Ukraine/kazakhstan.....maerkte in der bodenbildung (Seite 20)

[startvestor]

Agroton hat übrigens Anfang des Jahres die Zustimmung seiner Bondholder bekommen und die Aktie ist seither stark gestiegen. Bin aber leider nicht dabei.

[al_sting]

Vielen Dank für den Report!

"Ukrainian stocks endured a dismal year of losses in 2013, with only a handful of exceptions, with the WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks losing 23% of its value. Its biggest component, grain trader Kernel (KER PW), was plundered for 43% of its value and hit its lowest price in more than four years."
Ich schaue mir gerade Kernel sowie MHP sehr interessiert an. Gibt es hier Einschätzungen und Meinungen zu dem Wert und die Gründe des Kursverfalls? Oder kennt ihr aussagekräftige Analysen (Deutsch oder Englisch) dazu?

[aitutaki2009]

Vor Beginn der orthodoxen Weihnachtsferien(!) noch ein Auszug aus dem aktuellen Broker Reseacrh von ConCap heute:

Market comment

Ukrainian equities kicked off the new year with a strong performance on Thursday, Jan. 2. The WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks improved 2.1%, extending its gains to 7.7% over four straight positive sessions. The gains were fueled by the Index’s biggest component, grain trader Kernel (KER PW), which surged 4.9%. Car battery maker WESTA (WES PW) jumped 5.0% and Industrial Milk (IMC PW) rose 3.9%. On the downside, Milkiland (MLK PW) plunged 5.0% and egg producer Ovostar (OVO PW) dropped 3.0%. In London, poultry producer MHP (MHPC LI) surged 5.6% and Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) improved 3.8%. Real estate firm DUPD (DUPD LN) slid 3.1%. The Ukrainian Exchange (UX) Index of Kyiv-traded stocks will reopen on Wednesday, Jan. 8.

Ukrainian stocks endured a dismal year of losses in 2013, with only a handful of exceptions, with the WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks losing 23% of its value. Its biggest component, grain trader Kernel (KER PW), was plundered for 43% of its value and hit its lowest price in more than four years. Its other big decliners were Coal Energy (CLE PW), which plunged 89% to its lowest price since its August 2011 IPO; farmer Agroton (AGT PW), which plummeted 81%; coal miner Sadovaya (SGR PW), which dropped 74% to its lowest price since its December 2010 IPO; and car battery producer WESTA (WES PW), which lost 46% of its value to reach its lowest price since its June 2011 IPO. Three WIG Ukraine Index stocks finished in the green for year: KDM Shipping (KDM PW) gained 25%, sugar producer Astarta (AST PW) advanced 22% and egg producer Ovostar (OVO PW) improved 12%.

The most actively traded Ukrainian stock, iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO LN), slid 24% in trading on the LSE. Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) plunged 61% and Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) dropped 28%. London stocks offered some gains too: Back of Georgia (BGEO LN) surged 134% to its highest price since its February 2012 listing, real estate firm DUPD (DUPD LN) rose 26%, poultry producer MHP (MHPC LI) gained 9% and egg producer Avangard (AVGR LI) improved 4%.

For 2013, the Ukrainian Exchange Index of Kyiv-traded stocks decreased 4%, with the losses led by Alchevsk Steel (ALMK UK -27%) and power generator Centrenergo (CEEN UK -25%). The top advancers were UniCredit’s Ukrsotsbank (USCB UK +45%), Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL UK +32%) and power generator Donbasenergo (DOEN UK +30%). Outside the Index, Ukrtelecom (UTLM UK) plummeted 31 percent.

Equities

Centrenergo gets UAH 0.8 bln modernization approved
Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved an UAH 810 mln reconstruction project for Centrenergo’s (CEEN UK) Power Unit #1 at the Zmiyiv Thermal Power Plant, according to a Dec. 25 resolution. The project includes upgrading its boiler and enhancing its power turbine (to increase its capacity from 175 MW to 215 MW), as well as installing a new purification equipment (for UAH 239 mln).

Alexander Paraschiy: The Cabinet resolution allows Centrenergo to apply for a special markup to its electricity rates to compensate partially project costs. That should allow the utility to generate about UAH 0.5 bln in additional revenue at the expense of power consumers over the next four to six years, which will allow Centrenergo to increase its annual EBITDA by about UAH 0.1 bln (UAH 0.3/share) in each of the years 2014–2019.

