Revolutionäre & Co. - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hallo,
wer Interesse hat, sich über Revolutionäre in der Biotechnologie/Genomics-Industrie (Celera/HGSI), aber auch über andere Werte wie Dell Comp. oder RFMD zu informieren, soll auch meinen Thread "Könige und Revolutionäre" im Board "Könige" durchlesen.
Vielleicht interessiert es den einen oder anderen...

[Rabbithole]

Hi Wahrheit,

ich habe die Reaktion auf Clintons Rede auch mit Verwunderung beobachtet. Wer nicht wirklich weiß, warum er eine Aktie kauft, der weiß auch nicht warum er sie verkauft.
Schade nur, daß Deine Fachkenntnis hier ein bisschen untergeht. Ich habe jedenfalls die Gunst der Stunde genutzt, um Celera und HGSI nachzukaufen.
Freue mich über weitere gute Beiträge von Dir zu dem Thema.

Rabbithole

[Die_Wahrheit]

"rabbithole",
ich möchte anmerken, daß diese ganze Genomics-Industrie auch mit Risiken behaftet ist. Ein amerikanischer Analyst sagte ganz offen, daß dies alles ein "risk investment" sei. Sicherlich gibt es aber auch Riesenchancen und wenn diese ganze Indusrie blüht, dann wird HGSI die Microsoft dieser Industrie sein.
Aber: man muß immer wieder mit Rückschlägen rechnen - eine Celera könnte in den nächsten Monaten sogar unter 100 USD fallen, wenn die Euphorie für diese ganze Industrie nachläßt. Das sollte man sich immer bewußt sein.

Hier stellvertretend für die gesamte Industrie die Risiken beim Kauf der HGSI-Aktie (wobei man bei der Aufzählung dieser Risiken nicht erschreckend sollte - das ist normal für die Verhältnisse in den USA, da sich der Vorstand ansonsten immer den Vorwurf gefallen lassen muß, daß er nicht über die Risiken aufgeklärt hat und die Aktionäre dann mit Rechtsklagen drohen könnten, falls die Aktie abstürzen sollte):


"March 17, 2000

HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES INC (HGSI)
Annual Report (SEC form 10-K)

the FDA has comments or questions, it places the studies on clinical hold and the questions must be answered to the satisfaction of the FDA before the initial clinical testing may begin.
In order to commercialize pharmaceutical products, we or one of our collaborators must sponsor and file an investigational new drug application and be responsible for initiating and overseeing the clinical studies to demonstrate the safety and efficacy and, for a biologic product, the potency, which are necessary to obtain FDA approval of any such products. For our or collaborator-sponsored investigational new drug applications, we or our collaborator will be required to select qualified investigators (usually physicians within medical institutions) to supervise the administration of the products, and ensure that the investigations are conducted and monitored in accordance with FDA regulations and the general investigational plan and protocols contained in the investigational new drug application. Clinical trials are normally done in three phases, although the phases may overlap. Phase I trials are concerned primarily with the safety and preliminary effectiveness of the drug, involve fewer than 100 subjects, and may take from six months to over a year to complete. Phase II exploratory trials normally involve a few hundred patients, but in some cases may involve fewer. Phase II trials are designed primarily to demonstrate effectiveness in treating or diagnosing the disease or condition for which the drug is intended, although short-term side effects and risks in people whose health is impaired may also be examined. Phase III confirmatory trials are expanded clinical trials with larger numbers of patients which are intended to gather the additional information for proper dosage and labeling of the drug and demonstrate its safety and effectiveness. Clinical trials generally take two to five years, but may take longer, to complete. Recent regulations promulgated by the FDA may shorten the time periods and reduce the number of patients required to be tested in the case of certain life-threatening diseases, which lack available alternative treatments.

The FDA receives reports on the progress of each phase of clinical testing, and it may require the modification, suspension, or termination of clinical trials if an unwarranted risk is presented to patients. If the FDA imposes a clinical hold, clinical trials may not recommence without prior FDA authorization and then only under terms authorized by the FDA. The investigational new drug application process can thus result in substantial delay and expense. Human gene therapy products (which is one of the areas in which we are seeking to develop products) are a new category of therapeutics. Because this is a relatively new and expanding area of novel therapeutic interventions, there can be no assurance as to the length of the clinical trial period, the number of patients the FDA will require to be enrolled in the clinical trials in order to establish the safety, efficacy and potency of human gene therapy products, or that the clinical data generated in these studies will be acceptable to the FDA to support marketing approval.

After completion of clinical trials of a new drug or biologic product, FDA marketing approval must be obtained. If the product is regulated as a biologic, the Center for Biological Evaluation and Research will require the submission and approval, depending on the type of biologic, of either a biologic license application or, in some cases, a product license application and an establishment license application before commercial marketing of the biologic. If the product is classified as a new drug, we must file a new drug application with the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research and receive approval before commercial marketing of the drug. The new drug application or biologic license applications must include results of product development, preclinical studies, clinical trials and manufacturing information. The testing and approval processes require substantial time and effort and there can be no assurance that the FDA will accept the new drug application or biologic license applications for filing and, even if filed, that any approval will be granted on a timely basis, if at all. In the past, new drug applications and biologic license applications submitted to the FDA have taken, on average, one to two years to receive approval after submission of all clinical data. If questions arise during the FDA review process, approval can take more than two years. Notwithstanding the submission of relevant data, the FDA may ultimately decide that the new drug application or biologic license application does not satisfy its regulatory criteria for approval and require additional clinical studies. In addition, the FDA may condition marketing approval on the conduct or specific post-marketing studies to further evaluate safety and effectiveness. Rigorous and extensive FDA regulation of pharmaceutical products continues after approval, particularly with respect to manufacturing, which must be done in compliance with cGMP, reporting of adverse effects, and advertising, promotion, and marketing. Discovery of previously unknown problems or failure to comply with the applicable regulatory requirements may result in restrictions on the marketing of a product or withdrawal of the product from the market as well as possible civil or criminal sanctions. In addition, the FDA may condition marketing approval on the conduct of specific post-marketing studies to further evaluate safety and effectiveness.

If a developer obtains designation by the FDA of a biologic or drug as an "orphan" drug for a particular use, the developer may request small grants from the federal government to help defray the costs of qualified testing expenses in connection with the development of such drug. Orphan drug designation may be granted to drugs for rare diseases generally, a disease or condition that affects populations of fewer than 200,000 individuals in the United States, including many genetic diseases. The first applicant who has obtained designation of a drug for a particular use as an orphan drug and then obtains approval of a marketing application for such drug for the particular use is entitled to marketing exclusivity for a period of seven years, subject to certain limitations. Essentially, this means that no other company can market the same orphan drug for the use approved by the FDA for seven years after the approval.

Orphan drug designation does not convey any advantage in, or shorten the duration of, the regulatory approval process. Although obtaining FDA approval to market a product with an orphan drug designation can be advantageous, there can be no assurance that the scope of protection or the level of marketing exclusivity that is currently afforded by orphan drug designation and marketing approval will remain in effect in the future.

Moreover, several areas in which we or our collaborators may develop products involve relatively new technology and have not been the subject of extensive product testing in humans. The regulatory requirements governing these products and related clinical procedures remain uncertain. In addition, these products may be subject to substantial review by foreign governmental regulatory authorities which could prevent or delay approval in those countries. Regulatory requirements ultimately imposed on our products could limit our ability to test, manufacture and, ultimately, commercialize our products.

We are currently conducting clinical development activities with respect to MPIF-1 and KGF-2. We are conducting preclinical trials with respect to other proteins and expect to continue to conduct preclinical and clinical studies with respect to additional potential products, as permitted under our collaboration agreements. Accordingly, we are beginning to incur significant expenses with respect to our preclinical and clinical development activities. We cannot assure you that the preclinical or clinical trials will lead to our successful development of any products. As further studies are conducted, we may choose to abandon particular projects which we might have previously considered promising.

Other. Ethical, social and legal concerns about gene therapy, genetic testing and genetic research could result in
additional regulations restricting or prohibiting the processes we or our suppliers may use. Federal and state agencies, congressional committees and foreign governments have expressed interest in further regulating biotechnology. More restrictive regulations or claims that our products are unsafe or pose a hazard could prevent us from commercializing any products.

In addition to the foregoing, state and federal laws regarding environmental protection and hazardous substances, including the Occupational Safety and Health Act, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act, affect our business. These and other laws govern our use, handling and disposal of various biological, chemical and radioactive substances used in, and wastes generated by, our operations. If our operations result in contamination of the environment or expose individuals to hazardous substances, we could be liable for damages and governmental fines. We believe that we are in material compliance with applicable environmental laws and that our continued compliance therewith will not have a material adverse effect on our business. We cannot predict, however, how changes in these laws may affect our future operations.


SOURCES OF SUPPLY


We currently depend on a single supplier, Applied Biosystems, a division of PE Corporation (formerly Perkin-Elmer Corporation), to provide all our gene sequencing machines and some of the chemicals we require in connection with our gene sequencing process. PE Corporation has recently created Celera Genomics Corporation, an entity that is sequencing the human genome and could potentially be one of our competitors. We have not experienced problems in obtaining either gene sequencing machines or chemicals in a timely manner. While other gene sequencing machines are available, we do not believe that other machines are as efficient as the machines we currently use. We have entered into certain agreements with PE Corporation that provide for an established pricing structure with respect to our purchase of selected chemicals, although such pricing is subject to change if we do not meet certain minimum purchase requirements, and in the case of one enzyme, provides that we will purchase and PE Corporation will sell a stated quantity at a fixed price. We order these chemicals by submitting purchase orders at the time of purchase. Gene sequencing machines or chemicals may not remain available in commercial quantities at acceptable costs. If we are unable to obtain additional machines or an adequate supply of chemicals or other ingredients at commercially reasonable rates, our ability to continue to identify genes through gene sequencing in accordance with our current business plan would be adversely affected.

We have contracted for the manufacture of therapeutic proteins for preclinical testing and clinical development. We will be dependent on third party manufacturers for our supply of therapeutic proteins until we are able to produce sufficient therapeutic proteins at our leased facility which was substantially completed in February 1999. Any failure or delay in supplying therapeutic proteins could affect the timing of preclinical tests and clinical trials and could delay submission of products for regulatory approval.


MANUFACTURING AND MARKETING


We have developed in-house capabilities for the production and purification of recombinant proteins for use in our research activities, but do not have any manufacturing facilities licensed to supply materials suitable for clinical trials or for commercial sale, or any experience in manufacturing materials suitable for clinical studies or for commercial sale. We depend on third parties to comply with current good manufacturing practices, known as cGMPs, and other regulatory requirements and to deliver materials on a timely basis. These third parties may not perform adequately. Any failures by these third parties may delay our development of products or their submission for regulatory approval.

During 1997 and 1998, we designed and the Maryland Economic Development Corporation constructed a process development and manufacturing facility for the preparation of quantities of our proteins for clinical studies. The facility comprises approximately 84,000 square feet, with an additional 43,000 square foot expansion currently under construction, and is located in the Johns Hopkins Belward Research Campus near our offices and research laboratories. Construction on the original facility was substantially completed in February 1999. The facility has been designed to allow for the production and purification of multiple recombinant proteins. We intend to use the facility for production of preclinical and clinical supplies of our therapeutic proteins and for process development and scale-up. The FDA must validate and inspect this facility to determine compliance with cGMP requirements. A delay in validation of the facility could delay or increase the cost of clinical studies and could delay submission of our products for regulatory approval. We may not be able to successfully establish manufacturing capabilities and manufacture our products economically or in compliance with cGMPs and other regulatory requirements. We have entered into a long-term lease arrangements with the Maryland Economic Development Corporation for the facility and the expansion.

Our long range plan is to establish additional manufacturing capabilities to allow us to meet our full commercial manufacturing requirements. While we intend to expand our manufacturing capabilities, we may contract with third party manufacturers or may develop products with partners and take advantage of such partner`s manufacturing capabilities. We may not be able to successfully establish manufacturing capabilities or manufacture our products
economically or in compliance with cGMPs and other regulatory requirements.

We do not currently have any products that can be marketed. In the future, we generally expect to rely on collaborators or on third parties with whom we may contract to market any products that we may develop. Our collaborators or other third parties may not be successful in marketing our products. To date, we have collaborated with SmithKline Beecham, Schering-Plough and others. However, we also may co-promote or retain U.S. marketing rights to certain of our products. If we decide to market products directly, we will incur significant additional expenditures and commit significant additional management resources to develop an external sales force and implement our marketing strategy. We may not be able to establish a successful marketing force.


EMPLOYEES


As of February 25, 2000, we had 505 full-time employees, of whom 427 were in research and development, including 81 scientists holding doctorate degrees. We anticipate hiring approximately 50 additional employees during the next six months. The additional staff is expected to include research and development staff, process development and manufacturing personnel, and medical and regulatory affairs staff. None of our employees is covered by a collective bargaining agreement and we consider our relations with our employees to be good.


FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR BUSINESS


There are a number of important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those that are indicated by forward-looking statements. Those factors include, without limitation, those listed below and elsewhere herein.


BECAUSE OUR BUSINESS STRATEGY IS UNTESTED, WE DO NOT KNOW WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO COMMERCIALIZE ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS AND GENERATE REVENUE


We do not know whether we can implement our business strategy successfully because we are in the early stages of development. We try to find as many genes as possible and then use this information to develop potential products. We use automated high speed gene sequencing technology to:

- rapidly identify and obtain proprietary rights to a substantial number of genes; and

- select from those genes promising candidates to develop compounds for treating and diagnosing human diseases.

Other companies target particular diseases and then try to find cures through gene-based therapies. Nobody has tested our strategy. If our strategy does not result in the development of products that we can sell profitably, we will be unable to generate revenue.


IF WE ARE UNABLE TO IDENTIFY GENES WITH POTENTIAL VALUE, THEN WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER OUR INVESTMENT IN OUR GENE DISCOVERY EFFORT


Our success depends on our ability and that of our collaborators to determine which genes have potential value. To select potential product candidates, we invest significant time and resources to isolate and sequence full-length genes, test and analyze the genes, and determine their functions. We devote an increasing portion of our resources to identifying and developing proteins for the treatment of human disease. We have recently made substantial capital expenditures and hired additional personnel to foster these activities. Before we can commercialize a product, we must extensively test the product in the laboratory and complete several phases of study of its effects on humans. We incur expenses for testing and study before we know whether we can sell a product successfully. We will incur additional costs to continue these activities. Ultimately, we may not be successful in identifying genes which we can develop commercially.


BECAUSE WE ARE AN EARLY STAGE COMPANY, WE DO NOT KNOW WHETHER WE CAN DEVELOP OUR BUSINESS AND ACHIEVE PROFITABILITY


We expect to incur continued and increasing losses and may not become profitable. We are in the early stages of development, and it will be a number of years, if ever, before we are likely to receive revenue from product sales or royalties. We expect to continue to incur substantial expenses relating to research and development efforts. We anticipate that we will increase these efforts as we focus on the laboratory testing and studies in humans that are required before we can sell a product. The development of our products requires significant further research, development, testing and regulatory approvals. We may not succeed in developing products that will be commercially successful and that will generate revenue in excess of the cost of development.



BECAUSE OUR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS DEPEND ON NEW TECHNOLOGIES, WE DO NOT KNOW WHETHER OUR EFFORTS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL


To date, companies have developed and commercialized relatively few products based on genes. Commercialization involves risks of failure inherent in the development of products based on innovative technologies and the risks associated with drug development generally. These risks include the possibility that:

- these technologies or all or any of the products based on these technologies will be ineffective or toxic, or otherwise fail to receive necessary regulatory clearances;

- the products, if safe and effective, will be difficult to manufacture on a large scale or uneconomical to market;

- proprietary rights of third parties will prevent us or our collaborators from marketing products;

- third parties will market superior or equivalent products; and

- we may not be able to obtain gene sequencing machines using new and superior technology which could render obsolete the gene sequencers we use.


BECAUSE WE HAVE LIMITED EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING PRODUCTS, WE MAY BE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN OUR EFFORTS TO DEVELOP PRODUCTS


Our ability to develop and commercialize products based on proteins and, in the future, other products to which we have retained commercial rights, will depend on our ability to:

- develop products internally;

- complete laboratory testing and human studies;

- obtain necessary regulatory approvals;

- deploy sales and marketing resources effectively; and

- enter into arrangements with third parties to provide these functions.

Although we have started human studies with respect to potential products, we have limited experience with these activities and may not be successful in developing or commercializing these or other products.


BECAUSE CLINICAL TRIALS FOR OUR PRODUCTS WILL BE EXPENSIVE AND THEIR OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN, WE MUST INCUR SUBSTANTIAL EXPENSES THAT MAY NOT RESULT IN ANY VIABLE PRODUCTS


Conducting clinical trials is a lengthy, time-consuming and expensive process. Before obtaining regulatory approvals for the commercial sale of any products, we must demonstrate through preclinical testing and clinical trials that our product candidates are safe and effective for use in humans. We will incur substantial expense for, and devote a significant amount of time to, preclinical testing and clinical trials.

Historically, the results from preclinical testing and early clinical trials have often not been predictive of results obtained in later clinical trials. A number of new drugs have shown promising results in clinical trials, but subsequently failed to establish sufficient safety and efficacy data to obtain necessary regulatory approvals. Data obtained from preclinical and clinical activities are susceptible to varying interpretations, which may delay, limit or prevent regulatory approval. In addition, regulatory delays or rejections may be encountered as a result of many factors, including changes in regulatory policy during the period of product development.

Three of our products, MPIF-1, KGF-2 and VEGF-2, have entered clinical trials. Patient follow-up for these clinical trials has been limited. To date, data obtained from these clinical trials has been insufficient to demonstrate safety and efficacy under applicable FDA guidelines and are not sufficient to support an application for regulatory approval without further clinical trials. Clinical trials conducted by us or by third parties on our behalf may not demonstrate sufficient safety and efficacy to obtain the requisite regulatory approvals for MPIF-1, KGF-2 and VEGF-2 and or any other potential products. Regulatory authorities may not permit us to undertake any additional clinical trials for our product candidates.

Completion of clinical trials may take several years or more. The length of time generally varies substantially according to the type, complexity, novelty and intended use of the product candidate. Our commencement and rate of completion of clinical trials may be delayed by many factors, including:

- inability to manufacture sufficient quantities of materials for use in clinical trials;

- slower than expected rate of patient recruitment or variability in the number and types of patients in a study;

- inability to adequately follow patients after treatment;

- unforeseen safety issues or side effects;

- lack of efficacy during the clinical trials; or

- government or regulatory delays.


THE CLINICAL SUCCESS OF VEGF-2 IS UNCERTAIN


Vascular Genetics announced that it will not enroll or treat additional patients in its clinical trials of VEGF-2 in response to an FDA hold on testing. Four clinical trials of VEGF-2 had been ongoing. Vascular Genetics announced the completion of three of these trials because enrollment and treatment were complete. In the fourth study, a majority of the enrollment target had been enrolled and treated. During the hold period, Vascular Genetics will provide the FDA with results which are being compiled from the clinical trials, in addition to providing measurements of the amount of the VEGF-2 protein in patient blood samples using new assay methodology which has been developed. Vascular Genetics must receive approval of the FDA before the fourth trial can be completed or additional trials initiated.

