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    ► BAYER AG ■ Auf neuen Wegen ◄ (Seite 1122)

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     Ja Nein
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 18:36:05
      Beitrag Nr. 13.860 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.515.956 von Sal-Paradise am 15.06.21 17:57:48Genau so ist es 👍
      Bayer | 53,66 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 18:27:09
      Beitrag Nr. 13.859 ()
      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434705-bayer-no-longer-dir…

      Summary

      When I last wrote on Bayer, the company traded at significant discounts. I established my position further, and have enjoyed excellent returns.
      Current valuations are higher, but current results are also promising, giving reasons for optimism regarding this company.
      I view Bayer as a "BUY" here and consider it a worthy investment.

      Bayer AG To Produce CureVac COVID-19 Vaccine
      Andreas Rentz/Getty Images News

      Bayer (OTCPK:BAYZF) is one of the companies I wrote about when things were cheap enough to really warrant some attention. This was all the way back in October. Since that particular time, shares have appreciated immensely and beaten the S&P500.

      (Source: Seeking Alpha, Bayer Article)

      I didn't buy enough, and I prioritized investments in other companies following my article, so I maintain only a marginal, 0.5% exposure to Bayer in my portfolio. In this article, I'll line up how I think about further investments into the company, and what we can expect from Bayer in this coming year.
      Bayer - How has the company been doing?

      So, Bayer - what are we looking at for 1Q21? Well, the company certainly performed well. Operational performance was good, but nonetheless was impacted heavily by FX, resulting in 1Q21 group sales of €12.3B, which were up 2.8% including FX and price adjustments. EBITDA was down 6.2%, though this was due to FX.

      Good Underlying Momentum Masked by Currency Headwinds

      (Source: Bayer)

      Special highlights came in from Crop Science, which was up due to an ever-improving market climate, and sales in pharma were relatively flat. Consumer health is ahead of the competition in terms of performance.

      Most importantly, the company has confirmed its 2021 outlook, which gives us a higher degree of confidence for the future.

      We Confirm our Outlook for 2021 (as Shown in February)

      (Source: Bayer)

      Some other core news involves the company's plans to divest its Environmental Science unit, which is in the business of controlling pests, disease, and weeds in non-agro areas such as forestry, turf, and ornamentals. The company performed annual sales of €600M during 2020, and as of yet, there are no real data on potential buyers or what sort of multiple we can expect the company to get for the business.

      On a deeper segment basis, Crop Science was the star of the show, due to its encouraging sales growth. This was seen in LATAM and Asia/Pacific above other areas, and can - as I mentioned - be related to overall improvements in market conditions. There was unusually high demand in eastern Europe, as well as overall price increases, and LATAM. The company's herbicides business is also growing, in part due to the rising prices on products such as Roundup. Overall, Bayer has managed to push pricing thanks to improving market conditions.

      Pharma was flat, but with lower sales in China/Asia, with explanations being new tender procedures for some of the company's products. These were in turn compensated by product sales growth in other areas.

      The decline in the consumer segment is simple to explain. The YoY comparison period was characterized by inflated sales in the prior-year quarter, and lockdown measures are still having an overall impact on the sales of cough and cold products.

      The company experienced an increase in net debt - which is a theme for Bayer during the first quarters of each year. This time, it was related to litigation settlements in the US, which saw the company's net debt touch close to €34B. However, we need to remember that Bayer is a company that sees quarterly sales figures in the double digits (billions). Repaying even a mountain of debt such as this is only a question of time for this massive company. The company, during the quarter, repaid and placed new bonds, and repaid a credit facility drawn in June 2018 for the Monsanto M&A. Overall, the company's fundamentals can be said to be "good".

      In line with this, the company approved the annual payment of a €2/share dividend, which is a cut from a €2.8/share dividend. However, Bayer is a European company that focuses strictly on a percentage payout ratio. The company's target is 30-40% of core EPS, and due to the financial and political backdrop, the company decided to go for a 31.3% Core EPS payout based on a continuing operational EPS of €6.39 for FY20. The dividend yield is therefore around 3.8-4.4% depending on where you look at the share price.

