FIRSTSOLAR - $1,50 pro Wp - Werden die etablierten Solarzellenhersteller unter Druck kommen? (Seite 194)

[MontPelerin]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.010.363 von Dere am 01.05.08 18:26:31

Sehr guter Artikel! Danke Dere. Wo ist der her kopiert? Yahoo? Finde es immer wieder fast schon beschämend, auf welchem Niveau in USA diskutiert wird - fachlich und stilisisch. Wenn man sich dagegen hier den Durchschnitt bei Wso anschaut... na ja... (aber sind ja alle blöd, die Amis - zumindest das wissen wir ja ganz genau ).

Ich würde nur ergänzen wollen, dass FSLR im TF-Bereich und auch speziell im TF-CdTe-Bereich sehr wahrscheinlich die längste Zeit allein gewesen ist. Die Q-Cells-Tochter Calyxo produziert in der 25 MW-Pilotlinie jetzt offenbar wirklich Module. Für Linie 2 wird der Baugrund vorbereitet und man sucht schon Personal. Diese Linie wird über 60 MW haben und kann mit dieser Kapazität einfach geclont werden. Billiger wird Calyxo voraussichtlich auch sein, weil sie keinen Vakuum-Prozess benötigen. Wenn alles klappt, hat FSLR nächstes Jahr seinen Meister gefunden.

Und wenn nicht Q-Cells bzw. Calyxo, dann werden andere kommen.

20 Milliarden sind zu viel für FSLR - so gut das Unternehmen auch ist. 10, vielleicht 12 Milliarden Dollar würde ich mir gefallen lassen, aber nicht 20 und mehr.

[pcbanker]

was ist denn heute los? Warum geht es so weit runter? Die Zahlen waren doch OK.

[Dere]

How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
by: Trader Mark posted on: May 01, 2008 | about stocks: FSLR

Despite the incredulous valuation First Solar (FSLR) continues to do enough to make shareholders happy. Let me be the first to say, despite my early entry into solar (about 1.5 years ago), I've constantly underestimated this specific name, and missed the boat - we've held it in the fund briefly, but since I'm not a "growth at all costs" guy, but a "growth at reasonable cost" guy, I've had a hard time holding this (similar to Baidu.com (BIDU) where there is no reasonable metric of valuation which explains the stock price.)

My worry with First Solar is simply an expectations game - they are reaching the stage that within a quarter or two they will finally be hitting the wall in terms of "yes we are growing at an incredible rate" BUT "investors expected us to grow even more".... when that quarter happens, the momentum guys will flee en masse and you'll see a large drop off in the stock price. I thought this quarter might be that quarter, since the CEO indicated in the past that in the 1st half 2008 there would be more flattish growth....but not yet.

However, sequential growth (that is, one quarter out) might be "modest" per the CEO's comments; and this stock is not priced for modest sequential growth. You can start reading between the lines in their guidance regarding this situation - while they keep raising future guidance it's not nearly the pace of "surprise" as in the past. So I still see this as a potential risk, not from a company execution standpoint but a stock standpoint.

* First Solar Inc (FSLR) raised its full-year 2008 revenue forecast to between $975 million and $1.05 billion from its previous estimate of $900 million to $950 million, Chief Financial Officer Jens Meyerhoff told a conference call on Wednesday.
* The company, which makes thin-film solar products, raised its expected production forecast to between 420 and 460 megawatts of solar modules from its forecast issued in February of 400 to 430 megawatts
* Meyerhoff told the conference call the company expects its second-quarter revenues to rise "modestly" from the first quarter level.

Analysts are currently pegged at $2.53 for 2008 EPS. I'll be generous and say they can do $3.00 - the stock is priced at 100x forward earnings. And 23x revenue. I know bulls will say, that does not matter - and thus far except for a few months - it has not mattered. I'm as big of a bull on solar in the long run as you will find (I do expect some road bumps in the next few years, however), but these are not sustainable valuations.