In addition to the factors affecting clinical trials noted above, the trials of VEGF-2 are being conducted with patients who have failed conventional treatments or for which no conventional treatment exists. During the course of treatment, these patients can die or suffer adverse medical effects for reasons that may or may not be related to our products. Deaths in the patient population for the VEGF-2 trial did occur, in both active and placebo groups, and Vascular Genetics has reviewed the relevant data regarding these patients and will provide an analysis of the reasons for these deaths to the FDA. These adverse effects may affect the interpretation of the clinical trial results and the success of the trials. Further, as for most pharmaceutical drug products, later stage clinical trials may be extensive, expensive and time-consuming. Ultimately, VEGF-2 may not be approved for use in humans.


BECAUSE WE DEPEND ON REVENUE FROM OUR COLLABORATION PARTNERS, WE MAY NOT BECOME PROFITABLE IF WE LOSE THE REVENUE FROM ANY COLLABORATION PARTNER


To date, we have received substantially all our revenue from payments made under our collaboration agreements with SmithKline Beecham and, to a lesser extent, from other collaboration, option and licensing agreements. We expect that we will receive most of our revenue for the foreseeable future from payments under our existing collaboration agreements. Unless renewed, substantially all these collaboration agreements will expire in 2000 and 2001. We cannot assure you that these collaboration agreements will be renewed or that we will be able to enter into additional collaboration agreements. We may not receive expected milestone or royalty payments under our collaboration agreements. We may not become profitable in a timely manner, or at all, if our collaborators fail to:

- develop marketable products;

- obtain regulatory approvals for products; or

- successfully market products based on the genes we identify.


IF OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH ANY OF OUR COLLABORATORS PREVENTS US FROM ENTERING INTO OTHER COLLABORATIVE AGREEMENTS, THEN WE MAY HAVE LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND REVENUE GROWTH


Our collaboration agreements generally restrict our ability to enter into collaboration agreements with additional collaboration partners. Our collaborators may prevent us from obtaining the additional revenue and assistance that additional collaborators could provide. Because our existing collaboration partners may force us to rely on them, these partners may be able to exercise a greater degree of control over our business.


IF ONE OF OUR COLLABORATORS PURSUES A PRODUCT THAT COMPETES WITH OUR PRODUCTS, THEN THEY MAY HAVE A CONFLICT OF INTEREST AND WE MAY NOT RECEIVE THE MILESTONE PAYMENTS OR ROYALTY REVENUE THAT WE EXPECT


Each of our collaborators conducts multiple product development efforts. Our collaborators may pursue existing or alternative technologies instead of products they are developing in collaboration with us. Additionally, our collaborators may develop products that are similar to or compete with products they are developing in collaboration with us. If our collaborators pursue these other products instead of our products, we may be unable to achieve our payment milestones or our royalty revenue may decrease.


BECAUSE WE MAY DEPEND ON OUR COLLABORATORS AND OTHER THIRD PARTIES TO CONDUCT LABORATORY TESTING AND HUMAN STUDIES, WE MAY ENCOUNTER DELAYS IN OR LOSE SOME CONTROL OVER OUR EFFORTS TO DEVELOP PRODUCTS


We may rely in large part on our collaboration partners and third party research organizations to design and conduct our laboratory testing and human studies. If we are unable to contract for any necessary testing activities on acceptable terms, we may not complete our product development efforts in a timely manner. If we rely on collaborators and third parties for laboratory testing and human studies, we may lose some control over these activities and become too dependent upon these parties. Collaborators and third parties may not complete testing activities on schedule or when we request.


BECAUSE OF OUR SUBSTANTIAL INDEBTEDNESS, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO ADJUST TO MEET CHANGING CONDITIONS IN THE FUTURE


Our substantial leverage will have several important consequences for our future operations. For instance:

- we will dedicate a significant portion of our cash flow to pay interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness;

- we may be unable to obtain additional financing in the future for capital expenditures, acquisitions or general corporate purposes;

- we may be unable to withstand changing competitive pressures, economic conditions and governmental regulations; and

- we may be unable to make acquisitions or otherwise take advantage of significant business opportunities that may arise.


BECAUSE OUR STOCK PRICE HAS BEEN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE VOLATILE, THE MARKET PRICE OF OUR COMMON STOCK MAY BE LOWER THAN YOU EXPECTED


Our stock price has and the stock prices of other emerging and biotechnology companies have historically been highly volatile. During the past year, the market price of our common stock has been as low as $14.38 per share and as high as $231.00 per share. The market price of our common stock could fluctuate substantially because of:

- future announcements about our company or our competitors, including the results of testing, technological innovations or new commercial products;

- changes in government regulations;

- regulatory actions;

- announcements relating to healthcare reform;

- our failure to acquire or loss of proprietary rights to the gene sequences we discover or the products we develop;

- litigation; and

- public concern as to the safety of our products.

In addition, the stock market has experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that have particularly affected the market price for many emerging and biotechnology companies. These fluctuations have often been unrelated to the operating performance of these companies. These broad market fluctuations may cause the market price of the common stock to be lower than you expected.


BECAUSE MANY OF OUR COMPETITORS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES, THEY MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND COMMERCIALIZE PRODUCTS BEFORE US


We are in a race to identify, establish uses for and patent as many genes as possible and to bring to market the products we develop. Many of our potential competitors have substantially greater research and product development capabilities and financial, scientific, marketing and human resources. We believe that entities conducting genomic research have identified the majority of genes in the human genome and will identify virtually all these genes within several years. We face competition from entities using high speed gene sequencers to discover genes. We also face competition from entities using more traditional methods to discover genes related to particular diseases. We expect that competition in our field will intensify.

Our competitors include parties conducting research to identify genes and human genome research similar to or competing with our focus on gene discovery, including:

- institutes, such as those sponsored by the U.S. government and the governments of Great Britain, France, Germany and Japan;

- small laboratories associated with universities or other not-for-profit organizations;

- pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and

- government-financed programs.

These competitors may:

- succeed in identifying genes or developing products earlier than we do;

- obtain approvals from the U.S. FDA or other regulatory agencies for products more rapidly than we do;

- develop treatments or cures that are more effective than those we propose to develop; or

- acquire similar gene sequencing machines and engage in the automated sequencing of genes.

The other risks of competition include the following:

- research and development by others may make our products, or the products we and our collaborators may develop, obsolete or uneconomical;

- consumers may prefer existing or newly developed technologies to any product we develop; and

- other companies use the same gene sequencing machines we use, in some cases for business purposes that compete with our business.


IF PATENT LAWS OR THE INTERPRETATION OF PATENT LAWS CHANGE, OUR COMPETITORS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND COMMERCIALIZE OUR DISCOVERIES


The patent positions of biotechnology firms generally are highly uncertain and involve complex legal and factual questions that will determine who has the right to develop a particular product. No clear policy has emerged regarding the breadth of claims covered in biotechnology patents. There have been, and continue to be, intensive discussions on the scope of patent protection for both partial gene sequences and full-length genes. There have also been proposals for review of the appropriateness of patents on genes and partial gene sequences. The Patent and Trademark Office has recently proposed new guidelines on the written description and utility requirements for patents. The biotechnology patent situation outside the U.S. is even more uncertain and is currently undergoing review and revision in many countries. These proposals and other changes in patent laws in the U.S. and other countries may result in changes in, or different interpretations of, the patent laws which might allow others to use our discoveries or develop and commercialize our products.


IF OUR PATENT APPLICATIONS DO NOT RESULT IN ISSUED PATENTS, THEN OUR COMPETITORS MAY OBTAIN RIGHTS TO AND COMMERCIALIZE THE DISCOVERIES WE ATTEMPTED TO PATENT


Our pending applications covering full-length genes and their corresponding proteins may not result in the issuance of any patents. As of February 25, 2000, we had filed patent applications for:

- more than 7,500 human genes and their corresponding proteins; and

- all or portions of genomes of eight infectious microorganisms and one non-infectious microorganism.

As of that date, we had only 116 U.S. patents issued covering 91 full-length human genes. Our disclosures in our applications may not be sufficient to meet the statutory requirements for patentability in all cases. Additionally, our patent applications may cover many genes. As a result, we cannot predict what issues may arise in connection with our patent applications or the timing of the grant of patents with respect to genes covered by our patent applications.


BECAUSE PATENT APPLICATIONS FOR PARTIAL HUMAN GENE SEQUENCES MAY BE LEGALLY INSUFFICIENT, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO OBTAIN ISSUED PATENTS FOR MANY OF OUR PATENT APPLICATIONS, AND OTHERS MAY OBTAIN RIGHTS TO OUR DISCOVERIES


We have filed U.S. patent applications claiming more than 300,000 partial human gene sequences. The Patent and Trademark Office may not grant patents on these applications because they may be insufficient. These applications seek to protect partial human and non-human gene sequences, the full-length gene sequences that include the partial sequences, as well as derived products and uses. These applications do not contain any data from laboratory testing or human studies. Some court decisions indicate that disclosure of a partial sequence may not be sufficient to support the patentability of a full-length sequence. We believe that these court decisions and the uncertain position of the Patent and Trademark Office present a significant risk that the Patent and Trademark Office will not issue patents based on patent disclosures limited to partial gene sequences. Finally, we are uncertain about the scope of the coverage, enforceability and commercial protection provided by any patents issued on the basis of partial gene sequences.


IF INFORMATION ABOUT THE GENES WE DISCOVER IS PUBLISHED BY OTHERS BEFORE WE APPLY FOR PATENT PROTECTION, THEN WE MAY BE UNABLE TO OBTAIN PATENT PROTECTION, WHICH WOULD ENABLE OTHERS TO DEVELOP AND COMMERCIALIZE OUR DISCOVERIES


Washington University has identified genes through partial sequencing funded by Merck & Co. and has deposited those partial sequences in a public database. In January 1997, The Institute for Genomic Research, or TIGR, in collaboration with the National Center for Biological Information, disclosed full-length DNA sequences which are reportedly in excess of 35,000 sequences that were assembled from partial gene sequences available in publicly accessible databases or sequenced at TIGR. This public disclosure might limit the scope of our claims or make unpatentable subsequent patent applications on full-length genes we file.

In July 1994, we reached an agreement with TIGR and SmithKline Beecham to contribute a number of partial copies of DNA sequences to a database. Under the agreement, only academic scientists and researchers at non-profit institutions that sign agreements could access the database. In October 1996, TIGR notified us that it was terminating this agreement according to its terms, effective in April 1997. The termination of this agreement eliminated limits on publication of sequences in the database on that date. In addition, the termination eliminated previous restrictions on TIGR`s ability to publish sequence information. This publication may prevent us from obtaining patent protection for some genes in which we may have a scientific or commercial interest.


IF OTHERS FILE SIMILAR PATENT APPLICATIONS OR OBTAIN SIMILAR PATENTS, THEN THE PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE MAY DENY OUR PATENT APPLICATIONS OR OTHERS MAY RESTRICT THE USE OF OUR DISCOVERIES


Other companies or institutions may have filed patent applications or may file patent applications in the future which attempt to patent genes similar to our patent applications. Others have filed patent applications that cover genes for which we have filed patent applications, including applications based on our potential products. The Patent and Trademark Office would decide the priority of competing patent claims in an interference proceeding. Any patent application filed by a third party may have priority over patent applications we filed, in which event the third party may require us to stop pursuing a potential product or to negotiate a royalty arrangement to pursue the potential product.


IF OUR POTENTIAL PRODUCTS CONFLICT WITH PATENTS THAT COMPETITORS, UNIVERSITIES OR OTHERS HAVE OBTAINED, THEN WE MAY BE UNABLE TO COMMERCIALIZE THOSE PRODUCTS


Our potential products may give rise to claims that they infringe the patents of others. This risk will increase as the biotechnology industry expands and as other companies obtain more patents and attempt to discover genes through the use of high speed sequencers. Other persons could bring legal actions against us to claim damages or to stop our manufacturing and marketing of the affected products. If any of these actions are successful, in addition to any potential liability for damages, these persons may require us to obtain a license in order to continue to manufacture or market the affected products. We believe that there will continue to be significant litigation in our industry regarding patent and other intellectual property rights. If we become involved in litigation, it could consume a substantial portion of our resources.


BECAUSE ISSUED PATENTS MAY NOT FULLY PROTECT OUR DISCOVERIES, OUR COMPETITORS MAY BE ABLE TO COMMERCIALIZE PRODUCTS SIMILAR TO THOSE COVERED BY OUR ISSUED PATENTS


Issued patents may not provide commercially meaningful protection against competitors. Any issued patent may not provide us with competitive advantages. Others may challenge our patents or independently develop similar products which could result in an interference proceeding in the Patent and Trademark Office. Others may be able to design around our issued patents or develop products providing effects similar to our products. In addition, others may discover uses for genes or proteins other than those uses covered in our patents, and these other uses may be separately patentable. The holder of a patent covering the use of an invention as to which we have a patent claim could exclude us from selling a product for a use covered by their patent.


BECAUSE THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY FUNDED SOME OF OUR RESEARCH, IT MAY GRANT LICENSES UNDER OUR PATENTS THAT WOULD ENABLE OTHERS TO USE OUR DISCOVERIES


We identified a small percentage of sequences covered by our patent filings through research funded by grants from the U.S. Department of Energy. The Department of Energy has a statutory right to grant to other parties licenses under patents which may be issued based on research funded by the Department of Energy. The Department of Energy may exercise this right in the event of:

- lack of action on the part of the holder of the patent rights to achieve practical application of the invention or

- a need to alleviate public health or safety concerns not reasonably satisfied by the holder of the patent rights.


IF WE ARE UNABLE TO PROTECT OUR TRADE SECRETS, THEN OTHERS MAY BE ABLE TO USE OUR SECRETS TO COMPETE MORE EFFECTIVELY


We may not be able to meaningfully protect our trade secrets. We rely on trade secret protection to protect our confidential and proprietary information. We believe that we have developed proprietary procedures for making libraries of DNA sequences and genes. We have not sought patent protection for these procedures. Additionally, we have developed a substantial database concerning genes we have identified. While we have entered into confidentiality agreements with employees and academic collaborators, we may not be able to prevent their disclosure of these data or materials. Others may independently develop substantially equivalent information and techniques. TIGR has developed or possesses specific trade secrets important to our business, including information about sequencing procedures and genes identified by TIGR.


IF WE LOSE KEY MANAGEMENT OR OTHER PERSONNEL, WE MAY EXPERIENCE DELAYS IN OUR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT EFFORT


We depend on our senior executive officers as well as key scientific and other personnel. Although we have entered into employment agreements with some of our executives, the employment agreements are for a limited period of time, and not all key personnel have employment agreements. Our employment agreement with Dr. William A. Haseltine, our Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, expires in February 2001. Although Dr. Haseltine`s employment agreement automatically extends for additional one year terms, either party can terminate the agreement four months prior to the end of the applicable term. If Dr. Haseltine decides to terminate his employment with us, this termination could delay the commercialization of our products or prevent us from becoming profitable. Further, we have not purchased key-man life insurance on any of our executive officers or key personnel, and therefore may not have adequate funds to find an acceptable replacement if Dr. Haseltine or any other valuable executive dies. Competition among pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies for qualified employees is intense, and the loss of qualified employees, or an inability to attract, retain and motivate additional highly skilled employees required for the expansion of our activities, could hinder our ability to complete human studies successfully and develop marketable products.


IF WE DO NOT OBTAIN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL FUNDS ON ACCEPTABLE TERMS, THEN WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO GROW OUR BUSINESS AND GENERATE ENOUGH REVENUE TO RECOVER OUR INVESTMENT IN OUR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT EFFORT


Since inception, we have expended, and expect to continue to expend, substantial funds to continue our research and development programs. If we incur unanticipated expenses or delays in receipt of revenue, we may require additional financing to fund our operating expenses and capital requirements. We may not be able to obtain additional financing on acceptable terms. If we raise additional funds by issuing equity securities, the new securities may dilute the interests of our existing stockholders.


BECAUSE WE ARE SUBJECT TO EXTENSIVE AND UNCERTAIN GOVERNMENT REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO OBTAIN GOVERNMENT APPROVAL OF OUR PRODUCTS IN A TIMELY MANNER


Our products are subject to an extensive and uncertain regulatory approval process by the FDA and comparable agencies in other countries. The regulation of new products is extensive, and the required process of laboratory testing and human studies is lengthy and expensive. We may not obtain FDA approvals in a timely manner, or at all. For instance, Vascular Genetics recently announced that it will not enroll or treat additional patients in its clinical trials of VEGF-2 in response to an FDA hold on further testing. We and our collaborators may encounter significant delays or excessive costs in our efforts to secure necessary approvals or licenses. Even if we obtain FDA regulatory approvals, the FDA extensively regulates manufacturing, labeling, distributing, marketing, promotion and advertising after product approval. Moreover, several areas in which we or our collaborators may develop products involve relatively new technology and have not been the subject of extensive product testing in humans. The regulatory requirements governing these products and related clinical procedures remain uncertain. In addition, these products may be subject to substantial review by foreign governmental regulatory authorities which could prevent or delay approval in those countries. Regulatory requirements ultimately imposed on our products could limit our ability to test, manufacture and, ultimately, commercialize our products.


ADVERSE PERCEPTION AND INCREASED REGULATORY SCRUTINY OF GENE THERAPY AND GENETIC RESEARCH MAY LIMIT OUR ABILITY TO CONDUCT OUR BUSINESS


Ethical, social and legal concerns about gene therapy, genetic testing and genetic research could result in additional regulations restricting or prohibiting the processes we or our suppliers may use. Recently, gene therapy




studies, including studies of VEGF-2, have come under increasing scrutiny which has delayed ongoing and may delay future clinical trials and regulatory approvals. Federal and state agencies, congressional committees and foreign governments have expressed interest in further regulating biotechnology. More restrictive regulations or claims that our products are unsafe or pose a hazard could prevent us from commercializing any products.


BECAUSE WE ARE SUBJECT TO ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY LAWS, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO CONDUCT OUR BUSINESS IN THE MANNER WE CURRENTLY INTEND


State and federal laws regarding environmental protection, hazardous substances and human health and safety affect our business. The use of hazardous substances in our operations exposes us to the risk of accidental releases. If our operations result in contamination of the environment or expose individuals to hazardous substances, we could be liable for damages and governmental fines. Future changes to environmental, health and safety laws could cause us to incur additional expense or restrict our operations.


BECAUSE WE DEPEND ON A SINGLE SUPPLIER FOR GENE SEQUENCING MACHINES AND CHEMICALS, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO IDENTIFY ADDITIONAL GENES IF WE LOSE THAT SUPPLIER


We currently depend on a single supplier, Applied Biosystems, a division of PE Corporation, formerly Perkin-Elmer Corporation, to provide all our gene sequencing machines and the chemicals we require in connection with our gene sequencing process. If we are unable to obtain additional machines or an adequate supply of these chemicals or other ingredients at commercially reasonable rates, we may be unable to continue to identify genes through gene sequencing. PE Corporation has recently created Celera Genomics Corporation, an entity that is sequencing the human genome and could potentially be one of our competitors. While other gene sequencing machines are available, we do not believe that other machines are as efficient as the machines we currently use. Gene sequencing machines or chemicals may not remain available in commercial quantities at acceptable costs.


