Ich will nur 1% (pro Tag)! DAX-DOW-NASDAQ Aktien-Optionsscheine-Futures (deut./engl.)

Titel	letzter Beitrag	Aufrufe
Tages-Trading-Chancen am Donnerstag den 23.05.2024	vor 41 Minuten	4439
Evotec 566480, wohin geht die Reise???	heute 16:38	4324
Newron Pharma....Billig ,Billiger am Billigsten	vor 1 Stunde	4181
Nvidia!Ein Klares Langfristinvestment!	vor 15 Minuten	2903
NEL ASA - Elektrolyse-Spezialist aus Norwegen	vor 23 Minuten	2484
BioNTech - Ein deutscher Biotech-Riese erwacht	vor 1 Stunde	2421
Reibkuchens Goldforum - Politik, Märkte, Meinungen, Weltgeschehen mit Auswirkungen auf den Goldpreis	vor 47 Minuten	2231
Deutsche Small Caps - Basisinvestments eines Langfristdepots	vor 24 Minuten	1400

Platz	vorher	Wertpapier	Kurs	Perf. %	Anzahl
1.	1.	DAX	18.666,99	+0,09	94
2.	19.	NVIDIA	971,60	+10,93	65
3.	4.	Tesla	163,62	-1,77	52
4.	2.	Newron Pharmaceuticals	9,8700	-4,17	42
5.	16.	InnoCan Pharma	0,2090	+0,48	39
6.	7.	BioNTech	93,30	-1,22	34
7.	Neu!	Kontron	20,360	-1,36	33
8.	6.	Novavax	14,194	-2,27	30

schrieb am 18.12.02 14:25:53

Beitrag Nr. 1 ()

Dieser Thread soll globale und möglichst primäre Informationen liefern.

Erwünscht sind Informationen aller Art, insbesondere betreffend:

-Wirtschaftsindikatoren incl. der Erwartungen

-Einzelaktien aus DAX, DOW, und Nasdaq 100

-Pivot Punkte der Inidzes bzw. Futures

-Informationen zur Geldpolitik und Währungen

-Charts und Informationsquellen jeglicher Art

Flutet bitte meine Boardmailbox mit Vorschlägen zu Links für die Informationsbeschaffung!

schrieb am 18.12.02 14:31:36

Beitrag Nr. 2 ()

Hier erst Einmal ein Fahlplan bis Ende der Woche

Mittwoch:
Einzelhandelsumsätze Italien
10:30 Arbeitslosenzahlen Großbritannien
12:00 Konsumentenpreisindex EU
12:00 Arbeitskostenindex EU
14:00 Mortage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index
14:30 Trade Balance Oct

14:00 FedEx (erw. Fobes 0,79)
14:30 FedEx Earnings Conference Call
16:00 Bear Stearns Earnins Conference Call
Oracle Halbjahresbericht (erw. Forbes 0,08) => Mal sehen was SAP in Sympathie von den Zahlen hält?
Palm Halbjahresbericht

Donnerstag:
06:00 Monatsbericht der Bank of Japan => wenn sowas ansteht fragt man sich immer was man von an Übernachtpositionnen am Vortag eingehen möchte.
10:00 Verbrauchervertrauen Italien
10:30 Einzelhandelsumsätze Italien
12:00 Industrieproduktion EU
14:30 Initial Claims
16:00 Leading Indicators Nov => Gleich ein Haufen wichtiger Zahlen hintereinander. Spannender Tag, gemacht zum Geld verdienen.
18:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec
20:00 Treasury Budget Nov
22:30 Money Aggregates

Nike Halbjahresbericht und Analystenkonferenz => Wie wird Adidas in Sympathie reagieren?
15:30 Lehman Brothers Earnings Conference Call => mal sehen wie sich die Investmentbanken in dem hin- und her geschlagen haben.
17:00 Morgan Stanley Earnings Conference Call
18:00 Goldmann Sachs Earnings Conference Call
22:30 Cisco Systems Rednerserie

Freitag

Industrieaufträge Italien
Industrieumsätze Italien
08:45 privater Verbrauch Frankreich
08:50 Konsumentenpreisindex (revidiert) Frankreich
12:00 Außenhandel EU
14:30 GDP-Final Q3
14:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q3
14:30 Unternehmensgewinne USA (revidiert)

Thyssen Krup Jahreszahlen, Analystenkonferenz und Pressekonferenz => Tja der Stahl und die Zölle...

schrieb am 18.12.02 14:34:03

Beitrag Nr. 3 ()

***********************************************************
****************Mittwoch 18. Dezember 2002****************
******************************************************************

Einzelhandelsumsätze Italien
10:30 Arbeitslosenzahlen Großbritannien
12:00 Konsumentenpreisindex EU
12:00 Arbeitskostenindex EU
14:00 Mortage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index
14:30 Trade Balance Oct

14:00 FedEx (erw. Fobes 0,79)
14:30 FedEx Earnings Conference Call
16:00 Bear Stearns Earnins Conference Call
Oracle Halbjahresbericht (erw. Forbes 0,08) => Mal sehen was SAP in Sympathie von den Zahlen hält?
Palm Halbjahresbericht

schrieb am 18.12.02 14:41:41

Beitrag Nr. 4 ()

Italy Snap: Oct Nominal Retail Sales +2.0% Y/Y, SA +0.6% M/M

Oct Result: +2.0% y/y nsa, +0.6% m/m sa
Sep Result: -0.2% y/y nsa, unch. m/m sa
Aug Result: +1.0% y/y nsa, unch. m/m sa

By Gavin Jones

ROME (MktNews) - Italian unadjusted retail sales rose 2.0%
year-on-year in October, following a fall of 0.2% in September and a
1.0% gain in August, according to figures released Wednesday by national
statistics institute ISTAT.

ISTAT`s year-on-year retail sales series is measured in nominal
value terms and is therefore not adjusted for rises in consumer prices.

Italian inflation, according to the main domestic index (NIC), rose
2.7% year-on-year in October, implying that retail sales probably posted
a year-on-year decline in real terms, as has been the case through most
of this year.

However, ISTAT`s retail sales data are not closely watched by
analysts because, unlike new car registration data, they show no
correlation with consumer spending as published in quarterly GDP
statistics. Indeed ISTAT does not use its own retail sales data to
compile its private consumption statistics.

ISTAT says its retail sales data under-estimate true sales` growth
and is not reliable due to an outdated sample of outlets.

Starting with the January 2003 release, ISTAT says it will re-base
its index, with a 2000 base year to replace the current 1995 one. The
new index will entail a considerably higher weighting for large retail
outlets, which will make up some 23% of the index instead of 16% under
the current index.

The statistics institute`s seasonally adjusted month-on-month index
posted a strong 0.6% rise in October, rebounding from flat readings in
both September and August.

ISTAT officials tend to place more emphasis on the year-on-year
series in presenting the data.

October had 26.1 shop opening days, 0.1 more than October 2001,
ISTAT said.

schrieb am 18.12.02 15:07:27

Beitrag Nr. 5 ()

schrieb am 18.12.02 15:28:45

Beitrag Nr. 6 ()

TABELLE-Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Index im Dezember auf 87,1 gesunken
München, 18. Dez
Der Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Index für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft in Westdeutschland ist im
Dezember leicht gesunken. Das Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
(Ifo) in München gab am Mittwoch folgende Index-Werte für West-
und Ostdeutschland bekannt:

Westdeutschland DEZ 2002 NOV 2002

Geschäftsklima 87,1 87,3
Geschäftsbeurteilung 76,8 79,0
(rev. v. 79,1)
Geschäftserwartung 97,9 95,8 => Anstieg in den Geschäftserwartungen das ist auch im Osten zu sehen, dort wird sogar die aktuelle Situation besser beurteielt!!!
=> Bei der Osterweiterung der EU rückt Ostdeutschland ja auch mehr ins Zentrum von Europa.

Ostdeutschland

Geschäftsklima 97,2 95,0
Geschäftsbeurteilung 115,4 112,7
Geschäftserwartung 80,0 78,3
(rev. v. 78,4)

NOTE: Analysten hatten in einer Reuters-Umfrage für den
Berichtsmonat Dezember durchschnittlich einen Stand des
Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Indexes für Westdeutschland von 87,0
erwartet.

Germany Snap:Ifo Drops 7th Straight Mth On Current Conditions

Dec Result: 87.1
MNI Survey Median: 87.1
MNI Survey Range: 86.3 to 88.3
Previous Results: 87.3 (Nov), 87.7 (Oct), 88.2 (Sep), 88.7 (Aug)

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - The Ifo Institute`s west German business
sentiment index posted its seventh consecutive monthly drop in December,
as a surprise rise in future expectations was offset by a strong drop
in sentiment on current conditions, the institute announced Wednesday.

The west German sentiment index fell to 87.1 from 87.3 in November,
to its lowest level since January this year, in line with expectations.

But contrary to most analysts` expectations, the December drop in
the headline index was due to a deterioration of current conditions,
while expectations rose. Most analysts had expected business
expectations to deteriorate and current conditions to stabilize.

The west German current conditions subindex fell to 76.8 from 79.0
in November -- the first monthly drop since August 2002. The drop was
due largely to weaker conditions in the wholesale and retail sectors,
Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said. This may be an indication of weak
Christmas sales.

However, the west German business expectations subindex rose for
the first time since May, to 97.9 from 95.8 in November. The rise
occurred in all sectors -- manufacturing, retail and construction --
except for wholesale, Sinn said.

It is not immediately clear whether the ECB`s Dec. 5 rate cut
and/or lower oil prices helped boost the outlook. Further details of the
Dec. index are likely to be announced at Ifo`s press conference Thursday
to announce its new economic forecasts.

East German business sentiment, however, rose to 97.2 in December
from 95.0 in November, the first monthly rise since June. East German
current conditions rose to 115.4 from 112.7 in November, while the
expectations index rose to 80.0 from 78.3.

However, Sinn cautioned there is no evidence yet of a turnaround in
the east German economy.

=>

Die Ammis hatten offensichltich Erwarungen die um 0,1 höher waren als die Deutschen.

Stark ist die posivie Wendung im Osten und auch die aktuelle Situation und die Erwartungen sind gestiegen.

schrieb am 18.12.02 15:41:58

Beitrag Nr. 7 ()

EMU Data: Eurozone HICP; Pct Change History

Release for: November 2002 (final)
Release date: December 18, 2002

Index* M/M* Y/Y
1995=100 % Chg % Chg
Nov02 111.9 -0.1 2.2<= Konsumentenpreise sind gefallen das ist positiv für den Konsum.
Oct02 112.0 0.3 2.3
Sep02 111.7 0.3 2.1
Aug02 111.4 0.1 2.1
…

==> Hotel und Gaststätten sind aus meiner Sicht eh zu teuer geworden nach der Euro Umstellung, daher ist dieser Rückgang nur gut.
==> Energy Prices -1,7% wird es davon kann man aktuell aber nur träumen bei dem Anstieg der Ölpreise in den letzen Tagen. (aktuell ca. 28,90 USD für Brent Crude Oil)

schrieb am 18.12.02 15:58:41

Beitrag Nr. 8 ()

schrieb am 18.12.02 16:13:37

Beitrag Nr. 9 ()

United States Department of
COMMERCE NEWS
Washington, D.C. 20230

ECONOMICS
AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
------------
U.S. Census Bureau
Bureau of Economic Analysis

This release contains sensitive economic data not to be released before
8:30 a.m. Wednesday,
December 18, 2002

CB-02-162 Press Copy
FT-900 (02-10)

For information on goods contact:
U.S. Census Bureau:
Haydn R. Mearkle (301) 763-2246
Nick Orsini (301) 763-2311

For information on services contact:
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Technical: Christopher Bach (202) 606-9545
Media: Larry Moran (202) 606-2649

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
October 2002

Goods and Services

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the
Department of Commerce, announced today that total October exports of $82.0
billion and imports of $117.0 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $35.1 billion, $2.0 billion less than the $37.1 billion in
September, revised. October exports were $0.8 billion less than September
exports of $82.8 billion. October imports were $2.9 billion less than
September imports of $119.9 billion.

In October, the goods deficit decreased $1.9 billion from September to $39.4
billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion to $4.4 billion.
Exports of goods decreased $1.2 billion to $57.1 billion, and imports of goods
decreased $3.0 billion to $96.5 billion. Exports of services increased to
$24.9 billion from $24.6 billion, and imports of services increased to $20.5
billion from $20.4 billion.

Goods

The September to October change in exports of goods reflected decreases in
capital goods ($0.6 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.3 billion);
foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts,
and engines ($0.1 billion). An increase occurred in consumer goods
($0.1 billion). Other goods were virtually unchanged.

The September to October change in imports of goods reflected decreases in
capital goods ($1.4 billion); consumer goods ($1.3 billion); automotive
vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages
($0.2 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion). An increase occurred in
industrial supplies and materials ($0.8 billion).

Services

Services exports increased $0.3 billion from September to October. The
increase was mostly accounted for by increases in other private services
(which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services;
insurance services; and financial services) and travel. Changes in other
categories of services exports were small.

Services imports increased $0.2 billion from September to October. Other
transportation (which includes freight and port expenditure services) and
travel accounted for most of the increase. Changes in other categories of
services imports were small.

Goods and Services Moving Average

For the three months ending in October, exports of goods and services averaged
$82.7 billion, while imports of goods and services averaged $119.4 billion,
resulting in an average trade deficit of $36.8 billion. For the three months
ending in September, the average trade deficit was $36.8 billion, reflecting
average exports of $83.1 billion and average imports of $119.9 billion.

Selected Not Seasonally Adjusted Goods Details

The October figures showed surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Australia
$0.6 (for September $0.5), Singapore $0.3 (deficit of $0.1), Hong Kong $0.1
($0.3), and Egypt $0.1 ($0.1). Deficits were recorded,in billions of dollars,
with China $9.5 ($10.3),Western Europe $8.7 ($7.0), Japan $6.5 ($5.9), Canada
$4.3($4.6), OPEC $3.6 ($2.9), Mexico $3.5 ($3.0), Taiwan $1.1 ($1.2), Korea
$1.1 ($1.1), Brazil $0.5 ($0.4), and Argentina $0.1 ($0.1).

Advanced technology products (ATP) exports were $15.7 billion in October and
imports were $17.5 billion, resulting in a deficit of $1.8 billion. October
exports were $0.8 billion more than the $14.8 billion in September, while
imports were $0.4 billion more than the $17.1 billion in September.

Revisions

Goods carry-over in October was $0.3 billion (0.5 percent) for exports and
$0.7 billion (0.7 percent) for imports. For September, revised export
carry-over was $0.2 billion (0.3 percent), revised down from $0.5 billion
(0.9 percent). For September, revised import carry-over was $0.1 billion
(0.1 percent), revised down from $1.1 billion (1.1 percent).

Services exports and imports for April through September 2002 were revised to
incorporate revisions to BEA`s quarterly U.S. international transactions
accounts, which were released December 12 (see page 30 for the monthly revision
policy). The revised quarterly and monthly estimates are based on more
complete source data than were available previously. For services exports,
the largest revisions over the entire period were in other private services,
royalties and license fees, and travel. For services imports, the largest
revisions over the entire period were in royalties and license fees and other
private services.

Services exports for September were revised up $0.7 billion to $24.6 billion.
The revision was mostly accounted for by upward revisions in other private
services and royalties and license fees. Services imports for September were
revised up $0.3 billion to $20.4 billion. The revision was more than accounted
for by upward revisions in royalties and license fees and other private services.

Note: Ports located on the west coast of the United States were closed the
last two days of September and first eight days of October due to a labor
dispute. The impact cannot be separately identified in the source data.

Den Tabellenteil habe ich mal weggelassen.

schrieb am 18.12.02 16:17:32

Beitrag Nr. 10 ()

schrieb am 18.12.02 16:36:48

Beitrag Nr. 11 ()

8:45AM Bear Stearns tops Q4 consensus (BSC) 61.85: Reports Q4 earnings of $1.36 per share, $0.12 better than the Multex consensus. Revs rose 0.6% year/year to $1.13 bln vs the $1.17 bln consensus. Excluding the impact of a merchant banking investment, EPS was $1.50.

schrieb am 18.12.02 16:38:55

Beitrag Nr. 12 ()

7:29AM FedEx beats by $0.02; cautious on Q3 (FDX) 53.60: Reports Q2 earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus. Revs rose 10.4% to $5.67 bln vs the $5.52 bln consensus. Given the weaker than expected U.S. economic growth in the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, co sees Q3 EPS of $0.45-$0.55 (consensus $0.54). FDX believes that its full yr forecast of $2.77 is still achievable with a modest economic recovery in the co`s fiscal 2nd-half. Capital expenditures for fiscal 2003 are expected to be $1.7 bln, a reduction of $200 mln from the initial forecast.

schrieb am 18.12.02 17:13:31

Beitrag Nr. 13 ()

Wenn ich mir die News so anschaue, dann muß ich sagen das die Indizes heute wohl nicht auf sie reagiert haben.

Dax -96 => Teilt offensichtlich nicht den ifo Optimismus
DOW und Nasdaq haben offensichltich viel Irak Angst nun in den Kursen, und das wo Allan Greenspan heute ganze 6 Mrd. bereithält.

Eigenltich eine Callindikation aber gegen Angst calle ich nicht.

schrieb am 18.12.02 17:23:53

Beitrag Nr. 14 ()

Das fixtive Depot wird auf 10.000 EUR gesetzt.

schrieb am 18.12.02 17:31:41

Beitrag Nr. 15 ()

DEC FDAX 10 Punkte über DAX :eek:

schrieb am 18.12.02 17:45:36

Beitrag Nr. 16 ()

Venezuela bringt das Öl auf 30 USD Brent Crude.

schrieb am 18.12.02 18:06:22

Beitrag Nr. 17 ()

US FANNIE MAE: SEE Q1 `03 CONTINUING SEE-SAW WEAK/STRONG DAT…

=> Sowas kann man nur sehen wenn man Mid-Term den Eindruck hat, das es bergauf geht.
=> Also keine Double Dip Recession mehr.

=> Posivite News

schrieb am 18.12.02 18:12:06

Beitrag Nr. 18 ()

Ich meine Kaufprogramme zu sehen.

schrieb am 18.12.02 18:14:15

Beitrag Nr. 19 ()

In Zukunft mit Inidkation DAX 3052

schrieb am 18.12.02 18:42:40

Beitrag Nr. 20 ()

Wenigstens der S&P ist stark.

schrieb am 18.12.02 19:23:01

Beitrag Nr. 21 ()

Doppelboden im DAX?

schrieb am 18.12.02 19:26:00

Beitrag Nr. 22 ()

schrieb am 18.12.02 19:43:18

Beitrag Nr. 23 ()

Upgrade für Nortel von UBS

schrieb am 18.12.02 19:57:57

Beitrag Nr. 24 ()

DAX ist viel zu tief, wer da wohl dahinter steckt?

schrieb am 18.12.02 20:11:10

Beitrag Nr. 25 ()

Der FDAX ist von 3030 dann auch noch spontan hochgehüpft auf auf FDAX 3040.

DAX vor Auktion 3034,64
DAX nach Auktion 3022,68

=> Und der DAX ist zu tief.

schrieb am 18.12.02 20:37:44

Beitrag Nr. 26 ()

So hier mal ein paar Gründe warum es ist wie es ist.

740320 Citibank Knock-Out Long 3000 => Den gibt es glaube ich auch noch nicht so lange.
740318 Citibank Knock-Out Long 2975

von der DB habe ich folgenden gesehen:
739950 DB Knock-Out Long 3000

und als Short von der DB der Nächste:
743723 DB Knock-Out Put 3250

=> Ich hoffe die Angaben stimmen so weit, da ich überwiegend Futures handel.

Interessant als Short zum Traden:
743718 von DB mit KO bei 3400
743504 von DB mit KO bei 3550
739903 von DB mit KO bei 3650

Interessant als Long zum Traden:
681943 von DB mit KO bei 2500 => Das Aufgeld ist aber 2,5%
Die anderen Calls sind nicht so interessant sie sich zu nahe am aktuellen Dax bewegen.

So für mich ist der Tradingtag zu Ende.

Noch sind wir zwar nicht dabei 1% zu machen, aber gute Vorbereitung ist alles.

schrieb am 18.12.02 20:40:46

Beitrag Nr. 27 ()

14:28 ET Gold dealer files suit against Barrick and JP Morgan : Blanchard and Co issues press release stating that it has filed a $2 bln suit accusing Barrick Gold and J.P. Morgan Chase of unlawfully combining to actively manipulate the price of gold and making $2 bln in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors. Blanchard says it is the largest retail dealer in physical gold in the U.S.

==> Wahnsinn JP Morgan hat 2 Mrd. in Gold gemacht.

schrieb am 18.12.02 23:45:44

Beitrag Nr. 28 ()

==> Und die nachbörslich Entwicklung zeigt der Dax war zu billig.

=> Die Unternehmen werden wieder profitabel wie Palm zeigt. Auch wenn die Umsätze erst wieder kommen müssen.

Oracle: +0,10 USD erw. +0,08 (Zacks) Umsatz -3,0%
Palm: +0,19 USD erw. -0,13 (Zacks) Umsatz -8,8% => damit 0,34 USD pro Aktie über den Erwartungen!!!

==> Aus meiner Sicht sehr erfreuliche Zahlen.

Auch Microchip hat seine Gewinnerwarungen bekräftigt.
Micron wurde im Credit Rating von Standard & Poor`s heruntergenommen. => Das ist wohl wegen des Marktanteilverlustes und der schlechten Zahlen von gestern dort schon eingepreist.

schrieb am 18.12.02 23:54:02

Beitrag Nr. 29 ()

************************************************************…

==> Wir starten erst mal mit guten Vorgaben von gestern Abend.

==> Weiterhin haben wir noch ein paar News von gestern die gar nicht so schlecht waren, die negativ beantwortet wurden.
==> Doch leider gibt es den Irakkonflikt und hier wurden für heute soweit, ich das mitbekommen habe, ein Termin für eine Äußerung von Powell angekündigt. Ist daher die Frage ob man hier noch abwartend ist, oder bis dahin erst mal wieder long geht. Da sich die Nachrichtenlage langsam zum positiven ändert, könnten die Banken noch ein Interesse an der Beseitigung der KO Zertifikate haben.
==> Für den Moment denke ich eher LONG.

schrieb am 18.12.02 23:57:15

Beitrag Nr. 30 ()

Palm:

Oracle:

==> Es ist klar zu sehen, das der Markt negativere Zahlen erwartet hat!!!

schrieb am 19.12.02 08:03:28

Beitrag Nr. 31 ()

meine tante hat heute geburtstag.

gruss

hahnebüchen

schrieb am 19.12.02 10:21:20

Beitrag Nr. 32 ()

exports particularly in the first half. But in fiscal 2003 growth
is unlikely to be as strong," Tetsuo Saito, director for the
economic outlook at the Cabinet Office, told reporters.
Japan`s GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 3.2 percent in
the July-September quarter and 3.6 percent in April-June.
Saito said the relatively conservative estimates for the
whole of 2002/03 meant a contraction in the coming months was not
ruled out, although no recession was expected.
A year ago, the government made a forecast of zero growth for
the current fiscal year, which now appears almost certain to be
met. But on Wednesday, the government downgraded its economic
assessment in its monthly report for the second consecutive
month, citing slowing exports amid global economic uncertainty.

CLOSE EYE ON BANKS
The new forecasts showed that the contribution of external
demand to GDP in 2003/04 is seen at plus 0.1 percent, compared
with plus 0.5 percent this year.
The report containing the forecasts said the government needs
to keep a close eye on the impact of banks` efforts to dispose of
their bad loan mountain and on overseas economic trends.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has
forecast U.S. economic growth of a real 2.3 percent in calendar
2002 and 2.6 percent in 2003. The World Bank`s forecast for China
-- now the fastest-growing market for Japanese exports -- is 7.7
percent growth in 2002 and 7.5 percent in 2003.
The European Commission`s forecast for the 15-nation European
Union economy stands at 1.0 percent for 2002 and 2.0 percent for
2003.
The Japanese report said the government expects the overall
global economy to gradually recover next year, citing it as a
supportive factor for Japan`s economic outlook.
It also said a low level of inventories meant a rebound in
exports would directly boost output in Japan.
Reliance on exports means Japan`s economy would be vulnerable
to a rise in the yen, which would make Japanese manufacturers
less competitive.
The forecasts assumed a dollar/yen exchange rate of 121.50
yen (the average of the actual rates in November) for 2003/04 and
122.50 yen (the average for April-November) for this fiscal year.
The report also said improving corporate earnings and pent-up
demand for new facilities should help an upturn in capital
spending, although the recovery would be tempered by the fallout
from banking reform, manufacturers` exodus to overseas production
centres and continued restructuring.

SPENDING SUBDUED
Corporate capital expenditures are forecast to rise 1.8
percent in 2003/04, versus a projected fall of 4.0 percent this
fiscal year.
One factor that has subdued capital spending in Japan over
the past few years has been protracted falls in prices.
The government forecast the consumer price index will fall
0.4 percent in 2003/04. For this year, it forecast a 0.8 percent
decline, which will make it the fourth straight year of
deflation.
The government and the Bank of Japan have been trying to
arrest deflation for years with little success.
And some factors that may support the CPI next year are not
good news -- Saito said CPI may be underpinned by an expected
rise in medical expenses due to a change in the national health
insurance system and a likely end to cuts in electric utility
charges." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Japan forecasts 0.6 pct GDP growth in FY 2003/04
By Shinichi Kishima
TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Japanese government said on
Thursday it expects the economy to expand for a second straight
year in fiscal 2003/04, though growth will slow in the absence of
a strong export boom such as was seen earlier this year.
The Cabinet Office, in a forecast released ahead of the draft
budget for the fiscal year starting next April, said gross
domestic product (GDP) would grow 0.6 percent in real terms,
compared with a projected 0.9 percent expansion this fiscal year.
In nominal terms, before taking into account price changes,
GDP is forecast to contract by 0.2 percent in 2003/04, compared
with a contraction of 0.6 percent this year, reflecting
persistent downward pressure on prices.
"Growth in fiscal 2002 was relatively good, thanks to brisk
exports particularly in the first half. But in fiscal 2003 growth
is unlikely to be as strong," Tetsuo Saito, director for the
economic outlook at the Cabinet Office, told reporters.
Japan`s GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 3.2 percent in
the July-September quarter and 3.6 percent in April-June.
Saito said the relatively conservative estimates for the
whole of 2002/03 meant a contraction in the coming months was not
ruled out, although no recession was expected.
A year ago, the government made a forecast of zero growth for
the current fiscal year, which now appears almost certain to be
met. But on Wednesday, the government downgraded its economic
assessment in its monthly report for the second consecutive
month, citing slowing exports amid global economic uncertainty.

CLOSE EYE ON BANKS
The new forecasts showed that the contribution of external
demand to GDP in 2003/04 is seen at plus 0.1 percent, compared
with plus 0.5 percent this year.
The report containing the forecasts said the government needs
to keep a close eye on the impact of banks` efforts to dispose of
their bad loan mountain and on overseas economic trends.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has
forecast U.S. economic growth of a real 2.3 percent in calendar
2002 and 2.6 percent in 2003. The World Bank`s forecast for China
-- now the fastest-growing market for Japanese exports -- is 7.7
percent growth in 2002 and 7.5 percent in 2003.
The European Commission`s forecast for the 15-nation European
Union economy stands at 1.0 percent for 2002 and 2.0 percent for
2003.
The Japanese report said the government expects the overall
global economy to gradually recover next year, citing it as a
supportive factor for Japan`s economic outlook.
It also said a low level of inventories meant a rebound in
exports would directly boost output in Japan.
Reliance on exports means Japan`s economy would be vulnerable
to a rise in the yen, which would make Japanese manufacturers
less competitive.
The forecasts assumed a dollar/yen exchange rate of 121.50
yen (the average of the actual rates in November) for 2003/04 and
122.50 yen (the average for April-November) for this fiscal year.
The report also said improving corporate earnings and pent-up
demand for new facilities should help an upturn in capital
spending, although the recovery would be tempered by the fallout
from banking reform, manufacturers` exodus to overseas production
centres and continued restructuring.

SPENDING SUBDUED
Corporate capital expenditures are forecast to rise 1.8
percent in 2003/04, versus a projected fall of 4.0 percent this
fiscal year.
One factor that has subdued capital spending in Japan over
the past few years has been protracted falls in prices.
The government forecast the consumer price index will fall
0.4 percent in 2003/04. For this year, it forecast a 0.8 percent
decline, which will make it the fourth straight year of
deflation.
The government and the Bank of Japan have been trying to
arrest deflation for years with little success.
And some factors that may support the CPI next year are not
good news -- Saito said CPI may be underpinned by an expected
rise in medical expenses due to a change in the national health
insurance system and a likely end to cuts in electric utility
charges.

==> Japan ist ebenso wie die USA aktuell positiv gestimmt, und auch hier ist ein nochmaliges absinken in eine Doubble Dip wohl eher unwahrscheinlich.
==> Positive News.

schrieb am 19.12.02 10:23:01

Beitrag Nr. 33 ()

it may continue to be slow, rather than the improved environment
that we had expected," an Oracle Japan spokesman said.
The firm also said it expected to book a special loss of
around 1.6 billion yen ($13.25 million) as it looks to trim
around 150 workers to get its workforce down to 1,500 by March.
For the full year to May, Oracle Japan slashed its net profit
forecast by 28.3 percent to 10.9 billion yen, while cutting its
revenue forecast by eight percent to 81.5 billion yen.
The new full-year net profit forecast would represent a 38.1
percent drop from last year, while sales would be down 5.6
percent. Oracle Japan also cut its full-year dividend forecast to
85 yen from 120 yen. It paid a dividend of 100 yen last year.
Oracle Japan raised its first-half group net profit forecast
by 25 percent to six billion yen. It also upped its first-half
sales forecast by 6.5 percent to 39.3 billion yen.
The firm said it was seeing better-than-expected sales in
almost all business areas in the first half, while cost cutting
was progressing well.
The new first-half forecasts would still represent a 36.8
percent year-on-year fall in group net profit and a 10.4 percent
drop in revenues.
The once high-flying Japanese company`s diminishing prospects
have been reflected in the share price, which ended trading
before the announcement down 1.2 percent at 2,885 yen, close to a
lifetime low of 2,800 yen hit last month.
Oracle Japan`s shares were listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
in April 2000.
The full-year revision came after Oracle Japan`s parent on
Wednesday posted quarterly earnings and revenues that beat its
cautious forecasts and said it believed it would return to
growth." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Oracle Japan raises H1 forecast, slashes full-year
TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Oracle Corp Japan <4716.T>, a
subsidiary of Oracle Corp (ORCL.O) , raised its first-half
forecasts on Thursday on solid sales and cost cuts, but cut its
full-year outlook due to continued sluggish corporate spending.
The new full-year forecast would mark a second consecutive
annual fall in revenue and profits following Oracle Japan`s first
ever year-on-year declines in the year that ended in May, when
the firm was hit by a brutal slump in IT spending.
The unit of the world`s second-largest software maker had
forecast in July that corporate spending would stay sluggish in
the first half, but would pick up markedly in the second, when it
expected to book 58 percent of its revenues.
But Oracle Japan said on Thursday that while the first half
was looking better than it initially hoped, concerns were growing
about the rest of the year.
"Corporate spending for the second half is now looking like
it may continue to be slow, rather than the improved environment
that we had expected," an Oracle Japan spokesman said.
The firm also said it expected to book a special loss of
around 1.6 billion yen ($13.25 million) as it looks to trim
around 150 workers to get its workforce down to 1,500 by March.
For the full year to May, Oracle Japan slashed its net profit
forecast by 28.3 percent to 10.9 billion yen, while cutting its
revenue forecast by eight percent to 81.5 billion yen.
The new full-year net profit forecast would represent a 38.1
percent drop from last year, while sales would be down 5.6
percent. Oracle Japan also cut its full-year dividend forecast to
85 yen from 120 yen. It paid a dividend of 100 yen last year.
Oracle Japan raised its first-half group net profit forecast
by 25 percent to six billion yen. It also upped its first-half
sales forecast by 6.5 percent to 39.3 billion yen.
The firm said it was seeing better-than-expected sales in
almost all business areas in the first half, while cost cutting
was progressing well.
The new first-half forecasts would still represent a 36.8
percent year-on-year fall in group net profit and a 10.4 percent
drop in revenues.
The once high-flying Japanese company`s diminishing prospects
have been reflected in the share price, which ended trading
before the announcement down 1.2 percent at 2,885 yen, close to a
lifetime low of 2,800 yen hit last month.
Oracle Japan`s shares were listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
in April 2000.
The full-year revision came after Oracle Japan`s parent on
Wednesday posted quarterly earnings and revenues that beat its
cautious forecasts and said it believed it would return to
growth.

==> Das sollte sich positv auf SAP auswirken.

schrieb am 19.12.02 10:37:45

Beitrag Nr. 34 ()

ITALY NOV NON-EU IMPORTS +4.5% Y/Y TO E9.265 BLN
ITALY ISAE:…

==> Italien sieht nicht gut aus was das Verbrauchervertrauen angeht. Auch die Ausblickskomponente ist nicht gut. Aber immerhin gibt es hier noch einen Außenhandelsüberschuß beim Handel mit nicht EU Ländern.

schrieb am 19.12.02 10:42:46

Beitrag Nr. 35 ()

Die LONG Position wäre damit auch beendet.

Morgen ist dreifacher Verfallstag und damit erst mal eine abwartende Haltung.

schrieb am 19.12.02 10:49:09

Beitrag Nr. 36 ()

UK BSA: NOV SA MORT APPROVALS +STG3.489 BN V MAR +STG3.438 B…

==> Die Britten kaufen immer noch, und auch die Hypotheken sehen vielversprechend aus.
==> Gute News

schrieb am 19.12.02 10:58:19

Beitrag Nr. 37 ()

Ein Blick auf das Öl zeigt die angespannte Situation.

schrieb am 19.12.02 11:02:12

Beitrag Nr. 38 ()

=> Gold hingegen ist optimistischer gestimmt.

schrieb am 19.12.02 11:47:30

Beitrag Nr. 39 ()

Geopolitical uncertainties and oil price developments continue to
weigh on the economic outlook, although Ifo said its forecasts assume
no major military conflict in Iraq even if the conflict there were to
persist well into next year. Crude oil prices are expected to average
about $25 in 2003 but could be above that level in the first few months.

Stock market valuations have probably bottomed out, Ifo said. But
it warned that negative wealth effects and the knock on confidence will
take some time to wear off.

Ifo said it expects the world economic outlook to improve gradually
next year, with the global picture to be determined by the U.S. economy.
However, three is still a risk that the U.S. current account and budget
deficits could harm confidence in the dollar, with the attendant risk of
a new stock market plunge and a depreciation of the U.S. currency that
could have a "considerable negative impact" on the global economy.

German economic signals continue to be "mixed," Ifo said, noting
that while industrial production rose in the first three quarters of
this year, preliminary data showed that it fell in October.

The December decline in Ifo`s business sentiment index -- the
seventh straight fall was reported on Wednesday -- was in large part
caused by uncertainty and unhappiness with the German government`s plans
for a series of tax and social contribution hikes, Ifo said.

German growth will be more or less flat in 1Q 2003, Ifo said,
citing the restrictive impact of the government`s fiscal consolidation
efforts. Uncertainty over Berlin`s tax plans is depressing consumer and
investor confidence, and the dampening impact on growth will probably
fade only gradually in the further course of next year, Ifo said.

In the process, German capacity utilization levels won`t bottom out
until the second quarter of next year, after which they will begin to
rise strongly, Ifo said. However, spending on equipment investments may
have already bottomed out.

Germany`s labor market has not yet hit bottom, Ifo said, predicting
that employment will continue to recede until the middle of next year,
albeit at a slower rate than before. Despite a decline late next year,
average unemployment is likely to rise to 4.22 million in 2003, up from
4.06 million in 2002 and 3.86 million in 2001.

Ifo now sees Germany`s total public sector budget deficit falling
to 2.8% of GDP next year from 3.6% in 2002. However, it warned that
Berlin will have a "safety margin" of only a bit more than E4 billion
from the 3% limit spelled out in the EU Stability and Growth Pact.

"Therefore, there is a danger that this limit could be exceeded
again if the aimed-for reduction in tax subsidies and planned savings in
the health system can`t be achieved," Ifo said.

As to German price developments, Ifo now sees the national CPI
increasing by an average of 1.3% this year and next. Those levels are
down from 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, in the six institutes` joint
November forecast.

According to Ifo, the risks to this German inflation forecast are
largely on the downside.

"The risks that could be expected with a downward deviation of the
inflation rate are currently much higher than the risks that would
emerge with a deviation to the upside," Ifo said.

As to the euro area, Ifo left unchanged its real GDP growth
forecast for 2002 at +0.8% but lowered its 2003 projection to +1.4% from
the six institutes` joint forecast of +1.8%. Eurozone production will
start on a very slow footing next year before gradually picking up in
the further course of 2003, the Munich-based institute said.

Ifo left unchanged its forecast for eurozone average HICP inflation
this year at 2.2% but hiked its 2003 forecast to 1.9% from an earlier
1.8%.

The text of the Ifo report did not offer a forecast for ECB
interest rates, saying only that it expected eurozone monetary policy to
remain "moderately expansive" in 2003. The institute repeated its call
for the ECB to lift its price stability ceiling to 2.5% from 2.0%." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">11:25:59

MNSI-IFO Cuts Germany GDP Fcasts, Warns `03 Budget Could Exceed 3%

MUNICH (MktNews) - Germany`s respected Ifo economics institute has
cut its forecasts for the country`s economic growth in 2002 and 2003 and
warned that while its main forecast sees the total budget deficit
falling below 3% of GDP of next year, there is a risk that level could
be breached.

Ifo said it was lowering its 2002 growth forecast to just +0.2%,
only half the rate projected by Germany`s six major economics institutes
in October. For 2003 Ifo now expects growth of 1.1%, down from 1.4%.

According to Ifo, Q4 growth is likely to come in at an annualized,
seasonally adjusted rate of 0.7% and be roughly flat in Q1 2003. Ifo
stressed that its forecast is clouded with "considerable" risks.

Geopolitical uncertainties and oil price developments continue to
weigh on the economic outlook, although Ifo said its forecasts assume
no major military conflict in Iraq even if the conflict there were to
persist well into next year. Crude oil prices are expected to average
about $25 in 2003 but could be above that level in the first few months.

Stock market valuations have probably bottomed out, Ifo said. But
it warned that negative wealth effects and the knock on confidence will
take some time to wear off.

Ifo said it expects the world economic outlook to improve gradually
next year, with the global picture to be determined by the U.S. economy.
However, three is still a risk that the U.S. current account and budget
deficits could harm confidence in the dollar, with the attendant risk of
a new stock market plunge and a depreciation of the U.S. currency that
could have a "considerable negative impact" on the global economy.

German economic signals continue to be "mixed," Ifo said, noting
that while industrial production rose in the first three quarters of
this year, preliminary data showed that it fell in October.

The December decline in Ifo`s business sentiment index -- the
seventh straight fall was reported on Wednesday -- was in large part
caused by uncertainty and unhappiness with the German government`s plans
for a series of tax and social contribution hikes, Ifo said.

German growth will be more or less flat in 1Q 2003, Ifo said,
citing the restrictive impact of the government`s fiscal consolidation
efforts. Uncertainty over Berlin`s tax plans is depressing consumer and
investor confidence, and the dampening impact on growth will probably
fade only gradually in the further course of next year, Ifo said.

In the process, German capacity utilization levels won`t bottom out
until the second quarter of next year, after which they will begin to
rise strongly, Ifo said. However, spending on equipment investments may
have already bottomed out.

Germany`s labor market has not yet hit bottom, Ifo said, predicting
that employment will continue to recede until the middle of next year,
albeit at a slower rate than before. Despite a decline late next year,
average unemployment is likely to rise to 4.22 million in 2003, up from
4.06 million in 2002 and 3.86 million in 2001.

Ifo now sees Germany`s total public sector budget deficit falling
to 2.8% of GDP next year from 3.6% in 2002. However, it warned that
Berlin will have a "safety margin" of only a bit more than E4 billion
from the 3% limit spelled out in the EU Stability and Growth Pact.

"Therefore, there is a danger that this limit could be exceeded
again if the aimed-for reduction in tax subsidies and planned savings in
the health system can`t be achieved," Ifo said.

As to German price developments, Ifo now sees the national CPI
increasing by an average of 1.3% this year and next. Those levels are
down from 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, in the six institutes` joint
November forecast.

According to Ifo, the risks to this German inflation forecast are
largely on the downside.

"The risks that could be expected with a downward deviation of the
inflation rate are currently much higher than the risks that would
emerge with a deviation to the upside," Ifo said.

As to the euro area, Ifo left unchanged its real GDP growth
forecast for 2002 at +0.8% but lowered its 2003 projection to +1.4% from
the six institutes` joint forecast of +1.8%. Eurozone production will
start on a very slow footing next year before gradually picking up in
the further course of 2003, the Munich-based institute said.

Ifo left unchanged its forecast for eurozone average HICP inflation
this year at 2.2% but hiked its 2003 forecast to 1.9% from an earlier
1.8%.

The text of the Ifo report did not offer a forecast for ECB
interest rates, saying only that it expected eurozone monetary policy to
remain "moderately expansive" in 2003. The institute repeated its call
for the ECB to lift its price stability ceiling to 2.5% from 2.0%.

==> Die News wurde eindeutig negativ beantwortet.
==> Aufgrund der amtierenden Regierung wird Deutschland aus seine schlechten Position nicht so schnell rauskommen.
==> Für USA und Japan bin ich positiver gestimmt.

==> Weiterhin wird darauf hingewiesen das in Deutschland das Risiko einer Double Dip Recession und von Deflation besteht. Die Regierung müsse ihre Ausgaben kürzen.

schrieb am 19.12.02 11:53:10

Beitrag Nr. 40 ()

So der Schein von der Citi ist dann wohl so gut wie ko.

Übungskauf=Papertrade: 1000 STK Infineon zu 7,04

schrieb am 19.12.02 11:58:27

Beitrag Nr. 41 ()

So der 3000 Knock out Call ist schon Geschichte von der Citi. Lange gab es ihn nicht.

schrieb am 19.12.02 12:08:12

Beitrag Nr. 42 ()

schrieb am 19.12.02 12:18:19

Beitrag Nr. 43 ()

Der 2975 Call ist nun auch Geschichte.

schrieb am 19.12.02 12:22:52

Beitrag Nr. 44 ()

2950 KO Scheine sind nun auch Geschichte.

Damit LONG Indikation 2950 FDAX Dez.

schrieb am 19.12.02 12:25:56

Beitrag Nr. 45 ()

Das hätte fett gedruckt gehört:

1 Kontrakt Long FDAX DEC 2950

schrieb am 19.12.02 13:14:11

Beitrag Nr. 46 ()

Ich bin ja erstaunt wie viele Longpositionen dieses Mal im Rollover bei den Futures von Dez nach März sind. Ich erinnere mich an den letzen Rollover von den Sep in die Dez Kontrakte, nach der Schröder Wahl, da waren es überwiegend Shortpositionen.

schrieb am 19.12.02 13:27:07

Beitrag Nr. 47 ()

Erwartungen für die Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe sind dieses mal bei 401.000.

==> Grob gesagt sprechen weniger als 400.000 für Aufschwung und mehr als 400.000 für einen Rückfall.

Einen Überblick von 1990 bis jetzt über die Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenversicherung gibt es hier:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/dol/day-icusa+1…

schrieb am 19.12.02 13:38:02

Beitrag Nr. 48 ()

Übungsverkauf: 1000 STK Infinoen 7,14 zu EUR.

Abrechung:
Kauf 1000 STK zu 7,04 zuzugl. 0,1% Provision: 7047,04
Verkauf 1000 STK zu 7,14 minus. 0,1% Provision: 7132,86
=> Übungsgewinn von 85,82 EUR => 1,2% vom Einsatz.
(Übungspapertrade zählt nicht für die Gewinne im Depot)

schrieb am 19.12.02 13:38:52

Beitrag Nr. 49 ()

Cover 1 Kontrakt Long FDAX DEC 2995

schrieb am 19.12.02 13:39:53

Beitrag Nr. 50 ()

DEPOTABRECHNUNG:
45 Punkte FDAX a 25 EUR minus 4 EUR Provision: +1121 EUR Gewinn.
Depotstand: 11.121 EUR.

schrieb am 19.12.02 13:51:12

Beitrag Nr. 51 ()

So nun mach ich erst mal eine Pause. Zahlen werden später aufgearbeitet.

schrieb am 19.12.02 14:10:46

Beitrag Nr. 52 ()

WO finde ich etwas über Kontrakte auf den FDAX bzw. handelbar wie OS??

schrieb am 19.12.02 19:13:35

Beitrag Nr. 53 ()

@Zockwithme

Zuerst einmal begrüße ich Dir recht herzlich hier in diesem Thread.

Da es auch andere interessiert hier etwas zum FDAX (gleich DAX Future). Bei Dax Future handelt es sich um Kontrakte, d.h. man kauft nicht etwas wie eine Aktie oder einen Optionsschein, sondern man geht eine Verpflichtung ein. Diese Kontrakte sind allerding hochliquide, so daß man sie fast jederzeit während der Handelszeit von kurz nach 9 Uhr bis 20 Uhr handeln kann. Da die Kontrakte hochliquide sind, ist der Spread meinst nur 0,5 Punkte. Was diesem Instrument seinen Vorteil gegenüber den OS verleiht. Der Nachteil liegt in der Handelszeit, die bei OS je nach Emittent größer sein kann.

Da ich bei dem Dax Future nichts kaufe, sondern eine Verpflichtung eingehe, muß ich dem Broker Geld zur Verfügung stellen, um so einen Kontrakt überhaupt eingehen zu können. Dieses ist die Marginanforderung. Diese wird zum einen von der Terminbörse Eurex festgelegt, zum anderen verlangen die Broker hiervon unterschiedliche Vielfache oder auch nur ein Teil davon, zum Teil abhängig von der Handelszeit.

Informationen gibt es dazu unter http://www.eurexchange.com/.

Hier unter Index Produkts und dann Produkt Specifications. Oder direkt unter diesem Link:
http://www.eurexchange.com/marketplace/products_specificatio…
Dort wird der FDAX von der offiziellen Site beschrieben.

Ich möchte ausdrücklich darauf hinweisen, daß diese Instrumente ein sehr hoches Risiko haben. Wer sie handelt sollte auch dafür sorgen nicht nur bei einem Broker zu sein um gegebenenfals bei Verbindungsproblemen oder Netzwerkproblemen noch über einen anderen Broker reagieren zu können.

Wo wir gerade bei der Eurex Site waren, möchte ich darauf hinweisen, das man hier auch die Positionen der Optionen (das sind Optionen und nicht Optionsscheine => diese werden von den Banken allerdings oft über Optionen abgesichert, wenn dieses nicht über Futures oder andere Instrumente geschieht) einsehen kann. Dieses ist von Belang, da morgen ein dreifacher Verfallstag (=trippel whitching day) ist. Die Links direkt für die Dezember Optionen direkt sind:
Puts: http://www.eurexchange.com/index2.html?dq&5&cgi/eurexDQ?grou…
Calls: http://www.eurexchange.com/index2.html?dq&5&cgi/eurexDQ?grou…

Ich hoffe ich habe Dir damit ein wenig weiterhelfen können. Für weitere Fragen bin ich immer offen, wenn sie den Rahmen nicht sprengen.

schrieb am 19.12.02 19:30:25

Beitrag Nr. 54 ()

But he did describe last week`s sharp rise as a "bit of an
anomaly."

Initial claims for the December 7 week were revised to 444,000, up
86,000 from the prior week and 3,000 higher than the originally reported
441,000.

The four-week moving average rose 12,750 to 400,750 in the Dec. 14
week.

Unadjusted claims fell 66,122 to 481,096, above the 440,822 level
reported in the comparable week in 2001.

Continuing claims rose sharply in the Dec. 7 week, gaining 229,000
to 3.497 million. The increase was the largest upward move since
November 1990.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7% for the
week ended Dec. 7, up from 2.6% in the previous week, and down from 2.8%
a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is roughly half
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

For the week of Nov. 30, 787,977 jobless were enrolled in the
temporary extended unemployment claims benefits program. These benefits
are set to expire on Dec. 28, as Congress adjourned for the year without
approving a further extension of the program.

President Bush has urged Congress to renew the program promptly
once lawmakers reconvene in early January." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US INITIAL CLAIMS 4-WK AVG +12,750 TO 400,750 IN DEC 14 WEEK
US NSA JOBLESS CLAIMS -66,122 TO 481,096 IN DEC 14 WEEK
US CONTINUING CLAIMS +229,000 TO 3.497 MLN IN DEC 7 WEEK
US INIT CLAIMS SURV WEEK COMP:433K DEC14 VS 382K NOV16; +51K
US INITIAL CLAIMS REV TO +86K TO 444K IN DEC 7 WK (PREV 441K)
US FED TEMPORARY BENEFITS PRG +55,520 TO 787,977 IN NOV 30 WK
US LBR DPT: DEC 21 INITIAL CLAIMS DATA RELEASE SCHED DEC 26

US Data: Unemployment Insurance Claims Summary

Figures for week ended: December 14, 2002
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment & Training Admin
New in thous, cont in mlns, seas adj Chg between survey weeks:
ContPayrolls
14-Dec-02 433 -11 400.75 12.75 NA NA 51 3.50 NA NA
07-Dec-02 444 86 388.00 10.75 3.497 229
30-Nov-02 358 -10 377.25 -9.75 3.268 -191
23-Nov-02 368 -14 387.00 -10.25 3.459 -151 Nov:
16-Nov-02 382 -19 397.25 -3.00 3.610 47 -32 -12.25 69 -40
09-Nov-02 401 4 400.25 -3.25 3.563 -81
02-Nov-02 397 -12 403.50 2.00 3.644 87
26-Oct-02 409 15 401.50 -3.75 3.557 -23
19-Oct-02 394 -20 405.25 -4.25 3.580 39 Oct:
12-Oct-02 414 25 409.50 -4.00 3.541 -150 -16 -10.50 -107 86
05-Oct-02 389 -35 413.50 -11.00 3.691 79
28-Sep-02 424 13 424.50 4.25 3.612 -37
21-Sep-02 411 -19 420.25 0.25 3.649 1 Sep:
14-Sep-02 430 -3 420.00 8.75 3.648 63 35 30.25 84 -84
07-Sep-02 433 26 411.25 10.50 3.585 40
31-Aug-02 407 -3 400.75 6.25 3.545 20
24-Aug-02 410 15 394.50 4.75 3.525 -39 Aug:
17-Aug-02 395 4 389.75 7.25 3.564 67 12 -2.25 72 123

US Jobless Claims Edge Down Slightly Dec. 14 from 8-Mo High

--No Special Factors Observed in This Week`s Decline, Labor Dept. Says
--Increase in Continuing Claims Biggest Jump in 12 Years

By Chris Middleton and Yali N`Diaye

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
eased off of last week`s 8-month high, slipping 11,000 to 433,000 in the
Dec. 14 week, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning.

There were no special factors driving the decline, Labor Department
Thomas Stengle said.

This week`s initial claims figure remained well above the consensus
forecast for Dec. 14 of a Market News International survey, which had
centered on a decrease of 31,000 initial claims to 410,000, with
forecasts ranging from 395,000 to 440,000.

An employment survey week comparison shows that initial claims rose
51,000 between Nov. 16, when they stood at 382,000 and Dec. 14.

Asked about the Dec. 14 decline, Labor Department analyst Thomas
Stengle said "there`s nothing we have that`s going to explain the drop."

But he did describe last week`s sharp rise as a "bit of an
anomaly."

Initial claims for the December 7 week were revised to 444,000, up
86,000 from the prior week and 3,000 higher than the originally reported
441,000.

The four-week moving average rose 12,750 to 400,750 in the Dec. 14
week.

Unadjusted claims fell 66,122 to 481,096, above the 440,822 level
reported in the comparable week in 2001.

Continuing claims rose sharply in the Dec. 7 week, gaining 229,000
to 3.497 million. The increase was the largest upward move since
November 1990.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7% for the
week ended Dec. 7, up from 2.6% in the previous week, and down from 2.8%
a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is roughly half
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

For the week of Nov. 30, 787,977 jobless were enrolled in the
temporary extended unemployment claims benefits program. These benefits
are set to expire on Dec. 28, as Congress adjourned for the year without
approving a further extension of the program.

President Bush has urged Congress to renew the program promptly
once lawmakers reconvene in early January.

==> Es waren mehr Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenversicherung als erwartet waren.
==> Allenfas der 4 Wochen Durchschnitt ist gerade noch bei 400.000. So daß man als Optimist noch nicht die Hoffnung aufgeben sollte. Man ist generell der Meinung daß hier eine Zahl von über 400.000 eine negative Wirtschaftsentwicklung mit sich bringt. An dieser Marke kratzen die Zahlen nun lang.
==> Positive ist das der Anstieg sich zur Vorwoche verlangsamt hat.
==> Zusammengefaßt wohl eher eine etwas negative News aufgrund der hohen Erwartungen an den Markt. Der starke anstieg der Dauerarbeitslosen ist jedoch ein deutlich negatives Zeichen.

schrieb am 19.12.02 19:39:06

Beitrag Nr. 55 ()

US Data: Leading Indicators Summary

Release for: November 2002
Source: Conference Board
Index base 1992=100 Ch. from prev. month (%)
Oct-02 Nov-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leading index 111.5 112.3 -0.4 0.1 0.7
Value reported last month 111.4 -- -0.4 0.0 --

Coincident index 114.9 115.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Lagging index 99.9 99.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.2
Ratio, Coincident/Lagging 115.0 115.3 -- -- 0.3

Net contributions of leading components, latest month:
Factory workweek 0.00 Init. unemployment claims 0.17
New orders, consumer goods -0.02 Vendor performance -0.10
New orders, nondef. cap. gds -0.03 Building permits -0.05
Stock prices 0.19 Money supply 0.18
10-yr/fed funds spread 0.17 Consumer expectations 0.13

Der Frühindikator war also +0,7 m/m, das war besser als die erwarteten +0,6 m/m.

==> Somit ist man hier wenigstens der Meinung, daß die Entwicklung in der Zukunft sich besser gestalten könnte. Ähnliches haben wir beim Ifo Index ja bereits besonders im Osten von Deutschland gesehen.

==> Leicht positive News.

schrieb am 19.12.02 19:46:08

Beitrag Nr. 56 ()

US Data: Philadelphia Fed Index -- Summary Table

Release for: December 2002
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Market News International
Diffusion Indexes, Seasonally Adjusted

Current Conditions ! 6-Month Outlook
Dec02 Nov02 Oct02 Sep02 ! Dec02 Nov02 Oct02 Sep02

------------------------------------------------------------------------
General Business !
Conditions 7.2 6.1 -13.1 2.3 ! 49.7 49.0 51.8 46.9
New Orders 9.3 11.0 -1.3 5.6 ! 42.3 42.4 46.3 46.3
Shipments -3.5 1.5 -3.1 10.6 ! 45.6 49.4 49.8 46.2
Unfilled Orders -1.1 -3.9 -19.5 -3.6 ! 16.2 20.8 18.7 20.6
Delivery Time -3.4 -10.6 -12.6 -0.8 ! 3.2 1.1 5.7 3.3
Inventories 13.9 -6.1 -2.0 -9.7 ! 0.4 -3.9 -5.0 0.7
Prices Paid 15.1 13.0 14.3 19.6 ! 23.1 10.8 33.6 35.2
Prices Received 0.1 -8.6 -7.5 5.2 ! 22.5 12.4 18.7 12.0
Number of !
Employees -5.7 -0.2 -5.1 -4.9 ! 9.0 16.7 17.9 12.3
Avg. Employee !
Workweek -3.0 -9.0 -5.5 -0.3 ! 25.1 13.4 20.4 15.2
Capital !
Expenditures ---- ---- -- -- ! 9.1 25.8 14.5 13.4

==> Erwartungen habe ich hier von 5,0 bis hin zu 7,0 gesehen. Mit 7,2 ist der Index zumindest über den Erwarungen. Die New Order Komponente ist immer noch im Plus was positiv zu sehen ist, auch wenn der Anstieg weniger stark als im Vormonat ist. Die Rückläufigen Angestellten sind negativ zu sehen, aber diese Information haben wir ja schon über die Arbeitsmarktdaten bekommen. Schön ist das die Preise weiter steigen, und damit die Deflationsängste gemildert werden können.

==> positive News

schrieb am 19.12.02 20:16:35

Beitrag Nr. 57 ()

Dafür das Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs und Lehman Brothers heute alle über den Erwartungen waren, und die Daten nicht all zu schlecht waren, ist es eine Menge runter gegangen. So mein Eindruck.

DAX schließt bei 2961,40 und ist in der Schlußauktion leicht gestiegen.

Dann noch die Book-to-bill bei den Halbleitern über Erwartungen, und sogar mit angehobenen Oktober Zahlen:
07:45 ET SEMI book-to-bill comes in at 0.79 : SEMI reports that the book-to-bill for semiconductor equipment manufacturers came in at 0.79 for Nov. This figure is ahead of Salomon Smith Barney`s forecast of 0.71. The Oct reading was revised to 0.78 from 0.73.

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings(Three-month avg.)*** Bookings(Three-month avg.)*** Book-to-Bill
June 2002 927.1 1,171.3 1.26
July 2002 969.1 1,181.9 1.22
August 2002 994.8 1,016.8 1.02
September 2002 1,044.6 831.6 0.80
October 2002 (final) 999.9 775.1 0.78
November 2002 (prelim.) 991.3 778.6 0.79

The data contained in this release was compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks billings and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and orders of the chips themselves. The December 2002 Express Report is scheduled for publication on January 21, 2003 (subject to change).

Based in San Jose, Calif., SEMI is an international industry association serving more than 2,500 companies participating in the semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts November 2002 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.79

SAN JOSE, Calif., DECEMBER 18, 2002 -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $779 million in orders in November 2002 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.79, according to the November 2002 Express Report published today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.79 means that $79 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in November 2002 was $779 million. The bookings figure is slightly above the revised October 2002 level of $775 million yet 32 percent above the $589 million in orders posted in November 2001.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in November 2002 was $991 million. The billings figure is one percent below the revised October 2002 level of $1.0 billion and 21 percent above the November 2001 billings level of $817 million.

"The current booking levels, down from highs earlier in the year, reflect the uncertainty facing the semiconductor industry as the New Year approaches, although the overall mood in the industry is that conditions will improve in 2003," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "Following two years of severe contraction, the industry consensus is that the worldwide capital equipment market will grow 15 percent in 2003."

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings(Three-month avg.)*** Bookings(Three-month avg.)*** Book-to-Bill
June 2002 927.1 1,171.3 1.26
July 2002 969.1 1,181.9 1.22
August 2002 994.8 1,016.8 1.02
September 2002 1,044.6 831.6 0.80
October 2002 (final) 999.9 775.1 0.78
November 2002 (prelim.) 991.3 778.6 0.79

The data contained in this release was compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks billings and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and orders of the chips themselves. The December 2002 Express Report is scheduled for publication on January 21, 2003 (subject to change).

Based in San Jose, Calif., SEMI is an international industry association serving more than 2,500 companies participating in the semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets.

==> Ein positives Zeichen ist der steigende 3 Monatsdruchschnitt, und das dieses über den Erwartungen lag.

schrieb am 19.12.02 21:33:52

Beitrag Nr. 58 ()

Bis morgen Abend ist erst mal der Markt manipuliert und in den Händen der Banken.

Nasdaq 100: Der kann genauso bei 1000 wie bei 1050 selleln (mit weißer Kerze morgen). Da ist alles möglich.

DAX: Settelment bei 3000 wäre das einfachste. Aber die Optionen sprechen derzeit noch für tiefere Kurse. Die können aber auch im Tagesverlauf gesettelt werden. Also auch hier ist alles drinn.

Dow: Auch der kann plumsen oder steigen in kräfigem Umfang.

Bei der aktuellen hohen Volatitität, wie sie bei Verfallstagen zwar häufig ist, ist das Risiko sehr hoch zu handeln.

schrieb am 20.12.02 00:35:16

Beitrag Nr. 59 ()

Nike steigerte Quartalsgewinn um 18 Prozent
BEAVERTON - Die weltgrösste Sportschuhe-Hersteller Nike hat den Gewinn im
abgelaufenen Quartal um 18 Prozent und damit stärker als erwartet gesteigert.
Der Reingewinn betrug in den drei Monaten bis Ende November 152 Millionen
Dollar.
Der Gewinn pro Aktie stieg damit von 48 auf 57 Cent. Von Thomson First Call
befragte Analysten hatten im Durchschnitt einen Gewinn je Aktie von 56 Cent
erwartet.
Der Umsatz sei im zweiten Geschäftsquartal im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um acht
Prozent auf 2,5 Milliarden Dollar gestiegen, teilte Nike weiter mit. «Während
die Aufträge in den USA in diesem Quartal wie erwartet sanken, sind wir mit der
weltweiten Stärke unserer Marke zufrieden», sagte Nike-Chef Philip Knight.
Die US-Umsätze fielen im Berichtsquartal um 10 Prozent auf 1 Milliarde Dollar.
Dagegen stiegen sie in Europa um 35 Prozent und im Asien pazifischen Raum um 14
Prozent.

schrieb am 20.12.02 00:38:42

Beitrag Nr. 60 ()

************************************************************…

schrieb am 20.12.02 00:50:36

Beitrag Nr. 61 ()

Nike:

Gute News für Nike. Aber schlechte News für Footlocker. (Da gibts eine Menge von in Deutschland.)

5:30PM Nike provides color on Foot Locker relationship (NKE) 41.53 -0.40: -- Update -- On conference call, Nike reiterates that Foot Locker (Z) will no longer be a distributor for high-end footwear and will no longer handle product launches post Feb 03... Management added that they have already found new retail distributors for the lost Foot Locker purchases through April-May 03, and that this rate is tracking ahead of their proposed plan.

Leider ist der Ausblick von Nike nicht ganz so toll:

5:46PM Nike gives Q3 and FY03 guidance (NKE) 41.53 -0.40: -- Update -- On call, Nike expects Q303 (Feb) EPS to be roughly in line with Q302 EPS, which was $0.46 (Multex consensus estimate for Q303 is $0.53). As for FY03, Nike sees high single digit revenue growth although future orders, as of now, are running in the low single digits... NKE expects that it will see the majority of its growth in Q4 based on, among other reasons, historical trends. Finally, NKE looks for gross margins to be better than 40% in FY03.

schrieb am 20.12.02 02:28:38

Beitrag Nr. 62 ()

schrieb am 20.12.02 02:30:54

Beitrag Nr. 63 ()

schrieb am 20.12.02 11:45:51

Beitrag Nr. 64 ()

Die Daten in Kürze:

Frankreich privater Verbrauch November -1,7% gg Vm

Frankreich Konsumentenpreis-Index November endg. +0,2% gg Vm, +2,1% gg Vj => Keine Deflation

Deutschland Auftragseingang im Bauhauptgewerbe Oktober -8,0% gg Vj

Deutschland Exportpreise November -0,1% gg Vm, +0,5% gg Vj

Deutschland Importpreise November -1,4% gg Vm, -0,6% gg Vj

==> Beides in der Kombination

Deutschland Produzentenpreis-Index November -0,2% gg Vm, +0,4% gg Vj

von gestern noch: USA Finanzhaushaltssaldo November
-59,1 Mrd. USD (erw. -60,0 Mrd.) => in den Erwartungen

==> Die Auftragseingänge fürs Bauhauptgewerbe sind grottenschlecht, aber es sind auch alte Zahlen so zu sagen, vom Oktober. Die November Zahlen aus Frankreich machen aber beim Konsum leider auch nicht viel Mut. Kein einheitlicher Tenor der News, somit auch kein Handelszwang beim hin- und hergezurre des Verfallstages.

schrieb am 20.12.02 11:56:12

Beitrag Nr. 65 ()

Ein Blick auf den Chipmarkt:

DRAMs sind in den Lager wohl nur noch sehr wenige vorhanden, so daß sogar jetzt wo es auf die Weihnachstferien zugeht die Preise stabil bleiben. Auch die Lager bei den Händlern scheinen sehr klein zu sein.

DDR Rams scheint es hingegen noch genügend zu geben.

==> Das ist zumindest für den Kurs von Infineon keine schlechte mid Term News.

DEFINITION FÜR DIESEN THREAD:
Short Term: Auf Sicht von Minuten bis Stunden => Daytrading
Mid Term: Wochen bis wenige Monate => Swingtrading
Long Term: Auf Sicht von Jahre => Langzeitinvestment

schrieb am 20.12.02 12:38:11

Beitrag Nr. 66 ()

EMU OCT NSA TRADE SURPLUS E8.7 BN VS OCT01 SURPLUS E10.1 BN
…

==> Handlesüberschuß in Europa ist zurückgegangen und auch noch die Septemberzahlen wurden nach unten revidiert. Erstaunlich das der Außenhandelsüberschuß von Europa im letzten Jahr sogar noch größer war, nach dem Anschlag auf die Twintower. Im Jahresvergleich keine Zunahme der Export im Monatsvergleich sogar ein deutlicher Exportrückgang. Das sind die Folgen eines starken Euro.

Zusammenfassung Europa:
Export Oktober
Eurozone: unv. gg Vj auf 98,0 Mrd. EUR
EU-15: -2% gg Vj auf 90,0 Mrd. EUR
Import Oktober
Eurozone: 2% gg Vj auf 89,3 Mrd. EUR
EU-15: 2% gg Vj auf 89,8 Mrd. EUR
Handelsbilanz Oktober
Eurozone: 8,7 Mrd. EUR
EU-15: 0,2 Mrd. EUR

DATA: EU Data: Seas. Adj. Member States` Contribution To EU Trade

Release for: October 2002
Release date: December 20, 2002
Percent changes are month-over-month.
Levels are in billions of Euros and seasonally adjusted
EU Exports Yr/Yr EU Imports Yr/Yr Trade Balance
Oct02 Sep02 % Chg Oct02 Sep02 % Chg Oct02 Sep02
EU-15 81.2 83.4 -3 82.8 81.7 1 -1.5 1.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Belgium 4.6 4.9 -5 5.0 4.9 2 -0.3 0.0
Denmark na 1.7 na na 1.3 na na 0.4
Germany 24.4 25.7 -5 20.0 20.0 0 4.4 5.7
Greece na 0.5 na na 1.5 na na -1.0
Spain na 3.2 na na 4.8 na na -1.6
France 10.9 11.4 -5 9.7 9.8 -1 1.2 1.7
Ireland 2.7 2.5 7 1.5 1.4 5 1.2 1.1
Italy 10.7 10.5 2 9.5 8.5 12 1.2 1.9
Luxembourg 0.1 0.1 20 0.3 0.3 -5 -0.1 -0.2
Netherlands 5.0 5.0 0 9.1 8.8 4 -4.1 -3.8
Austria 2.4 2.5 -3 2.2 2.4 -5 0.1 0.1
Portugal 0.5 0.5 0 0.8 0.8 9 -0.4 -0.3
Finland 1.5 1.7 -13 1.0 1.1 -8 0.5 0.6
Sweden 3.2 3.2 -1 1.8 1.9 -6 1.3 1.3
United Kingdom 9.9 10.0 -1 14.3 14.3 0 -4.5 -4.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------

=> Der Außenhandelsüberschuß von Deutschland hat von 5,7 Mrd. auf 4,4 Mrd. abgenommen. Das ist ein Rückgang von ca. 23%.

schrieb am 20.12.02 13:40:38

Beitrag Nr. 67 ()

Median Forecast For US Final 3Q GDP: +4.0%,Chain Index +1.0%

Im Anbetracht der europäischen Zahlen ist das sicherlich ein ambitioniertes Ziel.

schrieb am 21.12.02 21:49:10

Beitrag Nr. 68 ()

Wafer demand to top 6 billion square inches in 2004

By Peter Clarke
Semiconductor Business News
(12/19/02 09:00 a.m. EST)

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Demand for silicon wafers is expected to…

A major expansion of silicon wafer usage between the second …

The onset of manufacturing on 300-mm wafers had been expecte…

"At present, 300-mm wafer demand is estimated at approximate…

`Leading Japanese vendors, such as Elpida and Toshiba, recen…

==> Dataquest, wenn das stimmt, dann sind die Kurse aktuell wohl bei einigen Werten um einiges zu tief.

==> Sehr auffällig sind schon die gegensätzlichen Nachrichten, und vor allem die negativen Kommentare von den Banken, wie beispielsweise Bank of Amerika.

==> Ich selbst bin erst mal in einer sehr verhaltenen Position was den Long Term Ausblick angeht. Wenn es allerdings bergauf gehen sollte, so gehöre ich zu denen die einen schnelleren Anstieg sehen als viele fundamental konservative Marktteilnehmer. Denn aus meiner Sicht haben wir aktuell viele Vorteile gegüber dem letzten Anstieg. Die Kommunikation und die Vernetzungen ist viel besser geworden. Das jedoch nur für den `wenn es besser werden sollte Fall`.

==> Wie sieht es weiter Mid-Long Term aus?

- Windwodressing bis zum Jahresende?
- Verlustbringer fliegen raus, gute Aktien steigen weiter.
- Verlustrealisierung von Aktien die besonders gut performt haben vor Beginn der neuen Spekulationssteuer, die 15% der Gewinne pauschal besteuert? (Die andere Darstellung mit 1,5%, weil man davon ausgeht, das man nur 10% an Gewinnen hat gefällt mir da nicht so. Warum? Weil eine Aktie mit 300% dann nämlich 45% Steuern auf den Einkaufspreis (EK) hat. Und eine mit 600% sogar 90% Steuern auf den EK usw.. Daher denke ich das es zu Gewinnmitnahmen bei stark gestiegenen Aktien kommen wird.)
-Ab Mitte Februar, wenn die neue Steuer dann gilt, glaube ich werden die Aktien wieder gesucht werden, da sie dann mit nur 7,5% Steuern wieder eine gute Anlage darstellen.

Long Term aus diesen Gesichtspunkten also wieder bessere Chancen. Mid Term werden Indikatoren, Fonds und Politik wie immer die Richtung hin und her bewegen. Wobei hier ein Dämpfer mit der weiteren Erhöhung der Ökosteuer und weiteren anderen Steuern ansteht.

Zusammenfassend:

Short Term: Dax weiterhin hoch volatil in relativ fester Dax Range
Mid Term: sehr verhalten und eher noch weiter negativ
Long Term: Wieder aufwärts mit dem WENN die Politik endlich doch mal etwas wirtschaft-positives macht.

schrieb am 23.12.02 19:25:02

Beitrag Nr. 69 ()

DRAM Preise sind kräfig weiter gestiegen. :eek:

Ich bleibe daher bei der durchaus positiven Einstellung für Chips.

schrieb am 26.12.02 21:46:38

Beitrag Nr. 70 ()

Zusammenfassung der letzten Tage:

26.12.02 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe in der Woche zum 21.12.02 bei 378.000 (erw. 405.000)

26.12.02 Japan Einzelhandelsumsätze November vorl. -2,4% gg Vj

26.12.02 Japan Produzentenpreis-Index November -0,1% gg Vm, -0,8% gg Vj

24.12.02 USA Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter November -1,4% gg Vm (erw. 0,8%)

24.12.02 Frankreich Produzentenpreis-Index November -0,5% gg Vm, 0,9% gg Vj

23.12.02 USA Uni Michigan Verbrauchervertrauen Dezember 86,7 (erw. 86,6)

23.12.02 USA
Persönliche Einkommen November +0,3% gg Vm (erw. 0,2%)

Persönliche Ausgaben November +0,5% gg Vm (erw. 0,5%)

23.12.02 Italien Arbeitslosenzahlen Oktober -0,4% gg Vm auf 8,9%

23.12.02 Großbritannien BIP 3. Quartal +0,9% gg Vq (erw. 0,8%)

20.12.02 Deutschland Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember vorl. +0,1% gg Vm, +1,3% gg Vj

20.12.02 USA Unternehmensgewinne 3. Quartal endg. -1,8% gg Vq

20.12.02 USA BIP 3. Quartal endg +4,0% (erw. 4,0%)Preis-Deflator: 1,0% (erw. 1,0%)

schrieb am 26.12.02 22:53:31

Beitrag Nr. 71 ()

Tagebuch eines Kleinaktionärs

Ein Rückblick
von Matthias Iken
2. Januar: Vorbei, endlich ist dieses Horrorjahr 2001 vorbei. Der Dax von 6300 auf 5150 Punkte gefallen, der Neue Markt sogar von 2500 auf 1100 Punkte. Aber alles halb so schlimm! Seit Ende September sind die Börsen in einer anhaltenden Aufwärtsbewegung. Man darf sich eben nicht beirren lassen. Gut, dass ich durchgehalten habe. Von Ferne grüßt schon die Gewinnzone. Ich denke, es wird ein gutes Jahr.

und und und morgen in der Zeitung "die Welt"
Artikel erschienen am 27. Dez 2002

schrieb am 27.12.02 16:30:17

Beitrag Nr. 72 ()

@WWolfgang

:confused:

Was das auch immer heißen soll....

==> Ich will in diesem Thread gerade keine Stimmungsmache betreiben, sondern primäre Informationen sammeln.

schrieb am 28.12.02 00:42:23

Beitrag Nr. 73 ()

Sehr dünnes Volumen bei fallenden Kursen.

Politische Unsicherheit in Nord-Korea sowie Bedenken über die Ölversorgung gaben einigen Zweiflern wohl den Anlaß zu verkaufen. Windowdressing und mächtige Hedgefonds dominieren daher das Geschehen.

Der Markt erscheint mir nicht frei zu reagieren, daher auch keine Trades. Illiquide Märkte bergen immer das Risiko hoher Volatilität. Wenige Player können den Markt leicht beeinflussen in dieser Situation.

schrieb am 29.12.02 00:04:37

Beitrag Nr. 74 ()

Da es um primäre Informationen geht hier ein aus meiner Sicht sehr guter und schöner Link:
http://www.bundesbank.de/stat/stat_zahlen.php

Es ist doch jedes Jahr mehr oder weniger das gleiche Spiel:
http://www.bundesbank.de/stat/download/saisonbwirt/i408.pdf
=> Zum Jahresende wird doch immer viel Geld in M3 geparkt.

schrieb am 29.12.02 00:44:33

Beitrag Nr. 75 ()

Wo stehen die Indizes heute nach eurer Meinung ?
1 – 18 s.
Charttechnik
Charttechnische - Prognose für 16 Indizes (Q4)

schrieb am 29.12.02 21:07:32

Beitrag Nr. 76 ()

@EAW

Ich habe meine Entscheidung getroffen, und die sieht folgendermaßen aus. Charttechnik ist für mich nur noch ein Krückstock. Ich versuche mir seit einiger Zeit nur noch die Kapitalströme anzusehen. Das Geld will nicht in die Hände von Rot/Grün bei aktuellem Kurs.

Es geht zunächst um Spekulationssteuern und mögliche kommende Steuern. Die Immobilienverkäufe gegen Jahresende sprechen Bände. Da wird (anschließend) viel geparkt, und das nicht umbedingt in Deutschland.

Man stelle sich vor was mit der deutschen Wirtschaft passieren würde, wenn Deutschland sein Bankgeheimnis wie die Schweiz gestalten würde... Dazu noch zwei drei begünstigende Gesetzgebungen bei Investitionen. Die Liquidität an einigen Plätzen dieser Welt ist gewalltig. Wenige Gesetzgebungen könnten den derzeit auf Abstoßen gestellten Magneten in Deutschland umzupolen.

Diese Ausführungen sollten deutlich machen wo wir gerade stehen. Ohne eine Zahl zu nennen.

schrieb am 30.12.02 17:57:40

Beitrag Nr. 77 ()

@altbekannter

dieser spruch von dir gefällt mir:

Ich habe meine Entscheidung getroffen, und die sieht folgendermaßen aus. Charttechnik ist für mich nur noch ein Krückstock. Ich versuche mir seit einiger Zeit nur noch die Kapitalströme anzusehen. Das Geld will nicht in die Hände von Rot/Grün bei aktuellem Kurs.

..genau diese einstellung verstärkt sich auch in mir zusehens. darüber sollte man sich austauschen.

wo schaut man hin ?
welche infoquellen sollte man anzapfen ?
wie wirkt sich welche zahl aus ?

diese thema hätte einen eigenen thread verdient!

vielleicht kannst du dich dazu überwinden (ich selbst könnte aus zeitmangel den thread nicht pflegen)

Plus :look:

schrieb am 30.12.02 22:47:33

Beitrag Nr. 78 ()

@Plus

Gerne hier in diesem Thread.

Eingangsposting bitte noch einmal lesen!

Primäre Informationsquellen sind mein Schlüssel. Je gezielter wir diese auftun, desto besser.

Informationen und Kommentare sollen streng getrennt sein, daher auch die Farbwahl mit blau (primäre) und schwarz (kommentar). Fett ist für die Trades da.

schrieb am 30.12.02 23:30:03

Beitrag Nr. 79 ()

schrieb am 31.12.02 15:54:26

Beitrag Nr. 80 ()

08:54 ET IBM Q4 results could be above consensus - Soundview (IBM) 77.36: -- Update -- Soundview says that checks indicate IBM`s Q4 earnings could come in closer to firm`s est of $1.36 rather than consensus of $1.30; believes the U.S. finished above plan and services rev grew 4% YoY (excluding PwCC), and firm forecasts record services bookings for 2002 on the heels of several recent large deals, which suggest that the large deal logjam appears to be breaking up.

=> Das entspricht so ein wenig meinem Optimisums bezüglich einigen Technologiewerten im Dax, die zum Teil zu recht günstigen Preisen zu haben sind. Der fallende Ölpreis vermag die Lage vielleicht kurzfristig bis mittelfristig etwas zu entspannen.

schrieb am 02.01.03 15:46:00

Beitrag Nr. 81 ()

Leider habe ich aktuell wenig Zeit die Daten jetzt schon hier zu analysieren.

Eines ist mir aber nicht entgangen, daß an den asiatischen Spotmärkten die DRAM Preise weiter steigen. :ekk:

Auch Wahnsinn wenn man sich den Preisanstieg in dem Segment nur mal von den letzten zwei Dezemberwochen ansieht. Wenn man das so sieht, dann zweifele ich derzeit etwas dran, daß Micron weiter den Preis unten halten will. Schließlich wäre damit auch ein weiterer Verlust für Micron verbunden.

schrieb am 02.01.03 16:04:45

Beitrag Nr. 82 ()

Happy Rally, die Lager sind leer.

US ISM PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 54.7 DEC VS. 49.2 NOV

=> Damit über den Erwartungen von 50.0.

Auch die Teilindizes sind gar nicht so schlecht wie der Dax ausschaut. Einiger Kritikpunkt sind heute die Arbeitsmarktdaten, die aber ja noch in der Range von 400.000 liegen. Somit kann man sie verschmerzen.

schrieb am 02.01.03 16:07:07

Beitrag Nr. 83 ()

Wie der TBOND zurückkommt, so auch der Euro.

schrieb am 03.01.03 13:27:23

Beitrag Nr. 84 ()

So kurz die Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von gestern 2.1.2002:

9:45
ITALY REUTERS/ADACI SA MFG PMI 51.1 DEC VS 51.0 IN NOV
ITALY REUTERS/ADACI MFG PMI PRICES 52.2 IN DEC VS 53.6 IN NOV

TABLE-Italy`s manufacturing PMI 51.1 in Dec vs 51.0 Nov
MILAN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Italy`s manufacturing sector inched
up to a four-month high in December but growth remained sluggish
and employment shrank for a sixth month running, a Reuters/ADACI
manufacturing survey showed on Thursday.
NTC Research, which compiles data for the survey, provided
the following table:
Adjusted Unadjusted
DEC NOV DEC NOV
OVERALL PMI 51.10 51.04 50.00 51.21
Output 53.08 53.38 52.82 54.72
Consumer goods 56.1 54.7 ---- -----
Investment goods 55.6 53.3 ---- -----
Intermediate goods 48.9 47.7 ---- -----
New Orders 53.25 52.43 52.47 52.49
Employment 47.45 48.21 46.86 48.60
Quantity of purchases 50.86 50.21 48.49 49.32
Prices 52.15 53.58 51.80 52.71
Suppliers delivery times 49.52 49.72 51.09 51.06
Stocks of purchased goods47.95 47.82 43.42 47.20
Stocks of finished goods 47.37 48.89 44.83 49.39
Orders for export markets50.99 49.04 51.12 49.92

Italy manufacturing PMI at 4-month high, jobs down
MILAN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Italian manufacturing put on its
best performance since August last month, helped by another
improvement in order books, a survey showed on Thursday.
The Reuters/ADACI Purchasing Managers Index for Europe`s
fourth biggest economy advanced to 51.1 in December, its highest
since 51.6 in August, from 51.0 in November, moving further away
from the 50 mark which separates growth from shrinkage.
But although the index, which provides a snapshot of
business conditions, has been in positive territory for 11
straight months, it still showed only modest growth and
employment shrank for a sixth month.
Order books expanded for a 12th successive month, with the
rate of growth of demand picking up for the second month in a
row, to the fastest since August.
Manufacturing output also rose for a 12th month, although
the rate of expansion was slightly down from November`s
eight-month high, as indicated by a fall in the sub-index for
output to 53.1 from 53.4.
The employment sub-index fell to 47.5 from 48.2 in November,
as firms axed jobs for a sixth month, with the rate of job
shedding approaching October`s record pace of decline.
Car maker Fiat <FIA.MI>, once Italian industry`s
flag-bearer, laid off a first round of 5,600 workers for at
least a year in December as the industrial group tried to
counter slumping car sales.
Italy`s economy has virtually stagnated in recent quarters
and the government is widely expected to miss its target of
economic growth of 0.6 percent in 2002.
Business confidence dropped to an 11-month low in December,
a separate survey showed earlier this month.
The manufacturing PMI data showed showed export orders, at
51.0, recording their first growth since August, with higher
demand from some core European Union countries.
But the rate of growth of foreign demand was modest due to
weakness in other markets. With the international outlook still
bleak, companies said they were cutting jobs to boost
productivity.
Breaking down the data, output of consumer and investment
goods rose in December largely due to an increase in new orders
but intermediate goods output fell for a second month as many
companies adjusted production levels to slightly weaker demand.

=> Die Zahlen von Italien sind recht stabil. Sehr erfreulich auch die Entwicklung bei den Konsumgütern und beim Export. Arbeitsmarktdaten sind hier auch ein kleiner Dämpfer. Erfreulich ist der Indikator über 50.

to reflect the current underlying weakness of the economy and
reduced expectations about future production levels," NTC
Research, which compiles the index, said in a statement.
The new orders index fell to 49.17 from 50.18 in November.
"The weakness of the domestic market was widely blamed for
lower sales," NTC said.
Export orders were boosted by demand from the Middle East,
North Africa, eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand, but
this was not enough to lift the overall level of new orders,
with demand weak closer to home.
"Demand from the euro zone and particularly Germany remained
depressed," NTC said.
The downbeat report comes as the government forecasts a
sharp rise in growth this year to a rate of 2.5 percent after
around one percent in 2002. Many private sector economists
believe this predicted pickup is an over-optimistic scenario.
A strong growth rate is key to the centre-right government`s
efforts to rein in its budget deficit, which is dangerously
close to a limit under European Union rules of three percent of
gross domestic product.
Growth could also help reduce France`s unemployment rate of
nine percent. The CDAF/Reuters survey showed manufacturers cut
jobs in December, however. The employment index fell to 46.86
from 47.56 in November.
Economists say French households are holding down their
spending in the face of the uncertain job market.

TEXT-CDAF/Reuters Dec manufacturing PMI falls to 48.7
PARIS, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Following is the full text of the
French CDAF/Reuters Purchasing Managers` Index (PMI) for
December provided by NTC Research, which compiles the index.

French manufacturing economy contracts for the third
consecutive month. Both output and demand fall after last
month`s brief expansionary fillip.
CDAF/REUTERS PURCHASERS` INDEX:
The French manufacturing economy contracted for the third
consecutive month during December. The seasonally adjusted
CDAF/Reuters Purchasing Managers` Index -- a composite index
designed to indicate business conditions in the manufacturing
sector -- posted 48.7, its lowest level during the recent
contractionary period.
The PMI was negatively affected by four out of the five
components included in its composition. Output levels fell,
after expanding in November, whilst the tentative recovery in
demand observed during the previous month was not sustained.
Staffing levels were cut significantly during December, and raw
material inventories were eroded at a rapid rate. Only
suppliers` delivery times, which were slightly longer, tempered
overall sectoral decline during the latest survey.
NEW ORDERS, PURCHASING AND OUTPUT:
The overall level of production and demand in the French
manufacturing economy contracted during December, after both had
given some indication of possible recovery during the previous
month.
December saw the continuation of a trend that has been
observed throughout much of the survey history, as production
levels remained sensitive to the prevalent demand conditions.
However, many panel companies also reported that, in order to
achieve cost savings during the present adverse economic
climate, they had reduced their production by meeting a higher
proportion of sales from existing inventories.
Despite total new order volumes falling during December (the
second marginal decline in order levels during the past three
months), export order books rose for the second month in
succession. Much of the rise in foreign demand was attributed to
the development of new markets, as French manufacturing
companies made efforts to develop new export customers in light
of the continued weak demand from Eurozone economies.
Purchasing activity was modestly reduced during December,
following a marginal expansion in November. French manufacturing
companies reduced their input buying to reflect the current
underlying weakness of the economy and reduced expectations
about future production levels.
PRICES AND DELIVERY TIMES:
Input prices fell for the second consecutive month in
December, following a seven-month period of input cost inflation
recorded between April and October. Average lead-times
lengthened for a further month.
STOCKS:
Both inventories of purchases and completed work were
significantly eroded during December. Many firms indicated that
destocking of raw material stores during the latest survey had
been the continuation of a strategy aimed at achieving cost
savings through deliberate inventory reduction. Similarly, lower
finished goods stock levels were attributed to attempts to
reduce costs during the current competitive climate.
EMPLOYMENT:
Weak demand, and the uncertain economic outlook, resulted in
further job losses in December. Temporary employees were again
worst affected by job cuts.
OUTPUT INDEX
Even after accounting for the strong seasonal effects of
year-end destocking and the early shut-down of firms for
maintenance, December`s survey recorded a modest overall
contraction of French manufacturing output following November`s
slight rise. Lower order levels (exacerbated in some cases by
the cancellation of contracts) and efforts to run down stocks
were the principal reasons given by those companies that reduced
output.
NEW ORDERS INDEX
A strong seasonal adjustment was also made to the December
figures on new orders but, even after accounting for this upward
revision, the latest data indicated a slight weakening in order
books for the second time in the past three months. The weakness
of the domestic market was widely blamed for lower sales, with
general uncertainty and destocking at customers reported. Strong
competition was also reported to have affected orders.
NEW EXPORT ORDERS
December`s survey registered a second successive month of
rising foreign manufacturing sales. The development of new
markets was reported to have helped a number of French
manufacturers to boost their export sales, with companies
reporting increased demand from the Middle East, North Africa,
Eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Demand from the
Eurozone and particularly Germany remained depressed.
QUANTITY OF PURCHASES INDEX
Having registered a marginal expansion of purchasing in
November, the seasonally adjusted Quantity of Purchases Index
dropped below 50.0 in December to signal a modest decline in the
volume of inputs purchased. Falling production requirements and
efforts to run down inventories were widely reported to have
impacted on firms` purchasing, while lower buying also reflected
the down scaling of anticipated future production needs.

PRICES INDEX
Seasonally adjusted average input prices declined for the
second month running in December, although the rate of deflation
was only marginal. Falling global demand for a range of inputs
was reported to have enabled around 12 percent of manufacturers
to negotiate lower prices with their suppliers. Those firms
reporting that their input prices had risen over the month often
mentioned higher transport costs.
SUPPLIERS` DELIVERY TIMES INDEX
Low stock levels at suppliers were widely blamed for a ninth
consecutive month of lengthening delivery times. The seasonally
adjusted Suppliers` Delivery Times Index recorded 48.1 for
December, down from 49.1 the previous month, to indicate a
slight acceleration in the rate of delays. Where delivery times
were reported to have improved, falling demand for inputs was
reported to have facilitated faster deliveries.
STOCK OF PURCHASES INDEX
Even after accounting for the strong seasonal effects of end
of year inventory reduction programmes, the latest survey
indicated a further sharp decline in overall stocks of purchases
held at French manufacturers. The latest decline reflected a
continuation to the general trend of deliberate stock reduction
(designed to reduce costs) that has been evident throughout much
of the past two years.
STOCK OF FINISHED GOODS INDEX
After accounting for the seasonal effects of both stock
building to cover factory closure for Christmas and inventory
reduction programmes to run down year-end stocks, December`s
survey registered a further overall decline in stocks of
finished products. Efforts to reduce stock holdings in order to
cut costs and improve efficiency in the current competitive
business environment continued to be widely reported.
EMPLOYMENT INDEX
Efforts to trim capacity to more efficient levels (and
reduce operating costs in an environment of strong competition
on prices) resulted in a fifth straight month of falling
employment levels in December. Temporary employees again bore
the brunt of the staff cut backs. Weak demand and the uncertain
economic outlook meant that less than 7 percent of all companies
took on new staff during the month." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
9:50
FRANCE CDAF/REUTERS SA MFG PMI 48.7. IN DEC VS 49.6 IN NOV
FRANCE CDAF/REUTERS SA MFG PMI PRICES 49.6 IN DEC VS 48.3 IN NOV
TABLE-CDAF/Reuters French Dec manufacturing PMI at 48.7
PARIS, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Following is a table of seasonally
adjusted December data for the CDAF/Reuters Purchasing Managers`
Index (PMI) of French manufacturing industry performance.
December November December 2001
PMI 48.7* 49.6 42.9
Output 49.0** 51.3 43.6
New Orders 49.2*** 50.2 43.2
Employment 46.9 47.6 42.7
Suppliers` delivery times 48.1 49.1 58.7
Stocks of purchases 45.4 45.3 42.6
Prices 49.6 48.3 34.3
Quantity of purchases 48.1 50.9 41.6
Stocks of finished goods 46.4 49.6 49.8
Export orders 51.0 52.9 43.1
* Third consecutive month of contraction. PMI showed growth
in every month between March and September after a loss in
February.
** Contracts after expanding in November.
*** Signals contraction after gain in November.

French manufacturing down in December - PMI index
PARIS, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Activity in France`s manufacturing
sector contracted for the third month in a row in December as
output fell in response to weakened demand in the home market, a
Reuters survey showed on Thursday.
The contraction sent the latest Reuters/CDAF Purchasing
Managers` Index, an overall gauge of the sector`s performance,
down to 48.70 from 49.55 in November -- further below the 50.0
watershed level between contraction and expansion.
The negative readout from the manufacturing sector, which
accounts for around a quarter of French output, follows other
recent weak economic data from France. Consumer spending in
November recorded its sharpest drop in almost four years.
Weakened domestic demand prompted French manufacturers to
cut output and run down existing stocks in December, the survey
showed. The output index slipped below breakeven to 49.03 after
expanding in November with a reading of 51.30.
Manufacturers also laid off staff in December and reduced
supply purchases in an effort to cut costs.
"French manufacturing companies reduced their input buying
to reflect the current underlying weakness of the economy and
reduced expectations about future production levels," NTC
Research, which compiles the index, said in a statement.
The new orders index fell to 49.17 from 50.18 in November.
"The weakness of the domestic market was widely blamed for
lower sales," NTC said.
Export orders were boosted by demand from the Middle East,
North Africa, eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand, but
this was not enough to lift the overall level of new orders,
with demand weak closer to home.
"Demand from the euro zone and particularly Germany remained
depressed," NTC said.
The downbeat report comes as the government forecasts a
sharp rise in growth this year to a rate of 2.5 percent after
around one percent in 2002. Many private sector economists
believe this predicted pickup is an over-optimistic scenario.
A strong growth rate is key to the centre-right government`s
efforts to rein in its budget deficit, which is dangerously
close to a limit under European Union rules of three percent of
gross domestic product.
Growth could also help reduce France`s unemployment rate of
nine percent. The CDAF/Reuters survey showed manufacturers cut
jobs in December, however. The employment index fell to 46.86
from 47.56 in November.
Economists say French households are holding down their
spending in the face of the uncertain job market.

TEXT-CDAF/Reuters Dec manufacturing PMI falls to 48.7
PARIS, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Following is the full text of the
French CDAF/Reuters Purchasing Managers` Index (PMI) for
December provided by NTC Research, which compiles the index.

French manufacturing economy contracts for the third
consecutive month. Both output and demand fall after last
month`s brief expansionary fillip.
CDAF/REUTERS PURCHASERS` INDEX:
The French manufacturing economy contracted for the third
consecutive month during December. The seasonally adjusted
CDAF/Reuters Purchasing Managers` Index -- a composite index
designed to indicate business conditions in the manufacturing
sector -- posted 48.7, its lowest level during the recent
contractionary period.
The PMI was negatively affected by four out of the five
components included in its composition. Output levels fell,
after expanding in November, whilst the tentative recovery in
demand observed during the previous month was not sustained.
Staffing levels were cut significantly during December, and raw
material inventories were eroded at a rapid rate. Only
suppliers` delivery times, which were slightly longer, tempered
overall sectoral decline during the latest survey.
NEW ORDERS, PURCHASING AND OUTPUT:
The overall level of production and demand in the French
manufacturing economy contracted during December, after both had
given some indication of possible recovery during the previous
month.
December saw the continuation of a trend that has been
observed throughout much of the survey history, as production
levels remained sensitive to the prevalent demand conditions.
However, many panel companies also reported that, in order to
achieve cost savings during the present adverse economic
climate, they had reduced their production by meeting a higher
proportion of sales from existing inventories.
Despite total new order volumes falling during December (the
second marginal decline in order levels during the past three
months), export order books rose for the second month in
succession. Much of the rise in foreign demand was attributed to
the development of new markets, as French manufacturing
companies made efforts to develop new export customers in light
of the continued weak demand from Eurozone economies.
Purchasing activity was modestly reduced during December,
following a marginal expansion in November. French manufacturing
companies reduced their input buying to reflect the current
underlying weakness of the economy and reduced expectations
about future production levels.
PRICES AND DELIVERY TIMES:
Input prices fell for the second consecutive month in
December, following a seven-month period of input cost inflation
recorded between April and October. Average lead-times
lengthened for a further month.
STOCKS:
Both inventories of purchases and completed work were
significantly eroded during December. Many firms indicated that
destocking of raw material stores during the latest survey had
been the continuation of a strategy aimed at achieving cost
savings through deliberate inventory reduction. Similarly, lower
finished goods stock levels were attributed to attempts to
reduce costs during the current competitive climate.
EMPLOYMENT:
Weak demand, and the uncertain economic outlook, resulted in
further job losses in December. Temporary employees were again
worst affected by job cuts.
OUTPUT INDEX
Even after accounting for the strong seasonal effects of
year-end destocking and the early shut-down of firms for
maintenance, December`s survey recorded a modest overall
contraction of French manufacturing output following November`s
slight rise. Lower order levels (exacerbated in some cases by
the cancellation of contracts) and efforts to run down stocks
were the principal reasons given by those companies that reduced
output.
NEW ORDERS INDEX
A strong seasonal adjustment was also made to the December
figures on new orders but, even after accounting for this upward
revision, the latest data indicated a slight weakening in order
books for the second time in the past three months. The weakness
of the domestic market was widely blamed for lower sales, with
general uncertainty and destocking at customers reported. Strong
competition was also reported to have affected orders.
NEW EXPORT ORDERS
December`s survey registered a second successive month of
rising foreign manufacturing sales. The development of new
markets was reported to have helped a number of French
manufacturers to boost their export sales, with companies
reporting increased demand from the Middle East, North Africa,
Eastern Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Demand from the
Eurozone and particularly Germany remained depressed.
QUANTITY OF PURCHASES INDEX
Having registered a marginal expansion of purchasing in
November, the seasonally adjusted Quantity of Purchases Index
dropped below 50.0 in December to signal a modest decline in the
volume of inputs purchased. Falling production requirements and
efforts to run down inventories were widely reported to have
impacted on firms` purchasing, while lower buying also reflected
the down scaling of anticipated future production needs.

PRICES INDEX
Seasonally adjusted average input prices declined for the
second month running in December, although the rate of deflation
was only marginal. Falling global demand for a range of inputs
was reported to have enabled around 12 percent of manufacturers
to negotiate lower prices with their suppliers. Those firms
reporting that their input prices had risen over the month often
mentioned higher transport costs.
SUPPLIERS` DELIVERY TIMES INDEX
Low stock levels at suppliers were widely blamed for a ninth
consecutive month of lengthening delivery times. The seasonally
adjusted Suppliers` Delivery Times Index recorded 48.1 for
December, down from 49.1 the previous month, to indicate a
slight acceleration in the rate of delays. Where delivery times
were reported to have improved, falling demand for inputs was
reported to have facilitated faster deliveries.
STOCK OF PURCHASES INDEX
Even after accounting for the strong seasonal effects of end
of year inventory reduction programmes, the latest survey
indicated a further sharp decline in overall stocks of purchases
held at French manufacturers. The latest decline reflected a
continuation to the general trend of deliberate stock reduction
(designed to reduce costs) that has been evident throughout much
of the past two years.
STOCK OF FINISHED GOODS INDEX
After accounting for the seasonal effects of both stock
building to cover factory closure for Christmas and inventory
reduction programmes to run down year-end stocks, December`s
survey registered a further overall decline in stocks of
finished products. Efforts to reduce stock holdings in order to
cut costs and improve efficiency in the current competitive
business environment continued to be widely reported.
EMPLOYMENT INDEX
Efforts to trim capacity to more efficient levels (and
reduce operating costs in an environment of strong competition
on prices) resulted in a fifth straight month of falling
employment levels in December. Temporary employees again bore
the brunt of the staff cut backs. Weak demand and the uncertain
economic outlook meant that less than 7 percent of all companies
took on new staff during the month.[/b][/b]

==> Unter dem Strich nur leicht schlechte Nachtrichten für Frankreich aus meiner Sicht. Der Export ist immer noch schön, was gut für die Handelsbilanz von Europa ist, und den Euro im Gegenzug wieder stärker macht, und natürlich auch das Öl für die Europäer billiger. Der Index war jedoch unter den Erwartungen von 50.0. Aber nicht wesentlich schlechter aus meiner Sicht.

