FIRSTSOLAR - $1,50 pro Wp - Werden die etablierten Solarzellenhersteller unter Druck kommen? (Seite 167)

[Soulrider82]

New Record for Oerlikon Solar’s Micromorph® Technology

INTERSOLAR MUNICH, May 27, 2009 - Oerlikon Solar, the world's leading supplier of thin film silicon photovoltaic (PV) production equipment, today announced that it has achieved a new record efficiency level for commercial thin film silicon PV modules. Recent test results from Oerlikon Solar's pilot production line in Switzerland show that full-size Micromorph modules (1.4 m2) have 151 Watts initial power, or 11 percent initial power conversion efficiency. This result sets a new industry record for production thin film silicon modules.

Oerlikon Solar was able to consistently reproduce modules with similar record results, demonstrating a stable and scalable process. "This achievement clearly demonstrates Oerlikon Solar's technical leadership and is another key milestone on our path to grid parity", stated Jeannine Sargent, CEO of Oerlikon Solar. Oerlikon Solar has previously announced an ambitious production cost target of USD 0.70 per Watt peak and is on track to achieve this target by end of 2010. Increased module efficiency and power are key contributors to this goal.

The excellent performance of the record modules demonstrates the advantage of Oerlikon Solar's end to end manufacturing solution. Oerlikon Solar's advanced PV technologies and process integration know-how result in an optimized manufacturing solution that is able to achieve higher conversion efficiencies and lower cost of ownership. An example of this technology optimization is Oerlikon Solar's integration of a proprietary process to deposit high-quality transparent conducting oxide (TCO) on the front and back surfaces of the active thin film silicon junction. This TCO is engineered to optimize the performance of the Micromorph technology by improving light transmittance and light scattering, resulting in maximum efficiency and electricity output.

Success through best in class technology

Oerlikon Solar is the world leader in silicon-based thin film solar technology and end-to-end manufacturing solutions with 10 established customers in operation or ramp up worldwide representing 600 MWp of yearly production capacity, enough to power 480,000 households. This record panel is the latest result of this ongoing development program and reinforces Oerlikon Solar's role as a technology and market leader.

http://www.oerlikon.com/ecomaXL/index.php?site=SOLAR_EN_pres…

[R-BgO]

First Solar Vulnerable to a Big Selloff
by: Chris Lau June 14, 2009 | about: ESLR / FSLR / SPWRA / STP

The One Liner:

First Solar (FSLR) faces the daunting pressure of acquiring new customers in new geographies (U.S.) as the quality of existing consumers declines and as ongoing industry pricing pressures on polycrystalline silicon increase.

Summary:

First Solar is the number one solar energy company in the world. Calling for a short-sell/sell recommendation on the top player in any industry would seem to be both risky and foolish.

However, FSLR is a "new" commodity company in an industry that is too richly valued. Its declining cost-management supply business model, while unique and impressive, is not sufficient to justify a high multiple. A high trailing P/E was justified by lower product pricing, healthy customer demand, and government policies resulting in a net 10-fold revenue growth. Past results don't justify future results.

In this research report, I will illustrate why investors should should FSLR at current prices.

Balance Sheet Analysis:

Earnings Per Share - 5 Year Period

* 2008; 2007; 2006; 2005; 2004; 2003
* $4.24; $2.03; $0.07; $(0.13); $(0.39); $(0.78)

Analysis: EPS sky rocketed in 2007 and in 2008 alongside impressive growth in revenue. Compared to 2006, revenue rose almost 500% in 2007, and almost 10,000% in 2008. This was achieved when FSLR lowered reached a critical price/megawatt. The issue now is that its competitors are making the same achievements, decreasing the competitive advantage the company has in this industry.

The average EPS for the 5-year period is $1.01. This is calculated to estimate the company value so that it may be compared against the current market share price. Next, applying a a variety of forecast growth rates we arrive at a range of values:

Growth - Company Value:

* 200% growth - $412.585
* 100% growth - $210.585
* 75% growth - $160.085
* 50% growth - $109.585

Note that the company is still nascent as a public company, so these estimates have minimal reliability.

At a current share price in the ~$180s, if the company disappoints by failing to meet projected growth, the downside 2009 valuation for FSLR is $109.69 - $160. This downside is greater if market discounting is applied. Historically speaking, the green initiative/movement by the government (especially with Obama) added to this "market premium" on the stock price. See the chart and the stock price around the time of the U.S. election (here).

Conversely, FSLR could be worth $412 if it produced 200% returns indefinitely and in a current and future economic environment equivalent to that of 2007-2008. How can any investor assume a 200% growth rate when PV prices are falling and new demand is waning? Note that FSLR has an impressive backlog in orders, but as it will be discussed, 10-15% of those orders face credit risk.

