_view.asp?I=38898

Kingsgate Consolidated releases first resource estimate from Chatree gold mine in Thailand

PROSPECT A. FIRST RESOURCE ESTIMATE. 706,000 OUNCES OF CONTAINED GOLD, AN INCREASE OF 59% IN CHATREE RESOURCES.

PROSPECT A. FIRST RESOURCE ESTIMATE

The first independent estimate of gold and silver resources in Prospect A, has been completed by Hellman & Schofield Pty Ltd of Sydney.

The resource estimates are considered to closely approximate grades that will be recovered during mining and include dilution expected during mining. Preliminary cyanide bottle roll tests indicate recoveries of approximately 95%. The mineralisation, the subject of this resource estimate, has a strike length of 750 metres and is open at depth and to the north and south.

Mineralisation at Prospect A, located one kilometre north of Chatree Gold Mine, consists of low sulphidation epithermal quartz carbonate stockworks and fault breccia fill similar to that being mined at Chatree.

A new drilling program is planned to commence at Prospect A in early October 2002, which will infill between the more widely spaced holes and test extensions down dip and to the north and south.

RESOURCE STATUS, CHATREE GOLD MINE

Total resources at the Chatree Gold Mine, including Prospect A, at 31 July, 2002 were:

27,900,000 tonnes @ 2.0 g/t Au and 15 g/t Ag for 1,817,000 oz of Au and 13,645,000 oz Ag. These resources include low grade material. Cut-off grade for Chatree Mine resources 0.8 g/t Au. Cut-off grade for Prospect A, 0.7 g/t Au.

This is an increase of 59% in the Chatree Gold Mine resources

Total Reserves at Chatree Gold Mine at 30 June 2002 were:

7,700,000 tonnes @ 3.0 g/t Au and 13 g/t Ag for 743,000 oz of Au and 3,218,000 oz of Ag. Cut-off grade 0.8 g/t Au, USD260 per ounce gold price.

CHATREE GOLD MINE DRILLING PROGRAMS

Drilling has commenced in the vicinity of the existing Tawan and future Chantra Pits with 3 drilling rigs for the purpose of converting Inferred Resource blocks within and adjacent to the final pit shells to at least Indicated Resource status and to locate new mineralisation along strike and down dip. Data from the programs will allow resource and reserve estimate updates to aid in final pit design, mine scheduling, processing rates and plant expansions.

The resource and reserve estimates should be available in October.

FORECAST OF PRODUCTION. CHATREE GOLD MINE

Forecast production at the Chatree Gold Mine for the 2002/2003 financial year is approximately 160,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of approximately USD80 per ounce.

The resource estimations have been performed either by, or under the direction of, Dr P L Hellman PhD FAIG, a principal of Hellman & Schofield Pty Ltd, who is a Competent Person under the meaning of the JORC Code with respect to the mineralisation being reported. He has given his consent to the Public Reporting of these statements concerning Mineral Resource Estimates.

Information in this report which relates to geology, drilling and remaining resources and reserves is based on information compiled by Michael Garman, and Michael Diemar, employees of the Kingsgate Group who are Competent Persons under the meaning of the JORC Code with respect to the mineralisation being reported on. They have given their consent to the Public Reporting of these statements concerning geology, drilling and remaining resources and reserves.

For further information related to Kingsgate or the above release, please contact the undersigned at Tel [phone], Fax [phone].

ATTACHMENT 1

The following notes relate to issues which may have a bearing on the resource estimate process and results.

Resources have only been reported as either Indicated or Inferred by virtue of insufficient data for several key parameters that are currently being addressed. Notes on these and some key assumptions or other information are given below:

* There are no rock density data. Density values have been assumed from approximately 500 measurements from equivalent lithologies on strike several hundred metres to the south from the Chatree Mine. These values, by oxidation type, are 2.2 (wholly oxidised), 2.3 (transition) and 2.6 (primary). There are no closely spaced RC - DDH samples. Although there was no evidence for sample bias from over 500 sets of RC and DDH samples assessed for the Chatree Mine feasibility study, at Prospect A, there are some (< 5%) RC intervals affected by wet conditions that require further assessment.

* 119 holes were drilled in a drill spacing that varied from 20 x 25 m (east x north) in the western part of the prospect to 100 x 50 m in the eastern part of the prospect. 21 holes were by diamond coring, 36 holes were a combination of DDH tails on RC holes ("RCD" holes) and 62 holes were drilled entirely by RC.

* Numerous barren dykes cut the mineralisation and were similar to those observed in the Chatree Mine. It was assumed, on the basis of current successful mining practices at Chatree, that these thicker dykes will not contribute to dilution in a mining operation. Accordingly, the proportion of dykes in the deposit over approximately 2 metres in-hole length were estimated on a block by block basis and excluded from the resource estimates.

* A negative assay bias that affects approximately 70% of over 1000 mineralised intervals of holes drilled was recently identified. This may have contributed to a variable understatement of higher grades, particularly above 3 g/t Au. An assessment of the impact of this bias suggests that an increase of up to 7% in contained gold may result, at a 1 g/t Au cut-off, if the bias is corrected.

* The geology of the prospect is presently undergoing a detailed assessment. The structural and geological control of the deposit will become clearer with further closer-spaced drilling and synthesis of current geological data (such as collected oriented core data). The current interpretation is that the mineralisation is contained within a bedding controlled envelope dipping at 25 to 50 degrees east. Within this envelope the major blocks of mineralisation appear to be bedding controlled with a proportion of narrower steep westerly dipping (approx 70 degs) mineralised veins. There is also evidence for the presence of a set of mineralised structures dipping steeply to the north-east.

* The estimate has been completed using multiple indicator kriging to predict mine-recoverable resources supported by a separate ordinary kriged estimate using different Hellman & Schofield Pty Ltd personnel and software.

* Silver estimates are regarded as Inferred.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1…

02/08/2002 12:29 - (SA)

Gold sparkles as dollar slips

London - Gold shone on Friday morning in Europe as the dollar slipped against other currencies and producer selling seen earlier this week eased off, leaving prices with a chance to head up, traders said.

The spot price picked itself up from an overnight low of US$304.25 an ounce after Wall Street stocks took a dive on the back of gloomy economic data out of the United States, and the euro regained some of its strength against the dollar.

"It (gold) doesn`t quite have the safe-haven status as people would like it to have but, everyone seems to have a bit more confidence in it," one London trader said.(Eine von Intelligenz nur so strotzende Aussage,TG)

At 11:50 spot gold was quoted at $306.75/307.25 an ounce, against $304.35/304.85 at the close of business in New York on Thursday.

After a strong sell-off to four-month lows earlier this week, players squared their books ahead of the weekend, based on some firmness shown by the euro after the European Central Bank`s decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged.

Gold`s slide towards key psychological support at $300.00 this week prompted some activity from producers, but pressure from this source evaporated by Friday, traders said.

"We`re on the next move up, if we hold here, we should see $308 on the spot (market)," the trader said.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1144154-607…

Currency hedge ups Gold Fields` profits

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Justin Brown

Final earnings from Gold Fields, South Africa`s second largest gold miner, have been given a boost by windfall gains achieved from the mining group`s currency hedge book in Australia, analysts say.

The appreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar resulted in unrealised exchange rate gains of R297-million on currency financial instruments established by Gold Fields to protect the cash flows of its recently acquired Australian perations, they added.

"Gold Fields` latest results are very good and beat expectations because of windfall gains from their currency hedge book in Australia, which provided their earnings with a major boost.

The group`s operational performance was solid," said Leon Esterhuizen, UBS Warburg gold analyst.

Gold Fields` earnings beat the I-Net Bridge consensus forecast of 637 cents by 4% when it upped headline earnings per share to 662 cents for the year to June 2002 and, compared to the previous year, the miner increased earnings by 283% from 173 cents.

"The June quarter has been a great quarter for us," Ian Cockerill, Gold Fields Chief Executive Officer, said.

Cash at the end of the quarter amounted to R2.027-billion or $196-million, a 17% increase over the previous quarter.

"Gold Fields has a lot of cash and on a net basis we are ungeared," Nick Holland, Chief Financial Officer said.

During the year, Gold Fields grew its operations internationally by acquiring Australian miners Agnew and St Ives from WMC Resources and it also purchased Damang Gold Mine in Ghana from Australia`s Ranger Minerals as well as achieving exploration success at Artic Platinum in Finland.

As a result of the three acquisitions, debt at year-end was R1.886-billion.

As of year-end, Gold Fields was unhedged in terms of gold sales and expects to remain totally exposed to the bullion spot market.

Gold Fields listed on the New York Stock Exchange or NYSE on 9 May and former South African president Nelson Mandela rang the opening bell on Gold Fields` behalf. Gold Fields listed on the Nasdaq in 1999.

"We decided to list on the NYSE because it is the biggest stock exchange in the world and the most liquid," Holland said.
As a result of the NYSE listing, Gold Fields` US shareholding climbed to 29% from 24% before the listing.

On the other hand, the group`s South Africa shareholding has fallen from 75% in 1999 to 27% currently.

On the empowerment front, Gold Fields concluded three empowerment transactions: it entered into a joint venture with Mvelapanda Exploration, sold St Helena for R120-million and played a part in the African Rainbow Minerals Gold investment.

I-Net Bridge

[YoyoStock]

...scheiß Englisch verstehe nur die Hälfte

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mbendi.co.za/a_sndmsg/news_view.asp?P=0&PG=11&I=3…

IamGold Corporation announces Sadiola gold mine eliminates debt and forward sales in second quarter

Highlights:

- Sadiola retired all remaining debt and closed all remaining forward contracts in the quarter. Retirement of the debt will substantially increase Sadiola`s free cash flow available for reinvestment or distribution to shareholders.

- IAMGOLD`s attributable production for the second quarter amounted to 67,514 ounces at a total cash cost of US$166/oz. To June 30, 2002, attributable production was 143,537 ounces at a total cash cost of US$158/oz.

- The Sadiola Gold Mine produced 117,808 ounces (IAMGOLD`s share 44,767) of gold at a total cash cost of US$158/oz in the second quarter and 248,647 ounces (IAMGOLD`s share 94,486) of gold at a total cash cost of US$151/oz to June 30, 2002.

- The Yatela Gold Mine produced 56,868 ounces (IAMGOLD`s share 22,747) of gold at a total cash cost of US$183/oz in the second quarter and 122,628 ounces (IAMGOLD`s share 49,051) of gold at a total cash cost of US$171/oz to June 30, 2002.

- IAMGOLD`s consolidated cash and gold bullion position at June 30, 2002 stood at US$43.5 million, including US$29 million in corporate discretionary funds, held mainly in the form of gold. The Company`s gold money holdings amounted to 83,084 ounces of gold at June 30, 2002.

The CEO and CFO of IAMGOLD Corporation confirm the veracity and soundness of these financial and operating results and have provided the board of directors with a signed statement verifying this.

Production Update -Sadiola Gold Mine 100%:

The mine`s forecast for annual gold production is 503,000 ounces and gold sales of 510,000 compared to the budget of 547,000 ounces for production and sales. The forecast results from the lower than expected grade encountered in the second quarter and the reduced throughput experienced in the first half of the year due to the higher than expected percentage of hard oxide ore encountered. The mining contractor has been able to source additional equipment for the short term which will increase the production of soft oxides, while a crushing and screening plant that will enable Sadiola to treat stockpiled hard oxide ores and run-of-mine hard oxides will be commissioned by the middle of September. As a result of these two actions, Sadiola production will revert to full plant capacity rates from July onwards. Full capacity treatment rates were achieved in July, 2002.

After the Phase 1.1 plant modifications were commissioned in March, the mine operated in a batch mode basis longer than planned, i.e. to the middle of July, in terms of optimising the new circuit in respect of trade-offs between cyanide consumption, cyanide detoxification costs and gold recovery. The extra six weeks or so of batch processing affected planned gold production as it resulted in less sulphidic saprolite ("SS") ore, which carries a higher average grade than oxide ore, being treated than planned in the second quarter. The mine commenced continuous processing of mixed oxide and sulphidic saprolite ores on July 23, 2002. The mine continues to examine various avenues to increase its forecast gold output for the year.

To date, the SS plant optimisation process has determined that the unit profit in terms of trade off between gold production, cyanide cost and cyanide detoxification costs is maximised by a cyanide addition rate of l kg/tonne which results in a 76% SS recovery. The average monthly SS recovery varied between 69% and 79% for the second quarter during the batch process optimisation period.

Sadiola Gold Mine - Financial Instrument Position (100%):

All remaining forward contracts were closed out at an after tax loss of US$1.5 million during the quarter. IAMGOLD`s share of the after tax loss on the sale of the forward contracts is US$0.6 million. As of June 30, 2002, Sadiola had 75,000 ounces of call options priced at US$385 per ounce remaining. The net market value of Sadiola`s call option position at June 30, 2002 was a loss of US$0.3 million at the mine level. IAMGOLD has reduced revenue to reflect its US$0.1 million portion of the mark to market loss on call options and its US$0.6 million loss on forward contracts retired.

IAMGOLD is comfortable with current exposure to financial instruments and does not intend to acquire additional exposure at this time.

All hedging is at the Sadiola mine level. IAMGOLD does not undertake any corporate hedging activity. AngloGold monitors the call options on a daily basis on behalf of the mine.

Production Update - Yatela Gold Mine 100%:

Yatela`s production for the year is in line to meet or better the budget target of 270,000 ounces and total cash costs of US$161/oz.

Exploration Update:

Results from on-going drill programs are presently being assessed and an exploration update will be released by IAMGOLD in the fall. This will include the sulphide exploration at Sadiola, the satellite oxide exploration at Sadiola and Yatela and a review of our projects in Senegal and South America.

Management Discussion and Analysis:

SECOND QUARTER-THREE MONTHS ENDED:

IAMGOLD reported consolidated net income of US$0.9 million (US$0.01 per share) for the second quarter of 2002, compared to net income of US$2.2 million (US$0.03 per share) for the second quarter of 2001. Operating cash flow (before working capital changes) for the second quarter of 2002 was US$4.8 million (US$0.06 per share) compared to US$5.8 million (US$0.08 per share) for the second quarter of 2001.

Revenue:

Consolidated revenues from operations for the second quarter were US$19 million compared to US$15 million for the second quarter of 2001. Approximately US$3 million of the US$4 million revenue increase was created by additional ounces sold due to Yatela production included in the second quarter of 2002 but not in the second quarter of 2001. The remaining US$1 million increase was created by higher gold prices.

The average realized gold price in the second quarter of 2002 was US$307 per ounce compared to US$283 per ounce for the same period in 2001. Spot gold prices averaged US$313 per ounce in the second quarter of 2002 compared to US$267 per ounce in the second quarter of 2001. The use of forwards and options decreased revenues by US$6 per ounce in the second quarter of 2002 and increased revenues by US$16 per ounce in the second quarter of 2001.

IAMGOLD`s second quarter revenue reflects its share of the change in the mark to market loss on Sadiola call options at June 30, 2002 of US$0.1 million, the second quarter amortization for the deferred hedge revenue of US$0.4 million and its share of the after-tax loss from the sale of the remaining Sadiola forward contracts of US$0.6 million.

Mining Costs:

Mine operating costs in the second quarter of 2002 increased by US$3 million compared to the second quarter of 2001. This increase was due in equal parts to increased ounces (mostly due to Yatela production, which began in July 2001) and increased cash costs (lower grade at Sadiola, new production at Yatela). Average total cash cost per ounce increased to US$166 in the second quarter of 2002 from US$131 per ounce in the second quarter of 2001.

At Sadiola, total cash costs were US$158 per ounce in the second quarter in comparison to the US$131 per ounce in the second quarter of 2001.

Total cash costs at Yatela of $183 per ounce in the second quarter were in line with budget expectations.

All Other:

Interest expense at the mine level decreased in the second quarter of 2002 compared to the second quarter of 2001, reflecting a reduction and retirement in the Company`s share of Sadiola debt.

Corporate administration, exploration administration and exploration expenses in the second quarter of 2002 were lower than the second quarter of 2001.

Exploration spending is in line with the budget of US$5 million. The 2002 spending profile will have greater spending in the last half of the year compared to 2001.

Interest expenses related to Yatela debt which were capitalised prior to the July 2001 commencement of commercial production.

Current income taxes of US$1.6 million represents Sadiola income taxes for the second quarter of 2002. The mine became taxable at the end of February 2002, on its fifth year anniversary of commercial production.

A non-cash provision for future income taxes decreased net income by US$0.1 million in the second quarter of 2002 as compared to a US$0.1 million decrease in net income in the second quarter of 2001. The taxes relate to Sadiola profits that will be repatriated to Canada. Senior lenders` restrictions on cash movements from Sadiola were eliminated in May 2002, on the last debt repayment. The Company expects future corporate expenses to reduce the future tax liability balance.

A loss of US$0.3 million from holding gold bullion was recorded in the second quarter of 2002.

Financial Review:

Asset additions amounted to US$2 million in the second quarter of 2002 and US$6 million in the first half of 2002. These additions relate to remaining sulphide plant and exploration at Sadiola and to heap leach pads at Yatela.

The final Sadiola payment (both senior and subordinated loans) was paid in mid-May 2002 and totaled US$31.5 million at the mine level ($12 million at the IAMGOLD level). The Company`s share of Sadiola cash balances at June 30, 2002 amounted to US$10 million.

IAMGOLD`s consolidated cash position as at June 30, 2002 was US$43.5 million. Included in this amount is US$15 million held in joint ventures. The corporate cash and gold bullion position at June 30, 2002 was US$28.5 million, of which US$26 million was held in gold bullion (83,084 ounces).

On July 31, 2002, the Company will receive US$0.9 million from Yatela as its net share of loan repayments related to the second quarter of 2002.

SOURCE: IAMGOLD

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?cli…

Gold Fields is now world`s most profitable gold firm

Sherilee Bridge

August 02 2002 at 06:37AM

Johannesburg - Gold Fields has become the world`s most profitable gold company, making R12.5 billion from gold mining in the past year and almost R4 billion of that in the June quarter.

Delivering the company`s quarterly results for the first time since taking the chief executive`s seat last month, Ian Cockerill said yesterday if R10 000 worth of Gold Fields shares were bought in June last year, those shares would be worth R35 000 today.

"The June quarter has carried through the theme of consistent performance which emerged throughout the year," said Cockerill.

Revenue was up R83 million to R3.8 billion in the three months to June, mostly because
of a 7 percent increase in production.

Attributable earnings were 12 percent higher at R1.18 billion, or R2.51 from R2.24 a share.

While the June quarter was the third successive quarter in which the company delivered record earnings, it is only in the past three months that it has shot to international stardom.

"We have had to make the transition from being a South African gold mining company to a global precious metals producer," said Cockerill.

A third of the company`s gold production was now sourced offshore and 73 percent of its shares were now in foreign hands.

The company has also enjoyed a re-rating of its shares on the JSE Securities Exchange, catching up with its closest competitor, AngloGold, in terms of market capital. Both were trading close to R48 billion yesterday.

AngloGold reported on Wednesday that its gold income had slipped to R4.25 billion from R4.29 billion.

Gold Fields is also catching up with AngloGold`s production levels. Gold Fields reported cash costs of R57 935 a kilogram in the June quarter, compared with the R54 177 it cost AngloGold to produce a kilogram of gold during the same period.

Gold Fields` next step was to diversify further by becoming a platinum producer, said Cockerill.

Gold Fields closed R6.50 weaker at R102.50 yesterday in the midst of a bad day for gold globally.

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Simens plant die Entlassung von mindestens 5000 weiteren Angstellten, sagt die IG Metall!

Weitere Belastungen für den Steuerzahler?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Japan legt nochmals zu, bei den Problem Krediten!

Plus ca. 30% NPLs gegenüber dem Vorjahr!
Und das sind gersde nur die bekannten Zahlen.
Bereits schon 439,6 Milliarden US Dollar schlechte Schulden!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/08/02/rtr684736.html

Japan problem loans Y52.4 trln at end-March

FSA
Reuters, 08.02.02, 2:18 AM ET

TOKYO, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Problem loans as defined by law at Japanese financial institutions stood at 52.4 trillion yen ($439.6 billion) at the end of March, up 9.5 trillion yen from a year earlier, the country`s top banking regulator said on Friday.

Of that, problem loans at Japanese banks including regional banks were 43.2 trillion yen, up 9.6 trillion yen from a year earlier, the Financial Services Agency said.

The total of 52.4 trillion yen included problem loans at financial institutions serving local communities such as "shinkin" banks and credit cooperatives.

The FSA is pressuring banks to clean up "core" problem loans, or loans to borrowers at risk of bankruptcy or already bankrupt, in two to three years.

The cost of cleaning up these huge problem loans, along with widening losses from stockholdings, pushed all top banks into the red in the last business year.

($1=119.19 yen)

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service

[ThaiGuru]

How, exactly, did gold plummet under pressure from the Gold Dealer`s Cabal at the recent $322 level to a low today of $298 prior to a recover just under $305 by the NY Comex gold trading close?

By James Sinclair, Chairman & CEO of Tan Range Exploration

TNX on the TSE


1. A Gold dealer or group of gold dealers, cartel members by common intention or agreement, obtained a gold lease or leases from a central bank. In today world this is simple and only requires that such a request be made by an established client dealer of a central bank.

2. A gold lease is a lease agreement whereby a Central Bank delivers to the gold dealer an agreed upon amount of gold which has to be returned after one year. The gold dealer is free to do whatever the gold dealer wants with the gold. The gold dealer pays, today, a rate of less than 1% of the market value of the delivered gold under the lease arrangement for the lease.

3. The gold dealer this time elected first to sell Comex Gold contracts equal to the amount of gold received from the central bank. This selling was done in a manner to destabilize the price of gold. All bids then standing for Comex gold contracts were hit with offerings of Comex gold contracts at ever decreasing prices and increasing amounts of Comex gold contracts than the bid size. As soon as one sale was made another is made at progressively lower price making any purchases from this seller an instant loser for the buyer.

4. As this is broadcast around the world sellers start to trip over each other offering gold so as not to lose profits they had.

5. The gold price closed at the support level of $312.

6. Overnight the gold dealers continues the program of selling gold equal to the volume of gold leased around the world so that gold opens lower in the United State the next morning. Gold trades from the US to Australia to Asia to Great Britain and the Continent into New York`s opening. Gold trades 20 hours of the 24 hour day. some will say correctly 24 hours of the 24 hour day if you include the dealers over the counter market in off exchange hours. The $312 support level now has failed. Gold is falling below $312.

7. Again, in the New York morning, the market is flooded by sellers in an attempt to play the greater fool game and offload gold to another on order to protect profits and limit losses.

8. Gold declines all day and closed below the KEY $305 point of Risk Control Programs. All Risk control programs on all notional value $300,000,000,000 gold derivatives now shut down. All derivative position are now 5 PM EDT August 1st, 2002, at their FULL MAXIMUM SHORT volume position spread that they had before the gold rallied last over $300.

9. Gold in today`s NY Comex August 1st, 2002 session follows through lower in the morning and into late morning but meets with fundamental motivated physical gold buyers that feel that under $300 gold is CHEAP. The gold dealer`s cartel sees that continued selling of gold futures on the Comex cannot force physical gold any lower today. The Physical buyer`s demand is now greater than the willingness of the gold dealers to sell naked short gold since they had exhausted their leased gold on the second day of this bearishly manipulative ploy. In fact the bid for physical gold is large and above the offering price of the equivalent cash month gold future on the Comex for an instant. That grabs the attention of the professional traders at the gold dealer cartel. The gold dealers as a professionals shuts down selling as he/she has sold all of the leased gold now and even more short. Lease rates are tightening up which also sends a message to gold traders and gold dealer`s Cabal that is now naked short. The gold dealer cartel shorts begin to cover in front of the fundamental buyers of physical gold in the cash market for bullion. As a result gold both futures on the Comex and bullion in the cash physical market closes just below the KEY $305 pointy. A close above $305 will reactivate the RISK CONTROL PROGRAMS and initiate buying which would take gold back to the $312 level as first resistance. I suspect that is what is about to happen next.


Definition:


Risk Control Program: All Gold Banks use risk control programs which is a soft ware package usually custom designed that informs and in some cases automatically buys gold when a short spread (position in which there are offsetting buys and sells of any instrument derived from gold bullion) which profits when gold declines. As gold rises this program will maintain the degree of risk originally accepted by generating buys in the market place to offset the sells already in position. Contrarily when gold declined from under $230 the risk control programs all turned gold seller in the marketplace putting more pressure on the gold price.

Naked Short: Naked means that the sale has no other side to it such as physical gold. It is simply a trader who believe the pricer will decline sell gold that he/she does not have.

Spread: When a trader has a position made up of varieties of long and short gold vehicles. A spread can be bullish, bearish or nearly neutral.

Long: You own the gold in some form in anticipation of higher prices.

Short: You have sold gold that you do not own in hope of replacing it at a lower price.

Gold Dealer`s Cartel: A group that worked together either by simply common position, therefore interest or possibly by collusion to manipulate the value of gold in order to protect profits in their huge derivative gold positions.

Please ask me any question that my answer brings up. Your question was a good one as you must understand exactly what happened so that you can chart your own course of action. Please do not pass over a misunderstood word or you will lose the gist of the entire answer. Ask me for a definition if you do not have a financial dictionary handy.

James Sinclair can be reached for comment or questions about the above or any aspect of gold at: http://www.tanrange.com

[silvo]

es ist gerade zu fahrlässig in der jetzigen börsen-wirtschaftslage kein Gold-Silber (minenwerte) zu besitzen(= original Wortlaut auf Seminar für Anlageberater). leider trauen diese sich nicht solche Empf. weiter zu geben, oder werden vom Anleger nicht ernst genommen.

[schmithi]

So, sieht doch schon wieder viel besser aus

[silvo]

Gold endlich rauf, Minenwerte runter, das ist Börsenlogik.;:&??!)

[Insiderin007]

Ja, kann mal einer erklären, warum die Minen bei so einem schönen Anstieg des POG derart schwach reagieren ?
Nehmen sie jetzt einen Wiederabsturz des POG voraus ?
Insiderin007

[manfred1_I]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[hagentronje]

manni

1) sie haben ihr Gold ja nicht verkauft
2) Der "Ritterschlag" hat nichts mit Gold zu tun
3) nicht überall lauert "die Verschörung"

[silvo]

Gold steigt und steigt und keinen interessiert`s scheinbar;wird nicht in den Nachrichten erwähnt, bei meiner Hausbank (in der Region 40.000 Kunden) bin ich der einzige(Lt. Bank) der Gold-Silberwerte im Depot hat.Berater meint man solle es schon empfehlen, doch keiner(alles Telekom-Geschädigte) traut sich rein

[Traderfriz]

>ins 007
in der Ruhe liegt die kraft
Deep 16% + GFI 10% das reicht doch mal fürs erste ... bin leider momentan auch nur teilinv, es gibt noch genug Möglichkeiten i.d. Markt zu kaufen.

TF

[erdede]

hallo zusammen,

es scheint sich allmählich ein charttechnisches Kaufsignal für Gold auszubilden, über 312 geschlossen.

Jetzt einsteigen oder akkumulieren!


erdede

[manfred1_I]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

18:49:38 09.08.2002 - Neue Kredite für Brasilien: Weltbank und IADB geben 7 Milliarden Dollar

BRASILIA (dpa-AFX) - Nach dem Rekordkredit des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) in Höhe von 30 Milliarden US-Dollar bekommt Brasilien jetzt auch insgesamt sieben Milliarden Dollar von der Weltbank und der Inter-Amerikanischen Entwicklungsbank (IADB). Wie das brasilianische Finanzministerium am Freitag in Brasilia mitteilte, sollen die Details des Kreditabkommens in Washington bekannt gegeben werden. Die Weltbank habe 4,5 Milliarden Dollar und die IADB 2,5 Milliarden Dollar in Aussicht gestellt, hieß es.

Der IWF hatte Brasilien am Mittwoch einen Stand-By-Kredit in Höhe von 30 Milliarden Dollar gewährt. Mit der größten Kreditlinie seiner Geschichte will der Fonds im krisengeschüttelten Südamerika einen Sturz ins Chaos abwenden. Am Donnerstag hatte auch Uruguay vom IWF einen Kredit in Höhe von 494 Millionen Dollar erhalten. Gleichzeitig gab der IWF früher genehmigte Mittel frei, so dass der kleine Nachbra Brasiliens mit einer Soforthilfe von 793 Millionen Dollar rechnen kann.

Brasilien wird zwei Monate vor der Präsidenten-Wahl von einer schweren Vertrauenskrise erschüttert. Vor allem deshalb, weil alle Umfragen von zwei linksgerichteten Oppositionskandidaten angeführt werden. Die Währung verlor rund ein Fünftel an Wert. Die Zinsen für die hohen Auslandsschulden stiegen damit dramatisch. Investoren fürchteten die Zahlungsunfähigkeit der Regierung./er/DP/jh/

[siam123]

@all,

vermißt denn keiner ThaiGuru ???


mfG,

siam

[logo8]

doch, ich als stiller Leser
vermisse die Links und Comments sehr
gruß

[Tippgeber1]

dpa Bericht von herbert Winler


"Ausgeklügelte Strategie gegen den Terror, Teil I
USA drücken aufs Tempo

Auf der Jagd nach Top-Terroristen drücken die USA aufs Tempo. Knapp ein Jahr nach den Anschlägen auf das World Trade Center und das Pentagon hat Verteidigungsminister Donald Rumsfeld jetzt US-Spezialeinheiten beauftragt, führende Männer von El Kaida "zu fangen oder zu töten" - in welchem Land sie sich auch befinden. "Der Minister will jedem begreiflich machen, wie dringlich das ist, wie real die Gefahren sind", sagte seine Sprecherin Victoria Clark. Es werde immer schwerer, das in die Enge getriebene und zu allem entschlossene "letzte Aufgebot" zu fassen.
Erst am Anfang
Der geheime Rumsfeld-Befehl, der an die Medien durchsickerte und undementiert blieb, illustriert anschaulich, dass die USA ungeachtet einer ausgeklügelten Strategie erst am Anfang ihres Krieges gegen den Terrorismus stehen. "Trotz des Erfolges in Afghanistan liegt noch ein weiter Weg vor uns", räumte Sprecherin Clark ein.
Aktiv in über 60 Ländern
Militärische Mittel machen nur einen Teil des Kampfes aus. Eine ganz wichtige Rolle spielen die Geheimdienste, die gefordert sind, von Nordafrika bis Südostasien bisher unbekannte oder sich neu formierende terroristische Zellen aufzuspüren. El Kaida hat nach Angaben Rumsfelds immer noch aktive Mitglieder in mehr als 60 Staaten einschließlich den USA. Sechs bis zwölf Führungskräfte hätten alle Informationen, die sie brauchten, um in die Schuhe Osama bin Ladens zu schlüpfen - darunter Kenntnis von verfügbaren Bankkonten.
Wie erfolgreich ist die Geldhahn-Strategie?
Dem Terror den Geldhahn abzudrehen, ist zwar ein Kernpunkt der Strategie. Doch wie viel des finanziellen Nachschubs eingefroren ist, kann niemand schlüssig sagen - trotz "bemerkenswerter Ergebnisse" der internationalen Kampagne, von denen der stellvertretende US-Finanzminister Kenneth Dam im Kongress berichtete. 112 Millionen Dollar sind demzufolge weltweit beschlagnahmt worden, darunter 70 Millionen Dollar außerhalb der USA. In 160 Ländern gibt es Anweisungen, verdächtige Summen zu kassieren. Geld-Pipelines sind verstopft, als Stiftungen getarnte Gruppen daran gehindert worden, den Terrorismus zu unterstützen.
Netz von Stützpunkten
Während in Afghanistan die Terroristenjagd weitergeht, bauen die USA gezielt ein Netz von Stützpunkten und Kooperationsverträgen aus. In Pakistan dürfen sie drei Flugplätze benutzen. So weit bekannt, ist die Supermacht in Georgien, Usbekistan, Kirgisien, Tadschikistan, den Philippinen und dem Jemen mit Truppen als Berater und Ausbilder oder auch nur logistischen Helfern präsent. (...weiter mit Teil II...)
Nach Feststellungen der regierungskritischen Federation of American Scientists (Föderation amerikanischer Wissenschaftler) hat der "Antiterrorismus den Antikommunismus als Allzweck-Erklärung für US-Militärhilfe im 21. Jahrhundert ersetzt". Mehrere Beschränkungen seien aufgehoben worden. Außer Pakistan seien Usbekistan, Kirgisien und Tadschikistan großzügig mit Rüstungsgütern bedacht worden. Selbst nicht direkt betroffene Länder wie Aserbeidschan, Armenien und Kenia hätten Militärhilfe bekommen. Länder wie Oman, Nepal und Äthiopien sollen sie ebenfalls erhalten.
Millionen für die Hilfe
Den Philippinen hilft Washington schon bei der Bekämpfung der Guerilla-Gruppe Abu Sayyaf auf der Insel Basilan. Nach dreijähriger Unterbrechung nehmen die USA auch ihre Militärhilfe für Indonesien wieder auf, dem bevölkerungsreichsten moslemischen Land, das als potenzielle Brutstätte des Terrorismus betrachtet wird. Von 50 Millionen Dollar, die überwiegend der Polizei beim Anti-Terror-Kampf helfen sollen, sind vier Millionen für die Ausbildung von Soldaten bestimmt. Sorgen über Menschenrechtsverletzungen durch die indonesischen Militärs werden hintan gestellt. Auf seiner jüngsten Asienreise schloss Außenminister Colin Powell in Brunei ferner mit zehn Staaten Südostasiens (ASEAN) einen Anti-Terrorismus-Pakt.
Tschtschenien kein Thema mehr
Die Gemeinsamkeit des Anti-Terror-Krieges hat auch die Bande mit den Großen verstärkt, vor allem mit Russland, aber auch mit China. Bedenken zum russischen Vorgehen gegen Separatisten in Tschetschenien und die Inhaftierung hunderter Regimekritiker in China stehen dem nicht im Weg. Die Jagd auf Terror-Gelder war Ende Mai erstmals Gegenstand von halbjährlichen amerikanisch-chinesischen Expertengesprächen.
Diskussionsrunde gegen den Terror
Ende Juli trafen sich hohe Beamte Russlands und der USA in Annapolis bei Washington zu ihrer ersten Diskussionsrunde mit einem neuen, von den Präsidenten George W. Bush und Wladimir Putin im Mai in Moskau beschlossenen Mandat. Unter dem Namen "Arbeitsgruppe für Afghanistan" hatte die Runde schon siebenmal getagt. Nun trägt sie den Namen "Arbeitsgruppe über Anti-Terrorismus" und beschäftigt sich mit dem ganzen Spektrum des brisanten Problems."

Von herbert winkler /dpa

[blindfisch]

warum drückst du diesen sch... eigentlich in jeden gold-thread rein...?

rad ab oder langeweile...?

ohne gruß
bf

[Tippgeber1]

@Blindfisch

Weil es einen gewissen Zusammenhang gibt zwischen Gold und Krisen. Gold gilt als Krisenwährung lieber Blindfisch.

Und bedient habe ich deshalb meine Favoritengoldthreads, weil der Artikel schlicht gut war.


Aber das wirst Du ohnehin nie begreifen

[blindfisch]

richtig, ich werde nie begreifen, was ein mensch wie du meint, wenn er ohne kommentar dumpfbackig x-mal den selben englishsprachigen artikel in jeden thread reindrückt ohne ihn zu kommentieren oder einen geistigen zusammenhang zu schaffen...

da bist du mir echt über und ich freue mich, daß es dich gibt...

bf

[Tippgeber1]

Greenspan bleibt hart!

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,209355,00.html

Gruß

Tippgeber

[Tippgeber1]

@blindfisch

Was gibt es da zu kommentieren? Seitenlang wird prima journalistisch die Sachlage dargestellt. Wenn Du damit ein Problem hast, kann ich Dir nicht helfen. Andere freuen sich über solch Beiträge und können Ihren Nutzen daraus ziehen.

Du schreibst:
" dumpfbackig x-mal den selben englis(c)hsprachigen artikel in jeden thread reindrückt ohne ihn zu kommentieren oder einen geistigen zusammenhang zu schaffen..."

Nach meiner Erkenntnis war der Artikel deutschsprachig, aber vielleicht hast Du mit der deutschen Sprache ein Problem?


Dass Gold und Krisen zusammengehören wie Blindfisch und Dumpfbacke ist doch eigentlich klar oder Blindfisch?


Was soll ich da noch aufklären?

Durch Deine hinreissenden Kommentare, bist Du uns allen über, scheinst aber nicht so recht zu wissen, was Du eigentlich überhaupt meinst


Pstttt lassen wir ihn weiterschlafen




Liebe Grüße


Tippi

[Blecheuro]

Was ist eigentlich mit Thai Guru los? Stimmt es, daß ihm ein Goldbarren auf die Füße gefallen ist?

[GebrderHunt]

Ich habe gehört, ihm sei in Thailand ein Sack Reis auf den Kopf gefallen.

[Khampan]

nein, laut BM ist ThaiGuru auf einer 3wöchigen Geschäftsreise.
Keine Sorge, er kommt wieder.

[goldpups007]

Er bereitet im Park-Hotel in Chiang Mai das Weihnachtssingen vor....

Gruß Pups


uiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

[Tippgeber1]

Liebe Freunde,

bei aller Aktienbegeisterung, sollten wir die Menschen der Flutkatastrophe nicht vergessen:


"Hilfe für die Flutopfer

Spendenaufruf
Hilfe für die Opfer

Die Deutsche Telekom hat in Zusammenarbeit mit der ARD und der "Bild"-Zeitung eine Telefon-Spendenaktion gestartet. Nach dem Wählen der 01 90 / 00 40 06 erhält der Anrufer zunächst eine kostenfreie Ansage. Nach einem Signalton werden einmalig 3 Euro je Telefonat mit der nächsten Telefonrechnung abgebucht. Die Deutsche Telekom gibt diese 3 Euro direkt an die Hilfsaktion weiter. Die Hotline ist nicht aus den Mobilfunknetzen, sondern nur aus dem Festnetz der Deutschen Telekom erreichbar.
Angesichts der verheerenden Schäden durch das Hochwasser im Süden und Osten Deutschlands haben diverse Hilfsorganisationen zu Spenden für Betroffene aufgerufen:


Diakonisches Werk
Stichwort: Hochwasser
Postbank Stuttgart
Bankleitzahl: 600 100 70
Konto-Nr. 502 707


Deutsches Rotes Kreuz
Stichwort: Nachbarn in Not
Bank für Sozialwirtschaft
Bankleitzahl: 370 205 00
Konto-Nr. 41 41 41


Caritas International
Stichwort: Hochwasser
Bank für Sozialwirtschaft
Bankleitzahl: 660 205 00
Konto-Nr. 202

Zur Startseite t-news"



Bitte helft mit, diese Katastrophe für die betroffenen Menschen zu lindern. Danke Euch allen für Eure Hilfsbereitschaft.



Liebe Grüße


Euer Tippgeber

[silvo]

wo sind denn die ganzen Gold-Fans geblieben? Kurs endlich wieder auf 310, Ziel: irgendwo im Norden

[axelkitzing]

Das frage ich mich auch schon die ganze Zeit.

Gruß Axel

[jeffery2]

Die "richtigen" Fans sitzen hier schon seit ein paar Jahren, sturmerprobt, lassen sich von 3$ Kursanstieg nicht mehr vom Hocker hauen, der kann morgen weg sein, wie so oft.
Die ganz Aufgeregten sind wohl mangels Masse wieder weitergezogen. Keine Angst es kommen Neue dazu und ein paar bleiben ja als ganze Goldfreunde hier aus der grossen Schreibermeute. Der eine oder andere von Euch wird wohl dazugehören.
Noch ist Zeit über Rotwein,Whisky und Havannas zu plaudern.
Von der "Insel" im irgendwo kann man später reden. Gell @sov.

[manfred1_I]

Die Gold- und Silberfans liegen in Lauerstellung.


Bis dann.

