Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash? (Seite 82)
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die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA schlägt brutal auf die Konsumneigung durch. Kreditkartennutzung ist Kreditkartennutzung, egal ob online oder offline:
Since 1928, reviewing the past 25 bear markets, there has been a lower price but in by the S&P 500 index 60% of the time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-market-tumb…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-market-tumb…
Ölkrise mal anders rum..die Läger laufen voll und über
langsam geht's ans Eingemachte in den USA:
25.4.
The Wall Street Journal
Millions of credit card customers can’t pay their bills and lenders are bracing for the impact
Credit-card debt kept many consumers afloat but now lenders and borrowers alike are preparing for pain
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/millions-of-credit-card-cu…
...
Banks hope that delaying payments will buy time for the economy to recover and consumers to get back on track. But for people who have no idea when they will be back at work, that likely won’t be enough.
Many Americans were already overstretched even before the pandemic, tapping credit cards and other debt at record levels to keep up with soaring costs for college, health care, housing and other expenses.
Discover, Capital One, American Express Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other card issuers have together socked away billions of extra dollars to prepare for big potential loan losses.
“We clearly have already had significant deterioration,” said Roger Hochschild, Discover’s chief executive, in an interview. “This was very quick and cataclysmic.”
Some lenders are also tightening the credit available to new applicants or existing customers.
...
25.4.
The Wall Street Journal
Millions of credit card customers can’t pay their bills and lenders are bracing for the impact
Credit-card debt kept many consumers afloat but now lenders and borrowers alike are preparing for pain
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/millions-of-credit-card-cu…
...
Banks hope that delaying payments will buy time for the economy to recover and consumers to get back on track. But for people who have no idea when they will be back at work, that likely won’t be enough.
Many Americans were already overstretched even before the pandemic, tapping credit cards and other debt at record levels to keep up with soaring costs for college, health care, housing and other expenses.
Discover, Capital One, American Express Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other card issuers have together socked away billions of extra dollars to prepare for big potential loan losses.
“We clearly have already had significant deterioration,” said Roger Hochschild, Discover’s chief executive, in an interview. “This was very quick and cataclysmic.”
Some lenders are also tightening the credit available to new applicants or existing customers.
...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 63.421.391 von faultcode am 22.04.20 23:35:13
--> so ist es:
23.4.
Big investors haven’t capitulated yet, so be wary of this market, warns SocGen strategist
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-wont-get-…
...
Our call of the day, from Société Générale’s multiasset strategist Sophie Huynh, says investors have likely gotten ahead of themselves. That is because the rebound has focused on technology, health-care and staples sectors, which benefit from a low-interest rate environment, easy monetary policy conditions and work-from-home trends, she said.
“I think there might be some limited upside at this point, because we would need to see a rotation out of those long-duration stocks into more cyclical ones like discretionary, energy, industrial, reflective of growth actually picking up and really a V-shaped recovery being priced in, rather than this tech-led recovery, which in my view is not sustainable,” Huynh told MarketWatch.
And despite the correction markets have seen this year, there is a way to go before reaching the “fully risk off” stage, she cautioned.
...
Zitat von faultcode: ...
3/ in den Köpfen der großen Money Manager ist "Value" immer noch Trash...
--> so ist es:
23.4.
Big investors haven’t capitulated yet, so be wary of this market, warns SocGen strategist
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-wont-get-…
...
Our call of the day, from Société Générale’s multiasset strategist Sophie Huynh, says investors have likely gotten ahead of themselves. That is because the rebound has focused on technology, health-care and staples sectors, which benefit from a low-interest rate environment, easy monetary policy conditions and work-from-home trends, she said.
“I think there might be some limited upside at this point, because we would need to see a rotation out of those long-duration stocks into more cyclical ones like discretionary, energy, industrial, reflective of growth actually picking up and really a V-shaped recovery being priced in, rather than this tech-led recovery, which in my view is not sustainable,” Huynh told MarketWatch.
And despite the correction markets have seen this year, there is a way to go before reaching the “fully risk off” stage, she cautioned.
...
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 63.421.391 von faultcode am 22.04.20 23:35:13
--> so ist es:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-battle-tested-pro-in-…
Zitat von faultcode: ...3/ in den Köpfen der großen Money Manager ist "Value" immer noch Trash...
--> so ist es:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-battle-tested-pro-in-…
Growth vs Value
interessantes Verhältnis bzw RSI im Russell 2000 (US-Nebenwerte):
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/125254934974317363…
=> nach dieser langfristigen Logik kommt der US-Bärenmarkt erst noch
Allerdings sehe ich diesmal drei Probleme:
1/ die Geld-Flut der FED, solange der U.S. dollar noch so stark ist
2/ die negativen Real-Zinsen in U.S. dollar, die nicht verschwinden werden zwecks Überschuldung. Das ist diesmal wirklich neu --> wohin mit dem Cash außer Gold?
3/ in den Köpfen der großen Money Manager ist "Value" immer noch Trash. James Anderson/Baillie Gifford mag ein Tesla-Dummkopf sein. Aber er sagte selbst einmal, daß er so einen Aktienmarkt in den globalen "Plattform-Aktien" in seiner langen Karriere nie zuvor sah.