9:55
GERMANY BME/REUTERS SA MFG PMI 46.9 IN DEC VS 49.0 IN NOV
GERMANY BME/REUTERS MFG PMI PRICES 50.4 IN DEC VS 50.6 IN NOV
Abschwung in deutscher Industrie beschleunigt
London, 02. Jan (Reuters) - Die Geschäftstätigkeit in der
deutschen Industrie ist im Dezember einer Umfrage unter
Einkaufsmanagern zufolge deutlich zurückgegangen.
Der Reuters-Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) für Deutschland fiel
auf saisonbereinigt 46,9 nach 49,0 Punkten im November, wie die
Forschungsgruppe NTC, die den Index zusammen mit dem
Bundesverband Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME) im
Auftrag von Reuters ermittelt, am Donnerstag mitteilte. Das ist
der niedrigste Wert seit drei Monaten. Nach einer Verlangsamung
des Abschwungs im Vormonat hätten deutliche Nachfrage- und
Produktionseinbußen sowie weiterer Stellenabbau zum Absinken des
Indexes beigetragen, teilte NTC weiter mit.

DEZ NOV OKT
EMI saisonbereinigt 46,9 49,0 48,4
EMI-Komponenten,
saisonbereinigt
- Produktion 49,9 51,1 52,3
- Neuaufträge 47,1 51,6 49,4
- Beschäftigung 43,3 44,4 44,7
- Lieferzeiten 50,7 50,4 51,0
- Vormateriallager 42,6 44,1 41,6
Weitere Indizes,
saisonbereinigt
- Einkaufsmenge 45,9 48,9 47,8
- Einkaufspreise 50,4 50,6 52,3
- Exportaufträge 50,4 53,5 52,2
- Fertigwarenlager 46,7 47,3 45,7

=> Das waren mal wieder grottenschlechte Daten für Deutschland. kein Wunder in Schröderland eigenltich. Weiter ansteigende Lieferzeiten bei Rückgehender Beschäftigung zeigt die defensiven Geschäftspraktiken ebenso wie die abnehmenden Lager. Diese Situation ist absolut abhängig von der Politik aus meiner Sicht. Wenige Änderungen und Entlastungen für die Wirtschaft könnten jetzt `Wunder` bewirken. Die Märkte sind schließlich ausgetrocknet und mauern derzeit um Verluste in dieser Legislaturperiode zu begrenzen. Schlechte Nachrichten.

10:00
EMU-12 SA MFG PMI 48.4 IN DEC VS 49.5 IN NOV
EMU-12 SA MFG PMI PRICES 50.8 IN DEC VS 50.9 IN NOV

Reuters Eurozone PMI falls in December
LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Following are details of the
Reuters Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers` Index plus
its component indices (seasonally adjusted). Where there are
revisions, previous figures are in brackets.

DEC NOV DEC 2001
Purchasing Managers` Index 48.4* 49.5 44.1
Output 50.3 51.6 45.2
New Orders 49.1** 51.0 43.7
Employment 45.5*** 46.3 44.5
Delivery times 50.1 50.3 56.1
Stocks of purchases 45.1 45.8 42.4
-----------------------------------------------------------
Prices 50.8 50.9 39.5
* Fourth month of contraction
** Lowest since January 2002
*** Lowest since January 2002, 19th month of contraction
The consensus forecast for the December Purchasing Managers`
Index was 49.7, according to the mean of 16 economists`
forecasts. The range was 49.1 to 50.0.
All indices are seasonally adjusted. A reading above 50
indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding, below 50
that it is generally contracting. The prices index is not used
to compile the overall PMI.
NOTE: The indices are based on data collected from
purchasing executives in around 2,500 companies in eight euro
zone countries -- Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland,
Austria, Greece and the Netherlands -- covering approximately 92
percent of euro zone activity. Questions are asked about real
events and are not opinion based.
The Reuters PMI is a composite index based on five of the
individual indexes with the following weights:
new orders - 0.3
output - 0.25
employment - 0.2
suppliers` delivery times - 0.15
stocks of items purchased - 0.1
The delivery times index is inverted so that it moves in a
comparable direction.

==> Hier unter dem Strich miese Nachrichten bei der Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa. Der Output hält sich erstaunlicherweise. Unter dem Strich keine kleine Kontraktion.

10:30
UK DEC CIPS PMI MANUF. MAIN INDEX 49.5 V NOV 50.1
UK DEC CIPS PMI NEW ORDERS INDEX 49.9 VS NOV 52.2

UK December manufacturing PMI survey
LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Following are the indices from
the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply`s
latest manufacturing survey (seasonally adjusted, previous
figures in brackets):
DEC NOV
Purchasing managers index 49.5* 50.1 (50.0)
Output 51.6 51.4 (50.9)
New Orders 49.9** 52.2 (52.1)
Export orders 47.6 47.5 (47.6)
Backlogs of work 40.8*** 44.5
Stocks of finished goods 47.3 47.7 (47.6)
Employment 47.2 47.5 (47.7)
Output prices 48.9 49.5
Input prices 51.9**** 46.6 (46.4)
Suppliers` delivery times 48.7 49.0 (48.9)
Quantity of purchases 48.0***** 51.4 (51.5)
Stocks of purchases 45.0 44.6 (44.5)

CONSENSUS FORECAST PMI: 49.9

* Lowest since July, when it was 49.2
** Lowest since July, when it was 49.6
*** Lowest since Nov 01, when it was 39.9
**** Highest since August, when it was 55.3
***** Lowest since July, when it was 47.8

==> Aus meiner Sicht eine fast unbedeutende Veränderung. Wenn auch eine leichte Verschlechterung zu sehen ist. Kein up aber auch kein down aus meiner Sicht. Die schlagen sich weiterhin sehr gut in dem Umfeld.

Stengle said, and "not very large" relative to recent movements in the
December figures. He cited reporting volatility during the December
holidays and seasonal adjustment issues related to that as the
prevailing factors. It was the "same story," he added.

This week`s initial claims figure outpaced the high end of
expectations found in a Market News International survey, which had
centered on an increase of 2,000 initial claims to 380,000, with
forecasts ranging from 370,000 to 390,000.

Stengle suggested that the four-week moving average is a better
indicator of initial claims levels at this time of year. The four-week
average rose 11,250 to 418,750 for the week of Dec. 28. This was the
highest level since 424,500 on Sept. 28.

Initial claims for the Dec. 21 week were revised to 390,000, down
48,000 from the prior week and 12,000 higher than the originally
reported 378,000.

Stengle noted that this upward revision was the result of a
"compressed" reporting period because Christmas Eve fell on a Tuesday
and a "few more estimates than we typically do," from states reporting
the data.

Unadjusted claims surged by 128,723 to 612,829, below the 646,942
level reported in the comparable week in 2001.

Continuing claims stayed on the decline, falling another 56,000 in
the Dec. 21 week to 3.418 million.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7% for the
week ended Dec. 21, unchanged from the previous week, and down from 2.8%
a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is roughly half
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

For the week of Dec. 14, 782,522 jobless were enrolled in the
temporary extended unemployment claims benefits program. These benefits
expired on Dec. 28, as Congress adjourned for the year without approving
a further extension of the program.

President Bush has urged Congress to renew the program promptly
once lawmakers reconvene early next week." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">14:30
U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 403,000 DEC 28 WK VS 390,000 PRIOR WK (PREV 378,000)
US JOBLESS CLAIMS +13,000 TO 403,000 DEC 28 WK;380K EXPECTED
US INITIAL CLAIMS 4-WK AVG +11,250 TO 418,750 IN DEC 28 WEEK
US CONTINUING CLAIMS -56,000 TO 3.418 MLN IN DEC 21 WEEK
US NSA JOBLESS CLAIMS +128,723 TO 612,829 IN DEC 28 WEEK
US INITIAL CLAIMS REV TO -48K TO 390K IN DEC 21 WK (PREV 378K)
US FED TEMPORARY BENEFITS PRG +5,292 TO 782,522 IN DEC 14 WK
US LBR DEPT:NO SPECIAL FACTOR FOR INIT CLAIMS RISE IN DEC28 WK

US Data: Unemployment Insurance Claims Summary

Figures for week ended: December 28, 2002
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment & Training Admin
New in thous, cont in mlns, seas adj Chg between survey weeks:
ContPayrolls
28-Dec-02 403 13 418.75 11.25 NA NA
21-Dec-02 390 -48 407.50 5.50 3.418 -56 Dec:
14-Dec-02 438 -6 402.00 14.00 3.474 -7 56 4.75 -136 NA
07-Dec-02 444 86 388.00 10.75 3.481 212
30-Nov-02 358 -10 377.25 -9.75 3.269 -190
23-Nov-02 368 -14 387.00 -10.25 3.459 -151 Nov:
16-Nov-02 382 -19 397.25 -3.00 3.610 47 -32 -12.25 69 -40
09-Nov-02 401 4 400.25 -3.25 3.563 -81
02-Nov-02 397 -12 403.50 2.00 3.644 87
26-Oct-02 409 15 401.50 -3.75 3.557 -23
19-Oct-02 394 -20 405.25 -4.25 3.580 39 Oct:
12-Oct-02 414 25 409.50 -4.00 3.541 -150 -16 -10.50 -107 86
05-Oct-02 389 -35 413.50 -11.00 3.691 79
28-Sep-02 424 13 424.50 4.25 3.612 -37
21-Sep-02 411 -19 420.25 0.25 3.649 1 Sep:
14-Sep-02 430 -3 420.00 8.75 3.648 63 35 30.25 84 -84
07-Sep-02 433 26 411.25 10.50 3.585 40
31-Aug-02 407 -3 400.75 6.25 3.545 20
24-Aug-02 410 15 394.50 4.75 3.525 -39 Aug:
17-Aug-02 395 4 389.75 7.25 3.564 67 12 -2.25 72 123

Jobless Claims, Major State-By-State Changes

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The following jurisdictions reported changes
of more than 1,000 on an unadjusted basis in initial claims for state
unemployment insurance for the week ended December 21, according to the
Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor.
State data are not yet available for the week of December 28.

States with a decrease of more than 1,000:

North Carolina -19,131 Fewer layoffs in textile, furniture,
construction and lumber/wood.
Pennsylvania -5,143 Fewer layoffs in construction, industrial
machinery, transportation and agriculture.
Michigan -3,614 No comment.
New York -2,646 No comment.
South Carolina -2,267 Fewer layoffs in manufacturing.
Tennessee -2,078 Fewer layoffs in rubber/plastics,
lumber/wood, electronic equipment, trade
and services.
Illinois -1,753 Fewer layoffs in construction, services
and manufacturing.
Georgia -1,567 Fewer layoffs in textile and
carpets/rugs.
West Virginia -1,117 No comment.

States with an increase of more than 1,000:

Indiana +1,138 Layoffs in transportation equipment and
manufacturing.
Arkansas +1,143 No comment.
New Jersey +1,283 Layoffs in public administration,
transportation, communications and public
utilities.
Nevada +1,338 No comment.
Minnesota +1,362 Layoffs in transportation equipment.
Wisconsin +1,563 Layoffs in construction, trade, services
and manufacturing.
Washington +2,296 No comment.
Texas +2,636 Layoffs in finance, services and
manufacturing.
Virginia +4,016 Layoffs in textile, apparel and furniture.
Missouri +4,255 Layoffs in transportation, trade, services
and furniture.
Kentucky +5,374 Layoffs in food, lumber/wood and
fabricated metals.
California +7,734 Layoffs in construction and services.

Unemployment Insurance, Initial Claims

Release for week ended: December 28, 2002
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
In thousands, seasonally adjusted unless noted

Week Initial 4-week 4-week Initial Unadj.
ended claims Change average change unadj. change
---------------------------------------------------------------------
28-Dec-02 403 13 418.750 11.250 612.829 128.723
21-Dec-02 390 -48 407.500 5.500 484.106 -2.152
14-Dec-02 438 -6 402.000 14.000 486.258 -61.172
07-Dec-02 444 86 388.000 10.750 547.430 161.642
30-Nov-02 358 -10 377.250 -9.750 385.788 -50.761
23-Nov-02 368 -14 387.000 -10.250 436.549 63.686
16-Nov-02 382 -19 397.250 -3.000 372.863 -54.275
09-Nov-02 401 4 400.250 -3.250 427.138 29.739
02-Nov-02 397 -12 403.500 2.000 397.399 21.682
26-Oct-02 409 15 401.500 -3.750 375.717 25.736
19-Oct-02 394 -20 405.250 -4.250 349.981 -35.747
12-Oct-02 414 25 409.500 -4.000 385.728 20.037
05-Oct-02 389 -35 413.500 -11.000 365.691 46.498
28-Sep-02 424 13 424.500 4.250 319.193 1.920
21-Sep-02 411 -19 420.250 0.250 317.273 -20.304
14-Sep-02 430 -3 420.000 8.750 337.577 19.216
07-Sep-02 433 26 411.250 10.500 318.361 7.497
31-Aug-02 407 -3 400.750 6.250 310.864 -3.988
24-Aug-02 410 15 394.500 4.750 314.852 0.955
17-Aug-02 395 4 389.750 7.250 313.897 -18.776
10-Aug-02 391 9 382.500 2.000 332.673 6.317
03-Aug-02 382 -9 380.500 -6.250 326.356 -12.085
27-Jul-02 391 25 386.750 1.250 338.441 -56.145
20-Jul-02 366 -17 385.500 -6.500 394.586 -112.132
13-Jul-02 383 -24 392.000 -3.750 506.718 49.980
06-Jul-02 407 21 395.750 3.000 456.738 98.086
29-Jun-02 386 -6 392.750 0.750 358.652 -0.354
22-Jun-02 392 -6 392.000 -5.500 359.006 2.858
15-Jun-02 398 3 397.500 -6.000 356.148 -22.538
08-Jun-02 395 12 403.500 -7.500 378.686 69.421
01-Jun-02 383 -31 411.000 -8.500 309.265 -37.252
25-May-02 414 -8 419.500 -2.000 346.517 -2.798
18-May-02 422 -3 421.500 -1.250 349.315 -9.622
11-May-02 425 8 422.750 -6.750 358.937 -4.416
04-May-02 417 -5 429.500 -7.000 363.353 -4.807
27-Apr-02 422 -5 436.500 -17.500 368.160 -18.211
20-Apr-02 427 -25 454.000 3.250 386.371 -40.670
13-Apr-02 452 7 450.750 15.500 427.041 -7.684
06-Apr-02 445 -47 435.250 11.500 434.725 47.199
30-Mar-02 492 78 423.750 25.000 387.526 20.984
23-Mar-02 414 24 398.750 4.500 366.542 14.687
16-Mar-02 390 -9 394.250 0.750 351.855 -34.674
09-Mar-02 399 7 393.500 2.750 386.529 1.257
02-Mar-02 392 -4 390.750 0.750 385.272 17.769
23-Feb-02 396 9 390.000 -3.000 367.503 -9.088
16-Feb-02 387 -1 393.000 -3.250 376.591 -62.023
09-Feb-02 388 -1 396.250 -5.000 438.614 -6.949
02-Feb-02 389 -19 401.250 -2.250 445.563 13.875
26-Jan-02 408 8 403.500 -3.250 431.688 -126.607
19-Jan-02 400 -8 406.750 100.000 558.295 -240.412
12-Jan-02 408 10 306.750 NA 798.707 161.079
05-Jan-02 398 -23 NA NA 637.628 -5.680
29-Dec-01 421 -63 NA NA 643.308 NA
20-Oct-01 476 4 NA NA 429.541 NA

Unemployment Insurance, Continuing Claims

Release for week ended: December 28, 2002
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Data in millions, seasonally adjusted unless noted
Figures lag initial weekly claims by one week.

Week Receivng 4-week Insured Benefits Change
ended benefits Change average Rate unadj. unadj.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
28-Dec-02 NA NA NA NA NA NA
21-Dec-02 3.418 -56 3.411 2.7 3.438 -199
14-Dec-02 3.474 -7 3.421 2.7 3.637 93
07-Dec-02 3.481 212 3.455 2.7 3.544 -81
30-Nov-02 3.269 -190 3.475 2.6 3.625 519
23-Nov-02 3.459 -151 3.569 2.7 3.106 -157
16-Nov-02 3.610 47 3.594 2.8 3.263 163
09-Nov-02 3.563 -81 3.586 2.8 3.100 -37
02-Nov-02 3.644 87 3.581 2.9 3.137 78
26-Oct-02 3.557 -23 3.592 2.8 3.059 37
19-Oct-02 3.580 39 3.606 2.8 3.022 54
12-Oct-02 3.541 -150 3.623 2.8 2.968 -7
05-Oct-02 3.691 79 3.650 2.9 2.975 21
28-Sep-02 3.612 -37 3.624 2.8 2.954 -34
21-Sep-02 3.649 1 3.607 2.9 2.988 -25
14-Sep-02 3.648 63 3.576 2.9 3.014 -94
07-Sep-02 3.585 40 3.555 2.8 3.108 55
31-Aug-02 3.545 20 3.533 2.8 3.053 -141
24-Aug-02 3.525 -39 3.527 2.8 3.194 -68
17-Aug-02 3.564 67 3.520 2.8 3.261 -16
10-Aug-02 3.497 -24 3.498 2.7 3.277 -32
03-Aug-02 3.521 23 3.497 2.8 3.309 -52
27-Jul-02 3.498 22 3.512 2.7 3.362 -42
20-Jul-02 3.476 -16 3.535 2.7 3.403 -186
13-Jul-02 3.492 -90 3.583 2.7 3.589 21
06-Jul-02 3.582 -8 3.630 2.8 3.568 337
29-Jun-02 3.590 -76 3.672 2.8 3.231 -108
22-Jun-02 3.666 -17 3.711 2.9 3.340 10
15-Jun-02 3.683 -65 3.742 2.9 3.330 -51
08-Jun-02 3.748 1 3.770 2.9 3.381 8
01-Jun-02 3.747 -44 3.791 2.9 3.373 29
25-May-02 3.791 -3 3.813 3.0 3.343 -48
18-May-02 3.794 -38 3.809 3.0 3.392 -122
11-May-02 3.832 -1 3.795 3.0 3.513 2
04-May-02 3.833 58 3.760 3.0 3.511 -158
27-Apr-02 3.775 34 3.749 2.9 3.670 -0
20-Apr-02 3.741 51 3.743 2.9 3.670 -138
13-Apr-02 3.690 -101 3.712 2.9 3.808 -58
06-Apr-02 3.791 41 3.685 3.0 3.866 -209
30-Mar-02 3.750 133 3.623 2.9 4.076 101
23-Mar-02 3.617 37 3.571 2.8 3.975 -168
16-Mar-02 3.580 36 3.544 2.8 4.142 35
09-Mar-02 3.544 3 3.526 2.8 4.108 -152
02-Mar-02 3.541 30 3.526 2.8 4.259 25
23-Feb-02 3.511 2 3.506 2.7 4.234 -36
16-Feb-02 3.509 -32 3.480 2.7 4.270 32
09-Feb-02 3.541 80 3.483 2.8 4.238 -109
02-Feb-02 3.461 51 3.471 2.7 4.347 85
26-Jan-02 3.410 -109 3.479 2.7 4.262 -63
19-Jan-02 3.519 25 3.487 2.7 4.325 35
12-Jan-02 3.494 3 NA 2.7 4.291 -394
05-Jan-02 3.491 47 NA 2.7 4.685 459
29-Dec-01 3.444 NA NA 2.7 4.225 NA

US Jobless Claims Up 13K in Dec 28 Wk;Volatile Holiday Period

--Labor Department Says No Special Factors, Change Not Unusual
--Dec. 21 Week Initial Claims Revised Up Sharply as Reporting Period was
Compressed by Holiday
--Four-Week Moving Average Highest Level in Three Months

By Chris Middleton and Yali N`Diaye

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
continued to swing with the volatility of the holiday period, rising
13,000 to 403,000 in the Dec. 28 week with no special factors
identified, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning.

"The change is not really unusual," Labor Department analyst Thomas
Stengle said, and "not very large" relative to recent movements in the
December figures. He cited reporting volatility during the December
holidays and seasonal adjustment issues related to that as the
prevailing factors. It was the "same story," he added.

This week`s initial claims figure outpaced the high end of
expectations found in a Market News International survey, which had
centered on an increase of 2,000 initial claims to 380,000, with
forecasts ranging from 370,000 to 390,000.

Stengle suggested that the four-week moving average is a better
indicator of initial claims levels at this time of year. The four-week
average rose 11,250 to 418,750 for the week of Dec. 28. This was the
highest level since 424,500 on Sept. 28.

Initial claims for the Dec. 21 week were revised to 390,000, down
48,000 from the prior week and 12,000 higher than the originally
reported 378,000.

Stengle noted that this upward revision was the result of a
"compressed" reporting period because Christmas Eve fell on a Tuesday
and a "few more estimates than we typically do," from states reporting
the data.

Unadjusted claims surged by 128,723 to 612,829, below the 646,942
level reported in the comparable week in 2001.

Continuing claims stayed on the decline, falling another 56,000 in
the Dec. 21 week to 3.418 million.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7% for the
week ended Dec. 21, unchanged from the previous week, and down from 2.8%
a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is roughly half
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

For the week of Dec. 14, 782,522 jobless were enrolled in the
temporary extended unemployment claims benefits program. These benefits
expired on Dec. 28, as Congress adjourned for the year without approving
a further extension of the program.

President Bush has urged Congress to renew the program promptly
once lawmakers reconvene early next week.

==> Da wurden die Erwartungen zwar nicht erfüllt, dennoch sehe ich diese Arbeitsmarktdaten als sehr positiv. Zum einen weil Herr Bush hier etwas gegen die Arbeitslosigkeit aktiv mit Programmen tut, und zum anderen weil die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit wieder weniger werden könnte. Auch liegt der 4 Wochendurchschnitt noch sehr gut. Eine magische Grenze hier sind die 400.000 Neuanträge, in derem Rahmen die Zahlen noch liegen. Daher von mir ein positives Zeichen, obwohl die Erwartungen nicht erfüllt wurden. Ich denke sie wurden auch nicht erfüllt, da sich hier einige gemeldet haben, die aus aulaufenden staatlichen Programmen kamen, die aber wie es aussieht wohl weitergeführt werden können.

16:00
US ISM PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 54.7 DEC VS. 49.2 NOV…

==> Wie ich gestern schon Rally frei gesagt hatte kurz nach 16 Uhr, so ist der DAX dann ja auch um ganze 7,2% gestiegen. Die Zahlen waren ja auch Spitze. Einige haben mich wohl für verrückt erklärt als ich noch einen Anstieg gesehen habe, wo der Dax schon 3% gestiegen war. Meine Wertung für diese Zahlen:

(was ab jetzt so viel heißen soll wie Rally frei.

)

Soviel zu der Aufarbeitung von den gestriegen Zahlen.

schrieb am 03.01.03 13:33:55

Beitrag Nr. 85 ()

Und dann noch die Zahlen von heute in Kürze:

12:00 EU Verbraucherpreis-Index Dezember vorl. Eurozone: +2,…

==> Das ist soweit in Ordnung und konform mit dem Euro Stabilitätspakt.

schrieb am 03.01.03 13:44:55

Beitrag Nr. 86 ()

Um 16:00 Uhr kommt dann noch die Bauausgaben in den USA, die nahezu unverändert erwartet werden. Ich erwarte da zwar eher einen Rückgang, lasse mich somit gerne auch überraschen mit einer positiven Null.

Hier den mieserablen Verlauf der Bauausgaben der USA:

Ansonsten sehe ich die Chip Spot Märkte in Asien immer noch recht positv. Was mich positiv überrascht.

schrieb am 03.01.03 16:03:16

Beitrag Nr. 87 ()

Sehr positive Housing Zahlen => Die Rally geht weiter.

Mehr später.

schrieb am 03.01.03 16:20:47

Beitrag Nr. 88 ()

US NOV CONSTRUCTION SPENDING +0.3 PCT TO $843.2 BLN RATE VS OCT +1.0 PCT
US NOV PRIV RESIDENTIAL CONSTR +0.9%; NON-RESIDENTIAL -0.1%
US NOV PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION UNCH, PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION +1.5%
US NOV CONSTRUCTION SPENDING +0.3%; OCT +1.0% (PREV +0.3%)
US NOV NEW HOUSING +1.4%; RESIDENTIAL EX NEW HOUSING -0.4%
US NOV SINGLE-FAMILY CONSTRUCTION +1.6%; MULTI-UNIT +0.3%
US NOV PRIV RESIDENTIAL BUILDING $421.1M HIGHEST ON RECORD

US Data: Construction Spending Summary
Release for: November 2002
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Billions of U.S. dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate

yr-ago % change: Nov-02
Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 Nov-01 Nov-02Oct-02Sep-02yr/yr
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total (current $) 843.2 840.5 832.2 836.5 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.8
Total private 635.3 635.6 626.5 639.7 -0.0 1.5 -0.1 -0.7
Residential 421.1 417.3 412.2 394.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 6.7
New housing 303.4 299.1 296.7 282.2 1.4 0.8 1.4 7.5
1-family 271.3 267.1 263.8 250.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 8.5
Residential excl
new housing* 117.7 118.2 115.5 112.5 -0.4 2.3 -0.9 4.6
Nonresidential 158.7 158.9 156.5 185.4 -0.1 1.5 -2.1 -14.4
Total public 207.9 204.9 205.7 196.9 1.5 -0.4 1.4 5.6

Total (1996 $) 684.3 684.0 679.6 691.5 0.0 0.6 -0.1 -1.0
Total private 514.2 516.3 511.1 526.9 -0.4 1.0 -0.4 -2.4
Residential 337.1 335.7 333.5 321.7 0.4 0.7 0.2 4.8
Nonresidential 128.8 129.1 127.6 152.1 -0.2 1.2 -2.1 -15.3
Total public 170.1 167.7 168.5 164.6 1.4 -0.5 1.1 3.3

US Data: Construction Spending, Current Dollar, Change

Percent changes from previous month, current dollar(rounded levels)
Release for: November 2002
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Type of construction Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 Aug-02 Jul-02
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Total new construction 0.3 1.0 0.3 -1.0 0.5
Private construction -0.0 1.5 -0.1 -1.4 0.2
Residential buildings 0.9 1.2 0.7 -1.1 0.8
New housing units 1.4 0.8 1.4 -0.8 0.8
1 unit 1.6 1.3 1.7 -1.0 0.7
2 units or more 0.3 -3.0 -1.2 0.0 1.8
Nonresidential buildings -0.1 1.5 -2.1 -2.4 -1.8
Industrial -1.5 -0.7 -5.5 -7.6 -5.4
Office -0.6 -1.4 -6.0 -2.9 -0.3
Hotels, motels 2.2 1.1 -1.1 -7.1 -3.0
Other commercial 0.6 0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -2.0
Religious 5.2 -2.5 -1.2 -2.4 -3.5
Educational -2.1 14.3 1.6 -3.1 0.8
Hospital and institution -1.1 4.4 3.4 -1.7 -0.6
Miscellaneous buildings -3.7 2.5 -7.0 3.6 -4.6
Telecommunications NA 7.2 -7.3 -5.2 -6.0
All other private 0.0 -3.8 0.0 13.0 -23.3

Public construction 1.5 -0.4 1.4 0.3 1.5
Housing and redevelopment 5.5 -1.8 -6.7 5.3 0.0
Industrial 0.0 14.3 -36.4 22.2 -5.3
Educational 1.5 1.9 3.8 0.2 1.8
Hospital 4.1 -7.5 3.9 6.2 2.1
Other public buildings 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.3 -2.9
Highways and streets 2.7 -4.8 1.7 -1.3 6.0
Military facilities 0.0 -12.9 10.7 -15.2 10.0
Conservation and developm -11.8 10.4 2.7 7.1 -4.1
Sewer systems 0.0 -1.1 -3.2 0.0 1.1
Water supply systems -2.8 -2.7 4.2 1.4 -7.9
Miscellaneous public 4.8 4.4 0.6 -1.3 -0.6

MNI Calculation:
Residential building
excl new housing -0.4 2.3 -0.9 -1.9 0.7[/b]

==> Über diese Zahlen kann man sich wohl nicht beschweren. Auch liegen sie über den Erwartungen.

Ein paar Zahlen die mir gefallen habe ich fett markiert.

US Data: Construction Spending, Current Dollar, Levels

Value of new construction put in place (rounded levels)
Release for: November 2002
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Billions of current dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate

Type of construction Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 Aug-02 Jul-02
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Total new construction 843.2 840.5 832.2 829.8 837.8

Private construction 635.3 635.6 626.5 627.1 635.7
Residential buildings 421.1 417.3 412.2 409.3 414.0
New housing units 303.4 299.1 296.7 292.7 295.2
1 unit 271.3 267.1 263.8 259.3 261.8
2 units or more 32.1 32.0 33.0 33.4 33.4

Nonresidential buildings 158.7 158.9 156.5 159.8 163.7
Industrial 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.6 15.8
Office 33.8 34.0 34.5 36.7 37.8
Hotels, motels 9.3 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.8
Other commercial 53.3 53.0 52.8 53.0 53.3
Religious 8.1 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.2
Educational 14.1 14.4 12.6 12.4 12.8
Hospital and institution 18.6 18.8 18.0 17.4 17.7
Miscellaneous buildings 7.9 8.2 8.0 8.6 8.3

Telecommunications NA 16.3 15.2 16.4 17.3

All other private 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.3

Public construction 207.9 204.9 205.7 202.8 202.1
Housing and redevelopment 5.8 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.7
Industrial 1.6 1.6 1.4 2.2 1.8
Educational 67.0 66.0 64.8 62.4 62.3
Hospital 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.1 4.8
Other public buildings 31.2 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.2
Highways and streets 53.5 52.1 54.7 53.8 54.5
Military facilities 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.8 3.3
Conservation and developm 7.5 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.0
Sewer systems 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.5
Water supply systems 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.1 7.0
Miscellaneous public 17.3 16.5 15.8 15.7 15.9

MNI Calculation:
Residential building
excl new housing 117.7 118.2 115.5 116.6 118.8

US November Construction Spending Report
WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The following is the text of the report on
U.S. construction spending for November released Friday by the
Commerce Department:

Construction put in place during November 2002 was estimated at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of $843.2 billion, 0.3% above the
revised October estimate of $840.5 billion, according to the U.S.
Commerce Department`s Census Bureau. The November figure is 0.8% above
November 2001.

During the first 11 months of this year $782.0 billion of
construction was put in place, 0.3% above the $780.0 billion for the
same period in 2001.

In constant (1996) dollars, the November annual rate was $684.3
billion, 0.1% above the revised estimate of $684.0 billion for October.

PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION

Spending on new residential housing units was at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of $303.4 billion in November, 1.5% above the
revised October estimate of $299.1 billion. Nonresidential building
construction was at a rate of $158.7 billion, 0.1% below the revised
October estimate of $158.9 billion.

PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION

In November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of
public construction put in place was $207.9 billion, 1.5% above the
revised October estimate of $204.9 billion.

==> Die Bauausgaben sind zwar nur +0,3% gestiegen, aber das war deutlich über meinen Erwartungen, ich wäre schon mit +/-0,0% zufriegen gewesen. Daher bin ich ganz zufrieden mit den Zahlen, auch mit den Sektoren, so daß wieder Investitionen im Telekommunikaitonsbereich stattfinden gefällt mir.

schrieb am 03.01.03 21:17:32

Beitrag Nr. 89 ()

sehr wertvoll mein lieber, neue pflichtlektüre für mich

danke
Plus

schrieb am 04.01.03 17:48:47

Beitrag Nr. 90 ()

@Plus

Gerne geschehen. Ich habe vor dieses langsam zu erweitern. Ich bin schon sehr fleißig am schreiben einer Homepage. Bisher läuft sie nur auf meinem Rechner. Irgendwann wird sie auch im Netz sein. Auch wird ein Chat noch dazu kommen. Ab Montag habe ich zwar nicht mehr die Zeit realtime zu posten, aber ich möchte diesen Stil beibehalten.

@Alle

Jeder der konstruktiv postet ist gerne eingeladen mitzuwirken. Es geht wie gesagt um primäre Daten.

Zum Markt:

Wie man sieht konnten Dow und Nasdaq noch ein klein wenig gegenüber 20 Uhr zulegen. Aus den Mittelwerten der Kurse von Lang und Schwarz berechne ich derzeit einen DAX von 3112 Punkten. Letzte Indikationen von DB 3108 LUS 3102 Citi 3109.

Wie nachhaltig die Reaktion auf die positiven Zahlen aus den USA weiterhin sein kann muß sich erst zeigen. Der Ölpreis ist wieder etwas gestiegen, und auch die Bonds zeigen erst mal weiter Stärke. Positiv ist jedoch, daß die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit in den USA leicht zurückgegangen ist. Weiterhin ist nun die Zeit in der nach der Inventur die Lager wieder aufgestockt werden. So daß, trotz mieser Lage die Konjunktur noch einen kleinen Schub bekommen kann. Die weiteren Zahlen werden den Weg weisen.

schrieb am 04.01.03 17:52:45

Beitrag Nr. 91 ()

Zu der Schlußbewegung am Freitag ist noch anzumerken, daß die Fed "no action" hatte.

schrieb am 04.01.03 18:03:25

Beitrag Nr. 92 ()

Dazu kommt auch noch das nach Handelsschluß in den USA Hewlett-Packard auf Strong Buy von zuvor Outperform von SG Cowen angehoben wurde. Davon könnten die Techs hierzulande auch noch ein wenig profitieren. Die Banken hingegen, könnten durch das Downgrade der Citi etwas nachgeben. Dementsprechend sieht auch das nachbörliche Bild bei Lang und Schwarz aus, wo die Commerzbank aktuell etwas abgibt und die Techs und auch eine Thyssen zulegen.

schrieb am 04.01.03 18:21:20

Beitrag Nr. 93 ()

Ein paar Informationen zum Ölpreis, da die Konjunktur ja zweifelsohne sehr davon abhängig ist. Es ist ja hinlänglich bekannt, das vor allem die USA ein großes Interesse an dem Öl vom Irak haben. Aktionen wie Food for Oil hat ja jeder schon einmal gehört. Im Oktober und November haben die Ammis ja eine Menge Öl von den Irakis für einen Spotpreis bekommen. Aktuell hat sich die Lage beim Öl ja vorwiegend durch den Streik in Venezuela verschärft, damit nicht genug, Venezulea hat dann sogar importiert (, das war aber nur ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein für Venezuela). Darauf hin ist der Preis stark angezogen, dazu kommt der Winter und verrückte Spekulaten, die den Preis durch Hamsterkaufe zeitweise gepuscht haben. Ich denke auch einige große Nationen des Westens haben diese Sitiation zusätzlich verschärft. Die Opec hat vor einigen Monaten gesagt bei einem Preis von über 26 USD pro Barrel die Förderquoten anzuheben. Aktuell haben sie jetzt noch einmal erwogen bei einem Preis von über 29 USD pro Barrel die Förderquoten offiziell anzuheben. Sie sind dem Ölpreis also recht entgegenkommend gesonnen.

Hier mal ein Artikel vom 4.1.2002 18:06 Uhr:

Iraq submits Dec, Jan oil prices for U.S.
NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Second-half December prices for
Iraqi crude oil shipped to Europe and full-month December
prices for Asian-bound shipments were approved on Thursday by
the U.N. Iraqi sanctions committee, and Iraq has submitted
fresh proposals for U.S.-bound crude for December, U.N.
diplomats said.
Fresh proposals for January prices for Europe- and
U.S.-bound shipments were also proposed by Iraq, and they are
expected to be put on hold, diplomats said.
The January price proposal for Asian-bound shipments is
already on hold and expected to remain on hold, they said.
The United States and Britain continue their policy of not
allowing approval of Iraq oil prices until after shipments are
made. This retroactive pricing policy has been in effect since
October 2001 as a way to thwart any illegal surcharge from
Baghdad on oil contracts.
Iraq has reportedly dropped the surcharge in the past
several months, but the two Western permanent members of the
U.N. Security Council keep the retroactive pricing policy to
keep Iraq from returning to the under-the-table fees.
Baghdad`s original proposal for U.S. prices in December
were for the full month for both of its crude oil grades,
Basrah Light and Kirkuk sour. Those proposals were put on hold
Dec. 2 and then last week rejected.
The new U.S. proposals from Iraq are broken into shorter
periods.
The deadline for U.N. Iraqi sanctions committee action on
the new price proposals is 4 p.m. EST (2100 GMT) on Monday.

A summary follows.
For the U.S. market:
--Dec 1-10 Basrah Light, second-month West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) minus $6.35 a barrel. Approval pending.
--Dec 1-10 Kirkuk, first-month WTI minus $5.85. Approval
pending.
--Dec 11-25 Basrah Light, second-month WTI minus $6.10.
Approval pending.
--Dec 11-20 Kirkuk, first-month WTI minus $4.60. Approval
pending.
--Dec 21-31 Kirkuk, first-month WTI minus $5.30. Approval
pending.
--Dec 26-31 Basrah Light, second-month WTI minus $5.40.
Approval pending.
Initial proposals were: Dec 1-31 Basrah Light at
second-month WTI minus $6.70, and Dec 1-31 Kirkuk, first-month
WTI minus $6.00. Both initial proposals were rejected on Dec.
27.
--Jan 1-31 Basrah Light, second-month WTI minus $5.55.
Approval pending.
--Jan 1-31 Kirkuk, first-month WTI minus $4.90. Approval
pending.

For the Asian market:
--Dec 1-31 Basrah Light, Oman/Dubai minus 20 cents.
Approved on Jan. 2.
--Jan 1-31 Basrah Light, Oman/Dubai minus 15 cents. On hold
since Dec. 13.

For the European market:
-- Dec 1-15 Kirkuk, Dated Brent minus $2.75. Approved.
-- Dec 1-15 Basrah Light, Dated Brent minus $4.30.
Approved.
-- Dec 16-31 Basrah Light, Dated Brent minus $4.95.
Approved on Jan. 2.
-- Dec 16-31 Kirkuk, Dated Brent minus $2.60. Approved on
Jan. 2.
-- Jan 1-15 Kirkuk, Dated Brent minus $2.45. Approval
pending.
-- Jan 1-15 Basrah Light, Dated Brent minus $4.75. Approval
pending.

schrieb am 04.01.03 18:37:50

Beitrag Nr. 94 ()

Hier die Zahlen zu den Autoverkäufen:

Auto industry U.S. Dec results by auto groups

DETROIT, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. sales and market shares of
cars and light trucks listed by auto groups and their wholly owned subsidiaries
for December versus the same year-earlier month and for the year-to-date.
Percent changes are based on the daily sales rate.

Makers Dec 2002 % Chng Share Yr Volume % Chng Share
------ -------- ------ ----- --------- ------ -----
GM-Group 469,618 36.1 32.5 4,820,016 -0.9 28.7
Traditional 466,875 36.4 32.3 4,782,211 -0.9 28.4
Saab 2,743 4.9 0.2 37,805 0.7 0.2
----------
Ford-Group 303,734 12.6 21.0 3,616,590 -8.7 21.5
Traditional 283,930 13.5 19.7 3,403,729 -9.6 20.2
Volvo 11,454 9.1 0.8 110,670 -12.0 0.7
Jaguar 4,697 -11.9 0.3 61,204 37.4 0.4
Land Rover 3,653 -5.8 0.3 40,987 50.7 0.2
----------
DaimlerChryslr 193,782 1.7 13.4 2,418,671 -2.5 14.4
Chrysler 172,494 0.8 11.9 2,205,446 -3.0 13.1
Mercedes 21,288 10.3 1.5 213,225 3.2 1.3
----------
VW-Group 34,147 -0.2 2.4 423,851 -3.4 2.5
Traditional 25,865 -5.2 1.8 338,125 -4.9 2.0
Audi 8,282 19.3 0.6 85,726 2.9 0.5
----------
Hyundai-Grp 40,069 -0.3 2.8 612,464 7.5 3.6
Hyundai 25,444 8.4 1.8 375,119 8.3 2.2
Kia 14,625 -12.4 1.0 237,345 6.1 1.4
----------
Other Firms 402,641 1.1 27.9 4,925,617 1.3 29.3
Toyota 141,491 2.0 9.8 1,756,127 0.9 10.4
Honda 100,736 10.4 7.0 1,247,834 3.3 7.4
Nissan 57,499 -2.2 4.0 739,525 5.1 4.4
Mitsubishi 31,565 3.8 2.2 345,111 7.0 2.1
Mazda 16,971 -7.4 1.2 258,213 -4.2 1.5
BMW 26,252 48.3 1.8 256,622 20.4 1.5
Subaru 14,931 -2.5 1.0 180,020 -3.2 1.1
Isuzu 4,243 -0.4 0.3 52,992 -35.7 0.3
Daewoo -100.0 0.0 -100.0 0.0
Suzuki 7,614 102.2 0.5 67,855 4.9 0.4
Porsche 1,339 -20.2 0.1 21,318 -7.5 0.1
Total 1,443,991 14.4 100.0 16,817,209 -2.1 100.0

==> Unglaublich aber wahr. Die Zahlen waren gut.

Insgesamt 14,4% mehr als im Vormonat, wenn auch 2,1% weniger im Jahresvergleich. Nur muß man sehen für wen die Zahlen im einzelnen gut waren. BMW konnte 48,3% gegenüber dem Vormonat zulegen, und sogar 20,4% im Jahresvergleich. Damit ist BMW spitze.

Mieser sieht es hingegen bei Porsche aus, die deutlich abgeben mußten.

(Und der Harald Schmidt kauft doch jetzt nur noch Porsche Aktien, oder irgendwie so war das doch. :confused:

)

Alles in allem gute Nachrichten für so einige Autohersteller, vielleicht nicht gerade Porsche.

Vielleicht sind die Konsumenten aufgrund der Autoanschaffungen ja auch nicht zu Homedepot gegangen.

Für die Autos, insbesondere Audi, BMW, und Daimler-Crysler

schrieb am 04.01.03 20:09:46

Beitrag Nr. 95 ()

US: Recap of Economic Indicators: Jul 2002-Dec 2002

Posted January 3

Latest update: January 3, 2003

Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02

UI Claims (wk/4wk)
wk 1 407/396 382/381 433/411 389/414 397/404 444/388
wk 2 383/392 391/383 430/420 414/410 401/400 438/402
wk 3 366/386 395/390 411/420 394/405 382/397 390/408
wk 4 391/387 410/395 424/425 409/402 368/387 403/419
wk 5 407/401 358/377

Nonfarm Payrolls +54k +123k -84k +86k -40k
Mfg Payroll -15k -52k -50k -44k -45k
Unemployment 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 6.0%
Avg wkly hours 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.2
Avg hrs - Mfg 40.7 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.7
Aggr Hrs Index -0.8% +0.3% +0.3% -0.1% 0.0%
Aggr Hrs - Mfg -1.0% +0.2% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4%
Hourly Earnings +0.1% +0.5% +0.1% +0.3% +0.3%

PPI -0.2% +0.1% +0.1% +1.1% -0.4%
PPI core -0.4% 0.0% +0.1% +0.5% -0.3%
CPI +0.1% +0.3% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1%
CPI core +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2%
Import Prices +0.4% +0.3% +0.7% UNCH -1.0%

ISM Prices Paid 68.3 61.5 62.5 58.3 55.7 56.9

M2 (bln) +$59.1 +$44.8 +$25.1 +$48.4 +$46.9

C&I loans (bln) 982.2 982.3 975.7 970.3 967.7
Treasury Budget(bn) -$29.2 -$54.7 +$42.5 -$54.0 -$59.1
Consumer Credit(bn) +$7.4 +$3.0 +$4.7 +$1.5

Cons Confidence 97.4 94.5 93.7 79.6 84.9 80.3
Mich. Sentiment 88.1 87.6 86.1 80.6 84.2 86.7

Car Sales, rate 6.5 6.6 5.5 5.3 5.6
Truck Sales 8.2 8.9 7.4 7.2 7.1
Total 14.7 15.5 12.9 12.5 12.7

Retail Sales +1.2% +0.5% -1.5% +0.1% +0.4%
Ex. motor vehicles +0.2% +0.2% -0.1% +0.8% +0.5%

Personal Income -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Pers Spending +1.1% +0.3% -0.4% +0.4% +0.5%

ISM Index 50.5 50.5 49.5 48.5 49.2 54.7
Chicago Purch 51.5 54.9 48.1 45.9 54.3 51.3
Phila. Fed 6.6 -3.1 2.3 -13.1 6.1 7.2
ISM Non-mfg Index 53.1 50.9 53.9 53.1 57.4

Ind Production +0.7% -0.2% 0.0% -0.6% +0.1%
Capacity Util 76.4% 76.1% 76.1% 75.5% 75.6%

Factory Orders +4.4% -0.4% -2.4% +1.5%
Durables +8.5% -1.1% -0.9% +1.7% -1.4%
Ex. defense cap g +9.3% -2.0% -5.2% +3.9% -2.3%
Ex.transport. +2.9% -1.7% 0.0% +1.7% -1.3%
Nondurables -0.2% +0.5% +0.3% +0.6%

Mfg Shipments +1.6% -0.7% -0.3% +1.0%

Bus. Inventories +0.4% +0.1% +0.6% +0.2%
Factory -0.1% +0.1% +0.2% 0.0%
Retail +0.8% 0.0% +1.3% +0.7%
Wholesale +0.6% +0.1% +0.4% -0.3%

Housing Starts 1.652 1.631 1.808 1.657 1.697
Building Permits 1.712 1.666 1.733 1.772 1.738
NAHB Index 61 55 63 63 64 65

New Home Sales 958 1047 1053 1011 1069
Existing Homes 5.37 5.30 5.44 5.76 5.56

Construct Spend +0.5% -1.0% +0.3% +1.0% +0.3%
Residential +0.8% -1.1% +0.7% +1.2% 0.9%
Nonresidential -1.8% -2.4% -2.1% +1.5% -0.1%

Trade Balance (bln) -$35.1 -$38.1 -$37.1 -$35.1
Exports $82.9 $83.2 $82.8 $82.0
Imports $118.0 $121.2 $119.9 $117.0
Goods Only, BOP -$39.0 -$42.3 -$41.8 -$41.8

Leading index -0.2% -0.2% -0.4% +0.1% +0.7%

1Q 2Q 3Q
GDP (chain-wt) +5.0% +1.3% +4.0%
Final Sales +2.4% -0.1% +3.4%
Chain prices +1.3% +1.2% +1.0%
Current-dollar +6.5% +2.5% +5.1%

Nonfarm Product +8.6% +1.7% +5.1%
Unit labor costs -5.3% +2.2% -0.2%

ECI (qtr/qtr) +0.8% +1.0% +0.8%

schrieb am 04.01.03 22:41:24

Beitrag Nr. 96 ()

Hier der Fahrplan für die nächste Woche:
(Vorsicht bitte mit den Zahlen zu den Erwartungen, diese können am Tag der Zahlen schon wieder anders sein!!! Lengende dazu ist unten.)

Montag 06.01.03:

09:45 Italien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
09:50 Frankreich Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen Dezember 2002): zR 54,1 R 54,1 sR 53,2 bis 54,6
09:55 Deutschland BME/Reuters Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen) zR SA 45,6
??:?? Deutschland VDMA machinery orders (y/y) zR -2%
10:00 EU Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
10:30 Großbritannien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
16:00 USA ISM-Index (Dienstleistungen Dezember 2002): zR 57,4 C 55,8 R 55,5 A 56,5 sR 53,1 bis 61,5
16:00 USA Challenger Job-cut Report Dec 2002: zR 157.508

Pressekonferenzen von:
BMW
DaimlerChrysler
Honda Motor
Toyota Motor
Volkswagen AG

Dienstag 07.01.03:

08:00 Deutschland Ret sales ex-auto/gas (y/y) Nov 2002: zR -1,1%
??:?? Deutschland BBK Total retail sales (y/y) Nov 2002: zR -0.1%
??:?? Deutschland BBK Retail ex-auto/gas (y/y) Nov 2002: zR -0.9%
08:45 Frankreich Verbrauchervertrauen Dezember 2002: zR -16 R -16 sR -19 bis -14
12:00 EU Wirtschaftsstimmung
12:00 EU Geschäftsklimaindex-Arbeitslosigkeit November 2002-Erzeugerpreise Indusrtire November 2002
13:45 USA BTM-UBSW Chain Store Sales (wk1/4, 2003): zR +2,1%
14:55 USA Redbook (wk1/4, 2003): zR +0,7%
16:00 USA Auftragseingänge d. Industrie (Nov 2002): zR +1,5% (zA +1,2%) C -0,6% R -0,5% A -0,5% sR -1,0% bis +0,4%
21:00 USA Treasury STRIPS (Dec, 2002): zR -197,4 Mill. USD

11:00 Deutschland PK des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Konjunkturprognose 2003/2004
14:30 Tiffany & Co. Holiday Sales Results Conference Call

Mittwoch 08.01.03:

08:45 Frankreich November 2002 Govt budget deficit (Jahr zu Jahr): zR +22,6 Mrd. EUR
12:00 EU Einzelhandel Oktober
13:00 USA Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Purchase Applications Index (wk1/3, 2003) zR+10,9%
??:?? USA ABC/Money Consumer Servey zR -21
21:00 USA Konsumentenkredite Nov 2002: zR 1,5 Mrd. C 3,8 Mrd. R 4,0 Mrd. A 7,0 Mrd. sR 3,0 Mrd. bis 6,5 Mrd.

RWE vorläufige Jahreszahlen => wir erinnern uns an die starken Abschreibungen
Thyssen Krupp Analystenkonferenz
Alcoa earnings release Q4 2002: EPS z +0,11 USD (Vorjahr) F +0,25 USD

Donnerstag 09.01.03:

09:50 Deutschland Arbeitslosenzahlen Level Dezember 2002: zR SA +35,000 R SA +30,000
09:50 Deutschland Arbeitslosenrate Dezember 2002: zR SA 10.0%
13:00 Großbritannien Bank of England Policy Meeting Announcement (Jan, 2003)
13:45 EU European Central Bank Policy Meeting Announcement (Jan, 2003)
14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenversicherung: zR +13k auf 403k R -8k auf 395k A -13k auf 390k sR 385k bis 400k
16:00 USA Lagerbestände (Großhandel): zR -0,3% C +0,2% A +0,3%
16:00 USA Großhandelsumsätze (Nov 2002)
17:00 USA Chain Store Sales (Jan, 2003)
22:30 USA Monetary Supply (M2) (wk12/30, 2002): zR +11,4 Mrd. USD

Metro vorläufige Jahreszahlen
15:00 Toys R Us Holiday Season Sales Release Conference Call

Da am Freitag die Frühindikatoren in Japan anstehen, vorsicht mit Übernachtpositionen!!!

Freitag 10.01.03:

06:00 Japan Frühindikatoren (vorl.)
08:00 Deutschland Außenhandel November 2002: zR +11,1 Mrd. EUR R +9,7 Mrd. EUR
08:00 Deutschland Leistungsbilanz November 2002: zR -24,8 Mrd. EUR
08:00 Deutschland Rohstahlproduktion Dezember 2002
08:00 Deutschland Insolvenzen September 2002
08:45 Frankreich BIP Q3 2002 (endg.), vorläufige Zahlen waren (q/q;y/y) +0.2%;+0.8%
10:30 Großbritannien Außenhandel
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Monat zu Monat => zR +1,1% R -0,6%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Jahr zu Jahr => zR +4,4% R +3,3%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Inland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe : Monat zu Monat => zR +1,5%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Inland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Jahr zu Jahr => zR +1,5%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Ausland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Monat zu Monat => zR +0,6%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Ausland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Jahr zu Jahr => zR +8,2%
14:30 USA Stundenlöhne (durchschnittlich): Monat zu Monat=> zR +0,3% C +0,3% R +0,3% A +0,3% sR +0,2% bis +0,3%
14:30 USA Stundenlöhne (durchschnittlich): Jahr zu Jahr => zR +2,9%
14:30 USA Durchschnittliche Arbeitswoche: zR 34,2h C 34,2h R 34,2h A 34,2h sR 34,2h bis 34,4h
14:30 USA Beschäftigte ausserhalb der Landwirtschaft: zR -40k C +21k R +25k A +10k sR -10k bis +100k
14:30 USA Beschäftigte im verarbeitenden Gewerbe: zR -45k R -20k
14:30 USA Arbeitslosenzahlen: zR 6,0% C 6,0% R 6,0% A 6,0% sR 5,8% bis 6,1%
16:30 USA ECRI Leading Index 03-Jan: zR 117.6

Legende:
z => die letzten Zahlen die ich dort habe `z` wie zuvor
s => Spannweite einer Umfrage
C => Erwartung Consensus
R => Erwartungen Reuters Median
F => Erwartungen Forbes
A => Erwartung andere Quellen
SA => an die Periode angepaßte Zahlen

Zusammensetzungen:
zR => letzte Zahl diesbezüglich von Reuters
zR => letzte Zahl diesbezüglich aus anderen Quellen
sR => Spannweite der Umfragen von Reuters

schrieb am 05.01.03 19:01:58

Beitrag Nr. 97 ()

schrieb am 06.01.03 19:12:17

Beitrag Nr. 98 ()

ITALY REUTERS/ADACI DEC PMI SERVICES INDEX 55.0 VS NOV 55.4
ITALY REUTERS/ADACI DEC SERVICES INPUT PRICES 58.2 VS NOV 58.5
ITALY REUTERS/ADACI DEC SERVICES PRICES CHARGED 47.9; NOV 49.8

Italy service sector grows in December
MILAN, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Following is the table on the
Reuters/ADACI Italian service sector business activity survey
for November by NCT Research, which compiles the index for
Reuters.

ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED
DEC NOV DEC NOV
Business activity index 55.02 55.41 54.57 52.24
New business 54.25 54.33 55.74 52.73
Outstanding business 43.49 44.48 42.67 43.14
Employment 50.13 51.65 47.90 50.05
Prices charged 47.87 49.79 44.92 46.93
Input prices 58.17 58.54 57.69 57.35
Business expectations 75.93 77.46 75.93 77.46

==> Sehr positive Zahlen aus Italien. Die Geschäftsaktivitäten nehmen wieder zu.

FRANCE REUTERS/CDAF DEC PMI SERVICES INDEX 54.4 VS NOV 54.1
FRANCE REUTERS/CDAF DEC SERVICES INPUT PRICES 55.7 VS NOV 56.0
FRANCE REUTERS/CDAF DEC SERVICE PRICES CHARGED 50.2; NOV 51.8

CDAF/Reuters French services PMI at 54.4
PARIS, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Following is a table of December
data for the CDAF/Reuters Purchasing Managers` Index for the
French services sector. All figures are seasonally adjusted
except the business expectations index.
Dec Nov Dec 2001
Business activity 54.4* 54.1 52.5
Employment 50.1** 51.8 49.1
Prices charged 50.2 51.8 53.0
New business 55.0 54.5 53.7
Input prices 55.7 56.0 54.6
Outstanding business 54.8 53.6 50.3
Business expectations 70.3*** 67.6 65.5
* Expanded for 13th month in a row.
** Second month of expansion, but slower expansion than in
November.
*** Fastest rate of expansion since August 2002.

CDAF/Reuters French services PMI at 54.4
PARIS, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Following is the full text of the
French CDAF/Reuters survey of France`s service sector for
December provided by NTC Research, which compiles the index.

French service sector sees further strong growth of activity
and new business, but margins remain under pressure from strong
competition.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
December`s CDAF/Reuters survey of the French services
economy signalled further expansion in the sector in December.
The headline Business Activity Index recorded 54.4, up from
54.1 in November and for the second month running from October`s
ten-month low.
The latest index reading was the highest since August (and
indicative of solid underlying growth), but remained well down
on levels seen throughout much of 1999 and 2000 as around a
fifth of the survey panel continued to report that the current
economic environment had encouraged budget reductions and
reduced investment.

NEW BUSINESS, OUTSTANDING BUSINESS AND EMPLOYMENT:
The latest rise in workloads generally reflected a further
increase in the amount of new business placed at panel member
service companies.
Even after accounting for the strong seasonal effects of
year-end budget spending, December`s survey registered a marked
rise in levels of incoming new business, with growth
accelerating for the second month running to the strongest since
July.
Increased commercial activities were reported to have
assisted firms` efforts to secure new contracts during the
month.
In line with the strong growth of new business seen in
recent months, French services providers reported a second
successive monthly rise in their levels of outstanding business
in December.
Moreover, with a number of companies reporting that the 35
hour working week regulations had restricted their ability to
clear uncompleted work from their schedules, the rise in
backlogs was the sharpest for eighteen months.
Despite some evidence of pressure on capacity arising from
the strong rise in new business, French service providers
generally chose to leave their staffing levels unchanged through
the month.
Over 80 percent of the survey panel reported no change in
the size of their workforce on one month earlier, while those
expanding staffing levels to satisfy higher workloads were
balanced out by those companies reporting redundancies in the
face of falling demand.

INPUT PRICES AND PRICES CHARGED:
Stronger demand conditions in December failed to raise the
pricing power of services companies and, despite a further month
of significant input price inflation, output prices remained
broadly unchanged over the month.
Strong competition was reported to have discouraged all but
10 percent of the survey panel from raising their charges, and
this inability to pass on higher costs to customers suggests
that profit margins are being squeezed.

FUTURE ACTIVITY:
Finally, the latest survey showed confidence regarding
future activity levels recover further from October`s recent
low.
Overall business optimism was the highest since the summer,
reflecting widespread expectations of a general market recovery
through 2003.

NEW BUSINESS:
After accounting for strong seasonal effects such as the
spending of budgets prior to the year-end, December`s survey
recorded a further strong rise in overall levels of incoming new
business placed with French private sector service providers.
At a level of 55.0, up from 54.5 in November, the seasonally
adjusted Incoming New Business Index indicated the fourteenth
straight month of rising demand for services and the sharpest
rise since July.
Increased investment in business development, new products
and commercial activities were all reported to have improved
sales levels.
The Financial Intermediation sector saw the strongest
growth, partly reflecting seasonal factors.

OUTSTANDING BUSINESS:
Having signalled two consecutive months of marginal
contraction in the autumn, the seasonally adjusted Outstanding
Business Index rose further above 50.0 in December to indicate
an acceleration in the rate of growth of backlogs of work at
French service sector firms.
Moreover, at a level of 54.8, the index suggested the
sharpest rise in backlogs of work for eighteen months, with the
increase driven principally by the strong growth of new business
recorded in recent months.
Levels of outstanding work rose at the strongest pace in the
Financial Intermediation sector which again partly reflected
year-end effects. In contrast, backlogs fell again in the
Transport & Storage sector.

EMPLOYMENT:
At a level of 50.1 in December, down from 51.8 in November,
the seasonally adjusted Employment Index indicated that staffing
levels in the French service sector had remained broadly
unchanged over the month.
Those companies that recruited additional staff over the
month generally reported that they had boosted staffing levels
in order to cope with rising workloads.
In contrast, those firms that reduced their workforces in
December attributed the declines to a combination of forced
redundancies and the non-replacement of leavers, as demand
levels at their units remained uncertain.
Both the Transport & Storage and Post & Telecoms sectors
reported modest drops in their staffing levels.

PRICES CHARGED:
December`s survey suggested that, despite strong growth in
demand for services over the past two months, the pricing power
of French service providers remained only weak.
At 50.2, down from 51.8 in November, the seasonally adjusted
Prices Charged Index remained only marginally above the no
change level. Where charges rose, the increases were generally
the direct result of higher costs as opposed to measures to
raise margins.
Strong competition and price discounting designed to attract
new business were widely reported by those firms that reported
lower charges. A number of Financial Intermediation firms also
reported lower interest rates following the recent ECB rate cut.

INPUT PRICES:
At a level of 55.7 in December, the seasonally adjusted
average Input Prices Index signalled a further month of sharply
rising input prices in the French service sector.
Around 17 percent of all firms surveyed reported a rise in
their costs over the month, with higher salaries and increased
fuel prices reported to have been the principal inflationary
influences.
Costs rose sharpest in the Hotels & Restaurants and
Transport & Storage sectors, with inflation in the latter
largely reflecting the higher cost of fuel.
Despite remaining significant, the overall pace of input
price inflation eased slightly over the month and remained well
down on levels seen at the start of the year and significantly
below the highs recorded in mid-2000.

FUTURE ACTIVITY:
December`s survey pointed to a further recovery in overall
future business confidence following the thirteen-month low
recorded in October.
The Business Expectations Index rose for the second month
running to register 70.3, its highest level since August, as
almost half of all companies surveyed reported their expectation
that activity levels at their units would be higher in twelve
months` time than at present.
Optimism was broadly based on hopes of the success of new
commercial campaigns, increased investment, new product launches
and technological advances, but increased confidence also
reflected expectations of general market recovery by late 2003.

==> Ebenfalls sehr schöne Zahlen aus Frankreich!!!

GERMANY:REUTERS DEC PMI SERVICES ACTIVITY INDEX 45.4; NOV 45.6
GERMANY: REUTERS DEC SERVICE INPUT PRICE INDEX 49.6; NOV 49.4
GERMANY: REUTERS DEC SERVICE PRICES CHARGED 45.0; NOV 44.7

German Dec service index falls to s/a 45.4 vs 45.6
BERLIN, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The German services sector
continued to contract in December, falling to its lowest level
since September, the Reuters German services survey showed on
Monday.
NTC Research, which compiles the monthly survey provided the
following data:
SERVICE INDEX
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED
DEC 02 NOV 02 DEC 02 NOV 02
Business activity 45.4 45.6 47.1 45.7
Business expectations 43.6 39.5 43.6 39.5
Incoming new business 45.6 44.5 46.1 45.0
Outstanding business 42.2 44.1 39.8 42.7
Employment 42.6 43.1 41.6 42.6
Prices charged 45.0 44.7 44.4 45.1
Input prices 49.6 49.4 47.8 50.3

==> Das ist im Grunde wirklich nicht mehr schön, daß es hier sogar im Dezember wieder rückläufig war, aber anderes habe ich eigentlich auch nicht erwartet bei dieser Regierung.

EMU REUTERS DEC PMI SERVICES ACTIVITY INDEX 50.6, NOV 50.8
EMU REUTERS DEC SERVICE INPUT PRICE INDEX 53.4; NOV 53.6
EMU REUTERS DEC SERVICE PRICES CHARGED 47.3; NOV 48.0

Reuters Eurozone services index lower in Dec
LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Following are details of the
Reuters Eurozone Services Indices and the Reuters Eurozone
Composite Indices for December. The latter combines data from
the services survey and the Reuters Eurozone Purchasing Managers`
Index, which tracks the manufacturing sector.
Where there are revisions, previous figures are in brackets.
REUTERS EUROZONE SERVICES INDICES
DEC NOV DEC 01
Business activity 50.6 * 50.8 49.9
Employment 47.0 ** 48.0 48.9
Prices charged 47.3 ** 48.0 49.9
New Business 50.7 50.3 48.2
Input prices 53.4 *** 53.6 52.7
Outstanding business 46.9 47.5 45.3
Business expectations 59.8 **** 58.1 58.9

* Third month of expansion
** Fifth month of contraction
*** Lowest since December 2001
**** First rise in index since August
The consensus forecast for the December business activity
index was 50.9 according to the mean of 12 forecasts. The range
was 50.0 to 51.5.

==> Europa macht sich unerwartet gut, das begründet warum der Euro heute auch so für mich unerwartet positiv abgeschlossen hat. Leider zeigt es auch wie rückständig Deutschland in der EU geworden ist. Wichtig ist das der Indikator für Europa über 50 liegt! Sehr positiv die Erwartungskomponente des Indexes. Daher für Europa:

UK CIPS DEC PMI SVCES ACTIVITY INDEX 53.2 VS NOV 54.9
UK CIPS DEC PRICES CHARGED INDEX 52.7 VS NOV 51.6
UK CIPS DEC INPUT PRICES INDEX 55.2 VS NOV 54.6
UK CIPS DEC INCOMING NEW BUSINESS 53.0 VS NOV 53.9
UK CIPS DEC OUTSTANDING BUSINESS 46.4 V NOV 48.0
UK CIPS DEC EMPLOYMENT INDEX 47.9 VS NOV 47.9

UK CIPS/Reuters December services PMI
LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Following is the full text of the
UK CIPS/Reuters service sector survey for December:

SLOWER GROWTH OF NEW BUSINESS CAUSES SERVICES ACTIVITY TO
EASE TO THE WEAKEST SINCE FEBRUARY. INPUT AND OUTPUT PRICE
INFLATION ACCELERATES.

The CIPS/Reuters survey of UK private service sector
business conditions for December showed that solid expansion of
activity levls continued up to the end of 2002 but a weakening
in the rate of incoming new business caused a further easing in
the pace of growth of activity. The seasonally adjusted Business
Activity Index recorded 53.2, above the no change level of 50.0
for the twelfth consecutive month, but well down from the recent
peak of 56.7 recorded in May, and the lowest level since
February.
Levels of incoming new business to UK service providers have
also risen throughout 2002 although, in line with the headline
business activity series, growth of new business has slowed over
the past two months and in December was the weakest since
February. While intensive sales and marketing activities along
with the introduction of new products were reported to have
boosted workloads at around 17% of panel member companies, this
proportion of higher responses was well below levels seen
earlier in the year, as uncertainty regarding the economic
outlook was again reported to have resulted in client caution in
committing to new spending.
Slower growth of new work (and the cancellation of some
contracts) at UK service providers contributed to a further
decline in levels of outstanding business in December. Measured
overall, backlogs fell for the seventh successive month and at
the sharpest pace since December 2001, as a significant
proportion of firms reported that their ability to carry out new
work exceeded the rate at which new business at their units was
secured.
In line with the recent slowing in growth of new business
and continued evidence of surplus capacity in the services
economy, employment levels continued to be trimmed in December.
Just 10% of all firms surveyed reported that they had taken on
additional staff during the month, while redundancies were
reported at an increased proportion of companies.
Lower employment levels have also been linked to concerns
regarding future activity levels and, although future business
confidence rebounded modestly in December from November`s
eleven-month low, optimism remained below the average recorded
for 2002 as a whole.
Finally, the latest survey showed acceleration in the rates
of both input and output price inflation. While higher charges
were reported to reflect principally rising operational costs
(mainly higher wages, raw material prices and fuel costs), the
rate of output price inflation continued to lag well below that
of input prices, pointing to a further squeeze on companies`
profit margins.

ACTIVITY
December`s survey of the UK private sector services economy
pointed to further solid expansion of activity levels in the
final month of 2002. Rising levels of new business and increased
marketing initiatives were the principal factors mentioned by
the 16% of companies that reported a rise in their activity
during the month. Nevertheless, despite registering growth for
the twelfth month running in December, a second consecutive
monthly fall in the headline Business Activity Index indicated
that the overall rate of growth of activity had slowed to the
weakest since February. Lower levels of incoming new business
were widely reported by the 10% of firms that reported a
downturn in their activity levels.
With the exception of the Hotels & Catering sector, which
registered a strong seasonal uplift to workloads, all other
sectors reported that growth of activity had slowed during the
month. Growth remained strongest in Transport & Communications
and was weakest in Personal Services.

NEW BUSINESS
The seasonally adjusted Incoming New Business Index pointed
to a thirteenth straight month of rising demand for services in
December. Around 17% of firms reported that their workloads were
up on those recorded one month earlier as a slight improvement
in market conditions was reported to have helped the conversion
of intensive marketing efforts into new work. A number of firms
(particularly those providing Business Services) reported that
new public sector contracts had boosted their order books.
Nevertheless, at a level of 53.0, down further from October`s
recent high, the Index signalled an easing in the pace of growth
of new business to the weakest since February, and to a rate
below the average recorded throughout 2002 as a whole. Those
firms that reported lower levels of new business widely blamed
the current uncertain economic environment for client caution in
committing to new spending and the placement of new contracts.
In a number of cases, fragile business confidence also resulted
in the cancellation of orders. Growth of new business was
strongest in Transport & Communications and weakest in Financial
Intermediation.

OUTSTANDING BUSINESS
At a level of 46.4 in December, the seasonally adjusted
Outstanding Business Index signalled the seventh successive
monthly decline in overall backlogs of work at UK service
providers and the sharpest fall seen for twelve months. Just
over 16% of all firms surveyed reported a drop in their
uncompleted work in hand Ä almost twice the proportion that
registered a rise Ä suggesting that sufficient capacity existed
at the majority of service sector firms to comfortably deal with
existing workloads. Falling backlogs were directly linked to
lower levels of incoming new work and to the fact that
companies` ability to carry out new work significantly exceeded
the rate at which new business was secured.
All broad sectors of the private services economy covered by
this survey saw backlogs of work fall during December, with the
sharpest decline registered in the Financial Intermediation
sector, where growth of new business has been weakest in recent
months.

EMPLOYMENT
Employment in the UK services economy fell for the fifteenth
month running in December and at an identical rate to that seen
one month earlier. Around 14% of all firms reported a
contraction of their staffing levels, with the reduction of
capacity generally linked simply to falling workloads and
efforts to reduce costs and raise productivity. The
non-replacement of leavers was again widely reported in
December, while the incidence of firms reporting redundancies
was up on previous months.

CHARGES
At a level of 52.7 in December, the seasonally adjusted
Average Prices Charged Index suggested that, although remaining
relatively subdued, the overall rate of output price inflation
had accelerated to the sharpest since February 2001. Rising
operational costs were widely reported to have forced up the
prices charged by panel member firms in December. Those firms
reporting lower charges mentioned strong competition and efforts
to stimulate new business.

INPUT PRICES
December`s survey registered a continuation to the trend of
rising input prices recorded throughout the survey history, with
the rate of input price inflation for the latest period rising
slightly to the sharpest since June 2001. Rising wages and
salaries were again reported to have been the principal cause of
higher costs, although the increased price of raw materials,
fuel and energy and insurance premiums were also widely
mentioned. Despite picking up over the month, the overall pace
of cost inflation remained well down on levels seen throughout
2000.

EXPECTATIONS
Having fallen to an eleven-month low of 70.6 in November,
the Business Expectations Index rebounded modestly in December,
back to a level identical to that recorded in October. As has
been the case throughout 2002, over 50% of the survey panel
reported optimism in December regarding their activity levels
for the forthcoming year. Hopes of an improvement in both market
and economic (domestic and global) conditions underpinned many
firms` optimism for the coming year, with aggressive sales
policies, the introduction of new products, increased public
sector spending and planned expansions all cited as reasons for
confidence. Optimism nevertheless remained down on that
registered for 2002 as a whole.

==> Auch wenn die Expansionsgeschwindigkeit abnimmt, so gefallen mir die Zahlen unter dem Strich.

Dec02 Nov02 Oct02 Sep02 Aug02 Jul02 Dec01
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Business Activity* 54.7 57.4 53.1 53.9 50.9 53.1 50.1
New Orders* 56.3 58.0 50.9 52.3 51.6 52.6 51.5
Employment* 46.9 45.9 46.2 46.6 47.3 45.8 44.4
Supplier Deliveries 52.5 52.5 53.5 52.5 53.0 52.5 53.5
Inventory Change 45.5 44.0 44.0 44.5 46.0 52.0 48.5
Prices 51.5 54.0 54.0 52.5 53.5 59.0 38.5
Backlog 51.5 50.5 52.0 51.0 48.0 43.5 46.5
New Export Orders 54.0 58.5 49.0 57.5 46.0 59.5 55.0
Imports* 51.8 55.1 54.9 44.7 48.3 52.6 55.9
Inventory Sentiment 63.0 61.0 64.5 66.0 62.0 66.0 66.5" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">WHITE HOUSE:BUSH WANTS SUSTAINED ACCELERATION OF GROWTH IN `03
US ISM NON-MFG BUS. INDEX 54.7 DEC. VS 57.4 NOV., SEAS. ADJ.
US ISM NON-MFG NEW ORDERS 56.3 DEC VS 58.0 NOV., 51.5 DEC01
US ISM NON-MFG PRICES PAID 51.5 DEC VS 54.0 NOV, SEAS ADJ
US ISM NON-MFG EMPLOY INDEX 46.9 DEC. VS. 45.9 NOV., SEAS ADJ
US ISM NON-MFG SUPPL. DELIV 52.5 DEC VS 52.5 NOV, 53.5 DEC01
US ISM NON-MFG BACKLOG 51.5 DEC. VS. 50.5 NOV., 46.5 DEC01
US ISM NON-MFG INVENTORY CHG 45.5 DEC VS 44.0 NOV, 48.5 DEC01
US ISM NON-MFG EXPORT ORDER 54.0 DEC VS 58.5 NOV, 55.0 DEC01
US ISM NON-MFG IMPORTS INDEX 51.8 DEC VS 55.1 NOV, SEAS. ADJ.
US ISM NON-MFG INVNT SENT 63.0 OCT VS 66.0 SEP, 68.5 OCT01
US ISM: 7 INDUSTRIES UP, 6 DOWN, 4 UNCH

ISM U.S. non-manufacturing index 54.7 in Dec
TEMPE, Ariz., Jan 6 (Reuters) - The Institute for Supply
Management (ISM) on Monday said its monthly non-manufacturing
index, which measures the services sector of the economy, fell
to 54.7 in December from 57.4 in November.
A number above 50 indicates growth, while anything below 50
denotes contraction. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a
fall to 55.9.
Following are the main ISM non-manufacturing index
components:
Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July June
Bus Activity 54.7 57.4 53.1 53.9 50.9 53.1 57.2
New Orders 56.3 58.0 50.9 52.3 51.6 52.6 56.9
Backlog Orders 51.5 50.5 52.0 51.0 48.0 43.5 49.0
New Export Ords 54.0 58.5 49.0 57.5 46.0 59.5 57.5
Inventory Chg NA 44.0 44.0 44.5 46.0 52.0 47.5
Inventory Sent 63.0 61.0 64.5 66.0 62.0 66.0 66.0
Imports 51.8 55.1 54.9 44.7 48.3 52.6 55.2
Prices Index 51.5 54.0 54,0 52.5 53.5 59.0 54.0
Employment 46.9 45.9 46.2 46.6 47.3 45.8 44.3
Supplier Delivs 52.5 52.5 53.5 52.5 53.0 52.5 53.5

US Data: ISM Non-Mfg Business Activity Summary

Release for: December 2002
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Data not seasonally adjusted except where noted with a "*"

Dec02 Nov02 Oct02 Sep02 Aug02 Jul02 Dec01
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Business Activity* 54.7 57.4 53.1 53.9 50.9 53.1 50.1
New Orders* 56.3 58.0 50.9 52.3 51.6 52.6 51.5
Employment* 46.9 45.9 46.2 46.6 47.3 45.8 44.4
Supplier Deliveries 52.5 52.5 53.5 52.5 53.0 52.5 53.5
Inventory Change 45.5 44.0 44.0 44.5 46.0 52.0 48.5
Prices 51.5 54.0 54.0 52.5 53.5 59.0 38.5
Backlog 51.5 50.5 52.0 51.0 48.0 43.5 46.5
New Export Orders 54.0 58.5 49.0 57.5 46.0 59.5 55.0
Imports* 51.8 55.1 54.9 44.7 48.3 52.6 55.9
Inventory Sentiment 63.0 61.0 64.5 66.0 62.0 66.0 66.5

==> Was soll man sagen die Erwartungen von 55,5 wurden nicht getroffen, dennoch waren die Daten positiv für die Wirtschaft. Sie wächst. Daher gebe ich den Zahlen ein:

certainly not out of the woods yeat. Last year at this time, declines in
November and December gave way to a more than 86,000 job-cut surge in
January," he said.

The largest number of layoff announcements in December by industry
was in telecommunications (12,590) followed by transportation (11,212)
and government/non-profit (10,964).

The telecommunications sector had the lion`s share of layoffs in
2002 at 268,857, nearly twice as many as the next closest sector. For
all of 2001, telecommunications had 317,777 announcements." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US: Challenger 92,917 Layoffs in Dec v 161,584 Yr-Ago

--December 41% Lower than November, and 42% Lower than December 2001
--2002 1,466,823 Announcements vs. 1,956,876 in 2001
--Largest December Layoffs in Telecommunications, Transportation,
Government/Non-Profit

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Job cuts announced decreased 41% in December
to 92,917 from 157,508 in November, and were 42% below the year-ago
month reading of 161,584, job placement firm Challenger, Gray and
Christmas said in a report released Monday. Data are not seasonally
adjusted.

For all of 2002 there were 1,466,823 job cut announcements, 25%
lower than the 1,956,876 announcements of the January to December 2001
period.

In spite of the declines, CEO John Challenger was cautious. "We are
certainly not out of the woods yeat. Last year at this time, declines in
November and December gave way to a more than 86,000 job-cut surge in
January," he said.

The largest number of layoff announcements in December by industry
was in telecommunications (12,590) followed by transportation (11,212)
and government/non-profit (10,964).

The telecommunications sector had the lion`s share of layoffs in
2002 at 268,857, nearly twice as many as the next closest sector. For
all of 2001, telecommunications had 317,777 announcements.

==> Das erklärt nun den eigentlichen Anstieg nach 16 Uhr. Diese Zahlen zeigen nun wirklich eine deutlich positive Tendenz. Hierfür gibt es:

==> Das man hier in Deutschland den aktuellen Anstieg nicht überall nachvollziehn mag kann ich ja auch verstehen, aber die Zahlen waren eigentlich bis auf Deutschland auch ganz akzeptabel heute.

schrieb am 06.01.03 19:40:07

Beitrag Nr. 99 ()

Nicht zu vergessen heute die Upgrades bei Novellus und Applied Materials. Im Anbetracht der weiter steigenden Dram Spotpreise sind die Techs im Dax heute nicht besonders viel gestiegen.

schrieb am 06.01.03 19:43:19

Beitrag Nr. 100 ()

************************************************************…

schrieb am 06.01.03 22:59:41

Beitrag Nr. 101 ()

sehr vollständig mein lieber... :lick:

aber autowerte solltest du besser immo nicht mehr empfehlen :eek:

bis morgen
Plus

schrieb am 06.01.03 23:11:10

Beitrag Nr. 102 ()

nicht zu vergessen ist die morgige rede von herrn bush.
nachdem heute erste einzelheiten darüber bekannt wurden, kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass sein steuersenkungsprogramm noch wesentlich umfangreicher sein wird als bisher bekannt war.
hochrechnungen zufolge wird der dow um 10%- 15% daraufhin steigen.

unbeantwortet blieb die frage, wie alles finanziert werden soll! :eek:

allerdings haben wir heute bereits die ersten freundlichen bewegungen (für call-freunde) gesehen :lick:

jedem put-besitzer sei dringend geraten, morgen die futures zu beobachten!

Plus

schrieb am 07.01.03 20:21:52

Beitrag Nr. 103 ()

GERMANY NOV UNADJ REAL RETAIL SALES -6.0% Y/Y, NOM. -6.3% Y/Y
GERMANY NOV REAL SA RETAIL SALES -3.2% M/M, NOM. -3.3% M/M

Germany Data: NSA Retail Sales By Category, Summary
Release for: November 2002
Release date: January 7, 2003
Percent changes vs. year-ago period
Data are not adjusted for seasonal factors
Jan-Nov02/
Nov Jan-Nov01
Category: nom. real nom. real

Total Ex-Autos,
Gas Stations............... -6.3 -6.0 -2.2 -2.5
Food, Beverages,
tobacco................... -6.4 -6.4 0.1 -1.0
Non-special store sales... -6.3 -6.2 0.4 -0.7
Special store sales....... -6.9 -7.6 -2.5 -4.1
Non-food sales.............. -6.3 -5.8 -3.7 -3.5
Clothing, shoes............ -9.0 -8.7 -4.4 -5.0
Furniture, household....... -6.9 -7.4 -7.4 -8.1
Other assorted goods....... -7.4 -7.7 -6.0 -6.6
Pharmaceuticals, medical,
cosmetics................. 1.1 4.2 3.4 4.2=> unglaublich ein zuwachs hier in diesem Segment!!!!
Other goods................. -5.7 -5.7 -5.4 -6.1
Mail order.................. -6.9 -7.1 2.9 2.2

Germany Data:NSA Retail Sales Indexes, Y/Y Pct Chg History

Release for: November 2002
Release date: January 7, 2003
Real data are adjusted for price changes (1995=100)
Year-on- year data are not adjusted for seasonal
and calendar changes
|----Nominal-----| |------Real------|
Index Yr/Yr Index Yr/Yr
1995=100 Level % Chng Level % Chng
Nov02 103.6 -6.3 102.2 -6.0
Oct02 103.9 -0.5 101.9 -0.4
Sep02 96.3 -1.1 94.4 -0.8
Aug02 96.3 -2.4 94.7 -2.1
Jul02 99.2 1.2 97.4 1.7
Jun02 93.2 -3.8 91.3 -3.5
May02 99.9 -4.4 97.6 -4.7
Apr02 101.0 0.0 98.6 -1.0
Mar02 102.6 -2.0 100.2 -3.4
Feb02 86.9 -1.3 85.0 -2.7
Jan02 92.6 -2.6 90.8 -4.1
Dec01 123.2 -0.2 121.5 -1.4
Nov01 110.6 2.5 108.7 1.4

Germany Data: SA Retail Sales Indexes, M/M Pct Chg History
Release for: November 2002
Release date: January 7, 2003
Real data are adjusted for price changes (1995=100)
Month-on- month data adjusted for seasonal
and calendar changes
|----Nominal-----| |------Real------|
Index M/M Index M/M
1995=100 Level % Chng Level % Chng
Nov02 96.3 -3.3 94.7 -3.2
Oct02 99.6 -0.5 97.8 -0.7
Sep02 100.1 -0.1 98.4 -0.1
Aug02 100.2 0.2 98.5 0.1
Jul02 100.1 1.0 98.4 1.0
Jun02 99.1 -1.2 97.5 -1.0
May02 100.3 0.9 98.5 1.5
Apr02 99.4 -2.4 97.0 -2.4
Mar02 101.8 1.2 99.4 1.1
Feb02 100.6 0.3 98.3 0.2
Jan02 100.3 -1.5 98.1 -1.6
Dec01 101.9 -1.6 99.7 -1.8
Nov01 103.5 2.3 101.5 2.3

=> Es sind Zahlen aus dem November. Es ist traurig aber wahr. Viel anderen konnte man allerdings bei den anderen schlechten November Zahlen aus Deutschland auch nicht erwarten. Obwohl man hier keine hohen Erwartungen hatte, sind das dennoch schlechte News, aber mit leichter Gewichtung, da es sich um halbwegs alte Zahlen handelt.

=> Leider jedoch nicht von den Zahlen für Deutschland. :cry:

Daher speziell für Deutschland und seine Deflationsrisiken, die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und die abnehmende Gefahr, das hier der Export Einbrüche erleiden kann ein:

EMU Data: Industrial PPI Summary

Release for: November 2002
Release date: January 7, 2003
Percent changes, ex construction
m/m y/y
Nov02 -0.3 1.1
Oct02 0.2 0.9
Sep02 0.3 0.1
Aug02 0.1 -0.1
Jul02 0.1 -0.3
Jun02 -0.1 -0.9
-------------------------------
Source: Eurostat

EU/EMU Data: Confidence And Economic Sent. Index By Nation

Release for: December 2002
Release date: January 7, 2003
Results are differences between percentages of respondents
giving positive and negative replies
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
EU-15:
Industrial Confidence -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -11 -10 -10
Consumer Confidence -7 -7 -8 -9 -7 -10 -11 -14
Construction Confidence -16 -17 -19 -23 -21 -21 -23 -21
Retail Sentiment -12 -13 -13 -12 -13 -11 -10 -13
Economic Sentiment 99.8 99.6 99.4 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.0 98.8
Services Sentiment 6 3 0 -1 1 -3 -4 -7
EMU
Industrial Confidence -10 -11 -11 -12 -12 -11 -11 -9
Consumer Confidence -8 -8 -10 -11 -9 -12 -14 -16
Construction Confidence -17 -18 -21 -25 -23 -23 -25 -23
Retail Sentiment -18 -18 -17 -16 -17 -16 -14 -16
Economic Sentiment 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 99.0 98.8 98.4 98.5
Services Sentiment 6 3 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -5
BELGIUM:
Industrial Confidence -8 -8 -11 -11 -10 -12 -10 -13
Consumer Confidence -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -7
Construction Confidence -19 -22 -23 -24 -23 -21 -17 -18
Retail Sentiment -1 -4 2 1 1 -1 8 -2
Economic Sentiment 101.2 101.0 100.8 100.7 100.8 100.6 101.3 100.5
Services Sentiment 5 -3 -4 -4 -4 4 0 -5
DENMARK:
Industrial Confidence -3 -4 -5 -7 -8 -6 -4 -2
Consumer Confidence 8 9 8 7 8 11 10 5
Construction Confidence -15 -15 -15 -18 -18 -17 -19 -20
Retail Sentiment 18 17 16 15 12 22 15 11
Economic Sentiment 98.1 98 97.8 97.5 97.3 97.8 97.8 97.7
Services Sentiment 25 22 24 24 21 17 15 14
GERMANY:*
Industrial Confidence -18 -19 -17 -19 -21 -19 -19 -17
Consumer Confidence -11 -8 -8 -10 -5 -11 -17 -20
Construction Confidence -50 -51 -54 -53 -57 -58 -62 -59
Retail Sentiment -40 -37 -36 -38 -43 -40 -39 -40
Economic Sentiment 97.2 97.2 97.4 97.1 96.8 96.7 96.1 96.4
Services Sentiment -8 -13 -14 -14 -10 -19 -21 -23
GREECE:
Industrial Confidence 4 6 5 3 1 3 5 1
Consumer Confidence -26 -28 -27 -25 -30 -30 -30 -32
Construction Confidence 4 4 9 9 10 10 16 14
Retail Sentiment 6 8 3 2 1 5 4 3
Economic Sentiment 102.1 102.2 102.1 102.0 101.6 101.9 102.2 101.7
Services Sentiment 3 1 -5 -7 -7 -1 -1 0
SPAIN:
Industrial Confidence -8 -4 -4 -2 -5 -5 -3 0
Consumer Confidence -10 -12 -12 -13 -11 -12 -12 -16
Construction Confidence 11 15 17 -19 8 8 3 5
Retail Sentiment -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -3
Economic Sentiment 100.3 100.6 100.6 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.6 100.5
Services Sentiment 27 28 21 15 19 22 18 19
FRANCE:
Industrial Confidence -4 -8 -12 -13 -11 -9 -11 -6
Consumer Confidence -11 -12 -15 -15 -16 -17 -18 -17
Construction Confidence 3 2 -5 -4 -5 -8 -10 -7
Retail Sentiment -17 -18 -18 -16 -13 -17 -14 -16
Economic Sentiment 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.1 101.2 101.0 100.7 101.3
Services Sentiment 3 4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1
IRELAND:
Industrial Confidence -7 -13 -13 -7 1 -2 -4 -7
Consumer Confidence -2 -3 -8 -10 -8 -9 -13 -17
Construction Confidence -5 -43 -19 -52 -54 -14 -20 -21
Retail Sentiment -1 -8 -15 -8 -2 -9 -10 -14
Economic Sentiment 99.5 98.5 98.5 98.4 98.8 99.2 98.8 98.4
Services Sentiment 13 10 -4 -1 -1 6 -3 -10
ITALY:
Industrial Confidence -1 -4 -3 -5 -1 -2 -1 -2
Consumer Confidence -6 -8 -11 -10 -10 -13 -12 -17
Construction Confidence 11 5 4 3 8 5 8 9
Retail Sentiment -3 -5 0 5 8 14 17 16
Economic Sentiment 99.9 99.2 99.3 99.2 99.8 99.5 99.7 99.3
Services Sentiment 23 15 11 4 7 -5 3 -1
NETHERLANDS:
Industrial Confidence -5 -5 -6 -2 -4 -6 -4 -4
Consumer Confidence 5 -2 -5 -5 -8 -8 -6 -8
Construction Confidence -2 -5 -11 -11 -12 -12 -17 -14
Retail Sentiment 16 13 10 6 8 4 5 2
Economic Sentiment 99.9 99.3 98.4 98.7 98.4 97.7 98.1 97.8
Services Sentiment 16 16 19 20 20 16 13 14
AUSTRIA:
Industrial Confidence -16 -14 -16 -18 -18 -12 -16 -15
Consumer Confidence 4 4 2 -1 6 5 7 7
Construction Confidence -38 -40 -33 -37 -38 -36 -38 -38
Retail Sentiment -20 -18 -20 -19 -20 -18 -15 -25
Economic Sentiment 98.1 98.2 98.0 97.8 98.0 98.4 98.2 98.2
Services Sentiment 12 13 7 7 4 8 9 8
PORTUGAL:
Industrial Confidence -11 -9 -13 -12 -13 -14 -17 -16
Consumer Confidence -33 -37 -36 -36 -37 -42 -40 -41
Construction Confidence -27 -37 -37 -44 -43 -45 -49 -50
Retail Sentiment -14 -17 -18 -23 -17 -21 -23 -19
Economic Sentiment 98.8 98.5 98.2 97.9 97.9 97.4 97.1 97.2
Services Sentiment 6 7 8 -1 3 2 -8 -4
FINLAND:
Industrial Confidence -11 -9 -7 -6 0 -5 0 -8
Consumer Confidence 15 14 14 13 15 12 13 11
Construction Confidence -10 13 -11 2 -6 1 13 11
Retail Sentiment 2 -1 -11 -7 -14 -8 -3 -11
Economic Sentiment 99.6 99.9 99.5 99.6 99.8 99.6 100.2 99.7
Services Sentiment 24 15 3 18 10 21 25 22
SWEDEN:
Industrial Confidence -13 -4 -12 -14 -11 -16 -14 -11
Consumer Confidence 8 11 11 11 13 8 10 10
Construction Confidence -25 -40 -47 -40 -51 -53 -39 -45
Retail Sentiment 13 14 15 15 12 13 19 16
Economic Sentiment 99.2 99.5 99.0 98.9 98.9 98.6 99.0 99.0
Services Sentiment -6 -6 -11 -9 -10 -19 -17 -16
UNITED KINGDOM:
Industrial Confidence -17 -13 -11 -8 -15 -13 -9 -15
Consumer Confidence -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 -1 -6
Construction Confidence -8 -3 -5 -7 -5 -1 -3 -2
Retail Sentiment 8 5 -1 0 -3 3 2 -7
Economic Sentiment 100.5 100.7 100.7 100.9 100.5 100.9 101.0 100.4
Services Sentiment 11 6 3 0 -4 -8 -14 -20

EU/EMU Data: SA Monthly Survey Construction Industry Sentiment

Release for: December 2002
Release date: January 7, 2003
Results are differences between percentages of respondents
giving positive and negative replies.
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE INDICATOR:
European Union....... -16 -17 -19 -23 -21 -21 -23 -21
EMU -17 -18 -21 -25 -23 -23 -25 -23
Belgium.............. -19 -22 -23 -24 -23 -21 -17 -18
Denmark.............. -15 -15 -15 -18 -18 -17 -19 -20
Germany.............. -50 -51 -54 -53 -57 -58 -62 -59
Greece............... 4 4 9 9 10 10 16 14
Spain................ 11 15 17 -19 8 8 3 5
France............... 3 2 -5 -4 -5 -8 -10 -7
Ireland.............. -5 -43 -19 -52 -54 -14 -20 -21
Italy................ 11 5 4 3 8 5 8 9
Luxembourg........... -19 -19 -30 -34 -29 -37 -45 -56
Netherlands.......... -2 -5 -11 -11 -12 -12 -17 -14
Austria.............. -38 -40 -33 -37 -38 -36 -38 -38
Portugal............. -27 -37 -37 -44 -43 -45 -49 -50
Finland.............. -10 13 -11 2 -6 1 13 11
Sweden............... -25 -40 -47 -40 -51 -53 -39 -45
United Kingdom....... -8 -3 -5 -7 -5 -1 -3 -2
ORDER BOOKS:
European Union....... -23 -24 -30 -32 -29 -30 -30 -29
EMU -24 -25 -31 -34 -30 -32 -32 -30
Belgium.............. -28 -30 -32 -34 -32 -29 -25 -27
Denmark.............. -19 -21 -22 -23 -22 -22 -24 -22
Germany.............. -59 -63 -67 -64 -69 -71 -71 -70
Greece............... -13 -13 -13 -14 -20 -21 -5 -18
Spain................ 16 19 7 -15 17 15 12 13
France............... 3 1 -7 -7 -8 -14 -13 -8
Ireland.............. -38 -50 -25 -57 -58 -26 -20 -24
Italy................ -6 -5 -16 -17 -8 -10 -10 -11
Luxembourg........... -18 -21 -33 -38 -34 -45 -47 -58
Netherlands.......... -6 -7 -11 -12 -13 -14 -20 -15
Austria.............. -52 -49 -48 -54 -52 -50 -50 -48
Portugal............. -37 -49 -50 -57 -52 -56 -57 -55
Finland.............. -19 4 -6 -4 -7 8 9 13
Sweden............... -34 -41 -57 -45 -56 -56 -51 -57
United Kingdom....... -18 -12 -19 -19 -16 -11 -17 -15
EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS:
European Union....... -8 -9 -8 -14 -13 -12 -15 -12
EMU -9 -11 -10 -16 -15 -14 -18 -15
Belgium.............. -9 -14 -14 -13 -14 -12 -9 -9
Denmark.............. -10 -8 -8 -12 -13 -12 -13 -17
Germany.............. -40 -38 -41 -41 -45 -45 -53 -47
Greece............... 20 21 30 31 39 40 36 45
Spain................ 6 10 26 -23 -2 1 -7 -4
France............... 3 3 -2 0 -1 -2 -7 -5
Ireland.............. 28 -35 -12 -47 -50 -1 -20 -18
Italy................ 28 15 24 22 23 19 25 28
Luxembourg........... -20 -16 -27 -29 -24 -28 -42 -54
Netherlands.......... 3 -2 -10 -10 -10 -10 -13 -13
Austria.............. -23 -31 -18 -20 -23 -21 -25 -27
Portugal............. -16 -24 -24 -31 -34 -34 -40 -44
Finland.............. -1 22 -16 7 -4 -6 17 8
Sweden............... -15 -39 -37 -35 -45 -49 -27 -32
United Kingdom....... 3 6 10 6 6 10 11 12
TREND OF ACTIVITY
European Union....... -9 -14 -11 -13 -8 -11 -14 -12
EMU -11 -15 -12 -14 -9 -13 -16 -14
Belgium.............. -4 -16 -14 -8 -2 -3 -7 -4
Denmark.............. -8 -9 -12 -9 -10 -10 -15 -7
Germany.............. -31 -36 -37 -34 -27 -35 -44 -37
Greece............... 13 1 0 10 19 19 15 13
Spain................ 2 -3 22 -11 5 11 13 0
France............... -6 -9 -14 -16 -19 -23 -27 -20
Ireland.............. -8 -10 -32 -10 9 -14 -33 -35
Italy................ 14 11 10 17 19 20 18 20
Luxembourg........... -32 -23 -33 -54 23 -68 -55 -36
Netherlands.......... -15 -7 -10 -8 -7 -18 -12 -7
Austria.............. -6 -18 -1 -10 -7 -6 -5 -3
Portugal............. -16 -14 -22 -19 -15 -30 -27 -31
Finland.............. 28 29 26 28 15 29 44 33
Sweden............... -15 -25 -24 -22 -40 -37 -15 -14
United Kingdom....... 5 -5 1 -3 5 6 4 0
PRICE EXPECTATIONS:
European Union....... 4 0 -1 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5
EMU 2 -2 -3 -10 -8 -9 -9 -8
Belgium.............. -8 -9 -10 -13 -11 -14 -10 -15
Denmark.............. -20 -20 -23 -26 -25 -26 -27 -30
Germany.............. -13 -15 -17 -22 -23 -24 -27 -24
Greece............... 21 12 6 6 6 15 17 25
Spain................ 33 21 10 -12 4 -3 6 2
France............... -12 -13 -9 -15 -19 -19 -17 -15
Ireland.............. -48 -49 -27 -62 -63 -42 -30 -46
Italy................ 26 22 23 20 24 24 21 25
Luxembourg........... -37 -33 -42 -55 -60 -58 -54 -63
Netherlands.......... 28 24 22 20 18 10 5 6
Austria.............. -15 -18 -12 -13 -13 -7 -4 -17
Portugal............. -2 -7 -18 -19 -22 -15 -18 -19
Finland.............. -11 -7 1 0 -2 8 -3 5
Sweden............... -24 -20 -10 -14 -25 -16 -11 -24
United Kingdom....... 25 23 22 21 23 30 23 24

Zwei drei Tabellen fehlen hier vielleicht, aber das spielt keine Rolle, da die Zahlen eh viel zu alt sind.

Nun wieder brandaktuellen Zahlen:

US BTM-UBSW WKLY CHAIN STORE INDEX -0.2% W/W WK ENDED JAN04
US BTM-UBSW WKLY CHAIN STORE INDEX +3.3% Y/Y WK ENDED JAN04

US Data: BTM-UBSW Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales Index
Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsuishi, Ltd.
Index base 1977=100, seasonally adjusted

Week %chg %chg
Ending Index yr/yr wk/wk
--------------------------------------------
04-Jan-03 408.0 3.3 -0.2
28-Dec-02 409.0 2.9 2.1
21-Dec-02 400.4 1.7 0.1
14-Dec-02 400.1 4.5 1.9
07-Dec-02 392.8 2.0 -2.3
30-Nov-02 402.0 4.0 0.3
23-Nov-02 400.8 2.0 0.9
16-Nov-02 397.1 2.0 -1.2
09-Nov-02 402.0 2.7 0.5
02-Nov-02 399.9 2.8 1.1
26-Oct-02 395.5 2.6 -1.9
19-Oct-02 403.3 2.9 0.6
12-Oct-02 400.7 2.7 -0.9
05-Oct-02 404.4 3.7 0.8
28-Sep-02 401.0 2.0 -0.8
21-Sep-02 404.2 2.7 -1.7
14-Sep-02 411.2 3.7 0.0
07-Sep-02 411.2 2.3 0.1
31-Aug-02 410.7 2.1 0.5
24-Aug-02 408.7 1.4 -0.3
17-Aug-02 410.0 1.8 -0.8
10-Aug-02 413.1 3.2 -0.5
03-Aug-02 415.1 3.8 0.1
27-Jul-02 414.5 3.8 -0.4
20-Jul-02 416.1 4.5 0.4
13-Jul-02 414.4 3.5 -0.3
06-Jul-02 415.6 3.7 0.7
29-Jun-02 412.9 3.6 -0.9
22-Jun-02 416.7 4.9 0.5
15-Jun-02 414.6 4.3 0.7
08-Jun-02 411.6 4.6 1.6
01-Jun-02 405.0 3.2 0.1
25-May-02 404.6 3.4 -0.2
18-May-02 405.6 3.6 0.0
11-May-02 405.8 4.2 -0.5
04-May-02 407.7 6.0 2.1
27-Apr-02 399.3 3.3 -1.7
20-Apr-02 406.3 6.0 1.4
13-Apr-02 400.8 5.0 -0.7
06-Apr-02 403.7 6.2 0.3
30-Mar-02 402.5 6.0 -0.6
23-Mar-02 405.1 4.9 -0.6
16-Mar-02 407.5 5.1 0.1
09-Mar-02 407.1 4.7 -0.7
02-Mar-02 409.8 4.7 -0.8
23-Feb-02 413.1 5.1 -0.4
16-Feb-02 414.7 5.2 2.0
09-Feb-02 406.6 4.1 2.1
02-Feb-02 398.2 2.8 -0.7
26-Jan-02 401.0 3.4 0.2
19-Jan-02 400.0 3.8 0.7
12-Jan-02 397.4 2.3 0.6
05-Jan-02 395.0 1.4 -0.6
29-Dec-01 397.5 2.6 0.9
22-Dec-01 393.9 2.0 2.9
15-Dec-01 382.9 3.0 -0.5
08-Dec-01 385.0 3.0 -0.4

Auch wenn diese Prozentzahl ein Minus beinhaltete, so bin ich sehr zufrieden mit ihr! Immerhin noch ein Index von 408.0.

compared to the previous week and ended the month below plan," Instinet
Research said.