[Blecheuro]

Manfred, da hast Du Recht, irgendwas braut sich zusammen, auch wenn es bei den Edelmetallen MOMENTAN nur nach einer tech. Reaktion aussieht. Hat eigentlich schon jemand eine Vermißtenmeldung für den großen Thai Guru herausgegeben? Weiß jemand, ob er noch lebt? Denn sonst erlebt er ja die Edelmetallexplosionen nicht mehr.

[talvi]

@Blecheuro

Frage:

Kann eine Silberexplosion auch nach unten gehen???

Grüße Talvi

[kaepntnemo]

so, dann woll`n wir mal so tun, als sei thai wieder zurueck von seiner expedition:
<zitat>
Australia`s Gold Industry Is Continuing To Decline.

26.08.2002 12:23
Declining exploration in Australia`s gold industry is continuing to hurt production, with gold output dropping a further 8 per cent in the year to June 30.The latest survey, by industry statistics group Surbiton Associates, has revealed that Australian gold production fell to 272.5 tonnes last year, despite local producers receiving the strongest Australian dollar gold prices in many years.Gold production has continued to fall from its peak of 318 tonnes in 1997-98. The drop in exploration expenditure over the last five years has been a key factor in this downward trend.Paradoxically, declining gold production comes at a time where the spot price continues to hold above $US300 an ounce. The average $567 per ounce price received in the June quarter was the best its been in almost 15 years.

[Neftegaz.ru]
</zitat>
bullish for gold ?

mfg
-nemo

[kaepntnemo]

bullish for gold, part xxx
<zitat>
Departing Golden State, arriving Golden Council
Segueing, finally, from speculation to store of value, gold bulls might take note that this past week, the World Gold Council announced the appointment of James Burton, formerly the chief executive of the California Public Employees Retirement System, as its new president. It`s a very interesting development, and a possible first step in linking the gold market to investment demand. Should this occur, it would certainly cause prices to move dramatically higher.

William Fleckenstein
Contrarian Chronicles
A rally to fear, not to cheer
Posted 8/26/2002
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P29051.asp
</zitat>

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Wo steckt eigentlich ThaiGuru? Weiß das hier wer?

Gibt es Grund zur Sorge?

[vomo]

...angeblich auf Geschäftsreise(?)... sieh` `mal weiter unten nach :-)
Ich fänd`s schade, wenn dieser Thread ohne ihn weiterleben müßte - ganz dem gewählten Titel nach, hat er hier doch viel `reingetragen/eingestellt. Und das fehlt nun... wie man sieht.

[svc]

@vomo @thaiG

stimmt, wir haben die fülle von informationen immer sehr geschätzt. es war immer alles zusammen!

@thaiguru
falls du auf einer eigenen homepage postest, lasse es uns bitte wissen. 2-3 klicks pro tag hast du sicher. falls du mal nur zuschauen möchtest, was wir nachvollziehen können - dann tue es. es ist zwar viel geschehen, aber geändert hat sich nicht so viel. schönen urlaub!

bis bald
svc

[niemandweiss]

wie wäre es denn damit ? Bin gespannt auf Eure Kommentare dazu:

---------

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/sinclair/090302.htm

GUEST EDITORIAL

James E. Sinclair of Tan Range Exploration Corp. & Harry D. Schultz of International Harry Schultz Letter


Why the Gold Cartel Will Fail to Prevent a Primary Gold Bull Market
The Real WHY They Are Trying to Prevent it
by James Sinclair & Harry Schultz
September 3, 2002



JP Morgan/Chase appears to be the main member by accident or by intention of the Gold Dealers short seller`s club.

JPM (NYSE Symbol for JP Morgan/Chase) has received, in our opinion, from Central Banks, lease agreements, whereby they are able to receive physical bullion from the central bank paying now 3/4 of 1% per annum. JPM and/or their clients are free to use or sell this gold in any manner they want. JPM themselves or on behalf of their clients appear to have used it to sell violently at key technical points. $312.50 to $314.80 (today) -$315 & $329.50-$330, thereby depressing the gold price.

Recently, Moody`s Credit Rating Service downgraded JP Morgan/Chase`s credit rating. Following that, Standard & Poor`s Credit Service downgraded JP Morgan/Chase`s credit standing based on specific derivative positions.

The actual figure of derivative positions on the book of JP Morgan/Chase can be found registered at the office of the Controller of the US Currency. The Controller of the US Currency reports to the IMF which shares its data with the BIS.

Therefore, the positions carried by JP Morgan/Chase is public, but the public has no real idea on how to find it (or what it means).

The total of all derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase on all underlying assets is $24 Trillion US dollars. Yes, 24 Trillion.

The size of the Gold Derivatives on JP Morgan/Chase`s books is $46,000,000,000 - $60,000,000,000, depending on valuation methods. Yes, $46 to $60 Billion.

All gold derivative dealers use "Risk Control Software" to manage their gold positions. This program maintains the risk of the gold derivative to the dealer according to the risk percentage that is decided upon by the trading management at the inception of the transactions.

All the gold derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase are short spreads. That means short of gold. If they were not short spreads, then JP Morgan/Chase would be extraordinarily pleased by the rise in the gold price and publicly bullish in their reports (which they are not).

The size of the total international position of short spread gold derivatives is US Dollars $300,000,000,000 according to IMF and BIS reports. If you convert $300,000,000,000 into ounces of gold at the present gold price, it equates to 900,000,000 ounces.

As gold hit $305, it triggered the logic of the "Risk Control Programs" to buy gold to maintain the risk exposure of the gold derivative short spreads for the gold dealers cabal/cartel of which J.P. Morgan/Chase is, in our opinion, a major player, if not the main player. As gold, with the help of the cartel, dropped from the high $320s, "Risk Control Programs" triggered selling of gold for the same reason. At $302-$305 "Risk control Programs" returned to neutral. Now you can understand the action of the gold market clearly.

If Gold closes above $330, the "Risk Control Programs" will start to demand that for each ounce of gold sold short in the short gold spreads, the dealers must own long approximately .623 ounces of gold.

At a close at/or above $354, the gold dealers cabal/cartel`s "Risk Control Programs" will call for approximately .986 ounces of gold long for each ounce short on the gold derivative short spreads.

.986 ounces is practically one to one - one ounce short to one ounce long required to maintain solvency by "Risk Control Programs" at $354 gold.

If you equate the demand to the number of ounces of gold that would be created by a close at or above $354 by the "Risk Control Program" used by all commercial banks, gold banks and gold dealers in the gold derivative business, the number comes out to slightly above 886,325,000 ounces of gold. That number exceeds all the gold that all the central banks on the planet have in their possession including all the gold they have leased and not accounted for. Therefore, at $354, gold will have to go ballistic in price &/or the greatest bankruptcy in history will occur for the gold derivative dealers.

It is not the gold derivative position that worries the major investment banks that are the parents of the subsidiaries which are the exposed gold dealers. It is not the $46 billion to $60 billion in gold derivatives on the books of JP Morgan/Chase that worries them. It is the effect of an explosion in the gold derivatives on the balance of the US Dollar 23.7 Trillion in other derivatives on the books of JP Morgan that worries JP Morgan/Chase, IMO.

This is why JP Morgan/Chase and their other gold dealer cartel members are stopping gold at $312.50 to $314.80 today (as this is written) with the help, IMO, of central banks.

Such a manipulation to prevent the gold market from rising above $354 will fail because history tells us that no manipulation ever attempted has stopped a primary, fundamentally-driven bull or bear market in anything.

The two greatest traders that ever lived, (both expired), Bertram J. Seligman and Jesse Livermore taught that a successful manipulation must always be in the direction that the market wants to take -- fundamentally and technically. Any other manipulation not only fails, a manipulation against the fundamental and technical desire of a market will also create a coiled market that goes further in the direction of its intention than it would have gone in the first place. Therefore, the result of the attempt by the gold cartel to hold the market down will be to propel it higher than it would have gone earlier.

To complicate the problem, most gold derivatives outstanding today are as follows:

Non-transparent.

Unregulated.

Unlisted.

Not clearinghouse funded.

Not market priced.

Generally non-transferable as many are specific performance contractual obligations.

Without standard so that closing can`t be made at will.

Totally dependent on the balance sheet of the granting entity.

Granting gold bank entities generally non-guaranteed as to trade debt, subsidiaries of international investment and commercial banks holding companies.

Now totaling $300,000,000 notional value internationally.

Approximately 89% of these transaction have been done with entities that have nothing to do with the mining industry as counter party to the gold bank derivative dealer.

Therefore, the gold market has come under continued selling by those entities (gold banks/gold dealers) who will suffer the most, assuming -- and we do -- that gold is in a Primary Fundamental Gold Market based on the "5 Fundamental Reasons" that sustain such an event.

The 5 Keys to a Long Term Bull Market in Gold on www.financialsense.com

A. The US Current Account must be in a deficit position and growing. Yes, this is a present condition and shows no fundamental signs of reversing for a significant time. This is the account that measures the amount of US dollars in the hands of non-US entities. It is usually invested primarily in US Federal Debt instruments.

B. An intact negative trend in the US Dollar overall must exist. It should have the characteristics of a bear market. This is in fact true for the US Dollar today. We have a classic long-term top called a Head & Shoulders formation, which was subsequently confirmed by price and volume action. Even dollar bulls now are looking only for the dollar to stabilize at lower levels. This criterion is in place for a long-term bull market in gold.

C. The general commodity market is showing in many ways, both fundamentally and technically, that it is in a base formation from which one can expect higher prices. We shall discuss the technical characteristics further to sustain that this ingredient has begun to support gold long term.

D. Trust in paper assets must be waning for gold to assume an investment role internationally. We see the recent decision against Andersen, the comments on GE & IBM accounting practices and Enron as examples of causative items, which have turned investors away from the absolute belief, in existence from 1980 until now, that paper assets were storehouses of value. We believe this ingredient is in favor of gold`s long-term bull market.

E. The momentum in the appreciation of the bond market must be decelerating. We see this ingredient as becoming positive now to a long-term bull market in gold.

These five items, as they gain in strength, will further accelerate the underpinnings of a long-term market in gold. It was the forming of these constituents of a long-term bull market in gold that has given rise to the move of gold from $260 to $330.

Therefore, the Gold Cartel is in Harm`s Way. A bankruptcy of the derivative dealers who represent, in part, 72 Trillion Dollars of derivative positions (called by Buffett - "Sewage") of the highest mountain of debt ever created on Earth is the reason why gold could go to $1450 -- $1700. When gold reached $887.50 in March of 1980, $900 was the price that would have balanced the balance sheet of the USA defined as the comparison between Federal asset gold and external debt obligations. If a derivative failure was to happen in the next 5 years, it would -- depending on when it happened -- produce a number between $1450 and $1700 on gold to balance the balance sheet of the US as described above.

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Auch auf die Gefahr hin, für paranoid gehalten zu werden, aber immer wenn es dem Dollar an den Kragen geht und/oder der POG mal nach Norden marschiert, dann spinnt die Seite von kitco!

Bilde ich mir das bloß ein oder hat das außer mir noch wer beaobachtet?

[niemandweiss]

null Problemo, aber manchmal hinken die etwas hinterher, guck da lieber den comdirect-chart

[Backesova]

317,30
INO Charts
Gruß Backesova

[Backesova]

319,40
INO Charts
Gruß Backesova

[silvo]

Kinross akt 2,25 Echo Bay = 53 % von Kinross= 1,19 , wird aber nur mit 1,09 gehandelt (seltsam), oder hab ich was falsch verstansden?

[silvo]

GOLD heute über 321 und hier wird nur Käse und Mist diskutiert

[ThaiGuru]

Gold ist halt doch nicht totzureden/schreiben, oder zu manipulieren.

Nach fünf Wochen Auslandaufenthalt hat mich Thailand wieder, und auch mein Computer hat seinen Besitzer, Gott sei Dank, wiedererkannt, und funktioniert noch genauso wie vor meiner Abwesenheit, was bei dieser Luftfeuchtigkeit und Hitze, keine Selbstverständlichkeit ist.

Die vergangenen Wochen waren für alle Goldbugs, und wohl für viele der relativ spät Goldinvestierten eine etwas nervige Sache. Und mancher Goldbug wird vielleicht auch etwas in seiner Ueberzeugung strapaziert worden sein, weil sich die Goldpreise einfach nicht so entwickelten, wie von vielen erwartet wurde.

Doch diese Zeit scheint mir jetzt langsam aber sicher zu ende zu gehen.

Hoffe dass viele die vergangenen Wochen dazu benutzt haben ihre Bestände an physischem Gold, und auch besonders Silber weiter auszubauen, und die eine oder andere Gold und Silberaktie zusätzlich ins Portefeuille aufgenommen zu haben, oder bestehende Positionen weiter ausgebaut haben.

Wünsche allen Lesern und Usern in diesem Thread eine erfolgreiche neue Woche.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[schuh]

Hallo TaiGuru,

schön daß du wieder da bist.
Das Niveau hier hat ganz schön nachgelassen.
Ich stimme dir vollkommen zu, die niedrigen Notierungen der Metalle gehen dem Ende entgegen.

[ThaiGuru]

September 7 - Gold $319.90 up $1.50 - Silver $4.51 unchanged

Gold Action Is Very Powerful

Gold was firm right from the get-go with Morgan Stanley as the featured buyer again. Around midday, the floor said that the big buyers were going after stops around $323 in the cash market. That rally petered out, but gold still advanced nicely in spite of dollar and stock market strength.

Meanwhile, commodity prices and the CRB (224.13, up 1.89) continue to soar. Few of the Wall Street-type pundits seem to be paying any attention, but at this rate gains will soon be dramatic.

A threepeat:

Regard one bullish CRB chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/B2

But, there is no inflation!

Then regard one fine looking gold chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

Since the third week of May, commodity prices have soared 10%, while the price of gold dropped $5 to $7. This dichotomy is due The Gold Cartel`s price rigging activities.

Only silver is stinking up the place in the commodity world and that has to be because of you know who. When the cabal falls, silver will fly.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[mickym [VIP]]

Hi Thai Guru,

schön dass Du wieder an Board bist.

Gruss Mic

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.20, PM $1.54, with world gold at $318.30 and $318.00. Above, and just below, legal import point. Reuters carries yet another axe-grinding story from the Indian bullion dealing community quoting a WGC report that the use of "old gold" in fabrication has doubled to 50% in the first half of the year. Of course: India is estimated to have 10% of the gold in private hands globally, and this is exactly what should be expected when prices rise. The premiums tell us India is still an importer.

"Tokyo gold futures sprang back to life" chirps Reuters, "…jumping to nine-month highs in heavy trade as geopolitical jitters…reminded investors of the metal’s…charms." This seems essentially correct, although it was more likely triggered by the slide in the yen. Volume was equivalent to 39,188 Comex lots, the active contract rose 12 yen, but open interest fell the equivalent of 1,375 Comex contracts. (NY on Thursday traded 38,878 lots with an open interest increase of 2,165.)

Gold could not go further in Asia because, as Standard London politely says, "Australia was a noted seller very early in the morning….It was speculated to be producer’s business as like the other days in the whole week". What producers are likely to be "notable" sellers at present?

Rereading http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256…The Mining Web http://www.theminingweb.com/‘s discussion of the J P Morgan hedge survey does not answer this question:

http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…

The still-refreshingly candid Mitsui NY comment is more meaningful:

"Mitsui Tokyo reports another pass at $319 resistance…failed to break through with strong dealer selling interest noted."

One bullion dealer notes the sudden acceleration of the Bank of Canada’s gold sales program (10% of the balance last month), after a slowdown. The BoC has generally sold most in periods of weakness. "They… have more important things on their minds."

What?

On a more constructive note, my friend the long-term chartist Martin Pring http://www.pring.com has warmed more to gold:

"The Goldman Sachs Precious Metal Index in Chart 5 has now decisively broken above its intermediate down trendline. The KST is positive and both gold shares and the metal are now experiencing a series of rising short-term peaks and troughs. Consequently, we look for new highs in the precious metal sector over the coming weeks."

(Weekly Comment 09 06 02)
(Monthly, published this week
"Gold and Gold Shares"

"Gold remains in a confirmed bull market since the price is above its 12-month MA and the KST is in a positive mode. The completion of the base at $300-310 and the violation of a multi-year down trendline for the 12-month ROC both suggest higher prices will be seen prior to the termination of the bull market. It is possible that a rally may be delayed because the intermediate KST is still moderately overbought. However, that for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Share Index, in Chart 45 is not, and the short-term KST has almost gone bullish. Chart 46 indicates that this leading indicator of the gold price may be in the process of completing a 4-year reverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is at 85 (basis monthly close) and the price objective would be approximately 150."

(KST is a lagged momentum measure.)

JB

[ThaiGuru]

@svc

Habe in den letzten 5 Wochen nirgends gepostet, bin dem WO Gold Board erhalten geblieben.

@schuh
@mickym


Freue mich auch, dass Ihr noch da seit, und aktiv postet.

Gemeinsam freut es mehr, wenn unsere Gold und Silber Aktien weiter/wieder ansteigen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Dieser Beitrag von Hugh Hendry, veröffentlicht von Reuters, macht viel Freude zu lesen!

6. Sept. 2002

LONDON (Reuters) - The gold price could more than treble to $1,000 per ounce if western stockmarkets suffer from a 20 year bear market, says Hugh Hendry, the manager of the top-performing Odey Continental European fund.

"I think there are some circumstances where the gold price could go to $1,000. Logically you could construct an argument where the gold price goes up by several times its current value," Hendry said.

Hendry, who has invested in several gold mining companies through his hedge funds and the Odey Continental European fund says a 20 year stock slump is not as strange as it sounds.

"I think the equities market will fall for 20 years. From 1929 it was 25 years before the market recovered and some stocks didn`t come back for 40 years. When will we see 40,000 in Japan again?"

Hendry, a partner at Odey Asset Management, said it was `ridiculous` that some market commentators think shares will bounce back in the next year or so.

"We`ve seen the biggest bull market in history and history demonstrates that the intensity of any bull market is more than matched by the intensity of a bear market. The S&P is on 37 times earnings. Bear markets end when stocks are on six to seven times."

Hendry is also investing in government bonds and says there is a bull market in risk-averse instruments with US and European bonds regularly making new highs.

However, despite recent share price rises, he is still very bullish on gold mining stocks.

He said South African mining stocks like Harmony Gold Mining , that suffered falls over the summer have now recovered and many stocks are still trading at reasonable prices.

He has been buying shares in Ashanti Goldfields at one times revenue and expects further stock price rises if the gold price keeps going up.

LACK OF HEDGING A GOOD SIGN

His bullish outlook on gold is partly due to the fact that many gold mining companies have stopped hedging against a fall in gold prices and are taking a positive view on prices for the first time in many years.

Even Barrick Gold, a Canadian blue chip famous for hedging the gold price, has been closing down some of its hedges as has AngloGold.

"You want to own the unhedged gold producers because if the gold price rises their profits will rise dramatically," said Hendry.

However, he is less keen on holding gold bullion as he said gold bars have been confiscated by governments in the past and this could happen again if a government felt its currency was under threat.

The United States banned private ownership of gold bars from the early thirties to 1971 when the US got rid of the gold standard so that dollars were no longer backed by gold. France took a similar policy in the early 18th century.

A spokesperson for the World Gold Council said such a move would be unlikely these days with the move towards further de-regulation of markets.

"You can never anticipate what any government is going to do but I would think it would be extremely unlikely," she said.

The Odey Continental European Accumulation fund has returned 14.56 percent in the last year compared to a 21.51 percent fall in the AUTIF Europe (ex UK) index over that period. Over three years the fund has returned 29.80 percent according to data provided by Lipper, compared with the index`s 19.87 percent fall.

Hendry`s fund is also ranked first in the Europe excluding UK category on the Citywire Funds Insider database even beating star manager Anthony Bolton`s Fidelity European Fund.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?cli…

Gold bulls strain on yokes as Bush sets sights on Iraq

Vernon Wessels

September 08 2002 at 07:20AM

Johannesburg - Expectations of a bull run on gold were high this week after the bullion price burst through the key resistance level of $315 an ounce on concerns of a full-scale military invasion of Iraq by the US and its ally.

Gold went as high as $321.85 on Friday, its highest level in more than six weeks, after gaining a whopping $4.55 to fix at $317.55 in London on Thursday.

As SCMB Securities noted, Friday`s $319.25 an ounce London fix meant gold had gained 15.5 percent from its 2001 year-end close of $276.50.

The 12-member gold index on the JSE Securities Exchange, which usually runs ahead of gains in the gold price, gained about 8 percent this week.

The gold index is the only major index to have made it into positive territory this year.

(Ja Du hast richtig gelesen "Blecheuro", Gold, und nicht etwa Silber! Wenigstens bis jetzt noch nicht!TG)

It has climbed more than 73 percent in the year to date while the FTSE/JSE Africa all share index has dropped more than 9 percent and the Top40 index has slipped almost 11 percent.

In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average has lost 16 percent this year, the Nasdaq has surrendered 33 percent and the S&P 500 has fallen 20 percent. The Dow dipped 7 percent last year and 6 percent in 2000 after surging 25 percent in 1999. The Nasdaq sank 21 percent
last year and 39 percent in 2000 after a wild 85 percent rise in 1999. The S&P, which lost 13 percent in 2001, was down 10 percent in 2000 and up 19 percent in 1999.

"As long as there is the threat of war, world equity markets remain weak, the dollar continues to lose value and oil prices climb, the gold bull market is still intact," said Allan Cooke, a director of Rice Rinaldi Securities.

But whether it was a good time to buy gold shares given their aggressive rally depended on the investor`s view.

"This is not a question of fundamentals but rather politics," Cooke said, adding that events after the September 11 anniversary and the looming threat of another Gulf War would be key factors in the short term.

In the medium term, however, technicals showed that the general trend for the gold price was still up, he said.

Gold has been in an upward trend since mid-2001.

Other positives in gold`s favour include good physical demand from Asia, the ruling out of gold sales by Germany, gold producers cutting their hedge books and the fall in Tokyo`s Nikkei this week to its lowest level in 19 years, amid fears Japan`s banking sector was on the rocks.

(Bis hierhin kann ich diesen Artikel völlig unterstreichen, jedoch das was Dirk Kotze, so heisst der Mann anscheinend wirklich, so von sich gibt, in seiner "Analyse" zum Goldpreis, scheint mir doch etwas weltfremd, und vermutlich völlig daneben gegriffen zu sein, zumindest was das Gold anbelangt. Der Mann sieht Platinaktien als Langzeitanlage, Goldaktien jedoch nicht, den Goldpreis sieht er bald wieder auf ca. 270.-$ pro Unze fallen. Zumindest traut auch Kotze dem Goldpreis zu, zuerst noch auf 350.- Dollar zu steigen. Wenigstens ein Lichtblick in seiner "Anal yse".TG)

Dirk Kotze, the manager of Coronation`s resources fund, said all the factors that had initially created the bull run in the gold price were still in place.

"The gold price tends to consolidate at certain levels and then people forget that it is in a general uptrend. It is only when equity markets fall that investors remember gold," Kotze said.

"But I am not a believer that gold is going to shoot through the roof. The run should peter out at about $330/$340, although it could even test $350.

"It will not fall back to $250 but rather around $270, which makes a huge difference to a producer like Harmony, so it brings a much healthier rating to gold shares."

Domestic gold stocks, however, should be the domain of the professional investor as they were not cheap and were trading in excess of present values.

An investor buying gold counters should only get into the sector over three to six months as the premium at which gold stocks were trading could expand even more over the short term before dipping slightly in the medium to long term.

"This is not a value investment like platinum shares, which you can buy for the long term. Gold shares should have been in your portfolio at the lower levels as this is not the kind of market that will take gold to $800," Kotze said.

[ThaiGuru]

@SchlimmerSilberfinger

Du bist bestimmt nicht paranoid

Das ist so, und ist bestimmt kein Zufall. Ja ich möchte nochmals wiederholen, was ich früher schon geschrieben habe.
Diese Striche (Gold Chartlinien) könnten theoretisch (praktisch?) nach Lust und Laune eingezeichnet werden, die meisten Anleger würden sie als Tatsache hinnehmen.

Das Zustandekommen dieser Goldpreischarts wird ja meines Wissens von der Allgemeinheit, und auch von der Presse nicht hinterfragt, geschweige denn überprüft.

Wie das täglich 2malige Goldpreis Fixing in London so abläuft, darüber war hier im Board früher schon diskutiert worden.

Wenn man die Zusammensetzung des Goldpreis Fixing Gremiums kennt, ist für mich (fast) alles möglich.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silvo]

Endlich: Thai zurück

[logo8]

ich schliesse mich an
- schön, wieder von Thai-Guru zu lesen -
logo8

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

#1787

Der (JPM) Krug geht zum Brunnen bis er bricht!

Leider werden die fundierten, qualifizierten, und umfassend recherchierten Berichte, und Aussagen von James Sinclair & Harry Schultz von der Oeffentlichkeit "noch" nicht die nötige Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt, die sie verdienen.

Der grosse Teil der amerikanischen Presse, geht auf ihre Veröffentlichungen schon gar nicht ein.

Es sollte aber eigentlich auch den grössten Zweiflern der "Goldverschwörungstheorie" schon einmal aufgefallen sein, dass meines Wissens, bis jetzt noch nie jemand von massiven Vorwürfen der Goldpreis Manipulation betroffenen Firmen, wie z.Bsp. JPM, City Bank, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, IMF, Weltbank, FED, etc., eine Klage gegen die Authoren dieser Vorwürfe erhoben wurde! Auch die GATA wurde noch nie verklagt, obwohl von dieser Seite seit Jahren massivste Vorwürfe wegen Goldpreis Manipulationen kommen!

Warum wohl?


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[manfred1_I]

an thai-guru

schön, dass du wieder an Bord bist.

Gold bulls strain on yokes as Bush sets sights on Iraq
Vernon Wessels
September 08 2002 at 07:20AM
Johannesburg - Expectations of a bull run on gold were high this week after the bullion price burst through the key resistance level of $315 an ounce on concerns of a full-scale military invasion of Iraq by the US and its ally.

Gold went as high as $321.85 on Friday, its highest level in more than six weeks, after gaining a whopping $4.55 to fix at $317.55 in London on Thursday.

As SCMB Securities noted, Friday`s $319.25 an ounce London fix meant gold had gained 15.5 percent from its 2001 year-end close of $276.50.

The 12-member gold index on the JSE Securities Exchange, which usually runs ahead of gains in the gold price, gained about 8 percent this week.

The gold index is the only major index to have made it into positive territory this year.

It has climbed more than 73 percent in the year to date while the FTSE/JSE Africa all share index has dropped more than 9 percent and the Top40 index has slipped almost 11 percent.

In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average has lost 16 percent this year, the Nasdaq has surrendered 33 percent and the S&P 500 has fallen 20 percent. The Dow dipped 7 percent last year and 6 percent in 2000 after surging 25 percent in 1999. The Nasdaq sank 21 percent
last year and 39 percent in 2000 after a wild 85 percent rise in 1999. The S&P, which lost 13 percent in 2001, was down 10 percent in 2000 and up 19 percent in 1999.

"As long as there is the threat of war, world equity markets remain weak, the dollar continues to lose value and oil prices climb, the gold bull market is still intact," said Allan Cooke, a director of Rice Rinaldi Securities.

But whether it was a good time to buy gold shares given their aggressive rally depended on the investor`s view.

"This is not a question of fundamentals but rather politics," Cooke said, adding that events after the September 11 anniversary and the looming threat of another Gulf War would be key factors in the short term.

In the medium term, however, technicals showed that the general trend for the gold price was still up, he said.

Gold has been in an upward trend since mid-2001.

Other positives in gold`s favour include good physical demand from Asia, the ruling out of gold sales by Germany, gold producers cutting their hedge books and the fall in Tokyo`s Nikkei this week to its lowest level in 19 years, amid fears Japan`s banking sector was on the rocks.

Dirk Kotze, the manager of Coronation`s resources fund, said all the factors that had initially created the bull run in the gold price were still in place.

"The gold price tends to consolidate at certain levels and then people forget that it is in a general uptrend. It is only when equity markets fall that investors remember gold," Kotze said.

"But I am not a believer that gold is going to shoot through the roof. The run should peter out at about $330/$340, although it could even test $350.

"It will not fall back to $250 but rather around $270, which makes a huge difference to a producer like Harmony, so it brings a much healthier rating to gold shares."

Domestic gold stocks, however, should be the domain of the professional investor as they were not cheap and were trading in excess of present values.

An investor buying gold counters should only get into the sector over three to six months as the premium at which gold stocks were trading could expand even more over the short term before dipping slightly in the medium to long term.

"This is not a value investment like platinum shares, which you can buy for the long term. Gold shares should have been in your portfolio at the lower levels as this is not the kind of market that will take gold to $800," Kotze said.



Es bleibt spannend auch demnächst beim Silber??

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/story.asp?id={980CA81F-B0F5-…

Sunday » September 8 » 2002

Venezuelan company picks Canadian gold producer to operate Las Cristinas mine

cp.org

Saturday, September 07, 2002

CARACAS (AP) - Venezuela`s government has chosen Canadian gold producer Crystallex International Corp. to operate four tracts of the 12-million-ounce Las Cristinas gold mine.

The details of the agreement with Crystallex will be defined soon, the state mining holding company, CVG, said in a statement Friday.

"After completing the necessary technical evaluation, construction of the mine should begin," said CVG president Francisco Rangel said.

The operator will process up to 40,000 tonnes of material per day once production begins, he said.

Production is expected to begin within two years, the company`s vice-president for corporate development, Richard Marshall, told Dow Jones Newswires on Saturday.

A smaller Canadian gold miner, Vannessa Ventures Ltd., still claims it has rights to operate the mine after it paid Placer Dome Inc. $50 last year for its share of the Minca partnership, which owned the concession. Placer retained a right to return to the deal.

But CVG, which owned the remainder of Minca, has dismissed the claim.

Placer Dome suspended construction of the mine in 1999, citing low gold prices. In June 2000, it wrote off its $116-million investment.

Crystallex reported last month it lost $3.2 million in the second quarter as revenues and gold production fell.

© Copyright 2002 The Canadian Press

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/09Sep2002_biz86.html

BUSINESS NEWS - Monday 09 September 2002

COMMODITIES

Oil and gold price gains continue on rising US-Iraq tensions

Weak data push base metals down


Oil prices rallied to their highest level in almost a year last week on the back of concerns that a US-led attack on Iraq is drawing closer.

Gold prices also gained from anxiety over the potential impact of a war on the global economy and nervousness on stock markets, but base metal prices were hit by renewed economic concerns.

Gold: Prices were fixed on Friday at $319.25 an ounce on the London Bullion Market, up from $312.80 the previous week.

In addition to the Iraq factor, analysts said stock market volatility also played a role in the price increase.

Silver: Prices failed to benefit markedly from gold`s gains. Silver was fixed at $4.53 an ounce on Friday, against $4.5650 the previous week.

``Silver has been pulled up sometimes by gold but it`s really been thought of this year as an industrial metal and demand is weak for industrial metals,`` said SG Securities analyst Stephen Briggs. (Die wirklichen Gründe für den Silberpreis Rückgang sind den Lesern des WO Boardes bekannt. Dieser Stephen Briggs, kennt sie anscheinend immer noch nicht? TG)

Palladium and platinum: Palladium prices held on to strong gains built up the previous week because of strong fund buying, though platinum prices gave back some of their gains.

An ounce of platinum stood at $545 in London, against $564 a week earlier. Palladium rose $1 to $331 per ounce.

Base metals: Prices were under pressure following a weaker-than-expected manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), at 50.5 points in August, unchanged from July.

On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper prices fell $29 to $1,486 per tonne. Three-month aluminium prices gained $7 to $1,322 per tonne. Three-month nickel prices shed $40 to $6,720, zinc dipped $11 to $770 per tonne, tin added $25 to $3,870, while lead prices eased $5 to $438 a tonne.

Oil: Prices rallied to their highest level in almost a year in London after an air raid by US and British warplanes on an Iraqi air defence base.

Brent crude for October delivery was quoted on Friday at $28.66 a barrel, up from $27.63 a week earlier. In New York, October light sweet crude futures gained to $29.72 from $28.90 a week earlier.

Analysts said price rises were also underpinned by figures showing large falls in US crude oil stock levels.

Rubber: Prices rose again owing to weaker supply even as industrial demand is picking up.

``In Thailand, there is still a problem with raw materials processors: There are not aggressive sellers, which is tending to keep the market up,`` said Symington broker Martin Hampson.

``If we see really good crops coming on, it will put the processors under pressure, but ... production is still tight.

[ThaiGuru]

8p ET Friday, September 6, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

We made big gains on the publicity front in
Europe this week.

Thanks to two years` worth of beseeching by
our friend Tom Cappuyns, a major newspaper in
Belgium, De Financieel-Economische Tijd -- the
Belgian Financial Times -- published on Thursday
a big report on gold and GATA that concluded
that the gold market is indeed being manipulated.
Whether you can read Dutch or not, you can view
the report here:

http://www.gata.org/GataInBelgianFT.html

And Reg Howe today forwarded the following message
from a mutual friend, Andre, in regard to Reg`s
lawsuit against the Bank for International
Settlements, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury
Department, and the bullion banks:

"Thought you should know.... Just now CNBC Europe
with Guy Johnson and Jeff Cudmore had an interview
with an Irish market analyst, Hugh Hendrie, and
they turned to the subject of gold.

"Hendrie said there had been recent litigation in
U.S. courts relative to short selling by bullion
banks that was encouraged by the Federal Reserve
and central banks.

"Hendrie generally accepted that the gold market
was being manipulated even though the litigation
had been rejected by the court.

"Hendrie thought that despite this manipulation,
the gold price was headed higher for all the
reasons thought to be pushing it up....

"I was impressed that this was a mainstream
program viewed all over the world, and I think
you should be aware of it, as it acknowledges
your work in this regard."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

06 September, 2002

News update from the Idaho silver fields

Pennaluna Prospector Update Edition -- Coeur d’Alene, Idaho – September 6, 2002

While many folks were taking leisurely summer vacations on the lake or over on the coast or up in the mountains, most Northwest miners were keeping their nose close to the grindstone.

Since the present climb in metals prices seems a little different from the false starts of recent years, miners don’t want to waste any time. As a result, area mining activity remained at relatively high levels through the summer. Here are some of the recent developments:

* Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) – Hecla is finalizing a lease with CVG-Minerven (the gold mining company owned by the Venezuelan government) for “Block B” in Venezuela’s historically rich El Callao gold mining district.

The block is roughly seven square miles and Hecla says it includes three narrow vein high-grade underground mines that produced more than 1.5 million ounces of gold over 50 years ago. The firm feels the property matches well with its expertise in hardrock narrow vein mining. Hecla already has a Venezuelan presence, since it operates the La Camorra mine -- which in the first half of the year produced over 86,000 ounces of gold at an average cash cost of $134 an ounce.

In other Hecla news, the firm got a “buy” rating from Merrill Lynch in mid-August. Later in the month, it broke off talks with the feds and state over the cost of environmental clean up at several Idaho sites. Hecla started the year at .94 and has been trading lately at about $4.15.

* Mines Management (OTCBB:MNMM) -- Last week, Spokane-based Mines Management reported it had bought controlling ownership in the massive Rock Lake silver and copper deposit in western Montana’s Sanders County. The mine had been controlled by Noranda Minerals and is probably better known as the Montanore Project. It’s estimated to contain around 260 million ounces of silver and 2 billion pounds of copper.

Although Rock Creek may be one of the largest silver deposits in the world, the company says it isn’t profitable to remove the metal at present prices. But it thinks silver is undervalued and is betting on rising prices to make mine development profitable.

Mines Management is an interesting little outfit. It’s headed by Dr. Bill Green, PhD, long-time professor of mining engineering at the University of Idaho. He’s scored previous mining successes and now serves on the boards of several Canadian and U.S. mining firms. Chris Broili, Msc, is VP of Exploration and studied under Dr. Green at U of I years ago. Chris has a quarter century of experience in worldwide mineral exploration, including stints at Atlas Precious Metals and Yamana Resources.

Also on the management team: Jerry Pogue, well-known businessman and junior resource financier; Robert Russell, a professional engineer who is a mining management consultant; Roy Franklin, a CPA; and Jack Gustavel, a banker who is chairman of Idaho Independent Bank and once served as Director of the Portland branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

As of its last 10-Q filing, Mines Management had only about 5 million shares outstanding. The stock has been trading lately near .37.

[Just a sidelight: The county seat of Sanders County is Thompson Falls, just over Thompson Pass and down the road a ways from Murray, Idaho… which more than a few of us know as the home of the Sprag Pole Inn. See http://www.murray-idaho.com for a little about colorful Murray.]

* Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) -- In early August, Coeur posted a quarterly loss of 16 cents a share. That compared to a loss of 8 cents in the year-earlier period. Despite the red ink, operations generated about $100,000 in positive cash flow, versus a $10 million loss a year ago. Coeur says it’s still on track to produce a record 15 million ounces of silver in 2002 -- a 40% jump from last year -- at an average cash cost of around $2.95 an ounce.

This week, the SEC declared Coeur’s registration statement effective for its June secondary offering of 13 3/8% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes. Coeur stock started the year at about 80 cents, and now is up around $2.

* Minera Andes (OTCBB:MNEAF/CDNX:MAI) -- Spokane-based Minera Andes,
which controls over 400,000 acres of mineral lands in Argentina, says it has started a precious metals exploration program in four Patagonia provinces. Devaluation of the Argentina peso earlier this year has cut exploration costs.

This new program is in addition to advanced-stage exploration at its Huevos Verdes gold and silver project in Santa Cruz. Minera recently boosted the estimated size of that system, based on drilling by joint venture partner Mauricio Hochschild & Cia. Ltda, the large Peruvian mining firm. That helped gain Minera a “buy” rating from The Hard Rock Analyst. Shares have traded lately at around .30, near the high end of their 52-week range.

* Sterling Mining (PinkSheets:SRLM) -- Sterling continues to expands its silver claims in the Silver Valley, recently adding about 300 acres of new property… including ground in the 11th Hour and Silver Apex claim groups, along with an addition to the Idaho-Leadville group.

Earlier this summer, Sterling started seasonal work on its Kelly Silver Project -- 20 acres of claims in the historic Marysville Mining District west of Helena, where it hopes to develop a profitable small-scale silver mine. It also started seasonal work at the Kimberly Gold Mine Project down in central Idaho. That project is operated by Kimberly Gold Mines, Inc., a Sterling affiliate. Sterling stock has traded recently at about .23.

* Atlas Mining (OTCBB:ALMI) -- Atlas said yesterday it has inked an agreement with Lintech International to market and distribute halloysite clay from its Dragon Mine down in Utah. Halloysite is a relatively rare type of kaolin clay with a number of uses, including white translucent china and porcelain. Lintech is headquartered in Macon, Georgia, and distributes specialty chemicals and minerals.

Over the summer, 78-year-old Atlas became fully SEC reporting and its shares reappeared on the OTCBB. But during the quiet period associated with the SEC filing, the stock pretty much dropped off everybody’s radar screen. So shares of the diversified mining, timber and underground mining contracting firm are now trading at just under a dime.

* Stillwater Mining (NYSE:SWC) -- Stillwater continues to get badly battered. It took another hit two days ago, when it reported that labor problems at its mine over near Nye, Montana, would slow production and hurt earnings. The news sent the stock plunging nearly 20% on Wednesday, and led to a downgrade from JP Morgan.

The sole U.S. producer of palladium and platinum and the new home of many Silver Valley miners, Stillwater has for some time been pinched by weak PGM demand. Shares have traded above $27 in the past year. Now they’re down under $7.

* Note to readers: These Pennaluna Prospector Update newsletters focus mainly on mining stocks from the Inland Northwest. As a result, we’re sometimes asked if we trade any stocks besides mining stocks. The answer is absolutely yes. We trade stocks of every kind on every U.S. and Canadian exchange, as well as NASDAQ, OTCBB and Pink Sheets.

“Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you
were a member of Congress. But I repeat
myself.” Mark Twain


Editor: Tom Wobker

[ThaiGuru]

@logo8
@silvo
@manfred1

Vielen Dank.

