Analyse NOOF - New Frontier Media - US Börsenbrief Hammeronline.com - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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"
Double Your Money on this Well-Known
Secret of the Internet Age
When the Lights Finally Go Out on the Internet Liquidity
Bubble, this Company Will Be Left Flickering in the Dark...
Online porn – it`s fun for the whole family

Game over, man. On August 24, 2000, carorder.com ran out of gas. They fired 100 people out of 140. On the same day there were no more takers for auctions.com. It`s closing its doors at the end of the month. Going once...

Dot-com day dreams are drying up and blowing away. Copera.com couldn`t cope. The rumor is that there is only one guy left to sweep the dust off of their servers. And just last week, More.com laid off 25% of its employees. Nomore.com?

If you need further evidence of the dot-com plague of frogs — look no further than anglestreet.com, an online venture capital firm. According to fuckedcompany.com, a site specifically devoted to tracking doomed dot-coms as they spiral down into oblivion, they gave their employees options. The option of coming to work and not being paid — or finding another job. I wonder how their portfolio of startups is faring.

The boom town rats
The speculative Internet boom, now clearly dead, was a manifestation of the pre Y2K liquidity bubble (more about that later). I`m not going to sit here and tell you that I didn`t take my shots at riding that tiger.

Because I certainly did, scoring massive gains in places (VCAT up 260 percent, VERT plus 160 percent, Navidec up 73 percent) and taking big hits in others. In the end I`m a speculator, not a seer. You play the odds, maximize your winnings, and minimize your loses.

You do this in a number of ways. Not least of which is to understand that the market is made up of buyers and sellers. In general, when the herd is buying, you want to be selling. And when they are selling, you have to be ready to buy value for pennies on the dollar.

The New Oldest Economy
The well-known secret of the Internet economy is that some companies do make money. Not the large gobs of manna from heaven money we saw in the spring, but they are pulling in a sustainable profit nonetheless. These are unique content providers like suck.com and smokingbarrel.com. However, if you want the big, iron-geared, smokestack pumping, cyborg money-machine on the online world, you`ve got to look to porn.

Like school in the summer time — no class
H. L. Mencken once said, "No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public." A wise man, to be sure.

Media Metrix says that nearly one in three of the 76 million Americans who used the Internet in July went to a porn site.

Estimates produced by Jupiter Communications estimates that pay-per-view and subscription-based porn site revenue were US$176 million in 1999. Standard & Poor`s says that Internet pornography will become a US$3 billion industry by 2003.

But that`s nothing compared to the money being made from digital television pay-per-view (PPV), which I will tell you about in a minute.

When in Rome
You might think that these sites are run out of basements, garages or Wall Street brokerage houses — some seedy, damp, moldy place where the sun never hits, and fish-belly white, slack-jawed Orcs fester around a Thinkpad. But no, porn has entered the postmodern economy and gone corporate, with one eye on the digital age and the other on shareholder value.

Playboy has been public since the 70s, building its brand on airbrushed nubile nakedness. Now it`s close enough to the main stream to function as the site of a Democratic fundraiser.

That alone might be enough to raise the ever-present puritanical pulse of our country, but this is America. We must take it farther. And so we have raunch — pumped up in megabytes and spilled forth from digital cisterns to the denizens of the world.

Don`t get me wrong. I`m all for it. In fact, the recent dot-com die-off coupled with an egregious lawsuit could make it the buy of the year.

A frontier without borders
New Frontier Media Inc. (NOOF:NASDAQ Small Cap) is the world`s only NASDAQ-listed pure play on cutting edge debauchery. NOOF sells smut online, by cable and on the airwaves via satellite TV.

The company owns a number of subsidiaries and makes its money through four revenue streams: subscription/pay-per-view TV, Internet content, Internet services, and payment services. You may have heard of their branded outlets — TeN, Pleasure, ETC, Extacy, True Blue, and GonzoX.

What`s more, the company owns more than 1,300 adult-oriented Internet domains that funnel traffic to 27 e-commerce sites selling sexually explicit photos and video.

In the last four quarters NOOF had US$51,520 million in sales, a growth of 32 percent over the preceding four quarters. The company has a P/E of 50, trades at a little more than 2 times sales and 18 times cash flow. Not extremely undervalued when compared to some of the more traditional media outlets with similar market caps.