The week was characterized by lower volumes and the beginning of
clearance sales ahead of year-end stock taking and book-closings, the
report said.

Retailers also said the week was "more promotional than planned,"
Instinet Research said.

January is a four-week month on the retail calendar and closes the
fiscal year for most retailers.

The preliminary Redbook target for January is a year-over-year
store gain of 1.6% or a 0.4% monthly gain over December, Instinet
Research said." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +0.5% VS NOV THROUGH JAN 4 WEEK
US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +0.2% IN WK ENDED JAN 4 VS YR AGO WK
US REDBOOK: SALES ENDED DECEMBER `BELOW PLAN`
US REDBOOK: DECEMBER 2002 STORE SALES +1.0% VS DECEMBER 2001

US Redbook: Dec Store Sales +0.5% vs Nov Through Jan 4 Week

--Store Sales +0.2% in Week-Ended Jan. 4 vs Year-Ago Week
--December Store Sales +1.0% vs December 2001

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The Redbook Average for U.S. same-store
sales in December was up 0.5% compared to November through the week
ended Jan. 4, as sales ended the month below plan in a week of clearance
sales and book closings, Instinet Research said Tuesday.

The increase compares to a target of 1.6%. Sales in the latest week
rose 0.2% compared to the same week of 2001, while December sales were
up 1.0% compared to December 2001, well below the 2.1% target. December
was a five-week month on the fiscal calendar, ending Jan. 4.

"Sales performance pulled back in the final week of December
compared to the previous week and ended the month below plan," Instinet
Research said.

The week was characterized by lower volumes and the beginning of
clearance sales ahead of year-end stock taking and book-closings, the
report said.

Retailers also said the week was "more promotional than planned,"
Instinet Research said.

January is a four-week month on the retail calendar and closes the
fiscal year for most retailers.

The preliminary Redbook target for January is a year-over-year
store gain of 1.6% or a 0.4% monthly gain over December, Instinet
Research said.

Die mögen alle etwas mehr erwartet haben, aus meiner Sicht sind das gute Zahlen gewesen. Mehr als ich in der derzeitigen Situation erwartet hätte.

US NOV NONDEF CAP GOODS EX AIRCRAFT SHIPMENTS -1.1%(OCT +1.4%)
US NOV MFG INVENT -0.3%; SHIPMENTS -0.8%; UNFILLED ORDRS -0.9%
COMMERCE: US NOV NONDURABLES FALL LED BY PETRO, COAL PRODUCTS
US NOV DURABLES ORDERS REV TO -1.5% (PRV -1.4%), NONDUR -0.1%
US NOV FACTORY ORDERS -0.8%; EX-DEFENSE -1.3%; I/S 1.32
U.S. NOV FACTORY ORDERS -0.8 PCT VS OCT +1.4 PCT (PREV +1.5)
US NOV FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANS -0.7%; TRANSPORTATION -1.9%
US NOV DEFENSE CAP GDS NEW ORDERS +27.8%; DEF. AIRCRAFT +8.5%
US NOV NONDEFENSE AIRCRAFT AND PARTS NEW ORDERS -7.8%
US OCT FACTORY ORDERS REVISED TO +1.4% (PREV +1.5%)
US NOV CIV AIRCRAFT CAPITAL GDS ORDERS -35.6% (MKT NEWS CALC)

US Data: Factory Orders Summary

Release for: November 2002 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Mlns of U.S. dollars, seas. adj. % change
Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02
------------------------------------------------------------------------
New orders, total 319269 321993 317660 -0.8 1.4 -2.4
Durable goods orders 169336 171895 169060 -1.5 1.7 -4.6
Nondurable goods orders 149933 150098 148600 -0.1 1.0 0.3

New orders, ex. defense 312361 316465 308822 -1.3 2.5 -2.6
Nondefense capital goods 53217 55213 52901 -3.6 4.4 -10.7
Excluding aircraft 52125 53517 50752 -2.6 5.4 -4.3
Defense 5448 4263 7551 27.8 -43.5 7.2

Inventories, total 427792 429074 429385 -0.3 -0.1 0.2
Shipments, total 323730 326339 322608 -0.8 1.2 -0.3
Unfilled orders, total 476944 481405 485751 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0

Inventory/Shipment Ratio 1.32 1.31 1.33 --- --- ---

US Data: Value of Factory New Orders For Industry Groups

Release for: November 2002
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Data in millions of U.S. dollars, seasonally adjusted

Levels: Pct chg:
Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All industries 319269 321993 317660 -0.8 1.4 -2.4
Ex. transportation 270027 271817 268355 -0.7 1.3 0.2
Ex. defense 312361 316465 308822 -1.3 2.5 -2.6
With unfilled orders 117144 118360 117286 -1.0 0.9 -5.3

Durable goods industries 169336 171895 169060 -1.5 1.7 -4.6

Primary metals 10692 11210 11343 -4.6 -1.2 -0.6
Iron and steel mills 4929 5206 5417 -5.3 -3.9 -1.3
Aluminum,nonferrous metals. 4473 4680 4593 -4.4 1.9 -0.4
Ferrous metal foundries 1290 1324 1333 -2.6 -0.7 1.8
Fabricated metal products 20867 21449 21086 -2.7 1.7 1.4
Machinery 21823 22519 21988 -3.1 2.4 -0.1
Construction machinery 1653 1784 1557 -7.3 14.6 -7.0
Mining, oil field, and
gas field machinery 684 713 738 -4.1 -3.4 -4.4
Industrial machinery 3047 3273 2950 -6.9 10.9 -0.2
Photographic equipment 1457 1491 1468 -2.3 1.6 -1.1
Ventilation, heat, air-conditioning,
and refrigeration equipment 2498 2602 2428 -4.0 7.2 -4.3
Metalworking machinery 2331 2208 2102 5.6 5.0 -0.0
Turbines, generators, and
power transmission equipt. 1841 2043 2130 -9.9 -4.1 -9.5
Material handling equipment 1356 1352 1530 0.3 -11.6 8.2
Computers and elect. products 25581 25521 24856 0.2 2.7 -1.7
Electronic computers 4118 4413 4832 -6.7 -8.7 20.0
Nondefense communications
equipment 5085 4875 2792 4.3 74.6 -42.3
Defense communications 258 427 343 -39.6 24.5 43.5
Semiconductors NA NA NA NA NA NA
Electronic components 3899 4177 2918 -6.7 43.1 -21.7
Nondefense search and navigation
equipment 722 920 715 -21.5 28.7 0.7
Defense search and navigation
equipment 1888 746 3446 153.1 -78.4 111.5
Electromedical, measuring,
and control instuments 5434 5908 5931 -8.0 -0.4 -1.3
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components 8890 8957 9122 -0.7 -1.8 2.5
Electric lighting equipment 1067 1073 1279 -0.6 -16.1 19.6
Household appliances 1960 2134 2055 -8.2 3.8 5.9
Electrical equipment 2578 2466 2534 4.5 -2.7 -0.1
Transportation equipment 49242 50176 49305 -1.9 1.8 -14.3
Motor vehicle bodies, parts,
and trailers 18676 18848 18405 -0.9 2.4 0.8
Nondefense aircraft and part 4280 4641 4721 -7.8 -1.7 -47.6
Defense aircraft and parts 2847 2625 2855 8.5 -8.1 -8.1
Ships and boats 1762 1805 2140 -2.4 -15.7 8.9
Furniture and related product 5506 5498 5419 0.1 1.5 -0.0

Nondurable goods industries 149933 150098 148600 -0.1 1.0 0.3

TOPICAL SERIES

All manufacturing industries 319269 321993 317660 -0.8 1.4 -2.4

Construction Materials 36097 36442 36341 -0.9 0.3 0.5
Information technology 25926 25635 26182 1.1 -2.1 0.9
Computer and related product 6900 7138 7384 -3.3 -3.3 9.2
Motor vehicle and parts 37135 39060 37717 -4.9 3.6 -1.9

Capital goods 58665 59476 60452 -1.4 -1.6 -8.8
Nondefense Capital Goods 53217 55213 52901 -3.6 4.4 -10.7
Excluding Aircraft 52125 53517 50752 -2.6 5.4 -4.3
Defense Capital Goods 5448 4263 7551 27.8 -43.5 7.2

Consumer Goods 124247 126030 124025 -1.4 1.6 0.4
Consumer Durable Goods 33134 34510 33409 -4.0 3.3 -0.7
Consumer Nondurable Goods 91113 91520 90616 -0.4 1.0 0.8

Calculated by Market News:
Durables Ex. Trans 120094 121719 119755 -1.3 1.6 -0.0
Durables Ex. Defense cap. gds 163888 167632 161509 -2.2 3.8 -5.1
Civilian Aircraft cap. goods 1092 1696 2149 -35.6 -21.1 -65.2

==> Die Richtung aus dem November ist klar zu sehen. Verteidigung und Rüstungsindustire läuft bestens, das andere nicht gut, oder besser grottenschlecht. Es handelt sich allerdings um November Zahlen. Sie kamen noch etwas schlechter als erwartet, aber nicht viel schlimmer. Leider ist aus diesen Zahlen nicht besonders viel positives für die Zukunft abzuleiten, daher:

==> Zusammenfassend alle November Zahlen waren heute mies, die aktuellen Zahlen waren deutlich besser.

schrieb am 07.01.03 20:42:36

Beitrag Nr. 104 ()

Nachdem Hewlett Packard hochgestuft wurde diese Woche, dann Applied Materials und Novellus folgten, stufte Prudential nun Xilinx und Altera hoch. Auf dem asiatischen Markt immer noch anhaltend steigende Dram Preise... :confused:

Nasdaq performt gut, die Techs Infineon und Siemens im Dax hingegen nicht. Einzig und allein der Techvorläufer SAP ist im Plus. Hier könnte sich langsam eine Spannung aufbauen. (Das war ein vorsichtiges könnte.

)

Das Öl kommt wieder etwas runter, was für die gesamte Lage wieder etwas konjunkturfördernder ist.

Ansonsten beherrscht das rückwirkende Steuersenkungsprogram von Bush sicherlich die Konjunktur. Das wäre so schön, wenn Deutschland mit dem Wirtschaftsdämpfen auch mal aufhören würde...

schrieb am 07.01.03 20:51:41

Beitrag Nr. 105 ()

GERMANY DIW CUTS 2003 GERMAN GDP FORECAST TO +0.6% FROM +0.9…

Diese BIP Voraussagen will ich selbstverständlich auch nicht vorenthalten. Es hat eh Keiner geglaubt, das Deutschland die Prognose mit Rot/Grün erfüllen kann. Die 2004 Voraussage kann einem richitg die Hosen voll machen. Wenn es danach ginge müßte der Dax heute bei 1000 gelandet sein.

Die Jungs da haben aber offensichtlich keinen richigen Plan, wie es mir ausschaut. Sie nennen für Deutschland das Risiko einer Deflation, das ist nur wirklich Murks. Kurzfristig dem technischen Terminus nach haben sie vielleicht sogar Recht. Aber ich würde das eher Corrigflation nennen. Was jetzt wieder billiger wird, das ist auf überzogene Preiserhöhungen in den letzten Monaten zurückzuführen. Somit aus meiner Sicht auch eine gesunde Bewegung und nicht etwas wovor man Angst haben sollte, wie bei einer wirtschaftsfreindlichen Deflation. Die Daten bekommen dennoch ein:

=> Sie sind alles andere als schön.

schrieb am 07.01.03 21:04:46

Beitrag Nr. 106 ()

EX MATURED NOTES DEC. US TSY STRIPS UP $1.090 BLN
US TSY: DEC. STRIPPED SECURITIES HOLDINGS UP $676.6 MLN

US TSY: December Stripped Securities Holdings Up $676.6 Mln

--Excluding Maturing Notes STRIP Holdings Up $1.090 Bln

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - U.S. Treasury securities outstanding which
were held in stripped form rose by $676.6 million in December from
November, the Treasury reported Tuesday.

Excluding a 5-5/8% 5-year note and a 5-1/8% 2-year note, which both
matured on December 31, strips holdings in December would have been up
$1.090 billion from November.

Outstanding securities held in stripped form totaled $169.278
billion at the end of December, down from $168.602 billion at the end of
November, the Treasury said.

However, the November data included $413.4 million of stripped
holdings of the matured 5-year note. Excluding this issue, the November
total would have been $168.188 billion.

Unstripped securities outstanding totaled $2.059 trillion in
December, compared with $2.020 trillion in November. Excluding the
expired notes, the unstripped figure for November would have been $1.993
trillion.

The Treasury also reported $11.549 billion of stripped securities
were reconstituted to their unstripped form in December. This total does
not include the matured bills.

US Data: Treasury Securities Stripping Activity - Summary

Figures for end of: December 2002
Data in thousands of dollars, parenthesis indicate net reconstitution
Source: U.S. Treasury Dept.; calculations by Market News International

Current Previous Net
month`s month`s amount
stripped stripped stripped

Grand Total 169,278,418 168,601,842 676,576
excl. maturing issues 169,278,418 168,188,402 1,090,016

Bonds 147,329,041 146,658,044 670,997
maturing issue
none 0 0 --
excl. maturing issue 147,329,041 146,658,044 670,997

Notes 21,693,709 21,688,553 5,156
maturing issue
2-yr note, Dec-31-02 0 0 --
5-yr note, Dec-31-02 0 413,440 --
excl. maturing issue 21,693,709 21,275,113 418,596

Indexed Notes 112,216 112,030 186
Indexed Bonds 143,452 143,215 237

[/url]

schrieb am 07.01.03 21:14:28

Beitrag Nr. 107 ()

schrieb am 08.01.03 18:22:48

Beitrag Nr. 108 ()

Schön tiefe Ölpreise die leider keiner zu würdigen weiß.

schrieb am 09.01.03 19:23:14

Beitrag Nr. 109 ()

schrieb am 09.01.03 19:58:29

Beitrag Nr. 110 ()

Indikatoren von Heute:

GERMANY DEC. SA UNEMPLOYMENT +28,000 M/M: LABOUR OFFICE
WEST…

=> Hier hatte man einen Anstieg von 30000 erwartet ==> Gute Zahlen. =>

US NOV WHLESLE INVENTORIES +0.2%;OCT REV TO -0.5%(PRV -0.3%)
US NOV WHOLESALE SLS +1.2%, DURABLES +0.7%, NONDURABLE +1.6%
US NOV WHOLESALE INV/SALES RATIO RECORD LOW 1.21 VS OCT 1.22
US NOV WHOLESALE DURABLES INVENTORIES +0.3%; NONDURABLES +0.1%
US NOV WHLESLE AUTO INV +2.3%;SALES +3.4%;I/S 1.40 V OCT 1.42
US NOV WHLESLE PETRO INV +0.4%;SALES-1.0%;I/S 0.27 V OCT 0.26

US Data: Wholesale Trade Summary

Release for: November 2002
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Seasonally adj., millions of U.S. dollars yr-ago mo/mo mo/mo yr/yr
Nov-02 Oct-02 Sep-02 Nov-01 Nov-02 Oct-02 Nov-02
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inventories, total 284491 283971 285386 289458 0.2 -0.5 -1.7
Durables 169819 169368 169619 175818 0.3 -0.1 -3.4
Nondurables 114672 114603 115767 113640 0.1 -1.0 0.9

Sales, total 235672 232891 232798 221978 1.2 0.0 6.2
Durables 114144 113332 114429 111941 0.7 -1.0 2.0
Nondurables 121528 119559 118369 110037 1.6 1.0 10.4

Stock/sales, total 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.30 -- -- --
Durables 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.57 -- -- --
Nondurables 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.03 -- -- --

==> Diese Zahlen waren über den Erwartungen oder etwas besser. Aber dafür mag ich nicht unbedingt ein Daumen nach oben vergeben. Im Gegenteil die Inventory Sales Ratio war ziemlich mies. Daher kein up und kein Down für diese Nachricht.

schrieb am 09.01.03 22:31:21

Beitrag Nr. 111 ()

****************************************************
****************Freitag 10.01.03*******************
****************************************************

06:00 Japan Frühindikatoren (vorl.)
08:00 Deutschland Außenhandel November 2002: zR +11,1 Mrd. EUR R +9,7 Mrd. EUR
08:00 Deutschland Leistungsbilanz November 2002: zR -24,8 Mrd. EUR
08:00 Deutschland Rohstahlproduktion Dezember 2002
08:00 Deutschland Insolvenzen September 2002
08:45 Frankreich BIP Q3 2002 (endg.), vorläufige Zahlen waren (q/q;y/y) +0.2%;+0.8%
10:30 Großbritannien Außenhandel
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Monat zu Monat => zR +1,1% R -0,6%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Jahr zu Jahr => zR +4,4% R +3,3%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Inland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe : Monat zu Monat => zR +1,5%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Inland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Jahr zu Jahr => zR +1,5%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Ausland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Monat zu Monat => zR +0,6%
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang aus dem Ausland Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: Jahr zu Jahr => zR +8,2%
14:30 USA Stundenlöhne (durchschnittlich): Monat zu Monat=> zR +0,3% C +0,3% R +0,3% A +0,3% sR +0,2% bis +0,3%
14:30 USA Stundenlöhne (durchschnittlich): Jahr zu Jahr => zR +2,9%
14:30 USA Durchschnittliche Arbeitswoche: zR 34,2h C 34,2h R 34,2h A 34,2h sR 34,2h bis 34,4h
14:30 USA Beschäftigte ausserhalb der Landwirtschaft: zR -40k C +21k R +25k A +10k sR -10k bis +100k
14:30 USA Beschäftigte im verarbeitenden Gewerbe: zR -45k R -20k
14:30 USA Arbeitslosenzahlen: zR 6,0% C 6,0% R 6,0% A 6,0% sR 5,8% bis 6,1%
16:30 USA ECRI Leading Index 03-Jan: zR 117.6

Legende:
z => die letzten Zahlen die ich dort habe `z` wie zuvor
s => Spannweite einer Umfrage
C => Erwartung Consensus
R => Erwartungen Reuters Median
F => Erwartungen Forbes
A => Erwartung andere Quellen
SA => an die Periode angepaßte Zahlen

Zusammensetzungen:
zR => letzte Zahl diesbezüglich von Reuters
zR => letzte Zahl diesbezüglich aus anderen Quellen
sR => Spannweite der Umfragen von Reuters

schrieb am 09.01.03 22:40:21

Beitrag Nr. 112 ()

Wichtig sind aus meiner Sicht vor allem die Frühindikatoren aus Japan und die Stahlproduktion. Dann noch der Leading Index. Die anderen Zahlen, wie Insolvenzen aus dem September (lange zurück) und die Arbeitsmarktdaten, werden zwar heiß gehandelt werden, sie sind auch meiner Sicht für den weiten Blick eher uninteressant. Bei den Auftragseingängen ist die Zahl weniger aus meiner Sicht Zweitrangig, als die Entwicklung der Binnennachfrage, die bei dem steigenden Euro immer wichtiger wird, ist hier das Augenmerk. Mit anderen Worten, Vorsicht bei der Interpretation der Zahlen! Ich denke, es wird viele Fehlinterpretationen und Lemminge für diese Interpretationen geben.

schrieb am 11.01.03 17:17:15

Beitrag Nr. 113 ()

Es kam so wie ich mir das gedacht hatte. Frühindikatoren etwas aufhellend, aber dafür die alten Zahlen grottenschlecht. Auch das mit der heftigen Reaktion der Leminge ist eingetroffen, so ist der Dax heftig gefallen um dann wieder stark zu steigen.

schrieb am 11.01.03 18:42:51

Beitrag Nr. 114 ()

Für die Frühindikatoren von Japan gibt es ebenfals ein

, auch wenn die schlecht waren, so waren sie besser als im letzten Monat.

German Dec steel output up 12.5 pct y/y
BERLIN, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The Federal Statistics Office on
Friday published the following preliminary data on German raw
steel and pig iron output in December:
(In millions of tonnes)
DEC 02 Pct change yr/yr
Crude steel 3.54 +12.5
Pig iron 2.49 +16.2

JAN-DEC 02 Pct change yr/yr
Crude steel 45.00 +0.4
Pig iron 29.42 +0.8

Germany Prel. Dec Raw Steel Output +12.5% Y/Y; 2002 +0.4%

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - German raw steel production totalled 3.54
million metric tons in December, down 1.6% on the month but up 12.5%
compared to the same month a year earlier, the Federal Statistical
Office reported Friday.

Raw iron output totaled 2.49 million metric tons in December, up
1.5% on the month and up 16.2% from the previous year.

In 2002, raw steel production rose 0.4% vs. 2001 to 45.0 million
tonnes, while iron output rose 0.8% to 29.42 million tonnes.

In west Germany, steel production was up 15.6% y/y to 3.05 million
tonnes in December. In full-year 2002, steel output rose 0.1% y/y to
38.6 million tonnes.

In east Germany, raw steel output fell 3.4% in December compared to
a year earlier to 0.49 million tonnes. In 2002 as a whole, steel output
rose 2.6% y/y to 6.4 million tonnes.

Germany Data: Raw Steel and Iron Output, Levels, Pct Chg
Release for: December 2002
Release Date: January 10, 2003
Figures are in million metric tons
----Aug--- ----Sep--- ----Oct--- ----Nov--- ----Dec---
Level Y/Y Level Y/Y Level Y/Y Level Y/Y Level Y/Y
% CHG % CHG % CHG % CHG % CHG
Pan-German
Iron Output 2.62 13.7 2.44 1.2 2.51 1.1 2.45 2.3 2.49 16.2
Steel Output 3.84 8.1 3.79 1.0 3.87 -0.7 3.78 1.7 3.54 12.5
West German
Steel Output 3.37 9.7 3.23 0.2 3.29 -2.0 3.21 -2.0 3.05 15.6
East German
Steel Output 0.48 -1.7 0.56 5.6 0.58 7.1 0.57 7.1 0.49 -3.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

==> Bei der steigenden Autoproduktion aus dem Dezember auch nicht verwunderlich, daß die Stahlproduktion im Dezember gestiegen ist. Nur etwas verwunderlich, daß die Autowerte nun so abgegeben haben. Da die Stahltproduktion doch erheblich gegenüber dem Vorjahr zugenommen hat.

Deutsche Insolvenzen im September 2002
Wiesbaden, 10. Jan (Reuters) - Die Zahl der Insolvenzen in
Deutschland im September 2002 ist am Freitag vom Statistischen
Bundesamt in Wiesbaden veröffentlicht worden. Ein sinnvoller
Vergleich mit den Vorjahreszahlen ist wegen der Reform des
Insolvenzrechts zum 1. Dezember 2001 nach wie vor nicht möglich.

SEP JAN-SEP
2002 2002
INSOLVENZEN in
Gesamtdeutschland 7297 62.256
- davon Unternehmen 3233 28.129
übrige Schuldner 4064 34.127
- davon Insolvenzen
von Verbrauchern 1952 15.213
- von natürlichen
Personen als Gesell-
schafter 346 5402
- ehemals selbst-
ständig Tätige 1571 11.755
- Nachlässe 195 1757

==> Wie im Text auch selbst schon steht ist aufgrund der Änderungen der Insolvenzkriterien ein Vergleich zum Vorjahr nicht möglich. Aus meiner Sicht schlechte Zahlen, aber es sind ja auch Septemberzahlen. Die Regierung hat wirklich nichts unversucht gelassen die Daten der aktuellen Lage zu verschleiern. Für diese Daten aufgrund des Alters der Zahlen ein mildes:

Dann sind da auch noch die Frühindikatoren der OECD aufgelistet. Hier schneidet Deutschland auch recht gut ab, auch Frankreich und die USA stehen gut da. Großbritannien steht mies da, wie wir am Freitag morgen schon gesehen haben. Überrascht hat mich bei diesen Zahlen eher Italien, und zwar im negativen Sinne. Daher für Deutschland, USA und Frankreich ein

und für Italien und Großbritannien ein

.

Das Pfund muß wohl auch noch ein wenig runter kommen.

schrieb am 11.01.03 19:19:16

Beitrag Nr. 115 ()

ECRI:US Leading Index Drops to 119.1 in 1/3 Wk; Growth -2.4%

US Data: ECRI Weekly Leading Index

Data through: Jan. 3, 2003
Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute

Date Level Growth
-----------------------------

03-Jan-03 119.1 -2.4
27-Dec-02 117.6 -2.8
20-Dec-02 118.8 -1.8
13-Dec-02 118.2 -1.8
06-Dec-02 118.1 -2.2
29-Nov-02 120.2 -2.7
22-Nov-02 118.7 -3.8
15-Nov-02 117.4 -4.6
08-Nov-02 116.7 -4.6
01-Nov-02 117.4 -5.3
25-Oct-02 116.5 -5.5
18-Oct-02 117.1 -5.4
11-Oct-02 114.9 -5.2
04-Oct-02 116.6 -3.9
27-Sep-02 116.6 -3.0
20-Sep-02 117.5 -1.9
13-Sep-02 117.9 -1.3
06-Sep-02 118.8 -0.7
30-Aug-02 119.2 -0.8
23-Aug-02 118.9 -0.5
16-Aug-02 119.3 -0.7
09-Aug-02 118.6 -0.5
02-Aug-02 119.9 0.5
26-Jul-02 118.4 1.5
19-Jul-02 119.9 3.2
12-Jul-02 121.0 4.7
05-Jul-02 122.3 5.1
28-Jun-02 122.5 5.0
21-Jun-02 123.1 5.6
14-Jun-02 121.9 5.0
07-Jun-02 121.9 4.9
31-May-02 123.9 4.8
24-May-02 121.6 4.2
17-May-02 121.5 4.4
10-May-02 121.5 4.6
03-May-02 122.4 4.4
26-Apr-02 122.0 4.0
19-Apr-02 121.7 3.8
12-Apr-02 120.9 4.1
05-Apr-02 121.2 4.6
29-Mar-02 121.1 4.7
22-Mar-02 122.1 4.7
15-Mar-02 121.7 3.8
08-Mar-02 121.2 2.7
01-Mar-02 121.0 2.0
22-Feb-02 119.7 2.0
15-Feb-02 119.2 2.1
08-Feb-02 119.4 2.9
01-Feb-02 120.9 3.5
25-Jan-02 120.0 3.8
18-Jan-02 121.3 3.3
11-Jan-02 120.9 3.1
04-Jan-02 121.7 2.3

==> Gegenüber dem Vorjahr vielleicht ein Rückgang des Leading Indexes, aber gegenüber den Vormonaten durchaus erfreulich. Daher bin ich hier positiv überrascht!!!

schrieb am 11.01.03 19:21:03

Beitrag Nr. 116 ()

Zusammenfassend hat mir der Freitag von den aktuellen Zahlen her besser gefallen, als die Reaktion des Dax, aber aus den USA gibt es derzeit ja auch noch ein paar positive Vorgaben.

schrieb am 11.01.03 20:06:54

Beitrag Nr. 117 ()

schrieb am 11.01.03 21:54:07

Beitrag Nr. 118 ()

schrieb am 12.01.03 00:46:11

Beitrag Nr. 119 ()

enough for the IEA to think about an emergency release," Acting
Executive Director William Ramsay told Reuters in an
interview.
"But we don`t need to wait for a war, if there is one,
because we`ve already lost 3 million barrels a day from
Venezuela."
He said talks could start as early as a scheduled governing
board meeting on Jan. 17 at IEA headquarters in Paris,
depending on the oil market`s response to Sunday`s OPEC
meeting.
The United States has not tapped national reserves. The
Department of Energy said this week it has allowed U.S. oil
companies to defer deliveries of a total of 3.1 million barrels
they had owed national petroleum reserves to September.
Prices rose strongly Thursday after comments from chief
United nations weapons inspector Hans Blix hardened the case
for a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
Prior to a U.N. Security Council briefing, Blix told
reporters that, after seven weeks in Iraq, the arms inspection
team had found no "smoking guns" but that he was dissatisfied
with Iraq`s 12,000-page weapons declaration.
"We think the declaration failed to answer a great many
questions," he said.
But a spokesman for British Prime Minister Tony Blair said
a Jan. 27 deadline for the U.N. inspectors` full report was not
a deadline for a decision on war.
And U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell backed up the
British view. "It`s not necessarily a D-day for decision
making," he said." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Oil prices slip on expected OPEC hike

NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices slipped on
Friday as expectations that OPEC will boost crude production at
an emergency meeting this weekend outweighed a dearth of crude
from Venezuela and concerns about a possible war with Iraq.
Traders were awaiting the decision of an emergency meeting
of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Sunday in
Vienna, where ministers are expected to agree an output
increase of around 7 percent to help compensate for deep supply
losses from a Venezuelan strike.
Crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled
31 cents lower at $31.68 per barrel. In London, Brent crude
settled up 3 cents at $29.67 per barrel. On Thursday, NYMEX
crude futures had jumped $1.48 per barrel on the concerns over
Venezuela and Iraq.
The 40-day-old Venezuelan strike continued to raise
concerns about supply and the market digested mixed signals on
the likelihood of war in Iraq.
The U.S. government planned an initiative to form a group
of nations to help end the strike in Venezuela, the world`s
fifth largest oil exporter, a U.S. official said.
Washington hoped the idea could support Organization of
American States Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria`s efforts to
end the crisis, which pits the leftist president against
opposition groups who wish to oust him, the official said.
On Friday, Chavez said he fired nearly 1,000 employees of
state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, from the thousands of
PDVSA workers who have joined the strike.
Venezuela supplies about 13 percent of U.S. crude imports.
The strike has knocked production down to one-fifth of its 3.1
million barrel levels, the government says. Opposition leaders
say the level is even lower.

WHEN TO TAP RESERVES
Oil was also pressured by the possibility of preliminary
talks at the Paris-based International Energy Agency on tapping
international reserves. The acting head of IEA said Friday war
in Iraq, if it coincided with an ongoing strike in Venezuela,
could trigger deliveries from the IEA`s strategic oil
reserves.
"Iraq and Venezuela both being out would certainly be
enough for the IEA to think about an emergency release," Acting
Executive Director William Ramsay told Reuters in an
interview.
"But we don`t need to wait for a war, if there is one,
because we`ve already lost 3 million barrels a day from
Venezuela."
He said talks could start as early as a scheduled governing
board meeting on Jan. 17 at IEA headquarters in Paris,
depending on the oil market`s response to Sunday`s OPEC
meeting.
The United States has not tapped national reserves. The
Department of Energy said this week it has allowed U.S. oil
companies to defer deliveries of a total of 3.1 million barrels
they had owed national petroleum reserves to September.
Prices rose strongly Thursday after comments from chief
United nations weapons inspector Hans Blix hardened the case
for a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
Prior to a U.N. Security Council briefing, Blix told
reporters that, after seven weeks in Iraq, the arms inspection
team had found no "smoking guns" but that he was dissatisfied
with Iraq`s 12,000-page weapons declaration.
"We think the declaration failed to answer a great many
questions," he said.
But a spokesman for British Prime Minister Tony Blair said
a Jan. 27 deadline for the U.N. inspectors` full report was not
a deadline for a decision on war.
And U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell backed up the
British view. "It`s not necessarily a D-day for decision
making," he said.

[/b][/b]

schrieb am 12.01.03 18:42:57

Beitrag Nr. 120 ()

OPEC ASSUMES IRAQ PRODUCTION AT 2.3 MLN BPD - ATTIYAH
VIENNA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - OPEC will meet again if Venezuela
restores full production, OPEC President and Qatari Oil Minister
Abdullah al-Attiyah told a news conference on Sunday.
The cartel has agreed to raise output by 1.5 million barrels
per day to help quell an oil price rally which has accelarated
due to the loss of strikebound Venezuela`s exports.

Bei mehr Angebot kann der Preis eigenltich nur fallen. Gute News die einer weltweiten Steuersenkung gleichkommt, und dazu noch ein starker Euro, somit sollten die Energiepreise wieder etwas runter kommen. Für die News daher gleich dreimal

Im übrigen ist Venezuela schon dabei den Output langsam wieder hoch zu fahren. Mitte Februar soll dieser dann etwa wieder auf dem normalen Level sein. Wenn der Output wieder normal ist, dann will die Opec neu beraten, da sie nicht den Markt mit Öl fluten wollen, sondern derzeit nur die durch die Streik in Venezuela entstanden Engpaß ausgleichen wollen.

Saudi oil min says new OPEC ceiling 24.5 million bpd
VIENNA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali
al-Naimi said OPEC had agreed to a new 24.5 million barrels per
day output ceiling, including strikebound Venezuela in the deal.
The deal adds 1.5 million bpd to the former ceiling of 23
million bpd.

Meine Quellen zeigen Venezuela mit etwa 8-12% der Weltproduktion an. Die Opec ist da aber nicht immer ganz offen wieviel die Anteile von den Ländern sind. Ich denke dazu kommt noch das einige Nationen nicht ganz offen sagen was der Output ist.

VENEZUELA NOW PRODUCING ABOUT 700,000 BPD - OPEC PRESIDENT
VIENNA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - OPEC will meet again if Venezuela
restores full production, OPEC President and Qatari Oil Minister
Abdullah al-Attiyah told a news conference on Sunday.
The cartel has agreed to raise output by 1.5 million barrels
per day to help quell an oil price rally which has accelarated
due to the loss of strikebound Venezuela`s exports.

Da Venezuela aber schon wieder ein wenig Output hat, ist die Entscheidung der Opec glaube ich durchaus angemessen.

the ceiling by 1.5," the minister said. "OPEC countries
committed themselves to defend and support our market share
until such time that we can re-establish oil production levels
in mid-February."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Venezuela expects to be at 2.5mbpd by mid Feb
VIENNA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Venezuelan Energy and Mines
Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters on Sunday he expected
production from the strikebound OPEC-member to climb back to 2.5
million barrels per day by mid-February.
"We have an agreement signed by all OPEC members to increase
the ceiling by 1.5," the minister said. "OPEC countries
committed themselves to defend and support our market share
until such time that we can re-establish oil production levels
in mid-February."

schrieb am 13.01.03 21:16:43

Beitrag Nr. 121 ()

GERMANY 2002 WPI -0.1% Y/Y; 2001 +1.7%; 2000 +5.5%
GERMANY DEC WPI EX-OIL +0.1 M/M, +0.2% Y/Y; NOV +0.6% Y/Y
GERMANY DEC WPI RISE BELOW EXPECTED; MNI MEDIAN +0.4% M/M
GERMANY DEC WPI +0.1% M/M, +1.1% Y/Y; NOV +1.1% Y/Y

Germany Data: Wholesale Price Index, Pct Chg - History

Release for: December 2002
Release date: January 13, 2003
INDEX |-PCT CHNG-|
INDEX: 1995=100 M/M Y/Y
Dec02 105.2 0.1 1.1
Nov02 105.1 -0.8 1.1
Oct02 105.9 -0.2 0.9
Sep02 106.1 0.9 0.3
Aug02 105.2 0.0 -0.5
Jul02 105.2 -0.1 -0.8
Jun02 105.3 -0.7 -1.5
May02 106.0 -0.4 -1.3
Apr02 106.4 -0.1 -0.5
Mar02 106.5 0.9 0.0
Feb02 105.6 0.2 -0.5
Jan02 105.4 1.2 0.2
Dec01 104.1 0.1 -1.5
Nov01 104.0 -1.0 -1.9
Oct01 105.0 -0.8 na
Sep01 105.8 0.1 na
Aug01 105.7 0.1 na
Jul01 106.0 -0.8 na
Jun01 106.9 -0.5 na
May01 107.4 0.5 na
Apr01 106.9 0.4 na
Mar01 106.5 0.4 na
Feb01 106.1 0.9 na
Jan01 105.2 -0.5 na
Dec00 105.7 -0.3 na
Nov00 106.0 na na
2001 105.8 na 1.7
2000 104.0 na 5.5
1999 98.6 na -0.9
1998 99.5 na -2.0
1997 101.5 na 1.9

Germany Data Wholesale Price Index, Pct Chg - Details

Release for: December 2002
Release date: January 13, 2003
Index 2002 -Pct Chgs-
Category: Weight Avg. Dec01 Nov02 Dec02 Mo/Mo Yr/Yr
1995=100
Total Index 1000.00 105.7 104.1 105.1 105.2 0.1 1.1
Total Ex-Oil Products 910.35 102.0 101.3 101.4 101.5 0.1 0.2
Total Ex-Seasonal Gds* 964.60 104.8 103.4 104.8 104.7 -0.1 1.3
Seasonal Goods* 35.40 127.7 124.9 114.6 119.4 4.2 -4.4
Agriculture, Forestry,
Fishing Products 98.96 98.1 96.9 92.6 93.8 1.3 -3.2
Mining, Manufacturing 801.04 106.5 104.9 106.5 106.5 0.0 1.5
Mining, Manufacturing
Ex-Petroleum Products 811.39 102.5 101.8 102.5 102.4 -0.1 0.6
Basic Goods Products 394.50 111.0 107.9 111.5 111.5 0.0 3.3
Energy Products 96.82 140.4 131.1 140.8 140.7 -0.1 7.3
Basic Goods ex Energy 297.68 102.0 100.8 102.5 102.5 0.0 1.7
Capital Goods Products 130.57 92.5 92.1 91.9 91.8 -0.1 -0.3
Consumer Goods 375.97 106.1 105.8 105.9 105.7 -0.2 -0.1
Durable Consumer Goods 58.81 101.2 100.7 101.1 101.0 -0.1 0.3
Non-durable Consumer Gds 317.16 107.0 106.9 106.8 106.6 -0.2 -0.3
Manufactured Goods 891.29 106.4 104.8 106.5 106.4 -0.1 1.5
Manufactured Goods
Ex-Petroleum Products 801.64 102.3 101.7 102.4 102.3 -0.1 0.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Agricultural Raw Materials,
Livestock 51.71 98.4 97.3 94.3 95.0 0.7 -2.4
Food, Drinks, Tobacco 238.50 106.7 105.8 105.4 105.6 0.2 -0.2
Consumer Durable and
Nondurable Goods 241.70 101.5 101.9 101.5 101.3 -0.2 -0.6
Raw Materials Semi-Fin.
Goods, Recycled Goods 322.61 113.5 109.7 113.9 114.0 0.1 3.9
Machinery, Equipment,
Accessories 88.84 88.7 88.3 87.9 87.9 0.0 -0.5
Other Wholesale Goods 56.84 107.1 105.9 106.8 106.9 0.1 0.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Fresh Fruit, Tropical Fruit, Fresh Vegetables, Fresh Flowers,
Fresh Fish

Ja man soll es nicht glauben, die Großhandelspreise sind deutlich zurückgekommen. Deutlich mehr als erwartet!!! Die Löhne seigen ja bekannlich, wie jüngst die Tarifabschlüsse der Gewerkschaften zeigen. Gute Nachrichten, da bisher keine Deflationsgefahren zu sehen sind.

UK DEC SA PRODUCER INPUT PRICES UP 2.8% M/M; UP 2.6% Y/Y NSA
UK DEC NSA PRODUCER OUTPUT PRICES UP 0.1% M/M; UP 1.2% Y/Y
UK DEC SA CORE OUTPUT PRICES UP 0.1% M/M; UP 0.8% Y/Y
UK NS: SA INPUT PRICE M/M RISE LARGEST SINCE MAY 2000
UK NOV CRUDE OIL PRICES UP 17.1% M/M; UP 38.1% Y/Y
UK NS: DEC CORE OUTPUT PRICE INFLATION HIGHEST SINCE OCT 2000

UK December producer prices
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics released the following provisional data on British
producer prices (previously announced data in brackets):
OUTPUT PRICES (unadj) DEC NOV (PREL NOV)
Monthly change 0.1 -0.3 (-0.2)
Year-on-year change 1.2 1.2 (1.2)
Index (base 1995) 108.8 108.7 (108.7)
OUTPUT PRICES EX FOOD/DRINK/TOBACCO PETROLEUM (unadj)
Monthly change 0.1 UNCH (-0.1)
Year-on-year change 0.8 0.6 (0.6)
Index (base 1995) 103.3 103.2 (103.2)
OUTPUT PRICES EX FOOD,DRINK,TOBACCO,PETROLEUM (adjusted)
Monthly change 0.1 0.1 (0.1)
Year-on-year change 0.8* 0.7 (0.7)
Index (base 1995) 103.4 103.3 (103.3)
OUTPUT PRICES EX EXCISE DUTIES (PPIY)(adjusted)
Monthly change 0.1 0.2 (0.1)
Year-on-year change 1.1 1.1 (1.0)
Index (base 1995) 105.4 105.3 (105.2)
INPUT PRICES (MATERIALS AND FUEL) (unadjusted)
Monthly change 3.2 -2.2 (-2.3)
Year-on-year change 2.6 -0.7 (-1.0)
Index (base 1995) 91.2 88.4 (88.1)
INPUT PRICES (MATERIALS AND FUEL) (adjusted)
Monthly change 2.8** -3.3 (-3.4)
Year-on-year change 2.7*** -0.3 (-0.9)
Index 91.0 88.5 (88.0)
INPUT PRICES EX F,D,T,P (unadjusted)
Monthly change 0.5 0.4 (0.1)
Year-on-year change -1.4 -1.9 (-2.1)
Index 84.9 84.5 (84.3)
INPUT PRICES EX F,D,T,P (adjusted)
Monthly change -0.1 -0.9 (-0.9)
Year-on-year change -1.3 -1.9 (-2.0)
Index 83.6 83.7 (83.6)
INPUT COMPONENTS PCT CHANGE DEC M/M DEC Y/Y
fuel 1.7 -8.9
crude oil etc 17.1**** 38.1*****
food materials: home produced 0.8 -7.4
imported 0.1 -1.1
other home produced -0.2 9.2
imported metals 0.1 0.5
imported chemicals 0.5 0.3
other imported materials 0.2 -1.6

CONSENSUS FORECASTS mm yy
Output prices nsa 0.1 1.2
Input prices sa 2.3 1.8
* Highest since October 2000 when it was +1.0 percent.
** Highest since May 2000 when it was +3.6 percent.
*** Highest since June 2001 when it was +3.1 percent.
**** Highest since May 2000 when it was +23.7 percent.
***** Highest since November 200 when it was +49.9 percent.
NS said the rise in input prices was mostly due to
higher crude oil prices.

Contributions To Producer Input Prices

Data for: Dec Data released: Jan 13, 2003
Data not seasonally adjusted
Source: U.K. Office for National Statistics

Latest 12 months Month on month
effect effect
weights % chg on index % chg on index
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel 11.2 -8.9 -1.14 1.7 0.21
Crude oil, etc. 11.1 38.1 5.13 17.1 2.74
Food manufacturing materials:
home produced 18.1 -7.4 -1.24 0.8 0.12
imported 7.7 -1.1 -0.09 0.1 0.00
Other home produced materials 2.1 8.2 0.22 -0.2 -0.01
Imported metals 9.7 0.5 0.05 0.1 0.02
Imported chemicals 15.9 0.3 0.02 0.5 0.06
Other imported materials 25.2 -1.6 -0.37 0.2 0.06
Total 100.0 2.6 2.60 3.2 3.20

==> So toll haben mir die Zahlen nicht gefallen von Großbritannien. Hohe Energiepreise bestimmen hier vor allem die hohen Einkaufspreise.

zurückgehen, dieses Jahr um 0,5 Prozent", sagte Sal.
Oppenheim-Analyst Jörg Frey. Innerhalb der Branche sei
Konkurrent Metro auf Grund seines viel höheren Auslandsanteils
wesentlich besser aufgestellt.

MINUS IM WARENHAUSGESCHÄFT - WACHSTUM IM VERSAND
Vor allem die Warenhäuser und Fachgeschäfte litten unter der
Kaufzurückhaltung der Verbraucher. Im wichtigen vierten Quartal
brach der Umsatz um 8,8 Prozent auf 2,3 Milliarden Euro ein. Im
Gesamtjahr betrug das Umsatzminus 8,5 Prozent. Deutliche
Wachstumsraten bescherte dem Konzern dagegen der Versandhandel.
Der Geschäftsbereich mit den Kernmarken Quelle und Neckermann
erwirtschaftete im vierten Quartal ein Umsatzplus von 6,2
Prozent. Im Gesamtjahr kletterten die Erlöse um 5,1 Prozent auf
8,2 Milliarden Euro. Quelle hatte 2002 wegen des 75-jährigen
Firmenjubiläums mit zahlreichen Sonderangeboten geworben. Auch
die Nachfrage über das Internet kletterte um 53 Prozent auf 1,2
Milliarden Euro.
Zur Entwicklung der gemeinsam mit der Lufthansa (LHAG.DE)
betriebenen Tochter Thomas Cook äußerte sich der Konzern nicht.
KarstadtQuelle hatte unter dem Strich in den ersten neun Monaten
auf Grund erheblicher Probleme bei seiner Reisesparte einen
hohen Konzernverlust verbucht.

BÖRSE NIMMT KARSTADT-ZAHLEN POSITIV AUF
Die KarstadtQuelle-Aktie legte zu Handelsbeginn zunächst um
knapp fünf Prozent auf 17,27 Euro zu. Gegen Mittag pendelte der
Kurs bei Werten um 16,96 Euro. Im Vorfeld der Zahlen seien viele
Anleger sehr vorsichtig gewesen, weswegen es nun zu einer
Erholung an der Börse komme, sagte Frey. Analyst Thomas Hofmann
von der LB Rheinland-Pfalz sagte: "Der wichtige Handelsmonat
Dezember ist scheinbar nicht so schlecht gelaufen wie viele
befürchtet hatten."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Umsatzminus von KarstadtQuelle geringer als erwartet
(Neu: Analysten, aktueller Kurs)
Düsseldorf, 13. Jan (Reuters) - Der Umsatzrückgang bei
Europas größtem Warenhaus- und Versandhandelskonzern
KarstadtQuelle ist im Jahr 2002 geringer ausgefallen
als erwartet.
Das Unternehmen bestätigte am Montag seine Gewinnprognose
für das abgelaufene Geschäftsjahr, bezeichnete aber zugleich
einen Ausblick für die nächsten Monate als schwierig. Während
der Konzern im vierten Quartal 2002 beim Versandhandel deutlich
zulegte, brach der Umsatz der Warenhäuser wie Karstadt und
Hertie sowie der Fachgeschäfte trotz des Weihnachtsgeschäfts
deutlich ein. Die Aktien des Konzerns reagierten mit
Kursgewinnen auf die Zahlen.
Der Konzernumsatz sei nach vorläufigen Zahlen 2002 um 1,7
Prozent auf 15,8 Milliarden Euro gefallen, teilte KarstadtQuelle
mit. Damit lag das Umsatzminus unter dem noch Mitte November vom
Konzern prognostizierten Rückgang von drei Prozent. Auch
Analysten hatten mit einem deutlicheren Minus gerechnet.
HypoVereinsbank-Analyst Volker Bosse etwa hatte Umsatzeinbußen
von 2,4 Prozent auf 15,68 Milliarden Euro prognostiziert.
Das vergangene Geschäftsjahr gilt als eines der
schwierigsten in der Geschichte des deutschen Einzelhandels.
Allein im November hatte der deutsche Einzelhandel nach Zahlen
des Statistischen Bundesamts ein reales Umsatzminus von sechs
Prozent hinnehmen müssen. KarstadtQuelle-Konkurrent Metro
hatte 2002 dank seines hohen Auslandsanteils beim
Umsatz zulegen können, sein Umsatzziel aber knapp verfehlt. Der
Handelskonzern Douglas (DOHG.DE) hatte den Umsatz nur durch
Zukäufe steigern können.

URBAN WILL ERGEBNISPROGNOSE ERREICHEN
Durch den Umsatzverlauf im vierten Quartal sei das
angepeilte Ergebnis vor Ertragssteuern und
Firmenwertabschreibungen (Ebta) von 250 Millionen Euro für das
Gesamtjahr abgesichert, teilte KarstadtQuelle mit. Ein Ausblick
für die nächsten Monate sei schwierig. Analysten rechnen 2003
nicht mit einer durchgreifenden Besserung im deutschen
Einzelhandel. "Die Umsätze von Karstadt werden weiter
zurückgehen, dieses Jahr um 0,5 Prozent", sagte Sal.
Oppenheim-Analyst Jörg Frey. Innerhalb der Branche sei
Konkurrent Metro auf Grund seines viel höheren Auslandsanteils
wesentlich besser aufgestellt.

MINUS IM WARENHAUSGESCHÄFT - WACHSTUM IM VERSAND
Vor allem die Warenhäuser und Fachgeschäfte litten unter der
Kaufzurückhaltung der Verbraucher. Im wichtigen vierten Quartal
brach der Umsatz um 8,8 Prozent auf 2,3 Milliarden Euro ein. Im
Gesamtjahr betrug das Umsatzminus 8,5 Prozent. Deutliche
Wachstumsraten bescherte dem Konzern dagegen der Versandhandel.
Der Geschäftsbereich mit den Kernmarken Quelle und Neckermann
erwirtschaftete im vierten Quartal ein Umsatzplus von 6,2
Prozent. Im Gesamtjahr kletterten die Erlöse um 5,1 Prozent auf
8,2 Milliarden Euro. Quelle hatte 2002 wegen des 75-jährigen
Firmenjubiläums mit zahlreichen Sonderangeboten geworben. Auch
die Nachfrage über das Internet kletterte um 53 Prozent auf 1,2
Milliarden Euro.
Zur Entwicklung der gemeinsam mit der Lufthansa (LHAG.DE)
betriebenen Tochter Thomas Cook äußerte sich der Konzern nicht.
KarstadtQuelle hatte unter dem Strich in den ersten neun Monaten
auf Grund erheblicher Probleme bei seiner Reisesparte einen
hohen Konzernverlust verbucht.

BÖRSE NIMMT KARSTADT-ZAHLEN POSITIV AUF
Die KarstadtQuelle-Aktie legte zu Handelsbeginn zunächst um
knapp fünf Prozent auf 17,27 Euro zu. Gegen Mittag pendelte der
Kurs bei Werten um 16,96 Euro. Im Vorfeld der Zahlen seien viele
Anleger sehr vorsichtig gewesen, weswegen es nun zu einer
Erholung an der Börse komme, sagte Frey. Analyst Thomas Hofmann
von der LB Rheinland-Pfalz sagte: "Der wichtige Handelsmonat
Dezember ist scheinbar nicht so schlecht gelaufen wie viele
befürchtet hatten."

Die Zahlen waren zwar besser als erwartet, aber mich wollen sie nicht wirklich vom Hocker hauen. Habe mich daher für weder Up noch Down entschlossen.

schrieb am 13.01.03 21:45:03

Beitrag Nr. 122 ()

Weiterhin muß ich sagen, daß sich die DRAM Preise in Europa erstaunlich gut gehalten haben, und sogar zum Teil bis zu 5% heute zulegen konnten.

Das Öl reagiert derzeit nicht wirklich normal, ich halte es für eine getürkte Reaktion von einigen Händlern. Die Förderquote ist einfach zu gut angehoben worden, und da es wärmer wird, sollte die Nachfrage auch fallen.

Infineon

ist von JP Morgan upgegraded worden, mit der Begründung gegenüber der Konkurrenz recht gut da zu stehen mit viel Cashreserven und mit guten Kosteneinsparungen.

Intel

als der Chipriese wurde von Salomon Smith Barney heraufgestuft, weil man davon ausgeht, das hier doch mehr umgesetzt wurde.

Qualcom

wurde von CSFB heraufgestuft.

Microsoft konnte einen Rechtsstreit beilegen, mußte dafür allerdings Gutscheine im Wert von 1,1 Mrd. USD aufbieten.

CSFB stuft Motorola

herunter und Dell

wird von JP Morgan heruntergestuft.

UBS stuft die Erwartungen für JDS Uniphase

im Q2 herunter.

Yahoo wurde von Piper heraufgestuft, und von First Albany heruntergestuft. :confused:

Geauso unentschieden wie diese Analystenkommentare zum Teil sind, so ist auch das Marktvolumen derzeit wenig richtungsweisend.

schrieb am 13.01.03 21:46:13

Beitrag Nr. 123 ()

************************************************************…

schrieb am 13.01.03 21:53:27

Beitrag Nr. 124 ()

Rambus:

Hier werden 5 Cent erwartet.

Und mal sehen wie die Analystenkonferen bei RadioShack ankommt.

Radioshack:

schrieb am 13.01.03 22:20:21

Beitrag Nr. 125 ()

Rambus Q1 net down
LOS ALTOS, Calif., Jan 13 (Reuters) -
RAMBUS INC.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(in thousands, except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
Dec. 31, Sep 30, Dec. 31,
2002 2002 2001
Revenues:
Contract revenues $ 1,379 $ 1,244 $ 3,084
Royalties 24,325 23,236 21,780
Total revenues 25,704 24,480 24,864
Costs and expenses:
Cost of contract revenues 1,595 1,819 2,158
Research and development 6,518 6,116 5,120
Marketing, general &
administrative 6,274 6,268 5,515
Litigation expense 4,480 2,779 4,509
Total costs and expenses 18,867 16,982 17,302
Operating income 6,837 7,498 7,562
Interest and other income, net 1,294 1,555 1,937
Income before income taxes 8,131 9,053 9,499
Provision for income taxes 2,602 3,168 3,325
Net income 5,529 5,885 6,174
Net income per share - basic 0.06 0.06 0.06
Net income per share - diluted 0.06 0.06 0.06
Shares used in per share
calculations:
Basic 97,436 97,644 100,336
Diluted 100,209 98,749 104,016

Positive News. Einen Cent besser als erwartet.

schrieb am 18.01.03 14:42:51

Beitrag Nr. 126 ()

Aufarbeiten der Zahlen vom Dienstag (Kurzversion):

Dienstag 14.01.03

08:00 Deutschland Konsumentenpreis-Index…

08:00 Japan Maschinenbauaufträge November endg. -7,4% gg Vm Kernrate: -0,2% gg Vm
08:00 Deutschland Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember +0,1% gg Vm, 1,1% gg Vj Konsumentenpreis-Index 2002 +1,3% gg Vj
08:50 Frankreich Export November 26,3 Mrd. EUR Import November 26,0 Mrd. EUR Handelsbilanz November 273 Mio. EUR
08:50 Frankreich Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember vorl. 0,2% gg Vm, 2,3% gg Vj
08:50 Frankreich Industrieproduktion November 1,2% gg Vm, 0,1% gg Vj
10:30 Großbritannien Industrieproduktion November -0,5% gg Vm, -1,2% gg Vj
10:38 Italien Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember +0,1% gg Vm, 2,8% gg Vj
13:45 USA
US BTM-UBSW WKLY CHAIN STORE INDEX +0.3% W/W WK ENDED JAN11
US BTM-UBSW WKLY CHAIN STORE INDEX +2.9% Y/Y WK ENDED JAN11
US BTM-UBSW WKLY CHAIN STORE SALES `ON-TO-BELOW PLAN`
14:30 USA Einzelhandelsumsätze Dezember 1,2% gg Vm (erw. 1,5%) ex Auto: unv. gg Vm (erw. 0,3%)
14:30 USA Exportpreise (ohne Agrar) Dezember -0,1% gg Vm Importpreise (ohne Öl) Dezember 0,1% gg Vm
14:55 USA
US REDBOOK: JAN STORE SALES +0.9% VS DEC THROUGH JAN 11 WEEK
US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +2.0% IN WK ENDED JAN 11 VS YR AGO WK
US REDBOOK: JANUARY 2003 STORE SALES +2.0% VS JANUARY 2002
US REDBOOK: JANUARY SALES `AHEAD OF PLAN` VS WEAK DECEMBER
16:00 USA
US RICHMOND FED: DEC MFG SHIPMENTS INDEX -2 VS NOV -1
US RICHMOND FED: DEC MFG NEW ORDERS INDEX 4 VS NOV 4
US RICHMOND FED: DEC MFG PRICES PAID INDEX 0.95 VS NOV 0.49
US RICHMOND FED: DEC SVC-SECTOR REVENUES INDEX -19 V NOV 0
US RICHMOND FED: DEC RETL SALE REVENUES INDEX -36 VS NOV -11

Intel Corp. q4 net rises
Thomson First Call average estimate was $0.14/shr.
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan 14 (Reuters) -
INTEL CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY INCOME STATEMENT DATA
(In millions, except per share amounts)
Three Months Twelve Months
Ended Ended
Dec. 28, Dec. 29, Dec. 28, Dec. 29,
2002 2001 2002 2001
NET REVENUE $7,160 $6,983 $26,764 $26,539
Cost of sales 3,464 3,402 13,446 13,487
Research and development 1,022 952 4,034 3,796
Marketing, general and administrative
1,104 1,071 4,334 4,464
Amortization of goodwill - 405 - 1,710
Amortization and impairment of
acquisition-related
intangibles and costs 106 145 548 628
Purchased in-process research and
development - - 20 198
Operating costs and expenses 5,696 5,975 22,382 24,283
OPERATING INCOME 1,464 1,008 4,382 2,256
Losses on equity securities, net
(171) (287) (372) (466)
Interest and other, net 54 73 194 393
INCOME BEFORE TAXES 1,347 794 4,204 2,183
Income taxes 298 290 1,087 892
NET INCOME 1,049 504 3,117 1,291
BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE 0.16 0.08 0.47 0.19
DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE 0.16 0.07 0.46 0.19
COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING 6,598 6,698 6,651 6,716
COMMON SHARES ASSUMING DILUTION
6,660 6,851 6,759 6,879

schrieb am 18.01.03 14:57:24

Beitrag Nr. 127 ()

Aufarbeiten der Zahlen von Mittwoch:

Mittwoch 15.01.03

05:30 Japan Verbrauchervertrauen
06:00 …

09:40 Japan Verbrauchervertrauen Dezember 39,7 (Vm: 43,0)
09:40 Japan Zahlungsbilanz November vorl. 11,6 Bill. YEN (Vm: 9,3 Bill.)
10:30 Großbritannien Arbeitslosenzahlen (Claiment Count) Dezember unv. bei 3,1%
12:00 EU Arbeitskosten-Index 3. Quartal revidiert Eurozone: +3,7% gg Vjq EU-15: +3,7% gg Vjq
13:00 USA
MORTGAGE BANKERS US MARKET INDEX -2.4% TO 1154.3 JAN 10 WK
MORTGAGE BANKERS US SA REFI INDEX -1.4% TO 5786.4 JAN 10 WK
MORTGAGE BANKERS US PURCH INDEX -4.8% TO 358.0 JAN 10 WK
14:30 USA Produzentenpreis-Index Dezember unv. gg Vm (erw. 0,3%) Kernrate: -0,3% gg Vm (erw. 0,1%)
14:30 USA Lagerbestände (Geschäft) November +0,2% gg Vm (erw. 0,1%)
20:08 USA FED - Beige Book:
- privater Konsum schwach
- Industrieproduktion steigt etwas
- Lage im Industriesektor ist schwierig

Symantech Q3 net
Thomson First Call average estimate was $0.39/shr.
CUPERTINO, Calif., Jan 15 (Reuters) -
SYMANTEC CORPORATION
GAAP Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands, except per share data; unaudited)
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
2002 2001 2002 2001
Net revenues $375,635 $290,247 $1,016,907 $760,655
Cost of revenues 65,280 52,297 181,891 142,602
Gross margin 310,355 237,950 835,016 618,053
Operating expenses:
Research and development
50,022 40,714 142,854 120,205
Sales and marketing 139,479 109,770 379,543 313,406
General and
administrative 19,346 15,544 51,954 38,983
Amortization of
goodwill -- 49,413 -- 147,809
Amortization of other
intangibles from
acquisitions 793 536 1,994 1,608
Acquired in-process
research and
development -- -- 4,700 --
Restructuring, site
closures and other (442) 9,377 4,432 11,423
Total operating
expenses 209,198 225,354 585,477 633,434
Operating income (loss)
101,157 12,596 249,539 (15,381)
Interest income 9,039 7,681 28,408 22,634
Interest expense (5,292) (3,871) (15,875) (3,871)
Income, net of expense,
from sale of technologies
and product lines (256) 4,387 4,424 13,279
Other expense, net (300) (33) (1,425) (1,026)
Income before income taxes
104,348 20,760 265,071 15,635
Provision for income taxes
32,616 20,660 84,776 48,565
Net income (loss) 71,732 100 180,295 (32,930)
Net income (loss) per
share - diluted(a) 0.44 0.00 1.13 (0.23)
Shares used to compute net
income (loss)
per share - diluted(a)
170,808 147,140 169,453 144,046
(a) For the three and nine months ended December 31, 2002,
diluted net income per share is calculated using the
if-converted method. Under this method, the numerator excludes
the interest expense from the 3% convertible subordinated
debentures, net of income tax, of $3.6M and $10.8M for the
three and nine months ended December 31, 2002, respectively,
and the denominator includes shares issuable from the assumed
conversion of the 3% convertible subordinated debentures.
SYMANTEC CORPORATION
PRO FORMA Consolidated Statements of Income
Pro forma amounts exclude all acquisition related
amortization and
one-time charges.
(In thousands, except per share data; unaudited)
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
2002 2001 2002 2001
Net revenues $375,635$ 290,247 $1,016,907 $760,655
Cost of revenues 57,160 44,968 160,761 119,640
Gross margin 318,475 245,279 856,146 641,015
Operating expenses:
Research and development
50,022 40,714 142,854 120,205
Sales and marketing 139,479 109,770 379,543 313,406
General and
administrative 19,346 15,544 51,954 38,983
Total operating
expenses 208,847 166,028 574,351 472,594
Operating income 109,628 79,251 281,795 168,421
Interest income 9,039 7,681 28,408 22,634
Interest expense (5,292) (3,871) (15,875) (3,871)
Income, net of expense,
from sale of technologies
and product lines (256) 4,387 4,424 13,279
Other expense, net (300) (33) (1,425) (1,026)
Income before income taxes
112,819 87,415 297,327 199,437
Provision for income taxes
36,102 27,973 95,145 63,820
Net income 76,717 59,442 202,182 135,617
Net income per share -
diluted(b) 0.47 0.39 1.26 0.89
Shares used to compute
net income per share
- diluted(b) 170,808 159,886 169,453 155,240
(b) For the three and nine months ended December 31, 2002 and
2001, diluted net income per share is calculated using the
if-converted method. Under this method, the numerator
excludes the interest expense from the 3% convertible
subordinated debentures, net of income tax, of $3.6M and
$10.8M for the three and nine months ended December 31, 2002
and $2.6M each for the three and nine months ended December
31, 2001, respectively, and the denominator includes shares
issuable from the assumed conversion of the 3% convertible
subordinated debentures. Reconciliation of PRO FORMA
Consolidated Statements of Income to
the GAAP Consolidated Statements of Operations
(In thousands, except per share data; unaudited)
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
2002 2001 2002 2001
Pro forma net income $ 76,717 $ 59,442 $202,182 $ 135,617
Amortization of goodwill -- (49,413) -- (147,809)
Amortization of other
intangibles from
acquisitions:
Cost of revenues (8,120) (7,329) (21,130) (22,962)
Operating expenses (793) (536) (1,994) (1,608)
Acquired in-process
research and development -- -- (4,700) --
Restructuring, site
closures and other 442 (9,377) (4,432) (11,423)
Income tax benefit 3,486 7,313 10,369 15,255
Net income (loss) 71,732 100 180,295 (32,930)
Net income (loss) per share -
diluted 0.44 0.00 1.13 (0.23)
Shares used to compute net
income (loss)
per share - diluted
170,808 147,140 169,453 144,046

Yahoo-Quartalsgewinn höher als erwartet
Sunnyvale, 15. Jan (Reuters) - Das US-Internetunternehmen
Yahoo (YHOO.O) hat im abgelaufenen Quartal einen höheren Gewinn
erwirtschaftet als von Analysten erwartet. Der Nettogewinn habe
sich auf 46,2 (Vorjahreszeitraum minus 8,7) Millionen Dollar
oder acht (minus zwei) Cent je Aktie belaufen, teilte Yahoo am
Mittwoch nach Börsenschluss mit. Analysten hatten im Schnitt mit
einem geringeren Gewinn je Aktie von sechs Cent gerechnet. Der
Umsatz verbesserte sich auf 285,8 (188,9) Millionen Dollar,
verglichen mit Analystenerwartungen von 278,6 Millionen Dollar.

Apple Computer posts 1st qtr loss
CUPERTINO, Calif., Jan 15 (Reuters) - Apple Computer Inc.
(AAPL.O) on Wednesday posted its second consecutive quarterly
net loss after soft year-end computer sales and a restructuring
charge.
Apple`s net fiscal first-quarter loss of $8 million, or 2
cents a share, compared with year-earlier net income of $38
million, or 11 cents a share.
Revenue was $1.47 billion, up 7 percent from the $1.38
billion a year earlier, the Cupertino, California-based company
said.
Excluding one-time items including a $17 million after-tax
restructuring charge and a $2 million after-tax accounting
transition adjustment, Apple said it would have earned 3 cents
per share.
On that basis, Apple met the expectations of analysts
polled by Thomson First Call, who on average estimated a profit
of 3 cents per share, in a range of 1 cent to 5 cents, on
revenue of $1.49 billion.

schrieb am 18.01.03 15:25:02

Beitrag Nr. 128 ()

Aufarbeiten der Zahlen von Donnerstag:

Donnerstag 16.01.03

09:15 Deutschland BIP (abgelaufenes Ja…

09:00 Deutschland BIP Jahr 2002 +0,2% gg Vj (erw. 0,2%)
14:30 USA Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember 0,1% gg Vm (erw. 0,2%) Kernrate: 0,1% gg Vm (erw. 0,1%)
14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe in der Woche zum 11.01.03 bei 360.000 (erw. 395.000)
14:31 USA Realeinkommen Dezember unv. gg Vm
18:00 USA Philadelphia FED-Index Januar 11,2 (erw. 9,0)
22:30 USA
US M2 -$18.4 BLN; M3 -$58.9 BLN; M1 -$21.6 BLN IN LATEST WK
US M2: SAVINGS DEPOSITS +$8.1B IN WK; SMALL TIME DEP. -$2.1B
US DEC M2 +$13.2 BLN; M3 +$55.5 BLN; M1 +$18.1 BLN
US M2: US RETAIL MONEY MARKET FUND ASSETS +$3.2 BN IN WEEK

Sun Microsystems Q2 net loss
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 16 (Reuters) -
Three Months Ended Six Months Ended
Dec 29, Dec 30, Dec 29, Dec 30,
2002 2001 2002 2001
Net revenues:
Products $2,013 $2,260 $3,893 $4,317
Services 902 848 1,769 1,652
Total net revenues
2,915 3,108 5,662 5,969
Cost of sales:
Cost of sales-products
1,118 1,437 2,211 2,724
Cost of sales-services
534 532 1,056 1,050
Total cost of sales
1,652 1,969 3,267 3,774
Gross margin 1,263 1,139 2,395 2,195
Operating expenses:
Research and
development 451 428 888 901
Selling, general
and administrative 830 966 1,712 1,927
Restructuring charges 357 511 381 525
Purchased in-process
research and
development 4 -- 4 3
Impairment expense 2,125 -- 2,125 --
Total operating
expenses 3,767 1,905 5,110 3,356
Operating loss (2,504) (766) (2,715) (1,161)
Loss on equity
investments, net (11) (39) (42) (58)
Interest income, net 38 68 77 175
Loss before income
taxes (2,477) (737) (2,680) (1,044)
Benefit for income
taxes (194) (306) (286) (433)
Net loss (2,283) (431) (2,394) (611)
Net loss per common
share - basic and
diluted (0.72) (0.13) (0.75) (0.19)
Shares used in the
calculation of net
loss per common
share - basic and
diluted 3,181 3,239 3,175 3,240
Calculation of net
income (loss)
excluding special
items:
Net loss per above (2,283) (431) (2,394) (611)
Purchased in-process
research and
development 4 -- 4 3
Restructuring charges 357 511 381 525
Loss on equity
investments, net 11 39 42 58
Impairment expense 2,125 - 2,125 -
Related tax effects (204) (218) (226) (232)
Net income (loss)
excluding special
items 10 (99) (68) (257)
Net income (loss)
excluding special
items per diluted
common share -- (0.03) (0.02) (0.08)
Shares used in the
calculation of net
income (loss)
excluding special
items per diluted
common share 3,205 3,239 3,175 3,240

IBM says quarterly profit down but sales rise
ARMONK, New York, Jan 16 (Reuters) - International
Business Machines Corp. (IBM.N) on Thursday said its quarterly
profit fell for the sixth quarter in a row, but sales of
services and computer hardware rose.
The computer services, hardware and software company said
income from continuing operations was $1.9 billion, or $1.11
per share, down from $2.6 billion, or $1.46 per share, in the
year-ago period.
Continuing operations exclude IBM`s hard disk drive
business in which it sold a majority stake to Hitachi Ltd. at
the end of last year. Excluding that business, its net income
has fallen six quarters in a row.
IBM, which sells everything from giant mainframe computers
to tiny microchips, said revenue from continuing operations
rose to $23.7 billion from $22.14 billion a year earlier.

UNO-Inspektoren finden leere Chemiewaffen-Sprengköpfe
BAGDAD/NEW YORK/BRÜSSEL - Die UNO-Inspektoren in Irak sind auf der Suche nach
verbotenen Massenvernichtungswaffen auf leere Gefechtsköpfe gestossen, die mit
chemischen Kampfstoffen bestückt werden können.
UNO-Sprecher Hiro Ueki sagte in Bagdad, die Inspektoren hätten in dem
Munitionslager Uchaider elf leere chemische Sprengköpfe und einen weiteren
Gefechtskopf entdeckt, der noch näher ausgewertet werden müsse. Ob die
Sprengköpfe jemals chemische Kampfstoffe enthalten haben, blieb unklar.
Die Bedeutung des Fundes der leeren Sprengköpfe für die Inspektionen wollte der
Sprecher nicht bewerten. Die Gefechtsköpfe seien in einem «vorzüglichen Zustand»
und ähnelten Sprengköpfen, die Irak in den späten 80-er Jahren importiert habe.
Irak nahm zu dem UNO-Bericht zunächst nicht Stellung. Amir el Saadi, ein
hochrangiger Berater von Präsident Saddam Hussein, hatte zuvor mit Blick auf die
anstehende Reise der UNO-Inspekteure in die irakischen Hauptstadt gesagt, man
hoffe am Sonntag und Montag noch vorhandene Beschwerden ausräumen zu können.
UNO-Inspekteur Hans Blix und der Chef der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde
(IAEA), Mohamed El Baradei, werden am 19. und 20. Januar in Bagdad Gespräche mit
der irakischen Regierung führen. Sie fordern, dass der UNO-Sicherheitsrat das
Mandat der Inspektoren verlängern soll. Mit dem für den 27. Januar fälligen
Report werde die Sache nicht beendet sein, erklärte Blix.
Eine andere Interpretation der UNO-Resolutionen vertreten dagegen die USA. Sie
forderten im Weltsciherheitsrat eine zeitliche Begrenzung der Insepktionen.
Damit stiessen sie aber auf Ablehnung der meisten Rats-Mitglieder.
«Die Inspektionen müssen weitergehen, es gibt keinen Grund für eine
Entscheidung des Sicherheitsrates», sagte Grossbritanniens UNO-Botschafter Sir
Jeremy Greenstock nach internen Konsultationen des Rates über das Ansinnen der
USA.

IBM Q4 NET SHR $0.60 INCLUDING DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
ARMONK, New York, Jan 16 (Reuters) - International
Business Machines Corp. (IBM.N) on Thursday said its quarterly
profit fell for the sixth quarter in a row, but sales of
services and computer hardware rose.
The computer services, hardware and software company said
income from continuing operations was $1.9 billion, or $1.11
per share, down from $2.6 billion, or $1.46 per share, in the
year-ago period.
Continuing operations exclude IBM`s hard disk drive
business in which it sold a majority stake to Hitachi Ltd. at
the end of last year. Excluding that business, its net income
has fallen six quarters in a row.
IBM, which sells everything from giant mainframe computers
to tiny microchips, said revenue from continuing operations
rose to $23.7 billion from $22.14 billion a year earlier.

Juniper posts 4th-qtr profit as revenues rise
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Jan 16 (Reuters) - No. 2 network
equipment maker Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR.O) said on Thursday
it swung to a fourth-quarter profit and that revenues rose from
a year earlier despite an overall slump in spending in the
telecommunications industry.
Juniper, a rival of networking industry leader Cisco
Systems Inc. (CSCO.O) , posted fourth-quarter net income of $8.5
million, or 2 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $5.1
million, or 2 cents a share, a year earlier.
Revenues were $155.3 million, compared with $151 million a
year earlier.
Sunnyvale, California-based Juniper reported earnings
excluding items of $2.7 million, or 1 cent a share, compared
with earnings before items of $15.9 million, or 5 cents a
share, a year earlier.
Analysts had, on average, expected a loss before charges of
1 cent a share on revenue of $151.1 million, according to
tracking service Thomson First Call.

EBay`s beats 4th-qtr targets, raises 2003 view
SAN JOSE, Calif., Jan 16 (Reuters) - Web auctioneer eBay
Inc. on Thursday said its fourth-quarter net profit more than
tripled from a year earlier on higher sales, and boosted its
2003 earnings and revenue forecast.
EBay`s consolidated net income was $87 million, or 28 cents
per share, compared with $25.9 million, or 9 cents, in the
year-ago period. Excluding the amortization of goodwill and
other items, eBay had a profit of $87.6 million, or 28 cents a
share.
Net revenues nearly doubled to $413.9 million from $219.4
million.
The results handily beat eBay`s forecast fourth-quarter
earnings, before items, of 22 cents to 23 cents a share on
revenue of $372 million to $381 million.
Looking ahead, San Jose, California-based eBay raised its
2003 forecasts. The new view calls for revenues of up to $1.9
billion, $70 million higher than the upper end of its previous
forecast. The company also sees GAAP diluted earnings per share
of $1.12, or 7 cents above the high end of its previous
target.

AMD posts 4th qtr loss after restructuring charge
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Jan 16 (Reuters) - Advanced Micro
Devices Inc. (AMD.N) , the No. 2 maker of microprocessors, on
Thursday posted a fourth-quarter net loss after a restructuring
charge related to layoffs.
The company reported a net loss for the quarter of $854.7
million, or $2.49 a share, compared with a loss of $15.8
million, or 5 cents, a year earlier.
Excluding one-time items, including a $330.6 million
restructuring charge, AMD would have recorded fourth-quarter
loss per share of 68 cents.
On that basis, analysts had on average forecast AMD would
post a loss of 42 cents a share, in a range between a loss of
30 cents and loss of 59 cents, on revenue of $682.8 million,
according to Thomson First Call.
Sales fell to $686.4 million from $951.9 million a year
ago, the Sunnyvale, California-based company said.

Sun Microsystems Q2 net loss 72 cents/shr vs loss 13 cents
SANTA CLARA, CA (AFX) - Sun Microsystems Inc second quarter to end-Dec:
Revenues - 2.915 bln usd vs 3.108 bln
Net loss - 2.283 bln usd vs loss 431 mln
Net loss - 72 cents vs loss 13
Income before exceptional items - 10 mln usd vs loss 99 mln
EPS before exceptional items - nil vs loss 3 cents
The First Call/Thomson Financial consensus was for a loss per share of 2 cents.

IBM quarterly profit falls
ARMONK, N.Y., Jan 16 (Reuters) -
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
COMPARATIVE FINANCIAL RESULTS
(Dollars in millions except per share amounts)
Three Months Twelve Months
Ended December 31, Ended December 31,
Percent Percent
2002 2001 Change 2002 2001 Change
REVENUE
Global Services
$10,575 $9,061 16.7% $36,360 $34,956 4.0%
Gross margin 26.3% 28.2% 26.3% 27.5%
Hardware 8,136 8,029 1.3% 27,456 30,593 (10.3%)
Gross margin 31.2% 30.9% 27.1% 30.6%
Software 3,801 3,784 0.4% 13,074 12,939 1.0%
Gross margin 87.0% 85.2% 84.4% 82.5%
Global Financing
829 927 (10.5%) 3,232 3,426 (5.6%)
Gross margin 55.2% 55.4% 56.2% 50.6%
Enterprise Investments/
Other 343 340 1.1% 1,064 1,153 (7.7%)
Gross margin 32.9% 45.8% 42.6% 45.0%
TOTAL REVENUE
23,684 22,141 7.0% 81,186 83,067 (2.3%)
GROSS PROFIT
9,191 8,933 2.9% 30,284 31,889 (5.0%)
Gross margin 38.8% 40.3% 37.3% 38.4%
EXPENSE AND OTHER INCOME
S,G&A 5,440 4,698 15.8% 18,738 17,048 9.9%
% of revenue 23.0% 21.2% 23.1% 20.5%
R,D&E 1,204 1,241 (2.9%) 4,750 4,986 (4.7%)
% of revenue 5.1% 5.6% 5.9% 6.0%
Intellectual property
and custom development
income (329) (464) (29.1%) (1,100) (1,476) (25.5%)
Other (income)
and expense
116 (189) nm 227 (353) nm
Interest expense
48 53 (8.4%) 145 234 (37.9%)
TOTAL EXPENSE AND
OTHER INCOME
6,479 5,339 21.4% 22,760 20,439 11.4%
% of revenue 27.4% 24.1% 28.0% 24.6%
INCOME FROM CONTINUING
OPERATIONS BEFORE
INCOME TAXES
2,712 3,594 (24.5%) 7,524 11,450 (34.3%)
Pre-tax margin 11.4% 16.2% 9.3% 13.8%
Provision for
income taxes
801 1,029 (22.1%) 2,190 3,304 (33.7%)
Effective tax
rate 29.5% 28.6% 29.1% 28.9%
INCOME FROM CONTINUING
OPERATIONS
1,911 2,565 (25.5%) 5,334 8,146 (34.5%)
Net margin 8.1% 11.6% 6.6% 9.8%
DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
Loss from discontinued
operations
(893) (232) nm (1,755) (423) nm
NET INCOME
1,018 2,333 (56.4%) 3,579 7,723 (53.7%)
Preferred stock
dividends 0 0 0 10
NET INCOME
APPLICABLE TO COMMON
STOCKHOLDERS
1,018 2,333 (56.4%) 3,579 7,713 (53.6%)
EARNINGS/(LOSS)PER SHARE
OF COMMON STOCK
ASSUMING DILUTION
CONTINUING
OPERATIONS
1.11 1.46 (24.0%) 3.07 4.59 (33.1%)
DISCONTINUED
OPERATIONS
(0.52) (0.13) nm (1.01) (0.24) nm
TOTAL 0.59 1.33 (55.6%) 2.06 4.35 (52.6%)
BASIC
CONTINUING
OPERATIONS
1.12 1.49 (24.8%) 3.13 4.69 (33.3%)
DISCONTINUED
OPERATIONS
(0.53) (0.14) nm (1.03) (0.24) nm
TOTAL 0.60* 1.35 (55.6%) 2.10 4.45 (52.8%)
AVERAGE NUMBER OF
COMMON SHARES
OUTSTANDING (M`s)
ASSUMING
DILUTION 1,728.7 1,758.0 1,730.9 1,771.2
BASIC 1,699.1 1,722.4 1,703.2 1,733.3
nm - not meaningful
* Does not total due to rounding.

EBay Q4 net rises
Multex average estimate was $0.26/shr.
SAN JOSE, Calif., Jan 16 (Reuters) -
eBay Inc.
Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statement of Income
(U.S. Dollars in Thousands, Except Per Share Amounts)
Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
------------------ --------------------
2001 2002 2001 2002
------------------ --------------------
Net revenues $219,401 $413,928 $748,821 $1,214,100
Cost of net revenues 39,989 82,664 134,816 213,876
------------------ --------------------
Gross profit 179,412 331,264 614,005 1,000,224
------------------ --------------------
Operating expenses:
Sales and marketing 71,554 108,734 253,474 349,650
Product development 21,723 31,820 75,288 104,636
General and administrative 31,246 63,344 105,784 171,785
Payroll taxes on stock
options gains 881 1,379 2,442 4,015
Amortization of acquired
intangible assets 12,390 12,064 36,591 15,941
------------------ --------------------
Total operating expenses 137,794 217,341 473,579 646,027
------------------ --------------------
Income from operations 41,618 113,923 140,426 354,197
Interest and other income
(expense), net 7,186 24,092 41,613 49,209
Interest expense (722) (59) (2,851) (1,492)
Impairment of certain equity
investments -- -- (16,245) (3,781)
------------------ --------------------
Income before income taxes and
minority interests 48,082 137,956 162,943 398,133
Provision for income taxes (24,038) (48,935) (80,009) (145,946)
Minority interests 1,891 (2,025) 7,514 (2,296)
------------------ --------------------
Net income $ 25,935 $ 86,996 $ 90,448 $ 249,891
================== ====================
Net income per share:
Basic $ 0.09 $ 0.28 $ 0.34 $ 0.87
================== ====================
Diluted $ 0.09 $ 0.28 $ 0.32 $ 0.85
================== ====================
Weighted average shares:
Basic 274,599 308,644 268,971 287,496
================== ====================
Diluted 283,564 314,395 280,595 292,820
================== ====================

U.S. M-2 money supply down $18.4 bln Jan 6 week
NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - U.S. M-2 money supply fell by
$18.4 billion in the Jan. 6 week to $5,797.6 billion, the
Federal Reserve said.
The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was
$5,813.3 billion vs $5,816.5 billion in the previous week.
Following are the details of the money supply report, and
the Fed`s H.3 and H.4 reports:

One week ended January 6 (billions dlrs)
Latest Change Prev week Rvsd from
M-1....1,206.0 down...21.6 vs 1,227.6.....1,227.6
M-2....5,797.6 down...18.4 vs 5,816.0.....5,815.7
M-3....8,482.1 down...58.9 vs 8,514.0.....8,514.6
M-2 Avg 4 wks (Vs Wk ago)..5,813.3 vs...5,816.5

Monthly aggregates (Adjusted avgs in billions)
M-1 (Dec vs Nov)..........1,219.1 vs.....1,201.0
M-2 (Dec vs Nov)..........5,815.5 vs.....5,802.3
M-3 (Dec vs Nov)..........8,541.5 vs.....8,486.0

Federal Reserve`s H.3 and H.4 report:
Two Weeks Ended January 8 daily avgs-mlns (H.3)
Free Reserves.........rvsd...1,556 vs.rvsd.....2,468
Bank Borrowings.................36 vs.............57
Seasonal Loans..................29 vs.............48
Excess Reserves..............1,592 vs..........2,478
Required Reserves (Adj).....39,199 vs.........37,270
Required Reserves...........39,561 vs.........38,224
Total Reserves..............41,153 vs.........40,702
Non-Borrowed Reserves.......41,117 vs.........40,645
Monetary Base (Unadj)......702,780 vs........697,866

Two Weeks Ended January 8 daily avgs-mlns
Total Vault Cash.....rvsd...45,148 vs.........43,740
Inc Cash Equal to Req Res...31,963 vs.........30,288

One week ended January 15 (H4.1)
Bank Borrowings..................17 vs..........unch
Primary Credit....................6 up.............6
Secondary Credit................nil vs..........unch
Seasonal Credit..................11 down...........6
Adjustment Credit...............nil down..........10
Float..........................-250 down.........970
Balances/Adjustments.........11,127 up...........241
Currency....................676,353 down.......6,783
Treasury Deposits.............5,244 up...........415

One week ended January 15 - daily avgs-mlns
Fed bank credit.............693,039 down.......4,416
Treasuries held outright....629,416 vs..........unch
Agencies held outright...........10 vs..........unch
Repos.......................24,428 down.......3,965
Other Fed assets.............39,428 up...........529
Other Fed liabilities........19,738 up...........521
Other deposits with Fed.........210 down...........1
Foreign deposits................173 up............66
Gold stock...................11,043 vs..........unch
Custody holdings............859,411 vs.......859,867

Factors on January 15
Bank borrowings..................15 vs............18
Float..........................-466 vs........-1,013

Juniper Networks Q4 net
Thomson First Call average estimate was loss $0.01/shr.
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Jan 16 (Reuters) -
JUNIPER NETWORKS, INC.
PRO FORMA CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS(i)
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended Year Ended
December 31, December 31,
2002 2001 2002 2001
Revenues:
Product revenues $133,829 $133,058 $467,651 $830,899
Service revenues 21,437 17,975 78,896 56,123
Net revenues 155,266 151,033 546,547 887,022
Cost of revenues 63,092 58,783 230,108 332,903
Gross profit 92,174 92,250 316,439 554,119
Operating expenses:
Research and development
44,281 32,565 161,891 155,530
Sales and marketing 35,582 29,531 126,803 140,407
General and administrative
6,502 8,462 34,263 37,554
Total operating
expenses 86,365 70,558 322,957 333,491
Operating income (loss) 5,809 21,692 (6,518) 220,628
Interest income (expense), net
(1,794) 3,274 799 33,370
Equity in joint venture -- (1,515) (1,316) (4,076)
Income (loss) before
income taxes 4,015 23,451 (7,035) 249,922
Provision (benefit) for
income taxes 1,285 7,504 (2,251) 79,975
Net income (loss) $2,730 $15,947 $(4,784)$169,947
Basic net income (loss)
per share 0.01 0.05 (0.01) 0.53
Shares used in computing per
share information 372,511 323,570 350,695 319,378
Diluted net income (loss)
per share 0.01 0.05 (0.01) 0.50
Shares used in computing per
share information 382,504 338,841 350,695 340,768
NOTES: (i) The pro forma statements exclude the impact of the
contract manufacturer charge, amortization of purchased
intangibles, deferred stock compensation, restructuring and
other operating costs, in-process research and development,
integration costs, gains from debt extinguishment and losses on
equity investments in all applicable periods. See
reconciliation to GAAP information on page 5.
--Actual net income for the fourth quarter, which includes
amortization of purchased intangibles, a deferred
compensation credit and a change in an estimated restructuring
charge, was $8.5 million or $0.02 per share, compared with a
net loss of $5.1 million or $0.02 per share in the fourth
quarter of 2001.

Handspring Q2 net loss narrows on strong sales of new Treo PDA
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA (AFX) - Handspring Inc posted a second quarter net loss of 8 cents a share on a GAAP accounting basis, compared to a loss of 16 cents a year earlier, boosted by increased sales of its new Treo PDA/cell phone.
On a pro forma basis, excluding amortization of deferred stock compensation and intangibles, the company reported a second quarter net loss of 7 cents a share, against a loss of 12 cents a year ago.
The First Call/Thomson Financial consensus was for second quarter loss per share of 8 cents on revenues of 55.85 mln.
Revenues for the quarter were 47.8 mln usd, down from 70.5 mln usd a year earlier.

Microsoft posts higher qtrly profit, splits stock
REDMOND, Wash., Jan 16 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O)
on Thursday posted quarterly sales and earnings that
outstripped its own forecast and Wall Street expectations as a
new software licensing plan lifted revenues, and announced a
two-for-one stock split.
It also announced its first-ever dividend of 16 cents per
share, before the split, since going public in 1986.
Microsoft reported a net profit of $2.55 billion, or 47
cents per share for its fiscal second quarter ended Dec. 31, up
from $2.28 billion, or 41 cents per share a year earlier.
The Redmond, Washington-based software giant had forecast a
profit of 45 or 46 cents, while analysts polled by Thomson
First Call had been expecting 46 cents per share on average.
Revenue was $8.54 billion, a record high, in the middle of
Microsoft`s own forecast range of revenue between $8.5 billion
and $8.6 billion and higher than the $7.74 billion reported a
year earlier.

schrieb am 18.01.03 16:49:20

Beitrag Nr. 129 ()

Und hier die Zahlen vom Freitag:

Freitag 17.01.03

05:30 Japan Industrieproduktion Nov (endg…

00:50 Japan Großhandelspreise Dezember -0,1% gg Vm, -1,2% gg Vj
10:05 Japan Industrieproduktion November endg. -1,6% gg Vm, 5,1% gg Vj
10:08 Italien Industrieproduktion November endg. 0,8% gg Vm, 1,2% gg Vj
12:00 EU Industrieproduktion November Eurozone: +1,0% gg Vm, +3,0% gg Vj EU-15: +0,9% gg Vm, +2,2% gg Vj
14:30 USA Handelsbilanz November -40,1 Mrd. USD (erw. -36,4 Mrd.)
15:15 USA Industrieproduktion Dezember -0,2% gg Vm (erw. 0,2%)
15:15 USA Kapazitätsauslastung Dezember 75,4% gg Vm (erw. 75,7%)
15:49 USA Uni Michigan Verbrauchervertrauen Januar vorl. 83,7 (erw. 87,0)
16:30 USA ECRI Leading Index Drops to 119.6 in 1/10 Wk; Growth -1.8%

Und von der Woche noch eine Zusammenstellung der Unternehmenszahlen (kann sein das hier einige Tage abweichen, aber es kommt ja auf die Zahlen an):

COMPANY NAME QTR EPS erwartet EPS actual DIFF in Prozent
Monatag:
Rambus Inc. Q1 0.05 0.06 N/A

Dienstag:
Intel Corp. Q4 0.14 0.16 14.30%

Linear Technology Q2 0.17 0.18 5.90%

Teradyne Inc. Q4 -0.22 -0.20 N+

Mittwoch:
Continental Airlines Q4 -1.94 -1.67 N+

Apple Computer Inc. Q1 0.03 0.03 N/A
Symantec Corp Q3 0.39 0.47 20.5%

Yahoo! Inc. Q4 0.06 0.08 N/A

Donnerstag:
Abbott Laboratories Q4 0.56 0.55 -1.8%

General Motors Corp. Q4 1.53 1.62 5.9%

Advanced Micro Device Q4 -0.42 -0.68 N-

Delta Air Lines Inc. Q4 -2.30 -1.90 N+

eBay Inc. Q4 0.24 0.28 16.70%

Handspring Inc. Q2 -0.08 -0.07 N+

Int`l Business Machine Q4 1.30 1.34 3.10%

Juniper Networks, Inc Q4 -0.01 0.01 N+

Microsoft Corp. Q2 0.46 0.53 15.20

Sun Microsystems Inc. Q2 -0.02 0.00 N+

Freitag:
General Electric Co. Q4 0.31 0.31 0.00%

Legende:
N/A Not applicable or some data necessary for calculation
is not available.
N+ Actual EPS is larger than Mean estimate. Mean estimate
is negative or zero.
N- Actual EPS is smaller than Mean estimate. Mean
estimate is negative or zero.

Kurzer Kommentar zur Woche:
Wie man sieht haben die meisten Unternehmen gar nicht mal so schlechte Zahlen aufweisen können. Dennoch fällt der Index! Das liegt vor allem an den verhaltenen Ausblicken die die Unternehmen gegeben haben. Einige ziehen es nun sogar vor gar keine Ausblicke zu geben, was der Markt nicht mag und abstraft. Ich will diese Woche daher mal provokanter weise als Sell-on-good-news-Woche sehen.

Montag kamen die Zahlen zu den Großhandelspreisen in Deutschland, die nicht so stark stiegen wie erwartet, dieses ist aus sieht des Konsums positiv zu sehen. Gegen Nachmittag trübte dann der KC Fed Index die Stimmung mit den schlechten Daten zu dem verarbeitenden Gewerbe im Dezember und lieferte schon mal einen weiteren Vorgeschmack für kommende Dezember Zahlen.

Dienstag war mal wieder ein recht positiver Tag mit guten Daten vom Einzelhandel. Was doch sehr überraschte, und auch immer noch überrascht, wenn man diese Woche noch einmal im Rückblick sich anschaut. Der Richmond Fed Index enttäuschte nicht was die neuen Orders anging. Aber was den Service Sector und die Umsätze und Margen angeht, ging hier wieder mal die Warnleuchte an. Was aber nicht verwunderlich war, denn es handelte sich um Dezmeber Zahlen, und wir alle wissen was für Sonderangebote es dieses Mal zu den Festtagen gab. Intel überraschte dann mit positiven Zahlen, enttäuschte aber kurz danach mit einem pessimistischen Ausblick.

Mittwoch war es dann durch gute Vorgaben heftig gestiegen, das viele gleich Gewinne mitgenommen haben, schließlich hat auch keiner erwartet das die am Mittag kommenden Zahlen aus dem November und Dezember weiter positives liefern konnten. Auch das Beige Book konnte die pessimistischen Ausblicke der Technologie Unternehmen vom Mittwoch nicht aufhellen. Dazu kam das das Öl nicht wie von vielen erhofft im Preis fiel. Schließlich hat die OPEC die Förderquote erhöht. Nein es stieg noch kräfig weiter, besonders an den Tankstellen in Deutschland. Die BP erhöhte um 3 Cent je Liter, und die anderen Unternehmen zogen gerne nach.

Donnerstag war ein sehr gemischter Tag. Die Arbeitsmarktdaten, die ich für sehr wichtig halte waren sehr gut!!! Die Phily Fed Umfrage, die ja den Januar betrifft war auch recht positiv, doch die Unternehmen wollten keine positiven Ausblicke abgeben. Und es waren einige Schwergewichte die hier Zahlen zu berichten hatten. AMD enttäuschte sehr, die anderen Firmen enttäuschten nicht, wurden aber nicht zuletzt wegen der Spannungen im Irak weiter abverkauft.

Freitag war dann ein Tag, der die Verkäufer bestärkte, das sie das richtige getan haben. Der Leading Index fiel leicht. Der Michigan Index war schwächer, die Produktionsauslastung fiel und Japan hat immer noch mit der Deflation zu kämpfen.

Stundenchart Dax der letzten 10 Tage:

schrieb am 18.01.03 20:35:41

Beitrag Nr. 130 ()

19:00 Deadline for weekly tenders on $17 billion in U.S. Treasury 3-month bills and $15 billion in 6-month bills.

MAN Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen Daten zur Auftragslage in 2002

Ford Motor Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,48 R 0,07
Motorola Q4 EPS: zR -0,04 R 0,10
RF Micro Devices Q3 EPS: zR 0,02 R 0,05
J&J Q4+Analystenkonferenz 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,39 R 0,47
3M Q4+Analystenkonferenz 15:00 Uhr EPS: zR 1,01 R 1,28
Citigroup Inc Q4+Analystenkonferenz 18:00Uhr EPS: zR 0,69 R 0,46
Xilinx Q3+Analystenkonferenz 23:00 Uhr EPS: 0,07 R 0,12

Mittwoch 22.01.03

00:00 OECD Chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis to address ISAE economic seminar in Rome
00:00 ABC/Money Magazine weekly survey of U.S. consumer confidence. zR -21
00:00 USA Fannie Mae to sell $4 to $8 billion in 3-mo bills and $1.5 to $4 billion in 6-month bills.
06:00 Japan Bank of Japan - Zinsentscheidung
08:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Bauhauptgewerbe November m/m zR -3,6%
08:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Bauhauptgewerbe November y/y zR -8,3%
10:30 Bank of England MPC Januar Sitzungsprotokoll
12:00 EMU Dec Final HICP data (Konsumentenpreisindex)
12:00 Großbritannien Jan CBI industrial trends data
13:00 USA MBA applications survey for Jan. 17 week. zR -2,4% auf 1154,3
13:45 USA BTM-UBSW Store Sales for Jan. 18 week. zR +0,3%
14:55 USA Redbook average for Jan. 18 week. zR +0,9%
15:30 National Association of Manufacturers to issue 2003 economic and manufacturing forecast, in Washington.
16:00 American Bankers Association advisory committee to present 2003 monetary policy predictions, in Washington.
20:00 USA Finanzhaushaltssalo December. zR -59.1 Mrd. USD R +5.0 Mrd. USD C +9,0 Mrd. USD A +4,0 Mrd. USD
Dec-01: +26.6 Mrd. USD

10:00 TUI vorläufige Zahlen zu Q4 und erste Einschätzungen für 2003

Altera Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,03 R 0,06
Eastman Kodak Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,12 R 0,68
Merrill Lynch Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,48 R 0,64
Pfizer EPS: zF 0,34 F 0,47
Siebel Systems Q4 EPS: zR 0,13 R 0,04
Texas Instruments Q4 EPS: zR -0,06 R 0,03
American Airlines Quartalszahlen
Motorola Analystenkonferenz 14:00 Uhr
Lucent Q3+Analystenkonferenz um 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR -0,23 R -0,21
Tyco Q3+Analystenkonferenz 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,60 R 0,32
JP Morgan Charse Q4+Analystenkonferenz 17:00 Uhr EPS: zR 0,12 R -0,09
Qualcomm Q3+Analystenkoferenz um 23:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,23 R 0,37

Donnerstag 23.01.03

00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzentenpreisindex (m/m) zR -0.1%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzentenpreisindex (y/y) zR +0.5%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzentenpreisindex 6-Monatsrate zR unch%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember Bavaria CPI (m/m) zR +0.2%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember Bavaria CPI (y/y) zR +1.5%

08:00 Deutschland Produzentenpreis-Index NSA Dezember m/m zR -0,2 sR -0,2 bis +0,4 R +0,2
08:00 Deutschland Produzentenpreis-Index NSA Dezember y/y zR +0,4 sR +0,5 bis +1,1 R +0,8
10:30 Großbritannien Einzelhandelsumsätze" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Der Fahrplan für eine zahlenreiche nächste Woche bei den einzelnen Unternehmen:
Wie beim Letzten Mal habe ich die Erwartungen oder die letzten Werte mit dazu geschrieben. Diese Angaben sind selbstverständlich wie alle anderen auch immer selbst zu überprüfen.

Sonntag oder Montag: U.N. Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix and IAEA director general Mohamed ElBaradei to visit Baghdad.

Montag 20.01.03

Today U.S. marktes including fixed income markets are closed (Martin Luther King Day)

06:00 Japan revised leading indicators for November
08:00 Deutschland Veröffentlichung Umsatz und Beschäftigte im verarbeitenden Gewerbe und im Bergbau für November
08:00 Ausgaben Tabackwaren 2002
10:30 German Industry Assn BDI(=Bundesverband der Deutschen Industire) presents 2003 economic outlook
10:30 Großbritannien Dec Motor vehicle production data
12:00 Bundesbank to release monthly report for January
14:30 German Finance Minister Hans Eichel and UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to hold press conference in Berlin.

