checkAd

    Jasmin ueber 100% Gewinnchanche da rehabilitation court ruled that JAS could be taken out - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

    eröffnet am 15.07.06 09:58:39 von
    neuester Beitrag 28.07.06 05:33:49 von
    Beiträge: 5
    ID: 1.071.360
    Aufrufe heute: 0
    Gesamt: 869
    Aktive User: 0


     Durchsuchen

    Begriffe und/oder Benutzer

     

    Top-Postings

     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.07.06 09:58:39
      Beitrag Nr. 1 ()
      Jasmin ueber 100% Gewinnchanche da rehabilitation court ruled that JAS could be taken out

      hallo, hier eine sehr interressante aktie mit guten gewinnchancen von 50-100% es lohnt sich sehr dies zu lesen. dividendenrendite vorhersage für diese jahr noch 12%. leider kann ich die ausdrucksvollen grafiken nicht mit einfügen, doch wenn jasmin ende des jahres aus der rehab kommt und dann wie beschrieben 0,07 baht mindestens an dividende zahlt wird der kurs explodieren. ganz abgesehen von dem hohen buchwert und den hohen gewinnen sowie das an die börse bringen von jts im september. viel spass beim lesen der information von der scb bank in thailand die diese studie nach ihrem besuch bei jasmin erstellte.


      Tuesday, June 20, 2006
      Jasmine International (JAS)
      Downside risk limited
      Local price: Bt0.47
      Target price: Bt0.72
      Mkt cap: B3.91bn (0.08% SET)
      Sector: Communications (9.27% SET)

      • Our visit with JAS last week reveals that despite being in
      rehab, operations and financials are strengthening to the
      point where downside risk is seen to be limited; plus,
      there are two triggers for share price rise.
      • Possible dividend after exiting rehab, with yield of 12%.
      • New fixed-line license for Triple T Broadband provides
      more business opportunities for TT&T and JAS’s group.
      Recently, JAS increased stakes in TT&T to 30% from 27%.
      • It is trading at a deep discount to book value though
      already in the black. Warrants are out of the money, so
      we see no trigger for exercise and subsequent dilution.

      Company profile
      Jasmine International (JAS) was established in 1982 as an
      engineering and management consultancy company and was
      listed in 1994. Via diversification and restructuring it has
      become a telecom holding firm with plans for further
      investment in the telecommunications and information
      technology businesses. All subsidiaries and affiliates can be
      put into three key business groups.
      3 Key businesses
      Business Company % holding Services
      1) Network &
      service
      provider
      Acumen 100 - Time Division Multiple
      Access (TDMA) domestic
      satellite network
      (concession ended April
      2006)
      - Integrated Satellite
      Business Network (ISBN) or
      VSAT (concession ends June
      2006)
      - Awarded ISP license type I
      Jasmine Submarine
      Telecommunications
      (JSTC)
      100 - Providing submarine fiber
      optic cable on the east and
      west coasts of Thailand (two
      concessions ending 2011)
      Jasmine Internet
      (JI)
      65 - Internet service provider
      (license ended Mar 06,
      replaced with license for
      Acumen)
      2) System
      Integration
      Jasmine Telecom
      Systems (JTS)
      76 - Providing turnkey
      telecommunications
      businesses
      3) Fixed line
      operator
      TT&T Plc (TT&T) 26.6 - 1.5 mn line telephone
      network in provinces
      (concession ends October
      2018)
      Source: SCBS
      The Bhodaramik family has been the major shareholder of JAS
      since it was established, but its holding has been reduced over
      time and has been stable at 15-20% over the past two years.
      Major shareholders (April 2006)
      % Holding
      Mr. Pete Bhodaramik 18.2
      Bulakul family 7.3
      Somers (U.K.) Limited 3.7
      Thai NVDR Co., Ltd. 3.5
      Others 67.3
      Total 100
      Source: SET
      Still in rehabilitation, but financials strengthening
      In 2004, the rehabilitation court ruled that JAS could be taken
      out of the rehabilitation group. However, creditors holding
      10% of total debt did not approve JAS’ rehabilitation plan and
      appealed for reversal of the ruling.
      Timeline
      Event
      Aug 2002 JAS and its subsidiaries Jasmine International Overseas
      (JSTC) file rehabilitation court
      Aug-Sept 2003 Rehabilitation court agreed to JAS rehabilitation plan
      Feb 2004 JAS filed to exit rehabilitation court
      Mar 2004 A group of creditors appeal to higher court to reverse
      ruling of the rehabilitation court
      Source: SCBS
      JAS has been waiting for the Supreme Administration Court’s
      ruling for over two years; this is the court of last resource and
      no further appeals are possible. While it expects the court’s
      ruling to be favorable (and to be released in 3Q06), such cases
      are unpredictable in Thailand.
      Though companies in the rehab group are generally thought to
      be in financial distress, in truth JAS’ financials have improved
      substantially over the past two years. As of March 2006, total
      equity was Bt8.9bn, surging from a negative of Bt492mn in
      2002. Total debt has been slashed by 60% from Bt14bn to
      Bt5.6bn (all in local currency), with payments scheduled for
      the next 7-8 years. Net debt to EBITDA was 0.7x, far superior
      to the communication sector’s 2.5x.

