Wann platzt die TESLA-Blase (Seite 20810)

[ZenoCyprus]

Damit hier ein bisschen Realität in den Thread kommt, füge ich einen Artikel von FORBES und Daten von Trefis ein:

11/3/2014 @ 8:46AM

Gigafactory Will Cost Tesla $5 Billion But Offers Significant Cost Reductions

Tesla Motors unveiled details of its much talked about ‘gigafactory’. During the earnings release, Elon Musk announced that Tesla would build a gigafactory for the production of electric batteries. The gigafactory will cost Tesla up to $5 billion to build, but once complete, will be able to churn out enough batteries for 500,000 vehicles. To facilitate the set up of the factory, Tesla plans to raise $1.6 billion through issuance of bonds.

In addition, there are also reports that Panasonic could invest up to $1 billion in order to strengthen its ties with Tesla. The ambitious project will also see the automaker adding 6,500 employees and acquiring a whopping 1,000 acre land. Shares of the company were up 5% in the after hours trading. Since the start of 2013, Tesla’s shares have now gained more than 600%.

See full analysis for Tesla Motors: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/03/11/gig…

Demand For Tesla Vehicles Will Grow

Tesla recently announced its fourth quarter and full year earnings, during which it stated that it expects to sell 35,000 Model S sedans this year, up 55% from the 2013 figure. However, demand for Tesla’s vehicles could grow multifold once the lower priced Gen III model is launched in 2017.

As of now, demand for Model S exceeds the supply. Acquiring the desired number of batteries is one of the main reasons why supply trails the demand. Currently, Tesla buys its batteries from Panasonic. With the new factory, the automaker will be no longer reliant on its supplier to ramp up production.

Significant Reduction In Battery Costs

The gigafactory will help slash the battery costs by 30% in the very first year of production. As production rises, there could be further cost savings. The factory would begin production in 2017 and would reach full production in 2020. At its peak production, the factory would produce 50 gigawatt-hours of battery units in a year – more than the entire world’s current production. In 2012, twenty seven gigawatt-hours of battery were consumed globally.

The inception of the factory coincides with the launch of the Gen III in 2017. The automaker needs to drastically reduce the cost of batteries if it needs to launch the Gen III at a price point of $35-40,000. Currently, the cost of production comes out to be ~$400 per kilowatt hour of battery. But with the economies of scale and advancements in technologies, Tesla intends to push the down the figure to $200 eventually.

It’s not clear how many Gen III cars will be available to the public in 2017. Based on our conservative assumptions, we expect it to be in the region of 20-25,000 units. However, this could easily cross 200,000 units, once the factory peaks production.

Investors are not only bullish about Tesla’s future launches, but believe the gigafactory could even revolutionize the dynamics of the power industry. With 50 gigawatts of batteries, Tesla could even provide surplus batteries to the electronic industry. In fact, Tesla could become a leader in low-cost producer of energy storage. The potential impact of such a move remains huge and is one of the reasons why investors are so excited about the company’s long-term prospects.

See More for TESLA at Trefis | View Interactive Bernstein Research (Powered by Trefis) here: http://www.trefis.com/stock/tsla/model/trefis?freeAccessToke…

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE
• EV Market as a Percentage of the Total Passenger Car Market: Our price estimate for Tesla Motors is highly sensitive to the growth of the EV market during the course of our forecast period. We have measured the size of the EV market as a percentage of the total passenger vehicle market, which is expected to grow from the current level of around 85 million to almost 135 million by the end of our forecast period. We estimate the EV market (includes HEVs, PHEVs and BEVs) currently makes up close to 2.0% of the total passenger vehicle market, and expect it to reach 7.5% by the end of our forecast period. If the rate of adoption of the vehicles is lower, with EVs making up just 6.5% of the total car market by the end of our forecast period, there would be a 20% downside to our price estimate. On the other hand, if circumstances favor a higher rate of adoption, of say almost 8% by the end of our forecast period, there would be a 15% upside to our price estimate.

