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[fanthomas]

Bear Market Corrections
Kenneth L. Fisher, Forbes Magazine, 11.06.01, 12:00 AM ET

Is it a new bull market? No. The rally that kicked off Apr. 4 inspired widespread talk that the bear market is over and a new bull market has begun. The market`s sideways move in May has done nothing to dispel that. Why don`t I think we`ve seen the bottom? The spring rally has just about all the signs of a classic correction within a bear market.

The most significant sign: As stocks soared for a straight month, long bonds simply tanked. This doesn`t happen at real bear market bottoms. It happens often during bear market corrections, which are temporary and misleading.

At real bottoms, when stocks start to rise, bonds rise, too. Stock and bond prices sure don`t head in opposite directions. At times they are very, very highly correlated, as they were during the 1970 and 1990 bottoms. Other bottoms aren`t so highly correlated, but they still move in the same basic direction, as in 1966, 1974, 1982 and 1987.

The only modern exception is 1962. But that was more the result of a foreign policy crisis-Soviet missiles in Cuba and a possible nuclear war-than the playing out of a normal, long economic and sentiment-oriented bear market, such as we`ve seen lately.

Why is a stock market bottom so linked to bonds? A new bull market in stocks is confirmed by bond prices because they compete so directly against each other for investor dollars-just as water quickly seeks its own level. When investors are optimistic, there`s plenty of money available for buying both equities and bonds. In a bear market correction folks often shift money from bonds to stocks to catch the ride. That doesn`t endure for long.

Here`s another way to think of it. After genuine bottoms both bond yields and earnings yields go down. A declining bond yield, of course, is synonymous with a rising bond price. The earnings yield on a stock is the inverse of the P/E, and it goes down as the stock price rises. Unless real, net new liquidity pushes down both of these long-term yields, you won`t get a new bull market.

This spring`s correction has reversed all the psychological damage of the market`s last major slide, re-buoying sentiment to its December levels. That is what corrections are all about. But just as bull market corrections are short and deceptively scary, bear market corrections are short and deceptively reassuring.

You know it is a sucker`s rally when the mass of journalists tells you to buy into it. Journalists are more sanguine now. You can see this on the June cover of Kiplinger`s Personal Finance, with its screaming headlines "Bye-Bye Bear" and "Sweet Ways to Make Money Now," along with a picture of a honey pot and bees. Egads! Don`t they know? Honey pots attract bears.

This is not the stuff of bear market bottoms. At real bear market bottoms most journalists disbelieve for many months thereafter. They`ve become convinced by the downdraft`s power that no real good can come to equities for a very long time.

At bear market bottoms you always have at least two despairing magazine cover stories on the "death of equities." So far we haven`t had any.

In my 1987 book I described a simple formula for predicting a market bottom. You don`t apply it until there is a real bear market, defined as 20% or bigger declines in the major stock market indexes. After this point is reached, wait until unemployment has risen one full percentage point from its low point before you call a market bottom.

We`ve had the 20% corrections: By the end of March the S&P 500, the Wilshire 5000 and Nasdaq were all off 20% or more from their highs. Unemployment was at its nadir of 3.9% last October. This April it hit 4.5%. Hence, we have another full four-tenths of a point to go. That will probably take until about September. And that means we face at least one more down leg in the bear market.

Note that rising unemployment will continue well beyond the bottoming of stock prices as it most normally does. Since we are well short of a market bottom, I expect layoffs to continue. They began in technology in January and February, rippled into other industries in March, and in April and May spread beyond America to the world.

As I wrote in my Mar. 19 column, the best single road map to this market is the 1980-82 bear market. Look at its corrections in 1981`s fourth quarter and in 1982`s second quarter. That is where we are right now. Prepare for the next downdraft. Stay maximally defensive.

Kenneth L. Fisher is a Woodside,Calif.-based money manager. Find past columns at www.forbes.com/fisher.
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Er sieht als Kursziele für den S&P 500 bis Ende August knapp unter 900 Punkte und für den Nasdaq 1200. Erst danach sollte der Bear Market seinem Ende nah sein und die Börsen in einen erneuten langfrsitigen Uptrend einschwenken.

Fisher lag in den letzten Jahren ausgezeichnet mit seien Vorhersagen und gehört zu den erfolgreichsten Vermögensverwaltern der USA.

Thomas

[Desue]

11.06.
bist immer auf dem laufenden, gell ?

[fanthomas]

seine prognosen sind immer mittel- langfristig und an seinen argumenten hat sich nichts geändert.

von heute auf morgen denken hat noch keinen reich gemacht, lediglich die banken.

thomas