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Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.974.415 von upolani am 01.08.07 22:42:04So liebe Freunde,
da hängt der Hammer!!!
Arni hat die Analyse vom 15.06.07 endlich rausgerückt...PDF-Format kann sich jeder bei ihm einfordern.
EPS 2008 0,4 2009 0,6
Beste Grüße,
TB
Margin Explosion Ahead?
Company Update
June 15, 2007
QSC is on track to deliver strong growth in 2007 and
might beat our bullish assumptions in the mid-term
(although 30-32% above consensus). Market
overreacted on TEF-TI impact. The 2008 tax reform
allows us to raise our fair value to EUR8.7. Buy.
Year Sales EBIT EBIT Net EPS P/E P/CF EV/ EV/ EV/ Div.
End (EURm) (m) margin profit Sales EBITDA EBIT Yield
Dec. 31 (%) (m) (%)
2005 193.7 -18.6 -9.6 -18.2 -0.16 na 72.4 2.1 68.8 na 0.0
2006 262.5 -6.5 -2.5 -5.4 -0.04 na 30.1 2.0 24.9 na 0.0
2007E 358.3 23.1 6.5 19.5 0.15 34.5 11.4 1.9 11.1 29.1 0.0
2008E 472.2 66.0 14.0 53.8 0.40 12.6 6.8 1.3 5.9 9.3 0.0
2009E 577.7 98.7 17.1 81.6 0.60 8.3 5.2 0.9 3.9 5.3 0.0
Source: Kepler Equities
German Research | Small & Mid-Cap
Key Points
• Company on Track to Deliver Strong EBITDA Growth in 2007
In Q1 2007, QSC announced a revenue increase of 40.8% YOY to EUR76.8m and
EBITDA rising by 251.6% to EUR8.9m. We think this should keep QSC on track to
deliver group EBITDA of EUR60.6m for 2007, which would be above its current
guidance of EUR50-60m.
• Management Confident About Mid-Term EBITDA Margin
In a recent interview, Markus Metyas, CFO, stated he is confident of achieving an
EBITDA margin of 25-30% assuming revenue generation of around EUR500m. Due
to continued growth in QSC’s core business and additional leverage from wholesale
partners, we expect QSC to generate revenues of EUR472m in 2008 and EUR578m
in 2009. In the light of management guidance, our EBITDA margin assumptions of
22.1% in 2008 and 23.4% in 2009 look conservative, although they are at the very
top-end of consensus (30-32% above consensus).
• Market Overreacted on Hansenet Impact
Telefonica’s entry into Telecom Italia triggered concerns that Hansenet (TI) could
entirely move its business to Telefonica in Germany. Currently, Hansenet is operating
with both QSC and Telefonica. We do not think Hansenet will entirely migrate to
Telefonica, but even in such an event, the impact on valuation could just be about
EUR0.5 per share, well below recent market reaction.
Valuation
• We Raise Fair Value from EUR7.8 to EUR8.7 Due to Tax Reform
Continuing to assume Hansenet to be a partner of QSC (or alternative plans like
United Internet or Freenet becoming stronger instead), we maintain our valuation on
the operational business. The 2008 tax reform should have a positive impact on QSC,
lifting the fair value to EUR8.7. Based on our earnings forecast, we think QSC is
trading on very attractive multiples, and may be an interesting takeover candidate.
Reuters QSCG.DE / Bloomberg QSC GY Rating Target Price
QSC Buy EUR8.70
Previous Current Price Thomas Karlovits
+49 69 75696 243
thomas.karlovits@kepler-equities.com
Sector
Telecommunication Services
Market Cap
EUR677.9m
Free Float
52% Buy EUR5.01
In Focus
QSC
2 Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion June 15, 2007
Price Market Cap Float Av. Vol. Traded ('000) Bloomberg Reuters
EUR5.01 EUR677.9m 52% 388.3 QSC GY QSCG.DE
Company Profile
QSC is an alternative carrier running an extensive infrastructure in Germany. Customer focus is on corporate clients. Company further leverages infrastructure
through wholesale/reseller agreements.