Infineon Q3 R -69 Mio EBIT

Dienstag 21.01.03

00:00 Bank of Japan policy board meeting
00:00 SEMI book-to-bill ratio for December zR 0,79
08:45 France December Consumer spending on manufacturing goods data
09:00 Ecofin meeting of EU-15 Finance Ministers in Brussels.
09:00 Italy Nov Industrial Orders
09:30 Italy ISAE Jan sa consumer confidence index
10:00 Infineon HV in München
10:30 German Wholesale and Export Assn BGA presents 2003 economic outlook
10:30 Großbritannien Einzelhandelspreise Dezember
10:30 Großbritannien Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember
10:30 Großbritannien Nov Machine tool orders data
11:00 Zentrum für Wirtschaftsforschung gibt einen Konjunkurbericht (=ZEW)
11:00 Deutschland ZEW current conditions index Janaur zR -95.4 (-1.3 pts)
11:00 Deutschland ZEW current expectations index Januar zR +0,6 (-3,6 pts) sR -5,0 bis +7,0 R 0.0
12:00 EMU Nov Foreign Trade (prel) date und revidierte Bilanz für Oktober
14:30 USA housing starts for December zR 1.697 Mio. R 1.700 Mio. C 1693 Mio. A 1700 Mio.
14:30 USA housing building permits for December zR 1.738 Mio. C 1700 Mio. A 1725 Mio.
15:30 Senate Democrats to hold hearing on the Bush economic plan, in Washington.
15:40 Deadline for weekly tenders on $1 billion in U.S. Freddie Mac 1-month Reference Bills, $1 billion in 2-month bills and $1 billion in 3-mo bills.
18:00 Washington Society of Investment Analysts to host luncheon panel entitled "Tips on TIPS" inflation-indexed Treasury securities, with Timothy Bitsberger, Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance, in Washington.
19:00 Deadline for weekly tenders on $17 billion in U.S. Treasury 3-month bills and $15 billion in 6-month bills.

MAN Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen Daten zur Auftragslage in 2002

Ford Motor Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,48 R 0,07
Motorola Q4 EPS: zR -0,04 R 0,10
RF Micro Devices Q3 EPS: zR 0,02 R 0,05
J&J Q4+Analystenkonferenz 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,39 R 0,47
3M Q4+Analystenkonferenz 15:00 Uhr EPS: zR 1,01 R 1,28
Citigroup Inc Q4+Analystenkonferenz 18:00Uhr EPS: zR 0,69 R 0,46
Xilinx Q3+Analystenkonferenz 23:00 Uhr EPS: 0,07 R 0,12

Mittwoch 22.01.03

00:00 OECD Chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis to address ISAE economic seminar in Rome
00:00 ABC/Money Magazine weekly survey of U.S. consumer confidence. zR -21
00:00 USA Fannie Mae to sell $4 to $8 billion in 3-mo bills and $1.5 to $4 billion in 6-month bills.
06:00 Japan Bank of Japan - Zinsentscheidung
08:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Bauhauptgewerbe November m/m zR -3,6%
08:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Bauhauptgewerbe November y/y zR -8,3%
10:30 Bank of England MPC Januar Sitzungsprotokoll
12:00 EMU Dec Final HICP data (Konsumentenpreisindex)
12:00 Großbritannien Jan CBI industrial trends data
13:00 USA MBA applications survey for Jan. 17 week. zR -2,4% auf 1154,3
13:45 USA BTM-UBSW Store Sales for Jan. 18 week. zR +0,3%
14:55 USA Redbook average for Jan. 18 week. zR +0,9%
15:30 National Association of Manufacturers to issue 2003 economic and manufacturing forecast, in Washington.
16:00 American Bankers Association advisory committee to present 2003 monetary policy predictions, in Washington.
20:00 USA Finanzhaushaltssalo December. zR -59.1 Mrd. USD R +5.0 Mrd. USD C +9,0 Mrd. USD A +4,0 Mrd. USD
Dec-01: +26.6 Mrd. USD

10:00 TUI vorläufige Zahlen zu Q4 und erste Einschätzungen für 2003

Altera Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,03 R 0,06
Eastman Kodak Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,12 R 0,68
Merrill Lynch Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,48 R 0,64
Pfizer EPS: zF 0,34 F 0,47
Siebel Systems Q4 EPS: zR 0,13 R 0,04
Texas Instruments Q4 EPS: zR -0,06 R 0,03
American Airlines Quartalszahlen
Motorola Analystenkonferenz 14:00 Uhr
Lucent Q3+Analystenkonferenz um 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR -0,23 R -0,21
Tyco Q3+Analystenkonferenz 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,60 R 0,32
JP Morgan Charse Q4+Analystenkonferenz 17:00 Uhr EPS: zR 0,12 R -0,09
Qualcomm Q3+Analystenkoferenz um 23:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,23 R 0,37

Donnerstag 23.01.03

00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzentenpreisindex (m/m) zR -0.1%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzentenpreisindex (y/y) zR +0.5%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzentenpreisindex 6-Monatsrate zR unch%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember Bavaria CPI (m/m) zR +0.2%
00:00 Deutschand Dezember Bavaria CPI (y/y) zR +1.5%

08:00 Deutschland Produzentenpreis-Index NSA Dezember m/m zR -0,2 sR -0,2 bis +0,4 R +0,2
08:00 Deutschland Produzentenpreis-Index NSA Dezember y/y zR +0,4 sR +0,5 bis +1,1 R +0,8
10:30 Großbritannien Einzelhandelsumsätze
14:10 Schaukochen mit Ministerin Künast => ob das live übertragen wird???
14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe zR -32K auf 360K R +35 auf 395K A +25 auf 385K
16:00 USA Frühindikatoren Dezember zR +0,7% R 0,0% A -0,1%
22:30 USA Januar Money Supply (M2) zR -18.4 Mrd. USD

00:00 Deutschland Konsumentenpreisindex Januar (preliminary) m/m zR +0,1 sR +0,4 bis +0,9 R +0,7
00:00 Deutschland Konsumentenpreisindex Januar (preliminary) y/y zR +1,1 sR +0,6 bis +1,1 R +0,9
=> Die Zeit hier ist unklar, meist kommt der Gesamtindex am Freitag und die Bundesländer kleckern am Donnerstag rein.

07:30 Siemens Q1 Zahlen
10:00 Siemens HV
Alcoa Analystenkonferenz
Amazon Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,09 R 0,14
AT&T Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,25 R 0,71
JDS Uniphase Q2+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,02 R -0,05
KLA-Tencor Q2+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,25 R 0,14
KLM Q3
McDonalds Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR 0,34 R 0,25
Nokia Q4
Nortel Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,16 R -0,06
PMC-Sierra Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,15 R -0,07
Novartis Q4
SAP Q4

Freitag 24.01.03

Italien Einzelhandelsumsätze
00:50 Japan Produzentenpreis-Index
06:00 Japan Monatsbericht der Bank of Japan
08:00 Deutschland Außenhandelspreise für Dezember und das Gesamtjahr
08:00 Deutschland Importpreise Dezember NSA m/m zR -1,4 sR -0,5 bis +1,1 R +0,4
08:00 Deutschland Importpreise Dezember NSA y/y zR -0,6 sR -0,9 bis +0,7 R -0,1
08:00 Deutschland Importpreise Dezember ex-oil (NSA,m/m) zR -0.2%
08:00 Deutschland Importpreise Dezember ex-oil (NSA,y/y) zR -1.4%
08:00 Deutschland Exportpreise Dezember (NSA, m/m) zR -0.1%
08:00 Deutschland Exportpreise Dezember (NSA, y/y) zR +0.5%
08:00 Deutschland Umsatz Verarbeitendes Gewerbe
08:50 Frankreich Konsumentenpreis-Index (revidiert)
10:30 Großbritannien BIP
16:30 USA 17-Januar ECRI Leading Index
19:00 Deutschland Verfall von Optionen auf Renten Futures an der Eurex

Wann auch immer die Daten kommen in den nächsten 5 Tagen ab heute.
00:00 Deutschland Dezember BBK import prices (SA, m/m) -1.0%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember BBK import prices (SA, y/y) -0.6%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Hesse CPI (m/m) +0.1%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Hesse CPI (y/y) +1.3%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember N Rhine-Wphalia CPI (m/m) +0.1%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember N Rhine-Wphalia CPI (y/y) +1.1%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Baden-Wuerttembg CPI (m/m) +0.2%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Baden-Wuerttembg CPI (y/y) +1.4%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Brandenburg CPI (m/m) unch
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Brandenburg CPI (y/y) +0.5%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Saxony CPI (m/m) +0.1%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Saxony CPI (y/y) +0.5%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Prel NSA CPI (m/m) +0.1% (p) +0.7%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Prel NSA CPI (y/y) +1.1% (p) +0.9%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Prel NSA HICP (m/m) +0.1% (p)
00:00 Deutschland Dezember Prel NSA HICP (y/y) +1.1% (p)
00:00 Deutschland Dezember BBK preliminary SA CPI (m/m) unch
00:00 Deutschland Dezember BBK preliminary SA CPI (y/y) +1.1%
00:00 Deutschland Dezember BBK SA CPI 6M Rate +0.5%

SAP Pressekonferenz
Porsche Q4 und Hauptversammlung um 10:00 Uhr
Lockheed Martin Q4+Analystenkonferenz um 17:00 Uhr EPS: zR 0,67 R 0,80
Raytheon Q4 EPS: zR 0,40 R 0,65

Legende:
z => die letzten Zahlen die ich dort habe `z` wie zuvor
s => Spannweite einer Umfrage
C => Erwartung Consensus
R => Erwartungen Reuters Median
F => Erwartungen Forbes
A => Erwartung andere Quellen
SA => an die Periode angepaßte Zahlen

Zusammensetzungen:
zR => letzte Zahl diesbezüglich von Reuters
zA => letzte Zahl diesbezüglich aus anderen Quellen
sR => Spannweite der Umfragen von Reuters

schrieb am 18.01.03 21:00:08

Beitrag Nr. 131 ()

Danke für die informativen Hinweise die Du hier immer gibts
@ alterBekanter :kiss:

schrieb am 19.01.03 01:28:47

Beitrag Nr. 132 ()

17-01-03 10:33 Metal update

Yesterday`s reaction of the gold market to rising tension in Iraq is an illustration of what has been and what will drive the yellow metal. Objectively the news was not very surprising, yet the markets appear to consider that it represents an increase in the probability of war in the near term. Look for gold to trade in an even more volatile manner today ahead of the US long weekend.
Gold: News: China`s central bank has granted approval to Bank of China, or BOC, to import and export gold, marking the first time a commercial bank has been allowed to purchase gold from the overseas market, a BOC official said Friday. In the past, Chinese commercial banks normally weren`t allowed to import and export gold, though they were allowed to trade gold in the international markets. China`s central bank was the nation`s sole gold importer and exporter up until the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange Oct. 30 last year. Since the central bank withdrew from the import and export market for gold when the Shanghai bourse debuted, no Chinese commercial banks have obtained government approval for such activities except BOC (Dow Jones).
Trading: In New York gold opened near the lows and found support around the $350 level before the market traded higher, taking out the $352 resistance level and then later testing the $355 level a few times, but without success. Once the news of empty poison gas artillery shells in Iraq broke, gold traded quickly higher on speculative buying. The metal had rather a nasty close with interbank spreads blowing out to a dollar and a half as more buy stops were triggered. In Asia gold trading was much more orderly and decent Tocom general public selling was noted, estimated at about 200k, which kept a lid on gold. The metal traded higher again in early European hours, however, as traders reacted to further dollar weakness.
Options: A mixed day in options yesterday. Professionals attempted to sell into the initial rise (pre the gas shell discovery) in gold but once spot gold broke through the previous highs of the rally gold vols firmed again to remain unchanged ahead of the long weekend.<p>View: Rising war threats and a weak dollar have driven gold higher and could see the metal firm further. Rising scrap supply, especially from countries that are not benefiting from the dollar weakness, is one sign that further buying will be required for gold to make further gains.
Silver: Trading: In New York, silver trading was completely uneventful until gold took-off, which led to a short, sharp, 5c rally. Silver held onto these gains in light Asian trading.
View: Silver will benefit from the weaker US dollar (as will all dollar-denominated commodities), but since silver`s applications are largely industrial in nature the metal will continue to be hit by slowing economic activity.
Platinum Group Metals: News: South Africa`s Two Rivers Platinum Ltd said on Friday it had signed a memorandum of understanding to sell 25 percent of Two Rivers to a group of black empowerment investors. South African mining firms Anglovaal Mining and Impala Platinum Holdings recently formed Two Rivers to manage and operate a new mine on the eastern limb of the Bushveld complex. The agreement will see the TISO consortium acquire 25 percent of Two Rivers, with Avmin holding 41.25 percent and Implats holding 33.75 percent. Financial details of the proposed transaction were not disclosed. The mine is expected to produce 200,000 ounces of platinum group metals a year and create 984 jobs. The capital cost is estimated at one billion rand (Reuters).
Comment: Some light borrowing in platinum was followed by firmness in the spot price yesterday as the metal quickly reversed the recent losses and is back above $620/oz. Palladium remains weak and appears comfortable below $250/oz.

==> Recht interessant für die Kapitalströme wie ich finde. Schließlich ist China im Sicherheitsrat.

schrieb am 19.01.03 23:01:16

Beitrag Nr. 133 ()

**********************************************************
********************Montag 20.01.03********************
**********************************************************

Infineon Q3 Zahlen:

Schätzungen für Q1 in Mio. EUR
Sales: 1,133 Mio. EUR bis 1,615 Mio. EUR / Durchschnitt 1,513 Mio. EUR / Median 1,527 Mio. EUR
EBIT: -230 Mio. EUR bis 38 Mio. EUR / Durchschnitt -69 Mio. EUR / Median -63 Mio. EUR
NET: -187 Mio. EUR bis 38 Mio. EUR / Durchschnitt -61 Mio. EUR / Median -60 Mio. EUR
EPS: -0.76 EUR bis 0.05 EUR / Durchschnitt -0.10 EUR / Median -0.09

Vorjahresquartal Q1 2001/2002: Sales 1,034 Mio. EUR / EBIT -564 Mio. EUR / NET -331 Mio. EUR / EPS -0.48 EUR
vorangegangenes Quartal Q4 2001/2002: Sales 1,384 Mio. EUR / EBIT -292 Mio. EUR / NET -506 Mio. EUR / EPS -0.72 Mio. EUR

Kommentar: Im Vorjahr wurden 35% des Umsatzes durch DRAMs erzieht. Bei der letzten Konferenz hat Infineon erklärt sich mehr in Richtung eines Solutions Provider zu entwickeln. Weiterhin ist zu erwähnen das Infineon immer mehr dazu übergegangen ist schnelle DDR Chips zu produzieren. Was im Angesicht der Tatsache, daß die neuen Prozessoren von Intel DDR Chips ansteuren gut nachzuvollziehen ist.

06:00 Japan revised leading indicators for November
08:00 Deutschland Veröffentlichung Umsatz und Beschäftigte im verarbeitenden Gewerbe und im Bergbau für November
08:00 Ausgaben Tabackwaren 2002
10:30 German Industry Assn BDI(=Bundesverband der Deutschen Industire) presents 2003 economic outlook
10:30 Großbritannien Dec Motor vehicle production data
12:00 Bundesbank to release monthly report for January
14:30 German Finance Minister Hans Eichel and UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to hold press conference in Berlin.

Today U.S. marktes including fixed income markets are closed (Martin Luther King Day)

schrieb am 19.01.03 23:25:29

Beitrag Nr. 134 ()

RTL may take CNN`s stake in German TV news channel
FRANKFURT, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Europe`s biggest private
broadcaster RTL Group said on Sunday that it has an
agreement with AOL Time Warner which would allow RTL to acquire
a stake in in Germany`s leading rolling news television channel
n-tv currently held by CNN.
A spokesman for RTL said RTL and AOL Time Warner (AOL.N)
had granted each other preemptive rights for a stake but
declined to give details.
Without citing sources, German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung
said in an article to be published on Monday that RTL, which is
around 90 percent owned by German media giant Bertelsmann, could acquire a 50 percent in n-tv between Autumn
2004 and Spring 2007.
RTL bought a 47 percent stake in loss-making n-tv from
German publisher Holtzbrinck last year for around 100 million
euros. Berlin-based n-tv made an operating loss of 15 million
euros ($16 million) on sales of 72 million in 2001

Irak meldet laut Blix vier weitere Sprengköpfe
BAGDAD - Die Iraker haben nach Angaben von UNO-Chefinspektor Hans Blix den Fund
von vier weiteren Sprengköpfen gemeldet. Das sagte Blix am Sonntag gegenüber dem
US-Nachrichtensender CNN.
In der vergangenen Woche hatten UNO-Inspektoren bereits zwölf leere
Chemiewaffen-Sprengköpfe in einem Munitionsdepot gefunden. Das Weisse Haus hatte
den Fund als «beunruhigend und ernst» bezeichnet. Blix hatte dagegen erklärt:
«Es waren zwölf vergessene Sprengköpfe.»
Laut Mohamed El Baradei, Chef der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde (IAEA),
erzielten die UNO-Waffeninspektoren bei Geprächen in Irak nebst der Meldung der
Sprengköpfe weitere Fortschritte. Das Treffen mit Vertretern der irakischen
Führung sei konstruktiv gewesen. Die Gespräche, an denen auch Blix teilnimmt,
würden am Montag fortgesetzt.
El Baradei und Blix hatten Irak wiederholt unzureichende Kooperation
vorgeworfen. Sie wollten bei ihren Besuch in Bagdad auf eine bessere
Zusammenarbeit drängen und auf Lücken in dem irakischen Rüstungsbericht
hinweisen.
Unterdessen gingen weltweit am Wochenende hunderttausende Kriegsgegner auf die
Strasse, um für eine friedliche Lösung des Konflikts zu demonstrieren.
Die grösste Kundgebung fand in Washington statt, wo Zehntausende gegen die
Irak-Politik von US-Präsident George W. Bush demonstrierten. Auch in Brüssel,
Madrid und London demonstrierten hunderte von Menschen.

Kuwait says spy arrest shows Iraq has evil intent
(Recasts with Iraqi denial)
By Ghaida Ghantous
KUWAIT, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Kuwait said on Sunday its arrest
of a Kuwaiti soldier suspected of spying for Iraq showed that
Baghdad was planning "terrorist attacks" in Kuwait, but Iraq
denied the charge.
Kuwait announced the arrest of National Guard sergeant
Mohammad Hamad Fahd al-Juway`id on Friday and accused him of
spying for Baghdad, further inflaming tension between the two
Gulf War foes.
Kuwait is a key regional ally of Washington. More than
15,000 American troops are training on its soil for a possible
U.S.-led attack on Iraq, which Washington accuses of developing
weapons of mass destruction.
A Kuwaiti cabinet statement said the investigation into
Juway`id showed that Iraqi intelligence was plotting "terrorist
attacks and sabotage operations against vital facilities and
interests" on its territory.
"The cabinet strongly rejects and condemns these terrorist
acts and hostile plots, which prove the Iraqi regime continues
to harbour evil intentions towards Kuwait," the statement said,
urging citizens to be vigilant.
The cabinet statement gave no further details. Local
newspapers have said that Juway`id was born in Iraq.
Kuwait`s Interior Ministry has said Juway`id monitored the
movements of senior Kuwaiti officials and gave Iraq secret
security information that could aid terror attacks.
Iraq denied any link to Juway`id and said the allegation was
designed to damage its ties with other states in the Gulf
region.
"It is also an overt attempt to contribute to the American-
Zionist media campaign against the stability of the region, and
...the security of Iraq," a foreign ministry spokesman said in a
statement faxed to Reuters in Baghdad.
He said the claim "can be considered as a contribution to
provide a cover for the hostile American build up in the
region."
The United States is massing troops in the Gulf and
threatens to attack Iraq if it does not come clean about an
alleged arsenal of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
Iraq says it has no such weapons.
Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and occupied it for seven months
before being driven out by U.S.-led forces in the 1991 Gulf War.
Kuwaiti officials have said they believe Iraqi spies and
sleeper cells are active in Kuwait. But Information Minister
Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said he did not believe there were
major spying cells, and that Juway`id was an isolated case.

IPE Brent falls on speculation of solution on Iraq

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - IPE Brent futures fell on Friday
as speculation mounted that a war in oil-rich Iraq could be
defused by a coup or exile for President Saddam Hussein.
Dealers said an already jittery market was also digesting
conflicting reports on the impact of a seven-week-old strike in
major oil producer Venezuela.
By 1048 GMT front month March Brent was down 31
cents at $30.27 a barrel. In out-of-hours ACCESS trade U.S.
light sweet crude also fell 31 cents to $33.35.
Saudi Arabia has proposed to its allies that an amnesty be
offered to all but the most senior Iraqi government figures --
an attempt to encourage a Baghdad coup, a Gulf diplomat said on
Thursday.
In a variation of the same theme, German current affairs
magazine Der Spiegel said the Iraqi government was seeking
guarantees to allow Saddam and other Iraqi leaders to go into
exile. It said on its website that an African nation was being
considered.
But in a speech to mark the 12th anniversary of the 1991
Gulf war, Saddam said he had mobilised his army and drawn up a
plan to counter any invasion by the U.S., describing Western
forces as "crows of evil."
One dealer said: "The way he`s talking, prices will surely
push up again. Given the situation you`ve got to be covering the
shorts."
On Friday, U.N. weapons chief Hans Blix urged Baghdad to
show it had disposed of all its banned weapons.
"There is not yet confidence, there is not yet certainty
that all the chemical and biological weapons and missiles are
gone," he told a news conference.
On Thursday, U.N. inspectors in Iraq found empty warheads
designed to carry chemical warfare agents.
Iraq said the warheads were outmoded and not linked to a
banned weapons programme.
Dealers fear that war in Iraq would stretch oil supplies
already waekened by Venezuela`s crippling state oil workers`
which has slashed oil output from the world`s fifth largest
exporter by around 80 percent.
Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Thursday
that the country`s oil production had risen to 890,000 bpd but
striking workers said the figure was more like 500,000 bpd.
In its monthly oil market report, the International Energy
Agency said on Friday Venezuela will suffer a substantial
permanent loss of capacity because the strike has forced the
closure of ageing oilfields.
"Some fields will take at least one or two months to return
to previous production levels. Others face a permanent
production capacity loss currently estimated at around 400,000
bpd," the IEA said.
IPE February gas oil was down $2.75 at $259 a tonne.

schrieb am 19.01.03 23:28:42

Beitrag Nr. 135 ()

Venezuela can pump 2 mln bpd oil by end Jan.-Chavez
CARACAS, Venezuela, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez, fighting a 7-week-old opposition strike, said the
OPEC member country could restore oil output to 2 million
barrels per day by the end of January.
The government estimates current output near 1 million bpd,
while striking workers peg it at 650,000 bpd.
"We could reach 2 million barrels per day before the end of
the month," Chavez said in his weekly television program.

schrieb am 20.01.03 07:34:45

Beitrag Nr. 136 ()

Infineon Q1 loss narrows sharply, tops forecasts
FRANKFURT, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Germany`s Infineon
Technologies AG posted a sharply narrower first quarter
operating loss at the top end of analysts` forecasts on Monday
but said it expected tough conditions throughout the first half
of 2003.
Infineon (IFXGn.DE) , Europe`s second biggest semiconductor
maker, posted a loss before interest and tax (EBIT) of 31
million euros ($33.03 million) in the three months to the end of
December against a loss of 564 million a year earlier, while
sales were up 47 percent to 1.52 billion euros.
The group was expected to show an operating loss of 69
million euros for the first quarter to the end of December,
according to the average of forecasts from 32 analysts polled by
Reuters. Forecasts ranged from a profit of 38 million euros to a
loss of 230 million euros.
Sales were seen in a range between 1.133 billion and 1.615
billion euros at an average of 1.513 billion.

schrieb am 20.01.03 07:41:00

Beitrag Nr. 137 ()

Gute Zahlen für so eine saure Gurkenweihnachtszeit. Die Reaktion auf die Zahlen bleibt abzuwarten, da der Kurs ja schon bereits beträchtlich gefallen ist. Infineon scheint einige Peers outzuperformen, kann sich aber logischerweise dem Markt nicht entziehen. Dennoch will ich dieses unter gute News verbuchen, schließlich hätten die Zahlen auch deutlich schlechter als die Schätzungen sein können.
Da die Reaktion nicht sicher in einem sochen Markt vorauszusagen ist gibt es heute dafür ein:

schrieb am 20.01.03 09:06:38

Beitrag Nr. 138 ()

@alterbekannter

Grüße vom

Lipser :cool:

schrieb am 20.01.03 20:39:11

Beitrag Nr. 139 ()

Die weiteren Zahlen von Montag:

Japan Nov output down revised 1.6 pct m/m
TOKYO, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Japan`s industrial production fell
a revised 1.6 percent in November from the previous month,
slightly better than the preliminary reading of a 2.2 percent
fall, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.
The fall in November, which followed a 0.2 percent decline in
October, is in line with the widespread view that Japan`s output
is quickly losing steam as a slowdown in the global economy hits
exports and domestic demand falters.
Following is a breakdown of the November industrial
production figures, in percent (index base 1995):
_________________________________________________________________
-----------------------------------------------------------------
seasonally adjusted mth-on-mth NOV PRELIM OCT NOV INDEX
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Output -1.6 -2.2 -0.2 96.2
Shipments -0.8 -1.4 +0.9 101.4
Inventories -2.4 -2.5 +0.6 86.1
Inventory/shipment ratio +0.9 +0.6 -2.9 98.9
Capacity utilisation rate change -0.8 n/a -1.0 94.1
_________________________________________________________________

unadjusted year-on-year (in pct) NOV OCT
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Output +5.1 +5.4
Shipments +7.4 +7.4
Inventories -9.6 -8.8
Inventory/shipment ratio -13.6 -14.1
Capacity utilisation rate change +6.7 +6.9
_________________________________________________________________
-----------------------------------------------------------------

==> Es handelt sich hier um alte November Zahlen, die nun etwas nach unten korrigiert wurden. Nicht was einen vom Sockel hauen sollte. Die Zahlen sind nunmehr zu alt um ihnen den Daumen nach unten zu verleihen.

Infineon sees stable Q2 demand, no comment on memory chip pr…
MUNICH (AFX) - Infineon Technologies AG said it sees further stable
demand in most business areas in the second quarter, with demand for memory chips to rise slightly.
The company however declined to give a forecast for future memory chip
price developments -- its primary business area.
"We look with cautious optimism into the future and expect a further stable
development of demand in most segments... Infineon anticipates that the second
quarter of fiscal year 2003 will only see a slight increase of demand for memory
products," the company said following the release of first quarter results.
Infineon posted an EBIT loss of 31 mln eur in the first quarter to end December compared to a loss of 292 mln in the fourth quarter. This was at the upper end of analyst expectations, who forecast EBIT between a negative 138 mln and a positive 37.5 mln eur.
The group posted a net loss of 40 mln, down from a fourth quarter loss of 506 mln on sales of 1.52 bln eur, up 10 pct compared to the preceding quarter.
The memory products division posted first quarter EBIT of 29 mln eur after a
loss of 204 mln in the fourth quarter.

Im Grund eine gute Nachricht, die aber heute nicht hornoriert wurde. Viele Trader sind halt aktionistisch veranlagt, kaufen oder verkaufen, alles was dazwischen liegt kennen sie nicht.

Die Zahl der Beschäftigten ist im November um 3,3 % zum Vorj…

UK car production up nearly 10 pct in 2002
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Car production in Britain rose
nine percent last year to 1.63 million vehicles but remained
below the average of the previous few years, official figures
showed on Monday.
The Office for National Statistics said production fell
sharply in December alone, with just 97,500 cars built, well
down on the 139,000 built in November and 8.1 percent lower than
the figure for December 2001.
On a three-monthly basis, which irons out monthly
distortions, production was down a seasonally adjusted 14.3
percent in the fourth quarter of 2002 from the third and 1.6
percent lower than the same period in 2001.
The total production number of 1.63 million is below the
recent peak of 1.79 million in 1999 and well below the highest
ever total of 1.92 million back in 1972.
The bulk of British car output goes for export. Of the
97,500 cars built last month, 71,200 went abroad and only 26,300
were destined for the home market.
Earlier this month the Society of Motor Manufacturers and
Traders reported record car sales, as opposed to production,
last year of 2.56 million, driven by strong demand and falling
prices.
Imports accounted for almost two million of the total figure
for car sales last year, or 78 percent of the market.
Almost no volume car makers are British-owned any more. The
main UK-based manufacturers -- Honda, Jaguar, Land
Rover, MG Rover, MINI, Nissan, Peugeot
and Toyota -- are all foreign-owned except MG
Rover.
BMW, which four years ago acquired the Rolls Royce brand,
earlier this month unveiled a new Rolls at its gleaming new
purpose-built factory in southern England.
The SMMT has forecast that sales this year will fall by
about seven percent from the 2002 total to around 2.38 million
cars. Production is therefore likely to fall back too,
especially with many of the country`s main export markets weak.

zu verzeichnende Abschwächung weitgehend überwunden und nahezu
wieder Anschluss an den hohen Auftragsfluss im Frühjahr gefunden
werden." Der Abstand gegenüber der vergleichbaren Vorjahreszeit,
der im Sommer erstmals seit längerem wieder positiv geworden
war, habe sich auf etwas über fünf Prozent erhöht.
Weiter heißt es in dem Monatsbericht, Bremswirkungen der
Aufwertung des Euro insbesondere gegenüber dem US-Dollar seien
im Oktober/November "nicht zu erkennen" gewesen. Allerdings
begann der jüngste Euro-Anstieg mit Kursen über 1,02 Dollar erst
im Dezember. Die Nachfrage aus dem Inland habe im November zwar
das Vormonatsniveau nicht halten können, blieb aber nach Ansicht
der Bundesbank "befriedigend".
Nach vorläufigen Angaben des Bundeswirtschafts- und
Arbeitsministeriums hatte die deutsche Industrie im November
preis- und saisonbereinigt 1,7 Prozent mehr Bestellungen
erhalten. Dabei nahmen die Bestellungen aus dem Ausland zum
Vormonat um 4,3 Prozent zu, während die Orders aus dem Inland um
0,4 Prozent nachgaben." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Bundesbank - Abschwächung bei Auslandsaufträgen überwunden
Frankfurt, 20. Jan (Reuters) - Die Bundesbank hat den
jüngsten Anstieg der Auftragseingänge in Deutschland in ihrem
aktuellen Monatsbericht positiv bewertet.
Im Oktober und November hätten die Auslandsgeschäfte
saisonbereinigt gegenüber dem dritten Quartal 2002 um gut 2,5
Prozent zugenommen, heißt es im am Montag veröffentlichten
Bundesbank-Monatsbericht für Januar. "Damit konnte die im Sommer
zu verzeichnende Abschwächung weitgehend überwunden und nahezu
wieder Anschluss an den hohen Auftragsfluss im Frühjahr gefunden
werden." Der Abstand gegenüber der vergleichbaren Vorjahreszeit,
der im Sommer erstmals seit längerem wieder positiv geworden
war, habe sich auf etwas über fünf Prozent erhöht.
Weiter heißt es in dem Monatsbericht, Bremswirkungen der
Aufwertung des Euro insbesondere gegenüber dem US-Dollar seien
im Oktober/November "nicht zu erkennen" gewesen. Allerdings
begann der jüngste Euro-Anstieg mit Kursen über 1,02 Dollar erst
im Dezember. Die Nachfrage aus dem Inland habe im November zwar
das Vormonatsniveau nicht halten können, blieb aber nach Ansicht
der Bundesbank "befriedigend".
Nach vorläufigen Angaben des Bundeswirtschafts- und
Arbeitsministeriums hatte die deutsche Industrie im November
preis- und saisonbereinigt 1,7 Prozent mehr Bestellungen
erhalten. Dabei nahmen die Bestellungen aus dem Ausland zum
Vormonat um 4,3 Prozent zu, während die Orders aus dem Inland um
0,4 Prozent nachgaben.

Wachstumsaussichten in Deutschland für das laufende Jahr. Die
Arbeitslosenzahl am Ende des Winters werde bei 4,4 bis 4,5
Millionen und im Durchschnitt des Jahres 2003 bei über vier
Millionen liegen, sagte Rogowski. Die Bundesregierung will
Regierungskreisen zufolge ihre Wachstumsprognose von 1,5 auf ein
Prozent senken und geht im Jahresdurchschnitt von 4,2 Millionen
Arbeitslosen aus. Am meisten würden die Wachstumsaussichten von
der Frage belastet, ob es zu einem Krieg im Irak kommen werde,
sagte Rogowski. "Die Unsicherheiten sind hoch."

BDI: EUROKURS BEEINTRÄCHTIGT DEUTSCHEN EXPORT
Besorgt äußerte sich Rogowski über den Kurs des Euro, der am
Montagmittag bei rund 1,065 Dollar notierte. "Ja, diese
Entwicklung bereitet mir schon gewisse Sorge und ich hoffe, dass
es da kein Overshooting gibt", sagte der BDI-Präsident. Der
starke Euro beeinträchtige die deutsche Exportfähigkeit und
damit letztlich die Exporte. Die deutsche Exportindustrie spüre
die eine Aufwertung der europäischen Währung innerhalb eines
Jahres um 20 Prozent. Nach BDI-Angaben vermindert ein
Euro-Anstieg um zehn Prozent europaweit das Exportwachstum um
rund ein Prozent. Eine Senkung der Leitzinsen als Reaktion etwa
auf die Euro-Entwicklung hält Rogowski aber nicht für
vordringlich. "Die Geldpolitik kann nicht die falsche
Wirtschaftspolitik richten."
Für Deutschland forderte der Industrieverband umfassende
Reformen in Wirtschaft, Staat und Gesellschaft. "Die Stimmung
bei den Verbrauchern und der Wirtschaft, bei den Investoren, ist
genauso dramatisch abgestürzt wie die Umfrageergebnisse der
SPD", sagte Rogowski. Dazu habe die Regierung mit ihrer
Steuerpolitik maßgeblich beigetragen. Es gebe zwar Zeichen des
Umdenkens wie durch das jüngste Strategiepapier für Reformen aus
dem Bundeskanzleramt oder Pläne von Bundeswirtschaftsminister
Wolfgang Clement (SPD). "Wir sind noch weit weg, die Weichen
richtig gestellt zu haben", sagte Rogowski aber einschränkend.
Mit Blick auf die Reformvorschläge des BDI erklärte er:
"Unser Wachstumsziel liegt bei mindestens drei Prozent pro annum
und das deutlich vor 2010". Zentraler Teil der BDI-Vorschläge
sei ein Zurückdrängen des Staates. Zugleich müssten die
Staatsausgaben unter Kontrolle gehalten werden. Um die Rolle des
Staates zu begrenzen, bedürfe es eines deutlichen
Subventionsabbaus. Rogowski sprach sich für eine Kürzung der
Staatsbeihilfen bei Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden um pauschal zehn
Prozent aus. Ein Sprecher des Bundesfinanzministeriums sagte,
der BDI widerspreche sich, wenn er pauschale
Subventionskürzungen vorschlage, zugleich aber die Rücknahme des
so genannten Steuervergünstigungsabbaugesetzes fordere." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">BDI erwartet 2003 Wachstum von unter einem Prozent
Berlin, 20. Jan (Reuters) - Die deutsche Industrie erwartet
für das laufende Jahr nur ein schwaches Wirtschaftswachstum und
hat zu umfassenden Reformen aufgerufen, um noch vor 2010 in
Deutschland wieder Wachstumsraten von mindestens drei Prozent
pro Jahr erreichen zu können.
Der Präsident des Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Industrie
(BDI), Michael Rogowski, sagte am Montag in Berlin, er rechne
für 2003 mit einem Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsproduktes (BIP) von
nur unter einem Prozent. Ein leichter Aufschwung werde vor allem
von den USA getragen sein, komme aber nicht vor Jahresmitte.
Kurzfristig rechnet der BDI-Chef mit einem weiteren Anstieg des
Euro, was den deutschen und europäischen Export beinträchtigen
werde. Dennoch sei eine Leitzinssenkung der Europäischen
Zentralbank (EZB) derzeit nicht vordringlich, sagte Rogowski.
Der Industrieverband forderte die Bundesregierung zudem auf,
ihre Pläne zum Abbau von Steuervergünstigungen komplett
zurückzuziehen. Ziel der BDI-Vorschläge sei die Absenkung der
Staatsquote auf 40 von derzeit 48 Prozent, der Quote der
Sozialversicherungsbeiträge auf 35 von derzeit 42 Prozent sowie
des Spitzensteuersatzes auf 30 nach derzeit 48,5 Prozent.

MARGINALES WACHSTUM VON UNTER EINEM PROZENT ERWARTET
"Es wird unter einem Prozent liegen", sagte Rogowski zu den
Wachstumsaussichten in Deutschland für das laufende Jahr. Die
Arbeitslosenzahl am Ende des Winters werde bei 4,4 bis 4,5
Millionen und im Durchschnitt des Jahres 2003 bei über vier
Millionen liegen, sagte Rogowski. Die Bundesregierung will
Regierungskreisen zufolge ihre Wachstumsprognose von 1,5 auf ein
Prozent senken und geht im Jahresdurchschnitt von 4,2 Millionen
Arbeitslosen aus. Am meisten würden die Wachstumsaussichten von
der Frage belastet, ob es zu einem Krieg im Irak kommen werde,
sagte Rogowski. "Die Unsicherheiten sind hoch."

BDI: EUROKURS BEEINTRÄCHTIGT DEUTSCHEN EXPORT
Besorgt äußerte sich Rogowski über den Kurs des Euro, der am
Montagmittag bei rund 1,065 Dollar notierte. "Ja, diese
Entwicklung bereitet mir schon gewisse Sorge und ich hoffe, dass
es da kein Overshooting gibt", sagte der BDI-Präsident. Der
starke Euro beeinträchtige die deutsche Exportfähigkeit und
damit letztlich die Exporte. Die deutsche Exportindustrie spüre
die eine Aufwertung der europäischen Währung innerhalb eines
Jahres um 20 Prozent. Nach BDI-Angaben vermindert ein
Euro-Anstieg um zehn Prozent europaweit das Exportwachstum um
rund ein Prozent. Eine Senkung der Leitzinsen als Reaktion etwa
auf die Euro-Entwicklung hält Rogowski aber nicht für
vordringlich. "Die Geldpolitik kann nicht die falsche
Wirtschaftspolitik richten."
Für Deutschland forderte der Industrieverband umfassende
Reformen in Wirtschaft, Staat und Gesellschaft. "Die Stimmung
bei den Verbrauchern und der Wirtschaft, bei den Investoren, ist
genauso dramatisch abgestürzt wie die Umfrageergebnisse der
SPD", sagte Rogowski. Dazu habe die Regierung mit ihrer
Steuerpolitik maßgeblich beigetragen. Es gebe zwar Zeichen des
Umdenkens wie durch das jüngste Strategiepapier für Reformen aus
dem Bundeskanzleramt oder Pläne von Bundeswirtschaftsminister
Wolfgang Clement (SPD). "Wir sind noch weit weg, die Weichen
richtig gestellt zu haben", sagte Rogowski aber einschränkend.
Mit Blick auf die Reformvorschläge des BDI erklärte er:
"Unser Wachstumsziel liegt bei mindestens drei Prozent pro annum
und das deutlich vor 2010". Zentraler Teil der BDI-Vorschläge
sei ein Zurückdrängen des Staates. Zugleich müssten die
Staatsausgaben unter Kontrolle gehalten werden. Um die Rolle des
Staates zu begrenzen, bedürfe es eines deutlichen
Subventionsabbaus. Rogowski sprach sich für eine Kürzung der
Staatsbeihilfen bei Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden um pauschal zehn
Prozent aus. Ein Sprecher des Bundesfinanzministeriums sagte,
der BDI widerspreche sich, wenn er pauschale
Subventionskürzungen vorschlage, zugleich aber die Rücknahme des
so genannten Steuervergünstigungsabbaugesetzes fordere.

Leider hat es aber die Bundesregierung noch nicht ganz verstanden, und sie richtet weiter unseren Staat zu Grunde. Das komische ist, daß man immer wieder den Wortlaut antrifft: "Die Anderen hätten es auch nicht besser gemacht."

Für die Nachricht also ein:

Im Grunde aber nix neues...

schrieb am 20.01.03 20:41:22

Beitrag Nr. 140 ()

19:00 Deadline for weekly tenders on $17 billion in U.S. Treasury 3-month bills and $15 billion in 6-month bills.

MAN Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen Daten zur Auftragslage in 2002

Ford Motor Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,48 R 0,07
Motorola Q4 EPS: zR -0,04 R 0,10
RF Micro Devices Q3 EPS: zR 0,02 R 0,05
J&J Q4+Analystenkonferenz 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,39 R 0,47
3M Q4+Analystenkonferenz 15:00 Uhr EPS: zR 1,01 R 1,28
Citigroup Inc Q4+Analystenkonferenz 18:00Uhr EPS: zR 0,69 R 0,46
Xilinx Q3+Analystenkonferenz 23:00 Uhr EPS: 0,07 R 0,12" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">**********************************************************
*******************Dienstag 21.01.03*******************
**********************************************************

00:00 Bank of Japan policy board meeting
00:00 SEMI book-to-bill ratio for December zR 0,79
08:45 France December Consumer spending on manufacturing goods data
09:00 Ecofin meeting of EU-15 Finance Ministers in Brussels.
09:00 Italy Nov Industrial Orders
09:30 Italy ISAE Jan sa consumer confidence index
10:00 Infineon HV in München
10:30 German Wholesale and Export Assn BGA presents 2003 economic outlook
10:30 Großbritannien Einzelhandelspreise Dezember
10:30 Großbritannien Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember
10:30 Großbritannien Nov Machine tool orders data
11:00 Zentrum für Wirtschaftsforschung gibt einen Konjunkurbericht (=ZEW)
11:00 Deutschland ZEW current conditions index Janaur zR -95.4 (-1.3 pts)
11:00 Deutschland ZEW current expectations index Januar zR +0,6 (-3,6 pts) sR -5,0 bis +7,0 R 0.0
12:00 EMU Nov Foreign Trade (prel) date und revidierte Bilanz für Oktober
14:30 USA housing starts for December zR 1.697 Mio. R 1.700 Mio. C 1693 Mio. A 1700 Mio.
14:30 USA housing building permits for December zR 1.738 Mio. C 1700 Mio. A 1725 Mio.
15:30 Senate Democrats to hold hearing on the Bush economic plan, in Washington.
15:40 Deadline for weekly tenders on $1 billion in U.S. Freddie Mac 1-month Reference Bills, $1 billion in 2-month bills and $1 billion in 3-mo bills.
18:00 Washington Society of Investment Analysts to host luncheon panel entitled "Tips on TIPS" inflation-indexed Treasury securities, with Timothy Bitsberger, Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance, in Washington.
19:00 Deadline for weekly tenders on $17 billion in U.S. Treasury 3-month bills and $15 billion in 6-month bills.

MAN Veröffentlichung der vorläufigen Daten zur Auftragslage in 2002

Ford Motor Q4+Analystenkonferenz EPS: zR -0,48 R 0,07
Motorola Q4 EPS: zR -0,04 R 0,10
RF Micro Devices Q3 EPS: zR 0,02 R 0,05
J&J Q4+Analystenkonferenz 14:30 Uhr EPS: zR 0,39 R 0,47
3M Q4+Analystenkonferenz 15:00 Uhr EPS: zR 1,01 R 1,28
Citigroup Inc Q4+Analystenkonferenz 18:00Uhr EPS: zR 0,69 R 0,46
Xilinx Q3+Analystenkonferenz 23:00 Uhr EPS: 0,07 R 0,12

schrieb am 21.01.03 19:05:45

Beitrag Nr. 141 ()

Hmm, die Nachrichten wirken heute wieder mal besser als der Markt performt.... :confused:

schrieb am 21.01.03 19:10:34

Beitrag Nr. 142 ()

Nasdaq +0,6% und Infineon bei -4,27% und das obwohl sich Schuhmacher positiv geäußert hat. Das Öl wird wieder billiger und die Tankerschiffe von Venezuela haben den Streik beendet??? Aktuell der Dax bei 2875 Punkten.

schrieb am 22.01.03 18:23:48

Beitrag Nr. 143 ()

Kauf 1000 Infienon zu 7,02

schrieb am 22.01.03 18:31:40

Beitrag Nr. 144 ()

Depotabrechnung:
1000 IFX zu 7,02 zuzügl. 0,1% Provision: 7017,01 EUR

Kontostand alt: 11121 EUR
Kontostand neu: 4103,99 EUR (=11121 EUR - 7017,01 EUR)
Depotbestand: 1000 Infineon (Gewinnschwelle für diese Position: 7,04)

schrieb am 22.01.03 18:33:28

Beitrag Nr. 145 ()

Wo hast Du die denn gekauft? Zu 7,02 sind auf X 40 Stk. umgegangen :confused:

schrieb am 22.01.03 18:52:56

Beitrag Nr. 146 ()

http://db24rt1.teledata.de/chart/db2/dbr.html?timespan=t&sym…

==> Hier auf früher klicken.

schrieb am 22.01.03 22:38:24

Beitrag Nr. 147 ()

Altera rettet die Nasdaq nachbörslich wie es aussieht.

Dazu kommt das die Fed noch eine Menge Geld für morgen über hat, was die open Markt Operations angeht.

schrieb am 22.01.03 22:40:21

Beitrag Nr. 148 ()

Und Qualcom hat einen netten Ausblick.

schrieb am 23.01.03 07:38:49

Beitrag Nr. 149 ()

Siemens nennt Ergebnis für 1. Quartal
München, 23. Jan (Reuters) - 3 Monate zum 31. Dez 2002
Konzern (wenn nicht anders angegeben, alle Angaben in Mio EUR)

Aktuell Vorjahr Veränderung
in Prozent
Ergebnis nach Steuern 521 538 -3,2
EBIT 604 487 +24
Ergebnis je Aktie (EUR) 0,59 0,61 -3,3

schrieb am 23.01.03 07:40:31

Beitrag Nr. 150 ()

Erwartet war ein EBIT von 536 Mio.

schrieb am 23.01.03 23:10:27

Beitrag Nr. 151 ()

So ich bin mal wieder etwas in Verzug geraten. Hier mal die Aufarbeitung von Dienstag:

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts Decemb…

SAN JOSE, Calif., January 21, 2003 -- The North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $839 million in orders in December 2002 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.98, according to the December 2002 Express Report published today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.98 means that $98 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

The three-month average of worldwide bookings in December 2002 was $839 million. The bookings figure is eight percent above the revised November 2002 level of $777 million, yet 37 percent above the $614 million in orders posted in December 2001.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in December 2002 was $853 million. The billings figure is 13 percent below the revised November 2002 level of $976 million and five percent above the December 2001 billings level of $810 million.

"The increased bookings level suggests further capital equipment market stabilization. While the bookings figure is well below the peak levels in 2002, the bookings and billings figures are nearing parity, which is seen as a positive trend." said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "Growth in the semiconductor capital equipment business is anticipated to be on the order of 10 to 20 percent in 2003 on a worldwide basis."

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings(Three-month avg.) Bookings(Three-month avg.)Book-to-Bill
July 2002 969.1 1,181.9 1.22
August 2002 994.8 1,016.8 1.02
September 2002 1,044.6 831.6 0.80
October 2002 999.9 775.1 0.78
November 2002 (final) 976.4 776.7 0.80
December 2002 (prelim.) 853.2 839.2 0.98

The data contained in this release was compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks billings and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and orders of the chips themselves. The January 2003 Express Report is scheduled for publication on February 18, 2003 (subject to change).

Based in San Jose, Calif., SEMI is an international industry association serving more than 2,500 companies participating in the semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets.

==> Das sind super Nachrichten, wenn man sich das mal durch den Kopf gehen läßt, wie die Book-to-bill die letzen Monate war. Somit ist hier langsam eine Stabilisierung zu erreichen, und es besteht begründete Hoffung hier mal einen Boden zu erreichen.

French Dec consumer spending up 1.6 pct m/m
PARIS, Jan 21 (Reuters) - French consumer spending rose 1.6
percent month-on-month in December and was up 2.2 percent
versus December 2001, statistics office INSEE said on Tuesday.
A previously estimated 1.7 percent fall in November
was revised downwards to a 1.7 percent decrease.
The consensus forecast among economists polled by Reuters
was for November spending to rise 0.7 month-on-month,
with a wide range of minus 0.1 to plus 1.5, for a year-on-year
increase of 1.9 percent.
INSEE gave the following percentage changes for consumer
spending on manufactured goods (month-on-month unless stated).
Dec Nov Oct Sep Dec y/y
Total 1.6 -1.8 1.4 -0.9 2.2
Retail sector 1.7 -2.4 1.7 -1.9 2.1
Durable goods 0.3 0.2 1.3 0.6 2.1
- of which cars 3.0 -0.9 0.2 3.9 -0.6
- household equipment -1.7 0.8 2.4 -1.9 5.1
Textiles, leather 7.4 -8.7 1.2 -3.5 -0.2
Other 0.3 -0.3 1.7 -0.9 3.4
INSEE gave the following seasonally adjusted figures for
household spending on manufactured goods in billions of 1995
euros:
Dec Nov Oct Sept Dec 01
Total 17.28 17.00 17.32 17.07 16.91
Retail sector 11.84 11.65 11.94 11.73 11.60
Durable goods 6.32 6.30 6.29 6.21 6.19
- of which cars 2.77 2.69 2.72 2.71 2.79
Household goods 3.25 3.31 3.28 3.20 3.10
Textiles, leather 3.41 3.18 3.48 3.44 3.42
Other 7.55 7.53 7.56 7.43 7.30

==> Gute Nachrichten aus Frankreich, die Konsumenten haben im Dezember mehr ausgegeben.

Italy industry orders up 2.3 pct m/m in Nov
ROME, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Official statistics agency ISTAT on
Tuesday gave the following data on Italian industrial orders and
sales:

INDUSTRIAL ORDERS Nov 2002 Oct 2002 Nov 2001

Month on month change 2.3 pct -3.7 pct 0.3 pct

Adjusted index (1995=100) 115.8 113.0 112.6

Year on year change 1.2 pct -1.2 pct -6.0 pct

Index (1995=100) 113.3 120.3 112.0

Domestic demand 1.9 pct -3.7 pct -4.3 pct

Foreign demand 0.1 pct 2.9 pct -8.5 pct

INDUSTRIAL SALES

Month on month change 0.8 pct 0.2 pct -1.6 pct
Adjusted index (1995=100) 123.3 122.3r 117.0r

Year on year change 2.1 pct 2.8 pct -6.2 pct

Index (1995=100) 123.6 134.1 121.1

Domestic demand 1.4 pct 1.1 pct -5.3 pct

Foreign demand 3.5 pct 6.7 pct -8.2 pct

=> Die Italiener haben im November mehr Aufträge bekommen.

Italy consumers shrink further into depression-ISAE
ROME, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Italian consumer confidence dipped
in January to its lowest level in almost nine years, with
shoppers fretting about current high prices in the euro zone`s
third largest economy, research body ISAE said on Tuesday.
ISAE said its core index of confidence, which strips out
seasonal and other "erratic factors", slid to 106.3 this month
-- its lowest level since March 1994 -- from a downwardly
revised 107.3 in December.
"The proportion of people who perceived a marked increase in
prices at the moment... rose to 90 percent, from 89 percent in
December," said ISAE, an independent thinktank overseen by the
Treasury.
Earlier this month national statistics agency Istat
confirmed December inflation at its highest level since July
2001 -- coming in at 2.8 percent.
But consumer groups protest that official figures are a
woeful underestimate and prices are spiralling higher at a much
faster pace.
The consumer umbrella group Intesa has called for Italy`s
laws to be changed to make it a crime for shopkeepers to hike
their prices by more than three times the level of inflation.

Hier sieht man schon eine Diskrepanz zu den anderen Daten der Auftragslage. Subjektiv ist hier also deutliche Resignation zu spüren.

Euro zone posts Nov trade surplus of 9.9 bln euros
BRUSSELS, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The European Union statistics
office on Tuesday released the following data on euro zone trade
for November.
(all figures billions euros, unless stated):
JAN-NOV JAN-NOV PCT
EMU-12 NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL 2002 2001 CHANGE
EXPORTS 93.0 98.2 89.2 81.2 94.6 986.7 977.4 1%
IMPORTS 83.1 88.8 80.3 71.2 80.7 891.5 936.6 -5X%
BALANCE 9.9 9.4 8.9 9.9 13.9 95.2 40.7 N/A
By major trading partner (in billions of euro):
TRADE BALANCE
2002 2001
JAN-OCT JAN-OCT
United Kingdom 51.6 40.7
United States 46.4 35.0
Switzerland 9.9 11.9
Japan -16.3 -21.2
Sweden 2.3 2.0
China -26.3 -26.9
Poland 7.6 7.2
Russia -12.5 -16.2
Czech Republic 1.7 2.2
Hungary 0.0 -0.6

By product category (in billions of euro):
TRADE BALANCE
2002 2001
JAN-OCT JAN-OCT
RAW MATERIALS -106.6 -119.3
- food, drink 5.3 4.3
- crude materials -19.7 -23.3
- energy -92.2 -100.3
MANUFACTURED GOODS 190.9 156.8
-chemicals 51.8 45.8
-machines,vehicles 115.8 99.7
-other goods 23.3 11.3
OTHER 0.9 -3.2

=> Gute News, aber zu alt um ihr den Daumen nach oben zu verleihen.

US DEC HOUSING STARTS +5.0 PCT VS NOV +5.2 PCT (PREV +2.4 PCT)

Zahl der US-Wohnbaubeginne im Dezember gestiegen
Washington, 21. Jan (Reuters) - Das US-Handelsministerium
hat am Dienstag in Washington folgende Daten für die Entwicklung
der US-Wohnbaubeginne im Dezember veröffentlicht:

DEZ 2002 NOV 2002

Wohnbaubeginne 1,835 Mio 1,747 Mio
(aufs Jahr (rev. v. 1,697)
hochgerechnet)
Veränderung
gegenüber Vormonat + 5,0 vH + 5,2 vH
(rev. v. + 2,4)

US Dec housing starts up 5 pct, highest since 1986
WASHINGTON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. housing starts surged 5
percent in December to their highest level since mid-1986, the
government said on Tuesday, as the lowest mortgage interest
rates in almost 40 years proved irresistible to buyers.
Permits to break ground, an indicator of builder confidence
in future business, also jumped to the highest level in more
than 16 years, the Commerce Department said. Single-family
permits set a record in December.
Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
1.835 million units last month from an upwardly revised 1.747
million rate in November. Single-family starts were at their
highest level since 1978.
Starts defied expectations of analysts polled by Reuters,
who had forecast 1.678 million starts in a relatively wet
month.

=> Deutlich bessere Zahlen zu den Hausbaubeginnen.

17:26 ET Motorola tops Q4 consensus; guides Q1 (MOT) 8.75 -0…

16:26 ET Xilinx issues March qtr guidance (XLNX) 22.56 -0.03…
Weder up noch down.
16:19 ET RF Micro Device beats, guides down (RFMD) 6.91 +0.0… Gute Zahlen bei verhaltenem Ausblick.

Ford mit Betriebsgewinn im vierten Quartal
Dearborn, 21. Jan (Reuters) - Der weltweit zweitgrößte
Automobilhersteller Ford (F.N) hat im vierten Quartal des
vergangenen Jahres auf operativer Basis einen Gewinn von 150
Millionen Dollar oder acht Cent je Aktie erwirtschaftet.
Unter dem Strich habe sich ein Nettoverlust von 130
Millionen Dollar oder sieben Cent je Aktie ergeben, teilte Ford
am Dienstag in Dearborn im US-Bundesstaat Michigan mit.
Ford hatte Anfang des Monats vor Analysten erklärt, das
Unternehmen erwarte einen Gewinn etwas über den bisherigen
Prognosen von drei Cent je Aktie. Von Thomson First Call
befragte Analysten rechneten mit einem Gewinn von sieben Cent je
Aktie.
Unter Erwartungen aber auf dem Weg der Besserung.

Citigroup Q4 EPS falls 36 pct to 47 cents but beats consensu…

LONDON (AFX) - Citigroup Inc reported a 36 pct decline in fourth quarter earnings per share to 47 cents which compares to First Call/Thomson Financial consensus estimate of 46 cents.
The results for the fourth quarter and full year included a previously-announced 1.3 bln usd after tax charge related to the establishment of reserves for a previously announced settlement with regulators and related civil litigation, as well as regulatory inquiries and private litigation related to Enron, the banking group said.
Sanford Weill, chairman and CEO, said the company expects to deliver double digit income growth in 2003 and added: "We begin 2003 with tremendous confidence in the future.
"We will continue to provide our customers with the highest quality of financial services, and to deliver double digit income growth and industry-leading returns for our shareholders in 2003."
For the fourth quarter, the group reported net income of 2.43 bln usd, down 37 pct from a year earlier, with core income down 32 pct at 2.44 bln usd.
For the full year, net income rose 8 pct to 15.28 bln usd, with core income at 13.65 bln usd or 2.63 usd per share as revenues rose 7 pct to 75.76 bln usd.
"Our Global Consumer businesses were again the greatest contributor to our performance, with 26 pct income growth for the fourth quarter, capping a year of 21 pct growth," said Weill.
The group said it reduced the expected rate of return on its US pension assets from 9.5 pct to 8.0 pct resulting in a 34 mln usd increase to its pension expenses for the fourth quarter.

Ist mir egal was die schreiben, die News war gut.

für den Kursanstieg", sagte ein Analyst. "Außerdem haben einige
Anleger offenbar befürchtet, dass die bereits gesenkten
Prognosen verfehlt würden." Der Analyst Ralf Dörper von der
WestLB Panmure lobte darüber hinaus den gestiegenen
Auftragseingang bei MAN. "Positiv für die Kursentwicklung ist
vor allem die stabile Auftragslage insbesondere im Lkw-Bereich",
sagte er.
MAN hatte am Morgen einen leicht gestiegenen Auftragseingang
für 2002 ausgewiesen. Der Umsatz ging zwar auf 16 Millionen von
16,3 Millionen zurück, lag damit aber immer noch über den
Erwartungen vieler Analysten. Die Prognosen für das Ergebnis vor
Steuern werde man voraussichtlich erreichen, teilte MAN weiter
mit. Damit bestätigte MAN seine im November gesenkte Prognose.
Nach der Einschätzung der meisten Analysten wird die Aktie
in der nächsten Zeit weiter anziehen. Reuters-Daten zufolge
erwarten derzeit 16 von 25 Analysten eine zumindest bessere
Entwicklung der MAN-Aktie als der Markt.
Aus charttechnischer Sicht kämpfe der MAN-Kurs momentan mit
der Marke von 15 Euro, sagte Holger Galuschke, technischer
Analyst bei der SEB. "Sollte er in der Lage sein, diese zu
überwinden, wäre der Weg frei zum nächsten leichten Widerstand
bei 16,08 Euro."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">MAN-Aktie profitiert von soliden Auftragszahlen
Frankfurt, 21. Jan (Reuters) - Die Aktien des Nutzfahrzeug-
und Maschinenbauers MAN (MANG.DE) haben am Dienstag Analysten
zufolge wegen solider Auftrags- und Umsatzzahlen deutliche
Kursgewinne verbucht. Die Papiere kletterten zeitweise um 5,3
Prozent auf 15,30 Euro und stiegen damit stärker als der
Deutsche Aktienindex (Dax) (.GDAXI) , der sich um rund ein Prozent
erhöhte.
"Der Umsatz war besser als erwartet. Das ist der Hauptgrund
für den Kursanstieg", sagte ein Analyst. "Außerdem haben einige
Anleger offenbar befürchtet, dass die bereits gesenkten
Prognosen verfehlt würden." Der Analyst Ralf Dörper von der
WestLB Panmure lobte darüber hinaus den gestiegenen
Auftragseingang bei MAN. "Positiv für die Kursentwicklung ist
vor allem die stabile Auftragslage insbesondere im Lkw-Bereich",
sagte er.
MAN hatte am Morgen einen leicht gestiegenen Auftragseingang
für 2002 ausgewiesen. Der Umsatz ging zwar auf 16 Millionen von
16,3 Millionen zurück, lag damit aber immer noch über den
Erwartungen vieler Analysten. Die Prognosen für das Ergebnis vor
Steuern werde man voraussichtlich erreichen, teilte MAN weiter
mit. Damit bestätigte MAN seine im November gesenkte Prognose.
Nach der Einschätzung der meisten Analysten wird die Aktie
in der nächsten Zeit weiter anziehen. Reuters-Daten zufolge
erwarten derzeit 16 von 25 Analysten eine zumindest bessere
Entwicklung der MAN-Aktie als der Markt.
Aus charttechnischer Sicht kämpfe der MAN-Kurs momentan mit
der Marke von 15 Euro, sagte Holger Galuschke, technischer
Analyst bei der SEB. "Sollte er in der Lage sein, diese zu
überwinden, wäre der Weg frei zum nächsten leichten Widerstand
bei 16,08 Euro."

Tageskommentar: Eine Menge guter Kommentare zu den Unternehmenszahlen an diesem Tag. Leider nicht immer so tolle Ausblicke, vor allem von den Wirtschaftsforschern. Wobei man dazu sagen muß, daß diese immerhin eine Aufhellung in 6 Monaten zu erhoffen mögen.

Dennoch ist er DAX nicht zuletzte wegen steigender Gold und Ölpreise gefallen bei guten Nachrichten. Etwas belasteten auch die verhaltenen Ausblicke von den Unternehmen vom Vortag, wie auch dem Ausblick von Infineon und anderen Halbleiterunternehmen. Wie ernst man das angesichts der fast unveränderten Book-to-bill Ratio sehen will ist allerings die Frage.

Soweit die Zahlen vom Dienstag.

schrieb am 25.01.03 03:20:25

Beitrag Nr. 152 ()

@alterbekannter
ich bin ständiger leser deines threads und sehr interessiert an deinen gelieferten daten.
ich selbst habe mich neben statistik und aktueller nachrichtenlage ganz besonders der psychologie an börsen verschrieben. neuerdings nehme ich im daytrading die kursbewegungen sehr viel effizienter mit und bin seither erschreckend erfolgreich.
besuch mich doch mal, wenn es dir deine zeit gestattet.
ich übe mich in täglicher prognose für den folgenden handelstag.
http://www.tradingteam.de/cgi-bin/ikonboard/ikonboard.cgi?s=…

dir alles gute
Plus

schrieb am 25.01.03 03:33:01

Beitrag Nr. 153 ()

@Plus
wenn du meine Chi Plus abzgl. :cry:

Wackelmaschine brauchst
dann ruf mich an
liebe Grüße

schrieb am 25.01.03 12:47:10

Beitrag Nr. 154 ()

@Plus

Vielen Dank für den Link zu deiner Kolumne im tradingteam board. Deine Ideen und Einschätzugen gefallen mir. Auch sehe ich, daß Du gerne über diese Ansichten diskutieren möchtest, aber leider das Feedback ein wenig mager ist.

Daher folgende Idee bzw. folgendes Angebot:

Du bist herzlich willkommen in diesem Thread mitzuwirken. Gemeinsam ist man definitiv stärker am Markt durch die Einschätzung.

Folgende Grundregeln sind dabei allerdings zu beachten:

- Trades werden nur realtime (binnen 3 Min.) gepostet!!! Alles was länger vergangen ist, interessiert nicht mehr. Für die Trades ist der Fettdruck zu verwenden, am besten Du startest mit einem nachvollziehbaren Depotstand, und dieser wird auch weiter geführt. (Natürlich kannst Du auch nur bei der Nachrichteninformation mitwirken.)

- Nachrichten sind von der eigenen Meinung strickt zu trennen!!! Dieses ist auch kenntlich zu machen! Ich mach es so das die Nachrichten blau sind, da ich sie als Link poste, Kommentare sind schwarz.

-Wenn möglich jedoch sekundäre Informationen und Kommentare von irgendwelchen Analysten vermeiden. Up- und Downgrades der großen Häuser sind in Ordnung, aber nicht jeden Mist bitte.

- Jeder ist für sein eingenes Handeln verantwortlich. Wenn ich nun gerade beispielsweise mit den IFX im Minus bin, weil ich Hornochse keine Zeit hatte, die Position im Plus dort auch abzusichern, so ist das mein Bier. Tradet mir einer nach, so ist das sein Bier.

- Beschimpfungen oder Leute die einem ans Bein pinkeln wollen, werden einfach ignoriert.

- Auch den Thread bitte nicht für Werbung von Seminaren oder so mißbrauchen. Das Motto so sein: Börse mit Kapitalerhaltung /-vermehrung ohne viel dabei auszugeben.

schrieb am 25.01.03 14:03:10

Beitrag Nr. 155 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Mittwoch Mittwoch 22.01.03 :

00:00 OECD Chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis to address IS…

Bank of Japan: Leitzinsen unverändert

Weniger Aufträge im deutschen Baugewerbe im November
Wiesbaden, 22. Jan (Reuters) - Das Statistische Bundesamt
hat am Mittwoch in Wiesbaden für die Bauindustrie folgende Daten
zum Auftragseingang für November veröffentlicht:

NOV 2002 Veränderung
gg. VJ in vH
Index des
Auftragseingangs*
Insgesamt 59,2 - 9,5

Hochbau 49,0 - 15,7

Tiefbau 76,1 - 1,7

Beschäftigte (Tsd) 873 - 7,9

Geleistete Arbeitsstunden 89,9 - 10,3
(in Mio. Stunden)

Gesamtumsatz 8508 - 8,0
(in Mio. Euro)
darunter:
Baugewerblicher Umsatz 8398 - 8,0
(in Mio. Euro)

JAN-NOV Veränderung
2002 gg. VJ in vH
Index des
Auftragseingangs*
Insgesamt 70,7 - 6,2

Hochbau 60,1 - 12,5

Tiefbau 88,2 + 1,8

Beschäftigte (Tsd)** 884 - 7,8

Geleistete Arbeitsstunden 961,0 - 9,1
(in Mio. Stunden)

Gesamtumsatz 78.945 - 5,6
(in Mio. Euro)
darunter:
Baugewerblicher Umsatz 77.847 - 5,5
(in Mio. Euro)

Das ist natürlich noch mieser als Erwartet:

BoE January minutes
LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of
economists` reactions to minutes from the Monetary Policy
Committee`s January interest rate meeting at which they voted
7-2 to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 4.0 percent for the
14th month running.

GEORGE BUCKLEY, ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK
"I`m not surprised, the reason being if you look at what
happened in the run up to that meeting, the data was almost
unequivocally weak.
Overall, I still think that the balance of risk is weighed
toward the downside for UK rates. We are still not out of the
woods yet and the economic situation is still uncertain. Those
considerations mean that the MPC will still be looking toward
the possibility of cutting rates. But if we don`t get a rate
cut, I will not be surprised if the central bank keeps them
unchanged for the whole year."

Hört sich auch nicht besonders zuversichtlich an:

Harmonised euro zone inflation for December
BRUSSELS, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The European Union statistics
office, Eurostat, on Wednesday released the following harmonised
data on consumer prices in the 12-nation euro zone and 15-nation
EU:
(percentage change year on year, unless indicated otherwise):

2001
EMU-12 CPI Weight DEC NOV OCT SEP DEC DEC `02
Y/Y Y/Y Y/Y Y/Y Y/Y M/M
All items 1000 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 0.2
-ex energy 913.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.8 0.2
-ex energy,
unprocessed food 832.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 0.1
-excluding food,
energy, alcohol,
tobacco 709.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 0.1
-energy 86.4 3.6 2.1 2.3 -0.4 -4.6 0.3
-food/alcohol/tob 203.9 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 4.6 0.3

-food 164.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 5.0 0.3
-alcohol,tobacco 39.7 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.0 0.3
-clothing 80 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.4 -0.4
-housing 150 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.3
-household goods 79.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.1 0.1
-health 39 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.3
-transport 151.6 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.2 -0.6 0.2
-communications 24.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -1.6 -0.3
-leisure,culture 94.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 0.4
-education 9.4 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.6 0.1
-hotel,restaurant 90.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 3.5 0.4
-miscellaneous 77 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 0.1

By country:
2001 12 Mo
DEC NOV OCT SEP DEC Avg Rate
Austria 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7
Belgium 1 3 1 1 1.3 1.2 2.0 1.6
Finland 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.3 2.0
France 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9
Germany 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.3
Greece 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.9
Ireland 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.7
Italy 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.6
Luxembourg 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 0.9 2.1
Netherlands 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 5.1 3.9
Portugal 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.7
Spain 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.5 2.5 3.6
EMU-12 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2
Denmark 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.4
Sweden 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.2 3.2 2.0
U.K. 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.3
EU-15 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1

Mit der Teuerungsrate steht Deutschland ausnahmsweise mal ganz gut da. Die Telekommunikationskosten fallen weiter, der Rest steigt ordentlich wo es um Arbeitskraft oder Energie geht.

Für Deutschland hier mal ein:

Dieser Daumen nach oben ist zwar Kaufkraft steigernd, aber nicht umbedingst Konsumsteigernd. Das bitte im Hinterkopf behalten.

UK CBI quarterly industrial trends survey - Jan
LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Following are tabulated results
from the latest quarterly survey of trends in UK manufacturing
by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI):

QUARTERLY INDUSTRIAL TRENDS
Percentage balances (difference between number replying
positively and number replying negatively to key questions).

2003--2002--------------------2001------------------
** more, or less, optimistic than four months ago about
general business situation
JAN OCT JUL APR JAN OCT JUL APR JAN
-19 -19 +4 +21 -31 -54 -22 -29 -3
** trend in volume of total orders over past four months
-9 -16 -11 -14 -15 -14 -6 -1 +4
** expected volume of orders next four months
-3 +8 +7 +9 -12 -25 +1 -4 +9
** trend in output over past four months
-7 -12 -10 -15 -13 -11 -9 -1 +5
** expected volume of output next four months
+2 +8 +9 +14 -13 -23 +3 -2 +14
** factors likely to limit output: skills shortages
+9 +10 +9 +9 +8 +13 +15 +17 +18
** what trend in past four months in numbers employed
-30 -22 -31 -35 -37 -16 -22 -14 -7
** what trend in next four months in numbers employed
-29 -23 -18 -23 -41 -27 -27 -19 -12
** percentage of firms working below capacity
+74 +67 +67 +72 +66 +59 +67 +64 +57
** percentage of firms with present capacity at least
adequate for expected demand
+93 +89 +90 +93 +93 +91 +94 +92 +87
** 12-month forecast of capex compared previous 12 months
on
a) buildings
-28 -27 -18 -30 -29 -29 -23 -23 -22
b) plant and machinery
-22 -25 -13 -25 -28 -28 -15 -7 -9
** trend in past 4 mths in volume of stocks of finished
goods
-8 -12 -14 -15 -9 -14 -6 +5 -4
** trend in next four months in stocks of finished goods
-15 -20 -8 -8 -21 -13 -16 -8 -9
** trend in average unit costs in past four months
-5 +2 -11 -6 -1 0 -2 +1 +3
** trend in average unit costs in next four months
-6 -4 -6 -5 -11 -1 -10 -5 0
** trend in past four months on average domestic prices
-18 -19 -17 -20 -28 -18 -16 -11 -13
** trend in prices over next four months
-12 -8 -10 -10 -23 -21 -16 -13 +4
** Optimism re export prospects for year ahead
-22 -14 +4 +11 -26 -53 -25 -16 +7
** volume of export orders past four months
-21 -19 -14 -18 -36 -32 -20 -15 -1
** volume of export orders in next four months
-14 -1 +1 +6 -20 -34 -16 -8 +6
** average export prices over past four months
-24 -17 -16 -18 -22 -21 -21 -19 -17
** average export prices over next four months
-18 -16 -13 -11 -17 -23 -19 -16 -6

MONTHLY TRENDS ENQUIRY

CBI MONTHLY TRENDS ENQUIRY JAN DEC NOV OCT
total order book -25 -32 -22 -33
export order book -38 -33 -34 -34
stocks of finished goods +20 +16 +11 +16
output expectations +2 -1 +2 +8
domestic price expectations -12 -12 -14 -8

NOTE - percentage balance between those replying up, above
normal or more than adequate and those replying down, below
normal or less than adequate.
Output and domestic price expectations are for the next four
months.

=> Das sind ziemlich gut zu deutende Zahlen. Hier wird es wohl zu weiteren Entlassungen kurzfristig kommen, da weder die Kapazitiäten ausgelastet sind, noch der Output höher werden soll. Ebenso füllen sich die Lager wohl wieder an. Große Lagerbestände sind ein Risiko. Die Exporte gehen zurück, und vor allem das Geld was die Briten dafür bekommen.

(Aber die Britten haben immerhin ein wenig Öl in den letzten Jahren entdeckt in ihren Böden.

)

MBA survey - U.S. mortgage refinancings dip in week
NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The number of U.S. homeowners
applying for loans to buy a home or refinance their mortgage
loans dipped even as interest rates fell last week, an industry
survey reported on Wednesday.
Low interest rates have shored up a wobbly U.S. economy
because they have encouraged home buying which, in turn, has
stimulated spending on related goods and services. At the same
time, mortgage refinancings foster spending because home owners
often spend some of the money saved when they cut monthly home
loan costs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) said its
widely watched measure of loan refinances, the MBA refinance
index, fell 6.1 percent to 5,433.4 in the week ended Jan. 17.
At the same time, the MBA said its seasonally adjusted
market index fell 4.7 percent to 1,100.3 in the week ended Jan.
17. And, the group`s measure of demand for loans to buy a home
ebbed 0.8 percent to 355.3.
Each week, the MBA surveys between 20 to 35 firms, among
them the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its
refinance, purchase and market indexes. This weekly survey
accounts for more than 40 percent of all applications processed
each week by mortgage lenders.

==> Unter den Erwartungen und damit ein:

U.S. chain store sales edge up Jan 18 week-report
NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales edged up
modestly last week but only because of heavy clearance promotions
as retailers sought to get rid of remaining holiday merchandise, a
report said on Wednesday.
U.S. chain store sales rose 0.3 percent in the week ended
Jan. 18, matching the previous week`s gains, the Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg said in a joint report.
"Despite the moderate gain, sales were generally mixed
relative to plan for retailers," the report said.
Sales compared to last year grew 2.6 percent, down from a
2.9 percent year-on-year growth rate reported in the previous
week.
The BTM/UBSW Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is compiled
from a group of major discount, department and chain stores
across the country that report their weekly results. The
BTM/UBSW index measures sales growth with the year 1977
equaling 100.

Angebote hin oder her, die Leute haben mehr ausgegeben:

U.S. chain store sales rose two weeks Jan-report
NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales rose in
the first two weeks of January but the rate of sales growth slowed
in the second week of the month as retailers exhausted holiday
inventories, a report said on Wednesday.
Sales at major U.S. chain stores grew 0.7 percent in the
first two weeks of January, compared with the same period last
month, Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook report.
Sales rose 1.5 percent in the week ended Jan. 18 compared with
the same week a year ago, the report said.
"Sales growth declined slightly from the previous week,"
the report said. "Performance eased at department stores and
firmed at discount stores, bringing overall results more into line
with retailers` January plans."
The Redbook Average is compiled from a sample of general
merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.
Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least a
year.

=> Umsätze werden zwar weniger, aber sie sind noch im am steigen, was ich positiv sehe. Das die Umsätze weniger werden, wird hier auf leere Lager der Verkäufer zurückgeführt, was ich auch selbst nachvollziehen kann in den Geschäften. Die Regale sind zum Teil einfach nur leer. Dafür vergebe ich ein:

Denn die Firmen zögern mit den Neubestellungen, was sie umsetzten, das hat nur noch eine kleine Marge, dann scheint es aber zu gehen. Daher hier ein

für die Diskounter, denn die betreiben immer so ein Business. Die Margenshops wie teure Luxusboutiquen und andere sehe ich hier derzeit nicht ganz so positiv.

US govt posts $4.37 bln budget surplus in December
WASHINGTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The federal government
posted its first monthly budget surplus of the new budget year
in December, bringing in $4.37 billion more in revenues than it
spent in outlays, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.
The as-expected surplus, the first in the three-month old
2003 budget year, was sharply down, however, from December
2001`s $26.57 billion surplus.
Receipts dipped to $182.80 billion, down from $187.91
billion in December 2001. Spending, pushed up by defense and
social programs, advanced to $178.43 billion in December 2002,
up from $161.35 billion in the same month a year earlier.
The December surplus figure was close to the $4.40 billion
surplus projected by Wall Street analysts polled by Reuters,
and also close to a $4 billion estimate from Capitol Hill`s
fiscal watchdog agency, the Congressional Budget Office.

==> Endlich mal ein Überschuß im Finanzhaushalt. Aber schlechter als im Vorjahr. Zahlen waren im Rahmen der Erwartungen.

Und hier die Zahlen der Unternehmen vom Mittwoch:
17:52 ET Siebel Systems tops Q4 consensus (SEBL): Reports Q4…

17:47 ET STMicroelectronics beats by a penny (STM): Reports …

16:37 ET Qualcomm beats by $0.04; guides Q2 and full yr abov…

16:35 ET Texas Instruments tops estimates; updates guidance … Das ist schon sehr stark:

16:28 ET Altera reports Q4 results (ALTR): Reports Q4 (Dec) …Hier vielleicht ein up für die Umsätze aber ein Down für die Margen.

14:49 ET Lucent files with SEC for $1.76 bln mixed shelf off…
Hier gefällt mir der Jahresausblick schon ganz gut.

08:16 ET Semi equipment book-bill rose to 0.98 in Dec : Book…
Ja da werden wir erst wirklich in ein paar Monaten wissen ob Lehmanns Pessimismus siegt, oder ob die Zahlen dann doch besser kommen. Wenn sie besser kommen, dann gibt es auf jeden Fall eine kräftige Rally.

08:01 ET Merrill Lynch tops estimates (MER): Reports Q4 (Dec…
Zwar gute Ergebnisse aber ein mieser Kommentar als Ausblick:

07:58 ET JP Morgan Chase in line (JPM): -- Update -- Multex … In den Erwartungen.

07:31 ET Lucent beats on bottom-line; continues to see retur… Ganz klar positiv:

07:26 ET Intel COO sells 900,000 shares (INTC): The Financia…

07:19 ET Eastman Kodak misses by $0.02, guides Q1 below cons…

07:14 ET Tyco matches consensus; sees 2003 at low end of ran…

schrieb am 25.01.03 14:15:56

Beitrag Nr. 156 ()

@alterbekannter

danke für dein feedback.
Die einladung in deinem thread mitzuwiken ehrt mich sehr.
so gerne ich diese einladung annehmen möchte, stehen doch einige gründe dagegen.

zunächst sehe ich mich möglicherweise außerstande alle meine trades innerhalb von 3 min gültig hier zu posten, da aufgrund meiner gelegentlich wechselnden handelsstrategien einfach die zeit nicht dafür bleibt.
im zweifelsfall konzentriere ich mich an erster stelle auf den handelsverlauf (meine brieftasche ist mir zu nah),
als einer zeitlich definierten mitteilungspflicht nachzukommen.

genau aus diesem grund, bin ich, wann immer es mir die zeit erlaubt zu traden (bin selbstständig)auch im chat http://www.tradingteam.de/. hier genügen ein paar wortfetzen, um den jeweiligen real durchgeführten trade mitzuteilen. die erforderliche mitteilung ist in 2-3 sek getätigt.

bei einem streifzug durch dieses board findet man immer wieder threads, die sich damit befassen, wie man mit 3.80 € innerhalb von 3 monaten die erste mio voll hat.

dieses ansinnen verfolge ich nicht. insofern würde ich auch nicht mit einem nachvollziehbaren depotbestand arbeiten wollen, um mich täglich, nach natürlich erfolgreichen trades von den boardteilnehmern feiern order belächeln zu lassen.
ich habe immo ein derart gutes gefühl für den markt, dass mir die sich daraus ergebenden erfolge, eh keiner glauben würde.

im o.a. chat bevorzuge ich immo den dialog mit 2-3 usern, von denen ich weiss, dass sie ihr handwerk verstehen
(aber auch nur geflüstert).denen teile ich meine ein- und ausstiege real mit und ich kenne auch die ihrigen.

sehr wohl ist man gemeinsam stärker am markt und in dessen einschätzung.
aber ich schätze es sehr, dass du dich in deinem thread sehr konsequent auf die mitteilung reiner fakten beschränkst und das ganze bla bla darum wohltuend weglässt.
käme ich jetzt mit meinem stark subjektiv geprägten gelabere, dann wäre auch der charakter deines threads dahin.

meinen eigenen thread habe ich begonnen (erst seit ein paar tagen), weil ich untersuchen möchte, inwieweit man unter weitestgehenden verzicht technischer instrumente, die märkte prognostizieren kann, um gewinnbringend zu handeln.

meine grundsatzüberlegung diesbezüglich begründet sich aus der überlegung heraus, dass indikatoren immer die nachläufer eines bereits eingetretenen ereignisses sind. es tritt also die tatsache ein und die instrumente (indikatoren) reagieren darauf.

die aus nachrichten resultierende Psychologie der handelsteilnehmer ist jedoch der vorläufer, welches den kursverlauf nach sich zieht.

diesen denkansatzt möchte ich vertiefen.
ich habe mich bewußt in die noch stille ecke des board`s vom tradingteam zurückgezogen.

es kommt mir überhaupt nicht auf ein feedback an.

vielmehr möchte ich mich selbst an den dingen messen und
eventuell gültige regeln daraus ableiten.
ich möchte dabei gerne auf so jämmerliche reaktionen, wie die meines vorredners verzichten.

mit deinem einverständnis lassen wir die dinge so, wie sie sind.

selbstverständlich bleibe ich treuer leser deines threads und werde mich auch gerne von zeit zu zeit zu wort melden.
dann aber wieder in der gebotenen kürze..........versprochen.

dir alles gute
Plus

schrieb am 25.01.03 14:52:17

Beitrag Nr. 157 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Donnerstag:

Donnerstag 23.01.03

00:00 Deutschand Dezember SA Produzent…

Erzeugerpreise im Dezember zum Vormonat gestiegen
Wiesbaden, 23. Jan (Reuters) - Der Index der Erzeugerpreise
gewerblicher Produkte in Deutschland ist im Dezember im
Vergleich zum Vormonat um 0,2 Prozent gestiegen. Das
Statistische Bundesamt veröffentlichte am Donnerstag in
Wiesbaden folgende Zahlen:

DEUTSCHLAND:
Monats- Jahres- Index
veränd. Veränd. (Basis
(in vH) (in vH) 1995)

DEZ 2002 + 0,2 + 0,9 104,6
NOV 2002 - 0,2 + 0,4 104,4
OKT 2002 + 0,3 + 0,3 104,6
SEP 2002 + 0,2 - 0,9 104,3
AUG 2002 - 0,1 - 1,0 104,1
JUL 2002 - 0,3 - 1,0 104,2
JUN 2002 - 0,1 - 1,1 104,5
MAI 2002 0,0 - 0,9 104,6
APR 2002 - 0,1 - 0,8 104,6
MÄR 2002 + 0,3 - 0,2 104,7
FEB 2002 + 0,1 - 0,3 104,4
JAN 2002 + 0,6 - 0,1 104,3

DEZ 2001 - 0,3 + 0,1 103,7

JAHRESDURCHSCHNITT DEUTSCHLAND:
Monats- Jahres- Index
veränd. Veränd. (Basis
(in vH) (in vH) 1995)

2002 ----- - 0,5 104,4
2001 ----- + 3,0 104,9
2000 ----- + 3,4 101,8
1999 ----- - 1,0 98,5

Damit wurden die Erwartungen genau getroffen was die m/m Zahlen anging, y/y sind sie etwas schlechter mit +0,9% ausgefallen.

UK retail sales unexpectedly surge in December
LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Just when everyone was predicting
the demise of the British shopper over the Christmas period,
official data released on Thursday showed sales registered their
biggest monthly rise since last April.
The Office for National Statistics said seasonally adjusted
sales rose 1.1 percent last month from November to stand a hefty
6.4 percent higher than a year ago. Both numbers are the best
since April and suggest retailers enjoyed another bumber
Christmas.
They were also much stronger than financial pundits had
expected. The average forecast from economists polled by Reuters
had been for a monthly fall of 0.2 percent.
The latest numbers are thus likely to dent growing
speculation that the Bank of England might soon be tempted to
cut interest rates further to support an economy which has
relied on strong consumer spending for the past few years.
The ONS cautioned, however, that there were always problems
in seasonally adjusting sales over the Christmas period and
these were compounded this year by the unusually late sales
period covered, which started and finished six days later than
December 2001.
Seasonal movements in sales are substantial and sharp around
the Christmas period.
It said its results were based on a high response from
retailers and the prices used for its volume indices were
consistent with the RPI so it did not expect big revisions to
the size of the calendar and seasonal adjustments. But it did
expect some revisions to come through in the months ahead.
The ONS said the latest data suggested the underlying rate
of growth in retail sales was similar to that throughout 2001
and 2002, apart from those affected by the Queen`s Golden
Jubilee celebrations last June.
On a three-monthly basis, sales were up 1.8 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2002 from the third and 5.5 percent better
than the fourth quarter of 2001. The numbers were the strongest
since May and June last year respectively.
Anecdotal evidence from retailers has suggested that while
sales were sluggish in the runup to Christmas, they surged just
before the festive break and right afterwards when shops slashed
prices.

Für die Briten auf jeden Fall sehr gute Zahlen mal wieder:

U.S. jobless claims rise in latest week
WASHINGTON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - More Americans lined up for
jobless aid last week, the government said on Thursday in a
report that showed a stagnant labor picture.
The Labor Department said first-time jobless claims -- a
guide to the job market and the pace of layoffs -- rose by
18,000 to 381,000 in the week ended Jan. 18 from a revised
363,000 for the prior week, just below the Wall Street forecast
for 386,000. Labor had originally reported claims at 360,000
for the Jan. 11 week.
The Labor Department cautioned that the initial figures may
be skewed by a holiday-shortened processing week -- the Martin
Luther King, Jr. holiday was on Jan. 20 -- which gave the
department and the states fewer days to calculate the number of
claims.
The department noted that given the shorter processing
time, the preliminary estimate for the Jan. 18 week could be
subject to a larger than normal revision in next week`s report.

Zunächst waren diese Zahlen wieder unter 400.000 was schon mal ein

verdient hat. Dann waren die Zahlen besser als die Erwartungen. Und die alten Zahlen wurden nicht zu stark revisiert. Somit recht positiv. Ein Wehrmutstropfen bleibt, daß dieser Zahlen möglicherweise noch deutlich schlechter werden, aufgrund der Erklärung mit dem Feiertag.

Die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit steigt weiter. (Zahlen stehen oben nicht.)

U.S. Dec leading indicators rose 0.1 pct
WASHINGTON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Conference Board index
of leading, coincident and lagging indicators (1996=100) and
percent changes from previous months, seasonally adjusted.

Indicators: Index Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev)
Leading 111.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
Coincident 115.2 unch unch 0.1 unch unch
Lagging 99.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 unch unch

Following are components of the index of leading indicators
with net contributions to monthly changes.
Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev)
Average Workweek 0.14 -0.05 unch -0.05 -0.04
Initial Jobless Claims -0.29 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.13
Consumer Goods Orders 0.02 -0.10 -0.02 0.11 0.13
Slower Deliveries 0.03 -0.10 -0.10 -0.17 -0.16
Capital Goods Orders 0.02 -0.05 -0.03 0.06 0.06
Building Permits 0.16 -0.04 -0.05 0.05 0.04
Stock Prices -0.04 0.19 0.19 -0.05 -0.05
Money Supply 0.03 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.19
Treasury Yield Curve 0.03 0.17 0.17 0.02 0.02
Consumer Expectations 0.06 0.14 0.13 -0.17 -0.16

Nur leicht besser, aber eine Nachricht die ich so gut nicht erwartet habe.

17:54 ET PMC-Sierra offers in line Q1 revenue guidance (PMCS… Könnte sich schlechter anhören.

17:25 ET KLA-Tencor provides mixed Q3 guidance (KLAC): -- Up…

17:09 ET KLA-Tencor comments on overall `03 equipment spendi…

16:25 ET Amazon.com provides mixed guidance; adopts free shi… Einer der wie Ebay zeigt, das es auch mit dem Internet geht Gewinne zu machen.

16:21 ET KLA-Tencor beats by a penny (KLAC): Reports Q2 (Dec… => komisch wie unterschiedlich die Analysten das sehen können.

09:02 ET McDonald`s reports in line (MCD): Reports Q4 (Dec) … => Die haben die Preise ja massiv gesenkt, denke mit den Erhöhungen haben sie sich viel verscherzet gehabt. Für mich gleibt da was negatives hängen.

07:57 ET AT&T to repurchase $4.3 bln in debt for cash (T) 25…

Die Handys gehen doch schneller kaput als man das glaubt. Was die Umsätze bei einem Bedarf oben hält.

Siemens: Umsatz: 18.845 VJ 20.986 EBIT: 604 VJ 487 Netto: 52…

=> Margen steigen bei Siemens, was die Rendite der Aktie wieder interessanter macht.

Für die sinkenden Umsätze allerdings ein:

schrieb am 25.01.03 15:04:25

Beitrag Nr. 158 ()

@Plus

In der Kürze liegt die Würze, so ist es. (Trades zu posten muß auch nicht sein. Sie sind im diesem Thread eher Nebensache.)

Der Thread soll den Fakten erhalten bleiben!

Ich werde auch an einer Lösung arbeiten, die Daten zum Teil noch übersichtlicher zu gestalten, ohne das es einen großen Arbeitsaufwand mit sich zieht.

Zu dem Tradingansatz: Ich habe festgestellt, das es wichtige Indikatoren gibt, nach denen man traden kann. Sie sind meist hier bei der Zeitangabe unterstrichen. Die anderen Zeitangaben bezüglich Reden usw. diesen nur dazu um dann nicht auf einem falschen Fuß erwischt zu werden. Leider gibt es aber auch Tage, wo die Börse einfach gegen die Indikatoren läuft. Zum Teil lassen sich dann auch immer wiederkehrende Tradingmuster in den Futures ausmachen, Kauf oder Verkaufsprogramme bestimmen dann häufig das Bild in den Indizes. Daher ist das einhalten von Stops das A und O bei den Trades!!!

Die News werden weiter die Börsen und diesen Thread bestimmen.

In diesem Sinne,

best regards. :cool:

schrieb am 25.01.03 15:34:55

Beitrag Nr. 159 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen vom Freitag:

Freitag 24.01.03

Italien Einzelhandelsumsätze
00:50 Japan …

8:00 Deutschland Exportpreise Dezember unv. gg Vm, 0,6% gg Vj Importpreise Dezember 0,9% gg Vm, 0,5% gg Vj
08:47 Frankreich Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember 2,3% gg Vj

UK economy grows 1.7 pct in 2002, worst for decade
LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The British economy expanded by
a provisional 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year,
bringing growth for the full year to 1.7 percent, the worst
performance since 1992, official data showed on Friday.
However, the 0.4 percent figure was in line with economists`
expectations and will thus come as a relief to a stock markets
that have fallen for the past nine days in a row.
Many economists consider growth of 1.7 percent for 2002 to
be a reasonable showing given the global economic slowdown.
The giant German economy, for example, grew just 0.2 percent
last year.
The fourth quarter figure of 0.4 percent was sharply lower
than the 0.9 percent in the third quarter but the ONS cautioned
that the third quarter enjoyed a boost from extra output as
firms made up for time lost during extended closures in June for
the Queen`s golden jubilee celebrations.
Without the Jubilee effect, statisticians said, the third
quarter figure would probably have been similar to the fourth
quarter figure.
But the latest figures will make it difficult for the
economy to manage the growth of 2.5 to 3.0 percent that
Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown forecast in his
pre-budget report in November.

UK preliminary Q4 GDP up 0.4 pct QQ
LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics released the following preliminary seasonally
adjusted, real UK gross domestic product data (1995=100,
previously reported data in brackets):
Q4 Q3
GDP AT MARKET PRICES (constant prices)
Pct change q/q 0.4* 0.9 (0.9)
Pct change y/y 2.2** 2.1 (2.1)
Index (base 1995) 120.7 120.3 (120.3)

CONSENSUS FORECAST: +0.4 pct qtr/qtr, +2.3 pct yr/yr.

OVERALL GDP BREAKDOWN -
Index q/q y/y
Distribution,hotels,catering 127.8 0.8 3.8
Total service industries 128.9 0.6 2.2

GDP AT MARKET PRICES (constant prices)
2002 2001
Pct change y/y 1.7*** 2.0

* weakest since Q1 2002, when it was 0.2 pct
** strongest since Q1 2001, when it was 2.5 pct.
*** weakest since 1992, when it was 0.2 pct.

NOTE - GDP has now grown for 42 consecutive quarters since
the trough in Q2 1992. Over that period the economy has expanded
by 33.9 percent with services output up 44 percent.
It repeated that both the third and second quarters of the
year had been distorted by the effect of the Queen`s golden
jubilee celebrations which caused lost output in the second
quarter and extra output in Q3.
It said that without the jubilee effect, growth would have
been 0.8-1.3 percent in Q2, 0.2-0.5 percent in Q3 and similar
growth to Q3 in Q4.
The ONS estimated that industrial and manufacturing output
had fallen during the quarter while services had grown.
It estimated that agriculture output had contracted in Q4
while construction output had risen, continuing a trend of
strong growth.
Within manufacturing, most subsectors are thought to have
fallen with the biggest drops likely to have been in transport
equipment due to weak vehicle production.
Mining and quarrying output is estimated to have risen in
the quarter, with oil output growth likely to have risen
strongly after maintenance closures in the North Sea fields
during the second and third quarters.
Gas extraction, by contrast, probably fell due to above
average temperatures during the period. Electricity and water
supply also probably fell.
Distribution and catering output was similar to that of Q3
with growth strong in the motor and retail trades subsector.
Transport and communications are expected to have shown
reasonable growth during the period.
Business service and finance growth is estimated to have
been moderate but at the lower end of the recent range. The
banking and insurance sector probably grew quite strongly, the
ONS said, while business services likely grew only moderately.
Government services probably grew slighlty more slowly than
in previous quarters.

Die Zahlen waren in den Erwartungen.

Deutschland Konsumentenpreis-Index Januar vorl. +0,9% gg Vm,…

Das ist ja ein kräftiger Anstieg der Konsumentenpreise im neuen Jahr, sowas ist aber meist im Januar der Fall. Hier dürfte es wohl noch etwas stärker werden im Angesicht der steigenden Lohnnebenkosten. Für Deutschland:

Die Italien Zahlen sind schon ein wenig zu alt.

12:22 ET Daschle unveils alternative stimulus package : CNN …

==> Schön wäre es wenn hierzulande auch mal Konjunkturförderungprogramme anlaufen würden.

10:53 ET Japanese urged to leave Iraq by Wednesday - ABC : A…

Die Japaner ziehen sich schon zurück, wir wissen ja das das Ultimatum die letzen Tradingtage bestimmt hat, wenn ich es richtig im Kopf habe solle es doch am 27. Januar ablaufen.

Zum Tagesschluß schoß das Öl auch noch mal in die Höhe, weil die Opec sich außer Stande sieht, die Preise durch mehr Angebot zu deckeln. In Venezuela wird weiter gestreikt, auch wenn hier wohl zwischenzeitlich einige angefüllte Tanker das Land doch verlassen haben, die Mitte Febraur wohl in den Zielhäfen eintreffen sollen. Die Araber dürfte es aber auch nicht weiter stören, daß die westliche Welt derzeit bereit ist so viel für das Öl zu beszahlen. Zusätzlich wollen die auch keinen Beitrag am Kriegsgeschehen gegen die Irakis tragen wollen, so daß sie weiter eine restriktive Politik betreiben werden. Anfang des Jahres hatte ich eine Äußerung des Saudis auf den Seiten der Opec gelesen, die einen Ölpreis von 100 US nicht einmal ausschließen wollen. :eek:

(das ist keine Panikmache). Ich selbst halte das vorerst für übertrieben. Die USA sehen die Möglichkeit, das die Irakis ihre Ölfelder zerstören wollen. Möglich ist das sicherlich, allerdings ist auch möglich, das die Ammis das als vorwand nehmen, um die Ölfelder im Süden Iraks unter Kontrolle zu bekommen. Die Ölfelder im Norden Iraks sind aufgrund der hier von der Türkei rüber gehaltenen Hand da schon ein noch heikeleres Thema.

09:05 ET Iraq preparing for chemical war - BBC : The BBC rep…

08:15 ET Lockheed Martin tops Q4; guides Y03 lower (LMT): Re…

Lookheed Martin ist natürlich von dem oben beschriebenen Geschehen direkt abhängig. Wie man sieht mit einem Ergebnis über den Erwartungen.

(<= hier habe ich ja schon ein schlechtes Gefühl den Daumen nach oben anzubringen, denn ich bin jemand der gegen Krieg ist.)

07:49 ET Raytheon misses by penny; sees Y03 higher (RTN): Re…

==> Noch eine Rüstungsfirma, die aber die Erwartungen nicht getroffen hat.

schrieb am 25.01.03 15:38:41

Beitrag Nr. 160 ()

14:27 Uhr am Freitag German Jan jobless : A bit early for a …

but Germany`s Bild newspaper reports `labour market experts` seeing Jan`s unadjusted total up 320k in the month to 4.54 mln. War fears and cold weather were the main reasons for the sharp rise, it said. Note, using last year`s seasonal adjustment, and assuming Bild`s sources are correct, this translates through to a seasonal adj of +30k

==> Bildleser wissen offenbar mehr. Miese News wäre das:

Kein wunder das es am Freitag nach dieser Uhrzeit dann runter ging.

schrieb am 25.01.03 17:47:08

Beitrag Nr. 161 ()

Samstag 17:18 Uhr DAVOS-US discussed use of Turkish bases fo…

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of
State Colin Powell said on Saturday he had had an "extensive
discussion" with Turkey`s leaders on the use of Turkish bases
for a possible attack on Iraq.
"We had an extensive discussion about these matters," Powell
said after meeting for about 75 minutes with Turkish Prime
Minister Abdullah Gul and ruling AKP party leader Tayyip Erdogan
on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
Asked if there were any deadlines for agreement with Turkey
on the issue, Powell said: "We didn`t discuss deadlines, they
have a good sense of the timing that`s involved."
Gul called the talks "fruitful and useful", adding: "War is
nobody`s choice."

