Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 16)
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ISIN: CA00829Q1019 · WKN: A0MZJC · Symbol: AFZ
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nach sovielen jahren warten kommt endlich wieder etwas bewegung in kenia rein. wenig überraschend fädelt der tullow inder den deal mit indien ein.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/…
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/…
*Q2u.Q3 gehedgten $78
* Für Nigeria oil
* Für Nigeria oil
Venus kann ab jetzt eigentlich nur noch enttäuschen...zumindest Joe Small. Die Geoexperten haben das ggf schon eingepreist. Wenn durch appraisal wells das Ölfeld abgecheckt wird, kann viel passieren..."nicht förderbar"..."oops, sind doch nur 3 Mrd. bbl"...usw.. Die Schlagzeile "sind 50Mrd. bbl" wird wohl nicht so wahrscheinlich sein.
Dann doch lieber das naheliegende...weg von den Q-2 gehedgten $78....und endlich Spotpreise o. höher gehedged. Für Nigeria wurde in Q2 teilweise 13$ über Brent gezahlt. Keine Ahnung, wie sich das zu den Hedges verhält, bzw. wer sich das in die Tasche steckt...
Dann doch lieber das naheliegende...weg von den Q-2 gehedgten $78....und endlich Spotpreise o. höher gehedged. Für Nigeria wurde in Q2 teilweise 13$ über Brent gezahlt. Keine Ahnung, wie sich das zu den Hedges verhält, bzw. wer sich das in die Tasche steckt...
Impact benötigt jetzt das geld für die Venus appraisal bohrungen
https://impactoilandgas.com/open-offer-to-raise-up-to-us60-m…
Die 20 mio kann aoi locker aus der portokassa bezahlen ( und falls einer der impact share holder klamm ist könnte aoi ebenfalls locker einspringen)
https://impactoilandgas.com/open-offer-to-raise-up-to-us60-m…
Die 20 mio kann aoi locker aus der portokassa bezahlen ( und falls einer der impact share holder klamm ist könnte aoi ebenfalls locker einspringen)
Trading Spotlight
Der Großaktionär zahlt keine Steuern auf Dividenden und kann/will seinen Anteil nicht verkaufen...ganz simpel.
Zur Bewertung: Der Markt zahlt ganz grob derzeit für 30.000 bpd 1 Milliarde market cap (bereinigt um Schulden), Aufpreise für Größe und country risk. Aoi ist da einigermaßen inline. Die Beteiligungen werden mit null bewertet und bislang haben sie Aoi auch nur Geld gekostet, insofern doch generös. Klarer Fall von "show me"...
Zur Bewertung: Der Markt zahlt ganz grob derzeit für 30.000 bpd 1 Milliarde market cap (bereinigt um Schulden), Aufpreise für Größe und country risk. Aoi ist da einigermaßen inline. Die Beteiligungen werden mit null bewertet und bislang haben sie Aoi auch nur Geld gekostet, insofern doch generös. Klarer Fall von "show me"...
6 July 2022
Toronto, Canada
An Open Letter to the Board of Directors
Africa Oil Corporation
TSX: AOI
Attn: John H. Craig, Keith C. Hill, Andrew D. Bartlett, Ian Gibbs, Gary S. Guidry, Erin Johnston, Kimberly Wood
Dear Sirs and Mesdames,
From our previous correspondence you know me as a shareholder of Africa Oil Corporation (“Africa Oil”, “the Company”, “the Corporation”, or “the Firm”). I wish now to address matters of operations and capital allocation.
Financial Statements and Hedges
Following our prior correspondence on the matter, I am pleased to see improvements to disclosure in the Corporation's Audited Annual Financial Statements and MD&A. I am also pleased to see that in its Q1 2022 Financial Statements and MD&A the Company reported no further forward sales contracts in its Prime Oil & Gas Coöperatief U.A. (“Prime”) joint venture. In view of the persistently large negative calendar spread of the Brent futures curve and the Company's low indebtedness at 0.4x Net Debt/EBITDA as of 31 March 2022, forward sales are both costly and unnecessary. Africa Oil exerts significant influence over Prime, by appointing three of its six board members. It should use this influence to ensure Prime discontinues hedging activities and opts for value-maximising spot exposure, especially while the futures market remains in steep backwardation.
