OPEC warnt !!!! Das Oel wird knapp wenn Venezuela und Irak ausfallen ! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[M_B_S]

OPEC Warns of Shortfall If Iraq, Venezuela Stop Output
Thu Dec 19,10:14 PM ET


OPEC (news - web sites) officials say they wouldn`t be able to produce enough oil to meet demand should output cease from both Iraq and Venezuela, raising the prospect of significant price increases should the timing of crises in both these countries overlap, Friday`s Wall Street Journal reported.


Venezuelan oil exports have been stalled by a general strike in that South American country, now in its third week. Meanwhile, oil flow from Iraq could be blocked if the U.S. goes to war with the Persian Gulf nation, or if Iraq unilaterally decides to halt oil exports, as it has done in the past.


"Let`s remember, OPEC production capacity has its limits," said Rilwanu Lukman, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a recent interview.


A shortage of crude supplies would most likely trigger a decision by the Bush administration to release reserves from the country`s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, analysts said. The 26 member nations of the Paris-based International Energy Agency also hold substantial stocks of emergency reserves.


Still, experts said that without an OPEC cushion, oil markets would remain vulnerable to sharp increases, if not shocks.


The U.S. crude-oil benchmark, the January futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Thursday settled at $30.56 a barrel, up 12 cents. The price has jumped some 20% in the past month, as Venezuela`s oil exports dried up, and is up about 50% from a year ago. An early resumption of Venezuelan oil exports is looking increasingly unlikely, with protesters pushing for President Hugo Chavez to resign or call for early elections.


Venezuela produced 2.66 million barrels a day of oil in November, and Iraq 2.39 million barrels a day, or a combined total of 5.05 million barrels a day, according to the IEA. OPEC has unused capacity to produce an additional 3.3 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia, OPEC`s dominant player, could add an additional one million barrels a day within 90 days by taking certain emergency measures and drilling new wells. But even then, the total spare capacity wouldn`t be adequate to offset shortfalls from Venezuela and Iraq.


Wall Street Journal Staff Reporters Thaddeus Herrick in Houston and Bhushan Bahree in Paris contributed to this report.




Dow Jones Newswires
12-19-02 2214ET

[M_B_S]

Venezuela`s strike heads to gas pump Oil output is down to a trickle, with no end to the 3-week standoff in sight.


CARACAS, VENEZUELA, Dec 20, 2002 (The Christian Science Monitor via COMTEX) --
It`s midnight in the city center, and Gerald Pena has been in line for half an
hour. He`s inching closer to the gas pumps, but estimates it will take another
15 minutes before he is able to fill up his rusty hatchback.

"In the afternoon, it was worse," he says, leaning out the driver`s side window.
"It was taking three hours to get gas." So, Mr. Pena waited in line while most
Caracans slept.

Here in the world`s fifth-largest oil producer, supplies of gas, food, cash -
and patience - are running low. More than two weeks into a national strike aimed
at ousting President Hugo Chavez, people here are growing desperate. Venezuela
is a nation grinding to a halt.

American consumers, too, are just beginning to feel the pinch because it takes a
week for oil tankers from here to reach the United States, which imports some 13
percent of its oil from here. (In recent days, the cost of crude oil futures has
topped $31 a barrel). But analysts say a protracted strike will bring higher
prices at the pump, and a greater reliance on Middle East supplies at a time
when a war with Iraq could take even more oil out of production.

"There has been a very slow price reaction, that`s true," says Sarah Emerson,
managing director of Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. "But the
disruption will become increasingly serious in the next two or three weeks as we
begin to look for alternative supplies and at strategic reserves."

Before the strike, Venezuela was producing about 3 million barrels a day, 12 to
15 percent of the OPEC output. Currently, it is producing less than 400,000
barrels per day.

"That`s a significant problem for the oil supply all over the world," says
Fernando Martinez, Venezuela`s former transport minister, now in business for
himself in Caracas. "And it`s especially critical at this moment, with the
world`s concerns over Iraq."