Events Calendar Top Shareholders Top Management Published Research
Baker Capital 26.5% Dr. Bernd Schlobohm, CEO In Focus 12/07/2006
Gerd Eickers 10.9% Markus Metyas, CFO
Bernd Schlobohm 10.9%
P&L (EURm), Dec. 31 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Sales 262.5 358.3 472.2 577.7
EBITDA 21.2 60.6 104.4 135.1
Depreciation & provision -27.7 -37.5 -38.4 -36.3
EBIT bef. except. -6.5 23.1 66.0 98.7
Exceptionals -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reported EBIT aft. except. -7.2 23.1 66.0 98.7
Financial income 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.0
Profit bef. tax & extr. -7.2 25.9 69.0 104.7
Extraordinaries 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Profit before tax -7.2 25.9 69.0 104.7
Taxes 1.9 -3.9 -8.3 -12.6
Tax rate (%) 25.8% 15.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Minority -0.1 -2.5 -7.0 -10.5
Rep. net earnings (group) -5.4 19.5 53.8 81.6
Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adj. net earnings (group) -5.4 19.5 53.8 81.6
Balance Sheet (EURm), Dec. 31 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Cash and equivalents 108.9 101.4 164.5 254.2
Net working capital -50.2 -43.8 -40.6 -38.3
Net working capital/sales -19.1% -12.2% -8.6% -6.6%
Fixed assets 133.6 157.3 151.0 150.8
o/w tangible assets 61.5 77.0 65.3 58.6
o/w int. assets (incl. GW) 65.5 73.7 79.1 85.5
o/w financial assets 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Capital employed 76.8 106.9 103.8 105.8
Total assets 299.9 339.7 419.1 528.9
Net debt/(net cash) -79.4 -72.1 -135.2 -224.8
Net debt/equity (%) -48.4% -38.5% -54.9% -66.7%
Net debt/EBITDA -3.8 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7
Net debt/cap. employed -103.38% -67.43% -130.23% -212.42%
Shareholders' equity 160.59 183.31 242.42 333.07
Equity/total assets (%) 54.8% 55.1% 58.8% 63.7%
ROCE (%) -10.8% 25.2% 62.7% 94.2%
ROE (%) -4.4% 11.4% 25.3% 28.4%
Trends & Margins (%) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Sales growth 35.5% 36.5% 31.8% 22.3%
EBITDA margin 8.1% 16.9% 22.1% 23.4%
EBITDA growth 266.4% 186.5% 72.2% 29.3%
EBIT bef. except. margin -2.5% 6.5% 14.0% 17.1%
EBIT bef. except. growth -65.2% -456.6% 185.4% 49.6%
Profit bef. tax & extr. margin -2.7% 7.2% 14.6% 18.1%
Profit bef. tax & extr. growth -60.4% -459.8% 166.3% 51.7%
Net adjusted profit margin -2.1% 5.4% 11.4% 14.1%
Net adjusted profit growth ns ns 175.6% 51.7%
Per Share (EUR) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
EPS (reported) -0.04 0.15 0.40 0.60
EPS (adjusted) -0.04 0.15 0.40 0.60
EPS growth ns ns 174.1% 51.7%
Cash-flow 0.15 0.44 0.74 0.96
Book value 1.20 1.35 1.79 2.46
Dividend 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Year-end nb of shares 133.9 135.3 135.3 135.3
Av. diluted nb of shares 124.5 134.6 135.3 135.3
2006 Divisional Split Sales (m) EBITDA (m) Mgn
Large Accounts 65.5 38.9 59.4%
Business Customers 75.5 39.7 52.5%
Wholesale/Reseller 65.4 32.8 50.2%
Residential 56.1 16.7 29.8%
Valuation 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
P/E na 34.5 12.6 8.3
P/Book Value 3.9 3.7 2.8 2.0
P/CF 30.1 11.4 6.8 5.2
FCF yield na na na na
EV/Sales 2.01 1.88 1.29 0.90
EV/EBITDA 24.9 11.1 5.9 3.9
EV/EBIT na 29.1 9.3 5.3
EV/Capital employed 8.8 7.3 5.8 5.0
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
QSC
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Jun
2006
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006
Jan
2007
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2007
12/6/2007
PRICE FTSE Euro First 300
Geographical Sales Split (%) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Germany 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Cash-Flow Statement (EURm) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Cash-flow 20.6 59.6 100.1 129.6
Change in WCR -8.8 -7.9 -4.9 -3.9
Operating Cash-flow 11.7 51.7 95.2 125.8
Operating CF/sales (%) 4.5% 14.4% 20.2% 21.8%
Capex 19.2 60.1 32.1 36.1
Capex/sales (%) 7.3% 16.8% 6.8% 6.3%
Cash-flow/capex (%) 107.0% 99.2% 311.6% 359.1%
Capex/depreciation 0.70 1.60 0.84 0.99
Free cash-flow -7.48 -8.41 63.10 89.67
FCF/sales (%) -2.85% -2.35% 13.36% 15.52%
Disposals -37.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial invest. -20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buy-Backs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend pay-out 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Equity issue 4.5 1.2 0.0 0.0
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net debt increase (decrease) 20.2 7.2 -63.1 -89.7
Key Financials
In Focus
QSC
June 15, 2007 Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion 3
Disclosure Checklist - Potential Conflict of Interests
Sto ck ISIN Disclo sure (see below) Currency Price
Freenet DE000A 0EAM M 0 no thing to disclo se EUR 24.0
QSC DE0005137004 no thing to disclo se EUR 5.1
Telecom Italia S.P.A . IT0003497168 no thing to disclo se EUR 2.1
Telefo nica ES0178401016 no thing to disclo se EUR 16.3
Source: Factset closing prices of 13/06/2007
Key:
1. Landsbanki Islands hf. (Landsbanki) or one or more of its subsidiaries* hold or own or control 1% or more of the issued share capital of this company. 2. The company
holds or owns or controls 1% or more of the issued share capital of Landsbanki or a subsidiary*. 3. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* are or may be regularly
doing proprietary trading in equity securities of this company. 4. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* have been lead manager or co-lead manager in a public
offering of the issuer’s financial instruments during the last twelve months. 5. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* are a market maker in the issuer’s financial
instruments. 6. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* are a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such
instruments. 7. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* act as a corporate broker or a sponsor or a sponsor specialist (in accordance with the local regulations) to
this company. 8. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* and the issuer have agreed that Landsbanki or subsidiaries* will produce and disseminate investment
research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer. 9. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* have received compensation from this company for the provision of
investment banking or financial advisory services within the previous twelve months. 10. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* may expect to receive or intend to
seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 11. The author of, or an individual who assisted in the preparation of, this
report (or a member of his/her household), or a person who although not involved in the preparation of the report had or could reasonably be expected to have access to
the substance of the report prior to its dissemination has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 12. An employee of Landsbanki or a subsidiary*
serves on the board of directors of this company.
