Biotech-Sector-Downgrade! Mitdenken! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[woernie]

hallo biotech-gemeinde,

ich wuerde raten die stop-loss oder mentale ausstiegsmarken zur gewinnsicherung etwas enger zu ziehen! die allgemeine marktlage beginnt sich zu entspannen. in dem masse wie techs und i-nets wieder fluegel bekommen und anziehen wird sicher auch cash aus den gut gelaufenen bios abgezogen. ausserdem, nur am rande ein sector downgrade von briefeng.com! ruhig mal lesen! kann ja nicht schaden.

gruss woernie

Most Recent Sector Rating Upgrade/Downgrade

Medical-Biotech Reviewed Nov 01 Downgraded
This was our report on 10/20: Though most of the biotech stocks are well off their early year highs, the group held up remarkably well during the recent market turmoil. One reason the group fared better than most tech stocks (for example) is that even off their highs, biotechs are up big on the year. Consequently there was little tax-related selling. The industry also benefits from exciting fundamentals, as we are still in the very early stages of what promises to be an era of tremendous advancement in the biotech/pharmaceutical space. At present, there are more drugs/therapies in the later stages of clinical development than at any time in history. Driven by advances in technology that have made it faster and cheaper to discover new drugs/therapies; a more favorable political and regulatory climate; the aging of the population; and the adoption of the collaborative business model, the biotech industry is positioned for explosive growth in the years ahead. To take part in that growth investors need to be mindful of a few things. First, the sector is very volatile and not particularly conducive to short-term trading. Second, it will take years before many of these companies see the fruits of their labors pay-off in meaningful earnings. Finally, selectivity is very important. Briefing.com maintains that investors should stick with those companies that have ample cash holdings, a strong pipeline of drugs in the later stages of development, a proven management team, and numerous collaborative agreements with well-matched pharmaceutical companies. That said, investors still need to use common sense. The group tends to run hot and cold. When hot the valuations can quickly become unrealistic. Consequently, we advise against chasing the stocks when they`re hot and waiting to add positions during one of the group-wide retreats. One area that had been hot been has been cooling off recently is the pick-and-shovel biotech companies - those that provide the tools for drug/therapy discovery. Though "safer" in that these companies - a) stand to benefit no matter which drug development companies are more successful and b) have much more visible earnings - they lack the tremendous growth potential of a firm like Genentech (DNA). Given the very competitive nature of the field, margins will also start coming under pressure sooner, not later. As such these stocks can`t command the valuations of the drug discovery outfits. And until they have come down further Briefing.com would shy away in favor of the traditional biotech companies. On balance, we are maintaining our slight outperform rating.

A couple of developments have occurred in recent sessions to alter our short-term view, however. First the momentum crowd in the tech sector was gutted when Nortel Networks (NT) reported disappointing results. Why would weakness in the optical networking/storage stocks impact biotech? All are favorites of the momentum crowd. With excess being squeezed out of the relative strength leaders in tech, how much longer will biotech stocks - most of which are years away from profitability - hold up? Briefing.com also concerned by fact that group leader Amgen (AMGN) stumbled badly after reporting disappointing results and by way in which group leaders are laboring to move higher... As we noted in the late October report, the group tends to run hot and cold... Due to the above developments, Briefing.com contends that the group`s near-term risks have increased... To reflect this change, we are lowering our rating one notch to 3, though if the group starts to roll over it losses could mount quickly.


Stocks:Abgenix (ABGX), Affymetrix (AFFX), AururaCelera (CRA), Biosciences (ABSC), Biogen (BGEN), Cell Genesys (CEGE), Cephalon (CEPH), Chiron (CHIR), Cor Therapeutics (CORR), Gene Logic (GLGC), Genentech (DNA), Genzyme (GENZ), Human Genome Sciences (HGSI), ICOS Corp (ICOS), IDEC Pharmaceuticals (IDPH), Idexx (IDXX), Immunex (IMNX), Incyte Pharmaceuticals (INCY), Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIP), Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND), Millennium (MLNM), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), Onyx (ONXX), Orchid BioScience (ORCH), Protein Design Labs (PDLI), SuperGen (SUPG), Vical (VICL).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[voltaire01030]

oder es fließt in neue Biotechnologien, wie sie Genescan mit seinen Chips anbietet ....