Auf welche brasilianische Ölfirma trifft die Beschreibung zu?

[Petronius]

SALVE!

Ich habe von Thommy_hl den Tipp bekommen, dass es sich um PetroTal Corp. handeln könnte.
Vielen DAnk auch von hier.

Petronius

[Petronius]

SALVE!

- Im Kontext des Nesletters wurde von Brasilien gesprochen
- Im Amazonas etwa 2018 angefangen
- 2P (proven and probable) reserves: 100 Mio
- peak production by 2026, followed by a plateau of between 20-25k barrels of oil per day (bopd) for 10-15 years after that
- Kleine Raffinerie, Pipeline zu Petrobras, Lastkähne
- 500 MIo MCap

[Petronius]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 74.303.259 von Petronius am 11.08.23 15:44:15

A seriously productive oil production company

The crude oil producer under review is situated in the depths of the Amazon (we really do go to the ends of the earth to find the best opportunities).

The company currently has more than a dozen operating wells in operation, and the plan is to double this number within the current oil field.

These wells are incredibly productive, meaning that although bringing a new well online costs between $12-15 million in upfront capital expenditure (capex), the payback period can be as little as three months.

In fact, from a geological point of view, it seems that the company really has a fantastic resource base. Their track record of bringing each of the new wells online from 2018 has been excellent, and their production outputs have continued to grow.

They have also been able to continue to increase their 2P (proven and probable) reserves: The available reserves are now three times more than they were in 2018 (now at close to 100 million barrels), despite the company having extracted significant quantities of oil during this time.

The current production plan has them reaching peak production by 2026, followed by a plateau of between 20-25k barrels of oil per day (bopd) for 10-15 years after that.

Not only is that a very long production profile, but from 2026 onwards, the capex requirements will drop very significantly as they no longer need to bring new wells online.

But for this company, the primary challenge is not producing oil or increasing their reserves; it is the logistics of getting that oil to market.

There are three ways in which the company has sold its oil historically:

To a local refinery
Via a pipeline to the state owned oil company
On barges along the Amazon.

The local refinery is pretty straightforward, but only has minimal capacity accounting for around 2k bopd.

The pipeline has significant capacity, up to 20k bopd, but has been beset by problems relating to sabotage. This had led to repeated shutdowns and an inability to make use of this export channel since late last year.

Although the pipeline is now operating again, the company has chosen not to start using it again until they have further clarity on the situation. (Although it is highly likely that the pipeline will become a viable alternative again at some point this year.)

The final and most productive export route has been via barges along the Amazon River. As of now, this route is accounting for almost 20k bopd of exports.

This is a tried and tested route, however the key challenge is the water level in the river. Last year, river levels dropped to the point that barge traffic needed to be reduced and each individual barge needed to carry less oil.

The company has taken some steps, such as increasing the number of barges available to them, to try and mitigate against this. But ultimately, river levels are not something they can control.

As you can see, this is a complicated logistical situation. However, even with no pipeline access and river levels as low as last year, the company believes they can average 14.5k bopd for the year, and this is their current guidance.

More importantly, they are significantly advanced in activating a number of other alternative export channels.

So with all that being said, where does that leave the financials?

The first thing we always look at is the balance sheet.

For a company that is exposed to volatile commodity prices, it is absolutely essential that the balance sheet is pristine, leaving it well placed to deal with a period of low prices.

This company certainly meets that criterion. There is no debt on the balance sheet, and, as of June 30th, they had a cash position of $75 million. The market cap of the company based on current prices is $500 million.

The enterprise value is $425 million; accounting for the net cash position the company is in of $75 million.

Based on the 2022 earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (​​EBITDA), the company would be on a 1.66x EV/EBITDA.

However, given the decline in oil prices, forward looking measures see the company trading at 1.93x EV/EBITDA.

The CEO has described the company as “a free cash flowing machine for years to come”. Even if we take oil at $75 a barrel and current guidance on production, the company will generate $54 million in free cash flow (FCF) this year.

And at current oil prices and production for the rest of the year more in line with the second quarter, that number could be as high as $129 million.

We should highlight that this is all happening against the backdrop of the company budgeting for $125 million in capex this year (the FCF numbers already deduct the capex spend). They have the ability to significantly reduce that number should oil prices decline and/or export capacity not be available.

The expected maintenance capex is only $25 million at peak production in 2026. That is an extra $100 million that flows to the bottom line relative to the current capex budget!

That is very attractive by any stretch of the imagination.

In addition, investors get to benefit from this in the form of a dividend (11.11% yield at current prices) and an active stock buyback program. The company intends to keep a liquidity buffer of around $50 million and pay out everything above that (after accounting for the capex).

In short, we’re looking at a long-term, sustainable cash flow stream underpinned by a strong balance sheet at a very attractive valuation…

[Petronius]

SALVE!

In einem Newsletter habe ich diese interessante Firmenbeschreibung gelesen.
Diese mittelgrosse Firma mit einem MCap von 500 Mio USD und keinen Schulden hate einige Ölquellen im Amazonas.

Wer könnte das sein ?

Petronius