Freue mich ebenso, wieder Eure Meinungen und Beiträge zum Gold-, und Silber Geschehen im Gold Board lesen zu können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS:

Da ich die Beiträge im Thread nur über 20 Postings zurückverfolgen kann, (Könnte das nicht vom WTeam irgendwie technisch gelöst werden????) entschuldige ich mich jetzt schon dafür, falls ich dadurch eventuelle an mich gestellte Fragen nicht beantworten kann.

Die mir in den letzten 5 Wochen zugesandten Boardmails, werde ich ab morgen nach und nach beantworten.

[kaepntnemo]

@thaiguru,
long time no see no hear-
schoen, dass Du wieder da bist. It`s about time...

beste gruesse
-nemo-

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/2002/09/item200209090841…

Mon, Sep 9 2002 9:42 AM AEST

Lake Cowal gold exploration to continue

Gold exploration will continue at Lake Cowal near West Wyalong in southern central NSW after a court ruling in favour of mining company Barrick Gold.

Some Aboriginal representatives had questioned the validity of a National Parks permit allowing removal of artefacts from the site.

Mooka Traditional Owners` chairman Neville Williams claimed a National Parks` permit giving Barrick permission to collect Aboriginal artefacts at Lake Cowal was invalid because correct procedure was not followed when it was granted.

But in the Land and Environment Court on Friday, Justice Neal Bignold ruled National Parks had acted properly in granting the permit.

A spokesman for Barrick Gold says the ruling also confirms the company followed appropriate guidelines when applying for the permit.

Barrick has continued exploratory drilling at the site during the court hearing.

The company is not expected to make a decision on the viability of the Lake Cowal mine until next year.

[ThaiGuru]

8:33p ET Sunday, September 8, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

When you have an hour to read about what
is REALLY going on with gold and the world,
check out the latest three postings at Reg
Howe`s Internet site, www.goldensextant.com.

First, Howe has written a brief commentary
introducing a new essay by his business partner,
Bob Landis. Howe`s commentary is here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary22.html#anchor141747

Then there is Landis` essay itself, "Alan
Greenspan is No John Law," which, analyzing the
comparisons recently made between the Fed chairman
and the great financial swindler of 18th-century
France, concludes that Greenspan is being let off
lightly.

Landis` essay is the most profound, scholarly,
and insightful one on the subject of money and
the markets that I have read this year. It`s also
pretty funny. It is long but well worth the time
of reading. Landis` essay is here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/GreenspanLaw.html#anchor79138

And then there is crucial updating of gold
derivatives data and charts by Howe and GATA
consultant Mike Bolser, showing that the gold
price suppression scheme remains in high gear
at MorganChase and Citibank. It is here:

http://www.goldensextant.com/Charts.html#anchor161737

Thanks so much to Howe, Landis, and Bolser for
this invaluable work.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[manfred1_I]

MACMIN LIMITED 2002-09-09 ASX-SIGNAL-G

HOMEX - Brisbane

+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Shareholders approved the change of name from Macmin Ltd to Macmin
Silver Ltd. This change reflects Macmin`s focus on silver development
and exploration in the Texas District of South-East Queensland (see
also release to the ASX on drilling results and doubling in size of
the silver geochemical anomaly at Twin Hills, dated Friday September
6th, 2002).

Shareholders also approved the sale of Macmin`s gold and gold/copper
assets in Papua New Guinea to subsidiary New Guinea Gold Corporation
(listed as NGG on the TSX Venture Exchange). At the close of the
transaction, Macmin will own approximately 65% of NGG. This sale is
also part of Macmin`s strategy to become a silver focused company but
retaining non-operating exposure to gold by way of NGG.

In accordance with Listing Rule 3.13.2, I advise that all motions as
per the Notice of Meeting were carried without amendments.

The table below lists the eligible proxies received in respect of
each motion. All resolutions were decided by a show of hands.

MOTION RESULT
FOR AGAINST ABSTAIN TOTAL

1. Approval for Change
of Name to Macmin Carried 37,010,697 212,000 7,500 37,230,197
Silver Ltd

2. Approve Sale of
Macmin (PNG) Carried 24,151,189 189,500 - 24,340,689
Limited

3. Ratify Previous Issue
to Saltbush Nominees Carried 36,508,697 434,500 287,000 37,230,197

G M Edwards
COMPANY SECRETARY

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt beim Gold heute, wie es zur Zeit aussieht, auch wieder!

Die asiatischen Börsen zeigen sich heute am Morgen eher schwach, wenn man vom von der japanischen Regierung gestützten Nikkei 225 einmal absieht. Die Ausnahme: Taiwan z.Z. + 1.25%

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Gruss ThaiGuru

[keepitshort]

Die EZB will die Zinsen nicht senken

die FED wird die Zinsen auch nicht senken

das Fluchtkapital von Aktienverkäufen geht in Bonds
erhöht die Nachfrage nach Bonds
Bonds steigen im Preis

deshalb sinken die Zinsen für 10-jährige US-Staatsanleihen

irgendwann dreht das Momentum für 10-jährige US-Bonds
denn diese dürften im Überkauftem Bereich liegen.

[Tippgeber1]

Hallo Thai mein Freund

komme gerade aus Australien weider- hoffe, dass auch Du Dich gut erholt hast mein Freund.

Hier mal ein wahnsinnig interessanter Artikel, der in etwa meinen Meinung wiedergibt. Was hälst Du davon?

"Traumtaenzer in der heilen Boersenwelt

Von Andreas Hoose

Eine interessante Umfrage hat der TV-Boersensender
n-tv kuerzlich veroeffentlicht: Danach glauben 70 Prozent
der Fondsmanager, dass der aktuelle Baerenmarkt noch in
diesem Quartal zu Ende gehen wird; 30 Prozent sind der Meinung,
dass den Baeren spaetestens Mitte 2003 das Fell ueber die Ohren
gezogen wird - und nicht ein einziger (!) unter den Befragten
kann sich vorstellen, dass die Boersenschwaeche ueber das Jahr
2003 hinaus reichen koennte. Als waschechter Antizykliker fuehle
ich mich in der Gesellschaft von null Prozent der Aktienstrategen
durchaus wohl...

Auch der Itzehoer Aktienclub vertritt in seinem juengsten Rundbrief
eine derzeit recht populaere Meinung: Seit der Flaute von 1938 bis
1942 hat es keinen einzigen Zeitraum mehr gegeben, in dem
die wichtigsten Boersen laenger als drei Jahre in Folge gefallen
waeren. Fuenf Jahre spaeter haetten die Maerkte nach einer
derartigen Durststrecke stets hoeher notiert als vorher. Schlussfolgerung
der cleveren Strategen: Da einiges dafuer spricht, dass die
Aktienmaerkte 2002 tatsaechlich das dritte Jahr in Folge mit einem
Minus abschliessen werden, koenne man, eine Aufholjagd
von fuenf Jahren voraus gesetzt, jetzt wieder mit einer jaehrlichen
Rendite von 17 Prozent kalkulieren. Sollten die Boersen die
alten Hoechstkurse in der bevorstehenden Hausse erst nach
zehn Jahren erreichen, seien den Anlegern Renditen von acht
Prozent pro Jahr sicher.

Heile Boersenwelt also? Nicht ganz. Ein wichtiges Argument
wird dabei naemlich unter den Teppich gekehrt, und ich
wundere mich wirklich, warum gestandene Boersenexperten
darueber in schoener Regelmaessigkeit hinwegsehen: Noch
nie in der Geschichte der Boersen haben die Kurse nach einem
zwei- oder gar dreijaehrigen Baerenmarkt ausgerechnet dann zu
einer Aufholjagd angesetzt, wenn das Bewertungsniveau der
marktbreiten Indizes ueber dem historischen Durchschnitt gelegen
hat. Baerenmaerkte, zumal solche des gegenwaertigen Kalibers,
endeten ausnahmslos dann, wenn die Bewertungen der marktbreiten
Indizes auf ein im historischen Vergleich unterdurchschnittliches
Niveau abgerutscht waren. Auch die durchaus bekannte Tatsache,
dass kapitale Baeren die Gewinne des vorangegangenen
Bullenmarktes gerne vollstaendig ausradieren, wird geflissentlich
verschwiegen. Verstaendlich ist das durchaus. Wer moechte sich
schon einen Index-Stand beim Dow Jones von 4000 Zaehlern
vorstellen - und dazu noch die Folgen fuer die Boersen weltweit?
Die niedrigen Zinsen, die statt dessen gerne ins Feld gefuehrt werden,
aendern an diesen Fakten leider gar nichts.

Immer wieder wurde in den vergangenen Wochen auch die
Hoffnung genaehrt, die Anleger haetten jetzt endlich kapituliert.
Der V-Dax als Massstab der Volatilitaet wird bemueht, um diese
These zu untermauern. Nach Meinung einiger Experten liegt ein
Kaufsignal vor, wenn dieser Indikator Werte von 50 oder mehr
aufweist. Notiert der V-Dax dagegen bei weniger als 20, solle
man aussteigen. Wenn Boerse nur immer so einfach waere.

Leider hat die Sache naemlich mehrere Haken: Einmal behalten
derartige Regeln nur so lange ihre Gueltigkeit, so lange sich nur
eine geringe Zahl von Anlegern daran orientiert. Mittlerweile
findet sich allerdings kaum noch eine ernsthafte Boersenpublikation,
die sich nicht ausfuehrlich mit dem VDAX beschaeftigen wuerde.
Je mehr Investoren aber einsteigen, nur weil der Volatilitaets-Index
dies angeraten erscheinen laesst, desto wirkungsloser wird das Ganze.

Auch der Boersencrash von 1987 scheint bei den Analysten der
heutigen Generation vollstaendig vergessen zu sein - sonst wuerde
sich mancher seine Worte vielleicht noch einmal ueberlegen.
Angeblich sind Werte von 50 beim Vola-Index deshalb ein
zuverlaessiger Indikator fuer demnaechst steigende Kurse, weil
vergleichbare Werte zuletzt waehrend der Asienkrise 1998 und
unmittelbar nach den Anschlaegen des 11. September aufgetreten
waren. Wer aber weiss, dass der Indikator im Oktobercrash von
1987 auf sagenhafte 175 Zaehler katapultiert wurde, der wird sich
bei einem Stand von 50 oder 54 noch ganz entspannt zuruecklehnen.

Die pessimistische Stimmung unter den Anlegern wird zur
Zeit ebenfalls gerne als "Beweis" zitiert, dass die Talfahrt nun
ihr Ende gefunden habe. Das gefluegelte Wort von der Kapitulation
macht die Runde. Interessanterweise hat im Anschluss an
starke Verlusttage bislang jedoch in schoener Regelmaessigkeit
eine heftige Erholung der Kurse eingesetzt, verbunden mit einem
voelligen Stimmungswandel. Das alles, wohlgemerkt, innerhalb weniger Tage.

Meiner Ansicht nach wird die viel beschworene Kapitulation
voellig anders aussehen. Wenn es endlich soweit ist, wohl erst in
ein paar Jahren, dann wird niemand auch nur auf die Idee kommen,
die Frage zu stellen, ob das nun das lang ersehnte Ereignis war,
oder nicht. Es wird so offensichtlich sein, dass man unmoeglich
darueber hinwegsehen kann. Niemand wird einem Engagement in
Aktien auch nur ein Fuenkchen Hoffnung geben. Der Tenor wird
vielmehr lauten: "Finger weg von der Boerse". Und vor allem
wird die Stimmung unter den Anlegern nicht schon nach wenigen
Tage wieder leicht euphorische Zuege annehmen.

Die Feststellung, dass sehr viele Anleger derzeit noch guter Dinge
sind, ist beileibe nicht aus der Luft gegriffen. Gefahren fuer die
Boersenkurse gehen vielmehr vom nach wie vor extrem hohen
Investitionsgrad der US-Anleger aus. Sehen wir uns dazu einige Zahlen an:

Auf dem Hoehepunkt der vergangenen Hausse, im Februar 2000,
hatten Investoren in den USA fuer die Rekordsumme von
55 Milliarden US-Dollar Fonds-Anteile gekauft. Es war der
hoechste bis dahin registrierte Wert. Im ersten Quartal des
gleichen Jahres war die unglaubliche Summe von 140 Milliarden
US-Dollar in Fonds geflossen. Zum Quartalsende betrug das gesamte
Fondsvolumen in den USA stattliche 4,5 Billionen US-Dollar;
davon waren 4,0 Billionen allein waehrend der 90er Jahre von
den Fondsmanagern eingesammelt worden. 4,5 Billionen US-Dollar
entsprachen zum damaligen Zeitpunkt rund 30 Prozent der
Marktkapitalisierung aller US-Unternehmen. Heute, gut zweieinhalb
Jahre spaeter, ist die Summe der gehaltenen Fondsanteile auf
3,0 Billionen US-Dollar geschrumpft, repraesentiert jetzt aber
37 Prozent der Boersenkapitalisierung in den USA.

Aufschlussreich sind diese Zahlen vor allem dann, wenn man
sie mit dem letzten grossen Baerenmarkt Mitte der 70er Jahre
des vorigen Jahrhunderts vergleicht. Seinerzeit besassen
US-Anleger Fonds-Anteile im Wert von 56 Milliarden
US-Dollar - also in etwa die Summe, die allein im Februar 2000
in Aktienfonds geflossen war! Am Ende des Baerenmarktes
waren davon noch 31 Milliarden US-Dollar uebrig. Beide Werte
entsprachen damals etwa fuenf (!) Prozent der US-Marktkapitalisierung.

Auf dem Hoehepunkt der Aktienhausse des Jahres 1973 gab
es in den Vereinigten Staaten 365 Fonds. Bis zum Ende der
Korrektur waren davon noch 314 uebrig. Am Ende des Jahrzehnts
existierten noch 288 Fonds. Die Zahl der Anleger schrumpfte im
gleichen Zeitraum von elf Millionen in Zeiten der Euphorie ueber
zehn Millionen am Ende der Baisse bis auf rund 7,2 Millionen am
Ende des Jahrzehnts.

Ganz anders das Bild in unseren Tagen: Im ersten Quartal 2000
existierten in den Vereinigten Staaten 4000 Aktienfonds.
Heute sind es 4800. Die Zahl der Anlegerkonten kletterte im
gleichen Zeitraum von 154 Millionen auf 169 Millionen.

Zwei Schlussfolgerungen lassen diese Zahlen zu: Zunaechst
ist festzustellen, dass die Zahl der Anleger sowie die Summe
der gehaltenen Fondsanteile in den USA zum heutigen Tag alles
bisher da gewesene in den Schatten stellt. Es braucht nicht viel
Phantasie, sich auszumalen, was passiert, wenn auch nur ein kleiner
Teil dieser Investoren sich dazu entschliesst, Fondsanteile zu verkaufen.
Ein massiver Kurseinbruch waere die Folge.

Zum Zweiten ist es sehr erstaunlich, dass die Anzahl der Fonds
sowie die Zahl der Aktionaere in den zurueckliegenden Jahren
ausgepraegter Boersenschwaeche stark zugenommen hat. Das
bekannte Argument, diesmal sei "eben alles anders", und Anleger
wuerden trotz der Kursverluste auf ihren Aktienpaketen sitzen
bleiben, sollte man sich besser nicht zu eigen machen. Damit
sind schon ganze Boersianergenerationen auf die Nase gefallen.
Eher schon legen die Zahlen den Verdacht nahe, dass die in
diesen Tagen haeufig zitierte Angst in den Koepfen der Menschen
eben doch keine so dominierende Rolle spielt, wie das in den
Medien gerne erzaehlt wird, jedenfalls noch nicht.

Und von "Kapitulation" kann ueberhaupt keine Rede sein.
Wenn die Maerkte ihren Boden endlich erreichen, werden
sich die Anleger scharenweise von ihren Fondsanteilen trennen.
Das durchschnittliche Kurs-Gewinn-Verhaeltnis marktbreiter
Indizes wird einstellig werden, so wie das in der Vergangenheit
am Ende eines Baerenmarktes immer der Fall war. Wer dagegen
den Boden beim S&P 500 beim derzeitigen KGV von
etwas ueber 30 vermutet, der wird sich noch wundern.

Die geschilderten Fakten lassen fuer mich leider nur einen
Schluss zu: Der Baerenmarkt ist noch lange nicht zu Ende."





Liebe Grüße an einen Freund



Tippgeber

[silvo]

zu #1818 Bericht über Fondsmanager: Diese Leute haben überhaupt keinen blassen Schimmer Ahnung was tatsächlich in der Wirtschaft (kojunkturell) stattfindet. Bin selbst in der Bau-Möbelbranche tätig. Zulieferer jammern daß die Auftragslage bzw Zukunftsaussichten seit 25 Jahren noch nie so schlecht waren. Nach meiner Erfahrung haben Anlageberater und Fondsmanager immer noch nicht begriffen was wirtschaftich los ist. (Ich werde von Bankmitarbeitern ausgelacht wenn ich etwas von Gold- Goldminen vorschwärme)

[ThaiGuru]

@Tippgeber1

Man kann Dir alles mögliche vorwerfen, aber eines bestimmt nicht; dass Du die Zeichen der Zeit nicht erkennt hättest.

Dein veröffentlicher Artikel von Andreas Hoose, gibt Dir Recht in Deinen Ansichten, die Du schon früher gepostet hast, und die auch meine eigenen Ansichten, und auch die einiger der aktiven User in diesem Thread wiederspiegeln.

Die grosse Masse von Anlegern jedoch, sind leider immer noch Träumer, getragen von falschen Hoffnungen einer wirtschaftlichen Erholung, die so nicht kommen wird, und von einer leider immer noch weit verbreiteten Ueberzeugung geprägt, dass es die da oben schon noch richten werden.

Dass Gold und Silber preismanipuliert sind, wird auch heute noch von vielen Lesern/Anlegern, als unwahrscheinlich, ja sogar als Hirngespengste vermutet, und Anlagen in bestimmte Aktien, Bonds, Imobilien, etc. werden immer noch bevorzugt. Dabei werden sie zudem noch von vielen Analysten, und bekannten Wirtschaftsgrössen in Ihrer (falschen) Ueberzeugung bestärkt.

Sicher gibt es priveligierte Anleger, die selbst an den heutigen volatilen, crashähnlichen Zuständen, und den dazugehörenden Erhohlungen, an den Börsen eine Chance finden zu profitieren, und Geld mit Aktien zu verdienen.

Doch die meisten Anleger, haben diese Begabung/Wissen nicht, und verlieren seit längerer Zeit schon, immer wieder Teile ihres gesparten Geldes im Aktienhandel.

Deinen geposteten Bericht finde ich einen die Zustände sehr gut erkannten Beitrag.

Wie hat Andreas Hoose doch noch geschrieben?

Alles (Crash) wird noch etwas länger dauern, als viele glauben mögen!



Dein Freund

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@silvo

Wer zuletzt lacht, lacht am besten!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH

Bush saber-rattling boosts gold
Drums beating for test of $330 an ounce

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=…

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:43 AM ET Sept. 9, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold`s rise above $320 an ounce Monday has the drums beating for a swift autumn rally in the metal`s price.

Gold and gold mining shares are up sharply in the run-up to the Sept. 11 anniversary.

On Monday morning gold rose to $323 an ounce in the spot market, not far from the $329.30 reached May 31. The metal disappointed gold newsletter editors during the summer, when both gold and the stock market lost ground.

Now, investors say global events - and not just a faltering American stock market -- will boost bullion prices.

"The gold market is now apparently disregarding stocks to some extent and -- with the drums of war beating more feverishly and the 9/11 anniversary racing toward us -- is beginning to give greater weight to geopolitical risks," says Brien Lundin, editor of the 31-year-old Gold Newsletter.

Lundin, who each year stages the New Orleans Investment Conference in November, says the metal`s big test will be $325 and ultimately, $330 an ounce, a level not seen since October 1999. "We`ll see over the coming sessions whether this latest show of muscle from gold has the necessary sustaining power," he says.

Observers nearly all point to $325 an ounce as a kind of test for the metal, which along with government bonds are this year`s biggest-gaining investment class.

"I`m still looking for a probe of and then a break above $325 this month or next," says James Turk, a longtime newsletter editor and founder of payment system GoldMoney.com. "That will mark the clear beginning of gold`s bull market." Turk`s six-month target, once gold hurdles $325 an ounce, is above $400.

President Bush on Monday was trying to persuade Canada to join the White House war on Iraq and its leader, long-reigning Saddam Hussein.

John Doody, of the revered newsletter Gold Stock Analyst, has just completed a study of gold during the Gulf War. Gold staged its biggest gains -- about $68 an ounce from the lows, or 20 percent -- in the weeks just before Aug. 2, 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, and in the three following weeks.

"The gold price was in a decline the first half of 1990 despite Saddam`s increasing threats against Israel, including use of chemical weapons," Doody notes. "By mid-June, Iraqi troops were being gathered on the Iraq/Kuwait border and Saddam`s possible sinister intentions drove gold higher. The price spiked $10 an ounce (higher) on Aug. 2 as Iraq invaded, and gold hit $414 an ounce three weeks later."

Doody said he expects a similar price gain "as tensions heat up, but this time the fear will not be of Saddam`s army, but his possible early use of chemical weapons."

Not everyone is tying gold`s future gains to the Middle East. James Grant, of Grant`s Interest Rate Observer, says gold almost certainly will gain as investors lose faith in Fed chief Alan Greenspan and the central banker`s waning abilities to inflate the economy.



"Gold eventually will trade as a Greenspan reciprocal," Grant said. "What is bad for Greenspan is good for gold." Grant, who will be speaking at the New York gold show later this month, says the investing public is steadily losing its faith in the Fed`s management of interest rates. In turn, the dollar will lose face among international investors.

"Greenspan is hugely overbought, to use a stock market term," Grant told me. "He is bound to enter a personal correction, and when he does people will stop holding the extra dollar." Gold prices tend to strengthen as investors abandon the dollar and dollar-linked securities.

Mike Darda, an economist at think tank Polyconomics Inc., notes the Fed`s expansion of money supply could weaken an already tottering dollar. Darda says the Fed is expanding its balance sheet at an annual rate of 7.5 percent - by buying Treasury securities with newly minted dollar bills.

On Monday, gold mining shares rose more than 3 percent to their highest point since mid-July. One company, Crystallex International (KRY: news, chart, profile), saw its shares gain as much as 45 percent on the American Stock Exchange in early trading. The company, after years of waiting, says it is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel in Venezuela, where it is vying to mine the vast Las Cristinas gold deposits.

"This is the first step, and there should be more details later in the week relative to the company`s agreement to operate the project," said Bob Bishop of investment service Gold Mining Stock Report.



For more information on the New York gold show in September, see the schedule of events at International Investment Conferences. Besides Jim Grant, several dozen mining executives, newsletter editors and analysts are scheduled to speak, including Bob Bishop, John Doody, Rick Rule and Adrian Day. Admission to the two-day event is free with registration.

In November, the 2002 New Orleans Investment Conference will feature those speakers and others, including mutual fund pioneer John Templeton and newsletter editor Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters. The New Orleans conference is considered the longest-running counter-trend investment conference in the U.S., dating back to the 1970s. See the schedule for the New Orleans show.

Thom Calandra`s StockWatch by e-mail

You can get free delivery of Thom Calandra`s StockWatch every trading day. Sign up for Thom Calandra`s StockWatch newsletter at MarketWatch.com. No strings attached. Subscribe today

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wsrn.com/apps/news/art.xpl?id=5148261&f=NEWS

DJ. INTERVIEW:

Silver Could Outshine Gold In 2003

Sunday, September 8, 2002 09:50:04

TOKYO, Sep 09, 2002 (ODJ Select via COMTEX) -- By Jim Hawe

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(Dow Jones)

Despite being seen as something of an ugly duckling among precious metals, silver could be ready for a breakout in 2003, and even outshine gold, said one Australian investment advisor.

Tony Locantro, a Perth-based advisor and author of a book on speculative investing, has placed silver at the top of his list of investment options most likely to get caught up in a big wave of speculative buying.

"Silver looks compelling for several reasons, first of which is the supply and demand situation," said Locantro. "Silver production has been at a deficit to
demand for 11 straight years. And this demand could increase further now that the U.S. government has signed a bill to purchase silver off the market to cover coinage programs after virtually exhausting its stockpile of the metal," Locantro said.

Like most market watchers, Locantro has seen the pendulum of investment sentiment swing decisively away from paper assets and toward hard assets like precious metals after the bursting of the tech bubble and in the wake of the
Enron Corp. (ENRNQ) debacle.

While gold may still be the "sentimental favorite" among investors looking to get into precious metals, Locantro sees much more upside potential for silver.

Locantro points out that despite the recent spike over US$5.00, silver is still trading near historical lows - and after working for eight years as a police officer before joining the financial world, Locantro feels that he knows a steal when he sees one.

"The current weakness in the price of silver could very well be, with the benefit of hindsight, an excellent entry point."

Spot silver was trading at US$4.52 an ounce early Monday in Asia, unchanged from late Friday in New York.

Locantro went on to say that silver`s low price could make it the metal of choice when investors look for a cheaper alternative to gold.

"Let`s say the price of gold doubles. That would put it at around US$640 an ounce, which is going to be too expensive for many people. But if the price of silver were to double, it would still be trading under US$10."

And Locantro sees a good chance for silver to double its price some time next year.

"In 2003 I would hope to see a price acceleration toward US$10.00 an ounce and beyond as the shift into hard assets gathers momentum."

Locantro says that a big rally in silver will likely be sparked by a rise in the gold price, but adds that silver will eventually "disengage" itself from gold and even outperform the yellow metal in percentage terms.

For 2003 Locantro expects gold will test its 1996 high of around US$418/oz. Spot gold opened Monday morning in Sydney at US$320, up from US$318.05 late Friday in New York.

Portfolio Recommendations

Locantro said that he has been urging all of his clients to add a silver lining to their portfolios.

Specifically, he recommends a 30% exposure to silver, half physical and half in silver mining company stocks. He also recommends a 30% exposure to gold divided into physical, mining company stocks and exploration company stocks, followed by 15% in energy and other precious metals and 25% in cash.

"I tend to be pretty biased toward resources," admitted Locantro.

Locantro said that he has personally been buying shares in Australian-based exploration companies such as Herald Resources Limited (A.HRD), Independence Gold NL (A.IGO), and Exco Resources NL (A.EXS).

Locantro said that he is a firm believer in the adage that the best investments are the ones that the majority is still unaware of. And that is why he is so keen on silver as this "poor man`s gold" has been so overlooked by the
mainstream investors.

"You sometimes see stories in the paper about a rise in gold prices with pictures of shining bullion bars right on the front page, but this is never the case with silver," said Locantro. "Once silver makes it to the front page, I
think that is when I will start selling."

-By Jim Hawe, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2950; [e-mail]



(C) Copyright 2002 ODJ

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1…

09/09/2002 18:31 - (SA)

Gold index ends 9.3% up

Johannesburg

Gold stocks were the star performers on the bourse on Monday, keeping shares firmly in positive territory, as bullion danced higher on worries over a possible US strike against Iraq.

South Africa`s number three gold producer Harmony led the charge, storming 12% or R19.27 higher to close at R179.80.

Larger peer AngloGold lurched 9.2% or R47 higher to close at R557, and Gold Fields put on 8.7% or R11.75 to R147.30.

Their gains propelled the gold index 9.3% higher, and boosted the all-share index 1.3% or 122.4 points up to 9662.6 points.

The value of trades was about R2.9bn at the close. Spot gold was at $322.60/3.10 an ounce at 17:40, from New York`s close on Friday of $320.00/320.50 as investors sought bullion`s traditional safe haven status ahead of the September 11 anniversary and the threat of war against Iraq.

Oil prices rose close to their highest level in a year on Monday, as the United States stepped up diplomatic efforts to win support for toppling Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

But synthetic fuel producer Sasol was unmoved by higher oil prices, extending its losses by 2% to R117.50 after posting a 25% surge in annual headline earnings on Monday.

The results were in line with analysts` expectations. Sasol has outperformed the local market by over 25% this year. "What choked Sasol was its outlook," said one trader.

Sasol Chief Executive Pieter Cox said he saw modest earnings growth in the next year, had no expectations of a big pick-up in chemicals demand, and that there would be a moderate softening in the oil price.

Luxury-goods maker Richemont also exerted a negative pull on the bourse, losing 4.2% or 81c to close at R18.49, as the Swiss-based company tracked losses in the international luxury goods sector.

Mobile phone group M-Cell jumped more than 8% on news that it was not going to pursue an investment in a fixed-line licence to rival state-controlled monopoly Telkom.

M-Cell rose 8.5% or 80c to close at R10.20. Bank stocks also added to the market`s positive tone, as investors factored in an interest rate rise after the Reserve Bank`s monetary policy committee meeting this week.

Standard Bank hopped up 1.4% or 40c to R28.50. Ten of 21 economists polled by Reuters forecast the bank would increase the key repo rate by between 50 and 100 basis points.

South Africa`s largest furniture maker Steinhoff International added 0.7% to close at 745c, after reporting annual earnings up by around a half.

[ThaiGuru]

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20020909_614.html



Monday Gold Coin Prices

The Associated Press

NEW YORK Copyright 2002 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. Sept. 9 — Selected coin prices

Monday

Gold Coins

Bid Chg.

American Eagle, 1 troy oz. $337.01 up $ 3.39
American Eagle, .50 oz. $174.15 up $ 1.75
American Eagle, .25 oz. $87.88 up $ 0.88
American Eagle, .10 oz. $36.12 up $ 0.36

Austla. Kangaroo, 1 troy oz. $337.01 up $ 3.39

Aus. Philharmonic, 1 troy oz. $337.01 up $ 3.39

Maple Leaf, 1 troy oz. $337.01 up $ 3.39

China Panda 1994, 1 troy oz. $341.85 up $ 3.44

Krugerrand, 1 troy oz. $328.50 up $ 3.25

U.S. Silver Coins $1000 face
value pre 1964 circulation. $3449.88 up $ 3.58

U.S. Silver Eagle, 1 troy oz. $6.39 up $ 0.01

U.S. Platinum Eagle, 1 troy oz. $575.08 up $ 4.19

Bulk wholesale prices. Source: Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc.

Rare U.S. Coins (Mint State 65)

Bid Asked

Morgan Silver Dollar $70.00 $78.00

Peace Silver Dollar $72.00 $85.00

Walking Liberty Half Dollar $55.00 n.a.

$20 Liberty Gold Type III $2360.00 n.a.

$20 St Gaudens, motto $853.00 $875.00

Source: Certified Coin Exchange

[ThaiGuru]

September 9 - Gold $321 up $1.10 - Silver $4.57 up 6 cents

CRB Flying, Gold and Gold Shares Advance

Gold traded $4 higher at one point on the Comex on a medium volume trading day (estimate 26,000). Locals were caught long and dumped their positions late in the session as the cabal showed up around the $325 area and pressed gold back. Most of the damage to the gold price occurred in the last 20 minutes.

The most promising tidbit of the day was that a floor clerk told a Café source that he is hearing that "Chase" is massively short gold and will have to cover if gold goes $330 bid. Now, that is something that we have known for eons, but to hear the floor talking like this. Yum Yum!

JP Morgan Chase has been found out. Bout time! Once the hedge fund sharks get a hold of that type of input they will go after the very vulnerable Morgan. As reported last Monday, that is already the case:

Presented in Midas commentary on Monday September 2 with gold at $312.

"Word came in today that some VERY large hedge funds are on the move and taking on the bullion/central banks. They have already begun their assault at prices below today’s close and intend to add at strategic technical levels on the way up. They are going to buy at key times just like The Gold Cartel has been doing on the sell side. These big boys are looking for $385 gold before the end of September!

My source (from the Middle East) also has been told these hedge funds have inside information about an external event in September which will help them push the price of gold higher."
My source contacted me on Saturday again and passed on an update. I can’t go into some of the details (like last Monday), but I can pass on the gist of the contents. This hedge fund group were the buyers that took out $315 and are continuing to buy at key technical levels. In addition to looking for $385 gold by the end of the September, they believe gold will trade $500 by the end of THIS year. This group believes that the U.S. will go to war with Iraq, sooner rather than later.

They are also VERY bullish on the Swiss Franc and are looking for a collapse of a major bank in the U.S.

Hello Morgan?

Gold has been gapping, but not running away. These gaps to the downside may need to be filled. They are close by, so the damage should not be great if gold sets back to fill them. It has risen 5 days in a row and 9 out of the last 11.

The commodity markets are on FIRE! The CRB rose ANOTHER 3.62 points to finish out at 227.75!! GATA go with this again:

Regard one bullish CRB chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/B2

But, there is no inflation!

Then regard one fine looking gold chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

The closer we get to $330, the greater The Gold Cartel will dig in to thrust gold back. We saw that today; same drill, so predictable, plainly obvious. However, the gold technicals and fundamentals remain extraordinarily bullish. Gold will fly when the cabal is carried out on a stretcher. The good news is the stretcher-bearer is on call at the moment.

Clearly, no change in my thinking. THE investment opportunity of a lifetime is upon us.

Silver rose in uneventful trading.

Here are some bullish gold sentiment points:

*The investing public shows little interest in gold shares, even though the gold sector continues to outperform the other sectors.

*Café traffic and membership sign ups are not what they usually are when gold rallies like this.

*The Comex open interest remains very modest at 153,929 contracts, which means there is room for many tens of thousands of new positions that can be put on before the OI becomes overbought and too unwieldy.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

From bad to worse:

Wall Street, Washington Split on U.S. Deficits: Rates of Return

By Vivianne Rodrigues

New York, Sept. 9 (Bloomberg)

Wall Street and Washington are moving further apart on the outlook for government borrowing.
U.S. budget deficits will balloon to more than $200 billion next year and remain beyond 2010, according to economists at the largest bond-dealing firms surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Congressional Budget Office has projected a $145 billion deficit next year and a return to a surplus by 2006. The White House is even more sanguine, predicting a surplus by 2005.

Traders, investors, companies that need to borrow and home buyers all have a big stake in who turns out to be right. Whether there is a deficit and how big it is determines the amount of money the Treasury will have to borrow. How much the government borrows -- and is expected to borrow -- is a major influence on bond prices and interest rates.

``A lot of people, especially the ones who work with long- term rates, need to have the closest estimate they can get of where those rates are going to be in a couple of years,`` said Gemma Wright, director of market research at Barclays Capital Inc. ``Treasury prices may not be impacted in the short-run, but they will be in a couple of years,`` she said.

-END-

[ThaiGuru]

Just call it manipulation:

Sunday, 8 September, 2002, 16:32 GMT 17:32 UK

Japan considering stock boost
The Nikkei may be given a cash injection from the government

The Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi is planning to invest three trillion yen (£15bn) of public money into the country`s struggling stock market, according to reports.

Japanese news agencies reported on Sunday that the prime minister had bowed to pressure from his ruling party, who are calling for contributions to save the market from collapse.

The Japanese stock market, the Nikkei, hit a 19-year low last week.

It has sparked a number of calls for emergency steps to combat deflation….

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

From Australia’s highly sophisticated commentary "The Privateer" this weekend:

"This week, with markets swooping and diving all over the world and with the war of words over whether or not to attack Iraq growing by the day, Gold has been inexorably rising….. Technically, Gold has strengthened considerably. First, you can see on the (daily bar) chart above that Gold is right back to the line connecting its two previous 2002 highs. But the developments on the more strategic (long-term) charts are even more significant… Gold has now distributed on this chart while remaining ABOVE the $US 300 level…. The only item left is for Gold to exceed its early June highs and breach resistance at $US 330"

"Gold is performing its historical function perfectly, despite all the methods which have been implemented and refined over the years to suppress it"

"71% of Gold`s correction has now been recovered… Gold went up every day over the past week. It went up when the $US was falling. It went up when the $US was stationary. And it went up (on Friday, September 6) when the $US was also going up. It was a very good week."

"On the daily bar chart, the 10-day moving 10 average has jumped back above the 20-day moving average with the Gold price comfortably above both. On the weekly bar chart, Gold has jumped back well above its shorter-term 20 week moving average. And on the point and figure chart, Gold has rebounded from the TOP of its post April 2001 upchannel for the second time. All three charts are now solidly bullish."

"Gold has had a very good week this week, rising $US 7.60. It`s spot future close of $US 320.40 on September 6 was its highest close since June 26…. Another week like the one just finished would bring it right back to those highs."

As a reminder, Martin Pring’s monthly study suggested:

"…the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Share Index,…(a) leading indicator of the gold price may be in the process of completing a 4-year reverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is at 85 (basis monthly close) and the price objective would be approximately 150."

JB

[Tippgeber1]

@Thai Guru

Danke Dir recht herzlich. Weiter so Thai.

Dein Freund

Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

Einigen Gold Cabal Mitgliedern scheint der Goldpreisanstieg der letzten Tage nicht so recht ins Short Konzept zu passen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1173716-607…

Crown Gold is buying 70% stake in ERPM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crown Gold Recoveries is buying German entrepre- neur Claas Daun`s interest in marginal gold mining company East Rand Proprietary Mines (ERPM).
The deal, about which there has been speculation for some time, was heralded yesterday as another boost for empowerment mining company Khumo Bathong, which in February bought a 60% stake in Crown Gold Recoveries from Durban Roodepoort Deep.

Daun, who has assets worth billions of rand across a number of manufacturing businesses in SA, will get R120m for the entire shareholder loan account and his 70% stake in ERPM.

"Claas Daun put up R120m in 1999, and he is exiting in 2002 at cost. It is a big discount in favour of black economic empowerment," said Khumo Bathong CE and Crown chairman Paseka Ncholo.

ERPM was rescued from the brink of closure in 1999.

Paul Schouten, a spokesman for Daun, said yesterday that the mine`s fortunes had turned and, since mining was not one of Daun`s core businesses, he had decided to sell.

Ncholo said Khumo Bathong had been considering increasing its 30% stake in ERPM for some time, but had been discussing how best to do it.

Crown was the best vehicle

Crown acquiring stake in ERPM

because synergies already existed between the two and ERPM was "basically next door to Crown, helping us to ringfence it into one operation, taking advantage of tax losses", Ncholo said.

ERPM had inherited huge tax losses and, as a result, the company paid little tax. Crown could benefit from the joining of the two companies, Ncholo said.

After a forensic audit by Deloitte & Touche earlier this year, the previous management of ERPM was removed and the mine will now be managed by Durban Deep employees.

"For me it is the best option (bringing in Durban Deep management), giving me time to concentrate on a growth strategy for Khumo Bathong," Ncholo said.

Business Day

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mw/breaking/?show=27019

Breaking News

Petchem group’s mining profits surge

With a major performance increase year-on-year of 152%, Sasol Mining posted an operating profit of R1 340-million this year. Speaking at the group’s 2002 results presentation Sasol chief executive Pieter Cox attributed this increase to favourable selling prices, including good coal export prices.

However, he added that even excluding this, the division still would have more than doubled its operating profit as a result of the efficiencies derived from the renewable programme, which was implemented some four years ago.

Cox stated that, following the implementation of this programme, Sasol Mining has managed to reduce its mining cost per ton by 11%, equating to a cumulative reduction in operating costs of about R1-billion.

In addition, continuous miner or machine productivity has increased by 87% since the start of the renewal programme.

“It is these achievements that has resulted in Sasol Mining being shortlisted as one of the five top companies in the 2001 Global Coal Company of the Year Award, presented as part of the Financial Times Global Energy Awards in New York in December last year,” he said.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zonika Botha, Online Writer - email: [e-mail].

[kaepntnemo]

<zitat>
China Ia A Leader In Gold Producing.

10.09.2002 11:21
China is expecting to produce a record amount of gold this year. It is looking for ways to attract foreign investment into its insular and rigidly protected gold mining and exploration sector.

China`s entry to the WTO last December would accelerate the establishment of Sino-foreign ventures and allow more overseas firms to take part in mining rights auctions.

China gave foreigners a tantalising glimpse of the industry when it auctioned the rights to a small gold mine for the first time last month, paving the way for more foreign participation in the domestic industry.

Although a domestic firm won the bid, Sino-foreign joint ventures were allowed to take part.

They hope to have more foreign firms coming into our market, because they have more capital and better technology.

Foreign firms used to have to undergo a more complicated process in taking a stake in domestic firms, but since April this year, the government has made the process.

