Russische Lageberichte zum Irakkrieg - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[ulfur]

Was steckt hinter den hier schon mehrfach angesprochenen russischen Irakberichten (auf www.aeronautics.ru)? Stammen die Angaben tatsächlich zum Teil aus russischen Geheimdienstberichten? Aus diesen Berichten habe ich zum erstenmal vernommen, daß z.B. Umm Kasr noch umkämpft wird, als hier alle Medien die Einnahme der Stadt meldeten. Die Meldung, daß die Amis weitere 100000 Soldaten in den Irak schicken müssen, meldeten diese Berichte auch lange, bevor dies in der westlichen Öffentlichkeit verbreitet wurde. Ich denke daher immer mehr, daß es sich nicht um gefakte Berichte, sondern tatsächlich um profunde Hintergrundberichte zum Irakkrieg handelt.

Der Spiegel hat auch schon um diese Quelle gerätselt:


SPIEGEL ONLINE - 27. März 2003, 15:21
http://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/politik/0,1518,242093,00.html
Nachrichten vom Krieg

"...bereiten sich die USA auf ein Gemetzel vor"

Von Frank Patalong
Wer hat Recht in diesem Krieg? Wieviel Tote gibt es bereits? Alternative Websites stellen Zeugenaussagen gegen die Berichte der Profis. Arabische Online-Medien wettern gegen amerikanische Nachrichtenagenturen. Eine russische Info-Site präsentiert gar angeblich abgehörte US-Funksprüche. Eine Anleitung für die schwierige Suche nach der Wahrheit im Netz.


"Venik`s Aviation": Russisches Luftfahrt- und Rüstungsmagazin als Irak-Newsquelle?




Was stimmt? Ist es so, wie es das britische Verteidigungsministerium darstellt? Dass bis zum heutigen Tag insgesamt 22 britische Soldaten im Irak ihr Leben ließen, die meisten davon durch Unfälle?
Oder ist es so, dass allein gestern und nur bei einem einzigen Überfall nahe Basra acht britische Soldaten starben und mehr als 30 verletzt wurden?
Wenn es so wäre, dann stimmten womöglich auch viele andere Angaben, die eine russische Website derzeit ein, zweimal am Tag verbreitet: Über den stockenden Kampf um einzelne Städte. Darüber, wie die Nachschublinien zerfasern, während die erste Angriffswelle gen Bagdad rollt. Über den Tod von über 40 US-Amerikanern nur beim Kampf um Nassirija. Über die Müdigkeit der Alliierten und darüber, dass der übermäßige Gebrauch von Präzisionsbomben und Raketen die Vorräte schnell erschöpfe. Heute berichtet die Website, dass über 30 Prozent aller "Tomahawk"-Raketen bereits verbraucht seien.
Zwei Berichte am Tag: Das ist nicht viel, dafür steht aber auch besonders viel drin in den nur auf den ersten Blick nüchternen Berichten zur Lage im Irak-Krieg. Mehr noch: Dort stehen ganz andere Dinge, als die, die Großbritannien und die USA die Welt erfahren lassen. Denn das jeder Newsfluss aus dem Irakkrieg gefiltert und manipuliert ist, steht völlig außer Frage. Auch blanke Nachrichten sind Waffen. Zu klären bleibt also stets, wer am wenigsten lügt, verbiegt, verschweigt.
Was ist wahr?
Diese Frage wird man wohl erst in einigen Jahren beantworten können. Entsprechend schnell verbreiten sich die Adressen von Webseiten, die augenscheinlich aktuelle und andere Nachrichten liefern, über das Web.



