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Endeavour Financial's Banner Year
By James West
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Endeavour Financial Corp (TSX:EDV) shares have suffered along with the rest of the merchant banking sector that is focused on resources, but that hasn’t stopped them from paying the monthly dividend, which at the end of December 2008 was $0.03 a share – that’s 36 cents a year or 18% yield. The company remains committed to its monthly dividend policy for now.
Endeavour is heading into an aggressive growth year. While other merchant banks sit on their hands adopting a wait-and-see attitude, Endeavour is preparing to capitalize on an environment where opportunities are priced attractively, and the challenge of financing them in the current environment is no cause for hesitation.
The company is in the process of raising CA$100 million by way of short form prospectus, the proceeds of which it will use to “make investments in the natural resource sector”.
The offering is aimed at financial institutions and will not be made available on a retail basis. Speculation in other business press calls into question the advisability of such a move in the current environment, but its the use of proceeds that matters.
Endeavour typically acts as the finance partner for its portfolio of core investments, which are usually companies in which it already owns a substantial interest.
Cash is king in this market and $100 million could buy a huge amount of production or proven ounces in the ground. Many acquisition targets – especially in the junior sector – are trading at pennies on the dollar, need cash – and other than the major mining companies, nobody else has money – except Endeavour.
Endeavour could also use that money to fund expansions of current clients, like Rusoro and their Choco 10 mine in Venezuela, which is going from 100K to 300K oz a year production over the next few years.
(Not that Rusoro is a penniless orphan. The company just announced record quarterly gold production, record low cash costs, and a record production month from its existing operations in Venezuela, producing 38,868 ounces of gold at a cash cost of US$358 per ounce.
Rusoro is expected to produce between 120,000 and 150,000 ounces in 2009. The opportunity before Rusoro, and by extension, Endeavour, is the establishment in 2009 of a Venezuelan gold mining major with a minimum of 45 million ounces of gold in reserve. )
Nevsun would be another example – Endeavour is helping them raise funds to put their high grade Bisha deposit into production. Capex is falling hard and fast right now, so there is great possibility to create value for Endeavour shareholders in a situation like this. Cash buys you more everyday right now.
Given gold’s performance during the last decade relative to other asset classes, raising funds for such an “endeavour” should not be problematic.
The other key point to bear in mind is that Endeavour Financial’s exclusive advisor is Fiore Financial, the private investment arm of legendary financier Frank Giustra, who has been the main force behind some of this decade’s biggest growth stories in the resource sector – Wheaton River Minerals, Northern Orion Resources and Urasia Energy.
In such illustrious company, and with such opportunity, who wouldn’t want to participate in Endeavour Financial’s financial endeavours? Nobody else will have capital. Great projects can now be bought cheap. As usual, Mr. Giustra’s timing is impeccable. This is the man who walked away from the mining industry 10 years ago, at the top, and came back to it in 2001, at the bottom. I’ll put my money with him.
By James West
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Endeavour Financial Corp (TSX:EDV) shares have suffered along with the rest of the merchant banking sector that is focused on resources, but that hasn’t stopped them from paying the monthly dividend, which at the end of December 2008 was $0.03 a share – that’s 36 cents a year or 18% yield. The company remains committed to its monthly dividend policy for now.
Endeavour is heading into an aggressive growth year. While other merchant banks sit on their hands adopting a wait-and-see attitude, Endeavour is preparing to capitalize on an environment where opportunities are priced attractively, and the challenge of financing them in the current environment is no cause for hesitation.
The company is in the process of raising CA$100 million by way of short form prospectus, the proceeds of which it will use to “make investments in the natural resource sector”.
The offering is aimed at financial institutions and will not be made available on a retail basis. Speculation in other business press calls into question the advisability of such a move in the current environment, but its the use of proceeds that matters.
Endeavour typically acts as the finance partner for its portfolio of core investments, which are usually companies in which it already owns a substantial interest.
Cash is king in this market and $100 million could buy a huge amount of production or proven ounces in the ground. Many acquisition targets – especially in the junior sector – are trading at pennies on the dollar, need cash – and other than the major mining companies, nobody else has money – except Endeavour.
Endeavour could also use that money to fund expansions of current clients, like Rusoro and their Choco 10 mine in Venezuela, which is going from 100K to 300K oz a year production over the next few years.