See Dick die
Dick Clark Productions (DCPI:NASDAQ) has a market cap of US$112 million, compared to NOOF`s US$103 million. DCPI trades at 1.44 times sales and has a P/E of 23.

The difference is that NOOF is on the ramp up, while Dick refuses to die.

NOOF Nookie
Those of you who are among my vast circle of long-time and loyal readers will know that I believe there are serious profits to be made in the broadband and digital TV arena.

In fact, the major catalyst for share price appreciation will be digital television combining with the Internet to bring mass-produced hedonism into the home. Your erotic pleasure, brought to you courtesy of the mass media — doing for sex what McDonalds did for hamburgers. Over six billion served.

Over the past quarter, NOOF has been building out its television component. In February, 1998 it bought the adult satellite television assets of Fifth Dimension and became a leading provider of adult programming under the Extasy, True Blue, and GonzoX networks.

In August of the same year, NOOF launched the TeN erotic network, aimed at cable multiple system operators and direct broadcast satellite providers. A year ago, NOOF launched Pleasure, a 24-hour adult soft porn network that that competes directly with Playboy and Spice.

That`s what NOOF sells. But since their distribution is broadband, they decided to acquire Interactive Telecom Network, Interactive Gallery, Inc. and 90% of Card Transactions, Inc. last October.

ITN is a web management company that handles dedicated lines, Web hosting and the like. IGallery is a middleman for porn; buying and selling content to other sites and to the end consumer. CTI is a payment service that will supply Internet billing solutions.

I want my DTV
The adult category now accounts for more than 15 percent of the nearly US$2 billion pay-per-view television market, and it`s growing fast. Hard core Fortune 500 companies like AT&T, DirecTV Inc., Time Warner and Starpower Communications Inc. are teaming up with NOOF to sell porn to the masses.

Standard & Poor`s estimates the adult pay-per-view industry took in US$349 million in 1999, with industry insiders predicting the sector will hit US$500 million in 2001.

With broadband being the buzzword of the new millenium, the cable industry has invested some US$30 billion over the last several years to rewire itself with fiber-optic lines, making broader and quicker distribution of sex videos a reality. Fiber can spit out hundreds of channels, whereas copper and aluminum carry only 50. That means as much PPV as you can hold.

It`s a volume business
NOOF expects to sell US$100 million worth of adult PPV next year. In the fiscal year ending March 31, NOOF expects the company to nearly triple its pretax earnings on revenue of about US$75 million.

NOOF can sign up the big cable providers because companies like AT&T make more money from adult movies than they do from regular Hollywood fare.

Get this: the average price of smut is US$7.95, compared to about US$4 for a regular movie. Furthermore, the cable or satellite company receives only 45 percent of the lower fee, compared to 80 percent for the porn. The sultans of smut can make this deal because Hollywood films take years to make and cost as much as US$200 million, while shooting an adult film only takes US$30 to US$40K.

The money shot
The fastest growing segment during the June quarter, over the past year was the cable/dbs television revenue which jumped from US$0.5 million in the June quarter of 1999 to US$2.9 million this year. Total revenue for the quarter jumped from US$10.7 million to US$14.2 (33% jump) million while the cost of sales remained flat around US$7.7 million, up just 200K from the previous year.

The company is making money as well as growing the top line. Operating income for the Company increased to US$0.7 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2000 from an operating loss of US$0.6 million for the quarter ended June 30, 1999. The improvement in operating income is derived from an increase in revenue and gross profit margins in the Subscription/PPV TV Group and Internet Content Provider Group (porn content middleman).

The lawsuit
New Frontier Media, as I mentioned, is involved in a lawsuit dating back to 1998. It seem that the two folks now running the company were bleeding cash a few years ago, and got behind on some payments to Loral Skynet. Their broadcasts were in danger of being cut off.

A third party, Mr. Lipson, entered the picture and allegedly offered US$1.2 million for 70 percent of the company. After he paid the Skynet debt, NOOF had him ejected from the property.

NOOF has stated that this lawsuit has no merit and that the deal is unenforceable. The company has returned US$690,000 to Mr. Lipson and maintains that it does not owe the rest. The suit will be settled by September 1, in Boulder, Colorado.

