SPAZ Analyse - Kursziel $52 - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[jlg]

SPAZ develops and licenses proprietary advanced audio signal processing
> technologies and products for use in consumer electronics and professional
> recording and film production, television broadcast, and PC game development.
> For the nine months ended 9/30/99, revenues fell 39% to $977 thousand. Net
> income applicable to Common totalled $47 thousand, vs. a loss of $3.5
> million. Results reflect a license agreement being converted into a flat fee,
> offset by the discontinuation of MDT.
>
> ******************
>
> Started By: GERBER
> Date: Aug 2 1999 11:31PM
> SPAZ Good Post from RB
>
> Valuation Analysis - $12 by next year
> I decided to do a little more due diligence on this stock. The stock appears
> to have taken a beating when the company was forced to convert many of their
> contracts to fixed fee licenses because of the need for cash to cover some
> ill timed product developments. This bump in corporate history appears to be
> behind them and DVD revenues should be again determined on a license fee per
> unit basis based on recent press releases. I decided to focus on the DVD
> market since that seems to be the area where they are achieving the most
> penetration. First let`s look at the 3/31/99 Financials and get some useful
> information. Gross Margin was over 99% of revenues. Operating expenses and
> other expense total $354K. Annualized X 4 and increased by 25% (raises, new
> hires, whatever?) is $1.8M.
>
> Now we need to guess what they are making per unit for each DVD video player
> manufactured using their technology. An appealing comparison is Gemstar
> International (GMST). GMST licenses the technology that uses the numeric code
> published in your TV program guide to record shows on your VCR. Although they
> operate in a mature market, GMST is trading at about 75 times 3/00 earnings.
> As recently as 7/15 they were trading at 93 times 3/00 earnings. There is no
> way determine from their financials what they get per unit shipped (Some of
> their licenses are flat fee based), but Hoover`s says that they receive a fee
> of a few dollars a unit. To me, a ôfew dollarsö is more than 2 and less than
> 5. I doubt SPAZ is receiving this much per unit (I could be wrong). In fact,
> let`s just use 75 cents per unit in this analysis to be conservative.
>
> Now we have to determine what part of the DVD player market SPAZ`s N-2-2
> product is used in. Some of the big names that are absent from their current
> list of licensees include Sony, Pioneer, and Sharp. Using a somewhat outdated
> information source, Sony has said it expects to control about 30% of the DVD
> player market (3/18/99 article on www.techweb.com) Pioneer holds about 15% of
> the US market and a slightly larger percentage of the worldwide market. Sharp
> looks to have less than 15% of the market. So let`s assume that licensed
> manufacturers will account for about 40% of the DVD players produced.
>
> Now we have to determine the size of the market. DVD players are becoming
> more mainstream and their market acceptance in accelerating. Several sources
> confirm that there will be about 4 million units in homes by the end of 1999
> with about 5,000 movie titles available. (7/9/99 article at
> www.dvdreview.com) Here`s the amazing part. Industry officials predict annual
> sales of DVD players will reach 60 million units in the year 2000 (7/28/99
> press release by Matsushita Electric). Note that the Message From the CEO on
> SPAZ`s website predicts that the potential market for 3-D audio (I`m assuming
> in all sound producing consumer products, while they appear to have a larger
> penetration in the DVD player market) exceeds 500 million units per year and
