Commerce one das Ende.....(hotline) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[gordon the gecco]

Na. Hat von euch einer diese Schlagzeile im Videotext auf NTV gesehen. Was war gemeint??? Das Ende der Korrektur oder gar das Ende von C1. Hotline war glaube ich von Frick ???
Würde mich wirklich interessieren was der Bäckersbub so erzählt. Ich rufe nur nicht selber an weil ein Ferrari für Frick reicht.

[whoknows]

Hi gordon the gecco,

hatte eine ähnliche Frage schon zu CMGI gepostet ....
sind die denn verrückt ? 5 pm NASDAQ soll CMRC
Zahlen bringen ......

diese Schei.. 0190 - ... ist o.W.

so long, whoknows

[whoknows]

Hi gordon the gecco,

hatte eine ähnliche Frage schon zu CMGI gepostet ....
sind die denn verrückt ? 5 pm NASDAQ soll CMRC
Zahlen bringen ......

diese Schei.. 0190 - ... ist o.W.

so long, whoknows

[whoknows]

Hi,
folgendes war die einzig negative Nachricht für B2B


Monday April 17, 9:42 am Eastern Time

TheStreet.com - Silicon Valley
For B2B Stocks, the $50 Trillion Math Doesn`t Add Up

By Joe Bousquin
Staff Reporter

It seemed like a good number at the time. A nice, juicy trillion dollars.

That was the first big number in an area that has come to be known for them, the
business-to-business e-commerce market: Forrester Research in December 1998
used that figure to estimate the value of domestic goods and services traded ove
r
Internet-based exchanges by 2003.

Still, it wasn`t big enough. Forrester`s $1 trillion morphed into $2.7 trillion
a year later. Then Gartner Group came
up with a $7.3 trillion number for global e-commerce by 2004. This February came
the whammy: An estimate
from Banc of America Securities analyst Bob Austrian that the aggregate amount o
f all B2B transactions
across the entire business spectrum had the potential to reach $50 trillion. Tho
se big numbers drove heady rises
in B2B stock prices, as the market bid the likes of Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA - news)
and Commerce One (Nasdaq:
CMRC - news) to four-figure percentage gains in barely half a year.

But now, with many B2B stocks trading 50% to 70% below their highs, investors ar
e acknowledging that those
estimates were horribly overblown, if not meaningless. Perhaps worse still is th
at a hard look at B2B business
models has persuaded the market that no matter how big the numbers get, they`ll
never be big enough.

Take a Little Off the Top

Looking at some B2B exchanges, you might understand why. Typically the exchanges
, like ones in the auto and
aerospace industries, have been set up as separate, independent companies. They`
re owned jointly by the
trading partners that use them, and make money by charging transaction fees -- s
ay 1% -- on the deals that
are made through their networks.

Often, the technology partners that provide the software to the exchanges, such
as Ariba and Commerce One,
get an equity stake in the exchange company as well, and they may also get a fra
ction of the nominal
transaction fees. What this all boils down to, though, is that really big number
s in a market can become really
small numbers for those software providers.

"Look, a lot of industries just aren`t big enough or liquid enough for it to mak
e sense to take a quarter-point off
the top," says Duncan Thomas, chief executive and president of iiCaptain , a pri
vately held online supplier of
marine parts that makes money by marking products it sells up.

Trickling Down

Consider, for instance, an exchange recently announced for the $400 billion aero
space industry. It will be run on
technology provided by Commerce One, which will own a 5% stake in the exchange.
But Commerce One won`t
get anywhere close to 5% of $400 billion.

Why not? Well, because first off, $400 billion is the revenue for the aerospace
industry, not the amount that it
spends on procurement. Instead, the four founding aerospace companies behind the
exchange said they would
probably trade some $71 billion through it annually.

But Commerce One won`t get 5% of that, either. More likely, it will get 0.05% --
or 5% of a 1% transaction fee
-- on the money that`s spent through the exchange. On $71 billion, that`s $36 mi
llion -- annually. Hardly the
$400 billion potential that one might first think from reading press releases.

Not So Simple

It gets worse. Two weeks ago, Prudential Securities analyst Doug Crook questione
d whether B2B software
providers would be able to charge transaction fees in the future, given the penc
hant by big industries to cook up
these alliances themselves. At their most basic, Crook reasoned, these companies
are really just software
companies, and might -- egads -- only be able to sell software.

The B2B stocks, already well off their early March highs at that point, saw thei
r declines steepen, as exemplified
in the chart of Ariba`s stock action. After another round of declines Thursday,
PurchasePro.com (Nasdaq:
PPRO - news) was more than 80% off its high, Commerce One was down more than 75%
and i2 Technologies
(Nasdaq: ITWO - news) was off some 60%. webMethods (Nasdaq: WEBM - news) , after
a startling 36%
selloff Thursday, joined the crowd, with a 70% decline from its highs. Even a lo
ne holdout against the mass
selloff, the established software pusher Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL - news) , is off i
ts highs by 20%.

Still, "I wouldn`t make too much of it," Banc of America Securities` Austrian sa
ys now, when asked about how
the trillion-dollar estimates contributed to hype in the sector. "This is a sign
ificant market correction that we`re in
the middle of, but we have erased all of two months of appreciation. The market
very much believes in the size
of the B2B opportunity, or Ariba would be trading where it was last summer, whic
h clearly isn`t the case."