I`m not a member of the jury, but it seems to me that in the worst-case scenario, controlling interest in NOOF goes to a savvy businessman, or the remainder plus interest is paid back to Mr. Lipson. In the best case NOOF is off the hook.

That said, it is a jury trial and anything can happen. NOOF did win a motion (later overturned) limiting the damages to a maximum of US$10 million. Regardless, at these prices it`s worth the gambit.

So there you have it
What you have here is a market leader — the biggest pure play on Internet and PPV adult entertainment in the world. With revenue growth at over 33 percent over the past few years, and earnings rising by more than 100 percent, yet all the while costs remain well under control. With the advent of digital TV, the company believes it will boost its revenues going forward and report US$75 million in the FY ending March 31, 2001. That`s up from US$48 million reported last year.

The bottom line is even more impressive, pulling in an EPS of 0.30 versus 0.20 the year before, and earnings of US$15 million. Given the current price to sales of 2.45 and projected US$100 in sales next FY, I would give you a three quarter price target of US$11.77. That`s a conservative projected medium term gain of 135%.

One can easily make the argument that it deserves to trade more in line with its historical P/S ratio of more than four, and that once the lawsuit is resolved it will do so. Regardless, I don`t think you can go wrong betting on the lasciviousness of humanity.

Buy NOOF under US$5.

Contact: 5435 Airport Blvd., Suite 100 Boulder, CO 80301
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REVENUE (in thousands of U.S. dollars)
1998 1999 2000 20001
JUN 479 10,710 10,710 14,242
SEP 248 11,158 11,158 —
DEC 436 9,350 12,240 —
MAR 482 8,413 13,880 —
TOTALS 1,645 39,631 47,988 14,242
EARNINGS PER SHARE (units in U.S. dollars)
1998 1999 2000 2001
JUN -0.050 -0.030 -0.030 0.030
SEP -0.050 0.010 0.010 —
DEC -0.030 -0.020 0.000 —
MAR -0.310 -0.150 0.040 —
TOTALS -0.440 -0.190 0.020 0.030
Q1 2001 beat all of last year!
Note the past six quarters of revenue increase and the solid jump in EPS.
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dazu noch der Artikel von vorgestern (ebenfalls von hammeronline.com )
"
The New Frontier: To Boldly Go...

New Frontier Media, Inc. (NOOF:NASDAQ) has nowhere to go but up. The electronic distributor of adult entertainment intends to file post trial proposals and possibly motion for the appeal of a recent lawsuit. In the case titled Lipson vs. New Frontier Media Inc. et al., a jury found the company liable for claims that appeared in a 1998 letter of intent between the two parties.

Lipson was allotted $10 million on his breach of contract claim, along with a few smaller settlements for actual and punitive damages. New Frontier Media has mentioned appealing the case, but for now states that the verdict will "in no way interrupt the service we provide to our customers, nor will it impact the leadership position we have worked hard to earn in our industry."

A leader in the field of adult entertainment, New Frontier Media delivers content through television via pay-per-view and paid cable/satellite networks. They also distribute material on the Internet with subscription-based, members-only web sites and maintain many technological Internet services.

New Frontier Media, Inc. sold off from $6.00 to $3.50, reaching a historic 52-week low. Looking forward in the market, with the $10 million settlement priced in, this appears to be a good entry point. The company plans to continue business as before, so operations will be unimpeded. The full article on this story was mailed out yesterday, so be sure to check your mailbox over the next few days.

In the meantime, consider staking your claim on a piece of the New Frontier (Media, that is).
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October Red Herring Details How Business Gets Done in Asia Magazine also Includes a Candid Interview with Amazon.com`s Jeff Bezos and an In-Depth `Briefing` on Next-Generation Wireless

SAN FRANCISCO, Sep 13, 2000 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- In its October "Special
Asia Issue," Red Herring magazine probes deeply into the newest rising star in
the global economy. But, as the magazine`s editors point out, Asia is much more
than a single story with a single economy. The issue goes on sale at newsstands
on Sept. 19.