> he believes SPAZ controls about 15-20% of the market. The CEO has told us not
> to expect too much in the June quarter, but a solid impact on December
> numbers. Ignoring what results for 1999 will be and just looking ahead to
> 2000, if we take 60 million units X 40% X $.75 = $18M X 99% = 17.8 less $1.8M
> of cost = $16M less tax at 34% = $10.6M of net income. With 27.4 million
> shares outstanding, that`s $.39 per share. A 30 PE yields a stock price of
> $11.70. This is just the impact of income from their N-2-2 technology on DVD
> players. SPAZ has other technologies and also licenses to computer
> manufacturers and many other consumer audio products. They just entered the
> exciting MP-3 market.
>
> You can substitute whatever numbers you want in the above analysis to
> determine your estimate. Using the 500 million units in the CEO message, the
> 20% market share, $.75 per unit, and a low 30 PE, you get a stock price of
> over $52. This stock has the potential to make a significant move based on
> the outlook for their products even if the assumptions in the previous
> paragraph are overstated. And their momentum in new licensee wins seems to be
> accelerating. IMHO, an investor willing to hold this stock for a reasonable
> period of time stands to profit handsomely based on today`s price level.
> Good Investing
>
> GERBER
>
> *********************************************+
>
> SPAZ has had recent announcements for their 3D Audio products. Recently inked
> a deal with COMPAC to have the 3D audio product in the compac presario line
> of PC`s. Also an announcement that the summer olympics will be broadcast in
> Spatializer 3D sound....... This one could take off soon!
> Check it out!
>
> ***************************************
>
> REVENUES
>
> Revenue decreased to $324,000 in the three months ended September 30, 1999
> from $390,000 in the comparable period last year, a decrease of 17%. Revenue
> in the nine-months ended September 30, 1999 decreased to $977,000 from
> $1,588,000 in the comparable period last year, a decrease of 38%. Revenues
> include licensing and royalties pertaining to the licensing of Spatializer(R)
> audio signal processing designs, product development and evaluation fees at
> MultiDisc Technologies, Inc. and sales of professional recording systems and
> consumer products. The decrease in revenue results primarily from a flat fee
> royalty arrangement in the third quarter of fiscal 1998 for which there was
> no comparable license agreement in the current quarter, partially offset by
> increased running royalties on technology licensed for the DVD market. While
> unit sales of chips by third party foundries with N-2-2 enabled virtual
> surround sound increased approximately 50% over the prior quarter, per unit
> royalties declined based on volume pricing schedules, resulting in a slight
> increase in such revenue in the quarter. With volume targets now achieved,
> per unit royalties are anticipated to have stabilized and future revenue
> growth will be driven strictly by volume increases. The decrease in revenue
> for the nine months ended September 30, 1999 result from flat fee royalty
> buy-outs from two customers and a one-time technology evaluation fee for
> MultiDisc Technologies, Inc in the prior period for which there were no
> comparable revenue in the current period.
>
> GROSS PROFIT
>
> Gross profit decreased to $304,000 (94% of revenue) in the three months ended
> September 30, 1999 from $385,000 (99% of revenue) in the comparable period
> last year, a decrease of 21%. Gross profit for the nine-months ended
> September 30, 1999 decreased to $948,000 (97% of revenue) from $1,553,000
> (98% of revenue) in the comparable period last year, a decrease of 39%. Gross
