Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 159)

[gimo211]

Ist das nicht grandios...!!!

Damit kommen wir langsam in die 500 Millionen bbls recoverable Region.

Ich glaub, in 10 Jahren werden wir zurückschauen und können zurecht mit stolz sagen: "da waren wir von Anbeginn dabei..."

[gabbo62]

NEWS NEWS NEWS

Der nächste Volltreffer


September 26, 2013 02:00 ET

Africa Oil Discovers Oil at Ekales Prospect in Kenya


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Sept. 26, 2013) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to announce that the Ekales well has discovered oil in Block 13T in Kenya Petrophysical analysis of wireline logs and formation sampling indicates a potential pay zone of 60 to 100 meters which will be confirmed by flow testing. This discovery further de-risks and represents the fourth consecutive significant oil find in this basin. The well is located in Block 13T in Kenya and the Company holds a 50% working interest with operator Tullow Oil Kenya holding the remaining interest and operatorship.

The Company is also pleased to update progress on four additional exploration wells in Kenya and Ethiopia.

The Agete-1 well, also in Block 13T, was spud on September 16 and is currently drilling ahead. This prospect is 7 kilometers north of the Twiga discovery and along the basin bounding fault trend referred to as the string of pearls by the Company. It has a pre-drill prospective resource best estimate of 276 million barrels of recoverable oil with a chance of success of 54% (Gaffney, Cline & Associates July 31, 2013).

The Bahasi-1 well in the Kenya Block 9 Bahasi prospect is expected to spud in the next few days and Africa Oil will operate this well on behalf of its 50% joint venture partner Marathon Kenya Limited B.V., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO), utilizing the Great Wall drilling rig #190. The prospect is a large anticlinal feature in the Lower Cretaceous Anza rift and is on trend with the Paipai discovery made early this year in Kenya Block 10A. The pre-drill prospective resource best estimate of this prospect is 320 million barrels of recoverable oil (Gaffney, Cline & Associates July 31, 2013). Under the terms of the farmout agreement, Marathon Oil will pay for drilling this well.

The Tutule-1 well was spud on September 21 in the South Omo Block in Ethiopia and will test the Tertiary rift play in a well-defined horst block feature adjacent to, and 4 kilometers east, of the recently drilled Sabisa-1 well which proved the basic elements of a hydrocarbon system including reservoir, seal and source. Partners in the South Omo block are Tullow Oil as operator (50% working interest), Africa Oil (30% working interest) and Marathon Ethiopia Limited B.V., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil Corporation (20% working interest).

The El Kuran well is being operated by New African Global Energy and is expected to spud in October. It is a Jurassic fractured carbonate play on a large anticlinal feature that had previously been drilled by Tenneco in the early 1970's and had tested light oil at low rates. The primary goal of this well is to prove commercial flow rates. Based on the results of the initial well, fracture stimulation and horizontal drilling may be considered.

Two additional lightweight rigs for testing and shallow drilling operations are also being mobilized into northern Kenya and are expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2013 will bring the total rig count to seven in the Company's blocks in Kenya and Ethiopia. A Full Tensor Gradiometry ("FTG") survey is also currently underway in the Company's wholly owned Rift Basin Area in Ethiopia and is expected to be completed in October.

Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented, "We are thrilled with the 100% success rate of the drilling program to date in northern Kenya and with 10 additional leads and prospects in this basin we can expect additional discoveries in the immediate future. We are equally excited about the basin opening wells being drilled in two new areas and the pace of exploration ahead with 6 active rigs operating full time. This discovery gives us further incentive to aggressively push forward plans for development studies of this world class project in conjunction with our partners and the Government of Kenya."

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/africa-oil-discover…

[Popeye82]

Zitat von texas2: Selber halte ich mich an die 10% success rate im E&P Geschäft.

Das macht schätze ich mal ziemlich Sinn. Aber wie "gleichst Du das dann aus", um für Dich ein 'attraktives Chance Risiko Verhältnis" zu finden. Das muuuss ja dann eigentlich über die Anzahl der Ziele gehen, oder?