"Aggression against Iraq": Geheimdienst-Briefings als Nachrichtenquelle



Parteiisch sind dabei längst nicht nur die direkt in den Krieg involvierten Nationen und ihre Medien. Deutsche Medien interpretieren das Material, das ihnen Militär und Nachrichtenagenturen liefern, ganz anders als ihre britischen und amerikanischen Gegenstücke.
Über der russischen Nachrichtenseite steht als Motto "Aggression gegen Irak", und damit ist die Perspektive klar. Verfasst werden die Lagebericht-artigen Artikel von "einer Gruppe von Journalisten und Militärexperten aus Russland" - der Website-Betreiber selbst tritt quasi als Gastgeber auf. Diese namenlose Gruppe will ihren Lesern "akkurate und aktuelle Berichte von der Lage im Irak" bieten und stützt sich dabei auf Quellen, die man anderenorts nicht unbedingt zitiert findet: Jeder zweite Absatz verweist auf abgehörte Funksprüche oder Telefonate.
Wer da abhört, daraus macht die Website kein Hehl: Die Artikel seien Übersetzungen von veröffentlichten Berichten des russischen militärischen Geheimdienstes Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravleniye GRU. Der stellt in Russland das Gegenstück zur amerikanischen NSA dar und ist auf Spionage mit elektronischen Mitteln spezialisiert. Die Texte finden sich wortgleich auch auf anderen Webseiten, der Quellenvermerk ist immer der selbe.
Möglich ist alles. Die Website wird von "Venik`s Aeronautics" unterhalten, von zahlreichen Quellen als "einflussreiche News-Website" zur russischen militärischen Luftfahrtindustrie bezeichnet. Links hin zu Venik`s finden sich in diversen Katalogen unter Stichworten wie "Militär", "Rüstungsindustrie" und "Luftfahrt", aber auch auf zahlreichen amerikanischen Websites verwandter Unternehmen bis hin zu Seiten des US-Militärs. Bisher jedenfalls, lernt man da, wurde Venik durchaus ernst genommen. Was also ist wahr? ...

[ulfur]

Der Bericht vom 29.03.03:

The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide
accurate and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report
based on the Russian military intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.

March 29, 2003, 0924hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - During the past day the situation on the US-Iraqi front remained largely
unchanged. The US is continuing reinforcing the attack group near Karabela for a thrust toward Baghdad. By the morning of March 29
up to 20,000 coalition troops were massed in the area of Karabela. This forces includes up to 200 tanks, 150 artillery systems and
more than 250 helicopters. The order for the attack will be given by the coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks, who, according to
intercepted radio communications, will personally inspect the troops during the next several hours.

Around 1900hrs yesterday an Apache attack helicopter crashed. Intercepted radio communications show that the helicopter was
heavily damaged in a combat mission. The helicopter`s pilot lost control during landing and the helicopter crashed, causing serious
damage to another helicopter that landed earlier.

The coalition troops have so far failed to take An-Nasiriya despite of the categorical orders from the command and more than 800
combat missions by the strike aircraft. All attempts to break through the Iraqi defense were met by Iraqi counterattacks. After 24
hours of fighting the coalition troops only managed to advance several hundred meters in two sectors near An-Nasiriya at the cost of 4
destroyed armored personnel carriers, no less that 3 Marines killed by sniper and mortar fire, 10 wounded and 2 missing in action.
The exact Iraqi losses are being determined.

The Americans have also failed to advance near An-Najaf. Every coalition attack was met by massive artillery barrages from the Iraqi
side. Later during the day the Iraqis mounted a counterattack throwing the US forces back by 1.5-2 kilometers. No fewer than 10
Marines were killed or wounded. After exchanging fire for six hours both warring sides remained in the same positions. Iraqi losses in
this area are estimated to be 20 killed and up to 40 wounded.

Near Basra the British troops pushed the Iraqi defense lines on the Fao peninsula but were unable to capture the entire peninsula.
The British advance was a maximum of 4 kilometers from the highway leading to Basra. Radio intercepts show that in this attack the
Iraqis shot down a British helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were destroyed by landmines. At least 2 [British]
servicemen were killed, around 20 were wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.

Exchange of fire continued in the area of the Basra airport. The Iraqis destroyed one coalition APC wounding two coalition soldiers.
The Iraqi losses are difficult to estimate, but available information suggests that up to 20 Iraqi soldiers and local militia members
might have been killed in the air and artillery strikes.

