McKinsey Report für Rußland - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Der Moosalte]

Unter Mitarbeit des Instituts für Technologie in Masachuetts wurde ein umfangreicher Report für McKinsey gefertigt und Mitte Oktober veröffentlicht.
Der Report legt bestehende Mißstände in der russischen Wirtschaft offen und macht als Hauptursache die fehlende Konkurrenz zwischen den einzelnen russischen Unternehmen fest.
Dem 400-seitigem Report ist unter anderem zu entnehmen, dass die Produktivität der Arbeitnehmer lediglich das Niveau von 19% im Vergleich zu den USA ausmache aber man kommt auch zu dem Ergebnis das, wenn man die genannten Probleme, die sich auf die 10 wichtigsten Wirtschaftsektoren beziehen, zu lösen beginnt ein reales Wachstum des BIP um 8% p.A. möglich ist.
Allerdings ist das Hauptproblem, die vorherrschende Korruption.
Man kennt das Problem auch in Märkten anderer Länder aber nicht in diesem Umfang wie in Rußland.

[André K.]

Kann man durch den McKinsey Report zum Schluß kommen, dass ein anhaltendes Wachstum am Aktienmarkt möglich ist?

Ich denke ja, denn während der ersten 6 Monate dieses Jahres erwachte der Russische Aktienhandel in einer Weise zum Leben, wie es nur wenige zu Beginn des Jahres erwartet hätten.
Sowohl der Index, als auch die Umsätze (RTS) stiegen sprunghaft an; Händler und Anleger zeigten erstmals wieder ein Funkeln in ihren rot verweinten Augen.
Alle Rußlandinteressierten können endlich aufatmen, schließlich wurde der Beweis, dass der Russische Aktienmarkt noch lebt, angetreten.
Dieses Jahr half natürlich der erkennbare Fortschritt in den Verhandlungen über die Restruktierung der eingefrorenen Russischen Schatzwechsel (GKOs). Schließlich wurde die Bullenstimmung noch durch positive Meldungen von der Wallstreet über die Entwicklung auf den Warenterminmärkten, angeführt durch den Terminhandel für Erdöl und durch die Ankündigung des IWF in Moskau angeheizt. Die Erwartungen an neue Kreditbewilligungen waren hoch und erwiesen sich letztendlich auch als korrekt.
Trotz der vermeintlich guten Umsätze änderte sich nichts an der Rangstellung der im Handel bevorzugten Werte.
Im Gegenteil, die führenden Blue Chips dominieren in gewohnter Weise und absolut vor allen anderen Werten.
So waren fast ausschließlich die Werte der Öl-, Energie- und Telekommunikationsindustrie gefragt, deutlich angeführt von den Ölwerten.

Ich gehe davon aus das sich der Aufwärtstrend fortsetzen wird, natürlich in Abhängigkeit der Märkte weltweit (Y2K-Crash?).
Ich nehme an das sich das Interesse der Investoren zu Gunsten anderer Werte innerhalb der drei führenden Industriesegmente verlagern wird, was nicht heißen soll das sich die Blue Chips nicht weiter sehr positiv entwickeln sollten sondern das sich auch die seit Monaten oder "Jahren" vernachlässigten Werte im Jahr 2000 positiv entwickeln könnten.
Zwischenzeitlich wird es eine für den russischen Markt normale Volatilität geben und man wird begierig nach guten Nachrichten aus der Wirtschaft Ausschau halten, allerdings werden die Spaßverderber auch in den kommenden Monat von der politischen Bühne kommen. Die Politik wird in den nächsten Monaten von den Duma-Wahlen und den Präsidentschaftswahlen bestimmt.

Die drei Marktführer innerhalb der drei wichtigsten Industriesektoren (RTS)

ÖL -> Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz, Tatneft

Energie -> UES, Mosenergo, Irkutskennergo

Telekommunikation -> Rostelecom, MGTS Moskau, Uralsvyazinform

Gazprom als größtes und wichtigstes Unternehmen wurde nicht berücksichtig.