Mir ist (auch deswegen), wie zum Beispiel auch Biotechnologie, irgendwo einiges zu riskant/unberechenbar, da die "Wahrscheinlichkeiten irgendwo ziiiemlich extrem sind". Ich kenne mich beim Öl und Gas auch viel zu wenig aus, aber im Vergleich finde ich die "Rohstoffbuddler" weitaus kalkulierbarer, zumindest was erstmal das reine suchen und finden von Vorkommen angeht. Und auch damit ist es noch schwer genug, aber da ruht dann eben auch der Hauptgrund drin, warum ich mich bisher zu Öl und Gasfirmen insgesamt 'nicht richtig durchringen' konnte.

Habe aber einen riesen Respekt davor was Du, Gabbo, Drill-A-Hill, Motz, Gimo und andere hier zu Öl- und Gasunternehmen einbringen.

Gruß
P.

[nicolani]

so makaber es auch klingt, ohne die zwischenfälle sähe es hier wohl anders aus, aber das geopolitische risiko war, ist und bleibt vorhanden, es war wohl ein anschlag gegen die öl-lobby, mein mitgefühl an die hinterbliebenen! das kapital kennt keine gnade, buy on "bad news"!

[motz1]

Ein Beitrag zur Sicht der Charttechnik (solange niki noch im wohlverdienten Urlaub weilt ) mit Erwähnung des bevorstehenden Site Visits...

................


AOI – Lundin Group’s Africa Oil Could Test All-Time Highs, Technicals Say

Posted on September 23, 2013 by Tommy Humphreys

This morning Keith Hill’s Africa Oil (TSXV:AOI), which is developing oil discoveries in the East African Rift Basin System, said that the company suffered no injury during the weekend’s mall attack in Nairobi. We join Africa Oil in extending our prayers to those who remain affected by the tragedy.

Read: Africa Oil Reports on Security Situation in Kenya

Strong technicals

On a much lighter note, Africa Oil has been a big winner for investors as of late. While the company has appreciated approx. 1000% over the past three years, shares in AOI have rallied strongly from a April, 2013 bottom of $5.51 per share, and are now trading in the $8.40 range.

We had our CEO Technician take a look at the chart, and he thinks that if AOI breaks through resistance at $8.50, it could test new highs.


AOI.V_9.23.2013




Lundin Company

Africa Oil is a Lundin Group company. The Lundin’s are among the most successful mining and energy entrepreneurs in the world. Bloomberg covered the family’s Lundin Petroleum recently, saying it had comparable returns over the past decade to Apple Inc. (Source).

While Lundin Group IR queen Sophia Shane told us at the 2013 PDAC Conference in Toronto that it was Africa Oil’s intention to develop and then sell its assets to a major, the group’s success developing Lundin Petroleum, and others including Tanganyika Oil, give investors additional confidence in the event the company does not sell outright.

Site Visit

Multiple sources have confirmed Africa Oil is hosting a site visit to the company’s African operations this week and next. Analyst site visits, when combined with a credible management team and a good story (all of which AOI has in spades), can generate sufficient excitement to move a company’s share price.

We speculated last year that Lucara Diamond Corp., another Lundin Group company, would perform well following a site visit to that company’s Botswana mine. Additionally, we followed the same strategy with Ivanhoe Mines last month. Lucara is up over 70% since and Ivanhoe Mines nearly 30%.

There are many factors that could influence Africa Oil’s share price over the near term, so we’ll be staying on the sidelines for now, however the site visit, combined with a compelling chart, make the case for a double digit AOI coming soon.

http://ceo.ca/aoi-lundin-groups-africa-oil-could-test-all-ti…

[motz1]

Berichterstattung zur Situation in Nairobi bzw. Kenia mit Keith Hill:

.......................

In wake of Nairobi attack, Canadian businesses in Africa evaluate safety

BRENT JANG AND IAIN MARLOW

VANCOUVER and ACCRA, GHANA — The Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Sep. 23 2013, 7:08 PM EDT
Last updated Monday, Sep. 23 2013, 7:37 PM EDT


Keith Hill’s home in Nairobi is only three kilometres from the terrorist attack at a shopping mall in the Kenyan capital, but the energy executive prefers to talk about Africa as a place of opportunity.

