Bombardier im Höhenflug :-) (Seite 34)
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ISIN: CA0977518616 · WKN: A3DMJG · Symbol: BBDC
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FeedbackWirklich TOLL
diese ewig POSITIVEN Nachrichten!Aber der Kurs zeigt uns was anderes, NOCH!
Die Frage ist nur, wie lange wird dieses "hinhalten" noch dauern, so lange bis irgwann mal tats. eine negative Nachricht kommt, wie z.B. am Montag mit VistaJet, was ja nicht wirklich eine war!
Aber sie wurde halt dafür benutzt, wieder mal die Anleger zu verunsichern und billig Aktien zu "klauen", V-Bude eben...
Naja, die Zahlen von GD machen ja Hoffnung für unsere Perle und wenn die Auslieferungen v 138 erreicht wurden, na dann....
Nur, es wird halt schön langsam echt langweilig, diese WIRKLICH "EIGENARTIGEN" Kursverläufe über einen so langen Zeitraum mit erleben zu müssen!!!
Und noch was
RBC: Connecting the dots (GD Results)Connecting the Dots: BBD flash read-through – GD's Aerospace segment drives results
What happened?
General Dynamics (GD) today reported Q4 results, with EPS coming in at $3.64, below consensus of $3.68, and revenue of $11.7B, above consensus $11.4B driven by Aerospace and Marine Systems
Sentiment: Positive
Our view.
We view the strong Q4 order and sales activity as a positive read-through for Bombardier and the bizjet production outlook. The Aerospace unit received $3.2B in new orders during what is a seasonally strong quarter, ending the year with 1.2x book-to-bill. Sales at the unit, which produces Gulfstream jets, were up 12% y/y on 39 aircraft deliveries and margins came in strong at 16.4% (vs 13.8% in 4Q22) on mix. No update was provided on the G700 certification in the release, but we expect to get an update on the call today. We note that further delays extend BBD's market leading position in large long range jets.
Hallo Hallo hier was zu lesen
Concerns Over VistaJet Weighing On BBD SharesOur Conclusion
BBD shares have been under pressure on financial concerns over fleet operator VistaJet and fears that it could (or could be forced to) start selling its fleet (comprised highly of BBD jets) into the market, negatively impacting BBD’s new aircraft sales. We are of the opinion that the risk of VistaJet aircraft coming to market and cannibalizing BBD sales may not be as significant as feared. BBD is Neutral rated with a C$60 price target.
Key Points
BBD shares were down 6.7% yesterday (January 22) and are down 8.0% YTD. One of the headwinds facing the stock in recent days are concerns over fleet operator VistaJet – specifically concerns over its financial performance and its ability to cover its debt, which has been highlighted in recent media reports. The company has also taken on more debt in recent years to finance the purchase of aircraft. A VistaJet bond issued in May 2023 has been selling off on the back of these concerns, and there is a fear that the fleet operator may be forced into selling aircraft to cover its debt obligations. VistaJet has the largest BBD super-mid to large business-jet fleet in the industry, and the concern is that this could affect BBD’s ability to market its new aircraft if we see an increase in used aircraft enter the market. For reference, according to RadarBox, VistaJet owns 21 Challenger 350s, one Global 5000, 12 Global 7500s and 28 Global 6000s. Below are our thoughts on the situation:
1. We are of the opinion that the risk of VistaJet aircraft potentially entering the used aircraft market and cannibalizing BBD new aircraft sales may not be as significant as feared. Using Radarbox data, we would note that VistaJet aircraft have high utilization rates. We looked at the BBD aircraft type owned by VistaJet and observed that the fleet operator’s utilization of these assets over the past 12 months is relatively high compared to its peer groups. For example, looking at flight activity for the Challenger 350, VistaJet fleet’s flight hours per aircraft is ranked amongst the top three while Globals is consistently ranked at the top. These are not “lightly used” jets, so it is not a foregone conclusion that it would cannibalize new jet sales if these aircraft were to enter the pre-owned market. In addition, we would point to the business aviation industry as still benefitting from good demand fundamentals today even if activity is plateauing. Looking at business aviation activity (number of flights), in 2023 it was ~30% above 2019 levels. Please refer to Exhibits 1 - 5 for a summary of the utilization rate of BBD aircraft over the past year.