      In its rehabilitation plan, there was no cash restriction on
      capex or investment apart from payment of a dividend. While
      the company did not confirm its dividend plan for after it gets
      out of rehab, we expect a dividend (its last one was in 1996),
      as cash flow from operations estimated at Bt2bn per year is
      more than enough to cover normal annual capex of Bt300-
      400mn, and cash on hand is ample at Bt4.5bn with D/E ratio
      of 0.9x.
      If JAS is able to exit rehab by end-2006, we estimate a
      minimum dividend of Bt0.07 based on estimated 2006 earnings
      of Bt1.1bn with 50% dividend payout (its policy minimum).

      Increasing stakes in TT&T
      Since 2004, JAS has had plans to bundle its group’s products to
      offer integrated service, but has made no substantial move in
      that direction. Recently, subsidiary JSTC acquired 4.4% in
      The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions
      expressed herein reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only. It is not to be construed as an offer,
      or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any securities. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. We or our associates may have an
      interest in the companies mentioned herein. Page 2 of 2
      Tuesday, June 20, 2006
      TT&T for Bt325mn (paying an average of Bt2.94/ share in line
      with TT&T’s market price). This was the first increase in JAS’
      TT&T stake since reducing its holding from 36% in 2004. We
      feel that this could lead to further acquisition or even a
      merger in the future in order to gain increased efficiency in
      network utilization and reduce conflict of interest, as both
      TT&T and JAS target a leading position in the Internet access
      market.
      At the same time, this increases JAS’ exposure to the telecom
      reform theme, which is most relevant to telephone services –
      both cellular and fixed-line. We believe TT&T has an excellent
      chance to turn around at a faster speed with a new license in
      hand, and developments in telecom regulations could also
      lead to concession conversion talks. TT&T is trading at a 52%
      discount to our target of Bt6. Based on a stake of 30%, TT&T is
      worth Bt0.33 per JAS share at market price and this doubles to
      Bt0.7 per JAS share at our fair price.

      Trading at a low P/BV range
      The graph below indicates that P/BV began to stabilize in July
      2005 at 0.4-0.5x, which also implies strong support. At the last
      close, JAS is trading at a 2006 P/BV of 0.4x. Though we expect
      earnings to drop in 2006-2007 because of the ending of
      concessions for TDMA and ISBN projects under Acumen, its
      other businesses are profitable and we expect book value to
      continue to go up to Bt1.17 at end-2006, up 15% YoY from
      Bt1.02 in 2005. This has not factored in the upside gain from
      listing of JTS (deadline by Sept 2006). At an IPO price of Bt3.5
      and the 57% held by JAS, JAS’ book value could increase by
      Bt1bn or add another Bt0.12 per JAS share at end 2006.