(Not that Rusoro is a penniless orphan. The company just announced record quarterly gold production, record low cash costs, and a record production month from its existing operations in Venezuela, producing 38,868 ounces of gold at a cash cost of US$358 per ounce.
Rusoro is expected to produce between 120,000 and 150,000 ounces in 2009. The opportunity before Rusoro, and by extension, Endeavour, is the establishment in 2009 of a Venezuelan gold mining major with a minimum of 45 million ounces of gold in reserve. )
Nevsun would be another example – Endeavour is helping them raise funds to put their high grade Bisha deposit into production. Capex is falling hard and fast right now, so there is great possibility to create value for Endeavour shareholders in a situation like this. Cash buys you more everyday right now.
Given gold’s performance during the last decade relative to other asset classes, raising funds for such an “endeavour” should not be problematic.
The other key point to bear in mind is that Endeavour Financial’s exclusive advisor is Fiore Financial, the private investment arm of legendary financier Frank Giustra, who has been the main force behind some of this decade’s biggest growth stories in the resource sector – Wheaton River Minerals, Northern Orion Resources and Urasia Energy.
In such illustrious company, and with such opportunity, who wouldn’t want to participate in Endeavour Financial’s financial endeavours? Nobody else will have capital. Great projects can now be bought cheap. As usual, Mr. Giustra’s timing is impeccable. This is the man who walked away from the mining industry 10 years ago, at the top, and came back to it in 2001, at the bottom. I’ll put my money with him.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.399.998 von stupidgame am 18.01.09 22:56:09Nun gut, der Obama kann auch nicht zaubern.
Ich traue aber dem Bernanke zu, daß er eine Stabilisierung der US-Wirtschaft hinbekommt, was eine Gratwanderung zwischen Deflation und Inflation werden wird.
Die Konjunkturlokomotive der Zukunft ist aber Asien bzw. China (nicht Japan).
Und der Rohstoff, der auch bei einer Wirtschaftskrise in großen Mengen benötigt wird, ist Öl.
Deswegen lohnt es sich, sich mit einzelnen Ölaktien zu befassen.
Ich traue aber dem Bernanke zu, daß er eine Stabilisierung der US-Wirtschaft hinbekommt, was eine Gratwanderung zwischen Deflation und Inflation werden wird.
Die Konjunkturlokomotive der Zukunft ist aber Asien bzw. China (nicht Japan).
Und der Rohstoff, der auch bei einer Wirtschaftskrise in großen Mengen benötigt wird, ist Öl.
Deswegen lohnt es sich, sich mit einzelnen Ölaktien zu befassen.
Coal of Africa to start Mooiplaats underground production at end Q1
By: Chanel Pringle - Published on 19th January 2009
JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Production from the underground mining portals at the Mooiplaats thermal coal project, in the Ermelo coalfield, would start by the end of this year's first quarter, coal development company Coal of Africa Limited (CoAL) said on Monday.
Reporting on the company's progress in the quarter ended December 31, 2008, MD Simon Farrell told shareholders that the development of all the company's coal projects remained on schedule.
"I am pleased to announce that coal was extracted from the Mooiplaats thermal coal project during the quarter, with further significant development of the project due to take place in the next quarter," he stated.
The ASX-, Aim- and JSE-listed company reported that the development of the boxcut and the surface infrastructure at the project was progressing on schedule, with the washing plant to be commissioned in March.
The first coal sales from the project would start in the second quarter of the year. Discussions regarding the long-term offtake agreements for the export coal from the project were continuing.
CoAL also expected to conclude an agreement with power utility Eskom for the sale of lower quality thermal coal by the second quarter.
Meanwhile, Farrell emphasised that the company remained "well placed" to bring the Mooiplaats project, the Vele coking coal project and the Makhado coking coal project into production within the next two years, despite the challenges posed by the current economic turmoil.
He noted that the company's cash position and absence of debt would ensure it was able to do this. Mining at the Vele project, in Limpopo province, was expected to start by the second half of the year, subject to the granting of new-order mining rights by the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME).
An ongoing drilling programme was expected to better define the site of the proposed bulk sample boxcut at the project, with 12 drilling holes to be completed this year. Further, CoAL stated that the preliminary mine production schedule for the project had been revised during the quarter to include both underground and opencast sections.
