US Konsumentenvertrauen - der Weg in die Rezession - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[fry]

Das Konsumentenvertauen fällt

Consumer Sentiment Falls to Lowest Since Nov 1993
By Ross Finley

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan crumbled for the third consecutive month in February, hitting its lowest level in more than seven years, market sources said on Friday.

The preliminary February consumer sentiment index, a key gauge of U.S. consumers` attitudes about the economy, slipped to 87.8, a level not seen since November 1993, from a final January reading of 94.7.

The Michigan sentiment index has fallen sharply in the months of December, January and February -- nearly 20 points since November -- as a swooning stock market, crumbling manufacturing, increasing layoffs and overall malaise about the economy has slammed consumer optimism.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to bounce higher, after the Federal Reserve sliced a full percentage point off of borrowing costs in January in an effort to boost flagging consumer confidence and prevent the rapidly slowing economy from slipping into recession.

Short-dated Treasury prices ripped higher on the unexpected news, while technology stocks, already more than 4 percent lower on negative earnings forecasts, did not react much.

``It`s clearly a terrible report,`` said John Youngdahl, senior economist and Fed watcher at Goldman Sachs in New York. ``Three straight very large declines is hard for anyone to ignore and I certainly don`t expect Chairman Greenspan to ignore it.``

The expectations index for February -- which looks to the months ahead -- also tumbled, to 77.6 from 86.4 in January. That level had also not been seen in more than seven years, since November 1993. The expectations index has now fallen 24 points since November.

The February preliminary current conditions barometer fell to 103.7, not seen since December 1995, from 107.7 in January.

The University of Michigan numbers, which are published twice monthly in preliminary and final series, are directly released to subscribers only.



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Quelle: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010216/bb.html

Warum ? Die amerikanischen Privathaushalte sind überschuldet.

Helpful Tips for Those in Over Their Heads

On average Americans carry nearly $6,000 in credit card debt from month to month. (Brian Garrigan/ABCNEWS.com)




By Arnold Diaz and Caroline Noel

When it comes to managing debt, many Americans are in hopelessly over their heads.
Consider these statistics from CardWeb.com:
The average American household has 13 payment cards, including credit cards, debit cards and store cards. There are 1.3 billion payment cards in circulation in the United States.
Americans made $1.1 trillion worth of credit card purchases in 1999.
Americans carry, on average, $5,800 in credit card debt from month to month. If one were to make only the minimum payment on that debt every month, it would take 30 years to pay off — and include an additional $15,000 in interest.
For some, digging out of debt proves impossible. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, 302,829 people filed for bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2000.
An array of Web sites provide valuable advice about paying down debt, as well as warnings about pitfalls.
First, the tips:
Complain. You may be able to get a lower interest rate from your credit card company, at least temporarily. According to CardWeb CEO Robert McKinley, it costs credit card companies money to replace you as a customer. If you tell them you’ll switch companies unless you get a lower rate, it may work.
“It’s worth the call, and it may save you the hassle of changing credit cards,” McKinley says. If they won’t lower your APR, find a company that will.
Consider taking out a low-interest loan to pay off credit card debt. According to McKinley, if you’re a home owner, you can borrow money against your house in the form of a home equity loan. Such a loan gives you tax deductibility and a low interest rate.
Look for alternative credit card providers, such as credit unions and community banks. There are 5,000 credit unions in the U.S. that have attractive pricing. The Credit Union National Association can help you find a credit union in your area.
Know your rights. According to the National Consumer Law Center’s publication, Surviving Debt, it is illegal for a debt collector to inform your employer or neighbors about your debt, call you late at night or at work or engage in any other form of unfair harassment.
Check your credit rating and make sure it’s accurate. If you’ve missed payments in the past, your credit history is bound to have some blemishes. But inaccurate information will only worsen the situation. One of these three credit bureaus will have your history: Experian (1-888-EXPERIAN); Equifax (1-800-997-2493); and TransUnion (1-800-916-8800). You can also order reports online.
And the warnings:
Surviving Debt recommends avoiding for-profit counseling services, since nonprofit organizations are available for nominal fees. You should know that some of the counseling groups are funded by the credit card companies. They may advise against filing for bankruptcy, even if that could be your best option.
Surviving Debt also warns to steer clear of “payday” loans and other short-term loans that come with exorbitant interest rates.
Finally, the publication recommends avoiding credit repair agencies. Most of them will make promises they can never keep, or do what you could easily do yourself for free. According to Robert McKinley, “All credit repair agencies are rip-offs.”

