Heinerle hat ja gestern groß und breit erklärt....... - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[heinerle64]

warum es, zumidestens "noch nicht" runter geht, ich bin natürlich auch kein hellseher, aber diese unten angeführte Page ist schon recht hilfreich (mit heutigen Beispiel), kostet 50 US$ im Monat und rechnet sich auf jeden Fall.




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Market Tells Evening Edition by Rainsford Yang

October 19th, 2003 11:00am ET



Stock averages staged a healthy retreat Friday, relieving some technically
overbought conditions. The 5-bar RSI for the Nasdaq had closed over 75 once
again at Thursday`s close, and the CBOE equity put/call ratio`s 10-day
average was (and still is) holding below the .60 mark. As I discussed in
Tuesday`s column, these setups are generally reliable short-term sell
signals. Friday`s drop sent the 5-bar RSI for the Nasdaq back under 50,
although the equity put/call ratio remained in market-negative territory,
closing at a low .46. Combined with the high SPX put/call ratio also
recorded Friday, and it appears we could see a bit more follow through on
the downside before the bottom.

That said, I would be looking to buy into this dip in anticipation that the
upside gap from October 3rd will not be filled this week. One of the
strongest arguments against the gap being filled is the unusually bullish
TRIN5 readings recorded by the Nasdaq recently. We`ve just recently come off
a string of eight consecutive days with a Nasdaq TRIN5 under 4.0. As I
pointed out in my October 13th column, available in the archives, this long
a series of low readings implies strong buying pressure is at work. And this
type of buying doesn`t simply disappear overnight. As I mentioned in that
10/13 column, the "bullish TRIN5 setup...is often met with an initial 2-4
day dip before buying pressure reasserts itself", and this is what we
experienced in the second half of last week. Typically, buying pressure will
resurface soon after the 2-4 day dip, implying any further weakness early
this week should represent a buying opportunity, with the market most likely
making another run at last week`s highs as the week unfolds.

Nasdaq TRIN5 under 4.0 for Five Consecutive Days
10/13/03... Nasdaq ??? two weeks later
09/03/03... Nasdaq +1.2% two weeks later
06/03/03... Nasdaq +3.4% two weeks later
04/23/03... Nasdaq +2.1% two weeks later
11/09/01... Nasdaq +6.9% two weeks later
10/11/01... Nasdaq +6.4% two weeks later
08/23/00... Nasdaq +1.4% two weeks later
06/08/00... Nasdaq +2.6% two weeks later
02/10/00... Nasdaq +2.2% two weeks later
01/20/00... Nasdaq +0.3% two weeks later
12/08/99... Nasdaq +12.6% two weeks later

The Specialist Short Ratio rose to 33.2% this past week from its ultra-low
28.2% reading the prior week. If next weekend`s reading also comes in below
35%, it would be the sixth week out of the past seven that we`ve seen a
reading below the key 35% level, typically a strong signal of higher prices
over the long-term. Consecutive readings under 35% are typically found near
significant market bottoms. The reasoning is that specialists have been
forced into buying stock week after week as the public bets heavily on the
short side. Since the public is invariably wrong about the stock market`s
prospects, this long period of accumulation by specialists and selling by
the public typically comes right near significant bottoms in the market.
Since 1970, there have only been nine other instances in which the
Specialist Short Ratio came in below 35% in six of the past seven weeks. In
every case, the S&P500 was trading higher both three and six months later...

Specialist Short Ratio <35% six out of seven weeks
07/03/03... S&P +1.1% three months later
03/14/03... S&P +18.5% three months later
10/04/96... S&P +7.9% three months later
07/19/96... S&P +9.8% three months later
09/22/95... S&P +6.0% three months later
10/07/94... S&P +0.9% three months later
12/09/88... S&P +5.1% three months later
06/08/84... S&P +7.4% three months later
06/18/82... S&P +12.8% three months later

This setup would also fit in with the recent cluster of 400+ new highs we`ve
seen recently on the Big Board, which implies a similar outcome for stocks
heading into early next year. The one indicator still not confirming the
long-term bullish case yet is the S&P Institutional Money Flow. This past
week, institutions shorted another 6,000 S&P futures contracts, bringing
their total net short position up to 18,000. This tells us that we`ll most
likely experience another weekly selloff in the not-too-distant future,
similar to the week after September`s triple witching expiration, which will
provide institutions the opportunity to unload shorts recently established
and move to a net long position. Such a drop is unlikely to occur this
coming week given the bullish TRIN5 setup, but it could begin the last week
of October or first week of November, and following a likely rally this
week, could very well bring the market back down to current levels or a bit
lower. I don`t see the market going significantly lower, mainly because if
the upside gap from 10/3 isn`t filled this week, then we can make an
educated guess that the low price on the day prior to the gap (SPX 1013)
won`t be hit anytime over the following three weeks (see my 10/15 column for
details.)

Bullish Signs
Total Short Interest making lower lows
Market Vane Bullish Consensus holding over 50%
Specialist Short Ratio holding below 35%
SPY Money Flood on 10/1
S&P500 daily trend is up (higher highs)
Cluster of 400+ New Highs on the NYSE

Bearish Signs
Institutions short S&P futures
Institutions short Nasdaq futures
MNX Open Interest Spread making lower lows

Short-term Setups
(10/17) S&P 1-3 day sell: SPX put/call ratio



View the complete Evening Edition w/ DataSheet at...
http://www.astrikos.com/private/datasheet/101903.txt

[TribalStatistic]

@ Heinerle

Warum immer Geld bezahlen für die Prognosen die man auch leicht selbst stellen kann?
Früher oder später liegen die auch falsch, das kann man auch selbst tun .

Dann muss man auf niemanden schimpfen das man dem noch Geld hinterhergeworfen hat.

Patrick

[landingzone]

@Tribal

so könnte man es sagen

Andererseits doch recht interessant, wie standhaft nach wie vor Sentimenttrading betrieben wird. Da wird doch glatt jedes Würstchen mit Röntgengeräten auf Reste schlechter Laune durchleuchtet. Ich biete mich gerne an, damit der Dax noch auf 15000 kommt.