The revised schedule potentially could deliver improved coking coal yields at lower cost and extend the life-of-mine beyond 2040, reported the company. Meanwhile, the results of a large-diameter drilling (LDD) programme at the Makhado project, which would be commissioned about 12 months after the Vele project, would be available in the second quarter of the year.
By December, 12 holes out of the 20-hole LDD programme had been drilled. Further, CoAL said that the new-order mining rights application for the project, situated in Limpopo province, was nearing completion, with progress also being made on the various environmental studies.
The company also had submitted a mining rights application to the DME for its Holfontein project, situated in the Witbank coalfield, east of Johannesburg. This follows the termination of a sale agreement between CoAL and Australian minerals exploration and development company, Lachlan Star, which wanted to acquire 100% of the project, but could not get shareholder approval.
CoAL expected to produce about 400 000 t/y of soft coking coal from the 5 seam at the project, and about 800 000 t/y of thermal coal from the 4 seam.
By: Chanel Pringle - Published on 19th January 2009
JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Production from the underground mining portals at the Mooiplaats thermal coal project, in the Ermelo coalfield, would start by the end of this year's first quarter, coal development company Coal of Africa Limited (CoAL) said on Monday.
Reporting on the company's progress in the quarter ended December 31, 2008, MD Simon Farrell told shareholders that the development of all the company's coal projects remained on schedule.
"I am pleased to announce that coal was extracted from the Mooiplaats thermal coal project during the quarter, with further significant development of the project due to take place in the next quarter," he stated.
The ASX-, Aim- and JSE-listed company reported that the development of the boxcut and the surface infrastructure at the project was progressing on schedule, with the washing plant to be commissioned in March.
The first coal sales from the project would start in the second quarter of the year. Discussions regarding the long-term offtake agreements for the export coal from the project were continuing.
CoAL also expected to conclude an agreement with power utility Eskom for the sale of lower quality thermal coal by the second quarter.
Meanwhile, Farrell emphasised that the company remained "well placed" to bring the Mooiplaats project, the Vele coking coal project and the Makhado coking coal project into production within the next two years, despite the challenges posed by the current economic turmoil.
He noted that the company's cash position and absence of debt would ensure it was able to do this. Mining at the Vele project, in Limpopo province, was expected to start by the second half of the year, subject to the granting of new-order mining rights by the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME).
An ongoing drilling programme was expected to better define the site of the proposed bulk sample boxcut at the project, with 12 drilling holes to be completed this year. Further, CoAL stated that the preliminary mine production schedule for the project had been revised during the quarter to include both underground and opencast sections.
The revised schedule potentially could deliver improved coking coal yields at lower cost and extend the life-of-mine beyond 2040, reported the company. Meanwhile, the results of a large-diameter drilling (LDD) programme at the Makhado project, which would be commissioned about 12 months after the Vele project, would be available in the second quarter of the year.
By December, 12 holes out of the 20-hole LDD programme had been drilled. Further, CoAL said that the new-order mining rights application for the project, situated in Limpopo province, was nearing completion, with progress also being made on the various environmental studies.
The company also had submitted a mining rights application to the DME for its Holfontein project, situated in the Witbank coalfield, east of Johannesburg. This follows the termination of a sale agreement between CoAL and Australian minerals exploration and development company, Lachlan Star, which wanted to acquire 100% of the project, but could not get shareholder approval.
CoAL expected to produce about 400 000 t/y of soft coking coal from the 5 seam at the project, and about 800 000 t/y of thermal coal from the 4 seam.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.399.998 von stupidgame am 18.01.09 22:56:09...deswegen werd ich mich zukünftig mehr für Indexzerties interessieren.
Dragon Oil
CEO outlook comments
Comments from an interview on Friday with Dragon CEO, Abdul-Jaleel Al Khalifa, provided an insight into the forthcoming trading statement, which is due tomorrow. Specifically:
1. average 2008 production exceeded 40.0 kbopd (forecast of 40.3 kbopd);
2. target production growth in 2009 is pegged at 15% - 20%;
3. total investment in 2009 is guided at $550m, of which c$300m is allocated to infrastructure; and
4. the search to diversify the asset base with a focus on Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa continues.
