LYNAS - auf dem Weg zu einem Rohstoffproduzent von Hightech-Rohstoffen (Seite 5197)
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ISIN: AU000000LYC6 · WKN: 871899 · Symbol: LYI
4,0100
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+1,34 %
+0,0530 EUR
Letzter Kurs 03.05.24 Tradegate
Neuigkeiten
18.04.24 · Der Aktionär TV |
23.01.24 · kapitalerhoehungen.de |
22.01.24 · wallstreetONLINE Redaktion |
Werte aus der Branche Rohstoffe
Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
---|---|---|
9,8360 | +17,66 | |
1,0950 | +16,00 | |
2,4000 | +14,83 | |
552,55 | +13,76 | |
33,17 | +13,52 |
Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
---|---|---|
185,00 | -9,76 | |
0,6700 | -14,92 | |
43,97 | -16,90 | |
12,000 | -25,00 | |
46,27 | -98,01 |
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Ein Kommentar von heute auf HC, dabei darf man IHMO nicht vergessen das die Rohstoffe aus "Seltenen Erden" dringenst für die Bewältigung der weltweit weiterhin stark ansteigenden Umweltprobleme benötigt werden so wie auch für (fasst) alle gegenwärtigen wie zukünftigen Hightech Produkte.
@ ein schönes WE
Grüsse JoJo
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=104575…
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 54.5c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4760326 (Start of thread) Views: 40
Posted: 20/11/09 17:04 Stock Price (at time of posting): 54.5c Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Stock Held From: 203.217.xxx.xxx
LYC presentation at the Hong Kong conference this week confirms that there is nothing but upside for this stock.
From an earnings point of view this is how I see it based on existing contacts and projections
Year 1 11000tons at US$15/kg less cash costs US$5/kg equates to US$110m of EBITDA
Year 2 22000tons equals US$220m of EBITDA using the same base case projections
Now based on the HK presenatation and all recent forecasts from a variety of independant experts there is projected to be "scarcity" over the next 5 years and if you see the presentation given by ARU recently they are projecting a RE price of US$25/kg. I beleive this projected shortfall has been vindicated by the significant lobbying which sunk the CNMC deal.
What does US$25/kg of earnings mean well this is big!
At US$25/kg less cash costs of $5/kg x 22000tons equates to EBITA of US$440m which on a multiple of 10 for a 20plus year mine life at MT Weld with no new discoveries and excluding upside like the phosphate mean we have an Enterprise Value of US$4.4bill with no debt (stage 2 can be cashflowed from year 1/2 earnings. This equates to a share price target of US$2.65. Remember also that LYC has 12year tax free status in Malaysia so this cashflow will be available for dividends or further growth.
Whats the downside? There isnt any as the contracts are already in place with a locked in floor price and unlimited upside which just shows that customers are just keen to lock in reliable alternatives to the Chinese in what are fast growing high technolgy green industries that need RE.
At the moment the share price is at not far above the cost that is to be spent to get the whole show up and running so what an opportunity to get in at close to the ground floor.
Happy days ahead for all LYC holders
@ ein schönes WE
Grüsse JoJo
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=104575…
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 54.5c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4760326 (Start of thread) Views: 40
Posted: 20/11/09 17:04 Stock Price (at time of posting): 54.5c Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Stock Held From: 203.217.xxx.xxx
LYC presentation at the Hong Kong conference this week confirms that there is nothing but upside for this stock.
From an earnings point of view this is how I see it based on existing contacts and projections
Year 1 11000tons at US$15/kg less cash costs US$5/kg equates to US$110m of EBITDA
Year 2 22000tons equals US$220m of EBITDA using the same base case projections
Now based on the HK presenatation and all recent forecasts from a variety of independant experts there is projected to be "scarcity" over the next 5 years and if you see the presentation given by ARU recently they are projecting a RE price of US$25/kg. I beleive this projected shortfall has been vindicated by the significant lobbying which sunk the CNMC deal.
What does US$25/kg of earnings mean well this is big!
