Platin/Palladium - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[B.ST.]

Weiss jemand, warum die amerikanischen Platin/Palladium Minen-Aktien ( Stillwater o. American Palladium ) nicht mit den Minen der restlichen Welt im Gold, Silber o. Platin-Bereich mit nach oben gegangen sind ?

[Anton_der_Zocker]

In der letzten Woche verteuerte sich Palladium zunächst, Berichte über bereits stattfindende Verkäufe des
US-Autoriesen Ford drückten aber speziell in der
zweiten Wochenhälfte auf die Stimmung und den
Preis. Ford gab bekannt, dass der Palladiumgehalt
in Katalysatoren in diesem Jahr um 50 Prozent
gesenkt werden könne. Dieses Phänomen betrifft
aber die gesamte Branche. Deswegen könnte der
Palladium-Bedarf in diesem Jahr um bis zu 25
Prozent sinken.
ereits stattfindende Verkäufe des
US-Autoriesen Ford drückten aber speziell in der
zweiten Wochenhälfte auf die Stimmung und den
Preis. Ford gab bekannt, dass der Palladiumgehalt
in Katalysatoren in diesem Jahr um 50 Prozent
gesenkt werden könne. Dieses Phänomen betrifft
aber die gesamte Branche. Deswegen könnte der
Palladium-Bedarf in diesem Jahr um bis zu 25
Prozent sinken.

So long....

[Schieler]

Gute Noten für die südafrikanischen Werte Angloplat und Implats
– Steigende Edelmetallnachfrage erwartet

Platinhäuser stehen bei Analysten hoch im
Kurs

Von WOLFGANG DRECHSLER, Handelsblatt

Der jüngste Anstieg des Goldpreises hat das
Interesse vieler Anleger auf Gold und Goldaktien
gelenkt. Verstärkt rücken nun aber auch Platin und
damit die Aktien der Produzenten in den
Vordergrund. Der Preis des Edelmetalls hat den
höchsten Stand seit Mitte Juli 2001 erreicht.

KAPSTADT. Analysten zufolge sind die Aktien einiger
Platinproduzenten unterbewertet. Dazu zählen sowohl
Angloplat als auch Implats. UBS Warburg hat gestern
beide Titel höher bewertet. Implats (ISIN
ZAE000003554) wurde von halten auf kaufen
heraufgestuft; das Kursziel lautet nun auf 685 Rand je
Aktie (akt. Kurs: 661 Rand). Bei Angloplat
(ZAE000013181) wurde die Bewertung bestätigt, das
Kursziel allerdings von 480 auf 520 Rand erhöht (akt.
Kurs: 498 Rand).

Nach Einschätzung von Experten sollten Platinaktien
von dem anziehenden Edelmetallpreis profitieren.
Gestern notierte Platin bei 525 $ je Feinunze. Das
Edelmetall blieb damit nur knapp unter dem höchsten
Stand seit neun Monaten. Ihm wird zudem eine
glänzende Zukunft bescheinigt. Denn im Gegensatz zu
Gold, das fast nur in der Schmuckindustrie gebraucht
wird, hat Platin einen industriellen Nutzen.

„Platin ist wegen seiner Vielseitigkeit einzigartig“, sagt
Steve Shepherd vom Johannesburger Brokerhaus JP
Morgan. „Wegen seiner breiten Verwendbarkeit wird die
Nachfrage kurz-, mittel- und langfristig hoch bleiben“.
Kein Wunder, dass die Platinproduzenten am Kap in den
nächsten fünf Jahre rund 20 Mrd. Rand (2 Mrd. Euro) in
den Ausbau der Bergwerke stecken wollen. Ca. 75 %
der Weltproduktion stammen aus dem südlichen Afrika.

Angloplat, der weltweit mit Abstand größte Produzent,
will seinen Ausstoß bis 2006 um 75 % auf 3,5 Mill.
Unzen steigern und dafür rund 13 Mrd. Rand
investieren. Sein Erzrivale Impala Platinum (Implats)
plant über die nächsten vier Jahre für 5 Mrd. Rand einen
Produktionsanstieg um 50 % auf 1,5 Mill. Unzen. Und
Lonrho Mining (Lonmin), die Nummer drei am Markt, will
die Produktion bis 2003 auf 870 000 Unzen und
anschließend durch Zukäufe auf über 1 Mill. Unzen
ausbauen.

Allerdings schürt der starke Ausbau der
Produktionskapazitäten Sorgen vor einem möglichen
Überangebot. Stephen Briggs vom Brokerhaus SG
Securities befürchtet, dass vor allem die
US-Autoindustrie wegen der Wirtschaftsflaute weniger
Platin als erwartet verbraucht. Ein großer Teil des
industriell verwendeten Platins geht in die Herstellung
von Autokatalysatoren. Zudem sei unklar, wie hoch die
russischen Platinlieferungen 2002 sein werden und wie
viel Platin recycelt werden kann. Daneben machen
Skeptiker geltend, dass die Kurse der Produzenten in
Erwartung eines Aufschwungs der Weltwirtschaft zu
früh und zu stark gestiegen seien.

