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    Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung (Seite 2679)

    eröffnet am 13.03.08 13:14:32 von
    neuester Beitrag 13.05.24 13:54:35 von
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      schrieb am 26.11.08 18:34:07
      Beitrag Nr. 2.761 ()
      Durch die "Blume" teilen die Chinesen den Amerikanern inoffiziell mit, was die USA zu tun hat, damit China Hilfe leistet ...

      Die Forderungen ähneln denen, die der durch die USA gesteuerte IWF z. B. bankrotten Dritte-Welt-Ländern stellt ...



      Before Saving the US

      by Xiang Songzuo - November 11,2008

      The nature of the current global financial crisis is the biggest debt crisis in America’s history. The issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the US has been borrowing for quite a long time without any limit.

      America’s trade, international payment and fiscal deficits have existed for over 40 years (a fiscal dividend once occurred during Clinton’s administration but deficit soon returned). Statistics show that America’s internal and external debt exceeds $60 trillion, over 400% of the country’s annual GDP of a bit over $14 trillion. Of that total, family debt (including mortgages), financial and non-financial firms’ debt, and municipal and national debt come to about $15 trillion, $17 trillion, $22 trillion, $3.5 trillion, and $11 trillion, respectively, though it is hard to tell how these debts have been split up among foreign governments, financial firms, companies, and individuals.

      To relieve the crisis, the US must repay its debts, and to do that it needs to live a more frugal life instead of asking others to continue lending it the money to maintain its over-consumption.
      The first thing the government needs to do is reduce spending and the deficit.

      Correspondingly, the US needs to cut military disbursement, stop its global expansion and the robbing of oil resources from other countries. Companies should also become thrifty and avoid highly leveraged operation. Families and individuals should stop anticipating their income to buy houses and travel globally. Instead, they should warmly welcome foreigners to travel to and spend money in the US.

      China Should Raise Conditions
      But if the US must ask China to buy some portion of its national debt, what kind of conditions and principles should China we raise?
      The principle should be the same as the basic principle upheld by the US and IMF when “saving” other countries in crisis: cut fiscal disbursement and both the government and the people should save money.

      Besides that, there are six points: first, the US should cancel the limits on high-tech exports to China, and allow China to acquire advanced technology and high-tech companies from the US; secondly, the US needs to open its financial system to Chinese financial institutions, allowing all Chinese financial firms to open branches and develop business in the US; third, the US should not prevent Europe from canceling the ban against selling weapons to China; fourth, the US should stop selling military weapons to Taiwan; fifth, the US should loosen its limits on numbers of Chinese tourists and allow them to travel freely to the US; and sixth, the US should never restrain China’s exports to the US and force RMB appreciation in the name of domestic protectionism and employment pressure.

      If the US should refuse to agree to the six principals, that only means it doesn’t really need China to save its market and buy its national debt. Then China’s choice is quite simple: rationally adjust the structure of its foreign exchange reserve assets and avoid the risk of the US national debt according to market rules.
      What is worth special attention is that the prerequisite for China’s purchase of US national debt is that China has enough foreign currency to meet the exchange demand when hot money is flowing out in large scale.

      Otherwise China will have to sell US debt to relieve its lack of foreign exchange currency, which will lead to sharp depreciation of China’s dollar assets. What is even worse, China may immediately suffer a financial crisis led by the lack of foreign currency.

      So if the US wants China to help save its market, the US government and the IMF must admit China’s right to manage its foreign exchange independently. Once large scale hot money outflows occurs, China has the right to take effective measures to restrain the speed and amount of hot money outflow, and the US and IMF can’t blame China for it.

      This is the most important prerequisite, even more important than the six principles mentioned above. If the US can’t agree to it, China may trap itself when saving the US. When exchange crisis happens in China, who can promise the US and the IMF won’t hit China when it’s down?