      This, unfortunately, is a bit of a black stain in the company's history when it comes to overall dividends.

      Dividend history

      (Source: Bayer)

      This should be considered prior to investing because analysts do not expect a material improvement in this dividend even during 2021-2022, instead expecting a token €0.02 increase followed by a ~€0.2 increase in 2022 - which isn't exactly what dividend investors might want to hear. At the same time, the payout ratio is likely to increase, as EPS for 2021 is not expected to go anywhere significantly on a YoY basis except down.

      Overall, we can say that Bayer delivered a solid quarter with sales increases in line with improving market conditions. We've received some more clarity regarding the litigation since my last article, though the latest news on this is that uncertainty is still high, following a recent court setback. It's a back-and-forth here that's worth following, but one that I believe will ultimately be settled, as there are very few choices for "not" settling it. Bayer is a company with a solid portfolio and international operations, with a perhaps higher-than-normal FX exposure thanks to these international trends.

      Let's look at how these trends have impacted valuation.
      Bayer - What is the valuation?

      A few ways to look at the valuation for Bayer here. Given the 30%+ improvement since my last article, and the company now exceeding my original PT, we can see the company as a "HOLD" here. However, that would fail to take into consideration shifting market dynamics and overall valuations. We're in a different market situation now than 8 months ago, which contributes to the view I'm about to share.

      Despite significant recovery since October, Bayer is far from fairly valued here. However, FactSet confirms the current EPS outlook for 2021, which is negative based on FX and could impact the valuations we're seeing this year.

      (Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs)

      Since the Monsanto M&A and litigation horror that's been ongoing for years, the company has broken its premium valuation, and should not be considered a company that should trade at a premium multiple - at the very least not until the company has solved some of the ongoing litigation issues. Until then, a 10-12X P/E based on an EPS growth rate of 2.36% annually expected until 2024 is the most we should accept from this company. Even under these circumstances, the company still comes out as undervalued, and a 10X P/E ratio results in an 11.5% annual upside, to a 2024E RoR of 47%.

      (Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs)

      Despite the recovery, therefore, we're still looking at a significant upside even based on a very conservative forecast to its valuation range and results. At a 12X P/E, the same numbers are 18% and 80% respectively, which is a truly excellent sort of upside for any investment.

      Still, these forecasts might be too positive in light of the company's historical volatility. Analyst accuracy is poor, 42% miss ratio on a 2-year 10% MoE-adjusted basis. It doesn't make for the clearest sort of prospects. Add to this the complication of German dividend taxation, the annual as opposed to quarterly payout, and you can see why some investors here are becoming a bit hesitant on investing in Bayer.

      But, perhaps they shouldn't be. Perhaps I should be more positive as well. Signals are all over the place that the company is in fact still undervalued. Analyst forecasts for S&P Global are very rare in their stance here.

      (Source: S&P Global, Google Sheets)

      The upside we're seeing from an analyst's perspective is undeniable. The fact is that analysts have reversed their targets the past year, reflecting the ongoing litigations, FX, and other trends that seem to indicate Bayer experiencing further EPS pressure during the coming years, despite a fundamentally appealing overall portfolio of products.

      This could certainly mean a buying opportunity. In terms of average/normalized P/E, this certainly seems to be the case from a historical perspective.

      (Source: TIKR.com)

      To pay this sort of depressed earnings multiple for this company should be considered cheap, and despite some of the ongoing issues, I believe there to be an upside to Bayer. However, I'm approaching it with care. I'm unwilling to pay more than 9-11X P/E of a 5-year average P/E for the company, given the expected earnings flatness until 2024. A €2/share dividend indicates a current yield of around 3.8%, which isn't great, but it's also higher than some of its peers. Given some of the increased complexity of dividend instability, annual payouts, and German dividend taxes, I'm putting even more on a discount target on Bayer however.