Other members of the Organization of American States (OAS) have offered to make
up Venezuela`s canceled petroleum deliveries to foreign clients. And the US
Energy Department approved requests this week from several oil companies to
delay delivery of crude oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

For his part, President Chavez is attempting to restart idle oil refineries
while fighting for his political career. Experts say that without the support of
the oil industry - considered the pride of Venezuela - Chavez is in deep
trouble.

In a rambling speech yesterday, Chavez vowed to fire more of the "coup-plotting
oil elites" who are leading the shutdown of the government`s oil company,
Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

Chavez`s comments came hours after the Supreme Court ordered the government to
relinquish military control of the capital city`s police force, which the
military has had since Nov. 16, and return control to anti-Chavez Mayor Alfredo
Pena.

But the strike at PDVSA is the key. PDVSA produces 87 percent of the country`s
oil and gas, and accounts for 70 percent of the government`s revenues.

The price of gas in Venezuela is regulated and thus remains stable, but supplies
are dwindling and lines are growing. The country has few gasoline-storage
facilities because no one ever expected an oil-flush nation would need them.
Other important sectors of the economy, such as mining, require natural gas for
production - and without it they are being forced to shut down. In addition,
many domestic commercial flights have been canceled.

Other businesses are being affected indirectly. Dr. Martinez says he just got
off the phone with a manager at a major Venezuelan bank who is unable to
transport money because he can`t find diesel fuel for the trucks.

"All segments of the economy are feeling it very strongly, in spite of what the
government says," he says. "They know that this is very critical."

As more and more shops shut down in support of the strike, worried residents are
stocking up on groceries and other necessities. To prevent hoarding, Chavez
yesterday ordered military officials to seize any vehicle delivering gas or
food. Opposition leaders claim they are allowing enough basic supplies through
their blockades to meet the population`s needs. But there is talk of power
outages in parts of Caracas. And every day there are protests and marches in the
streets.

Ricardo Hausmann, an economics professor at Harvard University and former
Venezuelan planning minister, says the situation was inevitable. The economy has
been in a tailspin since Chavez took power in 1998, contracting 15 percent - a
full 7 percent of that coming this year alone.

"This is completely unprecedented for us," he says, "because essentially we have
a president who`s trying to lead a country in a radical course for which he has
no mandate: destroying the economy and a sense of shared values."

Mr. Hausmann says it`s hard to imagine a resolution to the crisis with Chavez
remaining in power. He believes the president, in true Latin American fashion,
wants to be overthrown rather than beaten at the ballot box.

Chavez`s opponents, including a broad coalition of businesses, labor unions, and
media groups, are calling for early elections. He has rejected such calls
(including one from the Bush administration last week), noting that the
Constitution doesn`t allow a vote until August.

The OAS is attempting to mediate but with little success to date. Russia and
Brazil have offered to mediate, too. Concern is growing that the crisis may turn
violent.

While the opposition against the left-leaning Chavez swells, some Venezuelans
are still strongly behind him. They say his mandate for power came in 2000 when
he was reelected with 57 percent of the vote.

"It`s the coup plotters` fault that we are in this situation. They should all be
sent to Miami," says Gilberto Arvelo, an electrical engineer who has finally
reached the gas pump and is filling his shiny SUV. "The majority of the country
is satisfied with Chavez."

Polls, however, show otherwise. Where the president used to command 80 percent
support, he now garners about 30 percent. Those numbers could fall even further
as the lines for gas grow even longer.

* Material from the wire services was used in this report.


By Kris Axtman
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor


(c) Copyright 2002. The Christian Science Monitor





SUBJECT CODE: WORLD

[Kastor]

Ich sag nur
Teton Petrolium!

Kastor

[Bommel1]

Macht nichts. Bush und Blair greifen alle an, Rüstungsetat ist doch schon aufgestockt.

