"Twilight in the Dessert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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and the World Economy"

Matthew Simmons im Interview
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Matthew Simmons, Chairman
Simmons & Company International
and author of "Twilight in the Desert:
The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy"

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den öl thread bei wo mit vielen infos findet ihr hier
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/threadpag…

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Schon erstaunlich wie viele Bücher zur Peakoil-Problematik es im englischsprachigem Raum gibt.

Hier bei uns ist das ganze immer noch kein Thema. Wobei ich das Gefühl habe, dass es in den USA wohl auch nur auf Insiderzirkel beschränkt ist.

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die amis machen sich auch mehr gedanken wie man es lösen kann
Hmm...I think we should send handwritten notes to all those people in France, Germany, and Spain who must be agreeing to give up driving their cars. And all those people in India who were going to buy new cars? Sorry, you`re walking.

aus:
See you at $65. King Fahd, Hummers, and Horrific Explosions

Greg`s note: When I arrived bleary-eyed at Whiskey HQ early Monday morning, I saw that Sean Brodrick from the Sovereign Society had sent me a nice e-mail explaining the current situation with crude oil - so I asked his permission to send it to you...

Whiskey & Gunpowder
August 6th, 2005
by Sean Brodrick
South Florida

BLAMING MONDAY`S buck-a-barrel spike in oil prices on the death of Saudi Arabia`s King Fahd -- as many market observers tried to do - is like blaming a logjam on one particular log. There is so much going on now that is bullish for oil prices: nuclear saber rattling from Iran - falling production in the North Sea - rising consumption - you name it. And each new development seems to light another fuse under oil prices.

For example, last week saw a horrific explosion and fire at BP`s refinery in Texas City, so you might have missed the even worse oil-related fire taking place on the other side of the world. An oil platform off the western coast of India burst into flames after a mobile rig hit the platform, causing, as Marvin the Martian would say, an "earth-shattering KA-BOOM." It looks like something out of a Hollywood action movie. I didn`t know they made explosions that big in real life:


Bottom line, India will have to find 110,000 barrels of oil per day somewhere else while they build a new platform and float it into place (and, hopefully, surround it with a big rubber bumper in case another mobile rig comes floating by).

And then there`s China.

Oh, I know, I know. You all think I`m obsessed with China. You think China couldn`t possibly ramp up its energy demand the way I`ve been talking about, don`t you? Well, let`s look at some facts...
Now that the U.S. has almost filled its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil bears have been collaring people and telling them that this will take oil demand off the market. Problem is, China is starting a strategic petroleum reserve of its own -- 101 million barrels, or just 20 days` worth of present consumption, but it`s a start. China`s first set of SPR tanks are completed, and it`s going to start filling them, according to the Oil & Gas Journal. So choke on that, oil bears! Meanwhile, China is adding new refinery capacity by the ton! New refinery capacity will be some 634,000 bpd (barrels per day) this year... If you add those new refinery production figures for 2005 -- to the amount China will be sucking off the market to fill its SPR -- you get about 700,000 bpd. Add that to growing U.S. demand, and you get an additional 1.2 million bpd of oil sucked off the market by the end of the year But here`s the funny thing -- total global demand growth is expected to be just 1.3 million bpd by the end of the year. Hmm...I think we should send handwritten notes to all those people in France, Germany, and Spain who must be agreeing to give up driving their cars. And all those people in India who were going to buy new cars? Sorry, you`re walking. I mean, how else could there be no other demand growth anywhere else in the world? Unless, of course - the International Energy Agency is wrong about its forecast for global energy growth! Wrong, wrong, wrong, I tell you. Those guys couldn`t forecast the candles on their own birthday cakes, for God`s sakes! Oh, and India plans its own SPR. Did you know that? It hopes to stockpile 45 days` worth of consumption by the end of 2006.

And now for the final piece. Want to see something really scary?

You know you want to...

What this is a picture of is $65 oil in the near term and probably $80 oil longer term. Momentum, as measured by MACD, is turning up just as crude oil prepares to make an assault on recent highs.

I`d say that`s scary, at least if you`re driving a HUMMER or Expedition or some other gas guzzler.

And if oil pulls back a bit before making another assault on those highs, I`d consider that a buying opportunity.

See you at $65.

Sean Brodrick
Editorial Director
Sovereign Society