All attempts by the British troops to break through the Iraqi defenses from the south along the Al-Arab river have yielded not results.
The British command reported that it is unable to storm Basra with the available forces and will require no less than two additional
brigades and at least five additional artillery battalions. Thus, to avoid further casualties the British are adopting defensive tactics,
while trying to maintain a tight blockade around Basra and trying to improve their positions with small localized attacks. The British
are also maintaining pressure on the Iraqi positions on the Fao peninsula.

The psychological levels among the city`s residents, according to interviews, is far from critical. The Iraqi military made several public
announcements to the residents offering them a chance to leave the city. However, most of the residents do not want to leave, fearing
the faith of the Palestinian refugees, who, after losing their homes, gained pariah status in the Arab world. Basra`s residents were
extremely depressed by the video footage aired by the coalition command showing Iraqis on the occupied territories fighting for food
and water being distributed by the coalition soldiers. The city`s population views this as a sample of what awaits them if the
Americans come...

At the Al-Kuwait airport the unloading of the 4th Mechanized Infantry Division is continuing and is expected to be completed by the
night of April 1. During a night flight one of the US military transport aircraft requested an emergency landing. What happened to the
plane is still being determined.

Currently the coalition command is deciding how better use the 4th Infantry Division. The complete deployment [of the division] and
preparations for combat are expected to take at least 10 days. However, the combat units require immediate reinforcements and it is
possible that the [4th Infantry} Division will be joining combat in stages, as the units become ready. This will mean a considerable
reduction of the Division`s combat effectiveness.

A report was obtained, prepared by the Al-Kuwait-based [coalition] Psychological Operations Tactical Group for the [coalition] Special
Ground Forces Command. The report analyzed the effectiveness of the information and propaganda war. According to the report,
analysis of the television broadcasts, intercepted radio communications, interrogations of Iraqi POWs show that psychologically the
Iraqis are now "more stable and confident" that they were during the last days before the war. This, according to the report, is due
primarily to the coalition`s numerous military failures.

"...Following nervousness and depression [of the Iraqis] during the first days of the war we can now observe a burst of patriotic and
nationalistic feelings. ...There has been a sharp increase in the number of Iraqi refugees, who left the country before the war, returning
to Iraq. A "cult of war" against the US and the UK is now emerging among the Iraqis...", the report states. [Reverse translation from
Russian]

[Coalition] analysts believe that if this attitude of the Iraqis is not changed within the next 7 days, a "resistance ideology" may take
over the Iraqi minds, making the final [coalition] victory even more difficult. In response to this report the US Army Psychological
Operations command decided to combine all Iraqi POWs into large groups and to distribute the resulting video footage to the world
media. A more active use of the Iraqi opposition was suggested for propaganda work in the occupied villages. The same opposition
members will be used to create video footage of the "repented" Iraqi POWs and footage of the local [Iraqi] population "opposing
Saddam."

Radio communications intercepted during the last five days suggest that the coalition is using Israeli airfield for conducting night air
strikes against Iraq. Combat aircraft are taking off regularly from the [Israeli] Hatzerim and the Navatim airbases do not return to the
same bases but fly toward the border with Jordan while maintaining complete radio silence.

Possibly these are just Israeli Air Force exercises, However, [Russian] radio intercept and radar units observe increased intensity of
radio communications coming from the Jordanian air force and air defense communication centers during such overflights, as well as
changes in the operating modes of the US Army "Patriot" tracking radars deployed in Jordan. This indicates the Israeli airbases as
used as forward airfield or that some of the coalition air force units are based there. Normally the IAF F-15I fighter-bombers and A-4N
strike aircraft operate from the Hatzerim airbase and the F-16 fighter-bombers operate from the Nevatim base.

Experts believe that these airbases may be used by the F-117 stealth bombers "officially" based at the Al-Udaid airbase in Qatar.
Using these two locations minimizes the risk to the F-117s by allowing them to fly along the left bank of the Euphrates (in the
direction of Turkey) and to avoid the dangerous maneuvering over Iraq.