Optimisten wie Rene Hochreiter vom Johannesburger
Brokerhaus Barnard Jacobs Mellet und Johann Odendaal
von Merrill Lynch halten Sorgen vor einer
Überproduktion für übertrieben. Eine leichte Abkühlung,
wie sie die Branche zuletzt erlebt habe, sei völlig
normal. Ihre Zuversicht gründet darauf, dass die
Autobauer wegen der enormen Preisschwankungen bei
Palladium auf sein Schwestermetall Platin umsteigen.
Auch würden immer mehr Autos mit Katalysatoren
ausgestattet.

Die jüngsten Zahlen deuten in der Tat darauf hin, dass
die Nachfrage der Industrie gestiegen ist und vor allem
Autofirmen verstärkt Platin einkaufen. Nach
Projektionen des Forschungsteams einer Londoner
Investmentbank wird sich die Nachfrage nach Platin für
Autokatalysatoren von 2,34 Mill. (2001) auf 3,6 Mill.
Unzen 2004 erhöhen. Auch der Londoner
Edelmetallhändler Johnson Matthey erwartet eine
steigende Nachfrage nach Platin. Allerdings soll diese
zunächst leicht unter der Produktion liegen.

Noch wichtiger für die Industrie ist die starke Nachfrage
der Schmuckindustrie, die derzeit rund die Hälfte des
Metalls abnimmt. Zwar ist es 2001 zu einem Einbruch in
Japan gekommen, doch hat China diesen Rückschlag
fast völlig kompensiert. Mit 1,3 Mill. Unzen verbraucht
das Land nun über 50 % der weltweit im
Schmuckgewerbe verarbeiteten 2,52 Mill. Unzen.

Etwa 35 % des weltweit geförderten Platins gehen auf
das Konto von Angloplat, einer Tochter des
Bergbaukonzerns Anglo American (60 %). Obwohl
Angloplat fast völlig auf Südafrika beschränkt ist,
dominiert der Konzern sein Marktsegment und steht
deshalb hoch in der Gunst der Anleger. Die hohen
Einkünfte, verbunden mit dem Produktionsausbau und
einer verbesserten Effizienz haben den Cash-flow
zuletzt um über 25 % auf 10 Mrd. Rand (1 Mrd. Euro)
erhöht. Hochreiter schätzt den tatsächlichen Wert des
Konzerns deshalb auf mindestens 800 Rand pro Aktie.

Als ebenso stark unterbewertet gilt der Konkurrent
Implats. Er ist vor allem wegen seiner schwerfälligen
Struktur in die Kritik geraten. Offen ist noch, wie sich
Gencor als größter Einzelaktionär verhalten wird. Die
südafrikanische Investmentgesellschaft hat jedoch
bereits den Verkauf ihres Anteils von 46 % bis Ende
2002 in Aussicht gestellt.

Zur Vorsicht raten Analysten hingegen bei Lonmin. Zwar
habe das Unternehmen den Umbau vom weit
verzweigten Mischkonzern zu einer Platinfirma
erfolgreich abgeschlossen und den Aktienkurs mehr als
verdoppeln können. Doch erwarten einige Experten nun
eine längere Phase der Konsolidierung und raten zu
Gewinnmitnahmen. Auch SG Securities hat den Wert als
Unterperformer (schlechter als der Markt) eingestuft.


HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 09. April 2002, 19:02 Uhr

[Schieler]

Langfristiger Platinchart.


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/1stplacetrading/chart/PL/M

[Shunga]

Platin wird zuwenig beachtet.

in der Sprache der schnellen Truppe:

Platin ist Turbo-Gold


Platin als Industriemetall anzusehen, greift zu kurz.

[DBrix]

Platin und mehr noch Palladium halte ich momentan für überteuert!
Entgegen anderslautenden Gerüchten sind die beiden Metalle nicht seltener als Gold.
Von den Edelmetallen ist Silber IMHO das am besten geeignete Spekulationsobjekt.
Häufigkeit in Relation zu Gold ist ca. 20:1, der Preis dagegen 70:1.
Mein langfristiges Kursziel für Silber ist $16.
xnickel hat in diesem Board gut begründete Argumente dagegen vorgetragen.
Trotzdem bin ich der Meinung, dass Silber gute Chancen hat,
durch neue Anwendungen eine starke Nachfragesteigerung zu erleben.

[Shunga]

# 6

"Platin überteuert"
(wohl gemessen am PoG)


Ist das die weiterführende Fragestellung,
bzw. ein maßgebliches Kriterium?

Oder ist Gold zu billig, weil die ZB´s, PPt es so einrichten?

und

"Platin ist genauso häufig wie Gold vorkommend"

Quelle wäre interessant.

Meines wissens fördern Anglogold, Impala und
Aquarius (Australien) an einem Platz in SA.

Daneben gibt es noch ein bischen Förderung
in USA (Stillwater Mining) und mit Unterbrechungen
in Rußland. Ein wenig fällt auch als Koppelprodukt
bei der Gold/Silberförderung an.


Gruß

Shunga

[DBrix]

Anteile in der Erdkruste:

Pd 15 ppb
Pt 10 ppb
Au 4 ppb
Ag 80 ppb

Quelle: Greenwood, Earnshaw, Chemie der Elemente.
Nun muss man fairerweise beachten, dass die Gewinnung der Platinmetalle
aus der Erzen aufwändiger ist, als dies bei Gold und Silber der Fall ist.