After the attack, the chief executive officer of Vancouver-based Africa Oil Corp. tightened security measures for his employees in Kenya’s countryside. Despite the tragedy, Mr. Hill said it’s important to get on with business. Company officials are keen to continue oil exploration and prepare a development plan for discoveries.

Africa Oil’s field operations in Kenya are running smoothly, he said, adding that he is staying in touch with law authorities to ensure calm. “I wouldn’t expect people in my company to work here if I wasn’t willing to bring my own family here,” Mr. Hill said in an interview Monday from Nairobi. “My relatives all sent me e-mails, and I told them all that I’m fine.”

Since the assault, Canadian businesses operating in Africa are on heightened alert, and are likely to step up their security efforts. At the same time, business leaders say they can’t allow the threat of terrorism to impede their pursuit of the many opportunities Africa presents.

Mr. Hill, who lives in Nairobi with his wife and 20-year-old daughter, landed in the city on Saturday after a business trip, not long after gunmen launched their attack at the Westgate shopping mall. “I go there fairly regularly, as does my family,” he said. From their neighbourhood, residents reported hearing gunfire and explosions in the distance.

Mr. Hill has worked in 30 African countries since 1989, including the past seven years at Africa Oil.

The company has an office in Nairobi, but most its operations are in the countryside. It also has crude oil exploration assets in Ethiopia and the Puntland region of Somalia.

“Our biggest security measure is actually engaging with the local communities, and having the local communities wanting us to be there,” he said. “The best security you can have is by closely interacting with local communities and having them see the benefits of us being there. As long as we have the social licence to operate, we generally don’t have security issues in any the African countries where we operate.”

Mr. Hill said that while he takes security and safety seriously, terrorism knows no borders. “These types of terrorist attacks could happen anywhere in the world. The United States is not immune. The United Kingdom is not immune. In our opinion, the best thing to do is to keep moving forward,” he said.

There are vast differences between countries such as Kenya, which has a history of terrorism, and other countries in Africa like Ghana with more stable operating environments, said Tony Aubynn, chief executive of the Ghana Chamber of Mines, an industry association in Africa’s second-largest gold producer.

“I would not advise people who are trying to come [to do business in Africa] to be overly concerned about what’s happening in Kenya or elsewhere in Algeria,” Mr. Aubynn said, referring to the In Amenas gas plant attack in North Africa. “These things are not the order of the day. These are exceptional situations and they should not be seen as things that would be happening regularly in countries in the region.”

Kinross Gold Corp. emphasized that its West African operations in Ghana and Mauritania are on the other side of the continent from the attack that took place in Kenya.

“That said, wherever we operate, we maintain rigorous security standards and take appropriate precautions to ensure the safety of all personnel,” a Kinross spokesman said Monday.

Anirudh Gautama, a Nairobi-based consultant for East and Southern Africa with Ottawa-based infrastructure consultancy CPCS Transcom Ltd., said it is difficult to gauge how Canadian mining and energy firms in the region will react, given the nature of the attack in Kenya. Unlike in Nigeria, where militants have targeted oil and gas companies operating in the troubled Niger Delta, Mr. Gautama noted that the Nairobi attack seemed to be a response to the inroads Kenya’s military has made against the extremist al-Shabab group in neighbouring Somalia.

“In the immediate term, I would imagine that all companies will ramp up their security, as it’s absolutely imperative that [they] are seen as giving priority to the safety and well-being of their employees, be they indigenous or expatriates,” he said. “In the longer term, these companies, and indeed most foreign companies in Kenya, will be looking at the government of Kenya’s response to terrorism stemming from Somalia.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/internatio…

[motz1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.503.553 von Popeye82 am 23.09.13 19:14:45

Hallo Popeye82,

guter Punkt, ich muss gestehen mir die Aufstellung nicht durchgelesen zu haben. Mit deiner Vermutung liegst du vollkommen richtig, da werden Äpfel und Birnen vermischt.

