Africa Oil Corp. - World-Class East Africa Oil Exploration (Seite 155)
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Letzter Kurs 10.05.24 Tradegate
Werte aus der Branche Öl/Gas
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 4,8050 | +39,52 | |
| 1,2000 | +29,03 | |
| 246,02 | +21,37 | |
| 13,000 | +10,26 | |
| 4,5500 | +9,90 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 1,510 | -12,21 | |
| 0,8850 | -14,90 | |
| 0,960 | -15,04 | |
| 12,14 | -16,28 | |
| 5,9460 | -75,48 |
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http://business-reporter.co.uk/2013/10/kenya-the-next-big-hi…
Kenya: The next big hitter in African oil exportation?
8 October 2013 • By Dave Baxter
Speculative drilling in the sub-Saharan nation points to major economy boost
Kenya has moved a step closer to becoming an oil exporter after a new discovery in the north of the country.
British company Tullow Oil announced in late September that drilling work had revealed the presence of oil in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokone sandstone reservoirs. The company will now carry out further tests.
For the company, which began drilling in Kenya last year, this is the fourth consecutive discovery of oil there. Earlier this year, the firm decided there was enough oil for commercial exploitation of reserves in the country’s Turkana area.
In a statement, Angus McCoss, Tullow’s exploration director, said: “This success is further evidence of the exceptional oil potential of our East African Rift Basin acreage. We are now increasing the pace of exploration in Kenya, aiming for 12 wells over the next 12 months.”
Keith Hill, CEO at Canadian firm Africa Oil, which is working with Tullow Oil in the region, said: “We are thrilled with the 100 per cent success rate of the drilling to programme to date in northern Kenya, and with 10 additional leads and prospects in this basin, we can expect additional discoveries in the future.
“This discovery gives us further incentive to aggressively push forward plans for development studies of this world-class project, in conjunction with our partners and the government of Kenya.”
If Kenya begins shipping out oil, it would prove a huge boost for its finances. Robust exports of oil would underpin the country’s shilling currency and help it compete with other African nations offering natural resources, such as Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Over the years, many oil firms have tried their luck in the country without success. A Deloitte report from earlier this year, The Deloitte Guide To Oil And Gas In East Africa: Where Potential Lies, reads: “Kenya has no proven commercial hydrocarbon discoveries at the time of writing. BP and Shell carried out exploration work in the 1950s, with the first exploration well being drilled in 1960. Over the past 50 years, many other oil and gas companies have tried their luck onshore and offshore, including Exxon, Total, Chevron, Woodside and CNOOC.
“Of 33 wells drilled in the country prior to 2012, 16 showed signs of hydrocarbons, but none were considered commercial.
“Tullow is undertaking an exploration drilling campaign in the hope of replicating its recent Ugandan success.”
With oil exports likely to boost the country’s economy, the Kenyan government will be hoping to hear of more discoveries soon.
Kenya: The next big hitter in African oil exportation?
8 October 2013 • By Dave Baxter
Speculative drilling in the sub-Saharan nation points to major economy boost
Kenya has moved a step closer to becoming an oil exporter after a new discovery in the north of the country.
British company Tullow Oil announced in late September that drilling work had revealed the presence of oil in the Auwerwer and Upper Lokone sandstone reservoirs. The company will now carry out further tests.
For the company, which began drilling in Kenya last year, this is the fourth consecutive discovery of oil there. Earlier this year, the firm decided there was enough oil for commercial exploitation of reserves in the country’s Turkana area.
In a statement, Angus McCoss, Tullow’s exploration director, said: “This success is further evidence of the exceptional oil potential of our East African Rift Basin acreage. We are now increasing the pace of exploration in Kenya, aiming for 12 wells over the next 12 months.”
Keith Hill, CEO at Canadian firm Africa Oil, which is working with Tullow Oil in the region, said: “We are thrilled with the 100 per cent success rate of the drilling to programme to date in northern Kenya, and with 10 additional leads and prospects in this basin, we can expect additional discoveries in the future.
“This discovery gives us further incentive to aggressively push forward plans for development studies of this world-class project, in conjunction with our partners and the government of Kenya.”
If Kenya begins shipping out oil, it would prove a huge boost for its finances. Robust exports of oil would underpin the country’s shilling currency and help it compete with other African nations offering natural resources, such as Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Over the years, many oil firms have tried their luck in the country without success. A Deloitte report from earlier this year, The Deloitte Guide To Oil And Gas In East Africa: Where Potential Lies, reads: “Kenya has no proven commercial hydrocarbon discoveries at the time of writing. BP and Shell carried out exploration work in the 1950s, with the first exploration well being drilled in 1960. Over the past 50 years, many other oil and gas companies have tried their luck onshore and offshore, including Exxon, Total, Chevron, Woodside and CNOOC.
“Of 33 wells drilled in the country prior to 2012, 16 showed signs of hydrocarbons, but none were considered commercial.
“Tullow is undertaking an exploration drilling campaign in the hope of replicating its recent Ugandan success.”
With oil exports likely to boost the country’s economy, the Kenyan government will be hoping to hear of more discoveries soon.