Trotzdem halte ich es für sehr bemerkenswert, dass Silber nur sechs mal häufiger vorkommt, als Palladium.
Vergleicht man die bereits aus den Erzen dargestellten Metalle, so ist der Ag/Pd-Quotient natürlich viel größer.
Dies erklärt auch das gegenwärtige Preisverhältnis von 1 zu 70.
Silber wird schon seit Jahrtausenden gewonnen, der größte Teil der förderungswürdigen Erze ist schon abgebaut.

[Shunga]

"Anteile an der Erdkruste"

so etwas hatte ich mir fast gedacht.

Im Meerwasser ist dann sicher noch mehr.


Wie eine Träne im Ozean...

[DBrix]

@shunga

das siehst Du IMHO nicht richtig!
Die Menge der förderungswürdigen Erze bewegt sich in ähnlichen Relationen.

[konradi]

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT


Anglo Platinum is the world`s leading producer of platinum and accounts for more than half of South Africa`s 73% contribution to world primary supplies. The Group is currently engaged in an expansion programme to increase its annual production of platinum from the 2001 level of 2,1 million ounces to 3,5 million ounces by 2006. Included in the Group are: Rustenburg Platinum Mines Limited, Potgietersrust Platinums Limited, Lebowa Platinum Mines Limited, Rustenburg Base Metals Refiners (Proprietary) Limited and Precious Metals Refiners (Proprietary) Limited.

The Group`s adherence to the ISO 9000 standards promulgated by the International Standards Organisation ensures that the purity of refined metals output complies with customers` specifications and preferences. Anglo Platinum`s customers include the world`s leading precious metal fabricators ­ Johnson Matthey plc (JM), Engelhard Corporation (EC), Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK (TKK), OMG AG & Co. KG, Heraeus and two of the world`s leading automobile companies. The close connection forged with customers has afforded the Group a more intimate relationship with the markets. Furthermore, the agency relationship with JM provides intelligence and market research that are essential to the formulation of successful marketing and operational strategies. Anglo Platinum is firmly committed to the development of its markets and, in joint ventures with JM, researches and promotes new products using PGMs.



Platinum industry organisations

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PGI Established in 1975 in Japan.
A structure with the specific role of developing the use of platinum in jewellery and promoting and diversifying geographically by operating in all key markets.



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IPA Founded in December 1987. Provides a communication forum for producers, precious metal fabricators and refiners. Focuses on market development activities, including jewellery, investment and communication.


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WFCC Formed in September 1991. Dedicated to promoting the benefits and encouraging the commercialisation of fuel cells. Membership includes platinum producers, precious metal fabricators and power generation companies.

While industrial markets for platinum are driven by technological developments, the jewellery market requires constant promotion and development to enhance consumer awareness and thereby to expand existing markets and create new opportunities. To this end, Anglo Platinum supported the formation of the Platinum Guild International (PGI) in 1975 and continues to provide funding for the organisation. In 2001, an agreement between South African platinum producers was reached committing them to increase funding of the PGI, confirming the South African platinum industry`s dedication to growing and supporting the platinum market. Following the success of PGI`s Tokyo office, further operations were established in Italy and Germany, and subsequently in the United States, China and India. The Chinese market has registered spectacular gains since the mid-1990s to become the largest market for platinum jewellery.

Further to its endeavours to promote the uses and advantages of platinum, Anglo Platinum is actively involved in other industry organisations, including the International Platinum Association (IPA), which provides a communication forum for platinum producers and precious metal fabricators and facilitates market development. Anglo Platinum is also a member of the World Fuel Cell Council (WFCC), a body dedicated to the commercialisation of fuel cell technology.



Market Supply and Demand
Net demand for platinum is estimated to have grown 5% in 2001 to a record 5,94 million ounces.


The jewellery and investment markets are created markets. Industrial applications, on the other hand are driven by technology and legislation. Constant promotion and development is thus required to ensure that platinum maintains its position as the most precious and desired metal for jewellery. Technological development continues to drive industrial demand and ongoing research into new applications will fuel the growth of this sector in the future.

Demand for platinum has grown by an average annual rate of around 6% since 1950 and the encouragement of a greater degree of geographic and application diversity has resulted in more stable market conditions. In the 1950s most platinum was consumed by industrial applications, especially petroleum refining. A buoyant platinum jewellery market dissipated during World War 2 as governments requisitioned platinum to secure its availability for the war effort. After the war, platinum jewellery demand was largely dormant until the 1960s when demand resurfaced in Japan. By 1975, Japan was the largest market for platinum, accounting for over 50% of total offtake, with the majority destined for jewellery. In the 1970s the implementation of emissions legislation for vehicles presented a new opportunity and by the end of the 1970s this sector had grown and accounted for 30% of platinum demand. The strong growth of around 10% per annum in this sector in the 1980s slowed considerably in the 1990s as auto manufacturers turned increasingly to cheaper palladium to meet emissions legislation. However, strong growth in the Chinese jewellery market and industrial uses for platinum, such as in silicone production and the manufacture of hard disks, contributed to steady expansion of platinum demand during the 1990s.