BECAUSE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LIMITED MANUFACTURING CAPACITY AND RELY ON THIRD PARTIES TO MANUFACTURE OUR PRODUCTS FOR STUDIES AND SALE, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO OBTAIN NECESSARY PRODUCTS ECONOMICALLY


We do not currently have any manufacturing facilities licensed to supply materials suitable for clinical trials or for commercial sale or any experience in manufacturing materials suitable for human studies or for commercial sale. We depend on third parties to comply with current good manufacturing practices, known as cGMPs, and other regulatory requirements and to deliver materials on a timely basis. These third parties may not perform adequately. Any failures by these third parties may delay our development of products or their submission for regulatory approval.

During 1997 and 1998, we designed and the Maryland Economic Development Corporation constructed a process development and manufacturing facility for the preparation of quantities of our proteins for human studies. Construction of an expansion of this facility has begun. The FDA must validate and inspect this facility and the expansion to determine compliance with cGMP requirements. A delay in validation of the facility or the expansion could delay or increase the cost of human studies and could delay submission of our products for regulatory approval. We may not be able to successfully establish manufacturing capabilities and manufacture our products economically or in compliance with cGMPs and other regulatory requirements.


BECAUSE WE CURRENTLY HAVE NO MARKETING CAPABILITY AND RELY ON THIRD PARTIES TO MARKET OUR PRODUCTS, WE MAY BE UNABLE TO COMMERCIALIZE OUR PRODUCTS


We do not have any products that can be marketed. In the future, we generally expect to rely on collaborators or on third parties that we may contract with to market any products that we may develop. Our collaborators or other third parties may not be successful in marketing our products. To date, we have collaborated with SmithKline Beecham, Schering-Plough and others. However, we may also co-promote or retain U.S. marketing rights to our products. If we decide to market products directly, we will incur significant additional expenditures and commit significant additional management resources to develop an external sales force and implement our marketing strategy. We may not be able to establish a successful marketing force.


IF THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM OR REIMBURSEMENT POLICIES CHANGE, THEN THE PRICES OF OUR POTENTIAL PRODUCTS MAY FALL OR OUR POTENTIAL SALES MAY DECLINE


In recent years, officials have made numerous proposals to change the healthcare system in the U.S. These proposals included measures that would limit or eliminate payments for certain medical procedures and treatments or subject the pricing of pharmaceuticals to government control. Government and other third-party payors increasingly attempt to contain healthcare costs by limiting both coverage and the level of reimbursement of newly approved healthcare products. In some cases, they may also refuse to provide any coverage of uses of approved products for disease indications other than those for which the FDA has granted marketing approval. Governments may adopt future legislative proposals and federal, state or private payors for healthcare goods and services may take action to limit their payments for goods and services. Any of these events could limit our ability to commercialize our products successfully. "



ENDE.

....

[Rabbithole]

HI Wahrheit,

wäre es nicht besser gewesen, Du hättest einen Link auf das SEC-Dokument gesetzt und kurz die Risiken zusammengefaßt?

Trotzdem danke für den Hinweis. Es ist generell ganz lehrreich sich den 10K bei amerikanischen Unternehmen mal anzuschauen.

Rabbithole

[Die_Wahrheit]

Schaut Euch dieses Unternehmen mal an (Exodus Comm. hat eine Beteiligung an diesem Unternehmen angekündigt):

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=XLA&d=t

....

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch ein anderes Unternehmen aus der Telekommunikations-Branche, das bereits im nächsten Quartal den Turnaround schaffen soll und rasant wächst:

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=nmss&d=t

[Dr. Max]

Wahrheit -

ich finde Deine Ideen sehr wertvoll. Warum machst Du nicht jeweils einen Thread im Revolutionärsboard zu Deinen Unternehmen auf. Dan können wir dann dies Unternehmen spezifisch diskutieren.

In diesem Falle hatte das Unternehmen ein Umsatzwachstum von 4% und der Verlust vergrösserte sich im letzten Jahr.

Wie kommst Du darauf, dass die in diesem Jahr den breakeven schaffen?

Max



Natural Microsystems Corporation provides enabling technologies to suppliers of networking and communications equipment. Its customers incorporate its software and hardware products and technologies into their solutions in order to enable service providers and enterprises to rapidly and cost-effectively deploy data, voice and fax applications and enhanced services in converged networks. Its products, which use technologies including digital signal processing, media processing, signal protocol processing, switching and packet classification, are essential components in networking and communications equipment deployed in the wireline and wireless Internet and PSTN. The Company also provides its customers with software development tools and systems architecture and engineering design services. These products, tools and services facilitate the rapid creation and deployment of enhanced services and applications.
Financial Summary
Natural Microsystems Corp. provides enabling technologies to the world`s leading suppliers of networking and communications equipment. For the fiscal year ended 12/31/99, revenues rose 4% to $79.5 million. Net loss totalled $18.7 million, up from $6.1 million. Revenues reflect growth in the services sector and increased revenues in Europe and from strategic accounts. Higher Loss reflects increased selling activity and increased expenditures for marketing.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Max, ich finde diese Unternehmen ("NMSS") sehr interessant. Daß sie dieses Jahr den Turnaround schaffen, sieht man z.B. unter Yahoo.com im Bereich "Research":

http://biz.yahoo.com/z/a/n/nmss.html
(hier sind rechts oben die Ergebnisschätzungen für das Unternehmen aufgeführt - außerdem das Rating der Analysten (links oben) und ganz unten das erwartete Wachstum des Unternehmens im nächsten Jahr, in den nächsten 5 Jahren usw.)

...
P.S. Diese Zahlen müssen nicht immer stimmen, aber meistens schon.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier die News über Microsoft und dem neuen Betriebssystem Windows 2000:
Wird "Windows 2000" die Betriebssystem-Landschaft verändern, revolutionieren?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000329/xg.html

...

[Der_Diletant]

Was sollen die noch grossartig revolutionieren, Windows forever!

[Die_Wahrheit]

[Die_Wahrheit]

Schaut mal auf die Entwicklung von Linux-Aktien:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RHAT&d=t
(ich hatte bereits vor einiger Zeit - als RHAT bei 100 USD stand - gesagt, daß Red Hat bis auf 20-40 USD fallen kann - jetzt steht die Aktie bei 45 USD)....

Über Microsoft: "If you can´t beat them, join them"

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Weitere News über Microsoft:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000330/fl.html

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier eine Message eines amerikanischen Boardteilnehmers bzgl. der Nasdaq-Korrektur:

"BAD WEEK FOR RETAIL INVESTOR

MONDAY STUDY COMES OUT SHOWING MAJORITY OF NASDAQ VOLUME IS FROM RETAIL INVESTORS - OPPOSITE ON NYSE - MOSTLY INSTITUTIONS THERE - WHICH MEANS FOR A COUPLE YEARS NOW RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE BEEN BADLY BEATING THE BIG BOYS - THEN ANALYSTS START TRASHING TECH STOCKS AND SCARING PEOPLE OUT OF THE NASDAQ - I`M NOT SAYING NASDAQ WASN`T RIPE FOR A CORRECTION - SOME STOCKS ARE/WERE RIDICULOUSLY VALUED - BUT THEY SEEMED TO WANT TO PUSH IT DEEPER THAN IT HAD ALREADY GONE - ANALYSTS ARE JUST LIKE PEOPLE ON THESE MESSAGE BOARDS - MOST OF WHAT THEY/WE SAY IS SELFSERVING - KEY IS TO LOOK FOR THEIR ANGLE - AND ABBEY COHEN & MARK MOBIUS CERTAINLY HAVE ONE - OR DID ABBEY COHEN JUST OFFER ALL THAT FREE ADVICE BECAUSE SHE`S WORRIED ABOUT US?"


Das habe ich hier reingestellt, damit einige begreifen, daß die Börse zu 50% aus Psychologie besteht und daß einige (die Big Boys u.a.) versuchen, dies auszunutzen. Dies wird sich in Zukunft verschärfen, weil immer mehr Privatanleger selbständig an den Märkten agieren (z.B. über Direkt-Banken und Online-Broker). Wer glaubt, daß Privatanleger "Hartgesottene" sind, der irrt sich. Viele Menschen sind leicht manipulierbar. Das sollten wir nicht vergessen. Die Geschichte Deutschlands hat das ja ebenfalls deutlich gemacht....

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch ein Auszug aus einem Reuters-Bericht:

"Financial markets were nervous after U.S. hedge fund Tiger Management LLC said it plans to close all six of its funds and return money to investors, noting that it stands ready to give back 75 percent of $6 billion in investments immediately.

This followed a warning on Wednesday that there could be a global selloff in Internet-related stocks from Templeton Fund`s Mark Mobius and Tuesday`s announcement from Goldman Sachs` equities strategist Abby Joseph Cohen that she was reducing the equity weighting in her recommended model portfolio."

ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Die BIG BOYS haben wieder zugeschlagen:
Ariba, Commerce One wurden heruntergestuft.

Schon verkaufen die "Lemminge": Commerce One ("CMRC") -20% heute.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch ein weiterer Grund, warum Privatanleger "Lemminge" und keine "Hartgesottenen" sind bzw. es gar nicht sein können: weil es die Bedingungen nicht erlauben!
Viele - vor allem in den USA - kaufen nämlich auf Kredit und dann MÜSSEN sie verkaufen, auch wenn sie es gar nicht wollen.

Hier ein Bericht von einem Insider:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/000321/wrong_000321.html

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Auch EBAY heute stark im Minus, weil die SEC die Praktiken des Unternehmens untersuchen will.

Übrigens:
Die BIG BOYS haben ein magisches Wort, um Privatanleger aus Aktien rauszuscheuchen: "We must CUT the earning´s estimates".

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein Bericht zu Microsoft, der deutlich macht, daß Microsoft ein "strong buy" ist:


"The Software Advantage (Industry Analysis)
March 31, 2000

...I chose the only three large software companies that popped into my mind, those being Microsoft (Nasdaq: "MSFT") , Oracle (Nasdaq: "ORCL") , and Adobe (Nasdaq: "ADBE") . All three easily exceeded our benchmarks in every category. This tells me that there are likely more Rule Makers (or emerging Rule Makers) out there, and that I need to increase my familiarity with this industry. Therefore, I`d like you to join me as I take a tour through the software world, occasionally stopping to examine more closely a fine specimen here and there.

Let`s start by discussing gross margins. For software producers, there is a cost -- sometimes modest, oftentimes substantial -- in the initial production of the code, as well as the tough task of acquiring pioneering users. Once a critical mass of consumers has been reached, however, every additional sale ideally requires little in the way of additional production costs, so more and more of each incremental sale drops to the bottom line.

This allows dominant software companies to turn in some absolutely killer gross margins. Microsoft, for example, keeps gross margins well north of 85%. Adobe`s gross margins for fiscal 1999 were over 90%. This is well above our Rule Maker benchmark of 50%, and leaves a whole lot of room for high net margins as well. Microsoft`s net margin of 40.2% is one of the highest that you`ll find for any company in any industry.

Then, there`s the business model advantages. Because software is stored electronically, it doesn`t cost much of anything to store it, and pressing a CD (or even better, distributing it electronically) means that the costs of distributing the product are minimal. This keeps the inventory line on the balance sheet down to microscopic or even nonexistent levels. For example, Adobe sold $282 million worth of software in the first quarter ended March 3, 2000, and had no inventory whatsoever on its balance sheet. Since inventories are a large component of the "bad" current assets that we plug into the numerator of our Flow Ratio calculation, not having any inventory pretty much guarantees a low Flowie.

In addition, because software companies can essentially create new copies of the product at will, companies that use electronic distribution for a large percentage of their sales can get paid first, then deliver the product later. That means they can translate their product into cash almost instantly. It also reduces the amount of accounts receivables that the company has on its balance sheet. Accounts receivables are the other major category of undesirable current assets, and by keeping accounts receivables low in addition to the inventory advantages mentioned above, companies like Microsoft can generate Flow Ratios of less than 0.40, which is so much better than our 1.25 target that it`s in another league entirely.

The capital required to build the software is not usually significant when compared to, say, Intel (Nasdaq: "INTC") having to build a new fab or Coca-Cola (NYSE: "KO") having to build a new plant. Microsoft may need to lease a new building, buy some new workstations, and hire some new programmers, which makes software a low-capital business.

The advantages of maintaining an ultra-low Flow and the freedom from having to make large capital expenditures to build the business can be seen by looking at the statement of cash flows. Tying up assets in inventory and running high accounts receivables balances have a direct negative impact on the operating cash flow a company can generate. Software companies` minimal levels of both inventory and accounts receivables generally result in operating cash flow in excess of net income. In addition, by not having to make large capital expenditures that eat away at the operating cash, free cash flow is greatly enhanced. Because of these cash-conserving features of the industry, many software companies can post Cash King Margins that are even higher than the impressive net margins featured on their income statements.

Finally, there is the advantage for the companies that have entrenched themselves as the leaders in their given software niche that consumers want and need to have standard applications. This need for a given standard makes it very hard for a competing company to convert users to a new product once the first mover has established critical mass. For example, most companies are standardized on Microsoft`s operating systems and office productivity software. It`s not likely that these companies would be willing to switch to another standard unless the relative benefits were absolutely enormous".


ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch ein interessanter Bericht über Microsoft (Microsoft: ein ehemaliger Revolutionär, nunmehr König der Könige):

"Windows 2000 Sets New Internet Performance Record

Team From Microsoft, University of Washington, Information Services Institute And Qwest Set New Standard for Internet Performance
REDMOND, Wash., March 31 /PRNewswire/ --

A team that included University of Washington, Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: "MSFT"), Qwest Communications International Inc. and Information Services Institute shattered the land-speed record for transcontinental Internet traffic. The group won a contest sponsored by the Internet2 Community. The winning entry results demonstrate that an off-the-shelf system consisting of Dell and Compaq workstations running the Microsoft® Windows® 2000 operating system was able to sustain a data throughput rate of 831 Mbps (out of a physical maximum of 1000 Mbps) over a distance of 5,626 kilometers. See http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2000/mar00/performa… for details. To put the results into context, moving data at those rates would allow a user to download all the music on a single CD (640 MB) from one side of the United States to the other in about six seconds. The same transmission on a typical modem found in desktop systems today would take about a day!!.

``The limits on today`s Internet are no longer determined by raw bandwidth, but rather by how well the different network components work together,`` said Brian Valentine, senior vice president of the Windows Division at Microsoft. ``The Internet2 Land Speed Record competition has helped us enable Windows 2000 to work well with the network components of the Internet today and tomorrow to deliver unprecedented speed and performance for customers out of the box.``

``This is an amazing accomplishment,`` said Ed Lazowska of the University of Washington. ``The Internet is rapidly becoming a part of our everyday lives. As richer services such as CD-quality sound, video teleconferencing, and HDTV-quality video become more widely used over the Internet, users will need a platform capable of sustaining high network throughput over long distances. Microsoft, through Windows 2000, puts this amazing capability in the hands of hundreds of millions of consumers.``

About the Contest

The Internet2 Community, which sponsored the contest, is a consortium of more than 170 universities working in partnership with industry and government leaders to develop and deploy advanced network applications and technologies, accelerating the creation of tomorrow`s Internet. The contest was established to recognize and publicize outstanding performance achievements in the area of high-performance, high-speed networks. Entries were judged on a combination of the amount of bandwidth they used and the distance they covered end to end, using the standard Internet (TCP/IP) protocols. The Internet2 Land Speed Awards will be presented every six months at the Internet2 member meetings, next scheduled for fall 2000 in Atlanta.

Windows 2000 Submission Details

Using Windows 2000 Professional, the Microsoft team set up a test that transferred 8.4 GB of data from one desktop computer in Redmond to a second desktop computer in Arlington, Va. -- a distance of 5,626 kilometers. The 8.4 GB of data was transferred in 82 seconds, resulting in a transfer rate of 831 Mbps per second. It would have taken 13 hours to transfer the same 8.4 GB of data over a 1.5Mbps DSL connection, and 15 days to transfer it over a standard 56Kbps modem.

Founded in 1975, Microsoft is the worldwide leader in software for personal and business computing. The company offers a wide range of products and services designed to empower people through great software -- any time, any place and on any device".

ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

[Die_Wahrheit]

Microsoft fokussiert sich immer stärker aufs Internet und dementsprechend wird das gesamte Unternehmen umstrukturiert:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000331/tc/tech_microsoft_1…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ich habe hier mehrmals davor gewarnt, daß einige BIG BOYS Meinungen und Kurse manipulieren, so daß der ungeübte "Investor" immer der dümmere ist. In den USA sind solche Vorgehensweisen viel ausgeprägter, da es auch um viel mehr Geld geht (die USA ist ja das Zentrum des kapitalistischen Systems weltweit). Dies hat aber auch weltweite Auswirkungen, da die US-Börsen die Leitbörsen der Welt sind.
Die Amerikaner problematisieren diesen Tatbestand viel stärker. Hier ein Bericht bei "Raging Bull":

http://www.ragingbull.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=PYRAMID&re…
(dieser Bericht gilt insbesondere für weniger liquide Titel)

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch ein SEC-Bericht üner die Manipulationspraxis der Market Makers an der Nasdaq - und das ist sicherlich nur die Spitze des Eisbergs. Nicht berücksichtigt sind gezielte Push- oder Downpush-Aktionen (je nach Interesse) bezahlter Profis an den Message-Boards, so z.B. bei yahoo.com, die Heraufstufung/Herunterstufung befreundeter Analysten (kürzlich: B2B-Bereich in den USA) usw.

Hier der Bericht:
http://www.sec.gov/enforce/adminact/34-40900.txt

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Es tut mir leid für die Ariba-Aktionäre, daß die BIG BOYS auch dort zugeschlagen haben - habt aber bitte Verständnis, die BIG BOYS wollen auch ein paar Aktien von dieser brillianten Firma haben. Wer das Spiel durchschaut, braucht ja nicht zu verkaufen, wenn er Buchungsverluste gut aussitzen kann....


P.S. Wer sich für die Manipulationspraxis der BIG BOYS interessiert, der soll auch meine Messages hier in diesem Thread durchlesen....

[Die_Wahrheit]

[Die_Wahrheit]

Von den Gruenen:

"Schickt eine Protestmail an "[e-mail]" oder
"[e-mail]" um gegen Rüttgers´ "Kinder statt Inder"-Aktion zu protestieren"


Schliesslich haben viele Deutsche in den USA ebenfalls Arbeit gefunden mit Hilfe einer Greencard. Der Wissensaustausch gehört in einer globalisierten Welt einfach dazu. Geht gegen die ewig Gestrigen vor und wehret den Anfängen (Stichwort: Haider, Stoiber, Rüttgers, Milosevic)...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Liebe Commerce-One-Aktionäre,
tut mir leid für Euch, daß die BIG BOYS billiger an Eure Aktien kommen wollen, aber das ist halt "businnes as usual" in den USA und anderswo (auch in Deutschland, z.B. bei der Escom-Aktie, die von einigen Profis bis auf 4 € hochgepusht worden ist).

Lest hierzu diesen meinen Thread hier durch (z.B. den SEC-Bericht).....


P.S. Und nehmt auch an der kleinen Mailing-Aktion gegen Rüttgers teil ("Wehret den Anfängen")

[Die_Wahrheit]

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ich hab hier nochmals reingeguckt und las meinen Satz "businnes as usual" - natürlich soll es heissen: "business as usual"...

Nichts für ungut,

Schönen Sonntag an alle,

P.S. Wer ein wenig über die BIG BOYS verärgert ist, der soll das nicht so persönlich nehmen. Das sind auch Menschen, die einfach nur - wie alle anderen auch - Geld verdienen wollen....

