FIRSTSOLAR - $1,50 pro Wp - Werden die etablierten Solarzellenhersteller unter Druck kommen? (Seite 242)

[meinolf67]

Ts,Ts,Ts:

Renewable tax credit and portfolio standard are back in jeopardy as a vote to end debate about the bill fails. Even if those provisions survive the Senate, they face the possibility of a presidential veto.
by: Jennifer Kho
Bullet Arrow December 7, 2007

Greentech advocates said Friday morning they were disappointed after an energy bill passed by the U.S. House on Thursday afternoon failed to get the votes needed to call for a vote in the Senate.
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The 53-to-42 vote fell seven votes short of the 60 required to end debate.

That puts the House back in the position of having to seek a compromise to gain more votes, if it hopes to pass an energy bill.

The House previously passed a similar bill, while the Senate passed a bill that excluded such elements as stricter fuel-economy standards for vehicles, tax credits for renewables and a national renewable portfolio standard.

An informal congressional committee had been working to reconcile the two bills, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., last week announced they had come to an agreement to support a corporate average fuel economy standard of 35 miles per gallon by 2020.

But the tax credits, which would add about $21.5 billion in tax incentives for renewables over the next decade -- paid, in part, by a repeal of $13 billion in tax subsidies for oil and gas producers -- and the renewable portfolio standard, which would require utilities to get 15 percent of their energy from renewable sources, could be back on the cutting block in an attempt to pass the bill.

Environmentalists were unhappy about the news and said they hoped those elements would be included in the final bill.

"We are deeply disappointed by this morning's Senate vote on energy legislation," said Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association. "Our nation is at a critically important crossroads on energy policy and, with this morning's vote, the Senate seems prepared to take the wrong road. … We call on Senate leaders to work together to ensure that overwhelmingly popular provisions to promote renewable electricity are not left out in the cold."

Even Santa Claus is getting involved. In an event sponsored by Citizens for Pennsylvania's Future, Santa Claus and a group of green-energy advocates handed out compact fluorescent light bulbs and urged citizens to contact their legislators in support of the energy bill (see a press release and the group's podcast).

Still, the blocked vote is hardly a surprise. The Senate already had opposed some provisions, such as the renewable tax credits and the portfolio standard, of the House bill the first time it reached the Senate floor (see Renewable Tax Credit and Portfolio Standard Could Get Cut from Energy Bill).

And even if Democrats do manage to get the bill passed nearly intact through the Senate, it faces the possibility of a presidential veto. The White House has warned that it opposes a bill that raises taxes or includes a renewable portfolio standard (see Will Greentech Get Anything From the Energy Bill?).

Ethan Zindler, head of North American research at research firm New Energy Finance, said the vote means it's "back to the drawing board."

"The Democrats in the House were shooting for the moon with this version of the legislation and they didn't get there," he said. "They are going to have to scale things back to try to get the 60 votes. It kind of amazes me that after all that waiting and negotiations supposedly going on all those months, we ended up with a bill that wasn't really much of a compromise. It included everything on everybody's wish list and therefore wasn't going to be able to get all the votes it needed."

Zindler said he expects the final bill will end up including a renewable fuel standard -- the House bill called for the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with 21 billion of those gallons coming from nonfood sources -- and the fuel-economy standards for vehicles. Beyond that, it's still a question mark, he said.

In particular, he said, the portfolio standard concerns the southern members of Congress because they don't think they have adequate wind resources to support their needs and think they will end up having to buy renewable-energy credits from other states.

"They're probably right that that's the case," he said. "Whether or not that's a good enough reason to be against the bill is another story."

[Hoerschwelle]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.711.106 von meinolf67 am 10.12.07 09:14:25

[meinolf67]

December 7, 2007

Washington, DC, USA: House Passes Energy Bill; Solar Industry Starts Calling Their Senators

The solar industry earned a major victory yesterday when the House passed the Energy Security and Savings Act of 2007 and the Clean Renewable Energy and Conservation Tax Act of 2007 (H.R. 6) that includes a $21 billion tax package. Recent lobbying by solar industry proponents has directly resulted in the successful passage in the House of the industry’s top priority, extension and improvement of the solar investment tax credits.

The solar investment tax credit and other tax provisions in H.R. 6 are as follows:

· Provides an eight-year extension (through December 31, 2016) of the existing 30 percent Investment Tax Credit for businesses under Section 48 of the tax code.
· Removes the prohibition barring utilities from using the section 48 Investment Tax Credit.
· Provides the ability for commercial filers to claim the Investment Tax Credit against the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).
· Provides a six-year extension (through December 31, 2014) of the existing 30 percent Investment Tax Credit for residential solar electric and solar water heating property, and raises the cap on the credit for solar electric property to $4,000.
· Provides the ability for personal filers to claim the Investment Tax Credit against the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).