• Gen III Market Share:

Tesla is expected to begin delivery of the Gen III to customers in 2017. We believe that the company will sell around 45,000-50,000 units in 2017 and ramp up to more than 200,000 units by 2020. This equates to a market share (of the EV market) of around 1.3% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2025. We believe that market share will reach its peak of 3.6% in 2020, and gradually decrease to around 2.5% by 2025 as the market size of the EV market accelerates its growth rate around that time. If sales fall short of projected volumes, there could be a significant downside to the Trefis price estimate. Assuming the market size remains constant, if Gen III's market share manages to ramp up to only around 150,000 units by 2024 (a market share of 1.5%), there would be a downside of over 10% to our price estimate. Conversely, if the cars are well received in the market and Tesla ramps up production to 320,000 by the end of the forecast period (implying a market share of 3.2%), there could be an upside of 5% to our price estimate. Tesla also faces significant execution risks (delay in launching the Model X). Many newly developed plug-in vehicles have experienced significant delays, including the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, and Fisker Karma.

• Model S Gross Profit Margin :

Management is targeting a long-term gross margin of more than 25% on electric vehicles. Although we expect the bulk of Tesla's total car sales volumes to come from the Gen III, we believe that the Model X will generate larger cash flows due to higher margins. The Model X is expected to be priced between $70,000-80,000. We expect gross margins for the vehicle could be as high as 29% eventually. If the company is able to achieve 2% higher gross margins for the vehicle, there could be a 15% upside to our price estimate. Conversely, if margins are lower by 3 points, there would be a 10% downside to our price estimate. The main factors impacting the gross margin include a) retail price of the Model X, b) materials and manufacturing costs, and c) economies of scale in production. Retail price depends on Tesla's ability to sell high margin options and accessories to customers as well as the percentage of international sales, which command higher retail prices. Material and manufacturing costs depend on commodity prices such as steel, aluminum, and battery pack costs (which are expected to reduce significantly over the coming years). Lastly, the economies of scale Tesla is able to achieve at its Fremont manufacturing plant is an important factor for gross margins. The company incurred higher than projected capital expenditures in 2010 and 2011 in order to increase automation and in-sourcing at its Fremont plant, which should aid margins.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Tesla Motors is a Silicon Valley based automobile manufacturer focusing solely on the design, manufacture and sale of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and related technologies. In 2008, the company launched its first model, an electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster, which at the time was the only highway capable electric car available in the U.S. Tesla has ambitious plans for the future, looking to shift from a niche producer of electric sports cars to an established volume automobile manufacturer. The company has achieved the first stage of this transformation with the launch of the Model S in June 2012. The Model S is an electric luxury sedan priced upwards of $70,000 and competes with established luxury sedan manufacturers such as BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz. Tesla will leverage the Model S platform to launch other vehicles beginning 2015, the first of which is a crossover vehicle, the Model X. In 2017, Tesla plans to introduce its third major vehicle, currently referred to as the Gen III. The vehicle will target the mass-market electric cars and would be priced at a base price of $35,000. Apart from manufacturing electric cars, Tesla is also a supplier of electric power train components (batteries, chargers, motors, power management systems) to other automobile manufacturers such as Toyota and Daimler. Toyota is a significant customer and strategic partner for Tesla, having invested $50 million in Tesla's IPO. Tesla could emerge as a significant supplier of power trains as most automobile manufacturers are looking to introduce their own electric cars.

SOURCES OF VALUE

The majority of Tesla's value comes from the Model X and the Gen III, which will both be launched in the future (2015 and 2016 respectively).

Future model launches:

Tesla Motors has recently launched the Model S, a battery electric luxury sedan, in June 2012. The Model S will be Tesla's first volume car, and its success is crucial for the company's ambitious plans of becoming America's fourth automaker. After selling more than 22,000 units in 2013, Tesla is targeting sales of 35,000 Model S sedans in 2014. The company's Fremont manufacturing facility will be equipped to produce 50,000 Model S sedans by the end of 2014 on a single shift, so production can be doubled by operating on two shifts should demand arise. Tesla has also revealed its third model, a crossover SUV called the Model X. The Model X will be based on the Model S platform and will begin deliveries in 2015. In 2017, the company plans to introduce the Gen-III, a mass-market electric car which is expected to have a base price of $35,000.