==> Wie schon gesagt es geht wohl auch um die Ölquellen, die einen im Süden, die anderen im Norden von Irak.

schrieb am 25.01.03 17:55:16

Beitrag Nr. 162 ()

Den Leading Index vom Freitag um 16:30 Uhr hatte ich noch vergessen:

U.S. economy gauge near flat in Jan 17 week-report

NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is slowly
edging its way out of a soft patch but wobbly business
confidence amid the looming threat of war in Iraq is holding
back the recovery, a report said on Friday.
Higher initial jobless claims nudged the Economic Cycle
Research Institute`s weekly leading index just a notch lower to
119.5 from 119.6. But its growth rate, which smooths out weekly
fluctuations, rose to -1.5 percent from -1.8 percent.
ECRI`s forward-looking economic barometer has rebounded
from an October low of 114.9, but the growing prospect of an
attack against Saddam Hussein has business leaders reluctant to
ramp up production or hire new workers.
"The economy is being held hostage by geopolitical
tensions," said Anirvan Banerji, ECRI research director. "We`ve
started crawling out the hole, but we are still vulnerable."
The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven
major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term
indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and
recoveries in the world`s leading economies.

Der ist im Gegensatz zur Börse nur um 0,1 Punkte gefallen, was mich positiv sehr überrascht hat.

schrieb am 26.01.03 12:39:18

Beitrag Nr. 163 ()

25-01-03 19:47 Infineon erwartet Vorgehen der Wettbewerbsbeh…

Davos, 25. Jan (Reuters) - Der Münchener Chiphersteller
Infineon erwartet, dass die Wettbewerbsbehörden der
Europäischen Union und der USA in diesem Sommer wegen
Wettbewerbsverzerrung gegen seinen südkoreanischen Konkurrenten
Hynix vorgehen werden.
"Wir erwarten ein Eingreifen in Europa und den USA im Juli
oder August. Sie (die Behörden) haben die Beweise und werden
handeln", sagte der Vorstandsvorsitzende Ulrich Schumacher am
Samstag der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters am Rande des
Weltwirtschaftsforums in Davos. Beide Behörden ermitteln gegen
Hynix wegen des Vorwurfs der Wettbewerbsverzerrung. Die
südkoreanische Regierung soll Subventionen an örtliche
Hersteller von Speicherchips (DRAM) gezahlt haben. Diesen
Vorwurf hatten Infineon und der US-Wettbewerber Micron
erhoben.
Im vergangenen Monat hatte Hynix von seinen Gläubigern ein
Hilfspaket in Höhe von vier Milliarden Dollar (rund 3,7
Milliarden Euro) erhalten. Dies werde den Konkurrenten einige
Zeit auf dem Markt halten, sagte Schumacher. Er rechne daher
damit, dass die Preise für Speicherchips weiterhin unter Druck
stehen würden. Seine Wettbewerber werfen Hynix vor, die
Speicherchips zu Preisen unterhalb der Produktionskosten zu
verkaufen.
Schumacher sagte, das Unternehmen arbeite mit ineffizienten
und alten Maschinen und sei daher weniger wettbewerbsfähig als
Infineon. Hynix hatte im vergangenen Jahr nach einem Käufer
gesucht und deshalb teilweise seine Bücher für Wettbewerber
geöffnet. Das südkoreanische Unternehmen ist der viertgrößte
Speicherchip-Hersteller der Welt nach Samsung
Electronics aus Südkorea sowie Micron und Infineon.

schrieb am 26.01.03 15:25:18

Beitrag Nr. 164 ()

OUTLOOK SAP Q4 net 401-454 mln eur vs 379 mln
WALLDORF, Germany (AFX) - German software company SAP AG is expected on Thursday to post a fourth quarter net profit of 401-454 mln eur, up from 379 mln eur in the year-earlier period, according to analysts polled by AFX News.
Operating profit before stock-based compensation programmes and TopTier charges will come in at 669-722 mln eur on license sales of 2.254-2.312 bln eur, analysts said.
After SAP preannounced results on Jan 9, saying its full year sales margin will improve by at least 1 pct to 21 pct, while full year sales will be slightly higher than last year and fourth quarter license sales will come in at 950 mln eur, down from 1.03 bln eur, analysts are expecting few more surprises, they said.
Most analysts were upbeat on the company, with Deutsche Bank saying they might even have reached an EBITA margin of 21.5 pct, exceeding their margin target of 21 pct.
Goldman Sachs analysts said that "following the positive preannouncement and other positive datapoints, we expect results to be in line with expectations".
Others noted the broad base of the results and successful cost-cutting measures SAP had in place.
"They have done phenomenally well, achieving their margin target with flat sales," Bank of America analyst Paul Morland said.
"License strength seemed to be broad-based and driven by seasonality, market leading position, leveraging the customer base and share gains," the Goldman Sachs analysts added.
However, SAP will be muted with its outlook for this year and might not even give a concrete guidance, having learned its lesson from last year, where the company had to change its guidance several times, analysts said.
"Given the lack of visibility in the demand environment, we don`t expect management to provide explicit... revenue guidance," Goldman Sachs commented.
The analysts expect a 59 pct sequential decline in licenses and total revenues to decline 26 pct, they added.
Some analysts noted the increasing negative effect the rise of the euro against the US dollar has on SAP`s results.
While Deutsche Bank said that license sales, when readjusted for currencies, have not fallen 8 pct but were flat, Goldman Sachs estimates the strong euro could lower sales growth by 2.0-2.5 pct.
"If the US dollar were to hold current levels of 1.07 versus the euro for the rest of the year, it could have a negative impact on top-line growth of up to 5.8 pct," the bank added.
Another interesting detail will be the geographical split of the results, where analysts expect a slight increase in US results, they said.

schrieb am 26.01.03 15:28:59

Beitrag Nr. 165 ()

26.01.2003 13:37 OPEC aims to cut crude price to 25 usd/barrel - Saudi oil minister
DAVOS (AFX) - Saudi Oil Minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi said at the World Economic Forum here that OPEC will try to reduce the price of crude oil to 25 usd a barrel from the current level of around 33 usd.
OPEC President Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah meanwhile said that the cartel could consider a cut in output when it meets March 11 if an expected surplus exists at that time.
"By March we will see a three million (barrels per day, bpd) surplus... For sure if there is a surplus we will look at cutting (output)," the OPEC President told Agence France-Presse on the margins of a meeting on security of oil supply.

schrieb am 26.01.03 16:16:28

Beitrag Nr. 166 ()

***********************************************************
********************Montag 27.1.2003********************
***********************************************************

Bank of Japan mit dem Sitzungsprotokoll.

16:00 USA Hausverkäufe zR 5,56 Mio. R 5,60 C 5,61 Mio. A 5,80 Mio.

American Express Q4 EPS: zR 0,36 R 0,51 (im Handelsverlauf)

nach Handelsschluß ist vielleicht noch Vitesse interessant mit EPS: zR -0,12 R -0,06

Ansonten außerordentliche Versammlung bei Mobilcom und Vodafone mit Q3 Zahlen und im Dax wird es noch mal Spannend mit vorläufigen Jahreszahlen von Altana.

Darüber hinaus gibt es von der Handelskammer in USA noch eine Sitzung zu Brasilens wirtschaftlicher Zukunft und die Besprechungen in Davos bezüglich des Iraks dürften auch die Börsen weiter beeinflussen.

Die deutschen Arbeitsmarktdaten wurden ja wie gewöhnlich aus dem Sauhaufen der Bundesanstalt für Arbeit an die Bild und die Welt ausgeplaudert. Da wird Clement am Abend im Wahlkampf wohl kaum noch einen positiven Eindruck hinterlassen können.

Der koreanische Wurm hat wohl so einiges im Netz lahmgelegt, und leider sind einige meiner Quellen zensiert worden und haben nun Filter.

Damit ist es wieder mal etwas schwieriger geworden an die Informationen zu kommen.

Allen einen guten Handelsstart am Montag.

schrieb am 26.01.03 17:29:28

Beitrag Nr. 167 ()

Chavez says Venezuela oil output at 1.32 mln bpd

PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez on Sunday said the country`s oil
production was currently at 1.32 million barrels per day, but
would rise to 2.6 million within one month to six weeks.
Oil production in Venezuela, the world`s fifth-biggest
exporter, has been disrupted by an 8-week-old strike to demand
the leftist leader resign and early elections be held. The oil
industry is operating far below its usual levels of about 3.1
million barrels per day.
Chavez was in this southern Brazilian city to attend a
rally of support for his besieged government at the World
Social Forum (WSF), a six-day meeting of leftist intellectuals,
grass-roots social groups and nongovernmental organizations.
Chavez was scheduled to hold a news conference later
Sunday.

Irgendwann werden auch die Schiffe den Weltmarkt erreichen.

schrieb am 26.01.03 17:55:27

Beitrag Nr. 168 ()

Slammer" -- that is rapidly spreading across the Internet via Microsoft SQL
servers.

The worm is responsible for large amounts of Internet traffic as well as
millions of UDP/IP probes causing the Internet and online service to be
inaccessible.

- Reports of major Internet Service Providers (ISPs), banking services
and telecommunications worldwide have been affected
- Severe latency in domain name service (DNS) causing Web sites to be
completely unreachable
- Other nations affected include South Korea`s Internet infrastructure
which has come to a stand still

This worm exploits MS/SQL servers vulnerable to the SQL Server Resolution
service buffer overflow (CVE CAN-2002-0649). Once a vulnerable computer is
compromised, the worm will infect that target, randomly select a new target, and
resend the exploit and propagation code to that host.

Chris Rouland and Dan Ingevaldson of ISS X-Force research and development
team responsible for the discovery and naming of this worm are available to
provide commentary. Please call 646-391-6659 or 404-432-8657.

Impact:

The Slammer is generating a damaging level of network traffic when it scans
for targets that are vulnerable. Billions of attacks have been detected in the
last 12 hours from ISS Global Threat Operations Center (GTOC).

Description:

The Slammer worm propagates via Microsoft SQL installations without patches
from Microsoft Security Bulletin MS02-039 or higher. The main function of the
Slammer worm is to continue propagation. No Denial of Service or backdoor
functionality is incorporated into the worm. Infection can be removed with a
reboot, however without protection in place, it is likely that vulnerable
servers will be quickly re-infected.

The Slammer worm seeks to replicate itself and does not try to compromise
servers or retain access to compromised hosts. The Slammer worm does not infect
or modify files, it only exists in memory. The worm cannot be stopped by
anti-virus programs.

Affected Programs:

Microsoft SQL Server 2000 Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 Note:
Unpatched or base installations older than SP3 are vulnerable.

Recommendations:

The ISS Dynamic Threat Protection platform has protected ISS customers
through its RealSecure Network Sensor XPU 20.4 and XPU 5.3 (available as of
9/17/02) or greater, and Internet Scanner XPU 6.15 (available as of 7/25/02).

ISS X-Force recommends that system administrators immediately take steps to
protect their networks. To remove the infection, apply the necessary patches
listed below and restart the server. This action will remove the worm from
memory.

The following ISS updates address the issues described in this alert. These
updates are available from the ISS Download center (http://www.iss.net/download)
Additionally ISS X-Force recommends blocking UDP port 1433 and 1434 traffic to
protect SQL Server databases with a firewall or packet filter.

Microsoft SQL Server customers should refer to the following address for
information and securing Microsoft SQL Server against this buffer overflow:
http://www.microsoft.com/technet/security/bulletin/MS02-039.…

Additional Information:

The Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) project has assigned the Name
CAN-2002-0649 to this issue. This is a candidate for inclusion in the CVE list
http://cve.mitre.org/), which standardizes names for security problems.

- About Internet Security Systems (ISS)

Founded in 1994, Internet Security Systems, Inc. (ISS) is a world leader in
Dynamic Threat Protection software and services that protect critical
information assets from an ever-changing spectrum of threats and misuse.
Internet Security Systems is headquartered in Atlanta, GA, with additional
operations throughout the Americas, Asia, Australia, Europe and the Middle East." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">26.01.2003 17:48:15

Major worm hits internet, online and telecommunications services interrupted
Major worm hits internet, online and telecommunications services
interruptedPRNewswire
Georgia, AtlantaJanuary 26

Georgia, Atlanta, January 26 /PRNewswire/ -- - Internet Security Systems,
X-Force Security Alert, January 25, 2003 `Microsoft SQL Slammer Worm
Propagation`

On January 25, 2003 at approximately 12:00 a.m., Internet Security Systems
(ISS) was the first to discover and name a new worm it is tracking -- "SQL
Slammer" -- that is rapidly spreading across the Internet via Microsoft SQL
servers.

The worm is responsible for large amounts of Internet traffic as well as
millions of UDP/IP probes causing the Internet and online service to be
inaccessible.

- Reports of major Internet Service Providers (ISPs), banking services
and telecommunications worldwide have been affected
- Severe latency in domain name service (DNS) causing Web sites to be
completely unreachable
- Other nations affected include South Korea`s Internet infrastructure
which has come to a stand still

This worm exploits MS/SQL servers vulnerable to the SQL Server Resolution
service buffer overflow (CVE CAN-2002-0649). Once a vulnerable computer is
compromised, the worm will infect that target, randomly select a new target, and
resend the exploit and propagation code to that host.

Chris Rouland and Dan Ingevaldson of ISS X-Force research and development
team responsible for the discovery and naming of this worm are available to
provide commentary. Please call 646-391-6659 or 404-432-8657.

Impact:

The Slammer is generating a damaging level of network traffic when it scans
for targets that are vulnerable. Billions of attacks have been detected in the
last 12 hours from ISS Global Threat Operations Center (GTOC).

Description:

The Slammer worm propagates via Microsoft SQL installations without patches
from Microsoft Security Bulletin MS02-039 or higher. The main function of the
Slammer worm is to continue propagation. No Denial of Service or backdoor
functionality is incorporated into the worm. Infection can be removed with a
reboot, however without protection in place, it is likely that vulnerable
servers will be quickly re-infected.

The Slammer worm seeks to replicate itself and does not try to compromise
servers or retain access to compromised hosts. The Slammer worm does not infect
or modify files, it only exists in memory. The worm cannot be stopped by
anti-virus programs.

Affected Programs:

Microsoft SQL Server 2000 Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 Note:
Unpatched or base installations older than SP3 are vulnerable.

Recommendations:

The ISS Dynamic Threat Protection platform has protected ISS customers
through its RealSecure Network Sensor XPU 20.4 and XPU 5.3 (available as of
9/17/02) or greater, and Internet Scanner XPU 6.15 (available as of 7/25/02).

ISS X-Force recommends that system administrators immediately take steps to
protect their networks. To remove the infection, apply the necessary patches
listed below and restart the server. This action will remove the worm from
memory.

The following ISS updates address the issues described in this alert. These
updates are available from the ISS Download center (http://www.iss.net/download)
Additionally ISS X-Force recommends blocking UDP port 1433 and 1434 traffic to
protect SQL Server databases with a firewall or packet filter.

Microsoft SQL Server customers should refer to the following address for
information and securing Microsoft SQL Server against this buffer overflow:
http://www.microsoft.com/technet/security/bulletin/MS02-039.…

Additional Information:

The Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) project has assigned the Name
CAN-2002-0649 to this issue. This is a candidate for inclusion in the CVE list
http://cve.mitre.org/), which standardizes names for security problems.

- About Internet Security Systems (ISS)

Founded in 1994, Internet Security Systems, Inc. (ISS) is a world leader in
Dynamic Threat Protection software and services that protect critical
information assets from an ever-changing spectrum of threats and misuse.
Internet Security Systems is headquartered in Atlanta, GA, with additional
operations throughout the Americas, Asia, Australia, Europe and the Middle East.

Kein Wunder das ich nicht an die Quellen komme.

Na dann werden Symantec, Macafee und wie die Internetsicherheits- und Antivirus Firmen heißen mal wieder Aufwind bekommen.

schrieb am 26.01.03 18:02:47

Beitrag Nr. 169 ()

unter Berufung auf britische Regierungskreise berichtete, sollen
die Inspektoren erst am 1. März ihren Abschlussbericht vorlegen.
Dann sollen zudem die gesammelten Informationen über die
Produktion von Massenvernichtungswaffen in Irak öffentlich
gemacht werden, heißt es in dem Bericht weiter. Zuvor würden
Informanten und Verbindungsleute der USA Irak verlassen.
Bis Anfang März soll der Zeitung zufolge auch der
Truppen-Aufmarsch beider Länder in der Golf-Region abgeschlossen
sein. Die USA und Großbritannien haben Irak mit Krieg gedroht,
sollte das Land nicht die Abrüstungsauflagen der Vereinten
Nationen (UNO) erfüllen. Am Montag sollen die Waffeninspekteure
dem UNO-Sicherheitsrat über ihre Suche nach
Massenvernichtungswaffen in Irak berichten. Zahlreiche Länder,
darunter Frankreich und Deutschland, haben mehr Zeit für die
Arbeit der Kontrolleure gefordert." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Zeitung - USA wollen UNO-Inspektoren Frist bis März geben
Berlin, 26. Jan (Reuters) - Die USA und Großbritannien
wollen den UNO-Inspektoren für ihre Arbeit in Irak einem
Zeitungsbericht zufolge Zeit bis zum 1. März gewähren.
Wie "Die Welt" am Sonntag vorab aus ihrer Montagausgabe
unter Berufung auf britische Regierungskreise berichtete, sollen
die Inspektoren erst am 1. März ihren Abschlussbericht vorlegen.
Dann sollen zudem die gesammelten Informationen über die
Produktion von Massenvernichtungswaffen in Irak öffentlich
gemacht werden, heißt es in dem Bericht weiter. Zuvor würden
Informanten und Verbindungsleute der USA Irak verlassen.
Bis Anfang März soll der Zeitung zufolge auch der
Truppen-Aufmarsch beider Länder in der Golf-Region abgeschlossen
sein. Die USA und Großbritannien haben Irak mit Krieg gedroht,
sollte das Land nicht die Abrüstungsauflagen der Vereinten
Nationen (UNO) erfüllen. Am Montag sollen die Waffeninspekteure
dem UNO-Sicherheitsrat über ihre Suche nach
Massenvernichtungswaffen in Irak berichten. Zahlreiche Länder,
darunter Frankreich und Deutschland, haben mehr Zeit für die
Arbeit der Kontrolleure gefordert.

Mal sehen ob sich die Situation dann erst mal entspannt. Der Irak hat sich ja geäußert, daß die so oder so damit rechnen, daß die USA einmarschieren wird. Ob früher oder später sagen die werden die Ammis eh einmarschieren.

schrieb am 26.01.03 18:06:59

Beitrag Nr. 170 ()

Der Dow Jones die letzen 10 Tage:

Und der Dax die letzten 10 Tage:

schrieb am 27.01.03 17:56:21

Beitrag Nr. 171 ()

Der Markt hat wohl gar keine Schmerzgrenze mehr...

schrieb am 28.01.03 21:59:32

Beitrag Nr. 172 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Montag:

Die Hausverkäufe bestehender Häuser haben ein Rekordhoch im letzten Jahr erreicht:

the end of the year and it moved more people into houses," said
Kevin Logan, senior economist for Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein.
Mortgage interest rates have defied economists`
expectations of an upswing as uncertainty grows about a war in
Iraq and the economy fails to rebound as anticipated.
Regionally, new home sales in the Midwest surged 28 percent
to 299,000 in December, a record, while sales in the densely
populated Northeast slumped to 48,000, the lowest level since
January 1996. Sales in the South were unchanged for the third
consecutive month at 462,000 and sales in the West fell 7.5
percent to 273,000.
For 2002 as a whole, new home sales were 189,000 in the
Midwest, 449,000 in the South and 274,000 in the West, all
records. But sales of 64,000 in the Northeast were the lowest
level since 1995.
Building restrictions in the Northeast may have had
something to do with the regional disparity, said David
Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of
Homebuilders.
"One possibility is that these land use controls in the
older part of the country can really be a problem for new home
activity. Existing homes activity in 2002 was solid, even in
December," Seiders said.
New home inventories were low, falling to a supply of 3.8
months at December`s sales rate.
Housing has been one of the few bright spots in the dismal
U.S. economic picture, as low mortgage rates coupled with
slumping stock markets and steadily rising home values have
drawn Americans to spend on houses and apartments. The popular
30-year fixed rate mortgage has been below 6 percent for six
weeks, a string unprecedented since mortgage financier Freddie
Mac started recording the data in 1971.
In spite of expectations of a slowdown, housing has posted
a recent string of strong results. On Monday, the National
Association of Realtors reported existing U.S. home sales
surged 5.3 percent in December, while sales for all of 2002 set
a record.
The Census Bureau said on Monday homeownership in the
fourth quarter of 2002 edged to a fresh seasonally adjusted
high of 68.2 percent. And U.S. housing starts jumped to their
highest rate in December in 16 years, the government reported
last week.
However, mortgage refinancings may have started to slow.
The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of
America for the week ending Jan. 17 showed refinancing
applications down 6.1 percent from the previous week.
While the pace retreated slightly from the prior week,
total loan applications were up 55.5 percent from a year ago
and home loan refinancings were up 96.3 percent." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US new home sales rose 3.5 pct in December
(Adds analyst comment, byline)
By Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Sales of new, single-family
U.S. homes surged a more-than-expected 3.5 percent to a fresh
record in December, the government said on Tuesday, as low
interest rates continued to entice home buyers.
Sales of newly built homes for 2002 as a whole were
976,000, the highest since the Commerce Department began
keeping the statistics in 1963.
Sales of newly built homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 1.082 million units in December from a
downwardly revised 1.045 million in November.
New home sales beat the expectations of analysts polled by
Reuters who had forecast a 1.045 million unit annual rate.
"It shows the power of low interest rates. Rates fell at
the end of the year and it moved more people into houses," said
Kevin Logan, senior economist for Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein.
Mortgage interest rates have defied economists`
expectations of an upswing as uncertainty grows about a war in
Iraq and the economy fails to rebound as anticipated.
Regionally, new home sales in the Midwest surged 28 percent
to 299,000 in December, a record, while sales in the densely
populated Northeast slumped to 48,000, the lowest level since
January 1996. Sales in the South were unchanged for the third
consecutive month at 462,000 and sales in the West fell 7.5
percent to 273,000.
For 2002 as a whole, new home sales were 189,000 in the
Midwest, 449,000 in the South and 274,000 in the West, all
records. But sales of 64,000 in the Northeast were the lowest
level since 1995.
Building restrictions in the Northeast may have had
something to do with the regional disparity, said David
Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of
Homebuilders.
"One possibility is that these land use controls in the
older part of the country can really be a problem for new home
activity. Existing homes activity in 2002 was solid, even in
December," Seiders said.
New home inventories were low, falling to a supply of 3.8
months at December`s sales rate.
Housing has been one of the few bright spots in the dismal
U.S. economic picture, as low mortgage rates coupled with
slumping stock markets and steadily rising home values have
drawn Americans to spend on houses and apartments. The popular
30-year fixed rate mortgage has been below 6 percent for six
weeks, a string unprecedented since mortgage financier Freddie
Mac started recording the data in 1971.
In spite of expectations of a slowdown, housing has posted
a recent string of strong results. On Monday, the National
Association of Realtors reported existing U.S. home sales
surged 5.3 percent in December, while sales for all of 2002 set
a record.
The Census Bureau said on Monday homeownership in the
fourth quarter of 2002 edged to a fresh seasonally adjusted
high of 68.2 percent. And U.S. housing starts jumped to their
highest rate in December in 16 years, the government reported
last week.
However, mortgage refinancings may have started to slow.
The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of
America for the week ending Jan. 17 showed refinancing
applications down 6.1 percent from the previous week.
While the pace retreated slightly from the prior week,
total loan applications were up 55.5 percent from a year ago
and home loan refinancings were up 96.3 percent.

Ich habe mal eine aktuelle Grafik dazu gefügt:

Aus meiner Sicht positive Nachrichten.

Vitesse Semiconductor Q1 net loss
Thomson First Call average estimate was loss $0.06/shr.
CAMARILLO, Calif., Jan. 27 (Reuters) -
VITESSE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Statement of Operations -- GAAP basis (unaudited)
(in thousands except per share data)
Three months ended
Dec. 31, 2002 Dec. 31, 2001 Sep 30, 2002
Revenues $ 38,212 $ 39,149 $ 38,102
Costs and expenses:
Cost of revenues 19,063 33,916 19,015
Engineering and development
30,875 45,031 39,584
Selling, general and
administrative 14,396 17,471 15,397
Restructuring charge -- 64,299 3,046
Amortization of
intangible assets 2,146 3,146 2,145
Loss from operations (28,268) (124,714) (41,085)
Other income (expense), net 699 835 (4,645)
Gain on extinguishment
of debt 16,550 17,098 49,169
Income (loss) before
income taxes (11,019) (106,781) 3,439
Income tax expense (benefit) 30 101 (222)
Net income (loss) (11,049) (106,882) 3,661
Net income (loss) per
share
-- basic and diluted (0.06) (0.54) 0.02
Weighted average shares
-- basic 200,250 197,543 200,077
Weighted average shares
-- diluted 200,250 197,543 200,416

Damit ist der Verlust gegenüber dem Vorjahr verringert worden, und liegt mit dem EPS in den Erwartungen, die Umsätze sind leicht gegenüber dem Vorquartal zurückgegangen.

Vodafone konnte im abgelaufenen Quartal Q3 seinen Kundenstamm fast um doppelt so viel wie von den Analysten erwartet ausbauen.

Soweit die Daten in Kürze vom Montag, einem Tag an dem man nur auf den Irak geschaut hat, um zu sehen, was hier am Ablaufdatum des Ultimatums passiert. Wie wir wissen haben die Amerikaner betont, auch die Atombombe einsetzen zu wollen. Und Frankreich hat sich der eher defensiven Haltung von Deutschland angeschlossen. Die Amerikaner bekräftigten nicht zum ersten mal, auch einen Alleingang gegen den Irak waren zu wollen. Darüber hinaus wir hier von Seiten der USA fleißig mit der Türkei verhandelt, um Stützpunkte für einen Angriff dort zu bekommen, da Saudi Arabien diesbezüglich zurückhaltend ist.

schrieb am 01.02.03 16:07:11

Beitrag Nr. 173 ()

OPEC chief warns of oil glut, price crash

ABU DHABI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah warned on Saturday that world oil markets are in danger of tilting into oversupply during the second quarter and triggering a price crash.

For now, the threat of war in the Middle East, which supplies 40 percent of world crude exports, and a two-month oil strike in OPEC producer Venezuela have pushed prices well beyond $30.

Attiyah, also oil minister of Qatar, said war fever had driven up crude prices and he saw Venezuelan output coming back and weighing on already well-supplied global markets.

Asked whether he feared a potential price collapse during the second quarter which typically sees a seasonal demand decline of about two million barrels per day (bpd), he told reporters:

"Yes, this is one point we should worry about, assuming the scenario as it is today and, for sure, if Venezuela is coming back."

Attiyah, in Abu Dhabi for an Energy and Environment conference, predicted a particularly grim outlook from April if exports in strike-bound Venezuela are fully restored.

"If Venezuela comes back (to full capacity), we could have four million bpd or more floating," he said, adding that the excess could be at least three million bpd based on current Venezuelan output.

The OPEC chief said output from the South American producer, in the throes of a two-month strike, stood now at about 1.4 million bpd, up from a low of 150,000 bpd in December.

He reckoned flows could climb in a few weeks to near full capacity of 2.8 million bpd.

With that scenario in mind, Attiyah, due to meet his counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the UAE later on Saturday, said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would have to confront the possibility of either a global surplus or shortage when it meets on March 11 to review output policy.

Given Washington`s military preparations in the Gulf, the cartel could find itself gathering around the time of a U.S. strike on Iraq, the world`s eight biggest oil exporter.

Attiyah repeated that the producers` group was prepared to cover any supply gap which could develop if a U.S. assault on Iraq disrupted exports there of some two million bpd.

OPEC already has lifted supplies by 1.5 million bpd from February 1 to cover the shortfall from Venezuela, but the increase has failed to cool off overheated oil markets.

But Attiyah reiterated that OPEC has done all it can now to control prices.

"OPEC has done what it can to stabilise the oil market," he said. "We believe very strongly there is no shortage affecting the market."

The OPEC president predicted only a short-lived rise in oil prices if war erupted in Iraq. "I believe there will be no panic. Any price spike would be brief,"he said.

"I don`t believe some analysts who say prices will reach $100, or $60. There is no historic evidence to support this."

History indeed supports the OPEC chief.

The 1991 Gulf War saw oil prices plunge from a peak of more than $40 a barrel to $18 once dealers were convinced that allied bombing of Iraq and its forces in Kuwait had destroyed any threat to Saudi oil supplies and the International Energy Agency made an emergency release of stocks.

Oil market analysts share Attiyah`s expectation of lower prices. A Reuters poll of analysts projects that world oil prices, now at two year highs, are set to slump by $10 a barrel in the second half of the year after any U.S.-led war against Iraq.

Wie es aussieht könnte der Ölpreis in den Keller gehen und damit die Wirtschaft ein positives Momentum gewinnen.

schrieb am 01.02.03 17:19:10

Beitrag Nr. 174 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Dienstag den 28.1.2002:

Japan Einzelhandelsumsätze Dezember vorl. -3,4% gg Vj

10:00 Deutschland ifo Geschäftsklima-Index Januar West: 87,4 (erw. 87,5) Ost: 97,4 (Vm: 97,2)

MUNICH, Germany, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The German Ifo economics…

West Germany JAN 03 DEC 02
Business climate 87.4 87.3 (87.1)
Business conditions 77.1 76.9 (76.8)
Business expectations 98.1 98.0 (97.9)

East Germany JAN 03 DEC 02
Business climate 97.4 97.2
Business conditions 114.1 115.5 (115.4)
Business expectations 81.6 80.0

NOTE - The headline west German climate index was slightly below economists` average forecast for a rise to 87.5. Forecasts ranged between 86.4 and 88.0.

Previously reported data that have been revised are given in brackets.

14:30 USA Auftragseingang langlebiger Güter Dezember +0,2% gg Vm(erw. 1,0%)

U.S. Dec durable goods orders rose 0.2 pct

WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department
seasonally adjusted data on durable goods orders,
with percent changes from prior months.

PERCENT CHANGES: Dec Nov Oct
New Orders 0.2 -1.3 1.7
Ex-Transportation 1.1 -2.0 1.6
Ex-Defense -0.2 -2.3 3.8
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders 0.5 -0.6 0.9
Primary Metals 1.7 -5.2 -1.2
Gen. Machinery 0.5 -2.7 2.4
Computers/Electronics 3.2 -1.4 2.7
Computer/related 12.1 -6.0 -3.3
Communications -21.2 -6.0 69.1
Electrical/appliances 1.0 -0.7 -1.8
Transp. Equip. -1.9 0.6 1.8
Motor vehicles/parts -4.5 -6.1 3.6
Nondefense aircraft/
parts 21.4 22.1 -1.7
Defense aircraft/
parts -9.1 11.5 -8.1
Capital goods 4.2 1.3 -1.6
NonDefense cap goods 2.8 -1.3 4.4
NonDefense cap goods
ex aircraft -0.1 -3.1 5.4
Defense cap goods 17.4 34.2 -43.5

PERCENT CHANGES: Dec Nov Oct
Total unfilled orders -0.2 -0.8 -0.9
Total inventories 0.9 -0.2 -0.2
Total shipments -1.5 -1.6 1.3

BILLIONS OF DLRS: Dec Nov Oct
New Orders 170.063 169.691 171.895
Ex-Transportation 120.550 119.231 121.719
Ex-Defense 162.257 162.572 166.367
Manufacturing with
unfilled orders 118.182 117.592 118.360
Primary Metals 10.812 10.627 11.210
Gen. Machinery 22.014 21.910 22.519
Computers/Electronics 25.957 25.156 25.521
Computer/related 7.527 6.712 7.138
Communications 3.927 4.984 5.302
Electrical/appliances 8.983 8.891 8.957
Transp. Equip. 49.513 50.460 50.176
Motor vehicles/parts 35.049 36.695 39.060
Nondefense aircraft/
parts 6.882 5.667 4.641
Defense aircraft/
parts 2.662 2.928 2.625
Capital goods 62.747 60.227 59.476
NonDefense cap goods 56.030 54.504 55.213
NonDefense cap goods
ex aircraft 51.819 51.860 53.517
Defense cap goods 6.717 5.723 4.263

BILLIONS OF DLRS: Dec Nov Oct
Total unfilled orders 476.935 477.678 481.405
Total inventories 265.123 262.630 263.040
Total shipments 170.806 173.418 176.241
N/A - not available

PREVIOUSLY REPORTED PERCENT CHANGES:
Nov Oct Sept
Durable Goods -1.5 1.7 -4.6
Factory Orders -0.8 1.4 -2.4

FORECAST:
U.S. Dec durable goods orders +0.9 pct

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:
U.S. 2002 TOTAL DURABLES ORDERS -0.2 PCT VS 2001 -11.6 PCT
U.S. DEC DURABLES INVENTORIES +0.9 PCT, BIGGEST GAIN SINCE
JUNE`00 (+1.0)

Die Daten waren sehr gemischt zu interpretieren. Zunächst waren die Order mal wieder im Plus, was ganz schön ist, aber die Erwartungen wurden nicht erreicht. Auch ist hier ein starker Einbruch bei den Transportation und Communicaiton Zahlen zu sehen. Ex Transportation Zahlen waren ja sogar bei +1,1% an neuen Orders. Erfreulich ist hingegen die positive Entwicklung bei den Computer bezogenen Auftragseingängen. Die Zahlen bekommen ein

wobei ich dieses nicht sehr stark gewichten möchte.

16:00 USA Verbrauchervertrauen Januar 79,0 (erw. 78,5)

TABLE-U.S. consumer confidence falls to 79.0 in Jan
NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index fell to 79.0 in January from an upwardly revised 80.7 in
December, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday.
The December figure was originally reported at 80.3.
Economists polled by Reuters on average had forecast the
January index would fall to 78.1.
Below are the highlights of the survey:

COMPOSITE SERIES INDEX NUMBERS (1985=100 Seasonally Adjusted)
Jan Dec Rev From Nov
Overall Index 79.0 80.7 80.3 84.9
Present Situation 75.4 69.6 69.9 78.3
Expectations 81.4 88.1 87.2 89.3

PRESENT SITUATION INDEX: PERCENT CHANGE
Jan Dec Rev From Nov
Business Conditions
Good 15.0 14.5 14.6 16.1
Bad 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.7
Normal 58.5 59.6 59.6 58.2
Employment
Jobs Plentiful 14.5 12.3 12.4 14.2
Jobs not so plentiful 56.7 58.0 57.8 58.5
Jobs hard to get 28.8 29.7 29.8 27.3

EXPECTATIONS FOR SIX MONTHS HENCE: PERCENT CHANGE
Jan Dec Rev From Nov
Business Conditions
Better 17.7 21.1 20.8 20.3
Worse 14.0 11.0 11.0 11.3
Same 68.3 67.9 68.2 68.4
Employment
More jobs 14.3 15.4 15.1 15.4
Fewer jobs 20.9 20.2 20.2 18.8
Same 64.8 64.4 64.7 65.8
Income
Increase 18.4 19.6 18.7 19.4
Decrease 10.3 10.7 10.6 9.9
Same 71.3 69.7 70.7 70.7

Diese Zahlen waren zunächst mal etwas über den Erwartungen, was den present Situation Index angeht. Hier scheint sich vor allem die Situation auf dem Arbeitsmarkt verbessert zu haben. Im Ausblick für die nächsten 6 Moate sieht es allerdings nicht so gut aus. Was aus meiner Sicht recht interessant ist, da doch die Analysten und die Bundesregierung immer beteuern, daß es in 6 Monaten bergauf gehen soll. Aus diesem Grunde aus meiner Sicht hier ein

, was etwas anderes ist, als die Interpretation, die man bekommen würde, wenn man sich nur den Index und die Erwartungen anschaut. Weiterhin ist anzumerken, daß dieser Index nur aus einer Umfrage von 5000 Haushalten gewonnen wird.

16:00 USA Hausverkäufe (Neubau) Dezember 1,082 Mio. (erw. 1,04 Mio.)

U.S. Dec new home sales rose 3.5 pct

WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department
Reported sales of new single-family homes, seasonally adjusted,
with percent changes from prior month (numbers in 1,000s).

Pct Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev) Dec`01
Total Units 3.5 1,082 1,045 1,069 1,006 1,011 979
By Region: Pct Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev)
Northeast -12.7 48 55 44 58 60
Midwest 28.3 299 233 257 182 182
South unch 462 462 475 462 464
West -7.5 273 295 293 304 305
Total December sales of new single-family homes rose 10.5
percent from December 2001.

In 1,000s: Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev)
Actual Units Sold 72 75 76 77 77
Sales Prices:
Mean 238.5 219.8 218.9 229.2 225.5
Median 186.4 173.8 167.3 184.4 178.9
Note-Actual number of new single-family units sold is not
seasonally adjusted.

Monthly percent changes of total sales, seasonally adjusted,
from prior months as follows:
Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev) Sep (Prev)
Total Units 3.9 5.7 -4.7 -4.0 0.9 0.6

Number of Months: Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev)
Supply of Homes 3.8 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.0
1,000 units: Dec Nov (Prev) Oct (Prev)
End-Month Inventory 338 336 335 334 333

FORECAST:
Reuters survey of economists forecast:
U.S. Dec new home sales annual rate of 1,045,000 units

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:
U.S. DEC HOME SALES RATE OF 1,082,000 UNITS IS HIGHEST ON
RECORD
U.S. 2002 HOME SALES +7.5 PCT TO RECORD 976,000 UNITS FROM
2001 908,000 MLN
U.S. DEC MIDWEST HOME SALES RATE OF 299,000 UNITS IS HIGHEST
ON RECORD

Die Historical Notes sagen hier schon alles. Die Hausverkäufe sind unglaublich hoch, und haben jede Vorhersage übertroffen. Fragt sich ob das noch viel gesteigert werden kann.

Und hier noch ein Paar Meldungen von Unternehmen am Dienstag:

14:20 ET AT&T Wireless (AWE) 6.46 -0.24: -- Update -- As not…

10:03 ET Procter & Gamble (PG) 84.53 +1.48: -- Update -- In …

08:48 ET Vitesse Semi upgraded at Pacific Growth (VTSS) 2.08…

08:44 ET Taiwan Semi capex guidance negative for semi equipm…

08:11 ET UPS beats by $0.02; issues Q1 and FY03 guidance (UP…

Der kurzfristige Ausblick könnte etwas enttäuschen hier. Langfristig scheint es hingegen möglicherweise hinzuhauen.

07:51 ET AT&T Wireless beats by $0.01 (AWE) 6.70: Reports Q4…
siehe oben, leider enttäuschend was auf den ersten Blick nicht so zu sehen ist.

07:18 ET Procter & Gamble beats by $0.01, guides up (PG) 83.…
Sehr solide über die letzten Jahre.

07:11 ET DuPont beats by $0.03 (DD) 38.46: Reports Q4 (Dec) …

schrieb am 01.02.03 17:25:12

Beitrag Nr. 175 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Mittwoch den 29.1.2003:

00:50 Japan Industrieproduktion Dezember vorl. -0,1% gg Vm, …
Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr eigentlich mal gute Zahlen hier in Japan.

10:15 Italien
Export November 23,42 Mrd. EUR
Import November…
Etwas alte Zahlen hier von November, die Handlesbilanz ist positiv und das ist positiv.

20:17 USA FED: keine Änderung der Leitzinsen

Ich sehe auch keinen aktuellen Bedarf für weitere Zinssenkungen in den USA. Steuersenkungen sowohl hierzulande als auch dort gefallen wir da besser.

schrieb am 01.02.03 18:38:43

Beitrag Nr. 176 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Donnerstag den 30.1.2003:

08:45 Frankreich Geschäftsklima-Index Januar 98 (Vm: 99)
French Jan business confidence down to 98

PARIS, Jan 30 (Reuters) - French national statistics office
INSEE said on Thursday the "composite" business climate index in
its January business sentiment survey fell to 98 from a
confirmed reading of 99 in December.
The composite index gauges sentiment on the business cycle
by combining the survey`s seven main components: stocks, past
production levels, total and foreign order book levels, personal
price and production outlooks and views on general production.
A positive figure shows the percentage points by which the
percentage of respondents saying things had improved or risen
outnumbered the percentage saying things had worsened or fallen.
Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul
Composite business climate 98 99 96 93 97 98
Recent past output -2 -1 -7 -13 -1 -6
Finished product stocks 12 11 13 13 13 10
Overall orders and demand -17 -19 -22 -26 -26 -20
Foreign orders and demand -15 -13 -16 -21 -22 -13
Personal business outlook 0 7 2 -3 3 4
Personal prices outlook -3* -6 -6 -4* -9 -2*
General business outlook -31 -24 -33 -38 -26 -16
*Figures for January, April, July and October correspond to
answers given in INSEE`s quarterly industrial survey, expressed
in quantitative terms which are then translated into qualitative
terms. The indicators for those months must be considered
separately as they underestimate rises and falls in prices,
INSEE said.
Hier haben wir nun endlich mal Januar Zahlen. Leider haben sie es wieder mal nicht über 100 geschafft, aber mit 98 sind sie ja fast unverändert, so daß man sich die einzelnen Komponenten mal ansehen muß. Die overall orders and demand componente ist etwas gestiegen, was ich positiv hervorheben möchte. Auch was die Preise angeht ist der Ausblick ganz zuversichtlich. Aber dafür ist der general businnes Ausblick der im Dezember schon so schön gestiegen war sehr zurückgefallen. Deshalb kein up oder down für diesen Inidkator.

08:50 Frankreich Produzentenpreis-Index Dezember +0,5% gg Vm, +1,7% gg Vj

Auf der einen Seite wollen wir keine steigenden Produzentenpreise, auf der anderen Seite auch keine Deflation. Schon komisch diesen Indikator daher zu beurteilen. Im Grunde ist das noch eine gesunde Entwicklung, aber man kann überall einen Grund finden warum der Indikator enttäuscht.

11:00 Deutschland VDMA-Auftragseingänge Dezember
-10% gg Vj; Oktober bis Dezember: -2% gg Vj

German Dec engineering orders down 10 pct y/y-VDMA
BERLIN, Jan 30 (Reuters) - German engineering orders in
December fell by 10 percent in real terms from the previous
year, engineering industry association VDMA said on
Thursday.
In the October-December period orders fell two percent
from a year ago.

DECEMBER CHANGE IN PCT
overall -10 pct y/y
of which German +7 pct y/y
foreign -19 pct y/y

OCT-DEC CHANGE IN PCT
overall -2 pct y/y
of which German -3 pct y/y
foreign -2 pct y/y

Schon etwas komische Daten, so wird aus dem Ausland offensichtlich deutlich weniger geordert, aber die Inlandsnachfrage scheint im Jahresvergleich zugelegt zu haben. Ich denke das ist noch durch den Anschlag auf die Twin Towers zu erklären, und den Auftragseinbruch den es im Dezember 2001 dann gegeben hat. Alles in allem aber keine Zahlen die mir gefallen.

11:45 Italien Stundenlöhne Dezember unv. gg Vm, +2,1% gg Vj

11:45 Italien Produzentenpreis-Index Dezember +0,3% gg Vm, +1,5% gg Vj

14:30 USA Arbeitskosten-Index 4. Quartal 0,7% gg Vq (erw. 0,9%)

U.S. Q4 employment costs rose 0.7 pct

WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department
employment cost data for U.S. workers in percent changes.

Seasonally adj. Unadjusted
3 months ended: 12 months ended:
Dec02 Sept02 Prev Dec02 Sept02 Prev Dec01

Total Compensation 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.4 3.7 3.7 4.1
Wages and Salaries 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.7
Benefit Costs 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.2
State/Local Govt 0.9 1.5 1.5 4.1 3.8 3.8 4.2
Private Industry 0.7 0.6 0.6 3.2 3.7 3.7 4.2
Goods-Producing 1.0 0.7 0.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8
Service-Producing 0.5 0.6 0.6 3.1 3.7 3.7 4.3

Employment Cost Index Dec02 Sept02 Prev
(1989=100) 162.3 161.1 161.1

Unadjusted 12 months ended:
Private Industry Workers Dec02 Dec01
Wages and salaries 2.7 3.8

FORECAST:
Reuters survey of economists forecast:
+0.9 pct for Q4 employment cost index

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:
U.S. Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX LOWEST SINCE +0.4 PCT IN Q1`99
US Q4 WAGES/SALARIES +0.4 PCT VS Q3 +0.5 PCT, LOWEST SINCE
MATCHING Q1`99 (+0.4)
US 2002 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX +3.4 PCT, LOWEST SINCE
MATCHING 1999 (+3.4), 2001 +4.1 PCT

Gute News für die USA wenn die Arbeitskosten in den USA weniger steigen als in Europa. Dann sollte der Dollar vielleicht sogar die Möglichkeit haben sich etwas zu stabilisieren.

Was die Deflation in den USA angeht ist das naürlich sehr im Auge zu behalten.

14:30 USA BIP 4. Quartal (Schätzung)0,7% gg Vq (erw. 0,9%) Preis-Deflator: 1,8% gg Vq (erw. 1,4%)

U.S. Q4 GDP rose 0.7 pct
WASHINGTON, Jan. 30 (Reuters) - Commerce Department
seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product data on a
chain-weighted basis.
Following are annualized percent changes from prior quarters,
in 1996 chain dollars.

Q4-A Q3-F Q2 2002
GDP 0.7 4.0 1.3 2.4
Final Sales of
Dom. Product 1.3 3.4 -0.1 1.8
Final Sales to
Dom. Buyers 1.9 3.3 1.3 2.3
PCE price index 1.9 1.7 2.7 1.4
Core PCE price index 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7
Implicit Deflator 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.1
Consumer Spending 1.0 4.2 1.8 3.1
Durable Goods -7.3 22.8 2.0 7.4
NonDurable Goods 3.9 1.0 -0.1 3.1
Services 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.2
Business Investment 1.5 -0.8 -2.4 -5.8
Equipment/software 5.0 6.7 3.3 -1.8
Housing Investment 6.8 1.1 2.7 3.8
Exports -1.7 4.6 14.3 -1.3
Imports 3.7 3.3 22.2 3.5
Government Purchases 4.6 2.9 1.4 4.4
Federal 10.1 4.3 7.5 7.4
State and Local 1.7 2.2 -1.7 2.9
A-Advance (1st estimate). P-Preliminary (2nd). F-final (3rd.)

Seasonally adjusted annual rates, in blns of `96 chain dlrs:
Q4-A Q3-F Q2 2002
GDP 9,503.2 9,485.6 9,392.4 9,436.1
Final Sales of
Dom.Product 9,488.2 9,457.2 9,377.9 9,425.6
Final Sales of
Dom. Buyers 9,953.4 9,906.1 9,826.0 9,870.0
Consumer Spending 6,625.7 6,609.9 6,542.4 6,573.0
Durable Goods 1,012.9 1,032.4 980.7 1,000.5
NonDurable Goods 1,944.2 1,925.8 1,920.9 1,928.0
Services 3,699.1 3,687.0 3,666.2 3,673.6
Business Investment 1,183.2 1,178.7 1,181.1 1,182.8
Equipment/software 989.3 977.2 961.4 970.4
Housing Investment 393.6 387.1 386.1 387.6
Business Inventory Change 3.3 18.8 4.9 -0.5
Farm -6.4 -2.2 0.8 -0.3
Net Exports Goods/Svcs -506.9 -488.0 -487.4 -482.2
Exports 1,073.0 1,077.7 1,065.5 1,061.7
Imports 1,579.9 1,565.7 1,552.9 1,543.9
Govt. Purchases 1,735.1 1,715.6 1,703.3 1,712.8
Federal 630.2 615.1 608.7 612.9
State and Local 1,105.3 1,100.6 1,094.7 1,100.0
A-Advance (1st estimate). P-Preliminary (2nd). F-final (3rd).

FORECASTS:
Reuters survey of U.S. economists` forecast for advanced Q4:
+0.7 pct for GDP
+1.4 pct for Implicit Deflator
+1.0 pct for final sales

NOTES/HISTORICALS:
US Q4 CONSUMER SPENDING INCREASE SMALLEST SINCE +0.8 PCT IN
Q1`93
US 2002 GDP DEFLATOR +1.1 PCT, SMALLEST SINCE MATCHING RISE
IN 1963
US 2002 GDP +2.4 PCT VS 2001 GDP +0.3 PCT
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is
an inflation gauge for consumer purchases that is closely
watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The core PCE price index
excludes the volatile food and energy components.

Die Zahlen waren zwar nur in den Erwartungen, aber ich bin leicht positiv davon angehaucht, da zum ersten mal wieder die Business Investments wieder gestiegen sind.

14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe in der Woche zum 25.01.03 bei 397.000 (erw. 385.000)

Zahl der US-Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe gestiegen
Washington, 30. Jan (Reuters) - Das US-Arbeitsministerium
hat am Donnerstag in Washington folgende Daten zur Entwicklung
der Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe in der Woche zum
25. Januar veröffentlicht:

WOCHE ZUM WOCHE ZUM
25. Jan 18. Jan
2003 2003
ERSTANTRÄGE 397.000 383.000
(rev. v. 381.000)
VIER-WOCHEN-
DURCHSCHNITT 384.000 387.000
(rev. v. 386.500)

NOTE - Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten für die
Berichtswoche mit 385.000 Erstanträgen auf Arbeitslosenhilfe
gerechnet.
Die Zahlen sind unter den Erwartungen, aber (!!!) die Zahln liegt weiterhin unter 400.000 einer bedeutenden Zahlen. Auch der Vierwochen-Durchschnitt liegt noch unter 400.000 und fällt sogar ein wenig weiter. Auch die Revision der Zahlen aus der Vorwoche fällt relativ moderat aus, hier hätte man aufgrund des Feiertags auch noch schlimmeres erwarten können. Dennoch ein keiner

, den ich aber nicht überbewerten möchte. Etwas deutlicher wird es noch im englischsprachigen Report:

U.S. jobless claims rose in latest week

WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department report
of initial state jobless benefit claims, seasonally adjusted.

Week Ended Initial Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Claims
01/25/03 397,000 384,000 Unavailable
01/18/03 383,000-R 387,000-R 3,289,000
01/11/03 363,000 388,500 3,345,000-R
01/04/03 393,000 407,250 3,321,000
R-revised

REVISIONS:
INITIAL CLAIMS: Jan 18 from 381,000
4-WEEK AVG: Jan 18 from 386,500
CONTINUED CLAIMS: Jan 11 from 3,408,000

STATES WITH DECREASE IN CLAIMS OF MORE THAN 1,000:
Thirty-three states reported a decrease in claims of more
than 1,000 in the week ended Jan. 18, the latest period for
which the data are available. Among the largest were:

North Carolina -19,668
Tennessee -17,263
Pennsylvania -15,051
Michigan -9,960

STATES WITH INCREASE IN MORE THAN 1,000:
One state reported an increase in claims of more
than 1,000 in the week ended Jan. 18, the latest period for
which the data are available. It was:

Louisiana +1,224

FORECAST:
Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast:
U.S. jobless claims 385,000 in the Jan. 25 week

NOTES/HISTORICAL COMPARISONS:
The four-week moving average in the Jan. 25 week was the
lowest since 377,250 in the week ended Nov. 30, 2002.
The insured unemployment rate, a measurement of the work
force receiving unemployment benefits, was 2.6 percent in the
Jan. 18 week, unchanged from a revised 2.6 percent the previous
week.
The department said 713,808 individuals filed for the new
government program that extends unemployment benefits for the
week ended Jan. 11, up from 511,416 in the prior week.
Tennessee had fewer layoffs in the industrial machinery and
transportation equipment industries. Pennsylvania had fewer
layoffs in the transportation and electrical equipment
industries.
Michigan had fewer layoffs in the automobile and
transportation equipment industries.
North Carolina and Louisiana had no comment.

VDA revises down 2003 German new car registrations forecast …
FRANKFURT (AFX) - German Automotive Industry group VDA cut its forecast for this year`s new car registrations in the country, pegging it now at around 3.25 mln units compared with its previous 3.3 mln outlook.
Earlier this year, VDA president Bernd Gottschalk had said new car registrations may rise to 3.3 mln if the political climate for private consumption improves.
VDA also said in a statement today that domestic production for this year is forecast at around 5 mln units compared with last year`s actual output of 5.12 mln.
VDA president Bernd Gottschalk said exports of around 3.55 mln units of passenger cars is an "achievable level".
Germany last year exported 3.62 mln passenger cars, down 1 pct from 2001.
Schlechte News für den Dax und die Autohersteller.

Weiterhin gab es noch eine Menge Unternehmensnachrichten:
SAP konnte die Marge steigern.

SAP<SAPG.DE> lifts 2002 sales, widens margins

FRANKFURT, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Germany`s SAP AG defied a slump in global software spending to beat its full-year 2002 targets, lifting sales and widening its operating margins.

Europe`s largest software maker said on Thursday it had increased 2002 sales by one percent to 7.4 billion euros ($8.05 billion).

Rigorous cost-cutting helped lift operating margins to 22.7 percent, surpassing the company`s target of at least 21 percent.

Operating profit before charges for stock-based compensation programmes and acquisitions rose by 15 percent to 1.7 billion euros.

The group said it expected to gain market share and increase profitability in 2003 despite an unpredictable environment. It forecast 2003 earnings per share, excluding charges for stock-based compensation and other charges, in a range between 3.45 and 3.60 euros.

SAP, which supplies business planning and Web-based e-business software to almost 20,000 customers worldwide, has been hit by slower spending on information technology.

But it confirmed the picture painted on January 9, when it reported preliminary sales figures that were well ahead of market expectations.
Denke da waren viele auf der flachen Seite, das hier entspricht aber auch meinen Beobachtungen, denn ich habe einige Bereiche gesehen, wo SAP ganz gute Aufträge bekommen könnte.

BMW hingegen macht einen kleinen Rückzieher und ist nicht mehr ganz so optimistisch wie vorher. Irakkrieg und Öl belasten. Aus meiner Sicht ist der 7`er auch ein Schuß in den Ofen gewesen. Hier gibt es bestimmt Absatzeinbrüche. Kenne viele die sich hier ein neues Modell schon lange gekauft hätten, wenn der neue (ende 2001 vorgestellte) 7`er von Vorne nicht so schlecht aussehen würde. Auch habe ich mit Entwicklern vom Eyedrive besprochen, so heißt der Knopf glaube ich, die sagen, das ist nur was für junge Menschen und nix für den 7`er.

Adidas ist weiter optimistisch, und macht mehr Profit.

Schering hat mit dem fallenden Dollarkurs ein wenig zu kämpfen, daher haben sie in Zukunft wohl etwas weniger Umsatzzuwachs. Dennoch im Jahresvergleich ganz gut geschlagen.

schrieb am 01.02.03 20:02:17

Beitrag Nr. 177 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen vom Freitag 31.1.2002:

00:30 Japan Konsumentenpreis-Index Dezember unv. gg Vm, -0,3% gg Vj

Preisniveau sinkt 2002 um 0,9%
TOKIO (AWP/dpa-AFX) - In Japan hat die Deflation 2002 im dritten Jahr in
Folge angehalten. Im Gesamtjahr sei das Preisniveau um 0,9 Prozent gesunken,
teilte die Regierung heute Freitag in Tokio mit. Dies war der stärkste jemals
verzeichnete Rückgang. Das Ministerium ermittelt die Daten seit 1971 in dieser
Form. Im Vorjahr war das Preisniveau bereits um 0,7 Prozent gesunken.

Im Dezember sanken die Verbraucherpreise binnen Jahresfrist den Angaben
zufolge um 0,3 Prozent. Im Vormonat hatte der Rückgang 0,4 Prozent betragen. Im
Vergleich zum November blieb die Teuerung im Dezember unterdessen
unverändert.

Deflation läßt grüßen, wenigstens ist es nicht von Monat zu Monat noch weiter gefallen.

Deutlicher wird diese miese Entwicklung noch in folgender Tabelle bezüglich des Großraums Tokio:

Japans Verbraucherpreise im Dezember gg. VJ gesunken
Tokio, 31. Jan (Reuters) - Die Verbraucherpreise in Japan
sind in der Kernrate (ohne die schwankungsanfälligen
Nahrungsmittelpreise) im Dezember im Jahresvergleich um 0,7
Prozent gesunken. Zum Vormonat blieben sie in der Kernrate
unverändert. Die Regierung veröffentlichte am Freitag in Tokio
folgende Daten (Veränderungen in Prozent):

DEZ 02 NOV 02 OKT 02
Landesweiter Gesamtindex 98,3 98,3 98,3
Veränderung gg. Vorjahr - 0,3 - 0,4 - 0,9
Veränderung gg. Vormonat 0,0 0,0 - 0,2

Kernindex 98,2 98,2 98,2
Veränderung gg. Vorjahr - 0,7 - 0,8 - 0,9
Veränderung gg. Vormonat 0,0 0,0 - 0,1

DEZ 02 NOV 02 OKT 02
Gesamtindex Großraum Tokio 97,4 97,8 97,9
Veränderung gg. Vorjahr - 0,4 - 0,3 - 0,3
Veränderung gg. Vormonat - 0,4 - 0,1 0,0

Kernindex 97,2 97,8 97,8
Veränderung gg. Vorjahr - 0,6 - 0,7 - 0,7
Veränderung gg. Vormonat - 0,6 0,0 - 0,1

00:30 Japan Arbeitslosenzahlen Dezember +0,2% gg Vm auf 5,5%

Arbeitslosenquote steigt im Dezember auf 5,5%
TOKIO (AWP/dpa-AFX) - Die Arbeitslosenquote in Japan ist im Dezember
gestiegen. Die Quote habe 5,5 Prozent betragen, teilte die Regierung heute
Freiag in Tokio mit. Im Vormonat hatte die Quote 5,3 Prozent betragen.
Volkswirte hatten im Durchschnitt mit einer etwas niedrigeren Quote von 5,4
Prozent gerechnet. Die Schätzungen lagen dabei zwischen 5,3 und 5,6 Prozent.

Bei Männern war die Arbeitslosenquote im Dezember im Vergleich zum Vormonat
unverändert geblieben, während sie bei Frauen um 0,4 Prozentpunkte auf 5,3
Prozent zulegte.
Leider keine schöne Entwicklung.

08:00 Deutschland Großhandelsumsatz Dezember real +2,0% gg V… Zahlen von Monat zu Monat waren gut.

08:45 Frankreich Arbeitslosenzahlen Dezember +0,1% gg Vm auf…

12:00 EU Zahlungsbilanz 3. Quartal revidiert Eurozone: 25,2 …
Wenigstens ist die positiv.

12:00 EU Geschäftsklima-Index Januar Eurozone: 98,4 (erw. 98,6)
EU monthly economic sentiment survey for January
BRUSSELS, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The European Commission on
Friday published the results of its monthly business and
consumer survey for January.
A summary of the results follows:

EMU-12 record record
Nov Dec Jan low (mo/yr) high(mo/yr)
OVERALL SENTIMENT 98.4 98.6 98.4 93.4(08/93) 104.3(06/00)
-industrial -11 -9 -10 -31 (08/93) 7 (06/00)
-consumer -14 -16 -17 -29 (08/93) 3 (04/00)
-construction -25 -23 -22 -44 (08/96) 4 (03/90)
-retail trade -14 -16 -19 -21 (03/93) 8 (08/90)
SERVICES* -4 -5 -4 -7 (11/01) 34 (08/98)

EU-15 record record
Nov Dec Jan low (mo/yr) high(mo/yr)
OVERALL SENTIMENT 99.1 98.9 98.6 93.7 (07/93) 104.2(06/00)
-industrial -10 -10 -11 -28 (07/93) 6 (01/95)
-consumer -11 -14 -15 -27 (07/93) 3 (08/00)
-construction -23 -21 -20 -42 (04/96) 4 (02/90)
-retail trade -10 -13 -16 -18 (03/93) 4 (06/00)
SERVICES* -4 -5 -4 -5 (12/02) 32 (06/00)

NOTE: * Services confidence index is not included in the
headline sentiment index.
Die Zahlen sind nur knapp unter den Erwartungen gewesen, was mit besonders gefallen hat, ist das der Rückgang bei den Konsumenten weniger wird, auch der Einzelhandel scheint sich langsam zu fangen. Das berücksichtigt aber leider noch nicht die ab Januar kommenden Steuererhöhungen.

12:23 EU Wirtschaftsstimmung Januar Eurozone: -0,29 (Vm: -0,24)
Euro zone business climate indicator falls in Jan
BRUSSELS, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The euro zone business climate
fell for the first time in five months in January, easing to
minus 0.29 from the one-and-a-half-year high of minus 0.24 it
had set in December, the European Commission said on Friday.
"This follows the slight increase in the indicator over the
previous four months, reflecting the current hesitating economic
recovery," the Commission said.
"This decrease was driven by the negative assessment of
production expectations. The other components of the indicator,
such as production trends in the recent past, stocks of finished
products, total order books and export order books remained
unchanged."
Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected a
reading of minus 0.2 for January. The December reading was
unrevised.

14:30 USA Persönliche Einkommen Dezember +0,4% gg Vm (erw. 0,7%) Persönliche Ausgaben Dezember +0,9% gg Vm (erw. 0,7%)

U.S. Dec personal income rose 0.4 pct
WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department
personal income and spending estimates, in seasonally adjusted
annual rates.

Percent Changes, current dollars
Dec Nov Oct Sep
Personal Income 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Wages/Salaries 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5
Disposable Income 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Personal Consumption 0.9 0.4 0.3 -0.4
Durables 6.1 0.9 -2.2 -5.0
Nondurables 0.2 0.4 1.0 -0.1
Services 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

Saving Rate, pct 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.4

Percent Changes, chained `96 dollars
Dec Nov Oct Sep
Personal Consumption 0.9 0.3 0.1 -0.6
Durables 6.5 1.3 -2.1 -5.1
Nondurables 0.4 0.4 0.8 -0.3
Services unch 0.1 0.2 0.2
Disposable Income 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

Percent Changes, chained `96 dollars
Dec Nov Oct Sep
PCE Price Index unch 0.1 0.2 0.2
Core PCE Price Index unch 0.1 0.1 0.2

Current Dollars, in billions
Dec Nov Oct Sep
Personal Income 9,114 9,079 9,051 9,022
Wages/Salaries 5,111 5,097 5,082 5,069
Disposable Income 8,006 7,974 7,945 7,916

Personal Income by sector, current dollars, in billions
Dec Nov Oct Sep
Manufacturing 766 765 767 767
Service Industries 1,981 1,975 1,963 1,955
Government 868 866 863 860
Proprietors` Income 776 772 771 764
Farm 9 11 13 14
Nonfarm 767 761 758 750
Personal Consumption 7,468 7,402 7,372 7,347
Durables 913 861 853 873
Nondurables 2,152 2,147 2,138 2,116
Services 4,403 4,394 4,381 4,359

Chained `96 dollars, in billions
Dec Nov Oct Sep
Personal Consumption 6,671 6,614 6,592 6,584
Durables 1,061 996 983 1,004
Nondurables 1,952 1,944 1,936 1,920
Services 3,700 3,700 3,698 3,689
Disposable Income 7,152 7,125 7,105 7,094

FORECASTS:
Reuters survey of Wall Street economists forecast:
U.S. Dec personal income +0.2 pct
U.S. Dec personal spending +0.8 pct

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:
US DEC PERSONAL INCOME RISE LARGEST SINCE JUNE 2002 (+0.7
PCT)
US DEC PERSONAL SPENDING RISE LARGEST SINCE JULY 2002
(+1.1 PCT)
US 2002 PERSONAL INCOME +3.0 PCT,SMALLEST YRLY GAIN SINCE
1958 +3.0, 2001 +3.3
US 2002 PERSONAL SAVING RATE 3.9 PCT, HIGHEST SINCE 1998
(4.7), VS 2001 2.3 PCT
Das ist gemischt zu interpretieren. Hier gab es offensichtlich ein wenig Nachholbedarf zu konsumieren, doch leider steigt die Arbeitslosigkeit. Offensichtlich wurde hier von dem Ersparrtem im Dezember einiges ausgegeben. :laugh:

Ich gebe dem ganzen eher ein

15:47 USA Uni Michigan Verbrauchervertrauen Januar endg. 82,4 (erw. 83,5)
U.S. consumer sentiment retrenches again in Jan.

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - A gauge of U.S. consumer
sentiment resumed its retreat in January, with households
increasingly worried about a potential war with Iraq and rising
joblessness.
The University of Michigan`s final January consumer
sentiment index fell to 82.4 from 86.7 in December, market
sources who have seen the report said on Friday. That was below
the 83.0 expected by economists and a mid-month reading of
83.7.
Economists and businesses are paying close attention to
consumer sentiment since spending, which drives two-thirds of
U.S. economic activity, began retrenching at the end of 2002.
As the Michigan index hit a nine-year low last October,
consumer spending in the final three months of last year was
the lowest since 1993.
The final current conditions index, which measures how
consumers feel about their situation now, rose to 97.2 from
96.0 in December and its mid-month reading of 96.9. The
expectations index, which gauges attitudes about the 12-month
outlook, fell to 72.8 from 80.8 and a mid-month level of 75.2.
The University of Michigan`s consumer sentiment survey is
based on telephone interviews with about 500 households around
the country on personal finances, business and buying
conditions.

Present index etwas unter den Erwartungen, der Outlook Index ist massiv gefallen.

Die News vom Irak bestimmten diese Woche das Geschehen allerdings noch um einiges mehr, als die Indikatoren. An dem Indikator ist die dünne Umfrage von nur 500 Haushalten zu bemängeln, dafür bekommen die Banken gegen Bezahlung diesen Index ein paar Minuten früher, als Reuters diesen dann veröffentlicht, bzw. als dieser offiziell dann bekannt gegeben wird.

16:00 USA Chicago Einkaufsmanager-Index Januar 56,0 (erw. 53,0)
Chicagoer Einkaufsmanagerindex im Januar gestiegen

Chicago, 31. Jan (Reuters) - Der an den Finanzmärkten viel
beachtete Konjunkturindex der Einkaufsmanager aus dem Großraum
Chicago ist im Januar auf 56,0 Punkte von revidiert 51,7 Punkten
im Vormonat gestiegen. Die Vereinigung der Chicagoer
Einkaufsmanager gab am Freitag folgende Zahlen für den Index und
seine Teilkomponenten bekannt:

JAN 2003 DEZ 2002

Gesamtindex 56,0 51,7
(rev. v. 51,3)
Beschäftigung 45,6 48,1
(rev. v. 50,0)
Preise 54,2 61,8
(rev. v. 62,1)
Neuaufträge 58,0 56,0
(rev. v. 53,0)

NOTE: Von Reuters befragte Analysten hatten für den
Berichtsmonat einen Gesamtindex von 52,6 Punkten vorausgesagt.

Das hier sind mal wieder Januar Zahlen!!! Die Neuaufträge sind gestiegen, die Beschäftigung ist hingegen zurückgegangen. Man ist hier mit dem Einstellen im Januar sicherlich sehr zurückhaltend gewesen. Die folge wird eine bessere Auslastung und bessere Margen sein. Das sind sehr gute News!!!

schrieb am 02.02.03 15:27:06

Beitrag Nr. 178 ()

Da wir hier uns die Kapitalströme Ansehen wollen mal folgende Tabelle. Interessat der Zeitraum nach den Wahlen in Deutschland (fettgedruckt). Ich denke es ist eine klare Antwort, daß man der SPD keine wirtschaftstragende Politik zutraut.

Reuters Asset Allocation Table (Europe) - Jan 2003
LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The percentages in the tables
below reflect model portfolios and assets allocated in global
equity and global bond funds produced following a poll of fund
managers and strategists throughout Continental Europe.
(Conducted between Jan 23-30)
Global Equity Funds
________________________
US UK GER FRA EURO EURO JAPAN ASIA LATAM CASH
CAN INS OUTS OTHR EMRG
MKT
2003__________________________________________________________
AVG JAN 55.6 9.5 3.0 4.6 9.1 3.9 8.5 3.2 0.4 2.2
2002___________________________________________________________
AVG DEC 54.3 9.8 3.3 4.9 9.0 4.2 8.2 2.7 0.7 2.7
AVG NOV 54.1 10.2 3.3 4.8 9.2 3.7 8.3 2.5 1.0 3.0
AVG OCT 51.0 10.3 4.1 5.2 10.7 3.9 8.1 2.3 0.8 2.7
AVG SEP 51.7 9.5 4.4 5.5 12.1 3.6 8.8 2.6 0.4 1.4
AVG AUG 47.4 9.8 5.1 6.0 12.2 4.1 9.3 3.2 0.8 2.2
AVG JUL 46.2 10.0 5.6 6.2 12.2 4.3 9.3 3.3 1.0 1.9
AVG JUN 47.6 9.7 5.5 6.1 12.1 5.0 8.8 3.0 1.0 2.2
AVG MAY 49.0 9.7 5.5 6.2 11.4 4.1 8.2 2.7 1.1 2.2
AVG APR 49.8 9.3 5.6 6.3 11.5 4.0 7.6 2.7 1.0 2.4
AVG MAR 51.0 9.4 5.5 6.1 11.4 4.0 6.7 3.0 0.7 2.2
AVG FEB 51.3 9.6 5.7 6.3 11.5 3.8 6.2 3.0 0.7 2.0
AVG JAN 52.9 9.6 5.1 5.8 10.0 3.6 6.9 2.5 1.0 2.6
2001___________________________________________________________
AVG DEC 51.1 10.0 5.0 5.5 11.0 4.0 7.6 2.4 0.9 2.5
AVG NOV 50.2 9.7 5.1 5.6 10.7 4.3 7.9 2.5 0.8 3.2
AVG OCT 49.4 10.1 5.2 5.8 10.8 4.1 8.4 2.5 0.8 2.9
AVG SEP 50.5 10.0 5.1 5.9 10.4 4.0 9.3 2.2 0.7 1.9
AVG AUG 50.6 9.8 5.2 5.7 9.9 3.8 8.8 2.8 1.1 2.3
AVG JUL 55.1 9.6 4.3 5.1 8.1 3.3 10.3 2.6 0.9 0.7
AVG JUN 52.5 9.4 4.5 5.4 9.0 3.8 10.8 2.6 0.7 1.3
AVG MAY 51.2 9.2 4.7 5.4 9.4 5.1 10.7 2.7 0.5 1.1
AVG APR 51.2 9.2 4.8 5.3 9.4 4.7 10.7 2.6 0.6 1.5
AVG MAR 51.0 9.2 5.0 5.6 9.5 5.0 10.6 2.6 0.7 0.8
AVG FEB 51.8 8.1 5.6 6.1 10.5 4.5 8.7 2.3 0.5 1.9
AVG JAN 51.1 8.3 5.4 6.2 10.4 4.9 9.3 2.6 0.3 1.5
US UK GER FRA EURO EURO JAPAN ASIA LATAM CASH
CAN INS OUTS OTHR EMRG
MKT
Global Bond Funds
_____________________
US CAN JAPAN UK FRA GER EURO EURO ASIA CASH
INS OUTS OTHR
2003_________________________________________________________
AVG JAN 26.6 3.6 12.6 4.9 7.9 14.9 19.4 5.1 3.5 2.3

2002__________________________________________________________
AVG DEC 29.0 4.4 14.5 5.2 7.9 9.9 18.0 5.4 2.8 2.9
AVG NOV 26.4 4.7 14.8 4.9 8.3 11.7 18.8 5.2 3.0 2.4
AVG OCT 27.5 3.9 15.9 5.4 8.4 10.5 20.1 4.3 1.9 2.2
AVG SEP 28.1 3.4 15.4 5.3 7.9 10.2 20.7 5.4 1.9 1.7
AVG AUG 27.5 3.1 15.7 5.4 8.2 12.0 19.8 3.4 2.5 2.5
AVG JUL 26.0 3.2 15.1 5.1 9.1 12.8 21.0 3.3 2.4 2.1
AVG JUN 25.2 3.3 14.3 4.9 9.5 12.4 21.8 3.1 2.5 2.9
AVG MAY 26.5 3.1 14.4 5.2 9.1 11.7 21.3 3.2 2.7 2.8
AVG APR 26.6 3.7 13.9 5.1 8.5 10.8 21.7 4.5 2.8 2.3
AVG MAR 28.4 3.5 12.0 5.2 8.6 11.0 22.3 4.1 2.8 2.1
AVG FEB 28.0 4.4 12.5 5.5 8.3 10.9 21.7 5.1 2.8 1.7
AVG JAN 29.0 4.1 13.4 4.9 8.2 10.6 21.8 4.0 2.1 2.0
US CAN JAPAN UK FRA GER EURO EURO ASIA CASH
INS OUTS OTHR
2001
---------------------------------------------------------------
AVG DEC 27.9 4.6 13.9 4.9 8.4 10.6 21.9 4.3 2.1 1.6
AVG NOV 28.4 4.3 13.4 4.7 8.5 11.4 20.7 4.2 2.5 1.9
AVG OCT 28.4 3.9 13.9 4.9 7.9 11.1 20.4 4.4 3.2 1.9
AVG SEP 26.4 3.7 14.7 4.8 9.0 12.2 19.3 4.6 2.8 2.5
AVG AUG 26.8 3.8 14.8 5.7 8.6 12.0 17.7 4.8 3.8 2.0
AVG JUL 30.3 4.0 16.3 5.9 7.9 12.1 15.3 4.5 2.7 1.0
AVG JUN 30.0 4.0 13.6 5.7 7.2 12.0 19.0 4.7 2.7 1.1
AVG MAY 28.7 4.9 14.0 4.7 7.0 12.3 20.7 3.1 3.4 1.2
AVG APR 29.6 4.2 13.0 4.8 7.1 11.5 20.9 4.0 3.0 1.9
AVG MAR 29.2 3.6 12.9 4.8 6.9 10.7 21.4 4.5 3.0 3.0
AVG FEB 27.3 2.5 14.2 4.8 7.1 11.2 21.3 4.3 4.2 3.1
AVG JAN 28.3 2.2 13.1 5.0 7.3 13.2 20.1 4.9 3.6 2.3

By Tom Burroughes
LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - European fund managers raised
their holdings of U.S. equities and cut euro zone stocks in
January on the view that the U.S. economy is more likely to
outpace its global peers, according to a Reuters poll.
A survey of 11 fund managers showed asset allocators also
increased holdings of euro zone fixed income as a safe-haven
move on heightened fears about war with Iraq and on expectations
that euro zone interest rates may fall further to spur sluggish
growth.
"We see much higher growth in the U.S. than in Europe," said
Harald Schmidlin, equity strategist for European fund house
Cominvest, in Frankfurt. "The growth spread between the U.S. and
euro zone is quite high."
Euro zone debt has also outperformed the U.S. Treasury
market so asset allocators` weightings have reflected that.
Fund managers also dug into their cash piles and increased
their exposure to Asian equities, excluding Japan, on the
assumption that Pacific Rim economies would be among the
stronger performers over the coming months.
The gap between the performance of the American and European
economies should see some bond fund investors switching to euro
zone debt because of expectations of a possible European Central
Bank cut, said Bettina Mueller, fixed income analyst for
dollar-denominated investments at German fund house DWS.
"In our view euro zone debt should outperform the U.S.,"
Mueller said.
Managers of equity funds increased their holdings of U.S.
stocks to an average of 55.6 percent in January from 54.3
percent in December.
They cut holdings of German stocks to 3.0 percent from
December`s 3.3 percent and cut French stocks to 4.6 percent in
January from 4.9 percent.
Equity fund managers also cut holdings of cash to 2.2
percent from December`s average figure of 2.7 percent.

SAFETY IN BONDS
Against a background of rising fears about war with Iraq,
asset allocators shifted to the relative security of euro zone
debt in January.
Bond fund managers upped German fixed income holdings to
14.2 percent from 12.3 percent in December and held French debt
at an average of 7.9 percent. Euro zone debt excluding France
and Germany rose to 19.4 percent from December` 17.6 percent.
"People may be thinking a rate cut is coming in Europe and
so it is most likely that Euroland (debt) will outperform U.S.
Treasuries," said Martina Kockshch, debt analyst at Cominvest.
Bond fund managers cut U.S. bond holdings to an average of
26.6 percent from 27.8 percent a month ago.
Some managers may have been switching back to U.S.
Treasuries from euro zone debt to lock in profits after the
recent outperformance of European bonds against those in the
United States.
"I would not want to be over-invested in the euro zone,"
said Peter Fertig, chief fixed income strategist at Dresdner
Kleinwort Wasserstein.
Global bond fund managers cut their cash holdings to 2.3
percent from 3.2 percent in December.
The survey was carried out between January 23 and 30.

Was mir mit großen Interesse aufgefallen ist, ist der große Sprung bei den Bonds von Dezember zu Januar!!!! :eek:

(ist unterstrichen)

schrieb am 02.02.03 15:39:19

Beitrag Nr. 179 ()

Etwas abgespekter Fahrplan für die nächste Woche:

Mittwoch: 05.02.03

06:00 Japan Frühindikatoren Dezember
07:30 Deutsche Börse AG veröffentlicht den Fahrplan für die Umstellung der Indexfamilie im Zuge der Aktienmarkt-Neusegmentierung, die Grundlage für die Indexentscheidung am 11. Februar ist
09:45 Italien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
09:50 Frankreich Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
09:55 Deutschland Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
10:00 Deutschland Arbeitslosenzahlen Januar
10:00 Deutschland Erwerbstätigkeit im November
10:00 EU Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
10:30 Großbritannien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
16:00 USA ISM-Index des nicht verarbeitenden Gewerbes Januar (Dienstleistungen) zR 54,2 C 54,0 A 56,0

8:15 BNP Paribas YEAR 3,45 Mrd. NET
10:30 Commerzbank Q4 pelim.
10:30 Beiersdorf AG, Jahres-PK cosmed
PMC Sierra AK
British Airways Traffic
Sprint

Donnerstag: 06.02.03

ca. 8:00 Statistisches Bundesamt veröffentlicht Zahlen über den Umsatz mit Wohnaccessoirs im deutschen Einzelhandel für 2002
11:00 Deutschland Bundesfinanzhof mit Jahres PK
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Dezember
12:00 EU BIP Q3
13:00 Großbritannien Bank of England - Zinsentscheidung
13:45 EU EZB - Zinsentscheidung
14:30 PK zur Zinsentscheidung der EZB
14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe für die Woche zum 1.Feb zR 397K C 390K A 380K F 385
14:30 USA Produktivität Q4 (vorl.) zR 5,1% C 0,7% A 0,7% F: Nonfarm 5,0 Unit labor cost 0,0
21:00 USA Treasury STRIPS Jan

Wal-Mart Stores Umsätze Januar (17:00 ??)
Shell Q4

Freitag: 07.02.03

10:30 Großbritannien Industrieproduktion Dezember
14:30 USA Arbeitslosenrate Januar zR 6,0% C 6,0% A 6,0% F 6,0%
14:30 USA Stundenlöhne (durchschnittlich) Januar zR 0,3% C 0,3% A 0,2% F 0,3%
14:30 USA Durchschnittliche Arbeitswoche Januar zR 34,1 C 34,2 A 34,2 F 34,2
14:30 USA Nonfarm Payrolls zR -101K C 63K A 70K F 60K
16:00 USA Lagerbestände (Großhandel) Dezember zR 0,2% C 0,2% A 0,3%
16:00 USA Großhandelsumsätze??
21:00 USA Konsumentenkredite Dezember zR -2,2 Mrd. USD C+F +3,0 Mrd. USD A +3,5 Mrd. USD

Deutsche Bank Q4+PK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Montag: 03.02.03

Hong Kong ist geschlossen, Singapur mit eingeschränktem Handel

00:00 Zahlen zu den Autoverkäufenim Januar zR 6,1 Mio. C+F 5,7 Mio. A 5,8 Mio.
00:00 Zahlen zu den Truck Sales im Januar zR 8,7 Mio. C+F 7,5 Mio. A 7,4 Mio.
08:00 Deutschland Umsatz im Einzelhandel für Dezember und das Gesamtjahr
09:45 Italien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Industrie)
09:50 Frankreich Einkaufsmanagerindex (Industrie)
09:55 BME/Reuters Deutschland Einkaufsmanagerindex Januar (Industrie)
10:00 EU Einkaufsmanagerindex Januar (Industrie)
10:30 Großbritannien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Industrie)
12:00 EU Arbeitslosenzahlen
12:00 EU Produzentenpreis-Index Dezember
16:00 USA ISM-Index verarbeitendes Gewerbe für Januar zR 55,2 C 53,0 A 54,5 F 54,0
16:00 USA Bauausgaben Januar zR 0,3% C 0,3% A 0,5% F 0,5%

British Telecom Q3
Ericsson Q4

10:00 Deutsche-Anleger-Schutzbund (DASB) zum Thema Anlagebetrug
Ford Motor Company mit 2003 US Sales Results Conference Call (19:00)

Dienstag: 04.02.03

08:45 Frankreich Verbrauchervertrauen Januar
09:00 Italien Konsumentenpreis-Index Januar (vorl.)
12:00 EU Einzelhandelsumsätze November
12:00 EU Arbeitsmarktdaten Dezember
12:00 EU Konsumentenpreis-Index Januar(vorl.)
13:45 USA BTM-Chain Store Sales
14:55 USA Redbook
16:00 USA Auftragseingänge d. Industrie Dezember zR -0,8% C+F 0,3% A 0,3%
16:00 USA Challenger Report

Commerzbank Jahreszahlen
DaimlerChrysler Q4 pelim.
Epcos Q3 + AK
8:00 Alcatel YEAR -3,74 Mrd. Net + Analystenkonferenz: EPS: Z -0,12

Cisco Systems Conference Call um (22:30) EPS: zZ 0,09 Z 0,13

9:30 PK des Verbandes der Elektrizitätswirtschaft (VDEW) über die Leistungsbilanz 2001/2002 der deutschen Stromwirtschaft
10:00 Pressebriefing von der Microsoft GmdH anlässlich der Vorstellung des Softwarepakets "Office 11"

Mittwoch: 05.02.03

06:00 Japan Frühindikatoren Dezember
07:30 Deutsche Börse AG veröffentlicht den Fahrplan für die Umstellung der Indexfamilie im Zuge der Aktienmarkt-Neusegmentierung, die Grundlage für die Indexentscheidung am 11. Februar ist
09:45 Italien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
09:50 Frankreich Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
09:55 Deutschland Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
10:00 Deutschland Arbeitslosenzahlen Januar
10:00 Deutschland Erwerbstätigkeit im November
10:00 EU Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
10:30 Großbritannien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Dienstleistungen)
16:00 USA ISM-Index des nicht verarbeitenden Gewerbes Januar (Dienstleistungen) zR 54,2 C 54,0 A 56,0

8:15 BNP Paribas YEAR 3,45 Mrd. NET
10:30 Commerzbank Q4 pelim.
10:30 Beiersdorf AG, Jahres-PK cosmed
PMC Sierra AK
British Airways Traffic
Sprint

Donnerstag: 06.02.03

ca. 8:00 Statistisches Bundesamt veröffentlicht Zahlen über den Umsatz mit Wohnaccessoirs im deutschen Einzelhandel für 2002
11:00 Deutschland Bundesfinanzhof mit Jahres PK
12:00 Deutschland Auftragseingang Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Dezember
12:00 EU BIP Q3
13:00 Großbritannien Bank of England - Zinsentscheidung
13:45 EU EZB - Zinsentscheidung
14:30 PK zur Zinsentscheidung der EZB
14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe für die Woche zum 1.Feb zR 397K C 390K A 380K F 385
14:30 USA Produktivität Q4 (vorl.) zR 5,1% C 0,7% A 0,7% F: Nonfarm 5,0 Unit labor cost 0,0
21:00 USA Treasury STRIPS Jan

Wal-Mart Stores Umsätze Januar (17:00 ??)
Shell Q4

Freitag: 07.02.03

10:30 Großbritannien Industrieproduktion Dezember
14:30 USA Arbeitslosenrate Januar zR 6,0% C 6,0% A 6,0% F 6,0%
14:30 USA Stundenlöhne (durchschnittlich) Januar zR 0,3% C 0,3% A 0,2% F 0,3%
14:30 USA Durchschnittliche Arbeitswoche Januar zR 34,1 C 34,2 A 34,2 F 34,2
14:30 USA Nonfarm Payrolls zR -101K C 63K A 70K F 60K
16:00 USA Lagerbestände (Großhandel) Dezember zR 0,2% C 0,2% A 0,3%
16:00 USA Großhandelsumsätze??
21:00 USA Konsumentenkredite Dezember zR -2,2 Mrd. USD C+F +3,0 Mrd. USD A +3,5 Mrd. USD

Deutsche Bank Q4+PK

schrieb am 02.02.03 15:46:45

Beitrag Nr. 180 ()

*************************************************************
*******************Montag: 03.02.03***********************
*************************************************************

Hong Kong ist geschlossen, Singapur mit eingeschränktem Handel

00:00 Zahlen zu den Autoverkäufenim Januar zR 6,1 Mio. C+F 5,7 Mio. A 5,8 Mio.
00:00 Zahlen zu den Truck Sales im Januar zR 8,7 Mio. C+F 7,5 Mio. A 7,4 Mio.
08:00 Deutschland Umsatz im Einzelhandel für Dezember und das Gesamtjahr
09:45 Italien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Industrie)
09:50 Frankreich Einkaufsmanagerindex (Industrie)
09:55 BME/Reuters Deutschland Einkaufsmanagerindex Januar (Industrie)
10:00 EU Einkaufsmanagerindex Januar (Industrie)
10:30 Großbritannien Einkaufsmanagerindex (Industrie)
12:00 EU Arbeitslosenzahlen
12:00 EU Produzentenpreis-Index Dezember
16:00 USA ISM-Index verarbeitendes Gewerbe für Januar zR 55,2 C 53,0 A 54,5 F 54,0
16:00 USA Bauausgaben Januar zR 0,3% C 0,3% A 0,5% F 0,5%

British Telecom Q3
Ericsson Q4

10:00 Deutsche-Anleger-Schutzbund (DASB) zum Thema Anlagebetrug
Ford Motor Company mit 2003 US Sales Results Conference Call (19:00)

schrieb am 02.02.03 16:07:28

Beitrag Nr. 181 ()

AUSBLICK/Analysten heben Prognosen für Ericsson vor Zahlen an

Stockholm (vwd) - Die Telefon AB LM Ericsson, Stockholm, sorgt vor der Präsentation der Quartalsergebnisse für viel Bewegung in den Analysehäusern. Angetrieben durch die soliden Quartalszahlen der Wettbewerber Nokia und Motorola hoben viele Analysten ihre Schätzungen zum Ergebnis und Umsatz im vierten Quartal 2002 an. Im Mittel prognostizieren die Analysten nun einen Vorsteuerverlust von pro forma 1,11 Mrd nach 5,1 Mrd SEK im Vorjahr. Der Umsatz dürfte um 34 Prozent auf 38,90 (58,54) Mrd SEK gesunken sein. Im Vergleich zum Vorquartal würde dies jedoch eine Steigerung von 16 Prozent entsprechen. Ericsson wird am Montag um 8.30 Uhr ihre Zahlen vorlegen. Noch am Freitag hatte Goldman Sachs ihre Prognose zum Vorsteuerverlust gesenkt. Goldman erwartet nun einen Jahresverlust je Aktie von 0,60 nach 1,06 SEK. Im laufenden Jahr sehen die Analysten einen Verlust von 0,05 nach 0,26 SEK. Zuvor hatte Merrill Lynch die Umsatzprognose für das 4. Quartal und das Gesamtjahr erhöht und gleichzeitig die Erwartung für den Vorsteuerverlust gesenkt. Bei der System-Sparte hoffen die CSFB-Analysten zudem mit dem Erreichen die Gewinnschwelle. Pessimistischer äußerte sich dagegen die Deutsche Bank, die die Planzahlen von Ericsson für 2003 stark gefährdet sieht. Die Zahlen sähen bereits einen Rückgang des Mobilfunkgeräte-Absatzes um zehn Prozent vor. Ein stärkerer Einbruch könnte den Fortgang der Restrukturierung beeinträchtigen. Einen durchweg positiven Ausblick von Ericsson erwartet der Markt aber ohnehin nicht mehr, nachdem die Wettbewerber Nokia und Motorola nur sehr vorsichtige Zukunftsaussagen veröffentlicht hatten.

schrieb am 02.02.03 16:15:21

Beitrag Nr. 182 ()

#178 sehe ich übrigens in direktem Zusammenhang mit dem Termin am 6.2.03 um 13:45

(Ohne dabei eine Voraussage zu machen.)

schrieb am 02.02.03 17:06:07

Beitrag Nr. 183 ()

Hier noch mal ein paar schöne Charts, die die Zahlen vom letzten Montag etwas besser darstellen (Quelle: www.ifo.de ) :

Warum heute noch diese Charts in diesem Thread? => Ich habe ein paar Vorabberichte über den Index gelesen, die morgen kommen sollen. Dann sollte man darüber besser bescheid wissen.

schrieb am 12.02.03 19:12:32

Beitrag Nr. 184 ()

Kurzübersicht von den letzten Tagen bis heute:
12.02.03

Großbritannien: Arbeitslosenrate (Claiment Count …

schrieb am 15.02.03 13:26:14

Beitrag Nr. 185 ()

Kurzübersicht bis zum Freitag:

14.02.03
15:45 USA Uni Michigan Verbrauchervertrauen Februa…

Das waren die lezten zwei Tage mal schöne Zahlen, zum einen sinken die Anträge auf Arbeitslosenversicherung bei den Erstanträgen. Auch die Zahlen der Langzeitarbeitslosen waren ja besser gewesen. Die Einzelhandelsümsätze ohne die Autos waren auch sehr erfreulich. Besonders haben mir die Zahlen zur Industieproduktion und zu der Kapazitätsauslasung gefallen. Unter diesem Gesichtspunkte dürfte man auch die steigenden Inventarbestände nicht mehr als negativ, sondern eher positiv betrachten.

Zusätzlich hat sich die Situation im Irak ein wenig entspannt, da hier nun ein Gesetz erlassen wurde Massenvernichtungswaffen beim Import und der Produktion zu verbieten. Besonders positiv sehe ich allerdings das 3 der 5 ständigen Mitglieder im Nato Sicherheitsrat eine Intervention im Irak derzeit ablehen. Russland, China und Frankreich haben sich eindeutig dagegen ausgesprochen. Blix sieht die Kooperation des Irak weiter verbessert, auch wenn zur Erfüllung der Resulution 1441 noch mehr erwartet wird.

Der Blick auf das Gold ist nicht besonders überraschend, und zeigt an, wie viel hier an Irakaufschalg gezahlt wurde. Der Kurs ist auf 357 USD massiv zurückgekommen. Interessanter wird es hingegen beim Blick auf das Öl, da fragt man sich, wer hier den Preis (künstlich?) oben hält. Aus meiner Sicht sind es die Amerikaner selbst. Schließlich sollten Mitte bis Ende Februar die Schiffe aus Venezuela den Weltmarkt erreichen, ebenso wie weitere Schiffe aus Saudi Arabien, die ja die Förderquote deutlich angehoben haben. Viele sehen ja schon den Ölpreis kurzfristig einbrechen, auch wenn es derzeit noch nicht danach aussieht mit einem aktuell sehr hohen Preis von 33,60 USD.

Ebenfalls wie das Öl sieht es aktuell auch bei den Compterchips nicht so rosig aus. Hier sind die Preise der Speicherchips massiv zurückgekommen. Die Produktionslager dürften noch recht voll sein. Dieses hat in einigen Produktionsfirmen sogar zu einem kurzzeitigen Produktionsstop vom Speicherchips geführt. Für die Unternehmen bedeutet das ein weiteres verfolgen der Politik die Margen zu steigern, aber immer noch nicht den Umsatz dabei steigern zu können.

Ansonsten hat Dell am Donnerstag Abend mal positiv mit dem Aufrechterhalten des Ausblicks überrascht. Aber hier sollte man nicht vergessen, daß es sich um Dell handelt. Eine Firma die seit Jahren excellent geführt wird!!! Ein absolutes Ausnahme und Beispielunternehmen für jede Mannagementschule.

Noch eine Anmerkung zum Michigan Index, hier sollte man nicht zu eng darauf schauen, es handelt sich bei dem vorläufigen Index um 500 Haushalte. Dazu kommt das in den letzten Tagen in den USA Hamsterhäufe aus Kriegsangst stattfanden. Einige haben sich sogar mit Klebeband eingedeckt, um im Falle eines Gasangriffs die Fenster und Türen zukleben zu können. (Sind halt Ammis.

).

Ich wünsche ein schönes Wochenende.

schrieb am 16.02.03 13:52:30

Beitrag Nr. 186 ()

CDU-Politiker erwägen konstruktives Misstrauensvotum

Berlin, 16. Feb (Reuters) - Ein halbes Jahr nach der Bundestagswahl sind in der Union Überlegungen laut geworden, Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) mit einem konstruktiven Misstrauensvotum zu stürzen.

Der stellvertretende CDU-Chef Christoph Böhr sagte der Zeitung "Bild am Sonntag": "Schröder sitzt auf einem Dampfkochtopf. Er beschwört ein konstruktives Misstrauensvotum geradezu herauf." Der Vorsitzende des Europaausschusses im Bundestag, Matthias Wissmann (CDU), sagte mit Blick auf den Kurs der Regierung in der Irak-Frage, SPD und Grüne müssten dem außenpolitischen Amoklauf mit einem Misstrauensvotum ein Ende setzen. In der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung" hieß es, die Spitze der Unions-Fraktion habe ein Misstrauensvotum verworfen. Der parlamentarische Geschäftsführer der Grünen-Fraktion, Volker Beck, erklärte: "Ein Misstrauensvotum gegen Bundeskanzler Schröder ist chancenlos." Die Koalitionsfraktionen stünden geschlossen hinter dem Kanzler.

Böhr sagte, Schröder habe innen- und außenpolitisch jedes Vertrauen verspielt. "Er steht vor dem größten Scherbenhaufen, den jemals ein Bundeskanzler angerichtet hat." Jede Stimme der Vernunft in der SPD werde gnadenlos niedergemacht, sagte Böhr mit Blick auf die Sitzung der SPD-Fraktion am vergangenen Montag. Dort hatte der Vorsitzende des Auswärtigen Ausschusses, Ulrich Klose (SPD), Schröders Irak-Kurs hart kritisiert. Der Kanzler hatte dies schroff zurückgewiesen. Schröder hat sich im Konflikt um die Abrüstung Iraks gegen einen Militärschlag festgelegt und dafür scharfe Kritik der USA geerntet.

Wissmann sagte, Schröder habe Deutschland in der Europäischen Union (EU), der Nato und im UNO-Sicherheitsrat isoliert. "Um weiteren Schaden für unser Land zu vermeiden, sollten die weitsichtigen Mitglieder in der SPD-Bundestagsfraktion und bei den Grünen den Mut aufbringen, durch ein konstruktives Misstrauensvotum im Deutschen Bundestag dem außenpolitischen Amoklauf von Gerhard Schröder ein Ende zu setzen."

In der SPD-Fraktion hatte es nach der Wahl großen Unmut über den unklaren Kurs der Bundesregierung gegeben. Beim Thema Sozialreformen wird mit heftigen Debatten in der Fraktion gerechnet. In der Irak-Frage hat sich die Fraktion allerdings mit Ausnahme Kloses klar hinter Schröder gestellt.

Der Bundestag kann dem Bundeskanzler sein Misstrauen aussprechen, indem er mit der Mehrheit seiner Abgeordneten einen Nachfolger wählt. Auf diesem Weg löste Helmut Kohl (CDU) 1982 den SPD-Bundeskanzler Helmut Schmidt ab. Seit der Wahl am 22. September hat die rot-grüne Koalition eine knappe Mehrheit von 306 Abgeordneten. Für eine absolute Mehrheit sind 302 Stimmen nötig.