Banks demand USD 37 mln from WESTA
Ukraine’s leading car battery producer WESTA ISIC (WES PW) filed four current reports between Dec. 24 and 30 revealing that banks have submitted claims to demand the repayment of loans at an aggregate amount of USD 36.6 mln. The company reported it negotiated with the banks on settling the claims.

Alexander Paraschiy: The indicated inability of WESTA to repay its debt is clearly a worrying signal, though it’s worth noting that its 4Q13 debt repayment schedule was very tough. WESTA was due to repay USD 46.1 mln in loans over the quarter, or 21% of its total debt outstanding as of end-September 2013 (USD 217.1 mln).

WESTA’s total 9M13 EBITDA was just USD 10 mln. With no significant turnaround in production and profitability, the company is unlikely to be able to settle even a softer repayment schedule (of USD 35 mln) for the next nine months.

Politics

Ukraine authorities continue pressure on EuroMaidan protesters
Ukrainian traffic inspection officers have begun visiting the homes of EuroMaidan protesters who held an automobile protest on Dec. 29 at the Mezhyhiria suburban estate of President Viktor Yanukovych. The traffic officers requested documents on automobile ownership and invited the protesters for interviews, citing their possible refusal to have obeyed their command to stop during the protests. Vasyl Hatsko, the head of the Democratic Alliance political party and among the EuroMaidan’s most active leaders, reported on Jan. 2 that he’s being followed by law enforcement authorities, recording them on a video he posted. Another EuroMaidan leader, Dmytro Pylypets, reported being followed before suffering a knife attack on Dec. 24.

Ukraine’s biggest oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, confronted protesters near his Donetsk estate on Dec. 31 who voiced their condemnation of his support for the Party of Regions of Ukraine. He criticized a protest leader for spreading the falsehood that he wouldn’t address the protest because he was in London at the time. He said he was intimidating by threats of sanctions. “For me, the biggest sanction is when I won’t be able to walk in my own homeland, my Donetsk land,” he told the protesters. He avoided answering their questions before driving away.

The EuroMaidan is renewing European countries’ faith in the importance of the European Union (EU), Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in a Jan. 2 television interview. “I have the hope that this is a mirror for the western European members of the European family, which will see how important the EU project is and thanks to the Ukrainians will renew their faith in the project, which is exceptionally important for Europe, and particularly Poland.” The EU has strongly re-evaluated the attractiveness of its Association Agreement proposal and didn’t assess just how important Ukraine is for Russia, particularly the large sums it’s ready to invest, Sikorski said.

Zenon Zawada: The events surrounding New Year’s day offer a preview of what to expect this year: increased political repressions by the Yanukovych administration against the opposition, which will continue its EuroMaidan protest. Efforts will also continue to ask Western governments to impose some form of punishment against the Yanukovych administration. Akhmetov seemed particularly disturbed by the threat of Western sanctions, despite his denials, indicating the potential for their effectiveness in forcing the Ukrainian government to take responsibility for its attacks against peaceful protesters on Nov. 30, Dec. 1 and Dec. 11.


Ein Klick auf den Danke – Button tut ganz bestimmt nicht weh![/red]

[aitutaki2009]

Warum 2x dasselbe in 2 verschiedenen Threads?

Ich habe 1x geantwortet, im Stirol Thread.

übrigens kommt Kazakhtelecom grade etwas zurück - und ich denke über eine Aufstockung nach.

Off topic: Dubais Börse läuft weiter wie geschmiert und leiter weiter ohne mich. Hatte schon vor einiger Zeit im Auslandswerteforum einen Thread dazu aufgemacht, aber hier interessiert sich niemand dafür. Nachdem es hier zumindest ein paar Emerging Market Fans gibt: Würde gerne etwas mehr Infos über die Börse Dubai diskutieren. Kennt jemand ein Forum in dem mehr über solche Märkte diskutiert wird?

Ein Klick auf den Danke – Button tut ganz bestimmt nicht weh!

[frankfeuerstein]

Warum steht der Kurs der Stirol Aktie da wo er jetzt steht bei 1,60 Euro und nicht bei 20,00 oder 30,00 Euro?
Stirol verbraucht im Jahr ca. 2,7 Mrd Kubikmeter Gas. Bei einem Preisnachlass durch Gasprom von 400 auf 269,-Euro je tausend Kubikmeter macht dies rund 130 Euro, das heiß eine Kostenersparniss von 350 Millionen Euro im Jahr. Werden diese Gewinne den Aktionären vorenthalten oder was ist da los?.

[aitutaki2009]

Nachdem ich vorgestern was von ConCap einstellte, hier mal das heutige Broker Research vom Drachen das ich dankenswerterweise von einem Bekannten in die Finger bekam. Ist ewig lang, wenn man das täglich liest hat man einiges zu tun….. ich kürze mal ordentlich.