Total electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid market size:

Tesla aims to become a mass producer of electric vehicles. In order to achieve that, there must be a large enough market. This is especially relevant for the Gen-III vehicle to be launched in 2017. As mentioned above, Tesla's value depends on its future electric vehicle sales, which in turn depends upon the potential size of the market. There are various factors that could affect the potential size of the market, such as the price of oil, fuel efficiency improvements in its internal combustion engine cars, the cost of batteries, recharging infrastructure, and government incentives. In China, the government is investing heavily in setting up a recharging infrastructure. China is already the world's largest automobile market, and it is growing at a much faster pace than the U.S. It is inevitable then that China will also be the largest market for plug-in vehicles. As Tesla expands internationally, China could be an important source of sales for Tesla, especially with the launch of the Gen-III later in the decade. Tesla has one showroom planned for China over the next couple of years.

KEY TRENDS

Falling battery costs to speed up adoption of electric cars

When the Tesla Roadster 1.0 was introduced in 2008, the battery cost was estimated at ~$36,000 for a 53kWh capacity, equivalent to $680 per kWh. This declined to ~$472 per kWh for the Roadster 2.5 introduced in 2010. Battery costs are expected to come down as technology improves and the manufacturing process achieves economies of scale. There are significant R&D expenses being poured into different battery technologies and it may be possible that an entirely new battery technology may be necessary for electric cars to become mainstream.

Tesla is employing a different form factor for its batteries compared to the rest of the automobile industry

Tesla has been using the cylindrical cell form factor, which is primarily used in consumer electronics (such as laptops), while the rest of the major auto manufacturers are using the prismatic (or flat) form factor. The rapid development in the consumer electronics industry over the past few years has helped reduce the per kWh cost for cylindrical form batteries, giving it a significant cost advantage. Tesla provides a number of battery pack options for the Model S, and offers far better range than competing electric vehicles. The company is a pioneer in adapting cylindrical form batteries for automotive use, as evidenced by the success of the Roadster since its launch in 2008. Furthermore, other automakers such as Daimler and Toyota have recognized Tesla's strength and are sourcing power train/battery components from Tesla. However, the prismatic form factor chosen by other automakers has its advantages. It is less complex (fewer cells per pack), and less susceptible to heating issues. Furthermore, the cost differential between the prismatic and cylindrical cell form will narrow over time. The evolution of battery technology and Tesla's ability to remain the leader will be a key trend to watch out for.

The electric car space is getting increasingly competitive with both established manufacturers and start-ups set to introduce new models

General Motors and Nissan introduced their mass-market electric vehicles in 2011 with the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf. The Volt is a plug-in hybrid (PHEV), providing a limited range on battery (~40 miles), after which a small internal combustion engine takes over. The Leaf on the other hand is a battery electric vehicle (BEV), with a range of ~100 miles. GM's approach allays 'range anxiety' in the consumer's mind, while Nissan's approach is less complex and possibly more cost effective. Toyota has introduced a plug-in Prius in 2012, and is developing an all-electric RAV4 mini SUV (in alliance with Tesla), while BMW also debuted the i3 in 2013. BYD, the Chinese manufacturer of plug-in hybrids, has ambitious plans for expansion in the US and Europe.

Government incentives for electric vehicle industry

In order to reduce dependence on oil, governments across the world are providing incentives to both consumers and manufacturers for the adoption of electric cars. In the US, for example, the federal government gives tax credits of upto $7,500 for the purchase of "advanced technology vehicles" (this includes EVs). This tax credit may be increased to $10,000. There are several other regulations, such as corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) regulations, the Zero Emission Vehicle program (ZEV), and subsidized loans for battery research and the manufacture of electric cars that can accelerate the pace of adoption. Government impetus in setting up infrastructure which will be crucial for the growth of the electric vehicle industry.

Changes in consumer behavior

Consumer behavior patterns are an important trend for electric car manufacturers. As oil prices rise and battery prices fall, it may become more attractive for consumers to purchase electric vehicles. Once there is a clear economic rationale to purchase electric vehicles, there could be a surge in demand. Other factors affecting consumer behavior will be the maintenance costs for electric cars vis-a-vis internal combustion engine cars, and the re-sale value of electric cars. Both of these factors are still unknown since mass market electric cars are only just being introduced.