In 2009, analysts have the company growing to $5.12 EPS - I'll say the analysts are wrong and FSLR can do $7.... that means the stock is now trading at 43x estimates almost 2 years out. The "law of large numbers" will eventually hit First Solar as it has hit all great growth companies, even Mr Google (GOOG)... once you get to a certain size you cannot just keep doubling revenue every year. I think that is going to be the issue for First Solar between 2009 and 2010; growth should drop to a still excellent 40-60% range - but you are paying a much higher multiple for those earnings.

Further, all its brethren on the polysilicon side who have been hampered by sky high costs are going to see relief by that point (2009-2010) and their costs are going to fall through the floor - so the competitive atmosphere will be very different than it is now in my opinion. But that is neither here or there for now; it continues to execute and one cannot have any qualms with the scintillating growth - it's just a matter of what price do you pay for that growth? And how much more upside can we squeeze out from here? This is always our question on every stock - what is the upside potential versus downside risk - I believe risk is beginning to become more of a factor as upside surprises are becoming harder to reach (simply due to law of large numbers). Again, let me reiterate - execution has been flawless.

* First Solar Inc. said Wednesday that first-quarter earnings spiked, beating Wall Street expectations, as the solar module maker's revenue more than doubled.
* For the first quarter ended March 29, earnings surged to $46.6 million, or 57 cents per share, from $5 million, or 7 cents per share, in the prior year. Quarterly revenue more than doubled to $196.9 million, from $66.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2007.
* Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast first-quarter earnings of 47 cents per share on revenue of $183.6 million.
* Operating expenses jumped 83 percent to $46.2 million as selling, general and administrative expenses more than doubled.
* The company's foreign sales benefited from the weaker U.S. dollar.

[meinolf67]

First Solar Turns Up The Heat
Carl Gutierrez, 04.30.08, 6:15 PM ET

First Solar kept on shining through its first quarter.

"The company's having a hard time doing anything wrong," said Mark Bachman, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities. "It's in a class by itself ... It has one of the best products led by one of the best management teams, and it is yet to have any operational hiccups that has dissuaded anyone from investing in the stock." One of the biggest fears for investors that own First Solar (nasdaq: FSLR - news - people ) stems from the construction of several factories in Malaysia. Investors want to make sure everything is going according to plan, and if the company can bring the factories to operation they have a number of contracts to bring modules to the market. Yet, any "hiccup" will alter the current forecasts.

The Phoenix-based company's first quarter earnings soared to $46.6 million, or 57 cents per share, from $5.0 million, or 7 cents per share, reported in last year's corresponding quarter. The earnings rode on the back of a 194.3% increase in sales to $196.9 million from $66.9 million reported last year.

The results were also well ahead of Wall Street's expectations. According to a poll taken by Thomson Financial, analysts on average had expected earnings of $37.8 million, or 47 cents per share, with sales of $183.6 million.

Despite the company's excellent performance, First Solar's shares rose only 2.6%, or $7.03, to $291.95, in late-afternoon trading. Although the company's stock rose as high as 8.0% to $307.80 in early trading, nearly surpassing its 52-week high of $308.24, Bachman speculated it fell on profit taking.

"A stock with gains this big leave people wondering when to take their money off the table," Bachman said. First Solar's management, the analyst added, was also one of the few who were willing to say that there was a less than 50% chance that the investment tax credit legislation, commonly referred to as ITC, will pass by the end of the year.

"A negative outcome on ITC would basically cause a paralysis in the installation business," Bachman said. Unlike most legislation, ITC legislation is being stymied by electoral, rather than partisan, politics. Ironically though, First Solar's, will be able to survive, if unhappily, because so much of the industry is outside of the United States.

"It's tough to say it can't be affected," Bachman said, "but once investors figure the lack of exposure to the U.S. market, it will quickly outperform everyone else in the group." The company's current growth engines are overseas in countries like Spain, Germany, and Italy, but that's not to say First Solar doesn’t have its eyes on the U.S. The company plans on address its home country in 2009.

[meinolf67]

run-rate per line 45MW/a !!!!!!