Der in den letzten Tagen gesehene Index Ausbruch aus seiner Range, führe ich auf Shorteindeckungen insbesondere bei Lukoil zurück, da man im Vorfeld der Auktion von Lukoilanteile erwartunggemäß von niedrigeren Geboten ausgegangen ist und deshalb einen niedrigeren Kurs erwartet hat und da hat Lukoil als Schwergewicht den Markt etwas gebremst.

[André K.]

RBC, 11.01.2000, Moscow 17:52:02

Khirstenko, "Russia Hopes To Win Admission To WTO This Year"



Russia hopes to become a full member of the World Trading Organization this year, Deputy Prime Minister Victor Khristenko told journalists following a meeting of the governmental commission. In his opinion, "Russsia has every possibility to upgrade its status of a participant to a WTO member" at the next round of talks on the admission to the WTO to be held in Geneva by the end of the year. Khristenko stressed that the main task for today was to specify Russia`s position on the market of services and agricultural production and added that the country would advocate an allowable level of subsidies for the agricultural sector. He also said that the governmental commission had discussed tariff measures, which Russia would propose at the talks on the admission to the WTO.

Kann sich jeder selber einen Reim drauf machen (China).

[André K.]

RBC, 13.01.2000, Moscow 14:52:09



Gov`t Set To Finalize Talks With London Club Of Creditors By End Of Q1


All negotiations with the London club of creditors may be finalized by January-February of 2000, and the
achieved agreements may be fixed on paper by the end of the 1st quarter, First Deputy PM Mikhail Kasyanov was
quoted as saying at a press conference today. He stressed that the government was striving to reach agreements
with the London club of creditors as soon as possible. The next round of talks will be held at the end of this month,
however, this schedule has not been agreed to with the Advisory Council of the London club.


Da sollte Herr Reitmeier seinen Ausstieg noch mal überdenken.

[André K.]

Russia confident on getting EBRD funds
By ANNA YARTSEVA / The Russia Journal
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development looks set to finance Russian investment projects worth 500 million euros this year following EBRD First Vice President Charles Frank’s visit to Moscow last week.
It comes on the heels of a December meeting between Frank and Russia’s acting President Vladimir Putin which resolved that the EBRD would continue to credit Russia despite problems of debt servicing and repayment with industries and banks financed by the EBRD.
EBRD investment in Russia stood at 700 million euros in 1997, but dropped to 220 million euros last year because the country accounted for 85 percent of its unpaid loans. Euros are currently worth about $1.02.
Economy Minister Andrei Shapovalyants said 14 previously agreed projects would be funded in the new round which will focus on the country’s private sector. He said Russia would be able to attract 500 million euros to cover those and other projects.
EBRD’s existing projects in Russia involve huge industries, including the KamAZ truck plant – which owes $120 million to the bank – as well as small enterprises. EBRD spokeswoman Elizabeth Walles said only the latter have been servicing and repaying their debts accurately.
Mintimer Shaimiyev, president of Tatarstan, where KamAZ is based, said the EBRD agreed to suspend default proceedings against the firm. The plant will undergo an international audit of its 1998 and 1999 accounting.
Shaimiyev said the agreement became possible after KamAZ fulfilled its business plan for 1999, coordinated with the EBRD, and obtained restructuring for part of its foreign-currency-denominated debt.
During his visit to Moscow, Frank also raised the problem of Russia’s banking system revamp. He said the EBRD is interested in helping Russia’s Agency for Restructuring Credit Organizations, ARCO, to restore regional banks so they could work together on programs to credit small- and medium-sized businesses in the regions.
Frank said the EBRD has also made progress toward resolving the restructuring of its debtor Uneximbank.
"We still have a long way to go. But our ability to work out restructuring agreements … will send a signal to the investor community that you can restructure problem assets in Russia in an open and transparent manner," Reuters reported him as saying.
Work is now underway to determine amounts of financing required for each of the 14 earmarked projects in various sectors of Russia’s economy.
While the companies’ names have not yet been revealed, Frank met with the managers of Moscow power grid Mosenergo; Russia’s Unified Energy Systems RAO UES; the Severstal steel mill; Vladimir Shcherbak, Russia’s deputy prime minister responsible for agriculture; and LUKoil CEO Vagit Alekperov.

