FIRSTSOLAR - $1,50 pro Wp - Werden die etablierten Solarzellenhersteller unter Druck kommen? (Seite 19)

[R-BgO]

First Solar in a big hole over 2017

Aug 04, 2016

By Mark Osborne, Senior News Editor



Mark Osborne has nearly three decades of experience in covering both the semiconductor and photovoltaics manufacturing industries. In his current roles as senior news editor for PV Tech and sister technical journal, Photovoltaics International, Mark covers the key developments in the PV industry on a global level and continues to provide insight and analysis via his editor's blog.


First Solar in a big hole over 2017

With First Solar’s revenue and shipment guidance unchanged and basically locked-in for 2016, despite solar industry dynamics becoming increasingly fluid, filling demand for 3GW of thin-film module capacity in 2017 has become a priority for management as a rather large hole in bookings is proving difficult to fill. Image: First Solar

With First Solar’s revenue and shipment guidance unchanged and basically locked-in for 2016, despite solar industry dynamics becoming increasingly fluid, filling demand for 3GW of thin-film module capacity in 2017 has become a priority for management as a rather large hole in bookings is proving difficult to fill.

In reporting second quarter 2016 financial results, First Solar reiterated previous revenue guidance for the full-year reaching US$3.8 billion to US$4.0 billion with module shipment guidance of 2.9GW to 3GW.

The company is therefore retaining manufacturing utilisation rates at 100% and squeezed-out a 1% quarter-on-quarter production rate gain that reached 784.8MW in the second quarter, up from 774MW in the prior quarter. Average CdTe module efficiency (16.2%) gains were flat with the prior quarter.


2017 challenges

First Solar’s management had previously noted that bookings (system sales and module sales) for business generating revenue, specifically in 2017, would be an issue, due to a number of factors.

Firstly, its ‘legacy’ US utility project business which had been a core part of its business in recent years, notably some of the largest projects ever built would be winding down and the company had admitted in the past that it had taken its eye of the ball in securing alternative business to fill the hole this created.

Secondly, the expected expiration of the US ITC incentive pushed out project development decisions and that last minute extension of the ITC at the end of 2016, came too late to really help First Solar with projects that could be started and completed in 2017.

Thirdly, the dynamics of the solar industry are shifting and these changes occur faster than often expected. Several factors in this aspect include looming module overcapacity, due to continued capacity expansion announcements that depress pricing and can delay project developer’s timings on starting projects.

Volatile market dynamics are also a factor, with the US expected to double installations in 2016 to around 14GW but decline back to 2015 levels of around 7.5GW in 2017.

First Solar has therefore had to focus on international markets for 2017 and beyond and with growth markets such as India and the MENA region driving down PPA’s and system prices to the lowest levels ever seen, creates a highly competitive and shrinking margin environment. Picking the right projects to build or supply modules for becomes increasingly challenging in the face of diminishing rewards.


Filling the hole

The fact that First Solar has continued to delay providing 2017 revenue and shipment guidance demonstrates the challenges in hand for the company. Management noted in the latest earnings call that 2017 currently remained ‘opaque’ and deferred providing better insight until much later in 2016, without being specific.

How much business First Solar has secured for revenue generation in 2017 is not clear but a certain level of clarity is possible.

According to Deutsche Bank analyst, Vishal Shah First Solar secured around 500MW of early-stage bookings for 2017 revenue generation as well as around 450MW of mid to late-stage bookings for next year during the first quarter of 2016.

Management noted in its second quarter earnings call that it booked around a further 250MW of systems projects, yet only around a third of the volume was scheduled for 2017 deliveries.

The company noted it was targeting 1GW of systems business in 2017, yet around only 400MW was contracted for next year, although more was expected.

First Solar also noted that mid to late-stage booking opportunities stood at 1.8GW, with almost 90% outside the US. Over 400MW of awarded but not booked volume was included in this figure, according to the company.

Management also noted that the bookings total in the first six months of 2016 totalled only 800MW, although almost 600MW had been booked in July alone. However, management did not say whether these bookings applied to 2017 revenue generation.


Module dependence

With the goal of 1GW of system bookings revenue in 2017, emphasis on third party module sales becomes increasingly likely. Global module ASP decline issues aside, global end market demand growth is becoming increasingly fragile, save higher than expected utility-scale development in India and MENA.

Luckily, First Solar expects to have around 1GW of Series 5 module capacity available in 2017, which significantly improves its cost competitiveness at a time ASPs are expected to be under significant pressure. However, selling 2GW of its mainstream Series 4 modules become the issue.

According to management, the Series 4 sales strategy includes a focus on hot, humid climates due to the temperature coefficient advantages of CdTe thin-film modules over conventional c-Si products. Select market opportunities that have not become slim margin markets are therefore the focus.

However, that comes with some challenges of its own.

“We're looking for pockets of strength where we can sell through and capture highest-margin opportunity entitlement that we have relative to what's going on in the marketplace, but we're very well aware of how aggressive some of the pricing has become,” noted First Solar’s CEO, Mark Widmar.

[R-BgO]

First Solar restructuring EPC and O&M operations with sale of skytron energy

By Mark Osborne Aug 04, 2016 10:14



Mark Widmar, CEO of First Solar said that its planned manufacturing and business shift to Series 5 thin-film modules and greater emphasis on module sales compared to project development and EPC work, would mean the company would reduce its internal EPC workforce.