The fact that average production in 2008 exceeded 40.0 kbopd and guidance for 2009 suggests an average rate of 46.0 to 48.0 kbopd at least (current forecast of 44.0 kbopd) is clearly positive and demonstrates the operational leverage of an additional rig on site. Total investment of $550m, which at a minimum appears to include capex (current forecast of $350m) and production costs (current forecast of $92m) may suggest upside to our 2009 capex estimate though we would add that Dragon has tended to overestimate required field investment in the past. With $740m in cash (excluding $80m set aside for abandonment liabilities), equivalent to 68% of current valuation, Dragon is in an enviable position and clearly has options on the acquisition front. It has yet to announce any deals, however, nor apparently commit to a fourth rig, an approach, which may well pay dividends as asset prices and rig rates fall. Aside from the above, the statement suggests that Dragon will have doubled its oil processing capacity to 100 kbopd by early 2010 and that it expects to conclude negotiations on a gas sales agreement with the Turkmen government by year end and commence commercial gas production in 2012/2013, which is broadly in line with our expectations.
Ahead of the release of the trading statement tomorrow, revising our average 2009 production rate to 47.0 kbopd and maintaining our $55/bbl oil price assumption and our $350m capex estimate would raise FY09 diluted EPS from 49.1c to 51.7c and net cash from $855m to $869m. Lowering the oil price assumption to $45/bbl (more inline with current spot prices) would result in earnings of c.38c and net debt of $824m. At an average 2009 rate of 47.0 kbopd, an oil price assumption of $45/bbl and increasing capex from $350m to $450m would result in a 2009 net cash balance of $722m. While somewhat academic given the prospect for greater detail tomorrow, the exercise nevertheless demonstrates the strength of the position that Dragon enjoys compared to that of many of its peers that are being forced to reduce their investment programmes and conserve cash in the face of plummeting oil prices.
CEO outlook comments
Comments from an interview on Friday with Dragon CEO, Abdul-Jaleel Al Khalifa, provided an insight into the forthcoming trading statement, which is due tomorrow. Specifically:
1. average 2008 production exceeded 40.0 kbopd (forecast of 40.3 kbopd);
2. target production growth in 2009 is pegged at 15% - 20%;
3. total investment in 2009 is guided at $550m, of which c$300m is allocated to infrastructure; and
4. the search to diversify the asset base with a focus on Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa continues.
The fact that average production in 2008 exceeded 40.0 kbopd and guidance for 2009 suggests an average rate of 46.0 to 48.0 kbopd at least (current forecast of 44.0 kbopd) is clearly positive and demonstrates the operational leverage of an additional rig on site. Total investment of $550m, which at a minimum appears to include capex (current forecast of $350m) and production costs (current forecast of $92m) may suggest upside to our 2009 capex estimate though we would add that Dragon has tended to overestimate required field investment in the past. With $740m in cash (excluding $80m set aside for abandonment liabilities), equivalent to 68% of current valuation, Dragon is in an enviable position and clearly has options on the acquisition front. It has yet to announce any deals, however, nor apparently commit to a fourth rig, an approach, which may well pay dividends as asset prices and rig rates fall. Aside from the above, the statement suggests that Dragon will have doubled its oil processing capacity to 100 kbopd by early 2010 and that it expects to conclude negotiations on a gas sales agreement with the Turkmen government by year end and commence commercial gas production in 2012/2013, which is broadly in line with our expectations.
Ahead of the release of the trading statement tomorrow, revising our average 2009 production rate to 47.0 kbopd and maintaining our $55/bbl oil price assumption and our $350m capex estimate would raise FY09 diluted EPS from 49.1c to 51.7c and net cash from $855m to $869m. Lowering the oil price assumption to $45/bbl (more inline with current spot prices) would result in earnings of c.38c and net debt of $824m. At an average 2009 rate of 47.0 kbopd, an oil price assumption of $45/bbl and increasing capex from $350m to $450m would result in a 2009 net cash balance of $722m. While somewhat academic given the prospect for greater detail tomorrow, the exercise nevertheless demonstrates the strength of the position that Dragon enjoys compared to that of many of its peers that are being forced to reduce their investment programmes and conserve cash in the face of plummeting oil prices.
