LYNAS - Faktenthread, Analysen, Querverweise u. Meldungen zum Unternehmen (Seite 271)

[roof]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.337.614 von think_about am 17.10.10 15:36:29

die wollen keinen deutsche politiker, sondern seltene erden...

werden bei uns in deutschland auch welche abgebaut???

klärt mich da bitte auf - danke

[think_about]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.337.595 von jrsh am 17.10.10 15:25:25

Vielleicht senden wir ja eine Abordnung unserer Politiker nach Japan.
Das wäre dann eine Unterstützung mit Seltenen (H)Erden.

thinkabout

[jrsh]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.334.409 von Optimist_ am 16.10.10 10:28:34

hat Bundeswirtschaftsminister Rainer Brüderle den Asiaten Unterstützung angeboten.

nur wie die Hilfe exakt aussehen soll hat der Brüderle natürlich nicht bekundet. Typisches Politikergelaber oder hat die Merkel vielleicht eventuell einen geheimen REE-Schatz versteckt

[2014]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.334.409 von Optimist_ am 16.10.10 10:28:34

Was wollen wir den jetzt mit den Japaner

[JoJo49]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.334.409 von Optimist_ am 16.10.10 10:28:34

Dank Dir!

Dir so wie auch @ noch ein schönes Restwochenende

Grüsse JoJo

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/rare_earths…
128
RARE EARTHS1
[Data in metric tons of rare-earth oxide (REO) content unless otherwise noted]

Domestic Production and Use: In 2009, rare earths were not mined in the United States; however, rare-earth concentrates previously produced at Mountain Pass, CA, were processed into lanthanum concentrate and didymium (75% neodymium, 25% praseodymium) products. Rare-earth concentrates, intermediate compounds, and individual oxides were available from stocks. The United States continued to be a major consumer, exporter, and importer of rare-earth products in 2009. The estimated value of refined rare earths imported by the United States in 2009 was $84 million, a decrease from $186 million imported in 2008. Based on final 2008 reported data, the estimated 2008 distribution of rare earths by end use, in decreasing order, was as follows: metallurgical applications and alloys, 29%; electronics, 18%; chemical catalysts, 14%; rare-earth phosphors for computer monitors, lighting, radar, televisions, and x-ray-intensifying film, 12%; automotive catalytic converters, 9%; glass polishing and ceramics, 6%; permanent magnets, 5%; petroleum refining catalysts, 4%; and other, 3%.

Salient Statistics—United States: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e
Production, bastnäsite concentrates — — — — —
Imports:2
Thorium ore (monazite or various thorium materials) — — — — 20
Rare-earth metals, alloy 880 867 784 679 210
Cerium compounds 2,170 2,590 2,680 2,080 1,190
Mixed REOs 640 1,570 2,570 2,390 2,760
Rare-earth chlorides 2,670 2,750 1,610 1,310 390
Rare-earth oxides, compounds 8,550 10,600 9,900 8,740 2,160
Ferrocerium, alloys 130 127 123 125 100
Exports:2
Thorium ore (monazite or various thorium materials) — — 1 61 23
Rare-earth metals, alloys 636 733 1,470 1,390 6,500
Cerium compounds 2,210 2,010 1,470 1,380 690
Other rare-earth compounds 2,070 2,700 1,300 663 420
Ferrocerium, alloys 4,320 3,710 3,210 4,490 2,540
Consumption, apparent (excludes thorium ore) 6,060 9,350 10,200 7,410 (3)
Price, dollars per kilogram, yearend:
Bastnäsite concentrate, REO basise 5.51 6.06 6.61 8.82 5.73
Monazite concentrate, REO basise 0.54 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87
Mischmetal, metal basis, metric ton quantity4 5-6 5-6 7-8 8-9 8-9
Stocks, producer and processor, yearend W W W W W
Employment, mine and mill, number at yearend 71 65 70 100 110
Net import reliance5 as a percentage of
apparent consumption 100 100 100 100 100

Recycling: Small quantities, mostly permanent magnet scrap.