Werde mich die kommenden Wochen aber ordentlich einlesen. Die Ukraine könnte – ebenso wie Kasachstan (meine Kazakhtelecom zeigen konkrete Lebenszeichen gen Norden!) – in 2014 interessant werden. 

Und da heisst es dann: 

1. Fertig sein um vor Ort zu handeln 

2. Wissen, was man kaufen kann!

Attached please find a Dragon Capital macroeconomic research note.

November real sector indicators point to a continuing improvement in economic activity. The pace of decline in industrial production (IP) slowed to -4.7% y-o-y from -4.9% in October, outperforming our expectations (-5.5%) and the Bloomberg consensus forecast (-5.2%).
Food processing was boosted by somewhat better sugar output (still -29% y-o-y), while the pick-up in chemical production suggests that several large chemical plants idled in September and October restarted production. Other key industries, including export-oriented machine building and metallurgical sectors, continued to report weak output dynamics, implying no major change in external demand.

In other positive developments, growth in agriculture accelerated to 11.7% y-o-y in 11M13 from 9.9% in 10M13 and 3.0% in 9M13 on a record high grain harvest. Ukraine harvested 63.4 Mt of grain (bunker weight) this year, implying 59-60 Mt in net-weight terms (+30% y-o-y). Also, in line with previous months, cargo transportation continued to demonstrate improving dynamics on steady growth in gas transit volumes observed since mid-2013. As a result, the decline in cargo transportation slowed to -4.5% y-o-y in 11M13 from a revised 5.4% in 10M13 (see chart and table on next page).
At the same time, retail trade and construction data suggest that domestic consumption and investment demand remained weak, though both indicators improved last month. Organized retail turnover rose 2.2% y-o-y in November compared to +1.2% in October, while the decline in construction slowed to 14% y-o-y in 11M13 from -15% in 10M13 (November registered a much sharper y-o-y drop, yet we treat monthly data with caution due to their substantial retroactive revisions).

Last month’s improvement in economic activity supports our view that real GDP should return to positive territory in 4Q13 after five consecutive quarters of decline (-1.3% in 3Q13), driven primarily by agriculture.

At the same time, yesterday’s agreements between Ukraine and Russia imply an upside risk to our 2014 GDP growth projection of 1.5% y-o-y, as generous budget support provided by Russia will enable Ukraine to substantially loosen its fiscal policy ahead of March 2015 presidential elections. In addition, a lower gas price also agreed yesterday will be conducive to more rapid production growth in selected industries such as chemicals, while agreed joint projects should support investment recovery.

CORPORATES
Motor Sich — To benefit from new gov’t deal with Russia
One of a package of Ukrainian-Russian agreements signed yesterday included a deal on cooperation in aircraft manufacturing. The sides agreed to work towards resuming serial production of the An-124 (Ruslan) heavy cargo airplane and completing tests on another large cargo aircraft, the An-70, by February 2014 in order to make a decision on the feasibility of its serial production. (Interfax, Dzerkalo Tyzhnya)
Dragon view: The agreement is positive for Motor Sich, which will be the sole producer of engines for both the An-124 and An-70 regardless of the place of final assembly (Ukraine or Russia), as was the case with An-148/158 production.
….
We expect Motor Sich to appreciate on the news and will update our price target on the stock shortly.

Kernel Holding [Hold; PT $14.65] — Insider buying continues
WSE-listed Kernel Holding, Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer, reported a company controlled by a Kernel manager acquired 34,742 of company shares at PLN 37.3 on average betweenDec. 13-16. (Company)
Dragon view: We estimate the transaction’s total value at $0.43m, accounting for 8% of Kernel’s total share turnover over the period (in value and volume terms). We think the latest share purchase, similar to recent insider buying, was aimed at supporting Kernel’s share price after it corrected following the publication of weak 1Q14FY financial results on Nov. 29.







Ein Klick auf den Danke – Button tut ganz bestimmt nicht weh!

[startvestor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.063.716 von aitutaki2009 am 17.12.13 12:07:14

Meine Chinesen waren ja noch viel billiger, KGV weit unter 1 etc. Hilft alles nichts, wenn die Zahlen gefälscht sind oder die Firma einfach gestohlen wird. Bin weiterhin bei Agroton gespannt, was mit dem Bond wird.