[Die_Wahrheit]

Aktuell zu Microsoft:
Ein "Settlement" ist offiziell am Samstag VORERST gescheitert. Schon sehen die Analysten voraus, daß Microsoft´s Aktien am Montag fallen werden. Dann werden die BIG BOYS wieder die Aktien einsammeln: "and the show must go on"...

Hier ein Bericht direkt über Posner, der versuchte, den Fall zu setteln:

"This result is disappointing not only because of the amount of time that so many busy professionals, officials, and executives have devoted to the mediation, but also because the public interest would be served by avoiding further litigation, with its potential for unsettling a key industry in the global economy. I believed when I undertook this assignment that it was in the national interest that the case be settled, and I believe it even more strongly today." This is a very serious statement from Judge Richard Posner which should make DOJ and States think twice when the case goes to U.S. Court of Appeals where Richard Posner is Chief Judge.

Vielleicht spekuliert Microsoft darauf.
Jedenfalls: für den Misserfolg der Verhandlungen sollen auch einige Bundesstaaten verantwortlich sein.

Na ja, abwarten und Kaffee trinken
schönen Sonntag noch,

[Die_Wahrheit]

Zusatz:

"Court-appointed mediator, Richard A. Posner, chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals in Chicago, noted: "I particularly want to emphasize that the collapse of the mediation is not due to any lack of skill, flexibility, energy, determination, or professionalism on the part of the Department of Justice and Microsoft Corporation". Nowhere did he make mention of the states".

ENDE.

...

[markusmao]

Hallo Wahrheit,

meinst Du nicht, daß der Name Milosevic in Deiner Aufzählung etwas
übertrieben ist????

Sicher, der gute Rüttgers hat sich da etwas verannt, trotzdem sollte
es in D auch einmal möglich sein über solche Dinge zu diskutieren, ohne
daß alle gleich wieder an den Holocaust denken, daß sind für mich
gensau ewig gestrige.

Glaubt wirklich jemand, daß die ausländischen IT-Profis wirklich so
viel besser sind wie die Arbeitslosen hier bei uns???
Das Problem bei den IT-Leuten liegt nicht darin, daß sie nicht
programmieren können, das Problem liegt eher darin, daß der
Programierer auch und vor allem die Anforderungen seines Kunden
verstehen muß. Und da glaube ich kaum, daß jemand ohne ausreichende
Sprachkenntnisse in der Lage ist seinen Job richtig auszuüben.

Zudem sind viele IT-Spezialisten nur deshalb IT-Spezialisten, weil die
große Masse überhaupt keine Ahnung hat, so to say, der Einäugige unter
den Blinden.

Aber das ist wohl ein deutsches Phänomen, daß jede Diskussion sofort
eine Frage des Asylrechts wird. Na ja, daß hätte sich Adolf wohl selbst
nicht erträumt, daß er das politische Geschehen in Deutschland so lange
mitbestimmen kann.

[Der_Diletant]

Die_Wahrheit,

ich bin schwer enttäuscht von Dir, ist dein Muster-Depot so schlecht gelaufen, dass Du es wieder gelöscht hast?

Mircosoft fliegt jetzt erst einmal raus aus meinem Depot, wegen schlechtem Krisenmanagement. Sabes, una cosa es la amistad, otra cosa es el negocio!

[Die_Wahrheit]

"markusmao",
hinter der Kampagne von Rüttgers versteckt sich ein bestimmter "rechter Zirkel" in Deutschland. Wenn Du glaubst, daß Rüttgers alleine handelt, dann täuscht Du Dich.
Deshalb nochmals: sagt ihm Eure Meinung, bevor es zu spät ist.

"Diletant",
warum ich mein Depot gelöscht habe, steht in meinem Thread "Start meines User-Depots". Als ich es gelöscht hatte, stand ich auf Platz 478 (oder so etwas) und im positiven Bereich, obwohl es am Neuen Markt einen Mini-Crash gab. Die Sache mit Microsoft war damals nicht vorhersehbar. Lies hier nochmal meine Beiträge durch, dann wirst Du merken, daß sogar Richter Posner sagte, daß die Schuld nicht bei Microsoft liegt, sondern bei einigen hard-linern (Bundesstaaten). Microsoft spekuliert darauf, daß in diesem Jahr Bush als Präsident gewählt wird UND daß Richter Posner (Chief Judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals) dem Unternehmen Microsoft besser gesonnen ist.
Was Du mit Deinen Aktien machst, bleibt Dir selbst überlassen. Ich habe meine im Tresor eingeschlossen...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Noch heute wird das Urteil gegen Microsoft gesprochen - allerdings NACH Börsenschluß:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000403/wr/microsoft_2.html
Deshalb gibt es Gewinnmitnahmen auf breiter Front.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier der Bericht über das Urteil gegen Microsoft und einige Reaktionen von Analysten.

Einheitliche Meinung: "no problem"....



http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000403/8f.html

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier der volle Text der Urteilsbegründung:

http://biz.yahoo.com/msft2/

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Zwei Sachen:
1. Microsoft´s Aktie steigt wieder im nachbörslichen Handel.
2. Bill Gates sprach in der Microsoft-Konferenz von "Appeal", also Berufung, Revision - aber auch von weitergehenden "Verhandlungen" mit der Regierung, um den Streit beizulegen...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein Bericht, was einige Abgeordnete zu dieem Urteil gegen Microsoft sagen:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000403/bdr.html

...

[MarkV]

Hallo Wahrheit,
habe da letztens einen Bericht gelesen, daß sich Bill Gates überlegt, eine riesige künstliche Insel zu bauen und die Konzernsitz in internationale Gewässer zu verlegen, um sich der Besteuerung und den nationalen Gesetzen zu "entziehen".
Allerdings war die Quelle eher so auf dem Niveau Boulevard-Blatt. Hast Du davon schon mal was gehört?
Welch eine Idee, eine Off-Shore Firma, außerhalb des juristischen und steuerlichen Einflußbereichs......

Gruß,
MarkV

[Der_Diletant]

MarkV, das mit der Insel habe ich auch gelesen, allerdings kam die Meldung am 1. April - .... ?

Unwahrheit, ich steige jetzt auf Linux um

Nach Schuldspruch will Microsoft Berufung - Hoher Verlust für Aktie

Washington (dpa) - Der weltgrößte Software-Produzent Microsoft ist am Montag wegen wettbewerbswidrigen Verhaltens schuldig gesprochen worden und musste gleichzeitig an der Börse schwere Verluste einstecken. Richter Thomas Penfield Jackson lastete dem Unternehmen von Bill Gates an, seine marktbeherrschende Stellung beim PC- Betriebssystem Windows zur Verdrängung von Konkurrenten missbraucht und damit gegen Kartellgesetze verstoßen zu haben.

Die Microsoft-Aktien verloren am Montag an der Wall Street rund 80 Milliarden Dollar (163,78 Mrd DM/83,72 Mrd Euro) an Wert. Der Aktienkurs brach um 15 3/8 Dollar oder 14,47 Prozent auf 90 7/8 Dollar ein. Die Aktien waren damit zum Börsenschluss nur noch insgesamt 472,99 Milliarden Dollar wert gegenüber 553,01 Milliarden Dollar am vergangenen Freitag. Der Technologie-Index NASDAQ erlitt einen seiner bisher steilsten Stürze: Er fiel um 349 Punkte oder 7,6 Prozent au 4 223,63 Punkte.

Der Kurseinbruch der Microsoft-Aktien erfolgte noch vor dem richterlichen Schuldspruch, der erst nach Börsenschluss bekannt gegeben wurde. Die Wall Street hatte allerdings eine Verurteilung von Microsoft erwartet.

Die US-Regierung, die zusammen mit 19 einzelnen Bundesstaaten Klage gegen Microsoft eingereicht hatte, begrüßte das Urteil im bedeutendsten US-Kartellprozess seit Jahrzehnten als Sieg für die Verbraucher. Microsoft-Gründer und Aufsichtsratsvorsitzender Gates kündigte Berufung an und zeigte sich optimistisch, dass das Unternehmen am Ende siegen werde.

Richter Jackson muss nach seinem Urteil nun in den kommenden Monaten über Strafmaßnahmen gegen das Unternehmen entscheiden. Dazu wird es eine Serie von gerichtlichen Anhörungen geben. Der auf das Kartellrecht spezialisierte stellvertretende Justizminister Joel Klein sagte, die Regierung überlege noch, welche Schritte gegen Microsoft sie anstreben werde. Schlimmstenfalls könnte dem Unternehmen die Zerschlagung drohen.

Microsoft kann erst nach der Entscheidung über die Strafmaßnahmen Berufung einlegen. Kommt es wie von Gates angekündigt dazu, könnte das Schicksal des Unternehmens noch Jahre offen bleiben.

Jackson gab den Klägern in seinem zum Teil scharf formulierten Urteil in fast allen Punkten Recht. Hauptsächlich warf er Microsoft vor, seinen Browser Internet Explorer widerrechtlich mit dem Betriebssystem Windows gekoppelt zu haben. Damit sei Konkurrenz- Produkten wie Netscapes Navigator das Wasser abgegraben worden. Größere Computer-Hersteller seien durch Vertragsrestriktionen und Drohungen unter Druck gesetzt worden, das Windows-System zu laden. Das wettbewerbswidrige Verhalten habe die Innovation gehemmt und dem Verbraucher geschadet.

Der Richter nannte Netscape als Hauptleidtragenden unter den "unterdrückten" Unternehmen. Er sprach aber auch von einem "Heer an Taktiken", mit dem Microsoft die Programmier-Sprache Java bekämpft habe.

Verhandlungen über einen außergerichtlichen Vergleich zwischen Microsoft und den Klägern waren am vergangenen Wochenende ergebnislos abgebrochen worden. Gates sagte am Montagabend auf einer Pressekonferenz in Redmond (Bundesstaat Washington), Microsoft habe alles getan, um das Kartellverfahren mit einem Vergleich beizulegen. Es werde auch weiterhin nach "neuen Möglichkeiten" suchen, den Streit außergerichtlich zu lösen, glaube aber zugleich an einen Erfolg im Berufungsverfahren.

Gates bestritt weiter, dass der Software-Riese die Innovation behindert habe. Im Gegenteil habe Microsoft zur Schaffung einer High- Tech-Industrie beigetragen, die mit einer "Welle von Wettbewerb" die Entwicklung neuer starker Produkte zu günstigeren Preisen ermöglicht habe. Innovation werde auch weiterhin die "erste Priorität" von Microsoft bleiben.

Der deutsche Microsoft-Chef Richard Roy blickt trotz des Schuldspruchs gegen den Mutterkonzern optimistisch in die Zukunft. Im ZDF-Morgenmagazin sagte er am Dienstag, er hoffe, dass sein Unternehmen in der zweiten Instanz Recht bekomme.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Die Sache mit der "Insel" halte ich auch für einen Aprilscherz.....

Zu Linux: da ist Vorsicht angebracht, es gibt bessere Investments.
Ansonsten, "Diletant", habe ich gemerkt, daß Du kaum ein Langfrist-Investor bist, sondern das schnelle Geld suchst. Vor einigen Tagen sagtest Du noch: "Bill Gates forever" und jetzt willst Du das Schiff verlassen. Hoffentlich begehst Du keinen Wortbruch, wenn Du mal heiratest und dort auch von ewiger Liebe sprichst.

Ansonsten kannst Du mit Deinem Geld immer machen, was Du so möchtest.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Übrigens, "Diletant", der Text, den Du zitierst, sagt an einer Stelle:

"Größere Computer-Hersteller seien durch Vertragsrestriktionen und Drohungen unter Druck gesetzt worden, das Windows-System zu laden"...

In der Computer-Industrie ist das eigentlich gängige Praxis. Das machen alle....frag mal AMD nach den Praktiken von Intel wie einige Computerhersteller unter Druck gesetzt werden, um Intel-Prozessoren zu verwenden....

Aber gut...

[Der_Diletant]

Eine_Wahrheit (die Wahrheit ist vermessen ... ),

dummerweise habe ich meine eigene Ankündigung nicht wahrgemacht und habe die blöden Microsoft-Aktien immer noch in meinem Depot, vielleicht sollte ich nicht so viel bei Wollsteet-Online herumsurfen ...

zum Thema Langfristinvestor

1) keine Aktie ist es wert, dass man sich in sie verliebt
2) wenn die Story nicht mehr stimmt, sollte man schnell handeln (siehe Verkauf von Celera aus dem Revolutionär-Depot)

3) wenn eine Frau dich betrügt, schmeisst Du sie dann nicht `raus?

Also, um es klar zu stellen, ich arbeite gerne mit Windows 98 und Internet-Explorer 5.1, z. B. finde ich den IE viel besser als Netscape, insofern ist dem Verbraucher kein Schaden entstanden. Der Opera ist übrigens der schnellste Browser und passt auf eine Diskette. Wird jetzt bei bestimmten Psion Subnotebooks eingesetzt. Mit Linux kenne ich mich (noch) nicht aus.

Ich glaube, dass nicht eine mögliche Aufspaltung das eigentliche Problem darstellt, das eigentliche Problem ist, dass sich das Management durch die ständigen Rechtsstreitigkeiten nicht mehr voll auf die Expansion im Internet konzentrieren kann. Vielleicht werden sie auch gezwungen, ihre Preise zu senken? Das Ganze ist jedenfalls eine Gleichung mit vielen Unbekannten, deswegen stimme ich deiner ursprünglichn Definition zu, Microsoft ist momentan eine spekulative Aktie.

Wer profitiert von der Schwächung Microsofts? Z. B. die Erzrivalen Sun Microsystems und die heimliche Linux-Aktie IBM. Beide stehen auf jeden Fall ab heute auf meiner Watschlist.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Zum "Diletanten":
Nach der gestrigen Entwicklung ist Microsoft in nächster Zeit sicherlich keine Aktie, die für "zittrige" Hände geeignet ist...

Hier noch ein Thread, wo ich auch geschrieben hatte, daß Microsoft reguliert werden könnte:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/community/board//ws/threads/…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

"Diletant",
Du bist noch neu in dem Geschäft, deshalb muß ich Dich ein wenig an die Hand nehmen und Dir den "richtigen", "wahren" Weg aufzeigen....
(ist ein wenig Spass)

Also, fangen wir mal an:
1. Es lohnt sich nicht, kurzfristige Bewegungen von Aktien zu verfolgen (vor allem nicht von qualitativ hochwertigen Aktien - es gibt sicherlich auch Ausnahmen, das gebe ich zu). Das ist ein Spiel, indem man das eine mal gewinnt und das andere mal verliert...Du machst dort 10 Punkte und dort nochmals 20, aber verpaßt die Verdopplung oder Verfünffachung einer Aktie...
2. Du fragst, ob ich eine Frau rauswerfen würde, wenn sie mich betrügen würde. Es kommt auf die Frau an und ob sie es systematisch macht. Schwach werden wir alle mal. Oder wie Jesus sagte: "Wer frei ist von Sünde, der soll den ersten Stein werfen"....
Auch bei Frauen gilt dasselbe wie bei Aktien. Wenn eine Frau wirklich sehr gut ist, dann kann sie sich bei mir viel erlauben... Qualitätsaktien und Qualitätsfrauen geniessen bei mir einen Super-Bonus....
3. Für Aktien wie Microsoft gilt ein Satz wie ihn die Amerikaner aussprechen: "Come here, be long and STAY long"...
4. IBM ist ein sehr gutes Investment und im übrigen genauso unterbewertet wie Microsoft. Ich empfehle Dir IBM unabhängig was Du mit den Microsoft-Aktien machst.
5. Wer Aktionär ist, sollte sich auch für das Unternehmen interessieren. Man ist schließlich Eigentümer. Bill Gates hat immer deutlich gemacht, daß die Konsumenten vom IE 5.01 auch immens profitiert haben. Hat er unrecht? Nein. Viele Leute machen sich kaum Gedanken, was Netscape mit seinem Webbrowser einmal machen wollte. Der Netscape-Navigator war früher kostenpflichtig für Unternehmen (und diese Unternehmen mußten bluten) und kostenlos für Privatpersonen, obwohl langfristig auch hier ein Preis gefordert werden sollte. Nun ist alles kostenlos. Ist das so schlimm? Der IE von Microsoft ist beim Aufbau einer Webseite viel schneller als der Netscape-Navigator. Deshalb benutze ich ja auch den IE von Microsoft. Netscape ist untergegangen und das gefällt einigen nicht. DAS ist die Wahrheit und nichts anderes. Einige Bundesstaaten in den USA (Senatoren u.a.) wollen nicht wahrhaben, daß ihr Lieblingsunternehmen "Netscape" untergegangen ist.



Übrigens: jetzt werden die "Lemminge" aus den High-Tech-Aktien verscheucht, damit die BIG BOYS diese Aktien einsammeln können. Nach einigen Monaten werden genau dieselben Aktien wieder gelobt weden...
Hier ein Bericht, wie die BIG BOYS vorgehen:

"The technology-rich Nasdaq composite index closed at 4223.68, in the range of a level where the index could find "technical" support. Technical analysts, who watch past trading patterns rather than news and valuations, say it would be worrisome if the Nasdaq fell below 4000 on Tuesday, because there aren`t many other support levels until you go down to 3000".

Also: erst werden die Leute aus den Aktien rausgeboxt (Abby Cohen, Mobius), dann fällt der Nasdaq-Index und dann kommen wieder andere Analysten (diesmal "technische Analysten") und berichten ihrerseits vom Untergang....

Das Schlimmste:
Das, was die Amerikaner machen, wird in Deutschland gleich nachvollzogen...sag ich doch, der deutsche Markt hat kaum ein Eigenleben...

[Der_Terminator]

Eine_(deine)_Wahrheit,

ich weigere mich, auf diesem schwachsinnigen Niveau weiter mit Dir zu diskutieren - eine Frau ist ein Kunstwerk der Schöpfung und eine Aktie ist lediglich ein Mittel zum Zweck, um möglichst einmal finanziell unabhängig zu werden.

Wenn der Zweck nicht erfüllt wird, dann ist es das falsche Mittel. Wenn Du eine emotionale Beziehung mit deinen Aktien aufbauen musst, um in Korrekturphasen zu ihnen zu halten, dann ist das deine individuelle Anlagestrategie, die mich allerdings nicht weiter interessiert.

Was Netscape angeht, da sind wir einer Meinung mit dem Unterschied, dass natürlich niemand weiss, ob Bill Gates nicht auch irgendwann einmal Geld für seinen Internet Explorer verlangt.

Was die Preise von Microsoft angeht, wage ich es zu bezweifeln, dass MS-Office (DM 1.800,- Premiumversion) wirklich so einen grossen Mehrwert gegenüber Staroffice (jetzt von Sun, kostenlos im Download, "Sie bezahlen lediglich für Support und Services") bietet.

http://www.sun.de/Produkte/Software/Personal-Productivity/in…

So, um meine konsequente und gereifte Einstellung auch optisch zu demonstrieren, benenne ich mich jetzt in Der_Terminator um.

Der_Diletant heisst jetzt Der_Terminator

Hasta la vista, baby

[Die_Wahrheit]

"Diletant"
es war gut, daß Du Deinen alten Namen aufgegeben hast. Man hat Dich einfach nicht ernst genommen....Jetzt mit Deinem neuen Namen, fürchten wir uns alle.....
Du bist schon ein lustiger Gesell...