Arnold Diaz joined ABCNEWS’ 20/20 in 1995 after establishing his reputation as one of the leading consumer and investigative reporters in the country during his 22 years at WCBS-TV in New York City.

Credit Card ‘Protection’
There’s yet another useless service being pitched these days — over the phone and via mail — that experts say you should be wary of: credit card protection.
Scare tactics are often used to sell this protection service, which is supposed to cover you for losses from unauthorized charges made on your card due to theft or fraud. Costing up to $200 per card, credit card protection is completely unnecessary the Federal Trade Commission says. “Consumers are not liable for any unauthorized charges over $50,” says Jodie Bernstein of the FTC, “and with many card companies even waiving the $50, it’s an idea whose time has come and gone.”
In fact, the FTC has recently cracked down on several companies using misleading pitches to sell this service. The agency has advice to help you recognize and avoid credit card protection fraud.
Be wary of promoters who:
tell you that you are liable for more than $50 of unauthorized charges on your credit card account;
claim that you need credit card loss protection because computer hackers can access your credit card number and charge thousands of dollars to your account;
warn that a computer bug could make it easy for thieves to place unauthorized charges on your credit card account;
claim or imply that they are calling from “the security department” and want to activate the protection features on your new card.

Quelle: http://www.abcnews.go.com/onair/2020/diaz000628.html

Essenz:

Die Privathaushalte in den USA sind total überschuldet. Wie soll da das Konsumentenvertrauen wachsen bzw. wie sollen die Verbraucher zu noch höhere Konsumausgaben verleitet werden ? Wenn sie gerade einen Großteil Ihres Geldes an der Nasdaq verloren haben ? Wenn der durchschnittliche amerikanische Haushalt nur umgerechnet 6500 DM für schlechte Zeiten zurückgelegt hat ( Schweizer 33.000, Japaner 165.000) ? Wenn in den Medien über eine Kündigungswelle bei Hightech Firmen berichtet wird und jeder Ami immer Angst um seinen Arbeitsplatz haben muß (soziale Sicherungssicherungsysteme fehlen weitgehend) ?

The Answer is quite simple. I don`t know !!!!

, Fry.

P. S. :

Greenspan: Es handelt sich nur um eine kurzzeitige Korrektur, wenn das Konsumentenvertrauen nicht stark absinkt.

[Mandrella]

Saturday February 17, 7:36 am Eastern Time

Street to Sing `Happy Days Here Again`??

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Faster than a speeding bullet, the much-feared recession
may just whiz by and things will be looking up again for the world`s richest economy.
That`s the big story from a leading New York research firm.

The nation`s growth slowed between the summer and end of 2000, and it has since
rebounded nicely, says the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Time to break out the champagne or the case of beer? Perhaps.

``Based on the tentative signs from four weeks of data and if the economy can keep it up for a month or two, then we
may be able to dodge the recession bullet,`` says Lakshman Achuthan, the institute`s managing director.

GREENSPAN`S ECONOMICS TEACHER

The research firm says its Weekly Leading Index (WLI), which was developed by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan`s former economics teacher, Geoffrey H. Moore, is emitting recovery signals.

Moore, who taught at New York University, was also known as the ``Father of the Leading Economic Indicators`` (LEI),
a monthly gauge that forecasts trends in the economy three to six months in advance. It was developed for the U.S.
Commerce Department.

The big advantage of the WLI, which dates back to the late 1980s, is that it gives a snapshot of what`s happening now
in the economy, instead of what went on a month or so ago.

The WLI is saying the recession slammed the economy and lifted off in the last six months of last year.

``It`s a great index for a time like now, when people need a quick read of what is happening to the economy,`` says
Achuthan, ``In fact, the WLI forecast the last recession in 1990 in real time.``

Indeed, Greenspan, who gets paid to worry about the economy, this week was more upbeat than a month ago,
stressing the odds were low that the economy will sink into recession, though he projected a major slowdown.

``In addition to the possibility of a break in confidence, we don`t know how far the adjustment of the stocks of consumer
durables and business capital equipment has come,`` the Fed chief told the Senate Banking Committee.

