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[Kostolany4]

Tapping out of natural gas

Since Hurricane Katrina swamped a significant portion of the nation`s natural gas production, leading to government predictions of sky-high home heating costs this winter, policymakers are talking about the need to find more gas outside the disaster corridor. But U.S. natural gas production is already approaching its limits. A new geological assessment by the Potential Gas Committee, a volunteer group of experts from industry, government, and academic institutions, finds that the energy industry is barely uncovering enough new natural gas in the United States to make up for what the nation is consuming each year. In the biennial report, the committee estimates that the country`s natural gas resource base is now 1,119 trillion cubic feet (TCF), down 0.7 percent from the last measurement two years ago.


Some resources are expanding, according to the group, which is sponsored in part by the big electric utility organization the American Gas Association. More natural gas can be recovered from shale and other deep underground formations, for example, on account of technology improvements. But those increases are almost entirely offset by the 38 TCF in additional gas the nation has consumed since 2002.

There`s still plenty of natural gas in the United States. The problem is, much of it is out of reach. Since the most accessible gas fields have already been tapped, the industry will have to dig ever deeper wells that cost more money. Parts of Alaska are brimming with gas–but there are no pipelines ranging from the gas-rich regions to the lower 48. And there`s a federal moratorium on drilling into the known resources on both coasts of the country.

That means that the Gulf of Mexico will continue to be the "biggest player" in the business as far out as 2025, says John Curtis of the Colorado School of Mines, director of the Potential Gas Committee. The Gulf contains 26.2 percent of the nation`s future natural gas resources and 34.1 percent of the resources in the lower 48 states. In the future, says Curtis, harsh weather and other factors will pose "significant challenges" to keeping production up in this region. The bottom line: higher natural gas prices for the indefinite future.

[Kostolany4]

White House fears natural gas shortages


BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) - Senior Bush administration officials touring the Gulf Coast area devastated by Hurricane Katrina expressed concern Tuesday about possible shortages of natural gas, saying that the region`s production may not recover for months.

Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said there is less known about the damage to the natural gas supply system than about the effect on crude oil production. He said in addition to possible pipeline damage, the hurricane also shut down gas processing facilities on-shore.

``The great concern is about natural gas,`` Bodman told reporters as he flew to Louisiana from Houston.

Interior Secretary Gale Norton, who accompanied Bodman, said that 90 percent of the Gulf oil platforms ``will be capable of production by the end of the month.`` But she said damage to on-shore facilities is expected to keep oil production down.

Norton said that 58 percent of Gulf oil production remains shut down, as does 38 percent of the region`s natural gas production.

``But there is more concern about gas because we don`t have an international market`` that the country could rely on for additional supplies as it does with oil, she said.

Last week, the Energy Information Administration estimated that natural gas prices would soar this winter because of the hurricane, including increases as much as 71 percent in parts of the Midwest.

Bodman and Norton were to visit the government`s Strategic Petroleum Reserve facility near Baton Rouge. The government is already supplying oil to some refineries from the reserve on a loan basis.

Later the two Cabinet secretaries were to tour an Eon Mobile refinery near Baton Rouge that escaped damage from the hurricane but had to scale back production because of the shortage of crude oil. The refinery has since resumed production using SPR supplies.

Bodman and Norton met with senior executives from two dozen energy companies Monday evening in Houston. The executives said they needed government help in arranging for housing for thousands of employees as they struggled to return the Gulf`s oil and gas system to full operation, he said.

http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/business/12…

Sieht dramatisch böse aus für den Winter. Schon im letzten Winter hatte sich der Gaspreis von 4.50 auf 9 Dollar verdoppelt, war dann aber im Lauf des Sommers auf 6 Dollar zurückgefallen. Für diesen Winter werden noch weit höhere Preise befürchtet, da die Gasproduktion im Golf immer noch zu 37% reduziert ist. Viele ärmere Menschen werden das Gas nicht mehr bezahlen können.

[Kostolany4]

Gaspreis in USA zieht irre an!

Da sind unsere 14 Prozent Steigerung Peanuts dagegen.

[Statistix]

Kann dem nur voll zustimmen. Sage schon länger bislang ungehört das NG viel interessanter ist als Öl. Aber an sich ists ja imemr ein gutes Zeichen, wenn wenige Leute sich bei den richtigen Werten rumtreiben...

