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[TFischer]

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Gruss

TFischer

[TFischer]

News:

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

November 13, 2000



I received this letter recently from silver analyst, Ted Butler: I hope you read
and enjoy it.

Dear Jim:

I’m glad to hear you are getting the word out on silver, and that the response
has been good. I want to see you sell a bunch of silver. Putting people into
silver right now will result in them making great gains. As you know, I don’t
think people have much more time to take advantage of these low prices.

To make the case for silver one of the things I wanted your customers to see
was how much more gold there is in inventories around the world, than there
is silver. Of the 125,000 to 175,000 tons of gold mined since the dawn of
civilization, I would use a low ball figure of 50,000 tons currently in bullion
form. 50,000 tons isn’t too high, when you consider that the Central Banks
are listed as owning 30 to 35 thousand tons alone. In fact, there is probably
more than 50,000 tons. There’s 32,000 ounces of gold in a ton so that equals
1.6 billion ounces. There are 1.6 billion ounces of gold in world inventories.
Compare that to 120 million ounces of silver.

That’s right, silver has a verifiable world bullion inventory of maybe 120
million ounces. This would include COMEX warehouse stocks ( the largest
stockpile in the world ) , all other world commodities exchanges, and all
known government stockpiles. COMEX silver stocks are down 250 million
ounces to under 100 million ounces over the past few years, a drop of 70%.

To account for all the private, non-reported silver, let’s now triple the amount
of bullion silver in the world to 300 million ounces. Now I know that we
produce many more ounces of silver each year from mining, than we do gold.
And I know that over the course of world history, we have produced many
billions more ounces of silver than gold, but all those extra billions of ounces
of silver have been consumed in the past 50 years. Because of a half century
of consuming more silver than was produced, there is a lot less silver left than
gold.



There is more than five times as much gold in the world as silver. If people
were aware of that, as you must make them aware, they would switch from
gold to silver in a heartbeat. Let’s face it, one of gold’s major attributes is its
known scarcity. All the gold mined since the dawn of man would
approximate the dimensions of the Washington Monument. Gold is a scarce
commodity. But silver is five times scarcer. Its supply is one-fifth the size of
the Washington Monument. Gold should explode in price soon. But it will be
nothing like silver.

There is five times as much gold in the world as silver, but that does not begin
to tell the true story. The price of gold is 55 times more expensive than silver.
Jim, I want you to take the price of gold and multiply it by the number of
ounces in inventory. $265 per ounce times 1.6 billion ounces. That comes to
$425 billion. There is a gold inventory in the world of $425 billion.

Do the same equation for silver. $4.70 per ounce times 300 million ounces.
That equals about $1.4 billion total world silver inventories. We have $425
billion worth of gold in the world ( probably much more ) versus $1.4 billion
worth of silver ( probably much less ) . The real Gold/Silver Ratio is not 55 it’s
300. Let me state it this way - there is 300 times more gold than silver in the
world on a straight dollar comparison. In other words, the value of all the
gold in the world is priced more than 300 times all the silver. This is one of
the reasons that I insist that the price of silver is wrong. One of your main
responsibilities is to sell value to your customers. You can’t provide a better
value than to get them into silver.

95% of all the gold mined in a year goes into jewelry or bullion equivalent
investment. Only a small percentage of gold is consumed industrially. That’s
why the world still possesses just about all the gold ever mined. By that
measure, a reasonable headline might read. "Gold in Existence Hits 5000
Year High Point". Silver, on the other hand, sees its entire world mine
production consumed industrially, and then some. ( "Then some" means we
also consume a big chunk of remaining inventories industrially ) . This industrial
consumption has continued unabated for 50 years. Thus, a reasonable
headline for silver might read, "Silver World Inventories Hit 250 Year Low
Point". Where do you think your customers are likely to find the most value?

Just to put this dollar value comparison of gold and silver world inventories
into a different perspective, consider this - a $1 move in the price of gold,
changes the dollar value of gold inventories by an amount greater than the
total value of the entire world silver inventory. One dollar in gold equals a
change in gold inventories of $1.6 billion dollars, while total silver world
inventories are worth just $1.4 billion. Pretty amazing, eh?