Hi All,
da hat sich im IHub der Daniel die Mühe gemacht, das wahre Potential von AOI mit Zahlen zu untermauern und zu zeigen, wie unterbewertet AOI von Analysten wird.
Die Zahlen sind Schwedische Kronen, und er hat meiner Meinung recht, wenn nach den Appraisal wells im Lokichar Basin ca 1000 mmboe reserves angegeben werden können.
see below
gruss Source
I dare say I'm the one spent most time analyzing Africa Oil (AOI) since January this year, apart from company management. This doesn't mean that I know the company best of all but I've done the hours and numbers on the company. I thought I'd summarize my view on AOI and at the same time point out the main differences in my view and the analysts take on AOI. Analysts, feel free to copy. You'd be the first to point out what I do below. The value of the company, in my opinion , is the value of the oil that have been found today + the value of the drilling program until December 2014 + the value of the prospects / leads that have not yet been drilled until dec 2014.
TLW / AOIs recoverable resources today
TLW says they have 300mmboe in Lokichar. They have a long history of making cautious initial assessments tha later are revised up but this in Kenya is quite extreme, I'd say. Analysts are at around 500mmboe . Bernstein is the only company I've seen that takes up the idea of 300mmboe probably being much too low an estimate. However, they have a different approach than I have but the result is similar to mine. I'll show you some volumetrics exercises that show why it is probably more like 1000mmboe that has been found so far :
Lake Albert cross reference
In Lake Albert Tullow expects 1.8bln bbl recoverable resources with a total net pay for the wells been drilled at 797m, which means that every net pay meters corresponds to 2.27mmboe. In Lokichar we now have 375 - 505m net pay (based on assuming the min/max for Ekales and Etuko ) which with the analogy correspond to851-1146mmboe , corresponding 62-83SEK/share for AOI. This is assuming that the aerial extension for wells in Lokichar is similar to Lake Albert .
Ngamia pre drill estimate as cross reference
If we look at Ngamias "pre -drill P50 recoverable resources" that was 45mmboe based on 17 m net pay you will see that this assessment corresponds to each meter net pay being 2.65mmboe . In Lokichar, we now have 375-505m net pay, which with this analogy corresponds to 993- 1337mmboe, corresponding to 72-97SEK/share for AOI . This is assuming that the aerial extension for wells in Lokichar is similar to Ngamia.
It is in any case difficult to arrive at TLWs 300mmboe or analysts 500 when you start looking at the numbers, I'd say. The average of the above volumetrics estimation is on 1082mmboe corresponding 78SEK/share assuming $6/bbl reserve value.
Value / barrel
Most analysts are now at $4-5/bbl. It has fallen since last December as the shares dropped. The value of the reserves is determined by:
• Oil API (API 22-30 medium API , what AOI found so far 25-37 )
• PSC (global average 75% , AOI 65%)
• Political risk (I am not the right person to judge but Kenya is not over global oil cut , I'd say )
• The cost of taking up the oil (AOI is below global average )
• Proximity to the pipeline (decision on the pipeline is not taken yet)
Based on the above facts each can do their own analysis of what reserves in Kenya are worth. However, I would say that they at least are worth $ 7 ( global average ) when the decision on the pipeline construction is decided . $7/bbl is what AOI itself expects internally. I expect $ 6/bbl for a number of reasons but mainly based on previous transactions and industry specialist Wood Mackenzie believes that estimates $6.1/bbl is the value of reserves in Kenya. They are not analysts at brokerage firms so their estimates are not changed when AOI share price changes. Two transactions in Uganda have been made since 2010, which has similarities with the oil in Kenya. They are:
• TLW / Heritage deal - January 2010 where the deal was done at $4.53/bbl. It is the deal that analysts refer to even though there was a clause that gave Tullow priority to purchase Heritage assets which did not give an open bidding .
• TLW / Total / CNOOC deal - March 2011 where the deal was done at $5.6/bbl. No analysts refer to this deal as I've seen and I've read most of the reports on AOI. They all refer to the Heritage deal, despite the clause.
These transactions were made before a decision on the pipeline has been taken. Would these deals made when a pipeline decision is reached TLW would have received at least $ 1-2/fat more I would say. Also, the PSC in Kenya is better than Uganda. $4-5/bbl? I do not agree.
The value of the drilling program through December 2014
The big boost in AOIs share price comes the day the market will do with AOI as with other shares on any stock exchange, which is to give a value today of future yet to be realized profits / reserves. AOI will drill 30-35 wells until December 2014 according to the company itself. There has generally, but not always, been delays so I estimate 25-30 wells. There will be more appraisal wells and more focus on Lokichar which makes me think the delays won’t be as extreme as with Ngamia and Sabisa . They were both basin openers and, as such, they take much longer time than later wells in the same basin. Average drilling times to date is 121 days and 28m/day (table below). It's, as said, Sabisa and Ngamia that out a drag on historic drilling time. Looking at Lundin Petroleum’s drilling time the respective figures are 29 days and 75m/day (mix of Norway and Malaysia). Lundin companies are one of the few companies that report spud date so it’s difficult to calculate a global average for all wells. Now, I don’t estimate AOI TLW wells to go as fast as LUPEs but if you work on the assumption of 25 wells in 2014 (they will magage 5 wells during the rest of 2013, so it corresponds to 30 in total), 7 rigs and 30 day transport time between the wells you get a drilling time of 72 days. It is not entirely unreasonable, I would say. The number of wells is also very dependent on how the money they takes in. If AOI takes in more money than expected, it might mean more rigs and thus more wells.