[aitutaki2009]

Aus dem heutigen Broker Report:

Market comment

Ukrainian equities offered investors big gains and losses in trading on Tuesday, Dec. 17. The WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks slid 0.7%, extending its loss streak to 4.8% over four sessions. It was weighed down by Coal Energy (CLE PW -8.0%), which has plunged 12.1% in two sessions after reporting the death of four miners in an accident. Car battery maker WESTA (WES PW) plummeted 5.2% while the more liquid shares of sugar maker Astarta (AST PW) advanced 2.4%. Outside the Index, Serinus Energy (SEN PW) dropped 4.5%. In London, Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) gained 3.5% and Bank of Georgia (BGEO LN) improved 3.1%. The Ukrainian Exchange (UX) Index of Kyiv-traded stocks rose 0.3%, fueled by a surge in UniCredit’s Ukrsotsbank (USCB UK +9.5%) and steel maker Azovstal (AZST UK +4.4%).

Equities

Coal Energy coal production drops in November
Coal Energy’s total coal production in November dropped 3.4% m/m to 66 kt. The output decline was driven by lower mining in both the thermal and coking coal segments, by 4.4% m/m and 8.8% m/m respectively, while coal production from waste recovery increased 5.6% to 12.2 kt. If compared to November 2012, total coal production declined 58% yoy, caused by an underground mining plunge of 64% yoy, and somewhat counterbalanced by an increase in coal production from waste by 56% yoy.

In other news, four miners were killed in an accident at Coal Energy’s Sviato-Pokrovska mine on Dec. 16. A methane mixture exploded in the mine at a depth of 320m, according to the preliminary results of the investigation. The mine is considered to be low-methane (below 5 cm of methane per ton of coal). The Sviato-Porkrovska mine, which will be temporarily closed, is among ten mining assets of Coal Energy, which provided 1% of the company’s underground coal mining during 1QFY14.

Milkiland starts cheese exports to Turkmenistan
Ukrainian dairy producer Milkiland reported on December 16 it started exporting cheese to Turkmenistan. The contract with Turkmen buyers is for USD 2 mln of supplies till the end of 2014. If the deal goes well, Milkiland will occupy about 10% of Turkmen cheese market next year, according to the company’s release.

Alexander Paraschiy: Such diversification will not help much for the company to mitigate possible risks that exist in its cheese exports to Russia. The deal accounts for just about 1% of the company’s annual revenue in its “cheese and butter” segment, and the plan to occupy a 10% market share in Turkmenistan in just one year looks ambitious. At the same time, weinterpret the company’s move as the beginning of its expansion to central Asian countries, which may be welcomed by the stock market.


Ein Klick auf den Danke – Button tut ganz bestimmt nicht weh!

[aitutaki2009]

Zitat von startvestor: Der Report ist eine deutliche Warnung und v.a. vor Mehrheitseigner Zhuravlov.
Der Report erinnert mich leider fatal an meine chinesischen Betrügeraktien.

Genau deshalb habe ich Dir diesen Report herausgesucht und hier einkopiert (Übrigens: Ein Klick auf den Danke – Button tut ganz bestimmt nicht weh!)
Auf aktuellem Niveau ist Agroton schlichtweg nicht billig genug, um dieses „Betrugs“-Risiko einzugehen. Was im Umkehrschluss aber auch bedeutet: Man kann – „billig“ genug vorausgesetzt – durchaus auch so ein Risiko eingehen. Ich tue das bewusst manchmal, und gerade in der Ukraine könnten sich da grade in solchen Aktien ganz enorme Chancen auftun! Das habe ich u.a. vom OSTINVESTOR – einem Börsenbrief für solche Märkte, den es leider nicht mehr gibt – gelernt.

Kommt es in der Ukraine doch zu einer Annäherung an die EU, haben u.U. solche Gauner kein so leichtes Spiel mehr. Und dann können plötzlich ruck-zuck die Gewinne in den Bilanzen praktisch über Nacht explodieren – die Aktienkurse tun es dann meist auch. Waren die Kurse tief genug geknüppelt, reden wir da von „Dausend“ und mehr Prozent. High risk – very high return. Nix für jeden, nix um alles auf 1 Karte zu setzen.

Ein Klick auf den Danke – Button tut nicht weh

[startvestor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.055.764 von aitutaki2009 am 16.12.13 10:40:27

Der Report ist eine deutliche Warnung und v.a. vor Mehrheitseigner Zhuravlov. Von der heute endenden Abstimmung der Noteholder kenne ich noch kein Ergebnis, vielleicht sollten sie Agroton lieber liquidieren.
Der Report erinnert mich leider fatal an meine chinesischen Betrügeraktien.