During 2001, resurgence in autocatalyst demand, steady growth from industrial applications and a softening in the jewellery market resulted in a more equitable split between applications. The market`s reliance on the jewellery sector declined from 50% in 2000 to 42% in 2001, whilst the autocatalyst sector regained its strength, accounting for close to a third of platinum demand. Growth in the platinum jewellery markets outside of Japan and further geographical spread of emissions legislation has contributed to greater market diversity. The regional demand split is tending towards an equitable distribution between the four major regions of Europe, Japan, North America and the Rest of the World.

Net demand for platinum is estimated to have grown 5% in 2001 to a record 5,94 million ounces, with weakness in the jewellery sector more than offset by a large increase in purchases by the automobile industry. Despite an estimated 5% increase in supplies ­ as South African expansions came into production ­ the market was in deficit for the third consecutive year.
The platinum jewellery market has diversified in recent years, both geographically and in terms of product.




Jewellery

Higher platinum prices, exacerbated by the differential between the platinum and the gold price, together with weak economic conditions negatively impacted demand for platinum jewellery fabrication in Japan and the USA. Further growth in demand from China was insufficient to counteract weakness in other markets and overall sales of platinum to jewellery fabricators is estimated to have declined 11% in 2001 to 2,52 million ounces.

The platinum jewellery market has diversified in recent years, both geographically and in terms of product. Once dominated by Japan, the market has now grown in other regions and China has overtaken Japan as the world`s leading platinum jewellery market. During the 1990s, platinum was firmly established in the Japanese bridal market, and now close to 100% of all engagement rings are made in platinum. In the 1980s and 1990s, the PGI embarked on successful marketing strategies to extend platinum jewellery demand to a wider target group with the promotion of other items of platinum jewellery. This included platinum at the lower end of the precious metal jewellery market. By the late 1990s, the economic situation had deteriorated; this was exacerbated by a growing platinum/gold price differential and platinum lost market share at the lower end of the market.

China

During 2001, China`s voracious appetite for platinum continued unabated. Demand for platinum from jewellery fabricators is estimated to have exceeded 1,3 million ounces in 2001, an increase of 18% over the previous year. Demand would almost certainly have been higher but for the increase in the platinum price during the first half of 2001 and some disruption to production caused by government fiscal audits. Lower prices in the second half led to an increase in the rate of offtake, which has continued into 2002.

Japan

Sales of platinum to Japanese jewellery manufacturers fell in 2001. The larger differential between the prices of gold and platinum led manufacturers and retailers selling into the lower price segment of the market to produce less in platinum. Furthermore, the recycling of old jewellery was boosted by the relatively high Yen price of platinum, further reducing manufacturers` purchases of new platinum. An increase in the fabrication of platinum jewellery and a reduction in the recycling of old jewellery in the last quarter of the year, resulted in recovery in demand towards the end of the year. Total demand for 2001 is expected to have slightly exceeded the September estimate of 700 000 ounces. Despite weak consumer demand for luxury items, platinum continues to hold its ground in the more expensive bridal and jewellery markets.

Europe

Platinum demand for the fabrication of jewellery in Europe is estimated to have declined 16% to 160 000 ounces in 2001. Growth in the UK market was insufficient to make up for weak demand from Italy and Germany.

United Kingdom

The level of interest in platinum continues to grow in the United Kingdom, with platinum becoming the premium choice for engagement and bridal jewellery. Data from UK assay offices show that the weight of platinum jewellery hallmarked in the United Kingdom increased in 2001 by 10,5%.

Italy

Italy is a major fabricator of jewellery for export markets and is thus affected by economic conditions prevailing in those markets. Weakness in consumer demand in the USA and Japan reduced sales of Italian platinum jewellery, especially chain, in 2001, and Italian fabricators` requirements fell accordingly over the previous year. As in the US market, the PGI`s promotional efforts have established a role for platinum in the bridal market, accounting for around 70% of Italy`s total platinum consumption in the domestic jewellery sector.

Germany

Weaker consumer demand has affected sales of all jewellery, but platinum jewellery the most, due again to the high price differential, which led to a fall in the lower price categories. As in other markets, the bridal sector was less affected by economic conditions.

USA

Sales of platinum for jewellery fabrication in North America declined in 2001.
One of the significant growth areas for platinum demand is for catalysts fitted to diesel vehicles.



The slowdown in the US economy has reduced consumer demand for luxury items such as jewellery. Economic uncertainty, even before the September 11 attacks, coupled with higher prices for platinum, dampened retail demand especially for smaller, less expensive items. However, as a result of PGI`s promotional and marketing campaigns, platinum is firmly entrenched in the upmarket bridal sector, where consumers are not willing to compromise quality for price.

India

The PGI India compaign was successfully launched in September 2000; initially confined to the two major cities ­ Delhi and Mumbai. PGI`s efforts have now extended to other cities. Although small at present, Indian demand is expected to contribute in time to the expansion of the platinum jewellery market.
There is growing support in North America for the manufacture and sale of more diesel-powered light vehicles.