Depth Duration m/day
Sabisa 2600 171 15
Twiga 3250 97 34
Pai 4112 153 27
Ngamia 2340 161 15
Etuko 3051 79 39
Ekales 2500 64 39
The value of the drilling program is a function of the hit rate , the value/hit and number of wells they manage to drill. Counting on the average of the wells announced at TLW/AOIs material (11 in total), the average value per success is 15.6kr/share based on auditors estimates, with my assumption of $6/bbl. What brings down the average are the South Omo wells where AOIs share is 30% and the auditors pre drill estimates are low. If they’d strike oil in South Omo, auditors would raise the estimates. Don't forget that Ngamia pre drill estimate was 17m net pay and 45mmboe, which turned out to be more than 10 times more post drill. The table below shows the value/share per well.
Bahasi 23 Block 9
Sala 29 Block 9
Ekosowan 11 South Lokichar
Amosing 12 South Lokichar
Ekunyuk 15 South Lokichar
Agete 20 South Lokichar
Ewoi 23 South Lokichar
Etom 34 South Lokichar
Tultule 1 South Omo
Kesami 1 South Omo
Shimela 2 South Omo
Kiboko N/A Block 10BA
Lingam N/A South Kerio
Tausi N/A North Lokichar
There will be many appraisal wells in the future which is not really worth that much other than for auditors. With really big oil bearing zones such as Ngamia , Etom or Etuko you usually need appraisal wells for the auditors to give you full credit. I expect every fifth well being an appraisal, which pulls down the value/success to 12.5kr/share. The matrix below shows the value/share of the drilling program given the number of wells you have time to drill and success ratio assuming 12.5kr/share per success. The mean value of the matrix is on 234kr/share.
Number of wells drilled to December 2014
HitPerc 25 30 35
50% 156 188 219
55% 172 206 241
60% 188 225 263
65% 203 244 284
70 % 219 263 306
75% 234 281 328
58% is Tullow's historical success ratio for exploration wells and Tullow won’t be operator of all wells but on the other hand the hit ratio will be higher in 2014 as there will be more appraisal wells. With appraisal wells Tullow's success ratio is 90%. Drilling times will be shorter when they will have dropped some blocks that have not proven to be oil bearing and focus only on derisked blocks, which means you do not need to transport rigs over large distances. Focusing on derisked blocks also makes for a higher success ratio compared to wild cats. Moreover you could add that Tullow’s success ratio in Uganda was over their own average. Overall, I really do not think 50% success ratio for AOIs drilling through 2014 to be an aggressive assumption.
It is here in particular where my view of AOI differs from analysts. There is no analyst assigning AOI/TLW 58% success ratio when AOI shares are at 54kr. Should the share price go up, they’d raise their estimates, that’s the way the market works.
The value of the drilling inventory at Dec 2014
They will have drilled some 40 odd wells in December 2014, resulting in about 90 undrilled prospect/leads left in the drilling inventory. The wells they have left will be less interesting than the ones drilled obviously as you start with the most interesting blocks. It’s difficult to assign a value to the drilling inventory, I’d say but I would say that half of the current value of the drilling program through December 2014 is not entirely unreasonable. Just over a hundred kr/share I’d say, but it should be said that this sub-component is more of a guess than hard numbers.
Summary
78 + 234 +100 = 412kr/share may sound daft but is the value that comes out if you look solely at the numbers. There will be dilution and government back in on those numbers and the last subcomponent 100kr is more of a guess than estimate that should be said again. The most important point with regards to the above analysis is that the greatest value lies in the drilling program until dec 2014. It is here where my view differs from the analysts. For me, I cannot understand that if you get the chance to pull 30 lottery tickets from where you know half of the tickets are winning tickets and each win is worth 12.5kr, how that opportunity could be worth zero or near zero. That market cannot assign a reasonable value to the AOI shares is a huge market failure, I’d say. I’ve been seen some over the years but this is one of the biggest, I'd say.
Finally, I’d show the below chart for those who consider the market to be efficient. It shows the value of recoverable resources and AOI share price. This then is the value ex the lottery tickets and assuming lowest net pay for Etuko and Ekales.
http://postimg.org/image/3ouciwmjv/
/Daniel
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…
da hat sich im IHub der Daniel die Mühe gemacht, das wahre Potential von AOI mit Zahlen zu untermauern und zu zeigen, wie unterbewertet AOI von Analysten wird.
Die Zahlen sind Schwedische Kronen, und er hat meiner Meinung recht, wenn nach den Appraisal wells im Lokichar Basin ca 1000 mmboe reserves angegeben werden können.
see below
gruss Source
I dare say I'm the one spent most time analyzing Africa Oil (AOI) since January this year, apart from company management. This doesn't mean that I know the company best of all but I've done the hours and numbers on the company. I thought I'd summarize my view on AOI and at the same time point out the main differences in my view and the analysts take on AOI. Analysts, feel free to copy. You'd be the first to point out what I do below. The value of the company, in my opinion , is the value of the oil that have been found today + the value of the drilling program until December 2014 + the value of the prospects / leads that have not yet been drilled until dec 2014.