      Using normalized EPS as a base, I get an average annual 5-year EPS of €6.3. This indicates a fair value range for Bayer based on my 9-11X target of €56.73-€69.3. Where you land in this range, if you land in it at all, should depend on how much of a discount you demand for some of the aforementioned complications.

      Still, what's clear to me is that this investment-grade pharma company that operates on an international scale is most definitely a "BUY" here, with an upside of at least 4-5% based on current share price to a 9X normalized 5-year price target.
      Thesis

      As with many other companies I write about, Bayer is a theoretically excellent company with a superb upside. If we return to historical valuations and multiples, investors could take home returns of well over 100% when things are said and done. However, the road to this is fraught with litigations, FX, uncertainty, portfolio restructuring, and some dubious history.

      Investors are justifiably cautious here - as I am. I won't go out and "BUY" Bayer straight away here - but the company is definitely on my watch list, and there are precious few businesses of which this can be said today. The company also fulfills every last one of my criteria.

      This company is overall qualitative.
      This company is fundamentally safe/conservative & well-run.
      This company pays a well-covered dividend.
      This company is currently cheap.
      This company has realistic upside based on earnings growth or multiple expansion/reversion.

      You can make money by investing in Bayer here - which in the end is what I'm all about. Based on the valuation and prospective returns based on any manner of annual EPS trends, your returns would be positive here. That's why the company is a "BUY".

      Be aware, however, that the company comes with a certain amount of circumstances and considerations that require your attention prior to a decision.

      As long as you do these, and are aware of these, I see Bayer as a good investment in this market situation - and in fact, better than most.
      Bayer | 53,66 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 17:57:48
      Beitrag Nr. 13.858 ()
      Seid doch nicht so pessimistisch. Für seine Verhältnisse zieht die Bayer-Share doch zügig nach oben.

      BAYER / XETRA / D / 15.06.21



      Negativ ist, dass der Titel EMA200+GD50 nicht überwinden kann.
      Positiv ist, dass wir über der GD20 bleiben und der Widerstand bei 53,50€ überwunden wurde.
      Ob wir dann heute zu Handelsschluß den Widerstand in einer Unterstützung umswitchen können,
      werden wir sehen, wenn wir darüber bleiben.

      Und wenn ihr mir eine Aussage erlaubt. Hier regen sich ziemlich viele Leute masslos über die Geschäftsführung auf, was man ja ob der Vergangenheit durchaus verstehen kann."Ich" kaufe keine Share, über die ich dann jeden Tag mit Häme&Spott herziehe und alles in die Tonne trete. Würde ich so denken wie einige von euch, wäre die keinen Tag in meinem Depot.

      Da bin ich konsequent und stelle glatt, auch mit realen Verlusten. Und mit dem Geld suche mich mir dann einen anderen aussichtsreichen Kandidaten, von denen es an der Börse reichlich gibt. Dieses täglich Aufplustern ist kindisch und unprofessionell und kostet nur unnötige Ressourcen. Wenn die Aktie euch so nervt, dann verkauft sie und wendet euch Dingen zu, die mehr Spaß und wenn möglich, mehr Rendite bringen.

      Schöne Zeit & gute Kurse
      Bayer | 53,46 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 16:52:36
      Beitrag Nr. 13.857 ()
      DANN HALT OHNE
      Diese radikalen Veränderungen plant Bayer in den USA

      Um Rechtsprobleme für seinen Unkrautvernichter in den USA beizulegen, zieht Bayer eine neue Rezeptur in Erwägung – ohne das hochwirksame, aber viel kritisierte Glyphosat. Am Ende könnte sich das auszahlen.