[Kostolany4]

Preis für Natural Gas erklimmt neues ATH: 13,60

Die Heizungsrechnung ggü. letztem Winter verdoppelt sich in USA! Ein Wahnsinn!

[hastrubal]

Halloooo-bin rel. Jungbörsianer, folglich Mir wollte letzte Woche ein Vermittler unter hohen Kosten und Gewinnbeteiligung Optionen für Natural Gas verkaufen-was ja offensichtlich in der Sache nicht schlecht wäre.
Kann mir mal bitte jemand sagen, wie ich da direkt rankomme. Lacht nicht zu laut, ich lern das auch nochDanke im voraus

[Kostolany4]

@hastrubal
Als Jungbörsianer freu dich auf den Bullenmarkt der Öl- Gas- und Uranaktien, und lass die Finger von allen Optionscheinen. Ein Rat von einem alten Börsenhasen, der es aufgegeben hat, sich von Banken behumsen zu lassen.

Zum Gas:

Nearly 79 percent of the typical gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut in Tuesday, the U.S. Minerals Management Service reported.

Das kann noch heiter werden. Natural Gas ist inzwischen bei 14,00. Wenn der Winter früh einbricht, sehen wir locker die 20.

[oilrig]

USD 14,70

[Kostolany4]

@oilrig
Bei mir öffnet sich deine Grafik nicht

Daher noch diese Grafik:

[Statistix]

hastrubal. Am Besten einen Gasförderer mit niedrigen Kosten hohen long life reserves und Potential die Förderung den Winter über noch zu Steigern. Von den Großen meiner Meinung nach UPL oer CHK. Von den Kleinen ist mein absoluter Favorit CZE.V. Gruß Stat

[hastrubal]

@kostolany4
Vielen Dank, schönen Abend und fette Gewinne

[Kostolany4]

Oil surges on US winter forecast
From correspondents in New York
October 26, 2005

WORRIES about a cold snap hitting the US northeast prompted a flurry of buying activity on commodity markets overnight, pushing up oil prices by more than three per cent.

New York`s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December, jumped $US2.12 to close at $US62.44 a barrel.
In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for December delivery rallied $US2.00 to $US60.24 per barrel in closing deals.

The market was already in a technical rebound when traders got a jolt (Ruck, Stoß) from forecasts calling for snow and icy conditions hitting parts of the US.

Although oil prices have retreated from recent highs, analysts said the market remained sensitive to any shift in demand or supply. Any unusually cold weather could increase demand for heating oil.

"We are starting to see a concern about a long and cold winter and that`s played into the market," said Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading.

"They are expecting maybe a snowstorm in the northeast and some colder temperatures in the midwest in the next couple of days," said Mr Flynn.

The same weather jitters drove natural-gas futures up over 10 per cent to a record close overnight. The November contract rose $US1.334 to close at $US14.338 per million British thermal units -- the highest-ever closing level for a front-month contract.

Mr Flynn said reports of a a power outrage in a refinery contributed to the bullish trend, with the market still on edge about the recovery from hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Light sweet crude prices had slumped to $US59.15 in New York on Friday, the lowest level for three months, before ending that day higher.

Oil has lost more than 16 per cent of its value since hitting a historic high of $US70.85 per barrel on August 30, a day after Hurricane Katrina battered oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Stadtwerke Leipzig erhöhen erneut Gaspreise zum 1.12.05. Gesamterhöhung 2006 gegenüber 2004: 25 Prozent.
Dies ist gleichzeitig eine Richtigstellung. In einem anderen Posting hatte ich bei der Prozentzahl "gemerkelt".

[Kostolany4]

Mike Schäfer von WealthDaily rät eindringlich, jetzt in Gasaktien zu investieren!

Hier sein (kostenloser) WealthDaily Börsenbrief (Auszug)

Hi, Mike Schaefer here.

I`ve identified and have recently recommended 7 natural gas stocks for immediate purchase. The companies are small, but have experienced massive rallies this year. As a whole, the entire group is up +284% for the year.

But with gas supplies stretched to the max, I believe these stocks - as a group – will gain as much as 1,900% by 2007.

Three of the stocks trade below $5.50, one trades below $3 and the other three trade between $15 and $20. So the upside potential with these 7 is massive.

Now before I tell you anymore about these stocks, which I`m calling the Seven Sisters of Natural Gas, let me explain why you should listen to me. And as I predicted all those years ago, the price of natural gas has gone through the roof. In fact, ever since the release of my report, natural gas prices have increased 658%, going from $1.85 per mcf to $14 per mcf.