In some cases, foreign firms were even allowed to take a majority stake in such ventures, which range from prospecting to jewellery processing.

China is one of the world`s top five gold producers, and it has around 1,200 gold mining firms, but many of them are very small and inefficient.


[Neftegaz.ru]
</zitat>

[ThaiGuru]

@kaepntnemo

Heute war wohl nicht gerade unser Tag!

China dürfte uns dafür noch einiges positives zum Goldgeschehen beitragen.

Freue mich dass auch Du weiter aktiv im Goldboard bist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A42256…

Anglo to use Gold Fields stake

By: Stewart Bailey


Posted: 2002/09/10 Tue 17:40 ZE2 | © Miningweb 1997-2002


JOHANNESBURG – Anglo American said for the first time today (Tuesday) that it planned to take a more active role in South Africa`s number two gold producer Gold Fields, after increasing its stake in the company to 20.3 percent earlier this year. Anglo also owns a 54 percent stake in its associate company AngloGold, South Africa`s largest gold producer.
Tony Trahar, Anglo American`s chief executive, said the group planned to wield its influence over both South Africa`s number one and two gold producers to realise higher co-operation and a greater degree of cost-savings from their South African operational base.

Trahar, however, was careful not to discount the possibility of the group`s 20 percent stake in Gold Fields being used as a launch pad for corporate activity in future. But in customary Anglo style, details of the future plans for its Gold Fields stake were thin. "If we had any plans for Gold Fields we would not be able to announce them so I`ll pass on that one", Trahar told analysts and media.

But for the first time, he hinted that Anglo might move from its position as silent investor in Gold Fields to a more active role as its biggest single shareholder. "The stake allows us more influence in Gold Fields. I`m not saying we would hold onto it forever but it is a hard currency chip which we may turn to account in due course," said Trahar.

Anglo American said at the time it increased its stake in Gold Fields from 17 percent to 20.3 percent, that the primary motivation was a need to equity account its investment. Trahar said that below 20 percent, the Gold Fields shareholding was "neither here nor there", prompting the decision to increase the stake.

He said now, however, the group could use its influence on Gold Fields and AngloGold to realise an array of synergies between the two in South Africa. "There are operational synergies that can be unlocked between these companies…without doing anything about the ownership of the business," said Trahar.

Closer co-operation between the two has been mooted for years, but precious little has been achieved. Aside from the obvious operational benefits of using shared infrastructure at Gold Fields` Driefontein and AngloGold`s Western Deeps complex, analysts believe substantial savings could be made by ending the massive duplication of health services the two groups offer employees in the West Witwatersrand.

Trahar would not comment on how Anglo planned to leverage its influence on the two gold producers.

There also remains the question of a burgeoning portfolio of investment in the rest of the JSE gold board; Anglo holds 13 percent of Western Areas, which has a 50 percent stake in the mammoth South Deep project, a 12 percent stake in Avgold which owns the 350,000oz/year Target mine and Anglo in turn also owns a 34.9 percent share in Anglovaal Mining, which holds 56 percent of Avgold.

Analysts and fund managers alike are beginning to question what plans Anglo has for its diverse gold portfolio. The permutations for deal-making are numerous and punters are beginning to hypothesise about how Anglo will rationalise its gold holdings.

One favourite among crystal-gazers is for Anglo`s clutch of shareholdings in South Africa`s gold majors to be used to feed government`s appetite for facilitating greater access for black business into the sector. Another is that foreign groups, some with assets contiguous to AngloGold`s own operations across the globe, could conceivably be tempted into a trade of some description, giving them access to South Africa`s vast gold reserves. Then there are the perennial favourites, most notably an outright merger of Gold Fields and AngloGold, or even an outright offer for Western Areas made simultaneously with an AngloGold offer for Placer Dome`s 50 percent of South Deep. The list is endless.

[ThaiGuru]

http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2002/09/09/dail…

15:50 EDT Tuesday


Royal Gold raises $7M in stock sale

Denver-based Royal Gold Inc. (Nasdaq: RGLD) sold 500,000 shares of stock on Sept. 6 that raised $7.25 million. The shares were sold to Acqua Wellington North American Equities Fund Ltd. for $14.50 a share.

Royal Gold`s stock price closed at $14.90 on Sept. 6.

"The proceeds from this offering will be used to advance our royalty acquisition program and adds to our already strong working capital position," said Stanley Dempsey, chairman, CEO and president, in a statement.

[ThaiGuru]

Press Release
SOURCE: Atlas Mining Company (ALMI)

ATLAS MINING COMPANY REPORTS PARTNERING WITH INDUSTRIAL MINERALS DISTRIBUTOR

Osburn, Idaho September 5, 2001, Atlas Mining Company, a well established mining and resource company that has been in existence since 1924, announces that they have entered into a distribution agreement with Lintech International, Inc. of Macon, Georgia, for the purpose of marketing and distributing halloysite clay from the Dragon Mine in Juab, County, Utah. Lintech International is a well established industrial minerals distribution company that warehouses, markets and distributes various industrial minerals throughout the world. The agreement with Lintech brings Atlas qualified marketing professionals to help market and distribute the halloysite product named PHLO-SITE HP to end users. Lintech is ISO 9002 certified with a full time marketing and distribution staff of 35 employees. Atlas will be storing some of its PHLO-SITE HP product at the Lintech 30,000 square foot warehouse and office facility in Macon, Georgia. Lintech sells and distributes over $20 million of industrial products on an annual basis, and maintains seven warehouses throughout the U.S.

Atlas president, William Jacobson, stated, “after inspecting the facility in Macon, meeting the staff and Lintech president, Tom Hinson, the selection of Lintech as our distributor was easy. The Lintech philosophy of treating employees, customers and suppliers with respect and honesty is noticed throughout the organization.”



Safe Harbor Statement -- As a cautionary note to investors, certain matters discussed in this press release may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such matters involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the following: changes in economic conditions; general competitive factors; the Company`s ability to execute its business model and strategic plans; and the risks described from time to time in the Company`s SEC filings.

For further information please contact William Jacobson at 800-356-6463.

[ThaiGuru]

ATLAS MINING COMPANY
- Incorporated 1924 -
Mining, Natural Resource & Land Development



P.O. Box 968, Osburn, Idaho 83849
Telephone [phone] · Facsimile [phone]

Symbol: ALMI

September 3, 2002

MESSAGE TO OUR SHAREHOLDERS

It has been some time since you have heard from us, and we want to bring you up to date on our activities. We continue to pursue the goals we had set for the company a few years ago when your present management took over. Atlas Mining Company has a great potential as a resource company that can produce great results for the company and its shareholders. The activities and goals we have pursued lately include:

Become a fully registered company. In the fall of 2001, we moved back into the process to become fully registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This process took about eight months, during which time we were in a “Quiet Period” in which we could not put out any meaningful news without raising questions by the SEC. In July 2002, we became fully effective with our registration, and immediately reapplied for our listings on the Over the Counter Bulletin Board. We are now back up on the OTC/BB and every day we seem to get a little more trading activity in our stock.

Increase market capitalization and asset base through diversification and acquisitions. We have continued to pursue acquisitions in the resource and mining areas that will help us build a better asset base, and create a cash flow that will make the company stronger. We acquired the rights to the Dragon Mine in Juab Count, Utah, in 2001, and have since been able to verify the potential of the deposit and we have begun mine planning. All analysis on the quality of the deposit concludes that we have a very valuable and marketable product. We have employed the assistance of industrial minerals experts to move this project forward. It is our goal that we start production and sales by year-end. Our first year projections for this mine are to produce 10,000 tons of halloysite clay with a value of over $400 per ton and mining and processing cost of $200 per ton. This will bring a net value to the company of $2 million in 2003, or over $0.25 income per share of your stock. We are looking at other investments that will reflect positively on our balance sheet. With the addition of more income creating assets we feel confident that our balance sheet will grow, and this goal will be achieved.

generate gross annual contracting sales of $2 million and timber sales of $100,000.
Our contracting entity, Atlas Fausett Contracting, has been able to create some cash flow, through both mining and environmental projects. In 2001, we had approximately $650,000 in contracting revenues, however the first six months of this year we have only created $135,000. We will continue to pursue work in these areas, as we are confident of our ability to move into more profitable mining and contracting activities. The main reasons for continuing our contracting effort is because we can use these resources on our own projects when the time comes, and we are distinguishing ourselves as a company that actually knows how to mine. Our timber sales in 2001 were minimal due to the timber prices during the year. This year however we anticipate about $150,000 in revenue. We have continued to negotiate the acquisition of other properties in north Idaho with timber potential, and hope to be able to report on these in the near future.

Establish a minimum reserve of 40 million ounces. Although we have work to do in this area we do know of a number of precious metal reserves in the U.S. and Mexico that will easily bring us to this goal. One thing we have learned over the past couple of years is that we cannot try to pursue too many goals at one time. Our first goal to become fully registered consumed a lot of our efforts and resources this past several months but is now accomplished. We are now focusing these energies on bringing income producing assets into the company. This will be an ongoing goal, but as we accomplish part of this goal, by way of putting the Dragon Mine into production, we can then redirect some of our efforts toward the acquisition of reserves.

As we move into a new era for this company, that of a fully registered, and trading company, we have found we need help to continue on the correct course. We have engaged a qualified law firm to help us through the SEC maze, and we have an accounting firm that continues to provide the proper auditing and financial services we need to stay on course. We have brought in a new Investor Relations firm to help us provide the proper information to you and to the rest of the investing public. We will be making the move to the new Bulletin Board Exchange (BBX) in the near future. This move will allow us a broader market for our securities, and eliminate some of the risks with regard to OTC investing. With this team and new direction we feel our path to success will be an easy travel and our efforts will soon reward your dedication to this company.

Recently we lost a longtime board member, when Lovon Fausett died. Lovon had been a board member of Atlas Mining Company for 30 years. His dedication and support to us is missed.

We have a great deal of pride in this company and we are determined to make our goals a reality in order that the company and you, the shareholder, can benefit.


William T Jacobson



MISSION STATEMENT: The Company is in the business of pursuing mining, real estate, and any other commercial related business to promote the profitable interests of the company and its shareholders.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Dienstag 10.09.2002, MEZ 22:57

10. September 2002 20:38

Ashcroft warnt vor Anschlägen auf US-Nahost-Einrichtungen

WASHINGTON - US-Justizminister John Ashcroft hat vor neuen Selbstmordanschlägen auf US-Einrichtungen in Nahost gewarnt. Die Informationen stammen laut Ashcroft von einer Quelle innerhalb der El Kaida.
Die Bedrohung richte sich höchstwahrscheinlich auf Ziele ausserhalb der USA. US-Beamte sollten am Jahrestag der Anschläge vom 11. September wie üblich ihrer Arbeit nachgehen.

Aus Regierungskreisen war zuvor bereits verlautet, die USA gingen von einer erhöhten Gefahr neuer Anschläge aus. Von einer «erhöhten» Alarmstufe, durch die Farbe Gelb symbolisiert, wurde zur «sehr erhöhten» Alarmstufe übergegangen, die durch Orange ausgewiesen wird.
So galten auch für US-Vizepräsident Dick Cheney wieder verschärfte Sicherheitsvorkehrungen. Wie der Sprecher des Weissen Hauses, Ari Fleischer, in Washington mitteilte, verbrachte Cheney bereits die Nacht zum Dienstag an einem geheimen Ort.

Nach der US-Verfassung übernimmt der Vizepräsident die Amtsgeschäfte des Präsidenten, wenn dieser dazu nicht in der Lage ist.


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

September 10 - Gold $317.60 down $3.40 - Silver $4.55 down 2 cents

JP Morgan Chase And Friends Bash Gold

Right on cue, JP Morgan Chase bashed gold. They were the big sellers on Comex and probably instigated the early selling overseas. Gold is now almost $7 off its highs in only a day and ¼ of trading. That is what happens when the U.S. Government (ESF) and fellow cabal members decide they have had enough of gold threatening $330 and want to quiet down newfound excitement about gold investments.

Meanwhile, all we hear about from our political leaders is how wonderful America is about the way WE do things and that all the rest of the world should be just like us. God forbid. When I grew up, we were all so proud that America was "the land of the free and home of the brave." We have deteriorated so much that we are now the land of the rigged market and the home of the bully.

Tomorrow will rightfully be a day of solemn remembrance in the U.S. The individual World Trade Center stories from one year ago are heartbreaking. Most financial markets will not open until 11 and it will be a day of reflection. It should also be a day for Americans to come to grips why this happened to us and why there might be more to come. Most have no clue.

It ought to be time for Americans to begin to understand that partly as a result of our fraudulent and corrupt gold/monetary policy, 2.6 times the amount of people that died in the World Trade Center horror are dying EVERY day in sub-Saharan Africa due to disease and famine problems. EVERY DAY! Those people are too hungry or sick to contemplate. Who is weeping for them?

Newsweek ran a cover story soon after Sep. 11 with a headline that read something like, "Why Do They Hate Us?" Most Americans have no idea why such good people such as us could engender such enmity in various parts of the world. That is probably because so many Americans are going to World Wrestling Federation events (packed houses), or watching these goofy "reality" shows, which are truly inane. In some ways we have become the land of the brain dead or brainwashed. Fogdom rules the day.

Meanwhile, back at the bullion bank ranch and at certain political levels, we have implemented financial policies that are economically devastating many countries. They are callous, myopic and foolhardy. Consciously, or sub-consciously, a good number of the citizens of these impoverished nations know the real American deal when it comes to these agendas and hate us for it. This is a simplification. It is not my intent to do an essay on this subject, but these same malignant policies will soon rob Americans of their hard earn savings as our stock markets continue to erode. My countrymen will finally wake up as to what has happened and why, but for many it will be too late. They will want answers, but it will be too late. A substantial portion of their life saving will have disappeared; years of hard work will have gone for naught. Their coming ire will be the norm in our land.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has done its best for years to warn the American public what is going on, but the U.S. financial press will not allow us to be heard. Whatever happened to America’s free press? Another cherished American principle bit the dust, gone down the drain in this land of the rigged market. Ironically, I received a call this morning from Moscow from a very respected gold producer CEO. He called to tell me of a big spread in a prestigious Russian magazine that featured significant GATA coverage, naming names, etc. The web address is http://www.ruspred.ru, but it is in Russian. He was ecstatic. GATA can be heard in Moscow, but not New York or Washington.

What a revolting state of affairs!

Comex gold open interest rose sharply yesterday to the tune of 6754 contracts. Funds bought and The Gold Cartel sold. The buyers of the last 3 days are now all losers. The goal of the cabal is to turn gold down again technically and turn these new buyers into sellers. This analysis has been brought your way for 4 years now. It is always the same drill. It is boring, corrupt and sickening.

If my input is correct, Hung Fat, Dr. No and friends will be all over gold by the end of the week, or early next week, and will take on the cabal once again. The fight will be ferocious. As we all know, the defense of $330 gold by the crooked Gold Cartel is not only to save their humongous gold short positions, but also to keep Morgan’s massive interest rate derivative position from blowing up.

It is difficult for many in the investment world to even conceive that the government’s main bank could become toast. Those same folk would have said the same about LTCM and Enron years ago. LTCM, with its Nobel prize-winning economists, was the darling of the hedge fund world. Even the Central Bank of Italy invested in LTCM. Enron was regarded by the Forbes and Fortunes, etc, as a brilliantly run U.S. corporation and won a good number of their yearly awards.

Midas and Café contributors have focused on Morgan for some time now. As it goes, so goes The Gold Cartel. The good news for us is that the share price of this devious operation looks very shaky. According to CNBC, the U.S. stock market rallied today due to futures related buying. Wonder who? However, even with the Dow gaining 83, Morgan sank 44 cents, closing at $23.15. It’s market action stinks. There are some in the financial world that say if Morgan’s stock breaks $20, its survival could be at stake. If the Dow breaks hard in the coming weeks, Morgan is going to test $20 for sure. It will be "guts ball" time for their arrogant leaders.

As mentioned yesterday, this gold sell-off was to be anticipated. Now, it needs to go $320 bid to get back on track.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

India, unfortunately, was closed today for a major Hindu Festival – even the newspapers did not publish. Consequently the key question of whether there would have been a significant reaction to the abrupt slaughter of the bullion price which occurred when Asia opened this morning could not be answered today. Any short seller found their task that much easier today.

"..Today bullion banks and bullion houses started doing arbitrage trading with the spot..." Reuters’ unusually alert gold reporter in Tokyo quotes a broker as saying,

"Gold futures…surged to a new 10 week high before being cut down to size"

What this means is that gold bullion was offered in the East so cheaply that the Trade Houses found it profitable to hammer the bid on Tocom. Since lease rates moved little, the supplier would appear to be a large natural long. Tocom volume rose 29% to the equivalent of 33,072 Comex contracts, exceeding NY’s volume yesterday of 30,260. Open interest, however, only rose 178 Comex lots. NY yesterday saw an open interest surge of 6754 lots, a testimony to the power of the ultimately broken buying charge.

"Immediately after the New York open speculative and professional selling was seen…however the metal began to rally…. Gold saw good two-way business around the $323 level but one US investment bank then pushed gold lower into the close. In Asia, further bank selling triggered liquidation from the professional and speculative community, almost all of which we believe are now long."

Writes UBS Warburg, in a good summary of the action yesterday and early today. Obviously blocking a surge of such force would inevitably create a rout amongst opportunistic longs attracted in by the action of the past few days. In fact, the steadiness of the XAU and the HUI after the initial shock this morning is rather impressive. Many of the Bullion bank commentators blame "heavy fund selling"

(Mitsui London) for throwing back yesterday’s rise and continuing the rout early this morning, but is an unusual fund which has the facilities to do so much damage via the physical market in early Asian hours.

How serious the situation was yesterday was well summarized by the chartist Greg Weldon:

" on the HUI…the 52-week MA…crossed bullishly above the mega-long term 104-week MA…in late 2001…Further, both are trending higher, with the recent downside correction holding SOLID into support provided by the rising 52-week MA…this is the first time such bullish-triad presented by these key long-term indicators…in the history of this index."

"Going back over the same MA study applied to the XAU we note…the last bullish MA-triad…in early 1993, …the XAU…sold off…to 90, holding at the 52- week MA…before screaming back to new highs near 150…"

On a more mundane note, the return of India tomorrow, combined with the reaction of the Japanese public when they come back to find the yen down by almost two yen, is likely to make the task of the Shorts (or Managers) much more difficult than they expected.

JB

[keepitshort]

Floor-trading of gold-futures in New York will be
Delayed until 11:05 a.m. on Wednesday 11.Sep.
To enable trader to attend
Memorial services.

Fazit: Erst ab 17.05 Berlin-Time werden in New York
die gold-futures gehandelt.


12.Sept 02 US-President Bush will speak in front of th UN-meeting

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/09/11/rtr718518.…

RESEARCH ALERT-Morgan Stanley cuts metals, mining to "in-line"

Reuters, 09.11.02, 12:00 PM ET

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley cut its investment rating Wednesday on nonferrous metals and mining companies to "in-line" from "attractive."

Analyst Wayne Atwell, in a research note, said he reduced his aluminum price projections for 2002 through 2005 and cut his earnings-per-share estimates accordingly for Alcoa Inc. (nyse: AA - news - people), Alcan Inc (nyse: AA - news - people)<AL.TO>, Century Aluminum Co. (nasdaq: AA - news - people).

Atwell said aluminum shares have performed poorly in the past two months because of China becoming a net exporter, concern about a double-dip recession, poor commodity price performance and concern about new smelter projects.

"We favor the long-term prospects for aluminum because of modest announced capacity growth and relatively modest inventory levels, but we believe investors will need to be patient," he wrote.

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1…

11/09/2002 17:47 - (SA)

JSE ends off highs, gold weighs

Johannesburg - Stocks edged off their highs by the close on Wednesday as Anglo American pared some of its gains.

Gold stocks also chipped away at the bourse`s earlier highs. The gold price fell as investors` fears surrounding the first anniversary of the September 11 attacks subsided.

"The downside today was gold, which kept the market from running further. Also, the rand is a touch stronger, which also had an effect on resources stocks," said one dealer.

Anglo closed 3.1% or 420c higher at R138.01, off an earlier high of R141.50, as investors took profits.

Investment bank JP Morgan said on Wednesday it was upgrading its recommendation on Anglo to "buy" from "market perform", and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said it had upgraded the miner to "add" from "hold". Both cited the company`s results.

The all share index added 0.75% or 74.2 points to close at 9941.54 points, slipping from an earlier 9991.3 points.

The value of trades was R2.6bn and dealers described trade as quiet on the first anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States.

Bank stocks made solid gains as investors went hunting for bargains. Dealers said bank stocks had already factored in an interest rate hike of up to 100 basis points.

Standard Bank gained 4.3% or 130c to R31.30.

Gold stocks suffered as the price of the precious metal stepped backwards on a stronger dollar and gains in US stock markets. Spot gold was trading at US$315.20/7 a troy ounce at 17:18, from New York`s $317.90/318.40 close.

Gold Fields lost 7.3% or R10.40 to R131.60.

Platinum stocks took heart from a slightly firmer price for the white metal. Anglo American Platinum gained 4.8% or R17 to R370.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Mittwoch 11.09.2002, MEZ 19:43

Putin droht Georgien mit militärischer Gewalt

MOSKAU - Der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin hat dem Kaukasus-Nachbarland Georgien mit militärischer Gewalt gedroht. Er verlangt die Schaffung einer Sicherheitszone entlang der gemeinsamen Grenze, um die «Einfälle der Banditen» zu beenden.

Putin wolle militärische Gewalt anwenden, sollte Tiflis weiterhin die Aktivität tschetschenischer Rebellen im Grenzgebiet dulden, schreibt die russische Agentur Interfax. Dabei handle Russland im Einklang mit den Bestimmungen der UNO-Charta «zur Selbstverteidigung».

Der Generalstab der russischen Armee sei angewiesen worden, Pläne für entsprechende Angriffe gegen Lager tschetschenischer Rebellen vorzubereiten, sagte Putin in seinem Urlaubsort Sotschi am Schwarzen Meer.
«Es wird nichts geschehen, keine Spezialeinsätze werden nötig sein, falls die georgische Führung ihr eigenes Territorium richtig kontrolliert,» wurde Putin von Interfax zitiert.

Georgien müsse seine internationalen Verpflichtungen im Kampf gegen den internationalen Terrorismus erfüllen und dementsprechend mögliche Angriffe internationaler Terroristen von seinem Gebiet aus gegen Russland verhindern, sagte Putin weiter.

Russland hatte Georgien in den vergangenen Wochen mehrmals aufgefordert, die im Pankisi-Tal lebenden Flüchtlinge aus der benachbarten russischen Teilrepublik Tschetschenien besser unter Kontrolle zu halten. 111859 sep


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp…

Gold futures, metals issues decline

By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:42 PM ET Sep 11, 2002

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures prices eased Wednesday to trade around the same level they were at a week ago, pulling shares of key metals indexes lower after a delayed opening on the New York Stock Exchange.

Trading of metals stocks on the New York Stock Exchange was delayed until noon following the end of special events marking the anniversary of last year`s terrorist attacks.

In recent action, gold for December delivery fell by $2.30 to stand at $317.10 an ounce on the Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A week ago, the contract closed at $316.50.

"The risk for more selling is real and could send gold lower, but we expect physical buying and profit taking to prevent any price collapse," said Frederic Panizzutti, an analyst at GoldAvenue, a major gold online trading company.

Panizzutti expects gold to trade in the $312 to $318 an ounce range in the next few days.

On Tuesday, "gold attracted some reasonable buying flows on ongoing concerns about the conflict escalation between the U.S. and Iraq but also on renewed terrorist fears around Sept. 11," he said.

For now though, "the U.S. dollar and stock market could again become dominant factors for the gold price in the absence of any other news."

Among other metals traded on Comex, October platinum fell $1.10 to stand at $548 an ounce and December palladium added $1 to stand at $331 an ounce.

December silver followed gold lower, falling by 2.3 cents to stand at $4.555 an ounce. December copper slipped 0.2 cent to 70.7 cents a pound.

Comex copper stocks as of late Tuesday were up 381 short tons at 375,989. Gold inventories stood at 1.91 million ounces, down 1,768 ounces from the previous trading day. An update on silver inventories was unavailable on Nymex. As of late Monday, silver supplies stood at 108.62 million ounces.

Most metals shares slip

Shares of metals producers traded mostly lower for a second-straight day on the heels of gold`s price weakness. Key indexes for the sector declined by 5 percent on Tuesday.

The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index ($XAU: news, board) eased 0.9 percent to 71.32, the CBOE Gold Index ($GOX: news, board) shed 1.1 percent to 57.76 and the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, board) retraced by 1.7 percent to 129.26.

Among gold producers, shares of Newmont Mining (NEM: news, board) fell 14 cents to stand at $28.32 and Placer Dome Gold (PDG: news, board) declined 2 cents to $10.08.

Barrick Gold (ABX: news, board) shed 4 cents to $16.48 and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI: news, board) retreated 31 cents to $12.89, while Harmony Gold (HGMCY: news, board) gave back 42 cents to $15.68 and Goldcorp (GG: news, board) fell 19 cents to $10.96.

Stillwater Mining (SWC: news, board), a major palladium and platinum producer, tacked on 15 cents to $6.90.


Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Mittwoch 11.09.2002, MEZ 22:36

Briefe mit weissem Pulver in acht US-Vertretungen in Europa

WASHINGTON/LUXEMBURG - Bei acht diplomatischen Vertretungen der USA in Europa sind am Jahrestag der Anschläge vom 11. September Briefe mit verdächtigem weissen Pulver eingegangen.
Neben den US-Botschaften in Italien, Dänemark und Luxemburg hätten auch die US-Konsulate in Leipzig, München, Hamburg, Frankfurt und Düsseldorf derartige Briefe erhalten, verlautete aus dem US-Aussenministerium in Washington.

Eine erste Analyse des Pulvers in Luxemburg ergab nach Angaben der dortigen US-Botschaft, dass es sich bei dem Pulver um keine «gefährliche Substanz» wie den befürchteten Milzbranderreger handelte. Genauere Untersuchungen seien jedoch noch im Gange. Auch die Briefe in den anderen Städten würden noch untersucht, hiess es weiter.
Die Briefe seien alle auf dem normalen Postweg in die diplomatischen Vertretungen gelangt und dort von Botschaftsmitarbeitern geöffnet worden. Es war zunächst nicht bekannt, ob die Briefe Drohungen oder Warnungen enthielten.

Die betroffenen Konsulate blieben laut Aussenamt geöffnet. Lediglich die Bereiche, in denen die verdächtigen Briefe entdeckt worden waren, wurden für Ermittlungen gesperrt.
Im Oktober und November vergangenen Jahres waren durch die Versendung mehrerer Milzbrand-Briefe in den USA fünf Menschen gestorben. 112220 sep


SDA-ATS

[keepitshort]

Quelle: http://www.spiegel.de

Export in tausend Barrel pro Tag
Norwegen 2888
Irak 1512
soviel liefert der Irak nun auch wieder nicht
wenn dann nur kurzfristiger Anstieg vom Rohölpreis
vielleicht auf 6 Monate gesehen.

Aber wenn der Irak unter US-Protektorat kommt
wird viel und billiges Rohöl aus irakischen Quellen fliessen.
Dann dürften die Inflationsraten niedrig bleiben
und das ist ungünstig für den Goldpreis.

[ThaiGuru]

September 11 - Gold $316.40 down $1.40 - Silver $4.54 down 1 cent

Morgan (S) Takes on Morgan (C) / "Cabal Hits New Low"

This email this morning says it all:

"Cabal hits new low

Dumping gold while the victims of 9/11 names are being read. I`m disgusted with these low-lives"

Sure enough, The Gold Cartel struck again when most gold players had their mind on the 9/11 ceremonies. They took gold all the way down to $314.40 before the late Comex opening. Right after that opening, gold rallied a tad when JP Morgan Chase blasted gold right back down to the $314.40 area again. That is when Morgan Stanley stepped up to the plate as a big buyer.

I consider that to be significant as they were the strong-hand buyer that took gold through $315 last week. As you know from previous Midas commentaries, a hedge fund buying group is in the market to buy $2 billion worth of gold. Their first tranche was acquired below the $310 level. We also know this group took out $315 last time, so it is a pretty good bet they are trading through Morgan Stanley. That is total supposition on my part.

Yet, it all fits. Today’s strong bounce and close above $315 suggests strong hand buying going right after Chase and the cabal. This hedge fund group certainly would have wanted to defend $315, where they did their second tranche of buying, and it appears they did.

Gold must now go $320 bid and close above that level to get back on the bullish track. If it does so in the next few days, it would suggest The Gold Cartel is on its last legs. Some bullish gold points:

*In Tuesday’s Midas, I noted: "Gold has been gapping, but not running away. These gaps to the downside may need to be filled. They are close by, so the damage should not be great if gold sets back to fill them. It has risen 5 days in a row and 9 out of the last 11."

Those downside gaps have now been filled. Now, the gaps to be filled are back up on the upside.

*The gold cycle rallies after Gold Cartel bashings are coming in shorter and shorter durations of time as the months go by. What used to take many months, even a year, is now taking weeks. Will that become days?

*The Gold Cartel continues to show their weak hand by selling when few traders are around. They graduated from the Kangaroo trading hours in pre-Sydney trading to a time of great solemnity in America. Their desperation grows and shows. The sharks in the trading world have to see what Midas sees. That bodes poorly for the crooked cabal.

*Gold dropped $10 from its highs in 2 ¼ trading sessions, yet not one reason cited for its rise in the first place has changed. War tensions are still on the rise as are commodity prices. While the CRB was a tad lower, soybeans, corn and oil all rose again.

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty gold premiums: AM $0.77, PM $1.83, with world gold at $317.00 and $317.30. Below, and more or less at, legal import point. A subdued response. The rupee has started rising again. JPMorgan Chase in India is reported by Reuters as saying "The probability of US aggression against Iraq has risen dramatically in recent weeks..": one wonders if this turn of phrase was approved in NY!

Tocom did respond to the slide of the yen yesterday in what Reuters describes as "sullen trade"; "Tocom related flows led the market today" says Mitsui HK;

"TOCOM…had bullish performance." (Nihon Unicom). But plainly traders were intimidated by the violence of the gold bears in the previous 36 hours: volume dropped 47% to only 17,569 Comex equivalent, and although the active contract edged 4 yen, open interest only rose 511 Comex lots, and $US gold softened almost $2. (NY yesterday saw open interest rise 487 lots on 26,109 contracts of volume.)

There is a good deal to be intimidated about. UBS Warburg points out that blocking yesterday’s rally attempts took considerable determination:

"In New York, speculators were seen as buyers after the opening bell with the trade selling into this interest. One US bank continued to work a large buying programme and tried to lift gold higher at one point by bidding for 1000 lots but professional selling by two banks prevented any rally. In Asia, Tocom related selling and further trade long liquidation saw gold weaken with reasonable Asian physical demand providing support above $316."

Willing to fade a 1000 lot bid! Inveterate Bear Sogen has deployed a research essay with some useful historical data intended to rally their fraternity in the event of military action. See http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/socgen/pmw0909.pdf .

However, it lets fall a crucially revealing remark:

"The gold leasing market is still amazingly liquid. The week was dominated by central banks affecting the long end of the curve (2-5 years), as the 5-year rate hit a low to trade at 1.60%. Short rates remain weak, at 0% until 3 months."

Rueful Bulls will feel a pang in the "LTCM-crisis-Why-were-gold-lease-rates-the only-short-credit-market-not-to-be-traumatized?" scar. Indeed most of the discussions, like Sogen’s, summoning memories of the Gulf War gold price fizzle are more than usually lacking in intellectual integrity. That event was the first, and for quite a while the only, situation in which heavy Central Bank action was suspected. As someone said, "If not now, when?" This fact needs to be considered, if only to be dismissed.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The U.S. stock market looks like a disaster waiting to happen. The economic news stinks:

U.S. Economy: Fed Survey Finds Slowing `in Recent Weeks`
By Brendan Murray, Craig Torres and Simon Kennedy

Washington, Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy slowed in the past six weeks, limited by ``sluggish`` factory production and little or no gains in employment, the Federal Reserve said.

While increases in auto and home sales supported the recovery, manufacturers are less optimistic than they were earlier this year and companies aren`t adding workers, the Fed said in its latest regional economic report card, known as the beige book.

The report ``mirrors a lot of the themes we have seen in the economic news lately that growth is uneven,`` said James Glassman, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York.

The Fed`s regional economic report card suggests the central bank may keep its target for overnight lending between banks at a 41-year low until growth accelerates. The Fed`s policy-setting Open Market Committee meets Sept. 24 to decide whether to change the benchmark U.S. interest rate from 1.75 percent.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies on the economy tomorrow with the House Budget Committee. Two Fed policy makers -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Michael Moskow and Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Cathy Minehan -- in separate speeches Monday said the recovery will be ``bumpy.``

``Most of the Fed people have suggested they are going to be pretty patient, and I assume Mr. Greenspan`s comments tomorrow will be the same,`` Glassman said.

The beige book was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using information gathered after the third week in July and before Sept. 3. The report -- a collection of anecdotes reported to the regional Fed banks from local businesses -- gives central bankers an idea of economic developments beyond what statistics show…..

The Fed`s comments run counter to Labor Department statistics showing the unemployment rate fell to a five-month low of 5.7 percent in August from 5.9 percent in July. Companies and the government added workers for a fourth month.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/12/eng20020912_1030…

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, September 12, 2002

Shanghai Becoming China`s Gold Trading Center
The sixth RNA China Gold and Precious Metals Conference held in Shanghai reinforced the claim that the eastern metropolis is becoming the country`s gold tradingcenter.

The sixth RNA China Gold and Precious Metals Conference held in Shanghai reinforced the claim that the eastern metropolis is becoming the country`s gold tradingcenter.

Another evident sign to justify Shanghai`s claim is the establishment of China`s first gold exchange in the city, industrial sources said Wednesday.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange has to date solicited 108 members, including production, processing and distribution enterprises.

Exchange officials say its location in Shanghai is closely related to the city`s status as China`s financial center and its prospects as a future international financial hub.

The most modern city in China, Shanghai boasts an inter-bank market for bonds and local and foreign currencies, exchanges for silver, diamonds and futures, and one of China`s two stock exchanges. Funds flow in and out of the city every day, which ensures an easy access to settlement service and fundraising for gold transactions.

Shanghai, one of the largest gold consumers in China, registers more than two billion yuan (241 million US dollars) in sales of gold and jewelry annually.

[ThaiGuru]

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/12/eng20020912_1030…

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, September 12, 2002

China`s Silver Market Shining after Opening-up
China has become an important market in the world for the consumption of the precious metal of silver since its deregulation.

China has become an important market in the world for the consumption of the precious metal of silver since its deregulation.

Paul Bateman, executive director of the Silver Institute, made the remarks at the first Annual China Silver Conference held recently in this capital city of north China`s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Before market liberalization in January 2000, silver was treated in China as a kind of special commodity, and its trade wasunder the strict, unified control of the People`s Bank of China, the country`s central bank. In the 1990s, the metal began to be used mainly for industrial purposes as its function as a currency weakened.

That`s all changed now. Zhou Juqiu, deputy director of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, quoted statistics as saying that annual silver consumption now stands at around 1,000 tons in China.

Zhou said that after the opening of the silver market in China,demand from the electrics and electronics, chemical reagent and chemical materials sectors increased greatly, while the consumption of silver in manufacturing photo-sensitive materials and silver wares grew moderately. The Chinese people have traditionally loved silver jewelry and wares but have long had to use aluminum and other silver-gilded articles as substitutes. So with an eye particularly on the jewelry sector, Paul Bateman came to China in February to make researches on the great market potential and project cooperation possibilities.

Bateman is also optimistic about silver consumption in the photo-sensitive materials sector. As the third largest photo market of the world, China scores an average per-capita film consumption of only 0.1 roll, in comparison with the 3.6-roll level in developed nations.

The China Photo-Sensitive Association and the Lucky Group, a major film producer in the country, predict silver consumption for photo sensitive materials will "!!!!grow!!!!" (Zunahme!-Kein Rückgang!) at an average annual rate of about "8 percent in the 2002-2005 period". This year a total of 170 tons of silver will be used to produce color film and photo paper in China.

Attention is also paid to the electrics and electronics industry, which claims a majority 30-percent share of China`s total consumption of the precious metal.

Wang Yingshan, president of Huatong Nonferrous Metal Trading Center Wholesale Market, forecast that the silver used for this sector will hit 700-800 tons this year, up from the 600 tons in 2000, and the figure will increase further to 1,000 tons in 2005, with an annual growth rate of 10 percent on average.

Nochmals für die Unwissenden, Ignoranten, Besserwisser, und Silber Pessimisten etc.:

Der Verbrauch von Silber durch die Industrie steigt stetig an, und nimmt nicht etwa ab, wie von interessierter Seite immer wieder verbreitet wird!!!! Nicht nur in China !!!! TG[/k]

The first Annual China Silver Conference was jointly sponsored by the Silver Institute, China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association and the municipal government of Hohhot, with the aim of creating an opportunity for silver enterprises from all over the world to exchange information and strengthen cooperation.

[ThaiGuru]

Dass Silber in der Natur nur 7x häufiger vorkommt als Gold, wissen ja die meisten Leser schon.

Warum Silber aber 70x weniger als Gold kostet, obwohl bereits schon 11 Jahre hintereinander weltweit weniger Silber gefördert wird, als weltweit verbraucht wird, und dass die meisten reinen Silberminen bei diesen Tiefstpreisen, wegen unrentabilität, oder Konkurs, bereits stillgelegt wurden, wissen leider immer noch viel zu wenige Leute.

Die heutigen Silberpreise sind ganz einfach gesagt ein Ergebnis von jahrelanger Preis-Manipulation.

1978 kostete ein KG Silber in der Schweiz 2900.- CHF
2002 gerade mal noch 220.- CHF

1978 Verfügte die USA ca. 720 Millionen Unzen strategische Silbervorräte!

2002 Verfügen die USA über keine strategischen Silbervorräte mehr. Sie sind aufgebraucht.

2002/3 wird die USA zu ersten mal seit ca. 45 Jahren wieder Silber kaufen müssen, wurde letzten Monaten von W. Busch abgesegnet, damit die USA wenigstens ihre jährlichen Silberdollar prägen kann.

Dass vom Gold/Silber Kartell, auf dem Papier bereits im absoluten Minimum über 4 ganze Jahres-Weltproduktionen an Silber, das noch gar nicht gefördert wurde, bereits verkauft wurde, muss ich für die informierten Lesern in diesem Thread wohl auch nicht mehr extra erwähnen.

Diejenigen die es noch nicht gewusst haben, aber sollten was draus machen, den wenn dieser Silber Preis Manipulations Skandal platzt, ist es vermutlich zu spät um darauf reagieren zu können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Insiderin007]

Hallo Thaiguru !
Eine Frage zu Deinem letzten Silberposting:
Weißt Du, ob es für den normalen Privat(ver)käufer seinerzeit, als das Kilo Silber bei 2900 Franken stand, einen funtkionierenden Markt gab, soll heißen entsprechende Umsätze bzw. Nachfrage zu diesem Preis. Oder noch deutlicher: Haben die Banken und Privatkäufer zu diesem Preis Silber physisch gehandelt. Oder waren das nur eher theoretische Kurse, zu denen der Kleinanleger (zumindest bei den Banken) seine unter dem Sofa gebunkerten Barren gar nicht wirklich loswurde ?
Insiderin007

[tamara93]

Solch einen parallelen Verlauf hat man selten:

[kaepntnemo]

hi,
als Ergaenzung zu den silberbemerkungen von thaiguru #1855,56 hier noch mal ein hinweis auf die artikelserie von charles savoie (und natuerlich die von ted butler).
http://www.silver-investor.com/CFTC.htm
Den Stil von charles muss man zwar nicht unbedingt moegen (wenn ich auch seine gedichte immer sehr lustig finde ), aber die sachinformationen gerade zu den personalverflechtunegn und zum cui bono sind interessant und nachpruefbar.

OK, ich gebe zu, ich bin auch bullish for silver (und nicht so pessimistisch wie xnickel...)

