Die Wahrheit über das Öl - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[GNawracala]

Tuesday, January 16th, 2007

The Truth about Oil
By Mike Schaefer

JACKSON, WY -- According to the U.S. Department of Energy\'s special report, the world will face "peak oil" by 2015. But many of the world\'s best informed professionals think the end is much closer than that. Some, like Matthew Simmons, think that it has already passed as far back as 25 years ago. And their reasoning is disconcertingly solid.

Over in the Middle East the oil fields are already using water-flooding, a version of advanced oil recovery, to get out what oil they have left. That is a major sign that they have passed their peak of easily extractable oil.

This is especially true in Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis have over 300 recognized oil reservoirs. But 90% of the country\'s oil production comes from only five fields discovered between 1940 and 1965. They are:

* Abqaiq Field (official reserve estimate: 12 billon barrels)
* Safaniya-Khafji Field (official reserve estimate: 30 billon barrels)
* Berri Field (official reserve estimate: 12 billon barrels)
* Manifa Field (official reserve estimate: 11 billon barrels)
* And the granddaddy of them all: Ghawar Field (official
reserve estimate: 70 billon barrels)

Ghawar is so large that its production accounts for about 60% of all Saudi Arabian oil. No wonder that, among the many prolific oil fields in the Middle East, the giant Ghawar field stands out as the region\'s crown jewel.

The massive field was discovered in 1948. Production at Ghawar began two years later and reached a peak of 5.7 million barrels per day in 1981. This is the highest sustained oil production rate ever achieved by any single oil field in history.

During the mid and late 1980s, Ghawar\'s production rate fell as it was restricted for market reasons. But by 1996, with the development of two other areas in the southern part of the field, production went back up above five million per day.

Since its discovery, Ghawar has produced more than 55,000 million barrels of the black goopy stuff. And there\'s still more to be found deep under the earth. But no one is sure exactly how much crude the Ghawar oil field still contains. Like I mentioned before, there\'s a lot of evidence that suggests the official oil reserve numbers put out by the Saudi Arabian government have been fudged on purpose. So it\'s quite likely that there\'s not as much oil at Ghawar as the Saudis say. In fact, there\'s probably a lot less. And for the oil-starved economies of the world, that\'s seriously bad news.

But it gets worse . . .

Water, Water Everywhere

In Saudi Arabia, seawater is injected into oil fields to increase pressure and stimulate production.

Now, normally only 30% of the oil in a reservoir can be extracted. But water injection increases that percentage-known as the recovery factor-and maintains the production rate of a reservoir over a longer period of time.

Over time, however, the volume of water that is lifted along with the oil increases, decreasing the volume of oil proportionately until, eventually, what flows out of the reservoir is almost pure water and the field is no longer worth operating.

Now here\'s the bad news . . .

Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia and Ghawar\'s operator, is currently injecting a staggering 7 million barrels of sea water per day back into the Ghawar field in order to prop up pressure.

And at the Offshore Technology Conference a few months ago, experts claimed that Ghawar was producing about 55% water, that is, more than half the fluid brought up the well!

For now Ghawar is still far too productive to abandon. But because of increasing problems with managing the water, it is becoming very costly to maintain. One day in the very foreseeable Future it will become uneconomical to extract Ghawar\'s oil and the field will be abandoned.

Only 821 Days of Ghawar Oil Left

The "official" reserve estimate at Ghawar is about 70 billion barrels-about 12% of the world\'s total. Yet, given the possible numbers fudging that\'s been going on, who\'s to say how much oil is really still there?

But the heck with it. Let\'s give the Saudis the benefit of the doubt, and let\'s assume that there really are 70 billion barrels of crude in the ground at Ghawar. Shoot . . . let\'s even assume they\'ll be able to get every last drop of crude out of the ground.

So we have 70 billion barrels of oil, right?

So what!

According to the Energy Information Administration, the world consumes about 85.29 million barrels of crude per day.

That hypothetical 70 billion barrels at Ghawar would only last the world 821 days!

You read that right-the largest oil field in the world, under the best of circumstances, holds only enough oil to last the world just over two years!

And that figure hasn\'t even taken into account the ever increasing worldwide demand.

