Steht Ariba vor der nächsten Akquisition ?! Adexa .....??? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Celentano]

....laut mehreren Analystenkommentaren! Nämlich das IPO das eigentlich noch kommen sollte, wird wahrscheinlich bevor es gelistet wird von Ariba gekauft. Zudem kann es zu einem Bruch der Alliance Ariba und i2 kommen, da es streitigkeiten untereinander gibt, die gleichzeitig auch den Kurs drücken.

Lest selbst (Quelle: www.yahoo.com):

The b-to-b chatter circuit is once again talking up a split in the partnership between Ariba and i2 Technologies, and this time, industry and financial analysts are expecting both companies to cement their rivalry with acquisitions.

In a rather bold report issued this week, AMR Research predicts that i2 (ITWO) and Ariba (ARBA) will finally divorce by the end of the year. The rift will start when i2 acquires a b-to-b e-commerce software maker that will, undeniably, put it in direct competition with Ariba. Not much new here.


But here`s the kicker. Ariba executives will then counter with a purchase of their own -- gobbling up a rival supply chain software firm that will allow the company to kick some sand in i2`s face. The likely target: Adexa, a privately held supply chain software vendor hoping to pull the trigger soon on an initial public offering.


"Ariba and i2 are like Bill and Hillary Clinton -- no one understands how or why they stay together, but somehow they do," says Kevin O`Marah, an AMR analyst and co-author of the report. "We`re just waiting for the divorce because it`s inevitable."


Demise predicted


Observers have been predicting the demise of the partnership between i2 and Ariba -- brought together by IBM (IBM) and dubbed "the Alliance" -- ever since it was formed in March. Chartered to build large-scale Internet marketplaces, the Alliance has landed about 25 customers and remains intact, despite all the negative talk.


Ariba executives couldn`t comment because the company is releasing fiscal first quarter financial results next week, but a spokeswoman insists the partnership is strong. Tom Cooper, senior vice president at i2, calls AMR`s report "highly speculative, if not unfactual."


So, why all the speculation about a breakup? Because i2 (think Bill) has made aggressive moves to slowly, but surely, invade Ariba`s turf, which is software that lets companies purchase supplies over the Net. I2 has the ability to offer customers a full b-to-b package without needing to bring Ariba into the deal. The company does this through separate partnerships with companies like BroadVision (BVSN) and RightWorks, the acquisition of ec-Content, and improvements to its own software.


And Ariba (a.k.a. Hillary) is vulnerable for another important reason: The changing dynamics of the b-to-b market. I2`s core supply chain management software allows companies to use the Internet to form closer bonds with suppliers and other partners. Simply put, a company can use i2 software to build private, online marketplaces that allow it to easily exchange information with its partners about inventory levels, production schedules and customer demand for their products.


Private the way to go


Private marketplaces and supply chain software are the future of b-to-b, most analysts believe, overshadowing simple Internet procurement -- Ariba`s core strength. In fact, i2 has gone out of its way to crow loudly about its private marketplace deals with customers like Siemens and Caterpillar (CAT) -- deals struck sans Ariba.


Even Ariba`s big rival, Commerce One (CMRC), sees the way the b-to-b road is bending, using a close alliance with German software maker SAP (SAP) to get into private marketplace and supply chain management deals.


"Ariba has got to make a move to get out from under i2`s thumb," says O`Marah. "And we believe the company will do this by acquiring a supply chain software company."


Another source, a Silicon Valley dealmaker very close to Ariba, confirms. "All the talk about the Alliance being strong is just for public consumption," he says. "Privately, this partnership is not working. Ariba executives are very smart, and they`re working on a solution."


The Ariba-Adexa nexus


Which leads us to speculate that Ariba is considering a deal to acquire Adexa. It`s not idle gossip. The two companies have held talks in recent months, both about a potential partnership and an acquisition, O`Marah says. The current status of those discussions is not known, and Ariba and Adexa executives are not talking.


"A deal between Ariba and Adexa makes a lot of sense," says Tim Klein, a supply chain analyst with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray. "Ariba would be a much stronger company with its own supply chain capabilities. Adexa could succeed on its own, but as a small, niche player. It could really benefit from the sales and marketing muscle of Ariba."


Price is always a hurdle with any deal, but Adexa seems to fit within Ariba`s budget. In August, the company filed to sell 4 million shares of its stock to the public at $12-$14 per share. With just over 42 million shares outstanding, the IPO would value Adexa at around $550 million.


"Ariba`s sinking stock price likely precludes it from making any billion-dollar acquisitions, but I`d expect to see some deals in the $500 million to $700 million range, so Adexa is well within the target," says Klein.


Adexa executives would not comment, citing quiet period restrictions of their IPO.


Of course, Klein cautions that an acquisition of Adexa by Ariba may never happen. There may be other potential Ariba partners out there, including Manugistics (MANU) or WebPlan, or none at all.


The only thing most b-to-b observers agree upon, it seems, is that the Alliance`s days are coming to an end. If and when that does happen, the rivalry between the two companies will really intensify, as each goes after the same customers.


Which company -- Ariba or i2 -- will have the edge?


Each has its supporters, and the current trends seem to favor i2, but b-to-b, life like, is full of surprises. Just take a peek at what`s happening in Washington, D.C, with the soon-to-be-former First Couple: Senator Hillary is taking her turn in the political spotlight, while "private citizen" Bill spends time on the rubber chicken circuit.


Maybe Ariba gets the last laugh.



good trades

[HSM]

05.01. 12:49

Ariba, i2: Trennung ?

Die Kooperation zwischen i2 Technologies und Ariba ist laut dem AMR Research Analyst Kevin O`Marah in Gefahr. So sei laut den Aussagen des Analysten die Kooperation durch Streitereien und Rivalitäten geprägt und würde bis Ende des Jahres auseinanderbrechen. O´Marah vergleicht die Kooperation zwischen Ariba und i2 mit der Ehe zwischen Bill und Hillary Clinton: keiner weis, warum die beiden noch zusammen sind, aber sie sind es.

Doch habe laut den Aussagen von O´Marah Ariba einen Übernahmekandidaten im Visier. Adexa ist ein nicht an der Börse notierter SCM-Hersteller. Sollte eine solche Akquisition durchgeführt werden, wird die Allianz zwischen i2 und Ariba auseinanderbrechen.

© BörseGo.de


Quelle: http://195.94.69.233/news/?show=9511