Take a look at a chart of natural gas: People are speechless about the price of natural gas. And the US government is warning that some consumers could see an increase in their monthly heating bill of 50%... maybe even 75% this winter alone!

But guess what?

The situation is worse than anybody is willing to admit in public. But some, who are looking at the same data I`ve been analyzing for years, are beginning to sound the alarm.

Media Gets Wind of Natural Gas Crisis

On October 28, Vancouver`s main rag, The Globe and Mail, published an article titled The Real Gas Crisis.

It began...

"Forget oil. Natural gas is the true energy crisis." Then continued.

Production is now on the wane, according to the Canadian Gas
Association. Proven (though not potential) gas reserves are in
precipitous decline. They peaked at 99 trillion cubic feet in 1984, but
fell to 56.6 tcf by the end of last year.

At Canada`s current rate of consumption and export (gas exports now
exceed domestic consumption by about 40%), that`s enough to last
about nine years."

And then comes the shocking truth.

"North American demand is expected to increase to 34 tcf a year by
2012 from about 27 tcf in 2003, according to some forecasts. Even
with high production, cheap gas, like cheap oil, is gone. Gas prices
could fall to $7 or $8 per million BTUs, but they will never go back to
$2."

Some people get it. Like I do.

So here`s my no B.S. prediction: Over the course of the next 12 to 24 months, I think natural gas is headed to $20 to $25 per mcf.

To give you an idea of what that`ll mean to your monthly heating bill, if you were paying $165 a month during the winter months in 2004, you`ll now be paying anywhere from $365 to $450 a month.

That bill is going to sting, and sting hard for many homeowners. And I`m sorry that I can`t do anything about it except recommend you turn down the thermostat and wear heavy wool sweaters. But I can do the next best thing: I can show you how to profit from investing in surging natural gas prices.

If my prediction is right (that natural gas is going above $20 per mcf soon), small natural gas stocks with current production and significant reserves are going to the moon.

[Looe]

# 13 Hallo Kostolany4

Darf man fragen, welche 7 Firmen das sind, die M.Schaefer
empfiehlt ?

Gruß Looe

[Kostolany4]

@Looe
Die Aktien nennt Mike in seinem kostenlosen Börsenbrief leider nicht, weil er natürlich seinen kostenpflichtigen Brief "Pure Energy Report" (kostet 485 Dollar/Jahr) verkaufen möchte.

Mit ein bißchen Recherche bekommt man die wichtigsten Gasaktien Kanadas aber sicher heraus. Z.B. gibt es Branchenlisten bei www2.barchart.com. Klicke da auf "Sectors".

Diese Liste kommt z.B. bei "Oil and Gas Drilling":
ARENA RESOURCES
TODCO
GEOGLOBAL RESOU
PARKER DRILLING
K C S ENERGY IN
JED OIL
TRANSMERIDIAN E
PIONEER DRILLIN
ATLAS AMERICA I
PETROLEO BRASIL
NGAS RESOURCES
HELMERICH PAYNE
ENSCO INTL INC
PATTERSON-UTI E
NOBLE CORP
W& T OFFSHORE I
TRANSOCEAN INC
DIAMOND OFFSHOR
HILAND PARTNERS
UNIT CP
GLOBALSANTAFE C
GREY WOLF INC
WHITING PETE CO
OCEANEERING INT
ROWAN COS INC
TRI-VALLEY CORP
NABORS INDS INC
ATWOOD OCEANICS
BILL BARRETT CO
BOIS D`ARC ENER
NORSK HYDRO ADR
ENERPLUS RES FD
PENGROWTH EGY U


Vielleicht hilft dir auch Happyinvestor weiter.

[Kostolany4]

Die besten Branchen lt. www2.barchart.com

sortiert nach Kennzahl "Weighted Alpha"
+197.10 Top 100 Stocks
+61.85 Sporting Activities
+54.71 Oil & Gas Drilling Explor
+53.40 Oil & Gas Refining Mrktng
+49.74 Oil & Gas Equipment Svcs
+47.35 Home Improvement Stores
+45.39 Health Care Plans
+45.05 Long-Term Care Facilities
+42.55 Specialty Eateries
+42.52 Healthcare Info Svcs
+40.87 Medical Practitioners
+40.66 Independent Oil & Gas
+37.74 Foreign Regional Banks
+37.28 Farm Construction Machnry
+36.19 General Contractors
+35.63 Heavy Construction
+35.38 Gold

Wie man sieht, belegt die Öl- und Gasbranche die Plätze 2,3 und 4.

