Geht Nortel Networks denn nun Pleite?? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[LeoKreis]

Was ist nur mit dem Aktienkurs von Nortel Networks los?
Geht das Untenehmen denn nun Pleite?
Ich habe Angst um mein investiertes Geld!
Mir ist schon ganz schlecht!

Weiß jemand wie es bei Nortel zukünftig werden wir?

Ich brauche Gewissheit!

[matthiasch]

@Leo

Durch die vielen Aktiensplitts hat Nortel bei einem Stand von 2,4$ immernoch eine Marktkapitalisierung von 9 Milliarden US$. Daher geht der Kursverlust der letzten Monate voll in Ordnung.

Außerdem sind die von den meisten Anlegern nicht beachteten Schulden in Höhe von 16 Milliarden eines der größten Probleme. Sollte NT langfristig keine Gewinne mehr erzielen können, wären Schuldentilgungen und Zinszahlungen nicht mehr tragbar.

Hier mal der Balance Sheet:

Period Ending Dec 31, 2001 Sep 30, 2001 Jun 30, 2001 Mar 31, 2001
Current Assets
Cash And Cash Equivalents $3,513,000,000 $3,355,000,000 $1,929,000,000 $1,772,000,000
Short Term Investments N/A N/A N/A N/A
Net Receivables $5,105,000,000 $5,812,000,000 $7,077,000,000 $8,446,000,000
Inventory $1,579,000,000 $1,991,000,000 $2,965,000,000 $4,165,000,000
Other Current Assets $1,565,000,000 $2,281,000,000 $1,717,000,000 $1,337,000,000
Total Current Assets $11,762,000,000 $13,439,000,000 $13,688,000,000 $15,720,000,000

Long Term Assets
Long Term Investments $456,000,000 $786,000,000 $1,319,000,000 $2,224,000,000
Property Plant And Equipment $2,571,000,000 $2,804,000,000 $3,387,000,000 $3,714,000,000
Goodwill $12,413,000,000 N/A N/A N/A
Intangible Assets $5,762,000,000 $4,023,000,000 $4,709,000,000 $19,800,000,000
Accumulated Amortization $15,080,000,000 N/A N/A N/A
Other Assets $1,176,000,000 $1,277,000,000 $1,291,000,000 $824,000,000
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges $2,077,000,000 $1,512,000,000 $1,109,000,000 $318,000,000
Total Assets $21,137,000,000 $23,841,000,000 $25,503,000,000 $42,600,000,000

Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable $8,016,000,000 $8,979,000,000 $9,008,000,000 $6,696,000,000
Short Term And Current Long Term Debt $384,000,000 $39,000,000 $79,000,000 $458,000,000
Other Current Liabilities $1,057,000,000 $1,257,000,000 $1,422,000,000 $742,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $9,457,000,000 $10,275,000,000 $10,509,000,000 $7,896,000,000
Long Term Debt $4,094,000,000 $4,437,000,000 $2,618,000,000 $2,633,000,000
Other Liabilities $1,453,000,000 $1,111,000,000 $1,042,000,000 $1,031,000,000
Deferred Long Term Liability Charges $672,000,000 $746,000,000 $618,000,000 $970,000,000
Minority Interest $637,000,000 $610,000,000 $728,000,000 $778,000,000
Negative Goodwill N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total Liabilities $16,313,000,000 $17,179,000,000 $15,515,000,000 $13,308,000,000

Stock Holders Equity
Misc Stocks Options Warrants N/A N/A N/A N/A
Redeemable Preferred Stock N/A N/A N/A N/A
Preferred Stock N/A N/A N/A N/A
Common Stock $32,899,000,000 $32,801,000,000 $32,626,000,000 $32,447,000,000
Retained Earnings ($30,151,000,000) ($28,325,000,000) ($24,857,000,000) ($5,366,000,000)
Treasury Stock N/A N/A N/A N/A
Capital Surplus $3,257,000,000 $3,372,000,000 $3,402,000,000 $3,507,000,000
Other Stockholder Equity ($1,181,000,000) ($1,186,000,000) ($1,183,000,000) ($1,296,000,000)
Total Stockholder Equity $4,824,000,000 $6,662,000,000 $9,988,000,000 $29,292,000,000
Net Tangible Assets ($7,589,000,000) $2,639,000,000 $5,279,000,000 $9,492,000,000

[LeoKreis]

@ matthiasch

Wann sind denn die Nortelaktien zuletzt gesplittet worden?