Import Sources (2005-08): Rare-earth metals, compounds, etc.: China, 91%; France, 3%; Japan, 3%; Russia, 1%; and other, 2%.
Tariff: Item Number Normal Trade Relations
12-31-09

Thorium ores and concentrates (monazite) 2612.20.0000 Free.
Rare-earth metals, whether or
not intermixed or interalloyed 2805.30.0000 5.0% ad val.
Cerium compounds 2846.10.0000 5.5% ad val.
Mixtures of REOs (except cerium oxide) 2846.90.2010 Free.
Mixtures of rare-earth chlorides
(except cerium chloride) 2846.90.2050 Free.
Rare-earth compounds, individual
REOs (excludes cerium compounds) 2846.90.8000 3.7% ad val.
Ferrocerium and other pyrophoric alloys 3606.90.3000 5.9% ad val.
Depletion Allowance: Monazite, 22% on thorium content and 14% on rare-earth content (Domestic), 14% (Foreign); bastnäsite and xenotime, 14% (Domestic and foreign).

Government Stockpile: None.
Prepared by James B. Hedrick [[phone], [e-mail], fax: [phone]]


129
RARE EARTHS
Events, Trends, and Issues: Domestic consumption of rare earths in 2009 decreased substantially, based on apparent consumption (derived from 8 months of trade data). Only one of seven rare-earth import categories increased when compared with those of 2008—the category “mixtures of REOs (except cerium oxide).” Prices were generally lower in 2009 compared with those of 2008 for most rare-earth products amid decreased consumption and a declining supply. Consumption for most rare-earth uses in the United States decreased as a consequence of the worldwide economic downturn. The economic downturn lowered consumption of cerium compounds used in automotive catalytic converters and in glass additives and glass-polishing compounds; rare-earth chlorides used in the production of fluid-cracking catalysts used in oil refining; rare-earth compounds used in automotive catalytic converters and many other applications; rare-earth metals and their alloys used in armaments, base-metal alloys, lighter flints, permanent magnets, pyrophoric alloys, and superalloys; yttrium compounds used in color televisions and flat-panel displays, electronic thermometers, fiber optics, lasers, and oxygen sensors; and phosphors for color televisions, electronic thermometers, fluorescent lighting, pigments, superconductors, x-ray-intensifying screens, and other applications. The trend is for a continued increase in the use of rare earths in many applications, especially automotive catalytic converters, permanent magnets, and rechargeable batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles.
The rare-earth separation plant at Mountain Pass, CA, resumed operations in 2007 and continued to operate throughout 2009. Bastnäsite concentrates and other rare-earth intermediates and refined products continued to be sold from mine stocks at Mountain Pass. Exploration for rare earths continued in 2009; however, global economic conditions were not as favorable as in early 2008. Economic assessments continued at Bear Lodge in Wyoming; Diamond Creek in Idaho; Elk Creek in Nebraska; Hoidas Lake in Saskatchewan, Canada; Nechalacho (Thor Lake) in Northwest Territories, Canada; Kangankunde in Malawi; Lemhi Pass in Idaho-Montana; Nolans Project in Northern Territory, Australia; and various other locations around the world. At the Mount Weld rare-earth deposit in Australia, the initial phase of mining of the open pit was completed in June 2008. A total of 773,000 tons of ore was mined at an average grade of 15.4% REO; however, no beneficiation plant existed to process the ore into a rare-earth concentrate. Based on the fine-grained character of the Mt. Weld ore, only 50% recovery of the REO was expected.

World Mine Production and Reserves: Reserves data for Australia, China, and India were updated based on data from the respective countries.

Mine productione Reserves6
2008 2009
United States — — 13,000,000
Australia — — 5,400,000
Brazil 650 650 48,000
China 120,000 120,000 36,000,000
Commonwealth of Independent States NA NA 19,000,000
India 2,700 2,700 3,100,000
Malaysia 380 380 30,000
Other countries NA NA 22,000,000
World total (rounded) 124,000 124,000 99,000,000

World Resources: Rare earths are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust, but discovered minable concentrations are less common than for most other ores. U.S. and world resources are contained primarily in bastnäsite and monazite. Bastnäsite deposits in China and the United States constitute the largest percentage of the world’s rare-earth economic resources, while monazite deposits in Australia, Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and the United States constitute the second largest segment. Apatite, cheralite, eudialyte, loparite, phosphorites, rare-earth-bearing (ion adsorption) clays, secondary monazite, spent uranium solutions, and xenotime make up most of the remaining resources. Undiscovered resources are thought to be very large relative to expected demand.