[Amosoz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.610.531 von ZenoCyprus am 11.03.14 23:19:59

Oh oh, 7 Tonnen schwer. Das ist aber nicht gut für die Reichweite. Preislich dabei eher Premiumsegment.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.610.531 von ZenoCyprus am 11.03.14 23:19:59

Bezug????

Tesla ist halt auch eine Einheitsbezeichnung...

[ZenoCyprus]

Gut gerüstet: MDC erhält 3-Tesla-Magnetresonanz-Tomograph für größte deutsche Bevölkerungsstudie
11.03.2014, 13:10
Das Max-Delbrück-Centrum (MDC) ist für die im Frühjahr 2014 startende größte deutsche Bevölkerungsstudie, die „Nationale Kohorte“, gut gerüstet. Die Berliner Ultrahochfeld-Anlage des MDC auf dem Campus Berlin-Buch hat dafür jetzt einen 3-Tesla-Magnetresonanz-Tomographen (MRT) von Siemens erhalten. Im Rahmen der Nationalen Kohorte sollen in den kommenden fünf Jahren bundesweit in insgesamt 18 Studienzentren, davon drei in Berlin, 200 000 Menschen zwischen 20 – 69 Jahren untersucht und bis zu 30 Jahre nachbeobachtet werden. Ziel ist, den Ursachen der Volkskrankheiten Herz-Kreislauf, Krebs, Diabetes, Demenz und Infektionen auf die Spur zu kommen, um Vorbeugung und Früherkennung zu verbessern.

Der über 7 Tonnen schwere 3-Tesla-MRT in Berlin-Buch wird dem Cluster Berlin-Brandenburg der Nationalen Kohorte mit seinen drei Studienzentren Berlin-Nord (Campus Berlin-Buch), Berlin-Mitte (Campus Virchow der Charité) und Berlin-Süd-Brandenburg (Campus Charité Benjamin Franklin) zur Verfügung stehen. Von den 30 000 Probanden (gesunde Studienteilnehmer) dieser drei Studienzentren sollen 6 000 eine MRT-Untersuchung in Berlin-Buch erhalten. Bundesweit sollen insgesamt 30 000 Probanden im Rahmen der Nationalen Kohorte eine MRT-Untersuchung bekommen. Dafür hat die Nationale Kohorte fünf Studienzentren, eines davon in Berlin, mit einem MRT ausgerüstet.

Wie der Leiter der Berlin Ultrahigh Field Facility des MDC, der Physiker Prof. Thoralf Niendorf, sagte, entspricht die Magnetfeldstärke des 3-Tesla-MRT etwa 62 000 Mal der Stärke des Erdmagnetfeldes in Berlin. Dieser MRT gilt derzeit als das modernste Gerät. Das Berliner Ultrahochfeld-Zentrum hat langjährige Erfahrung mit MRT-Untersuchungen. Dort befinden sich neben dem neuen 3-Tesla-Hightech-Gerät, das ausschließlich für die Nationale Kohorte bestimmt ist, bereits drei weitere MRTs mit Feldstärken von 7 Tesla, 3 Tesla und 9,4-Tesla.

Sprecher des Clusters Berlin-Brandenburg der Nationalen Kohorte ist der Mediziner und Epidemiologe Prof. Tobias Pischon vom MDC in Berlin-Buch. Dort befindet sich das Studienzentrum Berlin-Nord. Es wurde im Experimental and Clinical Research Center (ECRC) des MDC und der Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin eingerichtet, das einen Steinwurf von der MRT-Anlage entfernt ist. In Berlin-Buch sollen 10 000 Probanden aus dem Nordberliner Raum und Brandenburg für die Nationale Kohorte gewonnen werden.