Fakten:
- Es sind über 100 Leads & Prospects identifiziert
- Jeder einzelne Lead / Prospect hat auch eine spezifische CoS; und diese reichen mittlerweile bis >60% bei einzelnen Leads / Prospects (nicht bei allen quer durch die Bank!)
Meine Erklärung dafür: Die Prospects im Lokichar Basin (dort, wo bereits 3 erfolgreiche Bohrungen durchgeführt wurden) sind mit recht hoher Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit gesegnet - es sind geologisch identische Strukturen zu den 2 bzw. 3 Bohrungen, die bereits Erfolg brachten. So ist z.B. die erste erfolgreiche Bohrung ("Ngamia-1") an einer Faltung gebohrt. Jetzt gibt es aber auf der anderen Seite der Verwerfung nochmal "was zu finden" ("Ngamia-West"), dafür setzen AOI bzw. die Auditoren dann eine CoS von 64% an. Die Prospects innerhalb dieses Basins haben also eine deutlich höhere CoS als die restlichen im Portfolio (weil das damit noch reine wildcats sind, in deren Umgebung noch keine Funde erfolgt sind). Die geologische Gleichheit der Prospects ist grob der sogenannte "String of Pearls"...

- Interessant ist in dem Zusammenhang imho Slide 9 aus der aktuellen Unternehmenspräsentation von AOI: http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2013-09_AOIP.pdf
(sorry, ich kann aufgrund der Internetverbindung gerade keine Bilder uploaden)

Da erkennst du die in diesem Basin in den nächsten 6 Monaten geplanten Bohrungen - das sind 8 Bohrungen mit richtig netten CoS (obige Gründe). Das ist das Ergebnis, wenn die Liegenschaften dermaßen riesig sind - man muss sich um das Basin kümmern, nicht mehr um jede Bohrung .

Allein diese Prospects der kommenden 8 Bohrungen werden mit insgesamt rund 2 Milliarden Barrels (prospective Resources) geführt.

Das an sich ist für mich auch schon "geologisch medium gigantisch" in Kombination mit dieser CoS

[texas2]

Es gibt nicht wenige Geologen, die seit Jahrzehnten an die Höffigkeit des ostafrikanischen Grabenbruchsystems glaubten.
Verstärkt noch einmal durch die Funde im Jemen, im Sudan und zuletzt die einmalige Tullow Erfolgsreihe in Uganda.
Tullow hat den code geknackt, die Lundins haben schon immer an das große Ganze geglaubt.
Selber halte ich mich an die 10% success rate im E&P Geschäft. Durch die Uganda Erkenntnisse und weil Tullow/AOI gleich mit 3 Treffern ins Schwarze in Kenia angefangen hat wo Shell vor Jahren knapp daneben lag, denke ich dass bei AOI die Wahrscheinlichkeit mit den rund 100 prospects bei über 10% liegt, also eine überdurchschnittliche chance auf ein happy end ... IMHO

[abionaut]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.503.553 von Popeye82 am 23.09.13 19:14:45

Wenn man an einem Ölfass zwei mal bohrt und es kommt Öl, dann ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit nun mal etwas höher wieder auf Öl zu stoßen.

[Popeye82]

Zitat von gabbo62: KH mentions that it has 100 prospects with a hit chance of around 60% (his estimate)

Hallo,

Ich habe/hatte hier keine Aktien und werde voraussichtlich auch nie welche haben, aber mal eine Amateurfrage, lernen kann man ja überall : wäre das nicht so eine Art "geologisch medium gigantisch"??

Zum einen habe ich keine Ahnung wie er auf diese hohe Prozentzahl kommt, aber was ich bisher an 'Chance of Success' gesehen habe, die lagen in der Regel weit darunter. Ausserdem wird diese "Chance of Success" ja soweit ich weiss nicht nicht 'gesamtheitlich' gerechnet -also entweder Top oder Flopp, sondern die kommt vor jedem 'Prospect' erneut zum tragen.

Oder??

Gruß
P.