Uses of Cash: M&A or Buybacks
At the recent Namibia Energy Symposium, the Company's president, Keith Hill, presented a slide to show that the Proved & Probable Net Present Value at a 10% discount rate (“2P NPV10”) of Prime, net to Africa Oil, is $1.84 billion at $80 oil. Spot Brent currently trades for over $100/barrel. He also stated that the Company would not be willing to sell its interest, through Impact Oil & Gas Ltd, in Blocks 2913B and 2912 Namibia (“Venus”) for less than $500 million, and estimated a risked value for Project Oil Kenya (“Kenya”) at $290 million. These asset values amount to USD 2.63 billion. Africa Oil's market cap is $740 million, and, as of June, including partially-consolidated Prime, has roughly nil net debt. Given the above conservative oil price assumption, and the Corporation's other assets, including its interest through Africa Energy in Block 11B/12B South Africa, and its many other promising exploration properties held directly or indirectly, such as Block 2B, Block 3B/4B, and exploration licences in Guyana, it is reasonable to estimate that the Firm is valued by the market at one quarter of net asset value, or perhaps even less.
Consequently, the imputed return of the Company's common stock is 40%. This is effectively the hurdle rate for investment. Share repurchases are more accretive to shareholder value than any potential acquisition which does not generate a 40% IRR. Moreover, because repurchases buy out the shareholders with the highest cost of equity, they lower the Firm's marginal cost of equity, and thereby revalue its shares to a higher and more rational valuation. Hence, given the choice between M&A at a 40% IRR, and buybacks, the latter are preferred.
Put another way, at the current Brent spot price of $100/bbl, pro-forma the hedge roll-off in Q4 2022, I estimate that Prime generates, net to Africa Oil, more than $300 million in annual free cash flow (“FCF”). Moreover, pro-forma licence renewals for OML 127 and OML 130, whether in advance or at expiry in 2024-5, under Nigeria's recently passed Petroleum Investment Act, Prime will generate more than $400 million FCF at a presumed steady state of production. Prime has a seven year reserve life index, having enjoyed reserve replacement ratios of 114% in 2020 and 102% in 2021. Even allowing for modest production declines and lower oil prices, the profitability of Prime is extraordinary in view of parent Africa Oil's partially consolidated enterprise value of $740 million. In order for an acquisition to be as accretive as share repurchases, such a transaction would require a payback of less than 2 years.
I agree broadly with management's strategy to finance, to a limited extent, the derisking of its exploration assets; for example, to fund infill drilling of lease Blocks 2913B & 2912 Namibia and possibly Block 11B/12B South Africa, and to fund maiden drilling at Block 2B and Block 3B/4B. However, management's M&A hunt focused on proved, developed, producing offshore assets with a risk profile similar to that of its Nigerian oilfields has not yet borne fruit, and in the current oil price environment, I doubt any such target will be available for purchase at a price anywhere nearly as attractive as the Company's own stock.
I therefore implore the Board to authorise a Normal Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) immediately, and to supplement it with Substantial Issuer Bids (“SIBs”) as soon as the NCIB is exhausted. Following the inevitable per-share value enhancement and rerating to a more befitting market appraisal, the Corporation's appreciated currency may in future afford it the opportunity to make an accretive acquisition of a target available at a discount to the Firm's own valuation.
Diversification
Given that Africa Oil has a minimum of three material assets, i.e., Prime, Venus, and Kenya, or four including Block 11B/12B, in four different jurisdictions, it has no need of further diversification. Its most valuable asset, Prime, has minority interest in three elephant fields with good reservoir quality, producing steadily for many years under the stewardship of competent operators Chevron Corporation (OML 127) and TotalEnergies SE (OML 130). Prime is a cash cow, with industry-leading cash breakeven below $20/bbl. Africa Oil is sufficiently diversified for an E&P of its size. Shareholders may diversify at the portfolio level, and do not need the Corporation to pay market prices to accumulate more assets, when its own stock is so cheap, and likely to remain so even with a larger asset base resulting from any potential acquisition.