      -------------------

      The author is a professor at Central China University of Science and Technology. The piece is translated from his article on China Business News
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 17:49:06
      Beitrag Nr. 2.760 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.075.675 von recession am 26.11.08 15:11:05Ich kann mir auch gut vorstellen, dass bald der eine oder andere Staat den USD nicht mehr akzeptieren wird, weil die Dollar-Schwemme den Wert der Währung immer mehr verwässert. Die USA sind völlig überschuldet und ich zweifle daran, dass sie jemals in der Lage sein werden, ihre Schulden zu bezahlen.

      Evtl. kommt es zuerst zu einen "rating down grade" der USA von derzeit AAA. Wenn das passieren sollte, würde der USD wohl als Leitwährung in der Welt abgelöst werden. Das würde wahrscheinlich eine Flucht aus dem Dollar mit Hyper-Inflation in den USA und Ländern, die an den USD gekoppelt sind auslösen mit anschließendem Kollaps des USD.

      Rohstoffe wie Gold, Silber und Öl sowie Rohstoff-Aktien könnten dann die Gewinner sein.

      Schon mancher Staat hat sich durch eine Währungsreform seiner Schulden entledigt. Dollar-Anleihen und USD-Bargeld sollten m. M. n. gemieden werden.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 17:33:49
      Beitrag Nr. 2.759 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.075.981 von simkus66 am 26.11.08 15:32:46Hallo simkus,

      das von Dir genannte Zertifikat hatte ich mir auch schon rausgesucht. Zurzeit beobachte ich aber nur, und kaufe noch nicht.

      Gruß
      Tommy :)
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 15:32:46
      Beitrag Nr. 2.758 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.075.914 von simkus66 am 26.11.08 15:27:59Hab die WKN vergessen, SG0MG5
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 15:27:59
      Beitrag Nr. 2.757 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.073.473 von tommy-hl am 26.11.08 12:29:56Hallo tomm-hl, hab mal zu Zinn open End zertifikaten gesucht.

      Kursdaten Zertifikat
      Frankfurt: Realtime (26.11., 15:09:55)
      Geld in EUR (2.000 Stk.): 2,76 (+0,08 / +2,99%)
      Brief in EUR (2.000 Stk.): 2,89 (+0,08 / +2,85%)
      Spread (absolut): 0,130
      Realtime-Quote: (26.11., 15:09:53)
      Geld in EUR (1.000 Stk.): 2,77 (+0,16 / +6,13%)
      Brief in EUR (1.000 Stk.): 2,90 (+0,16 / +5,84%)
      Spread (absolut): 0,130

      Abstand zum Knock-out ca. 21%

      Hebel ca. 3,485

      Wäre das etwa das Richtige ???

      Grüßle simkus66

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      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 15:11:05
      Beitrag Nr. 2.756 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.070.426 von tommy-hl am 26.11.08 09:01:10Diese neuen Bailouts jagt manchen ein Schrecken ein. Was soll nun mit USD pasieren? Also USD Kolaps ist wohl das wahrscheinlichste. Das sollte eigentlich Rohstoffen bischen helfen. Geht dieses Bailout Geld so wie so in einem leeren grosen und Sack mit einem Loch drinn. Also ich finde das verzoegert nur einen weiteren Kolaps nur eine Weile.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 14:25:16
      Beitrag Nr. 2.755 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.072.629 von tommy-hl am 26.11.08 11:31:27Altona kommt mir langsam vor wie ein Lotterielos, aber mit einem super Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis.

      Leider bin ich fett im Verlust.

      Ich denke auch, daß insgesamt so viel Interesse besteht, daß zunächst eine kleinere Kohleproduktion finanziert werden kann.
      Man muß wohl die Finanzkrise aussitzen.
      Auch sind die Chinesen mit dabei, die ihren Anteil wohl nicht abschreiben wollen.

      Meldet sich denn das Management gar nicht mehr ?

      :eek:
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 12:29:56
      Beitrag Nr. 2.754 ()
      Von den Basismetallen gefällt mir Zinn am besten.