The destruction of the telephone stations in Baghdad did nothing to disrupt the communications of the Iraqi army. The coalition
command acknowledged this fact after analyzing the dense [Iraqi] radio traffic. Because of that the USAF was ordered to employ the
most powerful available [conventional] munitions against predetermined strategic targets. This attacks will be carried out immediately
before renewing ground advance.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-29-03, translated by Venik).

http://www.aeronautics.ru

[Erika007]

konrad adenauer unterschied zwischen der wahrhei, der reinen wahrheit und der lauteren wahrheit.

wie jeder weiß, ist jetzt die zeit der rasenden innovation, eines rasenden entwicklungstempos:

nun gibt es auch noch eine höhere wahrheit.

und die entstammt der wallstreet!

[katak]

ihr braucht nicht immer auf dir aeronautics seite zu gehen. die haben ihre Bericht von www.iraqwar.ru.
Dort ist der Bericht auch in English, man muss nur auf die englische Flagge klicken, der Bericht ist dort schon frueher reingestellt.

[ulfur]

March 30, 2003, 2042hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - No significant changes have been reported during March 29-30 on the Iraqi-US front. Positional combat, sporadic exchange of fire and active search and reconnaissance operations by both sides continue along the entire line of the front.

American troops continue massing near Karabela. As was mentioned in the previous update, the US group of forces in this area numbers up to 30,000 troops, up to 200 tanks and up to 230 helicopters. Latest photos of this area suggest that the [US] troops are busy servicing and repairing their equipment and setting up the support infrastructure.

According to radio intercepts, the coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks has visited the US forces near Karabela. He personally inspected the troops and had a meeting with the unit commanders. Currently no information is available about the topics discussed during the meeting. However, it is believed that the [coalition] commander listened to the reports prepared by the field commanders and formulated the main objectives for the next 2-3 days.

The current technical shape of the coalition forces was discussed during the meeting at the coalition central headquarters. During a personal phone conversation with another serviceman in the US one participant of this meeting called this technical state "depressing". According to him "...a third of our equipment can be dragged to a junk yard right now. We are holding up only thanks to the round-the-clock maintenance. The real heroes on the front lines are not the Marines but the "ants" from the repair units. If it wasn`t for them we`d be riding camels by now..." [Reverse-translated from Russian]

Based on the intercepted radio communications, reports from both sides and other intelligence data, since the beginning of the war the coalition lost 15-20 tanks, around 40 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, more than 50 military trucks and up to 10 helicopters. In addition to that there have been at least 40 more disabled tanks, about the same number of disabled APCs and IFVs, about 100 disabled wheeled vehicles of all types and around 40 disabled helicopters. These numbers are based on the analysis of non-classified technical reports received daily by the Pentagon.

During the attack last night up to two US Marine battalions attempted to push the Iraqis out of their defensive positions near An-Najaf. Despite of the preliminary 4-hour-long artillery and aerial bombardment once they approached the Iraqi positions the US troops were met with heavy machine-gun and RPG fire and were forced to return to their original positions. One US tanks was destroyed by a landmine and two APCs were hit during this night attack. Radio intercepts show that 2 Marines were killed and 5 were wounded. The latest attempt by the US troops to improve their positions on the left bank of the Euphrates near An-Nasiriya was also a failure. Despite of all the precautions taken to ensure the tactical surprise the US forces were met with heavy fire and returned to the original positions. According to the reports by the [US] field commanders, three Marines were missing in action and four were wounded in this engagement.