[André K.]

Foreign investors’ hopes rise
By MICHAEL HEATH / The Russia Journal
Investors are relatively upbeat about Russia`s prospects under a Vladimir Putin presidency. Not necessarily because they know a lot about him, but apparently because anyone who comes to the office and puts in a full day`s work is going to be an improvement on Boris Yeltsin.
More important, though, is the sense among the international business community that Putin might really have the strength to ensure that laws in Russia are actually enforced.
"I think enforcement is the real issue now. There are hundreds of thousands of laws, and the key thing is to implement them, and implement them fairly," said Mark Cooke, chief investment officer of Brunswick Capital Management, a London-based firm managing fund investment in Russian equity.
"The law has to apply to the rich as well as the poor – and regardless of which ‘clan’ you belong to. It clearly needs massive change, and this will take time. But the state has to be strong enough to impose its will, to uphold the law and be able to punish, to crack down on white-collar crime."
Though Yeltsin impressed many with his courage, few Western businesspeople felt the same way about his management skills – in contrast to the decisiveness and discipline displayed by Putin to date.
"Putin has demonstrated clear effectiveness in waging war in Chechnya," said Bill Browder, managing director of Hermitage Capital Management, a fund management firm. "If he could apply the same effectiveness to the economy, life would improve in Russia."
Like Cooke, Browder believes enforcement of laws will be a key indication of Putin`s ability to encourage investment in Russia.
"The single most important theme for investors is the rule of law, the enforcement of laws," he said. "At the moment, no one can really believe a contract will remain valid or that securities laws can be enforced, and that needs to be addressed."
Browder said the general view among investors is that the most important catalyst for change in Russia was replacing Yeltsin.
"He was a very credible revolutionary but turned out to be a bad manager. The fact he has now been replaced can be viewed as positive," he said.
And Putin`s call for a stronger state, much derided in the Western press, is not anathema to everyone. Cooke said that when he reads what Putin says about need for the stronger state, he absolutely agrees.
"The major problem for Russia is probably not that the state is too strong and that it interferes," Cooke said. "The problem is the opposite — the state is too weak. It’s vulnerable to pressure from different interest groups, while its role should be as referee between those groups."
He said that since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Russian state has not had much legitimacy. It has done very little for its people, whether in terms of physical or medical protection, or education. To achieve legitimacy, the state must be seen to be doing this, to be treating people well.
Meanwhile, those working in business in Russia were cautious in their reaction to Putin taking over the reins, saying they do not anticipate the situation worsening.
"The effect on us is not going to be great, I would say neutral to slightly better," said Thomas Garman, general manager of Kodak in Russia.
"I think most people, myself included, had essentially given up on Yeltsin."
Yeltsin aside, Browder said investors were relieved when Putin indicated, while still prime minister, that he would not reverse privatization or confiscate property. That, he said, had been an issue of particular concern.

[André K.]

Russia’s next IMF tranche
By MICHAEL HEATH / The Russia Journal
AP

Analysts are debating whether U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will decide that the next IMF loan tranche should be disbursed to Russia.