At US$25/kg less cash costs of $5/kg x 22000tons equates to EBITA of US$440m which on a multiple of 10 for a 20plus year mine life at MT Weld with no new discoveries and excluding upside like the phosphate mean we have an Enterprise Value of US$4.4bill with no debt (stage 2 can be cashflowed from year 1/2 earnings. This equates to a share price target of US$2.65. Remember also that LYC has 12year tax free status in Malaysia so this cashflow will be available for dividends or further growth.
Whats the downside? There isnt any as the contracts are already in place with a locked in floor price and unlimited upside which just shows that customers are just keen to lock in reliable alternatives to the Chinese in what are fast growing high technolgy green industries that need RE.
At the moment the share price is at not far above the cost that is to be spent to get the whole show up and running so what an opportunity to get in at close to the ground floor.
Happy days ahead for all LYC holders
Heute wieder auf TH geschlossen und auch die 54 cent damit bestätigt, es scheint mir das wir vor einem guten Aufwärtstrend stehen.
malsehen wie es die nächsten Wochen bis zum Jahresende weitergeht.
mfg
impyer
malsehen wie es die nächsten Wochen bis zum Jahresende weitergeht.
mfg
impyer
Auf der Seite von Lynas bei der ASX gibt es für den 18. 11. 09 zwei pdf über die Hong Kong Rare Earth Conference, auf Seite 23 von 24 steht:
The Rare Earth project has recommenced and initial production anticipated for first half of 2011.
Nun das ist später als viele dachten, aber es mögen da auch Überlegungen zum Verlauf des Preisanstiegs mitspielen!
The Rare Earth project has recommenced and initial production anticipated for first half of 2011.
Nun das ist später als viele dachten, aber es mögen da auch Überlegungen zum Verlauf des Preisanstiegs mitspielen!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.415.836 von JoJo49 am 19.11.09 07:49:14Hi... nett was Curtis sagt.... aber wir steigen nur in einem zumindest stabilen Gesamtmarkt.... mit stabilen Rohstoffpreisen aufgrund eines steigenden Industriebedarfs...
wie seht ihr die nächsten 2 Jahre?
Inflation, Stagnation, Stagflation, Deflation...?
Ich glaube nicht, dass sich Lyc vom Gesamtmarkt abkoppeln kann...
Hoffentlich gehts die nächsten Jahre hoch und wir befinden uns in einem Bullmarket.... aber da scheiden sich ja die Geister....
wie seht ihr die nächsten 2 Jahre?
Inflation, Stagnation, Stagflation, Deflation...?
Ich glaube nicht, dass sich Lyc vom Gesamtmarkt abkoppeln kann...
Hoffentlich gehts die nächsten Jahre hoch und wir befinden uns in einem Bullmarket.... aber da scheiden sich ja die Geister....
Zusammenfassung von einem User aus dem HC-Thread zu Mr. Curtis seiner HK-Präsentation: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=104320…
key summary points from ceo (rhys1)
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 54c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4750063 (Start of thread) Views: 194
Posted: 18/11/09 22:18 Stock Price (at time of posting): 52.5c Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Stock Held From: 58.160.xxx.xxx
I have noted below Curtis's summary to his HK presentation. The most important point is MINERAL SCARCITY which translates to demand being much greater than supply and therefore sharp increases in prices. Whether it lifts the share price in the short term, I don't know, but it certainly will give it a big kick at some stage in the next 3-6 months. Simply speaking, you have to be in the story NOW and hold. The liquidity event is coming to an end which should lead to buyers taking the front running over the sellers.
4 key points from his presentation. Hope I am not preaching the obvious but thought it was worth highlighting.
2010 IS FORECAST TO BE A YEAR OF APPLICATION GROWTH AND INVENTORY RESTOCKING. Simply speaking they expect a big increase in demand for rare earths as there is an increase in production of goods that use rare earths and a restocking (after a significant destocking in 2009 which sent prices to the floor).