Granted, Ghawar isn\'t the only oil-producing field around. Still, it is the undisputed heavyweight champ when it comes to oil fields. And like they say, if the head dies, the body will soon follow.

Prognosis: Terminal
Today, the giant field produces about five million barrels per day-about 6.25% of the world\'s total oil production. This field is one of only four able to produce over a million barrels per day. (Cantarell in Mexico produces nearly two million barrels per day, Burgan in Kuwait produces 1.7 million barrels per day and Da Qing in China produces one million barrels per day.)

Ghawar is, therefore, extremely important to the world\'s economy and well being. And unfortunately for the world, few know the actual state of Ghawar.

We do know that Ghawar\'s production rate is in decline.

In April 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year, implying that Ghawar may have peaked.

You read that right . . . it\'s likely that Ghawar has peaked!

And if Ghawar has peaked, Saudi Arabia has peaked. And if Saudi Arabia has peaked, the world has peaked!

In fact, three of the four fields that I mentioned a moment ago are in confirmed decline!

This means several hundred thousand barrels of oil per day will have to be added every year just to make up for the diminished output. And you and I both know that\'s not likely to happen.

Saudi Aramco has estimated that total production capacity from all its fields in 2011 will be 10.15 million barrels a day. That\'s about the same as its current capacity.

But to meet expected world demand, says the United States Department of Energy\'s research arm, Saudi Arabia will need to produce 13.6 million barrels a day by 2010 and 19.5 million barrels a day by 2020.

Saudi Arabia has been the world\'s leading oil exporter for over three decades. Today, the country produces about 8 million barrels a day-roughly one tenth of the world\'s needs. If Saudi production fell short, the consequences would be significant. And Ghawar\'s decline is the first sign of this happening.

While the world has other large producers like Russia and Iraq, these countries do not have the massive reserves or excess oil capacity for export like those found in Saudi Arabia. Therefore they will not be able to make up for short supply. And the new oil fields found elsewhere around the globe are tiny when compared to Ghawar and therefore will not be able to deliver enough oil to make up the difference. As a result, supplies will tighten and oil prices will increase further. The global economy will soon begin to feel the squeeze. Previous spikes in oil prices have helped cause recessions. But this time I\'m afraid that the effects are going to be much worse.

And we\'ll soon find that with every barrel they pump in the Middle East, the cost of extracting additional barrels accelerates.

According to Matthew Simmons, considered to be the most knowledgeable man on the planet when it comes to oil, within the next three to five years, Saudi oil production is going to collapse by as much as 30-40%.

Clearly, this would push oil well over $100.

Since Kuwait\'s "late night shredding sessions" were discovered, analysts have found that the disease of inflated oil reserves has spread even to the Big Oil companies.

The King Kong of oil, ExxonMobil, while claiming that the world has plenty of oil, was caught red-handed on February 7, 2006. According to SEC filings, the oil giant reported that it was replacing 112% of the oil produced and sold.

In reality, Exxon replaced only 83% of the oil it sold last year. That\'s a 17% drop in production! It\'s this type of accounting shenanigans that we\'re seeing former CEOs going to jail for right now.

Keeping in mind that a drop in our oil supply of as little as 5% in 1973 was able to increase the price of oil by as much as 400%, imagine what will happen if the Simmons hypothesis is even remotely accurate. According to him, we could easily see oil shoot up above the $200 dollar range.

This is the kind of scenario we\'re facing.

But running out of our "easy oil," aside from skyrocketing prices, has bigger implications, especially for Americans, than you may realize at first.

The Destruction of the Dollar

At the end of WWI, our currency shifted from the "gold standard" over to what is now called the petro-dollar.

For decades, OPEC\'s currency for all exported oil was the good old greenback. And today, 50% of the strength of the United States currency is dependent on cheap, plentiful oil.

What would happen if OPEC successfully shifted its standard currency from the U.S. dollar to the euro, as Iraq and Iran have tried to do? The answer is simple and drastic. The value of the dollar would plummet by roughly 50% and we would find ourselves in an economic state far worse than the Great Depression. The terrifying part is, without our military presence in the Middle East, it would happen.

But with all of the light shining on the actual amount of Middle East oil and no more giant oil fields being discovered, we are finding a new, safe place for America\'s energy-and independence from terrorist suppliers.
Our Only Alternative Is Several Alternatives

President Bush\'s 2006 State of the Union Address was dead on . . .