[cakarkhan]

So bedauerlich der Krieg auch ist, kurz nach Kreigsausbruch wird die Sache schnell erledigt sein und das Öl wird schon nach kurzer Zeit Rekortiefwerte erreichen, das ÖL WIR BILLIG WIE NIE ZUVOR.
Aber erst nach Ausbruch des Krieges. Im Vorfeld steigt der Ölpreis, vielleicht bis sich die Niederlage abzeichnet.

Ich rede nicht über die politischen und anderen Aspekten.
Ich persönlich finde diesen Krieg unsinnig und dumm.
Aber das ÖL wird einen Boom auslösen, nach dem Krieg.

[M_B_S]

@ carkarhkhan

Wenn es dann noch nutzbar ist ....

IRAK-KRIEG

USA befürchten Strategie der verbrannten Erde

Die Vereinigten Staaten erhöhen den Druck auf den Irak. Schon im Januar sollen die Truppen im Golf massiv verstärkt werden. US-Geheimdienstler warnen unterdessen vor Plänen Saddam Husseins, der im Falle einer Invasion zu einer Strategie der verbrannten Erde greifen werde.


DPA

Irakische Ölraffinerie: Saddam droht mit Verwüstungen


Washington - Die Armee sei angewiesen worden, bis zu 50.000 weitere Soldaten auf eine Entsendung in die Golf-Region vorzubereiten, verlautete aus US-Kreisen. US-Präsident George W. Bush habe aber noch keine Entscheidung über die Verlegung der Truppen getroffen. Auch ein Datum stehe im Falle einer Entsendung noch nicht fest, hieß es. Am Donnerstag wollen US-Außenminister Colin Powell und der Uno-Botschafter der USA, John Negroponte, die USA ihre Einschätzung über den irakischen Rüstungsbericht geben. Diese Bewertung könnte über Krieg und Frieden entscheiden. Die Regierung wolle die Arbeit der Uno-Waffeninspektoren im Irak weiter verfolgen.
Bush hat bereits einen flexiblen Plan für eine umfassende Invasion im Irak gebilligt, an der bis zu 250.000 Soldaten beteiligt sein könnten. Wie aus den US-Kreisen verlautete, könnte die Offensive jedoch von einer weitaus geringeren Zahl von Soldaten eingeleitet und von massiven Luftangriffen begleitet werden. Die USA haben nach offiziellen Angaben derzeit 15.000 Soldaten in dem Gebiet nahe des Irak und insgesamt etwa 60.000 in der Region stationiert. Auch zwei Flugzeugträger sind in der Reichweite für Angriffe auf den Irak bereits in Position. Es wird erwartet, dass Großbritannien sich an einem Militärschlag mit einem Flugzeugträger und Bodentruppen beteiligt. Die Regierung von Tony Blair hatte angekündigt, im Januar mehr Truppen in den Golf zu schicken.

Sollte es zu einer Invasion der Amerikaner im Irak kommen, will Saddam Hussein Ölfelder, Kraftwerke und Lager mit Nahrungsmitteln zerstören lassen und dies den US-Truppen zur Last legen. Dies verlautete aus US-Geheimdienstkreisen. Sollte Saddam einen bevorstehenden Sturz befürchten, werde er vermutlich chemische und biologische Waffen gegen die Invasionstruppen, Israel, Kuweit und seine eigenen Landsleute einsetzen. Von den Geheimdienstquellen war nicht zu erfahren, woher die Informationen über die angeblichen Pläne Saddams stammten. Saddam hatte bereits im Golfkrieg 1991 die irakische Truppen angewiesen, auf ihrem Rückzug vor der US-geführten internationalen Streitmacht Dutzende Öl-Anlagen in Kuweit und im Südirak in Brand zu setzen. spiegel.de

Und dann ? 50 - 100 $ das Barrel !

[Pennerglueck]

!

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[cakarkhan]

MBS

Das hat Saddam auch in Kuweit gemacht, bevor der Rückzug kam. In Kuweit fliesst das Öl trotzdem.
Zudem galube ich nicht das Saddam soweit kommt, denn dieser Krieg wird schnell erledigt sein. Die Amerikaner dürfen sich kein Risiko leisten.

gruss