Für die junge Generation ist der letzte Absatz schon ganz interessant. Ob allerdigs die Irakfrage hier die Basis des Mistrauenvotums sein sollte, oder die wirtschaftspolitik ein besserer Grund wäre, das sei mal dahin gestellt.

schrieb am 16.02.03 16:03:43

Beitrag Nr. 187 ()

Wochenfahrplan in Kürze:

19:10 Rede des Präsidenten der Federal Reserve von Dallas, Robert McTeer, zum Thema "A Status Report on the U.S. Economy" anlässlich eines Wirtschaftsseminars der Federal Reserve von Dallas (19:10)

Lucent Jahresversammlung

HypoVereinsbank (HVB), 2002 Gesamt
Hochtief AG, 2002 Gesamt (vorläufig)
Schwarz Pharma AG, Jahreszahlen, PK und Anlystenkonferenz (habe sie hier mal rein geschrieben wg. des Medikaments Omeprazol was gut läuft)

Donnerstag 20.2.2003:

I: Industrieaufträge
I: Industireumsätze
8:00 D: Bauhauptgewerbe Auftragseingänge Dezember und Jahr 2002
10:00 I: Verbrauchervertrauen Februar
10:30 GB: Einzelhandelsumsätze Januar
11:00 ? EU: EZB Ratssitzung
12:00 GB: CBI Konjunkturberichts Februar
14:30 USA: Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe für die Woche zum 15.2.03 zA 377K C 386K A 385 F 385
14:30 USA: PPI Jan z 0,0% C +0,4% A +0,3%
14:30 USA: PPI Core Jan z -0,3% C +0,1% A +0,1%
14:30 USA: Außenhandel: z -40,1 Mrd.USD C -38,5 Mrd.USD A -39,7 Mrd.USD
16:00 USA: Frühindikatoren z +0,1% C 0,0% A 0,0%
18:00 USA: Konjunkturindex der Philadelphia FED Februar z +11,2 C +11,0 A +11,5 F 11,2
22:30 USA: Monetary Aggregates Woche vom 10.2.03

8:00 TotalFinalElf, Gesamt 2002 R NET: 6,658 Mrd.
10:00 DaimlerChrysler AG, Bilanz-PK und endgültige Zahlen 2002
Hugo Boss AG, Gesamt 2002 (vorläufig)
Bilfinger + Berger Jahreszahlen (vorläufig)
CIENA CORP Q1 (before open) EPS: zF -0,17 USD F -0,14 USD
Nextel Communications (14:30 Earings Conference Call) EPS: zF -2,29 USD F +0,10
RadioShack Corporation (15:00 Earnings Conference Call)EPS: zF +0,67 F +0,59
JC Penny (15:30 Earnings Conference Call) EPS: zF +0,35 F +0,66 USD

Freitag 21.2.2003:

KLEINER VERFALLSTAG (EUREX: 12:00 STOXX, 13:00 DAX-Optionen, 19:00 Renten, 20:00 Aktienoptionen auf D und US Werte)

8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Insolvenzen November 2002
8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Einfuhren von Wein 2001
8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Inlandstourismus Dezember 2002
8:45 F: privater Verbrauch
8:50 F: BIP Q4 (vorläufig)
9:00 I: Handlesbilanz Dezember
14:30 USA: CPI Jan z +0,1% C +0,3% A +0,3%
14:30 USA: CPI Core Jan z +0,1 C +0,2 A +0,2
14:30 USA: Realeinkommen Januar
20:00 USA: Finanzhaushaltssaldo z 43,7 Mrd.USD C 10,0 Mrd.USD A 10,0 Mrd.USD

10:00 ThyssenKrupp AG, HV" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Montag 17.2.2003:

Alle US Märkte sind geschlossen

06:00 Japan: BoJ Monatsbericht
12:00 VerÖffentlichung des Monatsberichts der Deutschen Bundesbank

Dienstag 18.2.2003:

6:00 J: Frühindikatoren
8:00 D: Umsatz und die Zahl der Beschäftigten im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe
und Bergbau Dezember und Jahr 2002
9:00 Italien: CPI Januar (endgültig)
10:30 D: DIHK zur Konjunktursituation
10:30 GB: harmonisierte Verbraucherpreise
10:30 GB: Einzelhandelspreise Januar
11:00 D: ZEW Konjunkturbericht Februar
12:00 EU: Eurostat-Industrieproduktion Dezember Euro-Zone

Deutsche Börse AG mit Jahreszahlen (vorläufig) und Analsystenkonferenz
11:00 Allianz Dresdner Asset Management über das Pensions-Business in Europa und Deutschland
WAL-MART STORES Q4 EPS: z +0,49 Z +0,55 F +0,56 (13:30 Earnings Conference Call)
14:00 ? Telefonkonferenz der Deutschen Börse AG
UBS Jahreszahlen 2002

Reuters Jahreszahlen R: PTAX 55-118 m (UK Observer sieht den Verlust bei 551 Mio. USD)

Wien: 108. OPEC Treffen vom Board der Governors

Mittwoch 19.2.2003:

BOJ - Protokoll des geldpolitischen Treffens vom 21./22. Januar

8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt-Beschäftigungsentwicklung im Einzelhandel 2002
8:45 F: Leistungsbilanz Dezember
9:30 GB: BoE - Protokoll des geldpolitischen Treffens vom 5./6. Februar
12:00 EU: Eurostat - Handelsbilanz Dezember (vorläufig) und November (revidiert)
13:00 US: Mortage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index 14.2.2003
13:45 USA: BTM chain store sales
14:30 USA: Hausbaubeginne Januar zA 1,835 Mio. C 1,775 Mio. A 1,760 Mio. F 1,750 Mio.
14:30 USA: Hausbauerlaubnis Januar zA 1,887 Mio. C 1,800 Mio. A 1,790 Mio.
14:55 USA: Reedbook

18:00 Rede von US-Finanzminister John Snow zum Thema "The President`s Jobs and Growth Package"
19:10 Rede des Präsidenten der Federal Reserve von Dallas, Robert McTeer, zum Thema "A Status Report on the U.S. Economy" anlässlich eines Wirtschaftsseminars der Federal Reserve von Dallas (19:10)

Lucent Jahresversammlung

HypoVereinsbank (HVB), 2002 Gesamt
Hochtief AG, 2002 Gesamt (vorläufig)
Schwarz Pharma AG, Jahreszahlen, PK und Anlystenkonferenz (habe sie hier mal rein geschrieben wg. des Medikaments Omeprazol was gut läuft)

Donnerstag 20.2.2003:

I: Industrieaufträge
I: Industireumsätze
8:00 D: Bauhauptgewerbe Auftragseingänge Dezember und Jahr 2002
10:00 I: Verbrauchervertrauen Februar
10:30 GB: Einzelhandelsumsätze Januar
11:00 ? EU: EZB Ratssitzung
12:00 GB: CBI Konjunkturberichts Februar
14:30 USA: Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe für die Woche zum 15.2.03 zA 377K C 386K A 385 F 385
14:30 USA: PPI Jan z 0,0% C +0,4% A +0,3%
14:30 USA: PPI Core Jan z -0,3% C +0,1% A +0,1%
14:30 USA: Außenhandel: z -40,1 Mrd.USD C -38,5 Mrd.USD A -39,7 Mrd.USD
16:00 USA: Frühindikatoren z +0,1% C 0,0% A 0,0%
18:00 USA: Konjunkturindex der Philadelphia FED Februar z +11,2 C +11,0 A +11,5 F 11,2
22:30 USA: Monetary Aggregates Woche vom 10.2.03

8:00 TotalFinalElf, Gesamt 2002 R NET: 6,658 Mrd.
10:00 DaimlerChrysler AG, Bilanz-PK und endgültige Zahlen 2002
Hugo Boss AG, Gesamt 2002 (vorläufig)
Bilfinger + Berger Jahreszahlen (vorläufig)
CIENA CORP Q1 (before open) EPS: zF -0,17 USD F -0,14 USD
Nextel Communications (14:30 Earings Conference Call) EPS: zF -2,29 USD F +0,10
RadioShack Corporation (15:00 Earnings Conference Call)EPS: zF +0,67 F +0,59
JC Penny (15:30 Earnings Conference Call) EPS: zF +0,35 F +0,66 USD

Freitag 21.2.2003:

KLEINER VERFALLSTAG (EUREX: 12:00 STOXX, 13:00 DAX-Optionen, 19:00 Renten, 20:00 Aktienoptionen auf D und US Werte)

8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Insolvenzen November 2002
8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Einfuhren von Wein 2001
8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Inlandstourismus Dezember 2002
8:45 F: privater Verbrauch
8:50 F: BIP Q4 (vorläufig)
9:00 I: Handlesbilanz Dezember
14:30 USA: CPI Jan z +0,1% C +0,3% A +0,3%
14:30 USA: CPI Core Jan z +0,1 C +0,2 A +0,2
14:30 USA: Realeinkommen Januar
20:00 USA: Finanzhaushaltssaldo z 43,7 Mrd.USD C 10,0 Mrd.USD A 10,0 Mrd.USD

10:00 ThyssenKrupp AG, HV

schrieb am 17.02.03 22:16:12

Beitrag Nr. 188 ()

about the outlook for the economy," the central bank said in the
report.
Exports and industrial production remained basically flat.
The BOJ downgraded its assessment in November for the first
time in nearly a year, citing the effects of a weak U.S. economy
on Japan`s exports and production.
On Friday, the BOJ`s Policy Board decided to maintain its
current super-easy monetary policy but said it would stand ready
to supply more liquidity if financial markets became unstable
ahead of the end of the financial year on March 31.

Bundesbank - Konjunkturerholung nur bei Ende des Irak-Konflikts
Frankfurt, 17. Feb (Reuters) - Die Weltwirtschaft kann nach
Einschätzung der Deutschen Bundesbank erst zu einer Erholung
ansetzen, wenn die Irak-Krise entschärft wird und das Vertrauen
in der Wirtschaft wieder wachsen kann. Sollte es zu einem
längeren Krieg kommen, wären dauerhaft hohe Ölpreise und ein
Rückschlag für die weltweite Konjunktur die Folge, heißt es in
dem am Montag veröffentlichten Monatsbericht der Bundesbank für
Februar.
Im Schlussquartal des vergangenen Jahres hat sich das
Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) in Deutschland nach Berechnungen der
Bundesbank leicht verringert, die Wirtschaft könnte zu
Jahresbeginn jedoch wieder ein geringes Wachstum verzeichnen.
Die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft habe sich Ende 2002 spürbar
verlangsamt, daran habe sich auch zu Beginn dieses Jahres nichts
geändert. "Global betrachtet waren die Startbedingungen zum
Jahresanfang 2003 eher ungünstig", heißt es in dem Bericht. Die
Erwartungen der Unternehmen hätten sich in einigen Ländern
wieder aufgehellt, doch die Stimmung der Konsumenten habe sich
weiter eingetrübt, und die Sorge über die Folgen eines
Irak-Krieges habe die Aktienmärkte belastet. Die Flaute könne
nur überwunden werden, wenn die Wirtschaftsakteure wieder mehr
Vertrauen fassten und die Risikoprämien an den Finanzmärkten
sänken. "Dazu ist die Verringerung der geopolitischen Spannungen
unabdingbar."
Wie sich eine Eskalation im Mittleren Osten auf die
Weltwirtschaft auswirke, lasse sich nicht genau abschätzen und
hänge von Dauer und Intensität eines möglichen Militärkonflikts
ab. Bei einem kurzen Krieg könne der Ölpreis schnell wieder
sinken. Die Stimmung von Investoren und Konsumenten würde sich
aufhellen. "Käme es jedoch zu einem längeren Konflikt, so wären
wahrscheinlich ein anhaltend hoher Ölpreis und ein erneuter
globaler Konjunkturrückschlag die Folge", schreiben die
Bundesbank-Volkswirte.

GERINGFÜGIGER BIP-RÜCKGANG IM 4. QUARTAL 2002
Nachdem das Statistische Bundesamt das Wachstum der
deutschen Wirtschaft für das vergangene Jahr auf 0,2 Prozent
geschätzt hatte, könnte die Wirtschaft im vierten Quartal nach
Berechnungen der Bundesbank zum Vorquartal saison- und
kalenderbereinigt geringfügig geschrumpft sein. Die Bundesbank
gibt ihre Schätzung mit "minus null" Prozent an, der Rückgang
des BIP dürfte demnach geringer gewesen sein als 0,1 Prozent.
"Damit befindet sich die Wirtschaft seit über zwei Jahren in
einer Phase der Quasi-Stagnation", stellt die Bundesbank fest.
Dazu habe zweifellos die weltweite Wachstumsabschwächung
beigetragen. Mehr und mehr träten aber auch hausgemachte
Ursachen für die Wachstumsschwäche in den Vordergrund: starre
Regelungen am Arbeitsmarkt, hohe Steuer- und Abgabenbelastung
sowie Fehlanreize der sozialen Sicherungssysteme. "Auch die
Unsicherheiten über den wirtschaftspolitischen Kurs haben die
Grundstimmung in der Wirtschaft belastet."
Für das laufende Quartal ist die Bundesbank vorsichtig
optimistisch und sieht anders als einige Volkswirte keinen
erneuten BIP-Rückgang und damit keine Rezession. "Vielmehr
lassen die Umfrageergebnisse in den Unternehmen sowie die
Auftragseingänge hoffen, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft im Laufe
der ersten Monate dieses Jahres wieder Boden gutmachen kann."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">BOJ maintains bleak view of economy in Feb report
TOKYO, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained a
bleak view of the Japanese economy on Monday, saying in a monthly
report that it was unlikely to show signs of recovery for some
time.
"Economic activity remains flat amid substantial uncertainty
about the outlook for the economy," the central bank said in the
report.
Exports and industrial production remained basically flat.
The BOJ downgraded its assessment in November for the first
time in nearly a year, citing the effects of a weak U.S. economy
on Japan`s exports and production.
On Friday, the BOJ`s Policy Board decided to maintain its
current super-easy monetary policy but said it would stand ready
to supply more liquidity if financial markets became unstable
ahead of the end of the financial year on March 31.

Bundesbank - Konjunkturerholung nur bei Ende des Irak-Konflikts
Frankfurt, 17. Feb (Reuters) - Die Weltwirtschaft kann nach
Einschätzung der Deutschen Bundesbank erst zu einer Erholung
ansetzen, wenn die Irak-Krise entschärft wird und das Vertrauen
in der Wirtschaft wieder wachsen kann. Sollte es zu einem
längeren Krieg kommen, wären dauerhaft hohe Ölpreise und ein
Rückschlag für die weltweite Konjunktur die Folge, heißt es in
dem am Montag veröffentlichten Monatsbericht der Bundesbank für
Februar.
Im Schlussquartal des vergangenen Jahres hat sich das
Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) in Deutschland nach Berechnungen der
Bundesbank leicht verringert, die Wirtschaft könnte zu
Jahresbeginn jedoch wieder ein geringes Wachstum verzeichnen.
Die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft habe sich Ende 2002 spürbar
verlangsamt, daran habe sich auch zu Beginn dieses Jahres nichts
geändert. "Global betrachtet waren die Startbedingungen zum
Jahresanfang 2003 eher ungünstig", heißt es in dem Bericht. Die
Erwartungen der Unternehmen hätten sich in einigen Ländern
wieder aufgehellt, doch die Stimmung der Konsumenten habe sich
weiter eingetrübt, und die Sorge über die Folgen eines
Irak-Krieges habe die Aktienmärkte belastet. Die Flaute könne
nur überwunden werden, wenn die Wirtschaftsakteure wieder mehr
Vertrauen fassten und die Risikoprämien an den Finanzmärkten
sänken. "Dazu ist die Verringerung der geopolitischen Spannungen
unabdingbar."
Wie sich eine Eskalation im Mittleren Osten auf die
Weltwirtschaft auswirke, lasse sich nicht genau abschätzen und
hänge von Dauer und Intensität eines möglichen Militärkonflikts
ab. Bei einem kurzen Krieg könne der Ölpreis schnell wieder
sinken. Die Stimmung von Investoren und Konsumenten würde sich
aufhellen. "Käme es jedoch zu einem längeren Konflikt, so wären
wahrscheinlich ein anhaltend hoher Ölpreis und ein erneuter
globaler Konjunkturrückschlag die Folge", schreiben die
Bundesbank-Volkswirte.

GERINGFÜGIGER BIP-RÜCKGANG IM 4. QUARTAL 2002
Nachdem das Statistische Bundesamt das Wachstum der
deutschen Wirtschaft für das vergangene Jahr auf 0,2 Prozent
geschätzt hatte, könnte die Wirtschaft im vierten Quartal nach
Berechnungen der Bundesbank zum Vorquartal saison- und
kalenderbereinigt geringfügig geschrumpft sein. Die Bundesbank
gibt ihre Schätzung mit "minus null" Prozent an, der Rückgang
des BIP dürfte demnach geringer gewesen sein als 0,1 Prozent.
"Damit befindet sich die Wirtschaft seit über zwei Jahren in
einer Phase der Quasi-Stagnation", stellt die Bundesbank fest.
Dazu habe zweifellos die weltweite Wachstumsabschwächung
beigetragen. Mehr und mehr träten aber auch hausgemachte
Ursachen für die Wachstumsschwäche in den Vordergrund: starre
Regelungen am Arbeitsmarkt, hohe Steuer- und Abgabenbelastung
sowie Fehlanreize der sozialen Sicherungssysteme. "Auch die
Unsicherheiten über den wirtschaftspolitischen Kurs haben die
Grundstimmung in der Wirtschaft belastet."
Für das laufende Quartal ist die Bundesbank vorsichtig
optimistisch und sieht anders als einige Volkswirte keinen
erneuten BIP-Rückgang und damit keine Rezession. "Vielmehr
lassen die Umfrageergebnisse in den Unternehmen sowie die
Auftragseingänge hoffen, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft im Laufe
der ersten Monate dieses Jahres wieder Boden gutmachen kann."

schrieb am 17.02.03 22:19:01

Beitrag Nr. 189 ()

Der vollständige Monatsbericht von der Bundesbank mit 1,266 MB Inhalt zum Febraur 2003 vom 17.2.03 gibt es hier: http://www.bundesbank.de/vo/download/mb/2003/02/200302mb.pdf

schrieb am 17.02.03 22:32:09

Beitrag Nr. 190 ()

So und hier die Originalversion der Kurzversion des Berichtes der Bank of Japan. Die Vollversion gibt es ab morgen. (siehe Text)

Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments…(The Bank`s View 2)*
(English translation prepared by the Bank`s staff based on the Japanese original)

1 This report is based on data and information available at the time of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting held on February 13 and 14, 2003.
2 The Bank`s view of recent economic and financial developments, determined by the Policy Board at the Monetary Policy Meeting held on February 13 and 14, 2003, as the basis for monetary policy decisions.
February 17, 2003
Bank of Japan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* The English translation of the full text will be available on February 18.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic activity remains flat amid substantial uncertainty about the outlook for the economy.

With regard to final demand, while the decline in business fixed investment has almost come to a halt, private consumption continues to be weak. Moreover, housing investment remains sluggish and public investment is declining. While domestic demand has yet to show signs of recovery, both exports and imports are increasing at a very modest pace with net exports remaining virtually level.

Industrial production continues to be basically level in response to these developments in final demand. As for the employment situation, new job offers are on a gradual rising trend. In addition, the number of employees, which covers various types of employees including non-regular employees such as temporary workers, appears to be declining at a slower pace. However, firms are still maintaining their stance on reducing personnel expenses, and household income continues to decrease significantly due mainly to an ongoing decline in wages. Thus, the employment and income situation of households overall remains severe.

Turning to the economic outlook, a widely shared view of the prospect for overseas economies in 2003 is that, partly due to the continued firmness in Asian economies, they will follow a gradual recovery path. However, their recovery is likely to be anemic, at least for the time being, given the recent deceleration of the U.S. economy and the weakness in European economies. In this situation, the increase in exports is expected to remain very modest, and industrial production is likely to be more or less unchanged for the immediate future.

With respect to domestic demand, public investment is projected to follow a declining trend, and private consumption is likely to remain weak for some time due to the severe employment and income situation. Business fixed investment is expected to be supported by the improvement in corporate profits to date, but a noticeable recovery is unlikely for the time being due mainly to substantial uncertainty regarding overseas economies.

Overall, assuming that overseas economies will recover in 2003, albeit only at a moderate pace, the increase in exports will accelerate and the uptrend in production will resume sooner or later, which in turn will initiate the momentum for a recovery. However, the economy is unlikely to show clear signs of recovery for some time, since production is expected to be virtually unchanged for the time being while downward pressures such as excessive labor input and debt persist. Furthermore, the downside risk to the economic outlook for overseas economies continues to require attention, given that there are some uncertain factors including geopolitical developments and their economic implications. On the domestic side, stock prices are weak. Hence, careful monitoring is required of progress in the resolution of the nonperforming-loan problem and its effects on stock prices, corporate finance, and the economy.

On the price front, import prices are on a rising trend with some fluctuations, reflecting developments in overseas commodity prices such as crude oil. Domestic corporate goods prices have been declining gradually due to the rise in import prices and the improved supply-demand balance in materials industries, despite the continued fall in machinery prices. Consumer prices and corporate services prices have also been declining gradually.

Looking at the conditions influencing price developments, import prices are projected to be firm for the time being due mainly to developments in crude oil prices. Although the low levels of inventories will support prices to some degree, the overall condition of supply and demand is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on prices while domestic demand continues to be weak for a while. Moreover, factors such as the ongoing technological innovations in machinery and the streamlining of distribution channels will continue to exert downward pressure on prices. Under these circumstances, domestic corporate goods prices are likely to continue a gradual decline for the time being. The pace of year-on-year decline in consumer prices is expected to become somewhat slower. This is because the year-on-year change in prices of petroleum products is expected to become positive, and medical costs are projected to rise from April due to public insurance reforms.

As for the financial environment, the outstanding balance of current accounts at the Bank of Japan is recently moving at around 20 trillion yen, as the Bank provides ample liquidity. Under these circumstances, in the short-term money markets, the overnight call rate continues to hover at very close to zero percent. Moreover, longer-term interest rates continue to be at low levels as a whole.

Yields on long-term government bonds declined further in late January and are recently moving in the range of 0.8-0.9 percent. Yield spreads between private bonds (bank bonds and corporate bonds) and government bonds remain virtually unchanged.

Stock prices continue to be weak reflecting the uncertainty about the domestic economic outlook. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is recently moving at around 8,500 yen.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen fell back slightly toward the end of January as market participants became sensitive to market intervention by the authorities, while the U.S. dollar has been weakening on the whole mainly due to the strained situation in the Middle East. The yen is currently traded in the range of 120-122 yen to the U.S. dollar.

With regard to corporate finance, private banks remain cautious in extending loans to firms with high credit risks while they continue to be more active in extending loans to blue-chip companies. The lending attitudes of financial institutions as perceived by firms, particularly small ones, are severe. In the corporate bond and CP markets, the issuing environment for firms with high credit ratings is accommodative, but the environment for firms with low credit ratings is severe.

Credit demand in the private sector continues to follow a downtrend mainly because business fixed investment remains sluggish and firms are continuously reducing their debts.

Amid these developments, private banks` lending continues to decline by about 2-3 percent on a year-on-year basis. The amount outstanding of corporate bonds and CP issued is moving at around the previous year`s level.

Meanwhile, according to business surveys, the financial position of firms, particularly that of small firms, remains severe.

The year-on-year growth rate of the monetary base dropped to around 10-15 percent in January. The year-on-year growth rate of the money stock is at around 2.0 percent.

Funding costs for firms continue to be at extremely low levels on the whole.

Against the above background, the financial developments are summarized as follows. Money market conditions continue to be extremely easy. Long-term interest rates remain at low levels. The money stock and the monetary base maintain high growth rates relative to that of economic activity as a whole. However, stock prices remain weak. In corporate finance, the fund-raising environment of firms with low credit risks is accommodative on the whole, but with regard to firms with high credit risks, the stance of investors is severe and the lending attitudes of private banks continue to be cautious. Developments in the financial and capital markets, the behavior of financial institutions, and the situation of corporate finance continue to require close monitoring.

schrieb am 17.02.03 22:33:42

Beitrag Nr. 191 ()

Dienstag 18.2.2003:

8:00 J: BoJ Governor News Conference
8:00 D: Umsatz und die Zahl der Beschäftigten im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe
und Bergbau Dezember und Jahr 2002
9:00 Italien: CPI Januar (endgültig)
10:30 D: DIHK zur Konjunktursituation
10:30 GB: harmonisierte Verbraucherpreise
10:30 GB: Einzelhandelspreise Januar
11:00 D: ZEW Konjunkturbericht Februar
12:00 EU: Eurostat-Industrieproduktion Dezember Euro-Zone

Deutsche Börse AG mit Jahreszahlen (vorläufig) und Analsystenkonferenz
11:00 Allianz Dresdner Asset Management über das Pensions-Business in Europa und Deutschland
WAL-MART STORES Q4 EPS: zR +0,49 Z +0,55 F +0,56 R +0,56 (13:30 Earnings Conference Call)
14:00 ? Telefonkonferenz der Deutschen Börse AG
UBS Jahreszahlen 2002

Reuters Jahreszahlen R: PTAX 55-118 m (UK Observer sieht den Verlust bei 551 Mio. USD)

Wien: 108. OPEC Treffen vom Board der Governors

schrieb am 18.02.03 21:22:17

Beitrag Nr. 192 ()

Das volle Statement der Bank of Japan ist heute zu lesen. Ich habe es mal nicht mit reingestellt.

Die Nasdaq schnellt so langsam nach oben, nachdem man erkennt, daß die Elektronik doch nach wie vor gefragt ist, und es einen Produktionseinbruch im Januar gegeben hat. Auch der Ausblick von Microsoft, der einen baldigen Anstieg der Nachfrage nach drahtlosen Smart Anwendungen sieht dürfte dazu beigetragen haben.

Frühindikatoren in Japan für Dezmber zeigten sich mit 63,6 w…

=> Ganz positive News was den Dezember angeht.

Dazu noch von gern Abend eine nette Nachricht zu VW:

The figures have yet to be formally approved by the board.

The group, which is suffering from an ageing product range as it battles weak demand and unfavourable exchange rates said in October it aimed to post a pre-tax figure of around four billion euros for the full year. A Reuters poll of 26 analysts forecast on average a result of 3.96 billion euros.

A company source said earlier VW would publish its 2002 results on Wednesday morning.

The group is depending on its recently-launched Touran minivan to boost its sales this year at a time when its top-selling Golf and Passat models are beginning to look long in the tooth alongside fresher-faced rivals.

At 1823 GMT, VW shares were up 0.3 percent at 35.69 euros, underperforming the DJ European auto index, which was up 0.8 percent.

The company, whose shares have outperformed the European sector by more than four percent since the start of the year, faces tough competition from peers such as Renault , which is also trying to run down older models ahead of new launches.

Renault said last week tough cost-cutting and buoyant sales outside Europe had powered its core profits higher last year, although it disappointed investors with a cautious outlook.

PSA Peugeot Citroen, another of VW`s main rivals, said last week its 2002 operating profit also jumped last year." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">VW met 2002 pre-tax profit goal-source

FRANKFURT, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Europe`s largest carmaker Volkswagen AG will have met its four billion euro pre-tax profit goal when it reports figures for 2002 later this week, an industry source told Reuters on Monday.

Asked whether Volkswagen`s pre-tax profit result for 2002 would have a four at the beginning, the source said: "You can be 99.9 percent sure."

The figures have yet to be formally approved by the board.

The group, which is suffering from an ageing product range as it battles weak demand and unfavourable exchange rates said in October it aimed to post a pre-tax figure of around four billion euros for the full year. A Reuters poll of 26 analysts forecast on average a result of 3.96 billion euros.

A company source said earlier VW would publish its 2002 results on Wednesday morning.

The group is depending on its recently-launched Touran minivan to boost its sales this year at a time when its top-selling Golf and Passat models are beginning to look long in the tooth alongside fresher-faced rivals.

At 1823 GMT, VW shares were up 0.3 percent at 35.69 euros, underperforming the DJ European auto index, which was up 0.8 percent.

The company, whose shares have outperformed the European sector by more than four percent since the start of the year, faces tough competition from peers such as Renault , which is also trying to run down older models ahead of new launches.

Renault said last week tough cost-cutting and buoyant sales outside Europe had powered its core profits higher last year, although it disappointed investors with a cautious outlook.

PSA Peugeot Citroen, another of VW`s main rivals, said last week its 2002 operating profit also jumped last year.

Das waren schon mal gute Vorgaben für den Tagesstart.

Verarbeitendes Gewerbe 2002 mit Umsatzminus und Personalabbau

Wiesbaden, 18. Feb (Reuters) - Das Verarbeitende Gewerbe hat im vergangenen Jahr bei sinkenden Umsätzen die Zahl seiner Beschäftigten deutlich gesenkt.

Im Jahresdurchschnitt seien gut 6,2 Millionen Menschen in den Betrieben der Branche tätig gewesen und damit 183.600 oder 2,9 Prozent weniger als 2001, teilte das Statistische Bundesamt am Dienstag in Wiesbaden mit. Der Gesamtumsatz im Bergbau und im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe sank um 1,5 Prozent. Dabei setzten die Unternehmen im Inland drei Prozent weniger um, wogegen der Auslandsumsatz um gut ein Prozent zulegte. Insgesamt wurden knapp fünf Prozent weniger Arbeitsstunden geleistet und knapp ein Prozent weniger Lohn und Gehalt ausgezahlt.

Zum Jahresende erholte sich der Umsatz in dem Sektor. Im Dezember verzeichnete das Statistikamt ein Plus von knapp fünf Prozent zum Vorjahresmonat, wobei der Inlandsumsatz um gut zwei Prozent und der Auslandsumsatz sogar um mehr als neun Prozent zulegte. Ende Dezember 2002 waren dem Amt zufolge 208.400 oder 3,3 Prozent weniger Personen in den Betrieben des Sektors mit mehr als 20 Beschäftigten tätig als ein Jahr zuvor.

=> Das ist eine Entwicklung mit der wohl kaum einer gerechnet hat. Im Dezember ist der hat der Euro schon massiv gegenüber dem Dollar zugelegt, und dennoch sind die Aufträge extrem gestiegen. Aus meiner Sicht zeigt das, daß ein schwacher Dollar nicht alles für einen guten Export ist.

TABELLE-Italiens Jahresteuerung im Januar bei 2,7 Prozent

Rom, 18. Feb (Reuters) - Die Verbraucherpreise in Italien
sind im Januar im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum um 2,7 Prozent
gestiegen. Das Statistikinstitut Istat teilte am Dienstag in Rom
folgende endgültige Daten mit:
JAN 03 DEZ 02 JAN 02
VERBRAUCHERPREISE
Veränderung gg. Vormonat + 0,3 + 0,1 + 0,4 vH
Veränderung gg. Vorjahr + 2,7 + 2,8 + 2,4 vH
Index (Basis 1995) 120,5 120,1 117,3

HARMONISIERTE
VERBRAUCHERPREISE JAN 03 DEZ 02 JAN 02

Veränderung gg. Vormonat -0,1 + 0,2 - 0,1.vH
(rev. v. 0,0)
Veränderung gg. Vorjahr + 3,0 + 3,0 + 2,3 vH
(rev. v. + 3,1)
Index (Basis 1996) 104,0 104,1 101,0

ANMERKUNG VON ALTERBEKANNTER: SPÄTER HABE ICH GELSEN DER CPI IST 2,8% und nicht wie hier geschrieben 2,7%.

Interessant das der Harmonisierte Index sogar abgibt. Ich denke das ist alles im Bereich des Normalen.

"Non-shop" services 7.5 6.9

NOTE - The ONS said petrol and oil prices rose 7.2 percent
on a year earlier, the highest annual rate
since December 2000.
The ONS said the biggest upward effect came from clothing
and footwear prices and motoring costs. The
largest downward effect came from seasonal food as large price
rises a year earlier were not repeated in
January." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">TABLE-UK Jan RPIX up 2.7 pct year-on-year

LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics released the following retail price indices (Jan
1987=100)
JAN DEC
RPI
Mth-on-mth (pct) -0.1 0.2
Yr-on-yr 2.9 2.9
Index (base Jan 1987) 178.4 178.5
RPIX (RPI ex. mgages)
Mth-on-mth -0.1 0.1
Yr-on-yr 2.7 2.7
Index 177.1 177.2
RPIY (RPI ex mgage,tax)
Mth-on-mth UNCH 0.1
Yr-on-yr 2.9 2.9
Index 169.8 169.8
HARMONISED INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES (1996=100)
Yr-on-yr 1.4 1.7
Index 108.6 109.3
NOTE - Consensus forecasts:
mth/mth yr/yr
RPI -0.4 2.8 pct
RPIX -0.2 2.6 pct
RPIY -0.1 2.7 pct

COMPONENTS OF ALL-ITEMS RPI (pct):
JAN YR/YR DEC YR/YR
Food 0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -0.4
seasonal food 0.1 -7.7 -0.1 -4.0
Non-seasonal food UNCH 0.3 -0.1 0.4
Catering 0.3 3.3 0.3 3.4
Alcoholic Drink 0.5 2.2 -0.2 2.3
Tobacco UNCH 3.0 0.1 3.0
Housing 0.6 8.4 0.5 8.3
Fuel and light 0.3 2.0 0.6 3.7
Household goods -3.7 0.2 2.2 0.1
Household services 0.8 5.3 0.1 4.9
Clothing and footwear -3.8 -3.2 -1.8 -4.7
Personal goods & services -0.4 1.2 0.4 1.7
Motoring expenditure 1.5 1.6 -0.4 1.1
Fares & travel costs 0.4 3.5 0.3 3.1
Leisure goods -1.0 -3.8 -0.4 -3.4
Leisure services 0.4 8.6 0.2 9.1

JAN DEC
ALL GOODS RPI YR/YR -0.3 -0.4
Petrol & Oil 7.2 5.8
Other goods -2.1 -2.1
ALL SERVICES RPI YR/YR 4.6 4.8
Rent 2.0 2.2
Utilities 0.9 1.9
"Shop" services 5.0 5.4
"Non-shop" services 7.5 6.9

NOTE - The ONS said petrol and oil prices rose 7.2 percent
on a year earlier, the highest annual rate
since December 2000.
The ONS said the biggest upward effect came from clothing
and footwear prices and motoring costs. The
largest downward effect came from seasonal food as large price
rises a year earlier were not repeated in
January.

Das Benzin bestimmt hier schon den Trend. Dazu muß man allerdings anmerken, daß die Briten immerhin ein wenig Öl auch im eigenen Boden haben. Die Kleidungsindustrie sieht nicht so rosig aus. Wahnsinn sind die Preisaufschläge zum Teil im Service Sector.

Die Investitionspläne der mehr als 25.000 befragten Unternehmen sanken auf dem tiefsten Stand seit 25 Jahren, die Beschäftigungspläne auf das niedrigste Niveau seit der Rezession 1993.

Der seit zwei Jahren andauernde Abwärtstrend der Lageeinschätzung durch die Unternehmen sei zwar gestoppt. "Von einer Bodenbildung kann aber mit Blick auf die Erwartungen keine Rede sein", heißt es in der Umfrage. Nur noch 18 Prozent der Unternehmen beurteilten ihre Geschäftserwartungen optimistisch, 40 Prozent blickten dagegen pessimistisch in die Zukunft. Weiterhin düster sehe es vor allem im Handel und der Bauwirtschaft aus. Im vergangenen Herbst hatten noch 26 Prozent der befragten Firmen optimistisch und 29 Prozent pessimistisch in die Zukunft geblickt. Der DIHK erwartet daher in diesem Jahr eine Stagnation des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts, nachdem er zuletzt noch von einem Plus von knapp ein Prozent ausgegangen war.

DIHK KRITISIERT REGIERUNG UND ZU HOHE TARIFVERTRÄGE

Der DIHK kritisierte die unstetige Wirtschaftspolitik der Bundesregierung, die dazu beitrage, dass sich bei Investoren eine lähmende Verunsicherung ausbreite. Zentrale Ursache für den schwächelnden Arbeitsmarkt seien zu hohe Tarifabschlüsse vom vergangenen Sommer, sagte Wansleben. Anders als von den Gewerkschaften angekündigt, seien Nachfrageimpulse ausgeblieben. Stattdessen bremse die Sorge um den Arbeitsplatz den Konsum. Unternehmen wie Verbrauchern mangele es insgesamt an einer klaren Reformperspektive. "Der ersehnte Befreiungsschlag auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und bei den Sozialsystemen bleibt bisher aus", sagte der DIHK-Hauptgeschäftsführer.

EXPORT BLEIBT AUCH 2003 HOFFNUNGSANKER DER UNTERNEHMEN

Dynamik erwartet der DIHK im laufenden Jahr erneut allenfalls vom Export. Im vergangenen Jahr war das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) lediglich um 0,2 Prozent gewachsen und wäre ohne den starken Außenbeitrag sogar geschrumpft. Nach DIHK-Angaben sehen die meisten befragten Firmen die Exportaussichten für dieses Jahr optimistisch. "Irak-Konflikt und Euro-Stärke dürften sich nur temporär, nicht aber durchschlagend im Gesamtergebnis des Jahres 2003 negativ auswirken", sagte Wansleben. Eine Rezession der Weltwirtschaft werde nicht befürchtet.

Vom starken Außenhandel erwartet der DIHK jedoch auch in diesem Jahr kaum Impulse für die heimische Nachfrage. "Selbst wenn sich die Weltkonjunktur wieder beleben sollte, dürfte der Funke von der Exportwirtschaft kaum auf die Binnenwirtschaft wirklich überspringen", fügte Wansleben hinzu.

Die aktuelle Investitionsneigung der Unternehmen liege noch unter dem Rekordtief des Frühsommers 2002. Insgesamt planten 45 Prozent der befragten Firmen ihre Investitionsausgaben zu kürzen; nur 15 Prozent wollten sie erhöhen. Die Beschäftigungspläne der Unternehmen sind der Umfrage zufolge so schlecht wie seit den Entlassungswellen nach dem Rezessionsjahr 1993 nicht mehr. Während nur acht Prozent Stellen schaffen wollen, planen fast vier von zehn Unternehmen einen Arbeitsplatzabbau." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">FOKUS 2-DIHK - Bei schwachem Export droht Deutschland Rezession

Berlin, 18. Feb (Reuters) - Für die Konjunktur in Deutschland ist nach der jüngsten Firmenumfrage des Deutschen Industrie- und Handelskammertages (DIHK) derzeit keine Besserung in Sicht. Der DIHK rechnet daher in diesem Jahr nur noch mit einer Stagnation der deutschen Wirtschaftsleistung.

"Sollten die Exporthoffnungen - gefährdet durch einen längeren Irak-Konflikt - trügen, muss in Deutschland eine Rezession befürchtet werden", teilte der DIHK zum Ergebnis seiner traditionellen Konjunkturumfrage am Dienstag in Berlin mit. "Deutschland steckt tief in einer Konjunkturflaute", sagte DIHK-Hauptgeschäftsführer Martin Wansleben laut Redetext. Die Investitionspläne der mehr als 25.000 befragten Unternehmen sanken auf dem tiefsten Stand seit 25 Jahren, die Beschäftigungspläne auf das niedrigste Niveau seit der Rezession 1993.

Der seit zwei Jahren andauernde Abwärtstrend der Lageeinschätzung durch die Unternehmen sei zwar gestoppt. "Von einer Bodenbildung kann aber mit Blick auf die Erwartungen keine Rede sein", heißt es in der Umfrage. Nur noch 18 Prozent der Unternehmen beurteilten ihre Geschäftserwartungen optimistisch, 40 Prozent blickten dagegen pessimistisch in die Zukunft. Weiterhin düster sehe es vor allem im Handel und der Bauwirtschaft aus. Im vergangenen Herbst hatten noch 26 Prozent der befragten Firmen optimistisch und 29 Prozent pessimistisch in die Zukunft geblickt. Der DIHK erwartet daher in diesem Jahr eine Stagnation des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts, nachdem er zuletzt noch von einem Plus von knapp ein Prozent ausgegangen war.

DIHK KRITISIERT REGIERUNG UND ZU HOHE TARIFVERTRÄGE

Der DIHK kritisierte die unstetige Wirtschaftspolitik der Bundesregierung, die dazu beitrage, dass sich bei Investoren eine lähmende Verunsicherung ausbreite. Zentrale Ursache für den schwächelnden Arbeitsmarkt seien zu hohe Tarifabschlüsse vom vergangenen Sommer, sagte Wansleben. Anders als von den Gewerkschaften angekündigt, seien Nachfrageimpulse ausgeblieben. Stattdessen bremse die Sorge um den Arbeitsplatz den Konsum. Unternehmen wie Verbrauchern mangele es insgesamt an einer klaren Reformperspektive. "Der ersehnte Befreiungsschlag auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und bei den Sozialsystemen bleibt bisher aus", sagte der DIHK-Hauptgeschäftsführer.

EXPORT BLEIBT AUCH 2003 HOFFNUNGSANKER DER UNTERNEHMEN

Dynamik erwartet der DIHK im laufenden Jahr erneut allenfalls vom Export. Im vergangenen Jahr war das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) lediglich um 0,2 Prozent gewachsen und wäre ohne den starken Außenbeitrag sogar geschrumpft. Nach DIHK-Angaben sehen die meisten befragten Firmen die Exportaussichten für dieses Jahr optimistisch. "Irak-Konflikt und Euro-Stärke dürften sich nur temporär, nicht aber durchschlagend im Gesamtergebnis des Jahres 2003 negativ auswirken", sagte Wansleben. Eine Rezession der Weltwirtschaft werde nicht befürchtet.

Vom starken Außenhandel erwartet der DIHK jedoch auch in diesem Jahr kaum Impulse für die heimische Nachfrage. "Selbst wenn sich die Weltkonjunktur wieder beleben sollte, dürfte der Funke von der Exportwirtschaft kaum auf die Binnenwirtschaft wirklich überspringen", fügte Wansleben hinzu.

Die aktuelle Investitionsneigung der Unternehmen liege noch unter dem Rekordtief des Frühsommers 2002. Insgesamt planten 45 Prozent der befragten Firmen ihre Investitionsausgaben zu kürzen; nur 15 Prozent wollten sie erhöhen. Die Beschäftigungspläne der Unternehmen sind der Umfrage zufolge so schlecht wie seit den Entlassungswellen nach dem Rezessionsjahr 1993 nicht mehr. Während nur acht Prozent Stellen schaffen wollen, planen fast vier von zehn Unternehmen einen Arbeitsplatzabbau.

=> Die Zeiten sind schlecht, das wissen wir. Ob hier ein Tiefpunkt beschrieben wird, wissen wir erst später. Alles in allem ein ziemlich wenig ausagekräftiger Artikel. Eine Rezession der Weltwirtschaft würde man nicht beführchten, die sind lustig, was haben wir denn dann aktuell?

Das Stimmungsbarometer für die Euro-Zone sank den ZEW-Angaben zufolge auf 28,7 Zähler nach 29,9 Punkten im Januar.

Das ZEW befragt monatlich gut 300 Analysten und institutionelle Anleger zu ihren mittelfristigen Erwartungen hinsichtlich Konjunktur, Zinsen, Aktien- und Wechselkursen. Der Saldo der Konjunkturerwartungen gibt die Differenz der positiven und der negativen Einsch tzungen f r die Wirtschaftsentwicklung auf Sicht von sechs Monaten wieder." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">ZEW-Konjunkturbarometer im Februar überraschend gestiegen

Mannheim, 18. Feb (Reuters) - Die Konjunkturaussichten für Deutschland haben sich im Februar einer Umfrage des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) zufolge erneut überraschend etwas verbessert.

Der vom ZEW ermittelte Saldo der Konjunkturerwartungen der befragten Analysten und institutionellen Anleger sei auf 15,0 Punkte von 14,0 Zählern im Januar gestiegen, teilte das ZEW am Dienstag in Mannheim mit. Von Reuters befragte Volkswirte hatten im Schnitt mit einem Rückgang auf 8,8 Punkte gerechnet. Der Anstieg im Januar war der erste seit sieben Monaten gewesen.

Dem ZEW zufolge weist der Indikator allerdings nur auf ein schwaches Wachstum in Deutschland im zweiten Halbjahr hin. "Die Lage bleibt weiterhin labil, wir bewegen uns zwischen Hoffen und Bangen", erklärte ZEW-Präsident Wolfgang Franz. Das Stimmungsbarometer für die Euro-Zone sank den ZEW-Angaben zufolge auf 28,7 Zähler nach 29,9 Punkten im Januar.

Das ZEW befragt monatlich gut 300 Analysten und institutionelle Anleger zu ihren mittelfristigen Erwartungen hinsichtlich Konjunktur, Zinsen, Aktien- und Wechselkursen. Der Saldo der Konjunkturerwartungen gibt die Differenz der positiven und der negativen Einsch tzungen f r die Wirtschaftsentwicklung auf Sicht von sechs Monaten wieder.

=> Das ist doch mal eine positive Überraschung gewesen. Eine die den Anstieg des Dax wohl deutlich rechtfertigt heute.

Bundesbank revidiert Auftragseingang für Dezember

Frankfurt, 18. Feb (Reuters) - Die Deutsche Bundesbank hat
am Dienstag in Frankfurt folgende saisonbereinigte Zahlen für
den Auftragseingang in der deutschen Industrie im Dezember
veröffentlicht:

DEZ 2002 NOV 2002
GESAMTDEUTSCHLAND
Index (Basis 1995) 119,4 124,9
(rev. v. 119,8)

WESTDEUTSCHLAND
Index (Basis 1995) 116,4 122,0
(rev. v. 116,7)

OSTDEUTSCHLAND
Index (Basis 1995) 169,3 174,0
(rev. v. 172,5)

NOTE - Damit revidierte die Bundesbank den Auftragseingang
in der deutschen Industrie im Dezember auf minus 4,4 Prozent zum
Vormonat nach zuvor gemeldeten minus 4,1 Prozent. Die
ursprünglichen Zahlen für Dezember waren vom Bundesministerium
für Wirtschaft und Arbeit (BMWA) am 6. Februar veröffentlicht
worden.

Alte Zahlen die schlecht waren wurde damit noch einmal noch etwas schlechter revidiert. Was natürlich keine Gute News war, aber sie war eigentlich schon alt.

Industrieproduktion in Euro-Zone im Dezember gesunken

Brüssel, 18. Feb (Reuters) - Das Europäische Statistikamt
Eurostat hat am Dienstag in Brüssel folgende Daten zur
Entwicklung der Industrieproduktion in den Mitgliedsländern der
Europäischen Währungsunion (Euro-12) im Dezember veröffentlicht:

INDUSTRIEPRODUKTION DEZ 2002 NOV 2002
(ohne Bau)

EURO-12
Monatsveränderungsrate - 1,5 vH* + 0,7 vH
(rev. v. + 1,0)
Jahresveränderungsrate - 0,5 vH + 2,8 vH
(rev. v. + 3,0)

NOTE - *Rekordrückgang
Die Jahresrate ist arbeitstündich bereinigt, die
Monatsveränderungsrate saisonbereinigt. Von Reuters befragte
Analysten hatten mit einem Minus von 1,6 Prozent zum Vormonat
und einem Plus im Jahresvergleich von 1,1 Prozent gerechnet.

==> Das waren dann wieder mal schlechte Nachrichten. Deutschland und Frankreich haben diesen Index massiv mit nach unten gezogen.

Wal-Mart beats by a penny (WMT) 49.15: Reports Q4 (Jan) earn…

=> Gute NEWS, besser als erwartet. Was mich erstaunt hat sind die guten Umsätze. So schlecht kann es der Wirtschaft dann auch nicht gehen. Der Ausblick ist am unteren Ende der Erwartungen, aber immer noch in Line wie ich meine.

Ansonsten legen Intel und Microsoft heute gut zu, und auch die DRAMs steigen wieder mal.

Ein weiteren Blick sollten wir nicht vergessen und der ist auf das ÖL gerichtet. Es sind die höchsten Heizölpreise seit 1979. Hier bekommt man doch etwas Schwindelgefühl. Aktuell sehe ich Kurse von 33,60 USD für das Brent Crude. Gepusht werden hier die Preise durch den Willen von Großbritannien und den USA eine zweite UN Resulotion zu verabschieden. Auch haben die USA 28000 weitere Soldaten in die Golfregion geschickt. So daß sie jetzt etwas 182.000 Soldaten in der Region haben. Anfang März werden es dann so um die 200.000 Soldaten dort sein.

schrieb am 18.02.03 21:23:21

Beitrag Nr. 193 ()

19:10 Rede des Präsidenten der Federal Reserve von Dallas, Robert McTeer, zum Thema "A Status Report on the U.S. Economy" anlässlich eines Wirtschaftsseminars der Federal Reserve von Dallas (19:10)

Lucent Jahresversammlung

HypoVereinsbank (HVB), 2002 Gesamt
Hochtief AG, 2002 Gesamt (vorläufig)
Schwarz Pharma AG, Jahreszahlen, PK und Anlystenkonferenz (habe sie hier mal rein geschrieben wg. des Medikaments Omeprazol was gut läuft)

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Mittwoch 19.2.2003:

J: BOJ - Protokoll des geldpolitischen Treffens vom 21./22. Januar
J: Govt Economic Report Feb

8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt-Beschäftigungsentwicklung im Einzelhandel 2002
8:45 F: Leistungsbilanz Dezember
9:30 GB: BoE - Protokoll des geldpolitischen Treffens vom 5./6. Februar
12:00 EU: Eurostat - Handelsbilanz Dezember (vorläufig) und November (revidiert)
13:00 US: Mortage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index 14.2.2003
13:45 USA: BTM chain store sales
14:30 USA: Hausbaubeginne Januar zA 1,835 Mio. C 1,775 Mio. A 1,760 Mio. F 1,750 Mio.
14:30 USA: Hausbauerlaubnis Januar zA 1,887 Mio. C 1,800 Mio. A 1,790 Mio.
14:55 USA: Reedbook

18:00 Rede von US-Finanzminister John Snow zum Thema "The President`s Jobs and Growth Package"
19:10 Rede des Präsidenten der Federal Reserve von Dallas, Robert McTeer, zum Thema "A Status Report on the U.S. Economy" anlässlich eines Wirtschaftsseminars der Federal Reserve von Dallas (19:10)

Lucent Jahresversammlung

HypoVereinsbank (HVB), 2002 Gesamt
Hochtief AG, 2002 Gesamt (vorläufig)
Schwarz Pharma AG, Jahreszahlen, PK und Anlystenkonferenz (habe sie hier mal rein geschrieben wg. des Medikaments Omeprazol was gut läuft)

schrieb am 18.02.03 21:26:49

Beitrag Nr. 194 ()

Zum Nachdenken

:

Und nicht vergessen Freitag ist kleiner Verfallstag.

schrieb am 19.02.03 19:25:22

Beitrag Nr. 195 ()

Heute war ein Tag der Wiedersprüche. Aber gestern waren die Bewegungen im Gold und im Öl ein Indiz dafür.

Morgan Stanley stuft die einige Halbleiterriesen schön hoch, dafür stuft jemand anders die Nokia runter. Komisch eigentlich, wenn man den kommenden Aufschwung gerade an diesen kleinen drahtlosen bluetooth Anwendung festmachen will.

Na wie dem auch sei, die book to bill ist unter 1 für diesen Monat mit 0,92. Das ist keine gute News. Ein Index unter 1 bedeutet weiteres schrumpfen den Sectors.

So entläßt Micron auch mal eben 10% der Belegschaft...

Die Zahlen von den Hausbaubeginnen liegen schön positiv über den Erwartungen der Analysten, doch gibt es da noch so einen Häulsebauer Index, und der hat stark abgegeben, was das Häuslebauer Verbrauchervertrauen angeht. Also noch ein Wiederspruch. Ist es nun ein starker Trend der weiter geht, oder war es das erst einmal.

Motorola sieht die Preise für Handys weiter fallen, was ja auch nicht so Klasse für die Marge ist. Na dann noch ähnlich schlechte Kommentare von Nortel, die den Markt um 10% ist 2003 schrumpfen sehen, oder Novellus die keinen großen positven Ausblick wagen.

Die Chain Sotre Sales/BTM sind mal wieder gemischt, ganz bunt, denn zuerst sagte man sie sind leicht negativ und man berichtigt sie später als doch positiv. Noch so ein Wiederspruch heute. Aber es sind ja auch zwei Indikatoren.

Tja und dann noch die Deutsche Telekom mit ihrem Convertibel Offering...

Und wenn die Araber nicht die US Wirtschaft ruinieren mit den hohen Ölpreisen, dann sind es die Ammis eben selbst mit ihrem Zündelwahn.

schrieb am 20.02.03 21:33:18

Beitrag Nr. 196 ()

Soviel mal zum Tagesgeschehen für heute.

schrieb am 22.02.03 12:38:41

Beitrag Nr. 197 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Mittwoch:

19:10 Rede des Präsidenten der Federal Reserve von Dallas, Robert McTeer, zum Thema "A Status Report on the U.S. Economy" anlässlich eines Wirtschaftsseminars der Federal Reserve von Dallas (19:10)

Lucent Jahresversammlung

HypoVereinsbank (HVB), 2002 Gesamt
Hochtief AG, 2002 Gesamt (vorläufig)
Schwarz Pharma AG, Jahreszahlen, PK und Anlystenkonferenz (habe sie hier mal rein geschrieben wg. des Medikaments Omeprazol was gut läuft)
" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Mittwoch 19.2.2003:

J: BOJ - Protokoll des geldpolitischen Treffens vom 21./22. Januar
J: Govt Economic Report Feb

8:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt-Beschäftigungsentwicklung im Einzelhandel 2002
8:45 F: Leistungsbilanz Dezember
9:30 GB: BoE - Protokoll des geldpolitischen Treffens vom 5./6. Februar
12:00 EU: Eurostat - Handelsbilanz Dezember (vorläufig) und November (revidiert)
13:00 US: Mortage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index 14.2.2003
13:45 USA: BTM chain store sales
14:30 USA: Hausbaubeginne Januar zA 1,835 Mio. C 1,775 Mio. A 1,760 Mio. F 1,750 Mio.
14:30 USA: Hausbauerlaubnis Januar zA 1,887 Mio. C 1,800 Mio. A 1,790 Mio.
14:55 USA: Reedbook

18:00 Rede von US-Finanzminister John Snow zum Thema "The President`s Jobs and Growth Package"
19:10 Rede des Präsidenten der Federal Reserve von Dallas, Robert McTeer, zum Thema "A Status Report on the U.S. Economy" anlässlich eines Wirtschaftsseminars der Federal Reserve von Dallas (19:10)

Lucent Jahresversammlung

HypoVereinsbank (HVB), 2002 Gesamt
Hochtief AG, 2002 Gesamt (vorläufig)
Schwarz Pharma AG, Jahreszahlen, PK und Anlystenkonferenz (habe sie hier mal rein geschrieben wg. des Medikaments Omeprazol was gut läuft)

Euro-12 Dec Trade Surplus EUR7.4B Vs Revised Nov EUR9.6B

BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The euro-zone trade surplus shrank more than expected in December by EUR2.2 billion to EUR7.4 billion, European Union statistics agency Eurostat said Wednesday.

That is below the EUR8.8 billion surplus forecast by economists.

Export growth was timid as the stronger euro made euro-zone businesses less competitive. Exports fell 9% to EUR84.4 billion, compared with EUR92.8 billion in November.

Eurostat revised the euro-zone November trade surplus downward to EUR9.6 billion from its first estimate of EUR9.9 billion.

For all of 2002, the euro zone recorded a EUR102.3 billion surplus, compared with a EUR49.5 billion surplus the previous year.

The 15-member E.U., which also includes the U.K., Denmark and Sweden, ran a December surplus of EUR2.0 billion. That was up from a revised surplus of EUR0.1 billion in November, but down from a EUR2.6 billion surplus a year earlier.

Euro-12 Nov Trade: Table Of Data

The following tables show breakdowns of the trade data:

(In EUR billions)

Dec`02 Nov`02 Dec`01 %Change
on yr
Euro-12 trade
surplus 7.4 9.6* 8.5
Euro-12 imports 77.1 83.2* 74.1 +4%
Euro-12 exports 84.4 92.8* 82.6 +2%
Intra Euro-12 dispatches 84.1 93.2* 80.8 +4%
E.U. trade surplus 2.0 0.1* 2.6
E.U. imports 76.7 83.9* 73.9 +4%
E.U. exports 78.7 84.0* 76.5 +3%
Intra E.U.-15 dispatches 122.0 138.0* 119.3 +2%
(Negative figures indicate a deficit)

*Figures have been revised

Jan-Dec`02 Jan-Dec`01
Euro-12 trade surplus 102.3 49.5
E.U. trade surplus 6.1 -42.7
Euro-12 Main Trading Partners
Jan-Nov`02
Jan-Nov`01
surplus surplus
U.S. 46.4 35.0
Japan -16.3 -21.2
U.K. 51.6 40.7
Switzerland 9.9 11.9
China -26.3 -26.9
Sweden 2.3 2.0
Russia -12.5 -16.2
Poland 7.6 7.2
Czech Republic 1.7 2.2
Hungary 0.0 -0.6
(Negative figures indicate a deficit)

E.U. Main Trading Partners
Jan-Nov`02
Jan-Nov`01
surplus surplus
U.S. 58.2 40.8
Japan -23.9 -29.9
Switzerland 11.0 13.3
China -43.8 -42.8
Russia -15.7 -18.7
Norway -14.3 -17.5
Poland 8.7 8.4
Czech Republic 1.6 2.4
Hungary 0.2 -0.9
Turkey 1.9 -0.1
(Negative figures indicate a deficit)

==> Die Zahlen waren also schlechter als die Erwartungen und die November Zahlen wurden zum noch nach unten revidiert.

=> Aber dennoch bleibt, das die EU gegenüber dem Vorajahr ihren Außenhandelsüberschuß verdoppeln konnte.
=> Gegenüber dem Vorjahr ergibt sich ein Plus von wenigen Prozenten beim Im- und Export der 12 EU Länder, was uns nach den Anschlägen im Sept 01 nicht zu sehr positiv stimmen sollte.
=> Daher ein negativer Impuls von diesen Zahlen.

This soft patch in the last two weeks follows a seven-week period with two declines and five increases. The 16-week trend rate of change remained up and is now increasing at an average weekly pace of 0.23% per week.

On a year-over-year basis, however, sales momentum fell off sharply to show a 1.5% decline after a 0.6% increase in the prior week." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">BTM/UBS Warburg US Chain Store Sales -0.1% In Feb 15 Wk

BT…

=> Die Zahl ist negativ, damit ein kurzfristiger negativer Impuls, der 16 Wochen Trend zeigt noch eine Zunahme von 0,23% was positiv ist und ein ganz langsames (aus meiner Sicht aber zu langsames) Wachstum anzeigt. Daher ein ganz leicht negativer Impuls:

(Gute Zahlen, die Frage ob es hier zu einem Sell on Good news kommt.)

attracting customers into stores," the report said.
"Meanwhile, people concerned about terrorist activity were
stocking up on consumable items."
The Redbook Average is compiled from a sample of general
merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.
Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least a
year." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">U.S. chain store sales rose two weeks Feb-report
NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales grew
modestly during the second week of February as customers purchased
Valentine`s Day gifts and stocked up on canned goods, a report
said on Wednesday.
Sales at major U.S. chain stores grew 0.5 percent in the
two weeks ended Feb. 15, compared with the average for the
preceding month, Instinet Research said in its weekly Redbook
report.
Sales rose 0.1 percent in the week ended Feb. 15 compared
with the same week a year ago, the report said.
"Valentine`s Day was a major draw for some merchants,
attracting customers into stores," the report said.
"Meanwhile, people concerned about terrorist activity were
stocking up on consumable items."
The Redbook Average is compiled from a sample of general
merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.
Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least a
year.

Leicht positive News.

schrieb am 22.02.03 13:21:45

Beitrag Nr. 198 ()

Aufarbeitung der Zahlen von Donnerstag:

Donnerstag 20.2.2003:

I: Industrieaufträge
I: Industireumsätze
8:00 D: Bauhauptgewerbe Auftragseingänge Dezember und Jahr 2002
10:00 I: Verbrauchervertrauen Februar
10:30 GB: Einzelhandelsumsätze Januar
11:00 ? EU: EZB Ratssitzung
12:00 GB: CBI Konjunkturberichts Februar
14:30 USA: Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe für die Woche zum 15.2.03 zA 377K C 386K A 385 F 385
14:30 USA: PPI Jan z 0,0% C +0,4% A +0,3%
14:30 USA: PPI Core Jan z -0,3% C +0,1% A +0,1%
14:30 USA: Außenhandel: z -40,1 Mrd.USD C -38,5 Mrd.USD A -39,7 Mrd.USD
15:00 USA: Energy Information Administration weekly petroleum stocks and output data
16:00 USA: Frühindikatoren z +0,1% C 0,0% A 0,0%
18:00 USA: Konjunkturindex der Philadelphia FED Februar z +11,2 C +11,0 A +11,5 F 11,2
22:30 USA: ICI weekly money market mutual fund data, Woche vom 10.2.03

8:00 TotalFinalElf, Gesamt 2002 R NET: 6,658 Mrd.
10:00 DaimlerChrysler AG, Bilanz-PK und endgültige Zahlen 2002
Hugo Boss AG, Gesamt 2002 (vorläufig)
Bilfinger + Berger Jahreszahlen (vorläufig)
CIENA CORP Q1 (before open) EPS: zR -0,17 USD R -0,14 USD
Nextel Communications (14:30 Earings Conference Call) EPS: zR -2,29 USD R +0,10
RadioShack Corporation (15:00 Earnings Conference Call)EPS: zR +0,67 R +0,59
JC Penny (15:30 Earnings Conference Call) EPS: zR +0,35 R +0,66 USD
Nordstrom Inc EPS: zR +0,38 R 0,42

Weniger Aufträge im deutschen Baugewerbe in 2002
Wiesbaden, 20. Feb (Reuters) - Das Statistische Bundesamt
hat am Donnerstag in Wiesbaden für die Bauindustrie folgende
Daten zum Auftragseingang für Dezember und das Gesamtjahr 2002
veröffentlicht:

DEZ 2002 Veränderung
gg. VJ in vH
Index des
Auftragseingangs*
Insgesamt 62,8 0,0

Hochbau 59,3 + 2,4

Tiefbau 68,6 - 3,4

Beschäftigte (Tsd) 849 - 7,8

Geleistete Arbeitsstunden 58,4 - 13,2
(in Mio. Stunden)

Gesamtumsatz 8226 - 9,3
(in Mio. Euro)
darunter:
Baugewerblicher Umsatz 8130 - 9,2
(in Mio. Euro)

JAN-DEZ Veränderung
2002 gg. VJ in vH
Index des
Auftragseingangs*
Insgesamt 70,0 - 5,9

Hochbau 60,0 - 11,5

Tiefbau 86,6 + 1,5

Beschäftigte (Tsd)** 880 - 7,8

Geleistete Arbeitsstunden 1019,4 - 9,3
(in Mio. Stunden)

Gesamtumsatz 87.171 - 5,9
(in Mio. Euro)
darunter:
Baugewerblicher Umsatz 85.977 - 5,9
(in Mio. Euro)

NOTE - Einschließlich vorbereitender Baustellenarbeiten.
* Betriebe von Unternehmen mit 20 und mehr Beschäftigten;
preisbereinigte Angaben.
** Durchschnitt errechnet aus Monatsangaben.

==> Unschwer zu erkennen die Zahlen sind schlecht.

TotalFinaElf/2002 - Jahresgewinn fällt um 22% auf 5,941 Mrd …

==> Bin mir nicht ganz sicher bei den Zahlen, aber sie erscheinen mir über den Erwartungen.

Italien Industrieaufträge Dezember -0,9% gg Vm, +3,0% gg Vj
…
=> So schlecht sieht es in Italien gar nicht aus, bis auf einen leichten Abfall der Industrieaufträge, der sich aber im Jahresvergleich noch ganz gut macht.
Kein up oder Down wegen gegensätzlicher News für Italien.

UK Jan retail sales -1.0 pct m/m
LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) -…

=> Unter den Erwartungen:

UK CBI industrial trends survey--Feb
LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuter…

=> Auf der ganzen Linie enttäuschend, will halt keiner was mit den Kriegszündlern zu tun haben. Ich denke das schadet den Britten sehr.

US Posts $44.24B Dec Trade Deficit; Consensus $38.50B

US T…

=> Wenn man das sieht, dann kann man den Dollar auch noch schwächer werden sehen.

Table Of US Goods, Services Trade Balance Data

…

==> Aus der Sicht des Europaraums sehen die Zahlen gar nicht so schlecht für die Kapitalströme nach Europa aus. Auch sieht man das die USA Saudi-Arabien derzeit die Füße küssen. Wird nicht schwer zu erraten sein warum. Ich sage nur am 3.3. ist Neumond.

Sonst ist aber immerhin eine leicht Zunahme des Handelsaufkommens zu erkennen. Schön wäre es, wenn es dabei auch bleibt. Wie bei Großbritannien ist gut zu erkennen, das von dem Kriegswollenden Parteien, so auch von den USA, weniger Exportiert wird. Die Zahlen waren für die USA:

US Jobless Claims +21K To 402K Feb 15 Week; Survey +6K

US Jobless Claims: At Highest Level Since December 28

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The number of U.S. workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits surged to a seven-week high last week, suggesting the ailing labor market relapsed after several weeks of improvement.

Initial jobless claims rose by a larger-than-expected 21,000 to 402,000 in the week that ended Feb. 15, the Labor Department said Thursday. The increase was the first in three weeks and it raised the total above the 400,000 mark that economists say correlates with a rising unemployment rate. The four-week moving average, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, rose by 4,750 to 394,750.

Wall Street expected a smaller increase. A consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had called for a gain of just 6,000 claims. A Labor Department spokesman said the numbers should be regarded with caution because states had less time to report them because of the Presidents` Day holiday and the snowstorm along the East Coast over the weekend.

About 2 million Americans have lost their jobs since the economy slipped into a recession in 2001. The economy grew just 0.7% in the last three months of 2002, but it had recently started to show signs of improvement. The unemployment rate fell three tenths of a percentage point to 5.7% in January as employers added 143,000 jobs.

The Labor Department`s latest jobless-claims data indicated weakness on several fronts. The number of workers drawing unemployment benefits for more than a week increased for the first time in a month in the week that ended Feb. 8, the latest period for which the number is available. Continuing claims rose by 147,000 to 3,444,000 in that week. The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance rose a tenth of a percentage point to 2.7%

In all, 24 states and territories reported a increase in unadjusted initial claims for the week of Feb. 8, the latest week for which detailed state information is available. Twenty-nine reported a decrease.

Texas reported the biggest increase, a gain of 3,940 claims that it attributed to layoffs in the information, mining and manufacturing industries. North Carolina reported the biggest decrease, saying claims declined by 5,836 because of fewer layoffs in the construction and furniture industries.

The Labor Department revised its preliminary estimate of initial claims for the week of Feb. 8, raising it by 4,000 to 381,000. The department routinely revises its initial estimates.

=> Die Zahlen waren schlechter als die Erwartungen, aber immer noch im Rahmen dessen, das ein Turnaround noch erfolgen kann. Aber dafür gibt es dennoch ein:

(Auch wenn der 4 Wochen Durchschnitt noch unter den besagten magischen 400.000 liegt.)

But in its report Thursday, the Labor Department said prices increased in a broad variety of categories. Energy prices, which account for 14% of the Producer Price Index, rose 4.8%, marking the biggest increase since June 2000. Gasoline prices rose 13.7%, the biggest increase in three months.

Food prices, which account for 22% of the index, rose 1.6%, the biggest increase in six-and-a-half years. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.7%, marking the first increase in months. Passenger-car prices rose 3.5%, the biggest gain since October 1986. But computer prices continued to decline, falling 0.8%.

Inflationary pressures intensified further up the production pipeline. Prices of crude, or unprocessed goods, rose 6.9%, marking the biggest increase in a year. Prices of intermediate goods rose 1.3%, the biggest increase in more than 12 years." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US Jan Producer Prices +1.6; Consensus +0.5%

US Jan PPI Sh…

=> Tja die Ölpreise sind daran wohl Schlud, das sollte keinen Wunders. Sowas ist schlecht für die Wirtschaft, im Normalfall. Die USA sind aber derzeit wohl ganz froh etwas Inflation zu haben, bei dem Handelsdefizit erst recht. Daher hier nur ein leichtes:

The DJ-BTM barometer is a weighted 10-component index designed as a coincident measure of overall economic activity.

Of the 10 components, four increased and six decreased in the latest week. On an unweighted, but seasonally adjusted basis, truck production and steel production each rose by 1.3%, marking for the largest increases, while the Mortgage Bankers Association`s purchase index fell by 11.4%, marking the largest decrease.

The DJ-BTM barometer includes four components from the goods-producing sectors - steel, lumber, auto and truck production - as well as electricity output, a measure of utility production, and coal production, a proxy for the mining industry. The financial sector is represented by the Mortgage Bankers Association`s purchase index, while the services sector is covered by measures of inflation-adjusted chain-store sales and by box-office receipts, as well as by freight-car loadings, which are also an early indicator of goods orders.

A separate DJ-BTM index of production trends, which is drawn from the six production-related components and is statistically indexed to the Federal Reserve`s industrial-production index, fell by 1.1% in the latest week after rising by 0.6% in the prior week." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">DJ-BTM Business Barometer Down 0.1% in Feb 8 Week

DJ-BTM/…

The report comes amid other data that have painted a decidedly mixed picture of the U.S. economy`s performance. Recent releases have suggested the beleaguered factory sector is starting to recover from its extended downturn, but other news has been less favorable.

Indeed, the government reported earlier Thursday that the trade deficit for December stood at a record $44.24 billion, and that robust appetite for imports will weaken fourth-quarter growth levels from their already tepid levels.

The Conference Board said five out of the 10 indicators comprising the leading indicator index rose in January. The largest positive contributors were lower weekly unemployment insurance claims and growth in the money supply. The most significant negative contributor was consumers` confidence in the economy.

The Conference Board said that its composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.2% in January to 115.5, from the flat performance reported the month before.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the composite index of lagging indicators decreased 0.1% to 99.2 in January, after the 0.3% decline seen the month before.

The Conference Board is a nonprofit research and business-membership group that computes the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US Conference Board January Leading Index Unchanged

US Conference Board/Index: January Ends 3 Mos Of Gains

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A gauge of future U.S. economic activity stalled for the first time in three months in January, the Conference Board reported Thursday.

The group said that its composite index of leading indicators was unchanged at a reading of 111.2 in January, after the upwardly revised 0.2% gain seen in December.

The index was equal to 100 in 1996. The January reading fell short of economists` expectations that it would rise by 0.1%.

"Despite no change in January, the recent positive trend in the leading economic indicators suggests that U.S. economic growth could advance soon," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said in a press release.

The report comes amid other data that have painted a decidedly mixed picture of the U.S. economy`s performance. Recent releases have suggested the beleaguered factory sector is starting to recover from its extended downturn, but other news has been less favorable.

Indeed, the government reported earlier Thursday that the trade deficit for December stood at a record $44.24 billion, and that robust appetite for imports will weaken fourth-quarter growth levels from their already tepid levels.

The Conference Board said five out of the 10 indicators comprising the leading indicator index rose in January. The largest positive contributors were lower weekly unemployment insurance claims and growth in the money supply. The most significant negative contributor was consumers` confidence in the economy.

The Conference Board said that its composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.2% in January to 115.5, from the flat performance reported the month before.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the composite index of lagging indicators decreased 0.1% to 99.2 in January, after the 0.3% decline seen the month before.

The Conference Board is a nonprofit research and business-membership group that computes the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

=> Das ist mal eine gute News, da es nicht unter den Erwartungen war. Zu diesen Zeitpunkt waren die Indizes durch viele schlechte News wohl dann schon etwas zu viel gefallen:

Philadelphia Fed Survey Indicates Manufacturing Activity Nearly Flat

PHILADELPHIA, Feb. 20 / The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today issued the following:

Activity in the region`s manufacturing sector was mostly flat, according to firms surveyed for this month`s Business Outlook Survey. Although one- third of firms reported higher new orders in February, one-fifth reported lower orders, and other indicators suggest no improvement this month. Expectations for growth diminished again in February, although manufacturing executives still expect conditions to improve over the next six months.

Current Indicators Fall

The diffusion index of current activity declined from 11.2 in January to 2.3 this month (see Chart). Only slightly more firms reported increases in activity this month (22 percent) than reported decreases (20 percent). The shipments index fell significantly this month: from 21.3 in January to zero. New orders, which have shown improvement over the past three months, continued to grow in February. The current new orders index decreased only slightly from 17.3 to 14.1. Nearly 34 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month, but 19 percent reported declines. Firms report lower inventories again this month: the inventory index remained negative but improved slightly from -17.3 to -15.7. The unfilled orders index remained negative at -9.1, slightly down from its reading of -1.5 in the previous month. The index for delivery times also fell, from -7.3 to -15.5.

Overall employment in the manufacturing sector was steady this month. Seventy percent of firms reported steady employment levels in February, and the percentage of firms reporting declines in employment (15 percent) only slightly exceeded the percentage reporting increases (14 percent). The current employment index remained negative but improved from -6.1 in January to -0.9. However, the index of average hours worked declined this month, from 3.8 in January to -5.1.

Prices of Manufactured Goods Remain Steady

Firms participating in the survey held prices of their goods mostly steady this month, despite higher costs noted by some firms. Three-fourths of firms reported no change in prices of their own manufactured goods, and the percentage reporting higher prices (12 percent) is nearly offset by the percentage reporting lower prices (10 percent). The prices received index declined from 6.3 in January to 2.2 this month.

Despite relatively steady prices received for their own products, many firms continued to report higher costs. The percentage of firms that reported paying higher input prices (21 percent) outpaced the percentage that reported paying lower prices (4 percent). The prices paid index remained positive for the 12th consecutive month, increasing from 11.6 in January to 16.2 this month. Still, the largest percentage of firms (75 percent) reported steady input prices this month. However, there was a notable rise in firms` expectations about price increases over the next six months. The future prices paid index jumped from 11.9 in January to 35.5 this month, although the future prices received index increased modestly from 3.4 in January to 4.9.

Manufacturing Outlook Moderates Again This Month

Although manufacturers still expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, they have generally grown much less optimistic. The percentage of firms expecting growth over the next six months (45 percent) tops the percentage of firms expecting declines (20 percent). Nevertheless, the future activity index, which was 52.2 in December, declined again, from 32.6 in January to 24.7 (see Chart). Indicators of expected new orders and shipments also declined this month: the future new orders index fell from 35.7 to 29.2, and the future shipments index fell slightly from 32.6 to 28.5. On balance, firms expect unfilled orders and delivery times to remain near their current levels. Over the next six months, 25 percent of firms anticipate lower levels of inventories and 21 percent expect higher.

Two areas in which firms` expectations improved this month were employment and capital spending. The future employment index increased from 5.4 in January to 16.0, with only 28 percent expecting to increase their payrolls and 12 percent expecting to decrease them over the next six months. Nearly 24 percent of the manufacturers report that they will increase capital spending over the next six months, but 11 percent expect spending to decline. The index for future capital spending improved marginally from 9.5 in January to 12.9 this month.

Special questions this month asked firms about the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on their hiring and capital spending plans for 2003 (see Special Questions). The firms` responses suggest that both hiring and capital spending are being adversely affected by these uncertainties but lack of demand is also an important factor. The largest percentage of firms (58 percent) indicated that a lack of demand was holding back hiring and spending plans this year, while 40 percent cited geopolitical uncertainties. Of those that cited geopolitical uncertainties as an influence, 12 percent indicated such uncertainties are having significantly negative effects on their hiring plans, and 36 percent indicated significantly negative effects on capital spending plans. Moreover, 40 percent or more of firms report they do not plan to increase hiring and capital spending within the first six months, if at all, after the resolution of geopolitical uncertainties.

Summary

Overall manufacturing conditions in the region are mostly steady this month, and indicators for general activity, shipments, and employment suggest no growth. Manufacturers` own prices remain steady despite about one-fifth of the firms reporting increases in input prices. Firms` expectations for the next six months deteriorated again this month, although firms expecting improvement outnumbered those expecting declines by slightly more than 2 to 1.

Special Question (February 2003)
Are your hiring and spending plans in 2003 being adversely affected by:
Lack of Demand 58%
Geopolitical Uncertainties 40%
Other 9%
Not Affected 26%
(Numbers do not add to 100 because firms could indicate more than one factor.)

If geopolitical uncertainties are having an impact on your hiring and capital spending for 2003, are the impacts:

Hiring Capital Spending
Significantly Negative 12% 36%
Slightly Negative 79% 58%
Slightly Positive 6% 3%
Significantly Positive 3% 3%
Once geopolitical uncertainties are resolved, how soon will your hiring and spending increase:

Hiring Capital Spending
Immediately 10% 8%
Within 3 months 28% 24%
Within 6 months 21% 21%
After 6 months 13% 21%
No changes planned 28% 26%
BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY
Summary of Returns
February 2003
February vs. January Six Months from Now vs. February
De- No In- Diff- De- No In- Diff-
crease Change crease usion crease Change crease usion
Index Index
What is your
evaluation
of
the level
of general
business
activity? 20.0 57.7 22.3 2.3 20.1 25.2 44.9 24.7
Company Business
Indicators
New Orders 19.4 47.0 33.6 14.1 20.4 26.1 49.6 29.2
Shipments 26.3 45.9 26.3 0.0 20.0 22.0 48.5 28.5
Unfilled
Orders 20.3 64.8 11.2 -9.1 14.8 59.4 14.9 0.1
Delivery
Times 21.1 72.5 5.6 -15.5 14.4 65.0 10.9 -3.5
Invent-
ories 32.3 50.8 16.6 -15.7 24.8 44.8 21.0 -3.8
Prices
Paid 4.3 75.2 20.5 16.2 5.3 47.5 40.8 35.5
Prices
Received 9.6 75.1 11.8 2.2 9.7 67.3 14.6 4.9
Number of
Employees 15.3 70.2 14.4 -0.9 12.1 54.6 28.1 16.0
Average
Employee
Workweek 19.7 63.4 14.6 -5.1 14.7 57.5 21.5 6.8
Capital
Expendi-
tures -- 10.6 44.9 23.6 12.9
Notes:
(1) Items may not add up to 100 percent because of omission of
respondents.
(2) All data seasonally adjusted.
(3) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage indicating an increase
minus the percentage indicating a decrease.
Survey results reflect data received through February 14, 2003.

=> Hier ist es mal ganz interessant sich die einzelnen Komponenten anzusehen. Die Unternehmen sind zwar für die Zukunft nun noch ganz gut gestimmt, aber nicht mehr so Euphorisch wie im Vormonat. Ein leichter Dämpfer auf eine an sich noch positive News.

schrieb am 22.02.03 13:39:40

Beitrag Nr. 199 ()

Freitag 21.2.2003:

KLEINER VERFALLSTAG (EUREX: 12:00 STOXX, 13:00 DAX-Optionen, 19:00 Renten, 20:00 Aktienoptionen auf D und US Werte)

00:50 J: All-Indurstires Index Dez zR -0,8% m/m
00:50 J: Tertiary Index Dez zR -0,7% m/m
08:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Insolvenzen November 2002
08:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Einfuhren von Wein 2001
08:00 D: Statistisches Bundesamt - Inlandstourismus Dezember 2002
08:45 F: privater Verbrauch
08:50 F: BIP Q4 (vorläufig)
09:00 I: Handlesbilanz Dezember
14:30 USA: CPI Jan z +0,1% C +0,3% A +0,3%
14:30 USA: CPI Core Jan z +0,1 C +0,2 A +0,2
14:30 USA: Realeinkommen Januar

10:00 ThyssenKrupp AG, HV

Frankreich BIP 4. Quartal vorl. +0,2% gg Vq, 1,2% gg Vjq

=> Kaum noch ein Wachstum in Frankreich, real ist es auf jeden Fall keines mehr.

Italien:
Export Dezember 20,6 Mrd. EUR
Import Dezember 20,5…

=> Ganz knapp positiv.

In its report Friday, the Labor Department attributed the acceleration in consumer prices last month mainly to energy prices, which account for 6 percent of the index. Those prices rose 4%, the biggest increase since April. Fuel-oil prices rose 8.6% and gasoline prices rose 6.6%, marking the biggest increases in nine months.
Housing prices, which account for 40% of the index, grew 0.4% - twice the rate in December. Transportation prices, which account for 18% of the index, rose 1.1% after a 0.3% decline in December. Medical-care prices rose 0.1%, marking the smallest increase in five years.
But food prices, which account for 15% of the index, declined 0.2%, marking the biggest drop in nearly six years. Passenger-car prices fell 0.9%, the biggest decline in nearly a year. Prices of airline fares fell 0.6%, the biggest drop since November.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said average weekly earnings of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation, were unchanged in January as a 0.3% increase in average weekly hours was offset by a 0.3% increase in the CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Average hourly earnings were unchanged.
-By Joseph Rebello and Phil

Table Of Selected Price Data From U.S. CPI Report

Summary Of U.S. Consumer Price Data From Labor Dept.

%Change Annual
Change From Prior Month On Year Rate Weight
Jan. Dec. Nov. Jan. Jan.*
CPI All Items 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% 2.2% 100.0%
CPI Except Food,
Energy 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 1.5% 78.7%
Food & Beverages -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6%
Housing 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.6% 2.9% 40.9%
Apparel -0.9% -0.2% -0.2% -1.9% -5.4% 4.2%
Transportation 1.1% -0.3% -0.2% 4.6% 2.6% 17.3%
Medical 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 4.6% 4.1% 6.0%
Recreation 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.5% 5.9%
Education &
Communication 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% 2.6% 5.8%
Other 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.2% 1.5% 4.4%
Special Indexes
Energy 4.0% -0.4% -0.5% 14.1% 12.9% 6.7%
Unadjusted Indexes Jan. Dec. Nov.
CPI All Items 181.7 180.9 181.3
Unadjusted Indexes
CPI Except Food 182.4 181.6 182.1
CPI Except Energy 189.0 188.6 188.9
CPI Except Food,
Energy 191.8 191.4 191.8
Energy 127.5 123.3 125.3
Food & Beverages 178.1 177.8 177.4
(Data are for All Urban Consumers. *Annual Rate data is
for the quarter ended in the most recent month reported.)
Source: Labor Department

Table Of Selected Price Data From U.S. CPI Report

Change On Month Year Ago
Jan. Dec. Nov. Jan. 02
All items 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6%

Food and beverages -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1%
Food -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0%
Food at home -0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Cereals & bakery products 1.0% -0.6% 0.1% 1.6%
Meats, poultry, fish, & eggs -0.3% 0.3% 0.6% -0.3%
Dairy & related products -0.5% 0.1% 0.4% -2.1%
Fruits & vegetables -1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Nonalcoholic beverages -0.5% 1.0% -0.7% 0.8%
Other food at home 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Sugar & sweets -0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5%
Fats & oils 1.0% 0.1% -0.6% -1.6%
Other foods -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Other miscellaneous foods -0.5% -0.1% 0.5% 0.7%
Food away from home -0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0%
Other food away from home 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 3.8%
Alcoholic beverages 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 2.2%

Housing 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.6%
Shelter 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 3.1%
Rent of primary residence 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 3.2%
Lodging away from home 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1%
Equivalent rent
of primary residence 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 3.3%
Household insurance 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% 7.0%
Fuels & utilities 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 3.3%
Fuels 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 3.4%
Fuel oil & other fuels 7.1% 1.0% 0.7% 21.0%
Gas 1.5% 0.5% -0.1% 2.4%
Household furnishings 0.2% -0.3% -0.2% -1.0%

Apparel -0.9% -0.2% -0.2% -1.9%
Men`s & boys` apparel -1.3% -0.6% 0.1% -3.9%
Women`s & girls` apparel -1.2% -0.3% -0.4% -1.9%
Infants` & toddlers` apparel -3.0% -0.2% -0.2% -3.1%
Footwear 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2%

Transportation 1.1% -0.3% -0.2% 4.6%
Private transportation 1.2% -0.3% -0.3% 5.1%
New & used motor vehicles -0.5% -0.3% -0.5% -2.8%
New vehicles -0.9% -0.2% -0.1% -2.1%
Used cars & trucks 0.2% -0.1% -1.3% -4.7%
Motor fuel 6.6% -1.4% -1.0% 29.0%
Gasoline 6.6% -1.4% -1.0% 29.3%
Motor vehicle parts & equip. 0.7% -0.2% 0.3% 1.5%
Motor vehicle maint. & repair 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 3.5%
Public transportation -0.6% 0.4% 0.5% -1.7%

Medical care 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 4.6%
Medical care commodities 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 3.0%
Medical care services 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 5.1%
Professional services 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.9%
Hospital & related services 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 9.2%

Recreation 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1%
Video & audio -0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3%
Education & communication 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3%
Education 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 6.5%
Educational books & supplies 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 8.7%
Tuition, other school fees
and childcare 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 6.3%
Communication 0.2% 0.0% -0.4% -1.5%
Information & info. processing 0.3% 0.0% -0.4% -2.1%
Telephone services 0.5% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1%
Information & information processing
except phone services -0.6% -0.6% -2.3% -11.9%
Personal computers
& peripheral equipment -1.0% -1.5% -3.4% -20.7%

Other goods & services 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.2%
Tobacco & smoking products 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 9.1%
Personal care 0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 1.6%
Personal care products -0.3% -0.5% -0.3% -1.4%
Personal care services 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 2.3%
Miscellaneous personal services 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 2.8%
Commodity & service group
Commodities 0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 1.5%
Food & beverages -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1%
Commodities less food & beverages 0.7% -0.4% -0.4% 1.7%
Nondurables less food & beverages 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 5.9%
Apparel -0.9% -0.2% -0.2% -1.9%
Nondurables except food
beverages, apparel 1.6% -0.7% -0.2% 9.7%
Durables -0.2% -0.4% -0.4% -3.0%
Services 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 3.3%
Rent of shelter 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 3.1%
Transportation services 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.5%
Other services 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 3.5%
Special indexes
All items less food 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 2.8%
All items less shelter 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3%
All items less medical care 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4%
Commodities less food 0.7% -0.4% -0.4% 1.7%
Nondurables less food 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 5.6%
Nondurables less food & apparel 1.6% -0.4% -0.4% 8.9%
Nondurables 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 3.3%
Services less rent of shelter 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3.6%
Services less medical care services 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 3.2%
Energy 4.0% -0.4% -0.5% 14.1%
All items less energy 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8%
All items less food & energy 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9%
Commodities except food
and energy commodities -0.3% -0.1% -0.3% -1.4%
Energy commodities 6.6% -1.2% -0.9% 28.4%
Services less energy services 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3.4%" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US Jan CPI Data Help Dispel Inflation Fears
US January Cons…

=> Kleider und Essen wurde billiger, Energie teuerer. Wundert wohl keinen. Immerhin eine Inflation und somit auch keine großen Deflationssorgen aktuell. Die Entwicklung erscheint halbwegs gesund über alles zu sein. Bzw. den Umständen entsprechend. Positive News aus meiner Sicht.

Table of Data On US Real Earnings From Labor Dept.

…

=> Die Realeinkommen sind unverändert, die Arbeitsstunden haben etwas zugenommen, und es wird mehr Geld umgestezt. In Konstanten Dollars keine Nenneswerte Veränderung. Aus meiner Sicht gute Nachrichten.

schrieb am 22.02.03 13:40:52

Beitrag Nr. 200 ()

schrieb am 22.02.03 23:35:01

Beitrag Nr. 201 ()

Hier noch ein paar Originalquellen:

Vergleichbar mit dem Vorjahr sind jedoch die Insolvenzen von Kapital- und Personengesellschaften; sie stiegen im November 2002 um rund 18% gegenüber November 2001 auf 2064 Fälle.

Von Januar bis November 2002 wurden 77652 Insolvenzen gemeldet, darunter 34645 von Unternehmen und 19553 von Verbrauchern. Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften stieg um 12,9% auf 22144. Die Gerichte bezifferten die offenen Forderungen der Gläubiger in den ersten elf Monaten des Jahres 2002 auf 58,5 Mrd. Euro.

Insolvenzen in Deutschland

November 2002 / Januar bis November 2002

Insgesamt 7723 / 77652
Unternehmen 3266 / 34645
Übrige Schuldner 4457 / 43007
-davon:
– Verbraucher 2159 / 19553
– natürliche Personen als Gesellschafter 355 / 6081
– ehemals selbstständig Tätige 1728 / 15203
– Nachlässe 215 / 2170" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Statistisches Bundesamt

Pressemitteilung vom 21. Februar 2003

Insolvenzen im November 2002

WIESBADEN – In Deutschland wurden im November 2002 7723 Insolvenzen verzeichnet. Nach Miteilung des Statistischen Bundesamtes entfielen davon 3266 auf Unternehmen einschließlich Kleinunternehmen und 4457 auf andere Schuldner. Zu letzteren zählen insbesondere Verbraucher (2159), natürliche Personen, die beispielsweise als Gesellschafter beteiligt waren (355), ehemals selbstständig Tätige (1728) und Nachlassinsolvenzen (215).

Ein sinnvoller Vergleich mit den Vorjahreszahlen ist nach wie vor nicht möglich, weil in Folge der jüngsten Reform des Insolvenzrechts ab 1. Dezember 2001 erheblich mehr Insolvenzverfahren eröffnet wurden. Jetzt können natürliche Personen auch dann ein Insolvenzverfahren beantragen, wenn sie mittellos sind, da ihnen die Verfahrenskosten gestundet werden können. Die Eröffnung eines Insolvenzverfahrens ist Voraussetzung, um – nach einer sechsjährigen "Wohlverhaltensphase" – die Befreiung von den restlichen Schulden zu erlangen. Diese Erleichterung gilt nicht nur für Verbraucher, sondern auch für ehemals selbstständig Tätige und für Kleinunternehmer. Daher sind die Insolvenzverfahren für Unternehmen insgesamt nicht mit den Vorjahreszahlen vergleichbar. Vergleichbar mit dem Vorjahr sind jedoch die Insolvenzen von Kapital- und Personengesellschaften; sie stiegen im November 2002 um rund 18% gegenüber November 2001 auf 2064 Fälle.

Von Januar bis November 2002 wurden 77652 Insolvenzen gemeldet, darunter 34645 von Unternehmen und 19553 von Verbrauchern. Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften stieg um 12,9% auf 22144. Die Gerichte bezifferten die offenen Forderungen der Gläubiger in den ersten elf Monaten des Jahres 2002 auf 58,5 Mrd. Euro.

Insolvenzen in Deutschland

November 2002 / Januar bis November 2002

Insgesamt 7723 / 77652
Unternehmen 3266 / 34645
Übrige Schuldner 4457 / 43007
-davon:
– Verbraucher 2159 / 19553
– natürliche Personen als Gesellschafter 355 / 6081
– ehemals selbstständig Tätige 1728 / 15203
– Nachlässe 215 / 2170

==> Die Schröder Regierung läßt wirklich nichts unversucht die derzeitige Misere auch noch zusätzlich zu verscheiern.

Statistisches Bundesamt

Pressemitteilung vom 21. Februar …

==> Hamburg schlägt hier wohl alle anderen Bundesländer um Längen.

Die Statistik zum Wein laß ich mal weg, hier sind es eh die 2001 Zahlen nur. Interessant ist es das Chile so zugelegt hat, als Land aus dem wir Wein einführen. Nur um mal eine Größenordung zu bekommen hier mal die Weineinführen in Millionen Liter:

Weineinfuhr insgesamt 1 173,8

Italien 479,4
Frankreich 265,4
Spanien 157,8
Ehem. jugoslawische Republik Mazedonien 46,1
Chile 33,1
USA 25,1
Griechenland 23,6
Österreich 23,4
Bulgarien 20,1
Rumänien 19,8

Chile und Rumänien haben etwa 50% gegenüber dem Vorjahr zugelegt.

schrieb am 23.02.03 11:35:02

Beitrag Nr. 202 ()

on between the Iraqi athorities and the inspection teams," Iraqi
Foreign Minister Naji Sabri told reporters on Saturday on the
sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in the Malaysian
capital, Kuala Lumpur.
"We think all pending issues can be solved beteen the two
parties without any pressure being exacted on them by certain
powers," he said in his first reaction to the Blix deadline.
Sabri declined to comment in any detail after Blix ordered
Iraq on Friday to begin destroying by March 1 dozens of missiles
and warheads, their engines and launchers. It is a key test of
Iraq`s willingness to comply with U.N. disarmament demands.
If it does not destroy them, the United States and Britain
could use this as proof that Iraq is not cooperating with the
United Nations and that war is justified.
"The appropriate arrangements should be made so that the
destruction process can commence by March 1, 2003," Blix said in
a four-page letter to Amir al-Saadi, a senior adviser to
President Saddam Hussein.
The letter, distributed to Security Council members, said an
expert panel Blix organised had concluded that the Al-Samoud 2
missiles exceeded by 33 km (20 miles) the 150-km (90-mile) range
limit set by the U.N. Security Council in a 1991 resolution.
Sabri said he expected to win widespread support from among
the 113 other members of the Non-Aligned Movement, which also
includes Iran and North Korea -- the two other nations bracketed
with Iraq by U.S. President George W. Bush as an "axis of evil".
"We expect a strong position rejecting colonial war policies
by Washington and calling for peace," Sabri said.
Blix did not say how long Iraq could have to destroy the
equipment. But the deadline Blix gave would allow him to tell the
Security Council in a written report due on March 1 whether Iraq
had complied.
Baghdad`s response will have an impact on a resolution the
United States and Britain are seeking to authorise military
action against Iraq." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Iraq replies on missiles,says to be solved with UN

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Iraq avoided a direct
response to an order from chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix
to begin destroying missiles by March 1, saying all such issues
could be resolved as part of ongoing cooperation.
Destruction of the Al-Samoud 2 missiles, which have a range
that exceeds U.N. limits, would be a blow to Iraq as it prepares
for a possible invasion by U.S. forces.
"First of all, cooperation is going on and contacts are going
on between the Iraqi athorities and the inspection teams," Iraqi
Foreign Minister Naji Sabri told reporters on Saturday on the
sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in the Malaysian
capital, Kuala Lumpur.
"We think all pending issues can be solved beteen the two
parties without any pressure being exacted on them by certain
powers," he said in his first reaction to the Blix deadline.
Sabri declined to comment in any detail after Blix ordered
Iraq on Friday to begin destroying by March 1 dozens of missiles
and warheads, their engines and launchers. It is a key test of
Iraq`s willingness to comply with U.N. disarmament demands.
If it does not destroy them, the United States and Britain
could use this as proof that Iraq is not cooperating with the
United Nations and that war is justified.
"The appropriate arrangements should be made so that the
destruction process can commence by March 1, 2003," Blix said in
a four-page letter to Amir al-Saadi, a senior adviser to
President Saddam Hussein.
The letter, distributed to Security Council members, said an
expert panel Blix organised had concluded that the Al-Samoud 2
missiles exceeded by 33 km (20 miles) the 150-km (90-mile) range
limit set by the U.N. Security Council in a 1991 resolution.
Sabri said he expected to win widespread support from among
the 113 other members of the Non-Aligned Movement, which also
includes Iran and North Korea -- the two other nations bracketed
with Iraq by U.S. President George W. Bush as an "axis of evil".
"We expect a strong position rejecting colonial war policies
by Washington and calling for peace," Sabri said.
Blix did not say how long Iraq could have to destroy the
equipment. But the deadline Blix gave would allow him to tell the
Security Council in a written report due on March 1 whether Iraq
had complied.
Baghdad`s response will have an impact on a resolution the
United States and Britain are seeking to authorise military
action against Iraq.

Also am 1.3.2003 ist die neue Deadline und am 3.3.2003 um 2:36 ist Neumond.

Wir erinnern uns an den Januar 1991 zurück, hier lief das Ultimatum Kuwait zu verlassen bis zum 15.1.1991. In der Nacht vom 15.1. zum 16.1. war dann Neumond (Maximum). Eine Nacht später am 17.1.1991 um 0:38 Uhr wurde Baghdad bombardiert (17.1.1991 2:38 a.m. Ortszeit Bagdad). Das war also exact zum dunkelsten Zeitpunkt in dieser Nacht, nur war es genau genommen einen Tag nach Neumond.

Vielleicht will man dieses Mal nicht wieder den Fehler, den besten Angriffszeitpunkt um eine Nacht zu verpassen. Daher hat man dieses Mal das Ulitmatum nicht nur 12 Stunden vor dem Neumond ablaufen lassen, sondern 36 Stunden vorher. Somit steht noch etwas mehr Zeit zur Verfügung der Welt den Angriff mitzuteilen und sich eine Legitimation einzuholen.

schrieb am 23.02.03 21:07:49

Beitrag Nr. 203 ()

Hier wieder mal ein Fahrplan für die nächste Woche:

Montag: 24.2.03
08:00 DE-PPI
08:00 DE-Statistisches Bundesamt-Personalnebenkosten 2000 (nicht verlesen, die sind etwas hinterher.)
EU: Eurostat - Kapitaisierung der Börsenmärkte
10:00 EU-EZB: Euro area balance of payments December 2002 http://www.ecb.int/
15:00 EU-EZB: EU banking sector stability - Report http://www.ecb.int/
16:00 US-Phil Fed Qtly Survey Q1 R +1.3 pct
20:00 US-Finanzhaushaltssaldo Jan zR 43,73 Mrd.USD R 12,52 Mrd.USD C 10,0 Mrd.USD A 10,0 Mrd.USD CBS 10,0 Mrd.USD

10:30 Allianz Leben mit vorläufigen Zahlen zum Geschäftsjahr 2002
Axel Springer Verlag Jahreszahlen (vorläufig)

Dienstag: 25.2.03
00:50 JP-PPI
04:40 JP-Notenbank-Gouverneurs Masaru Hayami zum Thema "Japans Wirtschaft und ihre Aufgaben"
08:00 DE-Außenhandelspreise
08:45 F-Wohnungsbaubeginne Jan
08:50 F-CPI (endgültig)
10:00 D-Ifo Geschäftsklimaindex
10:00 I-Geschäftsklimaindex
12:00 EU-Eurostat Einzelhandelsumsätze für EU Länder Dez 2002
13:45 US-BTM-UBSW Sales Index For Feb 22 Wk zR -0.1%
14:55 US-Redbook Retail Sales Index For Feb 22 Wk zR -1.2%
15:00 EU-EZB: Consolidated Financial Statement of the Eurosystem http://www.ecb.int/
16:00 US-January Existing Home Sales Jan zR 5,86 Mio. R 5,80 Mio. A 5,70 Mio. CBS 5,79 Mio.
16:00 US-Feb Conference Board Consumer Confidence Feb zR 79,0 zB 79 R 76,8 A 76,5 C 77,0 CBS 76,8
17:00 US ISI Co. Index Wk 21.Feb zR 42,7
00:30 (26.2.) ABC/ Money Cons Conf Wk 23.Feb zR -21

10:00 Fresienus Medical Care: Q4 PK AK (2002 Zahlen vorläufig) R 688 EBIT
10:00 Audi AG PK
Infineon: AK
12:00 Credit Suisse: Q4
Home Depot: Q4 EPS: zR 0,30 R 0,27 Z 0,28 (Before Open)
Hewlett-Packard: Q1 EPS: zZ 0,29 zR 0,23 R 0,27 Z 0,27 (After Close)
Lycos: Q4
France Telecom: HV

11:00 PK Deutsches Baugewerbe Aussichten 2003

FMC Q4 EBIT seen $178 mln
FRANKFURT, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Ger…

Mittwoch: 26.2.03

0:50 JP-Einzelhandelsumsätze Jan (pelim.)
08:00 DE-Konsumentenpreisindex (final) Jan bis Jan PK dazu um 10:30
08:00 DE-GDP Q4
09:00 I-Einzelhandelsumsätze Dez
10:30 GB-GDP Q4
13:00 US-Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index Wk 21.Feb zR 1082,8
------Refinancing Index zR 5438,1
15:30 US-Rede von Notenbankchef Greenspan

Linde: Q4 Prelim.
Roche: Q4 AK

Linde 2002 core profit seen at 674 mln euros
FRANKFURT, Feb…

Donnerstag: 27.2.03

08:00 DE-GfK-Konsumklimaindikator März
08:45 F-PPI
09:00 I-Handelsbilanz mit nicht EU Staaten
10:00 EU: EZB Geldvolumen Eurozone, M1, M2, M3 - Jan 2003 http://www.ecb.int/
14:30 US-Initial Jobless Claims For Feb 22 Wk zR 402K R 386K C 392K A 370K
14:30 US-Jan Durable Goods Orders zB +0.2% zCBS -0,2% zR -0,2% (revised) R +1,2% C 1,0% A 1,0%
--------Ex-Transportation zR +1,1 %
--------Ex-Defense zR -0,7% (revised)
16:00 US-DJ-BTM Business Barometer For Feb 15 Wk zB -0.1%
16:00 US-Jan New Home Sales zR 1082K zR 1043K C 1045K A 1000K
16:00 US-Jan Help-Wanted Index zR 39 zCBS 39 CBS 40 C 40 A 40
16:00 US-Chi Fed Nat Act Index Jan zR -0,49
22:30 US-Money Supply (M2) wk 17 Feb zB 10,3 Mrd. USD

Air France: PK
AXA Groupe: Q4 PK AK
Nestle: Q4
Novell: Q1 EPS: zR 0,02
GAP: Q4 EPS: zR 0,04 R 0,27
11:30 Hewlett Packard Jahres PK
16:00 US-Greenspan redet über die Alterung der Bevölkerung und deren Einfluß auf die Wirtschaft

Freitag: 28.2.03

00:30 JP-Arbeitslosenzahlen R 5,5%
00:30 JP-CPI R 0,6% m/m 0,7% j/j
00:50 JP-Industrieproduktion (prelim.) R 1,4% m/m
08:00 DE-Großhandelsumsatz Jan
08:00 DE-Telefondienstleistungen Feb
08:45 F-Arbeitslosenzahlen Jan
10:00 I-GDP Q4 (pelim.)
11:00 Gesamtverband des Einzelhandels Jahres PK
12:00 EU-CPI (voräufig)
EU-Eurostat - Inflation (HVPI)
12:00 EU-GD Wirtschaft und Finanzen: Business and Consumer Survey
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/busines…
12:00 EU-GD Wirtschaft und Finanzen: Business climate indicator for the euro area
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/busines…
EU-Eurostat - Vorabschätzung Inflation der Eurozone
14:30 US-GDP Q4 (prelim.) zR +0.7% zCBS +0,7% R +1,0% CBS 1,0% C 1,1% A 0,7%
-----Implicit Defaltor zR +1,8% R +1,8% C 1,8% A 1,8%
-----Final Sales zR +1,3%
14:30 US-Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter
15:00 New York NAPM Feb zR 252,6
15:45 US-Feb Final U of Mich Consumer Sentiment Feb. zR 82.4 zCBS R 82,4 CBS 79,2 C 79,2 A 79,2
16:00 US-Feb Chicago PMI Feb zR 56.0 zCBS 56,0 R 53,0 CBS 54,8 C 52,6 A 51,0
16:30 ECRI Wk 21. Feb zR 119,5

Fiat: Q4 (prelim.) AK
Puma: Q4 PK
Schering: Q4 PK (16:00)

Ablauf für die Frist der Genehmigung des Telekom-Kabelverkaufs der Telekom.
VW Aufsichtsratsitzung

Legende:
DE=Deutschland
F=Frankreich
UK=Großbritannien
EU=Europa
JP=Japan
US=Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika

PPI=Produzentenpreisindex
CPI=Konsumentenpreisindex
PMI=Purchasing Manger Index
GDP=Gross domestic product=BIP=Bruttoinlandsprodukt

PK=Pressekonferenz
AK=Analystenkonferenz

CBS=CBS

Das Layout wurde ein wenig geändert, um nun auch Links in den Fahrplänen zu ermöglichen.