      In den amerikanischen Gartencentern scheint die Kontroverse um den Unkrautvernichter Glyphosat weit weg. Noch immer dominiert das Produkt Roundup aus dem Hause Bayer die Verkaufsregale. Zerstäuber und Kanister unterschiedlicher Größe kann der Kunde im Geschäft erwerben – ab rund fünf Dollar für die 700-Milliliter-Flasche. In Landover Hills etwa, einem 23 000-Einwohner-Städtchen im US-Bundesstaat Maryland, hätten sie Roundup „immer da“, sagt Verkäufer Hamptons Nursery. Die Nachfrage sei hoch. „Da muss jederzeit jede Menge vorrätig sein.“

      https://www.wiwo.de/my/unternehmen/industrie/dann-halt-ohne-…
      Bayer | 53,55 €
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 15:11:09
      Beitrag Nr. 13.856 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.513.439 von Invest-Trading am 15.06.21 14:53:11Bin wieder mit der Hälfte dabei.
      Bin ja nun auch völlig ratlos, wo der Kurs hin will!!!
      53 oder 54 ?
      Bayer | 53,51 €

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 14:53:11
      Beitrag Nr. 13.855 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.512.659 von mediacool am 15.06.21 13:54:25Hält nur bei Bayer in der Regel nie lange …
      Erstmal auf 54 kommen, das scheint schon sehr schwierig zu sein.
      Bayer | 53,46 €
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 13:54:25
      Beitrag Nr. 13.854 ()
      Huch da kommen gerade die Anschlusskäufe,oder!?!
      Bayer | 53,40 €
      2 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 13:51:52
      Beitrag Nr. 13.853 ()
      Mal was positives in dieser Depression
      Hier mal ein positiver und zuversichtlicher Beitrag aus Seeking Alpha
      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434705-bayer-no-longer-dir…
      Ich kann dieses depressive Gerede in Sachen Baumann oder die sogenannten fehlenden Anschlusskäufe nicht mehr hören. Ich bin zuversichtlich und habe in Bayer bereits 2 oder 3 mal investiert. Da mir die Zuversicht immer wieder abhanden kam habe ich dann getraded. So auch dieses Mal ich bin erneut investiert und möchte dies Ei gentlich bleiben.da liegt halt das eigentliche Problem. Man hat immer wieder enttäuscht und keiner weiß wirklich wann der knoten platzt.
      Aber im Zweifelsfall war es hat ein Trade und sogar mit ordentlichen Gewinn. Investieren wäre mir lieber und entspricht halt mehr meiner Grundhaltung. Von einem Investment würde ich bei Bayer allerdings noch nicht sprechen. So weit sind wir noch nicht.
      Bayer | 53,40 € | Meinung: kaufen
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 13:01:58
      Beitrag Nr. 13.852 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.511.783 von Dreiseitensteak am 15.06.21 12:38:20Das Verkaufssignal sitzt bei Bayer ganz oben :)
      Deine Bewertung ist ja lustig :)

      Setzt man ein normales Multiple auf das EPS an kommt man wohl eher auf 70-80 - ca 20 Abschlag für Glyphosat aktuell…
      Bayer | 53,26 €
      1 Antwort?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 15.06.21 12:38:20
      Beitrag Nr. 13.851 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 68.510.067 von dr-primus am 15.06.21 10:14:56Laut den technischen Signalen, sollte man ja nicht aussteigen 😂 aber das sehe ich gerade bei einigen.

      Heftige Bullenfallen am Markt oder macht der Markt wieder etwas, womit nun keiner so wirklich rechnet und er zieht nochmal kräftig an, zieht den Shortis alles aus.

      Aber was ist Bayer wirklich Wert, wenn man mal die Schulden ausser acht läßt.
      Rechenschieber mal ganz grob.
      31(BW)+5(Cash)+6(EPS)=42Euro .....
      TP 2020 komischerweise genau bei dem Wert.

      Keine Ahnung, absoluter Spielball momentan. Was hat der Markt vor?

      Gewinne machen die, das ist so und Divi zahlen die, das ist auch so.

      Aber Monsanto ist wie das 5te Rad am Wagen 🤣🤣🤣

      Curevac, hat da jemand Gedanken zu, was das an Umsätzen über 5 Jahre bringen könnte und wieviel Gewinn /Aktie ?
      Bayer | 53,19 €
      2 Antworten?Die Baumansicht ist in diesem Thread nicht möglich.
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