*Subsidiaries: Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited.
Rating Ratio Landsbanki Kepler Q1 2007 Rating Ratio Merrion Stockbrokers Limited Q1 2007
Rating breakdown A B Rating breakdown A B
Buy 61.4% 0.0% Buy 40.0% 0.0%
Hold 10.0% 0.0% Hold 57.0% 0.0%
Reduce 25.3% 0.0% Reduce 0.0% 0.0%
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 3.3% 0.0% Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 3.0% 0.0%
Total 100.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 0.0%
Source: Landsbanki Kepler
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
Source: Merrion Stockbrokers Limited
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
Rating Ratio Landsbanki Islands hf. Q1 2007 Rating Ratio Teather & Greenwood Limited Q1 2007
Rating breakdown A B Rating breakdown A B
Buy 60.3% 6.5% Buy 58.0% 79.0%
Hold 9.0% 4.8% Hold 24.0% 18.0%
Reduce 15.4% 0.0% Reduce 14.0% 0.0%
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 15.3% 88.7% Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 4.0% 3.%
Total 100.0% 100.0% Total 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Landsbanki Islands hf.
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
Source: Teather & Greenwood Limited
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
From 9 May 2006, Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited and Landsbanki Islands hf.’s rating system consists of three
recommendations: Buy, Hold and Reduce. For a Buy rating, the minimum expected upside is 10% in absolute terms over 12 months. For a Hold rating the expected upside
is below 10% in absolute terms. A Reduce rating is applied when there is expected downside on the stock. Target prices are set on all stocks under coverage, based on a
12-month view. Equity ratings and valuations are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion
Stockbrokers Limited and Landsbanki Islands hf.’s strategy teams’ sector allocations rate each sector Overweight, Underweight or Neutral.
Job titles: The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the
cover
Stock prices: Prices are taken as of the previous day’s close (to the date of this report) on the home market unless otherwise stated.
Regulators
Location Regulator Abbreviation
Landsbanki Kepler France Autorité des Marchés Financiers AMF
Landsbanki Kepler España Comision Nacional del Mercado de Valores CNMV
Landsbanki Kepler Germany Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BaFin
Landsbanki Kepler Italia Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa CONSOB
Landsbanki Kepler Nederland Autoriteit Financiële Markten AFM
Landsbanki Kepler Switzerland Swiss Federal Banking Commission SFBC
Teather and Greenwood Limited The Financial Services Authority FSA
Merrion Stockbrokers Limited The Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority IFSRA
Landsbanki Islands hf. The Financial Supervisory Authority FME
Source: Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited and Landsbanki Islands hf.
Landsbanki Kepler is authorised and regulated by both Banque de France and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.
Teather & Greenwood Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and is entered in its Register under Firm Reference Number 186677. Teather
& Greenwood Limited is also a member of the London Stock Exchange Plc.
Merrion Stockbrokers Limited is authorised by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority under the Stock Exchange Act, 1995. Merrion Stockbrokers Limited is also a
member firm of the Irish and London Stock Exchanges.
Landsbanki Islands hf. is authorised by Fjármálaeftirlitið (The Financial Supervisory Authority, Iceland). Landsbanki Islands hf. is a member of the OMX Nordic Exchange
and the Oslo Børs.
For further information relating to research recommendations and conflict of interest management please refer to www.kepler-equities.com, www.teathers.com,
www.merrion-capital.com and www.landsbanki.is .
We have discussed only the facts in the report with the company. Disclosure
In Focus
QSC
4 Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion June 15, 2007
The information contained in this publication was obtained from various sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by
Landsbanki or a subsidiary*. Neither Landsbanki nor its subsidiaries warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information and accept no
liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such information, except to the extent required by applicable law.
This publication is a brief summary and does not purport to contain all available information on the subjects covered. Further information
is available on request. This report may not be reproduced for further publication unless the source is quoted.
This publication is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or
sale of any securities, or as an invitation, inducement or intermediation for the sale, subscription or purchase of any securities, or for
engaging in any other transaction. This publication is not directed at private individuals.
Any opinions, projections, forecasts or estimates in this report are those of the author only, who has acted with a high degree of expertise. They
reflect only the current views of the author at the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Landsbanki or its subsidiaries* bear
no obligation to update, modify or amend this publication or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient of this publication in the event that any matter,
opinion, projection, forecast or estimate contained herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is
withdrawn. The analysis, opinions, projections, forecasts and estimates expressed in this report were in no way affected or influenced by the issuer.
The author of this publication benefits financially from the overall success of Landsbanki or its subsidiaries*.
The investments referred to in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon
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The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Some
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To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or prejudices
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*Subsidiaries: Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited.
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da hängt der Hammer!!!
Arni hat die Analyse vom 15.06.07 endlich rausgerückt...PDF-Format kann sich jeder bei ihm einfordern.