Normal Course Issuer Bid and Substantial Issuer Bid
The Normal Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) is subject to a repurchase limit of 10% of shares outstanding per annum, and 25% of daily average volume, with exemptions for block trades. These limits can be exceeded by enacting a Substantial Issuer Bid (“SIB”). Thanks to the SIB, there are effectively no limitations on stock buybacks. The NCIB also has a provision for Automatic Share Purchase Plans (“ASPPs”). An ASPP allows an issuer, prior to blackout periods, to designate a broker to repurchase shares formulaically, without direction of the Company, thus allowing buybacks to proceed continuously on every trading day of the year.
Taxes
Depending upon the country of residence of the shareholder, dividends are taxed at a rate of between 25% and 40%. Buybacks, on the other hand, give each shareholder the option of:
passively concentrating his/her interest in the Corporation through issuer repurchases, thereby deferring tax, or
selling some shares, in amounts and at times under his/her control for tax planning convenience, and thus harvest a “synthetic dividend”, whose capital gains would still be taxed at a lower rate than would dividends.
In view of the latter option, a flexible and highly tax-efficient method of shareholder capital return, dividends create a material and unnecessary leakage in shareholder value. Ideally the board ought to eliminate the dividend and instead buy back stock. At very least, it should devote all incremental shareholder returns to repurchases.
Shareholder Alignment
The Company's proxy explains that management is no longer compensated with stock options, but with performance share units (“PSUs”), and the key performance indicators (“KPIs”) for these PSUs make no reference to per-share metrics. The only KPI which matters to shareholders is the increase in per-share value. I therefore suggest that the Board and its Compensation Committee review the executive compensation plan and bring it into better alignment with the interest of shareholders.
In Summary
Africa Oil has a diverse array of valuable high-quality oil and gas assets, a fortress balance sheet, and an absurdly low valuation. I urge the Board of Directors to take immediate action to maximise shareholder value by implementing an aggressive buyback programme. I also ask the Board to consider seriously the tax implications of dividends for shareholders, and recognise that buybacks are superior to dividends in every respect.
I have conversed extensively with many other shareholders. A majority share my views about both optimal hedging strategy and capital allocation. There is a growing consensus that the best investment for Africa Oil is in Africa Oil.
Sincerely,
Talmage Adams
Sowie:
https://leadedlode.substack.com/p/africa-oil-corporationacti…
Toronto, Canada
An Open Letter to the Board of Directors
Africa Oil Corporation
TSX: AOI
Attn: John H. Craig, Keith C. Hill, Andrew D. Bartlett, Ian Gibbs, Gary S. Guidry, Erin Johnston, Kimberly Wood
Dear Sirs and Mesdames,
From our previous correspondence you know me as a shareholder of Africa Oil Corporation (“Africa Oil”, “the Company”, “the Corporation”, or “the Firm”). I wish now to address matters of operations and capital allocation.
Financial Statements and Hedges
Following our prior correspondence on the matter, I am pleased to see improvements to disclosure in the Corporation's Audited Annual Financial Statements and MD&A. I am also pleased to see that in its Q1 2022 Financial Statements and MD&A the Company reported no further forward sales contracts in its Prime Oil & Gas Coöperatief U.A. (“Prime”) joint venture. In view of the persistently large negative calendar spread of the Brent futures curve and the Company's low indebtedness at 0.4x Net Debt/EBITDA as of 31 March 2022, forward sales are both costly and unnecessary. Africa Oil exerts significant influence over Prime, by appointing three of its six board members. It should use this influence to ensure Prime discontinues hedging activities and opts for value-maximising spot exposure, especially while the futures market remains in steep backwardation.