Trading Spotlight
Antrim Energy: North Sea oil stakes up for sale
By Mark Leftly - Sunday, 18 January 2009
Bids for stakes worth up to $100m (£68m) in North Sea oil fields were due last Friday.
Antrim Energy, a Canadian and London-listed oil producer, is selling half its stakes in the Fyne and Causeway fields, both of which it operates. It owns about 65.5 per cent of Causeway and three-quarters of Fyne. Boutique investment bank Stellar Energy is running the sale. "The information memorandum nicknames the sale 'Fyne and dandy'," said an energy sector source.
Antrim is seeking regulatory approval to develop the Causeway field. Initially, it will produce about 15,000 barrels of oil a day. Antrim will submit a development plan for the Fyne field this summer.
By Mark Leftly - Sunday, 18 January 2009
Bids for stakes worth up to $100m (£68m) in North Sea oil fields were due last Friday.
Antrim Energy, a Canadian and London-listed oil producer, is selling half its stakes in the Fyne and Causeway fields, both of which it operates. It owns about 65.5 per cent of Causeway and three-quarters of Fyne. Boutique investment bank Stellar Energy is running the sale. "The information memorandum nicknames the sale 'Fyne and dandy'," said an energy sector source.
Antrim is seeking regulatory approval to develop the Causeway field. Initially, it will produce about 15,000 barrels of oil a day. Antrim will submit a development plan for the Fyne field this summer.
Future-Kontrakte CoT per 17.01.09
Guten Morgen @ all,
bei Gold sind die Commercials (Institutionelle Anleger) noch immer stark Netto-Short mit ca. 146.000 Kontrakten (Veränderung zur Vorwoche ca. +9.400). Damit setzen die Profis weiter auf fallende Goldpreise.
Beim Erdöl hat sich aus Sicht der Institutionellen die Lage etwas verbessert. So wurde der Netto-Short Anteil von ca. 66.500 auf ca. 52.500 Kontrakte verringert.
Bei Kupfer wurde der Netto-Long Anteil um ca. 5.600 auf ca. 26.000 vergrößert. Die Mehrheit der Institutionellen setzt damit auf steigende Kupferpreise.
Bei PGM gab es keine großen Veränderungen. Bei Silber kam es zu einer leichten Reduzierung der Shortpositionen.
Alles im Allem noch kein wirklich bullishes Bild, dennoch eine Verbesserung aus dieser Perspektive.
Gruß
Tommy
Guten Morgen @ all,
bei Gold sind die Commercials (Institutionelle Anleger) noch immer stark Netto-Short mit ca. 146.000 Kontrakten (Veränderung zur Vorwoche ca. +9.400). Damit setzen die Profis weiter auf fallende Goldpreise.
Beim Erdöl hat sich aus Sicht der Institutionellen die Lage etwas verbessert. So wurde der Netto-Short Anteil von ca. 66.500 auf ca. 52.500 Kontrakte verringert.
Bei Kupfer wurde der Netto-Long Anteil um ca. 5.600 auf ca. 26.000 vergrößert. Die Mehrheit der Institutionellen setzt damit auf steigende Kupferpreise.
Bei PGM gab es keine großen Veränderungen. Bei Silber kam es zu einer leichten Reduzierung der Shortpositionen.
Alles im Allem noch kein wirklich bullishes Bild, dennoch eine Verbesserung aus dieser Perspektive.
Gruß
Tommy
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.398.406 von Urlaub2 am 18.01.09 15:37:33Obwohl ich in die Falle muss, da ganz früh raus, morgen. Kurze Antwort.
Ich setze weder auf Obama, noch auf Bernanke. Ist nicht meine Art, Geld zu investieren, und dann zu hoffen, dass jemand wichtiges schon rechtzeitig an den richtigen Schrauben dreht, um mir meinen Hintern zu retten. Ich halte die ganze Obama-Manie für völlig daneben. Das hat schon was von Guru und Sekte. Der Mann wird mit Erwartungen total überfrachtet, die er überhaupt nicht erfüllen kann. Hier sollte jeder mal wieder dran erinnert werden, dass man in erster Linie mal für sich selbst verantwortlich ist.
Obama, oder irgendwer anders - total egal, wer - kann lediglich Kosmetik an der Oberfläche machen. Makro-Ökonomisch wird das ablaufen, was ablaufen muss. Das wird man nicht verhindern können. Man kann das allenfalls unnötig in die Länge ziehen.