-nemo-

[ThaiGuru]

@tamara93

Ein unglaublicher Zufall ???

Oder hat da ein verantwortlicher bei JP-Morgen etwa vergessen im automatischen Computer Papiergold Verkaufsprogramm die auslösenden Limits zu verändern?

Mit 320.-$ Schlusskurs in den USA, es leider heute nichts geworden.

Morgen ist ja auch noch ein Tag dieses Ziel zu erreichen.
Es wird ganz sicher hart darum gekämpft, respektive vom Gold Cabal dagegen gehalten werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Insiderin007

Soweit ich mich aus dem Stand erinnern mag, war dieser von mir genannte Silberpreis von 2900.- CHF, der absolute Höchstpreis, und wurde nur an 1 Tag erreicht.

Was ich mich aber ganz genau zu erinnern vermag, war dass sehr wohl, sehr hohe Umsätze in physischem Silber statt gefunden haben, bei Preisen über 2000.- CHF pro KG Silber.

Auch habe ich im Auftrag einer Münzhandelsgesellschaft, von Privat CH-Münzen, damals gab es noch viele Silber Münzen, die paralell mit den neueren Silberlosen Münzen im Umlauf befanden, aufgekauft. Speziell die 0.50, 1.-, und 2.- CH-Franken Münzen hatten einen hohen Silberanteil. Diese Münzen wurden damals fast überall zu einem Mehrfachen des Nominalwertes aufgekauft, und von den Händlern täglich tonnenweise mit riesigem Gewinn, zum Einschmelzen eingeliefert. Heute ist diese Silberquelle fast versiegt.

Trotzdem gibt es auch heute noch diese alten, (echten), Geldmünzen ganz vereinzelt im Umlauf, bei Münz-Händlern, oder auf Münzbörsen anzutreffen. Obwohl diese Münzen im Umlauf ausser Kurs gesetzt wurden, werden diese Silber "Fränkli" immer noch sehr gerne akzeptiert. Die Schweizerische Nationalbank tauscht sie meines Wissens, immer noch zum nominal Wert ein.

Der reine Schmelzwert, des sich in einem 2.- Franken Stück enthaltenen Silbers, beträgt beim heutigen Silberpreis etwa 1.80 Franken. 1978 wurde von den Händlern, in der Spitze, bis zu 20.- Franken netto für ein 2 Frankenstück gelöst. Bezahlt an die privaten Einlieferer wurde damals maximal 10.- Franken. Die Ankaufskurse wurden von den ankaufenden Münzhändlern täglich neu festgelegt.

Falls jemand die alten Silber Münzen zum Nominal-Wert irgenwo kaufen kann, sollte man sofort zugreifen, da solange die SNB diese zum nominalwert weiterhin eintauscht, man überhaupt kein Verlust Risiko eingeht, selbst falls der Silberpreis weiter "gefällt" würde. Steigen aber die Silberpreise, wovon ich stark ausgehe, kann man diese Silbermünzen einschmelzen lassen, und profitiert vom Mehrwert. Eine Silberinvestition mit "gratis" Risikoversicherung. Nur, einige Kilos Silber CH-Münzen sollten es dann schon sein, damit sich die Einschmelzerei auch rechnet. Gratis wird das nicht gemacht.

Und nochmals Achtung!

Die heutigen sich im Umlauf befindlichen CH-Münzen, haben seit 1968 keinen Silberanteil mehr.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Diese Meldung, vorgefundem im USA Goldboard, sollte dem Goldpreis auch etwas Unterstützung geben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

Black Blade (9/12/02; 06:57:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 84908)

Current Account Gap Hits New Record

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The deficit in the U.S. current account -- the broadest measure of trade with foreign countries -- expanded sharply to a new record in the second three months of the year, the government said on Thursday, as the recovering economy sucked in imports. The second quarter current account gap grew 15.6 percent to $129.96 billion, up from $112.45 billion during the first three months of the year.

The number far exceeded analysts` expectations of a $123.84 billion deficit. The trade deficit on investment income grew a whopping 564.5 percent to a record $6.29 billion from just $950 million the previous quarter. The overall deficit reflected a widening in the goods and services balance to a record deficit of $110.61 billion.

[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News

09/12 11:43

Bush Readies Attack While Investors Ready Portfolios

By Emma Moody


New York, Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush spent the morning trying to persuade the world to support him in an attack on Iraq.

Investors are way ahead of him. Anticipating a strike, and a war that by one estimate might cost the U.S. as much as $80 billion, investors have been buying two-year U.S. Treasury notes, stocking up on gold, purchasing Swiss francs and piling into oil.

An actual assault is likely to propel those prices higher, as money managers seek havens, some investors said. The U.S. dollar, down 10 percent against the euro this year, may drop a further 7 percent, they said.

``Bush will get his desired outcome one way or another,`` said Vic Thompson, who oversees assets of $280 billion as director of global fixed-income at State Street Global Advisors in Boston. State Street managers bought interest-rate futures to shield their portfolios in case rates drop, Thompson said.

In an address to the United Nations` General Assembly, Bush urged world leaders to force Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to get rid of his weapons of mass destruction and said the U.S. wants to work with the UN though can act alone if necessary.

``If Iraq`s regime defies us again, the world must move decisively to hold Iraq to account,`` he said.

Footing The Bill

Investors are betting the U.S. will move -- with or without the support of the rest of the world -- within the next few months. Either way, the U.S. may fund the bulk of the expense, which likely will spiral beyond $50 billion and as high as $80 billion, said Ivan Eland, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institution, a Libertarian think tank in Washington.

The increased spending would spell bigger budget deficits and put a damper on purchases by consumers and businesses that would weigh on the economy, some investors said.

The 1991 Gulf War cost $80 billion in current dollars, $60 billion at the time. Saudi Arabia, Japan and other U.S. allies reimbursed the country for about 80 percent of the costs, Eland said.

``We`re going to be pretty much on our own in this battle,`` said Paresh Upadhyaya, a currency analyst in Boston at Putnam Investments, which manages $67 billion of international assets. Putnam holds a smaller proportion of dollars than indexes it follows. The Swiss franc and euro would rise after a U.S. military strike against Iraq, Upadhyaya said.

The war`s price tag would help keep the budget in deficit, said Ethan Harris, co-chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Lehman projects a deficit of $165 billion in 2002 and $170 billion in 2003, before any war costs.

Dollar

The dollar reached a six-week low of 99.88 cents per euro last week as concern mounted about military action. While the currency gained ground this week as worries of a repeat terrorist attack eased, increased tension may send the dollar to at least $1.04 per euro, some investors said.

The U.S. currency, recently trading at about 120.50 yen, may fall as low as 115 yen, some investors said. They said the Swiss franc may be the biggest beneficiary of a search for safety, rising to 1.38 francs per dollar from about 1.50 francs.

``Everything hinges on the Iraq situation,`` said Kazuyuki Takigawa, who helps oversee about 100 billion yen ($832 million) in foreign-currency denominated debt at Fuji Investment Management Co. in Tokyo.

Twelve years ago, the dollar fell 15 percent against the yen in the 10 weeks after Iraq invaded Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990. It rallied before declining a further 7 percent in January after U.S. air attacks started.

Gold and Oil

Gold rose $1.10 to $319.20 an ounce at 11:40 a.m. in New York after Bush spoke. The active futures contract surged to a six-week high last week of $322.80 an ounce as expectations of military action heightened and may reach $360 -- the highest since February 1997, some analysts said. A prolonged engagement might send gold to more than $400 an ounce, they said.

In 1990, gold surged 11 percent to a peak of $415.5 an ounce after Iraqi troops invaded Kuwait.

Crude oil, now near 11 month highs at just under $30 a barrel, would probably rise further on concern about supplies from the region, which exports about a third of the world`s oil. Crude oil for October delivery fell 97 cents to $28.80 a barrel at 11:40 a.m. on expectations an assault may be delayed as Bush works with the rest of the world to disarm Iraq.

``The first reaction to an attack will be to the upside because the uncertainty about supply will be foremost in people`s minds,`` said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus. Oil might rise to about $35 a barrel, he said.

Oil almost doubled to $41.15 a barrel between August and mid- October 1990.

Judging by the experience during the Gulf War, price increases may be short-lived, some investors said. Oil and gold retraced all their gains by February 1991, just weeks after the U.S. began its military campaign.

Treasuries

The U.S. two-year Treasury note, which has returned 5.1 percent this year including reinvested interest, would likely extend its gains following an attack. The gap between the yields on the two-year and 10-year notes may widen as money managers buy the less-risky, shorter-term securities, they said.

The yield on the two-year note gained after Bush spoke and after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said an economic recovery faces ``very significant challenges.`` The note fall to 2.09 percent at 11:40 a.m. in New York and may fall to at least 2 percent, traders said. The 10-year note, more sensitive to expectations of accelerating inflation, may not benefit as much. Its yield may trade close to its current 3.99 percent level, widening the gap between the two securities to at least 2 percentage points.

The yield gap widened 36.8 basis points to 80.8 basis points in the three days after Iraq invaded Kuwait. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. By the time the U.S. attacked Iraq, that gap had increased to more than 1 percentage point.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid…

Donnerstag 12.09.2002, MEZ 22:41

Noch ist nichts entschieden



Es ist gut möglich, dass beide Vorlagen abgelehnt werden - dann beginnt der Streit ums Gold erneut. (Keystone)


Die dritte Umfrage zur Verwendung der Goldreserven der Nationalbank zeigt: Die Goldinitiative liegt weiterhin zurück, doch auch beim Gegenvorschlag ist die Zustimmung alles andere als sicher.

Die Volksabstimmung findet am 22. September statt.

[ThaiGuru]

September 12 - Gold $318.70 up $2.30 - Silver $4.58 up 4 cents

The Gold Battle Rages On

The battle rages on between the free market buying gold forces and the corrupt Gold Cartel that is literally fighting for its survival. I learned early this morning that the hedge fund group I keep referring to bought 20 tonnes of gold yesterday through a major European bank. That is a HUGE amount of gold for one hedge fund to purchase in a single day. As I suspected, they were the big buyer that took gold right back up through the critical $315 support area and $2 off its U.S. lows. They also were buyers again today with a goal of taking gold above $318. They won their second battle against the crooked cabal in two days.

As stated here for a couple of weeks now, formidable gold buyers have emerged to take on the vulnerable bullion banks that have overstayed their massively short hand. These powerful buyers know what GATA knows and they are determined to be the ones to take the cabal out on "the proverbial stretcher."

It gets better, I think. From what I am told, Morgan Stanley was not the buyer for this big hedge fund group, which means there is another big buyer out there in addition to the one I keep mentioning. That is why the gold price is coming right back at The Gold Cartel after their gold bashings. They are not getting much bang for their buck because the buying forces against them keep growing in number and in size.

The Gold Cartel defended key $320 with a vengeance as that was the high during the U.S. trading session. If $320 is taken out, gold should quickly move back up to $325 and make a run for $330. If gold breaks $330, it should explode with $400 as the next stop.

How lovely to see the share price of JP Morgan Chase stink up the place again. As predicted by Midas, it fell sharply as soon as soon as the Dow was hit hard. Morgan closed at $22.01, down 97 cents. Morgan acts like a $20 share price has become a magnet and is being inexorably drawn to that crucial price level. My bet remains the same. Morgan won’t make it through the end of the year. It will go down, merge, or be taken over – perhaps by Uncle Sam. They are a derivative disaster waiting to happen.

Morgan, Morgan, Morgan!!!!!!!!! Sorry, but after seeing the misery they have caused to so many people all over the world, I will not be a hypocrite on this one. I would like nothing better than to see them bite the dust. If they go down, so many people in Africa will have a chance to live.

Midas has sent reports your way that is has become difficult for many retail buyers to buy gold in Singapore and Hong Kong. Last week Richard Russell reported HSBC would not sell his client any gold. Now this and the reason why:

Thursday September 12, 1:56 PM

HSBC Hldgs exits gold trading in Hong Kong

HONG KONG, Sept 12 (Reuters) - HSBC Metals Ltd, a subsidiary of HSBC Holdings Plc , will disband its gold trading division in Hong Kong in the coming month, a senior executive said on Thursday. "The bank has decided to exit gold trading in Hong Kong," said C.M. Lok, first vice president and head of bullion trading for the bank in the territory.

The decision was made in New York, Lok said, adding he could not give the reasons for the move. "I was given the notice last month and I am here to wind down the business and clear up everything," Lok said. The division should be closed by the end of the month. HSBC acquired its worldwide bullion trading operations when it bought New York-based Republic Bank in 1999. About 18 months ago, the bank moved its spot gold trader to its Sydney office to compliment the team there, which is engaged in providing financing and hedging strategies for gold producers in Australia.

HSBC Metals also lost its gold trading unit in Singapore in early 2001, when the entire team switched to Standard London Bank, which then opened an office in Singapore. HSBC did not try to restaff its Singapore office.

"I think one of the main reasons that they closed Singapore is that the Far East market is too small for them and China is one big market so they wanted to concentrate there," said a Singapore trader familiar with the bank. Several banks will gain from HSBC`s departure, in particular Standard London Asia in Hong Kong. The two banks have served a mutual client base around Asia, Lok said.
Physical gold trading in the Far East has become a competitive business with very thin margins, traders said. Banks and precious metal traders, such as Scotia Mocatta and Standard London, have been aggressive in securing marketshare around the region, they said.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The U.S. stock market action is dreadful. The DOW closed at 8379, down 202, while the DOG tanked to 1279, now close to 36 points. The crucial banking index was particularly weak finishing the day off around 25 points, while the bellwether SOX Index is a nudge a way from closing in new low ground. It finished the day in the low 280’s.

This can only be very gold friendly news:

New York, Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro and yen as a government report showed the U.S. current account deficit widened to a record $130 billion in the second quarter, draining money from the world`s biggest economy.

Demand for dollars fell after President George W. Bush indicated to the United Nations that the U.S. would oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein should the UN fail to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. Some traders say a U.S. attack without UN support may slow the foreign investment in the country that has in part offset the money lost from the current account gap.

``The irrefutable arithmetic is that we are losing $2 billion a day`` from the current account, said Bob Kowit, who manages $1 billion of international bonds at Pittsburgh-based Federated Investors. ``Unless that is offset by inflows of an equal amount, the dollar will weaken.``


How can we have an economic recovery with the labor picture deteriorating?

Washington, Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in almost five months, indicating the economy`s sluggish recovery is prompting companies to fire workers.

States received 426,000 initial applications in the week that ended Saturday, up from 407,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said. The rise was the fourth in the last five weeks, and the level was the highest since April 20, when claims totaled 427,000.

``The economy has weakened, and may be beginning to weaken some more,`` said Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. The rise in claims ``is showing signs that the labor market may be softening again despite the drop in unemployment. This will not change Fed policy because rates are already low and they told us that.``

A sign of the times to come:

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The underfunded pension obligations to 11,000 former employees of bankrupt instant photography giant Polaroid Corp. have been assumed by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the federal agency said on Thursday.



Will JP Morgan Chase be next?

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Also doch!! Nun wird es auch endlich von offizieller Seite, und der Presse eingestanden, die Schweiz steht mitten in einer Rezession! Und es läuft schon "beschissen" noch bevor ein eventueller Krieg der USA, seine destruktiven Kräfte auf die CH Wirtschaft einfliessen zu lassen.

Bis vor kurzem, wurden die Schweizer anscheinend angelogen. Von Wegen es gäbe keine Kriese und Rezession in der Schweiz.


Auch auf die Gefahr hin, dass mich einige für verrückt erklären werden. Es ist meiner Ansicht nach, selbst für eine Schweiz nicht auszuschliessen, vielleicht in 4 bis 5 Jahren, vor noch grösseren Problemen als in den USA zu stehen. Wenn heute vom Staat und den Gemeinden indirekt gefordert wird noch mehr Schulden zu machen, zeut das auch nicht gerade davon, dass die Probleme erkannt wurden.
Der schweizer Aktienmarkt, wird noch viele teure Federn lassen müssen, und ich befürchte, dass die Schweiz eines Tages bitter bereuen muss, sich von einem Grossteil ihrer Goldreserven verabschiedet zu haben.

Physisches Gold und Silber, strong buy!!!

Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=160

Freitag 13.09.2002, MEZ 08:09

Schweizer Wirtschaft wächst kaum



Im Industriesektor herrscht ohne Zweifel Rezession. (Keystone)

Die Lage der Schweizer Wirtschaft ist schlechter als bisher angenommen und steckt zumindest im Industriesektor in einer deutlichen Rezession.

Die Regierung gibt Arbeitsbeschaffungs-Reserven frei. Die Gewerkschaften fordern ein Stopp der staatlichen Sparprogramme.

Das Staatssekretariat für Wirtschaft (Seco) revidierte die Zahlen des Brutto-Inland-Produkts (BIP) am Donnerstag weiter nach unten.

Die jüngsten Quartalsschätzungen zum BIP zeigen, dass die Schweizer Wirtschaft seit März 2001 während vier Quartalen geschrumpft ist und im zweiten Quartal dieses Jahres um minime 0,4 Prozent gewachsen ist.

Stagnation, gar Rezession

Nach gängiger Definition ist die Schweiz damit 2001 in die Rezession zurückgefallen. Seco-Chefökonom Aymo Brunetti wollte vor den Medien aber nicht von einer generellen Rezession sprechen, sondern bezeichnete die Lage als eindeutige Stagnation. Denn das Bild sei gemischt.

Im Industriesektor müsse ohne Zweifel von einer Rezession gesprochen werden. Die Beschäftigung im Dienstleistungssektor und auch der Detailhandel zeigten aber eine positive Entwicklung.

Hoffnungsschimmer bei den Exporten

Die Entwicklung im Berichtsquartal zeigt insofern einen Hoffnungsschimmer, als die Exporte erstmals seit anderthalb Jahren wieder einen Wachstumsbeitrag (+ 4,0 Prozent) lieferten.

Ausgesprochen düster sieht es aber bei den Ausrüstungs-Investitionen aus, die um 18,9 Prozent im freien Fall waren und damit seit einem Jahr mit zweistelligen Raten schrumpfen. Der private Konsum, der rund 60 Prozent zum BIP beisteuert, wuchs noch um 1,0 Prozent.

Wirtschaftswachstums-Prognose 2002: 0,5 Prozent

Das seco bekräftigte seine im August revidierten Aussichten, wonach die Wirtschaft in diesem Jahr um lediglich 0,5 Prozent und im nächsten Jahr um 1,7 Prozent wachsen wird.

Im Falle eines anhaltenden Kriegs im Irak müsste man laut Brunetti aber erneut über die Bücher.

Zum Vergleich: Ebenfalls am Donnerstag publizierte das Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft eine Prognose für die Europäische Union. 0,8 Prozent sehen die Experten für dieses Jahr voraus. Falls sich die weltpolitische Lage nicht zuspitzt und der Ölpreis nachhaltig steigt, sei im kommenden Jahr mit einem Wachstum von 2,3 Prozent in Euroland zu rechnen.

Einmalige Finanzstützung als Signal

An ein staatliches Konjunktur-Programm denkt man trotz der deutlich verdüsterten Lage im Volkswirtschaftsministerium von Pascal Couchepin nicht. Man setzt stattdessen auf längerfristig wirksame, strukturelle Massnahmen, welche die Produktivität fördern sollen. Der Wirtschaftsminister will aber demnächst die Arbeitsbeschaffungs-Reserven von rund 350 Mio. Franken freigeben.

Bernd Schips, Leiter der Konjunkturforschungsstelle der ETH Zürich, gibt sich verhalten optimistisch. Er glaubt, dass die vorgesehene Freigabe der Arbeitsbeschaffungs-Reserven konjunkturell stimulierend wirken könnte.

Gewerkschaften fordern Verzicht auf staatliche Sparprogramme

Die Gewerkschaften verlangen griffige Massnahmen, um einen Konjunktureinbruch mit hohen Arbeitslosenzahlen zu verhindern. Für Serge Gaillard, Sekretär des Schweizerischen Gewerkschaftsbundes, ist das Wichtigste, dass die Notenbank die Aufwertung des Frankens weiter bekämpft.

Weiter fordern die Gewerkschaften, dass die öffentlichen Haushalte auf Sparprogramme verzichten.

Die politischen Parteien reagierten nicht überraschend auf die neusten Zahlen.
Langfristige Wachstumsimpulse durch strukturelle Reformen und Wirtschafts-Anzreize sind bei den Bürgerlichen gefragt; rasche Ankurbelungs-Massnahmen und eine weitere Lockerung der Geldpolitik wollen die Linken.

Bankökonomen enttäuscht

Die jüngsten Quartalsschätzungen haben die Bankökonomen enttäuscht. Sie hatten mit einer Zunahme des BIP im zweiten Quartal von 1,1 Prozent im Vergleich zum
Vorquartal und nicht bloss mit 0,4 Prozent gerechnet.

Zusammen mit den nach unten revidierten Zahlen der Vorquartale und den Befürchtungen über deutlich steigende Arbeitslosenzahlen sei mit einer schlechteren Konsumentenstimmung zu rechnen, hiess es in einer Umfrage bei Bankökonomen. Die jüngsten Daten seien klar deflationär, und die Lage präsentierte sich nun deutlich anders als noch vor kurzem, sagte Andreas Höfert von UBS Warburg.

swissinfo und Agenturen

[kickaha]

Hallo Profibugs,

gibt es eine Direktbank, bei der man auch an ausländischen Börsen (bspw. Gallien) zu vernünftigen Konditionen ver/kaufen kann.

Viele Dank für die Guten Tips

Gruß Kickaha

[dimtik]

hi !!
in der schweiz gehts schlecht
dann geh mal in das depressionsland spanien unglaublich
preise ueberzogen ueberall leer, nur immos kaufen die als gaebe es keine mehr.
schlimmer wie ich dachte
gruss aus spanien
bis naechste woche
lapalmita

ps die offiziellen inflationszahlen sind eine absolute luege
die gefuehlte inflation liegt zwar hoeher dennoch ich denke dieses jahr eine inflationsrate von rund 9-11% vs den offiz. von 3,5%
naechstes jahr bekommt die tourismusindustrie hier boese einen auf den deckel, egal was passiert

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_669422.html?menu=bu…

IMF says further US stock market declines a `considerable risk`

The IMF identified further US stock market declines, an accelerated slowdown in net US capital inflows, and continued weakening of financial firms` balance sheets as considerable downside risks to the global economy "in the immediate future."

In its quarterly Global Financial Stability report, the IMF cited "the possibility of further equity price declines, and in the worst case scenario panic selling by both institutional investors" as one of three "considerable downside risks ... in the immediate future."

While referring to industrialised equity markets generally, the IMF specified risks to the US market, where retail investors have a greater presence than in Europe or Japan.

The report also highlighted conclusions in the forthcoming World Economic Outlook (WEO) report that Europe`s economic recovery does not appear self-sustaining, and that Japan`s banking sector problems will likely constrain domestic demand growth for some time.

Global financial market conditions "have deteriorated significantly" since the end of the first quarter, the report said, "reflecting the sharp erosion of investor confidence and heightened risk aversion."

But for the most part, market adjustments can be judged as "stopping short of the kind of widespread withdrawal from risk taking that could detain the global recovery."

The report noted that industry sources suggest a record high outflow of $47 billion from US equity mutual funds in July.

"A continuation of the estimated record outflows seen in July would be consistent with households selling parts of their equity portfolios to preserve wealth and future pension incomes," the IMF said.

This risk of widespread equity selling in turn could affect the real economy, as research suggests that a 20% decline in US stocks reduces consumption growth by 1% of GDP over two years, the report said.

Particularly in the US, the stock market decline has come as a reaction to falling corporate earnings outlooks and continued financial disclosure scandals and concerns.

To date, major global stock market declines can be characterised as a "shift to quality," not a full-blown "flight to safety," the report concluded.

The report also said developed-world equity markets may now be finding a floor, despite the downside risks.

The decline in stocks to date "has unwound at least some of the excesses and imbalances (of the late 1990s boom), as suggested by deflation in TMT stocks worldwide," and by substantial numbers of defaults and bankruptcies, the IMF said.

The report cited anecdotal evidence of distressed-asset investors and restructuring firms now receiving capital inflows, and some buying of underpriced assets.

"These activities could help to establish a floor for asset prices and mobilise markets," the IMF said. Furthermore, increased risk aversion "seems to have subsided somewhat in recent weeks," the IMF said.

The declines in stock markets to date have also brought price-to-earnings ratios better in line with historic averages, the report said, and "have worn off some of the unrealistically high equity valuations that were once a direct source of risk."

The IMF warned in its March Global Financial Stability report that high US P/E ratios made stock prices vulnerable to a correction. US Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill shortly afterward said he was not concerned, as corporate earnings would rise, saying "as earnings improve the P/Es will go down."

Instead, the drop in equity prices since March has generated the correction in P/E ratios.

Looking at prospective 12 month earnings, the S&P 500 index has gone from 22 in March to around 16, the report said. The S&P 500 P/E ratio has averaged 17.9 over the past 10 years.

Turning to the US capital account and the dollar, the report concluded that given the examples of past episodes, there appears "small likelihood of a sudden and marked shift in investor sentiment against US assets, an abrupt reversal of flows into US financial markets, (or) precipitous declines in the ... dollar."

Foreign portfolio and direct investment inflows to the US have dropped in tandem with the dollar this year, suggesting "that international investor sentiment toward US assets has deteriorated."

This move highlights the risk of a sharp "reappraisal" of the value of US investments relative to investments in home countries, which in turn "could cause an abrupt shift in the pattern of capital flows among major financial centers," the IMF said.

In the late 1980s, the US also saw a marked decline in net capital inflows, but the dollar appreciated from 1987 on, showing "no clear evidence that a reversal in net capital inflows precipitated a sharp depreciation in the dollar" the Fund noted.

Now, the risk of a sharp reversal in capital flows and a deep fall in the dollar is partly mitigated by the potential that global investors may not find prospects for returns any better outside the US.

This is particularly possible given the current European and Japanese economic outlooks, the Fund said.

The report cites from the forthcoming WEO, to be released Sept 25, that "the pickup in Europe does not yet appear to be self-sustaining; and domestic demand growth in Japan is likely to remain constrained by banking and corporate sector difficulties for some time."

The WEO will also say that the global economic recovery will continue, "perhaps at a slower pace than previously expected."

The IMF report noted that at current values, the dollar in real, effective terms is "still well above its average in the 1990s."

To help ensure an orderly correction in global current and capital account imbalances, the IMF suggested the US should tighten fiscal policy and reduce budget deficits over the medium term, while Europe and Japan should implement reforms to raise domestic demand.

The third risk to global finance is seen in weakened balance sheets and profitability at financial institutions - particularly among European banks and insurers, the report said.

Bank and insurance stocks have been hit relatively harder in Europe than the US the past quarter - due in part, the IMF suggested to heavier exposure to corporate and TMT risk, in terms of both loans and equity holdings.

In the US, non-financial firms seek more financing through credit and equity markets, leaving the banking sector with relatively less risk exposure.

European bank share prices "may also have been affected by concerns over their generally complex accounting structures, similar to some of the more diversified US financial institutions."

Separately, the Fund predicted further consolidation in the German banking sector, partly as a consequence of continued sub-par economic growth depressing profitability, but also of the future ending of public guarantees for certain types of banks.

"Further consolidation in the domestic banking sector is likely to take place as public guarantees for the Landesbanken and Sparkassen are slated to expire in stages through 2005," the Fund said.

Story filed: 13:46 Thursday 12th September 2002



© AFX News

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=27169

The first Global Agreement In Mining

13.09.2002 13:29

The agreement will be signed between AngloGold, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the ICEM at the AngloGold head office in Johannesburg.

It is the first global agreement in the mining industry and the first in the developing world.

The agreement commits Anglogold and the ICEM to engage in partnerships that will ensure harmonious and good work relationships throughout the world, as well as enabling and increasing the potential for solidarity among workers in all of Anglogold’s operations.

This agreement is to improve negative image the industry has acquired, that is, of being an industry of death and corrosion of communities and their environment.

[Neftegaz.ru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Economy/0,4186,2-8-25_1…

13/09/2002 14:41 - (SA)

SA gold output rises in Q2

Johannesburg - South Africa produced 3.2 million ounces of gold in the quarter ended June 2002, up from 3.08 million ounces in the same quarter last year, the Chamber of Mines said on Friday.

Gold production rose by 169 370 ounces on the quarter ended March 2002, the Chamber said in a statement.

For the six months to June 2002, production was 6.26 million ounces, from 6.23 million ounces in the same period last year.

[ThaiGuru]

Mountain of Unregulated Derivatives
is De facto Financial Terrorism

US Govt Report (Controller of the Currency) reveals massive unlisted & non-transparent Derivative (short) positions in bankers` ("weak") hands

Conclusion: we stand at turning point for the return of gold as currency.

Meantime gold can rise to $1,450 to $1,700 over next 5 years.

The Significance of the Recent Quarterly Report of the Office of the Controller of the Currency on Derivatives on the Books of US Institutions.
By Harry Schultz & James Sinclair


1. US Banks, all of whom are gold dealer cartel members, carry 69.4% of the $72,000,000,000,000.00 derivatives that exist worldwide.
2. JPMorgan alone carries 35% of the $72,000,000,000,000.00 derivatives that exist worldwide.

We make these 5 critical observations:

a. The war against gold is a war to sustain the entire mountain of "sewage" (Warren Buffet`s term) derivatives.

b. The size of the sewage mountain of debt is "over the top," beyond reason, & financial insanity. It is the gift to mankind from the "Instant Gratification Economy" of 1970 to 2001.

c. It is the mechanism that history will point to in the future as the place in time when & why the reinstitution of gold as a currency began in earnest

d. It is the reason that gold can go to $1,450 to $1,700 over the next 5 years. There will come a clamour for a return to the gold standard, to establish "standards of behavior" in society. Gold is where standards can be founded.

e. This mountain of debt insanity is more dangerous to mankind`s standard of living than all the terrorists on the planet. It is, in fact, a defacto collective act of financial terrorism.

Foundational facts: this derivative sewage mountain of Financial Terrorism is 97%:

1. Unregulated.
2. Unlisted
3. Not clearinghouse funded.
4. Not marked-to-market (i.e., according to real market prices) but rather by computer simulation.
5. The computer simulation for mark-to-market is not standardized.
6. Dealers are commonly non-guaranteed as to trade debt subsidiaries generally offshore to the domicile of the well known investment and commercial bank parent holding companies.
7. Non-transparent instruments.
8. Without standards, closure (closing out) cannot be made at will. Standards mean similar instruments which, if purchased, close all obligations.

----- Greed must pay the piper in the end ------

(This article appeared on 9/11 in GoldChartsRUs)

James Sinclair. Chairman Tan Range Exploration Corp. (TXN)
website: www.tanrange.com
Harry Schultz, Int`l Harry Schultz Letter
Website: http://[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20020913-011754-8182r

Asia central banks upping gold reserves

By Sonia Kolesnikov

UPI Business Correspondent
From the Business & Economics Desk
Published 9/13/2002 9:22 AM


SINGAPORE, Sept. 13 (UPI) -- Asian central banks are likely to increase their gold holdings as they reassess their international reserves` overdependence on the U.S. dollar given the current economic environment, a senior official from the World Gold Council said Friday.

"I suspect that Asian central banks are starting to relook at their position in gold, and it would not surprise me if they start buying gold," said Ralston Thiedeman, WGC`s director for East Asia.

Central banks around the world hold about 33,000 tons in gold reserves, but Asian central banks only own a fraction of this total. Typically and traditionally, Asian central banks hold between 1 percent and 4 percent of their total reserves in gold, as a ratio. This compared with a 7 percent to 12 percent ratio in the Middle East, a 35 percent to 45 percent ratio among European central banks and 58 percent for the U.S. Federal Reserve.

"We, at the World Gold Council, believe that the Asian central banks hold too little gold," Thiedeman told United Press International on the side of a conference. "We believe there has been an overdependence on the U.S. dollar, and the council has been encouraging Asian central banks to relook at their gold reserves and their ratio, and to have a clear and unambiguous policy on gold."

Thiedeman said many Asian central banks "clearly realize and acknowledge that they have been overreliant and overinvested on the U.S. dollar." Given the current geopolitical risks and economic scenarios, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit (around $450 billion or 4 percent of GDP), the dollar is likely to weaken over the coming months, Thiedeman argued. As gold is negatively correlated to the dollar, it is likely to be a beneficiary of this weaker dollar, he added.

"We have seen 4 or 5 central banks which are now committed to writing a policy on gold, though I`m not at liberty to tell you who they are. But I have been assisting them," he said.

Thiedeman indicated that one central bank, appreciating that U.S. interest rates are at a 40-year low, is looking to reallocate its assets, reducing its exposure to U.S. Treasuries and increase its holding in gold.

In the last couple of years, several Asian central banks have been gold buyers, most notably the Chinese central bank. The Philippines central bank, as well as the central banks from Sri Lanka and Mongolia, have also be seen in the market.

Medium-term, another reason for some Asian central banks to increase their gold reserves could be the use of the gold dinar, as a means to settle international trade amongst Islamic states.

The idea has been championed by Malaysia`s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad earlier this year, as a way to prevent a repeat of the currency crisis which devastated Asia in 1997-1998. The Malaysian premier argues that while paper currency has no intrinsic value, making the exchange rate "arbitrary and subject to manipulation," the gold dinar has a definite value based on world demand for gold. According to Islamic law, the dinar is a specific weight of gold equivalent to 4.3 grams.

The dinar would not replace national currency and would only be used to settle trade.

"If the gold dinar comes into operation at some point in the future, then the implication would be that the respective Islamic central banks may have to re-evalue their gold holdings, and most likely add to their gold reserves," said Thiedeman.

Speaking at a conference organized by the Institute of Policy Studies here, Thiedeman gave a fairly positive outlook for gold, though he felt short of forecasting any price direction.

Gold traded as high as $850 an ounce in 1980, but over the last 20 years, this price has steadily declined, falling to a low of $252 in 1999. Since then, gold prices have somewhat recovered, as the metal is increasingly seen once again as a safe haven, especially as the U.S. dollar weakens. Gold currently trades around $319 an ounce, still a far cry from its heyday.

"I believe that there will always be a role for gold as long as political and financial crisis exist, so let there be no doubt that gold today is as good as it has ever been, perhaps better," he said.


Copyright © 2002 United Press International

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

IWF warnt vor Panikverkäufen und globalen Wirtschaftsturbulenzen

WASHINGTON - Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) warnt angesichts der Verunsicherung vieler Anleger vor Panikverkäufen an den Aktienmärkten und weltweiten Turbulenzen auf den Kapitalmärkten.

Sollten politische und wirtschaftliche Hiobsbotschaften vor allem in den wichtigen Entwicklungsländern jedoch ausbleiben, ist damit zu rechnen, dass die internationalen Finanzsysteme widerstandsfähig und stabil bleiben. Das schreibt der IWF in einem Bericht über die Lage der weltweiten Kapitalmärkte. Der Konjunkturaufschwung werde in aller Welt schwächer ausfallen als bislang angenommen.
Besonders neue Bilanzskandale könnten das Vertrauen der Privatanleger weiter erschüttern und durch Kundenbankrotte belastete Banken veranlassen, ihre Kreditrahmen zu kürzen. «Das könnte Marktbedingungen schaffen, in denen Angst mehr Angst produziert und Panikverkäufe stattfinden», schrieb die Kapitalmarkt-Abteilung des IWF.

«Die unmittelbaren Risiken, die damit verbunden wären, schliessen das Potenzial globaler Marktturbulenzen ein, einschliesslich schwerer Folgen für die aufstrebenden Märkte.»

Verluste der grossen Banken könne vor allem Institute in Europa veranlassen, ihre Risiken weiter zu beschränken und Kredite zu verweigern. In den USA könnte ein Rückgang der Kapitalzuflüsse Probleme bereiten. Dies müsse allerdings nicht zwangsweise abrupte Liquiditätsprobleme verursachen, schreibt der IWF.

Die Entwicklung in Brasilien betrachtet der IWF mit Sorge. Sollten Investoren der künftigen Regierung misstrauen und sich weiter zurück ziehen, könne sich die Finanzkrise in der Region ausweiten. Schon jetzt kämen Unternehmen in aufstrebenden Märkten auf den internationalen Kapitalmärkten immer schwieriger an Kredite. 121650 sep


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

Das soll er sein, das al Qaeda Mitglied, und einer der Verantwortlichen für den Anschlag auf Amerika, vom 11. September 2001!

Ramzi Binalshibh

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.detnews.com/2002/business/0209/14/business-586855…

Saturday, September 14, 2002

Gold dollar coins a flop after three years


By Laurie Kellman / Associated Press

WASHINGTON

Gold dollar coins weigh down the pockets. They are costly to ship. And few Americans think they`re better than the good old greenback.

Dollar coins are a flop even before their third birthday, even after a $67.1 million, three-year marketing campaign by the U.S. Mint, a government report says.

While initial public awareness generated by the advertising was strong, the new dollar coin, like the Susan B. Anthony dollar coin, "has failed to achieve widespread use," the General Accounting Office reported Friday.

According to July, 2001 statistics from the U.S. Mint, people use the dollar coin in just 1 percent of dollar transactions, the report said.

(Diese Statistik stammt aus der Zeit, als an Gold fast niemand mehr Interesse zeigte, als der Goldpreis auf einem 25 Jahrestief von ca. 260.- Dollar pro Unze stand! TG)

U.S. Mint Director Henrietta Holsman Fore acknowledged her agency has yet to overcome public and commercial resistance to using the coin dollar and generally concurred with the report`s findings, she wrote in response.

It is the second time a dollar coin has failed to catch on -- the last being the silvery Anthony coin, which often was mistaken for the quarter. To rectify the problem, Congress in 1997 required the new coin dollar to be golden in color.
But the GAO reported Friday that banks, retailers and others are widely mixing the two together, since they are both $1 denominations.

"Until we minimize commingling, many people will continue to avoid using dollar coins in general," the Holsman Fore wrote.

So formidable were the cultural bias and other problems that the U.S. Mint earlier this year stopped circulating the gold dollar coin until it could reconsider its viability. The GAO report recommended that the U.S. Mint not spend any more money on marketing unless it found a plan that it could show would persuade more people to choose the coin over the paper bill.

Among the problems pointed out in the report:

-- Widespread use of the dollar bill and public resistance to the dollar coin. "Until individuals can see that the coin is widely used by others and that the government intends to replace the dollar bill with the dollar coin, they will be unlikely to use the coin in everyday transactions," the GAO wrote.

-- A chain reaction that preserves the status quo. Retailers will not stock the dollar coin until they see the public using it. The public is unlikely to use the coin until they see retailers stocking it. And banks and armored carriers are reluctant to invest in new equipment to handle the coin until there is wide demand for it, the GAO said.

-- "Some people consider the ease of carrying the bill to be more beneficial than the durability of the dollar coin," the GAO wrote

-- Higher delivery fees for the heavier dollar coins than paper bills.

It didn`t start out this way. Hopes for the new currency were high five years ago when Congress passed, and President Clinton signed, a law authorizing the new dollar coin to replace the Anthony dollar coin. Its face would bear a rendering of Sacagawea, a Shoshone interpreter who assisted the 1804-1806 Lewis and Clark expedition to the Pacific Ocean.

The act directed the department to start a marketing program for the new coin. And it prohibited the paper dollar from being removed from circulation.
The GAO estimated that the dollar coin would save taxpayers about $500 million each year because coins last longer than paper notes and cost less for the government to distribute. The coin is profitable per unit, since it costs the mint about 12 cents to produce one, for which the government receives $1.00 in spending power.

On the Net:
General Accounting Office: http://www.gao.gov
U.S. Mint: http://www.usmint.gov

[ThaiGuru]

Zu #1877

Das im letzten Posting beschriebene USA Goldcoin entält keinen Goldanteil, und wird nur wegen seiner goldenen Farbe von den Amis Goldcoin genannt.

Es handelt sich nicht um wie ich zuerst fälschlicher Weise geglaubt habe, um die 1/4, 1/2, und 1 Unzen Goldeagle, deren Absatzt in den USA in den letzten 9 Monaten in den USA massiv angezogen hat.