      Die Lagerbestände fallen seit einem Jahr und steigen trotz der Konjunkturkrise nicht. Der Preis-Chart hat bei 11.500 $/t ein Doppeltief gebildet und es könnte sich eine W-Formation ausbilden.

      Sobald die Welt-Konjunktur wieder anspringt, könnte der Zinnpreis mit als erstes wieder zu alten Höhen aufsteigen ...

      Zinn scheint mir eine Beobachtung wert zu sein. Ich werde mir schon mal ein Long-Zerti suchen.

      Nachfolgend ein Artikel vom 10.11.08 zum Thema Zinn.

      Tommy :)



      Tin Makes a Comeback
      by: Hard Assets Investor November 10, 2008
      By Julian Murdoch


      Ask a room of base metals analysts what they are bullish on, and you'll get a tin ear. In fact, at the recent Inside Commodities conference, that's exactly what happened.

      For the most part, tin doesn't get a lot of attention. For the uninitiated, tin seems like something for woodsmen and cups. But lowly, non-glamorous tin is becoming increasingly important, overtaking lead as the metal of choice in modern electronics soldering, especially after EU regulations requiring lead-free solders was implemented in 2006. In 2006, tin accounted for 50% of solders; in 2007, that market share grew to 52%.

      This demand creep, however, isn't the sole reason for the positive feelings toward tin.

      "The reason people are bullish on tin is not a demand story; it's a supply story," said Catherine Virga, an analyst with CPM Group in New York and one of the participants on the Inside Commodities base metals panel.

      And that supply story has been building for years. The top two producers of tin are China and Indonesia, which combined in 2007 to produce 70% of the world's mined tin, and actions in those two countries are starting to limit the long-term supply picture.

      China First

      China was responsible for 40% of all mined tin in 2007. But during 2008, China became a net importer of tin, whereas in the past, it was a net exporter. Virga explains it this way: "China experienced quite a bit of supply disruption this year, especially around the time of the Olympics."

      The underlying reasons for the disruptions range from the usual suspects - power shortages and environmental concerns - to some idiosyncratic, Olympics-meets-tin specific ones. In other words, nobody wanted explosions going off while the entire world was on Olympics-heightened security alert, even if the explosions were intentional and controlled. As a result, mining was reduced.

      Beyond the Olympics, however, China is reacting to the steady decline in tin prices. China's No. 1 producer of tin-Yunnan Tin-recently announced that it would reduce output of the metal by 30% in the fourth quarter of 2008 because of price concerns.

      Indonesia

      In the case of Indonesia, the supply slowdown hasn't been because of Michael Phelps. In 2006, Indonesia cracked down on tin producers for tax and environmental reasons. But Virga says this is changing: "The government has slowly been reissuing permits, but it's not completely back up to previous levels."

      On top of that, the recent low prices have raised concern among producers, just like in China, so much so that the government recently announced that it's considering capping tin production for 2009.

      Not waiting for government intervention, a group of small Indonesian tin smelters (known as PT Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera) agreed to halt production on October 22 to help stem the price decline, taking 3,000 metric tons a month out of the market. The consortium is looking for an $18,000-per-ton price in order to resume production. Quite a bump from the $15,000 prices we're currently seeing.

      Prices have continued to decline even after production cuts, and now PT Timah (not to be confused with the group above), Indonesia's largest tin producer, may reduce its output to 45,000 tons of refined tin this year, down from an expected target of 50,000 tons. While this may not seem like a big reduction, it is a large decline from PT Timah's record 2007 output of 58,325 tons.

      With production declines occurring in the largest-producing countries, the rest of the world's production becomes more important to global supply.

      Enter Congo

      The Democratic Republic of the Congo was the fifth-largest producer of tin in 2007. "The Congolese government had planned a ban on exports of tin in certain provinces in 2009 as a way to encourage the further refinement of tin in the Congo," explains Virga. "This would have allowed them to benefit from the higher prices for refined exports."