TLW / AOIs recoverable resources today
TLW says they have 300mmboe in Lokichar. They have a long history of making cautious initial assessments tha later are revised up but this in Kenya is quite extreme, I'd say. Analysts are at around 500mmboe . Bernstein is the only company I've seen that takes up the idea of 300mmboe probably being much too low an estimate. However, they have a different approach than I have but the result is similar to mine. I'll show you some volumetrics exercises that show why it is probably more like 1000mmboe that has been found so far :
Lake Albert cross reference
In Lake Albert Tullow expects 1.8bln bbl recoverable resources with a total net pay for the wells been drilled at 797m, which means that every net pay meters corresponds to 2.27mmboe. In Lokichar we now have 375 - 505m net pay (based on assuming the min/max for Ekales and Etuko ) which with the analogy correspond to851-1146mmboe , corresponding 62-83SEK/share for AOI. This is assuming that the aerial extension for wells in Lokichar is similar to Lake Albert .
Ngamia pre drill estimate as cross reference
If we look at Ngamias "pre -drill P50 recoverable resources" that was 45mmboe based on 17 m net pay you will see that this assessment corresponds to each meter net pay being 2.65mmboe . In Lokichar, we now have 375-505m net pay, which with this analogy corresponds to 993- 1337mmboe, corresponding to 72-97SEK/share for AOI . This is assuming that the aerial extension for wells in Lokichar is similar to Ngamia.
It is in any case difficult to arrive at TLWs 300mmboe or analysts 500 when you start looking at the numbers, I'd say. The average of the above volumetrics estimation is on 1082mmboe corresponding 78SEK/share assuming $6/bbl reserve value.
Value / barrel
Most analysts are now at $4-5/bbl. It has fallen since last December as the shares dropped. The value of the reserves is determined by:
• Oil API (API 22-30 medium API , what AOI found so far 25-37 )
• PSC (global average 75% , AOI 65%)
• Political risk (I am not the right person to judge but Kenya is not over global oil cut , I'd say )
• The cost of taking up the oil (AOI is below global average )
• Proximity to the pipeline (decision on the pipeline is not taken yet)
Based on the above facts each can do their own analysis of what reserves in Kenya are worth. However, I would say that they at least are worth $ 7 ( global average ) when the decision on the pipeline construction is decided . $7/bbl is what AOI itself expects internally. I expect $ 6/bbl for a number of reasons but mainly based on previous transactions and industry specialist Wood Mackenzie believes that estimates $6.1/bbl is the value of reserves in Kenya. They are not analysts at brokerage firms so their estimates are not changed when AOI share price changes. Two transactions in Uganda have been made since 2010, which has similarities with the oil in Kenya. They are:
• TLW / Heritage deal - January 2010 where the deal was done at $4.53/bbl. It is the deal that analysts refer to even though there was a clause that gave Tullow priority to purchase Heritage assets which did not give an open bidding .
• TLW / Total / CNOOC deal - March 2011 where the deal was done at $5.6/bbl. No analysts refer to this deal as I've seen and I've read most of the reports on AOI. They all refer to the Heritage deal, despite the clause.
These transactions were made before a decision on the pipeline has been taken. Would these deals made when a pipeline decision is reached TLW would have received at least $ 1-2/fat more I would say. Also, the PSC in Kenya is better than Uganda. $4-5/bbl? I do not agree.
The value of the drilling program through December 2014
The big boost in AOIs share price comes the day the market will do with AOI as with other shares on any stock exchange, which is to give a value today of future yet to be realized profits / reserves. AOI will drill 30-35 wells until December 2014 according to the company itself. There has generally, but not always, been delays so I estimate 25-30 wells. There will be more appraisal wells and more focus on Lokichar which makes me think the delays won’t be as extreme as with Ngamia and Sabisa . They were both basin openers and, as such, they take much longer time than later wells in the same basin. Average drilling times to date is 121 days and 28m/day (table below). It's, as said, Sabisa and Ngamia that out a drag on historic drilling time. Looking at Lundin Petroleum’s drilling time the respective figures are 29 days and 75m/day (mix of Norway and Malaysia). Lundin companies are one of the few companies that report spud date so it’s difficult to calculate a global average for all wells. Now, I don’t estimate AOI TLW wells to go as fast as LUPEs but if you work on the assumption of 25 wells in 2014 (they will magage 5 wells during the rest of 2013, so it corresponds to 30 in total), 7 rigs and 30 day transport time between the wells you get a drilling time of 72 days. It is not entirely unreasonable, I would say. The number of wells is also very dependent on how the money they takes in. If AOI takes in more money than expected, it might mean more rigs and thus more wells.