Uses of Cash: M&A or Buybacks
At the recent Namibia Energy Symposium, the Company's president, Keith Hill, presented a slide to show that the Proved & Probable Net Present Value at a 10% discount rate (“2P NPV10”) of Prime, net to Africa Oil, is $1.84 billion at $80 oil. Spot Brent currently trades for over $100/barrel. He also stated that the Company would not be willing to sell its interest, through Impact Oil & Gas Ltd, in Blocks 2913B and 2912 Namibia (“Venus”) for less than $500 million, and estimated a risked value for Project Oil Kenya (“Kenya”) at $290 million. These asset values amount to USD 2.63 billion. Africa Oil's market cap is $740 million, and, as of June, including partially-consolidated Prime, has roughly nil net debt. Given the above conservative oil price assumption, and the Corporation's other assets, including its interest through Africa Energy in Block 11B/12B South Africa, and its many other promising exploration properties held directly or indirectly, such as Block 2B, Block 3B/4B, and exploration licences in Guyana, it is reasonable to estimate that the Firm is valued by the market at one quarter of net asset value, or perhaps even less.
Consequently, the imputed return of the Company's common stock is 40%. This is effectively the hurdle rate for investment. Share repurchases are more accretive to shareholder value than any potential acquisition which does not generate a 40% IRR. Moreover, because repurchases buy out the shareholders with the highest cost of equity, they lower the Firm's marginal cost of equity, and thereby revalue its shares to a higher and more rational valuation. Hence, given the choice between M&A at a 40% IRR, and buybacks, the latter are preferred.
Put another way, at the current Brent spot price of $100/bbl, pro-forma the hedge roll-off in Q4 2022, I estimate that Prime generates, net to Africa Oil, more than $300 million in annual free cash flow (“FCF”). Moreover, pro-forma licence renewals for OML 127 and OML 130, whether in advance or at expiry in 2024-5, under Nigeria's recently passed Petroleum Investment Act, Prime will generate more than $400 million FCF at a presumed steady state of production. Prime has a seven year reserve life index, having enjoyed reserve replacement ratios of 114% in 2020 and 102% in 2021. Even allowing for modest production declines and lower oil prices, the profitability of Prime is extraordinary in view of parent Africa Oil's partially consolidated enterprise value of $740 million. In order for an acquisition to be as accretive as share repurchases, such a transaction would require a payback of less than 2 years.
I agree broadly with management's strategy to finance, to a limited extent, the derisking of its exploration assets; for example, to fund infill drilling of lease Blocks 2913B & 2912 Namibia and possibly Block 11B/12B South Africa, and to fund maiden drilling at Block 2B and Block 3B/4B. However, management's M&A hunt focused on proved, developed, producing offshore assets with a risk profile similar to that of its Nigerian oilfields has not yet borne fruit, and in the current oil price environment, I doubt any such target will be available for purchase at a price anywhere nearly as attractive as the Company's own stock.
I therefore implore the Board to authorise a Normal Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) immediately, and to supplement it with Substantial Issuer Bids (“SIBs”) as soon as the NCIB is exhausted. Following the inevitable per-share value enhancement and rerating to a more befitting market appraisal, the Corporation's appreciated currency may in future afford it the opportunity to make an accretive acquisition of a target available at a discount to the Firm's own valuation.
Diversification
Given that Africa Oil has a minimum of three material assets, i.e., Prime, Venus, and Kenya, or four including Block 11B/12B, in four different jurisdictions, it has no need of further diversification. Its most valuable asset, Prime, has minority interest in three elephant fields with good reservoir quality, producing steadily for many years under the stewardship of competent operators Chevron Corporation (OML 127) and TotalEnergies SE (OML 130). Prime is a cash cow, with industry-leading cash breakeven below $20/bbl. Africa Oil is sufficiently diversified for an E&P of its size. Shareholders may diversify at the portfolio level, and do not need the Corporation to pay market prices to accumulate more assets, when its own stock is so cheap, and likely to remain so even with a larger asset base resulting from any potential acquisition.
Normal Course Issuer Bid and Substantial Issuer Bid
The Normal Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) is subject to a repurchase limit of 10% of shares outstanding per annum, and 25% of daily average volume, with exemptions for block trades. These limits can be exceeded by enacting a Substantial Issuer Bid (“SIB”). Thanks to the SIB, there are effectively no limitations on stock buybacks. The NCIB also has a provision for Automatic Share Purchase Plans (“ASPPs”). An ASPP allows an issuer, prior to blackout periods, to designate a broker to repurchase shares formulaically, without direction of the Company, thus allowing buybacks to proceed continuously on every trading day of the year.