      One reason for the deep discount to book value could be
      concerns over dilution resulting from warrant exercise. As of
      March 2006, there were 6,191mn warrants and 96mn ESOP.
      JAS-W and JAS-W2 can be exercised from now through the end
      of 2008-2009.
      JAS warrants
      JAS-W JAS-W2 ESOP 2002
      Issue date Jul-99 Sept 03 Apr 02
      Life (years) 10 5 5-8
      Issued price (Bt) 0.1 0.05 0
      Units (mn) 3,336 5,520 134
      Exercise price (Bt) 0.334 0.5 0.66-1.96
      Exercise ratio 1:1 1:1 1:1
      Exercise period Every 3 months
      from Sept 99 to
      maturity (2009)
      Every 3 months
      from Dec 03 to
      maturity (2008)
      Every 3 months
      from Jun 02 to
      maturity
      Exercised (% of total) 65% 9% 28%
      Source: SCBS
      Assuming all warrants are exercised (excluding ESOP), shares
      outstanding will leap 74% to 14,511mn from 8,320mn, diluting
      2006 EPS by 43% and lowering book value per share by 25%. On
      the other hand, exercise will give JAS cash of Bt2.9bn,
      equivalent to Bt0.2 per share.
      Impact on 2006 earnings if all warrants are exercised
      Current Warrant exercise % Chg
      Estimated earnings 2006 (Bt) 1,150 1,150 0
      EPS (Bt) 0.14 0.08 (43)
      Outstanding shares (mn) 8,320 14,511 74
      Total equity (Bt mn) 9,637 12,538 30
      Book value (Bt) 1.2 0.9 (25)
      PE 2006 (x) 3.2 5.6 75
      P/BV 2006 (x) 0.4 0.5 34
      Source: SCBS

      In general, triggers to warrant exercise are either approaching
      expiration or being “in the money” (warrant price + exercise
      price less than parent price). For JAS, both triggers are absent
      – there is at least two years to expiration and the warrants are
      out of the money (warrant price + exercise price are higher
      than parent price). The graph below shows that around
      2,000mn warrants were exercised from August 2003 to April
      2004, triggered by being “in the money”. Since then, few have
      been exercised. Given its improving financial position as well
      as upside from telecom reform, we believe investors would
      rather play the warrants for capital gain rather than exercise
      them.


      Forecasts and Valuation
      FY Dec 03 04 05 06E 07E
      Sales (Btmn) 5,796 6,371 6,655 na na
      EBITDA (Btmn) 2,784 3,356 3,545 na na
      Core profit (Btmn) 1,130 1,194 941 1,150 1,050
      Net profit (Btmn) 4,244 1,145 865 na na
      Core EPS (Bt) 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.13
      Net EPS (Bt) 0.62 0.14 0.10 na na
      DPS (Bt) - - - - -
      BVPS (Bt) 0.80 0.89 1.02 1.17 1.28
      Net DE (x) 1.40 0.72 0.11 na na
      Core ROAE (%) 45.8 18.6 11.8 12.7 10.3
      Sector ROAE (%) 20.3 21.1 17.8 16.3 19.0
      At current prices
      SCBS core PER (x) 2.8 3.3 4.2 3.4 3.7
      SCBS Sector PER (x) 17.0 14.4 15.7 16.3 13.3
      Price / BV (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
      Dividend yields (%) - - - - -
      EV/EBITDA (x) 3.9 2.7 1.4 na na
      At target prices
      SCBS Sector PER (x) 18.5 15.7 17.2 18.5 15.7
      Creditors
      appeal to court
      Court agrees
      to JAS’s plan
      ;)
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.07.06 17:07:40
      Beitrag Nr. 2 ()
      @herrn dieter 1

      na wieder mit empfehlungen, zum gluceck nicht mit dem grossen blabla von damals ! was statt den 10000% gewinn fette verlsute gebracht haben, aber inzwischen verstehen sie ja wohl,,, wie man optiosscheine berechnet,oder ??????:D
      naja das hat wohl alles keiner fuer ernst genommen:D
      mich kraut es noch heute vor den damaligen postings von ihnen:D

      JASMINE
      hochspekulativ !!
      verbesserung deiner aussage
      dividendenrendite vorhersage für diese jahr noch 12%
      100%ig N E I N !!!!!!!!!!!
      operative gewinne N E I N !!!
      dept restrutering und bilanzumnbuchungsgewinne ja !!!
      rund um kurse von 0,40 -0,42 baht kann man als hochspekulative postion etwas beimischen, mit einem kursziel im naechsten aufwaertstrend von 1,00 thb,,,,,
      die bilanz ist schwach, das EK niedrig,der BV ist glaube ich nicht das wert was er geschrieben wird.die TT&T beteiligung ist weietr ein fassohne boden
      fazit auf diesem niveau ist die aktie fuer zocker und risikofreudige eine suende wert,ein moegl. kursziel ,nur bei starker boerse 1,00 thb ,ein totalverlust ist zz auszuschlessen
      Avatar
      schrieb am 16.07.06 05:31:38
      Beitrag Nr. 3 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 22.605.831 von lapamita am 15.07.06 17:07:40hallo, jasmin war am 2.12.05 noch bei 0,38 und schon am 16.1.06 bei 0,66 baht das allein sind eine steigerung von 72%.danach wurde jasmin dann wieder bis zum 23.2.06 durch die thai spekulatoren runter auf 0,45 gedrückt um dann wieder bis 18.5.06 auf 0,59 anzusteigen.dies waren wieder 30% steigerung.
      lapalmita du schreibst selbst, eine steigerung bis zu 1 baht, was einen prozentualem gewinn von 126% vom jetzigen kurs 0,44 entsprechen würde wäre drin. meine meinung die aussichten sind sehr gut einen schnellen gewinn von nur 10-20% einzufahren. sie sind um so besser wenn sie wie von der siam commercial bank in ihrem angeführten bericht im 3 quatal 2006 durch das gerichtsurteil die rehab verlassen und das ist sehr wahrscheinlich. man sieht dies auch an den hohen umsätzen und die thai spekulatoren lieben jas. in der anlage unten alle buchhaltärischen angaben über jasmin viele grüße dieter1