Jim, please don’t interpret this as a diatribe against gold. Nothing could be
further from the truth. I like gold here. It’s got value and explosive price
potential. Even though I look at things through my commodity analyst,
supply/demand eyes, I can see why people like gold. It is no one else’s
liability, its anonymous and there isn’t much of it. But you can say the same
things about silver. And with silver, you can add that its total amount in
existence is shrinking. In fact, the dollar amount left amounts to one-third of
1% of the dollar amount of gold in existence. Think about that - the dollar
value of world silver inventories is only .3% ( point three percent ) of the dollar
value of gold inventories. Did you know that?

Facts like this are what you must convey to your clients. Gold, along with
silver, has been manipulated and artificially depressed in price. Gold will rise
in price. It may, in time, double or triple in price. But it is very unlikely, in my
opinion, to see the ten and twenty fold run that silver will experience. It’s no
easy task to get an item valued at $425 billion to jump to $4 or $8 trillion.
Getting an item worth $1.4 billion to jump to $14 or $28 billion is relatively,
no big deal, especially one in a chronic shortage. My biggest concern about
gold’s price movement is that if gold starts to run, the world governments still
control sufficient quantities that can be released to contain the price. In silver,
no entity could contain a real surge in physical demand.

If you can get enough of your customers to buy silver, this may break the
back of the silver manipulators. This silver manipulation will end, when the
market can’t provide enough real metal at the artificially depressed price. Get
enough clients to own silver and you may be instrumental in ending the silver
manipulation. However, when silver explodes, most eyes will focus on gold.
That’s because silver and gold go hand in hand. There are not many times in
history that their prices don’t track one another. If silver explodes in price,
people will look for reasons. Market participants will ask how it was possible
to explode from a dead market to a vertical move. Those reasons will be
centered upon leasing and the short positions. People will recognize that the
silver market was manipulated – the price explosion will be the very proof of
the manipulation. These conditions exist in gold as well. There will be a very
strong connection between the manipulation in silver and gold, once it is
obvious that silver was manipulated. I firmly believe that silver will set the
price of gold free. I can’t stress enough to you the latent power in silver. It
will explode like a steam boiler.

There are other things worth mentioning about silver today. This year
something is going to happen in silver that hasn’t happened in half a century.
For the first time in over 50 years, the U.S. government will go from being a
steady net supplier of silver to the market, to a net consumer. This is a
potential block-buster. Using conservative numbers the USG supplied to the
market 3 billion ounces, or 60 million ounces a year for 50 years, via coinage
and inventory disposals. For the last ten years, the amount supplied has
dropped to 10 million ounces a year, as the stockpile has approached zero,
primarily because of the silver Eagle and Commemorative coin programs. In
order to continue these popular coinage programs, the USG will now have to
buy silver to have these coins produced, to the likely tune of 10 million
ounces a year. From supplying 10 million ounces, to needing 10 million, is an
immediate 20 million ounce net swing in total impact on the supply/demand
equation. It’s like having a huge silver mine shut down unexpectedly and
permanently. The U.S. government supplied, on average, 60 million ounces
of silver a year, for fifty years, at a rough average price of a buck an ounce.
They will supply 0 per year for the next 50 or 100 years, no matter how high
the price goes. That’s a permanent change in the silver supply/demand
equation.

Here’s another consideration. The depletion of the U.S. government’s once
fabled silver stockpile, renders impossible any attempt by the government to
cap prices when demand hits the market. They still have 265 million ounces
of gold ( so they claim ) and they wouldn’t hesitate to use it, in an emergency –
just like they tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for political and price
reasons. They cannot do this with silver.

Just one last thing in closing - sort of a confession. People have asked me
over the years, ‘Why doesn’t someone big come along, and just buy up the
remaining silver in the world?" This is a highly legitimate question which I
attempt to answer by saying, they don’t want the headaches that befell
Nelson Bunker Hunt, who tried in 1980. Lately, I could answer that Warren
Buffett, the world’s most successful investor, did do it. ( Although, I don’t
think Mr. Buffett still holds real silver, but silver lease paper ) . Well, the
confession is this - I don’t care to see a mega-investor make a play in silver.
Not only would such a concentrated holding be subject to possible forced
liquidation by regulatory authorities ( like happened to Hunt and perhaps
Buffett, too, I think ) , but seeing some fat cat score big in the silver market
( especially if he did it on my research ) , wouldn’t make me happy. I’d much
rather see a bunch of regular people bring home the silver bacon. Not only
would a bunch of investors be impossible to be talked out of their position,
seeing great numbers of people make money in silver, would be an intense
pleasure for me.