Depth Duration m/day
Sabisa 2600 171 15
Twiga 3250 97 34
Pai 4112 153 27
Ngamia 2340 161 15
Etuko 3051 79 39
Ekales 2500 64 39
The value of the drilling program is a function of the hit rate , the value/hit and number of wells they manage to drill. Counting on the average of the wells announced at TLW/AOIs material (11 in total), the average value per success is 15.6kr/share based on auditors estimates, with my assumption of $6/bbl. What brings down the average are the South Omo wells where AOIs share is 30% and the auditors pre drill estimates are low. If they’d strike oil in South Omo, auditors would raise the estimates. Don't forget that Ngamia pre drill estimate was 17m net pay and 45mmboe, which turned out to be more than 10 times more post drill. The table below shows the value/share per well.
Bahasi 23 Block 9
Sala 29 Block 9
Ekosowan 11 South Lokichar
Amosing 12 South Lokichar
Ekunyuk 15 South Lokichar
Agete 20 South Lokichar
Ewoi 23 South Lokichar
Etom 34 South Lokichar
Tultule 1 South Omo
Kesami 1 South Omo
Shimela 2 South Omo
Kiboko N/A Block 10BA
Lingam N/A South Kerio
Tausi N/A North Lokichar
There will be many appraisal wells in the future which is not really worth that much other than for auditors. With really big oil bearing zones such as Ngamia , Etom or Etuko you usually need appraisal wells for the auditors to give you full credit. I expect every fifth well being an appraisal, which pulls down the value/success to 12.5kr/share. The matrix below shows the value/share of the drilling program given the number of wells you have time to drill and success ratio assuming 12.5kr/share per success. The mean value of the matrix is on 234kr/share.
Number of wells drilled to December 2014
HitPerc 25 30 35
50% 156 188 219
55% 172 206 241
60% 188 225 263
65% 203 244 284
70 % 219 263 306
75% 234 281 328
58% is Tullow's historical success ratio for exploration wells and Tullow won’t be operator of all wells but on the other hand the hit ratio will be higher in 2014 as there will be more appraisal wells. With appraisal wells Tullow's success ratio is 90%. Drilling times will be shorter when they will have dropped some blocks that have not proven to be oil bearing and focus only on derisked blocks, which means you do not need to transport rigs over large distances. Focusing on derisked blocks also makes for a higher success ratio compared to wild cats. Moreover you could add that Tullow’s success ratio in Uganda was over their own average. Overall, I really do not think 50% success ratio for AOIs drilling through 2014 to be an aggressive assumption.
It is here in particular where my view of AOI differs from analysts. There is no analyst assigning AOI/TLW 58% success ratio when AOI shares are at 54kr. Should the share price go up, they’d raise their estimates, that’s the way the market works.
The value of the drilling inventory at Dec 2014
They will have drilled some 40 odd wells in December 2014, resulting in about 90 undrilled prospect/leads left in the drilling inventory. The wells they have left will be less interesting than the ones drilled obviously as you start with the most interesting blocks. It’s difficult to assign a value to the drilling inventory, I’d say but I would say that half of the current value of the drilling program through December 2014 is not entirely unreasonable. Just over a hundred kr/share I’d say, but it should be said that this sub-component is more of a guess than hard numbers.
Summary
78 + 234 +100 = 412kr/share may sound daft but is the value that comes out if you look solely at the numbers. There will be dilution and government back in on those numbers and the last subcomponent 100kr is more of a guess than estimate that should be said again. The most important point with regards to the above analysis is that the greatest value lies in the drilling program until dec 2014. It is here where my view differs from the analysts. For me, I cannot understand that if you get the chance to pull 30 lottery tickets from where you know half of the tickets are winning tickets and each win is worth 12.5kr, how that opportunity could be worth zero or near zero. That market cannot assign a reasonable value to the AOI shares is a huge market failure, I’d say. I’ve been seen some over the years but this is one of the biggest, I'd say.
Finally, I’d show the below chart for those who consider the market to be efficient. It shows the value of recoverable resources and AOI share price. This then is the value ex the lottery tickets and assuming lowest net pay for Etuko and Ekales.
http://postimg.org/image/3ouciwmjv/
/Daniel
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_i…
Short-Bestand um ca. 300k reduziert. Da haben wohl einige zu spät ans Deckeln gedacht. Mein Mitleid hält sich in Grenzen.
Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
232,376 30/Sep/2013
529,488 15/Sep/2013
527,147 31/Aug/2013
http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…
Short Summary
Short Volume As Of
232,376 30/Sep/2013
529,488 15/Sep/2013
527,147 31/Aug/2013
http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpControll…
Da hat doch endlich mal einer verstanden worum es geht 
-----------------------
Africa Oil: kings of East Africa
6 October 2013
Working at the forefront of Africa’s emerging oil industry
To succeed in Africa, it helps to have a pedigree of success and know the terrain. If you’re part of a multibillion dollar group of companies that has been in global resource investment for more than 70 years, you can be sure that success is part of your DNA. Africa Oil, the East Africa focused younger member of the Lundin Group, is rapidly growing to be the most watched part of the group.
Operating in Ethiopia, Kenya and Puntland, with multibillion barrels oil field potentials on trend, Africa Oil, with Tullow as its JV partner, has opened up the eyes of the energy world to Kenya.