      STOCK TYPE
      Click for the printer friendly of this page.


      +JAS (1617) -- PRICE INFORMATION (250 DAYS) --FY 31DEC Profit(K) EPS*+
      |SECTOR:ICT |High: 0.66 Average: 0.47|Y2005 864,590 0.10|
      |MARKET:SET |Low : 0.37 Volatility: 52%|Y2004 1,144,484 0.14|
      |-------------------------------------------------|Q1/2006 434,524 0.05|
      |Foreign Holding: 12.65%|PAR CHANGE FROM TO |Q4/2005 239,337 0.03|
      |Avail Shr: 3,024,375,42908/01/2004 10.00 1.00|Q3/2005 230,471 0.03|
      |Queue Shr: 0| |Q2/2005 10,253 0.00|
      |-------------- MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS ---------------|* FULLY DILUTED |
      |1.MR.PICH POTHARAMIK 34.21%|4QMA EPS*: 0.11|
      |2.JASMIN INTERNATIIONAL OVER OVERSEACH CO. 12.64%|Par Value: 1.00|
      |3.MR.ANUPONG POTHARAMIK 6.39%|Book Value*: 1.02|
      |4.THAI NVDR CO.,LTD. 3.65%|Reg.shrs: 15,485,673,420|
      |5.CLEARSTREAM NOMINEES LTD. 2.79%|Common+Pshrs 8,319,877,163|
      +-[[ Please Page Down for Rights and Dividend ]]---- As of 14 Jul 2006 ------+
      +-[[JAS ]] [[Rights and Dividend]] --------------------------------------+
      | R | NEW SHARES TYPE OLD:NEW PRICE XR DATE PAYMENT DATE |
      | I | 5,519,704,770 W 1.00:1.00 0.01 15/10/2003 13/02/2004 |
      | G | 333,600,000 W 1.00:1.00 0.10 01/04/1999 23/07/1999 |
      | H | 222,400,000 C 1.00:2.00 10.00 09/03/1995 05/04/1995 |
      | T | |
      |---+------------------------------------------------------------------------|
      | D | BOARD DATE BAHT PERIOD END PERIOD XD DATE PAYMENT DATE |
      | I | 13/03/1997 1.500 6 31/12/1996 01/04/1997 14/05/1997 |
      | V | 09/08/1996 1.000 6 30/06/1996 21/08/1996 06/09/1996 |
      | I | 21/03/1996 2.000 6 31/12/1995 03/04/1996 29/05/1996 |
      | D | 07/09/1995 1.000 6 30/06/1995 18/09/1995 06/10/1995 |
      | N | 21/03/1995 1.350 12 31/12/1994 08/05/1995 24/05/1995 |
      +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

      website:http://www.asiaplus.co.th
      e-Mail:support@asiaplus.co.th
      telephone: 0-2680-1000


      STOCK TYPE
      Click for the printer friendly of this page.