Substitutes: Substitutes are available for many applications but generally are less effective.
eEstimated. NA Not available. W Withheld to avoid disclosing company proprietary data. — Zero.
1Data include lanthanides and yttrium but exclude most scandium. See also Scandium and Yttrium.
2REO equivalent or contents of various materials were estimated. Data from U.S. Census Bureau.
3Without drawdown in producer stocks (withheld), apparent consumption calculations in 2009 resulted in a negative number.
4Price range from Elements—Rare Earths, Specialty Metals and Applied Technology, Trade Tech, Denver, CO, and Web-based High Tech Materials, Longmont, CO, and Hefa Rare Earth Canada Co. Ltd., Richmond, British Columbia, Canada.
5Defined as imports – exports + adjustments for Government and industry stock changes. For 2007 through 2009, excludes producer stock changes.
6See Appendix C for definitions. Reserve base estimates were discontinued in 2009; see Introduction.
U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2010

übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=U…

News:
:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Akihiro%20Ohata&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja

[Optimist_]

Hier ein paar aktuelle Artikel, die zeigen, dass das Thema Seltene Erden-Engpass keinesfalls gelöst ist oder sich abschwächt.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/rohstoffre…

Deutschland hilft Japan mit seltenen Erden aus
16.10.2010 09:26 Uhr

Hilfe auf dem „kleinen Dienstweg“: Da Japan rapide die seltenen Erden ausgehen, hat Bundeswirtschaftsminister Rainer Brüderle den Asiaten Unterstützung angeboten. Die Japaner leiden unter einem von China gegen den Nachbarn verhängten Exportstopp. Überhaupt wollen Tokio und Berlin in Sachen Rohstoffe künftig gemeinsame Sache machen.

HB JEKATERINBURG. Bundeswirtschaftsminister Rainer Brüderle (FDP) will Japan helfen, aus einem Versorgungsengpass bei Seltenen Erden herauszukommen. Japan habe nur noch Vorräte für etwa vier Wochen. China, das 92 Prozent der Weltproduktion stelle, habe einen Exportstopp für Seltene Erden nach Japan verfügt, erläuterte Brüderle am Samstag in Jekaterinburg/Russland bei einer Zwischenlandung auf dem Rückflug von seiner Asien-Reise nach Berlin.


Rainer Brüderle in Schanghai: Der Minister besprach bei seinem Asienbesuch auch das Thema Rohstoffreserven. Quelle: dpa

Die Stoffe würden gebraucht in Handys und Computern. Deutschland und Japan wollten daher prüfen, ob sie gemeinsam in der Welt die Rohstoff-Exploration vorantreiben könnten, sagte Brüderle. So gebe es Vorkommen in Namibia, der Mongolei und den USA.

Die Mongolei sei zum Beispiel von DDR-Geologen erforscht worden. Er schließe nicht aus, dass sich auch andere Länder an der Exploration beteiligten. Auch sollten Deutschland und Japan gemeinsam nach Ersatz für die Stoffe forschen.

Peking habe den Exportstopp nach Japan verhängt wegen der Festnahme von chinesischen Fischern durch Japan vor Inseln, die beide Länder beanspruchten. Die Fischer seien aber wieder freigelassen worden, sagte Brüderle. Der Minister hatte zuvor berichtet, bei seinen Gesprächen in Peking habe er den Exportstopp kritisiert. Die chinesische Seite habe unter anderem auf Landschaftszerstörung durch den Gesteinsabbau für die Seltenen Erden hingewiesen. Andere Länder könnten die Stoffe ja auch abbauen, hatte Handelsminister Chen Deming erklärt.

Brüderle sagte weiter, Japan könnte auch versuchen, Handys zu recyclen oder in anderen Staaten die Seltenen Erden zu kaufen. Die Kooperation habe er am Freitag verabredet bei seinen Gesprächen in Tokio mit dem japanischen Wirtschaftsminister Akihiro Ohata und dem stellvertretenden Premier Banri Kaieda.