Zu Microsoft und Linux:
Du warst einmal von Microsoft überzeugt, heute sagtest Du, daß Du jetzt Linux-Aktien kaufen willst....dieses ewige Hin und Her macht Taschen leer....
Auch Kostolany sagte:
Wenn man von einer Aktie überzeugt ist, dann nimmt man Schlaftabletten und legt sich schlafen. Wenn ein richtiger Sturm aufkommt, dann kann man dies leichter überstehen. Auf die Frage, warum er mit seinen 90 Jahren keine Schlaftabletten mehr nimmt, sagte er: "Ach, junger Mann, ich brauche keine mehr....ich bin inzwischen sehr gut trainiert...ich halte Stürme auch so aus..."


Jetzt mal was anderes.
Hier die Ursache vieler Crash´s, wie ich es bereits früher (in diesem Thread) erwähnt hatte: Aktienkauf auf Kredit vor allem in den USA:

"What could turn a correction (after all, the Nasdaq did shoot from 3000 to 5000 in just four months) into a true nightmare is margin. It`s one thing when investors who paid for their shares see values decline. At least some of them will hold on, hoping for a rebound. But people who buy on margin -- borrowing from their brokers to beef up their positions -- can be forced to sell when they get a "margin call," which requires the borrower to put up additional cash immediately.

That can accelerate momentum on the downside. After Monday`s record selloff in the Nasdaq, investors are bracing for the morning after. Tuesday morning, margin departments around Wall Street will start their calls to inform clients that they need to make good on loans their brokers made to them to buy stocks. "The notifications will begin and clients will be told they have to meet the calls immediately," says one discount brokerage executive.

He says that on Monday "you could hear the money being lost and the fear" through the telephone. And for good reason. The Nasdaq highfliers that retail investors loved were bleeding from every pore during Monday`s massacre. Redback (RBAK) was down 61 1/4 to 238 11/16, more than 20%; Nasdaq poster-child Rambus (RMBS) fell 37 9/16 to 256 15/16; webMethods (WEBM) plummeted 51 to 189. These are the names that have been margined and tomorrow, brokerage firms will need to get paid.

A Schwab spokesman says the firm noticed margin calls were up slightly at the end of last week, and that the firm expected today`s Nasdaq decline to produce an increased number of margin calls Tuesday".

ENDE.


....

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier was zum Lachen aus dem RagingBull-Board:
Da sagt einer wegen dem Nasdaq-Crash:
"I´m out. Game over. Fools: Insert more coins".

Die sind schon lustig die Amerikaner...


Jetzt was anderes:
Ich glaube, die Korrektur an der Nasdaq ist bald vorbei. 3900 Punkte sind tief genug. Vielleicht geht es aus Panikverkäufen noch etwas tiefer, aber der Markt ist jetzt wirklich überverkauft. Es gibt einige interessante Aktien zum Billigst-Tarif....

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch eine andere Sache zu Microsoft:

http://yahoo.cnet.com/news/0-1004-200-1631262.html?pt.yfin.c…
(Microsoft bietet kostenlosen Internet-Zugang)
Vielleicht wollen jetzt wieder einige Leute Microsoft verklagen, weil es die Konkurrenz (z.B. AOL) angreift....aber warum soll Microsoft nicht das tun, was alle anderen auch tun, eben freien Internet-Zugang bieten.

Was lernen wir daraus?
Wenn sich Bürokraten und Juristen in die Märkte einmischen (wie dieser Staatsanwalt gegen Microsoft, der ständig betonen wollte, daß der Konsument von der Strafkamapgne gegen Microsoft profitieren wird), dann geht es bergab mit den Märkten.

Ein Vorschlag an den "Terminator":
Warum gehst Du nicht hin und beschmeißt diesen Klein-Anwalt mit faulen Eiern, statt Deine Microsoft-Aktien zu veräußern?

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein Bericht, was George Soros zum Microsoft-Urteil und über die US-Regierung sagte:

"And Soros, got a bit hot under the collar: "The Microsoft-Thing is a sham and the lousy liberals hate success if they can`t claim it or take it away. What a shame for America as it slowly gets taken over by true communists at heart. Gates should thumb his nose and take his entire company to another country. In fact, all the technology companies should unite and move to create the wealth somewhere else and see how much tax money the liberals can suck out of the sheeple then."

ENDE..

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch eine Message aus einem US-Board:

"Seeing Reno and all her cronnies on TV last night made me sick. All standing around congratulating each other as if they had won an Oscar. I thought this country was supposed to stand up for free enterprise. Instead, they are choking it out and punishing success. This action is one I would expect from a Communist government, not a democracy. Has anyone ever bothered to check out Reno`s background?"

Übrigens:
Gestern sagten die Staatsanwälte, daß dies alles zum Wohle des Konsumenten gemacht wurde. Wenn die Märkte zusammenbrechen und die USA in die Rezession abgleitet (was Greenspan immer zu verhindern wußte), dann werden gerade die Konsumenten darunter zu leiden haben.

Es ist wieder einmal der Beweis für die Dummheit der Bürokraten, Technokraten und Juristen.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch eine Message eines Amerikaners als die Nasdaq bei -600 Punkte war:

"In my opinion this correction is incorrect..."

[Die_Wahrheit]

Diese ganze Korrektur - die sich jetzt ein wenig gefangen hat - dehnt sich auch auf andere Weltmärkte aus: Südamerika, Kanada usw.
Hier ein Bericht über den Kanadischen Aktienmarkt:

"http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000404/bs/canada_stocks_2.…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ist nochmal gut ausgegangen heute

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Geht´s in den USA heute weiter nach unten?.....? Sieht so aus.....


Ein Amerikaner sagte:

"The Armageddon takes NO prisoners" !

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Macht Clinton einen Rückzieher bzgl. der Genomics-Indusrie?
Hier ein Bericht:


"Washington, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Comment from President Bill Clinton on whether information developed by companies researching DNA
should be made public. Clinton was speaking at a White House conference on the new economy.

A while ago, Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair said in a statement they want the data discovered through gene mapping efforts to
be freely available for research. The U.S. government and PE Corp.`s Celera Genomics Group are in a race to complete a blueprint of the human
genetic makeup. Celera and rival companies plan to sell technology and services to use the gene data in finding new drugs. The statement sent
Celera shares plunging 21 percent, pulling down other biotechnology stocks and contributing at the time to the biggest loss on the Nasdaq
Composite Index in 10 weeks.

``Tony Blair and I crashed the markets for a day or two and I didn`t mean to,`` Clinton said.

``General information ought to be in the public domain as much as possible about the human genome. Where public money contributed to basic
research we ought to get it out there,`` Clinton said. ``If someone did it with private money, they ought to get a patent on it.`` "

ENDE.


Celera (CRA) und HGSI, aber auch andere Biotech-Aktien stark im Plus)....

Vielleicht hat Clinton und seine Administration begriffen, daß die starke politische Regulierung (erst Genomics-Industrie, jetzt auch Microsoft) die Märkte stark verunsichert hat...

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Diese Information ist auch für die Celera-Aktiönäre von Interesse

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Jetzt wissen wir, warum Clinton einer der besten Präsidenten ist, die die USA jemals hervorgebracht haben:
Weil seine ganze Administration zu oft mit seinen Sex-Skandalen beschäftigt war und den Privatsektor in Ruhe ließ. Jetzt ist Clinton wieder voll da und er hat die ganze Nasdaq verunsichert...hoffentlich nimmt er jetzt einiges zurück....

[Coluche]

Hi Wahrheit,
hab ich vor 2 Wochen schon in anderen Threads gepostet, daß es sich Clinton niemals leisten kann, amerikanisches Know-how zu sozialisieren.

Im ragingbull spotteten damals einige, Clinton sei "overblowed".

Hoffe, daß hier die meisten nüchtern bleiben und wissen, was hinter Celera an Potential steck, auch wenn der Kurs um mehr als 50 % eingebrochen ist.

Coluche

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hierzu noch ein Bericht:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000405/bs/biotech_stocks_2…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier noch ein Bericht über Celera ("CRA"), das heute bekanntgab, daß es die Sequenzierung des menschlichen Genoms (bei einer bestimmten Person) abgeschlossen hat:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/000406/md_celera__1.html

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein Reuters-Bericht über Celera:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000406/u8.html

...

[little_bull.de]

Hi People

Was meint ihr, nach der sensationellen Nachricht ist die
Aktie bei ca. 140.

Sollte man jetzt noch einsteigen????

[Die_Wahrheit]

Wenn Du ein Langfrist-Investor bist, ja.
Einige Research-Häuser nennen Kursziele von bis zu 300 USD bis zum Ende des Jahres. Diese Kursziele scheinen wieder realistisch zu sein, falls Clinton seinen "dummen Schnabel" hält (tut mir leid für den Ausdruck).
Hier die 2 Genomics-Aktien, die nunmehr wieder empfehlenswert sind: "HGSI" und "CRA"

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=cra+hgsi&d=t

...

[little_bull.de]

Aber nach dieser Wahnsinnsnachricht müßte man doch
glauben, daß die Aktie zur Kursrakete wird, ich meine,
was die geschafft haben ist doch der Durchbruch der Gen-/Biotechbranche.
Oder habe ich da etwa was falsch verstanden???

[little_bull.de]

Hi all

Kann mir einer von euch sagen, wie ich die Boards und die Einträge
akualisieren kann, ohne ständig rein und raus zu gehen.
Danke.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier mußt Du ständig rein und raus...das ist halt so.


Hier ein interessantes Statement vom Celera-CEO gerichtet an den US-Kongreß:

http://www.celera.com/corporate/about/press_releases/celera0…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier nochmals der Bericht in voller Länge:


"PREPARED STATEMENT OF
CRAIG VENTER, Ph.D.
PRESIDENT AND CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER

CELERA GENOMICS, A PE CORPORATION BUSINESS
PREPARED STATEMENT BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE

April 6, 2000





Mr. Chairman, I welcome the opportunity to testify today before your subcommittee about the progress of our private sector developmentsCelera’s developmentsprogress in deciphering the human genome sequence and their its relationship to healthcare and to the federally funded Human Genome Project. My name is J. Craig Venter and I am the President and Chief Scientific Officer of Celera Genomics headquarteredlocated in Rockville, Maryland andwith several additional locations in California. In June of 1998, I testified before this Subcommittee about the impact of private sector developments on the federally funded Human Genome Project. PE Corporation and I had just launched Celera Genomics. Our goal was to build an information company to provide researchers in industry and academia with an integrated information and discovery system available on a subscription basis. At the time the federal human genome effort was scheduled to complete its task in 2005. Even scientists within the effort were worried 2005that date was optimistic. Celera set out, using the new ABI PRISM® 3700 DNA Sequencers produced by PE Biosystems and the Whole Genome Shotgunwhole genome shotgun Sstrategy developed by me and my colleagues at The Institute for Genomic Research (TIGR), to accelerate that the completion of the human genome sequence to timeframe to 2001. Why? At Celera we have adopted the motto "Speed mMatters" because "Discovery can’t wait." Since the Congress began funding the human genome effort over 5 million Americans have died of cancer, and over a million people have died because of adverse reactions to drugs, and the rate of deaths from birth deffects and genetic disease has been on the rise…(get another fact). Many scientists associated with the federal effort said we could not accelerate the completion date for the human genome project. Some said the ABI 3700 would not work as hoped. Many of the same scientists who harshly criticized my proposal in 1994 to use the whole genome shotgun strategy on a bacterial chromosome, Others nowsaid in 1998 said that the Whole Genome Shotgunthis same strategy, enormously productive in producingcompleting the first full genomeof a free living organism and most of the microbial genomes produced to date, would now fail to sequence largewith larger and more complicated genomes like the human and fruit fly, Drosophlila melanogaster. One of the witnesses on that day said, "show me the data!" He predicted we would fail—fail "catastrophically." He was wrong--and I am happy to again show the Subcommittee and the world the data.

On March 24, 2000 the genome sequence of Drosophila (the fruit fly – ana importantkey model organism for biomedical researchers) was published in Science. Celera started its sequencing of this genome in May 1999. It was the product of the finest scientific collaboration I have ever participated in and included Dr. Gerry Rubin and the Berkeley Drosophila Genome Project members along with the European Drosophila Genome Project members. Over 40 scientists from around the world came to Celera in November of 1999, to participate in an "annotation jamboree", to begin the process of annotating the Drosophila genome. In total we identified 13,601 genes. of which only 2,500 genes were previously known. Our publications in Science had 240 authors from eight different countries (see attached list of authors). The gene sequence exceeds community quality standards. We have yet to find a single gap in any of the 13,601 genes identified. The genome sequence and annotation of the Drosophila genome published in Science is equal to, if not superior to the quality of the recently published sequence of human Chromosome 22 and the C. elegans genome published in 1998 (see attached Table). The Berkeley Drosophila Genome Project group will complete the final process of finishing minor gap sequencingstages in non-gene regions of sequencing in about 6in a few months time. . We are confident that the final product will be the equal of the high quality standard established by TIGR in the 14 genomes and chromosomes that wethey have published in the scientific literature to date (SEE ATTACHED LIST)., if not superior to, the recently published sequence of human Chromosome 22 and the C. elegans genome published in 1998 (see attached Table).

While the whole genome shotgun strategy clearly worked with the Celera’s data set alone, I believe that any all of the collaborators in this project would say that the combination of Celera’s Whole Genome Shotgunwhole genome shotgun sStrategy and the more conventionaldraft sequence from the BAC-by-BAC approach has led to a greater level of knowledge about the Drosophila genome and a higher quality sequence than either approach alone would have provided.. Nonetheless, the power of the Whole Genome Shotgun Strategy was clearly demonstrated by a comparison of the genome assembled using this technique only and another version assembled using the combination of the Whole Genome Shotgun Strategy and the data produced by our partners using the conventional BAC-by-BAC approach. The combined data sets improved the assembly by only 0.13%. At the time Celera was announced there was considerable speculation that regions of the Drosophila and human genome that are repetitive in their sequence would create an unacceptable number of gaps and prevent assembly using the Whole Genome Shotgun Strategy. As reported in Science our Strategy resulted in 2 gaps per 99,000 letters of genetic code. One laboratory working on the conventional approach reported an average of 3.8 gaps per 99,000 letters of genetic code. This comparison suggests that the total effort to close the gaps in a sequence produced by the Whole Genome Shotgun Strategy may well end up commensurate with the conventional BAC-by-BAC approach. A Lastly, the bestnouther testimonial to the quality of the result of the Whole Genome Shotgunwhole genome shotgun sStrategy in Drosophila is the fact that the NIH-funded effort to sequence the mouse has now adopted the our technique, despite their strong initial protests that whole genome shotgun sequenceing could not work.. They realize that the strategy is faster, cheaper, and of equal or greater quality, than the conventional approach.

At this juncture it is important that we discuss the different elements that go into evaluating the quality of a genome sequence. You have heard much and you will hear much more in the near future about "finished" sequence, "complete" sequence, and "draft" sequence. I would like to explain the process of creating sequence and the factors that should be evaluated in judging its quality and usefulness for researchers.


Library Construction - In order to sequence a genome it is broken up into smaller fragments that are easily sequenced. These fragments are then inserted into bacterial hosts or vectors that are used to replicate each fragment. This collection of bacterial clones with the fragments of the genome inside is a DNA library. If a library is poorly constructed the sequence will be poor. The Whole Genome Shotgunwhole genome shotgun Strategystrategy, employs far fewer DNA libraries than the conventional BAC-by-BAC approach to genome sequencing, however the libraries used must be of the highest quality. Libraries must have DNA segments of uniform size and at least two libraries with different length segments must be made. One is 2,000 base pairs in length and the other is 10,000 base pairs. Once these segments have been obtained they are inserted into plasmids (i.e., a DNA structure that can be replicated within the bacteria that is different than its genome). These plasmids are then placed into bacteria that serve as vectors or hosts to the DNA.
Sequencing Phase - Electrophoresis is the method of separating DNA fragments. An electric current is passed through a medium containing a mixture of DNA, and DNA molecules of different size travel through the medium at different rates, depending on its electrical charge and size. Separation is based on these differences. In the past large plates containing gels were the media through which the fragments traveled. In the ABI PRISM® 3700 gels are contained in very thin capillary tubes that allow fast sample processing, small sample volumes, and the ability to eliminate manual gel pouring and sample loading tasks. Fluorescent dyesies matched to each of the four letters of genetic code are attached to these fragments . The fragments then flow out the end of the capillary tube where each fluorescent diye is excited by laser signaling and resulting order of base pairs or genetic letters is determined. At this stage the genome is really a collection of fragments. Genes are not fully assembled nor is their relative position within the genome well defined.
Assembly and Order –This is the most critical phase of the entire process. A genome sequence can only be considered to approach completion if it is accurate in the identification of the different base pairs and, mostre importantly, if they are in the proper order. The Drosophila genome is properly ordered—that is, the different pieces that have been sequenced are assembled in the proper correct order—and the sequence is highly accurate.
Annotation – Once the sequence is in handobtained with genes assembled and properly located within the genome, one can begin the process of identifying the gene and describing its function. The quality of the sequence and the ordering will determine how accurate the preliminary annotation will be. In the case of the C. elegans genome the initial annotation found over 18,000 genes. Just two weeks ago that number was revised to approximately 12,000. When Chromosome 22 was published 564 genes were identified. There are publications in press at this time that put suggest that the that number of genes on chromosome 22 is at aboutapproximately 1,000. These statistics suggestindicate that the public programs have fallen short in their annotation efforts.
In January of 2000 Celera announced that it had unordered, but highly accurate, fragments covering 90% of the genome (including some of the public data). The public effort has announced that they are is about approximately two-thirds of the way to thisat that same point, today. This is the so-called "Ddraft" sequence, a term introduced by the public effort but is without scientific meaningbasis. Celera has now reached a point in its program where we can assemble and order our data to produce a complete sequence. As was seen in the Drosophila collaboration, Celera’sOur ordered data, combined with the public data could produce a more accurate version of the human genome sequence faster than either party data set could alone. One of the benefits of collaboration between the public effort would be just this. I will discuss this further later in my testimony.

With the emergence of Celera on the scene many in the public effort exhibitedperienced a new sense of urgency and a competitive spiritdrive. This is mostly for the good. We all benefit from the acceleratedfaster efforts. As I have said, at Celera we understand "that speed matters". But Mr. Chairman, I find myself in the peculiar position of warning you that in the race to complete a draft human sequence, the publicly funded Human Genome Programwe may be at a stage where quality and scientific standards is arebeing sacrificed for speedcredit. On Monday it was reported in Time Magazine that the public effort was "done." and that the race to complete the genome sequence was over. I have read thatheard Dr. Collins saidy that the draft human genome sequence they are about to announce has only a few gaps and isis 99.9% accurate. However, analysis of the public data in GenBank reveals that it is How can it be completethis or accurate when it is still an unordered collection of over? How can it have a few gaps when the data consists of some 500,000 fragments of average size 8,000 base pairskbfragments and between each fragment is a gap? . This means that the publicly funded program is nowhere close to being "done".