      JAS [Balance Sheet]-------------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      CASH & CASH EQUIVALENTS 4,448 4,613 4,871 3,588 3,985
      SHORT-TERM INVESTMENTS 600 355 547 559 548
      TRADE A/C & NOTES RECV-NET 1,245 1,440 1,278 1,639 1,796
      TRADE A/C & NOTES RECV-OTHERS 1,188 1,316 1,187 1,372 1,567
      TRADE A/C -RELATED PARTIES 144 214 182 360 319
      LESS: PROVISION 86 91 91 92 90
      UNBILLED RECV/ UNEARNED FEE 396 475 451 387 313
      UNBILLED RECV 396 475 451 387 313
      NET S/T LOANS TO RELATED PARTY 20 20 22 1 14
      INVENTORIES/REAL ESTATE 365 252 159 207 143
      OTHER CURRENT ASSETS 600 579 449 393 372
      JAS [Balance Sheet]-------------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 7,673 7,734 7,777 6,774 7,172
      INV EQUITY METHOD OF ACCTg 4,164 3,919 3,795 3,693 3,760
      OTHER LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS 92 66 72 68 26
      OTHER LONG-TERM LOANS 0 0 0 1,264 1,223
      PROPERTY/PLANT/EQUIPMENT, NET 1,353 1,231 1,143 2,579 2,466
      INTANGIBLE ASSETS 454 323 320 4 3
      OTHER NON-CURRENT ASSETS 3,595 3,672 3,576 2,211 2,091
      TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 9,657 9,211 8,906 9,819 9,570
      TOTAL ASSETS 17,330 16,945 16,683 16,593 16,742
      BANK O/D & LOANS FROM FIN INST 329 335 308 389 298
      TRADE A/C & NOTES PAYABLE-NET 792 913 737 726 644
      JAS [Balance Sheet]-------------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ACCRUED PROJECT COSTS 0 224 60 133 156
      CURRENT PORTION OF L/T LIAB 1,008 1,104 1,146 1,223 1,170
      LIAB U DEBT RESTRU &REHAB 232 323 413 511 487
      OTHERS 775 782 733 712 683
      SHORT-TERM LOANS FROM RELATED 234 8 7 7 4
      ADVANCES FROM CUSTOMERS 129 319 245 211 128
      OTHER CURRENT LIABILITIES 963 435 464 503 747
      TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 3,455 3,338 2,968 3,193 3,147
      OTHER LONG-TERM LOANS 5,893 5,627 5,490 4,913 4,663
      L/T LOANS-NET OF CURR PORTION 0 3,353 3,324 2,966 2,799
      LIAB U REHAB PLAN 2,383 2,275 2,166 1,947 1,864
      JAS [Balance Sheet]-------------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      OTHERS 3,510 0 0 0 0
      OTHER NON-CURRENT LIAB 0 0 0 0 0
      TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIAB 5,893 5,627 5,490 4,914 4,663
      TOTAL LIABILITIES 9,348 8,965 8,458 8,106 7,810
      AUTHORIZED -PREFERRED SHARES 200 200 200 200 200
      AUTHORIZED -COMMON SHARES 15,486 15,486 15,486 15,486 15,486
      PAIDUP -COMMON SHARES 8,319 8,320 8,320 8,320 8,320
      RIGHTS, WARRANTS AND OPTIONS 26 26 26 26 26
      PREM(DISC) ON COMMON STOCKS -1,757 -1,758 -1,758 -1,758 -1,758
      UNREALISED LOSS ON INV VALUE 82 60 66 62 26
      TRANSALTION GAIN(LOSS) 3 -3 -2 -3 5
      JAS [Balance Sheet]-------------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      OTHERS ITEM 0 0 0 0 0
      TOTAL RETAINED EARNINGS (DEF) 974 984 1,215 1,454 1,889
      - APPROPRIATED 28 28 28 71 71
      LEGAL RESERVE 28 28 28 71 71
      - UNAPPROPRIATED 946 956 1,187 1,383 1,817
      EQUITY TO CO'S SHAREHOLDERS 7,647 7,629 7,866 8,102 8,508
      MINORITY INTERESTS 335 350 359 385 423
      SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 7,982 7,979 8,226 8,487 8,931