> profit decreased due to the decrease in revenue and provisions for foreign
> sales rep commissions. Gross margin increased due to provisions for foreign
> sales rep commissions.
>
> OPERATING EXPENSES
>
> Operating expenses decreased to $239,000 (74% of revenue) in the three months
> ended September 30, 1999 from $1,480,000 (379% of revenue) in the comparable
> period last year, a decrease of 84%. Operating expenses in the nine-months
> ended September 30, 1999 decreased to $824,000 (84% of revenue) from
> $4,624,000 (291% of revenue) in the comparable period last year, a decrease
> of 82%. The decrease in operating expenses for the three and nine months
> ended September 30, 1999 results primarily from the impact of the
> restructuring initiatives implemented in the fourth quarter of 1998 and the
> discontinued operation of MultiDisc Technologies, Inc.
>
> General and Administrative
>
> General and administrative expenses decreased to $99,000 (30% of revenue) in
> the three months ended September 30, 1999 from $656,000 (168% of revenue) in
> the comparable period last year, a decrease of 85%. General and
> administrative expenses decreased to $311,000 (32% of revenue) in the
> nine-months ended September 30, 1999 from $1,823,000 (115% of revenue) in the
> comparable period last year, a decrease of 83%. The decrease in general and
> administrative expense result from the elimination of two executive positions
> and corporate office staff, the closure of the Newbury Park and Huntington
> Beach facilities and the suspension of activities at MultiDisc Technologies,
> Inc.
>
> Research and Development
>
> Research and Development expenses decreased to $73,000 (23% of revenue) in
> the three months ended September 30, 1999 from $611,000 (157% of revenue) in
> the comparable period last year, a decrease of 88%. Research and Development
> expenses decreased to $324,000 (33% of revenue) in the nine-months ended
> September 30, 1999 from $1,774,000 (112% of revenue) in the comparable period
> last year, a decrease of 82%. The decrease in research and development in the
> three and nine month periods result from the suspension of activities at
> MultiDisc Technologies, Inc. and staff reductions in research and development
> activities at Desper Products Inc.
>
> Sales and Marketing
>
> Sales and marketing expenses decreased to $67,000 (21% of revenue) in the
> three months ended September 30, 1999 from $213,000 (55% of revenue) in the
> comparable period last year, a decrease of 69%. Sales and marketing expenses
> increased to $189,000 (19% of revenue) in the nine-months ended September 30,
> 1999 from $1,027,000 (65% of revenue) in the comparable period last year, a
> decrease of 82%. The decrease in both the three and nine month periods is
> attributed to the suspension of activities at MultiDisc Technologies, Inc.
> and the elimination of four marketing positions at Desper Products Inc.
> primarily in the fourth quarter of 1998 to adjust expenditures to projected
> operating levels.
>
> NET INCOME (LOSS)
>
> Net Income increased to $33,000 (10% of revenues), $0.00 per share, in the
> three months ended September 30, 1999 from a net loss of $1,124,000 (288% of
> revenues), ($0.05) per share in the comparable period last year, an increase
> of 101%. Net Income increased to $47,000 (5% of revenue), $0.00 per share, in
> the nine-months ended September 30, 1999 from a net loss of $3,137,000 (198%
> of revenue), ($0.14) per share in the comparable period last year, an
> increase of 101%. The increased net income for the three and nine month
> periods is primarily a result of the decrease in operating expenses,
> partially offset by the decrease in gross profit.

