Wird Marconi von Cisco übernommen? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[muhlan]

Habe diesen Artikel bei CBS gesehen:


CEO admits Marconi now vulnerable
Deputy forced out, CEO stays, Cisco, Alcatel in frame
By Peter Bale, FTMarketWatch
Last Update: 5:09 AM ET July 8, 2001


LONDON (FTMW) - Marconi`s chief executive, who survived a shock boardroom coup in which
his deputy was forced out, admits the telecoms equipment maker is now vulnerable.

After the worst week of his business career and an even worse week for Marconi (UK:MONI: news,
alerts) (MONI: news, msgs, alerts) investors, Lord George Simpson is talking the talk, saying he`s
determined to restore value for shareholders who`ve seen their Marconi shares fall more than 60 percent
in three days.

In an interview with London`s Sunday Business, Simpson
acknowledges Marconi is at risk of takeover after the collapse
in its share price after last week`s bungled warning that profits
would slump 50 percent this year. He hinted he was open to
offers.

"This is a horrible market. There is going to be a widespread
telecoms operators and telecoms equipment manufacturers;
we will play a role in that consolidation, as sure as night
follows day," Simpson was quoted as saying.

"But we are big enough, we have sufficient value within the company to ensure that there will be no
distress sale; that is not what this is all about. But we are determined to restore value for our
shareholders," said Simpson, having last week insisted that Marconi`s strategy - led by he and Mayo -
was on track.

Talk to me

Simpson said Marconi wasn`t talking to competitors yet and didn`t identify any potential partners.

Cisco (CSCO: news, msgs, alerts) has previously been mooted as a potential partner for Marconi and
then there is arch-rival, France`s Alcatel (FR:013000: news, alerts) (ALA: news, msgs, alerts) - but both
companies have problems of their own in the sharply contracting market for telecoms equipment as a
downturn spreads to Europe from the United States.

Simpson damned Mayo with faint praise after he was forced out late on Friday after a revolt from
shareholders. Mayo had been expected to take over from Simpson in two weeks, allowing Simpson to
move up to Chairman, replacing Sir Roger Hurn. See resignation story.

Mayo, said Simpson, was a "fantastically talented guy" who could spot long-term value and a great
deal-maker, but "the company felt that a different set of skills were needed."

It is clear, however, that leading shareholders faced the Marconi board with a tough choice on Friday:
fire Mayo, Simpson or both. Someone had to take responsibility for the profit warning and the
consequences to confidence of a daylong suspension of its shares. Ultimately, Mayo lost the contest
and Simpson says with a remit to get the future of the company sorted out.

"I don`t think he (Mayo) was happy about going," Simpson said with delicious understatement in the
interview with Richard Wachman.

But his comments to Sunday Business suggest Simpson may not yet fully appreciate the scale of
shareholder fury, acknowledging that despite the day-long suspension on Wednesday the Marconi board
didn`t actually discuss the profit warning until the evening.

One down, one to go?

Shareholders may not be satisfied with only Mayo`s scalp. Institutional shareholders remain furious --
Marconi`s founding father Lord Weinstock reportedly engineered the Mayo ouster -- and ordinary
shareholders are fed up with Marconi and its lack of transparency and delays in facing up to the
slowdown.

More than 500 votes came in to an FTMarketWatch reader poll even before Mayo quit on Friday.
Seventy-five percent of the votes said both Simpson and Mayo should go. That`s just a hint of the level of
anger among shareholders large and small. See story on anger among individual and institutional
shareholders before Mayo went.

Mayo was clearly out-flanked. The day before he had, as a
gesture of confidence in Marconi and by implication his
strategy, bought 200,000 Marconi shares at a near-record-low
price of 111 pence.

It closed on Friday at 104 pence, just off sub-100 pence lows.
That compares with its 245 pence price just before the warning
and a 52-week high of £12.76 repeat £12.76 in August.
Marconi has the dubious honour of being the first blue-chip
FTSE 100 stock to join the "90 percent club" of tech, telecom
and media stocks to shed 90 percent of their value since the
height of the market early last year.


Gleichzeitig habe ich ein Interview in der Computerwoche Nr. 27 vom 6.Juli.2001 mit dem Senior Vice President von Cisco, James Richardson gelesen.
Darin dagt er:

Richardson: Wir haben sicher im Durchschnitt mehr Foirmen übernommen als der Wettbewerb, aber warum sollte sich daran etwas ändern?
Nicht nur unsere Marktkapiatlisierung hat gelitten, ALLE Firmen sind preiswerter geworden. Eine Änderung gibt es nur inspfern, als wir stärker auf das Segment
und eine möglichst schnelle Profitabilität unserer Neuerwerbungen achten.


Also

1. Ist Marconi im Vergleich zu Cisco sehr niedrig bewertet
2. Sind sie im Segment optische Bauelemente Cisco überlegen
3. War Marconi schon profitabel und wird es bald wieder sein.

Abwarten, könnte sich was ergeben.

[SchmidtsKatze]

CISCO wird auch bald nur noch 50% wert sein. Hier übernimmt
keiner den anderen.

Cisco`s Ausblick wird höchstwahrscheinlich diesen Mittwoch bis Freitag erscheinen. Zieh schon mal deine Crash-Helm auf.

[DOBY]

Bei allem Unmut über die Gewinnwarnung bleiben folgende Facts bei Marconi:

KUV: ca. 0,6
KGV 01: ca. 12
Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis < 1

Ich denke der Markt hat hier klar übertrieben. Nur Idealisten konnten annehmen, dass Marconi der Branchenflaute entgehen kann. Da wundert die Reaktion schon. Hat man früher für Firmen im Optik-Bereich KUVs von >10 bezahlt so drückt der derzeitige KUV von 0,6 eine "no future" Mentalität aus. Allerdings verfügen Firmen wie Marconi über genügend Substanz um das derzeitige Gesundschrumpfen in der Branche zu überleben. Eines ist klar: Die Opto-Technik im Telekomsektor ist noch lange nicht in ihrem Endstadium sondern erst am Beginn. Vergleicht man die Bewertung von Marconi z.B. mit der von Ciena so sieht man dass die Kurskorrektur anderer Werte allerdings wohl noch nicht abgeschlossen ist (auch Ciena wird irgendwann um eine Gewinnwarnung nicht herumkommen)
DOBY