Diese "Goldmünze" war/ist gedacht als Ersatz für die 1 Dollar Papier Geldscheine.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.goldandsilvermines.com/all.htm
oder:
http://www.goldandsilvermines.com/

Für alle diejenigen unter den WGoldboard Usern und Lesern, die über die nötigen finanziellen Mittel, und die nötige Risikobereitschaft verfügen, bietet sich auf der obigen Homepage, täglich die Möglichkeit, sich eine eigene Gold oder Silbermine zu kaufen, oder sich an einer solchen zu beteiligen.

Gold und Silber Claims werden ebenfalls feilgeboten.

Wer weiss, vielleicht ist ja für den einen, oder anderen unter Euch, etwas passendes im Angebot?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[vomo]

13.09.2002
Gold Ausbruchsniveau und Kursziele
M.M.Warburg & CO

Bei bewusstem Verzicht auf die aus den Preisen abgeleitete Ebene der Markttechnik-Indikatoren nennt der technische Analyst Holger Struck von M.M. Warburg & CO an dieser Stelle nochmals die Ausbruchsmarken und mittel- bis langfristigen Kursziele für den Preis der Feinunze.

Zunächst sei standortbestimmend festzuhalten, dass der Kursrückgang von Juni bis Anfang August erstens sehr exakt einen Pull Back an die (steigende) 200-Tage-Linie dargestellt habe, zweitens ebenfalls sehr lehrbuchgemäß die bis zum ersten Ausbruch im Februar gültige Obergrenze des Charts getestet habe und drittens in Form einer den Aufwärtstrend bestätigenden Abwärtsflagge verlaufen sei. Alles das sei positiv (bullish) zu werten. Die ersten Ausbruchsversuche durch die obere Begrenzung der Flagge (Abwärtstrend vom Hoch im Juni, der aktuell bei 318,86 verlaufe) fänden derzeit statt.

Richtig spannend werde es aber unabhängig von diesem Fortsetzungssignal erst auf dem Niveau der Hochpunkte bei 338 bzw. 331,4 USD vom Oktober 1999 und Juni 2002. Aus dem völlig symmetrisch ausgeprägtem Verlauf der Kurse zwischen diesen beiden Hochpunkten (Rounding Bottom) und dem vertikalen Abstand der Formation (338/331 USD minus Tiefpunkt bei 255 USD = ca. plus 80 USD) lasse sich für den Fall eines gelingenden Ausbruchs ein Kursziel von ca. 415 USD angeben. Um es klar zu sagen: Man erwarte diesen Ausbruch früher oder später und empfehle eine dementsprechende Positionierung. Je nach Risikoneigung stünden als Vehikel Gold, Goldminenaktien, -fonds und -zertifikate sowie Goldoptionen zur Auswahl.

Quelle/Source: http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=1&paget…

[vomo]

13.09.2002
Gold hat Aktien und Anleihen überholt
e-fundresearch.de

Nach fast 20 Jahren Flaute sind der Goldpreis und die Aktienkurse von Goldminen wieder stark gestiegen. Das Edelmetall ist immer noch beliebtes Ziel von Fluchtbewegungen. Doch Gold bietet auch reizvolle Renditechancen. Dies berichten die Fondsexperten von "e-fundresearch.de".

Die Gründe würden nicht in den USA allein liegen, wo auch Bilanzskandale und Mega-Pleiten viele Anleger ins Gold flüchten ließen. In Japan beispielsweise sei durch krisenbedingte Zins- und Kursstürze die Goldnachfrage vom ersten Quartal 2001 zum ersten Quartal 2002 um 156 Prozent gestiegen. Dazu komme, dass in Gesamt-Asien das glänzende Metall für Schmuck sehr begehrt sei. Seit 2000 sei die weltweite Nachfrage größer als das Angebot.

Während Anleger 1999 und 2000 noch vom rasanten Aufstieg der Internet- und Telekom-Aktien geblendet worden seien, kehre das älteste Investment der Welt langsam zu altem Glanz zurück. Seit Anfang 2000 habe Gold in der Wertentwicklung sowohl Aktien als auch Anleihen überholt. Der weltweite Aktienmarkt, gemessen am MSCI-World-Index, habe seit Januar 2001 rund 35 Prozent verloren, der Preis für die Feinunze Gold sei auf Dollarbasis um 16 Prozent gestiegen. Mit 13 Prozent Gewinn hätten selbst Renten nicht mithalten können.

Gold sei in keinem wichtigen Vergleichsindex, wie etwa dem MSCI-World-Index, vertreten. Und so sei das Edemetall auch in den Portfolios institutioneller Anleger kaum zu finden. "Der andauernde Abwärtstrend brachte auch niemanden auf den Gedanken, Gold als Investmentidee zu überdenken", sage Evy Hambro, Fondsmanager bei Merrill Lynch. Das habe sich bei Profi- wie Privatanlegern geändert. "Bei der Vermögensaufteilung gewinnt Gold immer mehr an Bedeutung", sage Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, Rohstoff-Experte bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "Wir stehen aber erst am Anfang." In Zukunft erwarte er, ebenso wie Fondsmanager Hambro, eine höhere Nachfrage. Gründe sehe er neben der Risikostreuung auch in der unsicheren Lage an den Aktienmärkten. Dazu würden politische Risiken kommen, etwa ein militärisches Eingreifen der USA im Irak. "Allein eine Steigerung der Nachfrage um zehn Prozent hätte eine drastische Auswirkung auf den Goldpreis", so Wrzesniok-Roßbach.

Quelle/Source:http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=1&paget…

[ThaiGuru]

Auszug aus dem neusten THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER vom 14. September, 2002, von Bob Chapman.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



STATISTICS

Motivated by free vehicle financing and $9,000 discounts or buy merchandise and start paying in two years, July consumer spending was up 1% versus plus 0.5% in June. Wages and salaries fell 0.29 versus a gain of 0.7% in June. The Dow ended August off 8.4%, Nasdaq 9.8% and the S&P 500 was up 4.4%. Peregrine Systems, which laid off half its workers in June is reassembling its cooked sales figures. Since March of 2000 Wall Street analysts have dropped coverage of 898 companies listed on the NYSE & Nasdaq. Last week the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.27 from the previous week.

Department store chain sales all were worse in the first two weeks of August. Even WalMart was running at the low end. Merrill Lynch has downgraded retail stores, which means a drop in consumer spending is upon us. Back to school sales were tepid. First half bond sales were up 17% at $2.5 trillion. On the week ended 8/19/02 M-2 jumped $14.4 billion and M-3 $31.9 billion. Sir Alan sure knows how to pull the monetary expansion trigger, but he fights in vain. It’s a battle he now cannot win. Truth always wins over lies. In August the Dow was down for its fifth month in a row. That hasn’t happened since 1981. The Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P are off 14% since Memorial Day.

This is the 30th month of the bear market that was supposed to be a nine-month correction. So much for the Wall Street gurus and experts. As we predicted earnings are not going to be what the experts said they would be and both the third and fourth quarters will be less than expected. We predicted the S&P at $45.00. The experts predicted $57.00 when we made our prediction. If it weren’t for opportuning the market on pension fund assets, most corporate earnings would be substantially lower.

Incidentally GE, JPM and Citicorp are all $12.00 stocks. Mortgage holders are pulling their equity out of their homes as fast as they can but retail reports are not reflecting it. Bernie Ebbers made $11 million in four years on 21 hot stock offerings. This how Wall Street pays off their debts without reaching into their own pockets. The welfare line may await the CEO of Cendant, he has agreed to an annual pay cut from $36 to $15 million. IBM is cutting 4,000 more jobs after the merger of 50,000 IBM workers and 30,000 Price Waterhouse workers. IBM has already laid off 15,613 workers this year or 5% of staff and PWC 5,000 or 15%. The PMA of Chicago said area business activity rose to 54.9 in August from 51.5 in July. Another one bites the dust. Consolidated Freightways has filed for bankruptcy and 15,500 workers will be fired. In 2000, both husbands and wives worked in 56% of families versus 50% in 1986 and it takes both incomes to equal the male’s wage or salary buying power of 1971.

The ISM Survey of Manufacturers Index held at 50.5 in August from July and was below the expected average 53.8 for the first seven months of the year. Job reductions announced by US corporations rose to a six-month high of 118,067 in August. The Treasury sold $22 billion in bills last week, off from $25 billion the previous week. Construction spending was unchanged in July.

In Las Vegas home prices are up 5.8% to $155,800. In Salt Lake City house prices are up 2.7% this year to $150,400. Cryolife, that deals in body parts and human tissue will lay off 150 workers. National Airlines, which is in bankruptcy, has cut salaries 20% at the worker level and 10% at the manager and director levels. Northwest Airlines is laying off 1,000 workers plus 350 in October. Flight capacity is down 13% from July. Year-to-year August Ford Explorer sales were up 28.6%. Chevy Suburban up 113.8% and Jeep Grand Cherokee up 37.2%. We received one flyer from Ford-Mercury for no-interest, 60 month financing, $7,000 off the 2002 models and $2,000 extra on your trade in. That means they are selling cars at cost. Aquila Inc.’s credit rating was lowered for the second day in a row by Moody’s to Ba-2 and S&P to BBB minus their lowest investment rating or mega-junk. San Francisco house prices are up 11.8% year-to-year in August at $540,500. Sonic Blue is laying off 25% of staff or 100 of 400 employees.

California passed a $98.9 billion budget that will cut costs $23.6 billion and still leave a $9.8 billion shortfall. There will be no 50 cent-a-pack boost in state cigarette tax nor a $1.3 billion increase in vehicle licensing fees. The service sector report for August was down to 50.9 from 53.1 in July, which was terrible. State Street Research and Management laid off 60 employees or 11% of its staff of 533. Services represent 80% of GDP. New orders grew at a slower pace of 51.6 in August from 52.6 in July. Inventories fell from 52 in July to 46 in August. July factory orders grew 4.7% from a 2.5% decrease in June and factory shipments rose in July 1.6% from June. June fell 0.9%. Non-farm business productivity rose at an annual rate of 1.5% in August up from 1.1% in July just as we predicted. Output rose in the second quarter 0.8% while hours worked declined 0.7%. Higher output means more unemployment. Consumer purchases for August were lackluster except for home sales and vehicle giveaways. In August the index for 50 retailers rose 1.1% versus 2.9% in August 2001. Lies, lies and more lies – unemployment officially was 5.7% in August versus 5.9% in July. Our government again tries to manipulate our stock market. Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% to $14.82 an hour. Our government has no shame. Mortgage rates hit new lows this week with the 30-year fixed at 6.15% and the 15-year at 5.56%. One-year adjustables were 4.35%.

Tellabs is eliminating 800 more jobs or 15% of its workforce and is closing a manufacturing plant in Shannon, Ireland. Moody’s has changed its outlook for the US life insurance industry to negative from stable based on the existence of several negative trends and credit issues facing the sector. A Business Week poll found that 73% of Americans think corporations have too much power.

The Treasury sold $18 billion worth of short-term bills, of which $9 billion was fresh money in the week of 9/9/02. The government continues to hoard tetanus shots. You cannot get vaccine unless you have been injured and a doctor orders a shot. Due to retail theft you are paying 1.8% more for goods. That is $33.2 billion in stolen merchandise. Car theft was only $7.7 billion, burglary $3 billion and robbery $477 million in 2000.

Fidelity Magellan Fund’s cash position in July fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years as investors withdrew from the second largest stock mutual fund. In July consumer debt rose 7.6% elevating consumer debt to $1.72 trillion.

[ThaiGuru]

Mal was anderes!

Das sind sie die Goldhäschen, die Finallistinnen der heutigen Wahl zur Miss Schweiz.

[fiesje]

# 1883

Die sinn ja Goldisch ;--)

gruss fiesje

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.02, PM $1.22, with world gold at $318.70 and $319. Comfortably above, and rather below, legal import point. Reuters erroneously reports that the Indian Festival season is half over; in fact it has barely begun and lasts beyond Christmas.

Tocom was not inspired either by the yen (which firmed slightly) or President Bush’s UN speech. Volume dropped 27% to the equivalent of Comex 22, 238 lots, although open interest edged up by 399 Comex contracts and $US gold edged slightly higher. The active contract lost 3 yen. (NY yesterday traded 23,014 lots and added another 2404 to open interest.)

Normally, one would expect a galvanized market on Monday in Tokyo in response to the startling slump in the yen which got underway in NY hours today: and which at one time had the currency 2.5 yen down on its’ Tokyo close. Nothing seems to stimulate the Tocom gold trader more than a sliding yen. However, Japan has a long weekend: but if the yen does not recover – much less weakens further - Tuesday should be quite dramatic.

Bullion Bank commentators were generally quite complacent that gold would be steady today. Standard London was tempted into a very interesting observation. Saying of Thursday that

"gold traded in a narrow band between 317.65 offer and tried scratching at 320 resistance without any success"

They remark:

"Unseen forces have been keeping the prices of gold in a trapped range making it easy for punters to profit from trading in a trapped range"

Experienced observers not beholden to bullion banks, however, would not have been surprised when, having ignored the dollar’s remarkable rally all day, gold abruptly slumped $2 in a surge of selling which boosted the days’ estimated volume by 59% to 27,000. Standard’s "Unseen forces" are not unfelt.

A noted bullion dealer, made the most astute assessment, if associated with the most imaginative conclusion, from considering the President’s UN speech:

"the more surprising and important statement was about the long game the US is playing. "If we overcome…. The people of Iraq can shake off their captivity. They can one day join a democratic Afghanistan and a democratic Palestine, inspiring reforms throughout the Muslim world." Rightly or wrongly, the US is going for the whole schmeer. Imperialist? Idealistic? Not really relevant questions. Imagine [there is no heaven…] – what if the analysis of Bush and team is correct.. some measurable liberalization….would include higher oil output and a much lower oil price. Before the bullets fly, buy calls on everything cyclical?

My old friend John Dizard in his capacity as an FT columnist, managed to prove it is not everything published in the FT on gold is sneeringly hostile.

I am away this weekend at the 140th anniversary re enactment of Antietam, http://www.antietamreenactment.com/ still, despite 9/11 and an 8-fold increase in population, the bloodiest day of violence on American soil in history. I may not publish on Monday.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

September 14 - Gold $316.50 down $2.20 - Silver $4.55 down 3 cents

Bush 1, Bush 2, The Gold Cartel, WAR and Gold

Gold gave up what it made on Thursday. Early on, gold ignored a strengthening dollar and took off for $320 after a lower opening. Refco started throwing some thousand lots at the sellers. Enter JP Morgan Chase who made sure gold did not breach the pivotal $320 resistance level. They stopped the rally in its tracks and gold fell back to slightly lower on the day. Morgan showed up again in the last half hour bashing gold once again, taking it as far away as they could from pivotal $320. They are a consistent bunch.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

Desperate too it would appear, based on Morgan’s share price action. It is terrible and trades like a submerging submarine. In my opinion it forebodes a coming financial market and economic disaster in the U.S. You have heard this prediction from Midas for years, but now its imminence is profoundly disturbing, as it may be the real reason President Bush is ranting and raving about going to war with Iraq in "weeks and days," not years and months.

Allow me to set the scene for the rest of my thoughts and how it relates to gold by presenting commentary from Richard Russell last evening:

I think it was about ten years ago that I had dinner with Dr. Kurt Richebacher, formerly chief economist for Germany`s Dresdner Bank. The good doctor struck me as brilliant ten years ago, and I still think he`s brilliant. Dr. Richebacher is very bearish regarding the current US situation.

Here`s just a bit from his latest report (The Richebacher Letter, 1 800 433 1528).

"Looking for more details, we discovered some further shocking facts. Overall, profits in the nonfinancial sector fell from 1997 to the first quarter of 2002 by 42%. This compares with GDP growth over the same period by 23%. In other words, as a share of GDP and national income, profits have literally collapsed. Apparently related to the economy`s slowdown, the profit decline sharply accelerated from the second quarter of 2000.

"The present savage profit squeeze in unique in history in that it has occurred in he absence of any rate hikes on the part of the Federal Reserve. In fact, the Fed slashed its interest rates with unprecedented speed.

"Yet soaring interest rate expenses are playing a key role in ravaging profits. For the business sector as a whole, business interest expenses soared between 1997-2001, for the non-financial sector by 65%, and for the manufacturing sector by 81%. And most remarkably, they continued to rise in 2001, despite the Fed`s aggressive rate cuts.

Dr. R winds up his report as follows, "America`s monstrous asset bubble has left behind an array of growth-inhibiting structural dislocations -- a profit implosion, a record shortfall of savings, a capital spending collapse, a massive current account deficit, and record-high debt levels. Together they exclude any possibility of a sustained economic recovery."

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sonntagsblick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=37354







Grosser Moment: Knapp nach 22 Uhr fiel die Entscheidung: Die zweitplatzierte Claudia Oehler aus Zürich (links) gratuliert der neuen Schönheitskönigin Nadine Vinzens (19) zum Titel.

[ThaiGuru]

!Jetzt lesen wir eine weitere Bestätigung!

Letztes Jahr wurden die Lücken bei der Versorgung mit physischem Silber durch die Reserven der USA ausgeglichen, was sich preisdrückend ausgewirkt hat.

Wir wissen auch, dass die USA nicht mehr in der Lage ist weiteres Silber zu liefern, da ihre eigenen Reserven fast komplet aufgebraucht wurden, und ohne die von den USA angekündigten Silber-Zukäufe am Markt, nicht einmal mehr die eigenen Silber Eagle geprägt werden können.

Dass China schon seit längerer Zeit die Lücken in der Silberversorgung schliessen musste ist auch seit langer Zeit bekannt. Dass China jetzt die Silberverkäufe um 980 Tonnen erhöhen will, (ob sie das auch wirklich in dieser Menge bewerkstelligen können sei einmal dahingestellt) was einer Menge von ca. 31 Mio. Unzen entspricht, war mir bis jetzt noch nicht bekannt.

Um die Menge an geplanten Silber Mehrverkäufen durch China etwas mehr zu veranschaulichen:

Die USA benötigt für die geplante, und bewilligte Produktion an 1$ Silber Eagles bereits schon ca. 10 Mio. Unzen pro Jahr, die sie bis letztes Jahr aus eigenen Beständen bezogen.

Auch diese in diesem Beitrag der "Peopledaily" angekündigte Ausweitung der Silber Exporte Chinas, ist nur ein Tropfen auf den heissen Stein, und kann den Weltnachfrageüberhang nach Silber, in keiner Weise decken können. China hätte auch jederzeit die Möglichkeit, durch Einstellung ihrer Silberexporte, das Preisgefüge beim Silber "total neu zu gestalten".

Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/15/eng20020915_1032…

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, September 15, 2002

China Becomes a Major Silver Exporter

China is playing an increasingly important role in silver trading worldwide since becoming a major exporter of the precious metal.

China is playing an increasingly important role in silver trading worldwide since becoming a major exporter of the precious metal.

The first Annual China Silver Conference, in the capital of north China`s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, heard that the precious metal was in short supply.

"As for the world silver market, the question yet to be answered is whether the Chinese government will continue to sell abroad its silver reserves," Jaime Lomelin, president of Industrias Penoles, the world largest silver production enterprise based in Mexico, said.

He explained that silver supply through traditional channels had failed to meet manufacturers` demand for 12 years. Last year the shortage was met from government reserves, particularly those of the United States and China, he added.

According to estimates by the Washington-based Gold Fields Mineral Services, China makes 64 million of the total 86 million ounces of silver traded last year by governments on the global market.

China started to export silver in the form of raw materials after January 2000, when it deregulated the precious metal. Many silver producers have since been licensed for external trade, and silver exporters now even enjoy tax rebates, according to Liu Shengyu, general manager of China National Pearl Diamond Gem and Jewelry Import and Export Corporation.

He said that last year China set the silver export quota at 1,180 tons, much higher than the 200 tons for the previous year. The figure will rise to a new high this year.

[ThaiGuru]

Auf der Homepage des Word Silver Institutes werden leider immer noch alte Angaben zum Verbrauch und Produktion von Silber angegeben, obwohl eigentlich diese Oeganisation die Interessen der Silberproduzenten zu vertreten vorgibt.

Zumindest sind auch die alten Figuren und Zahlen ganz eindeutig. Die Nachfrage nach Silber steigt stetig an, und kann selbst durch eine eventuelle Exportausweitung durch China sicherlich nicht befriedigt werden.

Es grenzt schon an eine Zumutung wenn bei dieser Silberorganisation noch Zahlen vom Jahr 2000 auf der Homepage angeboten werden.

Immerhin läuft seit kurzer Zeit ein Ticker über die Eingangsseite, auf dem der neue Welt Silber Analyse 02 angeboten wird, wenn auch unverschämt teuer!

"New! World Silver Survey 2002 is now available! US$175.00"

http://www.silverinstitute.org/

Diese alte Graphik bleibt aber im Trend weiterhin aktuel, auch wenn sie veraltet ist.

http://www.silverinstitute.org/demand.html

[hpoth]

Hallo ThaiGuru
ist ja alles schön und gut mit dem Silber,ich halte schon seit Jahren 8000 oz Silber und warte ,warte und warte, es tut sich eben nichts mit dem Anstieg.Wie ist da noch zu erklären? Kannst Du mir vieleicht etwas positives vermitteln,wäre Dir dankbar.
Noch einen schöenen Sonntag Grus aus Frankfurt hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpot

Es gibt eigentlich nur 2 Möglichkeiten für Dich und Deine 250 Kilo Silber.

Wenn Du Dich trotz einem mind. 11 Jahre langen Silber Nachfrage Ueberhang, und den tiefsten Silberlager Beständen seit mind. 25 Jahren, plus 330 Mio Unzen ungedeckter Silber Shortverkäufen, die von gerade nur 8 Finanzinstituten gehalten werden (lt. Buttler), und auch den heutigen Silberpreisen, die trotz vorangegangener Inflation, auf dem Nivau von vor 25 Jahren liegen, verunsichert in Deiner Anlage Entscheidung von vor einigen Jahren fühlst, kannst Du entweder, vermutlich mit einem Verlust verkaufen, oder aber weiterhin in Silber investiert bleiben, und auf die Zeiten warten, wo diese Preismanipulationen ein Ende finden werden, und die Silber Preise wieder von Angebot und Nachfrage bestimmt werden, und nicht nur von wenigen Interessierten.

Die gute Nachricht die Du Dir wünscht, auf die warten neben Dir bestimmt noch einige, viele?, Leute mehr.

Gute Nachrichten gab es in der Vergangenheit übrigens schon mehrmals zum Silber, und trotzdem konnte Silber nicht im Preis davon profitieren!

Warum wohl???


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[anonymst]

Hallo ThaiGuru.

Erst mal danke für den tollen Thread.

Was denkst Du den über den Euro-Einbruch heute? Ist das Deiner Meinung nach Manipulation, da wohl nur wenig Leute gerade handeln?

Danke.

[ThaiGuru]

Ein wie mir scheint sehr interessanter Beitrag eines USA Goldboard Users von heute.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

sector (9/15/02; 10:53:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85157)

@MK My LBMA work and How Options Keep POG Down

Actially I`m interested in the continuing drop in overall volume...

...on both the LBMA silver and gold markets. The effect of a rising options volume on POG is the purview of Don Lindley, who is the only person outside the cabal who has captured the entire COMEX derivative spectrum on a single spreadsheet. He can tell on balance the "Tilt" of the COMEX at any given instant by measuring ALL it`s positions and therefore has a clue as to the future movement of pog.

Arrayed against Linley`s efforts is the invisible OTC market actions which is 9X bigger. That`s where the hidden movements are that we all would like to see.

My assertion is that there is a falling LBMA gold and silver volume which can only be the result of a departure from these markets of customers willing to sell their metal at inappropriately low prices. The remainder of trades are "Official" in nature. The LBMA represents, to an increasing degree, the trades of central banks.

Belgian rightly asks who will benefit when the manipulation stops? The answer depends upon who can wrest legal ownership of all the loaned gold [12,000 - 15,000 tonnes]. A morass of legal filings, a cloud of confusion can be imagined.

in the end for people here and possibly some bright hedge funds, actual ownership of gold is the ticket to wealth preservation. Who wants to immerse themselves in a claims battle over leased gold or possession rights to an options contract? Whatever profits garnered from options may be eaten up by legal expenses or lost altogether due to a COMEX default.

The simultaneous devaluation of World currencies via inflation is upon us, therefore Gold`s price will [And IS rising rise in all currencies as measured by the Dollar Index price of gold].

I have been very interested in detecting any new facts that may add to the mystery of cabal tactics. I place some extra weight on HSBC`s recent decision to exit Hong Kong gold trading last week. My conclusion is that they did this because they value their considerable physical holdings greater than the current market prices...this is the exact mechanism that is contributing to a fall in LBMA gold volume.

If HSBC is unwilling to sell gold at today`s prices then we can be sure that other central banks are unwilling too. That leads us to the further conclusion that a strategy may exist to somehow mitigate this situation and lead to a near-term rise in the price of gold [If there is already in place a cabal strategy of gradual POG rises, then HSBC would simply adhere to it instead of departing the gold trade in Hong Kong].

As time passes there is more and more information available to undercut the cabal`s manipulation efforts. It is that information accumulation that attracts more and more speculators to the COMEX and LBMA to drive POG higher. It is an inexorable process that is known as the free market

[ThaiGuru]

@anonymst

Zu Deiner Frage wegen dem Euro Einbruch von heute, in der Handelsarmen Zeit wie Du schreibst.

Die genauen Gründe dafür, kenne ich genauso wenig wie Du.
Vermutungen hätte ich zwar einige, doch das hilft Dir sicher auch nicht viel weiter.

Falls ich heute noch eine Meldung von Devisenfachleuten dazu im Internet vorfinde, setzte ich sie Dir hier in den Thread rein.

In der Zwischenzeit, schau Dich doch mal im WBoard bei "Internationale Währungen" um, vielleicht findest Du dort Deine gewünschte Antwort schneller als bei mir.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

In My Opinion

Kenneth Rogoff, Director of the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund

Predicts

(Even though he does not realize it)


A Significantly Lower US Dollar in

The Economist, August 3rd, 2002 on page#62


Confirmed Thursday September 12th by

Mr. Greenspan, Chairman of the

US Federal Reserve System


By James Sinclair


Mr. Rogoff, in an interview with the Economist magazine was asked to survey the challenges facing the global financial system at the start of the 21st century. He listed as number one, the Growing Current Account imbalances which we know means the United States. He rightly said " Rapid current Account reversals are often accompanied by sharp and potentially disruptive adjustments in exchange rates or, worse patterns of growth. But at the same time we begin to think ahead it becomes obvious that the real challenge is not to reduce the Current Account imbalance but to find ways to sustain bigger ones, albeit properly directed."

Last week in public testimony Mr. Greenspan warned of the danger of two additional deficits. Although the press put emphasis on the US Budget Deficit, he warned again of a continued and larger US Balance of Trade Deficit.

The fundamental equation for a lower dollar (USDX) is a growing US Trade Deficit that fuels a growing US Current Account Deficit in the environment of US fiscal mismanagement called a growing US Budget Deficit.

Therefore, IMO, hang on to your hat, dollar-wise. The dollar is far from it low in this long-term US dollar Bear Market. More than likely, the US dollar has a 21-month window in time in which it could put on a show like the NASDOG collapse. Few establishment economists thought such a collapse of share values was possible in the NASDOG. The same people do not now believe a further and deeper collapse than already witnessed in the US dollar (From 122 on the USDX to 104 on the same measure, now trading at 107.75) is possible in the dollar. It is.

Because the dollar can fundamentally and technically go significantly lower, a top should be forming now in US Treasury instruments which portends, higher, not lower interest rates in 2003. That is the next logical step in the fundamental progression of expanding Trade Balance/Current Account Balance/Budget Deficit scenario. Watch Technical Analysis in the USDX now as we have a Fundamental view confirmed.

As always, Fundamental analysis first, timed by Technical analysis. One without the other is an accident looking to happen!

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

@anonymst

Hier habe ich für Dich noch einen Chart, wo Du sehr gut den Werteverfall des Dollars in den letzten 2 Jahren sehen kannst. Und dieser Wertzerfall des Dollars wird weitergehen, auch wenn einige Zentralbanken glauben vorübergehend noch etwas stützend intervenieren (manipulieren)zu können.

[ThaiGuru]

Noch viel besser als der Dollar Chart, gefällt mir dieser 2 Jahres Goldpreis Chart.

Eigentlich unglaublich, dass Gold immer noch von den meisten
Anlageberatern und Banken, wenn überhaupt, nur am Rande ihren Kunden empfohlen wird.

[ThaiGuru]

Und so sieht unser 2 Jahres Silber Chart aus.

Eigentlich nicht zu glauben bei diesen positiven Fundamentaldaten!

[tamara93]

Aus der FTD vom 16.9.2002
Edelmetallmarkt: Irak-Krise bestimmt den Goldhandel
Von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach

Erneut haben politische Faktoren das Geschehen am Goldmarkt diktiert. Die Angst vor Zwischenfällen am Jahrestag der Terroranschläge trieb den Goldpreis bereits am vergangenen Montag auf ein Wochenhoch von 324 $ je Feinunze.

Die New Yorker Comex verzeichnete einen starken Anstieg bei Pluspositionen. Nachdem der 11. September ohne Zwischenfälle verlief, fiel Gold wieder zurück bis auf das Wochentief bei 314,70 $. Unterstützung erhielt das Edelmetall am Donnerstag im Vorfeld der Rede von US-Präsident George W. Bush vor den Vereinten Nationen zum Thema Irak und notierte erneut zeitweise bei 320 $. Bis Wochenschluss verlor Gold aber wieder bis auf 316,50 $.

Die südafrikanische Goldproduktion sinkt unterdessen weiter. Gegenüber dem Vorjahr meldete "Statistics South Africa" für den Zeitraum Januar bis Juli eine Verringerung der Produktion um 0,8 Prozent.


In dieser Woche bleibt Gold im Spannungsfeld der unsicheren politischen Lage und eigener Fundamentaldaten. Da die unverändert positiven Impulse von politischer Seite bereits teilweise eingepreist sind, dürfte Gold zwischen 312 und 321 $ notieren. Analysten schließen aber auch einen Test des unteren Endes der Handelsspanne nicht aus.


Silber folgte im Wochenverlauf der Entwicklung am Goldmarkt. Ungeachtet durchwachsener Konjunkturdaten und der Verbilligung der Buntmetalle nach der Bush-Rede stieg Silber im Wochenvergleich auf Basis des Londoner Fixings um 0,06 auf 4,59 $.


Die Industrie beginnt jetzt, ihren Platinbedarf für die nächsten Monate abzusichern, wodurch das Edelmetall bis auf 561,50 $ kletterte. Derzeit scheint sich Platin zwischen 540 und 560 $ einzupendeln. Händler berichten von stabiler Nachfrage durch die chinesische Schmuckindustrie, die die schlechten Autoverkaufszahlen und den somit sinkenden Platinverbrauch ausgleichen dürften. Von der am Montag in New York beginnenden Platinwoche werden Erkenntnisse über die Förderquotenpläne der Minengesellschaften erwartet.


Palladium bewegte sich kaum. Marktteilnehmer rechnen wegen der lange zurückgehaltenen russischen Exporte mit Verlusten bis unter 300 $. Am Freitag schloss Palladium mit 333 $.


Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach leitet den Edelmetall- und Rohstoffhandel bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.



© 2002 Financial Times Deutschland

URL des Artikels: http://www.ftd.de/bm/ga/1032093205061.html

[anonymst]

Danke Dir sehr ThaiGuru.

Ich bin auch sehr Deiner Meinung vom Anstieg des Goldes - nicht zuletzt dank der feinen Moderation dieses Threads.

Und da Gold und Dollar ziemlich negativ korrelieren, bin ich auch guter Dinge was die Entwicklung meiner langlaufenden Euro-Calls anbelangt...

Mach weiter so.

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Working Group on Financial Markets was working overtime today. Every major stock market index was lower in the morning until they came in for their predictable Dow rescue. Whenever JP Morgan is in real trouble (see news below), the PPT supports the Dow futures to bring in share buying for Morgan. I have reported on this happening for two months. When they support the Dow futures, arbitrageurs buy the Dow stocks (Morgan is one) and sell Dow futures (which have become expensive relative to the underlying Dow stocks). Even with this Dow buying, Morgan still closed at $21.71, down 33 cents. The PPT is only delaying the inevitable. Morgan is in deep trouble and ought to be hit with a credit downgrade at any time.

Meanwhile, the DOG is headed for oblivion. Invest for the long-term, the long-term graveyard that is. The NASDOG closed at 1276, down 15, with the bellwether SOX Index closing in 4-year low ground at 269.22, down 11.30.

Lawrence Lindsey, economic advisor to the President, said today that a war with Iraq might cost $200 billion. President Bush was in Iowa calling for Federal spending discipline?????? Who and what gets left out?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

September 16 - Gold $317.20 up 70 cents - Silver $4.55 unchanged

Hung Fat and Dr. No Hold $315 / Lines in the Sand

Gold Cartel attempts to break gold failed once again as Morgan Stanley showed up as a strong buyer to lead gold back after it briefly touched $314.90 early in the Comex session. Morgan S. is a big firm. I have no clue for whom they might be doing their buying. I do know that whenever gold has moved up strongly the past few weeks during the U.S. trading sessions, Morgan Stanley has been THE aggressive buyer. Some big gold buyer (a Hung Fat and Dr. No combo?) is going through MS and is making life very uncomfortable for The Gold Cartel.

From Brad, GATA’s man at DFW airport:

Bill,
"Troops on the move, with guns. SFS { Special Forces }?"

On that note, a reflection on war, the dollar, oil and gold:

John Bridges, a JP Morgan Chase gold analyst, was on CNBC this morning and was queried regarding his thoughts on the future of the price of gold. He tied it to the coming war and to the dollar. I am told by many people that know John that he is a real good man and very smart, but is continually told to tone down his bullish gold views by the higher ups at Morgan. Of course, we know why that is the case.

Bridge’s reticence to speak his mind on what he really thinks is coming for the gold price is understandable. He wants to keep his job. The last "Morgan" guy to talk up gold in a major way was Morgan Stanley’s global strategist, Barton Biggs. That was on a Friday with gold at $324. By the following Monday, The Gold Cartel put him back on CNBC to do a dancing bear act. He claimed he really did not understand the gold market and that his views should not be taken seriously. Two weeks later, gold had dropped $20. Biggs, who had committed hearsay by actually mentioning $500 for a possible gold price, saved face and his future "A Team Party Invitations" with elitist Wall Street cabal forces.

And who can forget Doug Cliggott, former JP Morgan Chase’s economist, one of the most bearish economists and most accurate on Wall Street? For being right, Cliggott was canned and is no longer with JPM.

Bridges mentioned that if the dollar were to be hit hard, gold would be a place to be and it also would be the place to be if the coming Iraq war went badly. He also went on to say that producer covering of hedges was a major support for the price of gold year-to-date.

Two important points:

*The dollar and gold: Yes, a weakening dollar can only be a plus for the price of gold to move higher. But, it is irrelevant compared to the price rigging. In 1993 the price of gold soared and the dollar was very firm.

*Gold is going to run higher no matter how a possible war with Iraq turns out. I think most people looking at the war scenario have it very wrong as far as gold goes. What we are facing now is a completely different situation than what the Gulf War was all about. Iraq invaded Kuwait back then and there was a fear they would move on Saudi Arabia. There was also a great fear that the oil fields might be blown up. Oil prices soared ahead of the U.S. counterattack in case that kind of bad case scenario became reality. As soon as the war started and it was apparent that Iraq would be quickly routed, the price of oil crashed.

That is not the case today in the event the U.S. moves on Iraq. Even if Iraq falls quickly, then what? The major problem the U.S. faces concerns the crazed Muslim terrorists. A U.S. invasion of Iraq will only inflame this problem in the Arab world, not diffuse it. The terrorist problem is likely to increase, not decrease. Can the major oil fields in the Mid East be protected in the years to come from terrorist sabotage?

In addition, the worst fear back in the Gulf War was that some of the oilfields might be nuked in some way. If that were to occur, that radioactive oil would probably be unusable for 100 years. The fear then was that oil could rise to $100 per barrel and would cause a worldwide depression. That nightmare might be more likely to happen in the future should we invade Iraq, not less.

Even in the best-case scenario for the U.S. in an ill-conceived Iraq war, it still could inflame these terrorists to go after U.S. oil supply. That threat and the threat of terrorist activity in general will not diminish no matter what happens in Iraq. Therefore, I suspect the demand for gold will increase no matter what happens. That increased demand is going to strain The Gold Cartel’s ability to continue their price rigging operations.

Meanwhile, the Afghans are already complaining the U.S. is not coming though with billions of $ promised to rebuild their country. Now, President Bush is planning on destroying much of Baghdad`s infrastructure. How much of that region are we going to bomb, promise to rebuild and then renege on our promises?

Pile that nightmare on top of what the U.S. is doing to Africa. Bush gave a speech this morning in Iowa and spoke of compassion. Right before he spoke, the UN announced that the famine problem in sub-Saharan Africa was on the increase and 14 million Africans are facing starvation. Compassionate Bush is one of the culprits behind this problem via his role in the suppression of the gold price. I consider him to be a menace to humankind.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Heute morgen in Asien!

Die Börsen sind im Aufwind. Fast alle asiatischen Boersen im schwarzen Bereich. Ich vermute, dass an der in ca. 45 Minuten öffnenden Thai Boerse SET, heute zur Abwechslung mal eine kleine Ralley abgehen wird, nachdem wir hier am SET die letzten Tage fast nur rote Farbe gesehen haben.

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Gold:

Anhand des Gold Preis Chartes könnt Ihr sofort unschwer erkennen was hier heute vorgegangen ist. Weitere KOmmentare dazu will ich mir ersparen. Nur soviel, es ist ein Chartbild, dass ich seit ich die Goldpreis Bewegungen in Asien verfolge, so noch nie erlebt habe.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/reuters/asia-125571.html

Tuesday September 17, 9:17 AM

Oil prices slide and dollar surges on Iraq offer

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Iraq`s agreement to re-admit arms inspectors without conditions sent oil and gold prices tumbling on Tuesday and lifted the dollar and shares on hopes the move would avert a U.S. military strike.

U.S. equity futures jumped and the dollar spiked to a three-month high of 122.49 yen after the United Nations said it had received a letter from Iraq bowing to world diplomatic pressure.

The weaker yen in turn helped drive Japanese stocks three percent higher as investors snapped up shares in exporters. Other Asian bourses also opened with gains.

But it was oil prices that showed the most dramatic reaction, falling almost five percent. U.S. crude slid as much as $1.42 a barrel to $28.25 and was trading at $28.50 at 0055 GMT, comfortably below recent 19-month highs above $30.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Iraq has agreed to re-admit U.N. weapons inspectors without conditions after a nearly four-year hiatus.

The White House said a U.N. Security Council resolution requiring that Iraq disarm was still needed.

The news pushed gold prices down to $314 an ounce versus a late New York price of $317.45.

Tokyo`s benchmark Nikkei stock average was up 3.02 percent or 278.71 points at 9,520.64 by 0108 GMT.

"The Tokyo market is reacting positively to the Iraqi move and subsequent climb for Nasdaq futures," said Hiroaki Kuramochi, head of equities at Credit Lyonnais. "But we have to be careful since the U.S. is showing a cautious stance."

South Korea`s KOSPI index was up 1.29 percent at 713.44, while Singapore`s Straits Times benchmark opened up 0.60 percent at 1,451.25.

[axelkitzing]

#1905 von ThaiGuru

Und welche Schlüsse ziehst du daraus ???

Gruß Axel

[ThaiGuru]

@axelkitzing

Das der Goldpreis und die Goldaktien, heute vermutlich eins aufs Dach kriegen werden. Dass das Gold Cabal diese (vorübergehende) Beruhigung der Kriegsangst, USA-Irak, in Sydney sofort ausgenutzt hat, und auch noch weiter versuchen wird diese neue "Friedensliebe" und den "uneingeschränkten Kooperationswillen" Sadams mit den vereinten Nationen auszunutzen, davon kann ausgegangen werden.