2. Our Neutral rating reflects our view that business aircraft deliveries will peak in around 2025. That said, we do expect BBD to report strong Q4/23 earnings with its 2023 guidance de-risked. According to Aviation Week, BBD delivered 39 aircraft in December and 56 in the fourth quarter, bringing its annual total to 138 (on par with BBD’s annual target and in line with our expectations). With BBD hitting its annual delivery target, this alleviates concerns around the risk of BBD meeting its 2023 revenue, EBITDA and FCF guidance. On this last point, reaching its delivery target is a key driver of unwinding working capital and putting it in a position to generate ~$640MM of FCF in Q4/23 and to achieve $250MM+ in 2023.
3. From a valuation and trading range perspective, BBD is now trading at ~$48.75/share. If we look back to January of 2023, the stock has traded between ~$45/share and ~$70/share. BBD is trading at ~6.5x EV to forward EBITDA and looking back five years, 6x EV to forward EBTIDA has been a good floor for the name.
wow
gestern wieder volle Kanne retour in den grünen Bereich... 
na das war aber nur für die Nerven einiger Anleger und ein neuer Hoffnungsschimmer am Horizont, mehr aber auch nicht!!!
Heute evtl. wieder DUNKELROT ???
Das ist noch nicht ausgestanden, könnte mir vorstellen das es bis zu den Zahlen so weiter geht, danach vielleicht, aber nur vielleicht etwas "Beruhigung"!
Sollten die Zahlen dann doch über den Erwartungen liegen und der Kurs orientiert sich dann auch noch nicht nach oben, hmm, dann stimmt aber wirklich was nicht, dann ist es vl. doch nicht nur die V-Bude...
Nur, ein solches Szenarium kann und will ich mir ABSOLUT nicht vorstellen..
Ich lese und denke ja genau
So ist es und dann sehe ich wieder knapp 34 eur kurs..Ich erinnere an die Entwicklung des Immobilien Besitzes wenn man umzieht nach pearson..
Davon wird gar nicht mehr gesprochen und ich denke mir hey dawerden locker 800 Millionen kommen zusätzlich geld kommen..wenn die wirklich 2024/25 gut arbeiten alles erfüllen u d dann solche Überraschungen noch kommen können ja dann wird alles gut..ich würde mich nur mit aktuell 60 eur wohler fühlen
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.151.243 von neu_gierig am 23.01.24 17:28:37
aber geht mir der Kurs trotzdem auf den Senkel mein Gott.
Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) – Sector Outperform, Target increases to $90 from $85
BBD is one of our top picks this year. We believe the stock’s significant discount to history and peers is reflecting investors’ key concerns about the bizjet cycle (flying activity, book:bill ratio and pre-owned inventory), the company’s potentially looming product reinvestment cycle, and the return of material FCF seasonality quarter over quarter. In addition, we think some traditional investors remain on the sidelines due to BBD’s rocky past when the company had a more stretched balance sheet while struggling with underperforming assets like CSeries and train division (sold over the years heading into the pandemic). We understand the cycle concern, however, the bizjet industry is not as sensitive to macro as commercial aviation, while BBD is no longer in the relatively more macro-sensitive segment (smaller bizjets). Further, OEMs have built a solid backlog over the past three years, production rates are constrained by industry supply chain issues (e.g., engine suppliers), pricing remains firm, and order cancellation risk is much lower in this cycle due to more stringent penalty terms. In addition, BBD has significantly grown its resilient, higher-margin aftermarket services business, while also expanding into other growth avenues (defense and certified pre-owned). Industry pre-owned inventory is still quite low at ~6% vs. ~10% pre-pandemic and historically normal range of 11%-14%. Book:bill ratio remains relatively healthy at ~1.0x despite rising production rates as fleet operators in particular are driving order activity. BBD’s leverage ratio has significantly improved to 4x from nearly 8x in 2021 and remains on track to hit management’s 2025 target of 2.0x-2.5x, which could take the company closer to investment grade rating. Even with our reasonable estimates and highly conservative valuation multiple, our BBD target price implies the highest potential return in our coverage universe.
Highly attractive valuation. We raised our target price to $90 from $85 on rolling forward valuation to 2025E from average 2024E-2025E, while trimming our EV/EBITDA multiple by 0.5x to 6.5x and largely maintaining our forecasts. Our target multiple is significantly below BBD’s pre-pandemic average of 10x to reflect macro/long-term capex risks and the pure-play nature of the business. The stock is currently trading at 6.2x/4.8x on our 2024E/2025E vs. the closest comps (GD/TXT) at 11x/10x and its pre-pandemic trough of 6.0x.