      JAS [Income Statement]----------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      SALES & SERVICES REVENUE 1,721 3,506 5,049 6,655 1,610
      OTHER INCOMES 79 105 123 256 178
      INTEREST AND DIVIDEND INCOME 11 34 49 83 30
      GAIN ON EXCHANGE RATE 4 0 0 0 123
      GAIN ON SALES OF INVESTMENTS 56 0 56 56 10
      OTHERS 8 71 18 117 15
      PROFIT SHARING 0 0 0 0 67
      TOTAL REVENUES 1,800 3,612 5,172 6,911 1,855
      COST OF SALES/SERVICES 993 2,035 2,871 3,778 892
      SELLING AND ADMIN EXPENSES 125 243 376 579 168
      OTHER EXPENSES 0 139 128 132 0
      JAS [Income Statement]----------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      LOSS ON EXCHANGE RATE 0 139 128 132 0
      DIRECTORS' REMUNERATION 1 4 5 7 2
      LOSS SHARING 37 285 405 507 0
      TOTAL EXPENSES 1,156 2,706 3,786 5,003 1,062
      PROFIT(LOSS) BEFORE INT & TAX 644 906 1,386 1,908 793
      INTEREST EXPENSES 129 261 384 506 116
      INCOME TAX 111 210 323 475 198
      PROFIT (LOSS) AFTER TAX 404 434 680 927 478
      MINORITY INTEREST 20 40 55 63 44
      NORMALISED PROFIT 385 395 625 865 435
      NET PROFIT (LOSS) 385 395 625 865 435
      JAS [Income Statement]----------------[ACCUMULATED : Million Baht]--------
      Quarter (Consolidate) 2005/1 2005/2 2005/3 2005/Y 2006/1
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.05

      website:http://www.asiaplus.co.th
      e-Mail:support@asiaplus.co.th
      telephone: 0-2680-1000
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.07.06 07:16:04
      Beitrag Nr. 4 ()
      guten morgen jasmin ist in den letzten 10 tagen um knapp 10% gestiegen.:laugh: wenn die vorhersage der siam commercial bank zutrifft sind noch über 60% gewinn möglich.
      Our visit with JAS last week reveals that despite being in
      rehab, operations and financials are strengthening to the
      point where downside risk is seen to be limited; plus,
      there are two triggers for share price rise.
      • Possible dividend after exiting rehab, with yield of 12%.
      • New fixed-line license for Triple T Broadband provides
      more business opportunities for TT&T and JAS’s group.
      Recently, JAS increased stakes in TT&T to 30% from 27%.
      • It is trading at a deep discount to book value though
      already in the black. Warrants are out of the money, so
      we see no trigger for exercise and subsequent dilution.

      JAS has been waiting for the Supreme Administration Court’s
      ruling for over two years; this is the court of last resource and
      no further appeals are possible. While it expects the court’s
      ruling to be favorable (and to be released in 3Q06), such cases
      are unpredictable in Thailand.

      In its rehabilitation plan, there was no cash restriction on
      capex or investment apart from payment of a dividend. While
      the company did not confirm its dividend plan for after it gets
      out of rehab, we expect a dividend (its last one was in 1996),
      as cash flow from operations estimated at Bt2bn per year is
      more than enough to cover normal annual capex of Bt300-
      400mn, and cash on hand is ample at Bt4.5bn with D/E ratio
      of 0.9x.
      If JAS is able to exit rehab by end-2006, we estimate a
      minimum dividend of Bt0.07 based on estimated 2006 earnings
      of Bt1.1bn with 50% dividend payout (its policy minimum).

      TT&T is trading at a 52%
      discount to our target of Bt6. Based on a stake of 30%, TT&T is
      worth Bt0.33 per JAS share at market price and this doubles to
      Bt0.7 per JAS share at our fair price.

      we expect book value to
      continue to go up to Bt1.17 at end-2006, up 15% YoY from
      Bt1.02 in 2005. This has not factored in the upside gain from
      listing of JTS (deadline by Sept 2006). At an IPO price of Bt3.5
      and the 57% held by JAS, JAS’ book value could increase by
      Bt1bn or add another Bt0.12 per JAS share at end 2006.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 28.07.06 05:33:49
      Beitrag Nr. 5 ()
      guten morgen jasmin jetzt schon von 0,42 auf 0,48 und zeitweise auf 0,49 bei sehr hohen umsätzen, knapp 15% plus. ich freue mich wenn die research abteilung recht behalten würde mit ihrer kursprognose von 0,72 baht
      viele grüße dieter1


      Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben


      Zu dieser Diskussion können keine Beiträge mehr verfasst werden, da der letzte Beitrag vor mehr als zwei Jahren verfasst wurde und die Diskussion daraufhin archiviert wurde.
      Bitte wenden Sie sich an feedback@wallstreet-online.de und erfragen Sie die Reaktivierung der Diskussion oder starten Sie
      hier
      eine neue Diskussion.
      Jasmin ueber 100% Gewinnchanche da rehabilitation court ruled that JAS could be taken out