Two years ago it was reported that Dr. Collins had said Celera would produce the Mad Magazine version of the human genome (USA Today, June 9, 1998reference usa today). Iironically, I find myself warning that there may be such a version but it will not be from Celera’s. From its formation, Celera’s is working as our goals were has beenwas and remains to producetowards a high-quality human genome sequence that will stand the test of time, and we remain committed to that goal. The Subcommittee should work to guarantee that the federal effort continues to work towards an accurate, and ordered, d sequenceand well-annotated sequence. You should urge its investigators to keep their standards at the highest levels established in the genomics field and not rush to publish preliminary datalow quality science for the sake of claiming priority. There is no example of the results of any genome sequence project being published in the scientific literature prior to meeting the established quality, order and completeness standards. ThisIt would be poorbad science policy and a terrableterrible precedent for the young genomics field. At your previous hearing, Dr. Olsen of the University of Washington warned about a "slippery slope" of data quality by creating with if the established standards for completeness were compromised in any way simplyinorder to appear to win the " genome race".

Mr. Chairman, since your earlier hearing, Celera has had many technical and scientific successes. We moved into our facilities in August of 19998. Since then Wwe constructed the world’s largest sequencing facility and are especially pleased with the accuracy of the sequence from the individual DNA samples. An analysis of 8000 samples of Drosophila sequence indicated that 7992 had an accuracy of greater than 99.5%. The remaining 8 samples were greater than 98%. With individual sample accuracy at this high level we were able to put togetherassemble the non-repetitive portions of the a fruit fly genome with regions containing its genetic information toat an accuracy of greater than 99.99 percent. Because of our paired-end sequencing strategyTherefore, we have discovered that we were able to use far fewer sequencing samples than we had originally planned. This gives us confidence that we will be able to have an high quality, accurate, and well ordered sequence for human with less our current level of genome coveragesampling.

Our data center became operational at the beginning of 1999. Our partner, Compaq Computers, has supplied us with about 800 Alpha EV6 and EV67 processors with 64-bit architecture and over 80 terabytes of storage for our data. Compaq tells us our computer center is comparable to those at the Department of Energy’s Defense Laboratories--Sandia and Lawrence Livermore. We have installed over 200 miles of fiber optic cable and 200 miles of copper cable to handle the data flow. This center was constructed not onlyjust for the essential task of assembling genomes using the whole genome shotgunwhole genome shotgun strategy, but also for serving our customers and providing them with unprecedented computational power for their research and analysis.

We have also had many business successes, as I will touch on later in my testimony.; however, I believe one important area where we can improveWe have fallen down in one important area and that isthat we have to do a better job in communicating our business objectives to you and the public. For example Mr. Chairman, your own local newspaper, The Los Angeles Times has misunderstood and therefore misinterpreted our business model and objectives. The result is a great deal of confusion about Celera and our activities. Celera is the only genomics firm that is using its sequencing power to directly sequence the human genome. As an information company, Celera is designed to assist researchers rather than focus on gene discovery and the development of new pharmaceuticals. Another feature of Celera that distinguishes us from the business models of many of our competitors is that we provide our data and information without the inherent deterrent of requiring database users to pay onerous royalties on the discoveries they make with our data (often referred to as "reach-through" royaltiesrights). We have already entered into third-party agreements that bind us to this.



How will the company build a sustainable business from its genomics and bioinformatic tools?

One of Celera’s founding principles is that we will release the entire consensus human genome sequence freely to researchers on Celera’s Internet site when it is completed. We believe that this is in the best interests of both science and our company, since it will allow researchers to advance science and medicine and at the same time be introduced to Celera’s high quality data and software tools. We will place no restrictions on how scientists can use this data, they can publish research results derived from this data, or seek intellectual property protection on discoveries using this data. The only protection that we have indicated that we would seek is database protection, as exists in Europe, to inhibit other database companies from selling the Celera database.

Our goal is to make the complex, sometimes overwhelming, and ever-increasing volumes of biological information more accessible and useful to researchers in academia and industry. Toward that end, we are creating an unparalleled library of genomic information in our databases. The genome is the foundation to build on – linked with biological and medical information – Aannotation. Annotation ofto the data added by Celera scientists and using an array of bioinformatics tools will act as the platform for developing a range of products and services. We will offer these tools in a manner similar to the models used by other information companies, such as Lexis-Nexis, Bloomberg, and AOL. The need for services such as these will only increase as the volumes of information and the complex interrelated nature of that information increase. Pricing for subscriptions to this service will vary appropriately, depending on the product, the customer, and the application. . For example, Celera has committed itself to releasing the Drosphila and consensus human sequence for free. We believe this is the right thing to do for science and our business. We also will provide value-added information to academics and other non-commercial researchers at reasonable rates, naturally bounded by those customers` resources and appraisals of the value-added.

Celera currently has had thrfiveee large pharmaceutical companies as database subscribers. as "Early Access Partners" since it began sequencing the fruit fly. The initialse partners, Pharmacia Corporation& Upjohn, Novartis, and Amgen, provided Celera with input for improvements in our data delivery systems and software. Two additional pharmaceutical subscribers have joined us since we began sequencing the human genome in September of 1999—Pfizer and Takeda Chemical Industries, Ltd. of Japan. Celera began offering web-based access to its databases and tools in March 2000. This access should be ideal for academics and smaller biotech companies. These subscribers can have access to all Celera databases, tools, and annotation, including the human genome. Our goal is to have all major commercial life science companies and academic biomedical research institutions as subscribers in the future.

With this as context I would like to address the confusion that has arisen over the accessibility of our data, in particular the accessibility of our data on the human genome. We have and will continue to react to claims that Celera intends to withhold information and delay progress, particularly when our fundamental mission is to accelerate the dissemination of high quality, accurate information. Let me emphasize--our data on the human genome is currently available to those subscribing. Our vision is that the list of subscribers will be very long. Let me draw an analogy Mr. Chairman. When you pick up a newspaper at your doorstep, you consider it quite accessible. You probably do not even remember that you are paying a subscription to have that access and you certainly don’t claim that the newspaper company publishing it is being secretive or restricting access to news about current events just because you pay a subscription fee.

A final point and one that PE Corporation and we at Celera have made since our founding. A consistent part of our business model has been we will release the entire consensus human genome freely to researchers on Celera’s Internet site when it is completed. We believe that this is in the best interests of both science and our company, since it will allow researchers to advance science and medicine and at the same time be introduced to Celera’s high quality data and software tools. We will place no restrictions on publishing the results of their research or the filing of patents. The only restriction we will assert is that other database providers will be prohibited from providing or reselling Celera’s data.

When you understand how that data accessibility is our business and that our commitment to make the genome freely available is integral to that business you can also understand our consternation at the confusion created by the recent joint statement of President Clinton and Prime Minister Blair. Their statement, a simple re-statement of the existing policy for the publicly funded project, when extended to companies engaged in genomics is certainly no obstacle to Celera’s business model. We issued the following at the time of their statement:

Celera Genomics welcomes the statement. Its own mission is completely consistent with the goals of assuring that the world’s researchers have access to this important information to enable advances and discoveries that will improve the human condition. Since the announcement of Celera’s formation we have made a clear commitment that upon our completion of the consensus human genome we would publish it in a peer-reviewed scientific journal and make it available to researchers for free.

Although the joint statement was on its face and in fact harmless, it did start a fallcorrection in the NASDAQ value– overby definition a 107% decline – and loss of over $50 billion in market capitalization in the biotechnology sector in two days, and this has continued to decline dramatically since that time.



Celera’s Human Genome Database

On January 10, 2000 we announced that we had DNA sequence in our database covering 90 percent of the human genome. As a result of that extensive sequence coverage of the 23 pairs of human chromosomes and based on statistical analysis, we believed that greater than 97 percent of all human genes were represented in the Celera database. The sequence data, developed from randomly selected fragments of all human chromosomes, contained over 5.3 billion base pairs (letters of the human genetic code) at greater than 99 percent accuracy. The 5.3 billion base pairs represented 2.58 billion base pairs of unique sequence that had been calculated to cover 81 percent of an estimated genome size of 3.18 billion base pairs. These data, combined with all of the "finished" and "draft" human genome sequence data from the public databases, give gave Celera coverage of 90 percent of the human genome. Since that announcement we have continued to increase the coverage of our data. Progress is such that we have modified our earlier estimated completion date of sometime before the end of 2001 to 2000.


Celera’s approach to sequencing the genome entails sequencing the entire genome of a number of different people. It differs from that of the public effort in that the public project makes a single composite genome from portions of a number of different people. Celera’s approach allows us to build a database for studying the genetic variations between individuals at the same time we are deciphering the consensus human genome.

Key to our progress at Celera Genomics is that we have assembled a veryan exceptional able group of employees. We have excellent technical people operating our sequencing factory. Our biologists, software engineers, information technologists, mathematicians and bioinformaticians are some of the finest to be found anywhere. This talent has not gone unnoticed. Several companies such as RhoBio S.A., a joint venture between Rhone Poulenc Agro and Biogemma, has formed a 3-year agreement, to use expression studies to discover genes related to traits of importance in maize with Celera AgGen, our agricultural business. Similarly, we have entered into a 3-year gene discovery agreement with Rhône-Poulenc Rorer (RPR), the pharmaceutical subsidiary of Rhône-Poulenc, S.A.

We have also organized a team for discovering new genes discovery in humans. This activity has also been the subject of confusion. Some have even said that Celera’s current activities are different than those described earlier to this Subcommittee. That is not true. Since its founding we have said that Celera will seek to develop on its own 100-300 medically important genes for use by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies from among the 10080,000 human genes. We will give preference in licensing these genespotential therapeutic targets to our subscribers and we will license them on a non-exclusive basis. As I said at the earlier hearing, we are not attempting to patent the human genome, any of its chromosomes, or any random sequence. Celera’s announced last fall that the company had made 6,500 provisional patent applications. This was the basis of charges in the Los Angeles Times that I had misled the Subcommittee. Those leveling the charges did so apparently because they were not familiar with a "provisional patent application." A provisional application serves to notify the Patent Office that a discovery has been made in the event that there are other patent applications for the same discovery. A patent will notcannot be issued on the discovery unless an actual patent application is filed within one year of the provisional application filing. During this twelve-month period, Celera will decide with its pharmaceutical partners which genes are medically important enough to file patent applications. This approach is similar to the research strategy taken by pharmaceutical companies. In their drug development process they start with thousands of compounds and reduce the number to a few promising compounds as more information is gained. Likewise, Celera will look at thousands of genes before determining which have the greatest relevance for human health and are most likely to be rapidly developed into commercial products by pharmaceutical companies. Other companies have different intellectual property strategies and I cannot speak for them, Mr. Chairman, but I urge you to consider that changes to patent law have to be considered in the context of what they will do pharmaceutical companies’ efforts at drug discovery.

Celera endorses the Patent and Trademark Office`s recently announced position, which is supported by centuries of precedent. Fundamental patent requirements of utility, novelty, and non-obviousness are complete and effective protections to the fear propagated that the human genome will be patented or that the revolution will be slowed. Celera does not believe the genome or other mere products of nature can be patented, and our publication commitments demonstrate that we will not try to so patent it. Consistent with long-established principles of patent law, we do expect that patents and other protections for subsequent inventions using the genome alphabet and showing utility, novelty, and non-obviousness are not only appropriate, but required to assure that incentives continue to fuel the genomic revolution.

Let me take a moment to review for the Subcommittee why we are even discussing patenting human genes. Pharmaceutical and biotech companies use these genes as the direct means of producing drugs such as insulin and as "targets" to develop drugs. that will, depending upon the relationship of the gene to an underlying health problem, enhance of diminish the activity of the gene. The cost of taking a single drug through the Food and Drug Administration approval process can range from $300 to $800 million. Having patents on the drugs and their target genes allows the company a period of time when they can exclusively use these patented discoveries for commercial purposes. This provides them a period in which to try and recover their drug development costs. A pharmaceutical company typically requires that gene targets supplied to them have patent protection as part of their effort to recoup the drugs development costs. This rationale for patenting is one that is fully accepted and supported by the NIH. Recently, during the FY2000 budget considerations, Dr. Harold Varmus, past Director of NIH explained the importance of patenting to assure commercial availability to the general public of these scientific discoveries to the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee. He said:

...patenting of newly isolated genes whose functions and medical importance are identifiable at the time of patenting can be a spur to the development of the next steps that would benefit the public, and we believe that has been the case in the instance of several recently cloned genes.

However, Celera and many of our pharmaceutical partners are very concerned that the patenting of random genome and EST fragments by many companies and research institutions will restrict their access to key targets required for drug development. An important aspect of Celera’s policies is the nonexclusive licensing of drug targets.

This rationale for patenting is one that is fully accepted and supported by the NIH. Recently, during the FY2000 budget considerations, Dr. Harold Varmus, past Director of NIH explained the importance of patenting to assure commercial availability to the general public of these scientific discoveries to the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee. He said:

...patenting of newly isolated genes whose functions and medical importance are identifiable at the time of patenting can be a spur to the development of the next steps that would benefit the public, and we believe that has been the case in the instance of several recently cloned genes.

On Monday of tThis week Celera and the National Institutes of Health issued a joint statement that, among other things, confirmed our shared beliefs regarding patents. It said:

Both NIH and Celera Genomics are in agreement that patent protection for the whole human genome, random sequences, and anonymous sequences without demonstrated utility should not be granted by U.S. and foreign patent offices and is not in the best interest of the goal of stimulating commercial development of important new products that derive from gene sequence information. Both parties agree that patenting of newly isolated genes whose functions and medical importance are specific, substantial, and credible at the time of patenting can be a spur to the development of the next steps that would benefit the public.
Both NIH and Celera are in agreement that patent protection for anonymous sequences without demonstrated utility should not be claimed and is not in the best interest of the goal of stimulating commercial development of important new products that derive from genome sequence information. Both NIH and Celera Genomics are in agreement that patent protection for the whole human genome, random sequences, and anonymous sequences without demonstrated utility should not be granted by U.S. and foreign patent offices and is not in the best interest of the goal of stimulating commercial development of important new products that derive from gene sequence information. Both parties agree that patenting of newly isolated genes whose functions and medical importance are specific, substantial, and credible at the time of patenting can be a spur to the development of the next steps that would benefit the public.
How does Celera respond to the concerns of scientists who worry that patenting gene sequences and putting such basic information in private hands will discourage research outside of the drug companies that own the rights to the information? Under the US and European patent systems, researchers are free to conduct basic research for non-commercial purposes on others’ patented discoveries. While some hypothesize that patents on genes will generally inhibit research, the facts indicate otherwise. For example, a patent was granted on the BRACCA1 gene associated with breast cancer in 1993. Since that time, over 721 basic research papers have been published on the BRACCA1 gene, and tens of further patent applications on important inventions, including genetic tests related to the BRAC1 gene, have been filed by individuals in universities and companies. Also, Celera’s policy of licensing genes on a non-exclusive basis will assure that gene discoveries are available to many—not just one.

I would like to address one more topic that has been the subject of confusion before closing. It is Celera’s willingness to collaborate on the sequencing of the human genome with the public effort. Prior to announcing the formation of Celera I met with then-Director Harold Varmus and Dr. Collins. I made the same offer of collaboration to them as I did to Dr. Rubin for the Drosophila genome. Whatever the reasons it did not come to pass as the DrosphilaDrosophila collaboration did. We also tried to form a collaboration with the Department of Energy, the founding agency for the U.S. Human Genome Project. The NIH and Wellcome Trust objected and the effort was sidelined. Recently, we received a much-publicized letter from the NIH and Wellcome Trust apparently calling an end to further discussions. I stated in my letter of response dated March 7, 2000 (attached) that we continue to be interested in pursuing good faith discussions toward collaboration. While both Celera and the public effort can achieve our shared goal of producing an accurate ordered version of the genome on our own I believe the collaboration for Drosophilaon Drosophila proved we can produce that product faster and better by working together.

Conclusion

When PE Corporation and I announced the creation of founded Celera in May 1998, it was based on a shared vision of sequencing the human genome as the basis and of accelerating a revolution in biology and health care. Financed exclusively by private investment, we brought together unique technologies and capabilities within a start-up enterprise to pursue this seemingly impossible goal. With hundreds of others joining in this effort, Celera already has exceeded its own expectations and continues to evolve as a participant in this exciting revolution.

It is has been Celera`s consistent belief that the sequencing of the human genome is the first, not the last, chapter of this revolution. The final chapter will entail a complete understanding of life`s processes, such that disease and illness finally can be treated and cured directly at the source. We envision a day when medical treatments involving the likes of radiation and chemical poisons, with their insidious side effects and trial-and-error uncertainty, are considered medieval anachronisms.

This day will not come tomorrow or during the next year. Nor will any one person, company, or organization facilitate this day. Revolution requires far more than one soldier. Celera`s business model acknowledges this and, rather than internalizing the task ahead, centers on a philosophy of facilitating others in the revolution. There will be almost limitless opportunities ahead, and we abhor any notion to think we can or should "go it alone".

Celera looks forward to several roles in the revolution, but foremost are that of instigator and facilitator. This philosophy underlies Celera`s most fundamental mission -- to discover and disseminate genomic, proteomic and related information. We believe this mission can be pursued in a way that serves both science and our business. In fact, we believe that entrepreneurial efforts such as Celera are the best way to progress. Speed matters – discovery can’t wait.


© 2000 Celera Genomics, All rights reserved".

ENDE.

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[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier eine sehr gute amerikanische Internet-Site mit Bloomberg-Infos, Reuters-Berichten, Internationaler Presse, Realtime-Aftermarket-Quotes usw.

http://www.usweblinks.com

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier nochmals der Bericht über die Meinung deutscher Forscher, was ich auch in einem anderen Thread gepostet hatte ("Durchbruch bei Celera Gen."):



"Was deutsche Forscher zum Celera-Durchbruch sagen (vom 07.04.2000, 20.50 Uhr deutsche Zeit):


HAMBURG/BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - Der US-Erfolg bei der Entschlüsselung des menschlichen Erbgutes hat skeptische Reaktionen und den Ruf nach neuen Gen-Gesetzen ausgelöst. Deutsche Genforscher bemängelten, das Verfahren des US-Unternehmens Celera Genomics ("CRA") sei zwar schnell, aber die Ergebnisse seien noch sehr lückenhaft und bedürften einer aufwendigen Nachbearbeitung. Bundesforschungsministerin Edelgard Bulmahn (SPD) sprach sich für ein "Recht am eigenen Erbgut" aus. Es dürfe weder Patente auf menschliche Gene geben, noch dürfe jemand zu einem Gen-Test gezwungen werden, forderte Bulmahn in einem Interview der "Berliner Zeitung" (Samstags-Ausgabe).

Prof. Andre Rosenthal, Leiter der Genomsequenzierung im Deutschen Humangenomprojekt (DHGP), bezeichnete die Meldung des US-Forschers und Celera-Präsidenten Craig Venter, sein Unternehmen habe 99 Prozent des menschlichen Erbgutes identifiziert, als fragwürdig: "Was Celera anbietet, weiß kein Mensch. Venter gibt keinerlei Qualitätsparameter zur Länge oder Vollständigkeit der Gensequenzen an."

Trotzdem gehe es jetzt darum, den noch unvollständigen Arbeitsentwurf für das menschliche Erbgut, an dem die Forscher des internationalen Humangenomprojektes (HUGO) fieberhaft arbeiten, bis spätestens Anfang Juni vorzulegen. Nur so könne verhindert werden, dass Venter möglicherweise seine zwar unvollständigen, aber zahlenmäßig fast kompletten Gensequenzen patentieren lassen könne. "Patentiert werden sollten aber nur einzelne Gene mit vollständiger Sequenz, deren Funktion zum einen klar bestimmt ist und die von ökonomischem Nutzen sind", sagte Rosenthal.