As the United States swings into a presidential election campaign and Russia continues to duck serious structural reforms, it now looks increasingly possible that Moscow may not get any IMF credits at all this year.
On the back of corruption scandals in Russia and U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential hopeful Al Gore`s close involvement in the Clinton administration`s policy toward the country, U.S. Republicans are making Russia a major campaign issue.
"Republican presidential candidates are taking a stand against extending credit to Russia," said Ben Slay of PlanEcon, a Washington-based think tank. "[The Republicans’ attitude] might change after elections, but they are making engagement with Russia a campaign issue, so nothing will change until after November."
Russia signed a letter of intent in July 1999, promising structural reforms and to meet fiscal targets in return for a $4.5 billion loan. Analysts say although the country is doing quite well on the fiscal side, it has not stayed within the structural bounds set out in the July letter.
Russia has only received the first tranche of the loan, worth $649 million, which was disbursed in August 1999. A second, worth $640 million, was to be disbursed in late September or early October 1999, but Russia only met necessary conditions in late October. A third tranche, worth $640 million, was to have been disbursed in late November but, again, Russia only met the conditions in late December.
The legislation that Russia should have adopted in November as part of the third tranche was postponed, a Russian official said, because of the budget hearings (and Duma election fever) and will possibly be adopted this month or next.
As things stand, Russia has only fulfilled the second tranche conditions in full, while according to the time frame agreed with the fund it should be ready to receive the fourth tranche by now – but it has not fulfilled the conditions.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer, when questioned about Russia at a press conference on Jan. 7, said: "We have a variety of economic reforms, which have still not been done. And we have not yet resumed discussions following the Christmas and New Year`s break."
Officials from First Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov’s office said they expect an IMF mission to arrive in Moscow at the end of January.
Two crucial areas where Russia is failing to meet its commitments, analysts say, are banks and natural monopolies – essentially concerning issues including increasing transparency and providing quarterly financial statements on natural monopolies.
PlanEcon`s Slay also pointed to the energy sector. Russia, he said, agreed in its July letter of intent that oil companies would be denied access to the Transneft pipeline for oil export only if they failed to meet tax obligations. "We see oil is being directed to certain refineries and some companies are able to export more than others," he said, implying that favorites are being played in the oil industry.
On the Russian side, there is a belief that the government must pass legislation quickly for the loan to be released, unless the IMF, at the behest of the Clinton administration, takes a decision to release the tranche on political grounds.
"I don’t quite understand how this [the disbursement of IMF funds] can go ahead unless a political decision is made," said Oleg Vyugin, a former first deputy finance minister and participant in many rounds of negotiations with international financial organizations.
"At this point, the fulfillment of the program fails to meet the targets and deadlines that were coordinated upon with the IMF."
But he added: "If we presume that [consumers made payments to] Gazprom by 40 percent in cash and if the Duma adopts certain laws in February – specifically amendments to the Law on Bankruptcy of Crediting Organizations – the loan will probably be disbursed.
"But more likely, Madeleine Albright will arrive, consider the situation, and a political decision will be made to disburse the money," he said, though he noted what he described as Fischer`s "rather rigid" statement on Russia`s progress in fulfilling the program.
However, some in Washington say that although loans have previously been granted to Russia on a political basis, they see hopes for such an outcome this year as being optimistic – and not very realistic.
"Clinton and the Europeans are not likely to push for economic help for Russia, because they want to minimize the damage for Gore or [Bill] Bradley or whoever becomes the Democrat candidate," PlanEcon`s Slay said. "The only foreign policy initiative in Washington now is the Syrian-Israeli peace talks."
He said that politics aside, there are essentially three schools of thought on Russia receiving IMF loans: the optimists, who believe that after Putin`s election there will be a peace deal in Chechnya and money will be released in the middle of this year; the realists, who think Russia is unlikely to receive a tranche until the end of this year or early next year; and the pessimists, who believe right now is as good as it gets.
Overshadowing this debate, though, is the war in Chechnya, which the IMF`s Fischer alluded to at the press conference. When questioned about the different positions taken by the international community on Chechnya and East Timor, Fischer argued that they were different cases. But he did not dismiss the influence of the war in the breakaway republic.
"The Chechnya issue is obviously more complicated for our membership, [and] there is a great deal of distaste for the way the war is being fought," he told journalists.
"It`s a more complicated situation [than East Timor], and we haven`t yet faced that particular choice [of withholding funds because of the war]; there is a lot of technical stuff that needs to be done."

[André K.]