The energy bill now is now under negotiation between the Senate, House and the President.

Rhone Resch, Solar Energy Industries Assocation (SEIA) said, “Today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her colleagues gave the American people exactly what they are demanding – a fundamental shift towards production of clean, domestic renewable energy. With the solar incentives in this legislation, we estimate solar power will provide 50 percent of all new electricity generated in the U.S. within eight years. The growth of solar energy markets will create tens of thousands of high-tech jobs throughout the nation, improve energy security, and save American taxpayers billions in energy costs."

“This historic bill, shifts the U.S. from 20th century energy policy to the 21st century. The $21-billion tax measure reinvests unnecessary oil and gas subsidies into carbon-free renewable technology such as solar. Now, all eyes are on the Senators who must decide if they stand with the 80 percent of Americans who want clean energy and a more secure America or if they will stick with more of the same. American voters are watching.”

Several members of Republican leadership have said that they will vigorously oppose the tax package because it increases taxes on the oil and gas industry and includes a 15 percent national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES). However, the $21 billion tax package is smaller than the roughly $32 billion tax plan Republicans successfully blocked from the broad Senate energy bill approved in June. Democratic Senators have expressed varying degrees of confidence that the bill has the 60 votes needed to pass.

A repeat of the intensive solar industry lobbying activity (reported in the tens of thousands) that took place two weeks ago is now required. This will be a defining moment for the short term prospects of developing a national US solar market.

This morning the Senate did not attain 60 votes on the House-passed Energy Security and Savings Act of 2007 and the Clean Renewable Energy and Conservation Tax Act of 2007 (H.R. 6). Republican leadership effectively organized opposition to the bill, citing as objectionable (1) the increase in taxes on the oil and gas industries in the tax package and (2) the 15 percent national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES). These provisions have also drawn a veto threat from the President.

The tax title is of key importance to the solar industry because it contains extensions of the commercial and residential ITC for eight and six years, respectively.

With the Senate actions this morning considered as a negotiating maneuver, SEIA expects that negotiations will take place between the House and Senate this weekend to develop a compromise bill that can pass the Senate and be signed by the President.

SEIA explains now is the time to call on Republican Senators to pass the energy bill. A busy Senator phone line will simply mean another solar proponent is on the line. Any queue, though, will be worth the wait.

SEIA is targeting Republican senators because Democrats are expected to support the bill. SEIA says forward their message to business colleagues, employees, family, and friends. To locate Senators’ phone numbers, go to: http://capwiz.com/re-action/go/GENenergyvotecall.

Talking Points:

"I work for (name of company) in your state (describe the company).
The solar investment tax credits are critical to our company’s business and must be part of the energy bill this year!
The solar tax credits would decrease energy costs, increase energy independence, and create more jobs in your state.
We need you to vote in support of an Energy Bill, which includes the solar tax provisions. Support the tax title."

SEIA is the national trade association of solar energy manufacturers, dealers, distributors, contractors, installers, architects, consultants and marketers. Established in 1975, SEIA works to expand the use of solar technologies in the global marketplace.

[Hoerschwelle]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.690.303 von meinolf67 am 06.12.07 21:54:52

... The initial idea was to build a 100-megawatt factory in Ohio in about 30 months, reduce the manufacturing cost, "create a new market, and take over the solar world," Ahearn said.

[meinolf67]

For First Solar's Michael Ahearn, a year in the sun
His newly-public firm made solar power cheap, led alternative-energy boom

By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Phoenix attorney Michael Gallagher remembers sending a young lawyer named Michael Ahearn off to trial against a prominent legal opponent in a remote part of Arizona. The rookie was expected to lose big, but when he came back the winner in the case, it made a lasting impression.
"He's very smart, and he's got good instincts," Gallagher said recently. "People underestimate him because he's humble. He's quiet but capable, with great people skills."
Gallagher expected his new star to become a big-time trial lawyer. Instead, Ahearn shone brighter in the world of business, forgoing the courtroom.
Fast-forward to 2007, and Ahearn now sits at the helm of what may be the nation's hottest alternative-power company after turning in a dazzling year as the chief executive of First Solar Inc.