Ariba`s chairman and CEO, Keith Krach, hasn`t been dissuaded, either. "None of t
his has changed my opinion,"
Krach said in an interview. "There is no doubt it is a trillion-dollar opportuni
ty. When was the last time you heard
about a marketplace with the T-word in it? It`s the biggest marketplace the worl
d has ever seen."

What Wall Street Wants

Of course, the selloff, however steep, doesn`t mean the end of B2B. Ariba and Co
mmerce One still make money
off licensing fees. But at a few million dollars a shot, licensing fees just don
`t have the trillion-dollar allure Wall
Street wants.

Ariba, for example, announced on Wednesday that $26 million of its $40 million i
n fiscal second-quarter
revenue came from upfront licensing fees for its technology platform. That repre
sented a 71% increase in
revenue. Krach was accordingly bullish on the company`s earnings call.

"We literally see thousands upon thousands of these exchanges popping up across
every dimension, whether
it`s across horizontals, verticals, or dot-coms, and we`re seeing it across ever
y geography," Krach said. "There`s
an incredible amount of demand out there, and we don`t see any downtick at all."


But so far this year, the biggest marketplace the world has ever seen has only r
esulted in $40 million in revenue
for Ariba. Given that Ariba claims to be the biggest B2B player of all, that som
ehow makes $50 trillion suddenly
seem very small.

See TheStreet.com`s full site for more of its unique insider`s perspective on Wa
ll Street. Try a 30-day subscription
for free!

[joerhai]

Man das sind ja tolle nachrichten, wenn ich Sie nur verstehen(Englisch)könnte. Zumindest jedes 3 Wort.

[schnacke]

Konnte es nicht lassen und habe die Hotline eben abgehört.
Der Frick labert nur über VMR und Knorr.Desweiteren lobt er seinen Faxabruf zu CMRC sagt er nur kurz das am 21-23 Mai in London eine Messe mit British-Teleconm zusammen gemacht wird und das man wahrscheinlich einen neuen Großpartner presentieren wird. Sonst nichts.
Er sagte noch das man jetzt auf keinen Fall mehr verkaufen soll- sondern eher ans nachkaufen denken kann.Zu Ariba äußert er sich allerdings positiver - jedoch ohne Fakten.Der erste Satz zu CMRC kam nach ca 5 Minuten voher nur gelaber .
Diesen ARSCH rufe ich nie wieder an.Erst so ne dumme Headline dann nur Müll.
Ich hoffe ich habe euch ein wenig beruhigt---
Ich leide auch ----- Gruß Tschertsch


Dank an Tschertsch von stock-city Board

[micman]

Tja Schnacke, diese Erfahrungen macht wohl jeder mal.Spar dir die Kohle und hohl dir noch paar Commerce, was meinst du warum er den Mund noch nicht auf bekommt, der kauft erst selber ein, bevor der Wert dreistellig ist.Also ich hab heut nochmal nachgelegt-habe keinen besseren Wert gefunden.Vielleicht habt ihr ja noch paar Anregungen auf Tasche.Wollte evtl Geoworks u Grange reinhohlen !?-Um sich mal auf den Buchstaben "G" zu beschränken.

[whoknows]

Hi folks,

sorry for delay, erst das Bayern-Spiel dann die Zahlen......

vielen Dank für Eure Bemühungen, andere Info von dieser
besch... Hotline hatte ich auch nicht erwartet.

thx whoknows

[Alemanne]

Hey Schnacke, ich muß Dir voll recht geben.
Die 0190 Nummern sind die größte Verarsche die es gibt.
Ich habe noch nie!!!! eine 0190 angerufen, aber als Azawwi (oder so ähnlich) die Priceline als neuen Star gepriesen hat - da hat es mich halt gejuckt.

Über 6 Minuten mußte ich warten bis er mal anfing über Priceline zu labbern.

Die ganzen 0190er Nummern sind der größte Betrug!!!!

[buckweiser]

Zu Ariba äussert er sich positiver weil Förtsch Ariba in seinem Fonds übergewichtet hat, seine CMRC sind wohl ausgestoppt worden, ätsch, und CMRC macht momentan das rennen, die besseren deals haben sie ja ohnehin an Land gezogen. Für Ariba spricht, dass sie eine Menge von kleinen KUnden haben, bei denen grössere Gewinnmargen rausspringen könnten, aber das steht noch in den Sternen, am besten man besitzt beide mit momentanen Tendenz zu CMRC, da sie(bei aktuell vergleichbaren Umsätzen, jedoch grösserem WAchstum)ne Ecke niedriger bewertet sind.

Gruss, buckweiser.de

[Atze2]

Da ich den B2B-Markt als sehr lukrativ ansehe, habe ich mir Commerce One und Ariba in´s Depot gelegt. Ich denke, damit ist man auf der sicheren Seite. Eine Aktie wird sicherlich sehr gut performen, vielleicht sogar beide. Denn der Markt für B2B ist doch groß genug!

[prickelpit]

guckt euch mal den os 746667 an: b2b basket, best. aus cmrc, ariba, icge u. vertical net. lange laufzeit, kommt von 1,80, aktuell bei 0,45. da ist mächtig luft nach oben.