Estimate changes. We have largely kept our 2024-2025 EBITDA and FCF estimates intact, while slightly increasing our delivery outlook to align with management’s 2025 target. We are also introducing our 2026 estimates, which reflect our increased capex assumption of US$600M vs. US$300M in 2025E. We expect FCF to nearly double in 2024 and more than triple by 2025 from 2023, before normalizing to US$600M in 2026. Our annual FCF forecasts are quite conservative vs. consensus, while our 2025 estimates are more conservative than guidance.
Q4 preview. BBD is likely to report in February. We largely maintain our estimates of US$653M FCF (~4x y/y), US$2.8B revenue (+7% y/y), US$384M EBITDA (+9% y/y), and US$213M EBIT (+1% y/y), assuming 57 deliveries (+8 y/y) and 0.8x book:bill ratio (vs. 1.0x YTD). Our estimates are slightly more conservative than consensus. For the full-year 2023, we are above management’s targeted minimums of FCF (>US$250M), deliveries (>138), revenue (>US$7.6B), EBITDA (>$1.125B), and EBIT (>US$695M).
2024 outlook. BBD will likely provide detailed guidance as usual. We have modestly increased our delivery (145), revenue (US$8.2B), EBITDA (US$1.3B) and EBIT (US$872M) estimates as we are gaining more confidence in BBD’s 2025 production target on the back of recent order disclosures, while maintaining our FCF estimate (US$450M). Our estimates are more conservative than consensus, particularly FCF (Street US$577M). Assuming a book:bill ratio of ~1.0x, we expect earnings growth, modest interest cost savings, lack of RVG payments, and capex reduction to drive significant FCF growth. We continue to assume US$300M capex, down from US$352M in 2023E as the new Toronto assembly plant has likely commissioned. We expect the leverage ratio to further improve to 2.9x from 3.5x in 2023E.
Notable corporate updates. (1) BBD announced a firm order from an undisclosed customer for 12 Challenger 3500 jets, with deliveries set to begin in 2H/25. (2) During the quarter, the company raised US$750M debt priced at 8.75% (fixed) with a 2030 maturity. The proceeds were used to redeem all remaining 2025 debt (US$380M; 7.50% rate) and US$360M of 2026/2027 debt maturities (7.125% and 7.875% rates).
Yo 3 Auslieferungen in 24...
Warten wir ab..ich posten mal die neuen Analysten. aber geht mir der Kurs trotzdem auf den Senkel mein Gott.Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) – Sector Outperform, Target increases to $90 from $85
BBD is one of our top picks this year. We believe the stock’s significant discount to history and peers is reflecting investors’ key concerns about the bizjet cycle (flying activity, book:bill ratio and pre-owned inventory), the company’s potentially looming product reinvestment cycle, and the return of material FCF seasonality quarter over quarter. In addition, we think some traditional investors remain on the sidelines due to BBD’s rocky past when the company had a more stretched balance sheet while struggling with underperforming assets like CSeries and train division (sold over the years heading into the pandemic). We understand the cycle concern, however, the bizjet industry is not as sensitive to macro as commercial aviation, while BBD is no longer in the relatively more macro-sensitive segment (smaller bizjets). Further, OEMs have built a solid backlog over the past three years, production rates are constrained by industry supply chain issues (e.g., engine suppliers), pricing remains firm, and order cancellation risk is much lower in this cycle due to more stringent penalty terms. In addition, BBD has significantly grown its resilient, higher-margin aftermarket services business, while also expanding into other growth avenues (defense and certified pre-owned). Industry pre-owned inventory is still quite low at ~6% vs. ~10% pre-pandemic and historically normal range of 11%-14%. Book:bill ratio remains relatively healthy at ~1.0x despite rising production rates as fleet operators in particular are driving order activity. BBD’s leverage ratio has significantly improved to 4x from nearly 8x in 2021 and remains on track to hit management’s 2025 target of 2.0x-2.5x, which could take the company closer to investment grade rating. Even with our reasonable estimates and highly conservative valuation multiple, our BBD target price implies the highest potential return in our coverage universe.
Highly attractive valuation. We raised our target price to $90 from $85 on rolling forward valuation to 2025E from average 2024E-2025E, while trimming our EV/EBITDA multiple by 0.5x to 6.5x and largely maintaining our forecasts. Our target multiple is significantly below BBD’s pre-pandemic average of 10x to reflect macro/long-term capex risks and the pure-play nature of the business. The stock is currently trading at 6.2x/4.8x on our 2024E/2025E vs. the closest comps (GD/TXT) at 11x/10x and its pre-pandemic trough of 6.0x.