To put it succinctly, FSLR is at best at fair valuation (a market assumption for 100% growth indefinitely) and at worst has more downside than upside.

Company Forecast (Key Figures):

1. Net sales guidance range of $1.9 billion to $2 billion.
2. GAAP operating margin between 31% - 33% (expenses for OptiSolar acquisition is factored in this)

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

The "street" is forecasting an EPS for 2009 is $5.66 and for next year it is $8.91.

I plotted the EPS estimates for 2009 and 2010 against past earnings from 2003. The forecast figures were obtained from Finviz.com: it was a proportionately straight line! That's right. I used an exclamation point in this research report.

If forecasting was this easy, then I would cast the EPS estimates for FSLR, and its current share price, in doubt. The forecasts likely assume recurring revenue and margins are constant, a scenario that needs to be questioned. There is clearly more downside remaining with FSLR.

Let us now dig deeper on to the facts to put into question the validity of the future earnings estimates.

Financial Ratios:

The Good:

* Debt/Equity: 0.14
* EPS This Year: 5.66
* Market Cap: 15.77B
* ROE: 32.64%
* Insider Ownership: 42.94%
* Sales past 5 Years: 229.48%

The Forecast:

* EPS Next Year: 8.91
* Fwd P/E: 20.96

The Bad:

* Book Value/Shr: 20.84
* P/E: 32.99

Figures from Finviz.com

Discussion of Forecast

In its most recent conference call, management repeated many times that it would need to cut costs and improve margins to meet this consensus growth already priced in by the market.

Are the forecast earnings this achievable? This is questionable for two reasons. The questions lie in two general areas: (1) recent quarterly results and (2) fundamental analysis. I will not detail a balance sheet analysis since the metrics are healthy.

(1) Quarterly Results

Briefly, in its most recent quarter, revenue was $418.2M, translating to a diluted EPS of $1.99. These were solid results.

Remember that the key metric in this industry is production amount (megawatts). For FSLR, the company generated 26% more at 220 megawatts. That's up 26% quarter-over-quarter. Capacity/line was up 49 megawatts, up 4% quarter-over-quarter.

The company signed up 479 megawatts in new volumes, with gross margins at 56.3% (up 2.4%). In its conference call (posted on seekingalpha.com), gross margins were sustained by the use of foreign exchange hedges.

Investors need to be aware that these hedges are for 2009 only, and therefore earnings will fluctuate with the Euro. While I am not bullish on the Euro (see here), investors will need to watch more closely the gross margins with FX affects stripped out.

Finally, cash flow at $63.7M sounded healthy. Still, management indicated an increase in accounts receivable and in inventory. If customer accounts show signs of strain, it will further solidify my view on FSLR. For example: year over year, receivables are up ten-fold, and inventory is nearly double. For now, however, it is not a major negative concern in my bearish view for the company since these values are large in percent change, but small in absolute dollar terms.

Investors will need to monitor changes in these two lines on the accounting sheet.

(2) Fundamental Analysis

The PV-specific pricing trend is worrisome for this industry. It is not unnatural for new sectors who experience lower sale price for products due to competition, supply increase, and technological improvements in manufacturing.

However, just how much of demand was due to subsidies from "green" initiatives? FSLR benefited from this in European markets, and is currently pushing into the Americas. More specifically it is pushing into California. This is the state with a government facing massive deficits, problems in its cash flow, and severe problems in the housing market.

To establish a position in the U.S., FSLR needs to 1) obtain incentive from the federal government (subsidies) and 2) natural gas prices must rise.

Geographically, there are constraints. Just where will transmission lines be placed?

Is it possible to develop conventional power projects alongside solar power ones? There aren't even any guidelines or rules established for this. How long is this going to take? That will add to uncertainty to the stock price, if U.S.-based growth is priced into the stock.

Another worry for FSLR is its EXISTING customers. The company is seeing up to 10-15% defaults. Therefore, the market price of FSLR is dependent on the perceived health of the economy and the banking/credit system. Any more bad new in these areas (which I believe will be coming - see my blog) will push FSLR stock price down. So, if management is cautious with its customers, why are shareholders rewarding FSLR with a rich current P/E of ~30x ?

One thing I like about the company is that it manages its forecasts assuming declining polycrystalline silicon costs. the company compares it to its own cost reduction road-map. That way the company can manage its margins against cost advantages.

No wonder FSLR is #1 (the company sees a manufacturing cost at ~$0.65 a watt by 2012, translating to a 35-55% cost advantage).

Another "positive" for FSLR is high natural gas prices. Right now it is low (relative to oil prices). I believe that oil prices are up only due to currency/money flow, and not due to demand/consumption dynamics. Therefore, natural gas prices will remain low. This is negative for FSLR. (See here.)

