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Energy News


12/18 10:40
Crude Oil Rises as Colder U.S. Weather Seen Boosting Demand
By Mark Shenk


New York, Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than 3 percent on expectations that colder weather will move this week into the U.S. Northeast, the biggest market for heating oil.

A weather system that`s expected to give Chicago a high today of just 18 degrees Fahrenheit (-8 Celsius) is forecast to move into the Northeast by the weekend. Until then, temperatures won`t rise out of the low 30s in New York, the biggest heating oil market.

``The weather is real extreme in the Midwest and will soon move`` into the Northeast, said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``The wind chills will really push up demand for heating oil.``

Crude oil for January delivery rose as much as 91 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $29.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices still are down 20 percent over the past three months, after OPEC raised output levels.

Heating oil for January delivery rose as much as 3.74 cents, or 4.1 percent, to 95.4 cents a gallon on the Nymex. Prices are 36 percent higher than they were at this time last year.

The Northeast consumes about 80 percent of the nation`s heating oil, and supplies of the fuel are down 27 percent from a year ago, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

A 37 percent rally in natural gas this month prompted utilities and power companies with dual-generating ability to switch to less costly petroleum-based heating fuels, further straining inventories.

``Temperatures in the Northeast will move to below normal to much-below normal over the coming weekend,`` said Joel Burgio, a meteorologist at Weather Services Corp. of Lexington, Massachusetts.

OPEC Output

In London, Brent crude oil for February settlement rose as much as 95 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $26.84 a barrel on International Petroleum Exchange.

In London, gasoil, for January delivery, representing European heating oil, rose as much as $15.50, or 6.5 percent, to $255.50 a metric ton on the IPE.

While demand for heating fuel from cold U.S. weather is prompting today`s rally, a 25 percent drop this month in an OPEC benchmark price may cause the producer group to cut output.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps about 40 percent of the world`s oil, will evaluate production levels at a Jan. 17 meeting.

The producers have spent this year adjusting quotas in an effort keep their benchmark crude oil price within a range of $22 to $28 a barrel. Four output increases this year, including two in October, brought the price down from a high of $33.84 in September. The price as of Friday, though, was $22.92 and OPEC ministers have said a drop below $22 a barrel would prompt an output reduction.

Traders are also awaiting signs that Iraq has resumed normal exports for the first time this month. Supplies were halted at the end of November because of a dispute with the United Nations over December pricing.

The UN and Iraq agreed on December cargo pricing 10 days ago and on a new six-month phase of exports early last week. Iraq exported an average of 2.14 million barrels a day last month.

The UN oversees Iraqi exports under sanctions imposed after Iraq`s 1990 invasion of Kuwait.




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