Estimate changes. We have largely kept our 2024-2025 EBITDA and FCF estimates intact, while slightly increasing our delivery outlook to align with management’s 2025 target. We are also introducing our 2026 estimates, which reflect our increased capex assumption of US$600M vs. US$300M in 2025E. We expect FCF to nearly double in 2024 and more than triple by 2025 from 2023, before normalizing to US$600M in 2026. Our annual FCF forecasts are quite conservative vs. consensus, while our 2025 estimates are more conservative than guidance.
Q4 preview. BBD is likely to report in February. We largely maintain our estimates of US$653M FCF (~4x y/y), US$2.8B revenue (+7% y/y), US$384M EBITDA (+9% y/y), and US$213M EBIT (+1% y/y), assuming 57 deliveries (+8 y/y) and 0.8x book:bill ratio (vs. 1.0x YTD). Our estimates are slightly more conservative than consensus. For the full-year 2023, we are above management’s targeted minimums of FCF (>US$250M), deliveries (>138), revenue (>US$7.6B), EBITDA (>$1.125B), and EBIT (>US$695M).
2024 outlook. BBD will likely provide detailed guidance as usual. We have modestly increased our delivery (145), revenue (US$8.2B), EBITDA (US$1.3B) and EBIT (US$872M) estimates as we are gaining more confidence in BBD’s 2025 production target on the back of recent order disclosures, while maintaining our FCF estimate (US$450M). Our estimates are more conservative than consensus, particularly FCF (Street US$577M). Assuming a book:bill ratio of ~1.0x, we expect earnings growth, modest interest cost savings, lack of RVG payments, and capex reduction to drive significant FCF growth. We continue to assume US$300M capex, down from US$352M in 2023E as the new Toronto assembly plant has likely commissioned. We expect the leverage ratio to further improve to 2.9x from 3.5x in 2023E.
Notable corporate updates. (1) BBD announced a firm order from an undisclosed customer for 12 Challenger 3500 jets, with deliveries set to begin in 2H/25. (2) During the quarter, the company raised US$750M debt priced at 8.75% (fixed) with a 2030 maturity. The proceeds were used to redeem all remaining 2025 debt (US$380M; 7.50% rate) and US$360M of 2026/2027 debt maturities (7.125% and 7.875% rates).
Und wieder mal was nettes…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/bombardier-global-pri… Es wundert mich aber dann doch….
…, da ich ja schon voriges Jahr diese „Nachrichten“ gelesen hab, hab ich jez nochmal gesucht u gefunden!https://theshiftnews.com/2023/05/17/vistajet-muscat-govts-tr…
Und lt. Beitrag sind über 360 Jets im Bestand, lt. Wiki gab es 2023 90 !! Bomber, also ca. 1/4, aber vl. Hat sich in den letzten Monaten ja was verändert, keine Ahnung!
Trotzdem, selbst wenn der Schuldenstand stimmt, 360 Jets sind ja auch was wert….
Und sooo viele Jets hätte Vista in Zukunft auch wieder nicht bestellt, aber nat. wär es nicht so witzig, würden sie wegfallen!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.148.093 von neu_gierig am 23.01.24 08:55:00
Mich hingegen wundert es nicht wirklich und darauf wird auch im Text Bezug genommen. Bombardier ist halt nur noch Business jets, während General Dynamics und Textron noch ne starke Rüstungssparte haben und Embraer auch Verkehrsflugzeuge baut. Hinzu kommt: Vistajets Flotte besteht größtenteils aus BBD-Flugzeugen und Vistajet ist wohl auch der größte Einzelkunde. Sollte der ausfallen, ist das sicherlich nicht förderlich für BBD.
Zitat von neu_gierig: Textron, Embrear und General Dyn. (Gulfstream) gestern alle im grünen Bereich... heee, wenn Vistajet oder vl. in Zukunft "Mistjet" sich auf den Aktienkurs der Hersteller auswirken würde, warum dann nur auf unsere Perle, noch dazu über 6% !!!!
Abs. Sch... V-Bude, sonst nix....
Mich hingegen wundert es nicht wirklich und darauf wird auch im Text Bezug genommen. Bombardier ist halt nur noch Business jets, während General Dynamics und Textron noch ne starke Rüstungssparte haben und Embraer auch Verkehrsflugzeuge baut. Hinzu kommt: Vistajets Flotte besteht größtenteils aus BBD-Flugzeugen und Vistajet ist wohl auch der größte Einzelkunde. Sollte der ausfallen, ist das sicherlich nicht förderlich für BBD.
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Bombardier im Höhenflug :-)