Its first well, Ngamia-1, on Block 10BB, Kenya, drilled in 2012 by Tullow was a clear success, with now more than 200 metres of net oil pay, and generated headlines across the world. Its second well, the Twiga South-1 exploration well, located in Block 13T, onshore Kenya, encountered more than 70 metres of net oil pay in tertiary sandstone reservoirs. The follow up to Twiga was a discovery on the Etuko prospect in the Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB in Kenya, with net pay of 40 metres and excellent reservoir qualities. Not content with that, their most recent drill in September 2013 was also successful. The Ekales well JV with Tullow discovered oil in Block 13T in Kenya with a potential pay zone of 60 to 100 metres representing the fourth consecutive significant oil find in this basin. Four major drills have resulted in four significant finds that will change the economics of East Africa with risked net best estimates of more than 1.2billion barrels of oil in the Lockichar sub-basin alone.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion on the TSX, and a strong team behind the company, investors are hoping Africa Oil will replicate the success of Tanganyika Oil, which was taken over by Sinopec in a multi-billion transaction. Current Africa Oil management including CEO Keith Hill and CFO Ian Gibbs were instrumental in that success, and in Africa Oil being the number one firm on the TSX last year. If acreage is royalty, with 250,000 km2 of gross exploration, several successes under its belt, and another 20 wells to drill in the next year, Africa Oil truly is a King.
http://business-reporter.co.uk/2013/10/africa-oil-kings-of-e…
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-----------------------
Africa Oil: kings of East Africa
6 October 2013
Working at the forefront of Africa’s emerging oil industry
To succeed in Africa, it helps to have a pedigree of success and know the terrain. If you’re part of a multibillion dollar group of companies that has been in global resource investment for more than 70 years, you can be sure that success is part of your DNA. Africa Oil, the East Africa focused younger member of the Lundin Group, is rapidly growing to be the most watched part of the group.
Operating in Ethiopia, Kenya and Puntland, with multibillion barrels oil field potentials on trend, Africa Oil, with Tullow as its JV partner, has opened up the eyes of the energy world to Kenya.
Its first well, Ngamia-1, on Block 10BB, Kenya, drilled in 2012 by Tullow was a clear success, with now more than 200 metres of net oil pay, and generated headlines across the world. Its second well, the Twiga South-1 exploration well, located in Block 13T, onshore Kenya, encountered more than 70 metres of net oil pay in tertiary sandstone reservoirs. The follow up to Twiga was a discovery on the Etuko prospect in the Lokichar Basin in Block 10BB in Kenya, with net pay of 40 metres and excellent reservoir qualities. Not content with that, their most recent drill in September 2013 was also successful. The Ekales well JV with Tullow discovered oil in Block 13T in Kenya with a potential pay zone of 60 to 100 metres representing the fourth consecutive significant oil find in this basin. Four major drills have resulted in four significant finds that will change the economics of East Africa with risked net best estimates of more than 1.2billion barrels of oil in the Lockichar sub-basin alone.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion on the TSX, and a strong team behind the company, investors are hoping Africa Oil will replicate the success of Tanganyika Oil, which was taken over by Sinopec in a multi-billion transaction. Current Africa Oil management including CEO Keith Hill and CFO Ian Gibbs were instrumental in that success, and in Africa Oil being the number one firm on the TSX last year. If acreage is royalty, with 250,000 km2 of gross exploration, several successes under its belt, and another 20 wells to drill in the next year, Africa Oil truly is a King.
http://business-reporter.co.uk/2013/10/africa-oil-kings-of-e…
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Hallo Africa Oil Freunde,
nach langer Pause,hier eine kleine Info aus dem amerikanischen Thread zu neuen Kurszielen unserer Perle.
Normura C$80.00 to C$82.00 ( I think this is a typo and it should read Swed. K (SEK) )
RBC Capital C$12.00 to C$15.00
TD Securities C$11.50 to C$12.00
The article mentions a "Consensus" target price of C$23.33
http://www.directorstalk.com/africa-oil-price-target-raised-…
nach langer Pause,hier eine kleine Info aus dem amerikanischen Thread zu neuen Kurszielen unserer Perle.
Normura C$80.00 to C$82.00 ( I think this is a typo and it should read Swed. K (SEK) )
RBC Capital C$12.00 to C$15.00
TD Securities C$11.50 to C$12.00
The article mentions a "Consensus" target price of C$23.33
http://www.directorstalk.com/africa-oil-price-target-raised-…
Trading Spotlight
we've got it! die 9!! na dann sollten wir auch darüber schliessen!
hier geht's demnächst up, heute die 9!! nur was ist mit tlw, sollte da eine grosse ke anstehen!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.563.001 von niki550525 am 03.10.13 16:52:03Der Kurs sieht heute schon mal wieder sehr gut aus. Momentan 20:42 Uhr bei 8,95 C$
- SAR wurde getroffen und ist somit wieder "grün"
- RSI und Slow STO weiter im Aufwind
- MACD ist bereits seit Anfang September im grünen Bereich.
Man sieht, wenn die Umsätze hoch sind und die stehen derzeit bei 543 K haben die Shortis keine Möglichkeit den Kurs zu drücken.