@XIO
Richtig, mit den Semmeln. Strategie kann für mich aber nur sein, die temporär starken Picks zu finden, dort eine Weile einen möglichen Uptrend mitzumachen und vor der nächsten Tsunami-Welle wieder draussen zu sein. Nach meiner Meinung ist nicht die Zeit für buy and hold. Man sollte mal vielleicht generell die Aussage nochmal auf den Prüfstand legen, das Aktien langfristig gute Invests sind. Der Japaner, der vor 20 Jahren den Nikkei gekauft hat, sitzt auf Verlusten von 77% - und das Rentenalter rückt immer näher...
@recession
Dir kann ich praktisch ähnlich antworten, wie XIO. Auf der Longseite bringen meiner Meinung nach die nächste Zeit nur Bearmarket-Rallies etwas oder Buttum-Bounces (das Hüpfen eines Assets auf seinem Preis-Boden).
Trendwenden, die in etlichen Börsenboards von Ungeduldigen schon ausgerufen werden, sehe ich einfach nicht. Die ganzen Ungleichgewichte müssen irgendwie abgebaut werden. Das geht einfach nicht zuammen mit einer Börse, die evtl. in 2-3 Jahren - nach Aussagen etlicher - schon wieder auf Rekordkurs sein soll. Ich weiss beim besten Willen nicht, wie das gehen soll. Es wäre auch gar nicht gut, die kaputten Strukturen nun weiter vor sich her zu schieben. Das macht das nächste Loch nur noch größer.
MfG.
s.
Ich setze weder auf Obama, noch auf Bernanke. Ist nicht meine Art, Geld zu investieren, und dann zu hoffen, dass jemand wichtiges schon rechtzeitig an den richtigen Schrauben dreht, um mir meinen Hintern zu retten. Ich halte die ganze Obama-Manie für völlig daneben. Das hat schon was von Guru und Sekte. Der Mann wird mit Erwartungen total überfrachtet, die er überhaupt nicht erfüllen kann. Hier sollte jeder mal wieder dran erinnert werden, dass man in erster Linie mal für sich selbst verantwortlich ist.
Obama, oder irgendwer anders - total egal, wer - kann lediglich Kosmetik an der Oberfläche machen. Makro-Ökonomisch wird das ablaufen, was ablaufen muss. Das wird man nicht verhindern können. Man kann das allenfalls unnötig in die Länge ziehen.
@XIO
Richtig, mit den Semmeln. Strategie kann für mich aber nur sein, die temporär starken Picks zu finden, dort eine Weile einen möglichen Uptrend mitzumachen und vor der nächsten Tsunami-Welle wieder draussen zu sein. Nach meiner Meinung ist nicht die Zeit für buy and hold. Man sollte mal vielleicht generell die Aussage nochmal auf den Prüfstand legen, das Aktien langfristig gute Invests sind. Der Japaner, der vor 20 Jahren den Nikkei gekauft hat, sitzt auf Verlusten von 77% - und das Rentenalter rückt immer näher...
@recession
Dir kann ich praktisch ähnlich antworten, wie XIO. Auf der Longseite bringen meiner Meinung nach die nächste Zeit nur Bearmarket-Rallies etwas oder Buttum-Bounces (das Hüpfen eines Assets auf seinem Preis-Boden).
Trendwenden, die in etlichen Börsenboards von Ungeduldigen schon ausgerufen werden, sehe ich einfach nicht. Die ganzen Ungleichgewichte müssen irgendwie abgebaut werden. Das geht einfach nicht zuammen mit einer Börse, die evtl. in 2-3 Jahren - nach Aussagen etlicher - schon wieder auf Rekordkurs sein soll. Ich weiss beim besten Willen nicht, wie das gehen soll. Es wäre auch gar nicht gut, die kaputten Strukturen nun weiter vor sich her zu schieben. Das macht das nächste Loch nur noch größer.