Jim, there isn’t much time. Never before in history has there been such a
confluence of bullish factors for a commodity. There’s been a deficit each
year for 10 years. The world’s former largest holder of silver, the U.S.
government, is officially running out. There exists the largest short position the
world has ever seen in any commodity. On top of this silver leasing has
already dumped two full years of future world mine production on the
market. It can’t be sold again and it must be repaid. World inventories of
silver are at a 250-year low point and that goes back to before the U.S. was
even a nation. All this, plus the lowest inflation adjusted price for silver in
5,000 years tells me this is a powerful case. Get your clients into silver now.
If you accept my premise that only 5% of any particular asset class is
available for purchase by long term investors over the course of a year, that
means that maybe only 5% of the $1.4 billion worth of silver inventory in the
world, or a piddling $70 million, can be bought by your clients without
impacting the price. Please get a move on - the hour’s getting late. This is a
once-in-a-lifetime story.

Ted Butler

[tin]

Am Vorabend der Hausse.

[xnickel]

Will kein Spielverderber sein. Im Gegenteil, warte wie verrückt.
Warum?
Weil ich seit 15 (fünfzehn) Jahren lese, die Silberpipeline sei leer.
Irgendwann hat jeder mal recht. Hoffentlich die Silberoptimisten bald.
Erst fiel die Sowjetunion als Nettokäufer aus.
Irgendwie haben die dann in einem Kuhhandel China zum Verkauf großer Bestände getrieben.
Mal warten, was die noch für Asse aus dem Ärmel ziehen?

Daß es als eine Initialzündung für Gold gefürchtet ist, denke ich natürlich auch.
Ein Grund mehr, irgend was neues zu tricksen.
xnickel

[TFischer]

Das Tricksen kann aber nicht für alle Zeit einfach weitergehen. Dazu reicht das noch vorhandene Silber ganz einfach nicht mehr aus. Dazu kommt, dass Silber industriell in viel stärkerem und dazu auch noch steigendem Mass als Gold benötigt wird. Ganz wichtig ist aber auch, dass sich dazu noch das ganze politische und wirtschaftliche Umfeld rasant geändert hat und nun beginnt, in das Bewusstsein der Leute einzufliessen. Da beginnen einige Spiralen anzulaufen. Physisches Silber als Anlage drängt sich momentan ganz einfach auf und hat zudem den Vorteil gegenüber a l l e n Papieranlagen, im schlimmsten Fall nicht einfach auf den Papierwert reduziert zu werden.

Gruss

TFischer

[alterhaase]

665232

[jeffery2]

Gegen alle Vorhersagen der Chartys ,Tilgner usw. zeigt sich der CRB Index auf Jahreshöchststand. Dies kann auf Dauer am Gold/Silber nicht vorbeigehen. Könnte durchaus sein,daß wir wieder so eine Dikussion über Rohstoffe bekommen wie zur besten Zeit des Club of Rome. (Die Tiermehlgeschichte, Soja, der Ölpreis usw. )könnten die Sache doch heftig anschieben.
MfG J2

[alterhaase]

Die Fluoreszenz des Goldes

Gold war schon immer ein beliebtes Element.
Meist wurde das gelblich glänzende Edelmetall zwar bloß als Wertanlage oder für Schmuckstücke eingesetzt,
doch es erfreute sich auch bei Wissenschaftlern immer großer Beliebtheit. So erkannte einer von ihnen, dass Gold eine viel längere Fluoreszenz erreichen kann als man bisher dachte. Diese Erkenntnis könnte von großem Nutzen für die Medizin sein, die seit langem
breite Anwendungsmöglichkeiten für Goldtherapien sieht.

wie lange hält das Lügengerüst noch,
es steht zu befürchten, daß sich die Bleichgesichter einig sind.

insgesamt sieht das alles nicht gut aus,

nur physisch kaufen (solange es noch geht) ist der Weg,
alles andere ist Hoffnung auf Ernte im Winter

wenn 10 Mio. Sparer eine Unze kaufen, sind das 310 t
derzeit kostet eine Unze ca. 650 DM. (Tendenz steigend bei angeblich gleichem Goldpreis)