Vielleicht sieht mein Depot dann ja doch nicht so traurig aus und ich habe entsprechend mehr Stücke?

[matthiasch]

@Leo

Keine Angst, falls du einen Splitt mitgemacht hättest, dann hättest du auch eine Abrechnung von deiner Bank bekommmen.

Ich kann dir aber trotzdem mal die Splitts reinstellen:


Splits: 23-May-83 [3:1]
26-May-87 [2:1],
12-Jan-98 [2:1],
20-Aug-99 [2:1],
9-May-00 [2:1]






Jedes Dreieck im Chart zeigt einen Aktiensplitt an.

Mal ein Rechenbeispiel:

Kauf von 100 NT im Januar 1983.
Am 23-May-83 werden aus den 100 -> 300 Stücke,
am 26-May-87 werden aus den 300 -> 600 Aktien,
12-Jan-98 hast du 1200 Aktien,
20-Aug-99 1200 -> 2400 Aktien
und am 9-May-00 hast du dann 4800 Papiere

Allerdings sind die Charts splittbereinigt!

[matthiasch]

Vielleicht interessiert dich das noch:
Ich habe gerade mal NT bei Vectorvest (Vectorvest hat ein Rechensystem, mit dem sie glauben den fairen Wert einer Aktie errechnen zu können. Bis jetzt lagen sie fast immer richtig) eingegeben. Laut VV wäre Nortel, augrund des schwachen Wachstums usw., mit 0,9$ fair bewertet!




The ticker symbol for Nortel Networks is NT. NT is traded on the New York Stock Exchange and options are available on this stock.

PRICE: NT closed on 05/17/2002 at $2.85 per share.

VALUE: NT has a Value of $0.9 per share. Value is the foundation of the VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock`s Price and Value always converge.

RV (Relative Value): NT has an RV of 0.36. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 0.36 is very poor. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases, however, a stock`s RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future earnings growth to drive the stock`s price higher. This information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks. We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.

RS (Relative Safety): NT has an RS rating of 0.99. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 0.99 is fair. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average stock.


RT (Relative Timing): NT has an RT rating of 0.24. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 0.24 is very poor. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock`s price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock`s Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the stock`s Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock`s Price is in a downtrend.


VST-Vector (VST): NT has a VST-Vector rating of 0.62. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 0.62 is poor. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks with low RV and RS values have high RT`s. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital application.


GRT (Growth Rate): NT has a GRT of -7 % per year. This is very poor. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock`s Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock`s Price will increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.

Recommendation (REC): NT has a Sell recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock`s price is approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock`s price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC`s, and sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.


STOP-PRICE: NT has a Stop-Price of 3.38 per share. This is 0.53 or 18.6 % above its current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 7,400 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each stock`s fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.


DIV (Dividend): NT does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).

DY (Dividend Yield): NT has a DY of 0 percent. This is below the current market average of 1.1 %. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.

EY (Earnings Yield): NT has an EY of -36.16%. This is below the current market average of 3.83%. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.

EPS (Earnings Per Share): NT has an EPS of $-1.03 per share. EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.

P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): NT has a P/E ratio of -2.77. This ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.

GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): NT has a GPE of -2.53. This ratio suggests that NT is overvalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 0.36 for NT is very poor.

DS (Dividend Safety): NT has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 are above average in safety.

RISK (Dividend Risk): NT does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are below average in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.

DG (Dividend Growth): NT has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company`s historical financial performance and the board`s current outlook on the future use of funds.

YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): NT has a YSG-Vector of 0. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, a YSG-Vector rating of 0 is very poor. VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.

VOL(100)s: NT traded 12622700 shares on 05/17/2002.

AVG VOL(100)s: NT has an Average Volume of 14944100. Average Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.


% VOL: NT had a Volume change of -15.5% from its 50 day moving average volume.

OPEN: NT opened trading at $2.65 per share on 05/17/2002.

HIGH: NT traded at a high of $2.85 per share on 05/17/2002.

LOW: NT traded at a low of $2.56 per share on 05/17/2002.

CLOSE: NT Closed trading at $2.85 per share on 05/17/2002.

% PRC: NT showed a Price change of 11.3% from the prior day`s closing price.

INDUSTRY: NT has been assigned to the Telecomm (Equipment) Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.

NT has about average safety with well below average upside potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give well below average, relatively consistent returns over the long term.