Lexington Troika Fonds baut auf Russland

Saddle Brook, New Jersey, 21. Januar (Bloomberg) - Richard
"Mac" Hisey gibt den Glauben an den russischen Markt nicht auf.
Er verwaltet nach wie vor Fonds mit dem Schwerpunkt auf
russischen Aktien. Nach dem Auf und Ab des russischen Marktes
seit 1998 hält der Manager des Lexington Troika Dialog Russia
Fund die russischen Aktien heute für "die beste Wette auf
unterbewerte Aktien weltweit". Er setzt auf die gestiegenen
Erdölpreise und die 150 Millionen Verbraucher Russlands. Sie
würden die Wirtschaft des Landes auf Kurs halten und die Erholung
seines Fonds vorantreiben. Der 80 Mio. Dollar Fonds war 1998 um
83 Prozent abgestürzt. Im vergangenen Jahr erholte er sich wieder
vom Exodus der Anleger in Russland und gewann 159,76 Prozent.
Damit war er die Nummer eins unter den 136 europäischen
Aktienfonds, die Morningstar Inc. verfolgt.

Hisey selbst sieht noch einen holprigen Weg vor sich, aber
ist er zuversichtlich, dass es langfristig bergauf geht. Die
Korruption in Russland und der Tschetschenienkrieg behinderten
das Wirtschaftswachstum ganz offensichtlich, und auch das
byzantinische Steuersystem sei entmutigend für die Investoren.
"Ich bin sehr zuversichtlich. Auch wenn wir ein ständiges Auf und
Ab erleben, glaube ich, dass dies eine gute Anlage ist und dass
sie zulegen wird", sagt er. Er deutet auf ein neues Wolgamodell,
das die einst kastenförmige Limousine der Sowjetära ersetzt hat,
um zu beweisen, dass Russland an einem Wendepunkt steht. Das
Motto sei nicht mehr so viel zu produzieren wie möglich, egal
wie es aussehe. Heute achte die Wirtschaft mehr auf den Geschmack
der Verbraucher. Der Automobilproduzent GAZ, der den Wolga
herstellt, gehört zu den grössten Autoaktien, die Hisey hält.

Die Erholung der Erdölpreise hat sowohl die russische
Wirtschaft als auch Hiseys Fonds angekurbelt. 38 Prozent seines
Vermögens hatte er zum 31. Dezember in Erdöl- und
Erdgasunternehmen angelegt. "Erdöl lief sehr gut, und das war ein
wesentlicher Aspekt für den Erfolg des Fonds", erklärt Hisey. Der
Fonds hat vor allem in Telekommunikations-, Versorgungs-,
Brauerei-, Bergbau und metallproduzierende Unternehmen angelegt.
17 Prozent des Fonds werden in liquiden Mitteln gehalten und 4,05
Prozent sind in Anleihen investiert.

Zu den fünf grössten Positionen des Fonds gehören zwei Erdöl-
und Erdgasaktien - Surgutneftegaz, Russlands drittgrösstes
vertikal integriertes Erdölunternehmen und Lukoil-Holding,
Russlands grösstes Erdölunternehmen. Beide seien ein Beispiel für
unterbewertete Unternehmen, die in Russland so zahlreich seien,
erklärt Hisey.
"Sie werden zur Zeit auf dem Markt für weniger als einen
Dollar pro Barrel Erdöl ihrer Reserven gehandelt", sagt der
Portfolio-Manager. Die Aktien der grossen multinationalen
Erdölkonzerne wie Exxon Mobil Corp. kosten eher zehn oder elf
Dollar pro Barrel Erdöl ihrer Reserven, erklärt er.

Unter den fünf grössten Positionen fanden sich zum 31.
Dezember ausserdem die Vimpel-Communications, Russlands grösstes
Mobilfunkunternehmen, die Unified Energy Systems, Russlands
staatliches Versorgungsunternehmen, Norilsk Nickel, der weltweit
grösste Nickelproduzent, der zwei Drittel der weltweiten
Palladiumproduktion und 20 Prozent des Platins herstellt. Hisey
hält es für möglich, dass der Fonds wieder ein Jahr wie 1998
erleben könnte. "Alles ist möglich, ganz besonders in Russland",
sagt er.