EPS 2008 0,4 2009 0,6
Beste Grüße,
TB
Margin Explosion Ahead?
Company Update
June 15, 2007
QSC is on track to deliver strong growth in 2007 and
might beat our bullish assumptions in the mid-term
(although 30-32% above consensus). Market
overreacted on TEF-TI impact. The 2008 tax reform
allows us to raise our fair value to EUR8.7. Buy.
Year Sales EBIT EBIT Net EPS P/E P/CF EV/ EV/ EV/ Div.
End (EURm) (m) margin profit Sales EBITDA EBIT Yield
Dec. 31 (%) (m) (%)
2005 193.7 -18.6 -9.6 -18.2 -0.16 na 72.4 2.1 68.8 na 0.0
2006 262.5 -6.5 -2.5 -5.4 -0.04 na 30.1 2.0 24.9 na 0.0
2007E 358.3 23.1 6.5 19.5 0.15 34.5 11.4 1.9 11.1 29.1 0.0
2008E 472.2 66.0 14.0 53.8 0.40 12.6 6.8 1.3 5.9 9.3 0.0
2009E 577.7 98.7 17.1 81.6 0.60 8.3 5.2 0.9 3.9 5.3 0.0
Source: Kepler Equities
German Research | Small & Mid-Cap
Key Points
• Company on Track to Deliver Strong EBITDA Growth in 2007
In Q1 2007, QSC announced a revenue increase of 40.8% YOY to EUR76.8m and
EBITDA rising by 251.6% to EUR8.9m. We think this should keep QSC on track to
deliver group EBITDA of EUR60.6m for 2007, which would be above its current
guidance of EUR50-60m.
• Management Confident About Mid-Term EBITDA Margin
In a recent interview, Markus Metyas, CFO, stated he is confident of achieving an
EBITDA margin of 25-30% assuming revenue generation of around EUR500m. Due
to continued growth in QSC’s core business and additional leverage from wholesale
partners, we expect QSC to generate revenues of EUR472m in 2008 and EUR578m
in 2009. In the light of management guidance, our EBITDA margin assumptions of
22.1% in 2008 and 23.4% in 2009 look conservative, although they are at the very
top-end of consensus (30-32% above consensus).
• Market Overreacted on Hansenet Impact
Telefonica’s entry into Telecom Italia triggered concerns that Hansenet (TI) could
entirely move its business to Telefonica in Germany. Currently, Hansenet is operating
with both QSC and Telefonica. We do not think Hansenet will entirely migrate to
Telefonica, but even in such an event, the impact on valuation could just be about
EUR0.5 per share, well below recent market reaction.
Valuation
• We Raise Fair Value from EUR7.8 to EUR8.7 Due to Tax Reform
Continuing to assume Hansenet to be a partner of QSC (or alternative plans like
United Internet or Freenet becoming stronger instead), we maintain our valuation on
the operational business. The 2008 tax reform should have a positive impact on QSC,
lifting the fair value to EUR8.7. Based on our earnings forecast, we think QSC is
trading on very attractive multiples, and may be an interesting takeover candidate.
Reuters QSCG.DE / Bloomberg QSC GY Rating Target Price
QSC Buy EUR8.70
Previous Current Price Thomas Karlovits
+49 69 75696 243
thomas.karlovits@kepler-equities.com
Sector
Telecommunication Services
Market Cap
EUR677.9m
Free Float
52% Buy EUR5.01
In Focus
QSC
2 Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion June 15, 2007
Price Market Cap Float Av. Vol. Traded ('000) Bloomberg Reuters
EUR5.01 EUR677.9m 52% 388.3 QSC GY QSCG.DE
Company Profile
QSC is an alternative carrier running an extensive infrastructure in Germany. Customer focus is on corporate clients. Company further leverages infrastructure
through wholesale/reseller agreements.