These failed attacked have once again confirmed the fears of the coalition command that the Iraqi forces were much better technically equipped than was believed before the war. In particular, the DIA [US Defense Intelligence Agency] intelligence report from February 2003 insisted that the Iraqi army practically had no night vision equipment except for those systems installed on some tanks and serviceability of even that equipment was questioned. In reality, however, the coalition troops have learned that the Iraqis have an adequate number of night vision surveillance systems and targeting sights even at the squadron level and they know how to properly use this equipment. A particular point of concern [for the coalition] is the fact that most Iraqi night vision systems captured by the coalition are the latest models manufactured in the US and Japan. After analyzing the origins of this equipment the US begun talking about the "Syrian connection". In this regard, the US military experts have analyzed Syria`s weapons imports for the past two years and have concluded that in the future fighting [in Iraq] the coalition troops may have to deal with the latest Russian-made anti-tank systems, latest radars and radio reconnaissance systems resistant to the effects electronic counter measures.

In the same area [An-Najaf] a coalition checkpoint manned by the US Marines was attacked by a suicide bomber - an Iraqi soldier - who detonated a passenger car loaded with explosives next to the US troops. At least 5 of them were killed.

In a closed radio address to the coalition troops the coalition command asked the soldiers to show "patience and restrain" and "not to let loose their emotions and feelings of anger" [Reverse-translated from Russian] The radio address was recorded following an incident in the area of Umm Qasr when, in plain view of the locals, British soldiers executed two Iraqis after finding a submachine-gun in their house; and after a US attack helicopter returning from a combat mission opened cannon fire on a passenger car and its occupants. It was announced [by the coalition] that both of these incidents will be investigated. However, military psychologists believe that these incidents are the result of the troops being subjected to enormous stress; psychologists say that these soldiers require medical treatment.

Near Basra the British forces have completely abandoned offensive operations and switched to positional warfare. Isolated attacks continue in the airport area - still not under full British control - and on the Fao peninsula where the Iraqis continue to hold a large staging area.

According to the British field commanders, the troops are extremely exhausted and are in dare need of rest and reinforcements. Three British soldiers went missing and two more were wounded in this area during the past 24 hours.

A supply convoy of the 3rd Motorized Infantry Division was ambushed last night to the south of An-Nasiriya. In the course of the attack 10 fuel trucks were destroyed, one escorting APC was hit, 8 troops were wounded and 1 is missing. So far it is not known who was behind the attack: the Iraqi army combat reconnaissance units or the partisans operating in this area.

Analysis of the information coming from the combat zone shows a rapid decline in the [coalition`s] contacts with the media and increasing restrictions on all information except for the official reports. For example, since yesterday morning all phone and Internet lines used by the coalition troops to maintain contact with relatives in the US and Europe have been shut down at the division level and below. Not only does this indicate that the coalition command is trying to change the course of the information war, but this also points to a possible upcoming massive coalition attack against the Iraqi forces and an attempt on the part of the [coalition] commanders to prevent any information leaks.

[Russian] analysts believe that all the talk about a "two-week timeout" in the war is nothing more than a disinformation attempt by the coalition. Forces and equipment currently available to the coalition will be sufficient for at least 1-2 weeks of active combat; this is comparable to the duration of a major combat operation. It is likely that such an operation may take place during the next day in the area of Karabela. Goals of this operations have already been discussed in previous reports.

At the same time the coalition is already planning a new large-scale operation that will utilize the new forces currently being deployed to the region. Based on our [Russian] intelligence and that of our allies [Russian] military experts believe that this large-scale operation will be launched from the general vicinity of Karabela and will develop into a wide maneuver around Baghdad from the west ending in the area of the Tartar lake east of Al-Hadid (or east of the Tartar lake at Samarrah). From this point a part of the force will continue advancing toward Saddam Hussein`s home town of Tikrit and from there it will turn toward Baghdad from the north through Samarrah and Baahkuba; meanwhile the rest of the [coalition] force will strike the rears of the Iraqi forces fighting in the north near Kirkuk and Mosul. Such an operation would require up to 60,000 troops, no less than 300 tanks and 200 helicopters. It is believed that such forces can be put together by April 15 and by April 18 they should be ready to attack.