Autocatalyst

Emissions standards governing vehicle exhaust gases were first introduced in California in 1966 and the rest of the USA followed thereafter. California continues to lead the world in both legislation and technological developments for cleaner air. Initially, limits on hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide (HC and CO) were sufficiently lenient to enable auto manufacturers to achieve them with minor engine modifications and better fuel consumption. In 1975, as part of the Motor Vehicle Emission Control Programme of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), new vehicles were fitted with oxidation or two-way catalysts. These catalysts contained platinum and/or palladium, aiding the oxidation of CO and HC into carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O). In the 1980s, more exacting standards ­ especially for nitrogen oxides (NOx) ­ required three-way catalysts. With rhodium added to the PGM mix and the air:fuel ratio kept near to the stoichiometric point of 14,7 to 1, sufficient oxygen is freed from the NOx to combine with CO and HC to produce less harmful CO2 and H2O.

Japan was the first country to follow the US example, implementing standards for tailpipe emissions in the late 1970s. Although initially in line with standards imposed in the USA, Japan fell behind developments in the USA and Europe during the 1990s, resulting in a lower growth in its PGM requirements for autocatalysts in that period.
The three largest auto manufacturers in the USA have built working fuel cell vehicles and plan commercialisation by the middle of the current decade.



In 1986, Australia adopted emissions legislation equivalent to US 1975 standards and some Southeast Asian and South American countries followed suit in the 1990s.

In the 1980s, Austria, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden adopted regulations based on US 1983 standards. It was only from 1993 that compulsory limits were imposed in the European Community (EC). However, fiscal incentives encouraged buyers to purchase cars meeting the standards ahead of implementation and demand for PGMs grew rapidly in this period.

Japan

2001 sales of new vehicles in Japan eased 1% from 2000, as softening demand for light trucks and mini-vehicles outweighed strong sales of compact cars. Sales for the year totalled 5,91 million units. A decline in exports also weighed heavily on the industry, with production declining 3,6% to 9,78 million units in 2001 and lower shipments to most major markets. Exports to Europe alone fell 21% as Japan lost heavily to domestic manufacturers in the diesel-hungry market.

Despite the decline in vehicle output, Japan`s consumption of platinum in the autocatalyst sector is estimated to have risen 19% to 345 000 ounces for the period. More stringent emissions legislation came into effect in October 2000 for new models sold in Japan and higher PGM loadings were needed in order to meet them. From September 2002, all new vehicles will have to meet the new regulations and further increases in demand for PGMs from this sector are therefore expected.

Europe

Sales of light vehicles in Europe confounded expectations and edged up 0,6% in 2001 to 14,8 million, the second highest level ever. Diesel vehicles continued to gain market share, accounting for 36% of all light vehicle sales, up from 30% in 2000. Diesel growth, combined with more stringent diesel legislation from the beginning of the year, resulted in an almost 30% rise in the use of platinum in this sector alone. The diesel segment of the European market used around 70% of the estimated 980 000 ounces of platinum required for autocatalyst applications.

Platinum content in emission control systems fitted on gasoline vehicles also rose in 2001, as the industry switched away from palladium in favour of platinum-rich systems.

USA

Despite expectations of a dismal year for US car sales in 2001, incentives offered by manufacturers boosted sales in the last quarter; 2001 was the second best sales year ever at 17,2 million units, 1,3% lower than in 2000. The proportion of light trucks has been growing in recent years and reached almost 50% in 2001. The generous incentives offered by domestic manufacturers also helped to stem market share losses to imported vehicles. `Big Three` sales for the model year-end September were 10% lower than for the previous year, but gains in the last three months of 2001 resulted in a 5% decline for the calendar year. Imported vehicles accounted for 17,8% of the market, up from 16% in 2000.

With the palladium price rising to record levels, North American auto manufacturers sought to reduce the palladium content in their emission control systems. Consequently, their platinum requirements were 36% higher in 2001. With some of the metal sourced from stocks built in the previous year, purchases of platinum rose 13% to 700 000 ounces.

Rest of the world

Platinum demand from the rest of the world is estimated to have risen 12% to 335 000 ounces in 2001, as stricter legislation was imposed in some Asian markets. The EURO II equivalent standards (Bharat II), implemented in India in 2000, were extended to cover more cities in 2001, raising demand for platinum. There was an increase in demand for all PGMs in China, as all new vehicles had to comply with EURO I equivalent standards, which had initially only covered new models. A significantly higher demand occurred in Korea, as Korean LEV regulations were applied from the start of 2001.

Diesel Vehicles

One of the significant growth areas for platinum demand is for catalysts fitted to diesel vehicles. These are currently all platinum-based. The growth in this application is expected to contribute some 25% of the expected increase in platinum demand by 2010. Legislation covering emissions from large diesel vehicles has been promulgated in the major regions of the world, whilst diesel passenger vehicles continue to gain market share particularly in Europe.
Portable fuel cell applications for powering laptop computers and mobile phones will make a significant contribution to the growth in demand in the second half of this decade.



Background

Diesel engines operate differently from gasoline engines. Whereas a spark is used to ignite the fuel and air mix in a gasoline engine, fuel injection and compression are used in a diesel engine. The mixture of air and fuel therefore adjusts to the power demand on the engine with little waste. The diesel engine is more efficient in converting the fuel`s chemical energy to automotive power and therefore almost all large, commercial engines are diesel.