Events Calendar Top Shareholders Top Management Published Research
Baker Capital 26.5% Dr. Bernd Schlobohm, CEO In Focus 12/07/2006
Gerd Eickers 10.9% Markus Metyas, CFO
Bernd Schlobohm 10.9%
P&L (EURm), Dec. 31 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Sales 262.5 358.3 472.2 577.7
EBITDA 21.2 60.6 104.4 135.1
Depreciation & provision -27.7 -37.5 -38.4 -36.3
EBIT bef. except. -6.5 23.1 66.0 98.7
Exceptionals -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reported EBIT aft. except. -7.2 23.1 66.0 98.7
Financial income 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.0
Profit bef. tax & extr. -7.2 25.9 69.0 104.7
Extraordinaries 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Profit before tax -7.2 25.9 69.0 104.7
Taxes 1.9 -3.9 -8.3 -12.6
Tax rate (%) 25.8% 15.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Minority -0.1 -2.5 -7.0 -10.5
Rep. net earnings (group) -5.4 19.5 53.8 81.6
Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adj. net earnings (group) -5.4 19.5 53.8 81.6
Balance Sheet (EURm), Dec. 31 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Cash and equivalents 108.9 101.4 164.5 254.2
Net working capital -50.2 -43.8 -40.6 -38.3
Net working capital/sales -19.1% -12.2% -8.6% -6.6%
Fixed assets 133.6 157.3 151.0 150.8
o/w tangible assets 61.5 77.0 65.3 58.6
o/w int. assets (incl. GW) 65.5 73.7 79.1 85.5
o/w financial assets 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Capital employed 76.8 106.9 103.8 105.8
Total assets 299.9 339.7 419.1 528.9
Net debt/(net cash) -79.4 -72.1 -135.2 -224.8
Net debt/equity (%) -48.4% -38.5% -54.9% -66.7%
Net debt/EBITDA -3.8 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7
Net debt/cap. employed -103.38% -67.43% -130.23% -212.42%
Shareholders' equity 160.59 183.31 242.42 333.07
Equity/total assets (%) 54.8% 55.1% 58.8% 63.7%
ROCE (%) -10.8% 25.2% 62.7% 94.2%
ROE (%) -4.4% 11.4% 25.3% 28.4%
Trends & Margins (%) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Sales growth 35.5% 36.5% 31.8% 22.3%
EBITDA margin 8.1% 16.9% 22.1% 23.4%
EBITDA growth 266.4% 186.5% 72.2% 29.3%
EBIT bef. except. margin -2.5% 6.5% 14.0% 17.1%
EBIT bef. except. growth -65.2% -456.6% 185.4% 49.6%
Profit bef. tax & extr. margin -2.7% 7.2% 14.6% 18.1%
Profit bef. tax & extr. growth -60.4% -459.8% 166.3% 51.7%
Net adjusted profit margin -2.1% 5.4% 11.4% 14.1%
Net adjusted profit growth ns ns 175.6% 51.7%
Per Share (EUR) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
EPS (reported) -0.04 0.15 0.40 0.60
EPS (adjusted) -0.04 0.15 0.40 0.60
EPS growth ns ns 174.1% 51.7%
Cash-flow 0.15 0.44 0.74 0.96
Book value 1.20 1.35 1.79 2.46
Dividend 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Year-end nb of shares 133.9 135.3 135.3 135.3
Av. diluted nb of shares 124.5 134.6 135.3 135.3
2006 Divisional Split Sales (m) EBITDA (m) Mgn
Large Accounts 65.5 38.9 59.4%
Business Customers 75.5 39.7 52.5%
Wholesale/Reseller 65.4 32.8 50.2%
Residential 56.1 16.7 29.8%
Valuation 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
P/E na 34.5 12.6 8.3
P/Book Value 3.9 3.7 2.8 2.0
P/CF 30.1 11.4 6.8 5.2
FCF yield na na na na
EV/Sales 2.01 1.88 1.29 0.90
EV/EBITDA 24.9 11.1 5.9 3.9
EV/EBIT na 29.1 9.3 5.3
EV/Capital employed 8.8 7.3 5.8 5.0
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
QSC
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Jun
2006
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006
Jan
2007
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2007
12/6/2007
PRICE FTSE Euro First 300
Geographical Sales Split (%) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Germany 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Cash-Flow Statement (EURm) 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Cash-flow 20.6 59.6 100.1 129.6
Change in WCR -8.8 -7.9 -4.9 -3.9
Operating Cash-flow 11.7 51.7 95.2 125.8
Operating CF/sales (%) 4.5% 14.4% 20.2% 21.8%
Capex 19.2 60.1 32.1 36.1
Capex/sales (%) 7.3% 16.8% 6.8% 6.3%
Cash-flow/capex (%) 107.0% 99.2% 311.6% 359.1%
Capex/depreciation 0.70 1.60 0.84 0.99
Free cash-flow -7.48 -8.41 63.10 89.67
FCF/sales (%) -2.85% -2.35% 13.36% 15.52%
Disposals -37.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial invest. -20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buy-Backs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend pay-out 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Equity issue 4.5 1.2 0.0 0.0
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net debt increase (decrease) 20.2 7.2 -63.1 -89.7
Key Financials
In Focus
QSC
June 15, 2007 Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion 3
Disclosure Checklist - Potential Conflict of Interests
Sto ck ISIN Disclo sure (see below) Currency Price
Freenet DE000A 0EAM M 0 no thing to disclo se EUR 24.0
QSC DE0005137004 no thing to disclo se EUR 5.1
Telecom Italia S.P.A . IT0003497168 no thing to disclo se EUR 2.1
Telefo nica ES0178401016 no thing to disclo se EUR 16.3
Source: Factset closing prices of 13/06/2007
Key:
1. Landsbanki Islands hf. (Landsbanki) or one or more of its subsidiaries* hold or own or control 1% or more of the issued share capital of this company. 2. The company
holds or owns or controls 1% or more of the issued share capital of Landsbanki or a subsidiary*. 3. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* are or may be regularly
doing proprietary trading in equity securities of this company. 4. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* have been lead manager or co-lead manager in a public
offering of the issuer’s financial instruments during the last twelve months. 5. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* are a market maker in the issuer’s financial
instruments. 6. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* are a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such
instruments. 7. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* act as a corporate broker or a sponsor or a sponsor specialist (in accordance with the local regulations) to
this company. 8. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* and the issuer have agreed that Landsbanki or subsidiaries* will produce and disseminate investment
research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer. 9. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* have received compensation from this company for the provision of
investment banking or financial advisory services within the previous twelve months. 10. Landsbanki or one or more of its subsidiaries* may expect to receive or intend to
seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 11. The author of, or an individual who assisted in the preparation of, this
report (or a member of his/her household), or a person who although not involved in the preparation of the report had or could reasonably be expected to have access to
the substance of the report prior to its dissemination has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 12. An employee of Landsbanki or a subsidiary*
serves on the board of directors of this company.