SUPPLY IS A FUNCTION OF AVAILABLE PRODUCTION NOT RESOURCE IN THE GROUND. He is highlighting that Lynas will be ready to meet demand (ie produce) before others which is a significant advantage
MINERAL SCARCITY IS LIKELY TO BE A CHARACTERISTIC OF THE INDUSTRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 YEARS. Demand greater than supply, Lynas ready to supply, Lynas get to take advantage of a sustained period of demand and high prices
FUTURE RARE EARTHS SUPPLY CHAIN MUST BE ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND. Lyc are industry leaders here
I must say it does look very attractive now. SP cheap, sellers drying up, funding sorted, supply position perfectly timed and prices increasing.
Good luck to all
schließe mich an
Grüsse JoJo
key summary points from ceo (rhys1)
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Back)
Code: LYC - LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED ( 54c | Price Chart | Announcements | Google LYC)
Post: 4750063 (Start of thread) Views: 194
Posted: 18/11/09 22:18 Stock Price (at time of posting): 52.5c Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Stock Held From: 58.160.xxx.xxx
I have noted below Curtis's summary to his HK presentation. The most important point is MINERAL SCARCITY which translates to demand being much greater than supply and therefore sharp increases in prices. Whether it lifts the share price in the short term, I don't know, but it certainly will give it a big kick at some stage in the next 3-6 months. Simply speaking, you have to be in the story NOW and hold. The liquidity event is coming to an end which should lead to buyers taking the front running over the sellers.
4 key points from his presentation. Hope I am not preaching the obvious but thought it was worth highlighting.
2010 IS FORECAST TO BE A YEAR OF APPLICATION GROWTH AND INVENTORY RESTOCKING. Simply speaking they expect a big increase in demand for rare earths as there is an increase in production of goods that use rare earths and a restocking (after a significant destocking in 2009 which sent prices to the floor).
SUPPLY IS A FUNCTION OF AVAILABLE PRODUCTION NOT RESOURCE IN THE GROUND. He is highlighting that Lynas will be ready to meet demand (ie produce) before others which is a significant advantage
MINERAL SCARCITY IS LIKELY TO BE A CHARACTERISTIC OF THE INDUSTRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 YEARS. Demand greater than supply, Lynas ready to supply, Lynas get to take advantage of a sustained period of demand and high prices
FUTURE RARE EARTHS SUPPLY CHAIN MUST BE ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND. Lyc are industry leaders here
I must say it does look very attractive now. SP cheap, sellers drying up, funding sorted, supply position perfectly timed and prices increasing.
Good luck to all
schließe mich an
Grüsse JoJo
mal schauen ob sich jetzt ein Trend abzeichnen lässt, heute habn wir wieder auf TH geschlossen und der Umsatz ist auch stabil um die 10Mio, bisher sieht alles sehr gut aus, das wir weiter steigen.
mfg
impyer
mfg
impyer
kommentarlos zur info:
lynas heute im aktionär:
kurzer bericht/kursziel 0,60 €
erwarteter umsatz 2010/ 50 mio €
lynas heute im aktionär:
kurzer bericht/kursziel 0,60 €
erwarteter umsatz 2010/ 50 mio €
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.381.217 von privateer am 13.11.09 12:31:30so, hab mir das Interview wieder kurz im Schnelldurchgang angehört:
- Produktion soll im 1. Halbjahr 2011 starten
- Curtis geht bis dahin von steigenden REE-Preisen aus
- man geht davon aus, bis dahin weitere Offtake-Agreements abzuschliessen
- Phase 2 soll mit dem Cash-Flow aus Phase 1 finanziert werden, wie ich es verstanden habe wird hierzu allerdings keine Zeitangabe gemacht
- Produktion soll im 1. Halbjahr 2011 starten
- Curtis geht bis dahin von steigenden REE-Preisen aus
- man geht davon aus, bis dahin weitere Offtake-Agreements abzuschliessen
- Phase 2 soll mit dem Cash-Flow aus Phase 1 finanziert werden, wie ich es verstanden habe wird hierzu allerdings keine Zeitangabe gemacht
!
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