[SPAZY]

von SPAZY, 11.01.00 20:06:57 343248
Reisebericht vom 10.01.00 in Los Angeles
20700 Ventura Boulevard, Suite 134
Woodland Hills ,CA 91364-2357 (Orsteil von Los Angeles)
Tel USA 818 227 3370
Fax [phone]
E-Mail [e-mail]

Gespraechsteilnehmer: Henry R. Mandell Spatializer
Andy "SPAZY "
(Ich kann aus Sicherheitsgruenden meinen Namen nicht angeben)
Wer mir nicht glaubt, dass ich da war, hier folgender Beweis,den nur jemand wissen kann, der mit H.Mandell gesprochen hat.
TOP NEWS !!!!
Spatializer zieht nach Sillicon Valley, (wo alle HIGH TECH Firmen Ihren Sitz haben,) um.
Exakte Adresse:
900 Lafayette St. 710
Santa Clara , CA

So nun zu den FAKTEN

1.Technik
Der 3 D Sound wurde mir mitels CD praesentiert
Ergebnis: Besonders bei DVD Playern ein Eindruck wie im echten Raum.Die Beschallung kommt aus allen Richtungen.
Zukunft pur !!!!
2.Was macht die Konkurenz bez. der Technik anders.
Es arbeiten im Prinzip alle an einem aehnlichen System.!!
Aber SPAZ hat seit 1995 Erfahrung mit dem System !!
Die Konkurenz wie z.B. SRSL (SRS Labs) hat einen Kurs von 9.25 $ !!!!!!!!
( am 10.01.00 )
Lt. H.Mandel fahren die Konkurenten sogar noch Verluste ein !!!!!!!!!
3.Wie verdient Spatializer Geld ????
Durch den Verkauf der Lizens des 3-D Systems an alle namenhaften Firmen Apple............ bis Toshiba
Bei jedem verkauften Geraet bekommmt SPAZ von dem Lizensnehmer Geld am Quartalsende !!!
4.Was ist mit dem Geruecht SONY Plattform fuer die Playstation
Keine Antwort wegen dem Boersengesetz in den USA.
Aber am 09.01.00 war H. Mandell auf der Elektronikmesse in Las Vegas , Wo ALLE NAMENHAFTEN Firmen vertreten waren. Ich habe die Visitenkarten von den wichtigsten Firmen gesehen,darunter war auch SONY
Vielleicht gibt es in Kuerze eine NEWS die ALLE ueberrascht !!!!
5.Wann kommen die 4 Q Zahlen ?
Dann, wenn alle Lizensnehmer wie Apple , Samsung, Mitsubishi, LG Electronics, ACER ,Hitachi,Matshushita,Marantz ....Ihre Lizensgebuehren bezahlen !!!
6.Wann geht SPAZ an die NASDAQ
Wenn ein Kurs ueber 4-5 $ konstant gehalten wird.
7.Wann kommt eine Vertretung nach Europa
Es wird daran gearbeit. Es fehlt noch das entsprechende Personal. Mit den Mitteln (1 Mio $ siehe NEWS vom 03.01.00)
wird Geld in die Firma gesteckt.
Neues Personal und Enwicklung neuer Produckte fuer die Zukunft.
Wer gut ist sollte sich bewerben !!!!(Mein TIP)
Potential in Europa WAHNSIN !!! Siemens. Phillips Grundig ........ !!!!! ?????????
8.Kursziel
Keine Antwort auf meine Frage wegen dem US Boersengesetz
Nach meiner Frage. Ich bin der Meinung 6$ bis 9$ wie die Konkurenz !!!! ???? Bis die Zahlen 4 Q kommen !!!
Antwort vielleicht !!! Aber das entscheidet der Markt NACH ANGEBOT und NACHFRAGE !!!!!!

9.Wie sieht die Zukunft aus !!!!
Nach den Kursschwaechen 1998 sind wir in die profitable Zone gekommen !!! Hauptsaechlich durch Aplle u.s.w. siehe Lizensnehmer !!
Wenn der DVD Markt explodiert ist Spatializer dabei !!
Weitere Zukunft sieht H.Mandell in die Digital-TV-Technologie !
Hier muss mann unbedingt ERSTER sein.!!
Ich denke er wird agressiv am Markt bleiben. !!!

Fazit;
Ich denke diese Aktie wird uns noch viel Spass machen.
Wer die Kursschwankungen Am OTC Bulletin MARKT nicht verkraftet, sollte schlafen gehen und sich im Jahr 2002
vielleicht ueber einen Kurs von 125 $ ?? oder sogar 225 $
freuen koennen.(Das entscheidet der Markt!)

Der Chart sieht gut aus
Denkt drann
DONT FIGHT THE TREND !!!!
Der zeigt nach OBEN
Die SHORTYS Sollten sich nicht die Finger verbrennen !!!

I AM LONG and I am Millionaer with SPAZ

Ihr solltet Euch auch mal Zietel US Kuerzel ZITL ansehen !!!884 002 in Berlin und Frankfurt
Ein Internetwert mit 2.5 $/Euro an der NASDAQ !!!!
1997 lag Zietel bei 62 $
1999 November 0.62
Am 10.10.99 an EINEM TAG von 1$ auf 7$
Mein Ziel 2000 das alte Hoch 62 $ !!!!!!
Ich mache im Board unter "Internetwert mit 2.5$" eine neue Seite auf !!!!

Bleibt GESUND und REICH

Euer Andy SPAZY
P.S. Ich schreibe ohne Umlaut weil mein Onkel sein USA- Computer keine Umlaute hat. !!!
Ich bin wirklich hier !!!!
Uhrzeit; 10.50 Uhr Los Angelas
Wetter: 20 grad Sonnenschein
In Venice Beach ist die Hoelle los !!!!

Also stong Buy

von SPAZY, 11.01.00 20:21:15 343293
Sory Zietel hat WKN 882 004

[kawasaki650]

Genau: bleibt gesund und reich!