[meinolf67]

CC:

Production-cost: 1,14$
Wirkungsgrad: 10,6%
Malaysia1 rampt


975-1015$ Umsatz in 2008

[meinolf67]

Sticking with North American Palladium
by: Mark Anthony posted on: April 30, 2008 | about stocks: AGU / FSLR / JRCC / MOS / NILSY.PK / PAL / PCU / PJC / POT / SWC


A fantastic breaking news from PAL, North American Palladium, on the evening of April 29, 2008 prompted me to write this article.

Meanwhile the agriculture selloff of the past two days requires some explanation since my last article. Of course, all eyes are on FSLR on Wednesday for their earnings release. You remember that I predict that FSLR could go out of business altogether in a few years, due to a global tellurium shortage. Goldman Saches (GS) sold off virtually their entire stake in FSLR at the end of last year, while Piper Jaffray (PJC) issued an upgrade on FSLR. This market is a strange place, isn't it? But we all know today's market is extremely rigged. If PJC upgraded FSLR to $340 target, then it will be pumped to that target. But the reality will prevail at the end of day. How many people even bother to contact FSLR and asked for a quantitative clarification on their tellurium supply? I am still waiting for a response from them and I am ready to acknowledge mistake if they can show me with data they have adequate tellurium supply. I encourage them to go public on the tellurium issue!

[meinolf67]

Verbrauch Te : ca. 0,1g/W = 100kg/MW

bei 300,-/kg sind das 3c pro Watt...



Tellurium holding at high levels in China
Exchange rates used in this story
Date: 2008-04-22
USD RMB EUR GBP
USD 1 7.0075 0.6307 0.5023
RMB 0.1431 1 0.09026 0.07188

BEIJING (Metal-Pages) 29-Apr-08. Prices for tellurium ingot have been holding at high levels over the last few days on the back of tight domestic supply.

Chinese market participants told Metal-Pages that values of the 4N metal are ranging at around Rmb 2,200-2,300/kg ($316-330/kg), similar to prices seen in the last few weeks, and some sources reported that a pricing level of around Rmb 2,400/kg is also visible right now.

A Guangzhou-based supplier confirmed the situation. "We are currently offering Rmb 2,400/kg for the ingot, and some was concluded at Rmb 2,300/kg in the middle of this month," said an executive of the southern supplier.

"Right now suppliers are offering around Rmb 2,400-2,600/kg for the metal, while most of them have no stocks available," said an official of a northern consumer. "As a result there have been few real deals concluded recently on the market albeit with high prices," added the official.

In the meantime, the source also suggested that prices of around Rmb 2,300/kg are acceptable for many downstream buyesr now. "But it is currently so difficult to get the metal at that level, and some supppliers predicted that the prices would continue going up in the next few weeks," he said.

[meinolf67]

Tellurium prices stabilise
Exchange rates used in this story
Date: 2008-04-22
USD RMB EUR GBP
USD 1 7.0075 0.6307 0.5023
RMB 0.1431 1 0.09026 0.07188

LONDON (Metal-Pages) 29-Apr-08. The tellurium market has fallen back from recent highs but continues to hold up at relatively firm price levels due to tight supply, market sources said on Tuesday.

The price for 99.99% grade tellurium was quoted at $ 300-320/kg compared with a range of $ 330-340/kg quoted at the beginning of the month.

A European trader said: "The tellurium market is trading at around $ 300-320/kg, the lowest we have heard is $ 290/kg. The market has come down a little but it will be relatively stable in the next few months or see another increase because supply is extremely tight. Large quantities are not available, we can only obtain about 300-500 kg a month."

"Our partner is not willing to give us new offers until mid May because he is hoping for higher prices," the trader added.

However, a UK trader dealing with a lower purity material said tellurium had gone down. She quoted a price of $ 260/kg for 3N material saying that the price for that grade went up so quickly that it is seeing a natural correction.

[Kubanisch_Rauchen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.002.034 von meinolf67 am 30.04.08 14:22:44

Der Markt feiert wieder ... mal sehen wo heute abend der Kurs stehen bleibt. Die FED kommt ja auch noch dazu ... helfend