Exhaust emissions

On account of diesel engines` greater efficiency and associated fuel economy, they produce around 30% fewer carbon emissions than gasoline engines. Diesel vehicles also emit NOx, sulphur dioxide and particulate matter. The emission of particulate matter, or soot, characterised diesel engines of the past and contributed to their negative image with consumers.

Developments in diesel engine technology

Since the late 1990s significant technical innovations have improved diesel engine technology. The first significant development was direct injection of fuel into each cylinder. Direct injection increased the thermal efficiency which enhances its competitive position with respect to the typical internal combustion engine. Calibration and technological developments also improved noise, vibration, harshness and emissions. More recently, common-rail fuelling systems have been developed, which use a single high-pressure fuel pump that pressurises fuel in a "rail" to which each injector is connected. The fuel is delivered at a constant high pressure irrespective of engine speed and again enhances the engine`s efficiency. The extremely high pressure of fuel injection also results in smaller particles of fuel, which burn more readily with the induction air and thereby improve fuel efficiency and power output. The improved fuel efficiency also results in a reduction of exhaust emissions.

Emissions legislation

Emissions legislation covering diesel light motor vehicles is already in place in the major regions. However the impact is felt mostly in Western Europe where 36% of passenger vehicles sold are diesel-powered. Legislation for heavy-duty diesel vehicles will be phased in from 2004 in North America, from 2005 in Europe and from 2004 in Japan.

Emission control

The use of the three-way catalyst in gasoline engines works very efficiently if the engine operates at a stoichiometric level where air/fuel ratios are controlled. With this control, HC, CO and NOx, are emitted in a ratio that, with the help of a catalyst, is easily transformed into water, nitrogen and CO2. In a diesel engine, however, the surplus of air in the mix results in insufficient HC and CO to react with the NOx and research and development has recently focused on this issue. Diesel engines also produce particulate matter and increasingly more stringent emission controls reflect this. At present, technologies such as selective catalytic reduction systems, cooled exhaust gas recirculation and NOx traps are used in conjunction with oxidation catalysts to reduce emissions. A reduction in the sulphur levels of fuels has resulted in a marked improvement in the emissions of NOx and particulate matter. Further improvements are expected as the major automobile manufacturing regions implement additional reductions from 2005.

Prospects

Light diesel vehicles continue to gain market share in Europe, largely on account of their better fuel efficiency, an important factor in a region where fuel prices are relatively high. The reduction in the negative factors associated with diesel engines, such as driveability, the emission of soot and noise has also contributed to their growing popularity.

In North America, diesel vehicles have until recently been restricted to heavy-duty applications. Americans have enjoyed relatively low-cost fuel and consumption has been a relatively unimportant issue for the consumer. However, attention to fuel economy has increased as more severe standards have been imposed on vehicles. The industry now generally accepts that zero-emission vehicles will be the reality of the future, but until then it must develop technologies that meet interim requirements. There is growing support in North America for the manufacture and sale of more diesel-powered light vehicles that will enable the industry to meet both Corporate Average Fuel Economy levels and federal emission limits. However, US and Californian emission standards are calling for drastic cuts in NOx and particulate matter emissions, a move that some industry watchers believe is specifically targeted at eliminating the diesel engine. Concerns over the USA`s reliance on oil imports, which has intensified since the terrorist attacks of September 2001, may result in a rethink on diesel engines. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) denies that the standards are prohibitive and an official representing the EPA predicts a potential 20% diesel light vehicle market share by the end of the decade, without a relaxation of the Tier 2 pollution rules.


Industrial

Investment in new Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) glass plants and construction of new petroleum refining capacity lifted the use of platinum in industrial applications by 3% to an estimated 1,52 million ounces in 2001. However, the use of platinum in the enhancement of memory on computer hard disks was adversely affected by a decline in demand for personal computers.


Platinum`s major applications in the chemical market sector

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Application Products

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Nitric acid Nitrogenous
production fertilisers
Explosives

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Process Bulk and
catalysts speciality
chemicals

Chemical

The development of the chemical industry is cyclical in nature, with periods of new capacity construction requiring large amounts of platinum followed by periods of excess capacity, when only replacement metal is needed. With a slowdown in the construction of new paraxylene plants after two years of growth, demand for platinum in this application is estimated to have declined in 2001. However, higher demand for platinum in the manufacture of silicones and nitric acid offset the decline and overall demand for chemical applications remained stable compared to the previous year.

Electrical

The growing use of platinum to enhance the memory capacity on computer hard disks underpinned significant increases in platinum demand in electrical applications in 1999 and 2000. The rapid increase was due to a rising proportion of disks manufactured containing platinum. With the proportion close to 100% in 2001 and a decline in sales of computers in the same period, platinum demand in the electrical sector fell an estimated 16% in 2001, after seven years of growth.

Fuel cells

Fuel cells use platinum to promote a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity, with the only by-products being water and heat. The principle of the fuel cell has been understood since the nineteenth century, but found practical application only in the 1960s, when NASA used fuel cells to provide power for the Apollo and Gemini space missions.