In a year that saw Al Gore win a Nobel Peace Prize for his role in the battle against global warming, the green movement surged across Corporate America and on Wall Street, as Fortune 500 companies acted to cut greenhouse gases and dependency on fossil fuels.
Ahearn, 50, led Phoenix-based First Solar as it went public in late 2006 and wowed Wall Street this year as its stock-market value enjoyed an eightfold surge. First Solar ranks as the biggest pure-play alternative-energy company in the land, and its $18 billion market value surpasses those of General Motors Corp. and Consolidated Edison Inc.
Along the way, Ahearn beat out the competition in the race to bring thin-film solar modules -- a cheaper way of converting sunlight into electricity -- from the test phase to broad-scale production.
"This is a really admirable achievement -- scaling up the business, and reproducing it in a big way in terms of operations," said Ken Zweibel, president of PrimeStar Solar, a rival of First Solar. "They've also set a high standard for the rest of the industry in terms of product recycling."
Ahearn became CEO seven years ago, but his efforts bore world-class fruit in the past 12 months as the company made major strides toward offering solar power at costs comparable to conventional electricity, without the need for subsidies.
For proving solar energy's bonanza potential and outshining other corporate efforts to go green in a watershed year, Michael Ahearn became a finalist for the 2007 MarketWatch CEO of the Year award.
Growing at Internet speed
After slogging through the cheap-energy years of the 1980s and 1990s, the solar world has rocketed to the forefront in the past few years, no more so than in 2007, just as First Solar's star was rising.
As many other sectors of the stock market sold off on jitters over the credit crisis and the housing slowdown, energy stocks of all stripes rode a big wave of investment.
Alternative-energy shares glittered as a hedge against record oil prices. Concern over imported crude oil and rising carbon-dioxide emissions captivated investors around the globe.
By all accounts, the solar industry is having its moment in the sun. U.S. growth of installed megawatts is pegged at 60% this year, up from 43% growth in 2006, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the industry's trade group.
Proceeding at Internet speed in 2007, First Solar grew beyond its production roots in Ohio; opened its second plant, in Frankfurt, Germany; and broke ground in Malaysia on what will be its third factory, with plans to kick off production there by the end of next year.
First Solar was busy making deals, too. It acquired commercial solar project designer Turner Renewable Energy LLC for about $34.3 million. Turner Renewable, named in January when former media magnate Ted Turner invested in it, will operate as a unit of First Solar.
Another milestone that grabbed Wall Street's attention: First Solar became the first to achieve the highly sought-after energy conversion rate of more than 10% for its thin-film solar technology. That approach generates less power per square foot than the more conventional approach of crystallized-silicon photovoltaics, but Ahearn's company is in it because it offers major cost savings.
And First Solar went through this heavy growth phase all while generating profit on the bottom line. In its most recent quarterly report, First Solar's net income grew by 10 times to $46 million, while revenue increased twofold to $156 million from $77 million.
Chart of FSLR
Ahearn's team has made attracting customers look easy, reporting $6 billion in sales contracts, selling out nearly all its production capacity, through 2012.
These achievements in an atmosphere of heightened interest in green power have led First Solar to outperform rivals such as SunPower Corp.
With its pedigree, First Solar's initial public offering raised $400 million at $20 a share on Nov. 17, 2006. The stock more than quadrupled by the time of its secondary offering of 6.5 million shares on Aug. 13, when it raised $618 million at $95 a share.
Since then, the stock has reached for the sun, breaking through the $200 barrier in November and attaining a forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio in the 180 range.
In 2007, First Solar didn't only bulk up to become the solar industry's largest player. It's also bigger than any pure-play U.S. biofuel, wind, geothermal, electric power specialist or clean-coal name in business -- all within a year of going public.
"Their gross margins are 10% to 20% better than the competition," says J. Michael Horwitz, an analyst with Pacific Growth Equities. "And their technology continues to improve."
Wal-Mart roots
The way Ahearn tells the story, it wouldn't have happened without the backing of the late John T. Walton, one of the children of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton. (John Walton died in a plane crash in 2005. His estate remains the biggest single shareholder in First Solar through a holding company called JWMA Partners.)
Back when Ahearn worked as a lawyer in Phoenix, he was introduced to John Walton through a mutual friend, Bob Solem, who later became a partner with him in True North Partners LLC. Ahearn initially represented Walton in investment matters and teamed up with the Wal-Mart heir in 1996 to co-found True North, as JWMA was previously known.