Bulmahn erklärte hingegen, die Bundesregierung werde sich für ein weltweites Verbot von Patenten auf Gen-Sequenzen einsetzen. "Die Ergebnisse der Entschlüsselung müssen allen zur Verfügung stehen, sonst schränken wir mögliche Fortschritte in der Medizin ein."

Sie kündigte zudem eine Initiative an, um Beschäftigten das Recht zu sichern, genetische Daten etwa über Krankheitsrisiken nicht erheben zu müssen oder sie Arbeitgebern und Versicherungen vorenthalten zu können: "Wir brauchen in Deutschland klare Regeln, damit niemand gezwungen werden kann, seine Genom-Daten einem Dritten gegenüber zu offenbaren."

Der Präsident der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft, Prof. Ernst Ludwig Winnacker, hat erst vor kurzem vor einer "Erbgut-Monopolisierung" gewarnt. Diese müsse durch ein verschärftes Patentverfahren und die Verpflichtung, patentierte Sequenzen zu veröffentlichen, verhindert werden, sagte er in einem dpa-Gespräch.

Unterdessen gelang es Forschern des DHGP zusammen mit japanischen Wissenschaftlern das zweite menschliche Chromosom komplett und in hoher Qualität zu sequenzieren. Die detaillierten Ergebnisse zum Chromosom 21 würden in wenigen Wochen in einer renommierten Fachzeitschrift publiziert, sagte Rosenthal, der auch Leiter des Instituts für Molekulare Biotechnologie (Jena) ist, der dpa.

Prof. Rudi Balling, der an der Technischen Universität München das Institut für Entwicklungsgenetik leitet, warnte: Nach dem US-Erfolg müsse die eigentliche Forschungsarbeit und das Zusammensetzen der Bruchstücke erst noch geleistet werden. Celeras Durchbruch sei nur deshalb am Donnerstag verkündet worden, um einen besseren Börsenkurs zu erzielen. In der Tat schnellten die Aktien von Celera Genomics schon am Mittwoch um 54 Prozent und am Donnerstag um weitere 20 Prozent in die Höhe - ebenso wie zahlreiche andere Biotechnologie- Werte./my/ba/DP"

ENDE.

...

[Der Lange]

na gut, dann kann ich mir es nicht verkneifen, mein comment dazu hier auch noch mal zu posten:mit anderen Worten, alles PAPPALAPAPP, was die da veröffentlicht haben - bleiben wir also lieber bei den Firmen, welche noch am Suchen sind und vielleicht auch mal was haben. Wenn sie dann mal was haben sollten, natürlich auch gleich verkaufen, weil uninteressant, weil ohne weitere Fantasie.
Ist schon beeindruckend, zu welcher Art von Kommentaren sich die deutschen Bios durchringen können. Gott sei Dank werden sie sicherlich kein allzu großes Schwergewicht bei der Beantragung des geforderten Patentverbotes im Amiland darstellen können.
Für mich sind das einfach nur schlechte Verlierer, wenn sie im TV erklären, daß man selber schon viel weiter sei - drägt sich dann natürlich die Frage auf, warum sie den aktuellen (weiteren!)Stand der Forschung nicht schon längst der Öffentlichkeit zur Verfügung gestellt haben, wenn man doch ernsthaft daran interessiert wäre, solche Forschungsergebnisse der Allgemeinheit zur Verfügung zu stellen!
Ich denke, sie haben sich verpokert und wollten mit noch mehr Ergebnissen glänzen - und nun wurde ihnen die Chow durch einen anderen gestohlen, welcher sich mit weniger zufrieden gab. Ich hoffe, CELERA kommt mit dem Patentantrag durch, gegen den Willen der (deutschen) Kirche und sonstigen Professoren, schon allein, weil ich investiert bin. Das Amiland hat die härtesten Arzneimittel-Kontrollgesetze der Welt und werden auch solche Patente human absichern können!
Ist meine Meinung! Denke, diese Aktie wird ihren Weg nach oben machen, schon allein, weil sie nun jeder kennt und auf sich aufmerksam gemacht hat.
Weiterhin gute Geschäfte!

[Der_Diletant]

Hallo Wahrheit,

mein neuer Account funktioniert nicht mehr, anscheinend boykottieren die hier grundsätzlich AOL-E-Mail-Adressen ohne das kundzutun , deswegen unter dem alten Namen.

Eine Nachricht zu MSFT (übrigens aus AOL-Newsbote), welche einer Enteignung gleichkommt:

WSJ - Microsoft droht Lizenzentzug für Internet Explorer

New York, 10. Apr (Reuters) - Im Kartellverfahren gegen den US-Softwarehersteller Microsoft droht dem Unternehmen nach einem Bericht des "Wall Street Journal" (WSJ) der Lizenzentzug für seinen Internet-Browser. Die Regierung erwäge, Microsoft zur Offenlegung des Programmcodes für den "Internet Explorer" gegenüber Computerherstellern und Nutzern zu verpflichten, berichtete das Blatt am Montag in seiner Online-Ausgabe. Auflagen würden zudem für das Office-Paket und für Windows 2000 erwogen.

Ein US-Richter hatte den weltgrößten Softwarehersteller vor einer Woche für schuldig befunden, gegen US-Kartellgesetze verstoßen zu haben. Microsoft wird vorgeworfen, seine marktbeherrschende Stellung genutzt zu haben, um kleinere Anbieter zu verdrängen. Seinen Internet-Browser hatte Microsoft in das Standardprogramm "Windows" integriert und damit seinen härtesten Konkurrenten Netscape aus dem Markt gedrängt. Eine Anhörung, bei der über Sanktionen gegen Microsoft entschieden werden soll, ist für den 24. Mai geplant.

Es ist ja erstaunlich, wie schnell man hier in der Wallstreet surfen kann, wenn man den Opera 3.61 benutzt und die Grafiken abschaltet ...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Tja, Microsoft durchläuft zur Zeit eine schwierige Phase.
Warren Buffet sagte aber immer wieder: "Kaufen sie Qualitätsaktien, wenn es donnert und es scheint, daß der Himmel einstürzt - dann sind diese Aktien billiger zu haben..."


Zu Celera.
Dieses Unternehmen hat wieder schlechte Presse bekommen:

"April 9, 2000 8:38pm

Expert urges caution on genome discovery claims

Reuters


By Allan Dowd

VANCOUVER, April 9 (Reuters) - Scientists are rapidly deciphering the human body`s genetic map, but people should be wary of any group`s claim to have completed the task, the head of the Human Genome Project on Sunday.

Private sector gene-mapper Celera Genomics drew widespread publicity and sparked a market rally for biotech shares last week when it said it had finished the first step in in sequencing the genes of one person.

"You should not take at face value any claim by any group for at least two years that says we have finished sequencing a human genome sequence. It will not be true," Francis Collins said prior to a Human Genome Organization (HUGO) conference in Vancouver.

Collins, who denies his international public collaborative group is in competition with any private-sector gene-mapping effort, said Celera was able to make its announcement because it reduced the numbers of reviews conducted on each new piece of data.

"All of us need to be very careful in our language. When somebody says `done` or `finished` or `completed` you need to ask them what their definition is because the answers may be very interesting," Collins said.

The human genome is the collection of all the genes and other genetic material that are the basic blueprint of life. Determining the exact order of DNA`s four chemical bases is progressing at a rate of 12,000 bases a minute.

The Human Genome Project hopes to have a "working draft" that will include 90 percent of the human DNA sequence by late May or early June and a final version ready on or before 2003.

The project is a cooperative effort of 16 institutions in the United States, France, Germany, Great Britain and Japan, and posts its updated data on the Internet every 24 hours.

Celera and other private sector gene-mapping companies put their information into databases, which they then charge researchers to use.

Biotech firms hope to make money by using genetic information from databases to find the root causes of diseases and cure them, rather than treat the symptoms.

More than 600 genetics researchers from around the world have gathered in Vancouver for a three-day conference that will discuss both recent findings and the social and legal questions arising from their work.

Collins said lawmakers must move quickly to stop genetic information from being used to discriminate against someone for employment of health insurance".

ENDE.

...

[judas]

hallo wahrheit!!!
hast du dich auch schon mal mit upgrade befaßt??
wenn ja, könntest du deine einschätzung hier reinstellen??
danke

[Die_Wahrheit]

"judas",
hast Du Upgrade und willst jetzt verkaufen, das Unternehmen "verraten"?
Spaß beiseite...

Ich hab mich mit Upgrade kaum befaßt. Ein Blick auf die Aktienkurs-Entwicklung von Upgrade macht deutlich, daß die Aktie ganz schön eingebrochen ist. Außerdem ist die Aktie ein OTC-Stock, ziemlich spekulativ und von daher bekommt man nicht so leicht Informationen über diese Aktie, was nicht so mein Ding ist, zumal Downpusher in den USA eine solche Aktie ganz schnell niedermachen können, denn wenn es kaum News gibt, dann ist die Aktie anfällig für negative Gerüchte an Internet-Boards, weil man dann nur über solche Boards über das Unternehmen informiert werden kann...bzw. besser gesagt: desinformiert...

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=UPGD.OB&d=t

Trotzdem: viel Glück mit dieser Aktie

[judas]

danke wahrheit für die mühe...
ich bin von upgrade überzeugt, und werde sie auch noch länger halten..
dachte nur du wüßtest vielleicht mehr als die anderen...
judas

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ich hatte mal vor einiger Zeit zu Vorsicht bei Linux-Aktien geraten, vor allem bei Red Hat ("RHAT"). Damals standen sie bei 100 USD und ich sagte deutlich, daß sie auf 20-40 USD fallen könnten. Tja, heute habe ich nachgeschaut und RHAT steht bei 30 USD. Der Graph sieht auch nicht sehr vielversprechend aus. Und das alles, obwohl dieses Urteil gegen Microsoft gefällt wurde...

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RHAT&d=t

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Viele Linux-Anhänger glauben, daß RHAT wieder steigen wird. Das ist aber nicht sicher. Die Aktie kann auch auf 10 USD fallen, um dann wieder auf 25-30 USD zu steigen und dort für 1-2 Jahre zu verbleiben. Das ganze Geschäftsmodell von RHAT ist problematisch.
Übrigens: Linux kann sich langfrisitg positiv entwickeln, aber das bedeutet nicht, daß RHAT davon profitieren wird. IBM und auch Sun Microsystems wollen ihre eigenen Linux-Versionen herausbringen, und dann auch den entsprechenden Service dazu bieten....

Es gibt bessre Investments als RHAT-Aktien, das darf man mir ruhig glauben...

[Die_Wahrheit]

[Die_Wahrheit]

Schlechte Nachrichten von der Preisfront:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000414/ts/economy_prices_3…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein Bericht speziell für "magicsteve" (also Stafan). Bei unserer Auseinandersetzung über Celera ("CRA") hatte er mir mal geraten, ich soll mich an "Silicon Investor" wenden und an das dortige Celera-Board meine Fragen richten. Dort würde man mir fachlich antworten können und natürlich ohne jeglichen Hintergedanken bzw. Interesse. Dort könne man einem Investor ehrlich antworten....
Daraufhin habe ich Stefan geantwortet, daß ich meine Fragen bestimmt nicht an irgendwelche Boards richte, auch wenn ich von einer Aktie überzeugt bin....

Hier der Bericht:


"CNBC 4/13/2000 -
When you get a stock tip from an internet chat room, how do you know the tip is legit?
It`s not easy, says the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States (SEC), especially when the chat rooms include people like "tokyo joe". The SEC says he`s a fraud. He says he`s a scapegoat. Scott Cohn has part two of our series on the internet`s mixed messages. Federal Regulators say "tokyo joe" is one of the reasons internet chat rooms are so dangerous.
>> I learn the game of hyping, I became best at hyping. >> Hyping stocks on the internet, on public message boards, on silicon investor and raging bull, and on his own subscriber-only web site.
But the SEC in one of its highest profile chat room cases yet says "tokyo joe" has been running a scam. >>
At the same time he was making misstatements and purchasing and owning securities, he would sell them after making recommendations without making proper disclosure of what he was doing.
>> A classic pump-and-dump scheme updated for the internet age but in his first television interview since being charged, "tokyo joe", whose real name is Park and who is from Korea, not Japan, says even if he was pumping and dumping, his members were always told and that he says makes it perfectly legal. >> For two years, members always knew I was buying before and i told them i`m buying before. And try to buy what i`m ....."

ENDE.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Leute, habt Ihr gesehen, was die BIG BOYS an der Nasdaq gemacht haben? Sie haben ein Blubad angerichtet.
Ich habe immer wieder davor gewarnt, daß die Märkte durch Analystenmeinungen und andere "Tricks" manipuliert werden (wie das geht, steht auch weiter unten in diesem Thread von mir; lest Euch auch den Bericht direkt von der SEC).
Die BIG BOYS haben eine Korrektur heraufbeschworen, die sie selbst nicht mehr so richtig kontrollieren können (wie der Zauberlehrling von Goethe)...und dabei sind die Fundamentaldaten gar nicht so schlecht...es gab kaum schlechte Nachrichten (die Amerikaner sagen: "A correction with NO bad news").
Die heutigen Infaltionsdaten sind ebenfalls nicht so schlecht, denn der Ölpreis ist seit März von 35 USD auf 21 USD gefallen. Die heutigen Inflationsdaten gehören damit der Vergangeheit an.
Die BIG BOYS verdienen an einer solchen Korrektur doppelt: durch Put-Optionen und dann durch das Einsammeln ausgebombter Aktien....

Die Korrektur - so hat es gestern einer in CNN gesagt - wird spätestens Mitte Mai (also in 1 Monat) beendet sein....


WATCH AND LEARN (sagen die Amerikaner)...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein Bericht aus den USA:

"NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Nasdaq and the Dow plunged Friday as an economic report revealing that consumer prices rose sharply rekindled inflation fears and concerns that the Fed may need to raise interest rates more aggressively.

The Dow Industrials dropped 331 points, or 3.0 percent, to 10,593 at 12:27 p.m. All Dow stocks were lower, with the exception of Exxon Mobil. Downside leaders were Citigroup, American Express, Home Depot, Intel and Procter & Gamble.

The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 246 points, or 6.7 percent, to 3,430. The Nasdaq is now down 15.6 percent for the year and off a whopping 32 percent from its closing record of 5,048 set on March 10.

Financial stocks took a beating and remained the Dow`s downside leaders. Retail and consumer stocks were also sharply lower, as were paper and biotech shares. Gold, utility and oil service shares were among the sectors in the black. In the tech arena, all sectors were in the red, with computer software and Internet issues suffering the largest setbacks..

"They`re throwing away the baby with the bathwater," remarked Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates. The buy-the-dip mentality is non-existent, he added.

And the huge down volume compared to up volume suggests panic selling is taking place, Liro said.

"The current decline shows that when excess liquidity is evaporating from the markets -- as it is currently -- all the fundamentals, all the upgrades in the world, all the king`s horses and all the king`s men can`t put Humpty Dumpty back together again. That is, until the excesses are completely eliminated. Great earnings won`t help stocks if expectations have been running high. And they have been running very high," said Jeff Cooper, co-founder of TradingMarkets.com.

The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index fell 3.2 percent while the Russell 2000 Index of small-capitalization stocks lost 5.1 percent.

"Since the market is falling sharply, it`s a good strategy to hold off on new buying for at least the next several days, as momentum tends to increase into a trend," said Robert Dickey, chief technical analyst at Dain Rauscher Wessels.

"Until there is more evidence of a bottom rallies are not to be trusted, especially when they occur on the open. A real bottom will likely open weak and close better. After that, another period of testing is likely -- which could last a month or two," Dickey continued.

Volume was very heavy, coming in at 585 million on the NYSE and at 1.21 billion on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Market breadth was extremely negative, with losers pouncing on winners by 23 to 6 on the Big Board and by 36 to 5 on the Nasdaq.

Data watch

The March consumer price index rose 0.7 percent overall and 0.4 percent at the core, which excludes the food and energy components. A survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.com had expected the CPI to rise by 0.5 percent overall and 0.2 percent at the core.

Most major spending categories contributed to March`s increase, which was the highest since last April. See full story.

"[While] one bad report does not make a trend, the indications that pricing pressures are building have been there for a while now. The incredibly robust economy has given firms a measure of pricing power that they have not had for quite some time and they are beginning to use it," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

"This report clearly puts a 50 basis point rise back in play [at the May FOMC meeting]," he added.

The realization that the Fed may abandon its "gradualist" approach of raising rates by 25 basis points each time sent stocks into a free fall.

Separately, Goldman Sachs` chief strategist Abby Joseph Cohen told clients early Friday that she continues to see good fundamentals as well as prospects for good corporate profits.

In specific issues, Sun Microsystems added 1 to 78 3/4. The company (SUNW: news, msgs) checked in with third-quarter earnings of 26 cents per share after the close Thursday, beating the First Call estimate of 23 cents per share. See story.

Shares of Gateway rose 3/4 to 52 3/4. Late Thursday, the company (GTW: news, msgs) posted first-quarter earnings of 41 cents a share, matching the First Call estimate.

PMC-Sierra (PMCS: news, msgs) lost 9/16 to 125. After the close Thursday, the chip maker registered first-quarter earnings of 17 cents per share, a penny ahead of the First Call estimate.

In other news, Ford (F: news, msgs) added 13/16 to 55 1/4. The auto giant revealed plans to spinoff its auto supply unit Visteon. Visteon, with 1999 sales of $19.4 billion, will rank among the top 100 companies on the Fortune 500 once it becomes an independent company, Ford said. See full story.

Juniper Networks lost 4 to 171. Late Thursday, the company (JNPR: news, msgs) posted a fourth-quarter profit from operations of 6 cents a share versus the First Call estimate of 3 cents a share. The firm also declared a 2-for-1 stock split, effective June 16.

In the bond market, prices lost ground on the CPI news. The 10-year Treasury note shed 15/32 to yield 5.98 percent while the 30-year bond lost 22/32 to yield 5.85 percent. See Bond Report.

In other economic news, February business inventories rose 0.5 percent compared to the expected rise of 0.6 percent. In addition, March industrial production rose by an as-expected 0.3 percent while capacity utilization came in at 81.4 percent compared to the expected 81.7 percent. View economic calendar and forecasts and historical economic data.

In the currency arena, dollar/yen was recently trading at 105.31, off 0.5 percent from the previous close, while euro/dollar added 0.7 percent to 0.9592.

In the commodity arena, May crude added 34 cents to $25.72 while the Bridge CRB index fell 0.21 to 212.11".


ENDE.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein weiterer Bericht:

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/middaymusings/920298.html

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

So werden Märkte manipuliert (es ist bekannt, daß hinter der Meinung in den Medien Interessen stehen):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18354-2000Apr…


"The sudden 35 percent drop in the Nasdaq composite index and 12 percent drop in the Dow Jones industrial average may seem very steep, but analysts yesterday said it`s not at all clear that the markets have hit bottom.

That`s because the ebullient "momentum" investing of recent months, primarily in the technology sector, had driven stock prices to such giddy levels that the fall from their recent peaks simply set sent technology stocks back to where they were just five months ago. To get back to when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan first triggered debate with his December 1996 warnings of "irrational exuberance" on Wall Street, the Nasdaq would have to fall another 61 percent".