In 1990, California promulgated legislation that included a requirement for Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV), which triggered research and development efforts into fuel cell use for powering vehicles. Ballard Power Systems was founded in 1979 to conduct research and development of high lithium batteries. In 1983, it began developing proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. From 1992, prototype systems were developed to demonstrate the technology and, in 1993, it signed a four-year agreement with DaimlerChrysler, the first major collaboration with a vehicle manufacturer. Today, Ballard has expanded its alliances and a number of vehicles delivered for use in the California Fuel Cell Partnership in 2000 were powered by Ballard fuel cells.

2001 was a significant year for fuel cells. The September 11 attacks in the USA refocused attention on the West`s dependence on the Middle East for fossil fuels. The US imports 65% of the oil it needs for gasoline and diesel fuels, up from 35% in 1973, the year of the OPEC oil embargo. Energy independence would help it avoid economic difficulties and international conflict. In January 2002, the Energy Secretary of the Bush Administration announced a partnership between his department and US automobile manufacturers to promote the development of hydrogen as a primary fuel for cars and trucks, in an effort to reduce US dependence on foreign oil. FreedomCAR`s (Co-operative Automotive Research) long-term goal is to develop technologies for hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles that need no foreign oil and emit no harmful pollutants or greenhouse gases. FreedomCAR will focus on the research needed to develop technologies such as fuel cells, sourcing hydrogen both domestically and renewably. The transition of vehicles from gasoline to hydrogen is viewed as critical in reducing both carbon dioxide emissions and reliance on foreign oil.


Platinum applications in the electrical/electronics sector

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Hard disk coatings

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Thermocouples

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Fuel cells

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Benefits of stationary fuel cells

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Quiet. No moving parts

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Self-contained. No transmission lines

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Virtually no pollutants - if fuelled by hydrogen

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Co-generation of heat and power

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High quality power

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High fuel-to-energy efficiencies

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Can use a variety of hydrocarbon-based fuels

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The government`s involvement in developing a hydrogen-supply network is imperative. The three largest auto manufacturers in the USA have built working fuel cell vehicles and plan commercialisation by the middle of the current decade. Each of them, however, uses a different hydrogen source and none can be refuelled at existing gasoline stations.

The use of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) as power generators to feed residential electricity requirements carries the earliest commercial promise for this technology. As in the automotive sector, the call for improved energy security following the 2001 terrorist attacks has boosted the development of fuel cells for residential use. The California Power Administration will install several MegaWatts of fuel cell power starting this year. Portable fuel cell applications for powering laptop computers and mobile phones will make a significant contribution to the growth in demand in the second half of this decade.


Major applications of platinum in the glass market sector

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TV sets and computer monitors

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Liquid crystal displays (LCDs) for electronic equipment

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Glass fibre production



World demand for platinum in "other applications"

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%
Oxygen sensors 18
Spark plugs 20
Anti-cancer drugs 4
Catheters and pacemakers 15
Dental 16
Pollution control 7
Turbine blades 11
Other 9

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Total 100

Glass

Despite the fall in sales of personal computers in 2001, growth in other markets for LCD glass, such as digital cameras and mobile phones, led to a rise in production capacity of speciality glass and hence platinum consumption. This, together with higher requirements for fibreglass plants in the East, resulted in a 14% rise in platinum demand for glass manufacture in 2001.

Petroleum

The construction of new petroleum refining capacity in the Middle East resulted in an estimated 24% increase in platinum for this application to 130 000 ounces in 2001, despite stable demands in North America and Europe.

Other Applications

Increasingly severe emissions legislation in the major markets boosted demand for platinum in non-catalyst automotive applications in 2001. More stringent engine and emission control requirements have promoted the need for oxygen sensors containing platinum, while improvements in combustion and durability are aided by the use of platinum rather than cheaper alloys in sparkplugs. Dental demand for platinum grew in 2001 with the switch from palladium to gold alloys, some of which contained platinum. Other smaller applications, such as biomedical and stationary pollution control, continue to grow in importance.


Investment

After significant disinvestment in 2000 and the first half of 2001, buyers returned to the market in the second half of the year, when platinum prices were easing.

Lower prices from the end of July impacted sales of both bullion coins and large bars. Furthermore, the high rate of recycling of old coins and bars that occurred in 2000 slowed in 2001, contributing to the increase in net investment demand. In Japan, with the yen price of platinum trading at above the Y2 200/gram level until July, holders of large bars were active sellers in the first half of the year. Lower prices from August encouraged new investment, which is estimated to have balanced out the first half, resulting in zero net demand for large bars. In North America, demand for Platinum Eagles returned late in July and sales for the year are expected to exceed the 2000 level. Demand for platinum coins rose 25% to 50 000 ounces.


Other Metals

Platinum is the largest single contributor to Anglo Platinum`s revenues. However, the Group also produces significant amounts of the other PGMs (palladium, rhodium, iridium and ruthenium), gold and base metals (nickel, copper and cobalt). The contribution of these other metals to total revenue in 2001 was 50%.

Palladium

Palladium demand fell an estimated 24% in 2001, as higher prices at the beginning of the year drove consumers to seek alternatives. Total supply of palladium declined in 2001 to around 7,55 million ounces, despite an increase in South African production as expansions and new projects came on stream. A significant proportion of the estimated 4,5 million ounces of Russian palladium exported in the first three quarters of the year is believed to have failed to find buyers and is probably still held as stock in Switzerland. Russian shipments slowed from August, when the price weakened in response to excessive liquidity and Russia curtailed spot sales of the metal.