[xnickel]

Hallo alterhaase und alle,
und was ist, wenn die Shorties wirklich die Kraftprobe gewinnen und alle Notenbankbestände ausverkauft werden?
Das würde noch etliche Jährchen dauern.
Kann mir nicht vorstellen, daß die Shorties aufgeben müssen.
Die haben alle (Politik, Wirtschaft und wer weiß ich) Angst, das Chaos auszulösen.
Sollen doch die Nachfolger.
Will so eine Plünderung des Volksvermögens Gold zwar auch nicht glauben; mein Verstand sieht was anderes.
Brauche nur an das anzapfen der US Ölreserve für den Krisenfall zu denken.
Wo war denn eine Krise? Nirgends. Und die Ölpreise steigen mittelfristig sowieso, bis immer weniger kaufen können.
Was wollten die denn tun, wenn in Nahost wirklich alle Sicherungen durchbrennen.
Da kann ich nur hoffen, daß alles von den Drahtziehern kalkuliert ist und denen nichts aus dem Ruder läuft.
Mißmutig freundlich grüßt
xnickel

[TFischer]

Wenn Bären einen Bären aufbinden wollen:

Silver Hits 3-Yr Low; Producer Selling, Weak Demand Seen
By JAMIE MCGEEVER

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON -- With prices forging three-year lows Friday, there appears little to prevent the malaise in the silver market from deepening, even the recent strength in gold, normally seen as supportive to silver.

Selling from China, and production in general, is seen increasing despite price weakness, while demand growth is limited at best, especially after major consumer Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) is reported to have said it has fully hedged its buying needs for 2001.

"We expect more pressure to weigh on the silver price," said MKS Finance in a daily research note Friday, citing the anticipated lack of activity next year from one of the largest silver hedgers. "A move toward $4.52 (a troy ounce) seems more likely now."

Some analysts estimate Kodak`s share of global silver demand at around 10%.

Regarding price direction, John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS Warburg in London, said $4.50/oz appears to be the next psychological support level.

"Sustained upside potential is significantly limited," said Kevin Crisp, precious metals strategist at CSFB in London.

Early Friday, spot silver fell to $4.59/oz, a level last reached in September 1997. At 1145 GMT, it was trading at $4.61/oz.

Relative Gold Market Strength Not Supportive
The photographic industry is a major consumer of silver, and Kodak is the largest individual buyer.

In 1999, fabrication demand totaled 877 million oz, said Crisp. Of this, 246 million oz were bought by the photographic industry.

However, this level has edged up only slightly over the last 10 years, and with the emergence and growth of digital technology in photography - mainly in the more developed Western economies - demand growth for silver in this sector is seen as limited.

Nor is demand for silver increasing on the back of gold`s recent gains, largely due to a weakening dollar.

Since the end of October, the dollar gold price has recovered to around $270.50/oz Friday from an 11-month low of $262.45/oz. It even crept above $275/oz a few weeks ago.

However, in this period, silver has slipped from $4.76/oz, a momentary spike to $4.77/oz in early December notwithstanding. Barring major fundamental developments in its own market, silver traditionally tracks movements in the gold price.

Heavy Byproduct Output
Market participants say sustained producer and official selling, mainly from China, has been a major depressant on sentiment this year.

In a silver market survey released earlier this year, consultants Gold Fields Mineral Services said official sales in 1999 more than doubled on the year to 87 million oz. Most of this came from China.

There are few official holders, but one is China, and it holds vast stocks, analysts say.

Also, as a result of the gradual liberalization of the Chinese silver market, large producers are now thought to be selling directly to the market, bypassing the Peoples Bank Of China.

As silver is largely a byproduct of base metals and gold, there is little scope for a reduction in supply.

"Theoretically, production can keep on rising," said UBS Warburg`s Reade.

-By Jamie McGeever, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 207 842 9248; [e-mail]




Paradox, wenn Bären einen solchen Bullshit verzapfen!!!

Das Interessante daran ist aber, dass ausgerechnet die Silberminen in letzter Zeit relativ stark anzogen! Artikel dieser (Un)Art erscheinen gewöhnlich kurz vor Preisausbrüchen - auch da werden wir sehen!

Gruss

TFischer