Ich wünsche allen eine schöne Woche und möchte anmerken, das dieses mal so einige Indikatoren divergieren. Wer sich also an den Terminmärkten tummelt muß sich wohl warm anziehen. Ich denke es wird nicht jede Reaktion diese Woche klar zu verstehen sein, wie es sonst meist der Fall ist. Bitte diese Woche Vorsicht walten lassen!!!

Allen gute Gewinne.

schrieb am 24.02.03 07:44:21

Beitrag Nr. 204 ()

Montag: 24.2.03
00:50 JP-Jan Trade Balance zDJ Y791Bln
00:50 JP-Jan Oil Imports zDJ +16% y/y
06:00 JP-Jan Chain Store Sales zDJ -4.2% y/y
06:30 JP-Jan Nationwide Dept Store Sales zDJ -4.9% y/y
08:00 DE-PPI
08:00 DE-Statistisches Bundesamt-Personalnebenkosten 2000 (nicht verlesen, die sind etwas hinterher.)
EU: Eurostat - Kapitaisierung der Börsenmärkte
10:00 EU-EZB: Euro area balance of payments December 2002 http://www.ecb.int/
15:00 EU-EZB: EU banking sector stability - Report http://www.ecb.int/
16:00 US-Phil Fed Qtly Survey Q1 R +1.3 pct
20:00 US-Finanzhaushaltssaldo Jan zR 43,73 Mrd.USD R 12,52 Mrd.USD C 10,0 Mrd.USD A 10,0 Mrd.USD CBS 10,0 Mrd.USD

10:30 Allianz Leben mit vorläufigen Zahlen zum Geschäftsjahr 2002
Axel Springer Verlag Jahreszahlen (vorläufig)

Japan Jan dept store sales down 1.6 pct yr/yr/
TOKYO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Sales at Japanese department stores
in January fell 1.6 percent from a year earlier to 690.3 billion
yen ($5.82 billion), marking the 10th straight month of decline,
the Japan Department Stores` Association said on Monday.
Department store and supermarket sales have been closely
watched as a key gauge of Japanese consumer spending, the largest
and one of the most stubbornly sluggish components of Japan`s
struggling economy.
The department store association said the slump in January
stemmed from a decline in sales to corporate clients.
Earlier, the Japan Chain Stores Association said supermarket
chain store sales fell 2.4 percent in January from a year earlier
to 1.26 trillion yen, down for the seventh straight month.
The chain store association attributed the decline in January
to a fall in sales of men`s clothes and home electronics.
Following is a breakdown of major sales at department stores
in January, with percentage change from a year earlier (in
billion yen):

Apparel 325.15 (-1.2)
Food 128.92 (-0.4)
The report is based on a survey of 289 stores operated by 102
companies.
($1=118.67 yen)

Japan January trade surplus down 42.8 pct yr/yr
TOKYO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Japan`s customs-cleared trade
surplus fell in January for the first time in 11 months, slipping
42.8 percent from a year earlier to 105 billion yen ($884.7
million), the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.
The surplus was in line with a median forecast for a 42
percent fall to 110 billion yen by economists polled by Reuters
earlier this month.
Exports rose for the 10th straight month on a year-on-year
basis, up 7.9 percent at 3.84 trillion yen. But from the previous
month, exports were down 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted
basis.
Imports were up 10.7 percent from a year earlier at 3.74
trillion yen but down 3.5 percent from a month earlier.
The following is a breakdown of the trade figures. (in
million yen, with percentage changes):
_______________________________________________________________
(Unadjusted, mln yen, y/y) JAN YEAR AGO PCT CHANGE
Overall balance 104,986 183,692 -42.8
Exports 3,840,780 3,559,625 7.9
Imports 3,735,794 3,375,933 10.7
---------------------------------------------------------------
(Seasonally adjusted m/m) JAN DEC PCT CHANGE
Overall balance 676,177 775,345 -12.8
Exports 4,336,453 4,570,175 -5.1
Imports 3,660,276 3,794,830 -3.5
_______________________________________________________________
($1=118.67 Yen)

Japan prelim Jan crude imports up 46.0% by value
TOKYO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The value of Japan`s
customs-cleared imports of crude oil totalled a preliminary
463.014 billion yen ($3.9 billion) on a CIF basis in January, up
46.0 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said on
Monday.
The volume of January crude imports rose 9.5 percent from a
year earlier to 21.835 million kilolitres.
The rise in the value of imports compared with volume is
largely attributable to the jump in crude prices.
The average benchmark U.S. crude price for January 2002 was
$19.73 a barrel compared with $32.70 in January 2003.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is due to release
key January data, including import statistics for crude oil and
oil products, on Friday.
($1=118.67 yen)

schrieb am 24.02.03 07:45:59

Beitrag Nr. 205 ()

06:34 A Pakistan International Airlines aircraft has gone m…

schrieb am 24.02.03 21:41:00

Beitrag Nr. 206 ()

Nach den miesen Vorgaben aus Japan waren die Märkte schon ein wenig verschnupft, was sich dann auch fortführen sollte.

The ThyssenKrupp downgrade marks the first time that the size of a European company`s pension deficit is directly affecting its borrowing costs. S&P said it would cut the rating for Thyssen`s senior long-term debt two notches to double-B-plus from triple-B. The rating on outstanding bonds was cut to double-B.

The decision was described as "incomprehensible" by ThyssenKrupp officials, who said the company`s finances have improved since it was initially rated in the summer of 2001. All that has changed, they said, is the way S&P is treating its pension debt.

The downgrade initially shook the steel company`s investors Friday. Thyssen-Krupp shares dropped as much as 7% in Frankfurt and ended down 2.1%. Prices of the company`s debt also gyrated.

ThyssenKrupp, the world`s fourth-largest flat-carbon steel producer, has nearly as many pensioners as workers. S&P has said it is treating pension costs and other long-term liabilities as if they are debts that must be taken into account when judging a company`s financial health and therefore its credit rating.

ThyssenKrupp Chief Executive Ekkehard Schulz said the ratings cut would lead to additional annual costs of as much as 20 million euros during the next two years but added that the firm has no refinancing requirements until 2005.

Italy dominated the primary market by offering $4 billion of debt split equally between 10- and 30-year maturities. Gazprom, the Russian oil and gas company, wrapped up its long-anticipated 10-year global bond offering.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bond prices rose. The March 10-year futures contract futures closed up 0.22 point at 142.85. In late trading, the yield on the newest No. 246 10-year government bond was 0.835%, down 0.02 percentage point from Thursday, as bond yields and prices move inversely." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">24 Feb 2003 08:00
World Bond Markets:
S&P Downgrades ThyssenKrupp on Pension Ills
----
A Wall Street Journal News Roundup

Standard & Poor`s signaled an aggressive stand on pension liabilities by downgrading ThyssenKrupp to junk-bond status only two weeks after putting the firm and 11 others on notice.

The decision, which S&P said reflects the German steelmaker`s "aggressive" risk profile, highlights the increasing scrutiny that is being placed on companies` pension plans. Several companies, including Dutch logistics group TPG, have acknowledged that rising pension costs will hurt their bottom lines. TPG, which last week said it will more than double its pension contribution this year, also is on S&P`s watch list.

The ThyssenKrupp downgrade marks the first time that the size of a European company`s pension deficit is directly affecting its borrowing costs. S&P said it would cut the rating for Thyssen`s senior long-term debt two notches to double-B-plus from triple-B. The rating on outstanding bonds was cut to double-B.

The decision was described as "incomprehensible" by ThyssenKrupp officials, who said the company`s finances have improved since it was initially rated in the summer of 2001. All that has changed, they said, is the way S&P is treating its pension debt.

The downgrade initially shook the steel company`s investors Friday. Thyssen-Krupp shares dropped as much as 7% in Frankfurt and ended down 2.1%. Prices of the company`s debt also gyrated.

ThyssenKrupp, the world`s fourth-largest flat-carbon steel producer, has nearly as many pensioners as workers. S&P has said it is treating pension costs and other long-term liabilities as if they are debts that must be taken into account when judging a company`s financial health and therefore its credit rating.

ThyssenKrupp Chief Executive Ekkehard Schulz said the ratings cut would lead to additional annual costs of as much as 20 million euros during the next two years but added that the firm has no refinancing requirements until 2005.

Italy dominated the primary market by offering $4 billion of debt split equally between 10- and 30-year maturities. Gazprom, the Russian oil and gas company, wrapped up its long-anticipated 10-year global bond offering.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bond prices rose. The March 10-year futures contract futures closed up 0.22 point at 142.85. In late trading, the yield on the newest No. 246 10-year government bond was 0.835%, down 0.02 percentage point from Thursday, as bond yields and prices move inversely.

==> Kein Wunder das es hier dann auch weiter runter mußte.

24 Feb 2003 07:00 GMT
Technology Brief:
Cisco Systems Inc. …

==> Schon mehrfach wurde dieses von den führenden Technologieunternehmen angesprochen. Mal sehen wie das weiter geht.

German Jan PPI Up 1.3% On Month; Up 1.6% On Year

==> Tja die Lohnnebenkosten machen den Produzentenpreisen den Gar aus. Damit auch deutlich schlechter als die Erwartungen. Damit waren dann die Weichen für den Tag auch schon gestellt. (Erwartungen siehe nächster Artikel)

.

CBO is predicting a budget deficit of $199 billion for the current fiscal year, if Congress holds appropriations to $751 billion, does not finance a war with Iraq and does not pass any new tax cuts or spending programs.

In the January 2003 budget statement, receipts were $187.90 billion. Receipts were $203.45 billion in January 2002 and $182.80 billion in December 2002, Treasury said.

January 2003 outlays were $176.79 billion, compared with $159.72 billion in January 2002 and $178.43 billion in December.

In January 2003, the government paid $13.58 billion in net interest on the federal debt. Net interest on the federal debt excludes interest paid on nonmarketable government securities held by federal trust funds, such as Social Security." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">DJ US Govt Posted $11.11 Bln Total Surplus In January

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. federal government ran a small surplus in January, but red ink continues to pile up at a much faster pace than last year.

The government notched a $11.11 billion budget surplus in January 2003, compared with a surplus of $43.73 billion in January 2002, Treasury said. December 2002 figures were unrevised, showing a budget surplus of $4.37 billion for the month.

For the first four months of fiscal year 2003, which began last October, the government racked up a deficit of $97.61 billion. At this point in the previous year, the federal government was running a slim surplus of $8.37 billion.

The figures were broadly in line with Congressional Budget Office forecasts. CBO had predicted a $10 billion surplus for January and a $98 billion deficit for the first four months of the current fiscal year.

US Govt Budget/January: Receipts Down From Previous Yr

CBO said tax receipts have been lower this year for a variety of reasons. Fallout from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks also appears to have given a one-time boost to the government`s receipts last year, because of deferred payments.

"At least $5 billion of the decline (in receipts this January) occurred because receipts in January 2002, especially corporate income and excise taxes, were temporarily boosted by payments deferred as a result of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks," CBO said. "Other factors related to recent weakness in incomes also clearly contributed to the declines."

CBO is predicting a budget deficit of $199 billion for the current fiscal year, if Congress holds appropriations to $751 billion, does not finance a war with Iraq and does not pass any new tax cuts or spending programs.

In the January 2003 budget statement, receipts were $187.90 billion. Receipts were $203.45 billion in January 2002 and $182.80 billion in December 2002, Treasury said.

January 2003 outlays were $176.79 billion, compared with $159.72 billion in January 2002 and $178.43 billion in December.

In January 2003, the government paid $13.58 billion in net interest on the federal debt. Net interest on the federal debt excludes interest paid on nonmarketable government securities held by federal trust funds, such as Social Security.

==> Hier lag die Zahl zwischen Erwartungen von Analysten für einge war es besser, für andere war es schlechter. Da die Zahlen an sich aber nicht so toll sind hier auch kein Applaus. Aber auch kein Up oder Down.

schrieb am 24.02.03 21:46:43

Beitrag Nr. 207 ()

Ansonsten aber ganz nette News zum Teil von einzelnen Unternehmen:

Nokia upgraded at SG Cowen: SG Cowen upgrades to Outperform from Mkt Perform based on their belief that handset inventory is being burned off at a faster than expected rate as well as expectation that the co`s new handset lineup should show a strong reception when it ramps in Q2.

Lowe`s upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies on earnings; target $43

Microsoft says sales pipeline much stronger: Traders citing Bloomberg say that MSFT announced during their Goldman Sachs conference presentation that their sales pipeline "is much stronger"." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Lowe`s beats by $0.07, guides: Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of …

schrieb am 24.02.03 21:59:00

Beitrag Nr. 208 ()

Dienstag: 25.2.03
00:50 JP-PPI zDJ -0,6% y/y
04:40 JP-Notenbank-Gouverneurs Masaru Hayami zum Thema "Japans Wirtschaft und ihre Aufgaben"
08:00 DE-Außenhandelspreise
08:45 F-Wohnungsbaubeginne Jan
08:50 F-CPI (endgültig)
10:00 D-Ifo Geschäftsklimaindex
10:00 I-Geschäftsklimaindex
12:00 EU-Eurostat Einzelhandelsumsätze für EU Länder Dez 2002
13:45 US-BTM-UBSW Sales Index For Feb 22 Wk zR -0.1%
14:55 US-Redbook Retail Sales Index For Feb 22 Wk zR -1.2%
15:00 EU-EZB: Consolidated Financial Statement of the Eurosystem http://www.ecb.int/
16:00 US-January Existing Home Sales Jan zR 5,86 Mio. R 5,80 Mio. A 5,70 Mio. CBS 5,79 Mio.
16:00 US-Feb Conference Board Consumer Confidence Feb zR 79,0 zB 79 R 76,8 A 76,5 C 77,0 CBS 76,8
17:00 US ISI Co. Index Wk 21.Feb zR 42,7
00:30 (26.2.) ABC/ Money Cons Conf Wk 23.Feb zR -21

10:00 Fresienus Medical Care: Q4 PK AK (2002 Zahlen vorläufig)
Erwartungen für Fresenus:
Q4 Sales 1,322 EBITA 234 EBIT 178 Pre-tax 125 *Net 77
FULL-YEAR 2002 Sales 5,049 EBITDA 908 EBIT 688 Pre-tax 478 *Net 285
*Net after exceptionals and minorities.

10:00 Audi AG PK
Infineon: AK
12:00 Credit Suisse: Q4
Home Depot: Q4 EPS: zR 0,30 R 0,27 Z 0,28 (Before Open)
Hewlett-Packard: Q1 EPS: zZ 0,29 zR 0,23 R 0,27 Z 0,27 (After Close)
Lycos: Q4
France Telecom: HV

11:00 PK Deutsches Baugewerbe Aussichten 2003

schrieb am 25.02.03 20:46:26

Beitrag Nr. 209 ()

German Jan Import Prices +0.6% On Month, +0.5% On Year
German Jan Import Prices : Below Expectations

WIESBADEN, Germany (Dow Jones)--German import prices rose slightly less than expected in January as gains in the euro offset some of the effects of recent rises in oil prices, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed Tuesday.

Import prices rose 0.6% in January from December, and were up 0.5% on the year, unchanged from December`s annual rate.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast prices would rise 0.8% on the month and 0.7% on the year.

As in previous months, most of the rise in import prices was due to developments on international oil markets, data provided by the office showed.

Excluding volatile prices for crude oil and petroleum products, January import prices fell 0.1% on the month and were down 2.4% on the year. The office said that`s the lowest annual rate since July, when import prices excluding oil fell 3.3% on the year.

Analysts had expected speculation about possible military action in Iraq, which has led to soaring oil prices over the past few months, to drive up the country`s energy bill. In January, prices for front-month Brent futures rose some 3.5% at London`s International Petroleum Exchange.

At the same time, the significant increase in raw material prices was partly compensated for by the stronger euro, which gained some 2.6% against the dollar in January.

German Jan Import Prices: Crude Oil +8.1% MM, +39% YY

In January, crude oil prices rose 8.1% from December and were up 39.2% on the year, the office said. Petroleum product prices rose 7.0% from December and were up 35.7% on the year, it added.

Falls in some food prices in January caused the huge drop in import prices excluding oil. Tomatoes were 30.1% cheaper than a year ago, while pork prices fell 10.1% on the year in January.

Meanwhile, German export prices rose 0.1% in January from December and were up 0.6% from a year earlier. Export prices had been flat on the month in December and had risen 0.6% on the year.

Export prices have remained virtually flat for almost a year now, suggesting the recent rise in the euro hasn`t harmed German exporters` competitiveness yet.

The Federal Statistics Office Tuesday provided the following data for German import prices:

Period Index Change On
Month Year
January 109.6 +0.6% +0.5%
December 109.0 +0.9% +0.5%
January 2002 109.1 +0.6% -3.4%
Based on 1995 prices at 100.

Aus meiner Sicht ja eigentlich ganz gute News. Schließlich sind die Exportpreise noch stabil bei steigendem Euro. Der Anstieg der Importpreise war zu dem unter den Erwartungen.

Wenn nicht sogar ein leichtes

.

Still, January`s consumption figures suggest French consumer spending for the quarter will come in a bit better than Gasnier`s forecast of 0.1%. Consumer spending, including both manufacturing and services, comprises about two-thirds of France`s gross domestic product.

Economists` forecasts for first-quarter GDP growth range 0.2%-0.4% on a quarterly basis." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">French Jan Consumer Goods Spending -0.2% M/M Vs Dec +1.8%
Clothing,Housing Limit Drop In French Spending

French Jan Consumer Mfg Spending !Surprise: Yes !
Jan Dec !Trend: Weakening !
Spending On Mo -0.2% +1.8% !Forecast: -0.5% on mo!

Spending On Yr +2.5% +2.3% !Forecast: +2.2% on yr!

PARIS (Dow Jones)--French consumer spending fell last month on a steep slide in automobile sales, though the decline was less pronounced than economists had feared.

The figures suggest that while spending is weakening, the worst-case scenario of a dramatic pullback in consumption has been avoided, so consumer spending should contribute to economic growth in the first quarter.

Consumption of manufactured products fell 0.2% on a monthly basis in January. This followed December`s 1.8% rise, which was revised up from 1.6%, government statistics institute Insee said Tuesday. Economists had expected a sharper monthly decline of 0.5%.

On an annual basis, spending was up 2.5% in January compared with 2.3% in December.

Spending on manufactured goods makes up about 30% of overall consumption, with the rest comprised mostly of services.

Spending on automobiles fell 4.7% on a monthly basis in January. That decline was offset by a 2.7% rise in housing-related goods and a 1.3% increase in spending on leather and textiles.

SNAP/French Spending: Bargains Spur Shoppers

French retailers reported strong sales last month, as heavy discounting brought out post-Christmas shoppers. Clothing prices fell 7.7% in January, Insee said in a separate report.

With that bargain stimulus gone, economists expect higher unemployment and uncertainty over Iraq to keep shoppers at home.

"In February there`s a risk of a negative number," said Olivier Gasnier, economist at Societe Generale, especially since there appears to be no reversal in sight to the weakening trend in auto sales.

Still, January`s consumption figures suggest French consumer spending for the quarter will come in a bit better than Gasnier`s forecast of 0.1%. Consumer spending, including both manufacturing and services, comprises about two-thirds of France`s gross domestic product.

Economists` forecasts for first-quarter GDP growth range 0.2%-0.4% on a quarterly basis.

Das mit verlaub war eine übele negative Überraschung von den Franzosen.

French January Final CPI +0.2% on Month; +2.0% On Year
French Jan CPI: Deflation In Manufacturing Sector

PARIS (Dow Jones)--France`s annual inflation rate slowed last month, as falling prices for manufactured goods offset higher energy prices, according to figures released Tuesday by government statistics institute Insee.

The consumer price index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in January, leaving prices 2% above year-ago levels. In December, France`s annual inflation rate was 2.3%.

The harmonized CPI, which is used to calculate inflation at the euro-zone level, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis and 1.9% on the year in January. The European Union has estimated annual euro-zone inflation at 2.1% for January.

Energy prices rose 2.2% compared with December, and oil prices increased 3.8%. Food prices, meanwhile, posted a 0.9% month-on-month rise.

But there was little price pressure elsewhere in the economy. The services component of the CPI rose 0.3%, while manufactured-goods prices fell 1.5%.

Underlying inflation, which strips out food, energy and some public services, rose 0.1% on the month and 1.4% on the year in January.

French Jan CPI: Inflation Seen Slowing In 1H

The slim rise in French inflation shouldn`t lead to any revision of the E.U.`s estimate for 2.1% inflation in the euro zone, economists said.

The rate of inflation in France is expected to continue falling in coming months, hitting 1.7% by the middle of the year, Insee said.

Ein bischen besorgniserregend ist aus meiner Sicht diese Deflationstendenz, bekommen wir noch japanische Zustände in Frankreich? Nur das Öl was derzeit die Inflationsrate oben hält, sonst wird alles billiger. Zu billig aus meiner Sicht. Daher vergebe ich ein:

That would make 2003 Audi`s eight consecutive year of record sales.

The new A3 and A8 should boost sales while the company redoubles cost-cutting efforts. Audi is also pushing harder to take advantage of the growing market in China, offsetting soft sales elsewhere.

Audi added also that Italian sports car unit Lamborghini`s sales surged 40% to 424 cars and should climb again this year. Last year was the first time in years Lamborghini posted a profit, Audi said.

VW`s Audi/2002:Had Good Response To Pikes Peak Concept

Looking further ahead, Winterkorn said the Pikes Peak station wagon-sport utility vehicle hybrid that Audi showed as a concept at January`s auto show in Detroit was well received by media and the public.

VW Chairman Bernd Pischetsrieder said at the show last month that, if Audi decides to build the Pikes Peak, it could start as soon as 2005.

Audi reiterated that it plans to invest EUR11.4 billion between 2002 and 2007, or about 7% of expected revenue. Investment in 2002 was up 12% on the year at EUR2.41 billion, with most of that funneled into new products.

Winterkorn said Audi, part of VW`s group of sporty brands, will continue to focus its brand image as well, something former VW Chairman Ferdinand Piech had pushed for before retiring.

"It is our declared goal to become the sportiest supplier in the premium segment," he said." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">VW Unit Audi 2002 Sales +2.6% At EUR22.60 Bln
VW`s Audi/2002 Earnings: Table Of Earnings Data

Audi AG - Ingolstadt, Germany
12 Mos Dec 31:

2002 2001
Vehicle Sales -a 995,531 991,444
Revenue EUR22.60 Bln EUR22.03 Bln
Pretax Profit 1.25 Bln 1.32 Bln
Pretax Profit Margin 5.6% 6%
Net Profit 774 Mln 769 Mln
a. Vehicle unit sales include brands Audi and Lamborghini and other Volkswagen brands
sold in Italy through Audi`s Autogerma SpA importer unit.

VW`s Audi/2002: Forex, New Product Costs Erode Profit

INGOLSTADT, Germany (Dow Jones)--Audi AG, the premium brand unit of Volkswagen AG, Tuesday said pretax profit slid 5.1% last year due to the strength of the euro and spending on new models, though net profit edged higher thanks to a smaller tax bill.

The German car maker said pretax profit fell to EUR1.25 billion from EUR1.32 billion in 2002 as unfavorable exchange rates cost it about EUR200 million and development of the new top-of-the-line A8 and compact A3 around the same amount, though sales were higher. That pushed pretax profit margin down to 5.6% from 6% in 2001.

Audi`s revenue jumped 2.6% last year to EUR22.6 billion as vehicle sales rose 0.4% to 995,531 units, including the Audi and Lamborghini brands, plus other Volkswagen brands sold in Italy through Audi`s importer unit Autogerma SpA.

Sales of the Audi brand alone rose 2.2% to 742,128 - weaker than its main rival Bayerische Motoren Werke AG`s (G.BMW) 4% increase for the BMW brand, but better than its main market Germany, which slumped last year.

Audi`s net profit rose 0.7% to EUR774 million, Chairman Martin Winterkorn told journalists at its annual press conference here.

VW`s Audi/2002:Upbeat On Sales Despite Econ, Mkt Risks

Audi said it is confident for 2003 despite a host of risks ranging from the weak global economy and auto markets, a potential war and talk of higher taxes in Germany.

In Germany in particular, which accounts for about a third of yearly auto sales, Audi doesn`t foresee a clear market rebound before 2004.

"We are confident that we will be able to match, and probably even exceed, the previous year`s record figures again," Winterkorn said. But an unclear economic picture makes firm forecasts impossible, he said.

That would make 2003 Audi`s eight consecutive year of record sales.

The new A3 and A8 should boost sales while the company redoubles cost-cutting efforts. Audi is also pushing harder to take advantage of the growing market in China, offsetting soft sales elsewhere.

Audi added also that Italian sports car unit Lamborghini`s sales surged 40% to 424 cars and should climb again this year. Last year was the first time in years Lamborghini posted a profit, Audi said.

VW`s Audi/2002:Had Good Response To Pikes Peak Concept

Looking further ahead, Winterkorn said the Pikes Peak station wagon-sport utility vehicle hybrid that Audi showed as a concept at January`s auto show in Detroit was well received by media and the public.

VW Chairman Bernd Pischetsrieder said at the show last month that, if Audi decides to build the Pikes Peak, it could start as soon as 2005.

Audi reiterated that it plans to invest EUR11.4 billion between 2002 and 2007, or about 7% of expected revenue. Investment in 2002 was up 12% on the year at EUR2.41 billion, with most of that funneled into new products.

Winterkorn said Audi, part of VW`s group of sporty brands, will continue to focus its brand image as well, something former VW Chairman Ferdinand Piech had pushed for before retiring.

"It is our declared goal to become the sportiest supplier in the premium segment," he said.

Dafür ein

, das ist schon eine gute Leistung sich so zu halten. Aber der Asblick ist nicht so überzeugend. Auf der anderen Seite hätte man das gleiche vor einem Jahr gesagt, und es ging gut. Deahalb auch kein down zu dieser News.

Gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter, slated for released Wednesday, is widely expected to show a contraction of 0.1% on the quarter, and many forecast a similar result for the first quarter of this year. This would technically mean another recession after just three quarters of positive growth.

However, Sinn added he didn`t expect to see a strong upswing this year. "We expect another year of stagnating growth," he said.

Ifo recently lowered its economic growth forecast for Germany in 2003 to 0.9% from the 1.1% predicted in December. Still, this forecast is one of the more optimistic, with various industry associations projecting zero growth.

The German government`s official forecast is for 1% economic growth this year after a meager 0.2% expansion in 2002 and 0.6% in 2001." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">W German Feb Ifo Up To 88.9 Vs 87.4 In Jan
Ifo`s Sinn/Feb: Sees 0.9% Econ Growth In 2003 - CNBC

Unlike many economists who`ve been voicing concerns over Germany slipping back into recession, Sinn said he didn`t share that view.

"We don`t share the opinion that Germany is at the brink of a recession," he said.

Gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter, slated for released Wednesday, is widely expected to show a contraction of 0.1% on the quarter, and many forecast a similar result for the first quarter of this year. This would technically mean another recession after just three quarters of positive growth.

However, Sinn added he didn`t expect to see a strong upswing this year. "We expect another year of stagnating growth," he said.

Ifo recently lowered its economic growth forecast for Germany in 2003 to 0.9% from the 1.1% predicted in December. Still, this forecast is one of the more optimistic, with various industry associations projecting zero growth.

The German government`s official forecast is for 1% economic growth this year after a meager 0.2% expansion in 2002 and 0.6% in 2001.

Hier muß man aber wohl doch mal ein up vergeben. Es war besser als die Erwartungen der Analysten.

Auch der Osten hält sich gut. Hier noch mal die besser als erwarteten Zahlen im Überblick:

Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Index im Februar auf 88,9 gestiegen
München, 25. Feb (Reuters) - Der Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Index
für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft in Westdeutschland ist im Februar
unerwartet gestiegen. Das Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
(Ifo) in München gab am Dienstag folgende Index-Werte für West-
und Ostdeutschland bekannt:

Westdeutschland FEB 2003 JAN 2003

Geschäftsklima 88,9 87,4

Geschäftsbeurteilung 79,6 77,1

Geschäftserwartung 98,4 98,1

Ostdeutschland

Geschäftsklima 101,9 97,5
(rev. v. 97,4)
Geschäftsbeurteilung 121,3 114,2
(rev. v. 114,1)
Geschäftserwartung 83,7 81,7
(rev. v. 81,6)

NOTE: Analysten hatten in einer Reuters-Umfrage für den
Berichtsmonat Februar im Schnitt einen leichten Rückgang des
Ifo-Geschäftsklima-Indexes für Westdeutschland von 87,4 auf 87,2
Punkte erwartet.

==> Postitiv auch die steigenden Geschäftserwartungen in Ost- und West.

Hier mal ein kleiner interessanter Einschub mit den institutionellen Investoren der Deutschen Telekom:
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG - ADR, Inst. Holders, 4Q 2002 (DT)
WASHINGTON --The following table shows the largest
shareholders in DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG - ADR (DT) for the quarter ended Dec. 31,
2002, listed by holding size. The list represents up to 50 of the largest
holders in the company.

Note: Unless otherwise mentioned the reporting date is Dec. 31, 2002.

Institution Shares Shares % Last
Held Changed Held Reported

BRANDES INVESTMENT PARTNERS, L 33,821,311 (1,503,845) 0.00
WILMINGTON TRUST COMPANY 4,328,843 0 0.00
COLONIAL MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES 3,945,850 325,300 0.00
GABELLI ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPA 3,431,627 1,430,146 0.00
MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANA 2,513,057 1,970,558 0.00 09/30/2002
CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT 2,029,143 282,335 0.00
EATON VANCE MANAGEMENT 1,714,546 (79,283) 0.00
MCLEAN BUDDEN LTD. 1,688,000 (731,700) 0.00 09/30/2002
MUNDER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 1,650,999 (15,700) 0.00
CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON, IN 1,418,677 (184,588) 0.00
GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT 1,135,454 (48,400) 0.00
BNY ASSET MANAGEMENT 1,091,493 307,690 0.00
ALLEN & COMPANY, INC. 1,000,781 0 0.00
M.H. DAVIDSON & CO., L.L.C. 965,398 965,398 0.00
JOHN A. LEVIN & COMPANY, INC. 948,798 0 0.00
YORK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 828,759 359,718 0.00 09/30/2002
HARRIS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 688,633 (63,824) 0.00
DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAGEMENT AMER 626,539 373,612 0.00
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES CORP. 559,300 363,800 0.00
DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES INC. 551,865 347,840 0.00
HARVEST MANAGEMENT L.L.C. 537,948 (1) 0.00
SENECA CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC 432,120 0 0.00
PORTOLA GROUP, INC. 429,083 (22,967) 0.00
UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (B 423,134 (3,809) 0.00
VAN KAMPEN FUNDS 381,157 (2,243,322) 0.00 09/30/2002
HSBC ASSET MANAGEMENT 370,457 5,230 0.00 09/30/2002
COMERICA, INC. 357,134 (7,662) 0.00
CITIGROUP GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEM 342,744 (3,727) 0.00 09/30/2002
SALOMON BROTHERS ASSET MANAGEM 300,509 1,440 0.00 09/30/2002
FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH 251,200 251,200 0.00
BEAR, STEARNS & CO., INC. 212,151 52,030 0.00
EGM CAPITAL 186,100 186,100 0.00
GOLDMAN SACHS & COMPANY 183,709 (718,344) 0.00
FIFTH THIRD ASSET MANAGEMENT ( 171,900 171,900 0.00 09/30/2002
ROCHDALE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 171,317 171,317 0.00
STEIN ROE & FARNHAM 154,750 43,800 0.00
HULL TRADING COMPANY, L.L.C. 152,200 152,200 0.00
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTORS 151,878 (4,263) 0.00 09/30/2002
TYNDALL MANAGEMENT LLC 135,691 0 0.00
SMITH BARNEY ASSET MANAGEMENT 116,587 (227,988) 0.00 09/30/2002
STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 103,396 (25,617) 0.00
PROFUND ADVISORS, L.L.C. 93,342 50,619 0.00
SAC CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.L.C. 75,000 30,000 0.00
RYDEX GLOBAL ADVISORS 73,024 73,024 0.00
SECURITIES MANAGEMENT & RESEAR 59,600 0 0.00
J.P. MORGAN PRIVATE BANK 57,120 (36,074) 0.00 09/30/2002
SHOTT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.L.C 55,000 (56,948) 0.00
FLEET INVESTMENT ADVISORS, INC 54,995 20,290 0.00
PANAGORA ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. 47,126 0 0.00
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. 40,400 (148,989) 0.00

=> Aus meiner Sicht jedenfalls mal sehr interessant wie viel Morgan Stanley und Credit Suisse davon haben, und wie wenig die Citi davon hat.

Italian Feb Business Confidence Rises To 94.2 From 93.8

==> Auch in Italien ist man zuversichtlicher.

The 16-week trend rate of change remained up but slowed to an average weekly rate of increase of 0.19% per week.

On a year-over-year basis, sales momentum remained off sharply, showing a 1.9% decline after a 1.5% year-over-year decline in the prior week." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">BTM/UBS Warburg US Chain Store Sales Dn 0.8% In Feb 22 Wk

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UBS Warburg Retail Chain Store Sales Index declined by 0.8% in the week ended Feb. 22 compared with the week before, on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. The index declined by 0.1% in the prior week.

Sales were generally below plan for the week according to the chains and many retailers now expect sales to fall for the full month.

"Over the last week, the severity and breadth of the winter snowstorm in the East were devastating to February sales since most of that potential Presidents` Day holiday spending was likely lost and not just shifted forward," said Mike Niemira, senior economist at BTM.

The 16-week trend rate of change remained up but slowed to an average weekly rate of increase of 0.19% per week.

On a year-over-year basis, sales momentum remained off sharply, showing a 1.9% decline after a 1.5% year-over-year decline in the prior week.

==> Keine gute Tendenz. Schlechte News aus den USA:

U.S. chain store sales fell in latest week-report
NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales decreased
during the third week of February as severe winter storms kept
customers away from stores, a report said on Tuesday.
Sales at major U.S. chain stores fell 2.6 percent in the
week ended Feb. 22 compared with the same week a year ago, the
report said.
Sales declined 2.1 percent in the three weeks ended Feb. 22,
compared with the previous month, Instinet Research said in its
weekly Redbook report.
"Heavy winter storms, particularly along the Northeast and
parts of Midwest regions, forced store closings and a disruption
of business over the Presidents Day weekend," the report said.
The Redbook Average is compiled from a sample of general
merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.
Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least a
year.

==> Auch hier leider eine recht miese Tendenz. Schlechte Nachrichten.

DATA SNAP/Confidence:Bleak Assessment Of Current Econ

The Conference Board said that its present situation index, a gauge of consumers` assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 61.6 from a revised 75.3 the prior month. The group described consumers` assessment of the current economic environment as "bleak," and said that those who see conditions as bad rose to 30.7%, from 26.7% the month before.

Meanwhile, consumer expectations for the state of economic activity over the next six months plummeted to 65.6 in February from a revised 81.1 in January.

That consumers` moods have grown increasingly sour should come as little surprise to Federal Reserve officials, who have repeatedly said that uncertainty related to things like a potential war in Iraq is the main factor holding the economy back from better growth levels. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, in a speech last week, said that the consumer and banking sectors, outside of this uncertainty, are in "good financial shape."

Fed officials, including chairman Alan Greenspan, have frequently sought to downplay the import of surveys on consumer confidence, saying they`re more interested in what consumers do with their money, rather than what they say they`ll do. Against falling confidence, consumers have continued to spend. In another report Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes jumped 3% to a new record of 6.09 million units annual rate in January.

The Conference Board consumer-confidence survey is based on a mail-in survey of 5,000 respondents. The February report follows the recent release of the University of Michigan`s mid-month consumer sentiment index, which also saw household assessment of the current and future economic situation sour across the board." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US Conf Bd Feb Consumer Confidence Index 64 Vs Jan 78.8

DATA SNAP/Confidence: Consumer Sours By Wide Margin

Conference Board Feb Jan !Surprise: Yes !
Consumer Confidence 64.0 78.8 (Rev) !Trend: Worst !
Present Situation 61.6 75.3 (Rev) !Level Since Oct !
Expectations 65.6 81.1 (Rev) !1993 !
============================================================

By Michael S. Derby
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumer confidence plunged to its lowest level in nearly 10 years in February, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The group said its index of consumer confidence for February plunged nearly 15 points to 64.0, from a revised 78.8 in January. The consumer confidence index was at 80.7 in December. February`s reading was at its lowest point since October 1993, when the index stood at 60.5

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the Conference Board`s consumer confidence index to have slid modestly to 77.0. The forecasters cited the looming war with Iraq as the biggest weight resting on consumers` shoulders.

"Lackluster job and financial markets, rising fuel costs, and the increasing threat of war and terrorism, appear to have taken a toll on consumers," said Conference Board economist Lynn Franco in a press release. "This month`s confidence readings paint a gloomy picture of current economic conditions, with no apparent rebound on the short-term horizon," she said.

DATA SNAP/Confidence:Bleak Assessment Of Current Econ

The Conference Board said that its present situation index, a gauge of consumers` assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 61.6 from a revised 75.3 the prior month. The group described consumers` assessment of the current economic environment as "bleak," and said that those who see conditions as bad rose to 30.7%, from 26.7% the month before.

Meanwhile, consumer expectations for the state of economic activity over the next six months plummeted to 65.6 in February from a revised 81.1 in January.

That consumers` moods have grown increasingly sour should come as little surprise to Federal Reserve officials, who have repeatedly said that uncertainty related to things like a potential war in Iraq is the main factor holding the economy back from better growth levels. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, in a speech last week, said that the consumer and banking sectors, outside of this uncertainty, are in "good financial shape."

Fed officials, including chairman Alan Greenspan, have frequently sought to downplay the import of surveys on consumer confidence, saying they`re more interested in what consumers do with their money, rather than what they say they`ll do. Against falling confidence, consumers have continued to spend. In another report Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes jumped 3% to a new record of 6.09 million units annual rate in January.

The Conference Board consumer-confidence survey is based on a mail-in survey of 5,000 respondents. The February report follows the recent release of the University of Michigan`s mid-month consumer sentiment index, which also saw household assessment of the current and future economic situation sour across the board.

=> Mein lieber Schwan das waren grottenschlechte Zahlen, der mieseste Tende steit Oktober 1993. :eek:

Bitter..., einfach nur bitter, oder ein Fest für die Shroties...., auch die Erwartungen lassen keinen Lichtblick zu...

Aber zum Trost kommt hier noch was schönes Überraschendes:

Lereah predicted that recent blizzard conditions in much of the Northeast may negatively impact existing home sales in March and April.

"Other than blizzard conditions, conditions for housing remain very favorable as long as the interest rate environment remains very favorable," he said.

The January report came in much stronger than Wall Street expectations. Analysts expected existing home sales to come in at a 5.80 million rate.

The NAR report comes amid signs of continuing strength in the housing sector. The Commerce Department reported last week that U.S. housing starts in January rose 0.2% to their highest level since May 1986.

The housing market has remained largely resilient despite the recession that began in March 2001. Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels, which economists expect will help underpin the housing sector. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to a record low of 5.84% last week, down from 5.86% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac.

The inventory of homes on the market rose to 4.5 months in January from December`s revised 4.3 months, NAR said.

The median home price decreased to $160,400 in January, compared with a revised $162,400 in December.

Existing home sales among the regions were mostly strong. In the Northeast, sales were up 4.5% while in the Midwest sales fell 7.5%. Home resales in the South rose 7.3% and the West region saw sales advance 5.1%.

Existing home sales for all of 2002 set an annual record of a revised 5.57 million homes, up from 5.56 million originally reported." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US Jan Existing Home Sales Up 3.0% To 6.09 Mln Rate
January Existing Home Sales Hit All-Time High

Existing Home Sales Jan Dec !Surprise: Yes !
Total Sales: 6.09M 5.91M(R)!Trend: Housing!
% Change: 3.0% 4.8%r ! Still Strong !
Months Supply: 4.5 4.3r !Consens.:5.80M!

By Deborah Lagomarsino
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Sales of existing homes surged in January to an all-time high, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Home resales increased to a 6.09 million annual rate in January, a 3.0% rise from December`s revised 5.91 million annual pace. Previously, December resales had been reported at a 5.86 million annual rate.

"The economy continues to struggle. Housing continues to be strong," said NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. "Given the demands of a growing population, and with real estate becoming the safe haven for investment, many factors are in place for a continuation of strong home sales."

Lereah predicted that recent blizzard conditions in much of the Northeast may negatively impact existing home sales in March and April.

"Other than blizzard conditions, conditions for housing remain very favorable as long as the interest rate environment remains very favorable," he said.

The January report came in much stronger than Wall Street expectations. Analysts expected existing home sales to come in at a 5.80 million rate.

The NAR report comes amid signs of continuing strength in the housing sector. The Commerce Department reported last week that U.S. housing starts in January rose 0.2% to their highest level since May 1986.

The housing market has remained largely resilient despite the recession that began in March 2001. Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels, which economists expect will help underpin the housing sector. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to a record low of 5.84% last week, down from 5.86% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac.

The inventory of homes on the market rose to 4.5 months in January from December`s revised 4.3 months, NAR said.

The median home price decreased to $160,400 in January, compared with a revised $162,400 in December.

Existing home sales among the regions were mostly strong. In the Northeast, sales were up 4.5% while in the Midwest sales fell 7.5%. Home resales in the South rose 7.3% and the West region saw sales advance 5.1%.

Existing home sales for all of 2002 set an annual record of a revised 5.57 million homes, up from 5.56 million originally reported.

Unglaublich das die Ammis hier noch mehr Häuser verkaufen konnten.

Es gibt wohl auch Wirtschaftsbereiche die von den niedrigen Zinsen profitieren. Aber ob man das noch steigern kann. Das habe ich letzte Mal aber auch gesagt...

schrieb am 25.02.03 20:52:30

Beitrag Nr. 210 ()

an." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Fresenius Medical Care steigert in 2002 Umsatz und Gewinn
BAD HOMBURG (AWP/dpa-AFX) - Der Dialysetechnikhersteller Fresenius Medical
Care hat 2002 Gewinn und Umsatz gesteigert. Der Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern
(EBIT) sei um acht Prozent auf 695 Mio USD gestiegen, teilte das im DAX notierte
Unternehmen am Dienstag in Bad Homburg mit. Der Umsatz kletterte um fünf Prozent
auf 5,08 Mrd USD. Das Ergebnis nach Steuern und vor außerordentlichem Aufwand
stieg um 23 Prozent auf 302 Mio USD.

Das Ergebnis pro Aktie (EPS) vor außerordentlichem Aufwand verbesserte sich
um 23 Prozent auf 3,12 USD. Die Dividende pro Stammaktie soll auf 0,94 Euro
(2001: 0,85 Euro) steigen, die Dividende pro Vorzugsaktie auf 1,00 Euro (2001:
0,91 Euro).

Für das Gesamtjahr 2003 bestätigte das Unternehmen seine Prognose. Fresenius
Medical Care peilt ein währungsbereinigtes prozentualesUmsatzwachstum vor
Akquisitionen im mittleren einstelligen Bereich und ein Plus beim Ergebnis nach
Steuern im "hohen einstelligen beziehungsweise niedrigen zweistelligen Bereich"
an.

Das sind 7 Mio. Euro im EBIT über den Erwartungen der Analysten. Ausblick stimmt.

schrieb am 25.02.03 21:00:12

Beitrag Nr. 211 ()

The Atlanta-based retailer is trying to reverse weakening sales and fend off smaller rival Lowe`s, which is ringing up strong sales as it moves into large U.S. markets such as Los Angeles and the New York area.

Home Depot`s sales fell 2 percent to $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter as same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, dropped 6 percent. The retailer warned last month that same-store sales, an important retail measure, could fall as much as 10 percent.

"They have lost their sales momentum," said Phil Larkins, a market strategist at Legacy South, an Atlanta asset-management firm that owns Home Depot stock. "They have to do something to get those sales back, and I would surmise that the morale there is not good."

Over the past few quarters, Home Depot`s steady slide in same-store sales has convinced many analysts that it is losing customers to Lowe`s.

Larkins said newer, "dolled-up" Lowe`s stores stand in sharp contrast to Home Depot`s aging, warehouse-like outlets. "They`ve clearly been surprised that Lowe`s has been able to take business," he said.

On Monday, Lowe`s posted a 46 percent rise in quarterly profit on a 17 percent rise in sales, including a 4 percent same-store sales gain. In sharp contrast to Home Depot`s cautious outlook, Lowe`s said low mortgage rates and rising single-family building permits pointed to strength in home improvement.

Home Depot said it earned $686 million in the fourth quarter, ended Feb. 2, down from $710 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings were unchanged at 30 cents, above analysts` mean forecast of 27 cents as compiled by research firm Thomson First Call.

LOSING MARKET SHARE

"It has been a given for more than a year now that Lowe`s is taking (market) share" from Home Depot, said Donald Trott of Jefferies & Co. "And there`s still in our judgment a long way to go in terms of Lowe`s intruding on Home Depot markets."

Home Depot Chief Executive Robert Nardelli, in a conference call, said the company failed to achieve its initial sales growth estimate of 15 percent to 18 percent for 2002.

Customer service "was not at the level of expectation," Nardelli said. "For 2003, our focus is very simple: It`s on sales, service and execution."

Nardelli spent last year centralizing operations and is now looking to make shopping at Home Depot`s more than 1,500 stores a more pleasant experience. Lowe`s has more than 850 stores.

Home Depot is spending $250 million this year to remodel older stores and is providing more worker training to improve customer service. This past weekend, it began a new national ad campaign touting its services.

Larkins said Nardelli`s moves have cut costs and improved gross profit margins but have not been enough to keep sales growing.

"The benefits of the expense control can only go so far," the market strategist said. "They`re going to have to refocus on revenue growth."

Home Depot said fourth-quarter same-store sales were hurt by cannibalization as newer Home Depot stores took sales from older ones, weak sales over the holiday shopping season, and disruption to customer traffic from merchandise changes.

The company forecast flat to slightly positive same-store sales this year, per-share earnings growth of 9 percent to 14 percent, and sales growth of 9 percent to 12 percent.

It also said it would start providing sales and earnings forecasts only on an annual basis, rather than quarterly. Other companies, including Coca-Cola Co. <KO.N>, have announced the same policy change recently.

Analysts expect Home Depot to earn 36 cents a share for the first quarter, unchanged from a year earlier, according to First Call.

Home Depot`s stock has been pounded over the past year as the company`s earnings and sales growth have failed to keep up with Lowe`s. The stock, down more than 50 percent in 2002, was off 27 cents at $21.91 in midday New York Stock Exchange trading." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Home Depot posts lower sales and earnings 2/25/03
ATLANTA, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Home Depot Inc., the world`s largest home-improvement retailer, on Tuesday reported a 3 percent decline in fourth-quarter profit as competition from Lowe`s Cos. hurt sales.

Home Depot said it still expects higher results this year but warned that its outlook "was cautious due to the current geopolitical environment and the domestic economy."

The Atlanta-based retailer is trying to reverse weakening sales and fend off smaller rival Lowe`s, which is ringing up strong sales as it moves into large U.S. markets such as Los Angeles and the New York area.

Home Depot`s sales fell 2 percent to $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter as same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, dropped 6 percent. The retailer warned last month that same-store sales, an important retail measure, could fall as much as 10 percent.

"They have lost their sales momentum," said Phil Larkins, a market strategist at Legacy South, an Atlanta asset-management firm that owns Home Depot stock. "They have to do something to get those sales back, and I would surmise that the morale there is not good."

Over the past few quarters, Home Depot`s steady slide in same-store sales has convinced many analysts that it is losing customers to Lowe`s.

Larkins said newer, "dolled-up" Lowe`s stores stand in sharp contrast to Home Depot`s aging, warehouse-like outlets. "They`ve clearly been surprised that Lowe`s has been able to take business," he said.

On Monday, Lowe`s posted a 46 percent rise in quarterly profit on a 17 percent rise in sales, including a 4 percent same-store sales gain. In sharp contrast to Home Depot`s cautious outlook, Lowe`s said low mortgage rates and rising single-family building permits pointed to strength in home improvement.

Home Depot said it earned $686 million in the fourth quarter, ended Feb. 2, down from $710 million a year earlier. Per-share earnings were unchanged at 30 cents, above analysts` mean forecast of 27 cents as compiled by research firm Thomson First Call.

LOSING MARKET SHARE

"It has been a given for more than a year now that Lowe`s is taking (market) share" from Home Depot, said Donald Trott of Jefferies & Co. "And there`s still in our judgment a long way to go in terms of Lowe`s intruding on Home Depot markets."

Home Depot Chief Executive Robert Nardelli, in a conference call, said the company failed to achieve its initial sales growth estimate of 15 percent to 18 percent for 2002.

Customer service "was not at the level of expectation," Nardelli said. "For 2003, our focus is very simple: It`s on sales, service and execution."

Nardelli spent last year centralizing operations and is now looking to make shopping at Home Depot`s more than 1,500 stores a more pleasant experience. Lowe`s has more than 850 stores.

Home Depot is spending $250 million this year to remodel older stores and is providing more worker training to improve customer service. This past weekend, it began a new national ad campaign touting its services.

Larkins said Nardelli`s moves have cut costs and improved gross profit margins but have not been enough to keep sales growing.

"The benefits of the expense control can only go so far," the market strategist said. "They`re going to have to refocus on revenue growth."

Home Depot said fourth-quarter same-store sales were hurt by cannibalization as newer Home Depot stores took sales from older ones, weak sales over the holiday shopping season, and disruption to customer traffic from merchandise changes.

The company forecast flat to slightly positive same-store sales this year, per-share earnings growth of 9 percent to 14 percent, and sales growth of 9 percent to 12 percent.

It also said it would start providing sales and earnings forecasts only on an annual basis, rather than quarterly. Other companies, including Coca-Cola Co. <KO.N>, have announced the same policy change recently.

Analysts expect Home Depot to earn 36 cents a share for the first quarter, unchanged from a year earlier, according to First Call.

Home Depot`s stock has been pounded over the past year as the company`s earnings and sales growth have failed to keep up with Lowe`s. The stock, down more than 50 percent in 2002, was off 27 cents at $21.91 in midday New York Stock Exchange trading.

EPS war drei Cent über den Erwartungen der Analysten was über 10% mehr ist als man erwartet hat. Somit gute News hier.

Bleibt aber ein wenig bitterer Beigeschmack von dem um 2% zurückgegangenen Umsätzen.

schrieb am 25.02.03 22:33:15

Beitrag Nr. 212 ()

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Hewlett-Packard earnings details; blames rev shortfall on weak commercial spending (HPQ) 18.18 +0.43: Co reports Q1 earnings of $0.29 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus. Revs for the qtr rose 57.0% year/year to $17.88 bln, below the $18.50 bln consensus. "Our revenue shortfalls were largely confined to the U.S. market, as weak commercial spending continued." However, co says it is comfortable reaffirming the Q2 consensus est of $0.27.

Über den Erwartungen aber leider etwas weniger Umsätze.

schrieb am 25.02.03 22:35:58

Beitrag Nr. 213 ()

Mittwoch: 26.2.03

0:50 JP-Einzelhandelsumsätze Jan (pelim.) zDJ -3,4% y/y
08:00 DE-Konsumentenpreisindex (final) Jan bis Jan PK dazu um 10:30
08:00 DE-GDP Q4 (seasonaly adj. erw. -0,1% qq / unadjusted erw. +0,6% yy / Calender adjusted erw. +0,6% yy )
09:00 I-Einzelhandelsumsätze Dez
10:30 GB-GDP Q4 (second estimate erw. +0,4% qq +2,2% yy)
12:00 DE-CPI final (erw. +0,9% mm , +1,1% yy)
13:00 US-Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Applications Index Wk 21.Feb zR 1082,8
------Refinancing Index zR 5438,1
15:30 US-Rede von Notenbankchef Greenspan

Linde: Q4 Prelim.
Erwartungen:
2002 Sales 8,898 EBITA 674 Pre-tax 495 Net 377 income 251

Roche: Q4 AK

schrieb am 26.02.03 22:50:51

Beitrag Nr. 214 ()

Wholesale sales eked out a 0.3% rise in January - the first in 24 months, said an official from the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry, who briefed reporters on the data.

But the ministry maintained its basic assessment that sales remain weak." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Japan Jan Overall Retail Sales Down 2.2% On Year
Japan Jan Retail Sales: 22nd Straight Month Of Falls

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japanese retail sales fell 2.2% in January from a year earlier,
the government said Wednesday, showing consumer spending remains weak amid ongoing
deflationary pressures.
Overall sales were down for the twenty-second straight month, after falling 3.4% in December, the ministry said.

Sales at large-scale retailers fell 1.9% on year, after adjustment for change in the number of stores. Large-scale retail sales fell 4.2% on year in December.

High levels of unemployment due to companies` ongoing restructuring efforts have weighed on consumer outlays at large stores. Persistent deflation also encourages consumers to delay purchases.

Japan Jan Retail Sales:Improvement From Steep Dec Drop

The fact that January`s fall in overall sales was more moderate than December`s reflected a rebound from that month`s steep decline, which analysts said was exaggerated by seasonal factors.

"In all, this report supports the view that, while sales continue to trend downward, technical factors explain a large part of the collapse in December," said Ryo Hino, an economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.

Wholesale sales eked out a 0.3% rise in January - the first in 24 months, said an official from the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry, who briefed reporters on the data.

But the ministry maintained its basic assessment that sales remain weak.

Im Jahresvergleich sind das natürlich mal wieder grottenschlechte News heute Morgen aus Japan gewesen. Auch wenn der Hoffnungsschimmer der steigenden Großhandelsumsätze mit dabei ist.

He said Germany`s high unemployment - almost 4.3 million were without jobs in January - and hikes in social security contributions and taxes in January will curb private consumption in the first quarter.

"The situation is serious, we are hovering around a recession and the first quarter will again be stagnant or contract slightly," Kraemer said.

Thomas Amend, economist at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt in Duesseldorf said the improvement in the Ifo business sentiment index in February shouldn`t be overrated because higher retail sales are unlikely to continue if a war in Iraq starts." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">German 4Q GDP Real -0.0%QQ, +0.5%YY; Seen -0.1%, +0.6%
German 4Q GDP Static; Just Better Than Expected

4Q Real GDP

!Surprise: Slight !
4Q 3Q !Trend: Stagnant !
Change On Qtr -0.0% +0.3% !Forecast:-0.1%QQ S/A !
Change On Yr +0.5% +1.0% Rev ! +0.6%YY Unadj!

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Germany`s economy was stagnant in the fourth quarter of 2002, marginally above forecasts for a 0.1% fall, and grew 0.5% from the previous year the Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday.

The data signal the euro-zone`s largest economy could be on its way into a recession if the situation gets worse in the first quarter, which could be prompted by tax and energy price hikes and uncertainty over a war in Iraq, analysts say.

The statistics office said it put a minus sign before the zero figure for fourth-quarter growth, to indicate that the economy contracted very slightly.

German 4Q GDP: Data Add To Rate Cut Hopes

The fourth-quarter data were largely in line with a Deutsche Bundesbank`s latest forecast of a small decline on the quarter and 0.5% on the year. It was only marginally better than analysts` forecasts of an 0.1% decline on the quarter and a 0.6% rise on the year.

Third-quarter GDP growth was kept unchanged at 0.3% on the quarter but was revised to 1.0% on the year from the 0.9% rise originally reported. Full-year growth, which was already reported, will also be kept unchanged at +0.2% on the year.

The stagnation in the euro-zone`s largest economy in the last quarter of 2002 is putting the brakes on euro-zone growth as a whole, providing the European Central Bank with more grounds to cut interest rates.

But there are also small signs of hope. The Ifo index, the closely watched survey of German business confidence Tuesday was better than expected and rose for the second month in a row in February, after eight months of decline. Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said the German economy seems to be improving on a broad base and isn`t on the brink of a recession. But he also said the March index would be decisive to say whether the growth trend has changed.

German 4Q GDP:Investment Offers Sign Of Hope

The Bundesbank last week said Germany wasn`t in danger of recession, and company surveys and incoming orders give hope that the economy can regain ground in the first months of this year.

In line with the Bundesbank`s assessment, the government data Wednesday showed improving industrial demand was the main positive sign for the economy, while private consumption and exports remained weak.

Domestic demand rose 0.5% on the quarter, which was erased by a 0.5% decline in net exports.

Imports rose 1.9% on the quarter, after a 2.1% rise in the third quarter, while exports rose a weaker 0.3% on the quarter, after a 2.9% rise in the third quarter. This lead to a fall in net exports.

Domestic demand was boosted by investment in plant and equipment, construction and other investment, which includes information technology investment, the office said.

The said investment for plant and equipment, up 1.4%, and especially for construction, up 0.4%, rose on the quarter for the first time since the third quarter of 2000 and the third quarter of 1999, respectively.

However, private consumption slowed to +0.1% from +0.4% in the previous quarter, and public consumption shrank by 0.5% after a 0.2% rise in the third quarter.

German 4Q GDP:1Q Seen Flat Or Contracting

Based on fourth-quarter GDP data and including fresh data for tax revenues, Germany`s 2002 public-sector deficit as a percentage of GDP will be revised to 3.6% from 3.7%, the Federal Statistics Office said.

Economists said they expect Germany`s first-quarter GDP to be either stagnant or to contract slightly, despite the rises in investment and domestic demand in the fourth quarter.

"The uncertainty in the corporate sector is so big, and leading indicators are on such a low level, that I don`t expect the rise in investment to continue in the first quarter," said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist with Invesco Asset Management Germany.

He said Germany`s high unemployment - almost 4.3 million were without jobs in January - and hikes in social security contributions and taxes in January will curb private consumption in the first quarter.

"The situation is serious, we are hovering around a recession and the first quarter will again be stagnant or contract slightly," Kraemer said.

Thomas Amend, economist at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt in Duesseldorf said the improvement in the Ifo business sentiment index in February shouldn`t be overrated because higher retail sales are unlikely to continue if a war in Iraq starts.

Na ja, die Daten waren gerade mal eben so in den Erwartungen. Es läßt sich aber nicht leugnen, das hier ein Rückgang vorhanden war, in einem Weihnachtsquartal. Hierfür kann es keinen Applaus geben, und auch keinen Daumen hoch. Den nach unten gibt es aber auch nicht, da die Zahlen besser als die Erwartungen waren.

Wenn man sich allerdings die Daten im Original anschaut, mit der Anpassung an das Preisniveau an 1995, dann sind diese Zahlen einfach nur schlecht.

Ich frage mich manchmal ob die Regierung daran verdient Deutschland so wirtschaftlich nieder zu machen. Die ziehen doch wirklich alle Register dieses zu machen.

Einkommen werden weniger, damit die Steuereinnahmen auch...

Die Zahlen von Linde:
2002 we are using this time to focus on bringing about a lasting
improvement in our competitive position," Linde Chief Executive
Wolfgang Reitzle said in a statement.
"As soon as the economy begins to improve, we will again show
clear positive growth in sales and profits."
Linde warned in November that full-year earnings across its
units would be lower in 2002 due to economic weakness in its main
markets, particularly Germany, although it said it expected group
sales as a whole to rise slightly.
Although it did not detail results at its divisions, it said
the material handling business, which makes forklift trucks and
is the group`s most economically sensitive unit, saw a
significant decline in earnings as economic weakness drove
clients to postpone orders.
It said the results at its refrigeration business, which
posted a 16-million-euro loss in the first nine months of 2002 as
food retailers cut back on spending, were flat compared with a
year ago, while the results at its gas business had improved.
Linde`s stock has underperformed the DJ Stoxx chemicals index
, of which it is a constituent, by eight percent since the
start of the year.
The stock has shed 18 percent of its value since February 7,
when credit ratings agency Standard & Poor`s said it may
downgrade a number of European firms including Linde, citing
underfunded pension liabilities. S&P did, however, say Linde`s
liquidity position remained strong.
Full-year net earnings were broadly flat at 240 million
euros, which the company attributed to a lower tax burden.
It said an extraordinary gain of 165 million euros from the
sale of an indirect holding in Dresdner Bank was offset
by one-off expenses for restructuring." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Linde 2002 core earnings fall 15 pct
FRANKFURT, Feb 26 (Reuters) - German gas and engineering
group Linde AG said on Wednesday its core profits fell over 15
percent in 2002, missing analysts` forecasts, but said earnings
would show a clear improvement when the economy recovers.
Linde, one of the world`s leading forklift truck makers, said
earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) slipped to
647 million euros ($696.6 million) from 764 million in 2001,
while sales fell to 8.73 billion euros.
A Reuters poll of 14 analysts had forecast an average EBITA
of 674 million euros on sales of 8.90 billion.
"While we cannot be satisfied with the course of business for
2002 we are using this time to focus on bringing about a lasting
improvement in our competitive position," Linde Chief Executive
Wolfgang Reitzle said in a statement.
"As soon as the economy begins to improve, we will again show
clear positive growth in sales and profits."
Linde warned in November that full-year earnings across its
units would be lower in 2002 due to economic weakness in its main
markets, particularly Germany, although it said it expected group
sales as a whole to rise slightly.
Although it did not detail results at its divisions, it said
the material handling business, which makes forklift trucks and
is the group`s most economically sensitive unit, saw a
significant decline in earnings as economic weakness drove
clients to postpone orders.
It said the results at its refrigeration business, which
posted a 16-million-euro loss in the first nine months of 2002 as
food retailers cut back on spending, were flat compared with a
year ago, while the results at its gas business had improved.
Linde`s stock has underperformed the DJ Stoxx chemicals index
, of which it is a constituent, by eight percent since the
start of the year.
The stock has shed 18 percent of its value since February 7,
when credit ratings agency Standard & Poor`s said it may
downgrade a number of European firms including Linde, citing
underfunded pension liabilities. S&P did, however, say Linde`s
liquidity position remained strong.
Full-year net earnings were broadly flat at 240 million
euros, which the company attributed to a lower tax burden.
It said an extraordinary gain of 165 million euros from the
sale of an indirect holding in Dresdner Bank was offset
by one-off expenses for restructuring.

EBITDA also unter den Erwartungen, aber Standard and Poors hat sich ja recht positiv geäußert. Daher hier ein

, dem ich KEIN Sell-on-good news zufüge.

Verbraucherpreisindex im Februar 2003: + 1,3 % zum Februar 2002
Wie das Statistische Bundesamt mitteilt, wird sich der Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland im Februar 2003 – auf Grund einer Schätzung nach vorliegenden Ergebnissen aus sechs Bundesländern – gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,3% (Januar 2003: + 1,1%) erhöhen.
Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ergibt sich damit eine Veränderung von + 0,5%.
Ausschlaggebend für diese Entwicklung sind im Wesentlichen die starken Preiserhöhungen bei Heizöl und Kraftstoffen.
Der für europäische Zwecke berechnete harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland wird sich im Februar 2003 gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,2% erhöhen (Januar 2003: + 0,9%). Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ist dies eine Steigerung um 0,5%.

Man hatte hier nur eine Steigerung von +0,9% erwartet, so daß eine geringer als erwartete Preissteigerung schon positiv zu werten ist. Oder sagen wir mal der Markt hat hier vielleicht eine Abwärtsbewegung vorausgenommen.

Aus meiner Sicht sind die Zahlen zusammen mit den anderen leider doch negativ, auch wenn sie besser als die Erwartungen waren. Die Dinge kosten nun halt 0,5% mehr, und die Löhne sind zudem 0,4% weniger im Q4 gewesen. Das Resultat ist zwangsläufig eine schrumpfende Konjunktur.

Italy 2002 retail sales rise 1.8 pct from 2001
ROME, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Official Italian statistics agency
ISTAT on Wednesday gave the following data for retail sales in
medium and large firms in Italy in December.
ISTAT added that retail sales in 2002 climbed 1.8 percent
from 2001 driven by a 2.7 percent rise in the sale of food
products and a 4.0 percent rise in sales at major distributors.

Dec 02 Nov 02 Dec 01
Index (1995=100) 172.9 128.7 169.0
Yr/yr change 2.3 1.8 1.6
Mth/mth change 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 (r)
Major distributors y/y 4.1 5.5 4.9
Smaller distributors y/y 1.8 1.0 0.9

r = denotes a revision

Gute Zahlen aus dem Dezember für Italien. Gut aber halt alt aus dem Dezember...

UK Q4 GDP growth unrevised at 0.4 pct QQ
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics issued the following, seasonally adjusted data on
gross domestic product (GDP). (Index base 1995, constant prices,
previous estimates in brackets):

Q4 02 Q3 02
GDP AT MARKET PRICES (constant prices)
Pct change q/q 0.4 (0.4) 0.9 (0.9)
Pct change y/y 2.1 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1)
Index 120.5 (120.7) 120.1 (120.3)

IMPLIED GDP DEFLATOR AT MARKET PRICES
Pct change q/q 1.0 0.3
Pct change y/y 2.9 3.3
Index 121.9 120.6

GDP AT MARKET PRICES (CONSTANT PRICES)
2002 2001
Pct change yr/yr 1.6 (1.7) 2.0

MARKET FORECAST: Q/Q Y/Y
GDP AT MARKET PRICES 0.4 2.2

OUTPUT DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Agriculture etc -1.0 2.1
Mining/quarrying inc oil 2.1 -0.5
Manufacturing sector -0.9 -1.5*
Electricity, gas, water -1.6 0.4
Total production -0.7 -1.2
Construction 1.1 7.1
Distribution,hotels,catering 0.5 (0.8) 3.3 (3.8)
Transport and communication 0.9 2.8
Business, services & finance 0.6 1.9
Government and other svs 0.3 2.3
Total service industries 0.5** (0.6)2.4 (2.2)

EXPENDITURE DATA (constant prices)
Q/Q Y/Y
Households 1.0 3.6
Non-profit institutions 0.8 4.1
General government 0.8 2.3
Gross fixed capital form. -0.6 -3.3
Total 1.3 2.8
Total exports -3.4 -0.3
Total final expenditure 0.2 2.1
less total imports -0.3 2.2
GDP at market prices 0.4 2.1

Q4 Q3
Changes in inventories (mln stg) 964 -632
Of which: other industries 1,575 23

INCOME DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Compensation of employees 1.2 4.3
Gross operating surplus 2.0 5.6
of corporations

* least negative since Q2 2001, when it was also -1.5 pct.
** lowest since Q1 2002, when it was +0.2 pct.

NOTE - The ONS said the main reason for the downward
revision to the Q4 yr/yr growth rate was weaker output from the
hotel and restaurant sector across all four quarters of the
year.
The downward revision to the full year 2002 growth rate was
due to lower estimates of general government spending across the
entire year.
The full year marked the first time money GDP exceeded one
trillion pounds.
The drop in manufacturing in the fourth quarter was the
seventh in eight quarters, the first time that has happened.
For the full year, manufacturing output fell by 4.0 percent,
the sharpest decline since 1991.
Construction output was 7.3 percent higher in 2002 than
2001, the strongest figure since 1988.
Services output was 2.5 percent higher in 2002 than 2001,
the lowest annual increase since 1992, connected to a rapid
deceleration in telecoms and business services growth.
Government expenditure rose 4.2 percent last year, the
strongest increase since 1975.
Exports fell 2.1 percent last year, the biggest decline
since 1975.

Zahlen wie die Erwartungen.

Negativer Beigeschmack sind die sinkenden Exporte....

Auch hier wird fleißig gebaut. Vielleicht wieder einer von vielen Hinweisen in den letzten Tagen, daß in Europa die Zinsen vielleicht doch gesenkt werden sollten.

US MBA Market Index Rises 5.5% To 1142.3 From 1082.8
US MBA Mortgage Survey: Snapshot

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America`s weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Week : Market Purchase Refi Market Purchase Refi
Ending : Index Index Index Index Index Index
2/21/03 1050.6 304.5 5390.6 1142.3 309.0 5989.6
2/14/03 1100.5 354.8 5438.1 1082.8 334.1 5438.1
2/07/03 1087.4 333.9 5470.3 1083.1 328.8 5470.3
1/31/03 1128.8 356.4 5621.6 1141.4 371.1 5621.6
1/24/03 1026.3 296.4 5272.3 1171.2 365.5 5858.1
1/17/03 1053.5 300.5 5433.4 1100.3 355.3 5433.4
1/10/03 1093.1 286.2 5786.4 1154.3 358.0 5786.4
1/03/03 775.1 201.7 4109.8 1182.3 376.2 5871.1
12/27/02 527.5 148.9 2729.3 950.9 332.4 4548.8
12/20/02 829.8 267.4 4101.0 908.3 359.4 4101.0
12/13/02 906.1 286.9 4507.6 985.5 379.9 4507.6
12/06/02 794.8 279.3 3793.8 862.7 358.8 3793.8
11/29/02 613.7 219.6 2906.3 939.0 386.6 4151.9
11/22/02 1085.8 297.2 5672.3 1131.0 350.2 5672.3

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Seasonally Adjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1142.3 1082.8 5.5 1171.2 551.1
Purchase 309.0 334.1 -7.5 365.5 315.5
Refi 5989.6 5438.1 10.1 5858.1 1921.6
Fixed-Rate 1037.7 984.8 5.4 1064.9 493.5
ARM 3331.9 3134.6 6.3 3398.2 1756.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1665.0 1558.1 6.9 1697.3 738.7
Purchase 434.5 471.1 -7.8 515.8 410.0
Refi 6667.7 5977.6 11.5 6501.1 2075.0
Fixed-Rate 1502.4 1407.7 6.7 1530.6 649.6
ARM 4998.5 4640.8 7.7 5113.7 2565.4
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 270.1 289.8 -6.8 293.4 238.1
Purchase 129.7 138.5 -6.4 150.7 180.5
Refi 2412.0 2598.5 -7.2 2470.9 1118.1
Fixed-Rate 263.7 280.2 -5.9 289.8 233.3
ARM 409.3 498.6 -17.9 373.4 343.6

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Unadjusted Data

Unadjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1050.6 1100.5 -4.5 1026.3 521.9
Purchase 304.5 354.8 -14.2 296.4 314.3
Refi 5390.6 5438.1 -0.9 5272.3 1729.4
Fixed-Rate 954.4 1000.9 -4.6 933.1 467.4
ARM 3064.3 3185.7 -3.8 2977.7 1663.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1528.3 1581.5 -3.4 1490.7 696.5
Purchase 428.2 500.3 -14.4 418.3 408.5
Refi 6000.9 5977.6 0.4 5851.0 1867.5
Fixed-Rate 1379.1 1428.9 -3.5 1344.3 612.5
ARM 4588.2 4710.6 -2.6 4491.3 2418.9
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 253.5 297.8 -14.9 251.4 230.7
Purchase 127.8 147.1 -13.1 122.2 179.8
Refi 2170.8 2598.5 -16.5 2223.8 1006.3
Fixed-Rate 247.5 287.9 -14.0 248.3 226.0
ARM 384.2 512.4 -25.0 320.0 332.9

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Comparisons

Percent Change In Percent Change
No. Of Applications In Dollar Value Avg

Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Loan

($000)
Total -4.5 2.4 101.3 -6.5 2.2 102.1 183.2

Purchase -14.2 2.7 -3.1 -14.2 4.4 1.6 193.1

Refi -0.9 2.2 211.7 -3.5 1.5 210.1 180.0

Fixed-Rate -4.6 2.3 104.2 -6.8 1.3 109.8 167.6

ARM -3.8 2.9 84.3 -5.4 5.8 77.0 284.9

Conventional -3.4 2.5 119.4 -5.9 2.3 113.7 188.6

Purchase -14.4 2.4 4.8 -14.4 4.2 6.8 204.9

Refi 0.4 2.6 221.3 -2.8 1.7 216.0 183.8

Fixed-Rate -3.5 2.6 125.2 -6.1 1.4 125.9 171.9

ARM -2.6 2.2 89.7 -4.9 5.5 78.8 291.1

Government -14.9 0.8 9.9 -14.9 1.6 12.5 129.7

Purchase -13.1 4.6 -28.9 -12.6 5.5 -24.8 136.4

Refi -16.5 -2.4 115.7 -17.1 -2.1 120.4 123.8

Fixed-Rate -14.0 -0.3 9.5 -14.1 0.3 11.4 128.0

ARM -25.0 20.1 15.4 -22.9 18.5 26.0 154.2

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Current Interest Rates

Change in Contract Rate (bps)

Effective Total Contract 1 Week 4 Weeks 1 Year

Rate Points Rate Ago Ago Ago
30-Year Fixed 5.95 1.49 5.65 -4 -7 -109
15-Year Fixed 5.37 1.43 5.02 -8 -13 -117
7-Year Balloon 5.31 1.27 4.99 -18 -11 -124
5-Year Balloon 4.69 0.92 4.46 -7 -20 -130
ARM, 1-Yr Tsy 3.85 1.00 3.60 -1 -1 -135
FHA 203 (b) 6.04 1.06 5.87 -4 -7 -97
All rates except FHA 203(b) are for 80% loan-to-value mortgage.

Wahnsinn. Das hätte ich nicht erwartet, von meiner Seite hierzu einige

.

Wenn unsere Regierung die Wirtschaft nicht bestrafen würde, dann würde es hierzulande auch mehr Investitionen geben.

reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Fed`s Greenspan-No need to raise bank insurance cap
WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday there was need for some
reforms to the U.S. deposit insurance system but maintained his
opposition to raising the government guarantee on bank accounts
above $100,000.
"Several aspects of the deposit insurance system need
reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added.

hmm hat da jemand kalte Füße???

Damit ist das Risiko für die Banken aber wohl auch nicht kleiner geworden, sondern eher größer..." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">

Hier wird fleißig am Wahrenkorb herummanipuliert. Sowas gefällt mir leider rein ganz und gar nicht. Hier will man wohl die Vergleichbarkeit zu den Vorjahreszahlen Stück für Stück aufweichen.

Verbraucherpreisindex im Februar 2003: + 1,3 % zum Februar 2002
Wie das Statistische Bundesamt mitteilt, wird sich der Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland im Februar 2003 – auf Grund einer Schätzung nach vorliegenden Ergebnissen aus sechs Bundesländern – gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,3% (Januar 2003: + 1,1%) erhöhen.
Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ergibt sich damit eine Veränderung von + 0,5%.
Ausschlaggebend für diese Entwicklung sind im Wesentlichen die starken Preiserhöhungen bei Heizöl und Kraftstoffen.
Der für europäische Zwecke berechnete harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland wird sich im Februar 2003 gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,2% erhöhen (Januar 2003: + 0,9%). Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ist dies eine Steigerung um 0,5%.

Man hatte hier nur eine Steigerung von +0,9% erwartet, so daß eine geringer als erwartete Preissteigerung schon positiv zu werten ist. Oder sagen wir mal der Markt hat hier vielleicht eine Abwärtsbewegung vorausgenommen.

Aus meiner Sicht sind die Zahlen zusammen mit den anderen leider doch negativ, auch wenn sie besser als die Erwartungen waren. Die Dinge kosten nun halt 0,5% mehr, und die Löhne sind zudem 0,4% weniger im Q4 gewesen. Das Resultat ist zwangsläufig eine schrumpfende Konjunktur.

Italy 2002 retail sales rise 1.8 pct from 2001
ROME, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Official Italian statistics agency
ISTAT on Wednesday gave the following data for retail sales in
medium and large firms in Italy in December.
ISTAT added that retail sales in 2002 climbed 1.8 percent
from 2001 driven by a 2.7 percent rise in the sale of food
products and a 4.0 percent rise in sales at major distributors.

Dec 02 Nov 02 Dec 01
Index (1995=100) 172.9 128.7 169.0
Yr/yr change 2.3 1.8 1.6
Mth/mth change 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 (r)
Major distributors y/y 4.1 5.5 4.9
Smaller distributors y/y 1.8 1.0 0.9

r = denotes a revision

Gute Zahlen aus dem Dezember für Italien. Gut aber halt alt aus dem Dezember...

UK Q4 GDP growth unrevised at 0.4 pct QQ
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics issued the following, seasonally adjusted data on
gross domestic product (GDP). (Index base 1995, constant prices,
previous estimates in brackets):

Q4 02 Q3 02
GDP AT MARKET PRICES (constant prices)
Pct change q/q 0.4 (0.4) 0.9 (0.9)
Pct change y/y 2.1 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1)
Index 120.5 (120.7) 120.1 (120.3)

IMPLIED GDP DEFLATOR AT MARKET PRICES
Pct change q/q 1.0 0.3
Pct change y/y 2.9 3.3
Index 121.9 120.6

GDP AT MARKET PRICES (CONSTANT PRICES)
2002 2001
Pct change yr/yr 1.6 (1.7) 2.0

MARKET FORECAST: Q/Q Y/Y
GDP AT MARKET PRICES 0.4 2.2

OUTPUT DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Agriculture etc -1.0 2.1
Mining/quarrying inc oil 2.1 -0.5
Manufacturing sector -0.9 -1.5*
Electricity, gas, water -1.6 0.4
Total production -0.7 -1.2
Construction 1.1 7.1
Distribution,hotels,catering 0.5 (0.8) 3.3 (3.8)
Transport and communication 0.9 2.8
Business, services & finance 0.6 1.9
Government and other svs 0.3 2.3
Total service industries 0.5** (0.6)2.4 (2.2)

EXPENDITURE DATA (constant prices)
Q/Q Y/Y
Households 1.0 3.6
Non-profit institutions 0.8 4.1
General government 0.8 2.3
Gross fixed capital form. -0.6 -3.3
Total 1.3 2.8
Total exports -3.4 -0.3
Total final expenditure 0.2 2.1
less total imports -0.3 2.2
GDP at market prices 0.4 2.1

Q4 Q3
Changes in inventories (mln stg) 964 -632
Of which: other industries 1,575 23

INCOME DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Compensation of employees 1.2 4.3
Gross operating surplus 2.0 5.6
of corporations

* least negative since Q2 2001, when it was also -1.5 pct.
** lowest since Q1 2002, when it was +0.2 pct.

NOTE - The ONS said the main reason for the downward
revision to the Q4 yr/yr growth rate was weaker output from the
hotel and restaurant sector across all four quarters of the
year.
The downward revision to the full year 2002 growth rate was
due to lower estimates of general government spending across the
entire year.
The full year marked the first time money GDP exceeded one
trillion pounds.
The drop in manufacturing in the fourth quarter was the
seventh in eight quarters, the first time that has happened.
For the full year, manufacturing output fell by 4.0 percent,
the sharpest decline since 1991.
Construction output was 7.3 percent higher in 2002 than
2001, the strongest figure since 1988.
Services output was 2.5 percent higher in 2002 than 2001,
the lowest annual increase since 1992, connected to a rapid
deceleration in telecoms and business services growth.
Government expenditure rose 4.2 percent last year, the
strongest increase since 1975.
Exports fell 2.1 percent last year, the biggest decline
since 1975.

Zahlen wie die Erwartungen.

Negativer Beigeschmack sind die sinkenden Exporte....

Auch hier wird fleißig gebaut. Vielleicht wieder einer von vielen Hinweisen in den letzten Tagen, daß in Europa die Zinsen vielleicht doch gesenkt werden sollten.

US MBA Market Index Rises 5.5% To 1142.3 From 1082.8
US MBA Mortgage Survey: Snapshot

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America`s weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Week : Market Purchase Refi Market Purchase Refi
Ending : Index Index Index Index Index Index
2/21/03 1050.6 304.5 5390.6 1142.3 309.0 5989.6
2/14/03 1100.5 354.8 5438.1 1082.8 334.1 5438.1
2/07/03 1087.4 333.9 5470.3 1083.1 328.8 5470.3
1/31/03 1128.8 356.4 5621.6 1141.4 371.1 5621.6
1/24/03 1026.3 296.4 5272.3 1171.2 365.5 5858.1
1/17/03 1053.5 300.5 5433.4 1100.3 355.3 5433.4
1/10/03 1093.1 286.2 5786.4 1154.3 358.0 5786.4
1/03/03 775.1 201.7 4109.8 1182.3 376.2 5871.1
12/27/02 527.5 148.9 2729.3 950.9 332.4 4548.8
12/20/02 829.8 267.4 4101.0 908.3 359.4 4101.0
12/13/02 906.1 286.9 4507.6 985.5 379.9 4507.6
12/06/02 794.8 279.3 3793.8 862.7 358.8 3793.8
11/29/02 613.7 219.6 2906.3 939.0 386.6 4151.9
11/22/02 1085.8 297.2 5672.3 1131.0 350.2 5672.3

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Seasonally Adjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1142.3 1082.8 5.5 1171.2 551.1
Purchase 309.0 334.1 -7.5 365.5 315.5
Refi 5989.6 5438.1 10.1 5858.1 1921.6
Fixed-Rate 1037.7 984.8 5.4 1064.9 493.5
ARM 3331.9 3134.6 6.3 3398.2 1756.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1665.0 1558.1 6.9 1697.3 738.7
Purchase 434.5 471.1 -7.8 515.8 410.0
Refi 6667.7 5977.6 11.5 6501.1 2075.0
Fixed-Rate 1502.4 1407.7 6.7 1530.6 649.6
ARM 4998.5 4640.8 7.7 5113.7 2565.4
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 270.1 289.8 -6.8 293.4 238.1
Purchase 129.7 138.5 -6.4 150.7 180.5
Refi 2412.0 2598.5 -7.2 2470.9 1118.1
Fixed-Rate 263.7 280.2 -5.9 289.8 233.3
ARM 409.3 498.6 -17.9 373.4 343.6

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Unadjusted Data

Unadjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1050.6 1100.5 -4.5 1026.3 521.9
Purchase 304.5 354.8 -14.2 296.4 314.3
Refi 5390.6 5438.1 -0.9 5272.3 1729.4
Fixed-Rate 954.4 1000.9 -4.6 933.1 467.4
ARM 3064.3 3185.7 -3.8 2977.7 1663.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1528.3 1581.5 -3.4 1490.7 696.5
Purchase 428.2 500.3 -14.4 418.3 408.5
Refi 6000.9 5977.6 0.4 5851.0 1867.5
Fixed-Rate 1379.1 1428.9 -3.5 1344.3 612.5
ARM 4588.2 4710.6 -2.6 4491.3 2418.9
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 253.5 297.8 -14.9 251.4 230.7
Purchase 127.8 147.1 -13.1 122.2 179.8
Refi 2170.8 2598.5 -16.5 2223.8 1006.3
Fixed-Rate 247.5 287.9 -14.0 248.3 226.0
ARM 384.2 512.4 -25.0 320.0 332.9

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Comparisons

Percent Change In Percent Change
No. Of Applications In Dollar Value Avg

Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Loan

($000)
Total -4.5 2.4 101.3 -6.5 2.2 102.1 183.2

Purchase -14.2 2.7 -3.1 -14.2 4.4 1.6 193.1

Refi -0.9 2.2 211.7 -3.5 1.5 210.1 180.0

Fixed-Rate -4.6 2.3 104.2 -6.8 1.3 109.8 167.6

ARM -3.8 2.9 84.3 -5.4 5.8 77.0 284.9

Conventional -3.4 2.5 119.4 -5.9 2.3 113.7 188.6

Purchase -14.4 2.4 4.8 -14.4 4.2 6.8 204.9

Refi 0.4 2.6 221.3 -2.8 1.7 216.0 183.8

Fixed-Rate -3.5 2.6 125.2 -6.1 1.4 125.9 171.9

ARM -2.6 2.2 89.7 -4.9 5.5 78.8 291.1

Government -14.9 0.8 9.9 -14.9 1.6 12.5 129.7

Purchase -13.1 4.6 -28.9 -12.6 5.5 -24.8 136.4

Refi -16.5 -2.4 115.7 -17.1 -2.1 120.4 123.8

Fixed-Rate -14.0 -0.3 9.5 -14.1 0.3 11.4 128.0

ARM -25.0 20.1 15.4 -22.9 18.5 26.0 154.2

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Current Interest Rates

Change in Contract Rate (bps)

Effective Total Contract 1 Week 4 Weeks 1 Year

Rate Points Rate Ago Ago Ago
30-Year Fixed 5.95 1.49 5.65 -4 -7 -109
15-Year Fixed 5.37 1.43 5.02 -8 -13 -117
7-Year Balloon 5.31 1.27 4.99 -18 -11 -124
5-Year Balloon 4.69 0.92 4.46 -7 -20 -130
ARM, 1-Yr Tsy 3.85 1.00 3.60 -1 -1 -135
FHA 203 (b) 6.04 1.06 5.87 -4 -7 -97
All rates except FHA 203(b) are for 80% loan-to-value mortgage.

Wahnsinn. Das hätte ich nicht erwartet, von meiner Seite hierzu einige

.

Wenn unsere Regierung die Wirtschaft nicht bestrafen würde, dann würde es hierzulande auch mehr Investitionen geben.

reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Fed`s Greenspan-No need to raise bank insurance cap
WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday there was need for some
reforms to the U.S. deposit insurance system but maintained his
opposition to raising the government guarantee on bank accounts
above $100,000.
"Several aspects of the deposit insurance system need
reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added.

hmm hat da jemand kalte Füße???

Damit ist das Risiko für die Banken aber wohl auch nicht kleiner geworden, sondern eher größer..." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Statistisches Bundesamt
Pressemitteilung vom 26. Februar 2003
Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland auf Basis 2000=100

WIESBADEN – Nach Mitteilung des Statistischen Bundesamtes ist der Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland (bisher: Preisindex für die Lebenshaltung aller privaten Haushalte in Deutschland) im Januar 2003 gegenüber Januar 2002 um 1,1% gestiegen. Im Vergleich zum Dezember 2002 blieb der Index unverändert.

Gleichzeitig mit den Zahlen für Januar 2003 legt das Statistische Bundesamt die Ergebnisse der Neuberechnung des Verbraucherpreisindex auf Basis der Verbrauchsgewohnheiten des Jahres 2000 vor. Johann Hahlen, Präsident des Statistischen Bundesamtes, hat heute in einer Pressekonferenz in Frankfurt/Main die wichtigsten Inhalte und Ergebnisse der Revision vorgestellt.

Bei der Beurteilung der Ergebnisse für den Januar 2003 ist u.a. folgendes zu beachten:

–Überdurchschnittliche Preisrückgänge im Vorjahresvergleich sind vor allem bei Nahrungsmitteln und alkoholfreien Getränken zu verzeichnen (– 2,8%); hier wirken sich insbesondere die Preisrückgänge bei Obst (– 3,3%) und Gemüse (– 18,4%) aus. Vor Jahresfrist waren die Preise für Obst und Gemüse auf Grund einer ungewöhnlichen Kältewelle in Südeuropa stark gestiegen. Dies macht sich in der aktuellen Jahresteuerungsrate als Basiseffekt bemerkbar. Ohne Obst und Gemüse betrug die Teuerungsrate im Januar 2003 1,3%.

–Erheblich teurer wurden im Jahresvergleich Tabakwaren (+ 7,4%). Hier wirkt sich die Tabaksteuererhöhung zum 1. Januar 2003 aus.

–Am stärksten haben sich im Vorjahresvergleich Heizöl (+ 17,3%) und Kraftstoffe (+ 12,8%) verteuert. Dies ist auf die Erhöhung der Ökosteuer zum 1. Januar 2003, insbesondere aber auf die starke Verteuerung von Rohöl in den letzten Wochen zurückzuführen.

–Im Gesamtindex sind die Auswirkungen der Steuererhöhungen nicht als Preissprung erkennbar, da zu Jahresbeginn 2002 Steuererhöhungen in gleichem Umfang erfolgt waren.

–Im Vormonatsvergleich wirken sich saisonale Einflüsse bei den Pauschalreisen aus. Dies liegt daran, dass die Saisonhöhepunkte Weihnachten und Silvester im Dezember-Index durchschlagen. Gegenüber Dezember 2002 sind Pauschalreisen im Berichtsmonat um 24,5% billiger. Ohne Pauschalreisen hat sich der Verbraucherpreisindex im Vormonatsvergleich um 0,7% und im Vorjahresvergleich um 1,1% erhöht.

–Im Januar-Ergebnis sind erstmals die Auswirkungen der Reform der Bahntarife berücksichtigt. Im Vergleich zum Dezember 2002 haben sich die Preise für die Personenbeförderung im Eisenbahnverkehr um 2,3% erhöht. Die Preisveränderungen im Fernverkehr (+ 3,0%) schlugen besonders zu Buche.

–Die Portosenkung für Briefe und Postkarten (– 3,5%) hat zu einer Ermäßigung des Teilindex für Postdienstleistungen im Vormonatsvergleich um 2,5% geführt.

Der für europäische Zwecke berechnete harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex (HVPI) für Deutschland hat sich im Januar 2003 gegenüber Januar 2002 um 0,9% erhöht. Im Vergleich zum Vormonat war ein Rückgang um 0,1% zu beobachten.

Verbraucherpreisindex im Februar 2003: + 1,3 % zum Februar 2002
Wie das Statistische Bundesamt mitteilt, wird sich der Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland im Februar 2003 – auf Grund einer Schätzung nach vorliegenden Ergebnissen aus sechs Bundesländern – gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,3% (Januar 2003: + 1,1%) erhöhen.
Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ergibt sich damit eine Veränderung von + 0,5%.
Ausschlaggebend für diese Entwicklung sind im Wesentlichen die starken Preiserhöhungen bei Heizöl und Kraftstoffen.
Der für europäische Zwecke berechnete harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland wird sich im Februar 2003 gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,2% erhöhen (Januar 2003: + 0,9%). Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ist dies eine Steigerung um 0,5%.

Man hatte hier nur eine Steigerung von +0,9% erwartet, so daß eine geringer als erwartete Preissteigerung schon positiv zu werten ist. Oder sagen wir mal der Markt hat hier vielleicht eine Abwärtsbewegung vorausgenommen.

Aus meiner Sicht sind die Zahlen zusammen mit den anderen leider doch negativ, auch wenn sie besser als die Erwartungen waren. Die Dinge kosten nun halt 0,5% mehr, und die Löhne sind zudem 0,4% weniger im Q4 gewesen. Das Resultat ist zwangsläufig eine schrumpfende Konjunktur.

Italy 2002 retail sales rise 1.8 pct from 2001
ROME, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Official Italian statistics agency
ISTAT on Wednesday gave the following data for retail sales in
medium and large firms in Italy in December.
ISTAT added that retail sales in 2002 climbed 1.8 percent
from 2001 driven by a 2.7 percent rise in the sale of food
products and a 4.0 percent rise in sales at major distributors.

Dec 02 Nov 02 Dec 01
Index (1995=100) 172.9 128.7 169.0
Yr/yr change 2.3 1.8 1.6
Mth/mth change 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 (r)
Major distributors y/y 4.1 5.5 4.9
Smaller distributors y/y 1.8 1.0 0.9

r = denotes a revision

Gute Zahlen aus dem Dezember für Italien. Gut aber halt alt aus dem Dezember...

UK Q4 GDP growth unrevised at 0.4 pct QQ
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics issued the following, seasonally adjusted data on
gross domestic product (GDP). (Index base 1995, constant prices,
previous estimates in brackets):

Q4 02 Q3 02
GDP AT MARKET PRICES (constant prices)
Pct change q/q 0.4 (0.4) 0.9 (0.9)
Pct change y/y 2.1 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1)
Index 120.5 (120.7) 120.1 (120.3)

IMPLIED GDP DEFLATOR AT MARKET PRICES
Pct change q/q 1.0 0.3
Pct change y/y 2.9 3.3
Index 121.9 120.6

GDP AT MARKET PRICES (CONSTANT PRICES)
2002 2001
Pct change yr/yr 1.6 (1.7) 2.0

MARKET FORECAST: Q/Q Y/Y
GDP AT MARKET PRICES 0.4 2.2

OUTPUT DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Agriculture etc -1.0 2.1
Mining/quarrying inc oil 2.1 -0.5
Manufacturing sector -0.9 -1.5*
Electricity, gas, water -1.6 0.4
Total production -0.7 -1.2
Construction 1.1 7.1
Distribution,hotels,catering 0.5 (0.8) 3.3 (3.8)
Transport and communication 0.9 2.8
Business, services & finance 0.6 1.9
Government and other svs 0.3 2.3
Total service industries 0.5** (0.6)2.4 (2.2)

EXPENDITURE DATA (constant prices)
Q/Q Y/Y
Households 1.0 3.6
Non-profit institutions 0.8 4.1
General government 0.8 2.3
Gross fixed capital form. -0.6 -3.3
Total 1.3 2.8
Total exports -3.4 -0.3
Total final expenditure 0.2 2.1
less total imports -0.3 2.2
GDP at market prices 0.4 2.1

Q4 Q3
Changes in inventories (mln stg) 964 -632
Of which: other industries 1,575 23

INCOME DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Compensation of employees 1.2 4.3
Gross operating surplus 2.0 5.6
of corporations

* least negative since Q2 2001, when it was also -1.5 pct.
** lowest since Q1 2002, when it was +0.2 pct.

NOTE - The ONS said the main reason for the downward
revision to the Q4 yr/yr growth rate was weaker output from the
hotel and restaurant sector across all four quarters of the
year.
The downward revision to the full year 2002 growth rate was
due to lower estimates of general government spending across the
entire year.
The full year marked the first time money GDP exceeded one
trillion pounds.
The drop in manufacturing in the fourth quarter was the
seventh in eight quarters, the first time that has happened.
For the full year, manufacturing output fell by 4.0 percent,
the sharpest decline since 1991.
Construction output was 7.3 percent higher in 2002 than
2001, the strongest figure since 1988.
Services output was 2.5 percent higher in 2002 than 2001,
the lowest annual increase since 1992, connected to a rapid
deceleration in telecoms and business services growth.
Government expenditure rose 4.2 percent last year, the
strongest increase since 1975.
Exports fell 2.1 percent last year, the biggest decline
since 1975.

Zahlen wie die Erwartungen.

Negativer Beigeschmack sind die sinkenden Exporte....

Auch hier wird fleißig gebaut. Vielleicht wieder einer von vielen Hinweisen in den letzten Tagen, daß in Europa die Zinsen vielleicht doch gesenkt werden sollten.

US MBA Market Index Rises 5.5% To 1142.3 From 1082.8
US MBA Mortgage Survey: Snapshot

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America`s weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Week : Market Purchase Refi Market Purchase Refi
Ending : Index Index Index Index Index Index
2/21/03 1050.6 304.5 5390.6 1142.3 309.0 5989.6
2/14/03 1100.5 354.8 5438.1 1082.8 334.1 5438.1
2/07/03 1087.4 333.9 5470.3 1083.1 328.8 5470.3
1/31/03 1128.8 356.4 5621.6 1141.4 371.1 5621.6
1/24/03 1026.3 296.4 5272.3 1171.2 365.5 5858.1
1/17/03 1053.5 300.5 5433.4 1100.3 355.3 5433.4
1/10/03 1093.1 286.2 5786.4 1154.3 358.0 5786.4
1/03/03 775.1 201.7 4109.8 1182.3 376.2 5871.1
12/27/02 527.5 148.9 2729.3 950.9 332.4 4548.8
12/20/02 829.8 267.4 4101.0 908.3 359.4 4101.0
12/13/02 906.1 286.9 4507.6 985.5 379.9 4507.6
12/06/02 794.8 279.3 3793.8 862.7 358.8 3793.8
11/29/02 613.7 219.6 2906.3 939.0 386.6 4151.9
11/22/02 1085.8 297.2 5672.3 1131.0 350.2 5672.3

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Seasonally Adjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1142.3 1082.8 5.5 1171.2 551.1
Purchase 309.0 334.1 -7.5 365.5 315.5
Refi 5989.6 5438.1 10.1 5858.1 1921.6
Fixed-Rate 1037.7 984.8 5.4 1064.9 493.5
ARM 3331.9 3134.6 6.3 3398.2 1756.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1665.0 1558.1 6.9 1697.3 738.7
Purchase 434.5 471.1 -7.8 515.8 410.0
Refi 6667.7 5977.6 11.5 6501.1 2075.0
Fixed-Rate 1502.4 1407.7 6.7 1530.6 649.6
ARM 4998.5 4640.8 7.7 5113.7 2565.4
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 270.1 289.8 -6.8 293.4 238.1
Purchase 129.7 138.5 -6.4 150.7 180.5
Refi 2412.0 2598.5 -7.2 2470.9 1118.1
Fixed-Rate 263.7 280.2 -5.9 289.8 233.3
ARM 409.3 498.6 -17.9 373.4 343.6

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Unadjusted Data

Unadjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1050.6 1100.5 -4.5 1026.3 521.9
Purchase 304.5 354.8 -14.2 296.4 314.3
Refi 5390.6 5438.1 -0.9 5272.3 1729.4
Fixed-Rate 954.4 1000.9 -4.6 933.1 467.4
ARM 3064.3 3185.7 -3.8 2977.7 1663.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1528.3 1581.5 -3.4 1490.7 696.5
Purchase 428.2 500.3 -14.4 418.3 408.5
Refi 6000.9 5977.6 0.4 5851.0 1867.5
Fixed-Rate 1379.1 1428.9 -3.5 1344.3 612.5
ARM 4588.2 4710.6 -2.6 4491.3 2418.9
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 253.5 297.8 -14.9 251.4 230.7
Purchase 127.8 147.1 -13.1 122.2 179.8
Refi 2170.8 2598.5 -16.5 2223.8 1006.3
Fixed-Rate 247.5 287.9 -14.0 248.3 226.0
ARM 384.2 512.4 -25.0 320.0 332.9

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Comparisons

Percent Change In Percent Change
No. Of Applications In Dollar Value Avg

Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Loan

($000)
Total -4.5 2.4 101.3 -6.5 2.2 102.1 183.2

Purchase -14.2 2.7 -3.1 -14.2 4.4 1.6 193.1

Refi -0.9 2.2 211.7 -3.5 1.5 210.1 180.0

Fixed-Rate -4.6 2.3 104.2 -6.8 1.3 109.8 167.6

ARM -3.8 2.9 84.3 -5.4 5.8 77.0 284.9

Conventional -3.4 2.5 119.4 -5.9 2.3 113.7 188.6

Purchase -14.4 2.4 4.8 -14.4 4.2 6.8 204.9

Refi 0.4 2.6 221.3 -2.8 1.7 216.0 183.8

Fixed-Rate -3.5 2.6 125.2 -6.1 1.4 125.9 171.9

ARM -2.6 2.2 89.7 -4.9 5.5 78.8 291.1

Government -14.9 0.8 9.9 -14.9 1.6 12.5 129.7

Purchase -13.1 4.6 -28.9 -12.6 5.5 -24.8 136.4

Refi -16.5 -2.4 115.7 -17.1 -2.1 120.4 123.8

Fixed-Rate -14.0 -0.3 9.5 -14.1 0.3 11.4 128.0

ARM -25.0 20.1 15.4 -22.9 18.5 26.0 154.2

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Current Interest Rates

Change in Contract Rate (bps)

Effective Total Contract 1 Week 4 Weeks 1 Year

Rate Points Rate Ago Ago Ago
30-Year Fixed 5.95 1.49 5.65 -4 -7 -109
15-Year Fixed 5.37 1.43 5.02 -8 -13 -117
7-Year Balloon 5.31 1.27 4.99 -18 -11 -124
5-Year Balloon 4.69 0.92 4.46 -7 -20 -130
ARM, 1-Yr Tsy 3.85 1.00 3.60 -1 -1 -135
FHA 203 (b) 6.04 1.06 5.87 -4 -7 -97
All rates except FHA 203(b) are for 80% loan-to-value mortgage.