...
P.S. Was soll man dazu sagen? Da wird eine Aussage von Greenspan von vor 4 Jahren herangezogen, um eine weitere Korrektur herbeizureden...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Wenigstens stellt Abby Cohen die Realität dar: daß die Korrektur ein "market event", kein "economic event" sei (weil auch viele Privatpersonen Aktienkäufe auf Kredit tätigen) und daß sich an den Fundamentaldaten nicht viel verändert hat (zumal der Ölpreis seit März wieder gefallen ist):

"Abby Cohen optimistic despite sell-off

By Greg Cresci

NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Speaking after the U.S. stocks suffered their biggest one-day point loss ever on Friday, top investment strategist Abby Cohen struck an optimistic tone and said equity prices are likely to rise from current levels.

Speaking on CNBC, the Goldman Sachs analyst said the U.S. economic expansion is ``far from over`` and forecast that corporate profits will still go up. Addressing the beaten down technology sector, which until recently fuelled spectacular stock market gains, Cohen said the outlook is bright for those companies with strong fundamentals.

``As we look forward, we are still very comfortable with the mainline technology companies, those primary companies with fabulous product development, revenues and earnings.``

Cohen, who depressed stock prices recently by trimming the proportion of assets she advises clients to keep in stocks, said corporate earnings reports may provide investors with comfort going forward.

``To the extent that the market is now lower, we think that there`s a higher price appreciation likely from current levels.`` Cohen said companies in the financial services, pharmaceuticals and global cyclical sectors offer good potential buys.

As for the stomach-churning sell-off in Friday`s market session, which left the Dow Jones industrial average down 617.78 points, or 5.66 percent, at 10,305.77, and the Nasdaq composite off 355.49 points, or 9.67 percent, at 3,321.29, Cohen said it had little to do with traditional economic forces.

``I think what we have seen (today) is very much a market event rather than an economic event,`` Cohen said. ``As we take a look at our expectations for earnings, economic growth and so on, really nothing has changed over the past two weeks.``

Cohen said inflation is unlikely to move dramatically higher and added that the Federal reserve will probably continue to raise rates incrementally.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times since June.

``Clearly, the thing that we have concluded to this point is that there has been no change in the economic backdrop of the stock market,`` Cohen said. ``We think economic expansion continues throughout our forecast horizon (of) 2000-2001, and it`s very hard to find a period in which economic and profit growth continues and the bull market ends.``".

ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein weiterer guter Artikel, der viele Fakten berücksichtigt:

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein weiterer Downpusher, der sich "Technischer Analyst" nennt:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000414/bs/nasdaq_technical…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Die_Wahrheit]

Die neuen Aufmachung von WO finde ich gelungen

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ich hab bei RagingBull ein negatives Posting von einem guten User gelesen, der früher immer positiv gestimmt war...wenn wirklich jeder pessimistisch wird in den USA, dann nähern wir uns (wahrscheinlich am Montag oder Dienstag) dem Tiefpunkt beim Nasdaq....

Der nächste Aufschwung wird sehr bald kommen

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier eine interessante Message im RagingBull:

"Inflation Worries??

If the market is so concerned about inflation, why has the 30 yr. bond dropped 1 full percentage point since early January?

Why has short term Eurodollar futures (the liquid version of Tbill futures) stayed stable for several months?

No, you can`t blame inflation worries. The credit markets sniff it out much better than the stock market. The media always needs a reason for the current day`s market movement. The credit markets ignored the CPI report, but the media believes that`s the reason the market went down. Emotion is the reason. The inefficient market theory wins again..."

ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier ein interessanter Bericht über die US-Märkte nach dem Crash:


"NEW YORK -- The major indexes struggled to hold on to gains Monday in extremely choppy dealings, underscoring investors` nervousness following last week`s drubbing.

Inside the market, Internet issues retreated while semiconductor, computer hardware and networking issues maintained gains. The broader market saw losses in biotech, gold, airline, utility, bank and brokerage sectors. The latter failed to benefit from a slew of positive earnings releases.

Investors remained very selective in their buying Monday, preferring shares of big-cap names to second- and third-tier names.

"I`d view the large-cap, quality growth stocks like the Intels and the Apples and IBMs as a buying opportunity. But the smaller names will continue to be volatile and probably have a negative bias," said John Shaughnessy, chief market strategist at Advest.

The Dow Industrials added 60 points, or 0.6 percent, to 10,366 at 2:24 p.m., led by Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and United Technologies. Downside leaders were AT&T, Home Depot and Alcoa. (See 3-month chart of Dow and Nasdaq.)

The Nasdaq Composite inched down 12 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,308.

Shares of blue-chip tech stocks saw dip buying but came off session highs. Sun Microsystems (SUNW), which reported record quarterly results late last week, climbed up 5 to 81 1/2 while Oracle (ORCL) rose 4 3/8 to 66 7/8 and Cisco Systems (CSCO) put on 5 1/4 to 62 1/4.


Richard McCabe, Merrill Lynch`s chief market analyst, said in a note to clients that interim rallies may begin, but such a move would not necessarily mean that the New Economy stocks are home free.


"We think that further downside tests are likely to develop before a major advance takes shape. By contrast, despite renewed volatility, the old
economy/value-style stocks are in what looks to be a bottoming process," McCabe continued.

"One of the technical conditions that concerns us in the current stock market environment is that sentiment indicators have reflected only moderate concern about downside risk in contrast to the usual extreme pessimism or caution at a convincing market bottom," McCabe said.

The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index inched down 0.1 percent while the Russell 2000 Index of small-capitalization stocks shed 2.5 percent.

"There`s been a huge swing in relative tech valuation from overvalued to undervalued. Typically, once a stock or industry becomes overvalued, it shoots through fair value to undervaluation before stabilizing. That`s what we think is in the process of happening, at least to most of these big cap tech stocks," said Lehman Brother`s Jeffrey Applegate in a note to clients.

"All this begs the question of whether this tech correction in over. Given the enormous swing in tech relative valuation, the modest improvement in tech relative to expected earnings-per-share growth and very robust local and global final demand environments for tech products, we think that the worst is over," Applegate continued.

Separately, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette`s Tom Galvin changed his asset allocation in a model portfolio, raising the stock portion to 90 percent from 80 percent. The cash portion was raised to 10 percent from 5 percent while taking out the 15 percent previously allocated to bonds.

Volume stood at 791 million on the NYSE and at 1.70 billion on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Market breadth remained negative despite the market`s advance. Decliners outnumbering advancers by 21 to 9 on the Big Board and by 30 to 12 on the Nasdaq.

In the meantime, a barrage of corporate earnings are pouring in. Last week, solid quarterly reports couldn`t keep the equity market afloat. The most compelling question for the market this week is whether good earnings will make a difference and bring in buyers.

In earnings news Monday, Dow stock Eastman Kodak (EK) checked in with a first-quarter profit from operations of 95 cents a share, 2 cents ahead of the First Call estimate. The stock was off 1 9/16 to 59 15/16.

Ford Motor (F) registered a first-quarter profit of $1.70 a share, easily beating the First Call estimate of $1.58 a share. The stock rose 3 3/4 to 56. See full story. Dain Rauscher Wessels lowered its price target to $80 from $87 but reiterated its "strong buy" recommendation.

Meanwhile, quarterly results from the banks and brokerages were nothing short of stellar.

Dow component Citigroup handily beat expectations, posting a first-quarter profit from operations of $1.04 per share compared to the First Call forecast of 78 cents a share. See full story. The stock (C) rose 1/4 to 58 1/4.

Merrill Lynch (MER) registered a first-quarter profit of $2.38 a share, well ahead of the First Call estimate of $1.83 a share. The stock inched up 3/4 to 90 3/4.

Charles Schwab (SCH) posted earnings of 33 cents per share compared to the First Call estimate of 32 cents a share. The stock lost 1/2 to 40.

Bank of America (BAC), meanwhile, registered first-quarter earnings of $1.33 per share, beating the First Call estimate of $1.24 per share. The stock added 1/4 to 50 3/16.

The Bank of New York unleashed earnings per share of 46 cents in the first quarter, a penny ahead of the First Call estimate. Shares (BK) added 1/2 to 39 15/16.

Eli Lilly (LLY) shares rose 2 1/16 to 69 1/2. The company posted first-quarter earnings of 63 cents per share, two pennies ahead of the First Call estimate.

Sears shares fell 1/4 to 36 5/16. The company (S) posted a first-quarter profit of 65 cents a share, in line with the First Call estimate.


In the bond market, prices retreated as U.S. shares recovered. Treasurys have taken their cues from the stock market`s moves over the past weeks.


There are no economic releases on tap for Monday. The week will be a quiet one on that front, with little news to provide direction. View economic calendar and forecasts and historical economic data.

The 10-year Treasury note dropped 1 1/32 to yield 5.86 percent and the 30-year bond lost 1/2 to yield 5.94 percent.

In currency markets, moves will likely be dictated by the stock market`s gyrations. Dollar/yen was recently changing hands at 104.15, off 0.1 percent from the previous close, while euro/dollar lost 1.0 percent to 0.9549.


In the commodity arena, May crude added 29 cents to $25.86 while the Bridge CRB index inched up 0.97 to 212.08.


Julie Rannazzisi is Markets Editor for CBS MarketWatch".

ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Hier eine sehr gute Technische Analyse der amerikanischen Märkte - geschrieben vom "Dr. Schulz der USA", Dr. Bob:

"Update

Some reasons for the huge correction over the past two weeks are:

- Extreme overvaluations, especially in Nasdaq stocks
- End of favorable seasonality and liquidity this month
- Sale of stocks to pay capital gains taxes from 1999
- Record margin levels in March forced some to sell in a falling market
- Bearish indicators for stocks included a low put-call ratio, a bullish sentiment of 54% among investment advisors – versus 30% bearish – and a double top in the Nasdaq Composite Index, with the second top having weaker breadth and volume.

Friday’s slide was aided by strong March inflation data released by the government Friday morning, which raised the specter of greater-than-expected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Margin calls were also a culprit, because with falling stock prices, over-leveraged investors have to sell some stocks to meet credit requirements. When panic selling takes place, “all boats fall with the tide.” The markets, especially the Nasdaq stocks, tend to overshoot on the upside and also on the downside, so readjustments have to occur.

The put-call ratio is up to 0.94, which is a positive indicator. Another good sign is the seven new highs on the Nasdaq Friday, compared with 556 new lows. The selling has raised $2 trillion of cash over the past week and $3 trillion over the past 2-3 weeks, which helps the liquidity problem for the market. Weekly stochastics are extremely oversold.

After the crash in October 1987, many economists and stock analysts predicted a major recession and long-term bear market, neither of which occurred. I don’t expect a bear market this time around either. On the contrary, the market has accelerated its time frame for corrections and ensuing recoveries. I would not be surprised if the low for this cycle comes early this week, though time will be needed to gain the type of bullish momentum we had just a few weeks ago.

The Nasdaq’s weekly stochastic is now 5% going down, while its daily is 3% going up and its hourly is 6% going up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s weekly is 28% going down, its daily is 13% going down and its hourly is 8% going up, indicating the Dow is trying to catch the Nasdaq’s weakness".

ENDE.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ein Bericht von heute:


"NEW YORK -- A flurry of positive earnings news in both tech and non-tech companies kept the bulls in charge Tuesday as buyers took both the Dow and the Nasdaq sharply higher for a second straight session.

The Nasdaq has risen a remarkable 13 percent over the past couple of trading sessions and is up 16 percent from its low of 3,227 reached in intra-day dealings Monday.

Investors showed increased confidence in the market and more stocks participated in the rally, as demonstrated by the market`s positive breadth. On Monday, extremely poor market internals clearly revealed that the rally was indeed narrow.

Within the tech arena, Internet and computer software stocks saw the best performance. The broader market, meanwhile, continued to see shifts from sector to sector with oil service, bank, brokerage and biotech stocks getting a pop while paper and gold stocks struggled.


The Dow Industrials added 168 points, or 1.6 percent, to 10,750 at 1:51 p.m., led by AT&T, Microsoft, J.P. Morgan and Hewlett-Packard.


While encouraged by the rally, most market watchers took a wait-and-see approach to Tuesday`s price action.

Todd Gold, technical strategist at Gruntal & Co., said two days of rallies don`t signify a bottom has been reached in the market.

Equities, Todd Gold added, need to see a marked and sustainable improvement in market internals in order to successfully push through resistance.

After all the damage suffered over the past weeks, market pundits believe it will take some time for the damage to be repaired.

"A bear market should not end in a month and a half. It should take four to five months to clear out the excesses," said Bill O`Neil, founder and chairman of Investor`s Business Daily. Thus, be ready to see prices whipsaw back and forth as the markets "base" and prepare for their next lasting advance.
O`Neil remains bullish for the long term. "Technology and the Internet are here to stay," he said. Once the healthy process of washing out the excesses takes place, he sees a roaring bull market returning in the fall.
O`Neil suggests that investors still on margin or fully invested use rallies to decrease their leverage.


Texas Instruments (TXN) fell 7 to 142 from its composite close after running up ahead of its positive earnings release on Monday. The company posted first-quarter earnings of 55 cents a share late Monday compared to First Call`s 53-cent per share projection.

Four Dow companies unleashed their quarterly results on Tuesday and beat Wall Street consensus estimates.

Coca-Cola (KO) posted a first-quarter profit from operations of 32 cents a share compared to the First Call estimate of 21 cents per share. The consensus analyst estimate included 10 cents per share in charges for the impact of a planned inventory reduction. The stock fell 1 to 47 1/2 after climbing ahead of its report on Monday.

Caterpillar (CAT) registered first-quarter earnings of 73 cents a share, well ahead of the 58-cent per share First Call estimate. The stock rose 2 to 42 15/16.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted first-quarter earnings of 93 cents a share, two cents of the First Call estimate. Shares rose 1 15/16 to 79 7/16.

Finally, Dow component Philip Morris (MO) posted first-quarter earnings of 89 cents a share, in line with the First Call estimate. Shares added 1/16 to 21 51/16.


Pfizer (PFE) registered a first-quarter profit from operations of 28 cents a share, beating the First Call estimate of 25 cents per share. The stock added 3/8 to 38 3/8.

DoubleClick (DCLK) checked in late Monday with a loss of 11 cents a share in the first quarter, matching the First Call estimate. Shares lost 3 3/16 to 56 5/8.



In the bond market, prices fell -- erasing earlier gains -- as stock watching remained the bond market`s favorite sport. Treasury`s announcement that it will buy back $2 billion in debt Thursday ranging from Feb. 2020 to August 2025 lent only some short-lived support to the market.

The 10-year Treasury note shed 3/32 to yield 6.06 percent and the 30-year bond lost 1/32 to yield 5.94 percent."


ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ich will hier noch einige interessante amerikanische Werte erwähnen, die man nach einer Korrektur immer "einsammeln" kann:

1) Computerbereich:
- Dell Comp. (DELL)
- IBM (IBM)
- Apple (AAPL)

2) Chipbereich:
- Intel (INTC)
- AMD (AMD)
- Texas Instruments (TXN)

3) Wireless Industrie
- Qualcomm (QCOM)
- RF Micro Devices (RFMD)
- Puma Techn. (PUMA)

4) Internet-Bereich
- Exodus Comm. (EXDS)
- Verisign (VRSN)
- Yahoo (YHOO)
- Ebay (EBAY)
- Inktomi (INKT)

5) Biotech
- Immunex (IMNX)
- Amgen (AMGN)
- Medimmune (MEDI)

6) Genomics (Vorsicht!)
- Celera (CRA)
- Human Genome Sciences (HGSI)

7) Netzwerk-Bereich
- Cisco (CSCO)
- Network Appliances (NTAP)
- Juniper Netw. (JNPR)

8) Große Werte, die aber reguliert werden und schlechte Presse haben:
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Philipp Morris (MO)


Hier nochmals der Graph und die Daten der Werte (die kleinen Werte haben überproportional korrigiert - das war ja das Kennzeichen dieses Crash´s):

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=dell+ibm+aapl+intc+amd+txn+qcom+r…


Kein Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Qualcomm (QCOM) hat heute nachbörslich sehr robuste Quartalszahlen präsentiert:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/news/article.asp?SYMBOL…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ein Reuters-Bericht zu Qualcomm´s Quartalszahlen:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000418/o6.html

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Auch Immunex hat positiv überrascht:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000418/news/current/imn…

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Inktomi schreibt nunmehr schwarze Zahlen:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000418/news/current/ink…


Auch andere Computerwerte (wie IBM) haben gute Zahlen gemeldet...die Märkte können dies alles nicht mehr ignorieren....es wird weiter nach oben gehen, Richtung 4.000-4.500 beim Nasdaq...

Übrigens:
In der Auflistung unten habe ich z.B. Nokia (NOK) vergessen....

[Die_Wahrheit]

Was ich gestern hier in diesem Thread schrieb - daß die Nasdaq bis auf 4.400 Punkte steigen könnte - wird nunmehr von amerikanischen Analysten bestätigt:


""You buy, when there`s blood in the streets". This was the quote made famous by Nathan Mayer Rothschild in 1815 after he gobbled up cheap stocks when the London Stock market tanked. The result was that he became the richest man in the world. This type of buying on pessimism certainly fit the Nasdaq Tuesday, as the average rocketed more than 7% amid positive earnings news and weaker-than-expected economic numbers. After last week`s 25% drop, the Nasdaq has soared nearly 14% in just two days posting back-to-back record point gains. The index has moved back above its 200-day Moving Average (MA), a bullish signal for traders. The next resistance is the 50-day MA at 4,400".

ENDE.

...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Sorry, ich meine 4.500 Punkte (und wahrscheinlich auch darüber hinaus - kommt auf die nächsten Inflationsdaten drauf an...), falls die Marke von 4.400 überwunden wird...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Ich hab´s in einem anderen Thread gepostet und will es hier wiederholen:

Wenn man professionell US-Realtime-Kurse abfragen will, dann registriert man sich bei:

http://www.datek.com
(nur zur Nutzung des Streamers: oben links anklicken "Apply Now" und dann rechts bei "Register for Streamer")

Dann hat man kostenlose und fließende Realtime-Kurse.

[Dr. Max]

Hallo Wahrheit -

vielen Dank für Deine klassen Beiträge.

Hast Du eigentlich den Ehrgeiz, den längsten Thread aufzumachen?

Hier im Village hat es sich so eingebürgert, das wir nach ca. 50 Posts einen neuen Thread aufmachen. Willst Du nicht einen neuen starten? (Entscheidung bei Dir)

Max

[Die_Wahrheit]

Max,
man kann ja inzwischen auf dieses weiße Papier-Symbol neben dem Thread klicken und dann werden nur die letzten 20 Postings aufgemacht - deshalb habe ich das nicht als Problem empfunden, weiterhin hier rein zu posten...

Aber gut, werde einen neuen Thread aufmachen.
Muß mir noch den Titel überlegen...

[Die_Wahrheit]

Mein neu eröffneter Thread heißt "Revolutionäre&Co. (Teil II)".

In diesem Thread werde ich nichts mehr reinposten.

[Die_Wahrheit]

Meinen neu eröffneten Thread kann man auch erreichen durch Anklicken von:

Thread: Revolutionäre & Co. (Teil II)


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