Auch jeden Fall, möchte ich damit nicht zum Ausdruck bringen, dass ich jetzt verkaufen werde,
Im Gegenteil. Eine eventuelle temporäre Goldpreis Schwäche, werde ich für weitere Aktien Käufe nutzen.

Was heute abend in den USA mit den Goldaktien Preisen passiert, werden wir ja erleben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[niemandweiss]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[niemandweiss]

aus der heutigen NZZ:

Erklärung des Weissen Hauses

(ap) Die USA haben das irakische Angebot zur bedingungslosen Rückkehr der Uno-Waffeninspektoren zurückgewiesen. In einer Erklärung des Weissen Hauses wurde der Schritt am Montagabend als taktisches Manöver bezeichnet, mit der Irak entschiedene Massnahmen des Weltsicherheitsrates vermeiden wolle. Diese Taktik werde fehlschlagen, hiess es.

Die amerikanische Regierung forderte erneut eine «wirkungsvolle» Resolution des Sicherheitsrates der Vereinten Nationen, um der Bedrohung entgegenzutreten, die von Saddam Hussein für das irakische Volk, die Region und die Welt ausgehe. Dies sei keine Sache von Inspektionen, hiess es in der Erklärung weiter. Es gehe vielmehr um die Zerstörung der irakischen Massenvernichtungswaffen und die Einhaltung aller Resolutionen des Weltsicherheitsrates.

@trilog, weshalb? Seit Juli hab ich kein reines Bärendepot mehr, long Langweile war schon vorher Motto. Und nun einmal auf die Michels zocken, dem ganzen gebe ich bis Ende Woche, dann beginnt Warnsaison. Sprich: Im Idealfall Zertis oben ausladen und auf Erholung Puttis warten. Aktien können steigen oder fallen, meist machen sie in der Marktbreite beides... Buy Low, sell High, auch wenn die Puttis mal vier Wochen warten müssen wie ab erster Augustwoche....

--

euro /gold (blau)

[ThaiGuru]

Irgendwie will das Gold immer wieder nach oben, trotz den Abverkäufen in Asien heute morgen.

Bin wirklich gespannt auf die USA heute!

@niemandweiss

Danke Dir für die von Dir in deutscher Spache geposteten aktuellen Berichte.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[siam123]

danke auch , ein bisschen mehr in deutscher Sprache ,

ist ganz hilfreich .


mfG,


siam123

[niemandweiss]

ftd.de, Di, 17.9.2002, 7:30, aktualisiert: Di, 17.9.2002, 12:36
Geteiltes Echo im Sicherheitsrat auf Irak-Angebot

http://www.ftd.de/pw/in/1032113053858.html?nv=hptn

[keepitshort]

Quelle:
http://www.mis.dresdner-bank.de/

Beim crude-oil sieht man doch die Reaktion am besten.

Wer kann mir das Kürzel für den Rohöl-future
bei www.comdirect.com nennen, ich finde es einfach nicht.

[kaepntnemo]

wieder mal was ueber gold & china,
4 chinesische banken sind 2002 designiert, den impex-handel mit gold, fuer uns wichig speziell die ca. 200 tonnen nachfrageueberschuss, abzuwicklen. volumen ca. 20 milliarden rmb.

@siam: Leider wieder in englisch...

http://library.northernlight.com/FB20020917610000036.html?cb…
<zitat>

4 Banks Obtained the Priority Import and Export Gold Rights

Story Filed: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 6:07 AM EST

CHINA, Sep 17, 2002 (AsiaPort via COMTEX) -- The total gold demand of China in 2002 will be 400 tons. Since the current annual goldproductivity of China is no more than 200 tons, the gold importof our country in this year will be RMB 20 billions. With China`sentry into the WTO, local gold market will be open and the tariff will be cut down.

It is reported that People`s Bank of China is planning to entitle the four state owned commercial banks the priority of takingimport and export trade of gold. It is said, this has beenapproved by related department according to sources unrevealed.

State Council, People`s Bank of China, State Gold Bureau, Ministry of Finance, and State Administration of Taxation are discussing the gold import and export rights of commercial banks and the currency purchasing plan of the gold import business. In addition, with the request of Shanghai Gold Exchange, the 1% free of value-added tax policy according to international convention is also approved. The approved documents have been forwarded to State Administration of Taxation and Ministry of Finance. The detailed plan will be stipulated by Ministry of Finance.

From GD-HK Information Daily, Page 8, Monday, September 16, 2002
[e-mail]
Copyright (C) 2002 Alestron, All rights reserved


KEYWORD: CHINA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Marketing
Investment
SUBJECT CODE: Financial and Securities

Copyright © 2002, Asiaport Daily News, all rights reserved.
</zitat>

-nemo-

[ThaiGuru]

Heute war wirklich ein toller, und spannender Tag!

Die Thai Börse steigt um über 2%

Das Gold wird am Morgen abverkauft in Asien, und es sieht aus wie die Goldcabalisten heute Obsiegen würden. Doch schon nach einigen Stunden wird klar, dass Gold trotzden wieder steigt. Wieviel wird wohl das Gold Kartell heute verspielt haben? Alle diese Papier Gold Shortverkäufe bei 16.-/15.-/14.- Dollar?

Und jetzt trotzden wieder auf über 317.- Dollar pro Unze!

Der Gold Preis fällt, und schon taucht nach einer von mehreren Gesichtsverlust Pausen, einer meiner besten "Freunde" im WGoldboard, die Romanfigur "ribaldcorello" wieder auf, und giftelt in neuer Frische gegen mich rum. Wobei er meine User ID jedoch nicht namentlich genannt hatte, in seinem heutigen Posting im Gold Pessimisten Thread "Vorsicht vor Gold und Minen". Vor Gold und Gold-Minen hat er schon gewarnt als Gold erst bei ca. 270.- Dollar stand, und z. Bsp. eine DROOY noch nicht einmal 2.40$ gekostet hat. Die Harmony Gold, koste damals ca. 7.-$, und eine Bema Gold war noch für 0.50$ zu haben, wenn ich mich recht erinnere.

Doch oha, jetzt ist er plötzlich nach dem Gold, auch noch ein Silber Kritiker geworden. Jetzt wo sich ein Silber engagement (physisch) eigentlich auf diesem 25 Jahres Tiefstpreis Nivau geradezu als Jahrhundert Chance anbietet, warnst Du vor dem Silber. Wenn das nur mal gut geht Ribaldolino.

Mein ganz "inniger Freund" der obrigkeitshörige "Xnickel", ach wenn Ihr wüsstet was der einmal über die Obrigkeit geschrieben hatte, Ihr würdet es vermutlich kaum glauben, ist auch wieder aktiv geworden. Sein Gold soll er auf dem absoluten Höchstkurs verkauft haben, schrieb er in einem Posting von heute.

Ja und dann wurde da noch "ala Ribaldcorello" ein neue Pessimisten Threadüberschrift zu Silber, von "kilbi" dem früheren Silber Bullen eröffnet. Danach wird sich Silber sicher sofort im Preis um 50% reduzieren, zumindest wenn man dem Author einer im Thread geposteten "Analyse" glauben schenkt.


Heute ist eigentlich ein selten schöner, und erfolgreicher Tag gewesen, der mir viel Spass gemacht hat, auch wenn es zu beginn des Tages noch sehr düster aussah.

Jetzt gehe ich diesen Tag noch eine Runde feiern.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Komme gerade zurück und wollte noch schnell die Tagesberichte von GATA durchsehen, und zu meiner Freude sehe ich eine weitere freudige Meldung.

Unserem Gold Cabal Member Numero Uno, der JP-Morgan, geht es schlechter, und JPM vermeltet, dass es bald noch schlechter gehen würde. Das tönt jetzt zwar etwas bösartig, doch ich könnte die Wände hochspringen vor Freude, oder eher mehr noch vor Schadenfreude.

Und das ist erst der Anfang vom Ende der JPM, zumindest so wie sie heute existiert, davon bin ich überzeugt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News

09/17 17:29
J.P. Morgan Lowers Profit Forecast on Loan Losses

By Michael Nol


New York, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank, lowered its forecast for third-quarter profit because of a rise in loan defaults by telecommunications and cable companies and a plunge in trading revenue.

Third-quarter profit from operations will fall ``well below`` the 58 cents per share earned in the second quarter, the bank said in a statement. The bank`s credit rating was cut one level to A+ by Standard & Poor`s.

``We are very disappointed with these results,`` J.P. Morgan Chief Executive Officer William Harrison said in a statement.

J.P. Morgan`s revised forecast follows a drop in net income in six of the seven quarters since it was created through the $32 billion merger of Chase Manhattan Corp. and J.P. Morgan & Co. at the end of 2000. The bank, the world`s biggest arranger of syndicated loans and a top underwriter of corporate bonds, has been hit by Enron Corp.`s bankruptcy, loan losses from the failure of companies such as Global Crossing Ltd. and Argentina`s debt default.

The bank faced another setback last week when a federal judge rejected J.P. Morgan`s claims of fraud against 11 insurers as part of an effort to collect $965 million for losses on gas and oil trades with Enron.

Loan losses will total about $1.4 billion in the three months ending Sept. 30, an increase from $302 million in the previous quarter, the bank said.

Eye on the Ball

``You just wonder with the merger whether top management`s eye was taken off the ball at the exact time when these problems started to brew,`` said Michael Santelli, who helps manage the $700 million Armada Large Cap Value Fund, about 1.75 percent of which is J.P. Morgan shares.

J.P. Morgan shares, which have dropped 40.7 percent this year, the worst performer in the Philadelphia KBW index of U.S. banks, fell 16 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $21.55 in New York Stock Exchange trading. The stock declined to $19.70 in trading at 5:14 p.m. after the stock exchange`s close.

The bank`s trading revenue in July and August was about $100 million, compared with $1.1 billion for all of the second quarter. The company cited ``less favorable results from trading positions in a challenging market environment`` for the decline.

``We lost money on position take across our dealer books,`` Chief Financial Officer Dina Dublon said on a conference call with investors. ``We also had a loss in our proprietary trading desk.``

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had forecast the New York- based bank would post earnings per share of 54 cents in the third quarter.

[ThaiGuru]

Und schaut Euch doch den Gold Preis Chart an, Gold will nach oben, und steht zur Zeit dieses Postings bereits wieder auf 318.35 Dollar pro Unze.

Schade ist nur dass die Goldkurse dies heute nicht mehr mitbekommen können.

Dann halt vielleicht erst morgen!

[ThaiGuru]

Und es geht schon wieder los!

[ThaiGuru]

September 17- Gold $316.80 down 40 cents - Silver $4.57 up 2 cents

The Sinking of the U.S.S. Titanic

What a day! The Gold Cartel uses every time zone and news announcement possible to take gold lower whenever they can. It does not matter how obvious their tactic has become, they still go with it because they are desperate.
As soon as the Iraq offer to let the weapons inspectors in their country on an unconditional basis was announced, the cabal went to work, quickly taking gold down close to $4. That pressure abated through the night, but picked up again during U.S. trading. What else is new? However, the U.S. stock market quickly gave up its relief rally and plunged lower, as the U.S. economic news continues to deteriorate. Gold charged all the way back, but was not allowed to go above unchanged. The cabal could not allow a dramatic technical reversal, which might have created undo attention to gold.

However, the gold flag formation I pointed out yesterday grew a bit more elongated and also more bullish. When gold clears $220, it should take off. The Hung Fat and Dr. No crowd were all over gold on dips over the past 24 hours. Staunch physical demand for gold by huge hedge funds continues to throw a monkey wrench in the Gold Cartel’s rigging operations.

There was a good deal of gold news to digest. First, Reuters, or someone, completely screwed up a Newmont press release. This is the essence of what was first reported.

LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) -- Australian gold producer Normandy, owned by world number one gold miner Newmont Mining Corp., on Tuesday said Newmont would eliminate its hedge book by February next year.
"Newmont has completed a restructure of its hedge book, reducing total hedging by 1.1 million ounces since 31 December 2001, and has implemented a new hedging policy that will result in elimination of the company`s remaining hedge book of 300,000 ounces by February 2003," the firm said in a statement released in Australia. – END-
The news report created the impression Newmont was going to live up to its word to shareholders and eliminate its hedge book. However, since they still had 6.6 million ounces on their books at the end of the second quarter, this made little sense to me. I called Ed Steer to query him and he called Newmont. It turns out this was a Newmont subsidiary in Australia that was closing out its book. While still nice to see, it still leaves NEWMONT in the SIZEABLE hedging camp. If you want to stay clear of big hedgers, stay away from Newmont. Their hedge book was a negative $364 million at the end of the second quarter. What will it be when gold explodes?


Why is Newmont pussyfooting around with their hedge book and not doing what they said they would do? The only two answers I come up with is they did not realize how toxic the hedgebook was when they took over Normandy, or, as you will recall from a recent Midas, I hinted maybe they received a called from the cordial U.S. Department of Interior regarding their U.S. mining properties.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

What has happened to our government? They are crapping all over the Indians in this country and the blacks in sub-Saharan Africa AND they are doing it on purpose, while violating U.S. laws in the process. What vile folk.

Catherine Austin Fitts, former Managing Director at highly regarded investment house Dillon Read, Assistant HUD Secretary in the first Bush Administration and veteran Café member, puts it this way"

"The US Treasury and its depository the New York Fed are not managing monies in accordance with the laws applicable to them and are not trustworthy to serve as fiduciaries for US assets --- whether gold, tax receipts, or special funds such as the Interior funds. The United States federal government is for all intents and purposes organized around slush fund operations outside of the control of the Congress and the Constitution. When a government does not control its finances or its computer, accounting and payments systems, there is no government. As a practical matter, the time has come to dispense with the myth. We have only one vote that counts. That is our vote in the marketplace to purchase, to deposit, to invest and otherwise chose the people and organizations with whom we associate."

Barrick Gold was making noise today too:

"Barrick plans to reduce its forward sales position by one-third, to 12 million ounces from 17.9 million, by end of 2003. This would equate to 15 percent of the company`s current gold reserves as compared to 22 percent today."

Down to 12 million ounces by the end of NEXT year. They sure are in a rush. At that rate, look for them to reduce their hedge book to zero by the year 2020.

While not what they should be, these Newmont and Barrick buybacks still exert more and more pressure on The Gold Cartel to come up with gold supply to make up for these reductions.

Meanwhile, as reported here often, mine supply continues to dwindle, which is also compounding the cabal’s problems:

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Gold output on slippery slope

Reuters

September 17 2002 at 08:22AM

London - Production levels at gold mines might not be sustainable because of depleted reserves at mature North American mine operations and a fall in new mines due on stream, a leading mine research group said yesterday.

"Initial estimates for global gold mine production point to a significant fall during the first half of 2002 ... One of the major causes is that output tumbled in Indonesia," London-based Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) said in a statement.

Lower grades at mining operations in the US state of Nevada were expected to have left output "considerably lower" year on year to leave total US output at levels last recorded a decade ago.

GFMS gave no figures on mine output levels but said it would finalise and publish details of its survey at a presentation of its global gold survey on September 24.

The GFMS survey would support research by Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors, which in April forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Beacon estimated world supply of mined gold might plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rallied and prompted miners to bring untapped deposits on stream.

Beacon Group`s modelling showed global output below 60 million ounces (1.7 million kilogrammes) by 2010, down from its current levels of about 83 million, if bullion prices averaged $275.

Even projections based on a price of $300 and incorporating planned new mine developments showed output falling sharply after 2006 to post a 22 percent drop from current levels.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.84, PM $2.65; PM yesterday $1.90, with world gold at $315.20, $314, and $316.50 respectively. Well above (today) and slightly above (yesterday) legal import point. Several of the bullion bank commentators mention "good support from the physical sector" (Standard London): as currently configured, the gold/dollar/FX relationships would seem to make prolonged gold softness below $315 unlikely.

As anticipated on Friday, the abrupt collapse of the yen galvanized Japanese Tocom operators returning after their long weekend: volume leapt 62% to the equivalent of 35,911 Comex contracts, a rather heavy day. But the hammering gold took late Friday, and again during the graveyard shift early this morning (odd time to try unloading a lot of gold) inhibited the Japanese: although the active contract did rise 11 yen the discouraging sight of $US prices down by more than $3 unnerved some traders and open interest fell an amount equal to 1,204 Comex lots. (NY traded an estimated 24,000 lots yesterday.) The combination of a softening yen and a firming gold price is likely to be very positive for gold.

Further evidence of the sweeping nature of the victory of gold-price sensitive shareholders over salary-collecting gold company bureaucrats is furnished by the hedge reduction pronouncements by Barrick and Newmont today. (Although the deviousness of either management should not be under estimated.) A welter of data from the new GFMS-controlled WGC "Gold Demand Trends, however highlights a serious adverse trend. The deplorable loss of the independence of the WGC’s voice is already having detrimental effects: UBS Warburg notes the introduction of a traditional GFMS fudging tactic when it observes:

"We are interested in the reported decline in investment as, at first glance, this is not substantiated by our own activities"

Having thought this development over, the most plausible conclusion is that Mr. Chris Thompson, having parlayed involvement in a far from stellar private North American gold investment pool into Chairmanship of Goldfields and the WGC, now has ambitions to become a board member of a major international bank.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Mittwoch 18.09.2002, MEZ 15:08

18. September 2002 13:43

Blair will weiter Druck auf Saddam Hussein ausüben

LONDON - Der britische Premierminister Tony Blair hat die internationale Staatengemeinschaft aufgefordert, trotz des Einlenkens des Irak in der Frage der Waffeninspektionen den Druck auf das Regime von Saddam Hussein fortzusetzen.
«Es kann keinen Zweifel daran geben, er hat es nur getan, weil er unter Druck kam. Er hat uns seit Jahren an der Nase herum geführt», sagte Blair in London vor Journalisten. Am Vortag hatte Aussenminister Jack Straw gefordert, es müsse trotz der Ankündigung von Saddam eine neue UNO-Resolution zum Irak geben.

Nach Ansicht von Blair ist es jetzt es wichtig sicherzustellen, dass die Expertenteams nicht nur hereingelassen würden, sondern ihre Arbeit auch ungehindert verrichten könnten.

In Rom begrüsste indessen Papst Johannes Paul II. die Bereitschaft Bagdads, wieder UNO-Waffenkontrolleure ins Land zu lassen. Dies sei «eine gute Nachricht», sagte das Oberhaupt der katholischen Kirche. Es sei zu hoffen, dass Krieg und Gewalt verhindert werden könnten. Ein Krieg würde «die ganze Region des Nahen Ostens erschüttern». 181342 sep


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mw/breaking/?show=27378

Gold mine production levels unsustainable – GFMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current gold mine production levels may not be sustainable because of depleted reserves at mature North American mine operations and a fall in new mines due on stream, a leading mine research group said on Monday.

"Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) now believe that the world`s current mine production levels may not be sustainable," the company said.

"Initial estimates for global gold mine production point to a significant fall during the first half of 2002...one of the major causes is that output tumbled in Indonesia," London-based GFMS said in a statement.

Lower grades at mining operations in the US state of Nevada were expected to have left output "considerably lower" year-on-year to leave total US output at levels last recorded a decade ago.

GFMS gave no figures on mine output levels, but said it would finalise and publish details of its survey at a presentation of its global gold survey on September 24.

GFMS survey would support research by Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors, which in April forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Beacon estimated that world supply of mined gold may could plummet by nearly 30% by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream.

Beacon Group`s modeling showed global output below 60-million ounces by 2010, down from current levels around 83-million, if bullion prices averaged $275.

Even projections based on a price of $300 and incorporating planned new mine developments showed output falling sharply after 2006 to post a 22% drop from current levels. – Reuters.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1…

18/09/2002 14:13 - (SA)

Gold gains as stocks fall

Steven Swindells

London - Gold rose on Wednesday as European stock markets dived, reversing losses in the previous session made in the wake of Iraq`s offer to open its doors to United Nations weapons inspectors.

Spot gold was quoted at US$317.60/318.10 an ounce by 11:50, up from $317.00/317.50 an ounce at the New York close on Tuesday and 10% higher than this time last year.

Steep losses in European stock markets and uncertainty over the next phase of Washington`s determination to usher in a "regime change" in Iraq fanned the gains.

"Gold continues to trade edgily as US-Iraq political tension continues to ebb and flow. We expect further volatile trading through the rest of September as this issue continues to dominate markets and keep liquidity below normal levels," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.

Gold traditionally gains in times of war or hefty losses in financial markets.

Silver was quoted unchanged from New York levels on Tuesday at $4.58/4.60 an ounce.



****************************************************************************************************************************************************
"Against our expectation silver speculators continue to get shorter (of) the metal and this, we believe, is setting the market up for a sharp rally at some point in the coming months," said UBS Warburg`s Reade.
****************************************************************************************************************************************************


Platinum was quoted at $550.00/554.00 an ounce by 11:50, up from $547.00/552.00 at Tuesday`s close in New York while palladium was quoted at $332.00/338.00 from $332.50/344.50.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_sessi…

Sep. 18, 01:00 EDT

Barrick to increase bullion production

Gold miner seizes on higher prices, reduces hedging

Amy Carmichael

Canadian Press

Moving to capitalize on gold`s resurgence, Barrick Gold Corp. has announced a five-year, $2 billion (U.S.) plan aimed at doubling its profits by 2006.

The Toronto-headquartered global company is also cutting its gold-price hedging again, by one-third, to take advantage of spot-market prices.

With a possible U.S. attack against Iraq looming, the world gold price has been cruising well above $300.

The spot price of bullion dropped by more than $3 an ounce immediately after Iraq`s decision to readmit United Nations weapons inspectors.

It later revived to close yesterday in New York at $317 an ounce, down 10 cents.

Barrick chief executive Randall Oliphant said in conference call yesterday that the company is "the only major gold producer with a plan to increase production."

"The unique position we are in today is the culmination of our focus on acquiring quality mines and exploration and development properties during a period of weak gold prices, and developing them as gold prices strengthen, using our development expertise."

The $2 billion plan calls for an average 2 million ounces of additional annual gold production for the first 10 years at expected cash costs of $125 an ounce — 29 per cent lower than current production costs.

The new gold will come from mines in Argentina, Australia and Peru. Two are scheduled to begin production in 2005, one in 2006 and one in 2008.

Oliphant said he expects the properties can sustain output of 2 million ounces a year for at least a decade and, while the company will continue to investigate new properties, its focus will be on developing the four new mines.

Barrick`s annual production is expected to rise by 1.2 million ounces to 6.9 million ounces in 2006 — at lower costs. The company is targeting a doubling of earnings by 2006, based on a gold price of $325 an ounce.

"Under our plan, our rate of return will be 14 per cent at $325 gold and 11 per cent at $300 gold," Oliphant said. "In other words, even at a lower gold price, we`ll be well above cost of capital."

John Ing, gold analyst and president of Maison Placements Canada, said the announcement is good for Barrick and the industry.

"Rather than go out and blow their brains out and spend possibly $200 an ounce, they think that they can develop ounces at $100 an ounce," Ing said. "It makes a lot of sense and it`s part of their organic growth."

Barrick is also cutting its forward-sales position from 17.9 million ounces now to a target of 12 million ounces by the end of next year.

That equates to 15 per cent of the firm`s gold reserves, down from 22 per cent now.

Ing said Barrick`s decision to cut back on its hedges, after defending them for years, will result in more demand in the market, and because Barrick is such a big player it should have a positive impact on the industry.

Chief financial officer Jamie Sokalsky said Barrick is reducing its hedging "for three main reasons: interest rates are at 40-year lows, leading to lower forward premiums; Barrick has never been stronger financially; and the outlook for gold prices is positive."

Last year, Barrick acquired Homestake Mining Co. of California in a $3.4 billion (Canadian) deal. The merged company is one of the world`s top three producers.

Barrick shares fell 70 cents yesterday to close at $27.09 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

[Saccard]

*lol*

Kult-Thread mit 1929 Postings.

Wenn das mal kein Omen ist.

Gruß
S.

[keepitshort]

bei www.technical-investor.de
ist eine schöne Technische Analyse zum Goldpreis zu finden

siehe Chapter: Analysen

http://www.technical-investor.de/default.asp

[ThaiGuru]

!!!!!Diese Meldung hat es in sich!!!!!

Damit sollte eigentlich das Ende des japanischen Banken System eingeläutet worden sein?

Doch für risikobewusste DayTrader bietet sich ein Zock geradezu an!

Unter dem Motto jap. Bankaktien ohne Risiko, und mit durch die BoJ garantierten Gewinne, die BoJ kauft ja jetzt die Bankaktien hoch.

Was muss eigentlich alles noch passieren bis die Masse der Anleger den "Braten" riecht.

Es ist höchste Zeit seine physischen Gold und Silber Bestände auszubauen, viel Zeit haben wir vermutlich nicht mehr.

Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020918/economy_japan_boj_4.html

Reuters Market News

BOJ to buy stocks from banks, credibility queried

Wednesday September 18, 7:07 am ET

By Tamawa Kadoya


(Updates with Takenaka quotes expressing surprise, paras 10-14)

TOKYO, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Japan`s central bank, moving to allay fears of a financial crisis, announced unprecedented plans on Wednesday to buy shares directly from banks in a surprise step that drove up stock prices but put its credibility on the line.

Sailing into uncharted waters for a central bank, the Bank of Japan said the plan was aimed at preventing market volatility and banking system instability from feeding on each other.

"The central bank must consider measures that will help banks reduce risks from their shareholdings," Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami told a news conference.

The move -- described by ratings agency Standard and Poor`s as "shocking" -- follows a fall in the Nikkei share average to 19-year lows this month, raising concerns about a financial crisis ahead of half-year book-closing on September 30.

The announcement came just an hour after the bank decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged. The bank has kept short-term interest rates at virtually zero for 1-½ years.

Finance Ministry approval is not expected until next month, but the news pulled the Nikkei off its lows in late trade.

Banking shares led the rebound.

"This is a big surprise. It shows the BOJ has a real sense of crisis about the state of the economy," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi Securities.

"This would certainly be a big plus for stocks."

But others worried that the move could hurt the bank`s credibility, and even the government expressed surprise.

"This is a very unexpected and unusual policy and I`m surprised by it," Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka said.

Takenaka told reporters that even leaders of the ruling coalition, who had been urging the central bank to take bold steps, were taken aback by the announcement.

He said he would have preferred it if the bank had broadened its money market operations and boosted money supply.

Using a baseball analogy, he said: "They should have thrown a straight fastball, but they threw a curve ball that no one had seen before."

BUYER OF LAST RESORT

Analysts were equally perplexed.

"The central bank is stepping in as the buyer of last resort, thereby nationalising the risk of cross-shareholding unwinding," said Jesper Koll, chief economist at Merrill Lynch in Tokyo.

"I think it is an admission of policy failure," he said. "A central bank doesn`t buy shares, it represents a moral hazard."

Reflecting concerns about the central bank`s role in the process, the yen came under pressure, briefly sinking to a session low of 123.10 to the dollar before later stabilising at around 122.30. Government bond prices also sagged, although they later regained much of their losses.

The central bank, which previously had repeatedly expressed its opposition to the idea of a central bank buying stocks, said the move was not aimed at manipulating share prices.

"These steps will not be a stock price-boosting measure or be aimed at boosting market liquidity," Hayami said.

He added that the purchases would be limited to stocks that banks hold in excess of a level determined from their capital.

Japanese banks traditionally have held shares in their group companies and customers to cement business ties.

They are now trying to unwind these positions to reduce the risk to their balance sheets under a guideline set last year.

But their efforts to reduce their equity portfolios to the size of their core "tier one" capital -- shareholders` equity and retained earnings -- have ended up putting more pressure on stocks. This, in turn, has put more pressure on their capital.

Major banks held about 25 trillion yen ($200 billion) of shares at the end of March, according to BOJ data.

LONG TERM PLAN

The government set up a share-buying organisation in January for the same purpose of absorbing excess bank stockholdings, but the agency`s complicated structure made it unpopular among banks and has rendered it virtually useless.

Hayami said the BOJ`s stock-buying could last for one to two years but that it would be for a limited period. He added that the stocks could stay at the BOJ for up to 10 years or so.

A BOJ official said the bank would not buy shares held by life insurers and that purchases would be made at market prices.

Standard & Poor`s Corp said the plans would have no impact on the ratings of the banks or on Japan`s sovereign rating.

[/b][/u]"It shouldn`t have an impact on the rating and credit quality for the sovereign by itself, although the move in itself is just shocking," Michael Petit, S&P managing director and chief criteria officer, told Reuters in an interview.[/b][/u]

The Nikkei average closed down 0.75 percent at 9,472.06 after a sharp rebound from early lows. But its value is still less than one quarter of a record high near 40,000 set in 1989.

[/b][/u]Shares of Mizuho Holdings Inc, the world`s largest banking group by assets, jumped 2.88 percent to end at 250,000 yen after dropping by more than six percent in earlier trade.[/b][/u]

Some economists saw the move as part of a broader banking system cleanup by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and expected further radical measures from the government to compliment it -- notably public fund injection to recapitalise ailing banks.

[/b][/u]"What we should expect now is another big surprise coming from the government probably due Thursday or Friday including a capital injection into the banking system," said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.

"Mr Koizumi has got to come up with something of the same magnitude as the BOJ did today," Kanno said.

"In fact, it`s probably a done deal otherwise the BOJ would have resisted buying bank stock."[/b][/u]

The BOJ has long argued that its monetary easing alone could not end Japan`s three-year-long deflation, saying the banking sector, crippled by non-performing-loans, must be fixed.

[/b][/u]Japanese financial regulators estimate that banks` bad loans total some 52 trillion yen ($426 billion) and have pledged to ensure banks write off the core part of that within a few years.[/b][/u]

[manfred1_I]

Diese Meldung hörte ich heute Mittag bei
bloomberg. Ich konnte es kaum glauben.

Die Japaner haben nur nicht gesagt, wann Sie
kaufen und zu welchem Preis.
Das Risiko dürfte in der Tat bei Bankaktien
begrenzt sein.

[ThaiGuru]

16 September, 2002

News update from the Idaho silver fields

Pennaluna Prospector Update Edition -- Coeur d’Alene, Idaho

As the international situation continues to fester, activity in the area’s mining industry remains at fairly high levels relative to recent years. Here are some of the current developments:

* Formation Capital (TSE:FCO) -- In what looks to be very good news for the Silver Valley, Formation Capital reported today it has escrowed the final $600,000 payment for its purchase of bankrupt Sunshine Mining’s Hydrometallurgical Complex up on Big Creek. It expects to close the transaction by month’s end and hopes initially to handle outside “feed” while it continues to develop its cobalt project down in central Idaho.

Last week, the Vancouver firm -- which aims to become the only integrated cobalt miner and chemical refiner in the United States -- announced it had tapped John Allen as general manager of its recently-formed Formation Chemicals, Inc. subsidiary, which will run the Big Creek complex. Allen is an Industrial Fellow over at the University of Montana and a former Sunshine employee with nearly 25 years of mineral processing experience.

With a 52-week high and low of CDN .49 and .19, FCO was trading today on the Toronto Stock Exchange at about .31

* New Jersey Mining (OTCBB:NJMC) – New Jersey has released first results for initial exploratory core drilling at its New Jersey gold mine up near Kellogg. The firm says eleven holes have been drilled so far, for a total of 1,310 meters. Assay results for the first six holes show the best one grading at 2.67 grams per tonne… and one 30-inch section hit 6.80 grams. Results on the other five holes are pending.

The firm plans more drilling this year at three other spots on the New Jersey site. Also, it has now received the permit to drill at its Silver Strand silver mine near Coeur d’Alene, and plans to do so in October. But it’s still waiting for a permit for the Lost Eagle prospect near Murray. Headed by the father and son mining engineer team of Fred and Grant Brackebusch, New Jersey shares traded lately at about .11.

* Mines Management (OTCBB:MNMM) – A couple weeks back, Spokane-based Mines Management reported it had bought controlling ownership in the massive Rock Lake silver and copper deposit in western Montana. The mine is better known as the Montanore Project. Shares of the little outfit with the heavyweight board were trading at around .37 at that point. Since then the price has been climbing higher. The last trade today was at .78.

* Metalline Mining (OTCBB:MMGG) – Metalline has added a new director with a ton of credentials. Dr. Roger Kolvoord earned degrees from the Universities of Michigan and Utah, as well as a PhD in geochemistry from the University of Texas. He worked for ARCO and Kennecott, and was an Associate Technical Fellow of the Boeing Company.

In other Metalline news, the firm last month reported results to date for the raise program at its Sierra Mojada silver and lead property in Coahuila, Mexico. The work is being performed by joint venture partner Minera Penoles… which is part of Grupo BAL, the giant Mexican conglomerate. The weighed average zinc grade so far in the continuing project is 9.64%. MMGG has traded lately at around $1.40.

* Sterling Mining (PinkSheets:SRLM) -- Sterling last Thursday reported results from assays of initial surface and underground sampling done at the Kimberly Gold Mine Project in central Idaho. (Kimberly Gold Mines, Inc., is a privately held Sterling affiliate.) One of the samples went nearly 14 grams per tonne over an 18-inch width… another graded 97 grams over an 8-inch width. The company said this season’s sampling program at the Kimberly will end next month. Sterling stock has traded recently at around a quarter.

* Atlas Mining (OTCBB:ALMI) -- Atlas says it has just retained two investor relations firms, to help boost investor awareness and keep shareholders informed of company progress. Over the summer, the 78-year-old firm became fully SEC reporting and its shares reappeared on the OTCBB. It recently announced an agreement with Lintech International to market and distribute halloysite clay from Atlas’ Dragon Mine down in Utah. Shares of the diversified mining, timber and underground mining contracting firm are now trading at just above a dime.

* Minera Andes (OTCBB:MNEAF/CDNX:MAI) -- Late last week, Spokane-based Minera Andes reported that provincial permits have been received to begin underground exploration and development at its Huevos Verdes gold and silver project in Santa Cruz, Argentina. Hiring of mining engineers and laborers has already started. Minera is developing the project with venture partner Mauricio Hochschild & Cia. Ltda, the large Peruvian mining firm.

In related news, Minera recently announced the start of a new precious metals exploration program in four provinces in the Patagonia region. This is at least partly the result of devaluation of the Argentina peso, which has cut exploration costs there. Minera shares have traded lately at around .31, near a 52-week high.

* Gold Reserve (TSE:GLR/OTCBB:GLDR) -- Early this month, the Corporation Venezolana de Guayana selected Crystallex International Corporation to negotiate an operating contract for the promising Las Cristinas property in Venezuela. Gold Reserve`s Brisas concession borders Las Cristinas on the south, and Gold Reserve has spent about $70 million there so far.

Last week, Spokane-based Gold Reserve commented on the Las Cristinas situation. It said it continues to believe the two parcels could be most economically developed as one large project. It estimates that on a stand-alone basis, each project would have operating costs of about $150 an ounce. But a combined project would cut that down to around $110. GLDR has been as high as $2.38 in the past year, and is trading now at about $1.34.

“In the country of the blind, the one-eyed
man is king.” Desiderius Erasmus

Editor: Tom Wobker

[ThaiGuru]

September 18 - Gold $320.30 up $3.50- Silver $4.61 up 4 cents

It Could Be Gold Curtains For Morgan With The Central Banks

The childish Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets continue to play their silly, futile games. The bullish gold pennant formation mentioned in the last two Midas’ was just that, as gold surged higher after the Morgan news. You won’t find a much more constructive looking chart than the gold one at the moment.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C2

If gold were a free market, it would be licking chops time. It still may be, but since our team is taking on the most powerful and richest people in the world (and among the most corrupt), who knows what THEY are preparing for gold tomorrow and in the days to come. As is, gold was allowed to close a tad over $320, which in essence was a $320 close, and then was IMMEDITATELY dropped 80 cents to $319.50 on the access open.

Meanwhile, the same group went to work to bring JP Morgan Chase back from near oblivion with their Dow futures buying program again. Morgan traded right below $19 early and it was back up from there as the day wore on. The PPT implemented its late day comeback once again, finding a way to close Morgan over the crucial $20 share price level. Abracadabra, Morgan closed at $20.44, down only $1.11 after one of the biggest surprise warnings ever. What gets me is that Working Group of Financial Market’s stock market and gold rigging operations are so transparent, yet so few people say anything about it.

These sickos are ruining America and the powers to be that could do something about it, just let them carry on. And I mean ruining America, as evidenced by the recent corporate fraud, stock market collapses and the horrifying chants by various politicians, Wall Street and many in the U.S. media to go to WAR. (Would all the warmongers please volunteer their kids and grandkids to serve on the front lines.)

What is so sad is that it is the little guy/gal in America that is bearing, and will bear, the brunt of all these shenanigans. They have no clue what the deviants in The Gold Cartel and the PPT are doing. By the time the American public wakes up, it will be too late, as hard-earned savings are wiped out. America has been highjacked by the bullion bankers, corrupt politicians and co-opted media. This is what Thomas Jefferson warned us about over 200 years ago. We want our country back.

Back to gold. Morgan is in much deeper trouble than the investment world realizes and a good part of it has to do with gold.

The following was sent to me by a sharp banker:

Hi Bill,

You are probably aware of the following, in case you are not this probably interests you.
You have seen the downgrades made to J.P. Morgan yesterday after they announced their disastrous losses on their loan books.

S&P have downgraded them to A+/A-1 and Fitch has downgraded them to A+.

The interesting thing is that Central Banks around the World require at least a AA rating from their counterparts to do business. (that is the reason why our bank can’t do business with the central banks as we are A rated only.)

The question is, will there finally build up some pressure from the central banks to reduce the gold borrowings of JP Morgan, and will it put pressure on future business (will J.P. Morgan be able to lend Gold in the same way they did before???)

Apart from yesterdays Barrick announcement that could prove to be very interesting!!!

Regards

Macquarie Bank Limited


What this means is that as time goes by, Morgan will probably not be able to do its bullion business with central banks. Thus, Morgan will have to deal with other bullion banks, or deal with the Fed. But, GATA has been assured many times over that the Fed does not deal in gold. So what is a poor Morgan bullion banker to do?

AND, what about their $45 billion gold derivative positions? Those positions, for the most part, are derived from gold borrowed from other central banks. How does all that play out if the central banks begin to call in their gold loans with a now credit unworthy Morgan?

Talk about a mess! You can be sure the GATA ARMY will stay all over this one.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $1.64, PM $1.56, with world gold at $317.75 and $317.50. Slightly below legal import point, but creditable considering world gold was rather unexpectedly up over $3 on the day. The rupee made a 7 ½ month high today.

With the yen weakening to 123.10 at one point this morning, the Japanese public became extremely active on Tocom. The equivalent of 60,340 Comex contracts traded, the heaviest for weeks, with the benchmark contract up 13 yen. Gold in $US was nudged up $1.50 from the NY close. Open interest dropped the equivalent of 2,030 Comex lots. (NY traded 31,436 contracts yesterday and open interest there slipped 1,150 contracts.)

Evaluating the likely next move by the Japanese public was much complicated today by the BOJ announcement that it plans to purchase a quantity of equities from the portfolios of certain Japanese banks to which they have become a burden.

Subsequent to Japan’s close, the yen has strengthened, but the raucous skepticism with which the proposal has been greeted in the West may possibly find an echo in the coming days in Tokyo.

AIG’s Bernard Connolly has whipped out an astonishingly long discussion of the news, asserting, once again, that the result will be rapidly accelerating inflation in Japan, with weakness in Japanese equities, bonds and the yen, which, he infers, will not even be allowed a short-term-relief appreciation.

Meanwhile, an interesting weakness in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares ("..both of these stocks have plunged below their 50-day MAs and are now in "sell modes"." – Richard Russell) combined with a sudden outbreak of skirmishing about the former’s questionable funding strategy, gives at least a hint that America may be able to compete with Japan in the manufacturing of Financial Structure problems.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

fgsdf

[ThaiGuru]

Da gibt es anscheinend einen Lichtblick im WBoard.

Da schreibt ein User wie ein echter GoldGuru, und versucht die Leser im Wallstreet "Allgemeines" von dem zu überzeugen, was da noch alles auf uns zukommen wird.