Taxes
Depending upon the country of residence of the shareholder, dividends are taxed at a rate of between 25% and 40%. Buybacks, on the other hand, give each shareholder the option of:
passively concentrating his/her interest in the Corporation through issuer repurchases, thereby deferring tax, or
selling some shares, in amounts and at times under his/her control for tax planning convenience, and thus harvest a “synthetic dividend”, whose capital gains would still be taxed at a lower rate than would dividends.
In view of the latter option, a flexible and highly tax-efficient method of shareholder capital return, dividends create a material and unnecessary leakage in shareholder value. Ideally the board ought to eliminate the dividend and instead buy back stock. At very least, it should devote all incremental shareholder returns to repurchases.
Shareholder Alignment
The Company's proxy explains that management is no longer compensated with stock options, but with performance share units (“PSUs”), and the key performance indicators (“KPIs”) for these PSUs make no reference to per-share metrics. The only KPI which matters to shareholders is the increase in per-share value. I therefore suggest that the Board and its Compensation Committee review the executive compensation plan and bring it into better alignment with the interest of shareholders.
In Summary
Africa Oil has a diverse array of valuable high-quality oil and gas assets, a fortress balance sheet, and an absurdly low valuation. I urge the Board of Directors to take immediate action to maximise shareholder value by implementing an aggressive buyback programme. I also ask the Board to consider seriously the tax implications of dividends for shareholders, and recognise that buybacks are superior to dividends in every respect.
I have conversed extensively with many other shareholders. A majority share my views about both optimal hedging strategy and capital allocation. There is a growing consensus that the best investment for Africa Oil is in Africa Oil.
Sincerely,
Talmage Adams
Sowie:
https://leadedlode.substack.com/p/africa-oil-corporationacti…
Nette Überraschung. Ich dachte, es bliebe bei einer Distribution, weil Prime für developments wells "spart". Kurs ist leider im Zuge der allgemeinen Skepsis bzgl. Ölwerten unter die Räder gekommen. Viel Sinn macht es nicht. Bislang hat Aoi/Prime wegen der hedges ohnehin nur $78/bbl (Q1 $68) erlöst.
VANCOUVER, BC, June 30, 2022 /CNW/ - (TSX: AOI) (Nasdaq-Stockholm: AOI) – Africa Oil Corp. ("AOI", "Africa Oil" or "the Company") is pleased to announce that it has received a dividend from Prime Oil and Gas Cooperatief UA ("Prime"). The Company has a 50% shareholding in Prime. View PDF Version
Prime has distributed a $75.0 million dividend with a net payment to Africa Oil of $37.5 million related to its shareholding. This is the third Prime dividend distributed this year with Africa Oil having received an aggregate amount of $162.5 million.
Since acquiring its 50% interest in Prime for a cash consideration of $519.5 million in January 2020, Africa Oil has received 13 dividends from Prime for a total amount of $562.5 million.
Also, the Company reports the following share capital and voting rights update in accordance with the Swedish Financial Instruments Trading Act.
As a result of the exercise of stock options under the Company's Stock Option Plan and return to treasury, the Company now has 477,280,774 common shares issued and outstanding with voting rights as at June 30, 2022.
Prime has distributed a $75.0 million dividend with a net payment to Africa Oil of $37.5 million related to its shareholding. This is the third Prime dividend distributed this year with Africa Oil having received an aggregate amount of $162.5 million.
Since acquiring its 50% interest in Prime for a cash consideration of $519.5 million in January 2020, Africa Oil has received 13 dividends from Prime for a total amount of $562.5 million.
Also, the Company reports the following share capital and voting rights update in accordance with the Swedish Financial Instruments Trading Act.
As a result of the exercise of stock options under the Company's Stock Option Plan and return to treasury, the Company now has 477,280,774 common shares issued and outstanding with voting rights as at June 30, 2022.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 71.749.181 von texas2 am 09.06.22 23:07:09
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