Zusem entfernt sich der Kurs immer weiter von der MA 50 + 200 und untermauert somit die stärke seines Trendes.
Seit meiner Empfehlung vom Anfang September ist der Kurs bereits um 1,95 C$ gestiegen was immerhin ca > 25% ausmacht. Immer noch verhältnismäßig wenig zu den Ergebnissen, die bekannt gegeben wurden.
Wenn man bedenkt, das Im Mai 2012 ein Top mit 11,35 C$ erreicht wurde, obwohl das Ngamia- Well noch nicht mal erfolgreich getestet war,müsste mE. der Kurs nach den heutigen Ergebnissen mindestens bei 14 C$ stehen.
Leider läßt der Rohstoffbum noch auf sich warten. Ich bin mir aber ganz sicher, er wird kommen und zwar dann wenn es keiner erwartet.
Selbst der heutige Kurs ist verschwindend gering wenn man bedenkt, das SEB Equipment Resarch bei einer Erfolgsquote von 100% im Lokichar Basin von 44 C$ ausgeht. Das ist wohl gemerkt nur 1 Basin von Insgesamt 12 Basins. Das muß man sich mal auf der Zunge zergehen lassen.
Das nicht alles zu 100% Treffergebnisse sein können ist auch klar, jedoch hat Tullow und AOI bewiesen, dass sie darin ein gutes Hänchen haben.
Na da kann man dann doch beruhigt ins WE gehen
Niki
- SAR wurde getroffen und ist somit wieder "grün"
- RSI und Slow STO weiter im Aufwind
- MACD ist bereits seit Anfang September im grünen Bereich.
Man sieht, wenn die Umsätze hoch sind und die stehen derzeit bei 543 K haben die Shortis keine Möglichkeit den Kurs zu drücken.
Zusem entfernt sich der Kurs immer weiter von der MA 50 + 200 und untermauert somit die stärke seines Trendes.
Seit meiner Empfehlung vom Anfang September ist der Kurs bereits um 1,95 C$ gestiegen was immerhin ca > 25% ausmacht. Immer noch verhältnismäßig wenig zu den Ergebnissen, die bekannt gegeben wurden.
Wenn man bedenkt, das Im Mai 2012 ein Top mit 11,35 C$ erreicht wurde, obwohl das Ngamia- Well noch nicht mal erfolgreich getestet war,müsste mE. der Kurs nach den heutigen Ergebnissen mindestens bei 14 C$ stehen.
Leider läßt der Rohstoffbum noch auf sich warten. Ich bin mir aber ganz sicher, er wird kommen und zwar dann wenn es keiner erwartet.
Selbst der heutige Kurs ist verschwindend gering wenn man bedenkt, das SEB Equipment Resarch bei einer Erfolgsquote von 100% im Lokichar Basin von 44 C$ ausgeht. Das ist wohl gemerkt nur 1 Basin von Insgesamt 12 Basins. Das muß man sich mal auf der Zunge zergehen lassen.
Das nicht alles zu 100% Treffergebnisse sein können ist auch klar, jedoch hat Tullow und AOI bewiesen, dass sie darin ein gutes Hänchen haben.
Na da kann man dann doch beruhigt ins WE gehen
Niki
Komme leider erst jetzt wieder dazu etwas zur Charttechnik zu schreiben:
Candlestick hat gestern ein Bullish stop loss erzeugt, weil der Kurs das Stop loss niveau von 8,54 C$ überschritten hat.
Somit hatten wir vorher ein klassisches Fehlsignal das durch einige wenige Marktteilnehmer beeinflusst wurde. Hat man auch an dem geringen Umsatz sehen können.
Der Slow STO hat dann auch ins Positive gedreht.
Leider wurde der SAR noch nicht getroffen, der derzeit noch bei 8,88 C$ steht.
Der Aufwärtstrend ist nach wie vor in Takt.
Wie sich der Kurs weiterhin verhält, hängt sehr viel am Umsatzverhalten der Marktteilnehmer ab.Leider sind die Umsätze nicht konstant hoch, so dass an Tagen mit geringen Umsätzen der Kurs sehr leicht nach unten manipuliert werden kann.
Dann noch ein schönes verlängertes Wochenende.
Niki
Candlestick hat gestern ein Bullish stop loss erzeugt, weil der Kurs das Stop loss niveau von 8,54 C$ überschritten hat.
Somit hatten wir vorher ein klassisches Fehlsignal das durch einige wenige Marktteilnehmer beeinflusst wurde. Hat man auch an dem geringen Umsatz sehen können.
Der Slow STO hat dann auch ins Positive gedreht.
Leider wurde der SAR noch nicht getroffen, der derzeit noch bei 8,88 C$ steht.
Der Aufwärtstrend ist nach wie vor in Takt.
Wie sich der Kurs weiterhin verhält, hängt sehr viel am Umsatzverhalten der Marktteilnehmer ab.Leider sind die Umsätze nicht konstant hoch, so dass an Tagen mit geringen Umsätzen der Kurs sehr leicht nach unten manipuliert werden kann.
Dann noch ein schönes verlängertes Wochenende.