"With John, what we were trying to find was technology that would potentially be disruptive to existing mainstream markets ... and basically take share from the incumbents that were doing it the old way," Ahearn said in a telephone interview. "He wasn't trying to invest and then liquidate and earn a targeted return on an investment portfolio. It was, 'Let's go out and build the next great company.' "
In 1999, True North put $45 million into Ohio-based Solar Cells Inc., which traced its roots to inventor Harold McMaster and James F. Nolan, now a board member at First Solar.
The initial idea was to build a 100-megawatt factory in Ohio in about 30 months, reduce the manufacturing cost, "create a new market, and take over the solar world," Ahearn said.


"Photovoltaics fit Walton's disruptive-business paradigm in the sense that it allows a consumer to generate their own electricity," Ahearn said. "If you put PV on site, on a rooftop or a building façade, and if you add the technology, improve the costs, it's potentially disruptive to the regulated-utility model that distributes everything from a central grid."
As he grew more involved with the project, Ahearn found himself in the position to take over the CEO role amid the growing opinion at True North that the company was falling short of its goals under the former management.
"I said, 'Look I'll remove these guys and serve as an interim CEO while we hire the right guys,' " he recalled. "When I got in there, I realized we were further behind than I thought. We didn't have a technology process defined. We didn't know yet whether it would even work, whether we could reach commercial production scale.
"We still had a lot of optimization and development work to do. And I didn't think we'd be able to attract the kind of CEO we needed, nor did we need one at that point. What we needed was processing-engineering talent, people who had been through a similar development phase with semiconductor products."
Ahearn shut down the prototype plant. He focused on beefing up its ranks of process engineers, mechanical engineering and operations people, while overseeing training sessions in robust engineering and Six Sigma, a management concept popularized by a number of big corporations.
But by 2002, in the depths of a bear market, First Solar had burned through its initial $45 million in cash and needed more.
At the time, "You couldn't get any [venture] money for something like this. It just wasn't possible," Ahearn said. "There were other thin-film solar start-ups that went away right about that time. We were able to convince John to hang with the plan."
Ahearn's old boss, Michael Gallagher, has credited Ahearn's persuasive skills with getting Walton to pump more money into First Solar. "They had put money into three or four other companies and lost money on them, but Mike managed to keep them on board for First Solar," he said.
It took another $100 million from Walton and two more years before First Solar got its first commercial production line running in 2004, with a total investment of about $150 million.
The gamble has paid off, and then some. Walton's estate and its affiliates collectively hold about 47% of the voting power of the company's stock -- a stake that's now worth more than $8 billion.
Today Ahearn holds 4.74 million shares, worth about $1 billion. He sold 390,000 shares over the summer in the company's secondary offering for gross proceeds of about $37 million, according to a company filing.
But even with these rich monetary rewards, Ahearn insisted he's got much more in mind than material advancement. Pausing to reflect on the time spent bringing First Solar's product to market, he laughed about the comparison to being a dad all over again after having two kids of his own.
"That's a pretty good analogy," he said. "We had that discussion with a couple of our guys during leadership training. I asked, 'Do you have a good relationship with your kid?' It's the same thing. Just think about the steps to getting there. It's not that different."
Eye on the U.S.
Even with healthy margins and a beefy market cap, Ahearn said First Solar won't rest until it reaches its internal goal of subsidy-free solar energy, even as it profits in underwritten markets in Germany and elsewhere.
Conergy, a German-based alternative-energy supplier, is a major customer, along with EDF Energies Nouvelles, a unit of the giant French utility EDF.
So far, First Solar gets only about 3% of its sales in the U.S., with plans to move into the market starting in 2008 as it ratchets down the cost per watt of its solar products in 2010.
In investor presentations, First Solar wastes no time flashing its existing production cost of $1.19 per watt, less than half the $3.10 a watt for traditional crystalline silicon, based on internal and industry estimates.
The lower price puts First Solar on the front line in making solar energy economically viable without any form of subsidies. It's a point of pride for Ahearn.
"That's where we want to be," Ahearn said of grid parity. "When John and I made the investment, that was always the goal."
To get there, Ahearn has instilled a mantra of cost cutting in the manufacturing process throughout its culture of 1,200-plus employees, all of whom receive stock options as an incentive.
"We're trying to foster an environment where they're partners and they have a stake in the business," Ahearn said of the company's incentive program. "It's actually worked better than I thought."
Ahearn acknowledged, however, that the stock's meteoric rise has been a distraction.
"The more the stock prices goes up, the more people internally start thinking about the stock price and how you perpetuate that, and how we meet expectations." Ahearn said. "I think that can really take you out of your game. We have to be focused on that 2010 plan. The other stuff will take care of itself. ... We need to spend a little more time internally making sure we keep our focus."
Grid parity
For now, First Solar is readying a role in the U.S. as utility companies move to boost their clean-energy standards.
"They'll need to get some renewable energy installed," Ahearn said. "There's a pretty good unmet demand there."
Winning over the incumbent power companies may take time. FPL Group, for example, is opting to build a thermal solar operations for now -- a way of using heat from the sun to generate steam to drive turbines, rather than harnessing power through panels.
"Once the industry can get to grid parity without subsidies, solar will become a viable component for the large growth in power demand expected here and around the world," said Mark Manley, alternative-energy analyst for Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. "But the industry will still need to partner with utilities and structure the right project financing, just like any other energy technology."
Manley said the solar business remains vulnerable to the "stroke of the pen" risk of fickle government subsidies -- now under debate on a national scale in Washington.
On this front, Ahearn has been invited to participate in discussions with members of Congress in Washington. In meetings with lawmakers, he has voiced support for national renewable portfolio standards, while questioning the conventional wisdom that alternative energy must have subsidies to survive.
Like Wal-Mart before him, Ahearn aims to deliver everyday low prices as First Solar positions itself as the largest, low-cost provider of photovoltaic energy.
"We're tracking to the milestones to hit the targets," he said. "There's still a fair amount of work to be done and some risk involved. It's too soon to claim victory, but I think we're making pretty good progress."