"We are addicted to oil."

The value and power of oil has never been greater. While it is harmful to our environment, there is simply no more cost-efficient source of energy. But with that source depleting, we have to stop finger-pointing and look at the options we have from here. And whatever your opinion of the current president, his solution-to have many solutions-is the only way that we can continue our way of life.

The reason we\'ll need many different energy sources is that switching to one alternative doesn\'t stand a chance of meeting demand. But when solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear, hydroelectric, ethanol and oil come together, we have a fighting chance of sustaining our way of life. And that is something that wars are fought for.

You might be thinking, "That\'s great. But where do we get the oil component, if we are running out?"

Our Friendly Northern Neighbors

If by now you aren\'t convinced of the importance that oil has in our economy and the world, I\'m afraid there\'s no hope for you.

While we must strive to free ourselves from dependence on the Middle East, it would be downright foolish to think that a society can continue entirely without oil. To Sweden, which has declared its intention of being completely petroleum-free by 2030, we wish the very best of luck with that pipedream.

Those countries that think they have a fighting chance of continuing without using any oil at all will find themselves living like the Amish, in the 17th century, with no computers, no cars and no technology at all.

Those countries with some reasoning skills are fighting right now to secure what\'s left of the essential resource.

And the U.S. has found a new best friend.

While current production numbers from the Canadian oil sands don\'t raise too much enthusiasm for some-the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers has estimated production at 3.9 million barrels a day by 2015-they can hardly be dismissed. And we have our eye on them like a bear on honey.

The actual amount of oil in the ground is the most promising thing since the 1948 discovery of Ghawar. Oh yeah, and it\'s bigger . . . much bigger. "The total recoverable estimates could be two trillion (barrels) or even higher," says Clive Mather, Shell\'s Canada chief.

Ka-ching!

I\'m not going to lie to you. Since the price of oil passed the $50 mark, extracting the oil from these sands, while more labor intensive, is proving to be extremely lucrative-and our best option.

Most of the companies involved are, well . . . to call them undervalued would be an understatement. And investors are catching on.

To those people who want to raise the argument against the oil sands that we\'re leaving over half of the oil from our "easy oil" fields still in the ground, allow me to explain . . .

Once you get to the point where you burn more oil to run the pumps than a well is producing, you cut your losses and move on. That is why we\'re leaving so much oil in the ground. Hence the name "peak" or "easy" oil. And we are finding that it is happening all over the world. If it hasn\'t happened yet . . . it will, very soon.

This is the reason behind the exploding popularity of the Alberta oil sands. Though costly, we are able to get more out of them than we put in.

And this is where we are going to be getting our oil for decades to come. Already, the U.S. imports 40% of its oil from Canada. And while we will be cutting our oil consumption in the near future, the demand for oil is still going to be strong as long as we continue to grow as a nation and preserve the American way of life.

The President\'s 2006 State of the Union Address was dead-on. But he neglected to mention something when he admitted that the world, and the U.S. in particular, is addicted to oil. What he forgot to mention was that the world economy and the strength of the dollar are directly related to oil supplies and cost.

Obviously, all of these events present us with incredible investment opportunities.

To learn more about these investment opportunities, click here.

Good luck and have fun investing,



Mike Schaefer

Energy and Capital

[GNawracala]

diesem Absatz kann ich allerdings nicht zustimmen:

To those people who want to raise the argument against the oil sands that we\\'re leaving over half of the oil from our "easy oil" fields still in the ground, allow me to explain . . .

Once you get to the point where you burn more oil to run the pumps than a well is producing, you cut your losses and move on. That is why we\\'re leaving so much oil in the ground. Hence the name "peak" or "easy" oil. And we are finding that it is happening all over the world. If it hasn\\'t happened yet . . . it will, very soon.

Es gibt einige Firmen, die noch vorhandenes Öl rausholen - und zwar billiger als es aus Ölsand wohl möglich ist. So genannte tertiäre Förderung bzw. Ehanced Oil Recovery:

Denbury Resources (DNR)
Cano Petroleum (CFW)
Rancher Energy (RNCH)

um nur ein paar zu nennen