*Subsidiaries: Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited.
Rating Ratio Landsbanki Kepler Q1 2007 Rating Ratio Merrion Stockbrokers Limited Q1 2007
Rating breakdown A B Rating breakdown A B
Buy 61.4% 0.0% Buy 40.0% 0.0%
Hold 10.0% 0.0% Hold 57.0% 0.0%
Reduce 25.3% 0.0% Reduce 0.0% 0.0%
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 3.3% 0.0% Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 3.0% 0.0%
Total 100.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 0.0%
Source: Landsbanki Kepler
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
Source: Merrion Stockbrokers Limited
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
Rating Ratio Landsbanki Islands hf. Q1 2007 Rating Ratio Teather & Greenwood Limited Q1 2007
Rating breakdown A B Rating breakdown A B
Buy 60.3% 6.5% Buy 58.0% 79.0%
Hold 9.0% 4.8% Hold 24.0% 18.0%
Reduce 15.4% 0.0% Reduce 14.0% 0.0%
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 15.3% 88.7% Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 4.0% 3.%
Total 100.0% 100.0% Total 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Landsbanki Islands hf.
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
Source: Teather & Greenwood Limited
A: % of all research recommendations
B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied
From 9 May 2006, Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited and Landsbanki Islands hf.’s rating system consists of three
recommendations: Buy, Hold and Reduce. For a Buy rating, the minimum expected upside is 10% in absolute terms over 12 months. For a Hold rating the expected upside
is below 10% in absolute terms. A Reduce rating is applied when there is expected downside on the stock. Target prices are set on all stocks under coverage, based on a
12-month view. Equity ratings and valuations are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion
Stockbrokers Limited and Landsbanki Islands hf.’s strategy teams’ sector allocations rate each sector Overweight, Underweight or Neutral.
Job titles: The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the
cover
Stock prices: Prices are taken as of the previous day’s close (to the date of this report) on the home market unless otherwise stated.
Regulators
Location Regulator Abbreviation
Landsbanki Kepler France Autorité des Marchés Financiers AMF
Landsbanki Kepler España Comision Nacional del Mercado de Valores CNMV
Landsbanki Kepler Germany Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BaFin
Landsbanki Kepler Italia Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa CONSOB
Landsbanki Kepler Nederland Autoriteit Financiële Markten AFM
Landsbanki Kepler Switzerland Swiss Federal Banking Commission SFBC
Teather and Greenwood Limited The Financial Services Authority FSA
Merrion Stockbrokers Limited The Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority IFSRA
Landsbanki Islands hf. The Financial Supervisory Authority FME
Source: Landsbanki Kepler, Teather & Greenwood Limited, Merrion Stockbrokers Limited and Landsbanki Islands hf.
Landsbanki Kepler is authorised and regulated by both Banque de France and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.
Teather & Greenwood Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and is entered in its Register under Firm Reference Number 186677. Teather
& Greenwood Limited is also a member of the London Stock Exchange Plc.
Merrion Stockbrokers Limited is authorised by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority under the Stock Exchange Act, 1995. Merrion Stockbrokers Limited is also a
member firm of the Irish and London Stock Exchanges.
Landsbanki Islands hf. is authorised by Fjármálaeftirlitið (The Financial Supervisory Authority, Iceland). Landsbanki Islands hf. is a member of the OMX Nordic Exchange
and the Oslo Børs.
For further information relating to research recommendations and conflict of interest management please refer to www.kepler-equities.com, www.teathers.com,
www.merrion-capital.com and www.landsbanki.is .
We have discussed only the facts in the report with the company. Disclosure
In Focus
QSC
4 Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion June 15, 2007
The information contained in this publication was obtained from various sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by
Landsbanki or a subsidiary*. Neither Landsbanki nor its subsidiaries warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information and accept no
liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such information, except to the extent required by applicable law.
This publication is a brief summary and does not purport to contain all available information on the subjects covered. Further information
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This publication is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or
sale of any securities, or as an invitation, inducement or intermediation for the sale, subscription or purchase of any securities, or for
engaging in any other transaction. This publication is not directed at private individuals.
Any opinions, projections, forecasts or estimates in this report are those of the author only, who has acted with a high degree of expertise. They
reflect only the current views of the author at the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Landsbanki or its subsidiaries* bear
no obligation to update, modify or amend this publication or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient of this publication in the event that any matter,
opinion, projection, forecast or estimate contained herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is
withdrawn. The analysis, opinions, projections, forecasts and estimates expressed in this report were in no way affected or influenced by the issuer.
The author of this publication benefits financially from the overall success of Landsbanki or its subsidiaries*.