Niki
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.555.015 von gimo211 am 02.10.13 14:37:20Hi gimo211,
ja, die Präsentation ist sehr nahe an der alten. Vielleicht ist das "Update" dem Site-Visit geschuldet oder einfach um das Aktivitätslevel hoch zu halten.
Wobei mir ein Satz auf S. 28 schon recht gut gefällt: 20 (!) Bohrungen in 2014
Und: 5 "Basin-Opening-Wells" in den kommenden 6 Monaten
.
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Unten noch ein Beitrag von thereporterethiopia.com - es bleibt zu hoffen, dass der Optimismus der "Source" berechtigt ist...
-----------------------------------------
28 September 2013
Written by Kaleyesus Bekele
Tullow starts drilling second exploration well in South Omo
- Experts anticipate discovery of oil
The British oil company, Tullow Oil Ethiopia, last Tuesday started drilling the second exploration well in South Omo.
The Polish drilling company, OGEC, started the drilling work in Dasenech Wereda, Tultule locality. The well is named after the locality. Tullow targets to drill to a maximum of 2500 meters. The drilling work could take up to three months.
Tullow recently drilled the first exploration well dubbed Sabisa1 in South Omo near Omorate town which demonstrated the presence of oil and gas. The company announced that the Sabisa-1 well confirmed a viable hydrocarbon system in the region. The company said the well encountered reservoir quality sands, oil shows and heavy gas shows indicating an oil-prone source rock and a thick shale section which should provide good seals for the numerous fault-bounded traps identified in the basin.
Based on the encouraging result of Sabisa-1 a decision was made to drill the nearby Tultule, 4 kilometers to the east. Based on the encouraging result of Sabisa1 a decision was made to drill the nearby Tultule, 4 kilometers to the east.
Sources close to the project are optimistic about the result of the Tultle well. “The well has a very good trap; they will find oil,” sources said.
Tullow has success stories in African countries. It discovered oil in Ghana, Uganda and recently in Kenya. Following Tullow’s exploration success to date in Uganda’s Lake Albert Rift Basin, the company has extended its exploration acreage into the prospective East African Rift Basins of Kenya and Ethiopia. The company discovered oil in the Turkana basin of Kenya. Ngamia and Twiga discoveries in Kenya are only 300 km south of Sabisa well.
Tullow is known for going after new frontiers. International petroleum companies did not consider the East African rift system as a promising area for oil exploration work. Tullow took a big risk and invested on major exploration projects in Uganda and Kenya that turned out to be fruitful. After Tullow’s success international oil firms are vying for concessions in the region. Chinese companies are too investing in oil fields in the region.
http://www.thereporterethiopia.com/index.php/news-headlines/…
ja, die Präsentation ist sehr nahe an der alten. Vielleicht ist das "Update" dem Site-Visit geschuldet oder einfach um das Aktivitätslevel hoch zu halten.
Wobei mir ein Satz auf S. 28 schon recht gut gefällt: 20 (!) Bohrungen in 2014
Und: 5 "Basin-Opening-Wells" in den kommenden 6 Monaten
.----
Unten noch ein Beitrag von thereporterethiopia.com - es bleibt zu hoffen, dass der Optimismus der "Source" berechtigt ist...
-----------------------------------------
28 September 2013
Written by Kaleyesus Bekele
Tullow starts drilling second exploration well in South Omo
- Experts anticipate discovery of oil
The British oil company, Tullow Oil Ethiopia, last Tuesday started drilling the second exploration well in South Omo.
The Polish drilling company, OGEC, started the drilling work in Dasenech Wereda, Tultule locality. The well is named after the locality. Tullow targets to drill to a maximum of 2500 meters. The drilling work could take up to three months.
Tullow recently drilled the first exploration well dubbed Sabisa1 in South Omo near Omorate town which demonstrated the presence of oil and gas. The company announced that the Sabisa-1 well confirmed a viable hydrocarbon system in the region. The company said the well encountered reservoir quality sands, oil shows and heavy gas shows indicating an oil-prone source rock and a thick shale section which should provide good seals for the numerous fault-bounded traps identified in the basin.
Based on the encouraging result of Sabisa-1 a decision was made to drill the nearby Tultule, 4 kilometers to the east. Based on the encouraging result of Sabisa1 a decision was made to drill the nearby Tultule, 4 kilometers to the east.
Sources close to the project are optimistic about the result of the Tultle well. “The well has a very good trap; they will find oil,” sources said.
Tullow has success stories in African countries. It discovered oil in Ghana, Uganda and recently in Kenya. Following Tullow’s exploration success to date in Uganda’s Lake Albert Rift Basin, the company has extended its exploration acreage into the prospective East African Rift Basins of Kenya and Ethiopia. The company discovered oil in the Turkana basin of Kenya. Ngamia and Twiga discoveries in Kenya are only 300 km south of Sabisa well.
Tullow is known for going after new frontiers. International petroleum companies did not consider the East African rift system as a promising area for oil exploration work. Tullow took a big risk and invested on major exploration projects in Uganda and Kenya that turned out to be fruitful. After Tullow’s success international oil firms are vying for concessions in the region. Chinese companies are too investing in oil fields in the region.
http://www.thereporterethiopia.com/index.php/news-headlines/…
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