Certain available information points to a serious conflict between the coalition command and the US political and military leadership. The [US] Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld - the main planner and lobbyist of the military operation against Iraq - accuses the coalition command and Gen. Tommy Franks personally of being passive and indecisive, which [in Rumsfeld`s opinion] led to the lengthening of the conflict and the current dead end situation. In his turn Franks in front of his subordinates calls the Secretary of Defense the "old blabbermouth" and an "adventurist" who dragged the army into the war on the most unfavorable terms possible. However, most [US military] officers believe that both military leaders are responsible for the coalition`s military failures. Rumsfeld allowed gross errors during the planning of forces and equipment required for the war, while Franks did not show enough strength to get the right forces and the right training for the troops in this campaign and, in essence, surrendered to the whims of the politicians...

It is entirely possible that the future of this war will see the departure of one of these two commanders. Some reports suggest that Rumsfeld has already proposed to President Bush a change in the coalition command. However, Bush declined this proposal calling it untimely and damaging to the morale of the troops and that of the American people.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-30-03, translated by Venik)

[ulfur]

March 31, 2003, 1828hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - During the night of March 30-31 the situation on the US-Iraqi front became increasingly more critical. All indications are that the coalition has launched a new attack.

Following a three-hour-long artillery barrage and several nighttime aviation strikes the coalition forces came in contact with the Iraqi troops near Karabela and attempted to move around the Iraqi defenses from the east.

For now the coalition is limiting its actions to probing the forward layer of the Iraqi defenses, attempting to assess its density and organization after nearly five days of artillery and aerial bombardment. There have been no reports of any coalition breaks through the Iraqi defenses in this area. At the same time morning radio intercepts uncovered a large US military convoy moving around the Razzaza Lake. At the moment it is unclear whether the purpose of this movement is to get to the town of Ar-Ramdia or a wider maneuver leading to the town of Al-Falludja.

Another [coalition] convoy numbering up to 100 combat vehicles was seen near the town of Al-Hillah moving in the southeaster direction 30 kilometers from the strategic Baghdad-Basra highway. Given there is no Iraqi resistance this coalition force will be able to reach the highway by today’s night. So far there were no reports of any losses in this area.

The US forces resumed attacking Iraqi defenses near An-Najaf. The US group of force in this area has been reinforced with at least three reserve Marine battalions and now Americans are trying once again to capture this key town. According to the US intelligence Iraqi defenses in this area number up to 3,000 troops aided by around 1,500 volunteers and [Ba’ath] party activists. The Iraqis here are armed with around 30 T-55 and T-62 tanks, up to four artillery batteries and more than 300 various anti-tank weapons. The town is being stormed by the elements of the 1st Marine Division numbering up to 6,000 troops assisted by 80 tanks and 60 artillery systems. Additionally, aerial support is provided by up to 40 helicopters. So far the Americans were unable to push the enemy. Early today morning an American tank was destroyed near An-Najaf. At least two of its crew were killed.

Intensive exchange of fire is continuing in the vicinity of An-Nasiriya. The US Marines have so far been unable to side nth staging area they captured seven days ago on the left bank of Euphrates. The bridge connecting this staging area with the main coalition forces is nearly destroyed and is under constant fire from the Iraqi defenses located in the riverside city blocks. This is the reason why the [coalition] troops holding the staging area can only be reinforced by small and lightly-armed units and only during nighttime. During the past night alone the Marines holding the staging area sustained 2 killed and 5 wounded.

The situation [for the coalition] is complicated by the fact that the residential blocks occupied by the defending Iraqis come to the very edge of the river, giving a significant advantage to the defenders who control the river and all approaches to the river. Currently the coalition artillery and aviation is methodically destroying these blocks in an attempt to push the Iraqis away from the shoreline.

Intercepted radio communications indicate that the Marines engineering units are ordered to build a pontoon crossing up the stream from An-Nasiriya and move up to three battalions of Marines and troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the left bank of the Euphrates for a future strike in the rear of the An-Nasiriya garrison. The coalition command would have been ready to bypass other defended crossings on the Euphrates if it wasn’t for one problem: the entire group of forces has only two pontoon units. Any new pontoon units will arrive not sooner than in mid-April.