The investments referred to in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.980.571 von muppetshow am 02.08.07 10:33:49naja,staatlich finger bezweifel ich!
die deutsche bahn ist auch kunde von qsc
die deutsche bahn ist auch kunde von qsc
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.980.134 von ennatz1902 am 02.08.07 10:14:07wenn 2008 ca 1 millinen kunden von allen qsc partnern auf komplettanschluß von qsc umgeschaltet werden sind das ca.200 millionen mehr umsatz pro jahr.bei 1&1 hatten sich schon nach 2 wochen 100.000 vorgemerkt.
denke 40% kommen zu qsc 60% telefonica.
nur mal so grob gerechnet,kann auch mehr werden.
man darf 1&1 nicht unterschätzen die erreichen mit online werbung mehr kunden als die telekom.deswegen ist gongster kaum über das internet zu verbreiten da united internet keine werbung für die telekom schaltet.
denke 40% kommen zu qsc 60% telefonica.
nur mal so grob gerechnet,kann auch mehr werden.
man darf 1&1 nicht unterschätzen die erreichen mit online werbung mehr kunden als die telekom.deswegen ist gongster kaum über das internet zu verbreiten da united internet keine werbung für die telekom schaltet.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.980.134 von ennatz1902 am 02.08.07 10:14:07Das ist ja das schlimme, dass "Analysten" und Journalisten mit einem gefährlichen Halbwissen ihre Meinung öffentlich machen. Die Marke Congstar wird sich, wenn überhaupt, mit einem Anteil im Promille-Bereich auf QSC auswirken. Jeder der hier was anderes behauptet hat das Unternehmen QSC nicht verstanden. (Also Congstar ist doch wohl ein Rohrkrepierer, bei den Preisen)
Auch wenn manch einer es schon nicht mehr hören kann, ist doch wohl eines unbestritten: Die fundamentalen Daten haben sich nicht geändert. Ebenso ist der Ausblick, den QSC liefert durchaus als sehr positiv zu werten. Ich habe gestern nochmal ordentlich nachgelegt (hätte nicht gedacht, dass zu diesen Preisen nochmal was ginge) und kann jedem, der meint hier stimmt was nicht, nur sagen: Dann Tschüss! Wenn ich von einer Investition nicht überzeugt bin bzw. irgendein ungutes Gefühl habe, dann trenne ich mich. Und zwar sofort. Jeder, der hier das Unternehmen "schlechtredet" und Fakten nicht korrekt darstellt, hat andere Ziele. (Short etc.) Und mal ehrlich... glaubt hier wirklich auch nur einer, dass unser Geschreibe Einfluss auf den Kurs hat??? (hahaha).
Gruss vom TecNicker
stay looong
Auch wenn manch einer es schon nicht mehr hören kann, ist doch wohl eines unbestritten: Die fundamentalen Daten haben sich nicht geändert. Ebenso ist der Ausblick, den QSC liefert durchaus als sehr positiv zu werten. Ich habe gestern nochmal ordentlich nachgelegt (hätte nicht gedacht, dass zu diesen Preisen nochmal was ginge) und kann jedem, der meint hier stimmt was nicht, nur sagen: Dann Tschüss! Wenn ich von einer Investition nicht überzeugt bin bzw. irgendein ungutes Gefühl habe, dann trenne ich mich. Und zwar sofort. Jeder, der hier das Unternehmen "schlechtredet" und Fakten nicht korrekt darstellt, hat andere Ziele. (Short etc.) Und mal ehrlich... glaubt hier wirklich auch nur einer, dass unser Geschreibe Einfluss auf den Kurs hat??? (hahaha).
Gruss vom TecNicker
stay looong
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.980.510 von muppetshow am 02.08.07 10:31:14Telekom wird aber gern positiver dargestellt, da größere Lobby, alte Verbandelungen, staatliche Finger noch im Spiel, etc.
Druck kommt nicht von Telekom, sondern der Druck kommt von den Alternativen, auf die Telekom.
Warum sonst versucht die Telekom panisch und krampfhaft, verlorene Kunden zurück zu gewinnen? Eine Bekannte von mir arbeitet im Callcenter. Dort läuft ein Dialer, der die alten Kunden automatisch anwählt, und die Mitarbeiter müssen pausenlos die Kunden bearbeiten und zurück gewinnen. Wirklich pausenlos! Sie haben gerade aufgelegt, schon ist der nächste Anruf (outbound) in der Leitung. Kaffeetrinken und Pinkeln wird via Punkteabschlag abgestraft. Takt wird vorgegeben vom Teamleiter, und jeden Abend wird über Quote (Gesprächslänge, Erfolge, Gesprächszahl)abgerechnet.
Hätte QSC sowas nötig?
Warum sonst versucht die Telekom panisch und krampfhaft, verlorene Kunden zurück zu gewinnen? Eine Bekannte von mir arbeitet im Callcenter. Dort läuft ein Dialer, der die alten Kunden automatisch anwählt, und die Mitarbeiter müssen pausenlos die Kunden bearbeiten und zurück gewinnen. Wirklich pausenlos! Sie haben gerade aufgelegt, schon ist der nächste Anruf (outbound) in der Leitung. Kaffeetrinken und Pinkeln wird via Punkteabschlag abgestraft. Takt wird vorgegeben vom Teamleiter, und jeden Abend wird über Quote (Gesprächslänge, Erfolge, Gesprächszahl)abgerechnet.
Hätte QSC sowas nötig?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.980.134 von ennatz1902 am 02.08.07 10:14:07wie wollen die denn gongster verbreiten?
glaube kaum das united für die telekom werbung schaltet
glaube kaum das united für die telekom werbung schaltet
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.980.134 von ennatz1902 am 02.08.07 10:14:07ich bin ja echt mal gespannt, was die Telekom aus Congstar macht. Vor 3 Jahren hatte T-Online ja schon mal mit der Billigmarke Congster (man beachte das "e") gestartet und war scheinbar nicht sehr erfolgreich. Gleiche Geschäftsführer, gleiche Anschrift.