BASF-Vorstand Martin Brudermüller hatte zuvor von einer “Innovationswelle“ in der deutschen Industrie gesprochen, die die Knappheit der Seltenen Erden auslösen werde. Es würden Ersatzstoffe und Verfahren gesucht, mit denen sie in geringerer Menge benötigt würden.

________________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.ftd.de/wissen/:infografik-hier-stecken-die-selten…

Hier stecken die Seltenen Erden



________________________________________________________________________________________

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870404990457555…

* ASIA NEWS* OCTOBER 16, 2010
Japan Scrambles for Rare Earth

Tokyo Seeks to Sidestep Reliance on Uncertain Supplies From China; Issue a Priority Elsewhere, Too

By YUKA HAYASHI in Tokyo and JAMES T. AREDDY in Shanghai

Alarmed by China's move to cut shipments of critical metals used by high-tech companies and auto makers, Japan is scrambling to find alternative supplies, particularly by developing new mines abroad.

Japanese companies have faced sharp cuts in imports of what are known as rare-earth metals from China since July, a situation that has deteriorated sharply since the two nations became embroiled in a thorny bilateral spat following a ship collision in disputed waters in the East China Sea last month. This has fueled anxieties in Japan, by far the world's largest rare-earth importer, as China has come to dominate the metals' world production with a 97% share, having priced out producers in other nations like the U.S. and Australia in the past two decades.

Because of the strategic nature of rare-earth trade, this has renewed the sense among Japanese policy makers that the government must play a bigger role in ensuring supplies of natural resources at a time when rapid developments in emerging economies intensify competition for industrial materials. Tokyo plans to allocate 100 billion yen ($1.2 billion) to improve rare-earth supplies in an extra budget for the current fiscal year through March this fiscal year, roughly half of which is earmarked for overseas mining projects. Research and development of alternative materials, as well as facilities to recycle metals from discarded computers and cellphones, will also receive funding.

This month, Prime Minister Naoto Kan agreed with Mongolian Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold on a fast-track project to develop rare-earth metals in Mongolia. Exploration is starting this month. Similarly, Japan's Sumitomo Corp. is developing a mine in Kazakhstan.

Sojitz Corp., a trading company and one of Japan's largest rare-earth importers, estimates Japan will face a shortage of 10,200 tons of the metals next year if China keeps its global export quota at this year's level of around 30,000 tons. Japan is projected to use 32,000 tons next year, compared with 24,800 tons for the other nations excluding China combined, Sojitz says.

"Securing stable long-term supplies of mining resources including rare earths is one of Japan's important diplomatic goals," Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara said at a press conference this month. "We will work as a team to provide strong support for our private companies."

Such efforts, however, are complicated by a lack of clarity from China, which abruptly notified importers over the summer that it will reduce rare-earth shipments by 40% this year from 2009. It's unclear how long such cuts will remain in place, making it difficult for companies to determine whether to go ahead with costly new mining projects. The shortage is expected to last at least through 2011, until supplies from new projects begin to reach the market.

Earlier this month, South Korea said it will spend it plans to spend 17 billion won ($15 million) by 2016 as part of a long-term plan that seeks to secure 1,200 metric tons in rare-earths reserves, according to the Asociated Press. Despite their name, there are abundant global rare-earth reserves, including in the U.S., Canada and South Africa, experts say, but their processing is often expensive and dirty.

"The only real solution to the problem is to buy new mining rights overseas," said Toru Okabe, an engineering professor specializing in rare metals at the University of Tokyo. "But mines outside of China don't have cost-competitiveness. If China begins to flood the market with cheap supplies again, they wouldn't stand the competition."

Since China's latest cuts are concentrated in the second half of the year, its effects began being felt especially during the past few months. Japanese companies say the shipments have become severely restricted since late last month.

Government officials in China deny they ever ordered a halt in rare-earth exports to Japan. Instead, they have responded to criticism of the quotas—from the U.S., European Union and Japanese officials—by saying the system is needed for the sustainability of an industry that expanded too quickly and can be detrimental to the environment. Officials have also pointed to efforts to limit smuggling of the elements, including to Japan.

"What we pursue is to satisfy not only the domestic demand but also the global demand of rare earths. We should not only stand from the present, but should also look forward to the future," Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier this month.