Leading CdTe thin-film producer First Solar is undertaking a further round of restructuring that targets its EPC and O&M operations after its decision to shutdown its TetraSun crystalline silicon operations in Malaysia in early July.

During a conference call to discuss second quarter financial results, Mark Widmar, CEO of First Solar said that its planned manufacturing and business shift to Series 5 thin-film modules and greater emphasis on module sales compared to project development and EPC work, would mean the company would reduce its internal EPC workforce.

“Historically, we have self-performed EPC on the majority of our systems projects as well as provided EPC services to third-party developers using First Solar module technology,” noted Widmar in the earnings call. “The evolution of our module form factor combined with the lower line of system projects in 2017 implies a reduced need for internal EPC services and requires a reduction in our EPC workforce. While these decisions are difficult and will impact a number of dedicated associates, this is a necessary step.”

However, Widmar also said that “re-focusing efforts” would include exploring opportunities to sell its O&M business unit, skytron energy. First Solar acquired skytron energy from AEG Power Solutions in 2014.

“Our original intent in acquiring skytron was to expand our global O&M footprint into Europe and supplement our existing capabilities. Over the past two years competition for O&M contracts in Europe, combined with the progression of First Solar's internal O&M capability, particularly as it relates to smaller scale solar plants, has changed how skytron fits into our strategy going forward. Altogether we expect charges of US$105 million to US$120 million related to TetraSun and the actions we are announcing today,” added Widmar.

First Solar’s CEO also highlighted that its leaner EPC operations would continue to develop next-generation BOS (Balance of Systems) technologies, such as MVDC (Medium Voltage Direct Current) systems for utility-scale PV power plants as this was a key part of its future project development business.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.990.555 von crimson am 04.08.16 16:08:00

Quartalszahlen

[crimson]

Was ist denn jetzt los`?

[crimson]

Ich vermute, die US-amerikanischen Solartitel leiden schon jetzt darunter, dass Trump Präsident werden könnte.

[R-BgO]

First Solar Shifts Malaysian Production Capacity to Series 5 Assembly

TetraSun product line discontinued to accommodate reallocation


TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) announced today that it is reallocating production capacity at its Kulim, Malaysia, facility to support a new assembly line dedicated to the company's recently announced Series 5 thin film photovoltaic module offering. As a result, First Solar will end production of its TetraSun crystalline silicon solar panel product currently manufactured there, and expects to incur impairment and related charges of approximately $90 million to $110 million, substantially all of which is expected to be non-cash. These actions are expected to reduce First Solar's operating expenses by $2 million to $4 million this year and $8 million to $10 million annually going forward.

The shift in production capacity is driven by First Solar's long-range business plan, which focuses on maximizing the company's core technology based on the thin film Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), according to Chief Operating Officer Tymen de Jong.

"Over the past two years, execution of our CdTe technology roadmap has positioned the product as the industry leader for utility-scale solar, as well as established a promising path into the future. The Series 5 module, and the Series 6 module still in concept development, are game-changing products that position us for exciting growth. They require the full attention of our manufacturing operations," said de Jong.

"TetraSun is a sound technology for space constrained rooftops, and served largely as a hedge against CdTe technology competitiveness that had challenged us in the past," he added. "With the success of our CdTe roadmap reflected in our record 22.1% cell efficiency, along with the proven higher energy yield and superior performance inherent in our thin film technology, that hedge is no longer needed."

With this production transition, virtually all of the Kulim production associates previously assigned to the TetraSun line will move to the Series 5 assembly line, which will be in full operational mode by early 2017.

[Pebbles]

First Solar: Charttechnisch ein Leckerbissen

Zumindest charttechnisch ist ein Anstieg des Kurses nach der starken Konsolidierung m. E. vorgezeichnet, zudem auch die Zahlen bei First Solar stimmig sind und sich die Firma auf Großanlagen spezialisiert hat und im asiatischen Raum Fuß gefasst hat.

[Pebbles]

Noch gibt es m. E. gute Einstiegskurse

Auszug aus: https://www.fool.de/2016/05/20/3-solaraktien-die-du-kaufen-u…

Dieses Unternehmen hat sich immer auf den Gewinn konzentriert. Während es sinnvoll ist, dass sich Rivalen um ihre neuen Produktlinien und Marktanteile sorgen, war First Solar nicht gewillt, sein starkes Finanzmodel zu opfern und hat in sieben der letzten acht Quartale positive Gewinne berichtet.

Wie die meisten Unternehmen in einer aufkommenden Branche hat First Solar Hürden überwinden müssen – die Panel-Technologie des Unternehmens ist etwas nach hinten gefallen und hat erst vor Kurzem wieder Anschluss an die Konkurrenz gefunden. Aber mit den Jahren hat sich First Solars Geschäft konsequent verbessert. Der jährliche Umsatz ist in den letzten fünf Jahren um über 30 % gestiegen und sein reines Einkommen um 56 %.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.969.415 von R-BgO am 30.10.15 13:18:45

heute meine Optionsposition wieder komplettiert:

hatte im Januar short-put@50$ gemacht,

heute dazu wieder die Aktie für $48,17 gekauft und short-call@50$ ebenfalls bis Jan 2017.


Finde die Prämie mit 6,75 sehr hoch (=14% für 7 Monate)

[Pebbles]

Ein weiterer interessanter Beitrag zu First Solar

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3974080-future-first-solar?a…