The central bank also made a downward revision in its forecast for this year`s growth to between 2 and 2.5 percent
from a year earlier. Its previous forecast was for growth of up to 3.75 percent.

The institute`s index, which is updated every Friday on the firm`s Web site (http://www.businesscycle.com), flagged a
peak in the economy in June 2000, as the indicator reached a high of 125.3. The contraction in growth continued into
December with the WLI sliding to 119.0. But the good news is that by early January 2001, the index jumped to 122.0
and it has been on a four-week rising streak. By the first week of February, the WLI moved up further to 124.0.

The research firm says the WLI is a step forward in monitoring economic conditions. It takes in the monthly LEI and
applies today`s instant information technology to give a quick read on such things as American consumers` confidence
level.

RECESSIONS NOT ALWAYS WHAT THEY SEEM

Recessions can be tough to figure out. Often, the experts haven`t been able to know how deep the economy was in
recession until it was in the middle of one.

The WLI, which can signal turning points in business cycles quickly, can spot a recession some three months ahead
of the LEI because it is more frequently updated, the institute says.

``At a time like this when we are all trying to figure out where the economy is going -- a soft landing or a recession --
the outcome may be decided right now, which makes it important to have a quick read,`` Achuthan says.

The components in the WLI perked up right after the Fed`s first interest-rate cut on Jan. 3 and consumers reacted with
more vigor to the second rate reduction on Jan. 31. The central bank will again be in the center stage of this high
drama featuring the world`s largest economy when the Fed`s policy makers next meet on March 20.

``WLI has a longer effective lead than the LEI at 83 percent of business cycle peaks and 60 percent of business cycle
troughs,`` the firm says.

The stuff that goes into the mix of the Weekly Leading

Index: The nation`s money supply, and stock and bond mutual funds. The purpose of using stocks and bonds is to get
a reading on how rich people feel -- the so-called wealth effect.

Another ingredient is The Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute Materials Price Index, a
commodity index that is sensitive to the industrial business cycle.

The WLI also reflects the spread between U.S. Treasury and corporate bonds so that when the spread widens, it
suggests uncertainty on Wall Street while a narrowing points to less nail-biting.

Mortgage applications and weekly jobless claims also go into the index`s recipe.

Achuthan says the WLI suggests that the economy was at a major crossroads after growth contracted from June to
December 2000.

The clinical description of a recession is two or more quarters of declines in the Gross Domestic Product, which
measures of the value of all goods and services. The average recession lasts 10-1/2 months. One of the worst
lingered for 16 months between 1974-75 because it was a contagion that slammed not only the United States but also
the global economy.

The economy lost a lot of altitude all of a sudden last year because business managers ignored the negative vibrations
about the economy, figuring that the economic expansion, which was in a record 10th year, would go on and on. The
results of their over-optimism were bloated inventories as consumers put on the brakes and companies cut back on
spending on new technology.

EXCESSES AND RECESSION

``Recessions are born out of excesses,`` Achuthan says. ``And, there was this absurd sense that under the ``New
Economy,`` demand for high tech would continue to increase forever and that there was nothing cyclical about capital
investments by companies.``

What`s happening is that the free market economy is wringing out these excesses through the cyclical process.

But many companies that use technology to run their businesses appear to be doing a great job of reducing their
inventories of unsold goods. And, the huge job layoffs that have been announced clearly show that the companies are
slowing their production rate to meet the reduced level of consumer demand.

The Commerce Department reported the value of inventories inched up just 0.1 percent to $1.221 trillion in December
after a jump of 0.3 percent in November, which was actually revised downward from a previously reported 0.5 percent
rise.

The other good news is that any recession has been confined to manufacturing, which is a sector of the economy that
accounts for just 20 percent of the U.S. jobs market. The more important services sector, which is still holding up well,
generates a whopping 80 percent of the jobs.

The bottom line: The United States is in a healthy position, and the service industry`s dominance should provide a
healthy cushion against a nasty recession.

So while former NYU student Greenspan says ``growth may have stalled,`` the index created by Moore, his one-time
professor who went on to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, shows the economy may be out of the rough.

Stay tuned.

[fry]

Quelle ?

, Fry.

[Mandrella]

In der Meldung steht "Reuters". Gefunden habe ich sie auf finance.yahoo.com.