In late September, China customs agents appeared to drag their feet at the nation's ports in examining all goods on the Japanese routes. Some trading firms say inspection activity began returning to normal after a weeklong holiday this month. Japanese officials say, however, disruptions of Japan-bound shipments at customs continue, and have even hinted they may take the case to the World Trade Organization. A spokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday China's rare-earth restrictions on rare-earth exploration, production and export are consistent with international regulations.

One factor that may underlie China's export controls is a belief among policy makers that the country's stock of rare-earth elements is being sold too cheaply. "China is the largest producer and exporter of rare earth, but it does not enjoy enough rights to set its price in the international market," Guo Chaoxian, a scholar at a think tank under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a commentary published this week in state-run newspaper China Daily.

So far, the shipment cuts haven't had serious impact on Japanese manufacturers thanks to their stockpiles that can last for anywhere from a few months to a few years.

Japan isn't alone in searching for ways to supplement China's output or sidestep global reliance on an uncertain supplier.

Rare earths include a number of different elements, that are usually mined at the same mines but are used for different purposes. One particular element facing surging demand is called dysprosium, a magnetic material used in motors for hybrid cars and for magnetic disc drives for personal computers.



Shortages are likely to ease starting from 2012, when production from new mining projects starts. Sojitz and another Japanese trading company, Toyota Tsusho Corp., are studying a project in Vietnam with the Japanese government funding the cost of environmental protection in the area.

In the U.S., Molycorp Minerals LLC, based in Greenwood Village, Colo., said in March it will restart active mining of fresh rare earths at its Mountain Pass, Calif., mine. It currently ships finished rare-earth products stockpiled during the previous round of mining. U.S. policy makers are also concerned about China's hold on rare-earth supplies. In late September, the House of Representatives passed a bill which would bolster efforts to develop new rare-earth sources and identify alternative materials. That bill awaits Senate consideration.

In addition, The U.S. Department of Defense is completing a study to identify potential national security risks of rare-earth dependency. Much high-end military equipment relies on the metals for miniaturization of components.

European companies have become increasingly concerned this year over China's domination of the rare-earth market. Europe accounts for 10% of world demand for rare earths, compared with 8% in the U.S. and 24% for Japan, according to estimates by Christian Hocquard, an economist with BRGM, a French public research group. (China accounts for 54%.)

In a letter to EU leaders last month ahead of a summit in Brussels with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, BusinessEurope, a business lobby group said it was "alarmed" by China's move to cut export quotas. The group says the metals are essential to industries in which Europe has a leadership role, such as wind turbines and high-speed trains.

Prospects for local production in Europe, which accounts for about 10% of rare-earth demand, are limited, though mines in Estonia and Greenland, which is an autonomous country within Denmark, are under development.
—Nathan Hodge in Washington and Stephen Fidler in Brussels contributed to this article.

Write to Yuka Hayashi at [e-mail] and James T. Areddy at [e-mail]

_______________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-16/china-says-its-medi…

China Says Its Medium, Heavy Rare Earth Reserves May Last Only 15-20 Years

China’s medium and heavy rare earths reserves may last 15 years to 20 years at the current rate of production, possibly requiring imports, the Ministry of Commerce said today.

Domestic rare earths deposits dropped to 27 million metric tons by the end of 2009, or just 30 percent of the world’s total known reserves, from 43 million tons, or 43 percent of the world total, in 1996, Chao Ning, section chief of foreign trade at the ministry said at a Beijing conference.

China, controller of more than 90 percent of production of the materials used in cell phones and radar, cut its export quotas by 72 percent for the second half and reduced output, spurring a trade dispute with the U.S. The country may not be able to meet growing global demand as the government continues to curb output, Lynas Corp. said in March.

“We cannot rule out the possibility that China may need to rely on imports sometime in the future for these minerals, instead of supplying the world,” Chao said.

Japan, the world’s biggest importer of rare earths, will urge China to boost shipments of the minerals after a government survey showed that 31 Japanese buyers reported problems with exports, Trade Minister Akihiro Ohata said in Tokyo Oct. 5.

U.S. Complaint

The U.S. has asked business groups and labor unions to provide evidence that China is hoarding these elements for a case that might be filed at the World Trade Organization.

Production and export quota cuts are to protect the environment and in line with World Trade Organization rules, Yao Jian, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said yesterday.