[Hoerschwelle]

... betrifft zwar SPWR, aber es zeigt, dass man in den USA schon etwas machen kann, wenngleich es lächerlich ist, das ein 15 MW Kraftwerk das größte der USA ist

http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9829328-54.html


FSLR rules!

[Hoerschwelle]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.677.463 von petsy678 am 05.12.07 21:23:53

Schätze das das schon länger im Preis drinnen ist, zumindest haben aus meiner Beobachtung die Buden die in den NASDAQ100 gekommen sind nicht zwingend zulegen können, anders als es vermutlich bei Centrotherm in 20 Minuten ins Haus steht.

Um 22:00 Uhr fällt die DeBö die Entscheidung

[petsy678]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.676.964 von Hoerschwelle am 05.12.07 20:35:21

na wenn das kein Grund ist einzusteigen/nachzukaufen!

[Hoerschwelle]

First Solar, Sunpower Likely to Be Added to the Nasdaq 100 This Month

Each year the Nasdaq 100 is reorganized to include most of the 100 largest non-financial stocks from the exchange. Market underpeformers which are no longer among the top 100 Nasdaq stocks by market cap are removed from the index each year in December and replaced with new large caps.

For example, in 2005 Google (GOOG) was added to the QQQQ on Dec 13th. In 2006 Infosys (INFY) was added on Dec 11th. Assuming about 10 stocks are removed this year, any non-financial with a market cap over about $8 billion should make it in. This would make First Solar (FSLR) nearly a lock and SunPower's (SPWR) addition is probable barring a major selloff within the next few weeks.

Being added to the QQQQ can definitely be seen as a bullish indicator. Market makers are forced to buy shares of the individual components of the QQQQ in order to match their clients' ETF holdings. In addition, it can bring recognition to companies that most retail investors have never heard of, essentially acting as free marketing.

[petsy678]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.668.540 von Hoerschwelle am 05.12.07 09:30:26

Danke für deine gute Info. Ich bin mittelfristig investiert (12 Monate), es kann aber auch mal länger werden. Definitiv nehme ich auch mal Gewinne mit, wenn's zu gut geht und dann beginnt das Spielchen halt wieder.

IMHO ist das Rohstoff-Thema TE bei First Solar wichtig, aber nicht strategisch problematisch. FSLR wird beginnen sich Alternativen suchen. Aktuell ist die Marge so hoch, dass das Risiko sich in Grenzen hält. Überhaupt gefällt mir die Low-Cost Production in Asien. Damit wird FSLR die Kostenführerschaft behalten. Jetzt kommt es nur noch auf das Wachstum an. Ich denke, wenn wie die Analysten sagen, neue Fabriken in 2008 angekündigt werden, geht es richtig ab. Im Moment alles etwas wackelig und abhängig von den Reaktion der USA auf Bali etc.

We will see...

Grüße,
Petsy

PS: Deine Kursziele sind ja schon oft eingetreten; deshalb sehe ich sehr wohlwollend der 350$ entgegen