Mit seiner Rendite von 159,76 Prozent im Jahr 1999 hat der
Lexingtons Troika Fund die 21,04 Prozent Zuwachs im Standard &
Poor`s 500 Index um 138,72 Prozentpunkte überrundet. Der Fonds
ging im Juli 1996 an den Start und erzielte 1997 eine Rendite von
67,40 Prozent. Ende Dezember hatte der Fonds noch ein Vermögen
von 56 Mio. Dollar. Am Freitag waren es bereits 80 Mio. Dollar.
"Seit Anfang des Jahres ist das Interesse der Anleger hoch", sagt
Hisey. Der Rücktritt von Boris Jeltzin, die Parlamentswahlen und
die Auflösung des Jahr 2000 Problems haben den Kapitalzufluss
angekurbelt.

Für den Fonds wird kein Ausgabeaufschlag verlangt. "Wir
ermutigen die Leute ausdrücklich langfristig zu investieren. Wir
raten wirklich jedem davon ab, nur kurzfristig anzulegen. Deshalb
ziehen wir zwei Prozent ab, wenn jemand sein Kapital weniger als
ein Jahr im Fonds lässt", erklärt Hisey.

Die zehn positionen am 31. Dezember und ihr Anteil am
Fondsvermögen in Prozent:

Surgutneftegaz 16.75
LUK-oil Holdings 16.32
Vimpel Communications 7.29
Unified Energy Systems 6.48
Norilsk Nickel 6.43
AO Tatneft 5.08
Mosenergo 3.39
Golden Telecom Inc. 3.33
Rostelekom 2.92
Sun Brew 1.88

Kathie O`Donnell in Boston /JN
((Lexington Troika`s Hisey a True Believer: Personal Funds))

-0- (DBN) Jan/21/2000 10:47

[André K.]

East Europe mergers at record high in `99


By DAVID CHANCE / Reuters



LONDON – Mergers and acquisitions in Eastern Europe hit a record $16.86 billion in 1999, and bankers say the pace will accelerate as the region comes closer to European Union membership.

Although the figure is small compared with single deals worth hundreds of billions in the United States, figures from Thomson Financial Securities Data show Eastern Europe bounced back sharply from the Russian crisis of 1998 and the Asian crisis a year earlier.

The dollar value of deals rose 86 percent in 1999 from 1998, resuming a rising trend from 1995, and the number of deals completed in 1999 was a record 1,148, more than double 1998.

"As we get closer to European Union entry, these countries are going to attract more attention. Many key companies are already saying this market is their second home market," said Todd Berman, head of Salomon Smith Barney`s investment banking team for the region.

Salomon advised Deutsche Telekom AG on the largest single deal in 1999, when it paid $2 billion for U.S. group MediaOne`s Eastern Europe assets as the region followed a global trend for telecoms, banking and energy deals.

Banking alone accounted for $4.548 billion in deals, or 27 percent of the total number of deals by value in 1999, although the Thomson figures exclude split-offs such as the MediaOne deal.

If insurance and investment firms are added in, that number rises to $6.177 billion, or almost 37 percent of the total.

Next most popular were telecommunications where deals were worth $3.27 billion, or 19.4 percent of the total, and oil and gas came third with deals worth $2.074 billion, or 19 percent.

Bankers say telecoms and banks offer clear advantages. Both are oriented toward the consumer, who has had limited access to services. And in many cases, local players do not have the expertise or money to develop them on their own.

Despite the Russian debt default of 1998, the country did not disappear from capital markets.

Deutsche brought off the sale of a stake in the world`s largest gas company, Gazprom, and an overseas stock offer for Golden Telecom Inc. worth $55 million.

"The fact is that where there is a will and expertise, there is a way," said Deutsche`s regional head Nicholas Jordan.

He believes there could be more telecoms deals, noting that "Russia has more than one telephone company," and said the energy sector could again be active.

LUKoil was active in Russia as well and bought another oil producer with a $130 million stock deal, while Belgium`s Interbrew, one of the world`s largest beer makers, also bought into Russia.

In the industrial sector, Ford Motor Co. announced a $150 million plant in Russia.