China reduced its quota for rare-earth exports to 7,976 tons for the half, compared with 22,283 tons for the first half and 28,417 tons for second half of last year, according to data from the ministry.

“China cannot afford to continue to carry the burden of supplying the world, from a strategic, environment and economic point of view,” Chao said.

Rare earths are a group of 17 chemically similar metallic elements, including lanthanum, cerium, neodymium and europium. The U.S. was self-sufficient in the materials until the mid- 1980s, when lower labor and regulatory costs helped China’s climb to dominance, the U.S. Geological Survey said in a report.

“China is not the only country that has these deposits, but it has been carrying the lion’s share of the supply in more than a decade, at the cost of quickly depleting its own resources and hurting its environment,” Chao said.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Tighe at [e-mail]

________________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS404649577220101015

Amid Tension Over Rare Earth Supplies, Solutions Emerge

Last week, the House of Representatives passed the Rare Earths and Critical Materials Revitalization Act of 2010, by a 324 to 98 margin. The legislation would support the discovery and development of rare earth sites inside of the U.S. in an effort to reduce the auto industry's near-complete dependence on China for the minerals-which are an essential component in modern high-efficiency electric motors.

.....

Also dann, ein schönes Wochenende allen!

[muff67]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.319.782 von roof am 14.10.10 11:39:32

hallo roof,
danke fürs Reinstellen des Artikels!!!
Sehr gut - trifft den Nagel auf den Kopf...die Chinesen sind uns um Längen voraus und das noch bei massivem Understatment....

gruß muff

[beacker38]

schöner chart

[schlumpftrader]

hallo,

ein artikel von www.handelsblatt.com

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/konflikt-mit…

bye
schlumpftrader

[roof]

China: Eine unglaubliche Studie

von Jochen Stanzl

Donnerstag 14.10.2010, 10:47 Uhr

Es wird immer sichtbarer, dass China zunehmend seinen eigenen Kurs einschlägt, auf den der Westen keinen Einfluss mehr nehmen kann, außer mit schädlichen Maßnahmen wie neuen Handelsschranken. China habe die Schwächephase der westlichen Volkswirtschaften in den vergangenen beiden Jahren genutzt, um mit subventionierten Krediten Marktanteile zu sichern, meint der Vorsitzende des Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft, Klaus Mangold, in einem Positionspapier, das am Mittwoch vorgestellt wurde. Dabei spielt Mangold auf die zunehmende Sicherung von Rohstoffvorkommen durch China an. Bundeswirtschaftsminister Rainer Brüderle (FDP) bezeichnete speziell die Sicherung der Vorkommen von seltenen Metallen als „unfreundlichen Akt.“

China kontrolliert mehr als 90% der seltenen Metalle wie Wolfram und Germanium, was Windkraftanlagenbauer, IT-Fertiger und Autokonzerne bedroht, schreibt die „Financial Times Deutschland“ auf ihrer Webseite. Für Rohstoffinvestoren ist schon lange klar, dass China bei den Preisen von Metallen, Agrargütern und Energieressourcen grundsätzlich eine, wenn nicht sogar die maßgebliche Preisdeterminante geworden ist. Kauft China, steigen die Preise – bleiben die Chinesen dem Markt fern, zum Beispiel wenn die eigenen Lager ausreichend gefüllt sind, kommen die Preise der Rohstoffe wieder zurück.

Robert W. Fogel, Nobelpreisträger für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Professor an der Universität von Chicago, wartet hierzu mit einer Studie auf, die den protzigen Titel trägt: „"$123,000,000,000,000: Warum Chinas Volkswirtschaft bis 2040 auf $123 Billionen angewachsen sein wird.“ Seine These: Chinas Wirtschaftsleistung wird bis dahin auf die dreifache Größe des US-BIPs angewachsen sein. Fogel zieht daraus zahlreiche Schlüsse. Das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen Chinas wird dann bei 85,000 Dollar liegen, was mehr als das doppelte dessen ist, was für die Europäische Union für das Jahr 2040 vorhergesagt wird. Bis dahin wird es dem durchschnittlichen Chinesen doppelt so gut gehen wie einem Europäer – und dieser Wohlstand wurde in nur vierzig Jahren erreicht. Im Jahr 2000 war China noch ein relativ armes Land und erhält heute noch Unterstützungszahlungen aus Deutschland, die normalerweise nur Entwicklungsländern zugedacht werden.