Conclusion:

I am skeptical that the company will be able to achieve 200% sales and earnings growth for the next 5 years, while maintaining margins in the absence of currency hedges beyond 2010. My price target is $110, based on a projected growth rate that is 4-fold less than the street view.

This is a 40% decrease from current levels. I plan to increase my SHORT position by up to 10% as political, economic, and fundamental changes prove my investment thesis correct.

Risks to Price Target:

Due to positive correlation to commodity pricing, especially oil, commodity strength is a risk. Risk exists for competitor polysilicon prices to fall, undermining FSLR's low-cost production advantage.

[R-BgO]

zum Shorten wärs mir noch zu heiß, aber der Preis enthält aktuell mE sehr viel mehr Chancen als Risiken...:

von Thin-film-today:


Coping with a fall in polysilicon prices

Spot prices on the solar industry’s key raw material, polysilicon, have halved since January, giving a leg up to solar panels that rely heavily on the material, according to a report filed by Reuters.

Thin-film solar panels, made with little or no polysilicon, are starting to lose their competitive edge over China-made silicon-based modules, which are more efficient in transforming the sun's rays into electricity.

“First Solar is still the undisputed leader, but finally, someone’s competing with them,” reportedly said Macquarie analyst Kelly Dougherty.

Intensifying price competition is making scale all-important, hurting the chances of start-ups, she said.

Late last month, an analyst pointed out that First Solar’s stock will be under pressure due to the decline in polysilicon prices amid weak demand in Europe.

In a note to clients, FBR Capital Markets analyst Mehdi Hosseini said the firm’s recent research shows that with polysilicon prices down to $65 per kilogram, some customers in Germany are already considering switching from First Solar's products to silicon-based photovoltaic.

“We believe we have learned of one top customer of FSLR that has already switched to a Si-based module vendor for one of its projects currently under construction,” wrote Hosseini. He added given the increased downside risk, the stock will face significant challenges over the next several months.

[Stoni_I]

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[Stoni_I]

Achtung! - Aus dem Netz:

First Solar: Trouble At Major Customer Ecostream
Posted by Eric Savitz

First Solar (FSLR) is likely to feel the effects of the financial troubles at the parent company of Utrecht-based Ecostream, which is a significant customer. This is going to be a little convoluted but stay with me here.

According to Gordon Johnson, an analyst at Hapoalim Securities, Ecostream recently has accounted for 7%-8% of First Solar’s assets. The parent of Ecostream, also based in Utrecht, is a company called Econcern, which in late May filed for bankruptcy, or as they say in Utrecht, the company “filed for suspension of payments.” And there is now new evidence that Ecostream is being hurt by the troubles of its parent.

Ubbink Solar Modules, a unit of a German company called Centrosolar, announced today that it is closing a solar module manufacturing plant in Doesburg, the Netherlands. Why does that matter? Because Centrosolar is shutting the plant due to the loss of its business with Ecostream, its principal customer, as a result of the “suspension of payment order” concerning Econcern.

So if Ecostream isn’t paying Ubbink, it seems unlikely they are paying First Solar.

And that’s not good for FSLR and its holders.

FSLR today is down $7.62, or 4.1%, to $176.88.

[Fatalis]

Langsam erreichen wir wieder Einstiegskurse. Bei Suntech bin ich jetzt raus und habe FSLR schon die ganze Zeit auf meiner Watchlist. Ich glaube zwar dass die Korrektur noch ein bisschen anhalten wird, aber ich bin mir sicher, dass es in den nächsten Wochen wieder aufwärts gehen wird. Der Insiderverkauf bewegt mich eigentlich nicht. Bin aber sehr dankbar, da er mir wahrscheinlich einen guten Einstiegskurs einbringt. Anfang des Jahres hat der Verkauf von 4 Mill. Aktien auch den Kurs auf 85€ gedrückt. Diesmal glaube ich zwar nicht dass es soweit runter geht, aber so um die 110 € würde ich die erste Posi kaufen.

[R-BgO]

First Solar will expandieren

Von Heinz Kannenberg

Das US-Unternehmen First Solar hält auch in der Krisenzeit an seinem Plan fest, seine Produktionskapazitäten am Standort Frankfurt auszubauen. Das bekräftigte Präsident Bruce Sohn am Rande der weltweit größten Solarmesse Intersolar in München. Eine Entscheidung über eine weitere Investition in Frankfurt ist jedoch noch nicht endgültig gefallen, sagte der Leiter des Berlin-Büros von First Solar David Worthman. Die US-Firma beschäftigt derzeit rund 600 Mitarbeiter in Frankfurt.