Derzeit versuchen sie mit enormem Werbeaufwand diese Marke zu etablieren....ist ja nix neues, denn die Telekom versucht ja ständig über enorme Werbeausgabe etwas zu erreichen.
Derzeit versuchen sie mit enormem Werbeaufwand diese Marke zu etablieren....ist ja nix neues, denn die Telekom versucht ja ständig über enorme Werbeausgabe etwas zu erreichen.
Hier etwas aus der Financial Times Deutschland
(Quelle: http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/marktberichte/:MDax%2520Te…)
Telekomtitel QSC ächzt unter Preisdruck des Marktführers
...
Schwächster Titel im Technologieindex war QSC mit einem Minus von 5,2 Prozent auf 4,16 Euro. Bereits am Dienstag hatte die Schweizer Großbank UBS das Kursziel von 6 auf 5 Euro gesenkt, aber das Rating von "Neutral 2" beibehalten. Seit der Rivale Deutsche Telekom am 17. Juli die Internet- und Telefon-Billigmarke Congstar einführte, hat die QSC-Aktie zwölf Prozent ihres Werts eingebüßt.
...
Hat Congstar die Zielgruppe "Firmenkunden"? Ich denke nicht. Allein die Homepage richtete sich wohl eher an Schüler und Studenten als an Firmen. Warum soll Congstar dann QSC gefährlich werden, wenn QSC sich hauptsächlich auf Dienstleistungen für Firmenkunden konzentriert?
(Quelle: http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/marktberichte/:MDax%2520Te…)
Telekomtitel QSC ächzt unter Preisdruck des Marktführers
...
Schwächster Titel im Technologieindex war QSC mit einem Minus von 5,2 Prozent auf 4,16 Euro. Bereits am Dienstag hatte die Schweizer Großbank UBS das Kursziel von 6 auf 5 Euro gesenkt, aber das Rating von "Neutral 2" beibehalten. Seit der Rivale Deutsche Telekom am 17. Juli die Internet- und Telefon-Billigmarke Congstar einführte, hat die QSC-Aktie zwölf Prozent ihres Werts eingebüßt.
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Hat Congstar die Zielgruppe "Firmenkunden"? Ich denke nicht. Allein die Homepage richtete sich wohl eher an Schüler und Studenten als an Firmen. Warum soll Congstar dann QSC gefährlich werden, wenn QSC sich hauptsächlich auf Dienstleistungen für Firmenkunden konzentriert?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 30.979.712 von SOFTMAKER am 02.08.07 09:55:09etwas später......wieder neutral.....angeblich von buy runter
IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG: neutral (UBS)
Zürich (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten der UBS stufen die Aktie von IKB (ISIN DE0008063306 (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs)/ WKN 806330) von "buy" auf "neutral" zurück und senken das Kursziel von 32 auf 19 EUR.
Die IKB habe im Zusammenhang mit der Krise am US-Immobilienmarkt eine Gewinnwarnung ausgesprochen, obwohl noch vor zwei Wochen davon die Rede gewesen sei, dass das Engagement am US-Hypothekenmarkt nur einen geringen Beitrag ausmache.
Die Analysten würden daher ihre Prognosen für die IKB überarbeiten. Das Risiko für die Ertragsentwicklung lasse sich derzeit noch nicht absehen.
Für die Finanzierungsgarantien der KfW werde die IKB eine Gebühr zahlen müssen. Die Kosten hierfür, die Gewinnwarnung sowie die möglichen Verluste aus dem Portfolio würden die Gewinnentwicklung des Unternehmens weiterhin belasten.
Vor diesem Hintergrund bewerten die Analysten der UBS die Aktie von IKB nunmehr mit dem Votum "neutral". (Analyse vom 30.07.07) (30.07.2007/ac/a/d)
Analyse-Datum: 30.07.2007
IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG: neutral (UBS)
Zürich (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten der UBS stufen die Aktie von IKB (ISIN DE0008063306 (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs)/ WKN 806330) von "buy" auf "neutral" zurück und senken das Kursziel von 32 auf 19 EUR.
Die IKB habe im Zusammenhang mit der Krise am US-Immobilienmarkt eine Gewinnwarnung ausgesprochen, obwohl noch vor zwei Wochen davon die Rede gewesen sei, dass das Engagement am US-Hypothekenmarkt nur einen geringen Beitrag ausmache.
Die Analysten würden daher ihre Prognosen für die IKB überarbeiten. Das Risiko für die Ertragsentwicklung lasse sich derzeit noch nicht absehen.
Für die Finanzierungsgarantien der KfW werde die IKB eine Gebühr zahlen müssen. Die Kosten hierfür, die Gewinnwarnung sowie die möglichen Verluste aus dem Portfolio würden die Gewinnentwicklung des Unternehmens weiterhin belasten.
Vor diesem Hintergrund bewerten die Analysten der UBS die Aktie von IKB nunmehr mit dem Votum "neutral". (Analyse vom 30.07.07) (30.07.2007/ac/a/d)
Analyse-Datum: 30.07.2007
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