Der Anteil des chinesischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2040 am weltweiten BIP wird auf 40% gestiegen sein, was die USA mit 14% und die europäische Union mit 5% weit abgeschlagen hinter sich lassen wird. Noch vernichtender wird die Prognose, wenn man Fogels Prognosen für die USA und die westlichen Volkswirtschaften zu jenen für China in Relation setzt. In nur einer Generation in der Zukunft wird China zur neuen Weltmacht aufgestiegen sein, schreibt Fogel, während die Generationen in den USA damit beschäftigt sein werden, die Schuldenberge abzutragen, die seit dem Jahr 2000 angehäuft wurden.

Fogel identifiziert sechs Gründe, warum die USA das Rennen gegen China verlieren werden:

•Die „lange unterdrückte Liebe der Chinesen zum Konsum“ sei entfesselt worden. „In vielerlei Hinsicht ist China heute das kapitalistischste Land der Erde.“ In den großen Städten Chinas liegt das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen auf einem Niveau, das die Weltbank als „gehobenen Mittelstand“ klassifizieren würde, wobei die Affinität, mehr Kleidung, Elektronikgeräte, Fast Food und Autos zu kaufen, klar erkennbar ist. Die neue Regierung hat sich dem Ziel, den Binnenkonsum anzukurbeln, verschrieben und heute regt eine Vielzahl von Maßnahmen die Konsumlust der Chinesen an.
•Die meisten erfolgreichsten und tief greifenden Wirtschaftsreformen hatten ihren Ursprung auf lokaler oder regionaler Ebene. Entgegen der Wahrnehmung des Westens, dass China ausschließlich zentral regiert wird, ist das eine interessante Erkenntnis. Fogel fügt hinzu, dass die Debatten und Kritik innerhalb der KP in China heftiger seien, als wir das im Westen für möglich halten.
•China investiere massiv in Ausbildung. Auch in China habe man erkannt, dass „ausgebildete Arbeiter die produktiveren sind.“ Arbeiter mit einem Universitätsabschluss sind dreimal und jene mit einem Oberschulabschluss sind 1,8 Mal produktiver als ein Arbeiter, der nur die neunte Klasse besucht hat. In den kommenden dreißig Jahren, so schätzt Fogel, wird China die Zahl der Einschreibungen auf Oberschulen um 100% und jene auf Universitäten um 50% steigern können. Dies allein wird laut Fogel die jährliche Rate des chinesischen Wirtschaftswachstums um sechs Prozentpunkte steigern können. Amerika, im Gegensatz, verschwende Milliarden von Dollar für Kriege, die Anhäufung von Schulden und die Kürzung von Bildung.
•Auch die ländlichen Regionen werden in den kommenden dreißig Jahren vom Aufschwung profitieren. 700 Millionen Menschen, die Hälfte der Gesamtbevölkerung Chinas, werde in dieser Zeit eine steigende Produktivität erfahren. Schon heute ist das chinesische Land für ein Drittel der chinesischen Wirtschaftsleistung verantwortlich.
•Ähnlich optimistisch geht Fogel auch bei dem fünften Grund vor: Die chinesische Regierung unterschätze, nicht überschätze das chinesische Wirtschaftswachstum. Die ausgewiesenen Wirtschaftsdaten seien nicht über-, sondern untertrieben. Sie würden die Fortschritte in Sachen Bildung und Dienstleistungsgewerbe nicht eskomptieren. Dieses Problem gebe es weltweit, so Fogel, doch in der schnell wachsenden chinesischen Wirtschaft seien sie besonders groß.
•„Für den Westen ist die Tatsache, dass das Zentrum der Wirtschaftsmacht um Asien zentriert ist, unvorstellbar. Aber das wäre nicht das erste Mal. China war die größte Volkswirtschaft der Erde in 18 der vergangenen 20 Jahrhunderte. Während Europa im Mittelalter und religiösen Kriegen verheddert war, kultivierte China die höchsten Lebensstandards der Erde. Heute ist der Aufstieg Chinas – aus chinesischer Sichtweise – alleinig eine Rückkehr zum Status Quo.“