Das US-Unternehmen First Solar will trotz wirtschaftlicher Flaute weiter expandieren. Präsident Bruce Sohn zeigte sich auf der Intersolar in München optimistisch über die Geschäftsaussichten des weltweit größten Dünnschicht-Produzenten. Man sei von der Krise berührt, aber nicht betroffen.

Nach Informationen der Märkischen Oderzeitung hofft First Solar, in Kürze den Zuschlag für ein großes Solarprojekt in den USA zu erhalten. Wenn dies eintreten sollte, wolle das Unternehmen seine Produktionskapazitäten deutlich ausbauen. Die Stimmung sei gut, sagte Bruce Sohn in München. First Solar wolle weiter expandieren, sagte er. "Frankfurt (Oder) ist dabei ganz vorn im Rennen", sagte Bruce Sohn. Brandon Mitchener, Pressesprecher von First Solar, bestätigte diese Einschätzung am Freitag am Rande eines Besuches von Wirtschaftsminister Ulrich Junghanns (CDU) im Frankfurter Unternehmen.

Der Leiter des Berlin-Büros von First Solar, David Worthmann, wollte sich zu konkreten Expansionszielen des Unternehmens nicht äußern. Er bestätigte jedoch solche Ziele. Es gäbe allerdings keine Entscheidungen über Produktionserweiterungen oder Investitionen an neuen Standorten. "First Solar ist an einem weiteren Ausbau seiner Kapazitäten interessiert. Aber wann und wo, das ist noch nicht entschieden", sagte er.

First Solar hat sich bereits beim Bau der ersten Fabrik eine Option für eine benachbarte Fläche gesichert. Wortmann bestätigte, dass für dieses Grundstück alle notwendigen Erlaubnisse für den Bau einer zweiten Fabrik vorliegen. "Wenn es eine Entscheidung für eine weitere Investition geben sollte, dann könnten wir auch ganz schnell in Frankfurt bauen", sagte er.

Die Konzernspitze in den USA sei sehr zufrieden mit der Unternehmensentwicklung am Standort Frankfurt (Oder), sagte Wortmann. Die ursprünglich geplanten Kennziffern seien alle weit übertroffen worden. 100 Megawatt Jahresleistung sollten mal das Solar-Werk verlassen, inzwischen betrage die Jahreskapazität 192 Megawatt. Im Frankfurter Werk arbeiten inzwischen rund 600 Mitarbeiter. Mit knapp 400 Beschäftigten startete die Fabrik. Im Konzernverbund ist die Frankfurter Fabrik inzwischen die produktivste, heißt es aus Unternehmenskreisen.

First Solar baut derzeit auch vier Fabriken in Malaysia. Drei Produktionsstätten sind bereits in Betrieb, die vierte soll Ende des Jahres fertig sein. Ein großer Teil der dort Beschäftigten wurde und wird im Frankfurter Werk ausgebildet.

Stephan Lubomierski vom Investorcenter Ostbrandenburg schätzte nach Gesprächen auf der Intersolar ein, dass der Solar-Standort Frankfurt sich in einer Pool-Position befindet, wenn es um Kapazitätserweiterungen in Europa geht. Es habe auf der Intersolar auch interessante Gespräche mit einem japanischen Modulhersteller gegeben, der nach einem Produktionsstandort in Europa sucht. Dabei seien Frankreich, Belgien und Frankfurt in Deutschland im Gespräch. Das Unternehmen plane eine Jahreskapazität bis zu 200 Megawatt.

Lubomierski berichtete auch von Verhandlungen mit weiteren potenziellen Investoren. So sei man auch mit einem indischen Solar-Unternehmen, das an der Nutzung von Reinsträumen in Frankfurt interessiert ist, im Gespräch gewesen. Ein erster Kontakt sei während des Besuchs von Wirtschaftsminister Ulrich Junghanns (CDU) und dem Chef des Investorcenters Martin Wilke im vergangenen Jahr in Indien hergestellt worden. Auch Gespräche mit einem kanadischen Unternehmen fanden statt.

[tonycat]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.287.489 von SLGramann am 30.05.09 08:56:39

Völlig korrekte Einstellung wie ich meine; es kann allerdings sein, daß First Solar noch mal 20-50% nach oben geht, aber ich sehe auch jede Menge andererer Unternehmen für die die Herstellungskosten a la First Solar keine besondere Hürde darstellen (aber der Wirkungsgrad, das Marketing und einfach die derzeitige Marktphase...).

[sneake]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.288.017 von SLGramann am 30.05.09 12:08:32

hoffentlich bekomm ich das mit.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.287.719 von sneake am 30.05.09 10:25:16

Korrekt.

(Sie werden indes gelistet sein. Später. )