The comprehensive Red Herring package not only covers what it`s like to do
business in a host of Asian markets, but also what`s expected before you can
even think about doing business there. While China is openly flirting with
capitalist ideals in order to make its mark on the global high-tech explosion,
India is banking on its domestic smarts as it`s sought out by VCs interested in
the host of Internet startups there. Singapore is trying to counteract a history
of intense government censorship of all media while attempting to position
itself as "the hub to Asia." In the issue`s "Dirty Work" story, subtitled, "How
to get business done in one of the most corrupt countries in the world," Red
Herring`s editors write that before anything can be accomplished within
Indonesia, one is required to work with local "fixers."

Amazon.com`s Jeff Bezos on Fulfillment Costs

The October issue`s "Forward" section includes a forthright interview with Jeff
Bezos, Amazon.com`s founder and CEO, in which he is challenged about the online
bookstore`s newest, seemingly bizarre ventures.
(http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue83/mag-bezos-83.html)" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue83/mag-bezos-83.html) Bezos insists that
Amazon.com is very comfortable with its cash position, and says that fulfillment
costs as a percentage of sales are down to 15 percent from 16 percent in Q4
(1999). "We`d like to see them in the low teens by the end of the year," he
notes. The company`s fulfillment costs, he adds "are up from 10 percent from Q4
in 1998 (because) we`ve built a new distribution center network that isn`t fully
utilized, and we`re carrying all these product categories."

Special Report Examines Health Care and the Net

A 37-page Special Report on "Health Care and the Net" in the latest Red Herring,
details the new technologies and solutions being introduced to help put the
uniquely paperbound industry on a more interactive course. The idea, as outlined
in the report, is that technology might be able to make health care both more
beneficial to patients and more profitable for the investors.

`Briefing` Examines Next-Generation Wireless

Red Herring`s "Briefing" section, "Broadband Unwired," include 13 separate
stories on next-generation wireless technology, plus a sidebar on studies of
potential brain damage resulting from cell phone usage produced in Canada, the
United States and Sweden. Balance that thought with the Goldman Sachs estimate,
quoted in "Broadband Unwired," the introduction to the Briefing section, that by
2003 there will be 1 billion wireless phones in use. The section includes
articles on auctioning and the 3G (third generation) mobile spectrum, a Q&A with
the Federal Communications Commission`s David Farber, a story on optical and
radio-frequency wireless as possible solutions to "the last mile problem,"
another story on how native Americans are using wireless communications to solve
their telecom problems, and a report on how Sweden may well be the next boom
area for wireless.

Stocks to Watch


Along with Red Herring`s regularly followed private and public company profiles,
the "Stocks to Watch" column features Commerce One (an Ariba e-procurement and
exchange software competitor), PeopleSoft (the enterprise resource planning
software company), and New Frontier Media. Any reference to "soft" and "hard" in
relation to New Frontier Media refers to the content, not the medium, since
they`re an adult content delivery giant. While slightly embarrassed about the
inclusion of the Boulder, Colo.-based company, Red Herring points out that New
Frontier owns 1,300 domain names, six television networks, its own ISP, an OC24
switching facility in Los Angeles, and that it has relationships with Time
Warner, Excite@Home and AT&T. It also is a high-tech stock on the move.

About Red Herring Magazine

Since 1993, Red Herring magazine has been essential reading for business leaders
using technology to build or expand their businesses. Its coverage provides a
forward-thinking, analytical look at technology companies and industries. The
unique perspective of its veteran editors and reporters is based on years of
experience reporting on and watching the business of technology. Red Herring`s
coverage of technology-driven business is timely, analytical and, most of all,
opinionated and experienced.

About Red Herring Communications

Red Herring Communications (http://www.redherring.com) is an integrated media
company that provides strategic technology business information to the leaders
of technology driven businesses. Founded in 1993 to create and publish a
national magazine, the company has evolved into the leading source of insider
perspective on technology and business. Today, Red Herring Communications
produces, distributes and broadcasts its unique blend of news, commentary and
analysis online, in print and through events. These media venues provide
coverage of technology business news and events that is opinionated, predictive
and actionable. Red Herring Communications is privately held and is based in San
Francisco.

SOURCE Red Herring Magazine


CONTACT: Julia Hand, 415-431-0811, [e-mail], or Barry J.
Zusman, 212-319-8383, [e-mail], both of Plesser Associates for Red
Herring Magazine

URL: http://www.redherring.com
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(C) 2000 PR Newswire. All rights reserved.