MfG.
s.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.398.406 von Urlaub2 am 18.01.09 15:37:33>>> über Rohstoffwerte im Prinzip überhaupt nicht diskutieren
Ist das nicht ein bischen zu spaet jetzt? Das sollte man doch gesunder Menschenverstand anfang Sommer schon begreifen konnen, dass in der Rezession und Kreditklemme Nachfrage sinken wird und viele Rohstoff Preisse frueher oder spaeter in Keller landen. Niemand hier in diesem Thread hat darauf deutlich hingewiesen (weil alle mit depot aufbau so beschaeftigt waren), obwohl das ganz logische Schlussfolgerungen sind. Also ist das schon nicht zu spaet darueber zu diskutieren?
Wichtig ist, dass bei einigen Rohstoffen Produktions Kosten hoher als Verkaufspreiss liegt und die Produktion wird aufgelagert oder es wird Produktions kurzungen vorgenommen. Was pasiert wenn die Lager voll sind? Die Minen werden schliessen, was schon jetzt pasiert. Und wie gehts weiter? Nicht ewig so. Also ganz logisch die ersten Bodenbildungen (gerade zurzeit) sehen wir fuer einige Rohstoff Werte. Dazu kann ich bestimmt einige Baise Metalle erwaehnen. Oel bleibt meiner Meinung nach noch eine Weile 30-40 USD und es konnte wirklich auch unter 30 USD gehen, aber kurzfristig. Fuer Kohle konnte es noch 25% runtergehen. Also Boden bedeutet kein aufschwung, aber die Preisse werden stagnieren aber nicht deutlich Fallen bis die Kurzungen in Realwirtschaft eine Wirkung Zeigen, was gut auf Aktien Markt wird. Logisch waere, wenn das irgendwann in haelfte oder am ende 2009 pasiert. Also man kann nicht viel schief machen wenn man auf Ausgebombte und vielversprechende Werte setzt.
Sonst Zertifikate sind sinvoll. Seitwaerts Trend und Volatilitaet ideal fuer shorts und longs. Wenn - Oben short gehen. Long zu gehen wage ich weniger. Beispiel Dow bewegung. 9000 zu brechen wenig wahrscheinlich - man geht short.
Ist das nicht ein bischen zu spaet jetzt? Das sollte man doch gesunder Menschenverstand anfang Sommer schon begreifen konnen, dass in der Rezession und Kreditklemme Nachfrage sinken wird und viele Rohstoff Preisse frueher oder spaeter in Keller landen. Niemand hier in diesem Thread hat darauf deutlich hingewiesen (weil alle mit depot aufbau so beschaeftigt waren), obwohl das ganz logische Schlussfolgerungen sind. Also ist das schon nicht zu spaet darueber zu diskutieren?
Wichtig ist, dass bei einigen Rohstoffen Produktions Kosten hoher als Verkaufspreiss liegt und die Produktion wird aufgelagert oder es wird Produktions kurzungen vorgenommen. Was pasiert wenn die Lager voll sind? Die Minen werden schliessen, was schon jetzt pasiert. Und wie gehts weiter? Nicht ewig so. Also ganz logisch die ersten Bodenbildungen (gerade zurzeit) sehen wir fuer einige Rohstoff Werte. Dazu kann ich bestimmt einige Baise Metalle erwaehnen. Oel bleibt meiner Meinung nach noch eine Weile 30-40 USD und es konnte wirklich auch unter 30 USD gehen, aber kurzfristig. Fuer Kohle konnte es noch 25% runtergehen. Also Boden bedeutet kein aufschwung, aber die Preisse werden stagnieren aber nicht deutlich Fallen bis die Kurzungen in Realwirtschaft eine Wirkung Zeigen, was gut auf Aktien Markt wird. Logisch waere, wenn das irgendwann in haelfte oder am ende 2009 pasiert. Also man kann nicht viel schief machen wenn man auf Ausgebombte und vielversprechende Werte setzt.
Sonst Zertifikate sind sinvoll. Seitwaerts Trend und Volatilitaet ideal fuer shorts und longs. Wenn - Oben short gehen. Long zu gehen wage ich weniger. Beispiel Dow bewegung. 9000 zu brechen wenig wahrscheinlich - man geht short.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.398.406 von Urlaub2 am 18.01.09 15:37:33Selbst in der Depression kostet ein Rohstoff etwas.
Die Semmeln beim Bäcker werden auch nicht verschenkt.
Die Semmeln beim Bäcker werden auch nicht verschenkt.
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