Wahnsinn. Das hätte ich nicht erwartet, von meiner Seite hierzu einige

.

Wenn unsere Regierung die Wirtschaft nicht bestrafen würde, dann würde es hierzulande auch mehr Investitionen geben.

reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Fed`s Greenspan-No need to raise bank insurance cap
WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday there was need for some
reforms to the U.S. deposit insurance system but maintained his
opposition to raising the government guarantee on bank accounts
above $100,000.
"Several aspects of the deposit insurance system need
reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added.

hmm hat da jemand kalte Füße???

Damit ist das Risiko für die Banken aber wohl auch nicht kleiner geworden, sondern eher größer..." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">

Hier wird fleißig am Wahrenkorb herummanipuliert. Sowas gefällt mir leider rein ganz und gar nicht. Hier will man wohl die Vergleichbarkeit zu den Vorjahreszahlen Stück für Stück aufweichen.

Verbraucherpreisindex im Februar 2003: + 1,3 % zum Februar 2002
Wie das Statistische Bundesamt mitteilt, wird sich der Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland im Februar 2003 – auf Grund einer Schätzung nach vorliegenden Ergebnissen aus sechs Bundesländern – gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,3% (Januar 2003: + 1,1%) erhöhen.
Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ergibt sich damit eine Veränderung von + 0,5%.
Ausschlaggebend für diese Entwicklung sind im Wesentlichen die starken Preiserhöhungen bei Heizöl und Kraftstoffen.
Der für europäische Zwecke berechnete harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex für Deutschland wird sich im Februar 2003 gegenüber dem Februar 2002 voraussichtlich um 1,2% erhöhen (Januar 2003: + 0,9%). Im Vergleich zum Vormonat ist dies eine Steigerung um 0,5%.

Man hatte hier nur eine Steigerung von +0,9% erwartet, so daß eine geringer als erwartete Preissteigerung schon positiv zu werten ist. Oder sagen wir mal der Markt hat hier vielleicht eine Abwärtsbewegung vorausgenommen.

Aus meiner Sicht sind die Zahlen zusammen mit den anderen leider doch negativ, auch wenn sie besser als die Erwartungen waren. Die Dinge kosten nun halt 0,5% mehr, und die Löhne sind zudem 0,4% weniger im Q4 gewesen. Das Resultat ist zwangsläufig eine schrumpfende Konjunktur.

Italy 2002 retail sales rise 1.8 pct from 2001
ROME, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Official Italian statistics agency
ISTAT on Wednesday gave the following data for retail sales in
medium and large firms in Italy in December.
ISTAT added that retail sales in 2002 climbed 1.8 percent
from 2001 driven by a 2.7 percent rise in the sale of food
products and a 4.0 percent rise in sales at major distributors.

Dec 02 Nov 02 Dec 01
Index (1995=100) 172.9 128.7 169.0
Yr/yr change 2.3 1.8 1.6
Mth/mth change 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 (r)
Major distributors y/y 4.1 5.5 4.9
Smaller distributors y/y 1.8 1.0 0.9

r = denotes a revision

Gute Zahlen aus dem Dezember für Italien. Gut aber halt alt aus dem Dezember...

UK Q4 GDP growth unrevised at 0.4 pct QQ
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Office for National
Statistics issued the following, seasonally adjusted data on
gross domestic product (GDP). (Index base 1995, constant prices,
previous estimates in brackets):

Q4 02 Q3 02
GDP AT MARKET PRICES (constant prices)
Pct change q/q 0.4 (0.4) 0.9 (0.9)
Pct change y/y 2.1 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1)
Index 120.5 (120.7) 120.1 (120.3)

IMPLIED GDP DEFLATOR AT MARKET PRICES
Pct change q/q 1.0 0.3
Pct change y/y 2.9 3.3
Index 121.9 120.6

GDP AT MARKET PRICES (CONSTANT PRICES)
2002 2001
Pct change yr/yr 1.6 (1.7) 2.0

MARKET FORECAST: Q/Q Y/Y
GDP AT MARKET PRICES 0.4 2.2

OUTPUT DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Agriculture etc -1.0 2.1
Mining/quarrying inc oil 2.1 -0.5
Manufacturing sector -0.9 -1.5*
Electricity, gas, water -1.6 0.4
Total production -0.7 -1.2
Construction 1.1 7.1
Distribution,hotels,catering 0.5 (0.8) 3.3 (3.8)
Transport and communication 0.9 2.8
Business, services & finance 0.6 1.9
Government and other svs 0.3 2.3
Total service industries 0.5** (0.6)2.4 (2.2)

EXPENDITURE DATA (constant prices)
Q/Q Y/Y
Households 1.0 3.6
Non-profit institutions 0.8 4.1
General government 0.8 2.3
Gross fixed capital form. -0.6 -3.3
Total 1.3 2.8
Total exports -3.4 -0.3
Total final expenditure 0.2 2.1
less total imports -0.3 2.2
GDP at market prices 0.4 2.1

Q4 Q3
Changes in inventories (mln stg) 964 -632
Of which: other industries 1,575 23

INCOME DATA
Q/Q Y/Y
Compensation of employees 1.2 4.3
Gross operating surplus 2.0 5.6
of corporations

* least negative since Q2 2001, when it was also -1.5 pct.
** lowest since Q1 2002, when it was +0.2 pct.

NOTE - The ONS said the main reason for the downward
revision to the Q4 yr/yr growth rate was weaker output from the
hotel and restaurant sector across all four quarters of the
year.
The downward revision to the full year 2002 growth rate was
due to lower estimates of general government spending across the
entire year.
The full year marked the first time money GDP exceeded one
trillion pounds.
The drop in manufacturing in the fourth quarter was the
seventh in eight quarters, the first time that has happened.
For the full year, manufacturing output fell by 4.0 percent,
the sharpest decline since 1991.
Construction output was 7.3 percent higher in 2002 than
2001, the strongest figure since 1988.
Services output was 2.5 percent higher in 2002 than 2001,
the lowest annual increase since 1992, connected to a rapid
deceleration in telecoms and business services growth.
Government expenditure rose 4.2 percent last year, the
strongest increase since 1975.
Exports fell 2.1 percent last year, the biggest decline
since 1975.

Zahlen wie die Erwartungen.

Negativer Beigeschmack sind die sinkenden Exporte....

Auch hier wird fleißig gebaut. Vielleicht wieder einer von vielen Hinweisen in den letzten Tagen, daß in Europa die Zinsen vielleicht doch gesenkt werden sollten.

US MBA Market Index Rises 5.5% To 1142.3 From 1082.8
US MBA Mortgage Survey: Snapshot

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America`s weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Week : Market Purchase Refi Market Purchase Refi
Ending : Index Index Index Index Index Index
2/21/03 1050.6 304.5 5390.6 1142.3 309.0 5989.6
2/14/03 1100.5 354.8 5438.1 1082.8 334.1 5438.1
2/07/03 1087.4 333.9 5470.3 1083.1 328.8 5470.3
1/31/03 1128.8 356.4 5621.6 1141.4 371.1 5621.6
1/24/03 1026.3 296.4 5272.3 1171.2 365.5 5858.1
1/17/03 1053.5 300.5 5433.4 1100.3 355.3 5433.4
1/10/03 1093.1 286.2 5786.4 1154.3 358.0 5786.4
1/03/03 775.1 201.7 4109.8 1182.3 376.2 5871.1
12/27/02 527.5 148.9 2729.3 950.9 332.4 4548.8
12/20/02 829.8 267.4 4101.0 908.3 359.4 4101.0
12/13/02 906.1 286.9 4507.6 985.5 379.9 4507.6
12/06/02 794.8 279.3 3793.8 862.7 358.8 3793.8
11/29/02 613.7 219.6 2906.3 939.0 386.6 4151.9
11/22/02 1085.8 297.2 5672.3 1131.0 350.2 5672.3

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Seasonally Adjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1142.3 1082.8 5.5 1171.2 551.1
Purchase 309.0 334.1 -7.5 365.5 315.5
Refi 5989.6 5438.1 10.1 5858.1 1921.6
Fixed-Rate 1037.7 984.8 5.4 1064.9 493.5
ARM 3331.9 3134.6 6.3 3398.2 1756.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1665.0 1558.1 6.9 1697.3 738.7
Purchase 434.5 471.1 -7.8 515.8 410.0
Refi 6667.7 5977.6 11.5 6501.1 2075.0
Fixed-Rate 1502.4 1407.7 6.7 1530.6 649.6
ARM 4998.5 4640.8 7.7 5113.7 2565.4
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 270.1 289.8 -6.8 293.4 238.1
Purchase 129.7 138.5 -6.4 150.7 180.5
Refi 2412.0 2598.5 -7.2 2470.9 1118.1
Fixed-Rate 263.7 280.2 -5.9 289.8 233.3
ARM 409.3 498.6 -17.9 373.4 343.6

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Unadjusted Data

Unadjusted data for week ending 2/21/03

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Market 1050.6 1100.5 -4.5 1026.3 521.9
Purchase 304.5 354.8 -14.2 296.4 314.3
Refi 5390.6 5438.1 -0.9 5272.3 1729.4
Fixed-Rate 954.4 1000.9 -4.6 933.1 467.4
ARM 3064.3 3185.7 -3.8 2977.7 1663.1
Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 1528.3 1581.5 -3.4 1490.7 696.5
Purchase 428.2 500.3 -14.4 418.3 408.5
Refi 6000.9 5977.6 0.4 5851.0 1867.5
Fixed-Rate 1379.1 1428.9 -3.5 1344.3 612.5
ARM 4588.2 4710.6 -2.6 4491.3 2418.9
Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago

Total 253.5 297.8 -14.9 251.4 230.7
Purchase 127.8 147.1 -13.1 122.2 179.8
Refi 2170.8 2598.5 -16.5 2223.8 1006.3
Fixed-Rate 247.5 287.9 -14.0 248.3 226.0
ARM 384.2 512.4 -25.0 320.0 332.9

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Comparisons

Percent Change In Percent Change
No. Of Applications In Dollar Value Avg

Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Loan

($000)
Total -4.5 2.4 101.3 -6.5 2.2 102.1 183.2

Purchase -14.2 2.7 -3.1 -14.2 4.4 1.6 193.1

Refi -0.9 2.2 211.7 -3.5 1.5 210.1 180.0

Fixed-Rate -4.6 2.3 104.2 -6.8 1.3 109.8 167.6

ARM -3.8 2.9 84.3 -5.4 5.8 77.0 284.9

Conventional -3.4 2.5 119.4 -5.9 2.3 113.7 188.6

Purchase -14.4 2.4 4.8 -14.4 4.2 6.8 204.9

Refi 0.4 2.6 221.3 -2.8 1.7 216.0 183.8

Fixed-Rate -3.5 2.6 125.2 -6.1 1.4 125.9 171.9

ARM -2.6 2.2 89.7 -4.9 5.5 78.8 291.1

Government -14.9 0.8 9.9 -14.9 1.6 12.5 129.7

Purchase -13.1 4.6 -28.9 -12.6 5.5 -24.8 136.4

Refi -16.5 -2.4 115.7 -17.1 -2.1 120.4 123.8

Fixed-Rate -14.0 -0.3 9.5 -14.1 0.3 11.4 128.0

ARM -25.0 20.1 15.4 -22.9 18.5 26.0 154.2

US MBA Mortgage Survey: Current Interest Rates

Change in Contract Rate (bps)

Effective Total Contract 1 Week 4 Weeks 1 Year

Rate Points Rate Ago Ago Ago
30-Year Fixed 5.95 1.49 5.65 -4 -7 -109
15-Year Fixed 5.37 1.43 5.02 -8 -13 -117
7-Year Balloon 5.31 1.27 4.99 -18 -11 -124
5-Year Balloon 4.69 0.92 4.46 -7 -20 -130
ARM, 1-Yr Tsy 3.85 1.00 3.60 -1 -1 -135
FHA 203 (b) 6.04 1.06 5.87 -4 -7 -97
All rates except FHA 203(b) are for 80% loan-to-value mortgage.

Wahnsinn. Das hätte ich nicht erwartet, von meiner Seite hierzu einige

.

Wenn unsere Regierung die Wirtschaft nicht bestrafen würde, dann würde es hierzulande auch mehr Investitionen geben.

reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Fed`s Greenspan-No need to raise bank insurance cap
WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday there was need for some
reforms to the U.S. deposit insurance system but maintained his
opposition to raising the government guarantee on bank accounts
above $100,000.
"Several aspects of the deposit insurance system need
reform," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in
prepared testimony.
He said the Fed board "supports, with some modifications,
all of the recommendations the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.) made in the spring of 2001 except indexing the current
$100,000 ceiling to inflation."
Greenspan, who did not mention the current U.S. economy in
his prepared remarks, said in his judgment "neither financial
stability, nor depositors, nor depositories are being
disadvantaged by the current ceiling."
"Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net,
increase the government subsidy to depository institutions,
expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market
discipline without providing any clear public benefit," he
added.

hmm hat da jemand kalte Füße???

Damit ist das Risiko für die Banken aber wohl auch nicht kleiner geworden, sondern eher größer...

schrieb am 26.02.03 22:52:11

Beitrag Nr. 215 ()

Donnerstag: 27.2.03

08:00 DE-GfK-Konsumklimaindikator März
08:45 F-PPI
09:00 I-Handelsbilanz mit nicht EU Staaten
10:00 EU: EZB Geldvolumen Eurozone, M1, M2, M3 - Jan 2003 http://www.ecb.int/
14:30 US-Initial Jobless Claims For Feb 22 Wk zR 402K R 386K C 392K A 370K
14:30 US-Jan Durable Goods Orders zB +0.2% zCBS -0,2% zR -0,2% (revised) R +1,2% DJ +1,0% C 1,0% A 1,0%
--------Ex-Transportation zR +1,1 %
--------Ex-Defense zR -0,7% (revised)
16:00 US-DJ-BTM Business Barometer For Feb 15 Wk zB -0.1%
16:00 US-Jan New Home Sales zR 1082K zR 1043K C 1045K A 1000K
16:00 US-Jan Help-Wanted Index zR 39 zCBS 39 CBS 40 C 40 A 40
16:00 US-Chi Fed Nat Act Index Jan zR -0,49
22:30 US-Money Supply (M2) wk 17 Feb zB 10,3 Mrd. USD

Air France: PK
AXA Groupe: Q4 PK AK
Nestle: Q4
Novell: Q1 EPS: zR 0,02
GAP: Q4 EPS: zR 0,04 R 0,27
11:30 Hewlett Packard Jahres PK
16:00 US-Greenspan redet über die Alterung der Bevölkerung und deren Einfluß auf die Wirtschaft

schrieb am 27.02.03 23:03:07

Beitrag Nr. 216 ()

Nur kurz die Daten die wohl noch nicht jeder gelesen hat, die anderen dann morgen aufgearbeitet:

The DJ-BTM barometer is a weighted ten-component index designed as a coincident measure of overall economic activity.

Of the ten components, six increased and four decreased in the latest week. On an unweighted, but seasonally adjusted basis, box office receipts rose by 3.9%, for the largest increase, while lumber production fell by 1.3% for the largest decrease.

The DJ-BTM barometer includes four components from the goods producing sectors - steel, lumber, auto, and truck production - as well as electricity output, a measure of utility production, and coal production, a proxy for the mining industry. The financial sector is represented by the Mortgage Bankers Association`s purchase index, while the services sector is covered by measures of inflation-adjusted chain-store sales and by box office receipts, as well as by freight car loadings, which is also an early indicator of goods orders.

A separate DJ-BTM index of production trends, which is drawn from the six production-related components and which is statistically indexed to the Federal Reserve`s industrial production index, rose by 1.0% in the latest week after falling by 1.1% in the prior week.

Conference Board Jan Help-Wanted Index 40 Vs Dec 39" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Chicago Fed Jan Natl Activity Index +0.38; -0.62 In Dec
Chicago/National Activity:Highest Level Since Apr 2000

CHICAGO --Thanks to relatively strong production data, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved above zero in January for the first time since last July and reached its highest level since April 2000.

In January, the index climbed to 0.38, a substantial improvement from a revised -0.62 in December. Due to weakness in prior months, however, the CFNAI-MA3 three-month moving average remained well below zero at -0.19. However, that was up substantially from the revised December CFNAI-MA3 reading of -0.59.

Of the five broad data categories underlying the CFNAI, most of the positive influences in January came from the production category, although the employment category was also notable with its first positive contribution in over two years.

Industrial production increased 0.7% in January, while capacity utilization in manufacturing moved up to 73.7%. In contrast, the Institute for Supply Management`s Purchasing Manager`s Index dipped to 53.9. In total, the production category accounted for +0.23 of the monthly CFNAI in January.

In the employment category, total nonfarm payroll employment increased in January by 143,000 jobs, but the manufacturing sector still lost 16,000 jobs. The unemployment rate moved down to 5.7%. These mixed signals translate into an employment-related contribution of 0.08 to the monthly CFNAI. This represented a large improvement from the December contribution of -0.41, and was the first positive contribution since September 2000. The other three categories combined accounted for -0.07 of the monthly index.

First released in March 2001, the CFNAI is a compendium of 85 different economic indicators grouped into five broad categories. Readings below zero indicate an economy growing below its long-term trend rate, with less of a potential for rising inflationary pressures ahead. If the index is above zero, it indicates an economy expanding above trend with the potential for inflation to build.

Overall, 45 of the 85 individual indicators displayed below-average growth in January. Fifty of the 85 improved relative to December.

Table Of Chicago Fed National Activity Index Data

CFNAI and CFNAI-MA3 for the latest six months and year-ago month

Jan 03 Dec 02 Nov 02 Oct 02 Sep 02 Aug 02 | Jan 02
CFNAI |
Current +0.38 -0.62 -0.32 -0.82 -0.56 -0.50 | +0.04
Previous n/a -0.49 -0.55 -0.78 -0.57 -0.45 | +0.01
|
CFNAI-MA3 |
Current -0.19 -0.59 -0.57 -0.63 -0.31 -0.12 | -0.67
Previous n/a -0.61 -0.63 -0.60 -0.30 -0.11 | -0.70

BTM Business Barometer Up 0.4% In Feb 15 Week
BTM Barometer: Smoothed Index Dn 0.1%

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Dow Jones-Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi weekly business barometer increased by 0.4% in the week ended Feb. 15 following a 0.2% decline in the week ended Feb. 8.

A statistically smoothed version of the index was slipped by 0.1% after three straight weeks of unchanged readings.

"Not only has the pattern of business activity been choppy, but the preliminary reading for the week ending Feb. 22 is likely showing the East`s snowstorm impact, which draggged down the barometer," said Mike Niemira, senior economist at BTM, who compiles the index. "Maybe the most troubling story is that the year-over-year pace in the barometer has decelerated quite rapidly to 2.1% for the week ending Feb. 15, the weakest weekly growth since Aug. 17. The economy has clearly hit a rough spot - foreget the soft spot - which is aggravated by some major weather disruptions."

The DJ-BTM barometer is a weighted ten-component index designed as a coincident measure of overall economic activity.

Of the ten components, six increased and four decreased in the latest week. On an unweighted, but seasonally adjusted basis, box office receipts rose by 3.9%, for the largest increase, while lumber production fell by 1.3% for the largest decrease.

The DJ-BTM barometer includes four components from the goods producing sectors - steel, lumber, auto, and truck production - as well as electricity output, a measure of utility production, and coal production, a proxy for the mining industry. The financial sector is represented by the Mortgage Bankers Association`s purchase index, while the services sector is covered by measures of inflation-adjusted chain-store sales and by box office receipts, as well as by freight car loadings, which is also an early indicator of goods orders.

A separate DJ-BTM index of production trends, which is drawn from the six production-related components and which is statistically indexed to the Federal Reserve`s industrial production index, rose by 1.0% in the latest week after falling by 1.1% in the prior week.

Conference Board Jan Help-Wanted Index 40 Vs Dec 39

Das waren aus meiner Sicht mal die wichtigeren Zahlen heute, Duarable Goods waren natürlich auch wichtig. Und die waren sogar noch besser als diese Zahlen.

schrieb am 01.03.03 14:21:41

Beitrag Nr. 217 ()

Habe mich entschieden diesen Thread nicht mehr in der bisherigen Weise fortzuführen. Die abnehmenden Klicks sprechen nicht dafür.

schrieb am 02.03.03 13:43:14

Beitrag Nr. 218 ()

Die Zahlen waren gar nicht so schlecht die letzen beiden Tage der letzten Woche:

28.02.03
16:00 USA Chicago Einkaufsmanager-Index Februar 54,9 (erw. 52,5)

15:45 USA Uni Michigan Verbrauchervertrauen
Februar endg. 79,9 (erw. 79,2)

14:30 USA BIP 4. Quartal vorl. 1,4% gg Vq (erw. 1,0%)

Preis-Deflator: 1,6% gg Vq (1,8%)
12:08 EU Geschäftsklima-Index Februar Eurozone: -0,36 (erw. -0,32)

12:00 EU Wirtschaftsstimmung Februar
Eurozone: 98,2 (Vm: 98,2)
EU-15: 98,6 (Vm: 98,5)

12:00 EU Konsumentenpreis-Index Februar vorl.
Eurozone: +2,3% gg Vj (erw. 2,2%)
12:00 EU Konsumentenpreis-Index Januar endg.
Eurozone: unv. gg Vm, +2,2% gg Vj
EU-15: -0,1% gg Vm, 2,1% gg Vj
11:05 D VDMA-Aufträge Januar -1% gg Vj Nov.-Jan.: -1% gg Vj

10:00 I BIP 4. Quartal vorl. +0,4% gg Vq, +1,0% gg Vjq BIP 2002 vorl. +0,4% gg Vj

08:45 F Arbeitslosenzahlen Januar unv. gg Vm bei 9,1%

08:00 D Großhandelsumsatz Januar real 0,1% gg Vm, -0,8% gg Vj

00:50 J Industrieproduktion Januar vorl. 1,5% gg Vm, 6,8% gg Vj

00:30 J Konsumentenpreis-Index Januar endg. -0,3 gg Vm, -0,2% gg Vj

00:30 J Arbeitslosenzahlen Januar +0,2% gg Vm auf 5,5%

27.02.03
16:00 USA Hausverkäufe (Neubau) Januar 914.000 (erw. 1,05 Mio.)

14:30 USA Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter Januar +3,3% gg V (erw. 1,0%)

14:30 USA Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhile in der Woche zum 22.02.03 bei 417.000 (erw. 390.000)

11:20 F Geschäftsklima-Index Februar 97 (Vm: 97)
08:45 F Produzentenpreis-Index Januar 0,6% gg Vm, 2,1% gg Vj

schrieb am 03.03.03 07:37:14

Beitrag Nr. 219 ()

6:00 Japan: Auto Sales Feb yy +5,1% nach zuvor im Jan +3,0% yy. => Gute News.

schrieb am 03.03.03 07:50:04

Beitrag Nr. 220 ()

Zwischen 9:45 und 10:30 kommen heute die ganzen Reuters PMI, für Deutschland erwartet man (9:55 Uhr) 48,7.

Dann 14:30 USA Zahlen Einkommen (erw. +0,4% bis ?) und Ausgaben (erw. +0,2% bis +0,1%)),
und 16:00 noch US ISM Index (erw. 52,4) und US Bauausgaben (erw. +0,5%).

Wünsche einen schönen Tag.

schrieb am 03.03.03 21:52:34

Beitrag Nr. 221 ()

US Indikatoren waren heute zwar gut, aber unter den hoch gesteckten Erwartungen. Europa hatte gute Zahlen, die auch noch über den Erwartungen waren.

So langsam läßt die Angst vor dem Irak auch nach, die Bedrohung wird nun wohl auch zunehmend realistischer eingeschätzt.

schrieb am 03.03.03 22:19:47

Beitrag Nr. 222 ()

Hallo alterbekannter!

Mal ehrlich wo liegt der Sinn so viele untersch. Daten zu sammeln?

Wie fliessen diese in Dein Handelssystem ein? :confused:

Anfangs ging es Dir um "primare Daten". Was verstehst Du darunter? Für mich sind primäre Daten, diejenigen, die sich unmittelbar aus Angebot und Nachfrage ergeben - also Kurs und Handelsvolumen in der Zeit.

Das "Problem" mit den ganzen Fakten, Quartalsergebnissen, Arbeitslosenzahlen uswusf. ist, dass man nicht wissen kann wie der Markt darauf reagiert (sentiment).

Stichwort Überinformation.

Deshalb nochmal die Frage:

Wie nutzt Du die ganzen Infos für Deinen tägl. Handel? :confused:

Viele Grüsse,
Peter
http://www.TerminTrader.de/

schrieb am 04.03.03 07:39:20

Beitrag Nr. 223 ()

Termintrader die Antwort kommt heute Abend wenn ich mehr Zeit habe.

Bis dahin Zahlen von heute Morgen.

Japan Feb Monetary Base Growth 12.6% On Yr Vs Jan 13.4%
UK Nationwide Feb House Prices +0.4% MM, +24.8% YY (erwartet waren +0,7 mm).

Dann heute um 8 Uhr Einzelhandel in Deutschland erw. -0,5% mm und -2,8% yy.
EU Arbeitslosigkeit und Einzelhandel dann um 12 Uhr, ebenso wie die CBI Sales UK.
13:45 BTM UBSW Sales
14:55 Redbook und
16:00 Challenger Report

zwischendurch noch was von Allan Greenspan.

und um 0:30 ABC Money Consumer Conference

schrieb am 04.03.03 23:04:47

Beitrag Nr. 224 ()

@Termintrader ich habe Dich nicht vergessen, aber ich will Deiner Frage gerecht werden. Daher Vertagung auf Morgen.

Morgen dann:
EON Zahlen erw. Q4 Sales 10,671 Operating Profit 0,727 über das ganze Jahr Sales 36,761 und Operating Profit von 3,861
Henkel Zahlen
Degussan Analystentreffen

6 Uhr BoJ Zinsentscheidung

8 Uhr Statistiken wie Flugtourisums (watch LHA), Mineralölsteuer und Schüler an allgemeinbildenden Schulen

9:55 Deutschland RTRS Service Index FEB, um 10:00 dann selbiges für ganz Europa vorher noch 9:50 Frankreich und 9:45 Italien mit den entsprechenden Zahlen.

10:30 UK RTRS Service Index Feb erw. 51,9

12:00 EU: PPI erw. +0,8mm oder +2,0yy

13:00 US Hypotheken und Refinancing Index

16:00 US: ISM Index erw. 53,0 bzw. 53,4 bzw. 55,5 je nach Quelle.

20:00 Beige Book

Mittwoch ist ja meist zahlenarm, dieser sieht etwas anders aus, nach den mageren Zahlen vom Dienstag denke ich werden die Zahlen am Mittwoch durchaus gut zu traden sein.

schrieb am 05.03.03 19:25:22

Beitrag Nr. 225 ()

@Termintrader

Zunächst sind für mich einmal primäre Daten, Daten die von den Originalquellen her kommen, und nicht irgendwelche Analysten die irgendwas schreiben. Ich bin also durchaus in der Lage meine Entscheidungen selbst zu fällen.

Am Besten also direkt von den Quellen die die Zahlen veröffentlichen. Die meisten kann man auch direkt im Netz finden. Einige Links habe ich hier ja mal ab und zu eingestreut.

Und man kann einschätzen wie der Markt auf die Daten reagiert!!! Es gibt Erwartungen wie die Daten ausfallen. Gemäß diesen Erwartungen bewegt sich der Markt im Vorfeld. Sind die Daten dann anders, so muß der Markt korrigieren. Wichtig ist dabei nur das man die Daten auch vollständig liest. Daher habe ich sie hier meist auch mit den Unterindizes reingestellt. Diese Unterindizes geben häufig auch schon aufschluß über andere folgende Daten. Beispielsweise gibt es einige Indizes die in den Unterindizes die erwartungen der Arbeitsplatzentwicklung haben. Diese sieht man häufig dann in den wöchentlichen Daten wieder. Einige Indizes laufen mehr voraus, andere weniger, wiederum andere sind so alt, daß sie kaum noch interessieren.

Die Zahlen vom Flugtourismus beispielsweise heute haben schon Éinfluß auf TUI und LHA. Wenn ich lese daß die Menge des versteuerten Heizöls um 12,6% gesunken ist, dann hat das eine Einfluß auf die Wirtschaft.

Es gibt Zahlen die sind wichtiger, und andere sind weniger wichtig. Was Italien macht ist wengier wichtig für den Dax. Großbritannien ist auch weniger wichtig. Hingegen die Zahlen aus den USA sind sehr wichtig, auch die Zahlen aus Japan haben einen großen Einfluß, da der Dax sehr technologielastig ist.

Ansonsten ist mein `Handelssystem recht einfach` und es gibt bestimmt bessere. Weiterhin geht es immer um Verfallstage, Knock-out Scheine usw. Mir sind bei der Vielzahl der Termine die ich hier angebe meist nur wenige wichtig. Aber die Zeiten wo Termine sind, da paß ich halt meist etwas mehr auf, deshalt habe ich sie auch extra immer im Visir.

Genauere Fragen beantworte ich bei Interesse gerne.

schrieb am 05.03.03 21:06:12

Beitrag Nr. 226 ()

Morgen wird wieder ein interessanter Tag: Zahlen von MAN,VW financial Services, Circuit City Store Sales Q4, LVMH, Malmart Storesales Jan, Vivendi Universal, EON Analystentreffen (Zahlen heute waren ja nicht so toll von denen)

6 BoJ Report
8 D Erwerbstätigkeit Dez (alte Zahlen)
10 D Arbeitsmarktdaten
10:30 BoE MPC MTG Mar
12 EU BIP Q4 2002 und Forecast Q1+Q2 2003
12 BoE Zinsentscheid
13:45 ECB Zinsentscheid => Wichtig
14:30 ECB Newsconference und US Arbeitsmarktdaten und US Produktivität und Arbeitskosten => Wichtig
16:00 US Factory Orders => Wichtig
17 US Chain Store Sales März

Alles in allem ein recht wichtiger Tag.

schrieb am 07.03.03 07:42:45

Beitrag Nr. 227 ()

Heute haben die wichtigen Zahlen aus Japan erst mal den Nikkei in den Boden gestampft. Zu Recht zum ersten mal seit drei Monaten eine Zahl unter 50, genauer gesagt 44,4 für den Leading Indikator. Coincident Indicater bei 88,9 auch das erste Mal in drei Monaten!!! Das bedeutet immerhin das die aktuellen Bedingungen recht stabil sind. Lagging Indikator ist auf 33,3 gefallen.

Intel sieht die Umsätze etwas in der unteren Spanne der Erwartungen, aber nich sehr weit davon weg, eine bischen ächtzen tun hier auch die Margen. Also leicht negativer Tenor des Updates.

Dann kommen noch um 14:30 USA Nonfarm payrolls erw. 8K-40K je nach Quelle, Arbeitslosenrate 5,8-5,9% erw., Stundenlöhne +0,3% erw.
Später um 15:40 US ECRI Inflation Feb und FIBER Inflation Feb.
Dann wieder etwas wichtiger um 16:30 US ECRI Index und um 21 Uhr die US Consumentenkredite Jan mit sehr unterschiedlichen Erwartungen je nach Quelle.

Danach ein schönes Wochenende.

schrieb am 07.03.03 19:15:30

Beitrag Nr. 228 ()

Heute war wieder ein Klasse Beispiel das es sich lohnt Inidkatoren zu handeln.

schrieb am 08.03.03 17:36:55

Beitrag Nr. 229 ()

http://investments.citibank.de/germany/chartana/citi_config?…

Hier mal die Chart von Freitag mit den wichtigen Indikatoren die ich gepostet habe zur Illustration:

Zunächst kamen erst mal die Zahlen aus Japan vor Börsenbeginn, die waren nicht so toll, oder sogar eher schlecht. Wie schon geschrieben ist der Leading Inidkator von Japan auf 44,4 gefallen und damit mal wieder unter der Marke von 50 gewesen. In der Chart sieht man dieses als Downgap und zusätzlich ging es dann nach Beginn noch weiter runter.

Um 14:30 sieht man die Antwort auf die Beschäftigungszahlen, man erwartet eine Zunahme von 8 Tausend und sie nahm ab um 308 Tausend. Sie waren somit grottenschlecht. Die Antwort war damit schon mal prompt 15 Punkte runter im DAX. Dann schaute man genauer hin und sah die Stundenlöhne seigen. Ein Indiz für Inflation. Die Inflationszahlen sollten dann noch kommen um 15:40.

So war es dann auch um 15:40 war der ECRI Inflation Index bei 121,5 nach zuvor nun angehogenen Zahln von 120,3. Das bedeutet, daß die USA nun doch nicht die Deflations mehr so stark fürchten müssen. Auch bedeutete es, daß die Inflation stärker als erwartet ist. Das wiederum heißt weniger Realzinsen in den Bonds. Das wiederum das Bonds derzeit weniger attraktiv geworden sind. Die Bond fielen dann auch promt einen Punkt etwa. Bei den zum teil sehr schönen KGVs am Aktienmarkt lohnt es sich dann langfristig dort womöglich doch mehr. Folge ist der Anstieg der Aktien. Und so war es, der Dax stieg um punkt 15:40 Uhr.

Um 16:30 dann der ECRI Index der bei 119,1 lag und ganz wichtig dann um 21 Uhr die Konsumentenkredite die deutlich über den Erwartungen waren.

Zwischen drinn noch ein paar Reaktionen auf Blix und andere Events des Tages.

Indikatoren Traden kann man innerhalb von 5 min. machen, oder auch etwas den Bogen über den Tag spannen. Es funktioniert aber in der überwiegenden Anzahl der Fälle. Auch muß man sehen, daß wir uns auf einen Verfallstag zubewegen. Ziel können im Dax hier gut die 2500 sein. Wer viel Futures Tradet am Tag kann das Ziel sicherlich noch besser anhand der Set Preise aus seinen Abrechungen bestimmen.

schrieb am 08.03.03 17:37:57

Beitrag Nr. 230 ()

Hier das Bild zu dem Link von unten. Wollte es als Bild hereinstellen.

schrieb am 08.03.03 20:55:49

Beitrag Nr. 231 ()

Siehst du ein Ziel von 2500 am Montag?

Passt

Laut meine Fibonacci Analyse sollte sich der Dax bis cca 2530 bewegen(bis am Dienstag)

Am Dienstag habe ich ein Extrempunkt

Am Donnerstag ein Extrempunkt(zurück zum Boden)

Grüsse

schrieb am 08.03.03 22:02:38

Beitrag Nr. 232 ()

guter Thread

weiter so!

schrieb am 09.03.03 00:26:10

Beitrag Nr. 233 ()

@Andrada

Willkommen im Thread. Kurz was zu Andrada für die anderen Mitleser. Andrada ist excellent in Finoacci Analysen. Noch besser ist sie fast in dem Erkennen von Ross Hacken usw...

Das nur weil viele Leser sie durch Posting #231 nicht unbedingt einschätzen können.

Andrada geht also mehr nach Charts und weniger stark nach Indikatoren. Andradas stärke sind Tagesziele oder Wochenziele, die zum Teil in erstaunlicher Genauigkeit von +/- 10 Daxpunkten getroffen werden. Schwächen sind hingegen die Einschätzung von Indikatoren.

Kurz ich schätze Andrada sehr für die Kursziele und Fibonacci Retracements.

Nun zur Frage, da muß man sich schon ein wenig die kommenden Zahlen für Montag und Dienstag anschauen. Deutsche Telekom ist schon ein Schwergewicht im Dax, EADS hat keinen Einfluß auf den DAX. (EADS ein wenig vielleicht auf Daimler, aber nicht bedeutend viel). Die Zahlen zur Stahl- und Eisenproduktion sind da noch ganz interessant für Thyssen-Krupp. Daimler hatte ja ganz gute Autoabsatzzahlen letzte Woche, mit glaube +6% gegenüber den anderen die etwas schwach auf der Brust waren. Weniger Autos, weniger Stahl. Die Rüstungszahlen sind auch zurückgegangen, somit sollte Stahl nicht zu gut aussehehen. Telekom ist aus meiner Sicht weiter ein Looser mittelfristig, da der Sättigungsgrad von Handys schon recht hoch ist. Auch wird die schon sehr lange herausgezögerte Öffnung des Ortsnetzmonopols sich weiter negativ auswirken. Auf der anderen Seite waren andere Telekomanbieter in Europa recht stabil. Mal sehen ob die 16,199 bei der DTE Montag erfüllt erfüllt werden können. EADS müßte gegen 10 Uhr kommen. (Erw. 937 Mio. NET)

Um 10:30 kommen dann Zahlen aus Großbitannien zu den Produzentenpreisen. Und die fast wichtigsten Zahlen für den Tag kommen dann um 17 Uhr aus Amerika mit dem K.C. Fed Zahlen zum verarbeitenden Gewerbe für Februar. Dieser Index war zuvor bei 14.

Das sind erst mal meine Ansichten für Montag. Dienstag kommen dann noch mal Zahlen von Dax Unternehmen wie VW und Adidas, indirekt für Lufthansa (Traffic), Zahlen zum Einzelhandel und Großhandel USA, Baugewerbe EU, Großbritannien einige Zahlen, Industrieproduktion Deutschland (die ich ja noch nicht so Boomen sehe, in Schröder Country), und noch ein paar andere Indizes.

So Andrada nun zu der Frage wo wir am Dienstag stehen. Es gibt immer mögliche Szenarien, aber wie soll ich heute wissen, wie die Zahlen dann tatsächlich kommen? Für mich ist das ein wenig zu viel des Philosophierens mich da jetzt schon ohne die Zahlen festlegen zu wollen. Die Zahlen bestimmen den Weg. Aber die Ziele kann man dann durchaus mit Deiner Analyse abstufen.

@sphere

Danke für die Blumen. Leider kann ich nicht mehr die Infos realtime posten, da ich anderweitig arbeite. Prinzipiell glaube ich an den Markt, auch wenn meine Erfahrung mich gelehrt hat, das dieser vorne und hinten manipuliert wird.

Was mir daher am meisten fehlt, aufgrund meiner Abwesenheit vom Markt, ist der ablaufende Film in der Markttiefe zum Erkennen von Programmen und gemachten Trends usw.

So das war nun auch schon der Fahrplan im groben für Montag.

schrieb am 10.03.03 21:30:39

Beitrag Nr. 234 ()

@andrada sorry das die Zahlen nicht für Dein Szenario waren.

Am Morgen ging es schon mies los mit dem Bericht der Bank of Japan. Tenor ist das die USA keine guten Indikatoren haben, ohne den Aufschwung in den USA wird er in Japan auch nur sehr schwer kommen....

Telekom zwar mit EBITDA von 16,3 Mrd. (erw. 16,199 Mrd.) doch leider ein Nettoverlust von -24,6 Mrd. Die Wertberichtigungen, Abschreibungen und dazu die Pensionsrücklagen waren einfach grottenmies.

EADS mit -299 Mio. Nettoverlust nach noch zuvor 937 Mio. Nettogewinn ist ohne Frage auch grottenschlecht.

Zur Stahl- und Eisenproduktion mit -8,2% bzw. -5,2% gegenüber dem Vormonat brauche ich wohl keine Worte zu verlieren. Mehr als mies.

Außenhandel von Deutschland mit anderen Länder ist auch so eine Frage. China ist uns wohl gesonnen. Transrapid läßt grüßen, aber Japan und USA kaufen weniger von uns...

Großbritannien war ganz mies dran mit den Zahlen heute, die Outputpreise steigen nicht so wie die Input Preise beim PPI. Folglich werden die Margen kleiner. Dazu waren die Inputpreise deutlich über den Erwartungen. Viel miese News auf einmal.

Na und dann noch der Kansas Citiy Index des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes der einfach schlecht war mit nur noch 8 gegenüber zuvor 14.

Es war also wieder keine Kunst heute mit Puts Geld zu verdienen.

schrieb am 10.03.03 21:43:43

Beitrag Nr. 235 ()

Dienstag stehen an:

D-Lufthansa Verkehrsaufkommen im Februar

Im Laufe des Tages ist glaube ich auch noch eine Konferenz der OPEC!!!

8:00 D-Beschäftigte und Umsatz im Versandhandel (Amazon läßt grüßen)

8:00 D-Leistungsbilanz/Handelsbilanz
8:45 F-Hausbaubeginne
8:50 F-GDP 2002 verläufig
10:00 D-VW Newskonferenz und Jahreszahlen 2002 heute
10:00 D-Adidas Earningsconference
10:30 UK-Industireproduktion, verarbeitendes Gewerbe, Handelsbilanz
12:00 D-Industireproduktionsindex Januar
13:45 US-BTM-UBSW Sales
14:45 US-Redbook Retail Sales
16:00 US-Großhandleslagerbestände Janaur (wichtig!!!)
16:00 US-Richmond Fed shipments und service revenues (wichitg!!!)
18:00 US-Chi Fed Midwest Index Jan
0:30 US-ABC/Money consumer conference
0:50 J-Leistungsbilanz

Viel Glück beim traden.

schrieb am 10.03.03 22:05:45

Beitrag Nr. 236 ()

Kurze Ergänzung für Morgen - Erwartungen:
D-Leisungsbilanz +3,7 Mrd. EUR und Handelsbilanz +9,7 Mrd. EUR
D-Industrieproduktion Jan +1,6% mm
US-Großhandelslagerbestände Jan +0,2 bis +0,3 je nach Quelle.

schrieb am 11.03.03 21:35:13

Beitrag Nr. 237 ()

Zahlen waren nicht so toll für Deutschland, aber USA hat immerhin +1% bei den Großhandlesumsätzen verzeichnen können.

schrieb am 11.03.03 22:46:32

Beitrag Nr. 238 ()

Die entscheidende Nachricht des Tages kommt von der Opec, die den Ölpreis gerne wieder unter 28 USD sehen wollen.

schrieb am 12.03.03 07:27:25

Beitrag Nr. 239 ()

Wichtige News kommen heute morgen:

Japan war schon: Japan Jan Core Machinery Orders Up 7.0% On Month (auch die Kommentare dazu waren ganz gut)

Dann 8 Uhr heute Deutsche Großhandelspreise und Auftragseingänge (hier Basispreisumstellung!!!). 8:45 Frankreich mit Industrieproduktion und 10 Uhr VDMA Konferenz. 13 Uhr USA mit Hypothekenmarkt, vorsicht hier wegen der miesen Kommentare von gestern über Fannie mae und Freddie mac. 14:30 Dann US Tradebalance, und ganz wichtig für die Rohstofftrader 16:30 das American Petroleum Institute mit dem Report. Zusätzlich wohl leicht positives Sentiment durch die Cebit Eröffnung.

Gute Gewinne wünsche ich allen.

schrieb am 12.03.03 21:15:39

Beitrag Nr. 240 ()

Heute ist wieder ein typischer Tag des Indikatorentradings gewesen, die Indikatoren haben am Tagesende wieder gewonnen.

US Tradebalance besser als erwartet und besser als zuvor. Hypotheken boooomen (hoffe nur das da nichts platzt...).

Deutschland hat vorsichtshalber die wichtigen Daten gleich um eine Woche verschoben. Da wollen sich gerade eine Statistik mit neumen Basispreis bringen, und klapp nicht mal das. Nun soll man nur noch bei 91 zurückgehen könen in den Daten, was schlicht ein Unding ist. Somit ist auch die Vergleichbarkeit zur Ära Kohl am Anfang nicht mehr gegeben. (Cooler Schachzug oder?). Dazu ist es nicht der erste Indikator wo man das macht...

Ansosten haben die Ammis weniger Ölreserven und die Rafinerien arbeiten mehr. Folglich braucht die Wirtschaft mehr Energy. Gutes Zeichen, nur kostet das aktuell leider recht viel die Energie.

Bananen und Tomaten sind teurer und noch ein paar andere belanglose Dinge gab es auch noch....

Die beiden letzten Tage der Woche werden dann später aufgearbeitet.

schrieb am 15.03.03 16:28:12

Beitrag Nr. 241 ()

Leider war ich mal zwei entscheidende Tage nicht da, aber halb so schlimm, die nächste Chance kommt bestimmt.

Zusammenfassend läßt sich sagen, daß die Aktienmärkte schön weiter vom Ölpreis (Chart siehe unten) und der Cosa nostra bestimmt werden. Kaum fällt Schröder um, bzw. Struck mit ihm, indem sie nun auch humanitäre Hilfe im Angriffsfall von den Amerikanern zusichern. Frag mich warum die Herren noch an der Macht sind, aber solange die mit den `übergeordneten` Weltstrukturen kooperieren, haben sie wohl noch eine Gnadenfrist bekommen.

Zu den Indikatoren kurz vom Donnerstag:

Erfreulich waren hier entlich mal steigende Großhandelspreise in Japan, mit der Hoffung auf eine milder werdende Deflation in Asien. Die Arbeitsmarktdaten aus Amerika waren so ganz gut in den Erwartungen, somit waren die vorangegangenen Kursabfälle zu stark gewesen. Die Importpreise sind darüber hinaus deutlich weniger stark als erwartet gestiegen, was den Dollar wieder etwas gestärkt hat. Schön auch die Korrektur der Retail Sales Zahlen aus den USA vom Janaur. Folglich fielen zwar die Feb Zahlen dann etwas schlechter aus, dennoch war das Niveau auf dem man herauskam ein höheres als man erwartete. Von der SEMI gab es dann noch Zahlen das die Umsätze der Chipequipmentindustire schon im Jahresvergleich zulegen konnten mit +17,2%, allerdings war im Vergleich zum Dezember der Januarumsatz 7% weniger.

Freitag die CPI Daten in dem Rahmen des normalen für Deutschland, die EU Zahlungsbilanz im Q4 war aber nicht ganz so toll, so daß der Dollar weiter Grund zum steigen hatte. Die Produktionsdaten der USA waren eigenlich allesamt in den Erwartungen, auch der ECRI war parktisch unverändert. Aus meiner Sicht waren die Daten Bankdarlehn etwas dämpfend, da die Consumentenkredite zurückgingen, ebenso wie die Geschäftskredite. Auf der anderen Seite sind die derzeit so überschuldet die Ammis, das diese Entwicklung wohl eher zu begrüßen ist. Die Hypothekendarlehn steigen allerdings weiter wie verrückt. Die Ammis nutzen die günstigen Zinsen offenbar doch gut aus. Europa hat diese niedrigen Zinsen leider nicht. Dafür haben wir aber auch nicht ganz so viele Schulden.

Soweit also für diese Woche. Hoffe ihr hattet gute Gewinne.

Anmerkung zu dem hier geführten Depot es war zwischenzeitlich sogar im Plus. Besonders hat mich das Volumen in der Aktie beeindruckt. (Derzeit nur hier im offiziellen Depot die Infineon. Chart siehe unten.) So einen starken Volumenanstieg gab es in kaum einer anderen Aktie im Dax in den letzten zwei Tagen. Preisentwicklung der DRAM ist weiterhin in Ordung was die Spotmärkte betrifft.

schrieb am 16.03.03 12:06:27

Beitrag Nr. 242 ()

Montag folgende Zahlen:

Schering Analystenkonferenz
8:00 D Baugenehmigungen Jan und Bildungsbudget 2001 (Datum stimmt)
10:00 D RWE Bilanz PK und Analysten PK
12:00 EU Defizit und Verschludung
14:00 US NY Fed Manuf Survey Mar => als vorlaufender Indikator
19:00 US NAHB Index Mar => für die Häusebauer

schrieb am 16.03.03 12:14:01

Beitrag Nr. 243 ()

Für die Woche noch recht wichtig zu wissen es stehen an die Zinsentscheidung in den USA, Hexensabbat am Freitag und in der Woche BAS, LHA, ALT, (BMW) und ALV Zahlen. In den USA sind wichtig an Unternehmen diese Woche ORACLE, MU, PALM, Nike und Lehman Brothers, die ja zum teil ein paar in Sympathie mitlaufende Aktien im Dax haben.

schrieb am 16.03.03 18:22:47

Beitrag Nr. 244 ()

Um 20:30 ist eine Pressekonferenz angesetzt:

Zur Erinnerung:
HOW THEY LINE UP ON U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL

States favouring draft U.N. resolution authorising war against Iraq: United States*, Britain*, Spain, Bulgaria

States opposed: France*, Russia*, China*, Germany, Syria

Undecided/undeclared: Angola, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico, Pakistan

Note - To pass, a new resolution would require nine votes in favour and no veto from any permanent member (asterisked*)

schrieb am 16.03.03 20:01:41

Beitrag Nr. 245 ()

Ungarn hat USA und GB den Luftraum zur Verfügung gestellt. Die Anfrage kam am Samstag.

schrieb am 16.03.03 20:04:06

Beitrag Nr. 246 ()

16 Mar 2003 18:54 GMT Bush Sets Monday Deadline for Diplomatic Efforts On Iraq

schrieb am 16.03.03 20:05:20

Beitrag Nr. 247 ()

Nebenbei hat Frankreich seine Prognosen gesenkt um etwa ein Prozent und rechnet mit weiteren Zinssenkungen der EU. Die Opec will den Ölpreis im Kriegsfall unter 35 USD halten.

schrieb am 16.03.03 20:37:08

Beitrag Nr. 248 ()

IRAQ PREPARING FOR WAR AS IF IT STARTING IN AN HOUR -IRAQ FOREIGN MINISTER

=> Ob das so schlau war von Bush...?

schrieb am 16.03.03 21:27:02

Beitrag Nr. 249 ()

Kann mir jemand bei der Verbindung zu Jose Maria Aznar noch ein wenig weiterhelfen?

Bisher habe ich nur das Aznar wohl ein bekannter Name ist für SPAHISH JEWISH (SEPHARDIC)-sche Herkunft. http://usuarios.lycos.es/pardoinfo/crising.htm

Ansonsten ist er allerdings als Katholik angegeben, wenn auch nicht so gar der enthusiastische.

schrieb am 16.03.03 21:41:11

Beitrag Nr. 250 ()

Aznar hat jedenfals im Juni 2001 vermittelt zwischen Assad und Nethanyhu. Im Netz konnte ich lesen, daß hier wohl am 26. in Monaco verhandelt wurde, es soll wohl auch um die Aufgabe der Golanhöhen durch die Israelis gegangen sein. Das Motiv fehlt mir aber noch irgendwie.

schrieb am 23.03.03 09:59:43

Beitrag Nr. 251 ()

So da war ich mal wieder ein paar Tage nicht abkömmlich. Es gibt einiges nachzuholen, aber man kann es auch ganz einfach zusammenfassen:

Wie wir alle wissen haben die Amerikaner nun damit begonnen den Irak zu bombardieren. Natürlich ohne die Franzosen und die Russen, die Verträge mit dem Irak haben, günstig Öl bei Aufgebung des Embargos geliefert zu bekommen. Doch diese Verträge werden wohl hinfällig wenn das Regieme nicht mehr existiert.

Leider zocken uns die Konzerne allesamt ab, denn an den Tankstellen halten die den Ölpreis offensichtlich noch gerne oben, und senken erst ganz langsam die Preise.

Daher erlaube ich mir einfach mal die Zahlen von letzer Woche auszusparen. Sie können die Bewegung im Dax zwar zum Teil erklären, aber die US Indizes können weniger dadurch erklärt werden. Hier sind zum Teil einzelne Unternehmensnews wichtiger, ebenso wie das Gesamtgeschehen.

Interessant ist die Projektion, daß 2003 25% mehr Chips als in 2002 verkauft werden sollen. Dieses hat das Depot dieses Threads auch wieder ins Plus befördert.

schrieb am 23.03.03 12:01:56

Beitrag Nr. 252 ()

Für heute noch ein wenig Pflichtlektüre:

The Federal Reserve System is a Private Bank

Thomas Jefferson, declared, "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Did Jefferson have a crystal ball when he spoke these words? Has a private bank taken control over our nation`s money supply?

The following is a conversation with Mr. Ron Supinski of the Public Information Department of the San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank. This is an account of that conversation reconstructed to the best of my ability from notes taken during the conversation on October 8, 1992.

CALLER - Mr. Supinski, does my country own the Federal Reserve System?

MR. SUPINSKI - We are an agency of the government.

CALLER - That`s not my question. Is it owned by my country?

MR. SUPINSKI - It is an agency of the government created by congress.

CALLER - Is the Federal Reserve a Corporation?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes CALLER - Does my government own any of the stock in the Federal Reserve?

MR. SUPINSKI - No, it is owned by the member banks.

CALLER - Are the member banks private corporations?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes CALLER - Are Federal Reserve Notes backed by anything?

MR. SUPINSKI -Yes, by the assets of the Federal Reserve but, primarily by the power of congress to lay tax on the people.

CALLER - Did you say, by the power to collect taxes is what backs Federal Reserve Notes?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes CALLER - What are the total assets of the Federal Reserve?

MR. SUPINSKI - The San Francisco Bank has $36 Billion in assets.

CALLER - What are these assets comprised of?

MR. SUPINSKI - Gold, the Federal Reserve Bank itself and government securities.

CALLER - What value does the Federal Reserve Bank carry gold per oz. on their books?

MR. SUPINSKI - I don`t have that information but the San Francisco Bank has $1.6 billion in gold.

CALLER - Are you saying the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has $1.6 billion in gold, the bank itself and the balance of the assets is government securities?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes.

CALLER - Where does the Federal Reserve get Federal Reserve Notes from?

MR. SUPINSKI - They are authorized by the Treasury.

CALLER - How much does the Federal Reserve pay for a $10 Federal Reserve Note?

MR. SUPINSKI - Fifty to seventy cents.

CALLER - How much do they pay for a $100.00 Federal Reserve Note?

MR. SUPINSKI - The same fifty to seventy cents.

CALLER - To pay only fifty cents for a $100.00 is a tremendous gain, isn`t it?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes

CALLER - According to the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve pays $20.60 per 1,000 denomination or a little over two cents for a $100.00 bill, is that correct?

MR. SUPINSKI - That is probably close.

CALLER - Doesn`t the Federal Reserve use the Federal Reserve Notes that cost about two cents each to purchase U.S. Bonds from the government?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes, but there is more to it than that.

CALLER - Basically, that is what happens?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes, basically you are correct.

CALLER - How many Federal Reserve Notes are in circulation?

MR. SUPINSKI - $263 billion and we can only account for a small percentage.

CALLER - Where did they go?

MR. SUPINSKI - Peoples mattress, buried in their back yards and illegal drug money.

CALLER - Since the debt is payable in Federal Reserve Notes, how can the $4 trillion national debt be paid-off with the total Federal Reserve Notes in circulation?

MR. SUPINSKI - I don`t know.

CALLER - If the Federal Government would collect every Federal Reserve Note in circulation would it be mathematically possible to pay the $4 trillion national debt?

MR. SUPINSKI - No CALLER - Am I correct when I say, $1 deposited in a member bank $8 can be lent out through Fractional Reserve Policy?

MR. SUPINSKI - About $7.

CALLER - Correct me if I am wrong but, $7 of additional Federal Reserve Notes were never put in circulation. But, for lack of better words were "created out of thin air " in the form of credits and the two cents per denomination were not paid either. In other words, the Federal Reserve Notes were not physically printed but, in reality were created by a journal entry and lent at interest. Is that correct?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes CALLER - Is that the reason there are only $263 billion Federal Reserve Notes in circulation?

MR. SUPINSKI - That is part of the reason.

CALLER - Am I mistaking that when the Federal Reserve Act was passed (on Christmas Eve) in 1913, it transferred the power to coin and issue our nations money and to regulate the value thereof from Congress to a Private corporation. And my country now borrows what should be our own money from the Federal Reserve (a private corporation) plus interest. Is that correct and the debt can never be paid off under the current money system of country?

MR. SUPINSKI - Basically, yes.

CALLER - I smell a rat, do you?

MR. SUPINSKI - I am sorry, I can`t answer that, I work here.

CALLER - Has the Federal Reserve ever been independently audited?

MR. SUPINSKI - We are audited.

CALLER - Why is there a current House Resolution 1486 calling for a complete audit of the Federal Reserve by the G.A.O. and why is the Federal Reserve resisting?

MR. SUPINSKI - I don`t know.

CALLER - Does the Federal Reserve regulate the value of Federal Reserve Notes and interest rates?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes

CALLER - Explain how the Federal Reserve System can be Constitutional if, only the Congress of the U.S., which comprises of the Senate and the House of Representatives has the power to coin and issue our money supply and regulate the value thereof? [Article 1 Section 1 and Section 8] Nowhere, in the Constitution does it give Congress the power or authority to transfer any powers granted under the Constitution to a private corporation or, does it?

MR. SUPINSKI - I am not an expert on constitutional law. I can refer you to our legal department.

CALLER - I can tell you I have read the Constitution. It does NOT provide that any power granted can be transferred to a private corporation. Doesn`t it specifically state, all other powers not granted are reserved to the States and to the citizens? Does that mean to a private corporation?

MR. SUPINSKI - I don`t think so, but we were created by Congress.

CALLER - Would you agree it is our country and it should be our money as provided by our Constitution?

MR. SUPINSKI - I understand what you are saying.

CALLER - Why should we borrow our own money from a private consortium of bankers? Isn`t this why we had a revolution, created a separate sovereign nation and a Bill of Rights?

MR. SUPINSKI - (Declined to answer).

CALLER - Has the Federal Reserve ever been declared constitutional by the Supreme Court?

MR. SUPINSKI - I believe there has been court cases on the matter.

CALLER - Have they been Supreme Court Cases?

MR. SUPINSKI - I think so, but I am not sure.

CALLER - Didn`t the Supreme Court declare unanimously in A.L.A. Schechter Poultry Corp. vs. U.S. and Carter vs. Carter Coal Co. the corporative-state arrangement an unconstitutional delegation of legislative power? ["The power conferred is the power to regulate. This is legislative delegation in its most obnoxious form; for it is not even delegation to an official or an official body, presumptively disinterested, but to private persons."
Carter vs. Carter Coal Co.]

MR. SUPINSKI - I don`t know, I can refer you to our legal department.

CALLER - Isn`t the current money system a house of cards that must fall because, the debt can mathematically never be paid-off?

MR. SUPINSKI - It appears that way. I can tell you have been looking into this matter and are very knowledgeable. However, we do have a solution.

CALLER - What is the solution?

MR. SUPINSKI - The Debit Card.

CALLER - Do you mean under the E.F.T. Act (Electronic Funds Transfer)? Isn`t that very frightening, when one considers the capabilities of computers? It would provide the government and all it`s agencies, including the Federal Reserve such information as: You went to the gas station @ 2:30 and bought $10.00 of unleaded gas @ $1.41 per gallon and then you went to the grocery store @ 2:58 and bought bread, lunch meat and milk for $12.32 and then went to the drug store @ 3:30 and bought cold medicine for $5.62. In other words, they would know where we go, when we went, how much we paid, how much the merchant paid and how much profit he made. Under the E.F.T. they will literally know everything about us. Isn`t that kind of scary?

MR. SUPINSKI - Yes, it makes you wonder.

CALLER - I smell a GIANT RAT that has overthrown my constitution. Aren`t we paying tribute in the form of income taxes to a consortium of private bankers?

MR. SUPINSKI - I can`t call it tribute, it is interest.

CALLER - Haven`t all elected officials taken an oath of office to preserve and defend the Constitution from enemies both foreign and domestic? Isn`t the Federal Reserve a domestic enemy?

MR. SUPINSKI - I can`t say that.

CALLER - Our elected officials and members of the Federal Reserve are guilty of aiding and abetting the overthrowing of my Constitution and that is treason. Isn`t the punishment of treason death?

MR. SUPINSKI - I believe so.

CALLER - Thank you for your time and information and if I may say so, I think you should take the necessary steps to protect you and your family and withdraw your money from the banks before the collapse, I am.

MR. SUPINSKI - It doesn`t look good.

CALLER - May God have mercy on the souls who are behind this unconstitutional and criminal act called the Federal Reserve. When the ALMIGHTY MASS awakens to this giant hoax, they will not take it with a grain of salt. It has been a pleasure talking to you and I thank you for your time. I hope you will take my advice before it does collapse.

MR. SUPINSKI - Unfortunately, it does not look good.

CALLER - Have a good day and thanks for your time.

MR. SUPINSKI - Thanks for calling.

If the reader has any doubts to the validity of this conversation, call your nearest Federal Reserve Bank, YOU KNOW THE QUESTIONS TO ASK! You won`t find them listed under the Federal Government. They are in the white pages, along with Federal Express, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), and any other business. Find out for yourself if all this is true. And then, go to your local law library and look up the case of Lewis vs. U.S., case #80-5905, 9th Circuit, June 24, 1982. It reads in part: "Examining the organization and function of the Federal Reserve Banks and applying the relevant factors, we conclude that the federal reserve are NOT federal instrumentalities . . . but are independent and privately owned and controlled corporations . . . federal reserve banks are listed neither as `wholly owned` government corporations [under 31 U.S.C. Section 846] nor as `mixed ownership` corporations [under 31 U.S.C. Section 856] . . .

28 U.S.C. Sections 1346(b), 2671. `Federal agency` is defined as: the executive departments, the military departments, independent establishments of the United States, and corporations acting primarily as instrumentalities of the United States, but does not include any contractors with the United States . . .

There are no sharp criteria for determining whether an entity is a federal agency within the meaning of the Act, but the critical factor is the existence of the federal government control over the `detailed physical performance` and `day to day operations` of that entity. Other factors courts have considered include whether the entity is an independent corporation . . . whether the government is involved in the entity`s finances, . . . and whether the mission of the entity furthers the policy of the United States . . . Examining the organization and function of the Federal Reserve Banks, and applying the relevant factors, we conclude that the Reserve Banks are not federal instrumentalities . . .

It is evident from the legislative history of the Federal Reserve Act that Congress did not intend to give the federal government direction over the daily operation of the Reserve Banks . . .

The fact that the Federal Reserve Board regulates the Reserve Banks does not make them federal agencies under the Act . . . Unlike typical federal agencies, each bank is empowered to hire and fire employees at will. Bank employees do not participate in the Civil Service Retirement System. They are covered by worker`s compensation insurance, purchased by the Bank, rather than the Federal Employees Compensation Act. Employees traveling on Bank business are not subject to federal travel regulations and do not receive government employee discounts on lodging and services . . .

Finally, the Banks are empowered to sue and be sued in their own name. 12 U.S.C. Section 341. They carry their own liability insurance and typically process and handle their own claims . . ."

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, "When the Federal Reserve was created, its stock was sold to the member banks." ("The Hats The Federal Reserve Wears", published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

The original Stock-holders of the Federal Reserve Banks in 1913 were the Rockefeller`s, J.P. Morgan, Rothschild`s, Lazard Freres, Schoellkopf, Kuhn-Loeb, Warburgs, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs.

The MONEY-CHANGERS wanted to be insured they had a monopoly over our money supply, so Congress passed into law Title 12, Section 284 of the United States Code. Section 284 specifically states, "NO STOCK ALLOWED TO THE U.S."

* Monopoly - "A privilege or peculiar advantage vested in one or more persons or companies, consisting in the exclusive right (or power) to carry on a particular business or trade, manufacture a particular article, or control the sale of the whole supply of a particular commodity, A form of market structure in which only a few firms dominate the total sales of a product or service.

`Monopoly`, as prohibited by Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act, has two elements: possession of a monopoly power in relevant market and willful acquisition or maintenance of that power, as distinguished from growth or development as a consequence of a superior power, business acumen, or historical product. A monopoly condemned by the Sherman Act is the power to fix prices, or exclude competition, coupled with policies designed to use and preserve that power." (Black`s Law Dictionary, 6th Edition)

The Federal Reserve Act goes one step farther, "No Senator or Representative in Congress shall be a member of the Federal Reserve Board or an officer or director of a Federal Reserve Bank." They didn`t want We The People to have any say in the operation of their monopoly through our elected officials.

What can you do about it? Contact your congressman and senators to protest and demand hearings to investigate the unconstitutionality of the Federal Reserve Act. You can find their name, address, email address, phone number or fax number at http://thomas.loc.gov/ .

schrieb am 24.03.03 21:04:44

Beitrag Nr. 253 ()

Nach einer riesigen Rally mußte es irgendwann auch Gewinnmitnahmen geben. Da kamen die miesen Indikatoren heute wieder wie gerufen. Morgens wurde schon vor Börsenbeginn mitgeteielt, daß die Auftraäge im Bauhauptgewerbe um 9,7% gefallen waren. Und auch die Japaner hatten nicht die tollste Handelsbilanz. Außenhandelsbilanz von Deutschland war auf den ersten Blick nicht so rosig, auf den zweiten ist es noch ganz mittelprächtig:
Importpreise: +0,3% mm / +0,6% yy => und besondere Beachtung: Ohne das Öl: -2,3% yy !!!
Exportpreise: +0,3% mm / +0,9% yy !!!

Weiterhin bleibt das Öl recht günstig, auch wenn es heute wieder etwas zulegen konnte!!! Somit ist die obige Zahl auch etwas mehr zu gewichten.

Um 12 Uhr kam dann allerdings eine negative Handelsbilanz für die EU mit -1,5 Mrd. EUR. Das ist natürlich ein weiterer mieser Punkt von heute gewesen.

Soweit die Zusammenfassung für heute. Ich will nicht den Blick für das Wesentliche hier verlieren, daher lasse ich den Politik und den Krieg hier etwas außen vor.

schrieb am 24.03.03 21:23:23

Beitrag Nr. 254 ()

Zahlen für Morgen:

Vor Börsenbeginn Zahlen aus Frankreich zu Häusern und privatem Verbrauch. Dann noch Zahlen zu MAN, Post und Metro im Dax.

10:00 Italien Geschäftsklimaindex
12:00 EU Einzelhandel Jan
13:45 US BTM-UBSW Sales
14:55 US Redbook Retail Sales
16:00 US Consumer Confidence März !!! (erw. 62,0 einige sogar 64,0)
16:00 US Existing Home Sales Feb (5,80 Mio.)
16:00 US Stahlimporte Feb (vorläufig)

Allen gute Gewinne.

schrieb am 29.03.03 19:26:28

Beitrag Nr. 255 ()

Die Zahlen aus der letzten Woche waren gemischt gut aus meiner Sicht. Viele Zahlen waren doch besser als ich sie erwartet habe. Dann gegen Ende der Woche allerdings eine Nachricht, die deutlich negatives Sentiment mit sich bringt. Es handelt sich um folgende Nachricht vom Freitag:

14:58 ET S&P may downgrade Altria, says PM USA may not be able to raise bond amount (MO) 31.84 -1.46: -- Update -- Standard & Poor`s says that its "A" corporate credit ratings on Altria Group and related entities such as Kraft Foods remain on CreditWatch with negative implications and may be lowered in the near-term. Although the Illinois court has stayed the entry of its $10.1 bln judgment reached on March 21 for 30 days until on or about April 21, Philip Morris USA could be required to post a bond for as much as $12.0 bln; Standard & Poor`s believes that the co would be seriously challenged to raise this amount, and Philip Morris USA might have to consider bankruptcy as an option.

Dieses sehe ich im globalen Zusammenhang mit dem Posting #252. Ich glaube auch nicht das MO die einzigen bleiben werden.

Die Chippreise haben sich hingegen sehr freundlich entwickelt. Ölpreise und Arbeitsmarktdaten sehen nun mittelfristig auch erfreulicher aus.

schrieb am 30.03.03 14:47:40

Beitrag Nr. 256 ()

Dieses fand ich ganz interessant aus dem Report vom 26.3.2003:

CRUDE OIL INPUTS AT REFINERIES: Total, By Region
(thousands of bbls/day)

Week Ended: 03/21/03 03/14/03
Crude Oil Inputs 14,732 14,770
PADD 1 - East Coast 1,613 1,636
PADD 2 - MidWest 3,078 3,073
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 7,023 7,059
PADD 4 - Rocky Mtns 477 490
PADD 5 - West Coast 2,541 2,512

Hier sieht man gut die Abhängigkeit der USA von der Golf Region.

schrieb am 30.03.03 22:34:34

Beitrag Nr. 257 ()

Wochenendfortbildung (nichts neues für die Leser dieses Threads):

FAQs on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

What are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
What is the charter of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
How do Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae differ?
What does GSE stand for?
What is the nature of the relationship between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae and the US Government?
How are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac regulated?
What is the likelihood of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac losing their GSE status?
To what risks are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exposed, and how do they manage them?
Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac overleveraged?
Is there a housing bubble and, if so, how would one affect the underlying mortgages in your fund?
Is the continued scrutiny of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a positive or negative?
Can you explain the importance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the growth of the U.S. economy?
How does the disclosure about Fannie Mae`s duration gap affect investors in mortgage-backed securities?

What are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are shareholder-owned companies whose objective is to make sure mortgage money is available for home buyers in America. They do not lend money directly to home buyers. Instead, they work with lenders, exclusively operating in the secondary mortgage market. They help to ensure that money for mortgages is available to home buyers in two ways. First, they purchase mortgages from lenders and hold those mortgages in their portfolio. The lenders, in turn can use that money to make more mortgages for more home buyers. Second, they issue what are known as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) in exchange for pools of mortgages from lenders. These MBS provide the lenders with a more liquid asset to hold or sell.

In order to fund the mortgages they buy, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issue debt securities to investors. A significant part of their earnings is derived from the difference between the yield on the mortgages they hold and the cost of funds on their debt securities.

When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issue MBS, they guarantee that investors will receive timely principal and interest payments regardless of what happens to the underlying mortgages. In return for the guaranty, they earn a fee. These fees are another source of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac`s income.

What is the charter of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are federally chartered corporations. Fannie Mae is a federally chartered and stockholder-owned corporation organized and existing under the Federal National Mortgage Association Charter Act whose purpose is to (1) provide stability in the secondary market for residential mortgages, (2) respond appropriately to the private capital market, (3) provide ongoing assistance to the secondary market for residential mortgages (including activities relating to mortgages on housing for low- and moderate-income families involving a reasonable economic return that may be less than the return earned on other activities) by increasing the liquidity of mortgage investments and improving the distribution of investment capital available for residential mortgage financing, and (4) promote access to mortgage credit throughout the nation (including central cities, rural areas and underserved areas) by increasing the liquidity of mortgage investments and improving the distribution of investment capital available for residential mortgage financing. Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress on July 24, 1970 under the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Act, with the same statutory purposes as Fannie Mae.

How do Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae differ?
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have substantially similar charters, Congressional mandates and regulatory structures. Both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae operate as publicly traded corporations. Ginnie Mae is a wholly-owned government corporation within the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Unlike Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae`s guarantee is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

What does GSE stand for?
A GSE is a Government Sponsored Enterprise, and it is the unofficial designation of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae (and others). The GSE status reflects the special relationship these organizations have with the US government.

What is the nature of the relationship between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae and the US Government?
The prospectuses for all of Fannie Mae`s and Freddie Mac`s debt offerings clearly state that the U.S. government does not back the company`s debt instruments. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not agencies of the Federal or any state government, nor do they receive any subsidy or appropriation from the government. Their securities are not backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Although born as government agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are federally chartered corporations that are shareholder-owned, whose stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are exempt from paying state and local income taxes. They are also exempt from filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Both companies have a line of credit with the US Treasury available to them in the amount of $2.25 billion. (Neither company has ever needed to take advantage of this line.) Each company has a board of directors, and a portion of those directors are appointed by the President of the United States.

Even though it is explicitly stated that the United States does not provide a full faith and credit backing to the debt securities or the MBS guaranty of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the financial markets and rating agencies have interpreted the GSE status to mean that there is an implied government backing, and have priced their securities accordingly.

Ginnie Mae is a wholly-owned government corporation within the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Unlike Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae`s guarantee is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

How are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac regulated?
The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 created a regulatory oversight structure for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to monitor their housing mission and their safety and soundness. HUD has oversight responsibilities for the housing mission of the agencies. Safety and soundness regulation is vested in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Organizationally, OFHEO is located within HUD, but operates independently of the Secretary of HUD as it implements, monitors and enforces capital standards for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This arrangement is similar to how the Office of Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) operates within the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

What is the likelihood of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac losing their GSE status?
It is unclear exactly what this would mean. Perhaps it would mean that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have to pay state and local taxes, the $2.25 billion line of credit would be taken away, all of their securities would have to registered with the SEC, they would no longer have to accept political appointees to their boards, or all of the above.

It is also unclear exactly what would precipitate this type of change. Regardless, it is unlikely that the special relationship enjoyed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be severed. The companies have come to play a very important role in the housing market through their execution of their charter and in the financial markets by virtue of their size. A change in status would undoubtedly roil both markets, an outcome that would most likely be far worse than whatever ill it purported to correct.

Freddie Mac has thought about this issue and made the following disclosure in its 2001 Information Statement. "Elimination or modification of our various exemptions, new or additional fees or substantive regulation of our business activities, alteration or elimination of our relationship to the federal government or any significant amendments to the Freddie Mac Act or other federal legislation bearing on the corporation could require or cause us to change the nature and/or extent of our business activities, and could adversely affect the scope of our activities, financial condition and results of operations. Any amendments to the Freddie Mac Act or modification of our relationship to the federal government, including assessment of user fees or oversight fees, repeal of our exemptions or any modification of the present tax treatment of mortgage interest payments, would require legislation to be passed by Congress and signed by the President. Legislation that adversely affects the corporation or its shareholders, if challenged, would be subject to judicial review to ensure its conformity with the requirements of the United States Constitution (including the Fifth Amendment`s ban on uncompensated takings of property)."

To what risks are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exposed, and how do they manage them?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have indisputable strong points. Due to the implied backing of the United States government, they enjoy virtually unlimited access to the capital markets at funding costs that are below market. Together they dominate their market-their combined book of business of $2.6 trillion at March 31, 2002 constituted 46% of the $5.5 trillion in home mortgage debt outstanding, up from 35% in 1996. They pay no local taxes, only national. Their credit experience has been terrific. They are adept at public and governmental relations. Each has enjoyed tremendous growth and profitability, with 2001 ROEs of 23.1% (Freddie) and 25.4% (Fannie), and 2001 net margins of 56% (Freddie) and 63% (Fannie). These results do not come without risk. The risks to which the companies are exposed include credit risk, interest rate risk, derivatives-related risk, market-related risk, operational risk and political risk. The agencies` primary exposure to credit risk is associated with the mortgages in its total mortgage portfolio, the risk that borrowers do not pay the amounts due or default on their mortgage, which could potentially result in a loss. The companies manage this risk through sound underwriting and quality control, obtaining credit enhancements on higher risk mortgages and mitigating losses through early action. The companies are also subject to credit risk from institutional counterparties to the extent they do not fulfill their contractual obligations, primarily related to mortgage services, mortgage insurers and reinsurers and other mortgage guarantors. The companies manage this risk through strict guidelines on the choice of institutional counterparties, use of credit enhancements, strong documentation and contracts and ongoing analysis and oversight. Interest rate risk is the risk that changes in the level of interest rates or changes in the shape of the yield curve could adversely affect the market value and earnings of the agencies. The primary manifestation of this exposure is in the uncertainty as to when borrowers will pay the outstanding principal balance of their mortgages. A mortgage borrower has the option of prepaying, and the exercise of this option is very sensitive to changes in interest rates. The agencies typically will employ several strategies to manage interest rate risk, including actively adjusting their funding mix to match assets, investing in assets that are less sensitive to prepayment risk, and entering into derivatives transactions to obtain low-cost financing, reduce risk and protect market value. Derivatives are used to hedge prepayment options embedded in retained mortgages, foreign currency exposure, existing long-term fixed-rate debt and forecasted debt issuance. The primary derivative-related risk that the agencies incur is counterparty credit risk resulting from credit exposure to derivative counterparties. Market-related risks that the agencies are exposed to include the risk of fluctuations in the value of their mortgage portfolio, volatility risk, liquidity risk and foreign currency risk. Each of these risks is monitored and managed in different ways, through the use of derivatives and asset-based strategies. The operational risk to the agencies is similar to the risk faced by any large institution, and is mitigated by strong management controls. The political risk faced by the agencies is the risk that Congress decides it is in the best interests of the country and the agencies` shareholders and debtholders to change its relationship. There is almost constant debate over the nature of this relationship and what responsibilities inure to the agencies in exchange for its benefits. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac manage this risk through aggressive public relations, lobbying and trying to manage their businesses as transparently as possible.

Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac overleveraged?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are financial institutions, and all financial institutions are highly leveraged. At the end of the first quarter of 2002, the combined balance sheet of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had assets of $1.45 trillion and equity of $36.6 billion, a ratio of 40:1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee the payment of principal and interest on close to $2.6 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. These obligations are 70 times as much as equity. Both of these leverage ratios have been rising over the past decade.

The concept of "overleveraged" makes sense only if discussed in relation to the risks that are magnified through the use of leverage. The growth of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has been substantial and made possible by their access to credit. To date, the agencies have successfully weathered many storms, most notably the recession of 1990-1991 and the bond market turmoil of 1994-1998, which would suggest that their leverage did not magnify the risks to a point where the company lost capital. The increased leverage in recent years does increase the risks in the current operating environment. What remains to be seen is whether the agencies` current levels of leverage are excessive given current financial market and economic conditions.

Is there a housing bubble and, if so, how would one affect the underlying mortgages in your fund?
In some local markets there has been rapid price appreciation. According to the National Association of Realtors, through May, 29 out of about 135 MSAs had experienced year over year growth in median sales prices of greater than 10%, 7 that had experienced growth rates of greater than 19%, and 18 that had suffered negative growth. (Highest growth? Nassau/Suffolk County, NY at 26.5% YOY. Lowest? Peoria, IL, at -7.2%.) Nationally, the average is about 7%. Rising home prices make it possible for larger loans to be made against the same property. The risk a decline in prices would pose to underlying mortgages is that the value of the home could fall below the value of the mortgage. In the event of a default on the mortgage, there would be a loss for the mortgageholder.

For holders of a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, any defaults or delinquencies result in zero loss: the credit risk is borne by the agencies, and the holders are made whole and paid 100 cents on the dollar. In addition, a large portfolio of mortgage-backed securities offers geographical diversification which mitigates any exposure to local problem areas.

In any event, holders of MBS are protected by the secured structure of mortgage-backed securities. The MBS holder has multiple levels of protection. Besides the implied guarantee of Treasury, the MBS holder is secured-protected by the actual loan-to-value rating of the home, mortgage insurance, the income verification and maintenance of the homeowner, property/casualty and life insurance, the rights of foreclosure and the settlement process, and the reduction in principal amount from monthly amortization.

Is the continued scrutiny of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a positive or negative?
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac most likely believe that this scrutiny is a negative in that it is costly to manage and may result in a change in operations. However, scrutiny that results in policies that ensure the safe and sound operations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and therefore the American financial system, can`t be a bad thing.

Can you explain the importance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the growth of the U.S. economy?
A report out last spring showed that fully one-half of last year`s 1.2% gain in real GDP growth was due to housing activity. Inarguably, the activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in executing their charter, combined with the current low rate environment, have been a key component of the housing market strength. It would not be too far a stretch to suggest that the agencies` activities are central to this growth.

The work of the agencies would not be possible without a willing and accommodative credit market. At March 31, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had $2.6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities outstanding, another $1.4 trillion of corporate debt obligations, and equity market capitalization exceeding a combined $100 billion. Fully 20% of marketable U.S. government and federal agency securities held in custody by the Federal Reserve Banks for foreign official and international accounts are agency securities -- double the percentage of three years ago. Moreover, there are huge institutional notional exposures to Fannie and Freddie in the form of off-balance-sheet contingencies, like swap counterparties, mortgage servicers, primary market originators, and mortgage insurance companies. As the biggest issuer of mortgage-backed securities and corporate securities in the world, the biggest buyer and hedger of the securities in the world and, not least, the source of liquidity for more than 75% of conventional and conforming home mortgages extended in this country. It could be argued that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are about as central to the American capital markets as the Treasury Department.

How does the disclosure about Fannie Mae`s duration gap affect investors in mortgage-backed securities?
On September 16, 2002, Fannie Mae released its monthly summary of activity in its mortgage portfolio, including mortgage commitments, purchases and sales, portfolio growth rate, net interest margin, delinquencies and duration gap. The headline piece of data emanating from this release was that the company`s duration gap had widened to a negative 14 months on August 31, reflecting the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates. Fannie Mae`s duration gap measures the difference, in months, between the durations of the assets and the liabilities in its mortgage portfolio. The target for the duration gap, established by management, is to be within a band of plus or minus 6 months. On October 1, Fannie Mae rushed out to the market the news that its September duration gap had narrowed slightly to 10 months.

It is not unusual for Fannie Mae`s duration gap to be outside of this band; over the past dozen years the duration gap has been outside the target range one-third of the time. Nor is it unusual for the duration gap to turn negative during periods of high refinancing (the Mortgage Bankers Association Refinancing Index hit an all-time high in the first week of October). What is noteworthy about the recent disclosure is that with the September data point, it is now three months in a row that the company has had a duration gap outside of its target band. Clearly, the models that Fannie Mae employs to manage interest rate risk did not contemplate current record-low levels of interest rates or the scale of refinancing activity in the market. (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae`s twin in the mortgage finance market, disclosed that in the same period its duration gap was zero, evidence that Fannie Mae`s models might not be working as well as Freddie Mac`s in this regard.)

On a company-specific level, this condition suggests that the current wave of refinancing has resulted in a substantial shortening of the duration of Fannie Mae`s assets relative to is liabilities. Since Fannie Mae generates a significant portion of its revenues through the spread between what it pays on its liabilities and what it earns on its assets, a refi-induced shortening of the duration of its assets will lower their yield and may end up squeezing net interest margins. Going forward, Fannie Mae will endeavor to bring its duration gap to within its target band through the use of interest rate derivatives or by some combination of extending the duration of their assets-through the purchase of longer-duration assets like Treasurys, corporates or different types of mortgage assets-and shortening the duration of their liabilities-through calling its longer duration debt or issuing shorter-term liabilities. These efforts may also result in lower margins. In other words, while Fannie Mae may see earnings pressure going forward, it is in no serious danger of seeing its ability to operate threatened.

On a more general level, the refinancing wave affects all investors in mortgage-backed securities, and in much the same way that it affects Fannie Mae. The question is one of degree and the extent to which the investor`s strategy is flexible enough to perform in various interest rate environments. Our position on the news coming out of Fannie Mae solely relates to this general condition. We manage our portfolio so that it can maintain NAV stability and generate income for investors in up or down markets. As such, we manage the interest rate risk in our portfolio with a strategy that is substantially different from Fannie Mae: Our portfolio is largely adjustable-rate and floating-rate mortgage-backed securities, financed with short-duration reverse repurchase agreements. Thus, we have minimal duration mismatch. In other words, generally as our assets reset up or down, so will our liabilities.

The last point to make on this issue has to do with the risk in investing in Fannie Mae. While the agency`s current interest rate risk management predicament may pose challenges to the valuation of its common stock, let us emphasize that we don`t invest in Fannie Mae stock. We invest in mortgage-backed securities wrapped with guarantees as to payment of principal and interest by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. Despite the fact that Fannie and Freddie`s commitment to pay under the guarantee is pari passu with the obligation to its corporate bondholders, the MBS holder has multiple levels of protection. Besides the implied guarantee of Treasury, the MBS holder is secured-protected by the actual loan-to-value rating of the home, mortgage insurance, the income verification and maintenance of the homeowner, property/casualty and life insurance, the rights of foreclosure and the settlement process, and the reduction in principal amount from monthly amortization. Furthermore, geographical diversification protects the MBS investor. In short, unlike unsecured investments, ours are secured and, at that, secured by a basic element of human existence.

October 15, 2002

schrieb am 30.03.03 22:35:41

Beitrag Nr. 258 ()

http://housing-bubble.com/sitemap.html

Nachdem Münchener Rück so viel verloren hat, sollte man sich die Gründe mal genauer anschauen...

schrieb am 30.03.03 22:45:02

Beitrag Nr. 259 ()

"We have guaranteed the supply of oil to all of our clients in the United States," Ramirez added in an interview with the private Televen television channel. Venezuela normally supplies more than 13 percent of all U.S. oil imports.

Chavez, who has strengthened ties with states seen as hostile by Washington, like Iran and Cuba, infuriated the U.S. government in 2000 by traveling to Baghdad to become the first head of state to meet with Hussein since the 1991 Gulf War.

Any decision by Venezuela on its oil production and exports would be taken within OPEC as a group, Ramirez said.

Venezuela, whose output and exports were slashed by a crippling opposition strike against Chavez in December and January, has been working to get oil operations back to normal since then. Oil exports are the country`s economic lifeblood and account for around half of government revenues.

Since the anti-Chavez strike fizzled out early in February, Venezuelan officials have gone out of their way to convince the U.S. government that their country will remain a reliable supplier of crude and oil products.

The government insists oil production has been restored to pre-strike levels of 3.1 million barrels per day. Striking oil workers, more than 16,000 of whom have been fired by the government, have put current output at around 2.45 million bpd.

Ramirez said the stoppage, which tried but failed to force the Populist Chavez to resign and hold early elections, cost the country`s strategic oil industry $6 billion in lost revenues and damage to installations." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">CARACAS, Venezuela, March 30 (Reuters) - Venezuela is guaran…

schrieb am 30.03.03 23:09:58

Beitrag Nr. 260 ()

week as the world`s largest carrier could very well be flying
under bankruptcy protection.
Banking sources close to the matter told Reuters that
American has ramped up discussions for $1.5 billion in
debtor-in-possession financing and could file for bankruptcy
protection as early as Monday.
Unions at American were scrambling over the weekend to reach
concession deals with the carrier on the grounds that they were
better off reaching agreements on pay and benefit cuts through
talks with the airline rather than letting a bankruptcy judge
possibly slash or revoke current contracts.
American, the world`s largest carrier, was struggling prior to
the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. A difficult
situation turned into a financial crises after the attacks, due to
the sharp drop in air travel.
Although it has tried to cuts costs, banking sources have said
the carrier, a division of AMR Corp. <AMR.N>, cannot easily
recover from a drop in air travel bookings brought about by the
war in Iraq. If it does file for bankruptcy, it will be the
largest carrier ever to seek Chapter 11 protection and the first
major U.S. corporate casualty of the war in Iraq.
A Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing allows a company to continuing
operating while it reorganizes its finances.
AMR, based in Fort Worth, Texas, posted an industry record
$3.5 billion loss in 2002, nearly a third of the more than $11
billion in losses posted by the top eight U.S. carriers. Since the
Sept. 11 attacks, rivals United`s UAL Corp. <UAL.N> and US Airways
<UAWGQ.OB> have filed for bankruptcy.
Discussions among the bank groups with AMR were continuing
over the weekend, the sources said, including debates on where the
potentially huge Chapter 11 filing would take place: in New York
or Texas.

PILOTS PRESENT CONCESSION PLAN
On Sunday, the Allied Pilots Association, which represents
about 13,500 pilots at American, said it had presented the airline
with a deal that met the $660 million in concessions the carrier
was seeking from the group. The union has said it intends to have
a deal by Monday that will be put to a vote by APA leadership.
The APA said the concessions would mostly come through
proposed work-rule changes and across-the-board pay rate
reductions. An American spokesman said the company is in the
process of reviewing the proposal and its calculations.
Union officials and the carrier have not said if any deals
would be binding under bankruptcy protection. However, American
may be following the example of bankrupt carrier US Airways, which
struck labor deals with its unions before heading to court to seek
Chapter 11 protection.
"We would hope, that as much as possible, that any consensual
agreement reached out of bankruptcy would remain if we were ever
forced into that situation. But there can be no guarantees," said
airline spokesman Bruce Hicks.
He added that bankruptcy presents new strains on the cost
structure for any company and said it was in the best interest of
employees to reach consensual agreements to help avoid Chapter
11.
AMR has said it needs to cut structural costs by about $4
billion a year to avoid bankruptcy. It is in talks with all three
of its major unions over its call for $1.8 billion in annual wage
concessions from employees.
American is losing about $5 million a day currently and
analysts have said the sooner American files for bankruptcy, the
more cash it will have on hand. That should make restructuring
less painful than if it waited longer to file for protection.

LABOR GROUPS TALKS DEALS
On the labor front, the airline has reached tentative
agreements on concessions with seven of the eight work groups
represented by the Transport Workers Union. The TWU, which
represents some 34,500 mechanics and ground personnel, is one of
the three major unions at American, which has about 100,000
employees.
The largest remaining TWU group without a deal is the group of
16,200 mechanics.
A top TWU official said that if unions do not reach deals
now, the carrier could ask employees for at least $500 million
more in concessions under Chapter 11.
"One consideration driving our discussions is the simple fact
confirmed in our (talks) with the company officials that
American`s potential debtor-in-possession finances will demand at
least half a billion (dollars) more in employee concessions if the
company files for bankruptcy," Jim Little, director of the TWU`s
Air Transport Division, wrote on the union`s Web site.
"It was also made clear that without such loans the company
could not operate," he said.
The union representing 26,000 flight attendants at American
said on Friday it presented the carrier with a concession deal
that will meet the airline`s goal of achieving $340 million in
cuts it is seeking from the group.
American said it was looking over the proposal`s numbers. A
spokesman for the Association of Professional Flight Attendants
said the union hoped to have an agreement in short time." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">American Airlines may land in bankruptcy court

By Jon Her…

schrieb am 30.03.03 23:11:17

Beitrag Nr. 261 ()

process for a company in that industry, of that size, and with
the complexities they have," said Joseph Luzinski, senior vice
president at Development Specialists Inc., a New York-based
management consulting company specializing in bankruptcy.
US Airways` parent, holding company US Airways Group Inc.
<UAWGQ.OB>, cleared its last major hurdles to exiting Chapter
11 on Friday.
On that date, the government`s Pension Benefit Guaranty
Corp. and Judge Stephen Mitchell of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court
in Alexandria, Virginia, approved a plan to terminate the
company`s pilot pension plan and replace it with a cheaper
one.
Spokesman Chris Chiames told the judge the airline would
spend the weekend conducting hundreds of transactions to
prepare for its bankruptcy exit.
Like other big airlines, US Airways has struggled with
rising costs and shrinking revenues because of the Sept. 11
attacks and a weak economy, and now the Iraq war. Like most
rivals, it expects to lose money this year.

STILL CUTTING
Last week, US Airways said it would temporarily cut about 4
percent of flights, though that`s less than several rivals.
It also told employees it would defer 5 percent of their
wages for up to 18 months because of the war and a "significant
double digits" percentage decline in bookings.
US Airways is poised to receive $240 million from lead
investor Retirement Systems of Alabama once it emerges from
Chapter 11. It will also receive a $900 million federal loan
guarantee, which will back $1 billion of private financing.
The carrier, however, is coming out of bankruptcy at a time
its sector is under severe duress.
No. 2 U.S. carrier United Airlines Inc., a unit of UAL
Corp. <UAL.N>, is in Chapter 11, as is No. 12 carrier Hawaiian
Airlines Inc., a unit of Hawaiian Holdings Inc. <HA.A>
AMR Corp.`s <AMR.N> American Airlines Inc., the world`s
largest carrier, may join them as soon as this week, people
familiar with the matter said.
Some industry experts said if business doesn`t improve, US
Airways might actually be a candidate to return to Chapter 11.
"The prize at the end of the rainbow was the government
guarantee, but you couldn`t be coming out at a worse time,"
said Thomas Boland, managing director at Seneca Financial Group
Inc., a Greenwich, Connecticut, financial restructuring
company.
"If we don`t see revenue growth similar to what we saw
pre-9/11 there`s a good possibility US Airways may go back in,"
he added.
US Airways shares closed Friday at 6.4 cents." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">US Airways set to exit Chapter 11 on Monday

By Jonathan S…

schrieb am 02.06.03 21:16:12

Beitrag Nr. 262 ()

Schade ich kann nur noch die letzten 20 Postings lesen... :mad:

schrieb am 03.06.03 10:52:29

Beitrag Nr. 263 ()

ist bei mir genauso

Lange nichts mehr geschrieben, geht´s jetzt wieder los?

schrieb am 09.06.03 13:08:16

Beitrag Nr. 264 ()

Ich habe soeben meine IFX verkauft zu 8,72 EK war glaube ich bei 7 EUR. Leider sind die alten Postings nicht mehr zu lesen, deshalb werde ich hier auch das Threaddepot nicht weiter führen. Somit ist es erst einmal in der versenkung verschwunden, weil WO die alten Postings nicht mehr zeigt.

schrieb am 09.06.03 14:44:38

Beitrag Nr. 265 ()

hi alter

scaramod hat den Thread neu generiert und jetzt läuft er wieder

Mußt halt nur bei W;O Feedback darum bitten

schrieb am 09.06.03 17:08:57

Beitrag Nr. 266 ()

@sphere

Ich danke Dir, ich wußte gar nicht das man auch Threads wiederbeleben kann. :cool:

schrieb am 09.06.03 17:25:28

Beitrag Nr. 267 ()

Also dann die

Depotabrechung:

VK 1000 IFX zu 8,72 abzüglich 0,1% Provision: 8711,28 EUR

Kontostand alt: 4103,99 EUR
Kontostand neu: 12815,27 EUR (= 4103,99 + 8711,28 EUR)

Depotbestand: Depot leer

Anmerkung:
Der Verkauf waren heute 1200 STK weil ich auch mal welche nachgekauft hatte, da es hier von mir nicht gepostet wurde (weil der Thread auf 20 Postings kastriert wurde) zählt es nicht für das Depot hier mit.
Weiterhin hatte ich heute noch zwei Puttrades wegen der Motorola Gewinnwarung, die ich hier natürlich auch gepostet hätte wenn ich früher gesehen hätte, daß der Thread wiederbelebt wurde. Diese Trades zählen selbstverständlich auch nicht für das hiesige Depot hier.

Motivation: Wie schon gesagt, verkauft wurden die Infineon wegen der Gewinnwarungn von Motorola einem bereits schönen Gewinn sowie einem geht starken Anstieg der Aktie in den letzten Tagen. Die Putmotivation fast aus den gleichen Gründen, dazu kommt noch das die Nasdaq nach 20 Uhr am Freitag sehr gefallen war, und der Dax das irgendwie nicht mitgemacht hatte.

Kurze Einschätzung: Die 1% pro Tag habe ich bisher weit gefehlt. Da ich allerdings seit Jahresbeginn nun mehr mehr als vollzeit beschäftigt bin, bin ich sehr zufrieden. Gewinne sind nun mal Gewinne und sind sie noch so klein. Aus dem eben genannten Grund gibt es auch nicht mehr so viele Postings von mir hier. Der Thread soll aber schon weiter gehen, mal sehen wie das möglich ist.

Frohe Pfingsten.

schrieb am 13.06.03 13:22:49

Beitrag Nr. 268 ()

Der Eichel wirkt ja mal wieder recht hilflos...

schrieb am 13.06.03 14:01:41

Beitrag Nr. 269 ()

Die Bonds sind recht hoch derzeit und waren wieder mal auf eine Zinssenkung. Weil die Zinsen so niedrig sind, haben sich wohl einige etwas geliehen und wollen es an der Börse multiplizieren, nicht umsonst sind die Märkte so stark wieder angezogen.

schrieb am 13.06.03 16:05:10

Beitrag Nr. 270 ()

Charttechnisch wohl gerade die Klippe hinuntergegangen...

schrieb am 13.06.03 21:48:58

Beitrag Nr. 271 ()

Geld bekommt man mitlerweile nachgeschissen, oder sagen wir zumindest die Banken. Anstelle hier immer weiter runter zu kommen mit den Zinsen, sollten die Banken langsam anfangen diese günstigen Konditionen an die Kunden auch mal weiter zu geben.

Ansonsten wird der Goldpreis noch einmal ein sehr interessanten Verlauf nehmen können.

Ich wünsche ein schönes Wochenende. Bei einem Dax der sehr rasant gestiegen ist, und die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung derzeit rechts überholt hat.

schrieb am 18.06.03 11:42:52

Beitrag Nr. 272 ()

Wir sind mittlerweile wieder bei Bewertungen wie Anfang Dezember hier vor dem Verfallstag angekommen. Ob die Wirtschaft besser geworden ist, daran habe ich so meine Zweifel.

18:04 ET SEMI book-to-bill ratio falls to 0.89 : The semicon…

Auch ausführlich nachzulesen unter http://www.semi.org => Press room

schrieb am 18.06.03 23:52:55

Beitrag Nr. 273 ()

Na nun sind doch die Zahlen von Micron gekommen. Leider etwas unvergleichbar zu den Schätzungen...

Q3 Umsätze USD 733M Vs USD 771M im Vorjahr macht 5% weniger Umsatz als im Vorjahr. Ob man das nun toll finden soll???

Außerdem soll der durchschnittliche Verkaufspreis um 15% gefallen sein.

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