[Looe]

# 15 + 16 Hallo Kosto

Vielen Dank für die Infos. Werde mich dort mal einlesen.

Gruß Looe

[Kostolany4]

Fulminanter Ausbruch des Gaspreises durch den Wintereinbruch !

Sehen wir diesen Winter die 20 ?

[Kostolany4]

Gas supply crisis may be in the pipeline for UK

HE MAY have had to dash into a side-room to evade the wrath of Greenpeace, but Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, finally blurted out the inevitable: an energy crisis is looming and it needs to be addressed.

Energy was "back on the agenda with a vengeance", he announced. "Round the world you can sense feverish rethinking. Energy prices have risen. Energy supply is under threat."

The debate will rage for many a month, and will most likely be dominated by the need or otherwise for nuclear power. But in the here and now, there is a more immediate crisis at hand. Out in the North Sea, there are thousands of engineers and technicians working 12-hour shifts to supply gas to the UK`s homes and businesses. This year, the process leaves less margin for error than ever before.
However cold you think it is here, it is freezing out there. But there can be no shirking of duties. Each platform produces a tiny percentage of the current UK demand of 100 billion cubic metres of gas a year, a figure that is double the levels of 1990. Every single operation needs to function correctly.

The DTI`s concern is that we are in the early stages of a chilly season hit by three major challenges - all emerging at the same time.

First, the UK has become a net importer of gas - increasingly relying on overseas production to meet domestic needs.

Second, gas prices have spiked to all-time highs at every hint of a temperature dip. Last week`s cold snap saw the spot price hit £1.70 a therm - up from a broad average of just 25-30p days earlier.

Third, the news has been compounded by fears that we could be facing a so-called one-in-ten or even a one-in-50 winter - the coldest since 1962-63. If that happens, demand for gas will go through the roof.

The UK`s loss of exporter status comes as a result of the maturing North Sea basin, which is unlikely to yield any more major oil and gas finds – despite industry reports of a near-record investment of £11 billion in 2005.
Unfortunately, the drop in home-grown supply has not coincided with a switch to a higher volume of imports. The Bacton interconnector in East Anglia is a fine example. It is currently subject to an upgrade that will double its capacity for imported gas, but is not set to be completed until next year.

In all, there are seven upgrades to pipelines, connectors and terminals underway around the UK - but none will be completed in time to ease the nerves for this winter`s gas supply. The pipelines are set to be in place by 2007, while projects built to receive shipments of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) - are aiming for 2008-12.

So, how did we mistime it so spectacularly? David Odling, gas and commercial issues manager at oil and gas body UKOOA, admits that the industry "should have known" of the problem around 1999 or 2000 - when UK production reached its peak.

But he adds: "The problem is that you sometimes can`t see the top of the mountain until you are standing on top of it." He adds - reasonably - that the planning process in the UK has become so tortuous that it was impossible to rush through the projects.

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=2325402005

Die Parallelen sind verblüffend. Man kannte die Fakten bereits vor 6 Jahren aber unternommen hat man nichts! Genau dasselbe passiert heute mit dem zur Neige gehenden Öl - weltweit.

Politiker aller Länder: schlaft weiter!

[M.Haze]

Hi Kosto!

Wieder mal ein berauschender Thread, danke.
Wenn es so aussieht, bin ich in Gas zu wenig drin.
Darum: was sind Deine favorisierten Gasstocks auf Sicht der kommenden Gas(-und Öl)krise?

mit bestem Gruß,
mh

[Looe]

# 20 Kosto4

Auch von mir ein Dankeschön für diese Arbeit. Bin ebenfalls in Gas-stocks unterinvestiert und gespannt auf Deine Antwort auf n# 20.

Gruß Looe

[Kostolany4]

@M.haze und Looe



Gazprom 903276 - ist der Chart nicht wunderschön ?



Ein weiterer bedeutender Gasförderer ist Encana. Encana ist aber auch im Ölsandbereich tätig.

Weitere Gasfirmen sind in #10 und #15 genannt.

[oilrig]

Erdgas ab Henry Hub (USA) hat gerade mit Karacho die 15 USD-Marke geknacht- bezogen auf den Heizwert in Öl sind dies fast 80 USD je Faß