Amazon ist so ein Beispiel.
--> man braucht ja nur auf die Berkshire Hathaway-Aktie verweisen im Hinblick auf "Growth" zu "Value", hier NASDAQ 100:
interessantes Verhältnis bzw RSI im Russell 2000 (US-Nebenwerte):
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/125254934974317363…
=> nach dieser langfristigen Logik kommt der US-Bärenmarkt erst noch
Allerdings sehe ich diesmal drei Probleme:
1/ die Geld-Flut der FED, solange der U.S. dollar noch so stark ist
2/ die negativen Real-Zinsen in U.S. dollar, die nicht verschwinden werden zwecks Überschuldung. Das ist diesmal wirklich neu --> wohin mit dem Cash außer Gold?
3/ in den Köpfen der großen Money Manager ist "Value" immer noch Trash. James Anderson/Baillie Gifford mag ein Tesla-Dummkopf sein. Aber er sagte selbst einmal, daß er so einen Aktienmarkt in den globalen "Plattform-Aktien" in seiner langen Karriere nie zuvor sah.
Amazon ist so ein Beispiel.
--> man braucht ja nur auf die Berkshire Hathaway-Aktie verweisen im Hinblick auf "Growth" zu "Value", hier NASDAQ 100:
22.4.
Hertz lays off 10,000 workers due to coronavirus shutdowns
https://news.yahoo.com/hertz-lays-off-10-000-workers-due-cor…
...
Car-rental giant Hertz is laying off 10,000 employees in North America in the wake of the coronavirus's massive hit to tourism, the company said Tuesday.
Hertz said the downsizing, equivalent to 26.3 percent of its global workforce, was necessary following increased cancelations and declining forward bookings as travel and tourism slows to a crawl.
The company disclosed the job cuts in a securities filing, saying the cuts were effective April 14 for non-union staff and April 21 for unionized workers.
Hertz expects to spend $30 million connected to the action, mostly on severance payments.
...
Bond 2022 --> so schnell kann es nun gehen:
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/12530092965788057…
Hertz lays off 10,000 workers due to coronavirus shutdowns
https://news.yahoo.com/hertz-lays-off-10-000-workers-due-cor…
...
Car-rental giant Hertz is laying off 10,000 employees in North America in the wake of the coronavirus's massive hit to tourism, the company said Tuesday.
Hertz said the downsizing, equivalent to 26.3 percent of its global workforce, was necessary following increased cancelations and declining forward bookings as travel and tourism slows to a crawl.
The company disclosed the job cuts in a securities filing, saying the cuts were effective April 14 for non-union staff and April 21 for unionized workers.
Hertz expects to spend $30 million connected to the action, mostly on severance payments.
...
Bond 2022 --> so schnell kann es nun gehen:
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/12530092965788057…
20.4.
Richard Branson offers his island as collateral as Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia face collapse
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/richard-branson-of…
--> 30 Minuten später:
Virgin Australia goes into voluntary administration after government rules out saving airline
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/21/virgin-aust…
...
Administration is likely to wipe out the value of stock in the group, including that held by dominant shareholders Singapore Airlines, Chinese groups Nanshan and HNA, the government of Abu Dhabi through state airline Etihad and billionaire Richard Branson.
However, administration may also help a buyer to reduce or eliminate a debt mountain of more than $4.8bn owed to banks that has crippled the airline as it continued to burn through cash while its planes were grounded.
...
--> zuletzt wollte wohl auch niemand mehr was von seiner Karibik-Insel wissen:
Branson has been criticized for seeking help from the government when he does not pay UK income tax because his primary residence is on Necker Island, which he bought when he was 29.
He addressed the criticism in his letter, saying that he and his wife Joan "did not leave Britain for tax reasons but for our love of the beautiful British Virgin Islands and in particular Necker Island." Virgin companies paid tax in the United Kingdom, he said.
=> Frage: wann kommt Virgin Galactic Holdings/SPCE hinterher?
Richard Branson offers his island as collateral as Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia face collapse
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/richard-branson-of…
--> 30 Minuten später:
Virgin Australia goes into voluntary administration after government rules out saving airline
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/21/virgin-aust…
...
Administration is likely to wipe out the value of stock in the group, including that held by dominant shareholders Singapore Airlines, Chinese groups Nanshan and HNA, the government of Abu Dhabi through state airline Etihad and billionaire Richard Branson.
However, administration may also help a buyer to reduce or eliminate a debt mountain of more than $4.8bn owed to banks that has crippled the airline as it continued to burn through cash while its planes were grounded.
...
--> zuletzt wollte wohl auch niemand mehr was von seiner Karibik-Insel wissen:
Branson has been criticized for seeking help from the government when he does not pay UK income tax because his primary residence is on Necker Island, which he bought when he was 29.
He addressed the criticism in his letter, saying that he and his wife Joan "did not leave Britain for tax reasons but for our love of the beautiful British Virgin Islands and in particular Necker Island." Virgin companies paid tax in the United Kingdom, he said.
=> Frage: wann kommt Virgin Galactic Holdings/SPCE hinterher?
Einfach weil es historisch ist ... gehört es hierher
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