      But now it's the constant civil war and tumultuous political situation that is affecting exports. Many tin-producing areas are in locations with the most dangerous conflicts.

      All of this has combined to drive tin stocks down to their current levels.

      An Opportunity

      So the question becomes, with low stocks and low prices, is this an opportunity?

      "The market is expected to be in deficit," says Virga, "even with the less-than-1% growth in demand that the market is expecting."

      In fact, tin has been in deficit every year since 2006.

      But even with this expected deficit, there's no sign of supply catching up, which does point to an eventual opportunity.

      Virga is quick to point out this isn't an immediate get-rich-quick opportunity. "No large surge in price is expected anytime soon because of the economy," she says.

      Still, the fact remains that tin is living in an extremely rare fundamentals position: dwindling supply, steady-state demand and an extremely suppressed price. Maybe no jump is imminent should the global economy continue to flounder, but the fundamentals are in place for a price jump when the recovery starts. For investors looking to take advantage of that jump, the easiest way is to purchase the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Tin Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJT), launched by Barclays Global on June 26, 2008.
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 11:31:27
      Beitrag Nr. 2.753 ()
      Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.070.614 von Urlaub2 am 26.11.08 09:16:50Altona Resources
      Seit Anf. Sept. habe ich keine Unternehmens-News erhalten.
      Der Preisverfall des Aktienkurses hängt wohl zusammen mit:

      - Finanz/Kreditkrise
      - Gefallene Spotpreise für Kohle
      - Unsicherheit bezüglich des Vorhabens von Altona mit hohem Geldbedarf für die Capex

      Falls CTL-Anlage und Kraftwerk nicht finanzierbar sein sollten, könnte Altona z. B. zunächst nur die reine Kohleproduktion in Erwägung ziehen. Das würde den Kapitalbedarf mindern. Wenn nach ein paar Jahren genügend Gewinne erwirtschaftet wurden, kann Altona immer noch auf CTL/KW erweitern.

      Tommy :)
      Avatar
      schrieb am 26.11.08 09:19:01
      Beitrag Nr. 2.752 ()
      Soros kauft sich in Kohle-Aktien ein ...
      BlackRock Advisors sagt, Kohle sei der beste Rohstoff, der zurzeit zu haben sei ...


      BEST COMMODITY TO GET INTO’
      Soros and other funds buy major coal equities at fire sale prices

      Author: Dorothy Kosich - Posted: Tuesday , 25 Nov 2008

      Tanking coal mining shares prices have attracted serious interest during the third quarter from some of the country’s foremost investors and fund.

      Investor George Soros bought a 2% stake or 2.9 million shares of Arch Coal, the nation's second largest coal producer, during the third quarter, as Citadel Investment Group and Invesco Ltd. snapped up 3.5 million shares of Peabody Coal, the biggest U.S. coal miner.

      SEC third-quarter 2008 filings show Soros also bought 833,658 shares of another U.S. coal miner, Consol Energy, as well as purchase another 490,000 shares of Brazilian iron ore mega-miner CVRD (Vale).

      Meanwhile Chicago-based hedge fund Citadel bought 1,688,088 shares of Peabody Energy as New York's Invesco Ltd. made a dozen purchases of Peabody stock, totaling in excess of 3.5 million shares. SEC filings show that Invesco also has holdings of more than 1.5 million shares of Teck, as well as shares in Canadian gold miner Agnico Eagle.

      As shares of coal mining companies have dropped along with the rest of commodities, investors have embarked on snapping up coal equities at fire sale prices. For instance Bloomberg reported that T. Rowe has bought Peabody, Arch, Consol Energy and Indonesia's PT Bumi Resources.

      Daniel Rice--manager of BlackRock Advisors Inc.'s Global Resources Fund, which is also among the largest holders of Peabody and Arch-told Bloomberg Monday, "Coal is the best commodity to get into right now. It's a lot less sensitive to downturns because it is needed for basic power generation, and demand is growing."
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