Thread: Kein Titel für Thread 52634740002719291509190532041409551

Seine Posting erfüllen mich mit Genugtuung, da ich sehe, dass einige Leute umdenken, und die Chance nutzen, in der Zeit die uns noch verbleibt.

Seine heute von User "Reikianer" veröffentlichten Links, möchte ich Euch nicht vorenthalten.

Geschrieben von Prof. Malik von der Universität St. Gallen, veröffentlicht in Kolumnen im Manager Magazin.

Ribaldcorello sollte diese Veröffentlichungen unbedingt auch lesen, vielleicht hilft es auch ihm zu erkennen, dass Gold und Silber noch gewaltig teurer werden können, wenn erstmal die breite Masse von diesen Skandalen, und den katstrophalen wirtschaftlichen Gegebenheiten wissen, über die Malik schreibt.

http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepfe/mzsg/0,2828,177197,00.h…

http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepfe/mzsg/0,2828,184295,00.h…

http://www.manager-magazin.de/koepfe/mzsg/0,2828,206667,00.h…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[keepitshort]

Der Ölpreis am Morgen nimmt erstmal alle Sorgen

[ThaiGuru]

Sieht gerade so aus, als ob wir bald eine Entscheidung sehen werden!

Fallen die 322.-, 325.-, oder gar noch die 330.- US$

Dieser Goldpreis Chart gefällt mir zur Zeit ausserordentlich gut!

[niemandweiss]

grüss dich Thaiguru,

apropo Goldchart. Was mich gestern stark verwundert hat, dass es mit den Minen, ohne dass sich der Goldpreis geändert hatte, die ganze Zeit nach unten ging. Hast du evlt. eine Erklärung?

Mal abgesehen von dem gerade stattgefundenen Anstieg bei Gold: Langsam wissen wir, wie stark die Schwankungen hier sind, solange es nicht noch einmal stark nach unten korrigieren wird, bin ich zumindest zufrieden.

[keepitshort]

der Rohölpreis fällt von 9.00 bis 10.00 MEZ

der Goldpreis steigt von 11.00 bis 12.00 MEZ

also dürften die US-Futures
wie S&P500 und Nasdaq-Futures

im Moment den Goldpreis bewegen

und natülich unser foe and friend
JP-Morgan
foe wegen der Goldderivate
friend wenn JP-Morgan fällt gewinnen die Goldbugs

[keepitshort]

Chartquelle: www.comdirect.de

Wenn ich den Goldpreis ab 10.00 Uhr Berlin-Time betrachte
so treibt doch der
schwache US-Dollar ( starke Euro ) den Goldpreis nach oben.

[ThaiGuru]

Nemax 50!

Der Lift ist gerade im Parterre angelangt, bitte alles aussteigen!

3xx.xx

[tamara93]

Aussteigen ist bestimmt sinnvoll, da im Paterre noch lange nicht Endstation ist. Es gehr noch weiter bis ins 3. Untergeschoss.

[Gringo1]

Wer mit einem IQ über dem eines Wäschetrockners sollte auch nur 1 € in diese Totgeburt NEMAX investieren ?

Nicht Förtschi sagen, ich sagte ÜBER dem eines Wäschetrockners ....

[ThaiGuru]

@Tamara93

Es ist genau wie Du es sagst!

Alles Austeigen bevor es weiter in den Keller geht, und zu Fuss weiter zur nächsten Bank, und physisches Gold und Silber kaufen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020919/telecoms_worldcom_report_1.ht…

Reuters Company News
WorldCom SEC report could add $2 bln in errors-WSJ
Thursday September 19, 4:45 am ET


NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - WorldCom Inc. (Other OTC:WCOEQ.PK - News) is preparing a further revision of its financial results that could add about $2 billion to the $7 billion in accounting problems it has already disclosed, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Citing people close to the situation, The Journal reported that officials from Clinton, Mississippi-based WorldCom are expected to present the company`s new findings to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.

The company was not immediately available for comment.

While the exact breakdown isn`t yet known, some of the revision may partly relate to write-downs of assets. An unspecified amount is expected also to stem from improper accounting related to consolidation of foreign subsidiaries, The Journal reported.

People close to the situation cautioned that the $2 billion figure may be preliminary in a "fluid" situation as WorldCom representatives conduct a forensic review of the company`s books, according to The Journal.

The company is expected to take a massive $50 billion write-off related to goodwill, and it isn`t clear whether a portion of the additional restatement might be part of that announcement, The Journal reported.

The expected addition to the restated numbers, however, marks the second time WorldCom has added large amounts to the earnings revision that drove the world`s second-largest long-distance company into bankruptcy in July, The Journal reported.

[Sovereign]

"Der Lift ist gerade im Parterre angelangt, bitte alles aussteigen!"

Na, ob das schon das Parterre ist, wage ich zu bezweifeln.
Getreu dem Motto: "Man macht erst Verluste, wenn man verkauft." werden die Lemminge weiter ihre NEMAX-Aktien kaufen.

Erinnert mich irgendwie, an den Mann, der aus dem 35. Stock sprang, und an jeder Etage an der er im FAll vorbeiflog schrie: "Soweit ging`s gut!"

Gruß

Sovereign

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/meast/09/19/mideast.violence/i…

At least 5 dead in Tel Aviv terror attack

Thursday, September 19, 2002 Posted: 9:21 AM EDT (1321 GMT)

TEL AVIV, Israel (CNN) -- A suicide bomber set off a blast on a crowded city bus in downtown Tel Aviv on Thursday, killing at least five Israelis, according to police.



It was the second terror attack in Israel in two days, after six weeks without any bombings.

"A bus just blew up in front of my eyes," said CNN sound engineer Michael Harris, who was near the scene. He described the blast as "enormous."

Ambulance services said at least 60 people had been wounded. At least five of them were reported to be in serious condition. The bomber was killed, police said.

The Tel Aviv police chief told Israeli television that the bus driver is believed to have tried to block the bomber as he boarded the bus. That, said the police chief, probably lessened the number of casualties.

The explosion went off just after 1 p.m. local time (6 a.m. ET) on Allenby Street in a crowded shopping district.

Dozens of emergency workers rushed to the scene. Television pictures showed rescuers aiding victims who sat on the shady, tree-lined sidewalks.

Police brought in bomb-sniffing dogs and canvassed the area, looking for other explosives.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

The blast came one day after an Israeli policeman was killed and two other Israelis were wounded when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a bus stop near the town of Umm el-Fahm in northern Israel. (Full story)

Ra`anan Gissin, an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, said Palestinian terror groups remained "highly motivated" to carry out attacks in Israel.

Gissin said the Palestinian Authority was taking "no action whatsoever to stop the terror activity." He said Israeli military activity in the Palestinian territories was the only reason there had been "a lull in the successful terrorist attacks" for six weeks prior to Wednesday.

But Saeb Erakat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, said the Palestinian Authority was doing "everything we can" to stop the violence.

He said the Palestinian Authority "condemns any attack on Israeli citizens" and said the only way stop the violence is to "resume a meaningful peace process."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.cnn.com/2002/09/16/markets/warnings/index.htm

Here come the warnings

In a downbeat sign, the rate of 3Q earnings disappointments to surprises is on the rise.

September 18, 2002: 1:16 PM EDT
By Jake Ulick, CNN/Money Staff Writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A deluge of details about corporate America`s bleak summer are expected to flood the market in the weeks ahead as companies offer early looks at their September quarters.

So far, of the 203 companies in the Standard & Poor`s 500 index issuing third-quarter pre-announcements, 106 have warned on results while 42 have said their numbers will top forecasts. Fifty-five firms told investors they will meet Wall Street`s financial targets, according to First Call.

But First Call, which tracks earnings, said the ratio of warnings to upside surprises has been growing as the third quarter draws to a close, raising the likelihood of more bad news in the weeks ahead.




"That`s ominous because we`ve seen the ratio come down in recent quarters," Chuck Hill, First Call`s director of research told CNNfn`s Market Call.

As if on cue, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: Research, Estimates) late Tuesday readied investors for a third-quarter shortfall.

So far, there have been 2.5 warnings for every one upside surprise, up from the 1.1 ratio at this time in the second quarter, First Call said, and 2.0 at this time in the first quarter.

"That indicates that we are going to have a tough pre-announcement season," said Hill, referring to the period that grows busier over the next three weeks and ebbs when companies start releasing third-quarter results in mid-October.

Before Morgan, one of the latest high-profile warnings came from McDonald`s (MCD: Research, Estimates), which said earlier Tuesday that third-quarter profits will fall as much as 9.5 percent below analysts` expectations.

On Monday, Genzyme General (GENZ: Research, Estimates) said slack sales of its kidney disease drug Renagel would hurt upcoming results. Genzyme joined Honeywell International (HON: Research, Estimates) and Lucent Technologies (LU: Research, Estimates) among companies recently disappointing investors.

The technology and telecom sector is where the bulk of those warnings are coming from, according to First Call, which could not provide specific details. Consumer cyclical companies comprise the fewest shortfalls.

Not all the pre-announcements have been bad. Ford Motor Co. (F: Research, Estimates) said it expects to post a third-quarter profit, surprising Wall Street analysts who expected the No. 2 automaker to lose money. Procter & Gamble (PG: Research, Estimates) raised its sales and earnings estimates for the current quarter earlier this month, joining H&R Block (HRB: Research, Estimates).

Still, overall third-quarter profits are seen rising 9.7 percent from year-ago levels, down from the 16.6 percent advance that analysts surveyed by First call expected on July 1st.

If the gain holds, it will be only the second quarter among the last seven periods when corporate earnings enjoyed year-over-year gains.

[mickym [VIP]]

Hallo Thai und @all,

habt Ihr mal wieder ein Erklärung dafür warum die Minen heute so schwach waren, obwohl GOP über 323$.

Ich weiss ist oft nicht einfach, aber vielleicht wisst Ihr ja was.

Gruss Mic

[silvo]

zu 1952# die meisten"charttechniker" erwarten Anstieg bis 326 und dann Rückgang - ich bin jedoch optimistisch daß d. Rückschlag ausbleibt - einem weiteren Anstieg der Minen dürfte dann nichts mehr im Wege stehen mfg

[talvi]

Weil morgen ein Stichtag für Optionen ist.
Wenn die Minenwerte nicht mitlaufen,ist es für mich ein Zeichen, das der Goldpreis nochmal nach unten geht.

Grüße Talvi

[ThaiGuru]

September 19 - Gold $322.60 up $2.30 - Silver $4.63 up 2 cents

$330 Gold Within Striking Distance
A quiet, but very firm U.S. gold session. Early morning U.S. time, gold bolted higher, gaining $3.50 at one point. Just like yesterday, a new seller emerged to cap the rally. It came from a broker known to do bank business, but one who has not been that active lately except for the past couple of days. I can only surmise it is JP Morgan Chase disguising its selling. I say that because the Comex and bullion dealer world is a swirl of talk about the coming JPM gold derivative debacle.

Midas has reported talk about Morgan before, but the talk is different now. The trading sharks not only believe the story now, but are prepared to act on it by taking on Morgan and the rest of The Gold Cartel. This is terrible news for Morgan and GREAT news for us. As said here often, Dracula-like Morgan and the rest of the cabal cannot stand the light of day to shine upon their gold activity. They cannot deal with the investment world knowing the truth about their price-fixing and the massive size of their gold short positions.

As a result of all this talk, the last thing JPM wants is for the trading crowd seeing them selling even more gold.

It would appear that not only is The Gold Cartel desperately trying to keep gold from exploding through $330, but the PPT is doing what it can to prevent derivative giant JPM from complete collapse.

Somebody was all over Morgan today, propping the share price up all day long after the early going. The banking index eroded steadily, closing on it lows of the day at 686, down 28. Morgan, on the other hand, traded $19.50 near the opening, but rallied the rest of the day to close at $19. 87, down 57 cents. The price-propping could not have been more blatant, or more obvious as the DOW was crushed, closing at 7942, down 230 and the DOG fell 36 points to 1216. The NASDOG is only 10 points away from 5-year lows, which means investors in for the long-term are being crushed.

Regard, the banking index trading versus JPM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=JPM&k=c1&t=1d&s=%5Eixbk&a=v…

Does that stand out, or what!!!

The Working Group on Financial Markets knows what is at stake with Morgan. If Morgan’s gold/interest rate derivative positions blow up, the U.S. financial system could blow up. Normally, one would be thinking of a Morgan merger with another bank, but what bank out there could deal with their spectacular 24 trillion derivative positions? What bank could take on their gold short position with its 45 billion in gold derivatives?

Morgan owes various central banks a staggering amount of gold. Problem is the current yearly supply/demand deficit is running at 1400/1700 tonnes, mine supply is going down and the bullion banks already owe central banks around 14 to 15 thousand tonnes of gold. Morgan is trapped. They cannot cover their gold shorts without gold rising several hundreds of dollars per ounce.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $0.81, PM $0.14, with world gold at $319.80 and $322.40. Well below legal import levels in a normal response to an abrupt price gain.

As expected, Tocom speculators were quite confused by the sudden rise of the yen following the BOJ’s surprise assertion that it stood ready to purchase parcels of equities from certain banks. Ultimately, however, a renewed softening in the yen brought out some activity, with the active (July ’03) contract rising another yen and open interest edging up the equivalent of 263 Comex lots, on total volume of 26, 625 Comex equivalent, down by 56% from Wednesday. (NY yesterday traded 41,354 lots. Open interest surged 5,467 contracts, indicating how resolute the purchasing needed to be to move gold even $3.50.

Bullion Bank commentators are particularly noisy at present asserting that stiff resistance lurks above, at $322, or $325 or $330. Long, painful experience warns that, when united like this, they may know something. Veteran market observer (and market action supremacist) Richard Russell was similarly provoked by the very sluggish gold equity action of the last couple of days to remark last night:

"It`s as though every time the gold shares or gold move up a bit, someone either takes profits or hits them for "other reasons."

But the dealers also concede serious support showed itself earlier this week ("Tuesday’s dip toward $314 found willing buyers from the physical sector…gold seems to have a solid base as we approach…a period of strong seasonal physical demand…" – Standard London). World conditions could hardly be more congenial to gold. Greg Weldon’s "Special Focus: Long-term secular bullishness in Gold" makes some intriguing observations:

1) Yen faltering encouragingly
2) Monthly gold chart very powerful
3) Various momentum measures encouraging

Indeed, if gold were to hold here to month end, it would achieve the 2nd highest monthly close in 5 years!

One also notes that MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold, at 67% last night, is below where it spent most of July.

If there is a gold price manager, September is proving awkward for him.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The dollar was tagged, closing at 107.74, down .74.

The economic news continues to worsen:

Washington, Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home construction unexpectedly fell in August for a third straight month, putting a crack in one pillar of the economic recovery.
Builders broke ground on new homes at an annual rate of 1.609 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. That was down 2.2 percent from July`s 1.645 million pace and mostly due to a slump in the Midwest. Initial jobless claims held above a level that suggests a sluggish labor market, the Labor Department said.

``Weaker housing starts and persistently high jobless claims continue to point toward a modest economic recovery,`` said Edgar Peters, chief investment officer at PanAgora Asset Management, where he helps manage $15 billion

Bullion-banking blues bowl on:

Washington, Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. agreed to pay $240 million to settle accusations its consumer finance unit used deceptive practices to sell home loan insurance to customers with a history of unpaid debts.
The world`s largest financial services company will pay a record $215 million to resolve charges by the Federal Trade Commission and $25 million to settle a class-action lawsuit, the agency said in a statement. Regulators alleged the former Associates First Capital Corp., which Citigroup bought in 2000, added the insurance to home equity loans without the borrowers` knowledge. –END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/020919/15474436aa051765885636e0242f…

Kings Bay Gold Corp. and Solitaire Minerals Corp. intersects Gold and Multi-Metallic Minerals at Confederation Project, Red Lake, Ontario.

Thursday September 19, 2:48 pm ET


WINNIPEG, MANITOBA

Expanded Drilling Planned.

King`s Bay Gold Corp.(TSX.V - KBG) and Solitaire Minerals Corp.(TSX.V - SLT) are pleased to announce that assay results from a short section of drill core from their Garnet Lake property in Red Lake, Ontario has been received from International Metallurgical and Environmental Labs Inc. of Kelowna, BC.

This test was designed to provide initial indications of the multi-minerals present in the highly mineralized drill core intersections of Diamond Drill Hole #8, before sending all of the drill core intersections to the lab for assay.

The assay returned a significant array of multi-minerals. Some of the most prominent are as follows: 1.3% Copper , 0.8kg/ton Uranium, 8 grams/ton Silver, 1.1 grams/ton Gold, 235 grams/ton Cobalt, 223 grams/ton Chromium, 178 grams/ton Nickel, 2.2% Magnesium and 6.8% Aluminum. As previously reported, some of the intercepted mineralized zones were 8, 18 and 33 feet in width and another intercepted almost 49 feet of mineralization. With the significance of these results, expanded drilling will take place on this property to include at least 2 additional Diamond Drill holes.

Encouraged by these results, King`s Bay the operator of the project and Solitaire are looking forward to receiving the forthcoming full assay results. Further drilling is ongoing to test this 2000 foot long structure which is open at both ends and at depth.

The supervising (Qualified Person) responsible for 43-101 is John Burns Professional Geologist.

Exploration Plans for Headway Project

Kings Bay and Solitaire plan to commence drilling their Headway Property, located some 1200 metres from Goldcorp`s high grade zone (HGZ), upon completion of the drill program at Garnet Lake. Goldcorp`s Red Lake Mine is claimed to host the richest gold orebody in the world. Goldcorp recently announced that they had intercepted a zone hosting 10.80 ounces of Gold per ton over 70 ft at a vertical depth of 6850 ft. Except for world renowned gold mining giant Placer Dome, Kings Bay the operator of the projects and partner Solitaire own the closest property to Goldcorp`s HGZ.

About King`s Bay Gold Corp

King`s Bay Gold Corp is a Canadian based resource company focused on acquiring and exploring precious metal prospects. The Corporation recently started trading on the TSX Ventures Exchange on April 18, 2002 and has assembled a portfolio of precious metal exploration prospects in Northwestern Ontario, including strategic property positions in the Red Lake, Pickle Lake and Kenora areas. Certain properties exhibit high-grade gold values; others are located in close proximity to past producing as well as active mines.

The Corporation has approximately $1,000,000 cash on hand and owns most of the equipment to carry out all various phases of exploration. In addition, the Corporation possesses it`s own wire line diamond drills and is debt free.

On behalf of the board
King`s Bay Gold Corporation
Richard Rivet - President & CEO
152 Gull Lake Road
Winnipeg, MB R3T 5T3



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:

King`s Bay Gold Corporation
Richard Rivet
President & CEO
Phone: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]
Web site: www.kingsbaygold.com

The TSX Ventures Exchange has not reviewed and not accept, responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020919/to054_1.html

Press Release Source: Kinross Gold Corporation


Kinross Gold Corporation; Bema Gold Corporation
Thursday September 19, 4:10 pm ET


TORONTO, Sept. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX- K; Amex-KGC) and Bema Gold Corporation (TSX-BGO; Amex-BGO), each 50% owners of Compania Minera Maricunga ("CMM") are pleased to announce that CMM has received full payment of an award settlement for approximately US$ 24 million from Fluor Daniel Chile Ingenieria y Construccion S.A, Fluor Daniel Corporation, and Fluor Daniel Wright Ltd. ("Fluor"). In April of 1999 CMM initiated formal arbitration proceedings, against Fluor, to recover damages related to numerous design and construction failures at the Refugio Mine located in Northern Chile. In May of 2002, binding arbitration in Chile ruled in favour of CMM for these damages.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Kinross Gold Corporation

[Shun]

Hallo Thai Guru !

Als regelmäßiger Leser Deiner hochinteressanten Beiträge wollt ich mich mal bei Dir für Deine Arbeit bedanken.


RESPEKT !!!!

Grüsse

Shun


P.S.: Hab so ein Gefühl das die Goldpreismanipulation bald ein Ende hat. Irgendwann geht denen die Kohle aus.

Up Up and away ....

[ThaiGuru]

Ein Ohmen?

Wusstet Ihr eigentlich, dass die Aktie mit dem grössten Einfluss, auf den Dow Jones eine Minenaktie ist?

Und dass diese "Minenaktie" vermutlich bald den grossen Crash am Dow einläuten könnte?

Das glaubt ihr nicht?


Doch, doch, das ist so!



Preisfrage:

Derjenige unter den WLesern/Usern, der den richtigen Namen diese "Minenaktie" errät, und hier postet, bekommt von mir einen Hotel Gutschein für ein Wochenende in Bangkok Thailand für zwei Personen. In einem Hotel im Zentrum des Nachtlebens von Bangkok, mit Swimmingpool, und allem drum und dran.

Stichtag: Freitag 20. September 2002, 24.00 Uhr MEZ.
Bei mehreren richtigen Antworten, gewinnt derjenige, der die richtige Antwort zuerst gepostet hat. Der Gewinner erhält den Gutschein, der 1 Jahr gültig ist, von mir per Post zugesandt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Shun]

Minnesota Mining !!!!!

[Clunes]

ALCOA INC NYSE 2021805?

mfg Clunes

[ThaiGuru]

Was hat den diese Meldung mit dem Goldpreis zu tun?

Werden sich vielleicht einige Leser fragen?

Richtig, eigentlich auf den ersten Blick gar nichts.
Oswald Grübel und John Mack werden an Stelle von Mühlemann Konzernchefs bei der Credit Swiss, CS-Grup.
Das John Mack von Credit Swiss First Bosten *CSFB* kommt wird auch bekanntgegeben.



Was aber wohl wissentlich bei Credit Swiss verschwiegen wird, ist die Tatsache, dass dieser "John Mack", als ehemaliger CEO von Morgan Stanley über den Umweg als CEO der Credit Swiss First Bosten *CSFB* kommt, auch wird nicht erwähnt dass Mack bei Morgan Stanley und CSFB den Uebernamen "Mack the Knife" besass. Und schon hat diese Meldung eine ganz andere Bedeutung.

Morgan Stanley wurde und wird von der GATA dem Gold Kartel zugerechnet.

Wollte mit diesem Beitrag nur aufzeigen, dass jetzt ein ehemaliger CEO von "Morgan Stanley", einem Goldpreis Manipulateur der ersten Güte, die Konzernspitze der zweitgrössten schweizer Bank als Konzernchef, zusammen mit Oswald Grübel kontrolliert.

Wundert Euch bitte nicht darüber, dass die Credit Swiss ihren Kunden Gold als Anlage Instrument bis jetzt nie speziell empfohlen hat, und vermutlich so lange es irgenwie geht, auch in Zukunft nicht empfehlen wird.

Angestellten bei der Credit Swiss Bank kann ich nur den Rat geben, Euch gut anzuschnallen, "Mack the Knife" kommt!


Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=160

Freitag 20.09.2002, MEZ 03:21



Mühlemann wirft das Handtuch


swissinfo 19. September 2002 17:23



Der seit längerem umstrittene CSG-Präsident Lukas Mühlemann verlässt die Spitze des zweitgrössten Schweizer Finanzkonzerns auf Ende Jahr. Nachfolger wird Swiss-Re-Chef Walter B. Kielholz.

In die Rolle des Konzernchefs teilen sich Oswald Grübel und John Mack.

Die Rücktritts-Ankündigung kam am Donnerstag überraschend. "Solange der Verwaltungsrat und ich überzeugt sind, dass ich einen massgeblichen Beitrag leisten kann, nehme ich meine Aufgabe bei der Credit Suisse Group wahr", hatte Mühlemann in einem "Weltwoche"-Interview von Mitte August erklärt.

Laut CSG-Mitteilung war es nun Mühlemann selber, der seinen Rücktritt auf Ende 2002 einreichte. Er wolle dazu beitragen, dass sich der Finanzkonzern "unbelastet von den Diskussionen um meine Person" erfolgreich weiter entwickeln könne, wird Mühlemann zitiert.

Der CSG-Verwaltungsrat wird über die Abgangs-Entschädigung für den zurücktretenden Konzernchef und VR-Präsident entscheiden. Veröffentlicht werden soll der Entscheid erst nach dem Ausscheiden Mühlemanns, hiess es bei der CSG.

(Eine Abgangsentschädigung in der Höhe mehrerer gut gefüllten deutschen Lotto Jack Potes, dürften es wohl schon sein? Aber was soll`s, die gönnen sich ja sonst nichts! TG)

[Bing0]

TG,

da fällt mir nur Microsoft ein. Bill Gates kauft seit Jahren Minen auf.

Gruß, bing0

[keepitshort]

@ThaiGuru
#1961


Die Antwort auf die Preisfrage lautet:

Die Goldmine: Barrick Gold hat sehr starke Vorwärtsverkäufe
hat ein starkes hedging gegen einen steigenden Goldpreis

Barrick Gold könnte bei steigendem Goldpreis eine
ähnliches Ende wie Enron nehmen

Barrick Gold versucht zwar seine hedge-Positionen
abzubauen aber wenn die so weiter machen wie bisher
sind die im Jahre 2020 erst frei von Vorwärtsverkäufen

das habe ich im Forum bei www.USAgold.com gelesen


Infos zu Goldminen gibt es auch
bei www.goldseiten.de


bei mehreren Gewinner soll es eine Verlosung geben

wieviel Sterne hat denn das Hotel
ist der Hotel-Service mitinbegriffen
( all-inclusive ??? )
oder muss ich dort mein Essen selbst bezahlen ???

[Dauphin]

Ich versuchs auch mal...

Möglicherweise meinst du JPM, das "Deviratemonster"......




MfG Dauphin

[hpoth]

Leider bin ich zuspät dran aber für mich ist es auch
Barrick Gold, wegen den Vorwärtsverkäufe, also großes Heding
Book.
Gruß hpoth

[keepitshort]

ich verzichte auf meinen Gewinn
so sicher bin ich meiner Sache

JPM= JP-Morgan kann es nicht sein
das JP-Morgan-Chase-Manhatten eine Bank ist

es wird aber eine Mine gesucht

[derunsichtbarefreund]

nein nein

es ist Morgan stanley , die seit wochen mit riesigen goldkäufen am markt sind. eindecken um jeden preis.

DUF

[Prof.Goldhagen]

Lieber ThaiGuru,

die Auflösung Deiner Preisfrage heißt "3M Co.". Früher hieß sie einmal "Minnesota Mining an Manufacturing Company", daher 3M.

Du hast ja auch von einer "Minengesellschaft" in Anführungszeichen gesprochen, da das "Mining" inzwischen für die Gesellschaft nicht mehr so bedeutend ist.

Der Wert ist insofern besonders wichtig für den Dow Jones, da dieser als idiotischer Index die Kurse der im Index enthaltenen Aktien addiert und 3M mit rd. 119 US-§ der "teuerste" Wert ist.

Nordthailand gefällt mir übrigens auch ganz gut, Chiang Mai und Umgebung.

Schönen Gruß

[SchlimmerSilberfinger]

Ich kannte mal einen Geschäftsführer und einen Verkaufsleiter von 3M. Nachdem sie bei 3M das Handtuch geworfen haben und auch in der Firma anheuerten, die mich beschäftigte, erzählten sie, wofür "3M" wirklich steht:

"3 Mal teuerer!"

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41939-2002Sep…

Bush Delivers Iraq Resolution
President Asks Unlimited Power To Act Without Further Requests

By Karen DeYoung and Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 20, 2002; Page A01


President Bush asked Congress yesterday for unlimited authority to take whatever action he sees fit against Iraq, including the use of military force, without any further congressional consultation or approval.

In a White House-drafted resolution, Bush cited for the first time "the high risk that the current Iraqi regime" would use weapons of mass destruction to "launch a surprise attack against the United States or its armed forces," in addition to the possibility it would turn such weapons over to international terrorists.

The proposal was favorably received by most members of both parties on Capitol Hill. Although Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) said, "We don`t want to be a rubber stamp," there were widespread predictions that the resolution will be adopted by a wide majority in the House and Senate after a lengthy debate. The president has said he would like the resolution approved by early October.

"It`s time to quit waffling and weaseling around," said Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss).

In a series of introductory clauses that make up the bulk of the lengthy resolution, the Bush administration asserts an "inherent right" under international law to launch a unilateral, preemptive attack against Iraq based on its "material breach" of a decade of U.N. resolutions, as well as the United States` right to defend itself against the risk that Baghdad will attack this country first. The document says that Saddam Hussein`s government has "demonstrated its continuing hostility toward, and willingness to attack the United States," citing a 1993 plot to assassinate former president George H.W. Bush during a visit to Kuwait and firing on U.S. planes enforcing "no-fly" zones over northern and southern Iraq.

The resolution backs off previous allegations by the administration of possible involvement by Baghdad in the Sept. 11 attacks. But it notes that "members of al Qaeda . . . are known to be in Iraq" and, without further explanation, says the attacks "underscored the gravity of the threat that Iraq will transfer weapons of mass destruction to international terrorist organizations."

The possible nexus between anti-U.S. terrorists and countries possessing or seeking biological, chemical and nuclear weapons has long been the keystone of the case for preemptive action. The new expansion of the threat assessment to include a "high risk" that Hussein would launch a direct attack on this country appeared designed to bolster the case that the United States is justified in acting outside the United Nations.

Several Democrats complained that the proposed wording provides the president far too much freedom to wage war in the Persian Gulf region and vowed to fight to restrict the president`s ability to deploy troops without coming back to Congress for permission.

"We should not approve such a sweeping resolution, which would commit thousands to death and extract billions from the pockets of American taxpayers," said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Tex). "This open-ended resolution seeks broader authority than the Gulf of Tonkin resolution upon which reliance was made to wage the Vietnam War."

Others noted that Bush`s proposed wording would conceivably authorize military force anywhere in the Middle East and Persian Gulf region. The key concluding section of the resolution authorizes the president "to use all means that he determines to be appropriate, including force, in order to enforce . . . United Nations Security Council resolutions . . . defend the national security interests of the United States against the threat posed by Iraq, and restore international peace and security to the region."

Daschle said after a closed-door meeting of Senate Democrats last night that they want the sentence to clarify that the authorization is for action against Iraq only, and to ensure that Iran and other nations would not be potential targets as well.

In a White House briefing for reporters, a senior administration official said, "The president constitutionally has the authority to react to any threat to the United States and the people" without asking Congress. But the objective, the official said, "is to provide to the president the maximum flexibility to deal with the threat posed by Iraq."

The official described the resolution as "an initial draft by the White House. We`re going to be meeting with Congress to debate these kinds of points."

Democrats also said they want the resolution to spell out a U.S. commitment to work within the United Nations before taking unilateral steps. The draft lists the U.N. resolutions defied by Iraq, from barring U.N.-mandated weapons inspectors to brutally abusing minorities inside the country, and treats the case against Baghdad as closed. It contains no reference to the possibility of future compliance. Nor does it mention ongoing efforts in the U.N. Security Council to resume international weapons inspections in Iraq, or administration promotion of a U.N. resolution authorizing use of international force if Baghdad does not submit to U.N. demands.

The resolution submitted to Congress "is not in any way tied or conditioned on what happens in the U.N.," a senior administration official said.

Bush began his day meeting with key Democrats to head off opposition to the resolution. After a midmorning Oval Office briefing by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, Bush told reporters, "I don`t trust Iraq, and neither should the free world. . . . I`ve asked for Congress`s support to enable the administration to keep the peace."

Some members of Congress referred to Bush`s U.N. speech last week warning that the world body would become "irrelevant" if it failed to act in Iraq. The lawmakers asked how the administration could simultaneously urge aggressive U.N. action in Iraq while pursuing a unilateral strategy that does not take the United Nations into account as part of the solution..

"I believe if we really mean it when we say that we want the U.N. to be relevant, that we should not act in a manner that treats them as irrelevant," Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich) told Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Levin, who has said he prefers a congressional resolution focusing on U.N. action, said "it`s a lot different for Saddam Hussein to be looking down the barrel of a gun that is held by the world."

Bush`s staunchest opposition came from liberal Democrats who oppose any precipitative military action in Iraq.

House Minority Whip Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif), who is emerging as this faction`s leader, said "the case of using force in Iraq has not been made." Pelosi, the ranking Democrat on the House intelligence committee, voiced concern that a war with Iraq will undercut the broader war against terrorism. "I don`t like this resolution," she said.

Rumsfeld, in his testimony, presented the administration`s starkest version yet of the difficulty of waging war against Iraq. Although a number of proponents of a U.S. assault outside the administration have suggested that Iraq could easily be defeated by a brief but massive air assault, Rumsfeld said that "the Iraq problem cannot be solved by airstrikes alone." Ground troops would be needed, Rumsfeld said, and there was no guarantee they would not come under chemical or biological attack.

"We simply do not know where all, or even a large portion, of Iraq`s weapons of mass destructions facilities are," he said.


© 2002 The Washington Post Company

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.cbc.ca/reuter/20020920/b092007.html

AurionGold Again Cuts Porgera Gold Output

3:55:33 GMT 20-Sep-2002

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Papua New Guinea`s giant Porgera gold mine faces a 120,000 ounce production shortfall in 2002 after further sabotage meant power supplies would not be restored until mid-October, a partner in the mine said Friday.

Disgruntled highlanders, seeking a greater voice in a
newly-formed government, began attacking power lines to the
mine in July, forcing the operators to eventually close the
mine while repairs were made.

Further acts of vandalism in the past week had damaged more
lines, which would take a month to restore, AurionGold Ltd,
which holds a 25 percent stake in the mine, said.

"Under current conditions, the interruption to operations is expected to reduce the joint venture`s forecast production for calendar 2002 by 120,00 ounces of gold to 560,000 ounces," the company said.

At prevailing bullion prices, the lost production is worth
about $39 million.

Canada`s Placer Dome Inc <PDG.TO> holds a 50 percent
interest and Oil Search Ltd <OSH.AX> and PNG government
agencies jointly retain the remaining 25 percent stake.

AurionGold shares were two cents lower at A$3.62 in early
afternoon trading, while Oil Search was two cents lower at
A$0.73. Placer Dome closed down seven Canadian cents at C$16.55 on the Toronto bourse.

POLICE GUNFIGHTS

Porgera`s workforce of 850 workers was stood down last
month and mining was suspended as villagers in isolated
communities in Southern Highlands Province vented their anger against a lack of attention paid in the national election to regional issues.

During the six-week poll, local police said they were
outgunned by armed gangs backing various candidates. Around 25 people were killed in election-related violence.

Government ministers have since visited the province in
hope of ending the vandalism and to address road access and a lack of services.

Repairs to the power poles, some 30-50 km (19-31 miles)
from the mine, were underway, AurionGold said.

Porgera, once Papua New Guinea`s biggest gold mine,
yielding around one million ounces a year, has been in decline in recent years as richer ore bodies are mined out.

"The mine is in its waning years, but this could continue for another 10 years," Eagle Mining Research gold analyst Keith Goode said.

AurionGold, a one million ounce a year producer with most
of its mines in Australia, is the target of a hostile takeover bid by Placer Dome.

AurionGold, previously called Delta, claimed A$70 million
in insurance after writing off a gold mine in neighboring
Solomon Islands after warring ethnic groups stormed the site.

Like the Solomons, Papua New Guinea is a nation divided. Its 5.1 million people speak up to 800 languages and tribal wars are common, sometimes lasting months and leaving scores dead.


(C) Reuters 2002.

[ThaiGuru]

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020920/15/32zhm.html

Friday September 20, 5:47 PM

Placer/AurionGold -3: Stake Rises To 42.45%

Placer/AurionGold -2: Bid Extended For Seventh Time

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Canadian gold miner Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) said Friday it will extend to Oct 2. the closing date for its hostile takeover bid for Australia`s AurionGold Ltd. (A.AOR).

The bid was to have closed Friday. It is the seventh time Placer has extended the closing date for its offer.

Placer has so far managed to snare just over 38% of AurionGold.

AurionGold shares ended down 1 cent at A$3.63, in line with the implied value of Placer`s bid, and valuing the company at almost A$1.6 billion.

-By Andrew Trounson; Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9614-2664; [e-mail]




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Copyright © 2002 Dow Jones & Company Inc. All rights reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020920/15/32yuf.html

Friday September 20, 10:26 AM

INTERVIEW:Gold Fields Considers Australia Mine Expansion

By Stephen Bell

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

PERTH (Dow Jones)--South Africa`s Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) plans to speed up exploration at its St Ives gold mine in Western Australia as it contemplates a major expansion.

Gold Fields, which bought St Ives late last year as part of its US$233 million acquisition of WMC Ltd`s. (WMC) gold assets, hopes to find enough ore reserves to justify a processing upgrade.

"There haven`t been any negatives," said Steven Banning, head of Australian operations for Gold Fields, commenting on progress at the mine.

"In fact, the more we get into it, the more we`re pleased with the resource potential," he told Dow Jones Newswires.

The company has allocated A$20 million for exploration at St Ives in the year ending June 30, 2003, a spending rate of around three-times greater than the previous owner. However, as part of an optimization study, Gold Fields is planning an "accelerated drilling program that would be additional to that budget", Banning said.

"We hope to carry that (exploration) out over the next six months and we`re seeking board approval now," he said. "We`re likely to hear back inside a month."

The idea of the accelerated program is to convert resources to proven ore reserves. The mine has resources of seven million ounces, including reserves of 2.5 million.

"A lot of those resources need to be converted so that we can evaluate the best way to proceed on processing options," he said. The exploration will help Gold Fields decide whether to build a new processing mill at St Ives, possibly rated at 5-6 million tonnes of ore per year.

The current mill is rated at 3.2 million tonnes per year, while a further 2 million tonnes are processed via the "heap leaching" method.

"We don`t have a particularly efficient circuit as it stands," Banning said. "The milling costs are quite a bit higher than they would be in a new facility."

Since Gold Fields took control of St Ives on December 1, the mine has produced 341,000 ounces at a cash cost of US$160 per ounce. Banning said the company hopes to reduce costs at St Ives and Agnew, the other former WMC gold mine.

At the latter, Gold Fields is developing a new underground mine on the Kim lode, beneath the existing Waroonga pit. Agnew produced around 200,000 ounces in calendar 2001.

-By Stephen Bell, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-8-9245-6408

[ThaiGuru]

Bin mir fast ganz sicher, dass sich einige Gold Pessimisten im Thread heute gefreut haben, als der Gold Preis gefallen ist, doch wie es scheint, können sie sich jetzt wieder ärgern.





PS: Posting Schluss für die Preisfrage ist heute 24 Uhr 00 MEZ!
Seit Ihr so sicher, dass die richtige Antwort schon gepostet wurde, dass niemand mehr weiter versucht diese Frage zu lösen?

Den allfälligen Gewinner werde ich morgen im laufe des Tages bekanntgeben!




@keepitshort

Das Hotel hat keine Sterne, ist aber trotzdem toll, und ein Geheimtip. Das Frühstücksbuffet ist inbegriffen. Und fürs Essen wirst Du vermutlich wohl eh keine freie Zeit mehr haben, mitten im Nachtleben von Bangkok?

Ob Du wirklich gewonnen hast, erfährst Du morgen.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[fiesje]

#1977

Schon mal über alluminium nachgedacht!!!

Ich sach mal es ist Alcoa ..........wurde noch nich genannt hier


gruss fiesje

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_675052.html?menu=

Metals - Gold firms in late London trade on fund buying

Gold was firmer in late trade as fund buying offset the effects of a stronger dollar and Wall Street, dealers said.

The precious metal was still well underpinned given surrounding circumstances, especially the weak global economic outlook and the possibility of a US attack on Iraq.

"Gold is still reasonably firm although it was sold off slightly earlier," said Kamal Naqvi, analyst at Macquarie Bank.

But the selling was more apparent in Asian and European trading, it has eased since New York opened, he added.

It is clear that there is still interest in gold at these levels, Naqvi said.

At 4.27 pm, gold was up $0.35 at $323.65/oz.

The slump in world stock markets has been the single most important factor determining day-to-day price movements in the base metals, sapping confidence and depressing prices, said Lawrence Eagles at GNI.

Accordingly, today`s rebound saw metals rise.

Copper was down $0.50 at $1,482/tonne while Aluminium rose $1.50 to reach 1,308.50/tonne.

© AFX News


Story filed: 16:54 Friday 20th September 2002