Autocatalyst

A concerted effort by auto manufacturers to reduce their reliance on palladium, and a drawdown of inventory, resulted in a 14% fall in gross demand for palladium in this application in 2001. Palladium`s role in emission control systems cannot be eliminated, especially in the reduction of HC levels, but, where possible, manufacturers are reducing palladium consumption by supplementing with platinum and/or rhodium.

Electronics

Palladium demand from the electronics sector in 2001 is estimated to have halved compared to the previous year. A decline in consumer demand for electronic goods and high inventory levels of electronic components at the end of 2000 contributed to this fall. As in the autocatalyst sector, high palladium prices have encouraged the development of technologies that could reduce reliance on the metal; a growing proportion of multi-layer ceramic capacitors is being produced using base metal technology or pastes containing less palladium than previously. Despite the recent fall in the palladium price, its premium to gold has resulted in a lower use in connectors, where substitution is relatively easy. Erratic supplies and price volatility affected other areas of electronics demand for palladium in 2001, such as in lead frames and hybrid integrated circuits.

Dental

The use of palladium in dental alloys declined by an estimated 16% to 690 000 ounces in 2001. In certain regions, governments subsidise particular alloys, but markets that lack these constraints can readily switch to more price-competitive alloys at any time. Some markets switched to gold alloys. North American demand fell in 2001 in direct response to higher prices. However, if the palladium price maintains its recently lower level, some reversal of this substitution may be possible. In Europe, demand fell 40% in 2001 and, in Japan, the 8,5% decline in demand was due to economic factors affecting the number of dental treatments.

Jewellery

Palladium demand in jewellery fabrication was negatively affected by the decline in platinum jewellery manufacture, especially in Japan. An increase in demand for white gold boosted palladium ­ used as a whitening agent in this alloy ­ but this effect was tempered as some markets moved towards the more internationally accepted higher platinum content alloys.

Rhodium

Demand for rhodium fell an estimated 31% in 2001, largely since part of auto manufacturers` needs was met from inventory built up in 2000. Supplies of rhodium declined to 579 000 ounces on the back of lower sales from Russia, which sold some 190 000 ounces of rhodium from stock in the previous year.

Rhodium requirements in autocatalysts rose in 2001 as auto manufacturers sought to reduce their use of palladium. However, some drew down inventories and purchases of rhodium for this sector declined some 31% to 548 000 ounces. In North America, sales to the industry fell despite slightly higher rhodium contents in autocatalysts. In Japan, purchases were lower as auto manufacturers used inventory material to meet more exacting emissions standards. With the extension of EURO III legislation to all new vehicles in Europe from the beginning of

2001, rhodium requirements increased by an estimated 2%. Implementation of stricter legislation in the East resulted in a higher rhodium demand from the rest of the world.

Demand for rhodium for industrial uses was boosted in 2001 by the construction of new oxo-alcohol capacity. Demand in other industrial sectors remained firm but little changed from the previous year.

Nickel

Stainless steel production accounts for some two-thirds of the world`s primary nickel consumption.

The stainless steel industry follows a notoriously volatile cycle, characterised by periods of double-digit growth and inventory building followed by sharp production cuts and destocking.

The nickel market, as a consequence, follows the stainless steel cycle very closely. 2001 saw the stainless steel market in a severe downturn, causing nickel prices to fall from a high of US$7 535/ton (May) to a low of US$4 420/ton (November). Indeed, as the USA moved into recession, nickel suffered too from weak demand in its other end uses. Superalloys were hit by a downturn in the aerospace sector, while the collapse of the IT sector adversely affected plating applications.

On the supply side, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) reported that total world production of nickel grew approximately 3,3% over the year. In addition to this, Norilsk announced early in 2001 that the year`s exports would be limited to 155 000 tons. However, it is now estimated that Russian exports over 2001, apart from a rumoured 70 000 ton stockpile held in warehouse, totalled 177 400 tons, worsening downward pressure on nickel prices.

The outlook for nickel is more positive in 2002 than in 2001. As an economic recovery gathers momentum during the course of 2002, stainless steel production is expected to move once more into a strong growth phase. This, together with a tightening of the stainless steel scrap market, will provide the platform for rising nickel prices, although this may only occur towards the end of the year.

Quelle: Anglo Platinum websites

[Shunga]

@DBrix

An Streit war mir nicht gelegen.

Da Dein Herz anscheinend am Silber hängt
ein kurzes Zitat aus "Ding Pin Meh",
dem Sittenroman der Ming Zeit (ca. 1350-1630)

"Nimm diese sechs Silberpäckchen - dreihundert
Unzen-, suche dir einen Geschäftsführer und eröffne
am Portal ein Weinstübchen!. Zahle mir aus Erkenntlichkeit
monatlich Zinsen! So haben wir beide davon Vorteil."

Lai-Wang warf sich aufs Antlitz, steckte die sechs
Päckchen zu sich und kehrte in seine Wohnung zurück."

500 lange Seiten und immer wieder die Beschreibung
einer Silberwährung.


@ Konradi

Dank für das Posting.
Ein guter Einstieg in das Thema Platin



Gruss

Shunga