Generell werden die Probanden in allen Studienzentren dieser großen Bevölkerungsstudie nach ihren Lebensgewohnheiten wie etwa körperliche Aktivität, Rauchen, Ernährung, Beruf, befragt und anschließend medizinisch untersucht. Ihnen werden unter anderem Blutproben entnommen, die für spätere Forschungsprojekte anonymisiert in Biobanken gelagert werden, Körpergröße, Körpergewicht und Körperfettverteilung gemessen sowie Blutdruck und Herzfrequenz. Ergänzt werden diese Erhebungen von den MRT-Untersuchungen, deren Daten in einer MRT-Bilddatenbank erfasst werden. Mit diesen Daten wollen die Forscher unter anderem Einblick in klinisch noch nicht erkennbare Erkrankungen gewinnen.

Fünf Jahre nach der ersten Untersuchung werden die Probanden zur Nachuntersuchung gebeten. Die Forscher erfassen dann bei den Studienteilnehmern eventuell aufgetretene Erkrankungen und vergleichen die Untersuchungsergebnisse mit den bereits erhobenen Daten. Die Forscher erwarten sich von dieser Vorgehensweise mehr über Ursachen und Risikofaktoren für die in Deutschland häufigen chronischen Krankheiten – Herz-Kreislauferkrankungen, Diabetes, Lungenerkrankungen, Krebs, neurodegenerative und psychiatrische Erkrankungen sowie Infektionskrankheiten – herauszufinden.

Aussendung der Einladung in den kommenden Wochen
In den kommenden Wochen werden die Einladungsbriefe zur Teilnahme an der Nationalen Kohorte an Bürgerinnen und Bürger verschickt. Die Auswahl der Angeschriebenen erfolgt nach dem Zufallsprinzip anhand von Adressen, die die Forscher von den Einwohnermeldeämtern erhalten haben. „Die Teilnahme an der Studie ist freiwillig. Die Untersuchungen können nur mit Einwilligung der Probanden erfolgen“, betont Prof. Pischon vom Cluster Berlin-Brandenburg.

Initiatoren
Initiiert haben die Nationale Kohorte die Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, zu der das MDC gehört, Universitäten, die Leibniz-Gemeinschaft sowie Einrichtungen der Ressortforschung. Finanziert wird die Langzeitbevölkerungsstudie vom Bundesforschungsministerium, den 14 beteiligten Ländern und der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft. Die Kosten belaufen sich auf insgesamt 210 Millionen Euro.

Ein Photo von der Anlieferung des 3-Tesla-Magnetresonanz-Tomographen (MRT) können Sie sich im Internet herunterladen unter:
http://www.mdc-berlin.de/de/index.html

[gagaga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.609.705 von dlrowralos am 11.03.14 20:51:03

sorry, aber ich habs noch nicht geschnallt, was für Tesla toll dran sein soll, wenn ein anderen eine viel bessere Technologie hat als sie selber in ihrer noch zu bauenden Gigafabrik.

[gagaga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.609.705 von dlrowralos am 11.03.14 20:51:03

Das heißt, Tesla hat grad zwei Milliarden eingesammelt für eine Batteriefabrik, die 2017 in Betrieb gehen soll, und schon heute veraltet ist,
weil Sekisu eine bessere Technologie hat?

[dlrowralos]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.608.781 von gagaga am 11.03.14 19:10:00

gagaga,

NOCH NICHT, aber (vielleicht) , "was nicht ist, das kann noch werden" - der "Tesla S85" mit ZWEI DRITTEL BILLIGeren A........
Zumindest der (geistige) Zusammenhang zwischen "Tesla Motors" und "sekisui chemical" ist klar zu erkennen....
KRITIKER (ich selbst inbegriffen vor zwei Monaten) werden mir natürlich sicher vorwerfen: "Reine Spekulation ohne realen Hintergrund...",,
Entweder man glaubt daran oder nicht...wir werden sehen...

[gagaga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.607.445 von dlrowralos am 11.03.14 16:41:17

OK, thanks, hört sich gut an!
Die haben aber bis auf weiteres mit Tesla nichts zu tun, oder?

[dlrowralos]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.606.613 von gagaga am 11.03.14 15:20:23

Gib "sekisui chemical" in Deine Suchmaschine ein und Du findest X-Einträge...

MfG

[gagaga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.606.327 von dlrowralos am 11.03.14 14:53:23

Hast Du einen Link in Sachen Sekisui ?