A standoff between the Basra garrison and the British marine infantry is continuing in the area of Basra. Using localized attacks the British are attempting to “lean” on Basra as closely as possible and to tighten the blockade, but so far they were unsuccessful. Thus, during the last night the British attempted to take the town of Al-Hasib located 7 kilometers southeast of Basra. The British plan was to reach the Al-Arab River and to slice the local Iraqi defenses in half, separating Basra from the defending Iraqi forces on the Fao peninsula. Up to a battalion of the British marine infantry supported by armored vehicles entered the town of Al-Hasib from south but in less than an hour they were stopped by Iraqi fire and requested aviation and artillery support.

Fighting for the control of the town is continuing. At least two British soldiers were killed and three were wounded in this battle. One British armored personnel carrier was destroyed. British commanders are reporting killing 50 Iraqis and capturing 10. In the area of the As-Zubair River port, which was declared to be under full coalition control just a week ago, a British patrol boat was attacked. The boat was carrying its crew and a marine infantry unit. As the result of the attack at least 4 British soldiers were killed and 9 were wounded.

The official coalition losses are, to put it mildly, “falling behind” the actual figures. The 57 dead acknowledged by the coalition command reflect losses as of the morning of March 26. This information was provided to a BBC correspondent by one of the top medical officials at a field hospital in Al Kuwait during a confidential conversation. “We have standing orders to acknowledge only those fatalities that have been delivered to the hospital, identified and prepared to be sent back home. The identification process and the required standard embalming takes some time – occasionally up to several days. But only the command knows how many casualties we sustained today and you will learn about it in about three days…” [Reverse-translated from Russian] This conversation was taped by the journalist and sent to the editor via a cellular phone network.

Based on the radio intercepts and internal information networks of the US field hospitals as of this morning the coalition losses include no less than 100 killed US servicemen and at least 35 dead British soldiers. Additionally, some 22 American and 11 British soldiers are officially considered to be missing in action and the whereabouts of another 400 servicemen are being established. The number of wounded has exceeded 480 people.

US experts at the coalition command headquarters studied the cases of destroyed and damaged M1A2 tanks and various APCs. The conclusion was that without a doubt the Iraqis do possess modern anti-tank weapons but so far use them on a “very limited scale.” Only three tanks have been hit by guided weapons which destroyed these tanks with the first hit. The rest of the tanks were destroyed with more standard weapons. Some of the most common causes [of destroyed armor] include: anti-tank guns (about 40% of all hits), man-portable rocket-propelled grenade launchers (25% of hits), and landmines (25% of hits). Effectiveness of anti-tank artillery has been particularly high. “Impacts by high-velocity projectiles do not always destroy the tank and its crew. However, in 90% of all cases the tank is disabled and the crew is forced to abandon the tank on the battlefield…” – says the report that was distributed to the commanders of the forward units for analysis.

Russian military analysts are advising the Iraqi military command against excessive optimism. There is no question that the US “blitzkrieg” failed to take control of Iraq and to destroy its army. It is clear that the Americans got bogged down in Iraq and the military campaign hit a snag. However, the Iraqi command is now in danger of underestimating the enemy. For now there is no reason to question the resolve of the Americans and their determination to reach the set goal – complete occupation of Iraq.

In reality, despite of some obvious miscalculations and errors of the coalition’s high command, the [coalition] troops that have entered Iraq maintain high combat readiness and are willing to fight. The losses sustained during the past 12 days of fighting, although delivering a painful blow to the pride and striking the public opinion, are entirely insignificant militarily speaking. The initiative in the war remains firmly in the hands of the coalition. Under such circumstances Iraqi announcements of a swift victory over the enemy will only confuse its own troops and the Iraq’s population and, as the result, may lead to demoralization and a reduced defensive potential…

Russian military analysts believe that the critical for the US duration of the war would be over 90 days provided that during that time the coalition will sustain over 1,000 killed. Under such circumstances a serious political crisis in the US and in the world will be unavoidable.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-31-03, translated by Venik)