Hier der Link:
http://www.vectorvest.com
Dann rechts oben das US-Kürzel eingeben. Bei Nortel -> NT

[LMeister7]

@ Matthiasch
Hallo,
wenn Du schon Vector zu Rate ziehst, dann sollte man zumindest einen Vergleich zur Konkurenz wie z.B. Lucent ziehen:
___________________________________________________
PRICE: LU closed on 05/17/2002 at $4.91 per share.

VALUE: LU has a Value of $2.1 per share. Value is the foundation of the VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock`s Price and Value always converge.

________________________________________________________
Frohe Pfingsten,
LM7

[sphere]

intereassnter link
danke

[matthiasch]

@LMeister7

Ich bin allgemein eher skeptisch zu NT, LU oder GLW eingestellt!

[Heinrichd.Seefahrer]

nun aber mal halblang. Der wert ist extrem billig und als langzeitinvestment äußert gut geeignet die ausbildung meiner kinder zu finanzieren. Ich für meinen teil habe bedenkenlos verbilligt und bin fest davon überzeugt, keinen spekulativen wert gekauft zu haben. Natürlich musste der wert in den letzten monaten ordentlich federn lassen, die gründe sind bekannt, der rest in psychologie. Unerklärich mit der ratio und fern der realität. Die zukunft hat doch erst begonnen -dummer satz- aber dennoch, bei nortel handelt es sich um einen blue-chip. punkt dictum.

[matthiasch]

@Heinrich

Der Wert ist ein Haufen Sche..e.


Falls es hier irgendjemanden interessiert, schließlich werden viele wohl durch den Stuttgarter-Aktien-Club auf diese Mühle gekommen sein:

Nortel ist vom SAC abgestuft worden und nicht mehr in der Favoritenliste vertreten - gleichgestetzt mit WCOM.

Wenn sogar diese Truppe, die ewig versucht an ihren Werten festzuhalten, Nortel abstuft, dann wird es tatsächlich höchste Zeit diese Verschuldungsmaschine abzustoßen.


Das Problem von Nortel:

Die Wirtschaft steckt in einer Baisse, Nortel verdient keine Kohle mehr - im Gegensatz - sie verbrennen noch eine ganze Menge. Nun hat Nortel natürlich seine Zinsen, Zinseszins (Schließlich werden keine Schulden abgebaut, eher erneuert) und Tilgung zu zahlen - nur womit?
Richtig: Neue Kredite werden aufgenommen. In den nächsten Jahren wird dieses Schema viele Konzerne vernichten, speziell Glasfaserwerte.
Und warum Glasfaserwerte: Der Internetboom geht seit längerem dem Ende entgegen. Viele DotCOM-Buden waren die reinsten Cashburner, dachten sie könnten mit ihrem Kapital - und durch die Neuemissionen war auch ne Menge vorhanden - alles zur selben Zeit finanzieren. Das waren Hochphasen für die Ausrüster, die nie mehr kommen werden....


Das Hauptproblem von Nortel:

Wann bzw. springt die Wirtschaft in den nächsten acht bis zehn Jahren überhaupt wieder an? Jeder beschönigt die Situation der US-Wirtschaft - das riecht stark nach Japan.....

[matthiasch]

Nortel hat sich seit dem letzten Posting halbiert......

[apoll17at]

Es wird leider passieren!

Die Zukunft gehört den schneller Groß-Mengen Datenübertragungen!
Ich habe ein Architekturbüro und arbeiten mit anderen in aller Herren Länder zusammen. Datenübertragungen werden immer mehr werden.

Und im Gegensatz zu Internet Firmen, die nur Leistungen anboten, für die niemand bereit war, Geld auszugeben, ist die Wirtschaft durchaus bereit für diese Übertragungsdienste zu bezahlen.

Aber Nortel wird das nicht mehr erleben, weil momentan heißt es "Sparen, Sparen, Sparen" in der Wirtschaft. Keinen Euro umsonst ausgeben.

In Österreich (und in D wohl nicht anders) wird die Bauwirtschaft in den nächsten 5 Jahren um 1/5 schrumpfen müssen.

Ich will zu den Überlebenden gehören. Da muss eben momentan die Linie "Lopez" in die Firma. Und für das Überleben meiner Firma ist mir eigentlich mein Totalverlust bei Nortel völlig wurscht.

[Pfandbrief]

pffff, hab grad 5000 zu 0,80 USD eingeladen, ok, und jetzt beten.

[Pfandbrief]

gut 12% in 2 Minuten ist auch eine Rendite